Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Grinding On NFL Week 4

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Grinding On NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: Guy am Chad Millman, and we are back. Baby. That's right.
0:18
Speaker 1: We cannot be denied. Professional Better Simon Hunter and I
0:21
Speaker 1: we are forced that faced his adversity and we fight
0:25
Speaker 1: right through it. Simon Hunter my co host this weekend.
0:30
Speaker 1: This weekend, I felt like a real professional Better. I
0:34
Speaker 1: will explain we were just grinders. Simon Hunter. Say hello
0:39
Speaker 1: to the people, Say hello to your fans. Hey guys,
0:45
Speaker 1: all right, a reminder, Simon Hunter, Professional Better. Last year
0:48
Speaker 1: you joined the pod, we offered up season long pick
0:51
Speaker 1: up contest advice every week. This year, we are taking
0:53
Speaker 1: it a step further. You have joined the Draft Kings
0:55
Speaker 1: Pro Football pick Up National Championship. Every week we are
0:59
Speaker 1: going to decide what picks you should put in. Every week,
1:02
Speaker 1: you're offering top notch insight into how professional betters breakdown
1:07
Speaker 1: games and what they look for, not just on the
1:09
Speaker 1: five games will pick, but on all the games. You're
1:11
Speaker 1: getting lessons in game theory people that you cannot find
1:15
Speaker 1: anywhere else. And we know it because the audience is
1:18
Speaker 1: growing every single week. Now, let me get back to
1:20
Speaker 1: my point about being a grinder. I texted you Simon.
1:24
Speaker 1: On Sunday, I texted you. It's one of my favorite
1:26
Speaker 1: things to do is to text you on Sundays. I
1:28
Speaker 1: felt like on Sunday, this is what I wrote. This
1:31
Speaker 1: was a hard fought three and two. We were two
1:33
Speaker 1: and three the week before five and on week one,
1:35
Speaker 1: three and two. This past week, huge bounce back week,
1:39
Speaker 1: A hard fought three into a lucky win. I thought,
1:43
Speaker 1: on the Bears, thank god for big Dick Nicholes. A
1:46
Speaker 1: tough loss on the Washington football team. They had that
1:49
Speaker 1: game covered if not for Dwayne Haskins, like just sort
1:52
Speaker 1: of losing his crab. Great call on the Panthers, never sweat,
1:57
Speaker 1: so nice to be in the afternoon not sweating. Really
1:59
Speaker 1: bad on the Giants that was lost from the get go,
2:02
Speaker 1: and an easy calm the Pats. Right, is this what
2:05
Speaker 1: it feels like to be a professional? Better? It was
2:07
Speaker 1: a weekend in review. I would say that um in
2:11
Speaker 1: a normal year, we would have hit more like a
2:14
Speaker 1: couple of these teams were taking these home teams with
2:16
Speaker 1: the home crowds. I am noticing now with COVID this
2:19
Speaker 1: there's a major effect to a lot of these games
2:22
Speaker 1: like that come back. We saw in the Rams and
2:25
Speaker 1: the Bills game that like, that's that's happening every week,
2:28
Speaker 1: and then the Bears did it against Atlanta. So I'm
2:32
Speaker 1: starting to really adjust that these teams with no fans
2:36
Speaker 1: and vetteran quarterbacks, they're really really having advantage here with
2:40
Speaker 1: it's just like practice, and these are like guys. They
2:42
Speaker 1: throw a pick or they do something stupid, they don't care,
2:45
Speaker 1: they're not hearing any booze. They just get back out
2:47
Speaker 1: there and it's just like another rep, another three downs.
2:50
Speaker 1: So I am trying to adjust to that. Where we
2:54
Speaker 1: were definitely on the right side of Washington. That was
2:56
Speaker 1: just one of those games where you're exactly right. He
2:59
Speaker 1: had to have war turnovers to them to lose by seven,
3:03
Speaker 1: So it was seventeen. We were texting feeling good and
3:07
Speaker 1: we were talking about like, okay, like they were not
3:08
Speaker 1: really worried about that when this bears, this Bears bets
3:11
Speaker 1: dead and uh, I think that was I love the Pats.
3:18
Speaker 1: The Pats Pats money line with the Colts money line
3:21
Speaker 1: just felt like an easy bet this week for me,
3:23
Speaker 1: and that was a no sweat. That was a nice one.
3:25
Speaker 1: But I really really believed in the Bears going in,
3:29
Speaker 1: and I had people NonStop just coming at me about Atlanta.
3:32
Speaker 1: The how how can you see them coming up with
3:34
Speaker 1: their offensive step up? And I said, I really can't,
3:37
Speaker 1: but I can just see their defense getting stops on Atlanta.
3:40
Speaker 1: So of course to ten, Atlanta is up and our savior,
3:44
Speaker 1: Philadelphia's hero is now in Chicago. He came in Big
3:49
Speaker 1: Dick Nick falls love. Oh yeah, I mean the man
3:53
Speaker 1: has a statue in Phildelphia. I love the guy. So
3:57
Speaker 1: he he comes in and I think we had we
4:00
Speaker 1: touchdowns overturned. So we had a fourth a fourth down
4:04
Speaker 1: touchdown overturned, and then we had an interception in the
4:07
Speaker 1: ends on instead of a touchdown, So right there, that's
4:09
Speaker 1: fourteen points were lost. So like the Ads kept getting better,
4:13
Speaker 1: I went from plus a thousand up to a thousand
4:14
Speaker 1: and thirty one thousand, three hundred, and I took it.
4:19
Speaker 1: I didn't throw a thousand on. I put five because
4:21
Speaker 1: I did believe in them, but just mathematically, I was
4:23
Speaker 1: thinking they're probably gonna lose this game by three, because
4:26
Speaker 1: that's what I thought it was gonna be three. And
4:30
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, he did us a lot of favorites. He
4:32
Speaker 1: came out there and he just kept getting stopped by
4:35
Speaker 1: the Bears defense at the end of that game, so
4:37
Speaker 1: gave Nick the momentum. You put together three touchdowns and
4:41
Speaker 1: we covered our bets. So that was a week where
4:44
Speaker 1: we stumbled in a couple and like these people they
4:48
Speaker 1: think it's should be so much easier, Like how do
4:50
Speaker 1: you not take the Packers and the Chiefs. Let me
4:52
Speaker 1: think in a little secret, if you if you add
4:54
Speaker 1: up all the years and you're just taking the money
4:56
Speaker 1: line on a dog on Sunday night and putting it
4:58
Speaker 1: with the money night dog, that's not gonna hit for
5:02
Speaker 1: you consistently. That was again we fell into a couple
5:05
Speaker 1: of spots there, but like I wish we took them.
5:08
Speaker 1: Of course those were easy picks, but you just we're
5:10
Speaker 1: looking at from the numbers perspective, where the odds of
5:13
Speaker 1: those teams both covering as three and a half dogs
5:15
Speaker 1: is just so minischool because the whole public is gonna
5:18
Speaker 1: be on Green, but the whole public was gonna be
5:19
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. So that's the only reason we hesitant
5:21
Speaker 1: and we stayed away from those. So you there were
5:26
Speaker 1: um moments in that Bears game in Atlanta, moments for
5:32
Speaker 1: that Packers game in New Orleans, where you make a
5:36
Speaker 1: great point like we are now three weeks into the season,
5:40
Speaker 1: we are seeing the opportunities that veteran quarterbacks can have
5:44
Speaker 1: when they need to be And the Packers didn't even
5:47
Speaker 1: really need to come back in that game. They just
5:49
Speaker 1: sort of we're rolling the whole time. But how they
5:52
Speaker 1: can manage crowd noise? Right? And at what point when
5:57
Speaker 1: you say you're making adjustments on these what kind of
6:00
Speaker 1: adjustments are you're actually making. What is the numerical adjustment
6:04
Speaker 1: you're starting to make. I think the biggest one is
6:07
Speaker 1: I'm not going to put too much weight in the
6:08
Speaker 1: travel anymore. I was in the sense that these teams
6:12
Speaker 1: are still at home. It's still a home field advantage
6:15
Speaker 1: in some sense. And you're really seeing now that it's
6:18
Speaker 1: just we should just market the strictly neutral fields that
6:21
Speaker 1: these teams going on the road. It doesn't really matter
6:24
Speaker 1: if they're a good enough team and they have a
6:26
Speaker 1: good enough game plan for that week. There is no
6:28
Speaker 1: home field, There are no major major swings because of
6:32
Speaker 1: the crowds. Where the swings are coming that a team
6:35
Speaker 1: might have back to back three and outs and the
6:37
Speaker 1: other team will just put fourteen up and they're right
6:39
Speaker 1: back into whatever game they're in. So the best example
6:43
Speaker 1: I can think of was that Rams Bills game there
6:45
Speaker 1: if the Bills had fans and no world of the
6:48
Speaker 1: Rams come back and make that a game, and then
6:50
Speaker 1: the Bills, I mean I had them, So that was
6:53
Speaker 1: just that was by far the luckiest cover of the
6:55
Speaker 1: week for me. Josh Allen had multiple completions on third
6:59
Speaker 1: Day that are like third and and fifteen, third and
7:02
Speaker 1: nineteen and you gotta you got a call there at
7:05
Speaker 1: the end of the game that kept that game alive.
