Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BREAKING: Fed CONFIRMS $200k Bitcoin in 150 Days?! | EP 1316
Transcript
- 0:00The Fed might have just confirmed that Bitcoin is headed
- 0:04to 200K in the next 150 days, but it might not be for the
- 0:08reasons we all think. Yes, Jerome Powell just signaled
- 0:12rate cuts are coming this year, actually September and possibly
- 0:16in October. And the last time we saw rate
- 0:19cuts in 2024, a Bitcoin pumped by 70% in a matter of weeks.
- 0:25This would signal a Bitcoin rally to about 200 K by the end
- 0:29of the year. And there's a couple of reasons
- 0:32that I think this rate cut schedule could be a little
- 0:35different. But before we get into all that,
- 0:37before we get into the speculations, let's get into
- 0:40today's news. So of course, I'm not alone.
- 0:42I got Nico over here. But since I've become the macro
- 0:45nerd here, the reigning macro nerd, I will be covering today's
- 0:49segment. So here's the headline from
- 0:51CNBC. We were talking about this all
- 0:53week. Jerome Powell just spoke in
- 0:55Jackson Hole yesterday. We were kind of comparing the
- 0:58fact that there was a Wyoming blockchain summit also in
- 1:01Wyoming just days before the Jackson Hole speech from Jerome
- 1:06Powell and the Fed meeting in Wyoming as well.
- 1:09And this happened about two hours ago, you know, at 10:00
- 1:13Eastern Time this morning we had the Jay Powell speech and the
- 1:17markets are rallying. They are responding to the
- 1:21dovish takes by Jerome Powell, which is extremely bullish for
- 1:26us here as bitcoiners. Anyways, let's go to the
- 1:29headline. The headline is Powell indicates
- 1:31conditions, quote, may warrant interest rate cuts as Fed
- 1:34proceeds, quote, carefully reading the key points Fed
- 1:38share. Fed share Jerome Powell on
- 1:39Friday gave a tepid indication of possible interest rate cuts
- 1:42ahead as he noted a high level of uncertainty that is making
- 1:45the job difficult for monetary policy makers.
- 1:48And, quote, with policy in restrictive territory, the
- 1:52baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risk may
- 1:55warrant adjusting our policy stance, He said during his
- 1:58annual address at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
- 2:01While not addressing White House demands for rate cuts
- 2:03specifically, Powell did note the importance of Fed
- 2:07independence. So they're still beating on the
- 2:09Fed independence meme, but there's been a lot of pressure
- 2:12coming from the Trump administration.
- 2:14We know what the Trump administration wants.
- 2:17They want to speaker dollar and lower interest rates so that we
- 2:19can bring, you know, we can increase the exports in the US,
- 2:24bring imports back to the US And of course, lower interest rates
- 2:28essentially means freer money, easier money to flow, so
- 2:32businesses can take out more loans, which for US bit corners
- 2:36essentially means they're going to expand the money supply.
- 2:39There is nothing stopping this anyways.
- 2:42There is a a couple of quotes. Here before I kind of breakdown
- 2:45what the implications are. While Jerome noted that the
- 2:48labor market remains in good shape and the economy has shown
- 2:51resilience, he said downside dangers are rising.
- 2:54At the same time, he said terrorists are causing risk that
- 2:57inflation could rise again, a stagflation scenario that the
- 3:00Fed needs to avoid. With the Fed's benchmark
- 3:03interest rate at a full percentage point below where it
- 3:07was when Powell delivered his keynote a year ago, and the
- 3:10unemployment rate still low, conditions allow for.
- 3:12Quote us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our
- 3:17policy stance. Quote nonetheless, with policy
- 3:20and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the
- 3:23shifting balance of risk may warrant adjusting our policy
- 3:27stance. That was as close as he came
- 3:30during the speech to endorsing a rate cut that Wall Street widely
- 3:33believes is coming when the Federal Open Market Committee
- 3:36next meets September 16th through to the 17th.
- 3:40And we have Larry Laparde here Dovish.
- 3:42And the evidence is gold's pumping Silver's responding.
- 3:45Well, of course Bitcoin's pumping.
- 3:47I think it pumped like 5K this morning.
- 3:49So things things are working in in our you know, in our favor
- 3:53here. Yes, there's been a lot of talk
- 3:56right now. And as I said, it does feel even
- 3:58though I I was feeling a little bearish in the beginning of the
- 4:00week while we were dumping, it does feel like we are in a bear
- 4:03trap scenario. And if.
- 4:05This is the case if we get. The rate cuts in September and
- 4:08October, guys, it's going to get an extremely bullish end of the
- 4:12year. Now, we have to remember what,
- 4:152025? Yeah, NO2026500 K 2026.
- 4:19But we do we we do have to kind of remember what Jay Powell's
- 4:25stance is here. He does kind of liken himself as
- 4:29a Paul Volcker type. And for you guys that aren't as
- 4:32familiar with, you know, Fed history, monetary history here,
- 4:36Paul Volcker was the 12th chairman of the Federal Reserve.
- 4:40And in the end of the 70s, kind of beginning of the 80s, he was
- 4:45head of the chair during a period of really high inflation.
- 4:49It was aggressive inflation. I think they were calling it,
- 4:52what were they calling it, the great inflation era.
- 4:55And, and he was trying and doing his best to not cut rates.
- 4:59He actually raised rates to an incredible high of like 2021.5%.
- 5:05So this is what Jay Powell has kind of been looking at it at it
- 5:08at himself at like what Jay Powell is doing right now,
- 5:12though potentially Trump is saying he's going to fire him.
- 5:16We all know Jay Powell is out next year.
- 5:18And I don't think he's really doing all of this to just buy
- 5:21for another position. I think what he's trying to do
- 5:24or has been trying to do is to cement his legacy.
- 5:27Again, he looks at himself as a Volcker type.
- 5:30And Paul Volcker, as much as you may not like what he did and you
- 5:35may not like Fed, the Fed chair or people at the Fed, he was
- 5:39able to minimize the inflation during a time of very high
- 5:43inflation in the US. And so Jerome Powell is kind of
- 5:46looking at himself as this type. You know, he is battling Trump.
- 5:49He does know that there is high inflation here.
- 5:52This is unprecedent areas that we are at right now in the
- 5:55twenty 20s. And he wants to fight the
- 5:58inflation because he knows if he does lower interest rates, too
- 6:02bad. It is 2 indicators. 1, we are
- 6:04potentially going into a recession, more like a Great
- 6:07Depression, global depression here.
- 6:10And two, he doesn't want to be the Fed chair that basically
- 6:13capitulated and inflation continues to rise.
- 6:16And so this has been his whole mandate for the last couple of
- 6:19years. He wants to fight inflation.
- 6:22This is why he's probably been holding these interest rates.
- 6:25But another interesting thing did come out of this speech that
- 6:29Powell said that the Fed has adopted a new framework that
- 6:32removes a reference to the central bank seeking inflation
- 6:35that averages 2% overtime and one to it making decisions on
- 6:40employment based on shortfalls from its maximum level.
- 6:43So it sounds like they are going to abandon that 2% inflation
- 6:48rate, which we've been kind of talking about this as bitcoiners
- 6:51for a long time because they can't get the inflation rate
- 6:54under control. They're just going to normalize
- 6:56a higher inflation rate and be like this, this is what's going
- 6:58to keep the economy running. And there's been a lot of
- 7:01speculations that it's probably going to go up to like 4%.
- 7:04That's probably going to be their new mandate.
- 7:06They can no longer hit that 2% inflation rate.
- 7:09So they're going towards, you know, hey, we'll, we'll, we'll
- 7:11just try to hit 4 percent inflation rate.
- 7:13And as we know as Bitcoiners, the true flation here, the true
- 7:16inflation rate is a lot higher than 2%.
- 7:19I did the numbers this morning looking at the M2 money supply
- 7:23and well, the global M2 money supply here.
- 7:26And since 2020, it's expanded by 25%.
- 7:29It went from, I believe I I have the chart here later for you
- 7:32guys, it went from like 76 trillion to about a 96 trillion,
- 7:37almost 100 trillion. That's about a.
- 7:39You know, 25% increase in the money supply and when they
- 7:42expand the money supply, that's where the inflation comes from.
- 7:45So even if they're targeting a 4% inflation, that is still way
- 7:49lower than what the true inflation rate is, at least from
- 7:53our perspective as bitcoiners, it's really probably as high.
- 7:57You know, you can speculate it's as high as 25% the last five
- 8:00years. It's not that good.
- 8:03Anyways, do you guys don't really care about the macro?
- 8:06I know, I know as Bitcoiners. Well, well, I'm talking, I'm
- 8:10talking about it from like a macro perspective or from a
- 8:13Bitcoiners perspective. The whole goal of a.
- 8:15Bitcoiner is we don't have to care about what one guy says to
- 8:19control the monetary policy. But the reason I've personally
- 8:23have kind of been drawn to the macro conversation.
- 8:26It's not so much that all the new influencers coming into
- 8:28Bitcoin are are huge in macro and they're getting engagement
- 8:31from it. It's really since we have
- 8:34politics and the traditional financial system kind of
- 8:37embracing us or rather landing on our front door, you have to
- 8:41kind of get into the mentality of these big financial advisors.
