Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 407 - 12/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 407 - 12/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:14
  Hello and welcome to. Episode 4 O.
• 0:17
  Seven of the all. Systems go sports betting.
• 0:20
  Podcast powered by. Rhythm, I'm your host.
• 0:24
  Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:31
  Happy Wednesday, it's officially hump day.
• 0:33
  First week in December. Guys, halfway.
• 0:35
  Through our work. Week 1 day away.
• 0:37
  From NFL Thursday Night Football.
• 0:40
  Looking at this Dallas. Detroit.
• 0:41
  Number. I'm actually kicking myself.
• 0:43
  I didn't grab Dallas plus 3 1/2. We did see that line.
• 0:46
  Open as high as Detroit. -5 1/2 got down to 3 1/2 now it's down
• 0:51
  to three. That total did tick up a bit,
• 0:53
  50. 3 1/2 up to. 5450. 4 1/2. We do have some.
• 0:56
  Cowboys. Primetime dogs.
• 0:58
  Dog missed. The postseason versus a favorite
• 1:00
  who made the postseason. That's 58% against the spread
• 1:03
  this season. So seeing if maybe a hook can
• 1:05
  reappear, but I'll have the full breakdown for that game coming
• 1:08
  up. For tomorrow, but looking.
• 1:10
  Toward today guys. 4 pack of plays for you.
• 1:13
  I got 3 college basketball sweats.
• 1:15
  Including one that hopefully. You read the Sharp report that I
• 1:17
  wrote for visen.com earlier today?
• 1:20
  Or maybe. You signed up to.
• 1:21
  Get the all Systems go official best bet picks from.
• 1:23
  Juice Rail because we're getting some good.
• 1:25
  CLV on this one. Again, doesn't guarantee a win.
• 1:27
  But good sign. If you bet it early and then a
• 1:30
  game. That's a little bit over
• 1:32
  underlooked or overlooked I should say with a good.
• 1:35
  Sharp mush edge and then a late night.
• 1:37
  Sweat and college. Basketball as well, so 3 college
• 1:39
  hoops plays. One NBA play landed on a player.
• 1:43
  Prop in a game. With a very.
• 1:44
  Very high total or this player is expected to go.
• 1:47
  Around four or five points, rebounds and assists over.
• 1:51
  The current market number, which is again is a good.
• 1:54
  Recommended play here from our. Friends at Rhythm.
• 1:56
  And then I want to talk about one NFL.
• 1:58
  Play. It's coming up.
• 1:59
  For. This weekend here guys.
• 2:00
  I'm looking at the board and there's a few.
• 2:02
  Games that are. Hanging around three 3 1/2.
• 2:04
  You know, if you want to. Get the hook, you better grab
• 2:06
  it. Right now so.
• 2:07
  There's one in particular where I'm thinking we should jump on
• 2:09
  it, and I'll give you that breakdown here later in today's
• 2:12
  podcast. So 4 pack college basketball.
• 2:15
  NBA and one NFL. Play for this weekend.
• 2:18
  Now looking back to our last night 2 and 3. -1.4 units.
• 2:22
  Had a couple great hits. The Boston Celtics came through.
• 2:24
  They almost. Coughed it up.
• 2:25
  For us. Because they're up by like 20
• 2:27
  points on that one. Point McHale Bridges just kept
• 2:29
  hitting threes and it was like a four point game.
• 2:32
  But luckily, if you watch that game, Jordan Walsh.
• 2:35
  Had a couple huge. Plays to get us the winner
• 2:36
  there. And then Notre Dame late the
• 2:38
  Irish, they're down, then they're up, then they're down.
• 2:41
  Then they came back. Kid hit a huge three late.
• 2:43
  So the Irish came through against Mizzou.
• 2:46
  But unfortunately, one that really was.
• 2:48
  Frustrating to me or a. Couple, at least Marvin.
• 2:50
  Bagley Under. 7 1/2. Rebounds he.
• 2:53
  Ended up landing on. 8 So again, you lose a, you know, a prop.
• 2:56
  By by 1 rebound frustrating. South Carolina was annoying.
• 3:00
  Because they really battled. And they?
• 3:03
  Actually had the ball. In their hands.
• 3:05
  About I. Don't know, 1015 seconds left.
• 3:08
  Tied game, they can walk off and.
• 3:10
  Win it and this. Idiot point guard just dribbles.
• 3:13
  To Infinity and doesn't. Even get a shot off.
• 3:15
  And then of course, they lose in overtime.
• 3:17
  So that was frustrating. And then?
• 3:18
  Kansas most heavily. Back in the night, public all
• 3:21
  over UConn. Tip my cap.
• 3:22
  Call the public. Our daddy because Kansas they.
• 3:25
  Played great in the first half they actually.
• 3:27
  Had a lead. Then then they went ice cold in
• 3:28
  the second-half, only shot 25. Percent from the field end up
• 3:32
  losing the game by 5, so again, some of these breaks not going
• 3:35
  our way but. As always guys, not.
• 3:37
  Going to get down, not going to punch a hole in the wall.
• 3:39
  Or smash our TV. Just going to keep on grinding,
• 3:42
  see if we can turn a profit and eke out a winning night for
• 3:45
  tonight. Now I.
• 3:46
  Want to start? Off for tonight, some college
• 3:48
  basketball. Because there's a game I was.
• 3:50
  Kind of hinting at a second ago. With some good closing line
• 3:52
  value. Let's let's talk about it right
• 3:54
  now because. It is one of the most.
• 3:56
  Heavily backed games of the night.
• 3:58
  Louisville and Arkansas. Should be a great match up here.
• 4:01
  7:15 PM. Eastern Time tip.
• 4:03
  Off This is also an ESPN game. And it's pretty sharp.
• 4:06
  So let's set the stage here. Louisville comes in.
• 4:09
  Or Louisville, as you're supposed.
• 4:10
  To say I'm a Northerner Yankee, so I say it.
• 4:12
  Wrong, but Louisville 4. 7 and O on.
• 4:15
  The year ranked 6th in the country.
• 4:17
  Have a Really. Good team once again.
• 4:18
  Demolished NJIT. Poor little.
• 4:20
  NJIT beat them one. O 4 to 40. 7.
• 4:24
  Who laid the 40? Five.
• 4:25
  There they covered the 40. Five Point Home spread.
• 4:28
  On the other hand, Arkansas 5:00 and 2:00.
• 4:29
  Coach Cal's team. Is ranked 25th.
• 4:32
  They just had a four-game win streak come to an.
• 4:34
  End they lost to. Duke, 80 to 70.
• 4:35
  One did cover though as an 11 point.
• 4:37
  Neutral sight dog so. What are you seeing across the
• 4:40
  market here? Well, this game open Louisville
• 4:42
  listed as a 3 1/2. Point Rd.
• 4:44
  Favorite. Is a true home game for Arkansas
• 4:46
  and the public says hey, no problem there.
• 4:49
  Louisville is undefeated, ranked 6th.
• 4:51
  They can easily cover this number, however, even though
• 4:54
  you're getting nearly 2/3 of. Spread bets at DraftKings Lane
• 4:57
  with the Cardinals. We've actually seen this line
• 4:59
  dip. Down.
• 5:00
  To now Louisville -2 1/2. Now, when I was writing about
• 5:04
  this game and. I put it in the app.
• 5:06
  I was able to get Louisville. Or, sorry, Arkansas Plus. 3 1/2.
• 5:10
  Because Louisville Open minus. 3 1/2.
• 5:12
  At one point they. Got down to 2 and a.
• 5:13
  Half then. It came back up to 3 1/2.
• 5:15
  I said. Oh.
• 5:16
  All movement liability seems to be on the.
• 5:18
  Arkansas side plus the. Points.
• 5:20
  So might as well. Grab it.
• 5:21
  And I'm glad I did. Hope you guys did too because.
• 5:24
  If you've got 3 1/2, it is now down to. 2 1/2 So it tells us
• 5:27
  that we are. On the right side of this one.
• 5:29
  Hopefully will end up being a winner for us again the.
• 5:31
  Good thing is, if you bet it already, you're getting good
• 5:33
  CLV. The bad thing is if you.
• 5:35
  Haven't played it yet. Now the best line it looks like.
• 5:37
  Is your 2 1/2? Year but reading between the
• 5:39
  lines it. Was.
• 5:40
  Kind of a line freeze play. Now it's a.
• 5:42
  True reverse line move. Remember, RLM is on, the betting
• 5:45
  line goes away. From the popular side,
• 5:46
  Louisville toward the unpopular side, Arkansas.
• 5:49
  So even if you don't. Have this line freeze RLM.
• 5:52
  Just a really good contrarian. Play because Arkansas is only
• 5:55
  getting about 1/3 of. Tickets in the most heavily
• 5:57
  backed game of the night. Primetime ESPN and.
• 5:59
  Only about 1/3 of tickets, but nearly half the.
• 6:01
  Money at DK. Is on Arkansas so a little bit
• 6:04
  low bets higher dollars sharp split.
• 6:06
  We also look at Ken Palm. He has.
• 6:08
  Louisville winning by three. Points. 74 to 71.
• 6:12
  Which at the time told me, hey, might as well get that 3 1/2
• 6:15
  before it falls because if Ken Palm is right on the dot.
• 6:18
  You cover with the hook there. And then also some home Rd.
• 6:21
  Stuff, I mean, Louisville's great team look to be a really
• 6:23
  good. Team this year, but.
• 6:24
  They're playing their. First true Rd. game.
• 6:26
  Meanwhile, Arkansas has five and O at home.
• 6:28
  So again, I'm excited because I got plus 3 1/2 Arkansas.
• 6:31
  Now it's down. To two and a.
• 6:32
  Half if you. Haven't played it yet.
• 6:34
  I mean, you might want. To either grab the. 2 1/2 or.
• 6:37
  I'm thinking hey does. This even get down to two I see
• 6:39
  a couple shops juice toward 2/2 and. 1/2 might be your best
• 6:43
  number. Wouldn't.
• 6:43
  It be nice if. Arkansas won the game.
• 6:45
  Outright and everyone's happy, but I am on.
• 6:47
  Arkansas Plus 3 1/2. Again, looks like 2 1/2 now is
• 6:51
  your best price. Next one for you. 9:00 PM game
• 6:54
  here. Now and.
• 6:55
  Tell me if you know the mascots for these teams.
• 6:57
  Saint Thomas and Montana. State.
• 7:00
  Now. To me, if you.
• 7:01
  Can't name the mascots. Of the teams that.
• 7:03
  Just tells me automatically. That it is a.
• 7:05
  Low back game public really doesn't care about.
• 7:08
  It but anytime we see a line. Move.
• 7:10
  That's something that gets. Us pretty excited and this
• 7:12
  one's. Interesting too, because it's
• 7:13
  fishy and. Doesn't really make much.
• 7:15
  Sense, by the way, if you didn't know.
• 7:17
  Saint Thomas. They are the Tommies.
• 7:20
  They're from Minnesota and. Montana State, The Bobcats.
• 7:22
  But anyway, setting the stage for this one.
• 7:24
  Saint Thomas is 6 and 3. They've won two in a row.
• 7:27
  They just beat up on Lawrence, 87 to 52.
• 7:30
  I couldn't. Even find a.
• 7:30
  Spread for that game. It was so, you know, obscure on.
• 7:33
  The other hand, Montana. State they're three and five
• 7:36
  just had their. Two game win streak come when
• 7:37
  they. Lost to Utah State. 84 to 81 in
• 7:40
  overtime, but Utah. State I believe is. 7 and O
• 7:43
  undefeated. And I want to say.
• 7:44
  They're getting like 17. Points in that one.
• 7:46
  Anyway. This game open Montana State
• 7:48
  listed as a 2 1/2. Point home favorite.
• 7:50
  Let's stop right there. Does that sound fishy?
• 7:53
  If Saint Thomas is 6 and. Three and Montana State is 3 and
• 7:57
  5. Even if you.
• 7:58
  Factor in homecourt Why is? Montana State favored by 2 1/2.
• 8:02
  So right off the bat. I want to embrace that fishy.
• 8:05
  Angle. You know, like if this open.
• 8:07
  Saint Thomas -2 1/2. I know the sharps would
• 8:09
  disagree, but what would the? Public think they'd probably
• 8:11
  think it's the right. Number.
• 8:12
  But why? Is a below. 500 team favorite.
• 8:15
  Over and above 5. 100 team even with homecourt.
• 8:17
  It looks like pros have embraced the fishy side.
• 8:20
  Because Montana State. Has gotten steamed up a bit.
• 8:22
  They open minus. 2 1/2 They're now up to minus. 3 Some shops
• 8:25
  even. Touching as high as -3 1/2.
• 8:28
  So one way movement here in favor of Montana State.
• 8:31
  Now it's a low back game, but at DraftKings. 64.
• 8:34
  Percent of spread bets 90% of spread.
• 8:37
  Dollars on Montana State. Ken Palm, you're going to like.
• 8:40
  This he has Montana State. Winning the game by.
• 8:42
  Four points. So if you.
• 8:43
  Want to lay the? You know. 2 1/2.
• 8:44
  Three. 3 1/2. Technically that.
• 8:46
  Would cover for you. But I went money line here, I
• 8:49
  got Montana State on the money line at -155 don't has.
• 8:52
  Come down a little. Bit so you.
• 8:53
  Believe you can get Montana State.
• 8:55
  Now as low as -140 on the money line.
• 8:57
  But listen to these money. Line splits.
• 8:59
  For the Bobcats, 58% bets. 82% dollars.
• 9:03
  Tells me the big pro money here is going with Montana State and
• 9:06
  the points or sorry Montana State just to win the game.
• 9:10
  Then you look at Montana. State better offensive.
• 9:12
  Efficiency 178th. Versus 186th.
• 9:15
  Better defensive efficiency 163rd versus 183rd.
• 9:19
  And offensive rebound percentage 25% versus only 18%.
• 9:23
  Lastly, I popped open. Our friends at Rhythm.
• 9:26
  Or sorry, Juice Reel, I noticed a 50% big #5-O50.
• 9:30
  Percent sharp mush. Edge on Montana State.
• 9:33
  So it's a low back game. Public doesn't care much about
• 9:36
  this. One but the.
• 9:36
  Lions movement toward Montana State Ken Palms got.
• 9:39
  Him by 4I money lined. The Bobcats to win this game
• 9:42
  again -1. 55. That's what I got.
• 9:44
  But you can get as. Low as -140 Either way, let's.
• 9:47
  Win the damn game. Montana State.
• 9:49
  Now, last bat of the night. Now let's.
• 9:52
  Talk about UCLA. And Washington, last game, last
• 9:56
  bet for me and last game of the night. 11:00.
• 9:58
  Eastern Time so. Put on a Put on a pot of coffee
• 10:00
  and stay up and sweat this one with me if you're.
• 10:03
  Interested. But anyway, UCLA.
• 10:04
  Comes in five and two. They just had their.
• 10:06
  Two game win streak come to an end.
• 10:08
  They lost a Cal. 80 to 72, they're actually.
• 10:10
  Favored by 8 1/2 in that one. On a neutral.
• 10:13
  Site lost outright meanwhile. Washington, 5:00 and 2:00.
• 10:16
  Had their. Three-game win streak.
• 10:17
  Just come. To an end they.
• 10:18
  Lost to Colorado. 8168 they were.
• 10:20
  Favored by 4 1/2. On a neutral.
• 10:22
  Site and lost out right. What are we seeing seeing across
• 10:25
  the board? Well, this came open at a pick
• 10:27
  em. So anytime you look at a pick
• 10:29
  em, it's kind of like in. Baseball.
• 10:30
  You open as a. You know -110 both sides.
• 10:33
  Where does the line move? Because a lot of times either
• 10:35
  the sharpshoe. Again, have their numbers.
• 10:37
  Ready to go and they're going to.
• 10:38
  Look for discrepancies. They're going to hit something
• 10:40
  immediately because oh, this. Is a pick em, but I have this
• 10:43
  team favored by two or three or they're not going to play it cuz
• 10:46
  oh they have a pick em. I have the scheme as a pick em.
• 10:49
  There's no edge either way, but. We have seen this line move.
• 10:51
  Toward UCLAUCLA went from a pick.
• 10:55
  To -1 1/2 on the road and now these one and a halfs a.
• 10:57
  Lot of them are juiced up minus. 1 1/2 - 1. 15 So all movement
• 11:01
  and liability has been in favor of UC.
• 11:03
  LAUCLA is getting. Around 75% of bets in dollars,
• 11:07
  so kind of some pro and Joe action there in.
• 11:09
  Favor of the Bruins. Now Ken Palm.
• 11:11
  Does have UCLA? Winning but.
• 11:12
  Only by one point, so that's why I went money line here you.
• 11:15
  Can get UCLA at a pretty. Cheap -125 Protect yourself
• 11:19
  again. Open at a pick.
• 11:20
  Odds makers are saying it can be a very tight game, so if you.
• 11:24
  Look at the UCLA. DraftKings splits here.
• 11:27
  On the money line. 89% bets. 95% dollars.
• 11:31
  Good split there. UCLA also three day rest.
• 11:33
  Advantage. They played last on November
• 11:36
  25th. Washington played on November
• 11:37
  28th. Again, these kids are young.
• 11:39
  I always try to say this the the rest.
• 11:41
  Isn't the big thing. It's being in the.
• 11:42
  Gym watching the film. And if you're coming off a loss
• 11:45
  and extended break? You know, chomping at the bit or
• 11:48
  champing at the bit is actually how it's technically called,
• 11:50
  even though no one says that. But maybe that's a good
• 11:53
  advantage there to just want to get back out and get a.
• 11:55
  Win. UCLA does have the better.
• 11:57
  Offensive efficiency 60th versus 70. 2nd for Washington better.
• 12:02
  Defense efficiency 17th versus. 52nd Better effective.
• 12:05
  Field goal percentage 98th. Versus 226th so pick em game.
• 12:10
  Tipped up to UCLA, Ken. Palms got him by 1 extended
• 12:14
  break. Let's see if the Bruins can get
• 12:16
  a win for us. I got UCLA.
• 12:17
  Money line at minus. 125. South UCLA.
• 12:21
  And Montana State money lines And Arkansas.
• 12:23
  Hope you got the three and a. Half there now.
• 12:26
  Let's look toward an. NBA play for.
• 12:28
  Tonight, so I'm looking. For some revenge after Marvin
• 12:30
  Bagley just had to. Get one more rebound late in the
• 12:32
  fourth quarter, down by 20. That was frustrating.
• 12:35
  So he was sitting at 7:00 until deep in the 4th.
• 12:37
  But anyway. Trying to get back at it?
• 12:40
  Let's look toward a game. Here late, it is an 830 game
• 12:42
  between the Heat. And The Mavericks now?
• 12:45
  This is a little bit of movement.
• 12:47
  Toward the heat, they open like. -4 they're up to -5.
• 12:50
  And it's a very high total. 240 even 2. 40 1/2 so I'm thinking
• 12:54
  wow. This is going to be a high
• 12:55
  scoring game. It's a very high total, so
• 12:59
  wouldn't that? Be a good game to maybe target
• 13:00
  someone to go. Over their offensive props and I
• 13:04
  landed on. Believe it or not.
• 13:06
  You might have heard of this guy.
• 13:07
  Mr. Cooper, Flag. Probably going to.
• 13:10
  Be the Rookie of the Year. But I noticed with Rhythm Cooper
• 13:13
  flag had a nice recommended opportunity here.
• 13:16
  For his points, rebounds and assists now.
• 13:19
  Cooper. Flag over 27 1/2 points,
• 13:22
  rebounds and assists. So he's got a.
• 13:23
  Combine for. 28 or more rhythm is predicting 31.1.
• 13:29
  So nearly A3 four point rebound assist.
• 13:32
  Edge. Off of what?
• 13:34
  Obviously the the odds makers are offering here, so I'm like,
• 13:37
  OK. That makes a little sense.
• 13:39
  If we layer in a few. Things like about this.
• 13:41
  So it's a short spread, 5 point spread.
• 13:43
  Hopefully competitive highest. Total on the board.
• 13:46
  So hopefully a lot of points scored.
• 13:48
  Cooper flag has gone. Over this number in seven of his
• 13:51
  last 10. Games at home so.
• 13:52
  Seven and three to the over last 10 at home.
• 13:55
  There's also a plan Cooper flag getting better because if you
• 13:58
  look in. October he averaged 13.4 points.
• 14:02
  6.2. Rebounds 2.8.
• 14:04
  Assists. The month of November 17.8.
• 14:07
  Points 6. .7 Rebounds 3. .7 assists now.
• 14:11
  We're into. December, he's only.
• 14:12
  Played one game, nothing like his.
• 14:14
  You know, he's a young kid, but what is he, 19 years old?
• 14:16
  But he did play on Monday, so it's at least one day off.
• 14:20
  But he played one. Game in December. 24 points 8.
• 14:22
  Rebounds 2 assists. So he's been averaging.
• 14:26
  Basically just, you know, overall on the year.
• 14:30
  Let me. Get you the updated numbers.
• 14:33
  He is averaging 17 points 6.6 rebounds 3. .4 Assists.
• 14:37
  But again, it's. It's more of a plan is is
• 14:39
  getting more experience. And getting better.
• 14:41
  As the season progresses. Also, he's going up.
• 14:43
  Against the Heat team, that gives up 118.
• 14:45
  Points per game. Toward the.
• 14:46
  Bottom of the barrel. So I obviously have a very high
• 14:48
  total here. You look at a.
• 14:49
  Lot of heat. Box scores.
• 14:51
  I mean, man, I. Wish I just, you know, play heat
• 14:54
  overs here. 1:40 to. 123 one. 38130.
• 14:57
  Five, I mean, they're they're, they're hitting these overs here
• 14:59
  at. A pretty good rate, but the
• 15:02
  other thing like about Cooper flag.
• 15:03
  Is he leads his team in minutes? Per game.
• 15:06
  So he's averaging 30. 3.9. Minutes per game.
• 15:09
  Obviously if you have. A A bet on someone to go.
• 15:11
  Over their player prop. You need them to.
• 15:12
  Have enough? Game time to.
• 15:14
  Hopefully cash that. Price so he's.
• 15:16
  He's really trending up. It's a high total game.
• 15:19
  It's a short spread. Hopefully competitive he leads
• 15:21
  his. Team in minutes he's.
• 15:22
  Been getting better. Every game, every month again
• 15:25
  over 27 1/2 rhythm as 31 point. 1 So we only need 28.
• 15:30
  To cash this ticket. Lastly.
• 15:32
  Shop around Caesar's 27 1/2 / -, 121.
• 15:37
  The score. We used to be.
• 15:39
  ESPN Bet 20. Seven half over -125 DraftKings
• 15:42
  27 Half over -123 Fanatics over 27 half -120.
• 15:47
  Bet MGM is actually. At 28 1/2 -, 110, But FanDuel 27
• 15:52
  1/2 / - 1. 14 your lowest. Price there, so I'm going to
• 15:56
  sweat. Cooper flag over. 27.
• 15:59
  And a half points, rebounds and assists.
• 16:02
  Now 1 little. Bit here for the upcoming NFL
• 16:05
  Week 14 slate it is. The Sunday football.
• 16:08
  Game so I'm looking. At the board.
• 16:10
  Again, I'm seeing if. I'm trying to get Dallas +3.
• 16:13
  And a half I. Don't know if I'm going to get
• 16:15
  it. I actually wish I jumped on a
• 16:16
  little bit earlier. That's.
• 16:17
  Tomorrow's game. But anyway, there's a few other
• 16:19
  games that are catching my eye that are on.
• 16:21
  Hooks and key numbers. And anytime you bet a game early
• 16:23
  in a week. My goal is to beat the.
• 16:25
  Closing line. Get a 3 1/2.
• 16:27
  It closes at 3. Get A7.
• 16:28
  And a half. It closes at 7, that sort of
• 16:30
  thing. I laid it on the Sunday night
• 16:31
  game, 8:20 PM Eastern Time, Houston.
• 16:34
  Texans, Kansas City Chiefs. Now.
• 16:37
  This obviously is a desperation. Game for the Chiefs because.
• 16:40
  They may not make the playoffs, which you never.
• 16:42
  Would have thought. Before the season started, their
• 16:43
  six and six. Texans, meanwhile. 7:00 and 5:00
• 16:46
  but. They're playing well.
• 16:47
  They've won four in a row at this point and.
• 16:50
  I'm taking the points with Houston.
• 16:51
  Now the first thing that jumped. Out to me is.
• 16:54
  The line movement toward. Houston, Kansas City open this
• 16:56
  game. At some shops.
• 16:58
  As high as a 5 1/2. Point favorite 5 1/2 did not
• 17:01
  last long and. Immediately got down to. 3 1/2.
• 17:04
  Very quickly. And all the 3 1/2's.
• 17:06
  Are juiced up getting down to three in favor of Houston if you
• 17:09
  look at the current. Prices across the board.
• 17:12
  For the Sunday night game, let me just give you the the updated
• 17:15
  numbers here. You can still get.
• 17:17
  Plus 3 1/2. At quite a few shops, but a lot.
• 17:20
  Of them are -115. -120. And a fewer down to three.
• 17:24
  So I'm thinking, hey. If we wait too.
• 17:26
  Long and what is? What is?
• 17:28
  You know, Kansas City's been losing a lot recently, but a lot
• 17:30
  of times they win. These games or they win by
• 17:32
  three, so they win but don't cover.
• 17:33
  So I'm thinking, hey. That 3 1/2.
