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Transcript

Cattle: Report Day · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the professional anything marketing.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss, and it's not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Meyer.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: July 25th, and I have Nick Bork with me here today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: How are you doing, Nick?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_02: Great.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: How are you, Jane?
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: I'm doing great too.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: Today we're gonna talk about two cattle reports today.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_02: And Nick thoughts on them.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'll kind of just get started here, Jane.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: We did have the normal monthly cattle and feed report here today.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: We also had the cattle inventory report, which um is a biannual report.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Last year they skipped the July report, and so this year um they they had that report again, but it's actually compared to two years ago because that was the last time that we had a July cattle inventory report.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: But kind of getting into the cattle and feed report today, it was um quite bullish.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, even are all three categories the on-feed number, the placements, and the marketings were all less than the the lowest range of estimates.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: So that was pretty interesting.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I think I don't think anybody, obviously, none of the analysts that that put estimates together for this report were even even really close to what uh what the what the actual report showed.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: The on-feed number came in at 98.4% um of a year ago.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: The the range of estimates for that was 99 to 100%.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Placements came in at 92.1%, the range of estimates there was 96.8 to 101, and then marketings came in at 95.6%, and the range of estimates there was 95.9 to 96.9.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And uh on feed last month was 98.8%, so about four-tenths of a point lower than last month, even.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: But but as we look forward here, I think when you dissect the placement data out, um, you look forward here August through October, we normally have a normal seasonal decline in in supply numbers, and then which is not unique this year, but then we all three of those months now are about a hundred thousand head less uh than a year ago for for what were expected for supply for those months.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: So aside from any carryover cattle, which we don't think there's an exorbitant amount of those, um uh we're certainly gonna have lower supplies here coming forward.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be really interesting what the supply does uh or excuse me, what cash does here in the coming weeks, given given how bullish this report is and and what uh what that supply picture looks like.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um we certainly would expect that um you know that they're gonna they're gonna be buying a little ways out here.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: And and uh, you know, we've been fairly up a little bit this week, but otherwise fairly steady on cash.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And uh so very bullish report there on the Catlin feed uh side of things.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Getting into the um the Catal Inventory report again, that's a bi-annual report.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: That also not any two major alarms there, I guess.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um all Catlin calves on feed came in at 98 or excuse me, 98.7 percent, and the estimate was for 98.1.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then on the calf crop, that actual the actual report was 98.6, and the estimate was 97.8.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: So uh those numbers were actually a little bit higher than what the expectations was.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna, you know, we'll get into that report a little bit and kind of pump out a a uh kind of a forecasted supply for for 2026 based on those calf crop numbers and based on our heifer retention.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be kind of dissecting that over the next few weeks.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: But uh other than that, two big time bullish reports here this week.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for your input, Nick.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professional eggmarketing.com.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: See you in the next time.