- 8:46And Wall Street is here, Wall Street's a part of Bitcoin now
- 8:49and they look at these signals and this is how they base their
- 8:52trades off of. This is why you'll see Bitcoin
- 8:55kind of react, you know, very closely to what's going on with
- 8:59the global or M2 money supply in the US And you'll also see it
- 9:03when when interest rates cut or interest rates are raised,
- 9:07you'll see Bitcoin react. Bitcoin is the most liquid
- 9:09market and now that we have big capital in the market, they are
- 9:13trading off of these signals. This is why you'll see Bitcoin
- 9:16kind of slump before everything else or pump before everything
- 9:19else. And I think this is what we're
- 9:21seeing happening right now. Now again, you're probably here
- 9:25just wondering what's this going to do to the Bitcoin price?
- 9:28Like that's cool, cool story. A guy, you know, in charge of
- 9:32the world's money supply. He's he's getting dovish here.
- 9:35He wants to cut interest rates. He's getting concerned.
- 9:38Well, the interesting correlation here is again,
- 9:41forgive me guys, I am pulling up a chart here.
- 9:43You know, forgive me. Don't throw your tomatoes yet,
- 9:45but I have so when the last. Time we cut.
- 9:49Rates which was November 2024 we cut it three times from November
- 9:55into December and you can see that with the first time we cut
- 9:59rates, which is it's not really here on my chart but it was
- 10:01November 16th. You see the price responded very
- 10:05favorably a 70% run. Yes it's not that much and then
- 10:09we double top. But if the same thing plays out
- 10:12and this is where it gets interesting if you don't
- 10:15understand the connection with interest rates and what it does
- 10:18to the economy how it stimulates growth.
- 10:21This this is basically the short of it.
- 10:23Cheaper money means more demand for risk.
- 10:26So when Powell cuts rates potentially in September, oops
- 10:30Treasury yields fall and then bonds look less attractive and
- 10:33so investors start moving to riskier assets chasing higher
- 10:37returns. If the interest rates are bad on
- 10:40Treasury yields, which are you know the safest return safest
- 10:43store value in the market, then they're not really getting any
- 10:47returns here and as traders, of course they want their returns
- 10:50and of course Bitcoin being outside of the traditional
- 10:53system often sees capital flowing into it when the money
- 10:56is cheap. We've seen this play out in the
- 10:58past every time they cut rates Bitcoin starts pumping and
- 11:02though we are kind of in a new regime of quantitative
- 11:05tightening. We're not in the quantitative
- 11:07easing. We're not in the free money easy
- 11:10money era anymore because there is a lot of things going on in
- 11:13the economy that they can't just have easy money because that
- 11:17would raise inflation and of course.
- 11:19Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, that narrative starts to
- 11:22strengthen and if people are starting to see the problem with
- 11:26their money, with their store values that hey this inflation
- 11:29is getting out of control, they're going to look for
- 11:31alternatives guys. And we all know Bitcoin has a 21
- 11:33million hard cap all roads lead to Bitcoin.
- 11:36The more they expand the money supplied, the more liquidity is
- 11:39in the system, the more they have to find a safe place to
- 11:42park this. And of course, at the same time,
- 11:45gold has historically been kind of the the one thing that people
- 11:49hedge, But now Bitcoin is entering the mind share of
- 11:52everyone. And then the second part of this
- 11:55is the interesting stuff. I'm pretty sure I don't.
- 11:58I don't think it was Mark Moss that coined this, but he's the
- 12:02one I've been kind of listening to recently and he's been
- 12:05coining it the Mar A Lago Accords.
- 12:07This is where. The stable coins and the dollar
- 12:11milkshake theory or the Bitcoin dollar theory all comes into
- 12:14play because Trump has been very, very obviously projecting
- 12:21where this is going. Or publicly he's saying, hey, we
- 12:25want a strong dollar. We need U.S. dollar dominance.
- 12:28This is how we're going to make America great.
- 12:30And then privately in a lot of the legislation they've been
- 12:33pushing through has been based on a few different things.
- 12:36One, they want a weaker dollar because weaker dollar, as I
- 12:39said, is easier for us to import.
- 12:42And of course, it brings exports back into America.
- 12:45And there's this push for, you know, production to come back
- 12:48onshore in the US So they want a weaker dollar.
- 12:51And of course as the dollar weakens, this boost the Bitcoin
- 12:57just just narrative in general weaker dollar people need to
- 13:00find something to store their value in.
- 13:02So rate cuts will weaken the dollar.
- 13:04And when Dixie falls or the dollar index falls, Bitcoin
- 13:08usually rises. And so international demand will
- 13:11increase for Bitcoin because it becomes cheaper in local
- 13:15currencies, AKA their dollars are dying against Bitcoin.
- 13:19And then of course, as more liquidity comes into the system,
- 13:21guys, it's all going to flood into Bitcoin.
- 13:24All roads lead to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the hardest asset,
- 13:27the most liquid asset if these currencies around the world.
- 13:30And remember, they're all connected to the dollar, whether
- 13:33directly or indirectly, everything is connected to the
- 13:36dollar. For better or worse, this is how
- 13:38the world works. All global economies, all
- 13:41Western economies, I guess is probably better put, are all
- 13:45essentially pegged to the dollar.
- 13:47Remember the Bretton Woods agreement where all the
- 13:49countries came together and they agreed to peg their local
- 13:52currency on the dollar? And so if the dollar weakens,
- 13:56then that's just a domino effect where all the other currencies
- 14:00get even weaker. And then they start playing hot
- 14:03potato here or musical chairs and they all eventually start
- 14:06going into the dollar. Now the interesting part about
- 14:09this, again, interest rates cut in treasuries, which is what
- 14:14most people use to store their value.
- 14:16So when Powell cuts rates, it's usually bullies for Bitcoin in
- 14:19the medium to long term liquidity, you know, goes up
- 14:23dollar weakens Bitcoin narrative as an inflation head starts to
- 14:26increase short term, it probably spikes volatility and
- 14:30potentially inflation as well. So these these things are going
- 14:34all happening all at once. Now, remember what I said in the
- 14:37beginning about what interest rates essentially mean?
- 14:40It means that the returns, again, you can think of interest
- 14:44rates as literally the interest that people have in parking
- 14:48their capital into treasuries. Now, the interesting part about
- 14:52this and the interesting part about the MAR a Lago Accords is
- 14:55the idea of stablecoins being injected into the system.
- 14:59They want to essentially, you know, export dollar dominance
- 15:03around the world using stablecoins.
- 15:05They're they're able to get stablecoins in jurisdictions
- 15:07that otherwise they weren't able to do with the dollar.
- 15:12Now, again, if interest rates, if the bond yields are not
- 15:15attractive for investors, then who's going to buy these
- 15:18Treasuries? This is where stable.
- 15:21Coins come into the mix and I think Nico, we're going to talk
- 15:24about Preston pitch for stable coins later in the show.
- 15:26So good, good little pin to put on that.
- 15:28But essentially stable coins are the biggest buyers, one of the
- 15:31biggest buyers in the world right now of Treasury.
- 15:33So all of this is working in, in, in symbiotic relationship
- 15:37here. They're going to cut interest
- 15:39rates or potentially they're cutting interest rates.
- 15:42The free money or loose money, easy money's coming back into
- 15:45the system or at least into our psyche.
- 15:47More liquidity into the system, more liquidity means inflation's
- 15:51going to rise. They're going to have to park
- 15:53their money somewhere. And of course, that is where
- 15:56Bitcoin comes into the play. Now, I've been ranting
- 15:59apparently for 15 minutes here. I do have some other.
- 16:02Other charts here. That kind of explain where where
- 16:05we are right now and what happened last night.
- 16:07But I'm going to break it up. Or pass it over to Nico.
- 16:10Nico, did I break down what's going on with interest rates
- 16:14enough for you to understand how this is going to affect Bitcoin?
- 16:18Yes and no. Lynn Alden in the House and I
- 16:21think her meme sums it up perfectly.
- 16:25In case you miss Powell's speech today, that's OK.
- 16:28He basically said nothing stops this train, OK.
- 16:32And in all seriousness, let's let's break down a couple
- 16:38things. This is the concession.
- 16:41The Trump administration has put tremendous amount of pressure on
- 16:46the Federal Reserve. We have multiple congressmen and
- 16:49women calling for criminal charges against the Federal
- 16:54Reserve. You have Senator Cynthia Lummis
- 16:57openly calling for the resignation of Jerome Powell for
- 17:01the Fed not acting as an independent entity.
- 17:05All of of that, I believe, was to pressure Powell to eventually
- 17:10lower interest rates so that Trump could push forward his
- 17:15agenda. That's what it was all about.
- 17:18That's this politics that has been playing out and it seems
- 17:21like Powell has finally conceded and markets are reflecting that.
- 17:27I think what they wanted to do is that they wanted to run down
- 17:31the clock until the midterms. But what happens if with Trump
- 17:37and with the redistricting? Redistricting.
- 17:39Going on, which we're not going to talk about on this show, but.