• 17:35
  Could be very meaningful. So I did jump on plus 3 1/2.
• 17:39
  I got it at. -113. At Caesars.
• 17:44
  Again, I don't want to wait till it gets.
• 17:46
  To three. So I grabbed the hook here, but
• 17:47
  here's a couple. Of my my angles 1.
• 17:49
  It's a 5050. Line Publix down the middle of
• 17:51
  DraftKings doesn't know where to go. 5050 line.
• 17:54
  Shouldn't move at? All yet it's moved toward
• 17:56
  Houston. So that's your.
• 17:57
  Indicator of smart money. Rhythm has Houston +2 point. 7
• 18:01
  So if I'm getting. 3 1/2 that's nearly a full point edge.
• 18:04
  We got our primetime dog angle. 21 and 19 ATS this year. 52%.
• 18:09
  Nothing crazy, but. Been a good angle historically
• 18:12
  especially. With the road team.
• 18:13
  You also look at short Rd. dogs getting 6.
• 18:17
  Or less, they're 54%. ATS this year and.
• 18:20
  You also look at. A dog low total There's a very
• 18:23
  low. Total of around 40.
• 18:24
  One and a half, 42 and. Again, low back game or low
• 18:29
  total game. Where maybe points are at a.
• 18:31
  Premium dog, low total. Few amount of expected points
• 18:35
  scored, harder for the favorite. To cover the number and it's a
• 18:38
  play on Texans playing well and their.
• 18:40
  Defense, they're only giving up 16.5.
• 18:42
  Points per game, that's number one in the NFL, so again,
• 18:45
  there's a lot of games I have my eye on.
• 18:47
  I'm also looking at some of these.
• 18:48
  College games upcoming. On Friday, I'll give a.
• 18:51
  Few of them, so stay tuned I. Have a couple leans already but
• 18:53
  I. Want to give it a day or two,
• 18:55
  but that is an early play in the.
• 18:56
  NFL Texans Plus 3 1/2. Against the Chiefs.
• 19:01
  So that about does it for episode 4 O seven of the all.
• 19:04
  Systems go sports betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 19:07
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
• 19:10
  And I always start first by saying.
• 19:11
  Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 19:13
  you for tuning in, thank you for grinding.
• 19:15
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day to sweat some.
• 19:17
  Breakdowns with me, it does mean a lot.
• 19:19
  So I always want to let you. Know that I appreciate.
• 19:21
  You out there listening if you do want to.
• 19:23
  Help me grow the pod please. Could you give it a 5 star?
• 19:25
  Review on Spotify or iTunes. Click the.
• 19:28
  Follow button recommend the pod to a friend that.
• 19:30
  Would all be really awesome. Next, if you're looking for a
• 19:34
  stocking. Stuffer a Christmas gift?
• 19:36
  You want to get something? For yourself or that?
• 19:38
  Buddy of yours or you got no clue what to get your uncle you.
• 19:41
  Should go to Amazon.com. Type in the.
• 19:43
  NFL sharp betting playbook or the everything guide to sports
• 19:46
  betting my 2. Books that I'm very proud of,
• 19:49
  that I've written. If you want to grab.
• 19:50
  One or both hand them out as a gift.
• 19:52
  Get your stocking stuffer and your gift.
• 19:54
  Giving out of the. Way you'll feel.
• 19:55
  Better about it as you procrastinate, which I really
• 19:58
  haven't. Gotten anything?
• 19:59
  Yet for anybody so. I'm already.
• 20:00
  Kind of sweat and I guess it's only December 3rd, I got some
• 20:03
  time here, but. If you want to grab one or both
• 20:05
  of my books. Bring them to the.
• 20:06
  Sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 20:08
  Buy a beer or ginger ale, I'll sweat some games together.
• 20:11
  Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 20:14
  Juice Real yet? Well Rhythm.
• 20:15
  Great for their AI backed models and predictions.
• 20:17
  For game bets. And player props reminder, we do
• 20:19
  have our Rhythm Rundown live stream tomorrow night, 6:00 PM
• 20:22
  Eastern Time. Looking forward to that and then
• 20:25
  juice real. You can support the.
• 20:27
  Pod tip your podcast host. $4.00 and. $0.99 a week you can get
• 20:30
  the all. Systems go best bet picks.
• 20:32
  As well as the. Sharp mush indicators Arbitrage
• 20:35
  plays Shop for the. Best line futures as well as the
• 20:38
  robo. Jackson best bet picks so
• 20:40
  download rhythm. Use that promo code.
