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3 Teams That Could Make A Surprising Run To The College Football Playoff · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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Welcome to buck Eyes tomorrow morning for Friday, July fifth. I'm your host,
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Tom Moore. The Acron game in fifty seven days, the game against
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Michigan in one hundred and forty eight days. Day were welcoming back a guest
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I haven't had on for a little while. Tyler's shoemaker. He is the
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founder and proprietor of the T Shoe Index, a ranking system. I'm going
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to let him explain a little bit more what he does with his numbers,
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what his numbers do, and what that allows him to do. Here's a
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hint. He's coming to you very live from Las Vegas right now. Tyler,
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welcome back, Glad to have you, and I guess before we dive
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into this year's numbers on college football, just give people a little bit of
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a background on the T Shoe Index, how you got into all this stuff
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and what you do with your numbers. Yeah, well, first, thanks
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for having me back. It's good to be back. It's been a while,
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but been a pretty regular guest over the years. So my T Shoe
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Index, it started seven years ago, I think literally with some pen and
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paper math just doing some basic projections. Than that evolved into a spreadsheet,
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and now that spreadsheet has evolved into the complex you know, Python script running
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machine that it is today. So I've definitely learned a lot over the years.
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But at the end of the day, I just I want to be
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able to answer the question how many points would Team A be expected to score
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and allow against Team B. So it's a tempo and opponent adjusted metric,
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you know that takes all those things into consideration. So you're not you know,
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rewarding teams like Army for instance, for playing super you know, slow
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pace and only having seven possessions in a game. So you're not rewarding them
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and saying, oh, well, they have an excellent defense just because they
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play a slower tempo the most. In conversely, you're not rewarding the old
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Air Raid Texas Tech teams, you know, for how they played. So
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it's tempo adjusted, opponent adjusted to give me my power ratings, and I
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project totals for every game as well. And like you mentioned it, you
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know, allows us to find great betting edges, which I hope to do
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here while I'm in sunny Las Vegas. Yeah, and you don't just do
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this for college football either. I see a lot of w NB on your
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timeline, which has always always been with those things. That's fascinating because I
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think, you know, NFL, there's a lot of people looking at the
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NFL, feels like there's fewer people looking at the w NBA. Might be
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an area where you can, you know, maybe maybe find some edges that
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other people have not found. And I saw on your Twitter timeline you were
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even went to a Las Vegas Aces game last night. Does that sort of
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turned into an interest for you? Yeah, it's really fun and I mean
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I've become i think one of the foremost people in the betting industry for women's
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basketball WNBA and women's college basketball because like you said, it's kind of an
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untapped market. You know, it's growing in popularity now this year more,
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you know, with Caitlin Clark and the Angel Reese and that that rookie class.
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But I've been doing this for a couple of years, been really successful
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betting it. They definitely are softer markets than, like you said, the
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NFL in particular, so it's kind of kind of an untapped market for now.
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So I'm you know, kind of exploring the wild wild West by myself.
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All right. Normally we let that we leave the plugs for the end
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of the show. But I'm gonna let you just upfront, let people know,
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Hey, if I'm interested in Tyler's numbers on college football or w NBA
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or anything else, where can they find your stuff? Where can they find
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you? On Twitter? All that? Yeah, So I write daily articles,
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projections and everything for VSA dot com. The best place is just to
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follow me on x at Tshue index. If you're interested in getting my guides
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WNBA, I just released my college football and NFL guides. Just send me
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a DM and we'll get that worked out. But there's a lot of good
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stuff in there. You get spread total moneyline win probabilities for every single game
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of the season. You get those projections ahead of time. So it really
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if you're interested in betting or just interested in college football in general and understanding
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kind of the landscape, it is a really valuable tool, I think,
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yeah, And it is incredibly in depth. I was looking through his college
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football stuff before we did the show, and you're scrolling through this tab this
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sea of tabs on a big spreadsheet, and it's like Texas A and m
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Commerce. I forgot that they had even moved up and don't worry, he
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has a full profile for Texas A and M Commerce, stony Brook and Tarleton
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State and everyone else, and yes, Ohio State and Georgia and Oregon as
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well. So we're to be mostly focusing more on the Ohio State and Georgia
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end of things than the stony Brook and Tarleton State. But if you are
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interested, it's all there. So there you go. So let's let's start,
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I guess with sort of a little of a big picture question for this
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year. You mentioned you've been doing this for seven years. Now, what
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kind of a challenge is it this year with the numbers? Because you're dealing
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with no Normally you'd go, okay, the big ten teams. They all
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played the Big ten teams last year, so you feel like you have,
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at least within the conference a decent set of data to work with going off
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of last year. This year, it's like they just kind of took all
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the names and threw them up in the air, and wherever they landed,
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they landed. You got overhauled SEC and overhauled Big ten, and overhauled Big
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twelve and overhauled ACC. How big of a challenge is that? And you
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know, does that make maybe make you less confident in your numbers this year,
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or is it just kind of you know, the fact that you have
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the data from last year, it doesn't matter. It should you know,
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it should basically work as it has in the past. Is it Are there
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more questions than normal or not? Uh, That's that's a really good question.