- 17:42With the redistricting going on and with a booming economy that
- 17:47positions the Republican Party and Trump in a very, very good
- 17:53light going into the midterms, right?
- 17:56And I think that the Federal Reserve doesn't like the current
- 18:01Trump administration stance on the Fed, on Bitcoin, and most
- 18:06importantly on central bank digital currencies, which is the
- 18:11only clear future for central banks.
- 18:15So if you have an openly hostile administration basically saying,
- 18:20hey, you know what, we don't want CBDC's because, you know,
- 18:25we want Bitcoin. We want, you know, the free
- 18:27market money and your whole institution's future depends on
- 18:33the rollout of these CBDC's. And you had this institutional
- 18:38Moat, this protection of this so-called neutrality.
- 18:42Wouldn't you use that if you're job dependent on it?
- 18:45Of course you would. And I think that's what we've
- 18:48seen the last six to six to eight months.
- 18:51I think we've seen this political maneuvering, this
- 18:53warfare happening behind the scenes, this tug of war between
- 18:57the executive branch and the Federal Reserve, and then there
- 19:01you go. There you have it, two days
- 19:04after a Bitcoin blockchain summit in the state of Wyoming,
- 19:10two days after you had the Federal Bank summit of the
- 19:14Federal Bank summits in Wyoming in the same state.
- 19:17Do you think it's a coincidence that those two symposiums are
- 19:21right next to each other and they use very similar names and
- 19:25the same policy makers are going to 1 and then the other?
- 19:28Do you think it's a coincidence that Trump has a speech planned
- 19:32two or three hours after Powell's speech?
- 19:35No, that's not a coincidence. They're sending you a sign.
- 19:38Like I said yesterday, this is digital 1776, baby.
- 19:43This is what is happening. And of course, this is extremely
- 19:47bullish for all assets. Every time the Federal Reserve
- 19:51prints money, it inflates the prices of assets, specifically
- 19:57hard assets. And the hardest assets of them
- 20:01all, the soundest asset of them all is of course Bitcoin, which
- 20:05is why you saw this crazy pump from 112,000.
- 20:10Dollars, It seemed like the bull market was over.
- 20:12It seems like we were packing it up.
- 20:14Oh, man, we'll be back in four years.
- 20:16And then bang right on that news.
- 20:19We pumped from 112,000 all the way to 117,000.
- 20:23We're consolidating a little bit here at 116,334.
- 20:28But the point remains, you know, this was a tug of war.
- 20:31This was political warfare at the highest levels over the last
- 20:34eight months. And I think what you saw from
- 20:37Powell today was a concession. That's the first thing I'll say.
- 20:40The second thing that I'll say is the 3% number.
- 20:43That's really interesting to me. Why is it interesting?
- 20:46Because that 2% number, where did it come from?
- 20:50Why does money need to lose 2% of its purchasing power in order
- 20:55for it to function? That's an invention of the
- 20:58central banks themselves. Bitcoin proves that money can
- 21:03function without inflation. Not only can it does it prove
- 21:06that money can function without inflation, it proves that money
- 21:10can function in a deflationary manner, meaning money actually
- 21:15could increase in purchasing power and over time and money
- 21:19still functions and it proves that it's better money in the
- 21:231st place. So they're pulling these numbers
- 21:26out of nowhere, right? And I love the Jeff Booth quote.
- 21:292% is just enough so that people don't realize they're being
- 21:33stolen from, but they're realizing, dude, there's no
- 21:37effing way we're going to be able to get back to that 2%
- 21:40number, which a lot of people were predicting.
- 21:43So now they're starting to normalize that 3% inflation
- 21:48rate. So yeah, crazy, crazy, You know,
- 21:53meeting that was had that symposium or or press conference
- 21:57that Powell had today. I think it's a big win.
- 22:00And let's see if he does lower rates because he's indicating
- 22:04that he's going to lower rates. But let's see if he does.
- 22:07And again, I think that this, a lot of this has to do with the
- 22:11tremendous amount of pressure that was put on them by the
- 22:15Trump. Administration Opti Jerome
- 22:18Powell, if you can hear me, please cut rates.
- 22:20We need easy money. But on the flip side, really,
- 22:25if, if he does do that and we do see high inflation, it's again,
- 22:30it's even more important for everyone out there to explain
- 22:33this to your friends and your family because the only way out
- 22:36of this is of course, Bitcoin. Now, Nico, you did say something
- 22:40that kind of connected this to the other story we were
- 22:44covering. I think it was yesterday.
- 22:45No, maybe it's 2 days ago. If they are going to normalize
- 22:50the inflation rates, then as the meme goes, you know, Bitcoin is
- 22:54for enemies. So even the people in the Fed,
- 22:57they're going to need to find an alternative.
- 22:59If they can't make any returns, if there is no store of value,
- 23:03then what are they saving in? If they know what is going on in
- 23:06the plumbing of this, they'd be dumb to save in the dollar.
- 23:10And this is where this story, it was 2 days ago, this story kind
- 23:14of starts to make make another appearance here.
- 23:17Remember this headline Fed Bowman suggests allowing central
- 23:21bank staff to own small amounts of crypto products.
- 23:24It's almost like they are projecting and telegraphing what
- 23:27they want to do. It's like, hey, you know, we're
- 23:30probably going to cut rates. We're probably going to raise
- 23:33our inflation targets. No one wants to hold Treasuries.
- 23:36You can't save in the dollar. Yeah, maybe we should allow
- 23:39people to hold Bitcoin even if they're a part of the Fed.
- 23:42If, you know, if they don't have any experience with this, maybe
- 23:45they need to hold something. They need to hold this Bitcoin
- 23:48thing so that they can regulate better.
- 23:50Now my tinfoil hats back on. It's like, no, they know that
- 23:53they're going to freaking nuke the dollar.
- 23:55And so now they're like, yeah, we're going to actually allow
- 23:57our, you know, our partners to hold Bitcoin.
- 24:01So that's my tinfoil hat theory for today.
- 24:04But anyways, I do want to kind of look at just kind of the not
- 24:08the historical, but the actual stats here.
- 24:10So I'm over here on coin glass. I've really been liking these
- 24:12liquidation maps. So this move here today, where
- 24:16were we when we started today? Nico, could you pull up those
- 24:18numbers? But it pumped to almost like
- 24:20117. I know we're like 116 it.
- 24:22Was like, it was like at 1:17, yeah.
- 24:24OK. And so this was just a move
- 24:26from, you know, $58 million being liquidated in shorts.
- 24:31And then over here, this is where it starts to get
- 24:33interesting for everyone out there.
- 24:34I know we don't trade here, but there is some signals in the
- 24:38market that kind of show us where the next kind of important
- 24:41numbers are, what the next important Bitcoin prices are
- 24:44that these traders are looking. First one is the Bitcoin
- 24:47exchange liquidation map. You can see, remember last week
- 24:50I believe there was $6 billion in shorts.
- 24:52Right now it's barely at a billion dollars in shorts and
- 24:57the big wall is at 117. So if we get past what you know
- 25:02about 119 ish and we start running into 120 then game on
- 25:08and now here is where it gets really fun.
- 25:11You know Gorbachev will break down this wall.
- 25:14Where are the walls here? You can see that the big wall
- 25:17here is at roughly 121.5. So there's 1.53 K Bitcoin
- 25:23currently on the exchanges at 121.5.
- 25:26So that's. Probably the number to look at.
- 25:28If we break 125, then the next huge wall is 155.
- 25:34I don't know, that's starting to get me feeling a little more
- 25:37bullish than usual here. I know I was feeling a little
- 25:39bearish on the show on Monday. I I kind of tapered and hedged
- 25:44myself and said it. Feels like a bear trap.
- 25:47I think the bear trap is confirmed now, Nico, it feels
- 25:50like the bear trap is confirmed. So guys, if we break.
- 25:53Above 117 and start entering into 121 bear trap.
- 25:57You just jinxed the F. Ah dude, bear trap confirmed.
- 26:01Could you could you pull up the wait, wait?
- 26:02The the bear trap chart so. That hold on, I'm renaming this.
- 26:06I'm I'm renaming this. It's no longer the bear chart.
- 26:10It is the Nico trap. So if we can trap Nico.
- 26:14Here bullish, super bullish, all right.
- 26:18Hold on, My my internet's acting up a little bit over here.
- 26:21It's not. It's not working.
- 26:23But yeah, I'm pulling it up. I'm pulling it up for you guys.
- 26:26Here we go. Here we go.
- 26:27One second. Let me get this.
- 26:29Let me get this going. Here we are.
- 26:33This one's the wall. Street psychology chart I'll
- 26:36pull up a bear trap chart so you guys can see it a little better
- 26:40we're. At the anger phase.
- 26:43The anger. Down here, No, I, I, I think
- 26:47we're still in disbelief, bro. I don't think we're even in
- 26:50hope. Yet I think we're in disbelief.
- 26:51Yeah, yeah. No.
- 26:53Here we go this. Is this is the good one?
- 26:55This is the good one. Oh yeah, that there it is.
- 26:59There it is. I'll zoom in.
- 27:00I'll zoom in. Interesting.
- 27:03Yeah, dude, no, but it makes perfect.
