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Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
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  Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction
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  Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around
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  Speaker 2: the world.
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  Speaker 3: In the next twenty minutes. On this program, we need
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  Speaker 3: to discuss two things. The future of Chairman Paw One
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  Speaker 3: the easing bias at the Federal Reserve. Two on the
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  Speaker 3: future of Chairman pow staying one as a governor of
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  Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve. He was asked why this is what
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  Speaker 3: he had to say.
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  Speaker 2: My concern is really about the series of legal attacks
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  Speaker 2: on the FED. These attacks are battering the institution and
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  Speaker 2: putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public,
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  Speaker 2: which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking
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  Speaker 2: into consideration political factors.
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  Speaker 3: The Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on independence. I think
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  Speaker 3: FED independence is at risk. So what about the easing
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  Speaker 3: buss Let's talk about monetary policy. A question coming into
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  Speaker 3: this decision is whether this reserve would move to a
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  Speaker 3: more symmetrical reaction function. That's the juket. This is a
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  Speaker 3: plane speak. Isn't just as likely they'll hike as they'll cut.
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  Speaker 3: They didn't do it this time around, but there was
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  Speaker 3: some descent. This vote was eight to four. Four descents
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  Speaker 3: haven't seen that since the nineteen nineties. Of those four
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  Speaker 3: to three wanted to get rid of that easing bus.
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  Speaker 3: This is what the chairman had to say on that issue.
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  Speaker 2: You know a number of people on the committee who
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  Speaker 2: either could support that language change, changing to a more
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  Speaker 2: neutral stance so that a hike is as likely as
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  Speaker 2: a cut. That number has increased over the inter meeting period,
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  Speaker 2: and it's easy to see why we had the discussion.
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  Speaker 2: The majority are still on the page of not feeling
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  Speaker 2: the need to move to that level, and that's where
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  Speaker 2: I am.
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  Speaker 4: I get it though.
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  Speaker 2: You know at a certain point you would move, and
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  Speaker 2: that that conceivingly could come as soon as the next meeting.
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  Speaker 3: They're getting closer, but they're not there yet. So much
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  Speaker 3: to learn apparently over the next thirty to sixty days.
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  Speaker 5: I thought that was the most market moving aspect of
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  Speaker 5: the news conference, the idea that it wasn't just the
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  Speaker 5: three dissenters who are to shift to a more neutral
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  Speaker 5: kind of positioning symmetric kind of positioning, but that it
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  Speaker 5: was a bigger group that just didn't feel like there
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  Speaker 5: was a need to move right now, because ultimately, why
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  Speaker 5: move now, and so much can change. Nonetheless, this goes
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  Speaker 5: on for as long as people are might be thinking
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  Speaker 5: based on the oil prices in the future. This is
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  Speaker 5: something that clearly will come back on the table.
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  Speaker 6: I like the way on the Bloomberg Professional Service we
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  Speaker 6: have a way to see the president's tweets quickly. I
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  Speaker 6: am waiting to see a president and tweet wheeler. Do
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  Speaker 6: we get it by the time the clock turns around?
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  Speaker 6: Or do we get it by metas earnings here in
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  Speaker 6: X number of mini.
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  Speaker 3: Things have softened somewhat around this institution just a little bit.
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  Speaker 3: We heard from the Treasury Secretary scope person who said
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  Speaker 3: it's understandable if this fed remains on hold for some time.
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  Speaker 3: But the last thing we had from the President was
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  Speaker 3: something like this, if the chairman doesn't leave on time,
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  Speaker 3: I'll fire it now.
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  Speaker 4: What is on time actually mean?
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  Speaker 3: Because he can stay on as the Board of governors,
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  Speaker 3: he can stay on that board until twenty twenty eight.
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  Speaker 4: Is that on time? Or is the president looking for
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  Speaker 4: something else?
