Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Is Crypto A Safe Play Right Now?📉Bitcoin Update

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Is Crypto A Safe Play Right Now?📉Bitcoin Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:05
Speaker 1: My name is Paul Bara.
0:06
Speaker 2: Welcome back in the tech path. Let me thank our
0:08
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0:10
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0:42
Speaker 2: The question is crypto a safe play right now? And
0:46
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are looking at this,
0:48
Speaker 2: especially where gold is app just on a skyrocket all
0:51
Speaker 2: time high. You look at some of the equities out
0:53
Speaker 2: there that in its position, the pressure from bricks, So
0:57
Speaker 2: everybody's wondering with this volatility of the election and what
1:00
Speaker 2: could happen after the election, where does it stand.
1:03
Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll be able to answer all that for you.
1:05
Speaker 1: This is a big week.
1:06
Speaker 2: Right now, five Magnicent seven reporting in, you got Alphabet reporting, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple,
1:12
Speaker 2: And also think about it this way, you got even
1:14
Speaker 2: McDonald's reporting this week. So a lot of happening over
1:17
Speaker 2: there on the equity side. There could be some opportunities
1:20
Speaker 2: out there for sure, and especially if you look at
1:24
Speaker 2: scenarios that are playing around with Tesla. There's a lot
1:26
Speaker 2: of things happening right now on the markets in general.
1:29
Speaker 2: Don't forget also that we've got some rate cuts ahead
1:31
Speaker 2: of US. Canada slashes rates by another half, going down
1:35
Speaker 2: to three seven five Thurst right cut. Canada was also
1:37
Speaker 2: the first G seven nation to cut. That's a big deal,
1:41
Speaker 2: but it is falling behind GDP. Per capita is dropping
1:43
Speaker 2: two percent annually. I think this is a problem that
1:45
Speaker 2: Canada's continued to have. If it were to keep base
1:48
Speaker 2: for the US economy, it'd be about eight and a
1:50
Speaker 2: half percent larger, sixty two hundred more Canadian, but that
1:52
Speaker 2: is not necessarily going to be the case. This is
1:55
Speaker 2: a problem when you get bad actors in your organizations,
1:59
Speaker 2: especially within your political side of things, and I think
2:02
Speaker 2: that's what's coming on in Canada. Other points I want
2:05
Speaker 2: to get to right here. Macro event's going to drive
2:08
Speaker 2: major volatility in the crypto market. A few things that
2:11
Speaker 2: are pointing out in this article that I think are interesting.
2:14
Speaker 2: Non farm payrolls key highlight this week. We could see
2:18
Speaker 2: numbers coming in quite soft November first, which could drive
2:22
Speaker 2: a large amount of movements in the financial market. So
2:24
Speaker 2: that's going to be playing into this. And also a
2:26
Speaker 2: lot of people economists looking at the non farm payrolls
2:30
Speaker 2: they say may increase by one.
2:31
Speaker 1: Hundred and twenty five thousand jobs a month.
2:33
Speaker 2: After surging by two fifty four. Now you say increase,
2:37
Speaker 2: but really that's trending down when you can compare to
2:40
Speaker 2: the previous unemployment rate also seen unchanged a four to one.
2:43
Speaker 2: I don't think that's a good thing. That's still showing
2:46
Speaker 2: very strong unemployment. Weaker then expected report might rate concerns
2:49
Speaker 2: about the economy, and I think that's a big one
2:52
Speaker 2: where a lot of people are going to look at
2:54
Speaker 2: maybe some alternative assets, and some of those could be crypto.
2:59
Speaker 2: The GDP four Q three this is coming in on
3:03
Speaker 2: the thirty f October, so this will be this week.
3:05
Speaker 2: Medium forecast around three to two after a Q two
3:08
Speaker 2: GDP of around three percent. So that's okay within that,
3:12
Speaker 2: but a change in investor sentiment could also drive more
3:14
Speaker 2: demand for bitcoin. And I think that's the question is
3:18
Speaker 2: is bitcoin the play here or are other tokens the
3:22
Speaker 2: play if you're trying to figure out where to go
3:24
Speaker 2: on safe investments. Still see some potential upside here, all
3:28
Speaker 2: of this playing out with the presidential election just a
3:30
Speaker 2: week away, and everybody is concerned about this because you
3:34
Speaker 2: got to think about the worst case scenario that could
3:36
Speaker 2: play out within this, and that is a Trump win,
3:39
Speaker 2: a contesting by the courts. Issues happening around the US
3:44
Speaker 2: with riots and things and craziness like that. Could we
3:46
Speaker 2: see scenarios happen with banks. All kinds of things are
3:50
Speaker 2: really unsettling right now, And I think that's the question
3:52
Speaker 2: everybody's looking at. You look at polymarket right now. Trump
3:56
Speaker 2: continues his commanding lead over on the predictive markets in
4:00
Speaker 2: including the swing states by quite a bit.