- 27:05It is. It is working, but it makes
- 27:07perfect sense bro, you know? I don't know, dude.
- 27:12To the take off little or sell off bear trap.
- 27:16We haven't had any media attention like they're like
- 27:19retail does not give a flying F about Bitcoin right now.
- 27:24And that's a fact, right? So wait, wait, wait, rock.
- 27:31Our boys over rocked them so we just pumped the amount of
- 27:34inflation we are going to get. Pretty much.
- 27:38Pretty much another kind of. Another kind of like, maybe like
- 27:42depressing stat Jose Rivera in the chat the last flood of the
- 27:46week. But another kind of depressing
- 27:49stat is that Bitcoin has, hasn't, has barely made all time
- 27:57highs against gold, right? And it's been like 4 years.
- 28:01This was actually one of the arguments that Peter Schiff used
- 28:04when I interviewed him in Las Vegas.
- 28:07That was one of the one of the things that he said.
- 28:09He's like, look like, you know, Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin
- 28:14hasn't made all time highs against gold and it and it has
- 28:17made all time highs against gold, but it hasn't made
- 28:19significant all time highs against gold.
- 28:21So I agree with you. I agree with Opti 100%.
- 28:24I think we're, can you pull that up, Opti?
- 28:26Yeah, I want to. I want to talk.
- 28:28About I want to talk about. 'Cause like we are definitely in
- 28:31the bear trap. You're.
- 28:33Definitely. Oh oh.
- 28:34You want the bear trap one? OK, yeah, we're.
- 28:36Definitely in the bear trap phase, like 100% it it just it
- 28:42just it just doesn't make sense to be in another another part of
- 28:48it in my opinion. So yeah, like we haven't had
- 28:53median attention, we haven't had enthusiasm, we haven't had
- 28:57greed. Like, you know, we've had the
- 28:59take off for sure. We've had a first sell off, I
- 29:02would say was the beginning of the year, right?
- 29:06Tao in the chat, shout out Tao in the beginning of the year
- 29:09when we went from 109 to 76 K. Now we've just kind of been
- 29:14chopped solid dating we, I, I haven't felt, I felt a little
- 29:18bit of euphoria, a little little bit here and there, but we
- 29:21really haven't had that, that pump yet, right.
- 29:24So I agree with you, Opti. This might have been the bear
- 29:26trap. This might have been the bear
- 29:27trap. Bear trap confirmed.
- 29:29Actually, no. Now that the bear is agreeing it
- 29:32to bear trap, this is we're in despair.
- 29:37Yeah, maybe, maybe. Anyways, guys, it's going to be
- 29:40an incredible show. We have tons to talk about
- 29:42today. We have a clip of from Baltic
- 29:44Honey Badger had the pleasure of being able to moderate a panel
- 29:47there, Preston Pish talking about stable coin issuers and
- 29:52how they're going to be using that to buy bonds and then opt
- 29:55he's going to connect the dots there.
- 29:56He was covering that. During the intro segment and
- 30:00then we had some very interesting news. the US House
- 30:03adds a a central bank digital currency ban to its 2026 defense
- 30:08policy bill, blocking the Federal Reserve from developing,
- 30:12testing or issuing any CBDC. And then the big news for today,
- 30:16and we're going to be talking about the significance of it.
- 30:19Bitwise just confirmed it preceded the first ever in kind
- 30:24Bitcoin ETF redemption. Wall Street settling in Bitcoin.
- 30:29That's right ladies and gentlemen, today is a historic
- 30:33day and a very, very good day for Bitcoin.
- 30:37Anyways, before we jump into the show, ladies and gentlemen, I do
- 30:41want to give a very special shot to our lead sponsor Bitcoin.
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- 31:36bitcoinwell.com/OTC today. All right, everybody, no more
- 31:41delay. Let's jump straight into the
- 31:44numbers segment. We have tons to talk about.
- 31:46We will be right back. I want to give a shout out to
- 31:55our partner stamp seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
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- 33:08All right everybody, we are back at the time of recording.
- 33:11Ladies and gentlemen, we are at $116,480.
- 33:14By the way, scan the QR code on your screen.
- 33:17Go to stampseed.com. Don't write down your seed words
- 33:20on paper. Stamp them into titanium.
- 33:23You get 15% off if you use promo code.
- 33:26Simply at the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $116,500.
- 33:32Block height 911,207 sats per dollar 850 88 sats per dollar
- 33:39Market cap 2.32.32 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap
- 33:459.74%. Decline from all time high
- 33:49-6.4%. Realize monetary inflation .84%.
- 33:55In the grand scheme of things, we are just getting the party
- 33:59started. Anyways, ladies and gentlemen, a
- 34:01Baltic Honey badger for this year.
- 34:04Again, I had the pleasure of being being invited to go.
- 34:07It was a fantastic conference in in Latvia, one of the longest
- 34:11running a Bitcoin conferences I believe.
- 34:14Incredible venue and appreciate the invite Max and Anna.
- 34:19But anyways, Press and Pish had some really interesting thoughts
- 34:24about stablecoin issuers and US bonds and how that will
- 34:28eventually be swept into Bitcoin.
- 34:30And since Opti out of nowhere became this macro expert, I want
- 34:35to get his thoughts on that. So I'm going to play the clip
- 34:38and then me and Opti will talk about it.
- 34:41They were tripping over themselves to pass the Genius
- 34:43Act and you have to ask yourself why?
- 34:46Why were these politicians tripping over themselves to get
- 34:49this thing passed? And the answer is really simple.
- 34:52They needed a buyer for all their debt.
- 34:56And the buyer is, is the stablecoin issuers.
- 35:00And it's, it's really kind of interesting to see how that all
- 35:04really transpired and really kind of came to a head is, you
- 35:08know, the government had to start issuing shorter and
- 35:11shorter duration paper because there was no buyers for anything
- 35:14that was long duration because there was so much inflation
- 35:16risk. So they, they're down there like
- 35:19issuing like one month money and it's like, well, who's going to
- 35:23buy all this one month money? Well, you know what the
- 35:25stablecoin issuers literally like, they love that because
- 35:31they can back everything, they can gobble up all this new
- 35:34issuance. They don't have the inflation
- 35:36risk that if they were buying 30 year paper, they don't want that
- 35:40inflation risk because they don't know if it's going to be
- 35:42fully backed, right or they'd have to keep rolling it to, to
- 35:45try to like manage that. But if it's really short
- 35:48duration, it's actually perfect for them.
- 35:51And then the really smart ones, what are they going to do with
- 35:53all the coupons that they're receiving?
- 35:56They're just going to sweep it into Bitcoin.
- 35:58And then it's really backed because that thing's going up at
- 36:0040 to 50% annualized. It's like extra over
- 36:04collateralized. What I find so interesting with
- 36:08all of this is you literally have BlackRock and all these
- 36:11other banks that are playing a fractional reserve game.
- 36:15They don't even have what they're issuing in the vault,
- 36:20but yet you have a company that's fully collateralized with
- 36:24extra Bitcoin in the vault and they're making more profit than
- 36:28the ones that are playing the Ponzi game.
- 36:31And they're getting the issue like literally from thin air and
- 36:34they're making more money than them.
- 36:36If that doesn't show you like the natural market forces that
- 36:41nature's trying to heal itself, I don't know what does because
- 36:45it's just it's miraculous to me that you can have something
- 36:48that's over collateralized just whipping the pants off of the
- 36:51ones that are literally cheating as if it's a total Ponzi scheme.
- 36:56All right, Opti, what did he just say?
- 36:58Dude, Preston, Preston nailed it.
- 37:00That's exactly what's going on. Look.
- 37:02It's no, it's no surprise that the first thing that the Trump
- 37:08administration did in regards to being, quote, the Bitcoin
- 37:11superpower of the world is pushed through stablecoin
- 37:13legislation. And I think Preston kind of he,
- 37:16he, I think he laid it out pretty simply.
- 37:19It's, it's a very simple idea, guys, as Lynn Alden has been
- 37:22saying for a long time, as Larry Lepard's been saying for a long
- 37:26time, Oh, you know, they have two different memes that are
- 37:28basically saying the same thing. Lynn Alden always says there's
- 37:31nothing that can stop this train.
- 37:33Larry Lepard, or maybe I'm attributing it to Larry and it
- 37:36might be Max Keiser, but you can't taper A Ponzi.
- 37:39This is what's going on. The whole goal right now from
- 37:42the Trump administration or Scott Besson and Donald Trump
- 37:46and even all of Congress pushing through the genius Act is 1
- 37:50mandate. And we've heard Bo Hines say
- 37:52this for for months now. They want to maintain quote,
- 37:56U.S. dollar dominance. Now, what is going on right now
- 37:59is the world is waking up to the fact that the US has abused that
- 38:04quote, UN quote, world reserve currency status and we've
- 38:07exported our debt to our rather our inflation, our debt to
- 38:10everyone around the world. And as we are currently seeing
- 38:14with this push from the Trump administration towards Jerome
- 38:18Powell is that nobody wants to buy our debt anymore.
- 38:22The trust in the US, in our control over the money and our
- 38:26stewardship of the money, it's losing that that luster now.