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I don't think so. I think it should be business as usual.
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I mean, the benefit of having been doing this for so long is,
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you know, I've got ratings back to nineteen seventy right now. I think
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so having that historical data and understanding how teams have teams and programs have done
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historically, particularly in college football, like you know, pretty much every year
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you can bank on Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, you know, all
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being near the top. So from that standpoint, it should be business as
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usual. I think the big thing that separates my numbers from some of the
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other models is I do factor in you know, recruiting rankings, which now
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factors in the transfer portal. I kind of lump those together, but I
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also have a development rating that kind of rewards teams like Iowa that develop well,
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but you know, may not recruit a bunch of five stars, but
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their power rating is always good. So those teams, you know, now
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I have the foresight in the preseason to understand how those recruiting rankings correlate to
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a power rating for certain coaches in certain programs. But when you were talking
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earlier about doing this with pen and paper, you know, I can't I
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can't imagine you were able to do a development rating adjustment with the pen and
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paper numbers earlier. Yeah, definitely feels like this is you know, the
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system has gotten more complicated, uh, just to deal with the you know,
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the the more complicated world of college football now. So you know,
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the reason I'm having you on is because I have followed your numbers, and
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your numbers are generally very good, so you know, interested in what they
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have to say this year. You have a one of your tabs on your
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on your sheet is best bets, and you know this is you know,
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we're almost not going to talk about this in the in the context of gambling,
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because this is a couple of those teams are really interesting to me because
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of where they fall. Notre Dame over ten wins, Missouri over nine point
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five wins. That means that if those are you know, if those really
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are good the best bets that this is a decent proxy for teams that are
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maybe more likely than you might think to make the college football playoffs. So
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what is it about Notre Dame and Missouri that makes you think that they might
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be a little bit undervalued right now? Yeah? Well, I think it's
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a combination of two things. I think both programs have an upward trajectory right
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now, which is something that I really look at with my preseason numbers,
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is like, not only not only how good were you last year or how
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good are you usually? But what is the you know, if I were
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to make a graph, what you know, what is that line doing?
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Is it? Is it going up linearly? You know? Pretty much?
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And I think for both of these programs it is, especially under their their
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current head coaches. So I really like the trajectory of both teams. The
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other thing here, especially when you're talking about like a season win total bet
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for instance, both teams have really soft strength of schedules, you know,
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relative to some other top teams. And I've got I've got Missouri power rated
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fifth, I've got Notre Dame six right behind them, and both of them
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have a strength of schedule which is, by my terms, is average opponent
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power rating that has a minus in front of it. So they're playing a
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below average team on average week to week. So you know you've got a
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good team with a soft schedule, and that's a recipe for a really good
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season. All right. So now let's move on to the top of the
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sport and your ratings. I'm just going to read through your top ten right
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now, and this is going to be a lot of this. A lot
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of these names are gonna sound familiar and probably align similarly, at least to
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some degree with where people think teams might finish. But number one Ohio State,
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number two Georgia, number three Oregon. That one's an interesting one to
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me. May be talking about the Ducks a little bit more later. Number
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four Texas, number five, Missouri, number six, Notre Dame, number
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seven, Ole, miss number eight, Penn State number Now I'm off by
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one because Michigan is number ten, so I'm off by one somewhere there.