• 20:42
  Start 25 for 25% off and. Give both rhythm and juice real
• 20:46
  five star review. In the App Store.
• 20:48
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 20:50
  If you don't have one, you need one because you got to be able
• 20:53
  to. Track the market.
• 20:54
  Identify which direction the line is.
• 20:55
  Moved. Compare the open column to the
• 20:57
  current shop for the best. Price Pull up line History
• 20:59
  Identify Steam Get. Live in game wagering odds The
• 21:03
  best live odds page. Around it's odds logic.
• 21:05
  So if you'd like to give it a shot.
• 21:07
  Just go to oddslogic.com. Slash Josh 123 that'll give.
• 21:12
  You A7. Day free trial and 50% off your.
• 21:14
  First month of service again. Oddslogic.com slash.
• 21:17
  Josh, 123. Have you downloaded Novig?
• 21:21
  Yet. Well, if you haven't.
• 21:22
  It's a great sports betting exchange.
• 21:24
  It's like a sports book, but it's not.
• 21:26
  Because instead of a. Sports book that'll crush you
• 21:29
  with the juice. Make you pay -115 -, 120 -, 125.
• 21:33
  Novig can you? Get it by the name of the the
• 21:36
  book right or the exchange Novig Novigorish.
• 21:38
  Well, technically. There is.
• 21:39
  Vig, but it's low. -1 O 5 -, 1 O 4.
• 21:42
  Plus one O 2. You'll get a.
• 21:44
  Better juice price so. You can.
• 21:45
  Win at the same. Rate you would as A at a sports
• 21:48
  book. But make more money because
• 21:49
  you're risking less juice. So download Novig.
• 21:51
  When you fund your. Account put in.
• 21:53
  Josh, 123. For a promo code and you will
• 21:56
  get an extra 25 bucks. So that about does it for
• 21:59
  episode 4 O 7. Of the ASG pod.
• 22:01
  On a big hump day here, as always guys, whether I see.
• 22:04
  You at the. Borgata in Atlantic.
• 22:05
  City Twin. River in Rhode Island, the
• 22:07
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
• 22:09
  Down in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park
• 22:12
  Casino, MGM Springfield and Nash.
• 22:14
  And my neck. Of the woods.
• 22:15
  Between Nash, Nashua. New Hampshire.
• 22:18
  And the border of. Massachusetts.
• 22:20
  Are out in the desert where the true grinders get down or?
• 22:22
  Billy Walter sends his number runners.
• 22:24
  Where the lowest juice. Possible is found at the South
• 22:25
  Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 22:28
  stadium. Swimming pool.
• 22:29
  When you catch a big ticket at. Circle, you're going to walk up
• 22:31
  to me. Show me a nice Celtics ticket.
• 22:34
  A nice Notre Dame ticket. The first one's on me, next
• 22:37
  one's on you. We'll post about the book.
• 22:38
  So it's some sharp. Contrarian Place tonight.
• 22:41
  So as always, guys coming off a two and three or a three and
• 22:43
  two. A4 in one.
• 22:45
  A1 and 4A5 and O&O and five. A good night, a bad night, a hot
• 22:49
  night, a cold night, a hot. Streak a cold streak.
• 22:52
  We just got to stick. With it, there's going to be
• 22:54
  highs and lows we're going to make.
• 22:55
  Thousands and thousands of bets over the course.
• 22:58
  Of a year and decades and. Hopefully I'll live long enough
• 23:00
  to I don't. Know bet forever, but we're
• 23:03
  going to make a lot of bets, so the whole point is don't get too
• 23:05
  high or too low when things are going.
• 23:07
  Well, or poorly so. Stick with it, keep grinding.
• 23:10
  Let's find those system plays. Let's get some plays.
• 23:12
  To cash for us. And let's continue to do what we
• 23:14
  do, which is. Finding system matches.
• 23:17
  Games that fit our model. Against the public.
• 23:19
  With the house with the pros flat bet avoid.
• 23:21
  Parlays and get that CLV if we can do that.
• 23:23
  We're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 23:25
  So have a great Wednesday night everybody.
• 23:27
  Be right back at it tomorrow for a big Thirsty Thursday.
• 23:30
  Edition. That'll be episode 408.
• 23:32
  Of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 23:35
  rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 23:36
  And have a great. Wednesday night.