Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Vance, Caine express 'hard truths' to Trump over Iran

Transcript

Vance, Caine express 'hard truths' to Trump over Iran · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The US in Iran have so far paused strikes for
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: the third day in a row no strikes from either
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: side after nearly two straight weeks of nightly bombing. And
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: this comes as US officials, including the Chairman of the
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kine, are warning about
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the dwindling supply of US air defense munitions. The US
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Ambassador to the United Nations also weighing in, saying President
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Trump is giving diplomatic effort a chance.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: What the President is doing right now, as we've seen
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: all along, is giving some talks.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: Some space talks are ongoing. They're happening at every level.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Seene In Zach Cohen is joining me now, Zach. He
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: also said that the US Ambassador to the UN that
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: the troops have all they need when it comes to
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: this fight with the run. But we're hearing about these
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: dwindling munitions. What's the sense of what's going on here, Zach.
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: Yes, Sir Inbassor Waltz did say that the US has
• 0:59
  Speaker 4: all the munitions needs, but that does not line up
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: with what we've been reporting. Frankly since back in April,
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: when analysts and Pentagon data has shown that the Pentagon's
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: munition stockpile and including these key missile defense systems are
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: running low because of the high frequency with which they're
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: being used during this war with Iran. And while the
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: White House and the Trump administration is arguing that this
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: temporary pause over the last three days is intended to
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: give space for diplomacy, we've learned new details about a
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: consequential meeting that took place at the White House on Friday,
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: when discussions were being had about potentially escalating the conflict
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: with Iran. All of the president's top advisors were in
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: the room, were told and there were some hard truths
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: laid out for the President by both Vice President Jade
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Kin, both
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: of them warning about potential concerns related to the options
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: for escalating this conflict. And Kane in particular pointed to
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: these warnings about the US's diminishing stockpile of key munitions,
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: saying that if the US continues to use them at
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: the clip that they've been using them so far in
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: this conflict, they may not have enough for the next war,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: especially if it's against an adversary like China or Russia. Now,
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: this is just one of the concerns we're told that
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: was raised during this meeting on Friday that ultimately preceded
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: the ongoing temporary pause. The other concerns that were raised
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: included potentially massive amounts of civilian casualties inside Iran if
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: the US were to follow through with Trump's threat to
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: strike civilian infrastructure, things like power plants and bridges, things
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: of that nature. We're also told that concerns about retaliation
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: against golf, energy infrastructure, and a broader regional escalation we're
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: also mentioned. So ultimately those concerns all taken into account,
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: seem to have led to this current pause. But there's
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: still so many questions about whether or not diplomacy can
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: ultimately get back on track and bring an end to
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: this war.
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: But this reporting that CNN has I was just speaking
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: about with Betsy about the concern raised by Vice President
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: Vance and General Kin concerned specifically about munition stockpiles, and
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Wall in part was blaming that on a that the
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: US has given to Ukraine. A. It doesn't seem like
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: it's that simple, but I'll let you answer that question.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: But b what does this tell you about the overall
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: impact on US military readiness?
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: Well, there's certainly an impact EERICA on US military readiness,
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: no doubt about it. But let's put things into perspective.
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: But when you look at the expenditure of Patriot missile
• 3:31
  Speaker 6: munitions in Ukraine, you're talking in the hundreds of Patriot
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: missiles that the Pac three type missiles that the Ukrainians
• 3:40
  Speaker 6: have used. Compare that to as many as fourteen and
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: thirty Patriot missiles that were sent off in the war
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: against Iran. So the US itself has used a considerable
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: number of munitions in this Iran conflict, Operation Epic Fury
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: and both pre and subsequent and operations. So we really
• 4:03
  Speaker 6: have to figure out the defense industrial base in this country.
• 4:06
  Speaker 6: There are serious concerns. General Kine and the Vice President
• 4:09
  Speaker 6: are absolutely right about that. The key question though, is
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: that we have a long lead time and putting all
• 4:16
  Speaker 6: these weapons systems together, building them, manufacturing them, getting money
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: allocated for them, and then of course finally getting them
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: into the field. So those are the kinds of things
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: that have to be fixed. The Pentagon is making strikes
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: in that direction. But the key thing here is also this.