4:02
Speaker 1: I'll zoom in on those.
4:03
Speaker 2: Almost every swing state right now. He is holding a
4:06
Speaker 2: commanding lead on Trump. What was surprising me is the
4:10
Speaker 2: fact that he's been able to get in so close
4:13
Speaker 2: on the popular vote. Does that actually get much closer
4:17
Speaker 2: as we start to see the election coming on. By
4:19
Speaker 2: the way, we're going to be doing a huge livestream
4:21
Speaker 2: on election night. We'll be announcing more about that this week,
4:25
Speaker 2: so stick around for that. If you're not subscribed to
4:28
Speaker 2: the show right now, do it take a time hit
4:31
Speaker 2: subscribe right now. It is a big deal because when
4:34
Speaker 2: we do these live streams, it's going to send you
4:36
Speaker 2: out a notification.
4:37
Speaker 1: That way, you'll get notified of that.
4:38
Speaker 2: A lot of big news I think will be dropping
4:41
Speaker 2: on election night, and I think that's going to.
4:44
Speaker 1: Be huge for crypto and really investments, I think in
4:47
Speaker 1: general globally. The other thing that plays into this.
4:51
Speaker 2: Is where we see these betting markets being compared to
4:54
Speaker 2: what's happening in crypto. Here's Matt Siegel coming in from
4:57
Speaker 2: Van k see Me says, political betting markets not dissimilar
5:00
Speaker 2: to bitcoin BET's you know, no for now declines. You know,
5:05
Speaker 2: you look at where it's been in the past. But
5:07
Speaker 2: I think the key here is when you look at
5:09
Speaker 2: the betting markets and the predictory of markets and the
5:12
Speaker 2: comparison to where bitcoin was in the early days, very similar,
5:15
Speaker 2: very similar. Other than the fact that I think it's
5:17
Speaker 2: gone mainstream because nobody was really talking about bitcoin in
5:21
Speaker 2: its early days. Everybody's talking about polymarket in its early days,
5:26
Speaker 2: so pretty interesting stuff here globe and investors are also
5:29
Speaker 2: rushing into US stocks. This is why we're starting to
5:32
Speaker 2: see more push to the US stock market now reaching
5:35
Speaker 2: one hundred forty five billion year to date, most on
5:37
Speaker 2: record tend bill, higher than the previous high scene in
5:40
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, which was massive.
5:43
Speaker 1: And then the.
5:43
Speaker 2: Majority of inflows now one hundred five billion came from Europe,
5:46
Speaker 2: so a lot in forty billion coming information Pacific, So
5:50
Speaker 2: a lot of internationals looking at the equities play as
5:53
Speaker 2: being one of the potentials as the safe play. I
5:58
Speaker 2: still think it's going to be crypto, maybe the top
6:00
Speaker 2: two or three assets within crypto. Part of that I
6:03
Speaker 2: want to get into with what Matt Siegel had to
6:05
Speaker 2: say about this, is it bullish for crypto?
6:07
Speaker 1: Take a look.
6:09
Speaker 2: If there's a lot of liquidity, risk assets seem to
6:11
Speaker 2: go up.
6:12
Speaker 1: Therefore Bitcoin seems to go up and down. It doesn't
6:15
Speaker 1: seem to be a safe haven with risk assets.
6:18
Speaker 3: It seems to move totally correlated with the NASDAK or
6:23
Speaker 3: the magnificent seven or whatever. The correlations change over time.