- 38:31They do not want to touch our debt right now.
- 38:34This is why Jerome Powell has been trying to keep interest
- 38:37rates high is because again, you got to think of interest rates
- 38:41as the interest for people to buy that thing so that they can
- 38:44get returns. And what's happening is even
- 38:47though the rates are high, no one wants to buy this stuff
- 38:50because they they're like, I don't want to own government IOU
- 38:54debt right now. This is why we've seen the push
- 38:57from the BRICS nations to not only start their own stable
- 38:59coins, but potentially talk about leaving the dollar.
- 39:03Now, the interesting part about the stablecoins is exactly what
- 39:06Preston said. One of the biggest buyers of
- 39:09Treasuries right now is stablecoins.
- 39:11Hence they think they can taper the Ponzi.
- 39:13They think they can stop the Fiat debt spiral by issuing a
- 39:20incredible amounts of stable coin embracement.
- 39:23Because if stable coins do proliferate around the world,
- 39:26two things happen. 1, you can get dollars into areas that you
- 39:30weren't able to get before. Again, exporting our debt to
- 39:33areas that weren't able to be touched before.
- 39:37And then two, you get someone to buy your treasury.
- 39:40So you have two things. You get more people into the
- 39:42system, which we all know how GDP works.
- 39:45It's not just about productivity.
- 39:46It's just having more people, you know, spending money in the
- 39:49system that is that that's, you know, checked off.
- 39:54If more people are able to use the dollar through stable coins.
- 39:57Now, the second thing is they need a buyer of stable coins.
- 39:59If no one wants to buy this, how?
- 40:01Are they going to keep the Ponzi going?
- 40:02They need to do more people into buying this debt.
- 40:05And that's where stablecoins come in, is the stablecoins will
- 40:09buy the Treasury because that's what essentially, you know,
- 40:12they're back 1:00 to 1:00. Well, you know, cash equivalents
- 40:15like treasuries. Now, the interesting part of
- 40:18this is what Preston Pisch said at the end.
- 40:20The smart stablecoin issuers, they're not going to be holding
- 40:23dollars here. They're going to be buying
- 40:25Bitcoin. And this is where their Ponzi
- 40:27unravels. Here because yes.
- 40:30Like Tether or stablecoins, any stablecoin issuer, they are
- 40:34using treasuries to make a profit off of this, but they're
- 40:38not rolling their profits into dollars or gold or more
- 40:42treasuries. What are they rolling their
- 40:44profits into? It is Bitcoin.
- 40:46This is why that one speech of safety and, and I believe it was
- 40:50in Las Vegas when he was talking about stablecoins was very
- 40:54interesting because he laid it out exactly as we've all been
- 40:58saying and shouts out to Mark Goodwin, he's been on this years
- 41:01now and everyone was making fun of him and it's happening
- 41:03exactly as he said. They are going to try to use
- 41:07stable coins to continue U.S. dollar, dollar dominance.
- 41:11And it could, it could, it's going to potentially extend the
- 41:14runway for the dollar here. So it's not like the dollar is
- 41:17going to go away now if they're embracing stable coins.
- 41:20But the interesting part about this is, you know, these private
- 41:23stable coins, for lack of better terms, and it might sound harsh,
- 41:26are basically counterfeiting and selling U.S. dollars.
- 41:29And then they park the proceeds into more treasuries and then
- 41:32they invest their income into Bitcoin and they think they can
- 41:36stop this dollar Ponzi by stable coins.
- 41:39And it's not going to happen. There's no way to stop this
- 41:42guys. The the debt is at such a high
- 41:45level that no amount of stable coins are going to be able to
- 41:47stop this. And even though they're trying
- 41:50like again, they will always have different tools to try to
- 41:53extend the dollar dominance here.
- 41:55And right now they think that they're, you know, golden ticket
- 41:58is stable coins, but it's it's not they can't, they can't taper
- 42:01the Ponzi. So it's very simple.
- 42:04They need someone to buy treasuries.
- 42:06They're looking to stable coins to be that buyer of last resort.
- 42:10They're going to expand dollar dominance or put dollars in
- 42:12areas that it could never be touched before.
- 42:15And then their only flaw in this, and this is where it's,
- 42:18you know, Bitcoin is a Trojan horse, is that the stablecoin
- 42:21issuers like Tether are Bitcoin Maxis and they're putting all of
- 42:24their profits in Bitcoin. Guys, this is this is the quote
- 42:28UN quote mar a Lago accords. This is what's happening.
- 42:31They're trying to use stablecoins to protect the
- 42:33dollar. And it's really only only going
- 42:36to speed up their demise here. So like, look, I'm not a fan of
- 42:40all of this, but now when you see the game a little more
- 42:42clearly, you start to understand why they're pushing for
- 42:45stablecoins so much is because they think stablecoins will save
- 42:48them. It's not going to save them.
- 42:50It it this is not what they think it is in the end game,
- 42:54though. This will be good for Bitcoin.
- 42:56I mean, Nico, you've been on this for a minute where look for
- 42:59better or worse, most people that touch, you know, digital
- 43:03assets first, they do kind of step into stable coins because
- 43:07it is, is basically, you know. It's it's a.
- 43:09Familiar medium of what they're used to.
- 43:11It's basically like, you know, one, one step away from a Fiat
- 43:15currency and then one step away from Bitcoin.
- 43:17And so once more more people start to get used to using
- 43:20digital currencies, quote UN quote, eventually they will
- 43:23realize, hey, I'm not storing my value very well.
- 43:27In this yes. Maybe Bitcoin or sorry,
- 43:29stablecoins are better if I'm not in the US, you know, maybe
- 43:33the dollar is better than my local currency.
- 43:36But if you're like us already in the dollar, you're like, why?
- 43:40Why am I going to peg it into something that's losing value?
- 43:42It just it makes no sense to anyone that really understands
- 43:46the game but the. Administration is hoping Scott
- 43:50Besson's been saying this for a while they're hoping that the
- 43:53stablecoin kind of push well well increase their runway here.
- 43:58They they think they're going to be able to maintain U.S. dollar
- 44:01dominance for, you know, the next hundred 52150 years with
- 44:04stablecoins. They they're going to increase
- 44:06their runway, but you know, Bitcoin is going to eventually
- 44:09eat their lunch because tether might become, you know, richer
- 44:15than the US government here and their Bitcoin Maxis.
- 44:18This is the game guys. This is the Mar a Lago accords.
- 44:20They're trying to export debt to areas that they couldn't before.
- 44:23They're going to use stable coins to do that.
- 44:25Now, the part that's really going to mess them up is where
- 44:29do the profits go? Where do you park your profits?
- 44:31You don't you don't park your profits in dollars.
- 44:33You don't park it in treasuries. Again, no one no one's trying to
- 44:36buy your debt. I don't know if you guys saw but
- 44:38the the Fed just. Air horns, please.
- 44:41Air horns, please. The the.
- 44:42Fed Oh, there we go, our boy. Ben partner of simply Bitcoin
- 44:48appreciate the Super chat bro have a few drinks on me guys
- 44:52love you guys BTC to the moon air horns, Opti air horns.
- 44:56Please Bitcoin Ben in the house guys go check out Bitcoin Ben
- 45:02dot IO. They're it's incredibly awesome.
- 45:05It's a it's a they have clubs all over the United States.
- 45:08They have resorts in El Salvador.
- 45:10They have the private KeyBank, the first Bitcoin bank you guys
- 45:15got to go check it out, so go to Bitcoin Ben dot IO opti, I mean
- 45:19to cut your. Your training.
- 45:21I forget. I forget where I well, you did.
- 45:23I forget where I was. No, but dude, I mean, listen
- 45:27like it's it's it's interesting because it's almost as if you
- 45:33know it. What Preston so astutely put is
- 45:37how much they came together on passing this genius act, right?
- 45:41Like all the other Bitcoin acts and all that stuff like that
- 45:45stuff. Did not you know?
- 45:47It it it. Like it's being talked about,
- 45:50the Bitcoin bills being talked about, right?
- 45:53But the genius act was like. Like it just fasted.
- 45:58And it's the only thing they can agree on, Mika.
- 46:00The only thing they can agree on is pushing the genius act
- 46:03through because they're like, yeah, we got to keep the dollar
- 46:05Ponzi going. And think about it.
- 46:09Think about the name of the. ACT.
- 46:10They're like, yo, this is genius, this is genius.
- 46:13Like this is genius. This is fantastic.
- 46:16And you know. It's, it's the reality is that,
- 46:18you know, Tether and I love those guys.
- 46:20They're bitcoiners, fundamentally.
- 46:23They're they, they are one of the largest treasury buyers in
- 46:27the world. No one.
- 46:28Else is buying treasuries right? So and not only and Nico and.
- 46:32Is buying treasuries and then not only that.
- 46:34They're. Literally exporting the dollar
- 46:37worldwide. I was going to say, not only are
- 46:41they one of the buy it, the largest U.S.
- 46:43Treasury buyer, but they're also one of the largest Bitcoin
- 46:47treasury companies out there. It's like.
- 46:50Yeah. Oh yeah. 21 and Jack Mahler's.
