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Travelers Championship - PGA DFS | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | First Look · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All systems go clear. Good afternoon, Happy Monday. Another week
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: of PGA Tour, DFS, PGA Tour content and everything in between.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Shimer Nation is not gonna take any weeks off outside
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: of the Zerich. We might take the Zurich off, but
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: hopefully you guys aren't feeling too much of a major hangover.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you thought in the comments, like
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  Speaker 1: your final overall take scale of one to ten, US Open, Shinnacock,
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  Speaker 1: I'm giving it a strong eight point eight, a strong
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: a point eight. I thought it was drama till the end,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of fun. We saw different days, different types
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  Speaker 1: of scoring. We saw a low round or two, we
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  Speaker 1: saw some carnage. You can't you can't beat it in
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  Speaker 1: my opinion, Yeah, like is the occasional plus one winning
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  Speaker 1: score twenty eighteen? Chcock cool? We weren't gonna get that.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: We were not gonna get that. What was doing? He
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  Speaker 1: score five under four under? I thought it was gonna
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  Speaker 1: be four under before the week started, nailed the handicap,
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  Speaker 1: So hopefully you guys cash and su regard. I didn't
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  Speaker 1: have my best DFS or betting week, but it was
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  Speaker 1: a great watch, so nonetheless I am happy ready to
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  Speaker 1: talk Travelers Championship TPC River Highlands a golf course we
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  Speaker 1: see year in, year out, a golf course we are very,
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  Speaker 1: very very familiar with. So instead of going through the
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  Speaker 1: full stread full thread, thirty two tweets, I think it
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  Speaker 1: was very basic handicap. I just want to go through
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  Speaker 1: the spike numbers, what the top five in the leader
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  Speaker 1: board did not at the Travelers Championship, what they did
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  Speaker 1: leading into the Travelers Championship, because I think lead in
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  Speaker 1: form is more telling than just a one off what
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  Speaker 1: you did in a given week, because you could do
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  Speaker 1: anything in a given week. If you're doing something consistently
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  Speaker 1: for weeks leading up, I think that's a better way
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  Speaker 1: to predict golf courses. So let's bring the screen up
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  Speaker 1: and talk some leading form, some spike stuff, some stuff
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  Speaker 1: from TBC River Highlands. So last year's top ten finishers,
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  Speaker 1: their last ten starts entering the Travelers Championship, accuracy versus
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  Speaker 1: the field average, and approach play, plus their spikes in
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  Speaker 1: those regards. Spike is defined as a five percent or
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  Speaker 1: greater threshold in terms of accuracy or distance, or a
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  Speaker 1: plus four strokes gained metric, So kicking Bradley winner last
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  Speaker 1: year ten starts letting in. He was positive inaccuracy this
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  Speaker 1: is driving accuracy by the way, five out of ten times,
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  Speaker 1: and he spiked five times in that regards. Approach was
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  Speaker 1: much more solid eight out of ten, four spikes. Tommy
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  Speaker 1: seven positive, seven positive accuracy driving weeks leading in nine positive,
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  Speaker 1: nine positive approach weeks leading in with some spikes there
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  Speaker 1: Russ more positive driving, more positive approach nine in each category.
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  Speaker 1: Absolute machine Harris English six out of ten positive accuracy
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  Speaker 1: driving weeks, seven out of ten positive approach weeks leading in.
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  Speaker 1: Jason Day not the strongest profile here, only three accuracy
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  Speaker 1: not only three accuracy positives, one spike and seven out
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  Speaker 1: of ten approach positive. So you could see the accuracy
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  Speaker 1: and the approach leading in is very, very very correlative
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  Speaker 1: to success. That's kind of what we're looking for. And
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  Speaker 1: that's not rocket science, guys. That's what we see at
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  Speaker 1: TPC River Highlands year in year out, hit fairways, hit greens,
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  Speaker 1: make some punt. This is a TPC golf course, not
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  Speaker 1: the most difficult handicap in the world. But let's take
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  Speaker 1: a look at some of the winning scores, weather and
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  Speaker 1: everything in between. So last few years we saw Keegan
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  Speaker 1: win at fifteen and twenty three, Scotti at twenty two,
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  Speaker 1: Xander at nineteen, Harris at thirteen, DJ at nineteen. We
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  Speaker 1: haven't seen much rain leading leading into the week over
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  Speaker 1: in Hertford, Connecticut, in Cromwell, Connecticut, to be exact, but
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna get some rain on Tuesday morning. It's looking
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  Speaker 1: like from midnight to ten am and a little bit
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  Speaker 1: in the afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, we're gonna get some rain.
