Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did Gold’s Dip Signal Bitcoin’s Next All Time High?! | Simply SatoSHE

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Did Gold’s Dip Signal Bitcoin’s Next All Time High?! | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Inflation's back, hotter than expected, and our favorite
• 0:04
  stable coin barely flinched. Let's go.
• 0:08
  The Feds boxed in again. Rate cuts are on deck and the
• 0:11
  money printers are warming up their engines, triggering the
• 0:15
  same migration pattern we've seen every cycle before.
• 0:19
  Some call this the new era of sound money.
• 0:22
  Others say it's Deja vu from the 70s, when inflation refused to
• 0:26
  die and hard assets went vertical.
• 0:30
  As governments and institutions pile into hard money, maybe the
• 0:34
  days of three green years, one red are over.
• 0:37
  Or maybe the real story here is that we've misunderstood cycles
• 0:42
  all along, and this time the Fed is adapting, institutions are
• 0:47
  chasing, and Baron Trump's whispering in dad's ear to stack
• 0:51
  the only asset that might just break the game.
• 1:00
  Is that tax money that the? Fed is spending.
• 1:02
  It's not tax money. The banks have accounts with the
• 1:06
  Fed much the same way that you have an account in a commercial
• 1:09
  bank. So to lend to a bank, we simply
• 1:13
  use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they
• 1:16
  have with the Fed. So it's much more akin, although
• 1:19
  not exactly the same, but it's much more akin to printing money
• 1:21
  than it is to borrowing. You've been printing money.
• 1:24
  Well, effectively, and we need to do that because our economy
• 1:27
  is very weak and inflation is very low.
• 1:30
  Breaking the dollar is actually backed by numbers on a screen,
• 1:35
  and we're all getting robbed. When Fiat weakens, scarcity
• 1:39
  becomes our financial sanctuary. But this time the rotation isn't
• 1:44
  following the familiar four year halving rhythm we've come to
• 1:47
  expect in Bitcoin markets. It's tracking liquidity itself.
• 1:51
  That is the amount of money being printed in circulation.
• 1:55
  It goes like this. The money supply, or as the
• 1:58
  suits like to say M2, expands, inflation rises, then capital
• 2:04
  runs away from bonds and treasuries and into hard assets.
• 2:08
  Watch what Bitcoin icon Michael Saylor has to say in this clip
• 2:12
  where you said you were sitting on what, a $500 million melting
• 2:16
  ice cube. Why do you see it like that?
• 2:18
  Well, you know, for the last decade I didn't pay much
• 2:20
  attention to macroeconomics, and I just thought of it as we had a
• 2:25
  conservative Treasury policy and we had $500 million or more, and
• 2:29
  we're going to generate 2 or 3% interest on it, and we'll use it
• 2:33
  when we need it. But of course, over the past
• 2:37
  year or so, that interest rate for it went from 2 to 0.
• 2:40
  And then everybody woke up to the world of macroeconomics this
• 2:44
  year because we had the largest intervention of the Federal
• 2:47
  Reserve maybe in the history of the country.
• 2:50
  And that drew me into a deep dive.
• 2:53
  And I started studying the expansion of the monetary
• 2:56
  supply. And I realized that for the past
• 2:58
  decade, the monetary supply has been expanding by 7% and the
• 3:02
  actual inflation rate on assets is not 2%.
• 3:06
  The inflation rate on assets is 7 to 8% if you are holding
• 3:10
  equity, and the inflation rate on a bond is 22% if you are
• 3:14
  holding the long bond. And now I realize that the
• 3:18
  estimate for the next few years has got to be 10% or more.
• 3:22
  And so when you start thinking about your cost of capital being
• 3:25
  10% and you're holding 500 million in cash, that's yielding
• 3:29
  zero. I realize my, my real yield is
• 3:32
  -10% at least for the next three years.
• 3:35
  And so I imagined $150 million getting burned or melted away,
• 3:41
  and it made me very anxiety. Ridden.
• 3:43
  When inflation hits, capital has to go somewhere.
• 3:46
  If not, time consumes its value. First it hides in gold, the safe
• 3:51
  analog trade. Then once gold peaks and starts
• 3:55
  to cool off, Bitcoin seemingly wakes up.
• 3:58
  Gold is the warm up act that starts to shake up the markets,
• 4:02
  but Bitcoin is the main event. Hot all consuming lava.
• 4:07
  Liquid hot magma. You know, he kind of sounds like
• 4:11
  Trump there, but I digress. Let me explain why Bitcoin
• 4:14
  eventually wins. For years, everyone's tracked
• 4:18
  the Bitcoin having like it was the gospel.
• 4:26
  If you're not familiar, it's an event in Bitcoin's code that
• 4:30
  cuts the reward miners receive in half roughly every four
• 4:34
  years, intentionally slowing the creation of new Bitcoin and
• 4:38
  reinforcing its scarcity. The most recent halving happened
• 4:41
  in April of 2024, and typically there is a Bitcoin bull run for
• 4:46
  18 months after. This was supposed to be our
• 4:49
  year, but the truth is, halvings don't seem to be the only factor
• 4:54
  moving markets anymore. Lately, it's actually the
• 4:57
  central banks who have been furthering the cause of their
• 5:00
  own demise. But if we zoom out of the online
• 5:14
  echo chamber, every major Bitcoin bull run has lined up
• 5:18
  with one thing money printing. This happened in 2013,
• 5:23
  20/17/2021. Every time the money supply
• 5:26
  grew, Bitcoin followed. So if you're still watching
• 5:30
  block rewards instead of the balance sheet, you're missing
• 5:33
  the real signal. And here's where it gets
• 5:36
  interesting. If you pull up the historical
• 5:39
  charts, you'll notice a striking pattern.
• 5:42
  First, gold tends to make its big move.
• 5:44
  OK, we passed that. Then Bitcoin and gold prices
• 5:48
  fall a bit. That's where we are right now.
• 5:51
  But right after Bitcoin looks like it explodes.
• 5:55
  In his thread, former gold bug turned Bitcoin maxi Alex Stanzik
• 6:00
  connects the dots. He says Bitcoin had hit a 17.83%
• 6:05
  correction exactly on the day, October 9th, when gold hit an
• 6:09
  all time high. Then he continues saying that he
• 6:12
  is still of the view that would have been a great day to rotate,
• 6:16
  even with the difference in gains in gold.
• 6:19
  And yet he says I still believe Bitcoin will massively
• 6:23
  outperform gold over time. Why?
• 6:26
  Because gold is not absolutely finite.
• 6:29
  It increases in supply by roughly 1.5% a year.
• 6:34
  Bitcoin is absolutely finite and like clockwork, everything I've
• 6:40
  just said has come to fruition in the last few days.
• 6:43
  Gold price has just plummeted after its strongest run in
• 6:48
  years, and historically, like I said, that's been the tell.
• 6:52
  That drop could be the spark that signals the next phase of
• 6:56
  this migration from analog scarcity to digital
• 7:00
  inevitability. There's two things that can
• 7:02
  happen. First principles.
• 7:04
  Bitcoin follows liquidity very closely.
• 7:07
  So does gold. So does the stock market.
• 7:10
  These are all assets that expand and contract with the money
• 7:14
  supply. So do you believe that the money
• 7:17
  supply is going to expand or contract in the near future?
• 7:22
  Well, looking at the markets and looking at the jitters and
• 7:25
  looking at the the Fed funds, the Fed funds rate and Fed funds
• 7:30
  futures, listening to the Fed, seeing the the employment data,
• 7:36
  seeing, you know, the different data that says that we're we're
• 7:40
  going to need to tap the brakes here on on or actually hit the
• 7:46
  gas pedal here a little bit, pull our foot off the brake and
• 7:51
  expand liquidity. Hearing all that, it sounds like
• 7:54
  we're going to expand liquidity going into the near future.
• 7:58
  The only question is, do we hit a down hard downturn first?
• 8:01
  Well, I don't I don't think we're going to I think we're
• 8:03
  going to we're going to we're going to ease up on the brakes
• 8:07
  here and we're going to continue to expand liquidity.