- 46:52Yeah. Yeah, like I, I.
- 46:53Don't think they I they really thought they made a genius move
- 46:56here. In reality I think this is just
- 47:00going to it. It does eventually increase
- 47:03their demise. It does kick the count down the
- 47:05road though. Yeah, no, it totally.
- 47:07Does time, it does buy them. It does buy them a lot of time,
- 47:10but I would say like Bitcoiners like, I would say like for
- 47:12Bitcoiners like, like this was inevitable.
- 47:15This was always going to happen. Bitcoin is the better money at
- 47:20the end of the day. A stable coin doesn't fix the
- 47:25inherent problems with Fiat money.
- 47:27The inherent problems with Fiat money are their two.
- 47:30Number one is their inflationary #2 they get censored.
- 47:36Right, so those are the 2. Problems.
- 47:38Bitcoin fixes those two problems.
- 47:40Bitcoin is better money. So naturally over time people
- 47:44will go towards better money, right as this message spreads,
- 47:48as Bitcoin adoption spreads. And I think, and I'm calling
- 47:52this, I'm not the only one to say this, Samson Mao has said
- 47:54this before too. I think stable coins are a
- 47:57Trojan horse. Because they get people exposure
- 48:00to digital wallets, right? You get instead of going to an.
- 48:05Opening a bank account, which it's archaic, it takes like an
- 48:07hour and a half. They ask you every question from
- 48:10Kingdom come. You download a wallet and all of
- 48:13a sudden you can use dollars, right?
- 48:15Like. It it it's very simple.
- 48:17That's why they've been so popular in the developing world
- 48:21in the global S. They've been so popular because
- 48:24people are just like you understand that the dollar has
- 48:27one of the best brands in the world.
- 48:30Like you hand $100 bill to anyone around the world that's
- 48:34not in the United States, like in in Africa and South America
- 48:37and and and there it's like holding gold in your hand.
- 48:40Like they look at it as gold, right.
- 48:43But eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin.
- 48:45Anyways, guys, it's going to be an incredible show.
- 48:48We still have tons to talk about historic day in Bitcoin's
- 48:51history. The 1st in kind in kind
- 48:55redemption happened. And we're going to be talking
- 48:59about that. We're going to be talking about
- 49:00the significance of that. And of course, it is Friday.
- 49:03So I'm sure Opti has a Friday special loaded up for you guys.
- 49:07We're going to kind of bearish, I'm not going to lie.
- 49:11We might not do the culture today we're.
- 49:13Going to be right back. We're going to be right back in.
- 49:16We're going to be right back. Hit the news and we'll talk
- 49:19about it. Let's check it out.
- 49:21I want to give a shout out to our partner Let In, the leader
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- 50:05off your first loan. I want to give a shout out to
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- 50:54Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
- 50:5915% off anything on the store. All right, everybody, we are
- 51:14back. So first things that I want to
- 51:16cover is this news. Shout out Bitcoin news as the US
- 51:22House adds a central bank digital currency ban to its 2026
- 51:26defense policy bill, blocking the Federal Reserve from
- 51:29developing, testing, or issuing any central bank digital
- 51:33currency. This is in stark contrast to
- 51:35what Europe is doing. Europe is going down the path of
- 51:40central bank digital currencies. the United States is not.
- 51:43But This is why the midterms are so important, guys.
- 51:48Vote for pro Bitcoin, anti CBDC candidates.
- 51:52And the way that it stands now is it seems like the Republican
- 51:56Party has embraced a pro Bitcoin, anti CBDC stance and
- 52:02the Democratic Party, I don't think it's monolithic.
- 52:04I do not believe so because there's a lot of Democrats that
- 52:08are pro Bitcoin, there's a lot of Democrats that are pro
- 52:11Bitcoin, and I'm sure that there's Democrats that are anti
- 52:14Bitcoin. But when it comes to their
- 52:15voting record, there was a bill that was multiple bills actually
- 52:20that were introduced in the House that would forbid the
- 52:23federal government from launching ACBDC.
- 52:26And both bills went along party lines.
- 52:29So most Republicans voted. For for against the the federal
- 52:36government being able to launch a CDC and, and basically every
- 52:40single Democrat voted for for the federal.
- 52:44Government being able to launch a CDC so once we get closer to
- 52:47the to the midterms again, we're not picking.
- 52:51The right or the left, or of the red party or the blue party?
- 52:54We're picking part Bitcoin over party.
- 52:57We should support candidates and politicians as we transition.
- 53:02Away from money being political, that support Bitcoin and that
- 53:06are anti CBDC. Fiat is evil.
- 53:10You don't want a future for your children.
- 53:13You don't want a Fiat, you don't want a Fiat future for your
- 53:16children. Do you want the continuation of
- 53:17endless wars? Do you want the continuation of
- 53:20their of their savings, of their work being debased?
- 53:23Like no, like now they're even trying to justify.
- 53:26It's no longer 2%. Now it's a 3% inflation rate.
- 53:29So three, let me translate that to you.
- 53:31The money in your bank, the official policy is it will steal
- 53:373% of its purchasing, it will steal 3% of its your purchasing
- 53:40power on a yearly basis. On top of which I'm not going to
- 53:44get into that. Income tax, property tax, sales
- 53:48tax, inheritance tax. Like so you get taxed when you
- 53:55earn income. When you spend that set income
- 53:59you get taxed again and sales tax when you buy a property.
- 54:04And you sell that property, right?
- 54:06You, you know, you get there. There is a like a, a, a specific
- 54:10clause or you don't, you know, there's not a tax consequence to
- 54:13it. But let's say you're, you're
- 54:15buying property and selling property to make a profit.
- 54:18You get taxed for that. Let's say you make money in the
- 54:22stock market or you make money in Bitcoin.
- 54:24You get taxed for that. So like, let's say you're very
- 54:28wealthy and you want to pass some of that wealth to your
- 54:31children. You get taxed for that.
- 54:33Let's say you want to give up your citizenship and you want to
- 54:37move to a more favorable tax jurisdiction.
- 54:40You get taxed for that, right? OK.
- 54:43All of those things have been agreed upon legally it whether
- 54:46we like it or not. It they, they're laws.
- 54:49They're laws. They've just been.
- 54:50Passed they're laws. I don't remember ever agreeing
- 54:56to paying the money tax. That has not been agreed upon.
- 54:59It has not been agreed upon. And they get away with it.
- 55:02And this is how they're able to spend more money than they
- 55:05collect in tax revenue. It is straight up theft.
- 55:08So you know what is the what is the protest against this?
- 55:12The protest against this is buying Bitcoin, earning Bitcoin,
- 55:16put in, putting it into self custody, opting out of the Fiat
- 55:20system and watch your life improve.
- 55:22Watch your life improve. Everything gets cheaper when you
- 55:25live on a Bitcoin standard. Your purchasing power increases
- 55:27over time rather than decreasing.
- 55:29Anyways, that's the first bit of news.
- 55:31The second big piece of news for today is beat Russo breaking
- 55:37Bitwise just confirmed it preceded the first ever in kind
- 55:41Bitcoin ETF redemption. Wall Street settling in BTC.
- 55:45It is happening. Here is the president of Bitwise
- 55:50with the official. Announcement Bitwise A.
- 55:53Process. And in kind.
- 55:55Creation order this week, to our knowledge one of the first in
- 55:59history. This is the newly allowed
- 56:01capability where an authorized participant exchanges the spot
- 56:06asset Bitcoin for ETF shares rather than paying with cash.
- 56:10I don't know why you would want to do that, but OK in kind of in
- 56:13kind creations and redemptions and Bitcoin ETFs unlock the
- 56:17potential for lower transaction cost, tighter spreads and
- 56:21cheaper all in fees. For ETF investors, as ever,
- 56:25excuse. Me, we're thrilled to continue
- 56:28doing our part to push the space forward, thrilled about this
- 56:32milestone. So I think it is a big
- 56:34milestone. So anyways, and the reason why
- 56:37it's huge is that normally ETFs create shares with cash.
- 56:42An authorized participant wires the dollars, the fund goes out
- 56:46and buys Bitcoin, and then issues ETF shares.
- 56:49With in kind creation the the AP, the authorized participant
- 56:55can hand over actual Bitcoin directly and get ETF shares
- 57:00back. Why does this matter?
- 57:01It cuts out extra steps, lowers transaction costs, tightens
- 57:06spreads, and means cheap all in fees for investors.
- 57:09It also makes Bitcoin ETFs work more like gold ETFs, which is a
- 57:14sign of maturity in the space. The bottom line is this.
- 57:18This is another step in integrating Bitcoin directly
- 57:21into traditional markets, making it cheaper, faster and more
- 57:25efficient for everyone. Now what I want to see though is
- 57:29in kind redemptions back. Like what if you want to sell an
- 57:32ETF and you want Bitcoin back? Or does it just work one way?
- 57:37Right, That's what I want to see.
- 57:38That's the next development. But anyways, historic day for
- 57:41Bitcoin Opti, what's your take? Yeah, obviously historic day.
- 57:47This is an obvious improvement from where we were.
- 57:52And like you said, it is going to be interesting how this plays
- 57:56out. So shouts out the bitwise.