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  Speaker 1: Not the most amount of rain in the world. They
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  Speaker 1: should be able to keep the golf course how they
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  Speaker 1: wanted to. And then again on Friday morning. Friday afternoon
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  Speaker 1: Saturday is gonna be a little heavier, it looks like
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  Speaker 1: as well, so expect some rain, maybe a few delays.
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  Speaker 1: Damn it, I lost to forecast. Let's bring it back up.
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  Speaker 1: But in terms of the week long forecast, wins Thursday
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  Speaker 1: it looks like it's going to be really, really calm.
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  Speaker 1: Expect for their first round leader to come from this
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  Speaker 1: am group because the wind's going to pick up in
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  Speaker 1: the afternoon. Friday. It looks somewhat similar all day, so
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  Speaker 1: maybe a potential AMPM split. I'll call it point four
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  Speaker 1: Strokes AMPM split this week. Saturday looks pretty calm all day,
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  Speaker 1: and then Sunday maybe in the PM it's going to
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  Speaker 1: be a little bit more difficult. We'll have better weather
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  Speaker 1: forecast for the weekend once we get into the showdown stuff,
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  Speaker 1: but that is the weather. In terms of contest selection
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  Speaker 1: for the week, I am loving this PGA Tour. Twenty
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  Speaker 1: five k driving range, five entry max one fifty For
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  Speaker 1: each entry you get, enter that five times. That is
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  Speaker 1: what's one fifty times five five times one fifty equals
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  Speaker 1: seven to fifty. I didn't know basically, mass, so I
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  Speaker 1: use my calculator. Nonetheless, if you're entering this five times
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  Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty five entrance, if every person were
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  Speaker 1: to enter this contest five times, that would mean it'd
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  Speaker 1: be you versus thirty six other people. If you enter
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  Speaker 1: this five times, have massive overlay, because I can promise
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  Speaker 1: you not everybody is going to enter this contest five times.
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  Speaker 1: If you have five lineups, you got to be in
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  Speaker 1: it to win it. You have more chances to win.
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  Speaker 1: Why not finish first? Why not have two from eighth
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  Speaker 1: to tenth? Bang, there's six k right there. You only
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  Speaker 1: entered seven to fifty. I think this is a great
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  Speaker 1: strip payout structure. Tenth place gets that ten percent. This
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  Speaker 1: is beautiful. I think it's a nice small enough contest,
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  Speaker 1: only have to be thirty six other people, if including
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  Speaker 1: the overlay. I love it. I absolutely love this contest
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  Speaker 1: for tomorrow. I mean sorry, sorry for this week looking
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  Speaker 1: at the selection, looking at the sorry the pricing. Scotty
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  Speaker 1: leads the way. Tommy, Xander and Matt fits all over
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  Speaker 1: ten k and maybe get a little bit of a
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  Speaker 1: drop from especially Cameron Young Cameron back in the nine
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  Speaker 1: k range. See some other golfers getting a little bit
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  Speaker 1: of a drop only goes down to six k with
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  Speaker 1: Brian Campbell, Lucas Clebber, Johnny Vegas. First golfer I wanted
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  Speaker 1: to look on this in this range is Tommy Fleetwood
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  Speaker 1: three hundred. Tommy finished. Who could forget Tommy, I guess
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  Speaker 1: blowing this event last year. He played so well over
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  Speaker 1: the weekend only to miss a very very short put,
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  Speaker 1: lose two and a half strokes to the field on
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  Speaker 1: Sunday to lose this event. Oh Tommy, Oh Tommy. But
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  Speaker 1: this is about the time of the summer last year
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  Speaker 1: where Tommy became TPC Tommy, it felt like every TPC
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  Speaker 1: golf course he played mark After this mark, he was
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  Speaker 1: like in contention coming off of another T eleven. That's
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  Speaker 1: T four, T eleven, T eleven in three straight starts.
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  Speaker 1: Tommy is back in order after maybe a little bit
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  Speaker 1: of a mediocre stretch from the PGA Championship to the Masters.
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  Speaker 1: But Tommy's back in order, gaining strokes in all four categories,
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  Speaker 1: all greening. That's exactly what you want to see Tommy
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  Speaker 1: Fleetwood doing, and I love it again. I think his
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  Speaker 1: floor is so, so, so high. I don't see how
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  Speaker 1: Tommy finishes worse than like tenth in this event. And
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  Speaker 1: at ten three, is that his price? Ten to three? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: come on, I think it's a great price for Tommy Fleetwood,
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  Speaker 1: the next golfer I wanted to look at. Down the
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  Speaker 1: board comes to eighty six hundred dollars. Chris got her up.