6:28
Speaker 3: Over a ten year time horizon, the NASDAK correlation with
6:32
Speaker 3: bitcoin is a point one point nine, quite low. Over
6:35
Speaker 3: the last three months, it's a point five, and that's
6:37
Speaker 3: a two and a half year high, and that may
6:40
Speaker 3: be keeping some allocators on the sideline because they want
6:42
Speaker 3: to see it fall. Our bet is that this is
6:44
Speaker 3: a very bullish setup for bitcoin into the election. We
6:47
Speaker 3: saw the exact same pattern in twenty twenty where bitcoin
6:51
Speaker 3: lagged with low volatility and then once a winner was announced,
6:55
Speaker 3: we had a high vowel rally as new buyers come
6:58
Speaker 3: into this market. And that's the great thing about bitcoin
7:00
Speaker 3: is that every day there's new buyers being born. It's
7:02
Speaker 3: kind of like the video game industry. The olds who
7:05
Speaker 3: hate it die off, the new folks are buying it.
7:08
Speaker 3: And what we think is that once the election the
7:11
Speaker 3: result is finalized, Moody's is going to downgrade US sovereign
7:15
Speaker 3: debt and that could be a catalyst.
7:18
Speaker 1: That I think is a big factor.
7:19
Speaker 2: He hit on something right there as the US sovereign
7:21
Speaker 2: debt and getting it downgrade it would be a big,
7:25
Speaker 2: big hit in general for the US dollar and Of
7:28
Speaker 2: course that moves into other topics here, and that is
7:31
Speaker 2: the pressure of dedollarization. One of the things that plays
7:34
Speaker 2: around that is going to be bricks. Now Bricks, We've
7:36
Speaker 2: done a couple.
7:37
Speaker 1: Of videos on that.
7:38
Speaker 2: Go back in our channel watch the last two. We
7:41
Speaker 2: had one that kind of broke down what bricks is doing.
7:44
Speaker 2: And there was one video there that got into it
7:47
Speaker 2: with Scheckner and Scheckner and the concept was around gold
7:50
Speaker 2: which was the better route to take. So go back
7:52
Speaker 2: and watch those videos you'll get learn a little bit
7:54
Speaker 2: of a lesson on bricks. But I want to break
7:56
Speaker 2: into what he had to say around bitcoins.
8:00
Speaker 1: Bricks. Take a look what Siegel had to say.
8:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a non it's a non US asset, it's
8:06
Speaker 3: an emerging markets asset. And while we were all hyperventilating
8:09
Speaker 3: about the election over the last week, bricks had a
8:13
Speaker 3: conference in Russia. There's six new members of bricks this year,
8:16
Speaker 3: so bricks GDP is now greater than the combined GDP
8:20
Speaker 3: of g Seven of the six new members, three of
8:25
Speaker 3: them Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia are now mining bitcoin
8:29
Speaker 3: with government resources. So there is tremendous urgency outside of
8:34
Speaker 3: the US to find a way to circumvent the irresponsible
8:38
Speaker 3: fiscal policy that we've been running here in the US.
8:41
Speaker 3: In fact, Russia announced an initiative there. Sovereign Wealth Fund
8:45
Speaker 3: is going to invest in a regional initiative to build
8:47
Speaker 3: bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure throughout bricks with an idea
8:51
Speaker 3: of settling global trade in bitcoin. So, look, someday, I
8:56
Speaker 3: don't know if it's five years, ten years, Putin's going
8:58
Speaker 3: to die, We're going to look to reintegrate some of
8:59
Speaker 3: the countries into the world financial system and they're going
9:02
Speaker 3: to be trading with bitcoin. What are we going to
9:03
Speaker 3: be doing. We have a model that assumes that by
9:06
Speaker 3: twenty fifty, this is very long term, that bitcoin becomes
9:10
Speaker 3: a reserve asset that's used in global trade and held
9:14
Speaker 3: by global central banks at a very modest two percent weight,
9:18
Speaker 3: And in that model, we arrive at a three million
9:20
Speaker 3: dollar price target for bitcoin. Now that sounds, you know, extreme,
9:24
Speaker 3: but that's a sixteen percent compound annual growth rate for
9:27
Speaker 3: a couple of decades. You know, that's not really that extreme.
9:31
Speaker 3: So into the millions over the medium term is a
9:33
Speaker 3: high conviction call, all.
9:35
Speaker 2: Right, So you can see obviously Vanak very strong. We've
9:38
Speaker 2: shown them, he's been on our show before.
9:41
Speaker 1: They're very bullish.
