Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Find the Edge | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/10/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Find the Edge | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks. The black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Now, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: Nice, now, hold on, hold on, let me but it
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you Toadstool Sports, Friday, July tenth,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: one and one On the show, yesterday we won with
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Brewers. We lost on another Texas Rangers under
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: what do you want me to tell you?
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Man?
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: I have nothing to say about that. Readebt Mers sucks.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: I have nothing else to say. Yeah, whatever, dirty sock?
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: What's up? I can't talk, I don't know what. I
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: don't know how I'm gonna do this show whatever. Baseball?
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: First game up, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh. We have new series starting
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: for the weekend here. Pittsburgh lost the last two games
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: against the Braves. They're staying at home. Probably a big
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: series for both teams here, maybe a little bit bigger
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh. Milwaukee did just win four out of five
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: against St. Louis because there was a makeup game in there.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: This game looks like it does actually favor Pittsburgh in
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching here. Milwaukee used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: They do have the better bullpen. Pittsburgh used five. I
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: think is what that is. Pittsburgh is not a good bullpen.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: They're twenty second arranged by Whip, not very good at all. Really,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee seventh, their bullpen ERA is pretty good. I think
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: they're better than seventh. Actually, Milwaukee is ninth in offense.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh does have the advantage there. They're number two based
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: on ops. Milwaukee's going with Brandon Sprout, who I think
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: is clearly the lesser of these two pitchers here. Five
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: point one three ERA, one point three seven Whip. I
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: don't think he's as bad as his numbers look though,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Like I think I keep saying, I think he has
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: some talent, Like there's time for him to make improvements here.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: He's not that bad on the road. Four point one
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: nine Roady ra still. I mean, I don't know. I mean,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: he's not exactly great recently though he actually did have
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: a pretty decent June. Didn't make it past four innings
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: in his last outing. I think he was just really
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: inefficient with his pitches at Arizona, but he did limit
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: the damage still, although his walk number was a little
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: bit questionable there. He's got a low hit rate. Actually
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: has a high strikeout rate too, but his walk number
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: is the problem. He walks too many guys. His numbers
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, they actually have never even seen him before,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: so it makes him a little bit difficult to figure
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: out because that might be a little bit of an
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: advantage to him. He might actually pitch better than expect
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: against the lineup that hasn't seen him. Pittsburgh is a
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: very dangerous offense at home though, and Pittsburgh is going
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: with Braxton Ashcraft, who is definitely the more proven pitcher
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: at this point and is pitching well this season three
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: point two four ERA, one point one whip. He's a
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home three point one to nine
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He's pitching well recently. He had one kind
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: of bat outing at Philadelphia in here, but they hit
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: a bunch of home runs off him. It's kind of fluky.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate has been pretty high recently. He does
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: have a high strikeout rate on the season, low hit rate,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: and low walk rate, and all of his numbers look
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: pretty good across the board here against Milwaukee, they only
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: have eight at bats against him. They have seven hitters
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: who have faced him. They're one for eight. Yellick is
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: the only hit that they have off him, a single.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: They have one strikeout, no walks, one twenty five average,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: obviously two fifty ops. I'm gonna lean to Pittsburgh in
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: the first here. I don't like their bullpen. I think
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: they have the advantage of the starting pitching. The money
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: is going the other way. The money's backing Milwaukee. Fifty
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets on Pittsburgh, seventy percent of the
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: cash on Milwaukee. I don't get. I don't like that.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, you'd think that the public would back Milwaukee
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: here because, oh my god, even though they like Pittsburgh's offense,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's the better record, and they're not really considered to
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: be a bad offense because they're not, and you're getting
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee as an underdog here. I'm kind of surprised that
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: the public is not leaning that way in this game.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh pretty short price on them at about minus one
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: twenty something, although presumably first five you're gonna have to
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: pay a higher price for it because everybody knows that
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's bullpen is a big disadvantage here. But yeah, I
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: think Pittsburgh first five makes the most sense in that one.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: All right, Philadelphia and Detroit. Detroit swept the A's. They've
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: won five in a row, and now they're still staying
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: at home here. We don't really have any return home
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: spots today. Like usually there are a bunch of good
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: return home spots to look at on Friday. That's not
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: the case today, though. Philadelphia will be traveling in from
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati here. Not really a big deal. They won the
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: series against Cincinnati. I don't really see, you know, any
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: sort of motivational edge here or anything like this. Philadelphia
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: used two relief pitchers yesterday. Detroit used two as well.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: These are two like middle of the road bullpen's Detroit seventeenth.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia a bit worse than that, actually a twentieth. Their
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: era is definitely worse. So I'll give Detroit a little
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: bit of a bullpen advantage there. Hitting wise, neither team
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: has been terrific. Philadelphia twenty second Detroit nineteenth. Detroit does
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: play better at home, though. Aaron Nola is getting the
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: start for Philadelphi. Here, we have a matchup of two
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: veteran pitchers who may not be really good at this point. Nola,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: you know, he's really struggling to try to bounce back
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: from the injuries that he's had recently. He's got a
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: five point eight seven e RA one point four to
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: six whip. He is better on the road than he
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: is at home five point two Roadyra is still not good.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: He bitched really well on his last start at Kansas City,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: so maybe he's kind of trending in the right direction here.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: He's had more good at recent starts than bad, I guess,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: I would say, or at least kind of decent starts recently.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is still way too high, but he's
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: actually he's not walking too many guys. His strikeout rate
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: is actually okay, like it's more than one per inning,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: so he is actually fooling some batteris here. His home
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: run rate is quite high though, which is not good.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: So you know, he's basically too hittable. That's his problem.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Detroit has not hit him well in the past thirty
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: two at bats eleven strikeouts, two walks, one eighty eight
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: average five seventeen ops, so he may actually do okay here.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: He might draw a good match up here. He's going
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: up against Jack Flaherty, who I'm not happy with right
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: now because he beat one of my plays the other day.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: He's still not good four point six ERA, one point
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: four or five whip. He is not as good at
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: home either, four point nine to one homey RA, So Nola,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: you know, is kind of in the better of the
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: home road splits here, though his ERA is still worse
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: than his road RA is still worse than Flaherty's home.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: The IRA is Flaherty has not given up a run
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: over his last two starts, although he's still not going
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: deep into these outings, but he has been better recently,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: so he is in pretty good for him right now.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: I think I faded him with Texas in that last game,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: and he shut Texas out, so that's just great unless
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: I had an under. I don't think I had an
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: under in that one, because that would have been a win,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: one of the rare underwins that I would have had recently. Flaherty,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, he does have a reasonably low hit rate
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: here is walk rate is too high. His strike out
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: rate is actually really high, So yeah, Flaherty is actually
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: striking a bunch of guys out right now, so it
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: seems like he does have his stuff. At least. Numbers
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: against Philadelphia are actually really good. He dominates Kyle Schwarber,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: even though Schwarber has a home run off and he's
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: two for twenty six. They have fifty nine at bats
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: against him, twenty strikeouts, twelve walks, though, which is not
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: good for Flaherty. One oh two average though four ninety
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: one ops. That's pretty good. I mean, it kind of
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: sounds insane, but this game almost kind of seems like
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: an under. I mean, it's two bitches that I don't
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: really like, and I think they're pretty fadable. Usually totals
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: at nine, you know, which does indicate the oddsmakers don't
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: really think this is gonna be a low scoring game.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: But the starting pitching, you know, I don't really I
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: don't necessarily hate the bullpens with I guess the first
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: five under is definitely an option here too, if you
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: want to just focus on maybe some undervalues starting pitching here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Possibly the money's coming in on the over though, sixty
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: three percent of the tickets ninety one percent of the
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: cash on the O over. But I don't know. I mean,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: this game looks a little bit more like an under
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: to me than an over. But I don't have a
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: strong opinion here. Detroit's favored at like minus one twenty five,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of the tickets on them, seventy one
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Philly, So the money is
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: coming in and backing Philly with Nola, which seems kind
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: of insane to me too. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: Flaherty is in better form right now. Nola had one
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: really good start, but Flaherty has had multiple good starts
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: in a row pretty much, so I don't know, or
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: multiple good ones recently. At least do what you want
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: with all that info, but I don't have a good
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: read on that game at all. This next game almost
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: made the cut for me. Yankees in Washington, Washington, they're
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: staying at home. They just beat Houston. The Yankees are
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: coming in from Tampa Bay and they just split the
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: series with Tampa Bay. I honestly have no idea how
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: the Yankees beat Rasmussen yesterday with a bullpen game. Rasmussen
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: was way off in the game yesterday. I was pretty
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: surprised that the Yankees won that game as easily as
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: they did. That would not have been something that I
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: would have been correct about yesterday. But this game, I mean,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: you could probably tell based on the high total in
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching match up here that I like the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: over in this one. The Yankees used basically their entire
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday because it was a bullpen game, So that's
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: not good as far as their bullpen is concerned. Although
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: like their two best relievers didn't come into the game,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: but that's still not good. Washington was off yesterday though,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: so Washington they're staying at home after beating Houston, but
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: they were one of the I think there were like
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: four or maybe six teams that didn't play yesterday. Washington
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: was one of those. So Washington actually has a rest
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: advantage here plus a travel edge. But the Yankees, even
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: though they burned out their whole bullpen, there's still the
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: best bullpenny ray and the ranked third and bullpen whip.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Washington is twenty sixth, So even with the burned out bullpen.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: I think the Yankees may still have a bullpen advantage here.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Hitting wise, Washington's been better at third. Yankees are tied
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: in seventh with the Twins, but these are both obviously
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: really capable offenses. The Yankees bullpen is probably the best
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: pitching that you're gonna get in this game, but they're
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: all used up, so that kind of that does kind
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: of negate that to me a bit. And the Yankees
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: are going with Ryan Weathers, who is a pretty mediocre
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: pitcher four point twenty nine ERA one point two to
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: five whip. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: four point six to four road. Ray has a bitch
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: well recently. His last two starts are both bad. They
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: were both short outings he got hurt by his fielding
