Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BREAKING: Blackrock JUST DROPPED A $600T BOMBSHELL | EP 1268
Transcript
- 0:00So we all know that the traditional capital markets are
- 0:03bigger than one quadrillion dollars.
- 0:06That's 1000 trillion for those at home.
- 0:09But what have we told you that an insider from BlackRock, an
- 0:13$11 trillion giant, just openly said that coin is going to
- 0:18replace this 1000 trillion dollar market?
- 0:22Now again, we know it sounds crazy, but we have a clip coming
- 0:26directly from a Black Rock insider that we're going to play
- 0:29for you guys right now. What advice would you give to,
- 0:34you know, sort of the rest of the financial universe that are
- 0:36thinking about getting into this space now?
- 0:40It's a great question. I, I, I think from our lens,
- 0:45it's a, very, what I'm going to say is going to be very simple.
- 0:50Executing it is extremely hard. So I, I, I recognize that.
- 0:54But to us it's very basic. You basically have a new set of
- 0:58exposures. The real utility and unlock is
- 1:02to be able to put them in the whole portfolio.
- 1:06And interestingly enough, I think you could turn the
- 1:08telescope around also and say ultimately how do you put these
- 1:13capital markets exposures in digital wallets and how do you
- 1:18go? So if you think about the bridge
- 1:19strategy of this alternate digital asset universe and
- 1:23bringing it to the capital markets, I think it's it's naive
- 1:29to assume and and this doesn't have to be in a month, but if
- 1:33you look out over time, it's naive to assume that you don't
- 1:37also have to think through how do you bring the traditional
- 1:40capital markets to this alternative universe.
- 1:43And I think both connection points we'll define the next.
- 1:47Decade. I couldn't agree more and.
- 1:49The best example of it by the way.
- 1:50Was the ETFs. So we got all thrown a curveball
- 1:53in the last minute. There were no in kind creates.
- 1:56And so we were forced to try and figure out how to make old world
- 1:58meet new world, right. And so hopefully in the in the
- 2:01next version thereof, we're going to have more of a
- 2:03synthesis of those two things. So yeah, you're spot on.
- 2:06I agree with that. Dude, I just think people are
- 2:14right now kind of like not eternalizing what these huge
- 2:18asset managers are saying, Opti. I mean, again, there was the
- 2:22guys a little bit monotone. I don't want to dunk on him too
- 2:26much, but he said Bitcoin's essentially going to come and
- 2:29replace, replace the entire global capital markets.
- 2:34And again, this is 1000 trillion dollars in size today.
- 2:38And I think a lot of us, Bitcoin is in particular, we're getting
- 2:41just lulled to sleep with this sideways price action.
- 2:44And we're not paying attention to not only what the big boys
- 2:48are saying, but also the supply suffocation that these public
- 2:52companies and even ETFs are creating right now in the space.
- 2:56I think before we OK there Optia, I want your thoughts on
- 2:59that clip from that BlackRock insider.
- 3:02Yeah, 100%. So I mean, first of all, we've
- 3:04been saying for a long time here at Simply Bitcoin, I think
- 3:07everyone on Twitter has been saying something very similar.
- 3:10A lot of the things that BlackRock is saying, it is very
- 3:13interesting when you've been around the block for a long
- 3:16time, because we've been saying these things for years at this
- 3:19point, especially when the ETFs came out and, and they even kind
- 3:22of mentioned it when they were just talking in the clip, the
- 3:25host, he was essentially saying, like, you know, when the ETF was
- 3:28launched, we did kind of get blindsided by no in kind
- 3:30redemptions. But we also knew that when the
- 3:33ETF and the institutional capital came into Bitcoin, then
- 3:37a whole new wave of, you know, quote, smart money, the, the
- 3:40really expensive rich suit guys are coming into the space.
- 3:44The really smartest people out there are going to start
- 3:46explaining what Bitcoin is. And I think we're starting to
- 3:49see that. I know there's a lot of concern
- 3:51amongst Bitcoiners whether Larry Fink is actually a Bitcoin or
- 3:54he's just here for the games, he's just here for the fees.
- 3:57But it is kind of becoming more convincing over time that
- 4:01BlackRock is here, not just for the games, because obviously
- 4:05that's what they're here for, but secondly, because they are
- 4:09starting to see the writing on the wall.
- 4:10And we've been talking about this for a while.
- 4:12And depending on who you're listening to out there on
- 4:14Twitterverse or even on YouTube, it is becoming very clear that
- 4:19BlackRock themselves are the biggest institutions in the
- 4:21world right now are looking for, for lack of better terms, like
- 4:25diversified portfolios. You know, they're looking for
- 4:27alternatives here. Again, if you are these people
- 4:30at the very top, you are probably seeing the same thing
- 4:33that Luke and I and everyone the chat is seeing.
- 4:36There's something fundamentally either wrong in the system or
- 4:40there's a potential catastrophe on the horizon.
- 4:43And I think This is why BlackRock has sent out their
- 4:47suit coiners, you know, sent out their marketing team to
- 4:49essentially start to shield Bitcoin to everyone because
- 4:53they're they're essentially projecting to their clients
- 4:56right now that, hey, look, we don't know what's going to
- 4:58happen. We obviously don't want to
- 5:00essentially yell fire in, in, you know, while we're trying to
- 5:04leave the exit door here, but we want to preemptively kind of get
- 5:09our customers and clients familiar with this idea of you
- 5:14need Bitcoin. Remember in the beginning, Luke,
- 5:16I, I'm pretty sure it was BlackRock.
- 5:18It was that it was definitely a BlackRock report, but they
- 5:20started out with saying something ludicrous like you
- 5:23need 80% of your assets in Bitcoin.
- 5:25And we were search researching this and like, whatever happened
- 5:27to that 80% prediction here? Or rather, you know,
- 5:30recommendation of this is how much allocation you should have
- 5:33the Bitcoin. And now they kind of moved it
- 5:35back to like 1-5, maybe 10% here.
- 5:38So you're starting to see that they are nudging their customers
- 5:41towards Bitcoin, you know, an alternative, decentralized,
- 5:45permissionless, censorship resistant money.
- 5:48Because there is obviously a lot of economic uncertainties in the
- 5:52market right now, whether it's, you know, global crises, whether
- 5:56it's the bond markets blowing up, there is a lot of unknown
- 5:59unknowns right now. And you know, if you were around
- 6:02for the 2008 crisis, you probably don't want to catch
- 6:06yourself in the same position with your pants down.
- 6:09And now that we have Bitcoin, literally Bitcoin was created
- 6:12after that event, you're kind of at at the very least, getting
- 6:17your customers, getting the markets familiar with what
- 6:20Bitcoin is so that they can essentially protect themselves,
- 6:23but also so that you can protect your Moat here.
- 6:25And again, Larry Fink has been out here basically saying, oh,
- 6:28we're going to 700 K soon. So again, the marketing team is
- 6:31here and they I think are are getting more bullish as the days
- 6:36come, as the blocks come in, they're like, yo, I really do
- 6:40believe this is going to go absolutely crazy.
- 6:43And so, hey, look and further, actually let me just pull up the
- 6:46chart because it does seem like the suit corners out there love,
- 6:51love the phrase. Now I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna
- 6:53constantly use it. Are actually reading the
- 6:56Bitcoin, you know, literature, the Bitcoin data.
- 6:59They're they're probably on Bitcoin Twitter with us.
- 7:01They might even be a non for all we know.
- 7:04But he's literally saying what Jesse Crease's or sorry, Jesse
- 7:07Myers, AKA Crease's Bitcoin has been saying on Twitter for a
- 7:10long time. And we've been using this chart
- 7:13on the show. Everyone on Twitter is kind of
- 7:15talking about it as well. This is the trajectory that
- 7:18we're talking about here. Of course, if you aren't
- 7:21familiar with this, I, you must be new here because we, we
- 7:24constantly all Bitcoiners parade this chart out there because
- 7:28this is the end game. Again, whether you say Bitcoin
- 7:31is half of every transaction, half of all the value in the
- 7:33world, or you say, hey, you know, we're just going to go
- 7:36towards the gold market cap, the bond market cap, etcetera.
- 7:39Or you're going as bulltard as the BlackRock COO here saying,
- 7:43hey, you know, it's going to eat up as much of the capital
- 7:47markets as possible. The truth and the facts remain
- 7:50the same. Bitcoin is just .2% of global
- 7:52wealth. It's a $2 trillion market cap.
- 7:55And now we have the best marketers out there shilling
- 7:57Bitcoin, talking our bags and essentially saying what US
- 8:00bitcoiners have been saying forever.
- 8:02It's just no longer, you know, Luke and I or Nico and I or
- 8:06dudes in a hoodie talking about it.
- 8:08It's the guys in the expensive suits out there basically saying
- 8:11what we've been saying forever. There's 1000 trillion or one
- 8:15quadrillion of global capital and Bitcoin is going to eat a
- 8:19significant chunk of this. So, well, I find it very
- 8:21interesting, Luke, that of course, we have these people
- 8:24that are obviously more well versed with the traditional
- 8:27financial system, essentially embracing Bitcoin, essentially
- 8:31giving us the stamp of approval and saying, hey, yeah, actually,
- 8:34guys, I know we've been kind of saying that Bitcoin, you know,
- 8:38is hacker money, criminal money. But now you're starting to see
- 8:43the headlines. They're saying it's a pivotable,
- 8:46A pivotable macro asset in the world right now.
- 8:49And if it's not a part of your portfolio, you might not make it
- 8:53through the turmoil that we might see on the horizon in the
- 8:55next decade, 2 decades, etcetera, because we all are
- 8:58again, seeing a monetary paradigm shift happening in real
- 9:03time. And as we all know here, Bitcoin
- 9:05is going to be at the heart of this.
- 9:07We are seeing, as they said in that clip, the old world collide
- 9:11with the new world or the analog world collide with the digital
- 9:15world. And they are trying to find
- 9:17bridges to this. Now, are all these products
- 9:19going to work? Is this going to be, you know,
- 9:22a, a cakewalk? I highly doubt it.
- 9:24We've also, Luke's seen, you know, Blackrock's been talking
- 9:26about tokenizing all the things recently.
- 9:28And it does sound like that's what he was kind of saying
- 9:30there. But one point remains the same.
- 9:34A shit ton of capital is going to get unleashed into Bitcoin.
- 9:38And of course, we're all in it for the tech guys.
- 9:41I know we're all in it for the tech here, but number has to go
- 9:45up at a certain point. And I got a good clip from Matt
- 9:47Hogan. We're going to follow up this
- 9:48segment with kind of explaining or answering the question.
- 9:51We're all wondering why isn't the price going up?
- 9:54Well, I think it's just the demand, or rather the
- 9:58information hasn't fully seeped into the market.
- 10:00People fully don't understand what's going on here.
- 10:03A lot of people are in denial that we are in a paradigm
- 10:06shifting moment in the world and all the different crises,
- 10:10whether you know, it's the stuff going on in the Middle East,
- 10:13whether it's the economic turmoil, people are panicked
- 10:17right now. Or rather, you know, we talk
- 10:19about retail is essentially living paycheck to paycheck, you
- 10:22know, doing layaway on their burritos, literally financing
- 10:26their air Uber Eats orders right now.
- 10:29It's like there is a lot of pain in the system right now.
- 10:32And of course, as we always say, the way to avoid the pain is by
- 10:36saving in Bitcoin. It's by becoming a Bitcoiner and
- 10:39taking that Bitcoin into custody.
- 10:41So Luke, I kind of ranted there a little bit, but it's all
- 10:45pointing towards the same thing. It's going into Bitcoin
- 10:48eventually. Do we know the timelines?
- 10:49No, as this was saying, there it is.
- 10:54You know, it's going to take a while, but we are starting to
- 10:57see the train move. And as Lynn Alden has been
- 10:59saying, nothing stops this train.
- 11:01You know, it's more of a locomotive than it is a bullet
- 11:04train. So, you know, patience, guys.
- 11:08And we'll put the suit coiners on the locomotive and the
- 11:11Bitcoiners need to get on the bullet train the the suit
- 11:13cleaners, they're coming. I've never heard that one
- 11:16before. But again, I think that's the
- 11:18signal here. Like Bitcoin's got the biggest
- 11:21total addressable market of any technological innovation we've
- 11:25ever seen before in human history.
- 11:27Like, again, a lot of people thought the light bulb was big,
- 11:30but it's Tam was like, what, 5 percent, 10% of the global
- 11:34economy? A lot of people thought that
- 11:36Henry Ford's automobile was a massive revolutionary invention,
- 11:39and it was. But it was only disrupting the
- 11:42automobile industry. Bitcoin is disrupting goddamn
- 11:47everything. I mean, think about that for a
- 11:48minute. Money is literally 1/2 of every
- 11:52every, every transaction. And BlackRock is openly saying
- 11:55the quiet parts out loud. Now.
- 11:57There's a 1000 trillion dollar market. 1 quadrillion dollars.
- 12:01That's how big the total capital markets are all around the world
- 12:05and Bitcoin is coming for that. I think, Okti, you mentioned a
- 12:08really interesting paper earlier as well.
- 12:11And I wanted to just kind of double click on that one because
- 12:13again, let's not forget what Black Rock wrote in 2022, that
- 12:17portfolio recommendation that was actually for their private
- 12:20clients. I believe their private clients
- 12:22got their hands on that first before it was made public and
- 12:27and they openly said look over a decade time horizon between the
- 12:32year 2011 and 2021 the optimal portfolio allocation was 84.9%
- 12:41Bitcoin and then 15% stocks and bonds.
- 12:44Think about that for a minute. The entire world has operated
- 12:48under this premise or this thinking that 6040 is the
- 12:52optimal portfolio allocation, 60% of my money in bonds, 40% in
- 12:57the more risky stuff, equities, and you know this is the optimal
- 13:02portfolio allocation. BlackRock just flipped that onto
- 13:05head with that 2022 paper and said look, that's the trash.
- 13:09Stocks and bonds only put 15% of your money in that.
- 13:14The optimal allocation over the past decade was 85% Bitcoin.
- 13:19Again, just think about that for a minute.
- 13:21I think CS in the chat is saying shaking out the letters hands.
- 13:25That's exactly what we're seeing right now.
- 13:27I popped a little with Opti and I were discussing the chart of
- 13:31Bitcoin before we got on this live stream and we were just
- 13:33like, dude, where is the crash that everybody's talking about?
- 13:37Is it in that little tiny purple box in the top right hand corner
- 13:40of the chart? Opti, where is it?
- 13:43I don't know. I don't see it.
- 13:44I don't feel it. I'm pretty I'm pretty numb to
- 13:46the price movements of Bitcoin these days.
- 13:49Like I'm again, I'm just waiting for Bitcoin to repeat what it
- 13:53did in 2017 when I I first kind of felt some tinglings in my
- 13:58never regions again, I found Bitcoin in 2017 and when I got
- 14:02into the space, it ripped from $1000 to 20,000 in nine months.
- 14:06Let me tell you that was a rally.
- 14:08And since then I don't think we've seen a bull run.
- 14:10So all these short term price movements, movements, they're
- 14:13just kind of like noise. Like I just, I don't feel it.
- 14:18I don't feel it. What about are you up to you?
- 14:19Are you freaking out right now? You let us hand in like a Dave
- 14:23Portnoy dropping his Bitcoin like this.
- 14:25No bro, again the metric that I just saw this morning.
- 14:32I forget the exact number of days, but Bitcoin has been above
- 14:36100K for 38 days. I believe that's the longest
- 14:40time it's been above 100K. And there were headlines.
- 14:43I, I joke actually, me and Nico always joke with Luke about him.
- 14:46His alt account over at Forbes is doing a really good job of
- 14:51trying to create the FOMO for Forbes digital assets.
- 14:54And he did this article this morning and it was something
- 14:58about Bitcoin price crash or something like that.
- 15:02And he was saying something on the lines of, oh, Bitcoin had a
- 15:06violent crash to 100K. And I'm like, what are you
- 15:11talking about? Like this was not a violent
- 15:13crash. It was what, like a two 3% move
- 15:16here? Like we bit corners, don't get
- 15:18out of bed for a two 3% move here.
- 15:20Like we've gone through 80% decline.
- 15:23Do you think A2 3% above 100K is really affecting Bitcoiners?