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  Speaker 5: Are we entering a new standoff? We're dealing with a
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  Speaker 5: standoff of the Middle East. We were dealing with the
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  Speaker 5: staring contest between Tom Tillis and Donald Trump, and now
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  Speaker 5: might be dealing with President Trump versus j Powell the governor,
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  Speaker 5: to see who blinks first, who's going to drop the
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  Speaker 5: legal cases, who's going to step away? And this could
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  Speaker 5: potentially get pretty tense, especially if the bar is that
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  Speaker 5: much higher. Right now for FEED chair Jay Powell.
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  Speaker 3: My mccame is in that news conference. He'll join us
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  Speaker 3: in just a moment. I want to start with Jimpanco
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  Speaker 3: of Pianco Research. Jim, Welcome to the program, buddy. I
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  Speaker 3: think FED independence is at risk. The chairman's words, I'll
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  Speaker 3: continue to serve as a governor for a period of time.
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  Speaker 3: Recent events have left me no choice but to stay.
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  Speaker 1: Your reaction, please, I think it's one of the most
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  Speaker 1: disappointing things that he's done during his chairmanship. That is
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  Speaker 1: a political decision. The decision was made to push the
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  Speaker 1: investigation of the building to the Inspector General. The Inspector
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  Speaker 1: General finds some malfeasans or wrongdoing with the building, they'll
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  Speaker 1: have a criminal referral. That is appropriate. He seems to
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  Speaker 1: be saying that has billions of dollars in building construction
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  Speaker 1: and no one's allowed to ask any questions about it,
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  Speaker 1: and he's going to stand in the doorway and disrupt
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  Speaker 1: the FED as long as they're going to look into
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  Speaker 1: this building. I think that that is a big, big disappointment.
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  Speaker 1: I would have expected more from him, to be very honest,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm a guy that liked him. I'm a guy
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  Speaker 1: that would have reappointed him, and I think this is
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  Speaker 1: a big disappointment that I've seen from him.
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  Speaker 5: Jim, do you think that it has longer term ramifications
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  Speaker 5: for the institution based in the fact that he is
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  Speaker 5: saying he does think that this is an independent institution,
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  Speaker 5: a committee, but does want to avoid some of the
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  Speaker 5: attacks that he says are battering the institution.
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  Speaker 1: Marin or Eccles is the only other FED chairman that
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  Speaker 1: stayed on in the late nineteen forties, and his memoirs
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  Speaker 1: say that he stayed on because he saw, with Bretton
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  Speaker 1: Woods and with the World Bank and the IMF in
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  Speaker 1: the post World War two period, change was coming and
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  Speaker 1: he wanted to marshal the world through those changes. It
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  Speaker 1: seems like what Chairman Paul is saying is we're eighty
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  Speaker 1: years later and changes coming. I want to stand in
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  Speaker 1: the doorway and prevent those changes. He said he wants
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  Speaker 1: to see a more traditional move back to the FED.
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  Speaker 1: He wants to see the FED institution remain the way
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  Speaker 1: it is and not evolve. Now, as far as independence goes,
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  Speaker 1: I think we've solved the independence pro problem with the
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  Speaker 1: vote today eight four. We have twelve independent voters. The
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  Speaker 1: Chairman is one of those voters. That is how you're
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  Speaker 1: going to get a truly independent FED. The Chairman cannot
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  Speaker 1: dictate the policy like he has for the last forty years.
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  Speaker 1: He needs six other people to agree with him in
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  Speaker 1: order to get that policy across. What's going to happen
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  Speaker 1: if we continue to have these descents. I'll remind you
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  Speaker 1: last year the Bank of England had a four to
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  Speaker 1: four to one vote. If we get to a six
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  Speaker 1: to six vote with this FED we're already at eight four.
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  Speaker 1: That gives Chairman Powell all the power to decide what
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  Speaker 1: the policy's going to be. Even though he said he's
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  Speaker 1: not going to give any speeches and he's going to
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  Speaker 1: remain in the background, or is he saying that he
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  Speaker 1: will just do whatever to Chairman wash tells him to
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  Speaker 1: do and that's the way he's going to vote and
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  Speaker 1: he's not going to vote independently, So it's a big
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  Speaker 1: problem that he needs to define and try to explain,
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  Speaker 1: and he didn't did this press conference, Jim.
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  Speaker 6: I look at this simplistically. I got oil at one
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  Speaker 6: nineteen sixty one in this announcement that I saw on
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  Speaker 6: the Bloomberg that we're leaving an aircraft carrier from the
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  Speaker 6: Middle East, the gerald Ford, with five four hundred sailors.
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  Speaker 6: I believe it as is coming home exhausted. Is Jerome Powell,
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  Speaker 6: simplistically in the same way, just staying to block a
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  Speaker 6: Trump appoint period.
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  Speaker 1: I hope he's not, you know, and I hope that
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  Speaker 1: you know he's he's trying to be fair minded in
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  Speaker 1: his decision, and I disagree with the decision, and we
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  Speaker 1: can have disagreements in it, and that is it being
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  Speaker 1: as political as that that he doesn't want Trump to
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  Speaker 1: have another appointee. And by the way, we'll get the
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  Speaker 1: Leasa Cook decision by June when the court adjourns, and
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  Speaker 1: if they do allow him to fire Lisa Cook for cause,
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  Speaker 1: I would assume probably the same day he'll fire j
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  Speaker 1: Paul and we'll have to and then he'll get two
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  Speaker 1: votes or he'll get two open seats to be able
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  Speaker 1: to replace Now. Of course the court could rule otherwise,
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  Speaker 1: but that's coming as well too. But I hope it's
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  Speaker 1: not that. I hope that it is more that he
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  Speaker 1: has a view about the institution not changing in a
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  Speaker 1: world where I think we're changing and it needs to evolve,
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  Speaker 1: and he's preventing that.
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  Speaker 4: Jim, stay close. I've got Miama Cay standing by it.
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  Speaker 3: Just hopped out of the news conference and one of
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  Speaker 3: his reactions to one of this as well, Mike here
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  Speaker 3: in the room. Have you got a different perspective on things?
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  Speaker 7: Yes, I think I do. I was listening to what
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  Speaker 7: Jim said. I don't think Jay Paul is staying because
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  Speaker 7: he's trying to stand in the way of progress at
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  Speaker 7: the FED. I think Jay Powell is staying because he
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  Speaker 7: doesn't trust the Department of Justice. He noted at the
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  Speaker 7: top that the Justice Department had said that they were
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  Speaker 7: dropping the probe, but he referenced back to Janine Piro's
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  Speaker 7: comment about we could file another criminal complaint and he
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  Speaker 7: doesn't know, oh what the Justice Department will do, whether
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  Speaker 7: or not there would be validity in what the Justice
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  Speaker 7: Department might do, So he wants to make sure that
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  Speaker 7: that is the case, and he will at least probably
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  Speaker 7: stay through the Inspector General's report. It is also possible
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  Speaker 7: he would stay on beyond that in order, as you did,
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  Speaker 7: mention that in order to deny the President the possibility
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  Speaker 7: of another seat if he thinks what the President wants
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  Speaker 7: to do is take political control of the FED.
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  Speaker 3: Said Jim, I want to give you a chance to
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  Speaker 3: respond to that. If anything, the Chairman's been consistent, he
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  Speaker 3: said a bah. He said this needs to be rapped
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  Speaker 3: up with transparency and finality, and based on the comments
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  Speaker 3: we've had, according to the Chairman, he thinks the full
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  Speaker 3: and short of that bound.
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  Speaker 1: Jim, Yeah, I think he thinks that. Senator Tillis does
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  Speaker 1: not think that. That's why he voted today to advance
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  Speaker 1: his nomination. And I agree with Mike that he does
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  Speaker 1: not trust the Justice Department. But it's not his call.
