Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / CPI, Markets, And What To Do Now

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CPI, Markets, And What To Do Now · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_02: Every Friday, the partners HPK Profident get together and discuss the latest trends going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some financial planning topics to our blog posts.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_02: So, David, we have you here today.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: All right, it's great to be here.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: How's the week going?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: The week is this is Friday.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm happy.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I dressed in the only red that I had.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: Happy Valentine's Day.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I even have my little red heart necklace.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: Well, good for you.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: You're more uh you're celebrating the holiday more than I am.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Pitter patter my heart.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: I have grandchildren, uh, a lovely wife, and a great family.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: So what can I say?
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Love of the love of the death.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: So the typical uh format we do is we'll cover the economy and the markets and then go into some of our financial blog posts for the week, which tie in a lot of financial planning topics.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: So we're calling this one the hot off the press one.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_02: We're doing it a little earlier than normal to cover the latest CPI data, which is the inflation data.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_02: So what we got was a 0.3 tenths rise in the core, uh, which came in um a little higher than December, but roughly in line.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: And that brings us to uh 2.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: Now, core on the or that was that was the core number, headline on the other hand, came in a tenth lower than expectations to uh two tenths and rises 2.4 percent on the year.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_02: So that sounds good, right?
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, the two tenths reading is a good number.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but the I guess what they did with the year over year number, they counted October as a zero, so that's a little distorted to the downside.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we are seeing some tariff effects.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_02: Um new cars, for example, was a big contributor.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_02: Uh airline fares uh was also up.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: And we did get a report yesterday that um the tariff rates are higher than expected on a year-over-year basis.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: Um, they're, I think, around what I say, 13, 14 percent.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: And then a lot of that, most of that's being absorbed or passed on to the consumer.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: So um other areas of this report, we are seeing a deceleration in the rental component, though the owner's equivalent rent.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if we believe that trend or not.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I I think so.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_02: I it has been very delayed off of the data.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_02: So um, but I mean the bottom line is we have to we have to follow what the Fed is tracking.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_02: We had the last report was a hot PPI.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so that's gonna feed into the core PC deflator, which I think is expected to come out at 3.1 percent uh on this upcoming Friday.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: So that's really what the Fed's gonna be paying attention to.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_02: So this report is a welcome relief, but I think we need to focus on core PC uh more so, which is probably gonna keep the the rates higher for now at least.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we got a lot of other data this week, too.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have anything to add to the the inflation data before I move on to the other QD reports we got?
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um you realize um headline being 2.5 uh year over year is a huge, huge that's huge from being six percent previously.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh so the the trend is our friend right now, and is the the Fed is concentrating their efforts on bringing that down even further, okay.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: But that's certainly below historical averages.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: Well, then we sort of scratch our heads and say, well, why am I paying more for gas now than I was in December and November?
• 4:09
  unknown: Okay.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: And just general items and uh overall, like food, like we see the higher price, the consumer sees the higher prices still.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_02: You know, they didn't come down, it's just a deceleration um over the last few years in the the amount that it's actually going up.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: So prices are still high, and that's really what consumers are seeing.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: So so is it ever, I mean, it was it was a it was an added bonus to see the gas price go down significantly like that, and then now they've creeped back up.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna see anything like that with foods and cars and so forth, or are we gonna see it uh inflation at a two and a half percent average above that?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we don't know.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that's that uncertainty, but uh I I won't be seeing it.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, typically prices don't really come down unless there's a recessionary environment.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: So, and we're we don't see any kind of recession anytime soon.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh pullbacks, uh the jitters, absolutely.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have we had them in 2025, we're gonna have more in 2026.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um look at them as buying opportunities, and we'll talk about that a little bit later on the pond on this cast.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not completely uh checking off my bingo card for no recession in the next 18 months.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: I'll let the I'll let the data take me there.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_02: Right now, I I'm not I'm not really liking the overall data, so we get to 2026.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: I wasn't looking uh uh into 27.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I mean there's some tailwinds.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um tax refund checks are supposed to be big.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_02: That should be although I I did hear some rumors that that's being a little pulled ahead, which into like credit card spending.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_02: I I don't know if I believe that one.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's a little bit of a pessimistic view.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_02: Now, is it pricing to the market?
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_02: Probably, because we know about it already.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I think if we do end up, even if we have a little stickier inflation in the first half of the year, um, I think the trend in the labor market is decelerating, at least, um, if not really stalling out.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so we did get the non-farm payrolls.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it was a delayed report.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_02: We usually get it the first Friday of the month.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: It came out on Wednesday.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: The headline number was uh surprisingly good.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, if you believe it.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: I I'm sounding a little pessimistic today, aren't I?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh well I think the take away from this, Mike, is don't don't believe everything you hear, don't believe everything you hear uh or read.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh have some have a little bit of skepticism, have a little bit of caution.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um hey, and uh we'll be talking about Warren Buffett's uh uh the post on his sage advice.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh uh I'm I'm I'm tipping our hand, uh, but one of the big takeaways from what Warren Buffett, he had 400 billion dollars to on cash in 2025.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: And at the end of 2025, uh before he signed off as a CEO, he still had 400 billion dollars of cash because uh he stuck to his principles.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: If he didn't see something he liked, he wasn't gonna he wasn't gonna buy it.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, and I mean they're such a big company that they really have to wait for an attractive opportunity that is big enough and liquid enough for them to get into.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yeah.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but yeah, anyways, the my skepticism is we've been seeing flattish readings for the last few months in non-farm payrolls.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_02: It came in at 130,000.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the headline number.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_02: Private was even better at like 170.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_02: So why why would we see the the sudden jump?
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um, part of it can be explained to the C, I always say January is a very weird month when it comes to data, um, just because of the seasonal adjustments.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: So when you get less layoffs in January, it tends to push the number up just because they adjust so much for it.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_02: Because the typical trend was you would increase hiring in December for the holiday season and then let go some of those workers in January.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_02: So when that doesn't happen, you see a big upside um headwind or tailwind to the non-farm payrolls.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: Um outside of that, um, we did get the revisions for 2025.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: They came down quite a bit, less than expected, but it still brings us to a monthly average of I think around 15,000.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_02: So pretty much no job growth.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, a lot of that has to do with um the deportations and lower immigration rate, and the birth rate's been low.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but on the flip side, the supply is also coming down.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, the the demand.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: So we saw that in the latest job openings report really decelerating.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_02: Um so we got the unemployment rate that did tick down to 4.3.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh wage growth was relatively strong, but I'm really not expecting these numbers to continue in the coming months.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we're seeing all these hate AI headlines, and if anything, it's gonna put more pressure on the labor market.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_02: Um, when it comes to the consumer, retail sales are pretty weak, came in flat for the month.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, the control control group that feeds into GDP, which I think we will get fourth quarter GDP preliminary next week.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that was down a tenth of a percent.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_02: So we're seeing some pullback in the consumer.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so we'll just continue to monitor it.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um, if people can spend, they will spend.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_02: But it's definitely, I mean, everyone talks about it on the in the markets.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_02: We have a K-shaped economy where the wealthy people holding um both housing and uh the stocks, stock market are doing very well, while the lower income cohorts kind of struggling.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and that's kind of the same with the economy as a whole.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_02: We're seeing very few industries really accelerating, and then um we have some weakness underlying the surface.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's gonna be the trend continuing throughout the year.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, the AI infrastructure should be a beneficiary.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, tech stocks are having really good earnings, and it's been a good earnings season overall, but um, why tech stocks are getting punished?
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: Software is a big drag, um, just because of the the risk that some of those products are gonna become obsolete, and then just the mega cap is spending so much money.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: I think the mag 7 is spending the amount of many countries making a year.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: They're they're spending on research and AI.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, with more than the the gross domestic product of a number of countries.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: You're right, Mike.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, so that was pretty much the data for the week.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_02: Uh looking at the SP 500, um, we're kind of closing out of this ascending triangle now.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: So it could break either way.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_02: Yesterday we started out on the upper end of that channels, which is getting pretty narrow.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we did break through, but we need confirmation of that.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, right now we're essentially trading flat on the day as we uh record this at 945.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_02: And then we have this pattern here, uh, which is the short-term, uh, I guess now triple top.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, if we break that, our price target's gonna be around this 65.50.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the ascending triangle does point to further downside than that, but um, we really need to break those levels definitively to uh make make a judgment call there.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: Um, on the plus side, the 10-year treasury is really uh the yield has really come down.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: So uh yield goes down, bond price goes up.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_02: So that's good.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but yeah, the weakness has really been in the tech sector this year.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: But good year for a diversified portfolio.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, bonds are doing decent, uh, international stocks, emerging markets doing very well, small caps are doing well, values doing well, growth, not so much.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: Um commodities are also doing well, especially the precious metals.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: We did have that little freak out a couple Fridays ago where we saw big pullbacks in that arena.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_02: But in a general rule, if the the dollar keeps declining, and really if we break below this 96 level here, um it's gonna point to further downside in the dollar, which is good for those precious metals.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: So if we do break that level, we might look to add a little exposure in that.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: We got to find a vehicle that doesn't uh mess people's taxes up.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: But um let's see.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you see here international is doing well on a relative basis for SP.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um so yeah, we're just uh we're we're waiting to see which way we break out here.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, that's why we have you, Mike.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: Uh anything you want to add on the markets or should we get into the let's get into the the let's get into the the blog posts.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_02: All right, so all of our social posts and blog posts go out to our Facebook page and LinkedIn page.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um the blog posts don't the blog posts go out on our website, but the social posts don't.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_02: So if you want to see all the information, go to Facebook or our LinkedIn.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_02: Friday Live, we're really trying to push the YouTube channel.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_02: So watch the videos on YouTube and uh make sure you like and share them with someone who might be interested in.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we're we're about 750 subscribers, so thanks for everyone that's been watching.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, help us push to a thousand by next Friday.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_02: That's my goal.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Good.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we'll be happy to talk to more and more people.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: We have uh we have a great deal of depth of of knowledge and experience in our group.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh nice partners.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I've been around for 35 plus years.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Mike, holy cow, you're their newcomer, but you've got 15 plus years in the industry.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh close.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and you have the charter financial analyst, which is uh the pedigree for money management.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Brian's got the uh certified financial planner, which is the highest pedigree for financial planning.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: And he's also yeah, and then and he's also uh an expert in social security as well as other, and he's he's a good speaker, he's he's better speaker than the two of us combined, probably.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Me, I'm just a storyteller uh and a compliance monkey.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that was my uh my background being a supervisor for 25 plus years.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I am not sad to be giving that up because boy, I think it added 10 years to my life.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's quite a good team.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we would love to have you join us.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so we do a thematic theme.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: Um, Monday's market Monday.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_02: I do a look ahead post, um, but we won't go into that since I just covered the markets.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_02: Tuesday, Brian's been doing a tax campaign.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so this one's talking about Roth conversions uh before the age of 59 and a half.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_02: Basically, you uh convert a portion of your IRA.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_02: You got to stay within the the contribution limit for the Roth.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but it's a taxable event, you pay taxes on it.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_02: In return, it's into a Roth vehicle, which taxes then will be both deferred and tax free if uh if you wait the appropriate amount of time.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_02: Now it does go by the Roth regulation, so that contribution has to be in there for five years um before withdrawal, otherwise, it's subject to the 10% tax penalty.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: So and it has to be over 59.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, after 59 half.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a two-part regulation there.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: One, you have to have that, like Mike said, you have to have the um uh the Roth there for at least five years.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: Doesn't matter if you convert it when you're 70, uh, which you can, um, but you have to wait till you're 75 to take money out of it.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um, because that five-year rule, uh, plus 59 being over 59 and a half.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's a little tricky.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: Make sure you understand there's the two components of the regulation on the on the Roth.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and make sure you I would check with your CPA or whoever does your taxes.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: It might be a good year to do that, just because um if if you are benefiting from the higher state and local cap state and local tax deductions, it could uh you know kind of keep you in a similar or even lower tax bracket, even while doing a Roth conversion and adding to the tax basis.
• 17:45
  unknown: Okay.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: Never a bad idea to take care of your tax liabilities when you were able to.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um never a bad idea.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_02: So that was our Tuesday post, Wednesday post.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_02: You want to talk about this a little bit?
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: About the old Oracle of uh Omaha.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I I mentioned it a little bit earlier, okay, and I won't repeat some of that, but obviously, Mr.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: Buffett has a whole lot more assets than we would ever dream of.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: And he's been a sag, a sage businessman for uh six generations, I mean six uh decades or longer.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and his try true strategies are very beneficial to pay attention to.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and one of them is highlighted here.
• 18:37
  unknown: Uh-huh.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: If you don't have a purpose to uh if if if you can't find something to invest in, just sit on the cash until you find something.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh doing nothing is not necessarily a bad thing.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh now realize it's a temporary situation.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and some of us don't have that luxury where we have kids that go to college, we have families that need uh assistance, we have um house purchases, mortgages, where we don't have the luxury where we do have to access some of our investments and so forth.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: So you so you have to make adjustments on that.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but as investing goes, if you have an opportunity uh to see something that you like that you understand, go in it.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Make make the purchase.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh if you if you don't, just do nothing.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: Sit on the cash.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and it's good to know.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: You probably have heard us before that before 2008 with the the the great recession, um cash was never an asset class.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: Now it is.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you can uh I don't know what the current rate on money market is right now, but it's it's probably 3.4 still.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: I I think, yeah, uh approaching just a little shy of four percent.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_02: I think with that said, that's just about even with inflation.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_02: So we're not certainly advocating you go 100% in cash and wait for an opportunity.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_02: Um, historically that doesn't play out because the stock market goes up in most years.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and that's that's the same thing with new money.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, the the data shows you you're better off if you have a long-term horizon, just getting it, invest it.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we like to take our time, especially when we're at all-time market highs, because eventually we are gonna get a pullback.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_02: It happens every year.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_02: The average drawdown is about 14%.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_02: You have a bear market, meaning 20% decline every three to five years.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_02: So sometimes it does pay to be patient.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_02: And one of my favorite quotes is by Warren Buffett, and that is be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: Again, sage advice.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and understand that this last year, when he sat on$400 billion of cash, he didn't sell any of his other assets.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: He sat on those as well, okay.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, because of the strategy.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like okay, um, he didn't panic.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we don't there's no need to panic, uh, because just as Mike said, um the the law averages work to our favor.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, going to our Thursday post, which is think ahead Thursday.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, I like this one.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh have you ever noticed a time when policy um something coming in the news has had such an impact upon the market?
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: And this is where I appreciate Mike so much and the Fed.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think, Mike?
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: I used you in the in the Fed Reserve.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: The same sentence.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: Where they look at the business dynamics, those notes, not necessarily the extraneous news on the outside.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: And this chart that you can see here is like uh uh tariffs were always a hot number the first quarter of 2025, and by the end of the year, there was very little about it.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um the market was down like 20 in April uh last year, and it recovered very well.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and I mean that wasn't only tariffs, but another perfect example of that is the deep seek fear, how China can come out and do this AI thing for a lot cheaper and put our company, our tech companies pretty much spend all this money for nothing.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_02: And who's talked about that lately?
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_02: No one.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and the the thought that some other currency uh or that the dollar might be replaced as the world's currency not happening uh anytime in the near future.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: There is no other currency, there's no other option.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um and uh there's no other currency that could handle the ups and downs of swings as much as the dollar.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so we don't I I do think that more of countries reserve currency, reserve money has been going into like things like gold in replacement of treasuries.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but yeah, from a country basis, I think uh I think we're safe from being replaced for now.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, yeah.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I have a little story.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um my granddaughter, Gabby, uh she's she they moved up to Cincinnati, so she's been ex she's been enjoying the snow, uh, probably more so than some of our other people.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, but she enjoyed the snow, and she was out there playing with her with her daddy, my son.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, well, she saw this nice icicle, picked it up and thought, oh, this would be fun.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: And she threw it like a spear and hit my son in the lip.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: Why after the stitches, you know, oh okay, well, that's that's a little hard, okay.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: But after the stitches, you see, um you expect a four-year-old to be impulsive.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we don't, it's probably not as good an idea for a 30, 40-year-old to be impulsive.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: So don't panic.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, let the things go.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and if you see a nice icicle, admire the beauty and God's God's creation, but probably not a good idea to pick it off and throw it like a like a spear.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and as we as we go to uh through the weekend, I want to let you know that um President's Day is coming on Monday.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh most government offices are closed.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: Our office will be closed because the market is closed.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh enjoy the weekend.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: I hope you have plans for your for your loved ones, um, being Valentine's Day.
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um take the time to take note of how precious life is.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: If you need a breather, always remember uh our good old my good old father-in-law, Ron Sukelli, always gives you permission to breathe.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, because the alternative is a killer.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: And be president's day uh coming up also.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh take it would not be a bad uh uh task.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: It would it would be a very advantageous thing to learn a little bit about your presidents of the United States, learn a little bit about this this wonderful republic uh that's 250 years old.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: There's some tremendous stories of courage, perseverance, uh, obstinence.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh okay, I'll get that.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh uh the world uh has changed a lot in the last 250 years.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: The United States has changed a lot in the last 250 years.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's beneficial to see uh and get and receive a person perspective.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, the US is not gonna go away in the next year or two years, okay.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um presidents come, presidents go, and thank God uh they're four-year terms, and uh we pretty much have a uh uh a law clear.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: You can't serve more than two terms.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm good with that.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm good with that.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_02: Mike, do you have anything to add?
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_02: Sometimes that's too long.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: Uh well uh uh but other times it's not long enough, in my opinion.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh oh Mike, Mike told me that there's only been two countries in the world where their stock market has gone down to zero.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the U.S., the stock market's never gone down to zero.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think uh uh you United Kingdom.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um everything else.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there's been multiple countries that have gone bankrupt.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh not the U.S.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: or the United Kingdom.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we're gonna wrap up Friday live for the week on a positive note.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, enjoy your weekend.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_02: All right, everyone have a good weekend.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_02: Before we go, as always, we're gonna flip on disclosures and we'll see you next Friday and go over the Fed's preferred inflation measure, among some other data points, and see which way this market breaks out.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_02: So everyone have a good weekend.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
• 28:56
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• 28:58
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• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David and HBK Provident Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
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• 29:18
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• 29:22
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