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Things I'm Seeing That Make Me Think the Economy Is Changing · Making Everyday Magic: The Podcast

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I am not a guru.
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I am not a money person and I am not an economist.
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I am a mom who is noticing things.
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Things that it feels like no one is talking about.
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Things that I feel like we should be sharing.
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Welcome back to Making Everyday Magic. My name is Shanna.
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If you are new here, we're a homeschooling family of four.
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We are entering our 10th year of homeschooling, and today
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I want to talk with you about the red flags, the concerns,
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the things that are showing me and telling me
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that we are entering a recession if we aren't already
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in a recession.
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Before we go any further, please scroll down,
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hit the big red subscribe button, turn on that bell
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for notifications and give this video a thumbs up.
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As always,
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you can find me write and down in the comments
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or over on Instagram at Making Everyday Magic.
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So in classic fashion in recent times,
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there are big things happening and it feels like a whole.
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We just aren't talking about them.
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It feels very Twilight zone.
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It makes you feel a little crazy, like everybody isn't seeing the same things.
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Which is why today I want to share with you
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I have an entire list that I have been making
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because you know how once you start noticing
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something, you can't stop noticing the thing.
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So I have an entire list on my post-it note that I'm going to share with you
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of things that tell me the economic climate is changing, has changed,
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and will be probably honestly, harder to weather coming up soon.
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But I'm also going to tell you what I think
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is going to happen based on what I'm seeing,
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because I think there's a few things that are definitely going to shift now.
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I don't watch the stock market, I don't keep up with all the latest news.
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And this isn't about politics or the fed interest rate.
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This isn't about those things.
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These are just patterns that I am noticing,
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things that are different, things that are out of the norm.
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Things that for me, and if I'm paying attention,
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give me pause, give me
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a second thought, make me
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have concern for what will surely be coming up
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soon, in the near future for us, kind of financially.
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So again, not claiming that I'm an expert, not claiming to know
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everything, but definitely a few things that I have noticed.
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So something that I notice and these are in no particular order.
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They're just the list. I made them all my post-it note.
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Something that I noticed is we actually recently went and visited
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Grandma and Grandpa and Grandma and grandpa
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live in San Antonio, and in San Antonio there's this wonderful area
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called the Riverwalk.
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And the Riverwalk is the tourist destination of the entire,
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like, Texas Hill Country. Okay.
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So it is like a big deal. It's gorgeous.
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It's cute, it's wonderful. Very historic.
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Tons of restaurants, novelty restaurants, hotels.
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It's near the convention center. It's like a big deal.
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Okay. Right by the mall.
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Huge deal. Right by the Alamo.
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We had gone to the zoo, which is another one
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I'm going to get to in a minute.
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We had gone to the zoo and we had a gift
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card, a credit, and the kids really wanted to eat at Rainforest Cafe.
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And they love the San Antonio Riverwalk Rainforest Cafe.
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So we being a party of six on a Sunday afternoon,
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a gorgeous, glorious sunny day in June, we were like, okay, we're going to do it.
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We're going to see if we can make it happen.
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We go, we park, we walk past Alamo Plaza.
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Alappuzha is empty,
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but on a Sunday in the summer
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and I'm talking major tourist destination, we make it over to the Riverwalk.
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We go over, we go to Rainforest Cafe.
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Immediate seating on a Sunday afternoon at a novelty restaurant
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at a tourist location, immediate seating for a party of six
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on a Sunday afternoon at like, get out of church time 1230 1:00.
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The San Antonio Riverwalk was dead like vacant.
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There was nobody there.
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If you've ever been, then you know that it is.
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Wall to wall, shoulder to shoulder.
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You can't take a stroller.
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You're always scared some stranger is going to bump you into the river.
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There's always like cadets from Air Force and things all over the place.
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Nothing. Nada. No one.
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It was so empty.
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I took pictures because I was like, something is happening.
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Like I texted people I know because it was so wild to me.
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Now, something else that I am noticing.
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I went to my my youngest.
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We went to the Houston Zoo the day before for the July or so.
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It was like the second because the third would be like
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the holiday observed for the 4th of July.
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So we went on the Thursday and summer.
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We didn't see a single field trip
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like they had zoo camps going on, but not a single field trip.