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  Speaker 1: It's the Justice Department that the American public elected through
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  Speaker 1: the election of Donald Trump. And if he doesn't like it,
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  Speaker 1: he's going to then stay as a disruptive force to
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  Speaker 1: the FED to prevent them from making any kind of
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  Speaker 1: changes or referrals or even looking in Remember this is
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  Speaker 1: all about the building cost and why it's been taken
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  Speaker 1: several years and his run so expensive, and it seems
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  Speaker 1: like he's saying we're not allowed to ask.
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  Speaker 3: I've got another disruptive force to talk about, Jim a
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  Speaker 3: labor to jump in one twenty on Brent just breached
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  Speaker 3: that level moments ago, high on the session by eight percent.
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  Speaker 3: Let's just take a step back. The chairman's future is
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  Speaker 3: one part of the discussion. These market moves are something else.
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  Speaker 3: At the moment, Brent at one twenty just sit on
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  Speaker 3: that yields high at the front end of the curve,
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  Speaker 3: retesting the highs of the last two months or so,
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  Speaker 3: and equities bring up the equity screen. At the moment,
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  Speaker 3: equity is this afternoon, in the face of these moves
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  Speaker 3: and fixed income, these moves in commodities doing almost nothing.
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  Speaker 3: Bramo hardly moved, not even phased ahead of these earnings
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  Speaker 3: later this so afternoon.
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  Speaker 5: And this was what the Fed was talking about. Right,
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  Speaker 5: we have the NASDAK that actually up four tens ofiven
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  Speaker 5: percent ahead of those earnings. As we look to the
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  Speaker 5: strength that fetcher J. Powell was talking about it as
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  Speaker 5: last press conference. But this is where it becomes tricky.
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  Speaker 5: At what point do those higher oil prices that might
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  Speaker 5: be leaving big tech unphased become an inflationary pressure that
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  Speaker 5: can be withstand what we could be withstood simply because
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  Speaker 5: there is enough momentum in this economy.
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  Speaker 4: Jim, let's get to the price section.
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  Speaker 3: Not so interested in should should an interested in market consequences.
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  Speaker 3: Here's a Federal Reserve debates in dropping its easy bass
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  Speaker 3: pressure building the commodity market rice repricing yields higher. What
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  Speaker 3: are the consequences, Jim, I think.
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  Speaker 1: The consequences are huge because if you look at the
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  Speaker 1: way that oil is trading. You're right that the June
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  Speaker 1: contract went over one twenty a few minutes ago, and
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  Speaker 1: that's the highest it's been since June of twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: What about the long term? Okay, let's look at the
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  Speaker 1: December contract. The December contract is making new all time
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  Speaker 1: highs too, and it's saying to us, at least if
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  Speaker 1: you want to take it at phase value, that the
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  Speaker 1: price of oil is going to stay elevated at least
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  Speaker 1: through the end of the year. As Chairman Paul said,
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  Speaker 1: we already have he said, three and a half percent
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  Speaker 1: on PCE inflation. That's their measure, and if it's all
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  Speaker 1: driven by energy, it's going to stay there right now,
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  Speaker 1: and it's going to be problematic for the Fed to
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  Speaker 1: even talk about an easing with that level of inflation.
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  Speaker 1: It's not going to disappear and go away unless there's
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  Speaker 1: some resolution in the war. And the problem is the
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  Speaker 1: market doesn't see the resolution in the war. That's why
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  Speaker 1: both the June all the way to the December contract
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  Speaker 1: continues to move higher.
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  Speaker 3: Ay, Jim, going to see you. I appreciate your opinion,
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  Speaker 3: Jim of Biancore Research. Mike always go to see you, buddy.
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  Speaker 3: Great work in the news conference. Mike mckaye down in Washington,
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  Speaker 3: d C. If you're just joining us, welcome to the program.
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  Speaker 3: We have set out for quiet an afternoon now in
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  Speaker 3: the next sixty minutes so sun, we should hear from
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  Speaker 3: four of the biggest companies on the planet, Microsoft, METSA Alphabet, Amazon.