9:42
Speaker 2: On crypto in general, but I think they themselves are
9:45
Speaker 2: even conservative. He's talking about twenty fifty you know, you
9:49
Speaker 2: look at that, that's almost twenty five years away. I
9:51
Speaker 2: think this happens in the next decade. We are seeing
9:54
Speaker 2: a massive uptick. And he kind of hit on a
9:56
Speaker 2: little bit of that in the fact that you've got
9:58
Speaker 2: so many emerging trees Argentina, Ethiopi, UAE. We know the
10:03
Speaker 2: idea around that you're going to see all sorts of
10:06
Speaker 2: opportunities here when it comes to AI and also blockchain,
10:10
Speaker 2: and I think crypto is going to be one of them.
10:11
Speaker 2: Bitcoin Bitcoin will be a big beneficiary of this.
10:15
Speaker 1: Could it become a reserve asset? Yeah, I think it
10:17
Speaker 1: could be.
10:18
Speaker 2: If you look at this right here, this is and
10:20
Speaker 2: I track this Twitter account. I'm always skeptical of these
10:24
Speaker 2: Twitter accounts that put bricks on their name, but this
10:26
Speaker 2: is talking about Saturday Arabia and now Arabia now hosting
10:29
Speaker 2: top financial leaders including Blackrock, Holme and Sachs City Bank,
10:33
Speaker 2: all in Riod this week.
10:34
Speaker 1: So what is that up to?
10:36
Speaker 2: Well, the likelihood is that we could be seeing some
10:39
Speaker 2: sort of convergence within the global financial system, within a
10:44
Speaker 2: rising GDP representative. He talked about those thirty six countries
10:49
Speaker 2: now outpacing the G seven. I guess you just sit
10:53
Speaker 2: back and think about what I just said there in
10:56
Speaker 2: terms of all the major Western countries that's including Canada,
11:00
Speaker 2: the United States, the UK, Australia, etc. These are massive
11:05
Speaker 2: and have been massive. Are we finally seeing a big
11:08
Speaker 2: shift here going forward? Here's Eric Balschuniz coming in Emory
11:12
Speaker 2: of the University reported about fifteen point eight worth of
11:14
Speaker 2: bitcoin now first endowment to report a Bitcoin ETF position.
11:19
Speaker 1: So again this is just showing.
11:20
Speaker 2: More adoption and also the more acceptance idea behind these
11:25
Speaker 2: assets that were so called risk assets a year two
11:29
Speaker 2: years ago are now in mainstream media every single day.
11:34
Speaker 2: For God's sake, they're using poly market as their polling
11:38
Speaker 2: tool for almost every major news outlet out there. I'm
11:42
Speaker 2: want to go to another clip here, and this clip
11:45
Speaker 2: goes in on Pampleano talking about why companies now are
11:48
Speaker 2: starting to take a step take a look.
11:50
Speaker 4: Well, if you think about corporations, they're just a collection
11:52
Speaker 4: of individuals and individuals in this country who hold cash
11:56
Speaker 4: are going to lose We live in a society where
11:58
Speaker 4: the dollar continues to lose perd power. In my lifetime,
12:01
Speaker 4: over the last thirty years, the dollars lost fifty percent
12:04
Speaker 4: of its purchasing power. So one dollar thirty years ago
12:06
Speaker 4: can only buy you fifty cents of goods today. Well,
12:09
Speaker 4: corporations are no different. And so what a lot of
12:11
Speaker 4: people see is that they believe that they are being
12:13
Speaker 4: safe by putting their money in dollars. But if I
12:16
Speaker 4: told you there was an asset that's guaranteed to lose value,
12:19
Speaker 4: would you go put all of your balance sheet in
12:21
Speaker 4: that asset? Probably not. And so that's where people.
12:24
Speaker 1: You can't guarantee that bitcoin gains value. You can't guarantee that.
12:28
Speaker 4: You can't guarantee that it's going to gain value. But
12:30
Speaker 4: what you can guarantee is the dollar is going to
12:31
Speaker 4: lose value, and all assets priced in dollars are going
12:34
Speaker 4: to continue to go up over a long period of time,
12:36
Speaker 4: whether it's real estate, stocks, bitcoin, or other commodities.