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: and the one against Detroit but he still wasn't good.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Followed that up with a bad start against Minnesota. Those
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: are actually both at home, but he is still worse
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: on the road. He does have some decent numbers here though,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: if you look at his overall numbers, these are really
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: not bad. His hit rate is pretty reasonable, walk rate
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: is pretty low, strike got rate is high, So if
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: you dig into those numbers there, He's really not that bad,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: but he struggled a little bit against Washington. They have
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: a three twenty average off him in seven to seventy
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: ops and twenty five at bats two to one strike
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, so I don't think this is an
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: ideal matchup for him really, And Washington has Carson Pomquist
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: listed as the starter, but I believe they are using
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: him as an opener he doesn't even have good numbers,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: and then they're gonna go with Zach Lttel, I'm pretty
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: sure is what they're doing here. I might be wrong
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: about that, but if you're gonna play this game again,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: what I would do is I would pick Weathers must
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: start on the Yankee side, although it seems like he's
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: almost definitely going to and then on the other side,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I would not specify Washington starting pitcher because it's almost
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: definitive that it's going to be either Lttel or Pomquist opening,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: and then Latel coming in behind him. I'm almost positive
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: that's going to be the case. Zach Littel would be
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: next up for them because he last pitched on the fourth,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: so I'm pretty sure that puts him in line to start,
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: he's not good. He's got a five point zero two
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: ERA one point three to one whip. I guess isn't
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: that bad. But he's not good. He did bitch well
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh here at home last time, which is interesting
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: because that's not an easy thing to do. And he's
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: actually been fairly good three starts in a row, believe
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: it or not. But he's not good. I mean, his
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: hit rates a little bit high, as walk rate is
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: not too bad. I mean, that's one thing that he's
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: good at, is not walking people. But he's always way
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: too hittable. He doesn't strike anybody out. His strikeout rates
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: really bad. His home run rate is really bad. He
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: has one of the highest home run rates in baseball.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: He's also way worse at home five point six to
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: one home ERA, so he's not in the better of
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: his home roads. What's here? Despite what we saw from
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: him last time out against Pittsburgh, I'm not gonna quite
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: get there with this one. But yeah, I think over
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: is the right way to play this game. The total
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: is really high for a reason. It's at ten. Both
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: offenses could definitely do damage here. The money seems to
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: agree with that. Fifty four percent of tickets, eighty three
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on over. The money's back in Washington,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: for whatever that's worth. I think that's more of a
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: value play. Probably just Oh, the Yankees probably shouldn't be
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: minus one sixty on the road against Washington, but Weathers
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: is still better than whatever this pitching set up. Washington
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: is going with this, and Washington right now at Kate
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: Cavali is suspended, so he's missing one of his starts
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: due to that fiasco with the Red Sox. Uh seventy
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: two percent of the tickets around the Yankees, sixty percent
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Washington. I would not want to
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: back Washington here. You could, I guess argue maybe Yankees
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: let down Spot after they beat Tampa Bay handily yesterday,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. Man, Again, I think over is easily,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: like by far, the best way to play this game.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: But you're, you know, it's a high total. Obviously you're
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: having to play over ten, but it's not anywhere near
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: like a key number really because the key numbers of
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: nine and eleven, so you're not really Yeah, you're in
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: no man's land to ten. But yeah, I think that
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: game goes over Kansas City and Baltimore. Baltimore just beat
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: the Cubs to salvage a game in that series yesterday,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: which I thought they might. I liked Baltimore first five
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: in that one, which I think that was a winner
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: as well. I think they're winning one nothing at that point,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: if I'm not mistaken. The game was lower scoring than
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I thought it would be. Kansas City just lost to
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: the Mets. I mean, that's not great. Obviously Kansas City
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: is not a good team. Obviously Baltimore will be favored here.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Baltimore does have the better bullpenal, though neither bullpen is
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: that good. Baltimore used three relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: also used three, some normal usage here. Kansas City's dead
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: last and bullpenal though their era is actually better than
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Minnesota does. But they're bad, really bad. Baltimore is fourteenth,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: though I think they're a bit worse than that. Their
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: era is not very good. Hitting wise, Kansas City is
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: they moved up a little bit during that last series.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: They're at sixteenth. They're actually tied with Baltimore, both tied
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: in sixteenth. Kansas City's using Lewinda Revila here as a starter.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: I know his numbers are bad. Five point oh five v.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: One point five to nine whip is really bad. But
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: he's still a young guy, and if you look at
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: what he's been doing, I think he actually does have
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: some talent. I think he's better than his numbers would suggest.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: He's actually been good on the road. Two point six
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: y five roadyra that is pretty good. He pitched well
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: last time out at home against Philadelphia. He's had some
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: good recent starts in here. His walk number has been
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit questionable on some of these. He had
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: one really bad start against Houston at home. It's really
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: throwing his numbers off quite a bit here, and he
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: was pitching out of a bullpen early in the season.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: But overall, he's got like a pretty mediocre hit rate.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is too high, so that's something that
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: he's got to get that down. Man, if he was
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: able to get his walk rate down, I think he'd
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: be pretty decent. His strikeout rate is okay, so you know,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: nothing mind blowing, but I think he is better than
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: his numbers make. Look here Baltimore. Let me see, Baltimor's
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: never faced him, so he does have a little bit
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: of an unfamiliarity edge here. Where I always talk about
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: how these young pitchers they tend to have an advantage
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: over hitters that haven't faced him before. Baltimore is going
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: with Brandon Young, who is not as young, although he
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: is still fairly young. Young has been having an okay
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: season here three point three eighty RA, one point three
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: to six whip is not that good though, indicates his
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: ERA should be higher than it is. He's been pretty
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: good at home two point nine home era, so both
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: pitchers have the better of their home road splits here. Young.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been walking too many guys, but he's
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: not allowing that many runs, so that's a good thing.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Like he's keeping his team in every game pretty much.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed more than four and runs in any
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: start all season. His hit rate is right around one
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: per inning, pretty mediocre. His walk rate is too high.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is a little bit low, so
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: kind of similar to what we're seeing with a Vela
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: on the other side there, although a bit of a
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: lower strikeout rate than his Young. I mean, his main
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: thing is also the walks. He's got to get that
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: down a bit against Kansas City. I hate it when
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: we cross over to the new series because ESPN doesn't
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: update right away. They've never seen him before, which kind
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: of surprises me because Young has been around for multiple
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: years at this point. But yeah, Kansas City has never
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: based him, so we have two pictures that have an
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge here. The total in this game is really high,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: at ten. I think the first five under is actually
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game, which might seem insane.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know the total is really high, but
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: part of that is because the bullpens are not good.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is at minus one fifty or so. Here they
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of the money, but they're public
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the tickets eighty five percent of the
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: cash on Baltimore. Yeah, I mean, I don't have a
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: good read on the side here. Baltimore looks like they
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: probably shouldn't be that heavily favored, though, I mean Kansas City.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, the oddsmakers basically consider Kansas City to be
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: one of the worst teams in baseball, so you know
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: they're gonna get disrespected in the market. But the under
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: is actually getting money sixty two percent of the tickets
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: on the over, fifty six percent of the cash on
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: the under. It feels like kind of a sneaky way
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: to play this, but I think first five under is
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: what makes sense in that game. I don't love it
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: by any means. I mean, both pitchers could obviously get
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: blown up in this game, but you know, I think
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: they might actually both be all right. So yeah, you
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: can get a good number on that. Probably it's probably
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: gonna be five and a half or something, So yeah,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: that might be the way to look this next game.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: I also like the under, and I almost put this
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: one on my card. Cubs and Reds. This game really
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: looks like an under, but the market is kind of
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: saying otherwise in a way, or at least the odds
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: makers are. Cincinnati used two relief pitchers yesterday. I would
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: not include Cincinnati's bullpen in this in the under, I mean,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Cubs use four relief pitchers. Cubs are the better bullpen,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: but this struggled recently too. They're all the way down
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: to thirteenth. Reds are a bullpen I want nothing to
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: really do with. They're twenty eighth. Although their ERA is
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: better than most of these teams, I think there's still
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: like a bottom ten bullpen. Though Cubs are the better offense,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: they're fifth the Reds have been bad. They are twenty
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: fourth now. I like the starting pitching here though this
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: looks like like almost an ace starting pitching matchup to me.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: It's just that there are question marks with both of
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: these starters here show to Imanaga's pitching for the Cubs.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: I am still gonna maintain that he's better than his
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: RA makes him look four point two eighty R. But
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: his whip is good one point one. I think he's
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: gotten a little bit unlucky. He's better on the road
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: three point nine to two road RA, so he's in
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: the better of his home road splits. But he's been
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit questionably recently though really not too bad.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: But he's also kind of faced a couple of week
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: offenses recently here too, So I just don't know what
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: to make of it. I mean, I've liked him in
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: the past, but it could be the case that maybe baseball,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: maybe the hitters are just figuring him out, you know,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: now that he's been in Major League Baseball for a
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: few years now, maybe he's getting figured out. I mean,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: sometimes that happens when these Japanese pitchers come over. But
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: if you look at his overall numbers. I mean, this
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: is really not bad at all. He's got a pretty
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: low hit rate here, his walk rate is low, his
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is reasonably high. He's a lot, a lot
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: of home runs and that's I think been the thing
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: that's gotten him. He's way too many home runs allowed.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: If he stops doing that, he's going to be a
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: good pitcher again. So I don't really think he's that bad.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: This is a home run conduced the ballpark though in Cincinnati,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: but he's been good against them in the past. Fifty
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: eight at bats, one seventy two average, six forty one
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: ohps allowed, eighteen to seven strike out walk ratio. That's
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: not a good ratio, but the rest of those numbers
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: are good. And he's going up against Hunter Green, who
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: really let me down in his first start back from injury.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, he has a twenty one point sixty
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: array and three point three whip. Nobody's gonna want to
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: back this guy here, but I would lean towards, Like