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But you know, the top Big twelve team have Utah at fifteen, Kansas
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State at sixteen. Top ACC team is Florida State at twenty. Top non
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power team Boise State at thirty five, this feels I mean, nine of
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the top ten out of the Big Ten or the SEC, the only exception
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being Notre Dame. This, I mean, this feels like a year when
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this could really be a two conference show in a lot of ways. Yeah,
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I mean that's kind of been the trend, you know, since conference
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realignment kind of started back up. That's you can just see college football kind
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of moving towards this two super conference dynamic. And that's I think this year
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is really indicative of that. I mean, like you said, especially you
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look at the top four Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas. That's
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two Big Ten, two SEC. And if those four teams are not in
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the twelve team playoff, I will be stunned as as well a lot of
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people. I think my numbers are extremely low on the ACC just as a
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whole, Clemson in particular. I don't know if we're going to get into
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them or not, but very very on Clemson relative to where like the betting
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market is and just the general consensus, you know, definitely lower than EA
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Sports has them, I'll tell you that. Yeah. And I went back
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and looked. I missed the fact that you had a header row on your
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spreadsheet. So Michigan is number nine, Alabama number ten. There you go,
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pro professional spreadsheet reader me. Great job me. But yes, Alabama
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in the in the top ten as well. You know you're looking at the
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big ten numbers. This feels like it's gonna be. It looks like it's
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shaping up to be a fairly top heavy conference. But the four teams just
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mentioned, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan all rated you know,
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projected you know, nine wins or better or so, Ohio State at
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ten point six, Oregon at ten point four, Penn State at nine point
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six, Michigan at eight point eight. You know, first of a game.
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First of all, this feels like a great example of how hard it's
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going to be to win every game every year. I say, never predict
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a team to go undefeated because it is just so hard to run the table.
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When you're playing multiple good teams. O High State at ten point six
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wins, I think people would think, you know, how could this team,
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this team is so good, how could they lose a game in the
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regular season. It adds up. The probability adds up over the course of
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multiple tough games. So, first of all, how tough it is to
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win every game. Second of all, this should be a really good season
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at the top of the Big Ten. Yeah, it should be. I
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mean, the one big question mark that I have and that I think a
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lot of people have, is what is Michigan going to look like? You
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know, with so much turnover on the roster and the coaching staff, you
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know, potential sanctions, you know that sort of thing. So I do,
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like you said, I do have them in my top ten. That's
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just kind of a hat tip to where they've been the last few years.
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I do think they have a high floor because their defense is going to be
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good. I don't know how high their ceiling is given that they don't really
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have a proven quarterback that I don't even think Michigan fans have a ton of
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faith in Alex Orgi right now. So Michigan is the team that kind of
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intrigues me the most there, Pennston. I know, you know a lot
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of people are high on them. Their season win total is nine and a
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half. Oregon again, the Oregon Ohio State game in October is just going
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to be an absolute banger. I've got Ohio State favored by one in that
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game, right now, so it is truly truly a coin flip game,
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you know. And then you've got usc kind of outside that group looking in,
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curious to see what they may look like on the defensive side, now
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that Alex Grinch is no longer calling the defense, because as Ohio State fans
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know, and Alex Grinch defense is nothing to be excited about. No,
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yeah, that's that's gonna be a very different that's gonna be a very very
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different look for you know, you get Brian Farrens out of the league,
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you get Alex Brinch out of the league, it could be a very different
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looking season for several Big Ten teams. This year. You have the Buckeyes
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rated as having the best offense and the second best defense in the league,
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behind only Iowa. I probably don't need to tell you which which side of
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the ball that is that Iowa's number one, Oregon just one spot behind a
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Ohio State in each category. As you said, it is, your numbers
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have it as a one point game when the buck Eyes play out in Eugene
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in what could be you know, potentially one versus two, two versus three,
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one of those one of those games, one of the biggest game in
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bigger, biggest regular season game in program history potentially for Oregon. I mean,
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just a monster game. And it also just when you look at the
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numbers and you sort of game things out a little bit in terms of how
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the conference could play out, how the national picture could play out. You
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know, Tony Gerderman and I've talked about this over under on the number of
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times Ohio State and Oregon play over one point five feels like that's a pretty
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good bet right now, right Yeah, I would think so. I mean,
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the thing that Penn State has going for is it's schedule. They I
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mean, they do play Ohio State, that's at home. They don't play
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Michigan, they don't play Oregon. So Penn State from a schedule standpoint kind
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of has a more favorable path, whereas obviously Ohio State and Oregon have to
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face each other. But yeah, I if I had to bet on who
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I think is going to be in the Big Ten Championship, I certainly think,
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especially in this new format, that it would be Ohio State and Oregon.