- 15:28People that understand we're in a monetary paradigm shift moment
- 15:32like, or as Croesus likes to say, a once in a lifetime moment
- 15:37around money. Like we're still above 100 Ki
- 15:40know if you look at the short term price movements, it is very
- 15:45easy to get bored. Like, I'll be honest with you, I
- 15:47I kind of got bored with 100K like one day after we broke it,
- 15:51you know, we were sitting in our chat for, for the simply Bitcoin
- 15:54Slack. And we're sitting there like,
- 15:56you know, I'm hanging out the zoomers and we're we're, we're
- 15:59just like, yeah, bro, we did it. And then we all, well, rather
- 16:03maybe not the zoomers, but like Nico, myself and like probably
- 16:07Luke, we were sitting there. It's like, well, we were
- 16:09promised 100K in 2021 and it's 2024 and of course we knew we
- 16:14were going to get there. But now we're like, when are we
- 16:18going to a million? You know, we were literally that
- 16:20meme and I was talking to my buddy Shao.
- 16:22You, you guys know, simply Bitcoin's unofficial official
- 16:24trainer. And he was like, we were
- 16:27literally that meme where you're like staring at the computer and
- 16:29it's like 99 K. It gets to 100K and you're like,
- 16:32woo. And then it gets to one O 1K and
- 16:35you're still back like, OK, I think, I think it's very easy to
- 16:39zoom in on the short term price predictions.
- 16:40And of course, like a two 3% move in S&P 500 in traditional
- 16:45stocks. That's a good thing.
- 16:47You know, they, that's all they they look for two, three 5%
- 16:50moves in gold. The boomers are ecstatic.
- 16:53Us bitcoiners were like, dude, 2% like this is boring.
- 16:57Everyone is wondering are we going to get parabolic runs
- 17:01anymore? I think it's happening.
- 17:03I I'm still fundamentally a bullet hard and I think they are
- 17:08happening. I think we are going to see
- 17:10again, you know, not to do the speculation of what this cycle
- 17:14is going to hold out, but I'm starting to feel like we're
- 17:16going to get a 2017 ish blow off top in the end of this year.
- 17:22November, December. I, I, I think that I think it's
- 17:26aligning up perfectly. I think these cycles are getting
- 17:28stretched out a little bit as more capital comes in.
- 17:30Actually, Luke, will you pull this pull?
- 17:33Wait, you might have to refresh or exit this.
- 17:35Yeah, just re refresh this real quick.
- 17:38Yeah, we're going to take a peek.
- 17:39What year do you want to look at?
- 17:40Just I want the whole thing. Just put it in, put it in log
- 17:44again. You're on log.
- 17:45Yeah. So yesterday, if you watched
- 17:47yesterday's show on the cycles, we were kind of talking about
- 17:51the Sailor cycle. And you know, just looking at
- 17:56this this morning, it it, it is starting to look like that.
- 18:00Like look it after 2023. As we were saying, the Super
- 18:04cycle is here. The structure looks
- 18:08fundamentally different from 2023, the back half of this
- 18:12chart than it did in the first part of this chart.
- 18:15Now, I don't believe the cycles are over.
- 18:18I think we will see a parabolic run, but you can see it's doing
- 18:21that stepwise function that we're all kind of thinking will
- 18:24potentially happen. And as Luke was saying, it does
- 18:28feel like we haven't had a bull run.
- 18:31We never, we haven't had a bull run since 2021.
- 18:34And that was a disappointing 1. So yeah, we're due, bro.
- 18:39We're due for an epic run here. But again, don't over leverage
- 18:43yourself. Be humble stacks that stay
- 18:45solving all those good things. But I am starting to get more
- 18:48bullish, Luke. I am.
- 18:49I'm starting to get even more bullish.
- 18:52Every day that it doesn't pump is just telling me it's going to
- 18:55pump even harder. Yeah.
- 18:57Well, I mean, to the earlier point that you made, a lot of
- 19:00people they're speculating is this cycle different?
- 19:04I know we've got some data we want to cover in the back half
- 19:06of this show to actually prove that yes, it is fundamentally
- 19:10different. But before we get there, just on
- 19:12the Sailor cycle thesis, I think it's really interesting.
- 19:15Again, I, I don't believe in any of these models.
- 19:20I think it's crazy that people can look at three data points on
- 19:26a chart and claim that they've found the secrets to the
- 19:30universe and the math and the science of Bitcoin is all a
- 19:33power law because we have had three data points of Bitcoin
- 19:37crashing 80% and moving in these waves.
- 19:40I just don't buy that. I just don't buy that.
- 19:43So I love the idea of a Sailor cycle.
- 19:45I think it's far more rooted in reality than something like the
- 19:50power opinion or a stock to flow chart for example.
- 19:54I think again models are a great tools to bring people into the
- 20:00Bitcoin space. But I think they're not.
- 20:03They're not phrased and explained with the caveats that
- 20:06I think they need. Like the reason why Bitcoin
- 20:09trends up and to the right forever is because it's
- 20:12absolutely scarce. And again, a lot of these
- 20:14models, they don't come with a caveat of, hey, we don't know
- 20:17where the price of Bitcoin is going to go, but it is going to
- 20:19trend in this up and to the right direction for the
- 20:22foreseeable future because of its underlying fundamentals.
- 20:26It's got 21 million Bitcoin. Again, I don't know why I don't
- 20:29hear this narrative talked about so much in the power opinion
- 20:33space. I think it's because they
- 20:35fundamentally ignore supply and demand.
- 20:37Again, my biggest gripe with the power law is that pre 2020, from
- 20:422008 to 2020, we were in a fundamentally different
- 20:45environment for Bitcoin. 90% of the coins, the total Bitcoin was
- 20:50mined in that 12 year period. So we saw about 17 to 18,000,000
- 20:54coins mined before 2020 and all that happened was Bitcoin was
- 20:59put onto the exchanges. So if you have a look at the
- 21:01number of Bitcoin exchanges pre 2020, it only grew for 12 years.
- 21:06It peaked at about 3.1 million in early 2020.
- 21:09And pre 2020 we had no billionaires, public
- 21:13corporations, private corporations, pension funds, all
- 21:16nation states buying Bitcoin. And I think post 2020, we're in
- 21:19a completely different realm. Not only is a lot less Bitcoin
- 21:24being mined 164,000 a year, but we're seeing coins on exchange
- 21:30leave. They've been persistently
- 21:32leaving the exchanges for five years now.
- 21:35And we've also seen OTC desks. They just got drained by what
- 21:3980% over the past three years. And we now have demand coming
- 21:44from the billionaires. So I again, I just my biggest
- 21:47gripe with this cycle discussion is that 12 years of data pre
- 21:502020, we're not in that world anymore.
- 21:55We, we, we are in a completely fundamentally different regime
- 21:59for Bitcoin. It is no longer retail plebs
- 22:02just moving the price of Bitcoin and very predictably creating
- 22:05these big parabolas that always happen because again, retail is
- 22:08retail. They don't think about when to
- 22:11buy Bitcoin. They don't just hit the big
- 22:13smash buy green button. You know, like Michael Saylor's
- 22:17doing things differently to what these guys are doing when they
- 22:19buy Bitcoin on exchange. So yeah, I, I just think we're
- 22:23going to see a depth. I again, I'm not ruling out the
- 22:26fact that we top it $200,000 and just by coincidence we have
- 22:30another 80% correction. I'm not saying that's
- 22:33impossible. What I'm saying is I don't know
- 22:35what's going to happen. But when I see everybody on one
- 22:38side of the boat saying I know exactly what's going to happen,
- 22:41it's following a power law, that's when I think, hang on a
- 22:44minute, Markets, traditional markets, not just Bitcoin, but
- 22:49all markets, they always punish the consensus view.
- 22:53And the consensus view is, oh, you know, we're seeing
- 22:57diminishing returns, bro. Bitcoins is going to top at like
- 23:00150 to 200,000. It's going to hit the top, you
- 23:03know, top standard deviation ban on a power law just because I
- 23:06made it up and it's going to crash 70% again.
- 23:08And then you're going to be able to multiply your bitcoins by
- 23:11buying back at 80,000. It's too easy.
- 23:14I, I just don't think it's too easy.
- 23:16We saw the same thing happen with stock to flow in 2021.
- 23:20Again I got crucified in 2021 for saying this model is going
- 23:24to break. It was the most unpopular
- 23:27opinion in Bitcoin saying the stock to flow is BS.
- 23:31And again I got crucified for months if not years for having
- 23:34that opinion and it eventually broke.
- 23:36And I think a lot of people lost a lot of money because they were
- 23:39expecting Bitcoin to hit 288,000 because a magical model
- 23:42predicted it, right? Again, I think the fundamentals
- 23:45are what's more important, and that's what we continue to hit
- 23:47on here at Simply Bitcoin. We show you guys the news and
- 23:51the underlying fundamentals that I think day after day brings
- 23:55U.S. data to suggest that things are becoming more and more
- 23:59unlike previous cycles every single day.