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: I said, I'm leaning towards backing both starters here. Green.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna do well against Baltimore.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: He good.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Green looks like he's ready to go again. To me,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: like he did look that way. He looked really good
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: in his rehab starts in the minors, So I think
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: this was just a blip. I just think, you know,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe he just wasn't ready and he
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: got blown up by Baltimore. But I don't think that's
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: gonna happen again here. Green has been really good in
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: his career. Like I knew he was gonna be a
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: good pitcher, like right right out of the gate basically,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: but he didn't really show that until a couple of
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: years into his career. But he's good, man, and he's
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: been good against the Cubs throughout his career too. In
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: one hundred and five at bats, one seventy one average
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: six sixty nine ohps is a little higher than you
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: would think. They do have some power hitting off him
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: in a lot of walks twenty eight strikeouts fourteen walks.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: That's not a good ratio, but otherwise his numbers are
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: good here. I think he has a good start here, man.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: I think that was a blip last time out. He's
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher. The totals high, which does worry me here.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I don't want the Reds bullpen involved in whatever I
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: do here, you know, unless I'm gonna fade them, which
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to in this case, totals at nine
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: and a half, which I mean, this just seems disrespectful
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: to me man to these two starters. Like, like I said,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I consider these starters to be like basically ACE caliber
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: starters in my opinion, or you know, maybe just a
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: little bit worse than that. Right now. But seventy six
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the under, eighty seven percent of
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under, So the money looks like
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: it is backing the under, even though the public looks
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: like they're playing the under as well, which I don't
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: really think that's the case. I think the public forgets
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: about Hunter Green. They're not gonna back him with a
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: twenty two era or whatever. And Ima Naga hasn't really
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: been that great recently either, so don't I don't see
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: the public actually backing the under here. I think maybe
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: it is professional money. I would go first five under
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: in this one. I strongly consider putting that on my card.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: So this one and the over and the Yankees Nationals game,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: those are the those are the two that were really
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: close to making the cut for me. This one will
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: be a first five under. It probably it's like five
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: and a half or five. Whatever the number is, it's
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: a It's definitely a reasonable number given who these starting
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: pitchers are. And of course I'm gonna be pissed when
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: it hits. But you know, my first five unders have
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: been giving me fatigue recently. This next game up is
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: going to be a play for me. I only have
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: two on the day. This game is gonna be an under,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: but I'm gonna go full game on this Cleveland Miami,
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go under seven and a half. It's at
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: about minus one fifteen, minus one twenty. I would pay
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: up to about minus one, maybe one twenty five to
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: get that hook on the seven. Seven is a key
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: number in baseball, as I keep saying, because once you
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: hit the the sixth run, once you hit a three
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: to three tie, you have to break the tie, you know.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: But I like to started pitching here well enough. We
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: have a pitcher friendly ballpark here. Even though Miami has
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: been hitting well recently, I think their offensive numbers have
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: gotten skewed by where they were playing and now they're
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: at home where you know, it's more of a pitcher
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark here. So I don't really think we have
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: two excellent offenses here. Obviously, Cleveland's is not. Miami used
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday, Cleveland used two. But I'm okay
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: with backing the bullpens here. These are both decent enough bullpens.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: Miami's ranked second and whip they're a solid bullpen. I
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: don't think they're quite that good, but they're good enough.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is eighteenth. They have a decent era, so I'm
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: fine with backing them here as well. Offensively, Cleveland's been awful.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: They're twenty ninth. They're still dealing with injuries. Miami has
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: been good at six, but again, I don't think Miami
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: is actually that good. You look at what they've done recently.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: They put up a decent amount of runs in that
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: home series against Seattle, but their offense really got skewed
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: because they were putting up a ton of runs in
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: Colorado and in the A's stadium. They scored a ton
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: in those games. You know, they're scoring output is gonna
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: be lower once they're back at home, you know what
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I mean. I mean, those are the two most hitter
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: friendly ballparks in existence in Major League Baseball, Colorado and
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: the A's, so you know, their offensive numbers are not
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: going to be as good as what you saw in
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: those series, and that jacked up their offensive numbers there.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: So they're not gonna do that much damage at home,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: and especially they're not gonna do it against Parker Messik.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, Messik is Cleveland's best pitcher two point
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: at least in my opinion, two point eight e Ra
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: one point eight whip. He's been even better on the
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: road two point four to five. Roady Ray. He's solid man,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I know he walked too many
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: guys in his last start against the White Sox, but whatever,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: I mean. He's pitching consistently well. He hasn't allowed more
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: than four and runs in any start all season. He's
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate. His walk rate is low enough.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not great, but it's fine. His strikeout
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: rate is somewhat high, so that's pretty good. More than
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: one strike up per inning. You always like to see that.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: And he's gonna be going up against an offense that's
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: completely unfamiliar with him, so that should help counter Miami's
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: offense as well. They've never seen Messick before, and again
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: I will reiterate them. When a young talented pitcher goes
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: up against an offense that hasn't seen them before, the
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: pitcher has the advantage there. So I like that, and
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: I'm also going to back Sandy Alkontra on the other side,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: even though we're well past the days when he's you know,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: when he was a cy young caliber pitcher, but he's
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: figured out how to pitch with his limitations, and he
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: is having a decent season for ERA one point two
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: to five whip not too bad. He's been good at
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: home three point one to nine home ra so were
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: in the better of both pitchers home road splits here.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: He was dominant last time out at the A's stadium,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: so that is a pretty good sign in a very
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: hit or friendly ballpark against a good offense. He completely
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: shut down the A's in eight innings. That's a good sign.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Not a good sign that he was walking too many
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: guys in some of these prior starts, but he's been
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: pretty good in general. He had a good month of
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: June other than his walk rate was too high, but
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: it was a couple of outings where he just kind
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: of didn't have control. But he had a lot of
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: outings in the month of June where he walked one
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: or zero. So he has been pretty good in general overall.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: And Miami has won seven straight starts of his and
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: he's picked up a win in every single one. So yeah,
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna say he is in good form here. His
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is low, I know, I mean, he's never
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: gonna return to that, you know, really high strikeout pitcher
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: that he once was. He's limiting the hits well enough,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is low enough, and he's actually
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: a grinder. He's going deep into games, so that means
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: that his team trusts him. Like he's constantly throwing like
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: ninety to one hundred pitches in these outings. And normally
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: that would worry me that, you know, oh, this guy's
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: being over extended here, but he's doing it, you know,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: just start after start, and he's a veteran pitcher, so
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: he's kind of used to that, so I'm not that
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: worried about that. And he's facing a really weak Cleveland
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: offense here, and he does. I mean, he's basically unfamiliar
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: to them. Only Reyese Hoskins has ever faced him before
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: and he has forty one at bats against him, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been great. Sixteen strikeouts, six walks, two twenty average,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: six point eighty five ohps against him. He does have
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: three doubles in a home run against him, but he's
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: nine for forty one against him. So, uh, the one
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: guy who has a lot of experience against Alcandra that
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has has not hit him well. So I'm gonna
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: go with the under in this game. The money was
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me. Hopefully it still is. Yes, it is
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: sixty one percent of tickets, seventy eight percent of the
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. Oddsmakers are telling you they expect
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: this to be an under with the total round seven
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: and a half or seven. Again, find the seven and
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: a half. You can find it in multiple books that
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: like my it's one twenty I think at worst. So
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: that's what I'm going with here. That's play number one
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: for me under Cleveland and Miami. That's not true, texts.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: A ballpark doesn't just change, like they didn't change anything
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: about the stadium. No, I mean, it was just that
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: the ballpark was just it was like, you know, there
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: were just so many unders happening early. Is the only
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: thing that's changed is the weather. It's getting hotter, and
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: when it's hotter, that's less underconducive. That's the only thing
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: that's changed. That is still one of the most underconducive
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: ballparks in baseball. Texas still doesn't hit well there. Texas
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: still has good pitching. So no, I don't agree. I'm
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: not going to just start hammering overs in Texas home games. No,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: nothing has changed about the stadium. The only thing that's
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: changed is that it got hotter. That's basically it, and
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: that shouldn't have that much of an effect on it.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: Although the heat does make for more overs, all right,
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: But you don't see like the owsmakers don't start, don't
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: start skewing every number way higher on the totals during
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: the summer. You know, the totals don't see that much
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: of a skew Seattle at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay, you know,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna be in a hangover
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: spot or not after a big series against the Yankees
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: where they split the series. So Tampa did maintain their
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: four game advantage, but they're probably not happy about that
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: because they obviously should have won the series three to one.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know how you lose a game with Rasmussen
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: against a bullpen game, and I don't know how you
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: do that. Tampa Bay is staying at home. Maybe they
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: could be in a bounce back mode because they got
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: blown out yesterday. Seattle, I mean, they're not gonna be
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: unfocused though. Seattle's staying in Florida. They just got swept
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: by Miami, so Seattle likely is going to be focused here,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: and I think there might be some sneaky advantages to
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Seattle here in this game. Seattle. I like their bullpen.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: I think it's better than Tampa is the only these
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: two relief pitchers yesterday, Tampa Bay's four, Seattle. They're ranked
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: lower than Tampa Bay based on bullpen whip Tampa's eight,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle fifteenth. The Seattle's era is considerably better, like almost
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: a run better. So yeah, I think Seattle's bullpen is
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: better Seattle. They're ranked twenty fifth in offense. They haven't
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: been very good offensively, Tampa Bay's tenth, tied with the Giants.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: The Giants, I mean, I still don't think the Giants
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: offense is good, but whatever, Tampa Bay is the better
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: of these two offenses here. But I don't think Seattle
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: is as bad as they might look. I think Seattle
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: probably is actually the more talented offense here. Seattle's going
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: with Luis Castillo. He doesn't have good numbers on the
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: season four point seven to ninety RA, one point three
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: to three WHIP. However, I keep telling you he's not