- 57:58Now there was a good. Question in the.
- 58:00Chat and I don't think we've seen anything on in regards to
- 58:05this because there wasn't really much clarity on it, but is in
- 58:07kind creation taxed as selling Bitcoin, which is very
- 58:11interesting if it's a rules for thee but not for me type
- 58:14scenario. But again, I think the point
- 58:17here for kind of everyone here look, first of all, I wouldn't
- 58:21be buying ETFs. I'm not here for, you know,
- 58:24quote Bitcoin exposure. You want to hold the the thing
- 58:26itself. Like why are you?
- 58:28And I mean there, I know why, but I'm being hyperbolic here.
- 58:32Like why would you want to have a person hold this for you when
- 58:35you can hold it yourself? Now I know why people do this
- 58:37because it's hard to get some of your capital out of the
- 58:40traditional financial system into Bitcoin.
- 58:42But with that being said, with my caveat being said, this is a
- 58:47very good thing. If everyone follows and does
- 58:50this and that means all the, you know, quote, UN quote Bitcoin
- 58:53that they own, they got to actually buy that Bitcoin.
- 58:56So if more people come in and and want Bitcoin ETFs over the
- 59:00just the Bitcoin thing itself, maybe this is the volume coming
- 59:04up on the Bitcoin price chart, because I don't know if you guys
- 59:07have been looking, but volume has been dead like for years
- 59:10here like no one's buying Bitcoin right now.
- 59:13And there has been a lot of speculation of is it because
- 59:17people are buying Bitcoin ETFs, like is it the big paper Bitcoin
- 59:22summer going on right now? Because the volume is absolutely
- 59:26has absolutely disappeared here. And like all remember the
- 59:30articles that we covered, I believe it was last year, I
- 59:32forget what time last year, but it was headlined something like
- 59:37all the Bitcoin tourists have gone home guys, there is no
- 59:41more. There's no tourists here.
- 59:42The only people that are in the market right now are bitcoiners
- 59:46that have been here for a while. We're the only ones buying this
- 59:49stuff right now. Besides the corporate treasuries
- 59:52that are making these moves to acquire Bitcoin.
- 59:55No one here it it's, it's a freaking desert.
- 59:57Like there's no liquidity right now or sorry, there's no volume
- 1:00:00right now because we haven't we haven't kind of caught on to
- 1:00:04that mania phase yet. But if the price does start
- 1:00:07running again. I think the mania is going to
- 1:00:10come back. And of course that means, hey,
- 1:00:12maybe we go higher than two 100K.
- 1:00:13But yes, this is a huge historical milestone here for,
- 1:00:18you know, well, it, it depends. I'm sure a lot of Bitcoiners are
- 1:00:21like whatever, dude, who cares about ETFs, But this is a
- 1:00:24historical milestone in regards to the financialization of
- 1:00:28Bitcoin. And really it's, it's a stamp
- 1:00:31and hopefully all the others follow suit on this.
- 1:00:35And then this is this is going to be huge for Bitcoin.
- 1:00:37I mean. They, you know, they, they don't
- 1:00:40even have any kind of redemptions for gold, right?
- 1:00:42So like this is great. It looks like with the same
- 1:00:47thing that's going on with the genius act of them pushing
- 1:00:49stable coins through, we're seeing this happen with Bitcoin,
- 1:00:53which really kind of leads credits to the idea of Bitcoin
- 1:00:57as a superior technologies being adopted at a rate that's faster
- 1:01:01than any other technology we've ever seen in the world.
- 1:01:03And you know what that means? Boys and girls number go up.
- 1:01:08We PAMP. Right.
- 1:01:10Can you play the rocket ship? Yes.
- 1:01:16Rocket ship get on board yo-yo the but rock them Roxim am I?
- 1:01:22Why am I reading this wrong? In kind revenue, who cares?
- 1:01:26I need in kind tax free that's. Bars.
- 1:01:29Ladies and gentlemen, we're making bars babysit.
- 1:01:33I do want to give a shout out to live stream.
- 1:01:34We just broke 3000 live viewers across YouTube and accent of
- 1:01:37course Rumble is popping off we're.
- 1:01:39About to we're pre recorded. 10,010 thousand subscribers on
- 1:01:44Rumble Baby. So actually, actually.
- 1:01:46Everyone that watches us on YouTube, make sure you're also
- 1:01:51subscribed on Rumble, even if you're just watching on YouTube.
- 1:01:55But get those numbers. Up we, we.
- 1:01:56Love all platforms we love YouTube, we love rubble, we love
- 1:01:59X but subscribe, help support the show help us spread the
- 1:02:04Bitcoin gospel the The message of satoshi help us spread the
- 1:02:08message that money can exist without inflation that you have
- 1:02:12the right as a human being to adopt A money that.
- 1:02:17Allows you to keep your dignity, allows you to hope and save for
- 1:02:20the future, baby. All right, everybody, we're
- 1:02:22going to hit the culture segment and we're going to be giving
- 1:02:24away some free Satoshi's. We're going to be giving away
- 1:02:27Bitcoin by our friends over Bitcoin.
- 1:02:30Well, so you guys are going to want to stay tuned for the
- 1:02:32culture segment. We'll, we'll be right back in
- 1:02:35just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
- 1:02:38our partner Hive Digital Technology.
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- 1:04:30IO. Join today where Bitcoin meets
- 1:04:33freedom. Everybody, guys.
- 1:04:41We are back. I just want to, I want to do a
- 1:04:43quick update on the poll. We asked you guys 40 minutes
- 1:04:46ago. Almost 500 of you guys voted.
- 1:04:49I asked will Bitcoin hit $200,000 by the end of the year?
- 1:04:5365% of you guys said yes, 35% of you guys said no.
- 1:04:58I'm ending the poll right there and then.
- 1:05:01Guys, stay tuned to the end of the show because we will be
- 1:05:03giving away some precious precious Satoshi's AKA Bitcoin
- 1:05:07Opti. I'm going to do a reverse Pareto
- 1:05:10principle on this and the 20% that said no are being banned as
- 1:05:14we speak. No, I'm that's a joke.
- 1:05:17Yeah, that was troll. That was a bad joke.
- 1:05:18That was a Nico dad joke. Anyways, I saw Marty post this
- 1:05:23and there's some. I'm taking over for Opti cuz you
- 1:05:27know he's making fun of my jokes and it's not cool so.
- 1:05:34You know, you could take over, but you ain't got the skills I
- 1:05:37do, so you can't cover the segment, you know, So it's all
- 1:05:41good. All right.
- 1:05:42Anyways, I saw Marty post this this morning while I was looking
- 1:05:46for the show and then it reminded me of something I've
- 1:05:49been trying to cover all week. Some great posts by Balaji and
- 1:05:53it really makes you wonder as I said earlier.
- 1:05:55It is it it should it it it. It is kind of bearish by nature,
- 1:05:59but it is just a very interesting, kind of like
- 1:06:04historical perspective of where we are right now.
- 1:06:07Anyways, Marty tweeted this this morning while everyone and their
- 1:06:10mothers focus on Jackson Hole in anticipation of the Fed Reserve
- 1:06:13Chairman Jay Powell's speech, I'd like to draw your attention
- 1:06:16to the fact that leverage in the system is right below historic
- 1:06:20highs. So as much as we are are, you
- 1:06:23know, as much as I try not to be a dollar doomer, there is a lot
- 1:06:26of things going on that are correlations to what we've seen
- 1:06:30happen in the past when very bad things have happened.
- 1:06:33And so again, you guys go find this, go to TFTC, love Marty
- 1:06:36Bent. I just want to kind of point out
- 1:06:38a few of the charts and a couple of the the, you know, quotes
- 1:06:42from this, but you can see this first one here for the audio
- 1:06:45listeners. Margin debt surges to 1.02
- 1:06:47trillion in July after surpassing 1 trillion for the
- 1:06:51first time in June. And quote, the financial system
- 1:06:54is more levered than it has ever been.
- 1:06:56At the same time, the pressure on Jay Powell and the Fed to
- 1:06:59lower interest rates and inflation is starting to rear
- 1:07:02its head again. This is where we are right now.
- 1:07:04And then here we got the FINRA margin debt, S&P 500 real
- 1:07:07values. And as you can see, margin debt
- 1:07:10is at all time highs. And it's, you know, that's
- 1:07:14probably why S&P 500 is. Pumping because of debt?
- 1:07:17Anyways, the question lingering in my mind, Marty says is
- 1:07:20whether or not we see a melt up in financial assets and leverage
- 1:07:23alongside with it or will gravity come into play at some
- 1:07:26point in the short and medium term and force a material
- 1:07:29correction? That's the question we're all
- 1:07:31wondering. Again, another great chart here,
- 1:07:33which really should probably terrify you if you're not a
- 1:07:36Bitcoiner, but you have U.S. stock valuations hitting new all
- 1:07:40time highs and just let's look at these dates here, very
- 1:07:43interesting dates. First one, 1929.
- 1:07:45We all know what's happening around there in 1960, five, 1999
- 1:07:49and then now new high as of August 2025.