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  Speaker 1: Chris got up eighty six hundred dollars, had another nice
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  Speaker 1: ball striking week, and the around the green play has
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  Speaker 1: just been killing him. He's doing what we want him
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  Speaker 1: to do, though, driving it well, hitting nice approach shots
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  Speaker 1: and gaining strokes putting. Chris Gottrup has not lost strokes
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  Speaker 1: putting since Riviera. That is quite the stretch. That's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
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  Speaker 1: ten straight starts in which Chris gotterr Up has gained
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  Speaker 1: strokes on the green. That is not That is not common.
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  Speaker 1: Golfers just don't get Golfers have great putters all the time,
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  Speaker 1: but even the best putters have a week off where
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  Speaker 1: they're losing zero point seven strokes. That's nine straight I
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  Speaker 1: just said nine straight weeks of Chris got Up gaining
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  Speaker 1: strokes on the greens. And we know he can hit
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  Speaker 1: that low burner. He's he's obviously a mega long driver,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: but he can hit that low burner. He can hit
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  Speaker 1: fine fairways. Do what he did with the Sony Open.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not saying like Sony Open, I was all about
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  Speaker 1: bombing gathering, even though it was like a position on
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  Speaker 1: golf course. I don't see the around sawgrass. But I
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  Speaker 1: trust Chris Goddrup to dial it down a little bit
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  Speaker 1: and hit fairways if he needs to six hundred dollars
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  Speaker 1: getting strokes out, approach what he's doing on the putting greens.
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  Speaker 1: Sign me up strokes gating Northeast. I'm in to Chris
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  Speaker 1: Gottter up at eighty six hundred dollars. Next thing I
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: want to touch on is a little bit of site information.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So first of all, you're going to use this code
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  Speaker 1: boots get you free access to everything up here, so
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: you can see this new slate station we have. It's
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be myself, Tambo and Hoop getting their picks up
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: their core as well as the slate breakdown, ownership thoughts,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: roster thoughts, my outright selections, and a ton of other stuff. DraftKings,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: course fit rankings. We have the showed on information obviously
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: that's later in the week. We are the projections, the stone,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the Stone two point zero, all of this stuff. Can
• 9:45
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  Speaker 1: go here. Join the nation, Join the Nation. You can
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: get all access to every single sport. Code boots works
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  Speaker 1: on any of these. You just on the golf stuff.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: You can go to single sport PGA plus content opt
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  Speaker 1: you want to optimizer, bang right here, code boots get it.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Get SABERSIM help us help you, because everyone in this
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: discord is using the Sabersim stuff. It is so so,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: so so so helpful, so impressive, and I definitely recommend,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I definitely recommend. So next thing I want to do
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: is touch on the betting board. Scottie Scheffler leads the
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  Speaker 1: way no surprise at four and a half to one Xander,
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  Speaker 1: Tommy Ludwig, Kim, Matt Fitz. First thing we wanted to
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  Speaker 1: touch on comes this twenty range see Kim twenty three
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  Speaker 1: and a half to one. Right here. It's some nice
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: ball striking from Seawell Kim, even though he did miss
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  Speaker 1: the cut at Shinnakok. Hit the ball really well, gain
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  Speaker 1: four strokes on approach in just two rounds. Some tough
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  Speaker 1: short game from sew Kim. It was minus four point
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  Speaker 1: five strokes about short game. We know who short game
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  Speaker 1: has been really really solid outside of that, and this
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: is a much better course for seaw Kim, even though
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have the greatest course of three in the world.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: We know what I almost called him, Pete Dye. We
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: know what Seawick Kim does at Pete Dye tracks, and
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: we know what he does at at TPC tracks. I
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: think he's in a bounce back. He hasn't put it
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  Speaker 1: great here, but the putter has been really solid this
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  Speaker 1: year and has been solid recently outside of last week.
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  Speaker 1: So I look Seawock came around this twenty four to
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  Speaker 1: twenty three to one range. I think it's a great selection.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I think he's playing. He's played so damn well this
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  Speaker 1: year to not pay it all or something. I think
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  Speaker 1: he can get into the mix, and I think Seawill
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  Speaker 1: came is a great selection this week. Second game I
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: wanted to touch on goes down the board a little
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  Speaker 1: bit longer. Why is this guy fifty four to one
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  Speaker 1: PGA champion, finished eleventh of the US Open, gain strokes
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  Speaker 1: in every single category, And we're talking about a course
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  Speaker 1: driving accuracy and approach that is exactly what Aaron Rai does.
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  Speaker 1: He's played this golf course three times, never missed the cut.