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: done yet, and he's been pretty good throughout his career,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: way better than what these numbers look like. He's starting
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: to turn it around. Man. He's been better on the
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: road for whatever. And even though Seattle is a pitcher
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: friendly park four point four roadie RA, He's had a
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: couple of good starts in a row here. Man. He's
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: like four of his or five of his last six
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: starts have actually been pretty good. So Castillo is starting
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: to turn this thing around. He's in better form right now.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: I know most of these starts are against bad offenses,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: so that he managed to do okay against Washington, so
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: that's a decent sign. And he actually pitched pretty well
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: in his last start in May as well. Castill looks
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: like he's starting to, you know, just become the pitcher
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: that he usually is. Again. His hit rate is a
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: little bit two eyes, walk rate is actually not that bad.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is Okay, So I don't know, man.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think Castillo is kind of coming back
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: into form here. I think he might do well, might
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: surprise people here. We're talking about Tampa Bay here. Castillo's
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: done reasonably well against them in sixty one at bats
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: two thirty average, although the ops is a little bit high.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: It's seven to fifty seven, so that's just above that
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty threshold that I considered to be ab
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: average thirteen to three strike out walk ratio. But Timba
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Bay at least doesn't like dominate him, so he obviously
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: he has the ability to do all right. In the start,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Nick Martinez, who everybody's gonna think
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: is the better pitcher here. He does have better numbers
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: two point six one ERA one point one to three,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: whit he can't really complain about that. He's not as
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: gonna at home though, three point oh four home ERA.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: And Martinez is an old pitcher man and he does
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: not throw gas, you know what I mean, Like, I
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: think this guy's overrated right now. I mean, Timba Bay
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: is good at getting the most out of their pictures,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: and Martinez is still pitching well recently, but he doesn't
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: fool guys. He doesn't strike anybody out, and you know,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: he's the type of picture of the advanced analytics guys
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: don't like because he doesn't miss bats. His hit rate
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: is reasonably low, though on his walk rate is actually
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: really low, but he doesn't strike anybody out, so he
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: gets a lot of guys to hit into contact. His
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle are not good at all. In twenty
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: nine at bats four fourteen batting average allowed eleven h
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: six oh ps six to four strike got walk ratio.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: That is not good. And it looks like most of
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle's hitters are back in the lineup at this point.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: You know, they got a Rosa Rayna, Crawford, Naylor, big dumper.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Those guys are all in there right now. It looks
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: like so I kind of like Seattle here in this one. Man.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of sneaky, but I think they
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: might have a little bit of a starting pitching advantage
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: here that people don't notice. I think they have the
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. You're getting them as an underdog. Tampa
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: Bay's about minus one twenty here. The money's back in
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, but they are public seventy five percent of
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: tickets ninety four percent of the cash on Tampa. But
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: to me, it looks too easy to play Tampa.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: I got a guy with a two something ERA on
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: the mound with Tampa the team with the better record,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: and they're at minus one twenty and they're still the
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: best record in the American League and whatever. You know,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: it looks too easy to me to play Tampa here.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I would maybe take a shot with Seattle
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: if I was gonna play that game, play them as
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the underdog there. You know, that wouldn't be the last
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: game that I would that I would play. I'll tell
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: you that. Obviously. It doesn't make the cut for me, though.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Mets on Apple TV. That last game
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: I talked about is on ESPN Unlimited. For what that's worth,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Mets are gonna be on Apple TV.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: On the surface, this looks like it's gonna be an
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: under I mean, we have two good starting pitchers on
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: them out here, but I think one of them has
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: has an advantage over the other, and I don't like it.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: The Mets are staying at home. They did just beat
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. They're playing better baseball right now. For what
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: that's worth a little bit.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I think both of these teams are better than their
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: records look, and the Red Sox are also playing better baseball.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have won every game on the road
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: trip so far. They swept Anaheim and Chicago the White Sox.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: Now the Red Sox are traveling in from the White Sox.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know how sand of All pitched well yesterday,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: but he did. Now the Red Sox are coming into
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: the Mets stadium here, Mets have a travel edge because
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: they're staying at home. Both teams are pretty hot right now.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: They're both better than the records suggests, in my opinion.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: Red Sox use four relief pitchers yesterday. They're reasonably rested.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: I think they do have the better bullpen here. Mets
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: only these two guys yesterday, But the Red Sox they
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: have the third best bullpenny array, I believe, and they're
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: number four in whip so this is a good Red
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen. The Mets are ninth, but they've been a
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: little bit worse recently, so I will give the Red
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Sox a bullpen advantage here. I'll also give them an
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: offensive edge because the Mets have been down at the
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: bottom all season. They're doing a little bit better. They're
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: twenty eighth, but the Red Sox are doing better too,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: They're at twenty third. Red Sox, for whatever reason, have
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: hit better on the road this year too. Red Sox
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: have Sonny Gray on the mound. He's been really good.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Two point six to one array, one point one whip.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse on the road three
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: point zero five. Roadyra did well in his first start
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: of this road trip at Anaheim, but they haven't really
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: been hitting that well. Gray's been awesome over his recent start.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: He had one really good start in course Field, had
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: an even better start at home against the Yankees where
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: he took a no hitter into the seventh inning I think,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: or maybe even into the eighth. I guess it was
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees. Didn't have a letdown. Pitch well again
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim last time out. So he is on a
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: roll right now. He's got a low hit ray, low
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: walk rate, his strikeout rates not really that high. But
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: he's doing well, dude. You know, good offseason pickup for
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. Although I don't know if there's gonna
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: be some things swirling around here in his head because
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: people were talking about the Red Sox potentially trying to
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: trade him, and I'm like, are the Red Sox really
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: like considering the season to be over. I don't think
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: they are, Like with the fact that they've won six
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: games in a row and there are only a few
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: games out of the wildcard right now, the Red Sox
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: have a chance to make the playoffs still, so I
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: don't think they're packing it in yet. The American League
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: is terrible, the Red Sox could still make the playoffs playoffs. Gray, though,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: the one bad thing that I was alluding to earlier
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: is he's really bad against the Mets, and I don't
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: really know why. Well, pretty bad two to eighty nine
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: batting average, allowed eight to seventy two ops in seventy
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: six at bats, eighteen strikeouts, ten walks. Mets have multiple
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: guys who have hit him pretty well, so I don't
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: like that. So Gray doesn't draw a good match up here,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: and he's gonna have to go up against Nolan McLain, who, obviously,
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: you know, I think he's good three point seven to
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: three ERA, one point one to two whip. McClain hasn't
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: been good at home though, five point zero three home
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: y ra that's not good at all. But he's a
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: good pitcher man. I think maybe his numbers are getting
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit skewed by a couple of bad starts.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: At home, he's pitching well again. His last two stars
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: are both really good, both on the road though against
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Toronto and the Braves. But decent sign that he's pitching
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: well on the road against the Braves, even though I
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: know their offense hasn't been playing well recently and they're
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: not that good at home. But whatever, McClain's a good pitcher, dude.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: He's got a highest strikeout rate, he throws a lot
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: of innings, his hit rates low, his walk rate is
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: not really that high. I mean, everything looks pretty good
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: for McClain here, other than you know, he'd want to
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: see his walk rate get a little bit lower. I
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: guess once we start getting into the second half of
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: the season, we're gonna have to worry about young guys
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: like him that are throwing way more innings than they
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: ever have before they start to tire out, like after
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: the All Star break. But we're not quite there yet,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: and the Red Sox have never faced him before, so
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: McLain has the unfamiliarity edge here, so I think the
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Red Sox might struggle offensively here, trying to figure out
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: a solid pitcher that they've never seen before. So I
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: like the Mets in this game. It looks like an
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: under on the surface, and it could be. I mean, obviously,
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: you have two good starting pitchers here. Neither bullpen is
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: bad either. Some you know, an under maybe makes some sense.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: And it looks like the over is public seventy two
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets seventy three percent of the cash
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: on the over. That's not a big cash disparity there.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half is the total. So the oddsmakers
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: do think it's gonna be a lower scoring game. I
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: think I would play the Mets if I was gonna
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: play it. Though the Mets are at minus one thirty
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: four minus one thirty six. That's interesting. The Mets are
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: that heavily favored here against Sonny Gray no less, I mean,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: that's kind of disrespectful to Gray. Like I thought the
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Mets would be about minus one eighteen or so here,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. That price seems a little crazy.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: The money is on the Red Sox sixty nine percent
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: of tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash at least
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: for now. But my lean would be a little bit
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: towards the met I would go Mets first five actually
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: because I think the Red Sox do have a bullpen
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: advantage there, so I think Mets first five maybe the
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: way to look at that game. And I don't know
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: what the money line price looks like on that, but
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: that might be the way to do it. Next game
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: is As and White Sox. White Sox are staying at home.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: So many teams staying at home, dude, Like I said,
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: there's like nobody returning home from a road trip here.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: And you know why that is? Well, actually, I don't
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: know if it's because the All Star Break is coming up.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: I think maybe it is. I think teams are on
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: road trips right now. They're just finishing the road trip
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: here and then going into the All Star Break. I
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: think that's just, you know, the way that the scheduling happens.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense, Oh, have this team return home,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: play one series and then go to the All Star Breaker.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: That's probably not unheard of, though I don't know. Anyway,
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are staying at home. They got swept
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: by the Red Sox. They probably are looking to bounce
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: back after that. The A's are coming in after getting
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: swept as well. They've been swept two straight series by
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Miami and Detroit. Pretty crazy, man, So the A's you
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: know might come into this game have bit more motivated
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: here too. Both teams coming off of getting swept so
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: pretty ugly. A's have an ugly bullpen. They used four
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They're not a good bullpen.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: White Sox bullpen is the better one. They used three.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: The A's are twenty fifth. They're one of the bullpens
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: with an ERA above five, which is not good. But
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: White Sox bullpeny rays like a run better than that.