- 1:07:55Probably, you know, not a good indicator of health in the
- 1:07:58system anyways, regardless of what ultimately happens, this is
- 1:08:02of course fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin in the medium and
- 1:08:05long term. If we get a melt up scenario, of
- 1:08:07course, Bitcoin pumps. If we get a, you know, gravity
- 1:08:10comes into play, as Marty was saying, then Bitcoin will likely
- 1:08:13correct and then people will be, as he said, starkly reminded of
- 1:08:17the insanity of the incumbent financial and monetary system
- 1:08:20yet again. And a new wave of Bitcoin
- 1:08:22adopters will enter the market. So that's just kind of showing
- 1:08:27where we are right now, just anchoring us into the present
- 1:08:30moment. But I saw this tweet.
- 1:08:32It came across my timeline this week.
- 1:08:35It was actually posted August 11th and it really starts to
- 1:08:39paint kind of a terrifying picture here.
- 1:08:42But like it it does anyways. Balaji tweets the Soviets went
- 1:08:46nuts on money printing in the years before the collapse.
- 1:08:50You can see here in 1965. Again, that was one of those
- 1:08:53dates that was part of that charm.
- 1:08:55And then, you know, it kind of dips around 75 and then it pumps
- 1:08:59around the 80s and then it starts kind of pumping in the
- 1:09:0280s, beginning of the 80s and then it.
- 1:09:05Corrects. You know what, 84 And then it
- 1:09:08goes hyper inflationary here. It just absolutely nukes in a
- 1:09:14matter of what, five years? Now the interesting part here is
- 1:09:20this quote. And as you can see here, this
- 1:09:24sounds eerily familiar. So quote.
- 1:09:26It took some time for the official numbers to catch up
- 1:09:29with reality. The regime's official numbers
- 1:09:31had long understated even the moderate levels of price
- 1:09:34inflation in earlier periods, but after the mid 80's, the gap
- 1:09:37between official inflation estimated real inflation grew
- 1:09:40considerably. Efrenov summarizes the
- 1:09:43divergent, noting that in 1988 official inflation was .6%, but
- 1:09:486% in the real marketplace. By 1989, official inflation was
- 1:09:522%, but it was really 8%. In 1990 it was 5.3%, but really
- 1:09:58it was 20%. And then the wheels started to
- 1:10:01really come off in 1991 with 96.3% official inflation.
- 1:10:07That was really 200% inflation. The Soviet Union collapsed
- 1:10:12shortly thereafter, and the new regime did not issue falsified
- 1:10:15inflation numbers anymore. Instead, the real inflation rate
- 1:10:18in 1992 was estimated to be more than 2300 percent.
- 1:10:23Hyperinflation continued for three more years until the old
- 1:10:26Soviet rubil finally ceased to exist.
- 1:10:30Again. History doesn't repeat, but it
- 1:10:32rhymes. Now I'm not saying we are in
- 1:10:34that exact scenario currently in the US, but if you look at this
- 1:10:39chart here. Again, let let's take a good
- 1:10:42look. Picture this chart here.
- 1:10:43You know, it's kind of going up and then it start going crazy.
- 1:10:47It's going to come down and then it's going to go nuclear.
- 1:10:50Well, here's the USM 2 money supply.
- 1:10:54It's going up. In a very similar fashion here,
- 1:10:58I would say we're at like 1982 levels potentially.
- 1:11:02Of course I'm speculating here, maybe they can get it under
- 1:11:06control. And I'm not saying we are going
- 1:11:08to hyperinflate anytime soon per SE.
- 1:11:11Nothing, nothing stops this. Train, I agree now on that
- 1:11:14front. This is the other kind of chart
- 1:11:16that really shows nothing starts stops this train here's the
- 1:11:20global M2 money supply that is going nuclear here and again,
- 1:11:26look at these dates. I was checking this out this
- 1:11:28morning. You know, right before the great
- 1:11:31financial crisis we had about $30 trillion in debt.
- 1:11:35In 2009 when you know it kind of like the IT abated.
- 1:11:39Things were getting kind of back to normal.
- 1:11:41We are at $36 trillion in global debt and then again here in
- 1:11:462020, we were at about 67 trillion before they printed a
- 1:11:51whole bunch of money ended somewhere around 70 trillion ish
- 1:11:56dollars. And now since then, this is what
- 1:11:59I was saying earlier like $70 trillion by end of 2020.
- 1:12:04Today we are almost at 100 and trillion, $100 trillion in
- 1:12:09global M2 money supply. And then the the money supply is
- 1:12:13expanded by 25% globally in five years.
- 1:12:19They target 2%. It's not 2%.
- 1:12:24I'm not saying we are going to see hyperinflation in the US.
- 1:12:29All I'm saying is that it seems like the global money supply is
- 1:12:34expanding globally. So the next crisis here is not
- 1:12:38going to just be in the US. This is going to be a global
- 1:12:41thing because everyone has the same problem.
- 1:12:44And if you're not in Bitcoin, what what?
- 1:12:47Well, you know, what happened in the Soviet USSR might happen
- 1:12:51globally. There's nowhere to run.
- 1:12:53The only place to run is Bitcoin.
- 1:12:55Again, kind of a doomer end to the show.
- 1:12:58But history does give us some clues of what is going to come
- 1:13:02down the pipeline. And I saw this tweet by Bellagio
- 1:13:06and I'm like damn. That breakdown, that summary
- 1:13:09sounds exactly what we're seeing right now.
- 1:13:11Again, you know, Jay Powell and I and I, when I first thought
- 1:13:14about bringing this up, we didn't even get Jerome Powell
- 1:13:17admitting that they're going to change the the inflation target
- 1:13:21rate. And then we get that news.
- 1:13:23It sounds very very similar to what happened.
- 1:13:28At the end of the USSR, so you guys need some Bitcoin.
- 1:13:31You need to make sure you get more of your friends and family
- 1:13:34saving in Bitcoin. This is the only way out of this
- 1:13:36guys. The only way out of this debt
- 1:13:38spiral doom loop is for more people to hold Bitcoin and more
- 1:13:42people to use Bitcoin and save and store their Bitcoin in cold
- 1:13:46storage. Do not buy ETFs, do not buy the
- 1:13:49Bitcoin treasury stocks, buy Bitcoin.
- 1:13:51Take it into self custody. It's the only way that you will
- 1:13:55be able to survive whatever financial crises is potentially
- 1:13:59going to happen. We all know boom and bust
- 1:14:01cycles. They happen pretty sickly, sick,
- 1:14:04cyclically, cyclically. It's Friday.
- 1:14:08It's Friday, but it's been an exactly, it's been an, it's
- 1:14:12Friday, but it's been an incredible week.
- 1:14:14And the reason we're going to the, we're going to, we're going
- 1:14:16to end off the week very, very nicely, ladies and gentlemen,
- 1:14:20because what a, what a better way.
- 1:14:23What you can't, you can't end the week in a better way than
- 1:14:28giving away some Sats. And that's exactly what we're
- 1:14:31going to do. And we're going to do it with
- 1:14:33our boys over at the best place by far to build your automatic
- 1:14:39self custody Bitcoin stack Bitcoin well.
- 1:14:43So every time you buy Bitcoin on Bitcoin well, ladies and
- 1:14:46gentlemen, you earn something called Bitcoin Well points, and
- 1:14:50you can use those points. So there's a bunch of different
- 1:14:51prizes. You could also use those points
- 1:14:54towards the Bitcoin wishing well contest, which are going to be
- 1:14:56doing live for you guys right now on air.
- 1:14:59And every single time you toss a coin into the wishing well, you
- 1:15:02win some Satoshi's and you have an opportunity to win up to
- 1:15:061,000,000 Satoshi's every single toss.
- 1:15:09So let's see what today's prize is.
- 1:15:11Get your Lightning wallets ready.
- 1:15:12And today's prize is 549 SAT's if you go to
- 1:15:19bitcoinwell.com/simply. Again, bitcoinwell.com/simply
- 1:15:25when you sign up to Bitcoin Well.
- 1:15:26You get 3. Tosses into the wishing well
- 1:15:28Every single toss you have an opportunity to win up to
- 1:15:311,000,000 Satoshi's, which is north of $1000 these days
- 1:15:35absolutely crazy. Anyways, I'm going to end it up.
- 1:15:37I'm going to end today's show on that note and giving away some
- 1:15:41stats to the views to the viewers and the listeners guys,
- 1:15:45we love you all thank you guys so much from the bottom of our
- 1:15:48heart for tuning in this week. This week was a major milestone
- 1:15:52for simply Bitcoin. We broke 100,000 subscribers on
- 1:15:55YouTube. It's been a hell of a journey
- 1:16:01with with my brother from another mother here Opti and of
- 1:16:04course the whole Simply Bitcoin crew.
- 1:16:06How? To do that feeling.
- 1:16:11And we love you guys, appreciate it.
- 1:16:13Go outside, touch some grass, enjoy the weekend, smash the
- 1:16:15like. Consider subscribing if you feel
- 1:16:17like we provided you value. And we'll be back on Monday for
- 1:16:21a brand new episode of Simply. Today's episode was brought to
- 1:16:26you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
- 1:16:29mission to enable financial independence.