12:40
Speaker 2: Now that's like any you know, asset out there. I
12:42
Speaker 2: still believe that, you know, we are talking about very
12:45
Speaker 2: volatile scenarios. But I think most people watching our show
12:47
Speaker 2: are probably saying, Hey, Paul, this is a five year
12:50
Speaker 2: play for me, a ten year play, a twenty year
12:52
Speaker 2: play for me. And I think if you're looking at
12:54
Speaker 2: it that way, you're in the right place. You're probably
12:57
Speaker 2: in the right place. But if you do compare it
13:00
Speaker 2: to quick in and out trades things of that nature, well,
13:04
Speaker 2: the forecast are a little different. Here's one analyst forecasting
13:06
Speaker 2: a pre election surge on bitcoin, and granted, if you
13:10
Speaker 2: look at where the chart is today, I'll take a
13:12
Speaker 2: look at it in a second. It could be because
13:14
Speaker 2: remember we were just almost sixty five not too long ago,
13:17
Speaker 2: and now we're edging back up near sixty nine. We
13:20
Speaker 2: could break seventy by the end of the week, and
13:22
Speaker 2: all this leading into the election, So be on the
13:25
Speaker 2: lookout here. Profit taking could weigh in on the price
13:27
Speaker 2: of bitcoin, probably after in post election, depends on the result.
13:33
Speaker 2: So we could see another.
13:34
Speaker 1: Push back down to sixty k. Could it be, or
13:37
Speaker 1: it could be one of those things where it's just
13:38
Speaker 1: up into the right. We don't know.
13:40
Speaker 2: Several factors right now supporting bitcoin's potential rise, particularly anticipated
13:43
Speaker 2: interest rate cut we will see next week. Remember that's
13:46
Speaker 2: happening two days after the election, so we may not
13:51
Speaker 2: even have a present by them, but we'll know at
13:53
Speaker 2: least some idea.
13:54
Speaker 1: But they also talked about the two day gap. This
13:57
Speaker 1: is a big deal.
13:58
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see if that has any bearing
14:01
Speaker 2: on federal reserve, especially one that says we're not really
14:06
Speaker 2: involved politically. Microsoft also has placed an assessment of investing
14:10
Speaker 2: in bitcoin. This is on the ballot for its twenty
14:11
Speaker 2: twenty four annual shareholder We covered that over the weekend
14:15
Speaker 2: last week. On whether or not they would do it.
14:17
Speaker 2: I'm still questioning as to whether or not a major
14:19
Speaker 2: company like Microsoft would take the kind of step that
14:22
Speaker 2: maybe an Elon Musk would do with Tesla and he's
14:25
Speaker 2: looking like a hero right now, or someone like a
14:27
Speaker 2: Michael Saylor, who is absolutely looking like what could be
14:30
Speaker 2: one of the best trades in the history of mankind.
14:33
Speaker 2: So lots of opportunity here for sure. This analysi is
14:37
Speaker 2: predicting that bitcoin to trade between sixty six and seventy five.
14:41
Speaker 2: If it hits seventy five over the next week, you're
14:43
Speaker 2: going to see some other assets on the move, So
14:46
Speaker 2: be cautious out there. Be aware if you're in this
14:49
Speaker 2: for the long term?
14:50
Speaker 1: Is this?
14:51
Speaker 2: I think the real question that everybody's going to be asking,
14:53
Speaker 2: is this the high of the market?
14:56
Speaker 1: Is this the high?
14:57
Speaker 2: Would you look at all of the factors playing into this, Securities,
15:01
Speaker 2: where gold is going, the issue of dedollarization, the potential
15:06
Speaker 2: shift of an administration. I think all things are leading
15:10
Speaker 2: to the right levels and that is up.
15:12
Speaker 1: Now does that mean that all coin season is here?
15:15
Speaker 2: I think that everybody's asking the same question, why is
15:17
Speaker 2: he not moving? Why are we not seeing avalanche move? Well?
15:20
Speaker 2: I think there's still some rabbits to come out of
15:23
Speaker 2: the hat for a lot of these all coins. And
15:25
Speaker 2: also I don't think timing is there right now, so
15:27
Speaker 2: you can kind of see it's still bitcoin season holding in.
15:30
Speaker 2: You kind of see the potential of where we could
15:33
Speaker 2: slide into all coin season. But we've got some time
15:36
Speaker 2: to work into this right now, and I think right
15:40
Speaker 2: now it's security and less volatility, and Bitcoin is probably
15:44
Speaker 2: going to play the pave the way for all of that.
15:47
Speaker 2: If you guys want more of those kind of things
15:49
Speaker 2: where I break down some of the charts and just
15:51
Speaker 2: where our sentiment data is, make sure and get in
15:53
Speaker 2: on the diamond circle. Also follow me out there on
15:56
Speaker 2: X It's at Paul Barn. We'll catch you next time.
15:58
Speaker 2: Right now, on tech path
16:02
Speaker 1: To meet the DIF