• 4:32
  Speaker 6: The are efforts under the Biden administration and before even
• 4:36
  Speaker 6: the first Trump administration to do some of this, but
• 4:39
  Speaker 6: there have been some hold ups, you know, some of
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: them congressionally induced, some of them bureaucratic inertia that have
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: prevented that. If the US had decided to focus on Ukraine,
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: for example, instead of Iran, we probably wouldn't be in
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: this situation to talk.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: About where things stand then now with CNN Global Affairs
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: analyst Brett mcgirky is also also the author of the
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: new book coming out Brink Inside the Race to Free
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: the October Hostages. It's good to see you, Thanks for
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: being here. So let's talk about they're in a pause
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: moment that seems to be I think the only clear
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: thing when it comes to the status of this war,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: because two weeks of US bombing's bombing runs on Iran
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: have seemed to fail to break the deadlock over the
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: straight ofform mouse still and now you have reporting that
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: there's this concern that was raised this week about further
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: depleting munition stockpiles. If the President escalates this further, how
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: do they navigate a path forward? Now, Bret, what do
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: you see here?
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Kate?
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: It's tough.
• 5:37
  Speaker 7: You know, five months tomorrow will be the five month
• 5:40
  Speaker 7: mark of when this conflict started, and I had a
• 5:43
  Speaker 7: saying when I used to work in the White House
• 5:45
  Speaker 7: for various presidents from General Eisenhower when he was president.
• 5:48
  Speaker 7: He used to say, before we talk about decisive military action,
• 5:51
  Speaker 7: layout all the facts, cold and hard. And it appears
• 5:55
  Speaker 7: from the reporting from CNN and elsewhere that this meeting
• 5:57
  Speaker 7: late last week did that and said, here are all
• 6:00
  Speaker 7: the factors as we consider next steps. That's good, That's
• 6:03
  Speaker 7: exactly the type of information president should be getting. It's
• 6:06
  Speaker 7: probably the type of meeting that should have been had
• 6:08
  Speaker 7: before this started. But where are we now? I would
• 6:10
  Speaker 7: call this, Kate, a tactical pause. I think we had
• 6:13
  Speaker 7: thirteen nights of strikes their back channels open through Aman
• 6:17
  Speaker 7: in order to try to get the straight back to
• 6:19
  Speaker 7: where it was before those strikes started two weeks ago,
• 6:22
  Speaker 7: and that I'm told that making some progress. So tactical pause,
• 6:27
  Speaker 7: Let's see where we are. See if diplomas you can
• 6:28
  Speaker 7: get somewhere. But otherwise we're still kind of stuck because
• 6:31
  Speaker 7: the key variable remains the straight of hor Mooz. And
• 6:36
  Speaker 7: if Iran is not going to is going to maintain
• 6:39
  Speaker 7: that the straight of Hormoves is it's sovereign territory. It
• 6:41
  Speaker 7: controls what goes through the strait. I don't see Washington
• 6:45
  Speaker 7: accepting that, nor do the Gulf States accept that, and
• 6:47
  Speaker 7: therefore you're kind of stuck. So it's a big week.
• 6:50
  Speaker 7: K We got visits coming up to Washington, that yaw
• 6:53
  Speaker 7: who's here, as Olinski's here. We'll see the diplomacy go.
• 6:56
  Speaker 7: But right now, tactical pause.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Where do you think things stand right now? And do
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: you think that this pause and the strikes could perhaps
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: lead to some diplomatic progress.
• 7:08
  Speaker 8: The pause and the strikes, of course is welcome, particularly
• 7:12
  Speaker 8: for people civilians who are caught in this war. It
• 7:16
  Speaker 8: is an indication that the US administration wants to give
• 7:21
  Speaker 8: talks a chance to succeed, and they have said that
• 7:25
  Speaker 8: holding back is giving the diplomats that chance.
• 7:29
  Speaker 9: However, the Iranian side has clearly.
• 7:33
  Speaker 8: Activated the Hothy militants in Yemen when the war started
• 7:37
  Speaker 8: in February.
• 7:38
  Speaker 9: The Hosies largely have stayed out of it.
• 7:41
  Speaker 8: This goes back to the Iranian playbook, which is to
• 7:44
  Speaker 8: use different proxies at different times to exert pressure.
• 7:48
  Speaker 9: And this is more familiar territory for the Iranians.
• 7:51
  Speaker 8: Usually they would not get so directly involved in conflict
• 7:55
  Speaker 8: that have one of their proxies really applied pressure, which
• 7:58
  Speaker 8: is what we're seeing the Hothies trying to do.
• 8:00
  Speaker 9: But also we have a couple of militant.
• 8:03
  Speaker 8: Groups inside of Iraq also now saying that they will
• 8:06
  Speaker 8: enter the phrase. So it's a very cautious moment to
• 8:11
  Speaker 8: say that we are at.