7:07
Speaker 1: So of course you can say they got lucky with that,
7:10
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where this this whole I'm
7:13
Speaker 1: trying to tell people that these live numbers, I usually
7:16
Speaker 1: wouldn't recommend taking these live money lines like we have been,
7:20
Speaker 1: but the way this this is going, if a good
7:22
Speaker 1: quarterback is down, I believe in the team in my game,
7:25
Speaker 1: my game, playing the bet before I had the game,
7:27
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take that my line because right now we're
7:29
Speaker 1: up a ton by taking these big money lines if
7:31
Speaker 1: you're just doing this straight bet. So I think people
7:34
Speaker 1: need to really be aware of making that adjustment that
7:36
Speaker 1: it's a good year to be playing these live numbers.
7:39
Speaker 1: All right, A little bit of a shameless plug here
7:41
Speaker 1: Matthew Freedman, Uh, Matt the oracle on Twitter who has
7:46
Speaker 1: just been doing phenomenal work on player props, on fantasy rankings,
7:50
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff on our Action Network live
7:53
Speaker 1: show on Sunday Mornings that we do at eleven o'clock
7:55
Speaker 1: on Sunday mornings. He uh said Josh Allen was his
7:59
Speaker 1: QB one in Fantasy. I ridiculed him to no end. Uh.
8:03
Speaker 1: He was accurate, accurate. Uh. And so you can listen
8:07
Speaker 1: to Matt uh in the Fantasy Flex podcast at well
8:10
Speaker 1: as well that we haven't the Action Network podcast. UM.
8:14
Speaker 1: The other thing is do you want to remind people
8:18
Speaker 1: go to review the podcast? Using the phrase? Simon says,
8:22
Speaker 1: we bounced back and if we like it and randomly
8:26
Speaker 1: choose it, you will win a free Action Network couldy.
8:28
Speaker 1: We will announce last week's winner at the end of
8:31
Speaker 1: this show. Where do you have a winner? Thank you
8:32
Speaker 1: for reviewing the podcast. I love it that you guys
8:35
Speaker 1: are engaged, Simon. We also have some news here that
8:39
Speaker 1: we're going to get to and we'll talk about this. Um.
8:42
Speaker 1: But when we get to sort of where that game
8:44
Speaker 1: would have been. Tennessee Titans COVID that that that that
8:49
Speaker 1: that the Tennessee Titans COVID. Like immediately, all of a sudden,
8:55
Speaker 1: everybody's sort of attitude about the NFL right now has
8:59
Speaker 1: to change because we have our first big setback, our
9:02
Speaker 1: first big challenge is a better When you hear about
9:06
Speaker 1: this holistically, what's your first response, depression. Yeah, it's just sad.
9:14
Speaker 1: I mean, all of us new in the back of
9:16
Speaker 1: my mind we are in a pandemic and we were
9:20
Speaker 1: kind of on a nice little role there where it
9:21
Speaker 1: was kind of out of sight, out of mind in
9:23
Speaker 1: at least in football, just because we weren't having any
9:26
Speaker 1: positives and we all knew this was probably gonna happen,
9:29
Speaker 1: just because it happened in baseball. And just like baseball,
9:33
Speaker 1: I think football will adjust and they'll just keep it rolling.
9:36
Speaker 1: So I've seen a lot of fan theories where they
9:38
Speaker 1: think it's either going to be moved to a Monday
9:40
Speaker 1: or Tuesday this week the game. Um My hope is
9:46
Speaker 1: they do that, because right now, if what there's people
9:48
Speaker 1: are saying is true, they'll give them a bye week.
9:50
Speaker 1: That's brutal for someone like me that has a lot
9:51
Speaker 1: of money on Pittsburgh futures, because you don't want this
9:55
Speaker 1: early bye week. You want late bye week, especially with
9:57
Speaker 1: the team like Pittsburgh gets older. So I'm hoping that
10:01
Speaker 1: these people are right and that they'll come in on Saturday,
10:04
Speaker 1: guys won't be positive, and we'll be back to business
10:06
Speaker 1: and they'll be down Tennessee. You'll be down three or
10:08
Speaker 1: four players, whatever the number ends up being, and they
10:11
Speaker 1: just play. But I already made a bunch of bets
10:14
Speaker 1: this week on Pittsburgh, So I'm just guessing the casinos
10:18
Speaker 1: will avoid those um if it comes out that they're
10:21
Speaker 1: canceling that game. So we'll see what happens. We're just
10:24
Speaker 1: like everyone else. We're just waiting on more information. Well,
10:29
Speaker 1: if you have Pittsburgh futures, I have Pittsburgh futures because
10:32
Speaker 1: I basically did everything you told me to do when
10:34
Speaker 1: we were podcasting during the summer. Let's get to our
10:38
Speaker 1: Thursday night football game. For fans at large, this probably
10:44
Speaker 1: feels like your regular crappy, horrible Thursday night football game.
10:49
Speaker 1: For bettors, this is like the Super Bowl of legal betting,
10:53
Speaker 1: because you've got the Denver Broncos in a state with
10:56
Speaker 1: online legal online sports betting Colorado versus the New York
11:01
Speaker 1: Jets in a state with legal online sports betting, uh
11:05
Speaker 1: in New Jersey. So we gotta break it down because
11:08
Speaker 1: there are gonna be people who are listening to this
11:10
Speaker 1: in both those states who are like, holy freak, I
11:13
Speaker 1: can bet on this, Like I can bet on this
11:15
Speaker 1: right now. So uh, Broncos, we're talking about two and
11:21
Speaker 1: a half point favorites right now according to Draft Kings
11:24
Speaker 1: on the road visiting the Jets, they are they might
11:28
Speaker 1: as well be called M E. S. S Mess mass Mess.
11:31
Speaker 1: Who I did that right there, just thought of it
11:34
Speaker 1: as I was podcasting, because this team is ugly, ugly,
11:39
Speaker 1: and this is one of those games where I was
11:41
Speaker 1: joking on the guy online. This is kind of Now,
11:42
Speaker 1: you take your girl out and you don't even gotta
11:45
Speaker 1: watch this game because you're not gonna learn anything. You're
11:47
Speaker 1: not gonna you're not gonna benefit from watching. Um, this
11:51
Speaker 1: is gonna be a provish shows all the pros. We're
11:53
Speaker 1: gonna take the Jets at home on Thursday, and Denver,
12:00
Speaker 1: it's tough to really know what their deal is because
12:02
Speaker 1: they've been plagued by injuries since the start. I mean,
12:05
Speaker 1: as soon as I lost one Miller, I knew all
12:07
Speaker 1: my features on them were pretty much dead. And when
12:12
Speaker 1: you have to own three teams like in this spot,
12:15
Speaker 1: of course, I'm gonna lean towards the Broncos because I
12:17
Speaker 1: think they're a more complete team. But I still I
12:21
Speaker 1: still love Sam Darnold. I'm still gonna round the Jets,
12:23
Speaker 1: even though they're just a train wreck. They have no
12:26
Speaker 1: offensive weapons. They're running a forty year old running back
12:29
Speaker 1: in Frank Bred that no one knows why. So people
12:32
Speaker 1: online are asking for if you don't want to bet
12:34
Speaker 1: on this, a fun bet you can make because you
12:36
Speaker 1: can just bet on Adam Gates to be first coach fired.
12:39
Speaker 1: But I still think that dan Quinn is my favorite
12:41
Speaker 1: first coach fight. I couldn't believe waking up Monday morning,
12:44
Speaker 1: I checked see if my beat cash and him being fired. No, No,
12:47
Speaker 1: that dan Quinn's back in the office. Dude, shocker, Like
12:51
Speaker 1: we I was texting with some other people on Sunday
12:54
Speaker 1: afternoon and I'm like, how is dan Quinn not fired
12:57
Speaker 1: by Monday morning? Like that? Like that's astonishing to me.