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: The ring nineteenth. They have the better bullpen. The A's
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: are the better offense. The A's are twelfth right now,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: though in the White Socks are fourteenth, as tied with
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the Braves. The A's are going with Jacob Lopez, a
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: name that we haven't seen in a while, probably because
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: he was pitching horribly seven point four one point eight
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: to four whip. I don't know if he got sent
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: to the minors or what the deal was. He's not
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: very good though, I mean, he looked pretty good last
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: year from out of nowhere, but I think it was
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: kind of a fluke. He is better away from that
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: horrible A's stadium, though, He's got a six point one
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: to nine ROADIRA, which is still pretty bad.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: He pitched on July seventh. I think that might have
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: been out of the bullpen. He pitched three innings, so
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: he's pitching on a little bit of short rest here,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: though prior to that he hadn't pitched since late May
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: and he was not getting the job done. He's got
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: a high hit rate, really high walk rate, too many
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: home runs allowed, pretty low strikeout rate. There's nothing to
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: really like about what Lopez is doing here against the
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: White so they've never seen him before except great Chuck
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: is over one off him, no walks, no strikeouts. I
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: still don't think Lopez is gonna pitch well here. I
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: think he's clearly the worst of these two pitchers up
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: against Sean Burke, although that's part of the reason why
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are heavily favored here. Burke is having
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: a pretty good season three point five six ERA, one
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: point two to two whip. He's not as good at
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: home though, four point h nine home y ra He
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: was really good last time out at Cleveland, had double
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: digit strikeouts, held him to one run at six innings.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: We had a winner on the show with the first
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: five under in that game, I believe, or it might
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: have been was a full game on I don't I
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: forget whatever it was. We won on a under in
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: that one. Burke, he's been pitching pretty well, man, really
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: throughout the course of the season. He's allowed more than
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: four and runs only once. He's got a pretty low
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: hit rate, his walk rate is reasonably low, strike out
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: rate is high. So yeah, there's a lot to like
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: here against the A's, though Burke has not done well
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: twenty seven at bats. They've seven guys who have faced
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: him three point thirty three average one thousand and forty
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: six oh ps, nine to two strike out walk razio.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: It's not a big sample size here, but he has
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: not done that well against them. Still, you know, I
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: think the White Sox do have advantage this year. I
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: would still prefer Burke over Lopez, but the money is
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: backing the A's here. Eighty percent of the tickets on
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: the White Sox, fifty five percent of the cash on
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: the A's. If you're gonna back the A's, you got
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: to do it in the first five. I will at
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: least say that, But I don't really see how you
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: could even do that, you know, with Lopez on the mout,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: I don't see that.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: The argument I guess would be that the White Sox
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be favored this heavily at minus one sixty whatever here,
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: or that the A's just shouldn't be that big of
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: an underdog because the A's they're not that bad of
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: a team, but they're pitching definitely leaves something to be desired.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: It could be an over, you know, given that I
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: don't think Lopez is good, Burke doesn't have good matchup numbers.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: Over you get a reasonable number there at nine, and
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: you know, the odds maker's kind of telling you they
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: think it'll be high scoring game, sixty four percent of tickets,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash on the over. I
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: wouldn't disagree with the over there. Actually, that might even
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: be the better way to play this game is probably
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: to go over. I mean, I would slightly lean towards
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: the White Sox still, and you probably have to make
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: like a minus one run line out of it. But
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: the over might actually be the best way to play
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: that game. The next game up is going to be
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: my one other play of the day. I don't have
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: a play in the World Cup or WNBA. This game,
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: we actually have a rest advantage and the better starting
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. We're gonna take the Houston Astros against Texas
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty eight on the money line. You know,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a full game look here. I mean,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: you know, if you want to go first five, you
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: could do that too, but I think you're gonna have
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: to pay more of a price for it. Let me see,
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: I just I think Houston's bullpen is not really that
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: much of a disadvantage at this point. But let me
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: let me look at what the first five looks like
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: here real quick. I found this line at FD By
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: the way, first five. Yeah, if you go first five,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you have to lay a spread on it. So yeah,
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna I'm gonna go with the better price,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: better price here. Now, Houston their bullpen has not been
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: bad recently. Plus they're rested, so you know what I mean.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: So the rest advantage does help us here. So that
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: does help us with going full game here, because Houston
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: didn't play yesterday. Texas did. They used three guys, and
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: in fact, they used lots, so I believe is I
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: think they're using him as their closer. So Texas's bullpen
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: might even actually be at a slight disadvantage here. They
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: haven't been as good recently, even though generally I think
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: they are the better bullpen, and we know how bad
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Houston was at the beginning of the season. But Texas
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: is down to eleventh in bullpen, their ERA is getting
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: close to four, which isn't really that good. Houston is sixteenth,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: and they're doing better out of the bullpen recently, so
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: you know, I think I'm fine with doing it this
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: way and getting the cheaper price. Houston has the better offense,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: although they've fallen off a bit. They're at fifteenth Texas
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: is at eighteenth, but I still think Houston is the
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: better offense, and we're back in the better starter here
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: by far. We're gonna back Hunter Brown. He's good, even
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: though I know his whip doesn't look good right now.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: Three point three eighty array, one point three six whip.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: He hasn't made that many starts this season because he's
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: coming back from injury, but he's been an ace pitcher
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: the last couple of years. Man, he's good. He's been
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road so far this year.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: Three ROADI ray. I know it's a small sample. He
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: got beaten up in his last start at home against
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, had too many walks. I'm gonna I'm willing
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: to overlook that as more of an outlier though, because
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: he's allowed he'd allowed two or fewer in his other
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: five starts that he made so far this season. Granted,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay was the best offense that he had faced
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: so far, but Texas is not as good as Tampa Bay.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: So Texas is going to be another weaker offense than
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be facing here, So I think he should
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: do better here. He's still got a low hit rate here.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: His walk greate is too high. He's got to get
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: that under control, man, But you know, I'm not too
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: worried about that, knowing what his career numbers look like.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: And he's got a high strikeout rate, so that tells
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: you his stuff is still here. Man. He's still striking
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: way more than one guy out per inning, so that's good.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: And again just look at what his overall numbers were.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was quite good the last two years,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: especially last year, even though you know he can tend
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: to have some wildness, but he's able to counter that,
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: you know, with just high strikeout rate and doesn't allow
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: that many hits. So I'm willing to back him here.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: And his numbers against Texas, you know, they're gonna be
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: pretty good. He's held them to a two twenty six average,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: six to fifty five ops and eighty four at bats,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: so we have a big sample size here in Texas
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: has not done a lot of damage against him. Twenty
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: four to seven strike out walk ratio. That's pretty good
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: as well. He's going up against Cal Quantrill, so I
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: think we have a pretty significant advantage here. Oh but
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Quantrill's numbers look good so far. Three point three five yr,
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: one point one seven whip. Yeah, I mean fine, I
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: mean whatever. But he's not really that good of a
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: pitcher man. He's basically a converted relief pitcher. He's like
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: a long relief spot starters, you know, spot starter type
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: of guy. And I know that if you look at
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: his numbers throughout his career, some of these numbers are
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit skewed because he was with Colorado and whatever.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: But these are really mediocre numbers over the course of
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: his entire career. You know, he had a couple of
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: good seasons in there, but he's getting up there in
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: age his career. He ray's mid fours. His whip is
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: over won three in his career. That's not very good.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been good at home so far this year
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: four point six to sixth Homierra as I hear a
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: truck backing up outside, which is very annoying. Now, Quandrill
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: pitched pretty well last time out against Detroit, but yeah,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm buying it, man. I mean,
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: I think that was the first start that he made
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: in a long time. I could be wrong about that.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: I guess he's made three this season. I don't know
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: if the outing before that might have been a start.
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure. But he's not really going that deep
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: into these outings either, so you know, he might be
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: knocked out of the game earlier on a Hunter Brown obviously,
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: as the to go deeper into these outings quantroll. I mean,
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: he doesn't strike anybody out, so he doesn't really fool guys.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is pretty low, though his walk rate
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: is okay. But again, I mean We know that Hunter
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: Brown is the way more talented pitcher here, and Quantrell
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: has not done well against Houston eighty five at bats.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: We have a big sample here, three zero six average,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: nine fifteen ops, nine to eleven strike out walk ratio.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: That is not good. None of those numbers are good.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna back Houston here. We got a
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: rest advantage behind us, plus we have the better starting pitcher.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: I like it. They're public, but it looks like the
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: money might be agreeing with this too. Seventy eight percent
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Gotta lay a little bit of juice with this, laying
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: the lumber, but I think it's a good spot to
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: do it, Houston Astros. I mean, in baseball, you gotta
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: lay some money lines that are like this. But you
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: know I won't lay anything that's more than like minus
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: one forty something. So let's do it. Let's take the
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: Houston Astros on the money line. All right, I'll be
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: back in a second. I'll talk about the remaining games
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: here and then talk about the other sports. Give me
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: a second, yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We're
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: on own seven run over the last two days after tonight,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: I have not had a good season. Man, with Wickens
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: hack Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: the Bruins archiepe, is that what it is? I don't
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: even know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: don't even know what day it is anymore. Man, back
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: The slump, the slump disconvenience, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: do at this point, other than potentially.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: End it all.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: All right, what do we have left here? Anaheim in Minnesota?
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: All right, this one is kind of interesting. I mean,
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: I think maybe both pitchers might be a little bit
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: under the radar here. I don't really want to back
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: them either though. Minnesota. I just finished the series with Cleveland.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: They lost a four game win streak. So sometimes I
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: talk about teams when they lose a win streak, sometimes
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: they will be hung over into the next game. Minnesota
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: is staying at home. Anaheim is coming in from Texas.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: They lost the series to Texas. They lost yesterday in
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: a game that screwed me, you know, bad play for
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: me on the under and the verse five there. Anaheim
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: used five relief pitchers. Their bullpen is not very good,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: but Minnesota's is even worse. Minnesota used three, but we
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: have two bad bullpens here, so we could maybe find
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: some overs in the series. As you can tell, I
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: don't really want to play an over in this game,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: but it could happened. I mean, these bullpens are bad.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's twenty ninth. They're debatably the worst bullpen, Anaheim twenty fourth.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: Not much better offensively, Anaheim hasn't really been that good.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: They're twenty first solough they are better on the road.