• 8:09
  So that means that either there are two things that can happen.
• 8:13
  Either liquidity could contract to meet where Bitcoin is or and
• 8:18
  gold or actually gold's run quite a bit, but liquidity can
• 8:23
  even contract to meet Bitcoin or Bitcoin can catch up to that
• 8:28
  continually expanding liquidity. I I happen to believe that
• 8:32
  liquidity will expand ad infinitum forever.
• 8:36
  It will have draw downs, but it will the the line is up and to
• 8:40
  the right. It's going to continue to be up
• 8:41
  and to the right. The other thing is that Bitcoin
• 8:45
  typically lags gold and gold's move.
• 8:49
  We've seen it in a number of other events.
• 8:51
  And so Bitcoins been lagging gold recently and it will it
• 8:55
  will catch back up in my opinion.
• 8:57
  So my strong opinion is that even if we do have a draw down,
• 9:02
  it's just temporary. Even if we do draw down to
• 9:04
  100,000 and 90 something thousand, it's just temporary in
• 9:07
  my opinion and it's a buying opportunity in my opinion.
• 9:11
  Remember earlier when I brought up M2M2 tracks the amount of
• 9:15
  dollars in circulation? Look at the correlation here
• 9:19
  between that and Bitcoin. Every time it spikes, Bitcoin
• 9:23
  does too because this isn't a supply cycle anymore, it's a
• 9:28
  liquidity cycle. In this post, Jesse Myers says
• 9:32
  the money printer hasn't run this hot since COVID.
• 9:36
  And the legend Larry Leppard posted it with a quote tweet
• 9:40
  saying 12% annualized growth rates in global M2, far cry from
• 9:46
  the Fed's 2% target. And they haven't really even
• 9:50
  turned on the printer yet. Bitcoin launch coming.
• 9:53
  Wait for it. From your lips to God's ears,
• 9:56
  Larry. When they print, everything
• 9:58
  floats. But Bitcoin has historically
• 10:01
  risen the highest. When they tighten, everything
• 10:04
  sinks. Bitcoin, however, has
• 10:06
  historically settled at a higher flow, more than previous bear
• 10:10
  markets. This time, we seem to be
• 10:12
  observing that behavior again. Gold's running Bitcoin is
• 10:16
  lagging for now, but in time it looks like the rotation is
• 10:20
  imminent. Keep this tweet by John Consorti
• 10:22
  in the back of your mind. A 2% capital rotation from gold
• 10:26
  to Bitcoin would send it to 165,000 instantly.
• 10:31
  Whoa. Cycles doesn't seem to have
• 10:33
  played out. We're behind schedule.
• 10:34
  You know, we should have had a bull run already like a a
• 10:37
  massive run up and you know, we're down actually at the time
• 10:41
  of this recording. So I think this cycle, if you
• 10:45
  want to call it a cycle is delayed.
• 10:47
  It might push into next year for all whatever various reasons
• 10:50
  there are. But I think the nation state
• 10:53
  adoption is coming. We're pushing on a lot of funds.
• 10:57
  Other companies and people are pushing too.
• 11:00
  There are concrete examples of what Bitcoin can do to benefit a
• 11:04
  country out there right now. The moves in the USI think have
• 11:08
  yet to propagate throughout the world.
• 11:10
  So Trump did create the SBR, but they haven't started buying yet.
• 11:14
  And we are talking with other countries to do the same.
• 11:17
  There are a few that have said they will create it, and I think
• 11:21
  it's all coming it. It's really that these things
• 11:25
  happen very quickly. It's like literally gradually
• 11:29
  and then suddenly, and I think we're on the tail end of
• 11:32
  gradually and we're at the beginning phases of suddenly.
• 11:37
  And if you look at just the US alone, you know, they're pushing
• 11:39
  forward on a lot of their neutral budget, neutral Bitcoin
• 11:43
  acquisition and the Bitcoin Act too.
• 11:46
  So I believe it's simply a matter of time before we see a
• 11:49
  massive run up and we see a massive nation state FOMO, you
• 11:54
  know, panic. The way I've seen it and the way
• 11:56
  you've heard it in multiple Bitcoin podcasts, live shows,
• 12:00
  and interviews, the end of cycles as we know, is upon us.
• 12:05
  Big government, big institutions, and big banks have
• 12:08
  arrived to the Bitcoin landscape at large.
• 12:11
  I don't think we're going to see the same playbook repeat after
• 12:15
  this turning point. Those in power are now naturally
• 12:17
  incentivized to keep accumulating for two reasons.
• 12:21
  One, to reduce the volatility and and two to stack more
• 12:25
  Bitcoin than their enemies. Remember these people are
• 12:29
  vicious. The way I see it, this will be
• 12:32
  the modern Bitcoin cycle moving forward.
• 12:35
  Phase one, the Fed cuts rates and two, expands inflation
• 12:41
  rises. Phase two.
• 12:43
  Capital flees to hard assets. Gold takes the lead.
• 12:48
  Phase three, Bitcoin wakes up and steals the show.
• 12:52
  Phase four, they tighten liquidity, dyes, markets cool
• 12:57
  off until they print again. I know I'm just trying to be
• 13:01
  cute, but it's not random. It's the feedback loop that
• 13:04
  we've experienced since 1971, except now we have a modern day
• 13:10
  solution. Modern problems require modern
• 13:13
  solutions. And that solution is quickly
• 13:16
  catching on. We've hit that part of the cycle
• 13:19
  where liquidity meets conviction.
• 13:21
  And if you've been stacking for a while, this next phase is
• 13:26
  where miners, hodlers, and everyday stackers all line up on
• 13:30
  the same side of the trade. This is where infrastructure
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  dot IO slash. Simply now let's get back to the
• 15:37
  show bonus segment. Here's where everything changes.
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  So you can use Venmo, but if someone is not using Venmo or is
• 15:46
  an international tourist walking right outside, right?
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  Right now. If I.
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  Have an iPhone and I want to message somebody.
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  I mean, if I don't have WhatsApp and somebody.
• 15:54
  Wants to WhatsApp me, they have to get the WhatsApp app.
• 15:56
  But you have texts which is universal, where you can
• 15:59
  actually communicate and reach out to anyone you want in the
• 16:02
  world with one simple addressing scheme, which is a phone number
• 16:04
  which is human readable. And you can't do that with
• 16:07
  money. There's no universal protocol
• 16:09
  for money on the Internet that actually enables value to be
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  transported to through the Internet.
• 16:15
  So if you were to want to send money to one of these people,
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  you would probably need to ask them for a bank account number.
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  The bank account number would be in different format depending on
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  where you are in the world. You would have to actually
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  physically walk to a branch and pay $50.00 to do an
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  international wire. And if it's after Friday, 5:00
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  PM, tough luck. And how big?
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  A business. Is that it's ginormous, right?
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  There's trillions of dollars of transactions that transit
• 16:39
  through SWIFT and other payment networks.
• 16:42
  Even the Fed is finally admitting that distributed
• 16:45
  ledgers and crypto assets are no longer and the fringes.
• 16:48
  Check out what Fed Governor Waller said in the opening
• 16:52
  remarks of their very first Payment Innovation Conference.
• 16:57
  Roll the clip. Our panelists are engaging in
• 17:00
  integrating traditional financial payment rails with
• 17:03
  distributed ledgers, developing a new developing new products
• 17:07
  and services in the digital asset ecosystem, and leveraging
• 17:11
  AI in the payment system. It's worth noting that the firms
• 17:15
  engaged in these activities include banks, asset managers,
• 17:19
  retail payment firms, technology companies, as well as crypto
• 17:23
  native fintechs. This is an acknowledgement the
• 17:26
  distributed ledgers and crypto assets are no longer on the
• 17:29
  fringes but are increasingly woven into the fabric of the
• 17:33
  payment and financial system. Sounds kind of bullish, right?