- 24:02What do you think, Opti? Are you bullish from the Sailor
- 24:05cycle? I'm starting to be more bullish
- 24:08on the sailor side. I I'm like a molder from
- 24:11X-Files. I really want to believe.
- 24:13I I want to believe. I really want to believe this is
- 24:15going to happen. Will it be this cycle or in four
- 24:19years from now? I don't know.
- 24:20But at a certain point it will break.
- 24:23And as we've all been saying, you know, we will see at some
- 24:27point or I personally believe, you know, this isn't a statement
- 24:30of fact here, this is an opinion.
- 24:32But I do believe we will see the S curve adoption play out.
- 24:35And as we covered yesterday, and as Adam Back's been tweeting and
- 24:39some OG's have been tweeting, the S curve is very steep.
- 24:43And I don't think we've seen the total adoption of Bitcoin yet.
- 24:47I, I forget what the number is, but from the metrics I remember
- 24:50they're saying around, you know, 3%, three to 5% of the global
- 24:54population is, is in Bitcoin or has Bitcoin exposure or even
- 24:58shit coin exposure. And I would argue that even a
- 25:00smaller percentage of those people actually understand what
- 25:04is going on here. So I, I don't think we're at,
- 25:07we're at full capacity here. I, I think it's just starting
- 25:11and you know, we're going to have to huddle our asses off
- 25:14here like it's going to get harder because it's going to get
- 25:17crazier as things start to blow up, as there's more uncertainty
- 25:20in the world. This Bitcoin is going to be a
- 25:24vacuum and suck up so much liquidity, so much capital that
- 25:29I, I'm with Luke. The old cycles are going to look
- 25:33like kids play to what's coming. I'm just fully convinced of this
- 25:36to do I know when. No, of course not.
- 25:39But even when we talk about these predictions, you know, a
- 25:42lot of people like to use models, like I remember using
- 25:44the Plan B model in 2018, you know, 2020.
- 25:47And like we're going, we're going forever and then basically
- 25:51trying to sell Bitcoin at the top to my friends.
- 25:54So, you know, all models are broken.
- 25:56But like they do help us kind of understand what's going on, help
- 25:59us build our conviction, you know, maybe, maybe kind of low
- 26:03key wreck your friends for like a month or two.
- 26:05But like as long if they held, they would be good.
- 26:07And my friends that did held are happy they held.
- 26:10So, you know, I, I think it's all part of the marketing around
- 26:13Bitcoin. But yeah, I'm starting to get
- 26:15bullish. One day, Luke, we will see this.
- 26:17All we know is it's going up forever, up and to the right.
- 26:22A quadrillion worth of world capital has to get into 21
- 26:26million coins or even less. You know, 1516 depending on
- 26:31estimation. So I don't know, I don't know
- 26:33about you guys, but it seems like Bitcoin is going to the
- 26:37moon at some point. So you better strap in.
- 26:39It's going to get crazy, simply divided.
- 26:42Well, what's going on here? All right, anyways, guys or Luke
- 26:45jump in and then let's let's keep it moving because you did
- 26:47mention the reasons for why we think this time might be
- 26:51different and I have the perfect clip to play there.
- 26:53Yeah. Just quickly, all I'll say on
- 26:55that point, Opti is as we're going to talk about later is we
- 26:59got a quadrillion dollars of value that wants to flow into 21
- 27:03million coins. But as we're going to have a
- 27:05look at, I don't think all 21 million Bitcoin are going to be
- 27:08available for sale in the future.
- 27:10And there's actually going to be a lot less Bitcoin available for
- 27:13sale than most people couldn't I think ever imagine.
- 27:16But I'll save that for a minute. Yeah, I think you kind of laid
- 27:20it out last time you were on this show.
- 27:21So, but yeah, we'll, we'll talk about that towards the wrap up
- 27:24of the show 'cause there has been a whole new breed of FUD
- 27:28around Bitcoin treasuries. And hey, we might, we're kind of
- 27:30been a part of it. We're like, you know, it seems
- 27:32like the new shit coin cycle, but the legacy media is starting
- 27:37to catch on to it. Anyways, before I move on, I do
- 27:39want to remind you to smash the like button.