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  Speaker 3: Before we get there, some big market moves to talk
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  Speaker 3: about eight consecutive days of high crude prices Brent crude
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  Speaker 3: through one twenty. Just briefly, we've taken out the heighs
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  Speaker 3: of the year closing basis. If we close at these
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  Speaker 3: levels one nineteen ninety five. Look at that WCI comfortably
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  Speaker 3: into triple digits. This move in the bond market off
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  Speaker 3: the back of it yields high at the front end
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  Speaker 3: of the curve, up by ten basis points. Not just
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  Speaker 3: about oil, also about this feeder reserve. If you missed it,
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  Speaker 3: here's a summary an eight to four vote. Haven't seen
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  Speaker 3: that level of descent since nineteen ninety two. Of that four,
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  Speaker 3: three hawkish descents a conversation about dropping the easing bias.
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  Speaker 3: They haven't got enough people on site just to do
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  Speaker 3: that just yet, but we're losing support for that easing
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  Speaker 3: bias at this feeder reserve.
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  Speaker 5: And potentially if this conflict in the Middle East doesn't
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  Speaker 5: get resolved, then all of a sudden, you will have
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  Speaker 5: a consensus to move to asymmetric risk. We have now
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  Speaker 5: priced out a rate cut for twenty twenty six and
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  Speaker 5: the Fed Fund's futures. At what point do we start
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  Speaker 5: repricing in hikes, because ultimately, this is an economy that
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  Speaker 5: can would stand oil prices at this level, rates at
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  Speaker 5: this level, and that was the ward that we heard
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  Speaker 5: from the Federal Reserve.
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  Speaker 6: Repricing here is hard because it's a war. Somebody mentioned
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  Speaker 6: there it's a war. We forget we're in a war.
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  Speaker 6: And within that, I don't know what the unknown known
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  Speaker 6: is tomorrow or out to June seventeenth. Nobody knows. We're
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  Speaker 6: just going to take in the data and take in
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  Speaker 6: the war news. And what I'm waiting for John is
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  Speaker 6: to take in the next marginal.
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  Speaker 3: President Trump tweet the S and P five hundred down
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  Speaker 3: by a tenth of one percent. If you looked at that,
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  Speaker 3: it's a snoozy afternoon and nothing happened at this Federo's
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  Speaker 3: Eerve meeting. That's just not the case. Jeffrey Rosenberg of
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  Speaker 3: Black Rock joined us now for more. Jeff, what's the
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  Speaker 3: bill case in the face of what's brewing elsewhere?
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  Speaker 8: Well, you know, you highlighted it well between trying to
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  Speaker 8: disconnect what's going on between oil prices and the committee
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  Speaker 8: meeting today and what we heard, and you know, I
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  Speaker 8: want to highlight, you know, the thing that I found
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  Speaker 8: most interesting about Powell's comments were explaining the I think
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  Speaker 8: the second main point and takeaway at the meeting, which
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  Speaker 8: is this this theme of a divided committee that comes
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  Speaker 8: out of the eight to four vote, and he framed
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  Speaker 8: it as a natural consequence of the conflict in the
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  Speaker 8: FEDS objectives between growth and inflation, which is the one
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  Speaker 8: hundred and twenty oil you know? Is that is that you
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  Speaker 8: know point? And he got asked the question about pass
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  Speaker 8: through and this is I think what the markets are
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  Speaker 8: really struggling with is he basically made the point it's
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  Speaker 8: all about the time of which the Straits of Hormuz
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  Speaker 8: remains closed, and no one knows what that will look like.
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  Speaker 8: So Jim just talked about the forward curve. Uh, you know,
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  Speaker 8: December contract making its new highs, but it's it's significantly
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  Speaker 8: lower than the front end of the curve. So there's
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  Speaker 8: an expectation here that at some point that's opening up.