13:02
Speaker 1: How much could I have to screw up at home
13:03
Speaker 1: depot to get fired. That's what I thought of, because
13:06
Speaker 1: the guy Arthur Blank was the Falcon start at home deepot.
13:08
Speaker 1: I'm like, you might be able to be terrible at
13:10
Speaker 1: home depot and not get fired because dan Quinn still
13:14
Speaker 1: having a job after these collapses, epic collapses. That's on
13:19
Speaker 1: the coach, dude. It's just on the coach. You are
13:23
Speaker 1: not getting your team ready to play in the second half.
13:25
Speaker 1: You are not reminding the things they need to do
13:27
Speaker 1: in the second half. You are not making the adjustments
13:30
Speaker 1: you need to make to ensure you can maintain a
13:32
Speaker 1: lead in the second half. It is astonishing to me, truly.
13:37
Speaker 1: And it's funny where I guess he's thinking, Okay, if
13:43
Speaker 1: he can go up to Green Bay this week and
13:44
Speaker 1: he can get the win, I'll keep him. Let him
13:47
Speaker 1: keep the job. But it just doesn't make sense why
13:49
Speaker 1: you just want to get rid of this guy. That's
13:51
Speaker 1: the worst. That is seriously the worst back to back
13:55
Speaker 1: games I can remember for a franchise. I actually can't decide,
13:58
Speaker 1: like who's more negligent here, Like Adam Gaze for just
14:02
Speaker 1: being bad at his job, and like he might not
14:05
Speaker 1: have the horses, but even without the horses, like the
14:08
Speaker 1: Dolphins last year didn't have horses and they played their
14:11
Speaker 1: hearts out for Brian Flores Adam Gaze, it's like he's
14:15
Speaker 1: not even like connected to the team. And I don't
14:19
Speaker 1: know why you just said the most outrageous thing. You
14:21
Speaker 1: still like Sam Donald poor fellow. I can't decide if
14:26
Speaker 1: you're the poor fellow or Sam Donald the poor fellow.
14:28
Speaker 1: But what gives you confidence in Sam Donald? Because he
14:32
Speaker 1: has nothing wrong? He has seriously the worst though line
14:36
Speaker 1: and unskilled position players I think in the league. His
14:39
Speaker 1: If you go through the list of his wide receivers,
14:41
Speaker 1: you're not gonna know his signame. If you do know
14:43
Speaker 1: a name, that's gonna be a really old player or
14:45
Speaker 1: an old Lacrosse bur Na Chris Hogan. And they have
14:48
Speaker 1: Frank Gores's running back. So he set up to fail.
14:52
Speaker 1: He's been set up to fail. And he has little plays,
14:54
Speaker 1: these flash plays you can see his talent and what
14:57
Speaker 1: he can be under pressure. But I'm with you, this
15:00
Speaker 1: is the end of it for him. It seems like
15:01
Speaker 1: it seems like they're gonna tank this season, little drafting
15:04
Speaker 1: these qbs up high, and then he'll be on a
15:06
Speaker 1: new team in a year too, so it might be
15:09
Speaker 1: over framing from the Jets in the future, but I
15:11
Speaker 1: think he's gonna do well on a different team in
15:13
Speaker 1: a different scheme with a better coach. Al Right, next game,
15:17
Speaker 1: Brown's Cowboys, by the way, we are going to transition.
15:21
Speaker 1: We're gonna transition to the early game Sunday, one o'clock
15:25
Speaker 1: Brown's visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys plus five against the
15:28
Speaker 1: Seahawks the other day, and honest to god, they had
15:32
Speaker 1: the ball, they had a first down with about four
15:35
Speaker 1: thirty seven left in the game and uh somewhere in
15:39
Speaker 1: the twenty thirty year oldline close to the red zone.
15:41
Speaker 1: Uh down, And how Mike McCarthy cost three passing plays
15:47
Speaker 1: to run off thirty seconds and then kick a field
15:50
Speaker 1: goal and give Russell Wilson four minutes to score a touchdown.
15:55
Speaker 1: That's fire able to me. Maybe that's kind of good
15:57
Speaker 1: I'm in today, but that that was I mean, the
16:01
Speaker 1: worst part for you is that you have back to
16:03
Speaker 1: back weeks now involving the Seahawks that the two point
16:06
Speaker 1: conversion has decided your bet. So that's brutal beat um.
16:11
Speaker 1: From my perspective, I think the Cowboys are still being
16:16
Speaker 1: a little overvalued here that people are seeing their offense
16:20
Speaker 1: or seeing their weapons, are seeing how good they're doing,
16:22
Speaker 1: how every game that is putting up these crazy numbers.
16:26
Speaker 1: But I feel like everyone they just losers. They have
16:29
Speaker 1: loser mentality. They lose these games, and they got gifted
16:33
Speaker 1: one by Atlanta. We saw how bad Atlanta is now,
16:35
Speaker 1: and I think Cleveland. I hate Baker. I think he's
16:40
Speaker 1: incredibly overrated and he makes terrible decisions for a third
16:44
Speaker 1: year player. I don't know how he hasn't improved, which
16:47
Speaker 1: is hard. It's hard to say because I used to
16:49
Speaker 1: love his personality and what he was gonna bring the
16:51
Speaker 1: NFL because he's cocky and he's funny, and the stuff
16:54
Speaker 1: he does is like when he's winning is comical. When
16:58
Speaker 1: he's losing, he looks like a clown. And the public,
17:02
Speaker 1: I'm looking at umbers right here, the public are all
17:04
Speaker 1: over the Cowboys. And I had this number at three,
17:08
Speaker 1: so four and a half. I love the value of
17:11
Speaker 1: the Browns, especially with their two headed monster in the backfield.
17:15
Speaker 1: If they're come up with a game plane of just
17:16
Speaker 1: running it and Baker in my throat fifteen to twenty
17:18
Speaker 1: times to Dell and Landry. I love them to keep
17:21
Speaker 1: this game close or even win for Cleveland. This is
17:25
Speaker 1: this isn't everything game for the Cowboys, and the fact
17:29
Speaker 1: that the Browns have back to back wins. That's my
17:32
Speaker 1: biggest reason for your pause in here and saying, do
17:34
Speaker 1: I really want to back the Browns after two wins
17:37
Speaker 1: when they're coming agets a desperate team, So we don't
17:39
Speaker 1: have to put that one in. By I'm gonna be
17:41
Speaker 1: on the brown side. I'm so glad you said we
17:44
Speaker 1: don't have to put that one in because when we
17:46
Speaker 1: started talking about this, and I'm thinking, if he's gonna
17:48
Speaker 1: tell me I got about the Browns as part of
17:50
Speaker 1: my win chance to win a million dollars, I will
17:53
Speaker 1: puke right now. No I want to. I want to
17:55
Speaker 1: do that to you, But you are going to get
17:57
Speaker 1: that on them. I'm gonna say that number out. I'm
18:01
Speaker 1: sure it's gonna go up as the week goes along here.
18:05
Speaker 1: But there's just a really good value on the Browns
18:07
Speaker 1: here that they'll be able to keep it close, especially
18:09
Speaker 1: running against Dallas who they're giving up yards and chunk,
18:13
Speaker 1: especially in their secondary on easy passes. So I like
18:16
Speaker 1: to match up here for the Browns. All right, we
18:18
Speaker 1: gotta skip the next one because it's Titan Steelers. So
18:21
Speaker 1: let's go to Saints Lions. Saints uh four point favorites
18:25
Speaker 1: at home against the Lions. Dude, we gotta like both
18:30
Speaker 1: of these teams. Make me sick. I bet against the
18:33
Speaker 1: Lions this week. I bet on the Saints this week.
18:36
Speaker 1: They look like they're a mess. The Lions look like
18:38
Speaker 1: they're still a mess. I If anything, I think you're
18:41
Speaker 1: probably getting value on the Saints. But if you've got
18:44
Speaker 1: an opinion on this, that is going to sway me.