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  Speaker 1: I know this sometimes no cut, but the approach play
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  Speaker 1: has been weird. Aaron Ry's approached play has been green
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: since Sawgrass. I know Sawgrass asks you kind of similar
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  Speaker 1: questions to this golf course, but I don't see a
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  Speaker 1: world in which Aaron Rye really loses too many strokes
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  Speaker 1: on approach. Here he's hitting the ball too well. He
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  Speaker 1: makes too much sense for this golf course, and I
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: think at fifty five to one, you could do a
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  Speaker 1: lot worse than Aaron Rye. So that's who I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at in terms of the betting board. See who kim
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rye DFS plays. I like Chris Gottterup, I like
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  Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood at the top. The next thing I want
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  Speaker 1: to do is touch on a chalky golfer, a potential pivot,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and then the one golfer that I am on as always,
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  Speaker 1: So a potential chalky golfer who do I think is
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: going to come in maybe a little bit more owned
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  Speaker 1: than they had been recently, maybe a little bit more
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  Speaker 1: owned than I think they should be. That is Colin
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Moore Rikawa. Colin Morrikawa nice week at the US Open,
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  Speaker 1: gained just under six strokes ball striking, He's seventeen bad
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: shipping week putted tremendously. A nice week at for Colin Markawa.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: He's played decent here. He always makes sense on paper here,
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  Speaker 1: but he hasn't really panned out. I think seeing Colin
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Morrikawa at ninety two hundred dollars, it's more the price
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: plus what he just did at Chinnacock, which doesn't scream.
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  Speaker 1: Colin Morrikawa is going to have him being more chalky
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  Speaker 1: than he probably should be. So Colin Morrikawa Chalky golfer
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  Speaker 1: of the week. Next thing I want to do is
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  Speaker 1: the pivot of the week. Now, like I always say,
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  Speaker 1: does this mean that this golfer is a pivot off
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  Speaker 1: of Colin Morrikawa. No, I'm saying this golfer is a
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: pivot in the range that they are in, and that
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: is Victor Hobland eighty five hundred dollars. If you look
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: at the pricing, Victor Hoblin is between Chris goddr up
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: coming off of an OK week, but Chris got up
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: is a trending name defending champion Kegan Bradley. I think
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Victor Hoblin gets squeezed out because he played poorly last week,
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  Speaker 1: missed the cut, but just before that finished solo third
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  Speaker 1: at the Canadian Open. The approach place still there. I
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  Speaker 1: trust him to figure out that driver, and the dude
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: is a grinder. Dude is a great player. He can
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: he can pop at a moment to notice. He withdrew
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: last year after three rounds with an injury, but he
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: was getting eight point two strokes on approach. I am
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: so in on Victor Hoblin in like a bounce back
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  Speaker 1: spot eighty five hundred dollars when he might be not
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  Speaker 1: that chalky either. Where is he on the betting board?
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Even Victor Hoblin is forty one to one, Like, come on,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: this dude wins too often, too high a rate to
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  Speaker 1: be at the price and at the number that he
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: is at. So Victor Hoblin forty one to one is
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  Speaker 1: the pivot of the week for me. Next thing I
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: want to touch on before we get to the one
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: guarfer I am on is the model. Every single week
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: we model try to find ways to win. The model
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit weak to us recently, but
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I think we're due for a nice little bounce back
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: one ten to one step. I mean it's about time
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: for Step to pop. I feel like he is my
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: most tipped well like a month in a row. It's
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: at one point this season and then he like didn't
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: do anything one ten to one. I'm in on set
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: rskel Ogle's let's do it all right. Model of the week.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: We have posted on Twitter, but if you didn't see it,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: we have Scotti number one tied for second, Victor and
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Siwu fourth and fifth, Colin Morikawa, Russell Henley, sixth, tie
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: for sixth, Aaron Ray, Alex Fitzpatrick and Louvig o'bert and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: then ninth, JJ Spond and Brent Stedecker. As you can see,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the model was accuracy plus birty your better percentage, Approach
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: plus birty your better percentage, Wedges approach and accuracy approach, accuracy,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: course history and birdier better percentage. We made fifteen models
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: aggregated into one model and this is what we got.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: So that's what we got here. The one golfer that
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I am on for this week has not been mentioned,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: is not in the model at all, but that is Akhebatia.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Akhebatia played pretty well in this event last year, ended
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: up or sorry two years ago, ended up finishing T five.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Just could not get anything going in round four last
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: year playing with Scotty and Tom cam In in threes.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: But he had his best ball striking week. What is that?
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Just under under just under five strokes ball striking, his
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: best ball striking week since Sawgrass, which is a golf course.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: He played really well at I like him at t
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  Speaker 1: PC River Highlands I like him when driving accuracy is important.
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  Speaker 1: I like him when the winds aren't too high and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: they're not too high. So Akhabatia is the one golfer
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that I am on. As always, the song of the
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: day for the week before weigure out here is going
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: to be echo by Star Set. Definitely, definitely definitely go
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: check it out. A nice little banger there, So that
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: does it. That is the first look. We will be
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: back Thursday afternoon with the showdown content. Any questions, you
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: guys know where to find me. As always, let's ship it.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Peace out.