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  Speaker 8: We don't know what that is, and I think Divided
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  Speaker 8: Committee is likely to be the continuation because of this
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  Speaker 8: point that Powell highlighted that when you're faced with the
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  Speaker 8: conflict of the dual objectives, that people are going to
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  Speaker 8: see that in different ways. Some are going to be
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  Speaker 8: arguing for the growth impact, some are going to be
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  Speaker 8: arguing for the inflation impact, and that might be the
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  Speaker 8: more expected outcome as opposed to what we've seen and
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  Speaker 8: the historical comparisons of this being you know, very unusual,
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  Speaker 8: will maybe get used to that being a little bit
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  Speaker 8: more usual.
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  Speaker 5: Jeff, it seems like the conflict of the Middle East
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  Speaker 5: isn't necessarily that close to wrapping up. Maybe it is,
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  Speaker 5: and we just all are getting mixed signals. Do you
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  Speaker 5: think this market needs to price in a greater chance
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  Speaker 5: of a rate hike as the next move by the
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  Speaker 5: Federal Reserve?
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  Speaker 8: Well, it's already done that. And to this discussion about
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  Speaker 8: the easing bias and the language, you know, the market
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  Speaker 8: already took the easing bias out. It did that at
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  Speaker 8: the onset of the oil price impact from the Iran war.
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  Speaker 8: So I don't think that as a catalyst for sort
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  Speaker 8: of the next move that's made. Mostly, you know, the
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  Speaker 8: Fed is a deliberate a body getting the right number
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  Speaker 8: of people willing. You heard Powell talk about that they're
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  Speaker 8: slow to move that bias. The market is not, and
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  Speaker 8: it's moved the bias to easing out of the market pricing.
• 15:49
  Speaker 8: So I don't think that's really the market event. The
• 15:51
  Speaker 8: market event is really the uncertain unknown question that he
• 15:55
  Speaker 8: was asked, what's the pass through from headline inflation to
• 15:59
  Speaker 8: core inflation? You heard Worsh talk about it in terms
• 16:03
  Speaker 8: of trimmed mean and not looking at core PCE as
• 16:06
  Speaker 8: a measure. That's a very particular way of looking at
• 16:10
  Speaker 8: the potential for pass through. Will he get and move
• 16:13
  Speaker 8: the rest of the committee onto that view. If so,
• 16:17
  Speaker 8: that's a very dubvish implication, and you bring the bias
• 16:20
  Speaker 8: back in. But as Powell highlighted, we really just don't know.
• 16:24
  Speaker 8: So you're going to have to see whether or not
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: those pass through of headline into core shows up, whether
• 16:29
  Speaker 8: Worsh is more dubbish interpretation shows up, and whether you
• 16:33
  Speaker 8: can push the committee towards his direction, and that will
• 16:37
  Speaker 8: bring the bias back into market pricing. But right now
• 16:39
  Speaker 8: we're pricing.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Jeff, I.
• 16:41
  Speaker 6: Got eight questions in time for one, and it's just
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: simple for our listeners interviewers across this nation and worldwide.
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: What is the best tool to use in the bond
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: market to study the potential dynamics? Don't you know the
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: benchmark tenure or that, or is there a unique Rosenberg spread?
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: It makes sense. What is the efficacious way to study
• 17:03
  Speaker 6: the pulse is seen in fixed income?
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: Yeah? You know, Tom, the kind of historical rule of
• 17:11
  Speaker 8: thomb is if you want to keep it simple, it's
• 17:13
  Speaker 8: about the five year maturity point on the treasury curve.
• 17:18
  Speaker 8: That's kind of impacts the best estimations of where you're
• 17:22
  Speaker 8: looking for current and forward looking FED expectations, and that
• 17:26
  Speaker 8: kind of is your benchmark for looking at you can
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: look a little bit shorter. Two year is going to
• 17:30
  Speaker 8: be the more near term expectations. I think that's a
• 17:33
  Speaker 8: really good metric. And then on the inflation side, remember inflation.
• 17:38
  Speaker 8: You know, headline inflation is going to impact shorter maturities.