18:47
Speaker 1: Sway me. Yeah, And I can't fault anyone for betting
18:51
Speaker 1: the Saints in this game, just because the Lions needed
18:55
Speaker 1: two picks from Murray at the fifty and one run
18:58
Speaker 1: away back to about the thirty just to be in
19:00
Speaker 1: that game and get that win. So they obviously had
19:03
Speaker 1: a lot of things break right for them in that
19:04
Speaker 1: last game. And you're you're right, the Saints might be
19:10
Speaker 1: very undervalued here. Um, but it's hard for me to
19:14
Speaker 1: take Drew Brees right now. Where back to back weeks,
19:19
Speaker 1: this guy cannot go down field. He's doing all this
19:21
Speaker 1: underneath stuff which he might be working I mean, Kamar
19:25
Speaker 1: is a freaky's turning these little dump offs into touchdown.
19:28
Speaker 1: So I'm with you that, uh, we can leave this
19:32
Speaker 1: one out, but I'll be on the line side come
19:35
Speaker 1: game time. Seriously, all right, well maybe God we might
19:41
Speaker 1: have to revisit. Yeah. I don't feel good about It's
19:44
Speaker 1: the same like feeling I had last week with the Giants,
19:46
Speaker 1: like I hate doing it, but it's like these are
19:48
Speaker 1: the physicians I have to take because I have to
19:50
Speaker 1: trust the numbers saying that this team is being overvalued
19:52
Speaker 1: and that's where you're getting the values on the lines.
19:55
Speaker 1: Where do you power rate this game right now? So
19:57
Speaker 1: I had it a three and a half and I
19:58
Speaker 1: think it opened at three three and a half, but
20:01
Speaker 1: it's up the four and a half now. So this
20:05
Speaker 1: is this is one of those where if I do better,
20:07
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet very small lines because I hate Matt Patrician,
20:09
Speaker 1: I hate back and the guy end up switching to
20:11
Speaker 1: them before kickoff just because all all the money. I
20:16
Speaker 1: think Darren was my two days I was on DraftKings
20:19
Speaker 1: was on the Cardinals. So that was just one of
20:22
Speaker 1: those where all right, the guys in Vegas that they're
20:25
Speaker 1: reading this one that they're saying all the values on
20:27
Speaker 1: the five and a half, I'm just gonna I'm just
20:29
Speaker 1: gonna buy on the five and a half. So I
20:31
Speaker 1: got lucky with that one. But it's it's it's another
20:33
Speaker 1: one of those weeks where the lines they need this
20:37
Speaker 1: win here just to stay afloat in their division because
20:39
Speaker 1: right now they have two teams are three and now,
20:40
Speaker 1: so we'll see come game time which side will end
20:43
Speaker 1: up on. Well, speaking to three and now, we're gonna
20:46
Speaker 1: skip the Vikings in the Texans, and I apologize to people,
20:48
Speaker 1: but like the Vikings facility is shut down right now.
20:53
Speaker 1: We have no idea what's going to happen with that game.
20:55
Speaker 1: So markets are sort of in flux there. It's like
20:59
Speaker 1: I can't even prescribe anything for this game either, you
21:02
Speaker 1: just because we just don't know what's going to happen
21:04
Speaker 1: with the Vikings in Texas. So the culture was in
21:06
Speaker 1: the Bears. The Bears are three and o. Nick Foles,
21:10
Speaker 1: the greatest quarterback whoever lived, is getting his first start
21:14
Speaker 1: against Philip Rivers, a quarterback that makes you more sick
21:17
Speaker 1: to bed on than maybe Daniel Jones. This game is
21:21
Speaker 1: it's open to pick right now, the Colts are two
21:26
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Dude, how are we not
21:28
Speaker 1: going with the Bears in this game? This is a
21:30
Speaker 1: no brainer. I do love the Bears, you know I
21:34
Speaker 1: love Nick Foles. Uh. The biggest pause with this one
21:38
Speaker 1: is that, um, I'm not I it's not that that
21:44
Speaker 1: the Bears three weeks straight, but I pretty much have
21:46
Speaker 1: is that, like every week, I've been cool with us
21:48
Speaker 1: taking the Bears in here because I've liked the value
21:50
Speaker 1: all three weeks. And once again I like this value
21:53
Speaker 1: where I have the Bears of minus one, so we're
21:56
Speaker 1: getting a full three and a half when it's at
21:58
Speaker 1: two and a half right now. The value you to me,
22:02
Speaker 1: and I think people keep forgetting that. Rivers He's going
22:07
Speaker 1: to turn it over. This This man takes risk. He's
22:10
Speaker 1: last week. I saw the whole that whole game because
22:14
Speaker 1: I had a decent amount of the Colts money line,
22:16
Speaker 1: and they literally didn't run. They might have ran six
22:19
Speaker 1: plays against the Jets. That's how much they don't respect
22:23
Speaker 1: the Jets. They knew that they could just run their
22:24
Speaker 1: base offense not show anything, and they're gonna get an
22:27
Speaker 1: easy one in that game. So I'm with you. I'm
22:31
Speaker 1: good with backing the barriers here, and I'd be cool
22:33
Speaker 1: with putting them in. Um, we'll just have to wait
22:36
Speaker 1: and see, because I want to get more info on
22:38
Speaker 1: the Bears, because I know that Cohen went down for
22:41
Speaker 1: you guys, that tire colling, the guys lost the running back,
22:44
Speaker 1: So I just want to wait and see what their
22:45
Speaker 1: other injury report went were for the Bears. I don't
22:48
Speaker 1: know why you say you guys. I don't know what
22:52
Speaker 1: would make you say you guys, as I had point
22:56
Speaker 1: to the Bears banner hanging over my left shoulder right now.
23:00
Speaker 1: But I'm with you, like this team is going to
23:02
Speaker 1: be criminally undervalued, and I honestly think the market, like
23:06
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are overvaluing not just Philip Rivers, but the
23:09
Speaker 1: Colts defense, which obviously is playing amazing. And they had
23:13
Speaker 1: twenty six fantasy points this past weekend. Like at one
23:16
Speaker 1: point on the red Zone, Scott Hanson reported that that
23:21
Speaker 1: they had the ninth most fantasy points of anybody on Sunday.
23:26
Speaker 1: But it's a lot of yardage, Like it's a lot
23:28
Speaker 1: of fancy stats and like superficial stats, and so give
23:31
Speaker 1: me the Bears plus two, and I have at home.
23:33
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm with you, Chargers plus seven and a half.
23:37
Speaker 1: We're still in the one p N games. Chargers plus
23:39
Speaker 1: seven and a half visiting the Buccaneers. This game has
23:43
Speaker 1: popped by three points since it opened. It opened it
23:45
Speaker 1: four and a half Bucks that's coming in the bus.
23:51
Speaker 1: I like the Chargers here, um going in just because
23:54
Speaker 1: it's a high number. And we talked last week when
23:58
Speaker 1: we're talking about Caroline, is that the Chargers aren't gonna
24:01
Speaker 1: get blow out. They're gonna the third team that's gonna
24:03
Speaker 1: be able to keep these games close. But when will
24:06
Speaker 1: these injuries catch up to them? Because they just lost
24:08
Speaker 1: Chris Harris. Uh so now they're down their best corner. Um. Luckily,
24:14
Speaker 1: the Bucks lost, uh I mean not luckily, but they
24:16
Speaker 1: lost Godwin, so that kind of canceled each other out.
24:19
Speaker 1: I'm still gonna take the Chargers here. I just have
24:22
Speaker 1: less confidence, But I do like the number of seven
24:24
Speaker 1: and a half against a Buccaneers team that just blew
24:27
Speaker 1: out a team. So I'm gonna back to the road
24:30
Speaker 1: doll here that just lost at home in the Chargers.
24:32
Speaker 1: Do we like it enough to the contest it? I wouldn't.
24:36
Speaker 1: I kind of want to, but it's like, am I
24:38
Speaker 1: getting too smart? Or this feels like Washington all over again.
24:40
Speaker 1: It's like, am I, am I getting too smart for
24:42
Speaker 1: our contest? I can promise you there's no chance of
24:46
Speaker 1: you and I together. We're getting too smart. I don't know.
24:51
Speaker 1: My brother just got your book and New York Times
24:53
Speaker 1: bestseller and uh, which which best sellers? I wrote that
25:00
Speaker 1: one to Chad Milman wrote a book, and uh, I said, yeah,
25:04
Speaker 1: Chad just has the little stack Nels garage and he
25:06
Speaker 1: just personally mails him out to people. He's a good guy.
25:11
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm gonna get a royalty check for that.
25:14
Speaker 1: That's pretty nice. I will. I really appreciate that. Uh.