• 8:13
  Speaker 9: Returned to the ceasefire.
• 8:15
  Speaker 8: Not fully there yet, but it has been good to
• 8:17
  Speaker 8: see three nights of no direct military action from American
• 8:21
  Speaker 8: side or the Aanian side.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I'm so glad you mentioned the civilians too
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: on our sides here, especially when we're just seeing one
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: escalation after another for nearly two weeks. So then, in
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: your view and your assessment, how long do you think
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: this pause is likely to last.
• 8:40
  Speaker 8: Well, the pause will last as long as there is
• 8:43
  Speaker 8: hope for the talks to change the dynamic. The concern
• 8:47
  Speaker 8: is that the pause only then allows one side or
• 8:50
  Speaker 8: the other to drag it out. There is very little
• 8:53
  Speaker 8: trust from the Gulf here, from the wider hour world
• 8:57
  Speaker 8: and the US when it comes to this curiousness of
• 9:00
  Speaker 8: the Iranian side to actually bring about a diplomatic resolution.
• 9:05
  Speaker 9: So with very little trust.
• 9:06
  Speaker 8: We don't know how long this can last before again,
• 9:09
  Speaker 8: this last flare up started because Iran targeted vessels in
• 9:14
  Speaker 8: the Strait of Hormos. So as long as there can
• 9:17
  Speaker 8: be an agreement not to escalate, Let's not forget we're
• 9:20
  Speaker 8: still in the sixty day window that ends on the
• 9:23
  Speaker 8: seventeenth of August that was set by the Memorandum of
• 9:26
  Speaker 8: Understanding to get to a longer term deal. We're nowhere
• 9:29
  Speaker 8: near getting to that longer term agreement and deal, and
• 9:33
  Speaker 8: so how long it lasts will depend on how serious
• 9:37
  Speaker 8: all sides are, and particularly where the Iranians will stick
• 9:41
  Speaker 8: to what they signed up to the Memorandum of Understanding,
• 9:43
  Speaker 8: which is to allow the freedom of navigation and the
• 9:46
  Speaker 8: Strait of Hormos.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: And it will soon now be what now five months,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: sayce both the US and Israel carried out those initial
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: rounds of attacks starting this conflict. And I say this
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: because soon we'll see those two leaders of those two
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: countries meeting again. Is really Prime Minister Begom Manager Yahoo
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: heading back to Washington meeting with President Trump? You know
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: what will you be looking out for as these two
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: leaders meet, And I'm sure what happens in that meeting
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: will largely determine what the next chapter in this conflict
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: may be.
• 10:19
  Speaker 8: Absolutely it will be important to see what they come
• 10:22
  Speaker 8: out with in terms of statements, but also what is
• 10:26
  Speaker 8: the strategy when it comes for the American interests in
• 10:30
  Speaker 8: this war not necessarily the same as the interests of
• 10:33
  Speaker 8: Israel and particularly Prime Minister Natania, who of course is
• 10:36
  Speaker 8: always thinking about the next elections and what would suit
• 10:40
  Speaker 8: him best as a wartime prime minister of Israel.
• 10:43
  Speaker 9: So it will be.
• 10:44
  Speaker 8: Important to see not only how they deal with Iran,
• 10:47
  Speaker 8: but also Lebanon has been incredibly important. President Trump just
• 10:52
  Speaker 8: received the President of Lebanon, Joseph All in the White House,
• 10:56
  Speaker 8: and the Lebanese desperately want to see Israel draw from
• 11:00
  Speaker 8: Lebanese territories but also.
• 11:02
  Speaker 9: To have peace come back to Lebanon.
• 11:04
  Speaker 8: So I think the Lebanon element will be important, But
• 11:06
  Speaker 8: of course the bigger agenda item is Iran. Palestine unfortunately
• 11:11
  Speaker 8: will likely not really be top of the agenda in
• 11:14
  Speaker 8: these meetings, but it is important to the wider dynamic
• 11:17
  Speaker 8: in this region. When it comes to Iran, premise to
• 11:20
  Speaker 8: Tahu has been very hawkish, whereas we've seen that President
• 11:23
  Speaker 8: Trump is keen to get to a diplomatic resolution.
• 11:26
  Speaker 9: We've seen them have disagreements before. It would be interesting
• 11:29
  Speaker 9: to
• 11:29
  Speaker 8: See how they come out of these meetings and whether
• 11:32
  Speaker 8: again American interests to bring about diplomatic resolution will match
• 11:36
  Speaker 8: what Prime Minister Nataniahu will be advocating for during those
• 11:40
  Speaker 8: meetings