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: Minnesota plays a lot of high scoring home games. Minnesota
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: seventh in hitting TYE with the Yankees. Anaheim's going with
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Grayson Rodriguez here. He's got an awful numbers so far eight
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: point zero six ERA, one point eight three WHIT. But
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: he's not that bad again. He's just had major injury problems.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Man Like, it looked like he was gonna be a
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: decent pitcher for Baltimore. He got completely derailed, missed all
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: of last season with an injury, and then he got
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: hurt again this season. So I don't know what we
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: want to do with this guy at this point. He
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: was good on the road when he was pitching. I
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: think it was only one start that he made on
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: the road, but at one point eight roadie ra you
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: know he was. He had one decent starting here against Houston. Actually, really,
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: I mean he had a couple of decent starts in here.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: It looked like he was starting to pitch a little
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: bit better. Then he got injured when he wasn't really
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: pitching well against Tampa Bay. But I think he got
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: injured in that start, which was about a month ago.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: He's been on the injured list since then. Now he's
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: coming back. Could he do well here? It's possible, you know.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: Like I, overall, I don't think he's that bad of
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: a pitcher, but again, uh, bouncing back from injury can
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: be difficult sometimes. Minnesota basically hasn't seen him though. Only
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Gray and lar Knacka face him and they're zero for
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: four with a strikeout against him. Again, I think Rodriguez
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: is a lot better than his numbers suggests, So I
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: will say that so far, though he'd had a high
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: hit rate, high walk rate, his strikeout rate was decent.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: So he still looks like he does have the ability
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: to fool hitters. But I just can't really back him
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: given that we just he's just too much of a
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: question mark man h. But I think at some point,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: if he stays healthy, he's gonna be a bit better
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: than what we think. ZEBI matt us this pitcher for
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: the Twins. I think he's better than his era suggests.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Four point four to three e r ras whip is
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: pretty good one point one six. He's been good at
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: home two point zero eight home ERA, so he's in
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the better of his home road splits here. He had
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: a bad start last time out against the Yankees. He
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: was wild, but you know, it was on the road
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees. It happens. He had had three good
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: starts in a row before then, including one against the
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: Dodgers here at home. So I think Matthews has some
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: good stuff. I think he's good at home. He's got
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate, a low walk rate. His strike
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: up rate isn't really that high though, although I thought
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: he was a fairly capable strike up pitcher. I don't know, man,
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's that bad. He will be going
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: up against the Angels here though. The Angels have hit him,
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: although only four of their hitters have faced them, but
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: they're six for eleven off him, five point forty five
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: batting average thirteen sixty four OPS. That's not good obviously,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: three zero strikeout walk ratio. So Zebulon does not do
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: very well here against Anaheim. You know, I mean, even
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: though I think both pitchers are under the radar, this
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: game probably still, if you play it, probably the over
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: is still the better approach here. You know, both pitchers
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: could give something up here, even though again I think
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: that they're not totally fadable, Like they're not pictures that
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: you always want to fade, you know what I mean.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: But in this game, I think maybe it makes sense.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: Although Grayson Rodriguez, you know, coming back from injury, maybe
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be excited to get back out there. Again.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: Who knows. The money is actually leaning towards Anaheim seventy
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: seven percent of ticket, sixty two percent of the cash
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: on Minnesota, they're about minus one thirty here. I don't
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: know if i'd be able to do that. I mean, yeah,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: I mean I think Zebbi overall might be the better
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers. So I don't know. I don't
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: think I would really want to play Anaheim you're here,
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: but I think over, if you're gonna play this game,
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't played at all, obviously, But I think if
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play it, over probably is still the way
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: to go. Do the full game. You can get over.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: It looks like you have to probably play over nine
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: and a half, but maybe there's a nine out there
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: with some juice on it. I see minus one twenty five,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: But that's at the Vegas SB book there. Uh, so
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: that's not an online that's not a book you can
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: play online outside of Vegas. So let me see here.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: I hate when this refreshes and I lose what I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: was looking at. Sixty tickets ninety three percent of the
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: cash on the over in that one. So over is
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: getting the money. Do with that info what you want.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Atlanta and Saint Louis, Apple TV. This looks like a
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: big mismatch, at least on the surface. Uh, with the
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup here, Saint Louis is staying at home.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: What else is new? They just had a pretty ugly
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: series against Milwaukee. That was our one win on the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: show yesterday. The Brewers won pretty easily in that game yesterday.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: They got out to like a five nothing or six
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: nothing lead and never surrendered it, even though their bullpen
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: you know, wasn't great in the game. But I think
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: they just didn't need to use their better relievers anyway.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday, Atlanta used four.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's still the better bullpen here, There's still number one
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: in bult pen in Whip and number two in era,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: but you could definitely yeah. I mean, I think there's
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: still the best bullpen and should be considered to be
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: that right now. Saint Louis is number twenty one. They're
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: not a good bullpen. Like I said, the Braves have
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: fallen off offensively a bit. They're at twelve. The Cardinals
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: are tied in nineteenth with Detroit, though Atlanta has Chris
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: Saale on the mount, so again this does look like
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: a big pitching mismatch in favor of Atlanta. Sale is good, obviously,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: we all know this. Two point two seven e Rra
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: one point one two Whip. He's a little bit worse
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: on the road. Two point nine to six E Ray
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: is still not bad. Was a little bit shaky last
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: time out against the Mets at home. I don't know
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: what that was about. But he's been good obviously throughout
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: the season. High strikeout rate, low hit rate, low walk rate.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: All his numbers are good. He should pitch well here. Uh,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: he's in a pitcher friendly ballpark and Saint Louis only
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: has two guys who have ever seen him, only Noop
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: barn Velaskaz and they're zero for four, often with the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout and a velaskas walk, So yeah, I mean it's
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: pretty crazy. Saint Louis has a really young offense here
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: and most of them haven't even faced Sale before, so yeah,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: I think Sales sets up to do pretty well here.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: He's got the unfamiliarity edge, which usually doesn't happen with
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: a veteran pitcher. Kyle Lay. He is pitching for Saint Louis.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: He's not very good. Three point eight sixty rraight doesn't
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: look that bad, but his one point four or five
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: whip is not good. He's been pretty good at home though,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: three point one to three home rates and more pitcher
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: friendly park, and he's pitching somewhat better recently, like he
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: was decent in June. Follow that up with a pretty
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: good start against the Cobs at Wrigley last time out,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: shut them out for five innings and picked up a win.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: Not bad. You know, he's got a high hit rate
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: still though his walk rate's still pretty high. Strike out
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: rates still not that high, so his overall numbers, yeah,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: are still not very good, but he's in better form
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: right now. He pitches better at home, and the Braves
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: have eighteen at bats against him, and they really haven't
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: done much against him. One extra base hit is an
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: Austin Riley double. They have a two twenty two average,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: five hundred ohps against him, three strikeouts, no walks. So
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: this sounds maybe kind of crazy, but I think maybe
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: this game is an under of some kind. I mean,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: the totals really low. U It's low for a reason.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: You know, the oddsmakers are not just going to throw
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: a low total up there, though obviously sale is a
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: huge part of that. But the totals at eight, Atlanta's
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: very public ninety one percent of tickets and cash. I
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: would not be looking to play Atlanta here, even though
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: it looks like they have the starting pitching edge. It
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: looks too easy to play them. But I mean minus
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: won sixty is a pretty hefty price though on Atlanta.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: Of course, you know you're gonna be paying too much.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: With for Atlanta, with sale on the mound, you could,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: you know, make a minus one run line out of it,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: if you really wanted to do that. That way, that
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: is not I think again, the way that I would
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: look at this game is maybe maybe a first five under,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: because I don't like Saint Louis's bullpen money looks like
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit on the over, but eighty one
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash, it
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: looks like a public over. Yeah, I think first five
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: under actually might be the way to play that game.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: Both starting pitchers might actually do okay there. Do I
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: think Atlanta wins the game? Yeah, I mean probably that's
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: more likely. I mean their favored, but I think it's
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: too heavy of a price to lay there. Toronto at
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: San Diego. San Diego just lost to Arizona yesterday. They
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: split that series. They're staying at home, So yeah, all
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: these home teams staying at home. Man Toronto, I believe
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: was off yesterday, so Toronto has a rest advantage coming
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: in here after they beat San Francisco ten to nothing
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: the other day, So Toronto's got a rest advantage here.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: San Diego generally, I would say, has the better bullpend
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: of these four guys out of it yesterday they didn't
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: use Mason Miller. But yeah, I mean they're a little
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: bit worked right now. Still, I think they're probably the
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: better bullpend. They're at twelve, Toronto's at tenth. San Diego's
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: got the better era they have. I think san Diego's
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: got the better relief pitchers, but these are the bullpens
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: are close, though, especially because Toronto's rested offensively. Neither team's
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: done well. San Diego's dead last thirtieth, Toronto's twenty seventh.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: That's not good. So you might think, well, maybe this
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: is gonna be an under it's a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure about that man. Toronto's gonna go
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: with Shane Bieber. He's good. I mean, he's been a
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: really good pitcher throughout his career, but he's trying to
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: bounce back from injury. Hasn't been good so far. He's
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: got a ninety RRA and two point oh eight whip.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: Although obviously, once he gets his bearings, I obviously expect
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: him to start pitching better again. I backed him a
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: few times last year. This year, I mean, I don't
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: really want to back him yet though. He's been bad
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: on the road fifteen point seven to five road array.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: Although obviously, again I expect all these numbers to start
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: getting better. But he has not put together a good
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: start yet. Dude, he's got a high hit rate, high
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: walk rate, strike out rate looks a little down, so
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I worry about Bieber right now.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: Is he actually going to struggle to bounce back from injury.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because last year he came back last
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: year and he was good until he got hurt, and
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: throughout his career he's been an excellent pitcher. So yeah,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Man. He's not really that old yet either,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: at thirty one, but I worry about him right now.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: And against San Diego, they've actually been able to hit him.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: They have forty five at bats against him. Only five
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have faced him, but those guys have
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: done damaged three thirty three average, nine to eighty four ohps,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: four to two strike out walk ratium. Gavin Sheets pretty
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: much destroys him five for eighteen with two of them runs.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I don't know, man, not great,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: so Bieber might do poorly again here. San Diego is
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: going with JP Sears. Sears is kind of interesting. I mean,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: I think he's maybe not going to be that bad
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: pitching in this stadium. I mean's Sears, he's been an
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: alright pitcher in the last couple of years or whatever.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: He kind of got screwed having to pitch in pitch
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: with the A's like last year. I think he was
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: with the A's and had to pitch in that stadium
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: the only year so far besides this year the A's
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: had to play in that stadium. Sears this year as
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: a four point seventy RA one point three to seven whip. Obviously,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: that's really mediocre stuff. But he's been pretty good at
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: home so far three point one to eight homi. It
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: was only one start, though, but he pitched really well
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: last time out at LA. He shut the Dodgers down
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: him one hit, shutout them for five innings. That's pretty good.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: He's had one bad start out of his three starts
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: so far, and he's faced good offenses Atlanta, Cubs and
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, so this is gonna be This should be
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: an easier matchup for him pitching against Toronto. His hit
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: rates about one per innings, strike gout rates close to
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: one per inning, which isn't too bad. His walk rate
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: is too high, but you know, it is what it is.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: I think Seiars is okay, though, and this might be
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: a decent matchup for him, although maybe not because Toronto
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: actually does hit him well. Three twenty seven average, eight
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: eighty nine ops fifty five at bats, a decent sample there,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: nine to three strike out walk ratio, So you know,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a really hard game to handicap.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: Toronto's got the Toronto does have the rest edge. The
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: money's all coming in on Toronto. And you know, normally
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: I might agree because I think Bieber is the better
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: pitcher over seers here. So normally I would say, you're
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: getting the better starter here with the more rested team
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: that looks pretty good and sat and you're getting Toronto
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: as an underdog. San Diego's about minus one point fifteen here,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: fifty two percent of the tickets on San Diego, eighty
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on Toronto. But Bieber, I,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm just waiting to see what we're gonna
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: get out of him here man. And again he doesn't
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers either, So I don't really want
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: to do that. If I was gonna play this game,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: I think I might try the over I know I
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: don't love is when a team is on rest like Toronto,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: because their offense might be cold and it's not good anyway,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: and you know, the bullpen gets rested, So I don't
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: know if I really necessarily love that eight and a
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: half is the total. It's gonna it's never gonna be
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: that high in San Diego. But also I think these
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: pictures do get a little bit of respect from the market,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: especially Bieber seventy two percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: seventy nine percent of the cash on the over. But
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: given what these pitchers matchup numbers look like, I think
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: over might be the look there. Arizona and Dodgers. Dodgers
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: are staying at home after being in Colorado in a
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: close series, and Dodgers had yesterday off, so the Dodgers
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: have a rest edge and they're staying at home. Arizona's
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: traveling in from San Diego, so they're staying in southern California,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: which isn't too bad. Arizona did have to use some
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, though they used two. Arizona's bullpen is
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: ranked fifth, but I still don't think they're that good.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: Their era is not that good. Dodgers are six but arrested,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: and I think they're the better bullpen anyway, and in
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: fact they're they're actually tied in whips. So the Dodgers
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: should be ranked ahead of Arizona here because they have
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: the better ERA. Dodgers are number one in offense. They're
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: way better than Arizona at twenty sixth. So the Dodgers
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: I think, have a bullpen edge and a hitting edge here,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: and they have a starting pitching edge. But obviously you're
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: gonna have to pay for all of that. You're paying
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: a huge price for the Dodgers. EDWARDO. Rodriguez is pitching
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: for Arizona. He's had a good season two point two
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: five ERA, one point one to six whip, not bad
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: at all. He's not as good on the road two
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: point eight three road ERA. But the advanced analytics guys
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: will all tell you they think E. Rod is gonna
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: regress here. It hasn't really happened yet though. He's still
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: pitching really well. Uh he's given up two or fewer
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: on runs in every start going back through June twelfth.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: He's given up more than three I think only like
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: twice on the season. Yeah, he's pitching well. He's along
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: very few hits, he's not really walking that many guys,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: but his strike got raded his way down. So as
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: I was about to say, the advanced analytics guys don't
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: like that, because you know, he's pitching to contact, But
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: I am kind of the opinion that well, I mean,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: if he's consistently not putting guys on the base pass,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: I think that, you know, you got to give him
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: some credit for that. So I'm somewhere in the middle
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: on that. I Rod is having to go up against
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, but he's actually faced them twice this year
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: and he did well in both starts. He held them
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: to one run in six innings at home last time
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: he faced them in early June, and to start the
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: season he pitched here in LA and he gave up
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: no runs in five innings in that We're sorry, one
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: unnurn run in that one in five innings. So he's
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: actually pitched well against the Dodgers this year. However, his
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: career against them is not good. One hundred and forty
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: seven at bats three twenty average, nine thirty one ops,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: thirty three to fifteen strike out walk ratio. That's not good.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: So the Dodgers might be able to get to him here,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: and I think he's at a disadvantage against show. He
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: was obviously the better of the starters here one point
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: seven to ninety ra point nine to five whip he's
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse at home two point h
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: nine homye ra, But I mean I wouldn't worry too
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: much about that. He's been a little bit more human recently,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: but still pitching well. I think they actually gave him
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit of extra rest before his last start
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: to try to, you know, space him out a little bit.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: One concerned though he threw one hundred and ten pitches
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: and six innings in his last start. That is a
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: ton of pitches. He was really inefficient to get through
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: that game against San Diego, and though his pitching line
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: looked pretty good. But that's a little bit worrisome man,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: that he threw that many pitches. And now he's pretty
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: much pitching on schedule here. I think they pushed him
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: back one day. But still a little bit concerning that
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: he threw that many pitches. But he's got a really
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His walk rates low enough, and strike
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: got rate is high, So you know, I don't think
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: he's gonna pitch poorly here. Let's see. He might, but
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think so against Arizona. I mean, they're not
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: a good off and they have not had success against
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: him in forty seven at bats fifteen strikeouts, five walks,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: one seventy average for eighty four ops. That's not good.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: That's not good for the hitting. I mean that is
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: good for Otani. Yeah, I mean, Dodgers seem to have
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: the edge everywhere in this game. But their minus two
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: fifty maybe even heavier than that, So you can't really
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: play the Dodgers here. The money is also fading them
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: ninety three percent of tickets fifty seven percent of the
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: cash on them. I don't like that. I mean for
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. I mean it looks like, yeah, I mean
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: professional money looks like, hey, you know, e Rod, he's
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: actually been al right this year. Maybe he'll be able
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: to keep Arizona in this game. So I think it's
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: really just a value play. Basically, you're getting Arizona at
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: a huge underdog price. I don't really think they're gonna
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: win this game, though, I'm staying away from it, and
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: money is backing the over pretty strongly over eight and
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: a half. I think the way that I would do that,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: I might just go Dodgers team total over in this game,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, even though you're losing Otani's
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: edge that you might have there with him, but I
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: think the Dodgers might be able to get to ear
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: Rod here, even though they haven't this year. But you
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: saw what their overall numbers are against him. Maybe that
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: makes sense. You go with the Dodgers to get maybe
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: like five runs here. Some of it will be against
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: Arizona's bullpen too. Gerald I talked about that. I don't
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: like Atlanta in that game. I mean, they're a public side.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, it just looks I think they probably win,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: but it just looks way too easy. I would not
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: put money on that no way. Like I said, I
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: think the under in the first five is the way
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: to play that game. If you forced me to give
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: out an opinion on that game, you like, you're never
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: gonna get value playing Atlanta with Chris Sale on the mound, Like,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: There's almost never gonna be a situation where I'm gonna
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: do that unless they're up against another like really good
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: team and you're somehow actually getting like a cheap price
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: on it. Colorado at San Francisco is the last game
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: this series started. Yesterday. San Francisco won eight to two.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: But you know, I still don't think much of San
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: Francisco's offense. It's just the thing is they just you know,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: they just played Colorado on the road recently, so that's
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: gonna help their offensive numbers. They're facing Colorado's pitching again here,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: so that's gonna help their offensive numbers. So you know,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: once we get through this stretch, like after the All
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: Star break, there might be some advantages fading San Francisco. Again,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're a good team. Their bullpen has
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: struggled a little bit. Three guys yesterday. Colorado's worse out
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen though, these two guys, but they're the
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: worst bullpen Colorado. They're ere raised below five at least,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: but they're twenty seventh San Francisco's twenty third. I think
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is probably a little bit better than that
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. I think they're overrated offensively at tenth. Again,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: I think their numbers are being skewed by some outlier
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: results plus getting to play in Colorado and stuff. I
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: think their offensive numbers are gonna hit another drop at
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: some point here, maybe not in this series against Colorado though,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: because again they're facing some really bad pitching here. Colorado.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: Their offense has been solid. They're at fourth, although I
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: expect their offensive numbers to drop when they're on the road,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: especially in a pitcher friendly park like this. Maybe not
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: in this game, though Tanner Gordon is pitching for Colorado.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: He's not very good six point five to ninety Ray,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: one point five to nine whip. He is better outside
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: of course field, though it's a small sample, but three
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: point three to two Roady Ray. So he gets smoked
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: in course field, which you know there are obvious reasons
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: for that, but he does pitch a bit better on
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: the road. He did just get killed by San Francisco
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: in course field. They hit four home runs off him there,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: but hit seven strikeouts and two walks in five innings
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: and six hits allowed. So you could argue he got
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky there, and maybe he bounces back
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: and does better on the road against San Francisco this time.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: You look at his overall numbers, his strikeout rate is
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: actually pretty good, his walk rate's not too bad. His
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: hit rate is way too high, though, so that's his problem.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: He's way two hittebom and I still wouldn't want to
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: back him because San Francisco does just put up good
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: numbers against them. Forty three at bats, three zero two average,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: one one thousan thirty six ops, ten to four strikeout
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. So I would still not back Gordon here.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: I don't really think he's gonna be able to bounce
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: back that well. I mean, those numbers are just bad.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is going with Robbie Ray. I thought they
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: might use him yesterday, but they used Carson Pomquist yesterday,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: I think, and I think he actually was decent Robbie Ray.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: He's had a decent season three point four to five RRAY,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: one point two to three whip. He's been better at
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: home two point five home RARA, similar to last year.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: I think, so he pitches better at home. He did
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: just pick up a win. Pitched okay on the road
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: against the same Rocky team in Colorado, so he pitched
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: alright there. But he did walk three guys in six innings,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: which wasn't that great. Give up three runs on five hits,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: four strikeouts. His overall numbers, he's got a really low
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: hit ray, but his walk rate is too high and
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: he loves a lot of home runs, so that's not great.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: Although this is a less home run, could douce the
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: ballpark here. His strike ut rates not very impressive either.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: So he's been hard to hit, but he's pitching the
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: contact and a lot of fly ball contact, which you know,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys, they don't like that, and maybe
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: I don't like that either. In Ray's case, I don't know, man.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: I think against Colorado he doesn't have good numbers though, No,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: he doesn't three Z nine batting over seven to seventy
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: four ohps. I know I remember because I looked yesterday
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: thinking that he might pitch yesterday. Twenty one to four
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: stregout walk ratio is good, sixty eight at bats, but
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: the rest of those numbers are not good. So I
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: think the way to play this game is to go
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: over the total. Let me see here. Where's here? It
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: is National League. The money's back in the under here.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: I don't get it. Sixty five percent of tickets, eighty
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash going under eight and a half.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: I just showed you what the matchup numbers look like.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think either pitcher is really that impressive or anything.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: They both don't have good matchup numbers. Both bullpens are
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: pretty fadeable too, So I think over makes the most sense. Here.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: Money's back in San Francisco a little bit, but it
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: is a very public side. Eighty eight percent of the tickets,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash on them, they're about
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty. I don't think I'd be able to
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: come in and do that, although Ray probably is better
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: than Gordon. San Francisco should win this game, but you know,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: putting money on it at that price not something that
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: I would recommend or want to do again. I think
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: over is the way to go with that. All right, WNBA,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: we have three games here. I don't really love any
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: of this. Atlanta, by the way, was my lean yesterday
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: and they just barely got there with the cover as
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: long as you got the ten and a half in
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: that game yesterday. But you know, I'm not sad that
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: I left that one off of my card. Also, I
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: think the under may not have hit depending on what
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: number you got that was really really close. I think
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: the better numbers were gone by the time I talked
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: about that. Anyway. Golden State at Connecticut here, this is
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: definitely a bit of a mismatch. Golden State's a strong team.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: Connecticut is the worst team in the league. Connecticut might
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: be in a bad spot. They're coming off playing Minnesota
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: pretty tough. They only lost by six here at home
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: two days ago. Possible hangover spot for them here, even
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: though I don't think they're going to overlook a good
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: team like Golden State. They did go to Golden State
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: earlier this year and they lost by twenty seven in
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: that one, So Golden State might overlook Connecticut too. But Connecticut,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: they're in a tough spot I think, coming up that
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: game against Minnesota, so I don't love Connecticut here. Golden
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: State's coming up an easier win over Toronto where they
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: didn't do particularly well in that game. But they do
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: have Indiana next. Maybe they look ahead to that game.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: That's a USA Network game. Caitlin Clark is back, you know,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: so still possible Golden State overlooks this game. I don't know.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: They've won six games in a row, but they do
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: have the momentum here right now. This game's on eye on.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: I don't want anything to do with this game. I
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: don't have a good angle on it. The money is
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: bad backing Connecticut here. Sixty one percent of tickets on
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: Golden State, sixty percent of the causal in Connecticut at
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: about plus five and a half or six or whatever here.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: The numbers actually kind of all over the place. I
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: don't think that that's accurate. Though. There's no way Caesars
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: is hanging a seven and a half on that right now.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know. My inclination would be to lean towards
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: Golden State a little bit in that one. The money
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: has come down. The numbers come down from eight and
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: a half, so it looks like some of the money
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: did pound Connecticut there. I don't know. Is there an
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: injury on Golden State side? I don't know. Let me see.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: It looks like, let me see Gabby Williams game time decision.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: I guess that's what's going on. Yeah, I mean, she's
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: one of their better scores. I guess, so maybe that's
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: the reason why the numbers come down a little bit.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I think I would lean towards
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Golden State. I think it's a tough spot for Connecticut,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: but I don't want to play that game. It's a
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: really low total in the one fifties, which is really crazy.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: So that's that doesn't bode well for a road favorite, though.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: I will say that like laying a price like that
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: on the road with a game, it's supposed to be
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: really low scoring, not really something I would want to do.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: That is an ugly, ugly low total. There. Dallas is
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: at Toronto. Toronto is coming up that game where they
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: did play pretty well against Golden State, and they're staying
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: at home. Toronto's lost a few games in a row here,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: you know, could be maybe a bad spot for on
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: No way, they just played Dallas. I was gonna say,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: if Dallas, you know, if they're unfamiliar with Toronto, might
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: be a bad spot for them. But Dallas already played
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: in Toronto two games ago, so they'll be familiar with it.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: But it might be a zi exact spot because Toronto
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: lost that game at home by thirteen points, so Dallas
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: might overlook them this time. I dug into the box
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: score to see if they were really any outliers here,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: but there really weren't. Like, yeah, I mean, Toronto did
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: have a pretty poor shooting game, but Dallas was kind
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: of mediocre as well. There wasn't a three point outlier,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: there wasn't a free throw outlier. Dallas won the rebound battle,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: they were the better team of the games. There wasn't
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: a whole lot to see there, so I don't really
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: think this is like a zigzag spot that I would
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: want to jump on. I don't really have much of
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: an angle here. Dallas did just beat New York, though.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: I think that would be the biggest angle to work
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: in this game is Dallas just had a big win
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: over New York after beating Toronto, so it could be
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot. Plus, yeah, they still might overlook Toronto
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: just because they just beat them here and Dallas has
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: Chicago next. It's on ESPN. I mean, normally I wouldn't
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: say that's a look ahead spot, but ESPN it is
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: a bigger game on Sunday, and then they play New
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: York again after that, So I would lean to Toronto here.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: You know, based on the situation, I think there are
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: more indicators towards that this game is on I on
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: whatever the money is backing Dallas, which I just don't get.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: I don't understand that you can get Toronto plus seven
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: and a half here or maybe even eight sixty percent
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: of tickets on Toronto sixty six percent of the cash
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: on Dallas. Yeah. I don't get that market read at all.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: I think Toronto is the way to play that if
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play it, and I think, you know, it
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: might debatably be the better of these three games in
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: my opinion, because Dallas, I mean again, they could overlook
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: Toronto after beating them here two games ago. Plus Dallas
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: has had that huge win over New York, so I
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: don't know that was a win for us on the show.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: By the way, speaking of wins on the show, we
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: did win with LA in their last game too. They
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: could be in a let down spot. They're playing tonight
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: against Chicago. LA. They just beat Indiana, a big, big
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: win for them, beating Indiana in Caitlin Clark's return could
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: be a let down for LA. And they have Atlanta
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota coming up, so those are big games on deck.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: So maybe they overlook Chicago here. Man, I don't think
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: they've played them this year. Chicago, They've had some struggles
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: with some injuries, so so actually maybe this game is
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: the best game on the board here Chicago. I like Chicago,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: but Chicago is coming up a win over Phoenix. You know,
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's really gonna put them in
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: a let down spot or any That was a decent
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: win for them, though now they're going to l They
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: do have an ESPN game against Dallas next. Like I said,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: I don't really think they're gonna overlook LA though. LA
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: is still without Kelsey Plumb by the way, so they're
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: still down their best player. Chicago is I think still
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: without Yeah, Skyler Diggins, she's still out. She's one of
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: their best players. They do have some of their other
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: better players back though, like Cardoso, I think miss time
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: earlier this year. Now, what's interesting here is the market read.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: You're looking at this game, and this game is basically
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: like a pick the winner type of game. LA is
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: only like a one point favorite here. I think the
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: public might look at this and think, how's that possible
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: when Chicago's seven and fourteen. LA just beat Caitlin Clark
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: and they're nine and eleven, So it looks way too
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: easy like pick the winner, Like it looks way too
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: easy to play LA, Like how could you possibly get
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: such a cheap price on LA with the oddsmakers are
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: telling you these two teams are pretty closely matched here,
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: So that has been looking towards Chicago as well. It's
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: one of those like misleading lines here as far as
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: Chicago was concerned, Yeah, they already talked about them. They
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: beat Phoenix in their last game. This is the I
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: agree with the market on this one. This is the
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: one game where I actually agree with the market. Read here,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: Chicago fifty three percent of tickets, fifty seven percent of
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: the cash. It's not a strong market, read But I
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: would play Chicago here plus the one point or one
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: and a half or whatever. You know. I actually, I yeah,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: I think that's the best game. Actually, I think that's
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: better than playing Toronto. Plus the market is at least
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: more in line with the of you do it that way,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: and it's one of those misleading lines where it looks
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: way too easy to play LA. I don't think I'm
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: gonna get there with that one either, But yeah, I mean,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: I guess yeah, I think Chicago, out of the WNBA games,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: I think that's the best game to play. And then
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: we have a World Cup. We have Spain and Belgium.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: As we know, I have Spain winning in my bracket.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: Morocco didn't do well yesterday, by the way. Their offense
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: was just non existent in that game yesterday. I mean,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: it was a close game for a while, but France
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: finally got a couple of goals there so advanced, which
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: I did have in my bracket, but I have Spain
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: beating them, so obviously I need Spain to beat Belgium.
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: This is this afternoon. It's a Fox game in Englewood, California. Spain,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: I think, is coming in from playing in Texas in Houston,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: I think, or Arlington, I forget, and Belgium is coming
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: down from Seattle, so Belgium is playing in the Pacific
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: time zone. Still, this game is a little bit hard
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: for me to read. Spain is the favorite. They're minus
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: won sixty on the three away line, so they're probably
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: like minus two seventy maybe even heavier than that to
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: advance here. I think Spain will advance. I think they're
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit under the radar, even though they did
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: just beat Portugal, which you know, that worries me a
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: little bit that I think people might put some weight
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: into that win because oh my god, they beat Ronaldo,
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: you know, and it was a dramatic win. Spain won
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: in stoppage time so it didn't have to go to
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: extra time. Spain was the better team in the game
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: expected goals wise, they won one point sixty nine two
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: point sixty three, so they were expected to win this game.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: More along the lines of like two to one sort of.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: They won the possession battle, though not by much. They
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: had the better offensive output in the game, they had
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: the better scoring chances and whatever, so Spain legitimately won
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: that game. But you know, I think people might put
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: more weight into Belgium's win over the US, which is
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: really really stupid. But everybody thought the US was gonna
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: win that game. I obviously didn't. I should have been out.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: I should have given that out as a play on Belgium.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: But maybe Belgium is gonna be, you know a little
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: bit more feeling high on themselves, and everybody's gonna kind
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: of up Belgium, you know, in their minds, because oh
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: my god, Belgium just beat the host. They beat the
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: US in the US and they slaughtered them. And yeah,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: Belgium did outplay them in the game, you know, expected
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: goals wise, Belgium won the game in that regard to
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: basically two to It was two point zher one two
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: points sixty three. Although some of the US won the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: possession battle. I don't know how that happened, especially given
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: what the expected goals looked like. Belgium had way more
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: good chances and scoring chances. So yeah, Belgium legitimately won
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: that game. I don't I still don't know what was
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: going on with the possession percentage there, but yeah, so yeah,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: I mean Belgium. You know, I'm not gonna say that
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: they well maybe they did look too good in that game,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: which I think in the public's minds. I think they're
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: somehow gonna give Belgium more credit for that win then
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: they gave Spain. So I do like Spain in this game.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: I think Spain's being overlooked. They're a very strong team.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be the strongest team Belgium is faced. I mean,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: Belgium really has not been battle tested here, dude. They
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: played Egypt, Iran, New Zealand. Senegal was their biggest test
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: the US. I really don't think is that good. And
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: now Spain is by far gonna be the best team
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: they face. Spain is more battle tested in that they
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: played Portugal, so that's at least a good thing. Portugal
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: is the best opponent that either of these teams is faced.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm gonna lean Spain here. If you're gonna
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: play it, you know, you know, I guess you do
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: have to just suck it up and lay the minus
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: one sixty money line in the get it take them
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: to win in the first ninety plus stoppage time, you
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: know that. I think that's the way to do it.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really have a great read on this game otherwise,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I don't know. I guess if
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: you wanted to do something like spain over their team
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: total maybe. I mean, I have this game pegged as
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: a higher scoring game yesterday game, which I did lean
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: under in yesterday's game, and that that did hit the
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: under you know, it was under two and a half.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't have a great read on that.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: So anyway, Yeah, I think that's gonna do it. Man,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to find some more soccer angles to
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: try to play. Maybe tomorrow there are too the other
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: two games in this round, or tomorrow, so maybe I'll
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: find something tomorrow. We'll see. That's gonna do it. My
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: only playsta and being selective. Here are under seven and
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: a half in Cleveland and Miami, me in baseball, and Houston.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: Astro's money line. That's it. I'll learn it tone on Twitter,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: learn it on on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: listen on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Let's get to five
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: hundred subscribers here. Man, uh covered in you because my
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: yukee channel on YouTube. But again, I don't know when
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: my voice is coming back. Man, I gotta do something
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: about the show, like I don't know. Maybe I have
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: to soundproof this room or change I gotta change something, man, Yeah,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. What else is I
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: gonna say? Oh yeah, Patreon dot comversation, learn it toe
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: and you can support me there. Loser Cast every Tuesday night,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: New York Giants, g Spot Podcast. I think that's gonna
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: do it. Have a good one, have a good start
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: to the weekend. Everybody peace, but.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: Don't you go quiet.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: Don't you play it from the flow.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: Your name steal means something new, somebody for show.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: Down?
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 4: Baby, look at me, nic hold on, hold on nothing.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on, hold on. Let me for you.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: That bites hot, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now