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And then when we went to leave a couple hours after they had opened,
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one thing that the Houston Zoo is amazing and it's wonderful.
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But one thing about the Houston Zoo is that they have nowhere near enough
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parking for what they need.
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And so people are always circling,
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and it's looping the block and following you and parking illegally.
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There were a whole rows of parking spots open
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on a holiday week in the summer,
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which to me is really wild.
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On a day when it was pretty outside and not raining.
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Really, really wild.
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Disney wait times Disney wait times have been very, very low.
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Like uncommonly low for this time of year.
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And they said, oh, it's because people are watching the World Cup.
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It was because this was because that. No it's not.
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Wait times are down. How do I know this? Disney is feeling the pressure.
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How do I know that Disney is feeling the pressure?
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They are putting out ticket deals for the summer.
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They just reinstituted in Disneyland the after 5 p.m.
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ticket, which is sold at a significant discount.
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They would not be doing that
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if they were booked up, if they were full, if they had the sales to drive
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the volume, they are putting out ticket deals in summer.
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Unheard of, unheard of concerts.
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Concerts are being canceled across the country
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because the seats are going unsold, the seats are going unsold.
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And it is a multifold problem, right?
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Since the Ticketmaster, it's the fees, it's the predatory nature of the industry,
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but it's also a sign that people don't have that disposable income
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or they don't feel comfortable spending that disposable
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income on something that is so incredibly high price.
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Now, high prices across the board, prices have gotten out of hand.
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Grocery stores, the zoo, the Houston Zoo.
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Now you can get a one day ticket for $51.
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I have so much feeling about this.
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Okay, because one, I love our zoo, but that's absurd.
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Just because you can charge it does not mean you should,
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and you are instantly pricing out people who need access to zoos and museums.
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And I have a lot of feelings about that.
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And that's going to come back when I talk about the effects of these changes.
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Okay. Something that we have been doing.
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Both of our cars have well over 100,000 miles.
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We are knocking on 150, and we know that we are going to need to replace them
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minus ten years old.
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My husband's is like 15 years old.
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And so we have been watching because there's been several times
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when it's like, oh, paying attention.
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We know we're going to need to buy a car and we want to be prepared
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when the right time comes
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instead of kind of kind of being forced to make that decision for us.
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And so we have been paying attention. We have been tracking inventories.
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We've been tracking costs and rates.
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Interest rates are coming down to the interest rates
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on cars are finally, I'm seeing zero percents again,
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which I hadn't seen for a really long time.
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Not only that, inventory is on the lots.
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So now they are putting cars back out.
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You know, for a little while there was no inventory on lots at all, and
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they were selling everything above MSRP the same way the housing market was going.
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And so this is an indicator to me
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that that spending is slowing down, that we are entering a recession.
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And that takes me right into home sales homes.
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We're selling the same way now.
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We've got kind of like a market adjustment where like our property taxes
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came down wildly, wildly where we are in our new house.
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But I am seeing things.
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I saw a real from a guy who put out in Galveston,
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which is close to us, where right now, the rate that the houses are selling,
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the number of homes on the market equates to like an 18 month supply.
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And that's if nothing new goes on market, which is really, really crazy to me.
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So that is definitely shifting back
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to people who are not wanting to spend their money.
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They're not wanting to make the changes.
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They're not willing to pay the exorbitant prices with that.
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Travel deals.
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Travel deals have always been cyclical in that
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when kids are in school, you can get a great deals
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and it kind of always has followed the same kind of rhythm.
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Until Covid.
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Now, after Covid, people didn't care about taking their kids in and out of school.
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Everybody was like, YOLO, we got to live.
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Once we got to go spend our money, we got to go do fun stuff.
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It was all about prioritizing
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those experiences, which I do think it should be,
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but because of that, it really impacted those deals
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and the deals have come off the table, but they are coming back.
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So I am seeing the cyclical patterns being being kind of reintroduced
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into the mainstream.
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So you're seeing deals
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when you would expect to see deals and again, tracking things I want to do,
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I do that so that I know the best time to buy,
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and I do that so that I know the best time to save the most amount of money.
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And I do that so that I know what's going to work for us,
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because we have a travel system where we can travel pretty much any time.
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But in doing so,
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I can tell you that those deals
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are starting to fall back into the traditional patterns.
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Summer camps.
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Summer camps this year have gone unsold, so
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it nothing is selling out as far as summer camps go.
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And that is not normal.
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Normally they're all sold out in like April
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and people are scrambling, scrambling, scrambling.
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People are not paying summer camps.
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And again, summer camps are wildly expensive.
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It's such a luxury to be able to send your child
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to a place where you are paying hundreds and hundreds of dollars every week
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to make sure that they are cared for and entertained.
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It is such a high cost.
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Hi, hi.
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High cost item that I think people are realizing that it just isn't worth it.
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It's worth it to try to get a couple people together and
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and field out child care, or sending in with grandpa or,
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you know, people are staying home to watch their own kids.
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It summer camps are going unfilled.
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I got a deal because in Houston this is freaking herd of my kids
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took swimming lessons from like four months old until like ten.
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They took like weekly swimming lessons.
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And what we did, because it's Houston, there are we're close to the beach,
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there are pools everywhere, and it is hot most of the year.
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So in Houston, we would always pick up after Labor Day
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because again, we have that flexible schedule and then go through
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like spring break because
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I am spring break into summer, I'm not going near a swim school.
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No thank you not no way. Not know how.
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Now they are more prevalent than they used to be, but the one that my kids went
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to sent me a flier and they said that they are
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accepting offers because they have camps that are completely unsold.
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And so what they're going to do is they're just trying to get bodies in the place
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because they have weeks that are empty in summer in Houston for an indoor pool.
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Below is my mind swim classes I
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oh, it is so crazy to me now.
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Something I have noticed personally is that people are not committing
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signing up for spending money on homeschool extras.
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You guys know I host a science class and this year it took a very long time
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to get it full because people just aren't wanting to commit.
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They're not
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wanting to commit to the schedule, and they're not wanting to commit to the
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to the cost of it.
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And I think more people are sending their kids back to school,
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or at least they want to keep an option to send their kids back to school.
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And I think that is because of the economy now a much darker turn in something
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I am seeing.
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Guys, I am in a major city, but there are a lot more domestic situations happening.
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I'm seeing a lot more,
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you know, one parent kind of abandoning the family and the moms
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groups and a lot more Swat situations where people are making very,
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very permanent decisions
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for everyone in their home based on their economic situation.
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So it is dark and it is scary.
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And these are all of the reasons why I think that we are rapidly approaching
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a situation that is going to be very, very negative for most.
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But here is what I think is going to happen.
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Not only are there travel deals going to come back,
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that's going to be really awesome, I think.
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I don't know if you guys know this or if you've experienced this, but for me,
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since Covid started, you no longer can go.
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I used to be able to go grocery shopping like 10 a.m.
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on a Tuesday, and it was a ghost town.
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The grocery store is always busy now, always all the time,
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and so I am hoping that
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those start to go back to normal, because that would be awesome
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if I could grocery shop without a million people there.
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Okay, so I do expect those travel deals to return as well.
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Something that I think is going to go by the wayside is the specialty things.
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So I think doggie daycares, the high end doggie fresh food,
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I think those are going to go because if we can't all eat,
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the dog's not eating special food, you know what I'm saying?
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So I think doggy daycare, doggie food, those
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those pet fanciness, I think that's going to go.
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I also think that kids sports and little league
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things are going to swing back into being not only affordable,
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but a reasonable schedule, because I just don't think
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people can commit at the level they're wanting us to commit.
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And I think, you know, a lot of the first things that are going to go
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are going to be those high price items.
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So maybe the kid who's really, really good at soccer
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chooses YMCA this season instead of travel soccer.
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I don't know, I think that's going to happen.
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I think as scape rooms and those kind of like really high cost
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one hour entertainment things, I think those are going to go.
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They are one of the things that I honestly think
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is kind of like a, a temporary thing.
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I think they've lasted longer than I ever expected them to, because I do think
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that the novelty wears off, especially because it is,
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you know, if you're an escape room
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and you've got four rooms, those four rooms are kind of set
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until you can, you know, it's a big investment
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to get those things rolled over.
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But I think people just are not going to spend the money because like,
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I know for my family it is easily, you know, 150, 100, 200
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bucks for an hour's worth of entertainment.
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And I could spend that very, very differently.
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I think movies at movie theaters and bowling, things like that,
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where it is like a single use facility, those prices are going to come down.
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You can.
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Have you paid to go to a movie recently?
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I missed the dollar movie from when I was little
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where you could really go for like five bucks and like live at large.
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No, no, now I mean 30 bucks for a movie.
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No, no. And same thing with bowling.
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Bullying is easily hundreds of dollars roller skating, things like that.
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It's no longer the low cost fund that it used to be.
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And I think those things are going to come down, I really do.
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I think car prices and home prices are also going to come down.
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I don't think they'll be what they were, but they're going to come down.
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I think the cost of zoos and museums is going to come down.
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I feel like everybody kind of found out that they could charge a ton of money,
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and then they did, and nobody took into account if they should.
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So I think grocery prices, zoo tickets, museum things, all of those
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I think are going to come down
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because attendance is going to wane when people cannot afford it.
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The same thing that we're going to see happening with Disney
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and theme parks and things like that, because your choice is to lower
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costs to get people in, sit there empty or shutter entirely.
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And I think a lot of places are going to come back
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into the realm of being affordable,
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because so many have exceeded the threshold of what makes sense
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now, the really dark things that I think we're going to see.
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Not that it's dark, not that it's bad, but I think
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moms are going to be going back to work.
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That second parent, we've had the luxury of having a parent at home.
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I think those people are going to be going
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more into the workforce and whether that is side hustles.
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But more than likely, I think it's going to be a 9 to 5 brick and mortar.
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So I think that is definitely going to be the case.
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And as a result of that, I think the homeschool movement
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is going to shrink because I think there will be more kids
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put back in school because it is childcare and because it is already paid for.
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I also think that the divorce rate is going to spike because,
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you know, financial stress is a leading cause of divorce, and these are
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all things that are going to put a lot of stress, a lot of change,
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a lot of movement is going to be had in families and in homes.
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So this is what I think is going to be happening.
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I think we might even see more multigenerational family dwellings
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because of the cost.
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The cost is really crazy right now, and we've got shrinks
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and other things I've noticed is like, even like subscriptions.
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So like my podcast service was like 7.99 a month
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and it jumped up to 12.99, like you're it's almost double.
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You're telling me it's almost double is how much your costs went up.
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Same thing with like Microsoft subscriptions.
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All of the things where it's like it didn't go up, you know, 10%, 20%.
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It went up like 80% or 100%.
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So I think a lot of these situations are going to come back down,
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obviously not to where they were,
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but I think costs are going to kind of get a little bit more reasonable.
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And that's going to be because everybody's in a hard place,
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which isn't great, and it's not something that I want to see.
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And again, I'm not an economist.
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I'm not somebody who understands the intricacies of all of this
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or inflation or how we got here or how we're going to get out.
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I'm not saying any of that.
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What I'm saying is this is what I'm seeing,
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and this is what I think is going to happen,
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because these are the things that I think are just genuinely unsustainable.
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So I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts are.
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I would love to hear.
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Have you noticed that daycares aren't filling up?
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Have you noticed that that swim classes are empty and camps haven't sold out?
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What are you seeing as a parent?
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Are there less things at, you know, maybe a resale shop
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because people are wearing them longer?
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Are there less deals on kids clothes?
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More deals on kids clothes?
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What are you seeing out in the world with your own eyes that let you,
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as the person who does have your thumb
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on the pulse of the real world because you're out in it every day?
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What are you seeing?
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What are we not talking about that we should be talking about?
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Because if we can help prep ourselves, we will be ready for whatever
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snacks at least slightly ready for whatever's next.
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Any questions? Comments concerns guys? Let me know.
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Thank you for hanging out with me.
17:51
As always, please scroll down.
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Hit that big red subscribe button,
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turn on the bell for notifications and give this video a thumbs up.
17:56
As always, you can find me down in the comments
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or over on Instagram at Making Everyday Magic.
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Please be sure to let me know!
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Homeschool world grocery store anywhere.
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What are you seeing that's letting you know that things are changing,
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good or bad?
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Very very curious to continue this conversation.