Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 574 - 9/8/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 574 - 9/8/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to Episode. 570.
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  Four of the all systems go. Sports betting podcast powered
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  by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh.
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  Applebaum, what's going on, everybody?
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  Happy Tuesday, Another day here in the arena.
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  Guys, but more importantly, welcome.
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  To NFL Week 1. That's right, the best.
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  Sport on earth to sweat. It's here we wet our whistle
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  with a little. Bit of college football.
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  I love college football too. Let's be honest, there's nothing
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  better than sweating the NFL so. It all starts this week.
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  Guys, we actually have. The opener.
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  Tomorrow night, patriots and. Seahawks rematch of the Super.
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  Bowl. And I have a best bet for you.
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  I wanted to talk about it today because this line is moving and
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  I want to make sure we get a specific.
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  Number also happens to be a very sharp rhythm edge as well.
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  So we're going to talk a lot of NF.
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  Li have a play. That we're going to talk.
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  About for New England, Seattle tomorrow.
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  And then I just wrote my first week 1.
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  Early Sharp. Report for visen.com and there
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  are three bets that I'm really liking.
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  For this Sunday. So 3 bets overall, we're going
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  to talk system. Matches, and historically it has
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  been. A good spot to take dogs in week
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  one, week one dog. Since 2016, they're.
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  Covering about 5550. 6% of the time you can actually.
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  Add in some more. Filters like Rd. dogs or.
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  Dogs who? Miss the playoffs the previous
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  season? Big dog.
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  Seven or more. Again, there's different ways
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  to. Kind of skin the cat.
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  Here but historically week 1 you see these.
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  Dogs do pretty well. Knock on what I'm hoping that
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  continues. Because basically everyone's
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  even, you know, everybody's healthy.
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  There's a lot of. You know, biases at.
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  Play where the public says, oh, you missed the playoffs last
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  year. You.
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  Stink I don't want. To play you.
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  You made the playoffs last year. You're a good team.
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  I want to bet you. So just taking advantage of.
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  That buy low, sell high. In a level playing field.
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  Typically, that's why we've seen these dogs.
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  Perform very well so stay tuned I'm going to put.
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  Out a tweet. With some betting systems.
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  Here week one dog systems to keep an eye out for, but
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  overall, guys A. 4 Pack of NFL. Plays to talk about here for
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  today. Now, I could have forced an MLB
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  play again. I don't want to completely give
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  up on MLB, but over the weekend. I had a great time visiting with
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  my. In laws we had a live.
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  Fantasy draft. It was an auction.
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  Draft. It was super.
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  Fun. I stayed at the Burning Stone
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  casino in. Upstate New York.
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  Just a great time, but I was talking.
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  To my guy Bernie, who's a wise guy, he's kind of like my
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  father-in-law. My.
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  Uncle in law, but. He's a great dude, huge fan of
• 2:46
  the pod even. Signed up for Survivor.
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  But he was telling me. Hey, I'll get back when.
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  It comes to MLB postseason, but until then?
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  Again, it's just so erratic in baseball.
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  Right now down the stretch, so it's not.
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  You know, give away more. Units than we have to.
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  Let's focus on college football. NFL.
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  That's where it's at. And we really want to devote our
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  bankroll to betting football right now.
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  So overall, guys, no. Sweats for tonight, but for.
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  NFL plays to talk about. I can't wait to break down them
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  all for you. And probably have some more.
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  These are just kind of the first four that really jumped out to
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  me. I try not to bet.
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  More than like five NFL bets a week when I was new in the
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  sports. Betting.
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  I mean I would have 15. Bets bet on every game a player
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  prop. And then overtime I realized,
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  you know what, the more games you bet on.
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  The more risk you assume the odds makers the.
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  Juice eats at you, so. Kind of less is more, so I try
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  to. We talk about baseball like a
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  three pack try to go. Two and one eke out of winning
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  night. Well, I try to go, you know, 5
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  pack of NFL. Plays a week.
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  Try to. Grind out as many. 3 and twos as
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  you can and then. When you get a four and one.
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  A5 and O maybe? Hey, it's even.
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  Better and of course the prime time games that's.
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  Where it's at too, with a lot of these.
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  Contrarian Systems. I'll be the way guys, before we
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  jump into our our early sharp report here as well as some
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  early NFL. Bets which you are welcome.
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  To to ride with me if you if you so choose.
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  I just wanted to mention that the Splash Sports second annual
• 4:08
  Applebaum Survivor Contest. I'm going to keep.
• 4:11
  Pounding you with this? But I want to thank everybody
• 4:13
  because we're up to. 177 entries so I'm loving it.
• 4:18
  Reminder it's 50 bucks. To enter, it's a classic.
• 4:20
  Survivor you got to pick. One team per week.
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  You can't use them again. And I would mention, I don't
• 4:26
  know everyone's, almost everybody.
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  Seems to be going with the Chargers at home.
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  Against Arizona. Who knows what this means, but
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  some sharp money did take. Arizona, I saw the Cardinals go
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  from plus 10 1/2 down to plus 9 1/2 so.
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  Wouldn't be it wouldn't be insane if everyone took.
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  Chargers and they somehow. Lost to Jacoby Brissette, as
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  crazy as that sounds. Probably unlikely, but money
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  did. Come in with the points.
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  There, maybe it's closer. Than you think.
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  With the Cardinals, but either. Way I want to thank everyone for
• 4:51
  joining the Survivor. Contest and I want to.
• 4:53
  Remind you, you don't have until tomorrow.
• 4:55
  You have. Actually, up until Sunday at.
• 4:57
  1:00 Once all that big Sunday slate on September 13th gets
• 5:02
  going, then it's. Over you cannot join anymore, so
• 5:05
  you got to get. In prior to Sunday the 13th at
• 5:07
  1:00. But don't, don't be scrambling.
• 5:09
  You know it's going to be crazy that.
• 5:10
  Sunday with our first. Big, big day of sweats.
• 5:14
  So get in now, again 50 bucks an entry you can.
• 5:16
  Win up to 40. 5 grand. Thank you if you've already
• 5:19
  joined, if you if you're thinking about it.
• 5:21
  Come on down again. I always.
• 5:23
  Joke, but hey. You know Survivor.
• 5:25
  If you don't sign up and then it gets going, you're going to be
• 5:28
  missing out. You're going to get that.
• 5:29
  FOMO, so come on down. I'm also challenging you if
• 5:33
  you've already signed up. Now, now, now, go find someone
• 5:35
  else. Your uncle, Your cousin.
• 5:37
  Your son, your nephew, your colleague, your coworker.
• 5:40
  The more people that sign up, the more you know.
• 5:42
  Pass. Around this this invite link,
• 5:44
  the more signups the. More people enter.
• 5:46
  The bigger the pot, so whoever wins it all, you're going to
• 5:48
  make more money, the more. People that join so you.
• 5:51
  Can always go to my Twitter page at Josh under score.
• 5:53
  Insights and get the link. For the survivor, you can also
• 5:56
  just click if you're listening. To this pod on Spotify.
• 5:58
  ITunes, whatever platform, it'll be right in that bio
• 6:01
  description, so it'll say. Episode 574 Josh dishes out you
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  know for early NFL Week 1 plays. And then I'll have a little link
• 6:08
  there to sign up for. Survivor, but you can always
• 6:10
  reach out to me. At Josh.
• 6:11
  Under Score Insights on Twitter, or X as it's now called.
• 6:15
  But anyway. Guys, football's here.
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  So let's get after it. I want to.
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  Kind of think of it this way too.
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  Like, you know, I like to wait a lot for these NFL Sunday games
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  just. To let the dust settle.
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  That big bets come in. The more data, the more info.
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  Kind of the stronger the market analysis is.
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  But I also like to bet games early, so I think you want to
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  look at it one of two ways, if you can identify a sharp
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  situation or angle. With a lot of system matches and
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  you can get like a 7 1/2 on a. Tuesday thinking it's going.
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  To get down to 7. Or maybe you're looking at, you
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  know, the the under. 45 1/2. It's looking like it's.
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  Getting down to 45. Those are the games we're going
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  to bet earlier in the week. So always think about early.
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  Bets in the week you want to be selective, but we're looking
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  for. Key numbers and hooks.
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  Once we get later in the week, then we.
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  Will probably add a couple. Plays that that really jump out
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  to us. But again.
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  As we get into the routine of betting football.
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  Again, probably. Tuesdays.
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  Either Tuesdays or Wednesdays. We'll do early.
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  NFL and and college. Plays but.
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  I just want to mention. That because again, people
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  always ask like, should I bet the game?
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  Early. Should I wait?
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  It really depends. It depends.
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  On kind of where? Which side's getting juiced up,
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  where the line's trending, and where your system?
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  Matches are at. So that being said, let's get
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  right into it, guys. NFL Week 1, we got the Patriots.
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  In Seattle tomorrow, I. Want to mention two things real
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  quick, by the way. Take advantage of all these odds
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  boosts and bonuses. Right now, because of sports.
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  Books. They want you to bet.
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  At their book, so I. Was in New York.
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  With my With my. In Laws doing the fantasy draft.
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  And I noticed. That I was being offered in New
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  York, and it wasn't just New York.
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  It was also Massachusetts. But there is a FanDuel promo
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  right now. You can only risk.
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  Up to 25 bucks, but it's a free 25 bucks.
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  It's just a promo. It's a.
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  Way to get people to. Bet at FanDuel.
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  But as long as one. Point is scored in the Seahawks
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  Patriots game tomorrow. You get a free 25 bucks so you
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  risk 25. You get 20. 5 Again, I wouldn't
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  laugh at 25 bucks so take advantage of that.
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  I also had Bally Bally bets they they're Bally sports, whatever.
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  They they gave me a. Boost on a futures.
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  So Rams or plus +500 to win it all.
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  They gave me a. Boost up to plus 750 so I put a
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  unit on the Rams to. Win the Super Bowl.
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  Also, I had a book. Offer me something on a college
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  football. Champion.
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  I think it. Was I took Notre Dame?
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  Like. I think they're +6. 50.
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  I got them up to. Plus 850.
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  So the whole point being is, you know, once the season starts,
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  all these promos close. The books want your action.
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  Take advantage if you're going to give me a.
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  Big odds boost on a future I'll take a shot.
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  I'll either try to hopefully win it or be able to hedge later.
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  But again, keep an eye out for all these.
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  Boosts because there's actually one.
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  On the Patriots game for tomorrow as well.
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  Either way, guys, let's talk about our first early bet.
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  I put this in. Today, because it's moving and
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  I'm hoping that we can at least cash by getting this good number
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  right now. So it is Patriots, Seahawks.
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  Tomorrow night, it's going to. Be the of course rematch.
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  Of the Super Bowl, and I'm hoping that the same thing
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  doesn't happen to me. Twice in a row where I take the
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  Patriots and they lose and don't cover.
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  But anyway, tomorrow, 8:00 or 8:20 on NBC season opener.
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  One off. Extremely heavily back game.
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  And guys I put my play in on. Patriots.
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  Plus 3 1/2 Now here's my angle one.
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  Let's look at the betting. Market because basically the
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  betting market opens Seattle around a 3 1/2 point favorite.
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  I think some books may have been around 4/4 and 1/2.
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  I don't think. That was that high, but.
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  Basically, it was Seattle -3 1/2.
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  And what I was focusing. On and this is something.
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  You can really do in any game around a hook or a key number is
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  where's the juice trending? Because the juice is important,
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  It's super important. It's not just the amount of
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  money you got. To pay on each bed, but if you
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  pay attention to which side is getting juiced up.
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  So -115 or higher, that's going to tell.
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  You not only where the liability is, but which direction.
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  The line is moving. So for example the reason.
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  Why I'm taking the Patriots, the first angle is they look sharp
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  because this line is looking like it's getting down. 3 1/2
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  down to 3. Patriots right now are down to
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  +3. At quite a few books, bet MGM
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  Caesar's. DraftKings, it's down to
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  Patriots. +3 the score, Bally, Fanatics, FanDuel.
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  They're all plus 3 1/2 but. Here's the thing, it's -118 -,
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  120 so. If they're juicing up the.
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  Patriots side that tells me that there's.
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  Liability Patriots. That tells me that if you want
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  to bet the Pats, I wouldn't wait until tomorrow, opening day,
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  because every. Book might get down to three.
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  That's the direction it's trending.
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  Now flip it the other way. If, hypothetically, Seattle was.
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  -3 1/2 -, 115 - 120. That would tell us it's probably
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  going to. 4 at which? Point if you like Seattle.
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  Probably bet it now. If you like the Patriots, wait
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  and try to get a. 4 So just from the standpoint of first
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  indicator to me. Patriots have the late.
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  Movement breaking in their direction.
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  And. I want to get the hook. #2
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  Patriots are contrarian right now.
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  Only 44. Percent of spread bets at
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  DraftKings are on New England now.
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  I would have loved if there's only 24% of spread bets on New
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  England. But the point being is that in a
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  heavily. Bet primetime game.
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  Everyone's going to be. Watching and betting on.
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  This game nearly 60. Percent of bets are on Seattle,
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  so here we're building a case Patriots.
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  Are contrarian and heavily back. Game every drunk guy at the boss
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  saying, yeah, you got a ham, a Seattle, they're going to roll.
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  By two touchdowns plus you Did you watch the?
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  Super Bowl again. I did.
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  I lost on the Patriots, but I take.
• 11:40
  Each game individually based on. The merits of the data.
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  Then you look. At Circa.
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  Super sharp split on the Patriots over at Circa.
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  Only 31% of spread bets around New England.
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  But it accounts for 50. 1% of spread dollars.
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  So again, I was. Talking to my guy Bernie about
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  those circa splits coming out of Vegas.
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  Where sharps? I like to get down and circa
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  does it the right way. They don't if you're a winning
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  better. They don't limit you.
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  And they also don't outright refuse your action.
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  So only 1/3. Of tickets but half.
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  The money out in Vegas on the Patriots so sharp split.
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  So Pat's are contrarian at DraftKings nationally.
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  They got a sharp low bets high. Dollar split at circa the 3 1/2
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  is falling down to three. Then we get into a couple other
• 12:23
  factors. Week one dogs.
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  Very simple but week 1. Dogs, as I mentioned.
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  Doing great. 5556. Percent against the spread.
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  So we have. That in our back pocket I also
• 12:33
  was. Looking at the injury.
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  Report and what jumped. Out to me is that I believe both
• 12:38
  starting. Safeties for the Seahawks.
• 12:40
  Are out for this game. I know it's eman worry and then
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  it's the other guy and I think they lost woolen and free
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  agency, so both. Safeties are out again, Drake.
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  Made deep ball adding A.J. Brown, Romeo.
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  Dobbs. Maybe that's a?
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  Bit of an equalizer here. Patriots beefed up their
• 12:54
  offensive. Line.
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  They got rolled in the Super Bowl.
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  You also have the other angle. I'm not going to get too much
• 12:59
  into this because I'm a data-driven better, but you do
• 13:01
  have the, you know, raising of the Banner Patriots Revenge A.
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  Lot of times. Historically, you see the.
• 13:08
  The team who's the champion win this game.
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  But the last five years, I want to say I don't have the exact
• 13:15
  number, but I think. The last five years that the the
• 13:17
  dog has covered this game. Four out of five times or three
• 13:20
  out of five times. So again.
• 13:21
  I'm going off the data but. Is there a revenge angle?
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  What I really like though. 16% sharp mush edge on New England
• 13:29
  at. Juice Reel.
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  It's a lot of sharps at Juice Reel going.
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  Pats in the points. But this is really the cherry on
• 13:34
  top. This is what sent me over.
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  The edge to bet the Patriots I popped.
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  Open rhythm and rhythm. Has a green.
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  Star smart signal recommended. Play on the Patriots Plus. 3 1/2
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  and. Rhythm has the Patriots Plus. 2
• 13:49
  1/2. So if we can get a hook 3 1/2
• 13:52
  again, most of the market is getting down to three, we can
• 13:55
  get a 3 1/2. Rhythm says it should be 2 1/2
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  again. Lose by a field goal.
• 13:59
  Hey, win the game outright. But the fact.
• 14:02
  That rhythm is with us. With a one point.
• 14:04
  Edge and a green *. Play Juice Reel.
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  Has the sharp mush edge on New England they're.
• 14:09
  Contrina DK They got low bits higher dollars at Circa.
• 14:12
  That was enough for me to say, hey, what's what?
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  The Patriots. So yes, I'm a Patriots fan, but
• 14:17
  I hope you know by now. I'll never recommend.
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  A favorite team just because they're a favorite team.
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  But when your favorite team. Happens to be sharp.
• 14:24
  You don't. Lay off just out of spite.
• 14:25
  Or, you know, some weird. I don't know reverse fan tax, so
• 14:30
  I'm going. Pats here guys again when I saw
• 14:32
  that. 3 1/2 get. Juiced up -120 and a couple
• 14:35
  books get down to three. I'm thinking let's not wait till
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  tomorrow. Let's get it in now.
• 14:39
  Mentioning Boost though, FanDuel has Patriots Plus. 3 1/2 - 118.
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  FanDuel is also. Offering an odds.
• 14:46
  Boost on the season opener. So I took advantage of that odds
• 14:49
  boost. It got me to Patriots.
• 14:51
  Plus 3 1/2 at plus 1/28. So again.
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  These are just bonuses and boosts.
• 14:57
  The whole point is they're trying to get your action.
• 15:00
  To bet at their book and not a different book, but again,
• 15:03
  market rhythm. Let's see if the Patriots can
• 15:06
  keep this close. I got them boosted at.
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  FanDuel Plus 3 1/2 -. 118 that. Up to.
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  Plus 3 1/2 + 128. Let's go Pats.
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  All right now for. Our three bets here for this.
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  Weekend. Let's talk about.
• 15:20
  Each one of them. First game that jumped out to
• 15:22
  me. Bills.
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  At Texans now, I'll kind of just mention how I wrote about this.
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  Game at the Sharp report. For visen.com, but.
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  I always look at the. The win totals to start.
• 15:31
  So the Bills 12 and. Five last year.
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  Again, kind of got robbed with that.
• 15:36
  Catch or no catch interception. Or incomplete, whatever that was
• 15:39
  in. Denver, but odds makers.
• 15:41
  Expect the Bills to be good again this year.
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  Their win. Totals 10 1/2.
• 15:45
  Juiced over. -120 at. DK Meanwhile, Texans also. 12:00
• 15:49
  and 5:00 last year. Their win totals 9.
• 15:51
  And a half juiced over. -146 at DraftKings and I will mention
• 15:55
  that one of my win totals is Texans.
• 15:58
  Over 9 1/2 wins. I really like that.
• 15:59
  Angle Now what are we seeing across the market for this game
• 16:02
  in particular? Well, the Bills open as a 1 1/2
• 16:05
  point Rd. favorite and the public is saying.
• 16:08
  Bills all day. Josh Allen, short number.
• 16:11
  Again, they're down on CJ. Stroud because he looks.
• 16:13
  So bad against the. Pats in the playoffs.
• 16:16
  But the public saying this is. Buffalo Bills all day.
• 16:18
  Right now, the Bills are getting 71.
• 16:20
  Percent of spread bets, so three out of four bets pounding
• 16:23
  Buffalo. But here's where it gets good
• 16:25
  even though Publix hammering Buffalo the Bills.
• 16:28
  Aren't up -1 1/2 to -2 - 3? Nope.
• 16:32
  The lines falling toward Houston.
• 16:34
  Houston. 'S going from plus 1 1/2 down to
• 16:37
  +1. So why is the line moving toward
• 16:39
  Houston if everyone's playing? Buffalo, it's a dead giveaway.
• 16:42
  To me that the Texans are the sharp.
• 16:44
  Play here guys. They're one of the top bet
• 16:46
  against the public plays. Of the week only getting. 29% of
• 16:50
  spread bets at. DraftKings you also look at.
• 16:53
  System matches. Week 1 Dogs 80. 6 and 70 against
• 16:56
  the spread 55 percent, 7% ROI since 2016.
• 17:01
  CJ Stroud's been good as a dog. Five and two ATS as a home dog.
• 17:05
  He's 50. 8% ATS in his career overall as a dog.
• 17:09
  And. Lastly, we have an opportunity
• 17:12
  to take advantage of another really sharp rhythm edge now
• 17:15
  Publix all over Bills. Lines falling to Texans, but our
• 17:19
  friends at Rhythm actually have Texans.
• 17:22
  Favored in this game, there is a Green Star recommended play on
• 17:26
  Houston, saying Houston should be. -1.5 Now a lot of books are
• 17:31
  1 1/2 down to 1. But I did notice that.
• 17:34
  FanDuel is still offering Texans plus 1 1/2 - 114.
• 17:38
  So I jumped on Texans. Plus 1 1/2 -, 114.
• 17:42
  Again, that ferocious defense. Are at home.
• 17:45
  They're super contrarian. They got a reverse.
• 17:47
  Line move public bills. But lines dropping toward
• 17:49
  Texans, and again when? Rhythm has a green star angle
• 17:53
  telling me this team should be favored to win and yet they're
• 17:56
  getting points. This reminds me a lot.
• 17:59
  Guys, if you remember Nevada. Over the weekend.
• 18:01
  Nevada rolled for us, came up huge against Western.
• 18:03
  Kentucky, they were like. +3 down to plus 1 1/2.
• 18:07
  Even I think they. Got down to maybe?
• 18:08
  A pick them even, but again, when rhythm tells me this team
• 18:12
  is favored to win and I can get plus 1 1/2, again, a lot of
• 18:15
  books at 1:00, but I jumped on Texans plus 1 1/2 -. 114 at
• 18:20
  FanDuel. Next one for you Saints at
• 18:22
  Lions. Saints went 6:00 and 11:00 last
• 18:25
  year. Odds makers expect them to
• 18:27
  continue. To get better.
• 18:28
  Their win total 7 1/2 / -? 120 Meanwhile, Lions 9:00 and
• 18:32
  8:00. Last year, odds makers expect
• 18:34
  Detroit to have another good. Year over 10 1/2 -. 115 now.
• 18:39
  What do we see across the market for this game?
• 18:41
  Well, this game open Detroit listed as a 7 point home
• 18:44
  favorite. Public is all over Lions.
• 18:46
  They expect the Lions to roll in this one with Eminem in the
• 18:48
  stands. 75% of spread bets are. Laying with Detroit.
• 18:52
  But here's again the important. Factor here guys. 75% of bets at
• 18:57
  DK are on the Lions, but they're not up -7 to -7 half -8.
• 19:02
  They're exactly where they. Open.
• 19:03
  They're still. -7 and if you. Look a little closer.
• 19:06
  It's not juiced up toward Detroit, it's juiced up toward
• 19:08
  the Saints. So Saints are only getting 25.
• 19:11
  Percent of bets, but they're plus 7 -, 115.
• 19:14
  Some looks even down to 6 1/2. So this tells me again, sharp
• 19:18
  line, freeze, even some sneaky. Reverse line movement if
• 19:22
  everyone. 'S playing Detroit.
• 19:23
  Why is the juiced up liability of the number even?
• 19:25
  Inching at some books down. Toward New Orleans.
• 19:29
  DraftKings 25% bets nearly half the money, though.
• 19:32
  In favor of New Orleans. Here's the kicker.
• 19:35
  Week 1 dogs getting. 6 1/2. Or more those big dogs.
• 19:38
  Those German shepherds, those Bernese.
• 19:40
  Mountain Dogs, those teams getting. 6 1/2 or.
• 19:44
  More week one dogs. They're 27 and 13 against the
• 19:47
  spread 68 percent, 31% ROI since 2016.
• 19:52
  Week 1 road Dog. Who missed the playoffs the
• 19:54
  previous year? 40 and 29.
• 19:56
  ATS 58%. 12% ROI since 20. 16 if both teams missed.
• 20:01
  The playoffs the previous year, which is the case in this spot.
• 20:04
  The week 1 road dog is. 22 and 15 ATS. 60%, 15% ROI.
• 20:10
  So add it all up here, guys. If everyone's playing Detroit,
• 20:13
  why is this line? Staying right where it's at or
• 20:15
  showing liability on the Saints. I got the Saints Plus.
• 20:18
  Seven guys, they're mostly -120 across the market.
• 20:21
  Again, some books are down to 6 1/2.
• 20:23
  But I did notice. That the score.
• 20:25
  Offered me Saints plus. Seven at -110 so I took Saints
• 20:29
  plus 7 -, 110 at the score. Even better.
• 20:32
  When I popped open rhythm. Rhythm has Saints plus 4.7 so a
• 20:37
  nice little. Edge there, so let's go.
• 20:39
  Saints, you can lose. But lose by 6 or.
• 20:41
  Less. Last bet so far for Week 1.
• 20:45
  Let's go to Minnesota, where we got.
• 20:48
  The shirts. Or what is it the skins and the
• 20:50
  blouses? Green Bay Packers little
• 20:52
  Chappelle Angle there, if you remember.
• 20:55
  But Packers at Vikings should be a great.
• 20:57
  Game and a very sharp line move play here now.
• 21:00
  Packers went 97 and. One last year, odds makers
• 21:03
  expect another strong. Performance this season.
• 21:05
  Green Bay. Has a win total of 9 1/2 over.
• 21:08
  Minus. 1:30 at DK Vikings. 9:00 and 8:00 last year.
• 21:12
  Expecting another good year to over. 8 1/2 minus. 120 at DK
• 21:15
  and. What are we seeing across the
• 21:17
  market this game? Open Green Bay.
• 21:20
  This has a very short 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 21:23
  Public thinks this line is way too short.
• 21:25
  Green Bay's the better team. They don't believe in Kyler
• 21:28
  Murray. 66% of spread bets. At DK are going Packers.
• 21:33
  However, Packers aren't up -1 1/2 up to -2 -, 3.
• 21:37
  Nope, we've hopped the fence and gone dog to.
• 21:39
  Fave in favor of Minnesota? So even though Publix hammering.
• 21:43
  Packers This line has gone from. Minnesota Plus. 1 1/2 to -1 1/2.
• 21:48
  So this is the. Classic dog to fave.
• 21:50
  You open as a dog you flip to a favorite reverse line move play.
• 21:54
  This is even a fade the trendy dog at this point.
• 21:56
  Because everyone and their mother is saying again, Packers
• 21:59
  plus the. Points is the obvious play.
• 22:02
  DK Vikings. 34% spread bets, 59% spread dollars.
• 22:07
  Circa 32%. Spread bets 42% spread dollars.
• 22:11
  Now we got to remember. And that's my my daughter Margo.
• 22:14
  She's starting to cry so. We'll see if she'll.
• 22:16
  Go back down or if I'll. Have to pause the pod.
• 22:19
  Because I. Don't want to make you guys
• 22:20
  listen to a crying baby. She's either hungry or who
• 22:23
  knows. What?
• 22:23
  Maybe she wants to chime in on these games.
• 22:26
  But anyway. Money lining, Short favorites.
• 22:28
  I can't tell you how many times in the past I would lay a -. 1
• 22:32
  1/2 they'd win by one. Lay a. 2 1/2 they'd win by.
• 22:35
  One or two and lose, so I'm always a money line short.
• 22:39
  Favorite guy, you guys? Who've been betting with me for
• 22:41
  a while, You know this, how many times it saved?
• 22:43
  Us quite a few. But there's nothing worse than
• 22:45
  laying a 1 1/2 winning by 1 and you said why didn't I pay a few
• 22:49
  more cents to protect myself? So in this case I'm not laying
• 22:52
  -1. And 1/2 with Minnesota.
• 22:54
  I got the Minnesota money line -1.
• 22:57
  That was at Bally Bet. Others are -120 -. 125 at DK 45%
• 23:04
  money line bet 65% money line dollars on Minnesota to win the
• 23:08
  game. Lastly, Rhythm.
• 23:10
  Our friends at Rhythm. Have a green *.
• 23:13
  Recommended play on the Vikings thinking they should be -1.7.
• 23:17
  So there it is, guys. Patriots Plus 3 1/2.
• 23:21
  Texans plus 1 1/2 Saints +7 Vikings money line.
• 23:26
  Let's try to. Get at least two of those, we
• 23:27
  get 3. That'd be even.
• 23:28
  Better so. More NFL talk to come College
• 23:32
  football. We haven't even talked about
• 23:33
  Week 2 yet, but it's all going to be coming over the next few.
• 23:36
  Days. So, as always, we're going to
• 23:38
  keep grinding. In the arena, which is.
• 23:40
  What we love to do. But isn't it just great?
• 23:42
  Having football back in our. Lives.
• 23:43
  I mean, seriously. There's nothing better.
• 23:45
  So anyway guys, that about does it for episode 574 of the All
• 23:48
  Systems Go Sports Betting pod. This is the part of the pod
• 23:51
  where we wrap things up. I always start first by saying.
• 23:54
  Thank you. Thank you for.
• 23:55
  Listening. Thank you for tuning.
• 23:57
  In thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single.
• 24:00
  Day doesn't matter the sport. The time of year it's.
• 24:03
  Great, the football's back. But we grind all year long.
• 24:05
  Making data-driven sharp bets with our head and our heart.
• 24:09
  So if you enjoy the pod you'd like to help me grow this
• 24:11
  podcast, please could you give this?
• 24:13
  Pod a five star review. On Spotify or iTunes, recommend
• 24:16
  the pod to. A friend retweet or like.
• 24:18
  The pod when I put it out. On X each.
• 24:20
  Day, Any or all those? Things will be very much.
• 24:23
  Appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 24:25
  sports betting data. Driven Sharp.
• 24:27
  Contrarian betting focusing on line movement bets.
• 24:30
  Split system matches focusing on what the numbers are telling us,
• 24:33
  what the market is saying. Not what our gut instinct.
• 24:36
  And biases are telling us. And you Maybe you want to learn
• 24:38
  more about data-driven betting. Or you got someone in your life
• 24:42
  who wants to bet football this year and couldn't tell you the
• 24:44
  difference between a teaser, A parlay, or.
• 24:47
  You know a first half bet even though.
• 24:49
  Probably you could guess what a first half.
• 24:50
  Bet is. But if any of that is the case
• 24:53
  and you want to learn more about data-driven betting, then I
• 24:55
  would love for you to support the team.
• 24:58
  It's the best. Time of year to do it.
• 25:00
  Go to Amazon.com. Type in the NFL.
• 25:02
  Sharp betting playbook or the. Everything guide to sports
• 25:04
  betting. Those are the two books that
• 25:06
  I've written a lot of great useful Nuggets here for betting,
• 25:08
  football especially, but. If you want to grab one or both
• 25:11
  of my books, then bring them to the sports book I'll sign them
• 25:14
  for. You I'll buy you a.
• 25:14
  Beer or ginger? Ale will sweat some NFL.
• 25:17
  Together starting tomorrow night, next.
• 25:20
  Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
• 25:22
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 25:24
  They help me win. They're going to help you win.
• 25:26
  Because they're all about that data, which is what we're all
• 25:28
  about. So rhythm for their.
• 25:30
  AI backed models and predictions for game bets.
• 25:32
  And player props. Juice Reel.
• 25:34
  So many great features you can sync up your sports books, get
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  a. Running report card of your.
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  Action Get the CLV meter. Which is always great.
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  You can also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
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  Sharp mush indicators. Arbitrage plays.
• 25:46
  Shop for the. Best line futures and if you are
• 25:48
  feeling generous and you enjoy the pod and you want to get
• 25:51
  every. Best bet that I make.
• 25:52
  All year long as soon as I make them.
• 25:55
  You can get it from the. Juice reel app, all you got to
• 25:57
  do is subscribe to my page, the ASG podcast page.
• 26:02
  It costs you 10 bucks a week. Or 25 bucks a month.
• 26:06
  And as soon as I make a bet it gets posted every win every.
• 26:09
  Loss. You can.
• 26:10
  Tail you can fade. Do whatever you like.
• 26:12
  But I consider signing up for. The best bets?
• 26:15
  On Juice Reel, a tip. Jar.
• 26:17
  This pod is free. It costs you nothing.
• 26:18
  So if you want to support the team, if I've helped you to get
• 26:21
  a little bit. Sharper cash a couple tickets
• 26:23
  over the years please. Sign up to get those.
• 26:25
  Best bets on Juice Reel? You can just click that link in
• 26:28
  the bio description of the pod. Next, do you have a live odds
• 26:32
  page? Well, if you don't have one, you
• 26:33
  need one. You got to be able to track the
• 26:35
  market in real time. You got to be able to be aware
• 26:38
  of of everything that's changing in front of you.
• 26:41
  But first it starts with comparing the opening column to
• 26:43
  the current odds you. Can wake up in the morning,
• 26:45
  track all day. See which?
• 26:47
  Direction the line is moving. You can pull up the line
• 26:49
  history. You can shop.
• 26:50
  For the best number you. Can get live in game wagering
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  odds you can do it. All with.
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  Odds logic. Odds logic is the best.
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  I use it everyday if. You want to give it a shot.
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  All you got to do is use this special link oddslogic dot.
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  Com slash Josh 12. Three, that'll give you a 7 day
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  free trial. And 50% off your.
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  First month of service. So that about does it for
• 27:13
  episode 574 of the All systems go sports betting.
• 27:16
  Podcast powered by Rhythm as. Always guys, two final thoughts
• 27:19
  to send you off with. One, whether I see you at the
• 27:22
  Borgata. In Atlantic City, Twin River, In
• 27:25
  Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan.
• 27:27
  Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston.
• 27:30
  Plainridge park casino MGM Springfield.
• 27:33
  Or turning. Stone where I was just at over
• 27:35
  the weekend, which was a lot of fun.
• 27:37
  Or out in the desert. Where the true grinders get down
• 27:39
  Or Billy. Walter sends his number runners
• 27:41
  where the. Lowest juice possible is.
• 27:42
  Found at the South point or sweat and sharp contrarian.
• 27:45
  Plays jumping in the stadium. Swim pool when he.
• 27:47
  Cashed a big ticket at Circo you're.
• 27:49
  Going to walk up to me hopefully show me some.
• 27:51
  Winning NFL Week 1. Tickets first one.
• 27:54
  'S on me, next one's on. You'll post about the book so
• 27:57
  it's sharp. Contrarian plays all night long.
• 27:59
  So coming off a winning weekend, losing weekend, a hot streak, a
• 28:02
  cold streak, whether everything's going our way or
• 28:05
  nothing's going our way, guys, we love betting.
• 28:07
  We love the daily challenge. We love making sharp bets with
• 28:11
  our. Head and not our heart.
• 28:12
  And we can never get too high or too low when things are going
• 28:14
  well, when we're winning. We can't think we're invincible.
• 28:18
  We also can't think. We got this betting thing.
• 28:19
  Solved. Because if you think it's easy,
• 28:21
  I can tell you you're probably going to go O and three the next
• 28:24
  night. So again, we got it.
• 28:25
  We got to keep grinding. Also, when things aren't going
• 28:28
  well, we're losing. We can't.
• 28:29
  Get down on ourselves. We got to stay the.
• 28:31
  Course think long term always. Grind with a balanced bankroll
• 28:35
  management approach. So as always, guys, we're
• 28:37
  looking. For games that fit our model
• 28:39
  against the public with the house with the pros, flat bet,
• 28:42
  avoid parlays and get a little CLV closing line value.
• 28:46
  If we can do that, we're. Going to be successful sports
• 28:48
  vetters so. Hallelujah football.
• 28:50
  'S back. It all starts tomorrow.
• 28:52
  Hopefully we can have. A winning night tomorrow and a
• 28:55
  good winning year. But as always, guys, I'll be
• 28:58
  right back tomorrow. I'll have a full updated
• 29:00
  breakdown on that Patriots game. But again, plus 3 1/2 and I
• 29:03
  grabbed it now look looking like it's getting down to three,
• 29:06
  especially with a good rhythm edge.
• 29:08
  Either way guys, I'll see you tomorrow for a big NFL.
• 29:11
  Opening night on a. Wednesday kind of crazy, but
• 29:14
  opening night it'll be. Podcast number 575.
• 29:17
  Of the all systems go. Sports betting pot powered by
• 29:21
  rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
• 29:23
  your Tuesday night.