25:20
Speaker 1: And if tell your brother, if if you win a
25:22
Speaker 1: million dollars, you will happily give him the two dollars
25:25
Speaker 1: and fifty cents that uh I get in royalties for that.
25:29
Speaker 1: I'll do them one better. I'll try to get it
25:31
Speaker 1: signed from you. It's least you can do it, right.
25:33
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's so nice that someone's asking me
25:36
Speaker 1: to sign books instead of Scooch. Whoever that guy is.
25:40
Speaker 1: He keeps coming after us on Twitter that says, bring
25:42
Speaker 1: back Scooch Scooch isn't signing books anymore. Now I'm signing books. Yeah,
25:46
Speaker 1: come on, guy, all right, so let's walk away from
25:50
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Let's not get too smart. Ravens on the road.
25:53
Speaker 1: Tough showing last night, um minus twelve and a half
25:57
Speaker 1: against the Washington football team. So what's really a road game?
26:00
Speaker 1: It's there driving half an hour. Probably I'll staying I'll
26:04
Speaker 1: staying at home on Saturday night. Too much for me. Yeah,
26:10
Speaker 1: And just like everything we do in this podcast, everything
26:12
Speaker 1: we loved slowly dies. So we ended up killing Lamar's
26:15
Speaker 1: MVP and killed up we killed Kyler Murray's MVP. So
26:18
Speaker 1: that was nice, nice by us. Um, I'm gonna take
26:23
Speaker 1: the Ravens here. Like the the comments from Haskins, the
26:27
Speaker 1: comments from Rivera, it just seems like they're a team
26:30
Speaker 1: that's like this guy, this guy in it. We're already
26:34
Speaker 1: sick of this and now you got the Ravens coming in.
26:37
Speaker 1: Really piste off embarrassed. I mean, Lamar's comments last night
26:42
Speaker 1: were frightening when he said that the Chiefs did the
26:43
Speaker 1: exact same thing that the Titans did on defense to
26:46
Speaker 1: them to stop them. And in my mind, you guys
26:50
Speaker 1: were getting ten yards to clip, your offensive coordinator for
26:53
Speaker 1: some reason started passing the entire game when you're getting
26:56
Speaker 1: ten yards a clip on the ground. So I love
27:00
Speaker 1: the bounceback spire for their Ravens. But like you just said,
27:03
Speaker 1: it's a big number. So we can put that on
27:04
Speaker 1: the side, We're not gonna We're not gonna put that
27:07
Speaker 1: in a contest. There's no way. However, however, Cardinals Panthers.
27:16
Speaker 1: It's like we gotta make a Sofie's choice here because
27:20
Speaker 1: it's our favorite team, the Cardinals, against our favorite team,
27:24
Speaker 1: the Panthers. We have backed both of them every single week.
27:28
Speaker 1: So how do we choose between our two loves. Yeah, well,
27:35
Speaker 1: I actually faded. I faded the Panthers week one just
27:37
Speaker 1: because their defense is so young. Uh. But yeah, I've
27:40
Speaker 1: been on the last two weeks and this is another.
27:44
Speaker 1: Not that it feels like a trap spot because people
27:46
Speaker 1: might be down the Cardinals because they just looked really
27:49
Speaker 1: bad at home. Um, but I like the Cardinals shore
27:53
Speaker 1: I like them to bounce back against a really bad defense.
27:56
Speaker 1: And I know Teddy can sling it. He can keep
27:57
Speaker 1: teams in games. You've struggled last week in the red
28:00
Speaker 1: zone and he struggled the week before in the red
28:02
Speaker 1: zone and the week before, so it's three straight weeks
28:05
Speaker 1: now that I've seen him struggling in the red zone
28:07
Speaker 1: where Kyler when he gets down there, he usually puts
28:09
Speaker 1: it away. So I'm gonna be back on the Cardinals
28:12
Speaker 1: this week, Eve though, I know that's gonna be a
28:13
Speaker 1: public play. You know what. I'm with you, and I
28:21
Speaker 1: think we're getting value here. I think this is a
28:23
Speaker 1: public perception play in that I actually think the line
28:28
Speaker 1: hasn't moved at all, and maybe you're not. Maybe you're
28:31
Speaker 1: telling me something and about saying it. I don't know
28:34
Speaker 1: where you have this power rated, but the Panthers are
28:37
Speaker 1: as high as they're gonna get it right now, and
28:38
Speaker 1: the Cardinals as low as they've been oh season, So
28:42
Speaker 1: I gotta be getting value. I don't even know how
28:44
Speaker 1: you power rated at this. Tell me what you did.
28:46
Speaker 1: So I had this at Cardinals five and a half
28:49
Speaker 1: and it opened, I believe at four, and it's so
28:53
Speaker 1: the Sharps game, and they hit this Panthers line because
28:55
Speaker 1: it's down to three and a half despite sev of
28:59
Speaker 1: the it's being on the Cardinals. So I get their
29:04
Speaker 1: angle that they think the Panthers could keep this close
29:07
Speaker 1: against a team on the Cardinals that look sloppy last week.
29:12
Speaker 1: But I think they're just undervalue and still Kyler Murray
29:14
Speaker 1: and what he can do. So we're gonna be on
29:18
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. That's what let's put him in, all right.
29:22
Speaker 1: Right now, we've got two teams we love, and by
29:24
Speaker 1: the way, it's the team two teams we love every week. Yeah,
29:28
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Cardinals. We are like so predictable
29:33
Speaker 1: awful Bears and Cardinals. Because the other team we love
29:35
Speaker 1: right now that we that we talked about was the Browns.
29:38
Speaker 1: I don't know if we'll get there. Jags next one
29:40
Speaker 1: o'clock game, Jack's plus three visiting Cincinnati. This is a
29:45
Speaker 1: total like yack fast and what I mean, I don't
29:49
Speaker 1: mean talk, I mean like disgusting cute fest. And it
29:55
Speaker 1: was shots last week where the news came out of
30:00
Speaker 1: uh DJ Trark wasn't gonna play for Jacksonville. And I
30:05
Speaker 1: didn't really think that was gonna affect the Jags as
30:08
Speaker 1: much as it did. But it seems like Minshew must
30:11
Speaker 1: use him as a safe out where they had guys open,
30:14
Speaker 1: but Minshew was painticking instead. Of just staying on the course,
30:17
Speaker 1: looking down fielding hitting these guys and everything I've seen
30:21
Speaker 1: from Borrow, I've been impressed that Eagles game as an
30:24
Speaker 1: Eagles fan was I mean, it's top five worstamp experience
30:28
Speaker 1: since we've won the Super Bowl. Um, he's tough. I mean,
30:33
Speaker 1: he's taking big hits and he's getting up and I
30:36
Speaker 1: think he maybe sat one playout because he got knocked
30:39
Speaker 1: the heck out. But he's he's really proven to me,
30:42
Speaker 1: and he's three weeks he's covered. So I'm not gonna
30:46
Speaker 1: take the Bengals here because it's their due for regression.
30:49
Speaker 1: I mean, them going four o e t s it
30:51
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocking. But the line keeps going from three
30:55
Speaker 1: to three and a half. If it goes to three
30:56
Speaker 1: and a half, I'll back the Jags here. I okay,
31:00
Speaker 1: but we don't have to back the Jabs, right. No,
31:02
Speaker 1: I don't want to put that. I don't want to
31:04
Speaker 1: be sweating us because you know what I do want
31:06
Speaker 1: to sweat. I want to sweat the Dolphin too. Plus
31:09
Speaker 1: six and a half right now, right now, the Seahawks
31:14
Speaker 1: visiting the Dolphins. The Seahawks are getting eight percent of
31:18
Speaker 1: the tickets so what we are getting right now is
31:21
Speaker 1: a classic road favorite getting eight percent of the money. Like,
31:27
Speaker 1: these are bets that pay you bet them over the
31:29
Speaker 1: long haul. They pay. Please don't talk me off of this.
31:33
Speaker 1: Please don't talk me off of the Dolphins at plus
31:36
Speaker 1: six and a half. I love Brian Flores. I want
31:38
Speaker 1: to bet this team so badly. I do too, And
31:42
Speaker 1: I love the fact that the Seahawks, like we were
31:46
Speaker 1: just talking about, there're three no three o E t
31:48
Speaker 1: s and these kind of teams against the spread, they're
31:52
Speaker 1: gonna drop some Vegas isn't here just to give out
31:55
Speaker 1: free money. There's no teams I go sixteen and most
31:58
Speaker 1: teams hit a point where they're gonna go ten and
32:00
Speaker 1: six nine seven. That's the norm pre t s because
32:03
Speaker 1: there's always these fluke teams. I think last year the
32:06
Speaker 1: best covering team we're probably the Ravens in Miami. I
32:09
Speaker 1: think Miami was like ten and six, and the Ravens
32:12
Speaker 1: whatever they were, they're thirteen and three I think against
32:14
Speaker 1: the spread. So there's always these teams that can be
32:18
Speaker 1: flukey with it, and like I'm always like on the
32:20
Speaker 1: lookout for those tendant kind of teams where the Seahawks
32:23
Speaker 1: keep covering these numbers they shouldn't be covering. They've had
32:26
Speaker 1: a lot of fortune early on here. And if it's
32:30
Speaker 1: true that Adams is out for this game, that's a huge,
32:33
Speaker 1: huge hit to an already very bad secondary. And we've
32:39
Speaker 1: had three straight weeks where the Seahawks defense has been
32:42
Speaker 1: lit up. And what we've seen from fits Magic is
32:45
Speaker 1: he's in a good mode right now. I mean that
32:47
Speaker 1: there's a night game I think he had like three
32:49
Speaker 1: in completions. The guy was literally in a mode. So
32:53
Speaker 1: I'd be good with back in the Dolphins here. I
32:55
Speaker 1: want to wait on the injury report because, like I said,
32:57
Speaker 1: last week, they were down their best corner in the
33:00
Speaker 1: Miami that that's a big deal against us. But this
33:03
Speaker 1: is just screams back door, and I really do like
33:07
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I wish you would go back to seven.
33:08
Speaker 1: Might be cool with the six and a half. I
33:11
Speaker 1: agree with you on everything you just said. This team
33:14
Speaker 1: is gonna play hard. Fitzpatrick is in a mind meld
33:17
Speaker 1: with his receivers right now, and that back door will
33:21
Speaker 1: be open. And the Seahawks are just are just winning
33:26
Speaker 1: in a way and covering in a way that feels
33:29
Speaker 1: like impossible to maintain. The only person who can maintain
33:34
Speaker 1: that is Ryan Fitzpatrick covering the back door every week himself,
33:39
Speaker 1: and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick he's the man for me.
33:44
Speaker 1: I mean, it is scary because we're going against Mr Unlimited,
33:49
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, I can't. I can't keep
33:53
Speaker 1: back in the Seahawks here, like they have to slip up,
33:56
Speaker 1: and this is just a perfect spot for them to
33:58
Speaker 1: slip up, an early game down in hot Florida. So
34:02
Speaker 1: I like this a lot for the Dolphins. All Right,
34:04
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to the late games. Reminder, everybody go
34:07
Speaker 1: rate review the podcast please using the phrase Simon says
34:10
Speaker 1: we bounced back. If we like it and randomly choose it,
34:15
Speaker 1: you will win a Free Action Network hoodie. We are
34:17
Speaker 1: going to announce last week's winner. I already know who
34:20
Speaker 1: it is last week's winner at the end of this show.
34:24
Speaker 1: All right, let's move into the four o'clock games, the
34:26
Speaker 1: late games. We gotta doozy. We got the New York
34:29
Speaker 1: Football Giants thirteen point dogs visiting the Los Angeles RAMS
34:36
Speaker 1: members moved up, my friend up a lot money and
34:40
Speaker 1: bets all coming in on the Rams. It feels like
34:44
Speaker 1: a pass. Yeah. And it's one of those where last
34:49
Speaker 1: week that Giants game, it was I think thirteen to
34:52
Speaker 1: ten or sixteen thirteen or something like that, and then
34:54
Speaker 1: all of a sudden they just got out of hand
34:57
Speaker 1: where St. Frangis ran it all over them. And when
35:03
Speaker 1: you're when the Giants were playing a team that has
35:05
Speaker 1: four percent of their salary or almost half their starters
35:09
Speaker 1: out for a game, and that's the performance they put up,
35:12
Speaker 1: you immediately have to look at the head coach because
35:14
Speaker 1: he's not putting his players in the best position to win.
35:17
Speaker 1: And I think the Rams here and a bounced back spot,
35:21
Speaker 1: they're gonna be the public darling. And this is another
35:23
Speaker 1: huge number game where I can't believe I'm back on
35:26
Speaker 1: these big favorites, but they can do really well at
35:31
Speaker 1: running the ball, and that's what the Rams are known for,
35:34
Speaker 1: is running the ball. So I'm with you this this
35:38
Speaker 1: this one I wouldn't put in because it's too big
35:40
Speaker 1: of a number and it's really easier for the Giants
35:42
Speaker 1: gonna late squarter back door this. But I like the Rams,
35:45
Speaker 1: and I like I like them their style against the
35:47
Speaker 1: Giant stuff. I mean, you're right now, you're making bets
35:53
Speaker 1: on a combined five and a half point favorites between
35:57
Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Rams, just saying I know it's crazy,
36:03
Speaker 1: but it's like the same thing I did last week
36:04
Speaker 1: when I took the cultes. It's like, I know, all
36:06
Speaker 1: the numbers say I should be on the Jets, that
36:08
Speaker 1: this is a trap and that they're going to cover
36:10
Speaker 1: this name because they're owing to a t s. I
36:12
Speaker 1: own two against the spread, But it's COVID, it's practice.
36:16
Speaker 1: There's no fans, there's no pressure. So these better teams
36:20
Speaker 1: they're literally screaming against worst teams. It's just easy when
36:23
Speaker 1: they're such better teams and these no fans, they don't
36:26
Speaker 1: have the normal kind of pressure that they are used to.
36:30
Speaker 1: It's kind of one of those where it's going good,
36:32
Speaker 1: it's just snowballs, and these good teams when they're beating
36:35
Speaker 1: these bad teams, these pad teams can't keep them close.
36:38
Speaker 1: And I think we're gonna keep seeing as this season
36:39
Speaker 1: goes alonger. Maybe late in the year I'll catch up
36:42
Speaker 1: and Vegas will catch up to these numbers, But for
36:44
Speaker 1: right now, I'm gonna back these favorites. I really like
36:48
Speaker 1: how you're you're addressing and identifying. You're identifying and addressing
36:53
Speaker 1: the home field component here. I they think that's fascinating. Uh,
36:57
Speaker 1: and that's gonna be along a conversation point. I think
36:59
Speaker 1: when we in the next week, you have four weeks
37:01
Speaker 1: of data, and I think it'd be really valuable for
37:05
Speaker 1: people to truly see, like, okay, instances where you've made
37:09
Speaker 1: the adjustment and it's worked and and you've been spot
37:12
Speaker 1: on about it. It's just fascinating to me. That way
37:14
Speaker 1: you're phrasing these is sort of practice games. I love it.
37:18
Speaker 1: No comment needed, no comment needed from you, Sigment. I'm
37:20
Speaker 1: just complimenting you. You're not gonna get that. You're not
37:22
Speaker 1: gonna get that from your Twitter fans. You're only going
37:24
Speaker 1: to get that from me. All they give me is love.
37:27
Speaker 1: They're nice people, are just a one or two jackasses,
37:30
Speaker 1: just the one. I love how you retweet all of
37:32
Speaker 1: them bills Bills Visiting the Raiders, the Ascendant, the Miracle,
37:38
Speaker 1: the bills from Buffalo Matt Mitchell, our podcast producers, favorite
37:44
Speaker 1: team of any team in any sport, of those happening.
37:49
Speaker 1: Now we're on the bills happen. Now we're making it happy.
37:54
Speaker 1: Now spirits a lot of spirit. Yes, spirits happen. The
38:01
Speaker 1: Bills are three point favorites at the Raiders in Las Vegas.
38:05
Speaker 1: We'll wait and see what the injury reported with the
38:07
Speaker 1: Raiders because they had a lot of guys get banged
38:09
Speaker 1: up in that New England game and Wall are barely
38:11
Speaker 1: even played for them, which was a big deal at
38:13
Speaker 1: tight end. And this is another one of those games
38:16
Speaker 1: where we're gonna buy a low in Vegas because the
38:20
Speaker 1: Bill has just had an incredible come back. Now, well,
38:23
Speaker 1: now you can tell me I love the Raiders here.
38:25
Speaker 1: I think that with everything going on the Bills, they're
38:27
Speaker 1: flying really high. This isn't This is a nice little
38:30
Speaker 1: let down spot for them. So this is one of
38:31
Speaker 1: those They're gonna come in feeling really good. And I
38:34
Speaker 1: could just see the Raiders keeping it close and eventually
38:36
Speaker 1: plan out. I went very and so I'm back in
38:38
Speaker 1: the Raiders here. Oh my god. I hate betting on
38:40
Speaker 1: the Raiders. Like you know what's interesting. I hate betting
38:43
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. I have no sense of their identity
38:46
Speaker 1: at all. It also feels like I am making amateur
38:50
Speaker 1: mistakes by making a boaket statement. I refused to bet
38:53
Speaker 1: on the Raiders and then you'll talk me into the
38:55
Speaker 1: Raiders because for the same logic, why I want to
38:58
Speaker 1: bet the Dolphins, Like the Seahawks are coming in on
39:02
Speaker 1: a high, they're coming in overvalued, and I'm getting a
39:05
Speaker 1: team that is like not very good at home, is
39:07
Speaker 1: a little bit of an underdog. So I was letting
39:10
Speaker 1: my Raiders bias get in the way of sound professional
39:13
Speaker 1: betting decision making. So of course we're going to put
39:16
Speaker 1: the Raiders on our list because also, why wouldn't we
39:19
Speaker 1: want to add the Raiders when we also have teams
39:21
Speaker 1: like the Dolphins and the Bears on this list, Because
39:23
Speaker 1: there's nothing better than being incredibly uncomfortable with five bad
39:27
Speaker 1: teams that you're betting to win a million dollars. And
39:33
Speaker 1: I know we've got three dogs right now, So by
39:34
Speaker 1: the end of the week, we'll definitely are gonna have
39:36
Speaker 1: one or two favorites mixed in. It's just what we're
39:38
Speaker 1: doing right now. On Tuesday, we're just waiting for more
39:40
Speaker 1: information because these favorites, I do like betting them, but
39:44
Speaker 1: I'm very picky and choosing with these favorites, Like we've
39:47
Speaker 1: gone over it week one my favorite bet was the Steelers,
39:50
Speaker 1: they were minus six favorite, they covered. Uh. Week two,
39:54
Speaker 1: I love the Cardinals, they were a big favorite, they covered.
39:57
Speaker 1: And then week three, I probably I don't know how
40:02
Speaker 1: much we spent on it, but I think I said
40:04
Speaker 1: that it was just an easy, easy bet taking the
40:06
Speaker 1: Patriots there in that spot, that was an easy cover.
40:09
Speaker 1: So we're three and our right now my favorite favorite.
40:11
Speaker 1: So hopefully I can mix another one because I have
40:13
Speaker 1: a couple that I do like, and we're about to
40:15
Speaker 1: talk one here about the Chiefs. Where the value is
40:19
Speaker 1: going to be on New England in this game with
40:21
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, because I think most people know that what
40:25
Speaker 1: New England does well as with the Chiefs too bad,
40:27
Speaker 1: which is running the ball. So you're looking at a
40:31
Speaker 1: game where people are thinking, if thything that can control
40:32
Speaker 1: this clock, if you're getting a good number at seven,
40:35
Speaker 1: why wouldn't you take Bill Belichick as the seven point dog?
40:38
Speaker 1: And it's just making me a little nervous when I
40:41
Speaker 1: saw last week with cam is that if he's not
40:45
Speaker 1: on target with these weapons, that offense can really struggle.
40:49
Speaker 1: They needed a bunch of turnovers from the Raiders kind
40:51
Speaker 1: of get them back into that game. So if we're
40:55
Speaker 1: looking for a favorite. That's really chalky. I do like
40:57
Speaker 1: the Chiefs this week against the Patriots, but I hate
41:00
Speaker 1: I hate against Bill Belichick. Hey, going against Bill Belichick.
41:03
Speaker 1: But there is the Cam Newton factor. I agree with
41:06
Speaker 1: you even on Sunday, Like I was a little even
41:09
Speaker 1: though I knew like that was the right call, I'm
41:13
Speaker 1: nervous betting the guy. I have no confidence when he
41:15
Speaker 1: goes back to throw none. Yeah, there's sometimes where he
41:18
Speaker 1: drops back there and like he does that style where
41:21
Speaker 1: he just quirks his head back and just throws it
41:23
Speaker 1: as hard as he can to a guy and sither're
41:25
Speaker 1: gonna go like twenty over the guy. It's gonna hit
41:27
Speaker 1: and right in the hand. So I'm with you. We
41:30
Speaker 1: don't have to put this one in. We can leave
41:32
Speaker 1: it on the side. About out back the Chiefs this week?
41:35
Speaker 1: What kind of world are we living in where we
41:37
Speaker 1: might want to back the Browns instead of Build Belichick.
41:41
Speaker 1: That is in a nutshell, my friend. Yeah, what is
41:46
Speaker 1: happening is the kind of year where it makes more
41:49
Speaker 1: sense to back the Cleveland Browns than Bill Belichick in
41:53
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. All right, let's put a pin
41:55
Speaker 1: in that one because the next two games, like unless
41:58
Speaker 1: you can convince me Eagles visiting the Niners, Eagles seven
42:02
Speaker 1: point dogs? Are you gonna tell me right now? Like
42:04
Speaker 1: now is the time to buy Carson Wentz. It's impossible
42:09
Speaker 1: to say. It's just like I mean, as a fan,
42:15
Speaker 1: I am truly embarrassed, Like the fact the fact that
42:19
Speaker 1: Carson went to six interceptions through three games. It's everything
42:23
Speaker 1: is just falling apart. Doug Peterson is coaching like a coward.
42:26
Speaker 1: He was trying to go he was trying to play
42:28
Speaker 1: for a safe field. But at the end of the
42:29
Speaker 1: game and if I have to settle for a punt,
42:32
Speaker 1: so great opportunity by alone the Eagles, they're own well
42:39
Speaker 1: oh two on one half game out of first place
42:41
Speaker 1: the NFC East, thank you, and same Fran. They're so
42:48
Speaker 1: well coached, and they've played two really bad teams back
42:52
Speaker 1: to back, so it's hard to gauge what they really
42:54
Speaker 1: are without all these players, because they just beat up
42:56
Speaker 1: the Jets and be up the Giants, which people arguing
42:58
Speaker 1: are the two worst teams on FOP. So I'd be
43:02
Speaker 1: good taking the Egos in a prime time game here
43:05
Speaker 1: catching seven and a must win game for them against
43:09
Speaker 1: a team that's still trying to recover from all these injuries.
43:13
Speaker 1: And I know all these San frans fans are gonna
43:15
Speaker 1: come at me again saying I hate their team. I
43:17
Speaker 1: love San France, I love their team. I just think
43:20
Speaker 1: these injuries, they can't just keep winning when all these
43:22
Speaker 1: players are missing. You've done it again, Simon Hunter. You've
43:29
Speaker 1: You've nearly convinced me that a team that played for
43:33
Speaker 1: the tie because the coach was too afraid to have
43:36
Speaker 1: his quarterback make a play, uh, is the team that
43:41
Speaker 1: you might want to back against. The team that represented
43:43
Speaker 1: the NFC in the Super Bowl last year is the worst.
43:48
Speaker 1: It's the worst. But it's just like as an Eagles fan,
43:50
Speaker 1: I usually have a pretty good pulse on this team,
43:52
Speaker 1: and over the last few years, these are kind of the
43:56
Speaker 1: the kind of games the Eagles go somewhere and they
43:59
Speaker 1: went like last year they were terrible. They went up
44:01
Speaker 1: to Buffalo and they dominated Buffalo a couple of weeks there.
44:04
Speaker 1: They went up to Green Bay and they dominated Green Bay,
44:06
Speaker 1: who at the time was one of the best teams
44:08
Speaker 1: in football. So I'm gonna trust the number and say
44:12
Speaker 1: that this should be four or four and a half
44:14
Speaker 1: and we're getting a good value here six and a
44:16
Speaker 1: half seven, So I like I do like the Eagles
44:19
Speaker 1: in the spot prime time. All right, can we agree
44:23
Speaker 1: we hate the Packers and the Falcons. We can agree
44:26
Speaker 1: on it because I'm still too low on the like,
44:29
Speaker 1: I gotta update what I'm doing green Bay because I
44:31
Speaker 1: keep every week I'm even though I loved it coming
44:33
Speaker 1: in the year. I was on them forever nine wins,
44:36
Speaker 1: and I think people are really underestimating the scheme they ran.
44:40
Speaker 1: Last year was new and they did really well with it.
44:43
Speaker 1: They went thirteen and three, and this year things are
44:45
Speaker 1: just clicking with Rodgers. He's just seeing the game so well.
44:49
Speaker 1: But this is do or die for the Falcons, and
44:51
Speaker 1: it's another one of those where I hate going against
44:54
Speaker 1: these really desperate teams. First teams that are feeling good
44:58
Speaker 1: about themselves. They're having big wins, like Green Bay winning
45:01
Speaker 1: that game at prime time in New Orleans like they
45:03
Speaker 1: had to been the best flight home. They're feeling good
45:05
Speaker 1: this whole week. The Falcons are horrible. That's the only
45:09
Speaker 1: reason we're not going to put them in this because
45:11
Speaker 1: I'm with the Quinn's gotta get fired. I don't want
45:13
Speaker 1: to be back in this team. So we're not putting
45:14
Speaker 1: the Falcons in. So I gotta say, like that, that's
45:18
Speaker 1: exactly it. Like the Falcons are the exact team we
45:21
Speaker 1: should be betting right now. But they are just not
45:24
Speaker 1: a team you can never back. There's there. They've just
45:27
Speaker 1: proven to be unbackable. So we gotta we gotta walk
45:31
Speaker 1: away from that. And so what we got to decide
45:32
Speaker 1: on right now, right now. The teams we've listed are
45:37
Speaker 1: the Browns, who are a four and a half uh
45:44
Speaker 1: point underdog at Dallas. The Bears plus two and a
45:49
Speaker 1: half at home. That's a no brainer. We're doing that.
45:52
Speaker 1: Bears plus two and a half at home against the Colts.
45:54
Speaker 1: Cards minus three and a half on the road against Detroit.
45:58
Speaker 1: Love that. Dolphins last six and a half. Dolphins plus
46:02
Speaker 1: six and a half. Freaking love that that with Seattle
46:07
Speaker 1: coming across the country. Yes, please, as long as they
46:10
Speaker 1: have for their full complemented players. You got to check
46:12
Speaker 1: on the injury report again. We will update all this.
46:16
Speaker 1: Check it out of the Action Network Gap, the Free
46:18
Speaker 1: Action Network Gap, that's where you can follow Simon's picks.
46:21
Speaker 1: That's where you can see what we do. We are
46:23
Speaker 1: laying the groundwork establishing our menu Sunday morning, we choose,
46:27
Speaker 1: we put it in the app, we'll tweet it out.
46:29
Speaker 1: Raiders plus three, Yeah, Eagles plus seven. That is like
46:38
Speaker 1: a complement of six right now, of which we will
46:40
Speaker 1: choose five. I like all them. I like all of them,
46:44
Speaker 1: and we can just do it real quick. So for
46:46
Speaker 1: our Survivor contest, yes, we had a good week. People
46:51
Speaker 1: for some reason, they didn't take the Colts and then
46:54
Speaker 1: end up taking the Cardinals, and a couple of people
46:57
Speaker 1: took the Saints, and some crazy reason, some people took
47:01
Speaker 1: their Ravens. So we're down to forty thousand out. So
47:07
Speaker 1: I put it on Twitter this morning how I couldn't
47:09
Speaker 1: see how we can't take the Ravens this week, and
47:12
Speaker 1: then I look in the app. We actually already took
47:14
Speaker 1: the Ravens week one. So the easy pick this week
47:18
Speaker 1: is definitely the Rams. Where the Giants are going there.
47:22
Speaker 1: The Rams need this when they're gonna bounce back. That
47:24
Speaker 1: should be a no sweat for us, even even if
47:27
Speaker 1: the Giants some up cover that number. I can't see
47:30
Speaker 1: this being under a touchdown for the Ram. So I
47:32
Speaker 1: love the Rams. Heuring our survival pool, all right, in
47:35
Speaker 1: our Draft King Survivor pool, there are left out of
47:40
Speaker 1: five hundred thousand that started. We are going to be
47:42
Speaker 1: on the rams this week. We continue to thrive and
47:45
Speaker 1: survive the six picks again, we're gonna be choosing from
47:49
Speaker 1: Browns plus four and a half, Bears plus two and
47:52
Speaker 1: a half, Cards minus three and a half, Dolphins plus
47:54
Speaker 1: six and a half, Raiders plus three, Eagles plus seven.
47:57
Speaker 1: I'm throwing up in my mouth as I read these back,
48:00
Speaker 1: thinking about how miserable Sunday is going to be. Uh
48:04
Speaker 1: As I tracked these and I'm texting you looking for
48:07
Speaker 1: desperate relief, Simon, That's what I'm thinking about. Can wait?
48:11
Speaker 1: It's what's the best part of my Sunday is getting
48:13
Speaker 1: ripped on by you and a couple other people on
48:15
Speaker 1: They're just like, are we gonna do this? And I'm
48:17
Speaker 1: just like, I hope, man. I wish I knew the future,
48:19
Speaker 1: but no, I like this week. I've a couple of
48:23
Speaker 1: people have asked why we haven't used bye weeks yet
48:26
Speaker 1: in a normal thing. If we were doing a podcast
48:28
Speaker 1: like we talked about, we would have used these. We
48:30
Speaker 1: would have used one of these bye weeks by now,
48:31
Speaker 1: just because it's early in the year. We're building data.
48:33
Speaker 1: We're both guys who use numbers. We're not just stomach better.
48:36
Speaker 1: It's like betting with our guts. So I wouldn't be
48:41
Speaker 1: against using it this week, but I kind of do
48:43
Speaker 1: want to start saving them now, especially with all this
48:45
Speaker 1: stuff going with COVID. It's like maybe in the next
48:48
Speaker 1: couple of weeks if things actually do kind of get
48:51
Speaker 1: game like games getting set here and there, we're not
48:53
Speaker 1: getting as much value because there's less schemes on the
48:54
Speaker 1: board we can pick and choose. But for right now,
48:57
Speaker 1: we're not gonna use the bye week this week. That
49:00
Speaker 1: is the game strategy that we need you for. Simon Hunter, Okay,
49:04
Speaker 1: it's time to announce the winner of the Phrase that Pays.
49:08
Speaker 1: Last week, we as fans to rate and review the podcast.
49:10
Speaker 1: Those who did and use the winning phrase in the
49:12
Speaker 1: review were eligible to fin to winning Free Action Network Putty.
49:16
Speaker 1: We had loads and loads of reviews. Thank you for that.
49:19
Speaker 1: And then the second we're going to reveal the winner.
49:20
Speaker 1: But first also we remember we remember, remember we are
49:25
Speaker 1: doing another phrase that pays contest. Go rate and review
49:29
Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase. Simon says, we bounced back
49:32
Speaker 1: and we will randomly choose the winner to get a
49:34
Speaker 1: free Action Network puldy. The winner of last week's contest,
49:38
Speaker 1: winning and Action Network pretty is Mike. I don't mean
49:43
Speaker 1: like George W. I mean like d U b y
49:45
Speaker 1: A thank you, Mike W. Simon says, let's bounce back
49:49
Speaker 1: exclamation point. After a white hot start at the NFL season,
49:52
Speaker 1: Simon and Chat had navigated a land mine field week
49:55
Speaker 1: to admirably. This is a great podcast that is flourishing
49:59
Speaker 1: against all despite the absence of celebrated author and bookmaker
50:03
Speaker 1: to the world Bob Scucci. Is a must listen for
50:06
Speaker 1: NFL fans where they're commuting to work working from home.
50:09
Speaker 1: I'm just crushing it on the racks during a normal
50:13
Speaker 1: leg day. I love Mike W. I love his spirit,
50:17
Speaker 1: I love his commitment, I love his attitude. I love
50:19
Speaker 1: that he crushes the racks on leg day. I love
50:21
Speaker 1: that he does leg day. Simon, take goodbye to our friends.
50:25
Speaker 1: Goodbye Mike. If you're listening to us while you work out,
50:28
Speaker 1: thanks man. I don't know how people donna listen to music.
50:30
Speaker 1: That's that's really that's something. Mike W is vaulting to
50:33
Speaker 1: number one in my hearts and minds. All right, listen,
50:36
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Action Network. Download
50:40
Speaker 1: the podcast wherever you get your podcast, Apple, Spotify, anywhere,
50:45
Speaker 1: anywhere at all. Until next time you