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One thing that will help determine whether the Ohio State organ game is a
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two versus three game or a one versus two game is Georgia. Georgia probably
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going to be number one going into the season in most of the ratings,
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most of the polls. The Bulldogs do not have an easy game week one.
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They've actually got a couple potentially losable games before the Buckeyes and Ducks would
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meet. But Week one, Georgia favored by what almost two touchdowns over Clemson
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something like that, And your numbers say that might not be enough that it
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seems like you like the Dogs a lot over Clemson in Week one. I
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do. I mean, my numbers are high on high on Georgia, low
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on Clemson. I've got that projected at about nineteen and a half. The
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line's currently thirteen and a half. So I've already put a bet on the
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Dogs against Clemson on the neutral site game in Week one. I again to
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Clemson. I just continue to pound the drum since Trevor Lawrence left. I
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mean, they're they're power rating their their data just is not there. I
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just I cannot get there. They've recruited well, and the thing is they
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kind of get the reputation of this developmental program, but that my numbers don't
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bear that out over the last three or four years. So uh, low
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again low on Clemson. I do think Georgia, I've only you know,
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I've got them number two, and people are going to see that and be
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like, oh my gosh, she's he's got Georgia number two. But they're
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half a point behind Ohio State. So you know, on a new sial,
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you're basically calling that a pick them. So they're basically one A,
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one B right now. I think everyone around college football would would agree on
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that, and then Oregon Texas right right behind them. Is there anyone that
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you have in your ratings that you know you vary significantly from a lot of
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the other teams. I mean I've picked up several of the preseason magazines where
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they've had Michigan projected as you know, a you know, five seed in
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the playoff, six seed in the playoffs something like that. Seems like you're
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a little lower on Michigan than some other other folks. Is there is there
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anyone else that you are either substantially higher or substantially lower on your numbers compared
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to, you know, so maybe the general consensus or public opinion. Yeah,
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I mean again, the acc just in general of Florida State, like
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you mentioned, the highest rated ACC team in my rankings at nineteen, I've
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got them seventeen points behind you know, the Ohio State Georgia Tier, which
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I mean, on its face, you know, they went undefeated last year,
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but Jordan Travis did a lot for that team, and losing him and
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Keyon Coleman I think is huge for them. I think they're going to take
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a step back, but luckily for them, the ACC's week, so you
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know they still I still have them atop the conference this year. Another team
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I'm probably higher on than most is Kansas. I've got them at eighteen,
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and honestly, I had to kind of pull the reins back on that project
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because since Lance Leipold has been there, their ratings, their data just is
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going sky high. So I kind of had to pull the reins back a
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little bit on Kansas. When I did my first run through of numbers,
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I had them number one in the Big twelve, and I've since knocked that
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down a little bit. I've got them third in the Big twelve and then
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one more team, Tennessee. I've got them at twelve. I think I
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think they're poise for a good year. They've got a soft schedule, you
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know, for an SEC team that it's not the usual kind of gauntlet that
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they've they've had to play, so I think their schedule was favorable. So
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if they made a playoff spot, I wouldn't be surprised this year. All
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right, one more time, let people know where they can find you and
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where they can find your numbers, because again I cannot give this a strong
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enough recommendation. Incredible amount of data here and some really really good information whether
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you are a gambler or just want to sort of understand college football and where
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teams may really stack up beyond you know, beyond just the noise and the
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hype. Yeah, yeah, I said. Best place is to follow me
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on x at t shoe Index. I tweet out everything I do, all
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my bets, any nuggets I come across, you know, especially here in
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the off season, I'll tweet out, you know, some historic top offenses,
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top defenses, that sort of thing. So just some interesting stuff,
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whether you're a better or not, I think there's some good information there just
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to kind of context you aalized college football both this year and historically. All
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right, Well, thank you again to Tyler for joining me, Thank you
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all for joining me, Thank you all for being members at bucke Huddle dot
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com if you remember, and if you're not, what are you waiting for?
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Bucke huddle dot com is where Tony, Kevin and I cover the team,
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Mark covers recruiting, got our whole team of x's and o's, guruz
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making you a smarter football fan. A request in on our board for a
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in the coming days and weeks on the huddle Board presented by Jeff Ruby Steakhouse
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all at buckey Huddle dot com. We hope to see you there. That'll
18:53
do it for today. Thank you guys all for joining us. Have a
18:56
great day, have a great long weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday.