Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future

Future Fictions Lab : Reverse-Engineering Tomorrow · Oct 22, 2026 · 31m

This guide explores scenario planning as a vital tool for navigating an unpredictable future. By moving beyond simple mathematical extrapolation, organizations can visualize diverse outcomes based on driving forces like technology, demographics, and shifting social values. The text uses case studies—ranging from the collapse of Swissair to the "black swan" of the 2011 tsunami—to illustrate how failing to anticipate disruptive change can be fatal. Conversely, it provides a step-by-step framework for building scenario matrices and "day-in-the-life" vignettes to test strategy. Ultimately, the…