• 17:42
  Speaker 8: You want to look a little bit further out, you
• 17:45
  Speaker 8: can look at the slope of the curve five year,
• 17:47
  Speaker 8: five year forward measures on break even inflation is better
• 17:50
  Speaker 8: when looking at longer term market expectations of the impact
• 17:55
  Speaker 8: on inflation, and so far, you know that's been relatively benign,
• 17:59
  Speaker 8: and so that's kind of supporting you know, Powells comments
• 18:02
  Speaker 8: in terms of market longer term expectations not being unduly impacted.
• 18:07
  Speaker 8: If you started to see that change, that's going to
• 18:09
  Speaker 8: be a major signal for FED policy pivoting more towards
• 18:14
  Speaker 8: the inflation concern. If you start to see that show
• 18:17
  Speaker 8: up in that metri Jeff.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Last question from US last time we had to yo
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: it at these levels close to them was the end
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: of March, and every person we spoke to and fixed
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: income on Wall Street had a very favorable interpretation of
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: these moves. They said we were creating value and they
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: wanted to buy it. Jeff, do you think we're creating
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: value this afternoon and do you want to buy.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Well?
• 18:38
  Speaker 8: I think the move in the front end is creating
• 18:41
  Speaker 8: some value. You know, you're seeing a big curve flattening again.
• 18:46
  Speaker 8: A lot of it is conditional on that pass through
• 18:48
  Speaker 8: of inflation, but stepping out of the curve into the
• 18:52
  Speaker 8: front end, we're having Warsh come in. He's already signaled
• 18:55
  Speaker 8: that he wants to look through that and take a
• 18:57
  Speaker 8: more dubvish interpretation, be able to bring the committee along
• 19:01
  Speaker 8: with them. You know, when you start pricing hikes in
• 19:05
  Speaker 8: it depends on the oil move and it's persistent. But
• 19:07
  Speaker 8: I think there's a little bit of value there. A
• 19:09
  Speaker 8: completely different answer really to the opposite side. When you
• 19:12
  Speaker 8: look in the long end of the curve, the long
• 19:14
  Speaker 8: end needs to build term premium. We got a savings
• 19:18
  Speaker 8: glut that's turning into a savings deficit, particularly as we
• 19:22
  Speaker 8: need to reshure, rebuild, reallocate in global savings around the
• 19:27
  Speaker 8: implications of this Iran war, all at the same time
• 19:30
  Speaker 8: as fiscal deficits are increasing the demand for that borrowing.
• 19:34
  Speaker 8: I think there you see a different story, and that's
• 19:36
  Speaker 8: a that's less of a buying opportunity and more of
• 19:39
  Speaker 8: something we're going to need to see increase in terms
• 19:41
  Speaker 8: of the term premium to bring investors back into the
• 19:44
  Speaker 8: long end of the curve.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: He jeff got to see you a great answer, Jeffrey
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Rosenberg there of Black Crock breaking down its views, not
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: because I think it's the right answer, just it's an
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: important answer to a very difficult question. Right now to
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: ya yields high by ten basis points tens full forty one.
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: If you think that right now there's a great opportunity
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: to buy and the tenure, give us a call, because
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: right now everyone who we ask seems to say go
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: right to the front end and saying that's where I'm
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: going to get some yeals. But right now on the
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: long end, things might be changing, and ultimately we just
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: can't get ahead of it. And that seems to be
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: a theme again and again.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: Bob just emails in he's on his way to Step
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: one in Miami's here, and Bob's looking at and he's going.
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: The price of guests went up ten cents yesterday, twenty
• 20:21
  Speaker 6: two cents this week. People are needing out at restaurants.
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: That's got a lot more to do with us than
• 20:26
  Speaker 6: any of the.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Things that flight got more expensive. This afternoon is not over.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: Big tech coming up after the close, coming up tomorrow
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: on Bluebacks, tav On Bloembock surveillance. We'll kick things off
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: with Jutying and Manuell. I've ever Call, will catch up
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: with Mike Wilson, I've Morgan Stanley, and a whole lot
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: more from New York City this afternoon.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: Good afternoon,