• 17:37
  Like they don't mention Bitcoin, but it seems like we're on the
• 17:40
  right track, right? But then came the real line.
• 17:44
  We are also looking ahead to use our own payment systems.
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  Roll the clip. We are also looking ahead
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  conducting hands on research on tokenization using smart
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  contracts and the intersection of AI and payments for use in
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  our own payment systems. Brother, that's not Bitcoin
• 18:10
  adoption, that's a poor attempt to migrate to stable coins and
• 18:15
  perhaps ACBDC. Lord help us.
• 18:18
  They're not joining the revolution, but they sure want
• 18:21
  to be on this side before it's too late.
• 18:23
  If we're in a sovereign debt crisis, and I think we are, and
• 18:26
  if we're going to have a lot of inflation, I think we do.
• 18:28
  And if we're going to go to have a monetary reset, they're going
• 18:32
  to be real winners and losers. And, and you're not going to get
• 18:35
  a do over, you know, you're, you're not going to get a do
• 18:37
  over. It's not going to be like, oh
• 18:38
  gosh, I missed it. Maybe I'll, you know, I mean,
• 18:40
  it's like we could wake up one day and the government can say,
• 18:42
  you know, we're going to a gold standard.
• 18:43
  We're taking the price of gold up to $20,000.
• 18:46
  We either own gold and gold mining stocks or you don't.
• 18:48
  They're going to go enormously. Same thing with Bitcoin.
• 18:51
  I mean, you know, the US could say we're going to do a
• 18:53
  strategic Bitcoin reserve and the Bitcoin price could triple.
• 18:56
  Well, if you don't have any, you don't benefit from that.
• 18:58
  So there will be, you know, because of the risk of monetary
• 19:02
  debasement and the fact that there will be no do over, I
• 19:05
  would just strongly encourage all of your listeners to have
• 19:09
  some allocation of their wealth into things that the government
• 19:14
  can't print. The government can't print gold,
• 19:17
  government can't print silver, government can't print Bitcoin,
• 19:19
  and the government can print dollars.
• 19:21
  And they're going to print a shit load of dollars in my
• 19:24
  opinion. And what does that mean for the
• 19:26
  future of liquidity this cycle? If the US moves to adopt A
• 19:30
  stable coin or launches a central bank digital currency,
• 19:34
  will markets skip gold and move directly to Bitcoin when the Fed
• 19:38
  inevitably decides to increase their supply again?
• 19:42
  Because if we know one thing is certain, whether the dollar is a
• 19:46
  piece of paper or a digital currency, the money printer will
• 19:50
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  and we'll see you there. Cycles don't just die, but they
• 20:29
  do evolve. The halving cycle became the
• 20:32
  liquidity cycle, and now the liquidity cycle is morphing into
• 20:35
  something bigger, the digital scarcity cycle.
• 20:38
  If we look back to gold, historically, society looks for
• 20:44
  a hard money and what what made gold a good money was the
• 20:47
  relative scarcity and the sort of inherent cost of extracting
• 20:53
  more, mining more that comes with scarcity.
• 20:56
  And so something which doesn't have any inherent scarcity
• 20:59
  effectively becomes similar to a share in a company managed by
• 21:03
  some officers of the company or like a Fiat currency like U.S.
• 21:07
  dollar or the euro, which is managed by a monetary Policy
• 21:10
  Committee. So I think it's very difficult
• 21:11
  to imagine that kind of currency, you know, the old
• 21:14
  coins and so forth reaching global acceptance as a as a new
• 21:19
  digital gold. So when you see the Fed cut
• 21:22
  again or the M2 chart start to curl up, remember that's not
• 21:27
  noise, that's signal. Yeah baby, that's it for today's
• 21:33
  show. As always, please like,
• 21:36
  subscribe and share the show with your friends, especially
• 21:39
  the gold bugs. Turn your notifications on for
• 21:42
  some hot new signal from this girl right here two days a week
• 21:45
  and drop a comment down below. Thanks for tuning in to Simply
• 21:49
  Bitcoins, Satoshi. And as always, stack, slay and
• 21:54
  stay bullish baby.