- 27:41It really helps us in the algos. And of course, if this your
- 27:43first time here, hit the subscriber button.
- 27:46We go live Monday through Friday 12:15 every single day covering
- 27:51the Bitcoin news and of course big shout out to our boys over
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- 28:11We have a chance to win 1,000,000 sets and the reason we
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- 28:30acquire Bitcoin is you taking it into self custody.
- 28:35Enable your independence and buy real Bitcoin at bitcoinwell.com.
- 28:41On that note, guys, let's get into some more bullish
- 28:44explanations of why we haven't seen the price start ripping
- 28:48yet. I want to tell you guys about
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- 30:18today. All righty then.
- 30:25Wow, look, that was that was cinematic right there.
- 30:30OK, we're over here on Clark Wendy's dashboard, of course,
- 30:32going over the Bitcoin numbers and the current Bitcoin price is
- 30:36103,620. Guys, it's absolutely over.
- 30:39We are a decline from all time high at -7 1/2%.
- 30:44It's over. Wrap it up.
- 30:46We had a good run. It's going to 0.
- 30:48No, I'm I'm trolling obviously. And the stats for dollar AKA how
- 30:52much Bitcoin you can buy for for a single dollar.
- 30:54Again, you don't have to buy a whole Bitcoin.
- 30:55You don't have to spend $103,000 to get Bitcoin.
- 30:59You can literally get 965 SAT's per dollar.
- 31:03But of course you know, buy as much Bitcoin as you can.
- 31:05If you do have 103 K liquid right now in cash, I would say
- 31:09buy the Bitcoin. This is the best move you can
- 31:11make. And of course, the block height,
- 31:13which might be the most important number here it is
- 31:16TikTok next walk Bitcoin working exactly as designed.
- 31:18We are currently at 901,651 and the market cap and Fiat terms we
- 31:24have claimed reclaimed the $2 trillion market cap, 2.06
- 31:28trillion. And you know, I'm just going to
- 31:30wrap it up with the total percentage issued ever.
- 31:33As we just said, there's probably millions of Bitcoin
- 31:36lost and we have currently have issued 94.66%, or rather the
- 31:42Bitcoin network has released about 94.66% of all the Bitcoin
- 31:47that would ever be created. Now, as I was telling you, you
- 31:50know, this time does feel different.
- 31:53We don't know yet, but everyone's wondering the same
- 31:55thing. Hey Opti.
- 31:56Hey Nico. Hey Luke, you guys are covering
- 31:59all this bullish news. Why isn't the Bitcoin price
- 32:02ripping and what's the price going to do by the end of this
- 32:06year? Well, Matt Hogan from Bitwise, I
- 32:09think, perfectly explains what is going on here.
- 32:12So let's check this out. Yeah, our prediction is that
- 32:16bitcoins going to eclipse, get over $200,000 by the end of the
- 32:20year. What's happening right now is
- 32:22you have a huge amount of good news in Bitcoin.
- 32:25You have AUS strategic reserve where the government now owns
- 32:28Bitcoin. You have improvements on the
- 32:30regulatory front. You have institutional adoption.
- 32:33You may be wondering why aren't prices higher?
- 32:35The reason is we've had a bunch of economic uncertainty that's
- 32:38caused not just Bitcoin, but all risky assets to fall.
- 32:42Stocks are down substantially, so the market has dipped.
- 32:46But I think over time, as that economic volatility subsides,
- 32:51you're going to see all that good news catch up to Bitcoin
- 32:53and it's going to propel it to do all time highs and indeed
- 32:56above $200,000 for the year. What do we have to see?
- 32:59Like, is there a sign that we have to see for all that to
- 33:02happen? Yeah, there are two things to
- 33:04keep your eye on SO1 Bitcoins price is set by supply and
- 33:07demand. And we all know the supply,
- 33:08right? There'll only be 21 million.
- 33:10We only make 165,000 new ones a year.
- 33:13So you have to watch the demand. The three things to watch our
- 33:15ETF's gaining inflows are corporations like MicroStrategy
- 33:19and Metaplanic continuing to buy Bitcoin and our governments
- 33:22buying Bitcoin. If those three things happen, I
- 33:26think the $200,000 target is a lot.
- 33:28So I would keep your eye on that.
- 33:30It would help if the economy improves, if we don't enter a
- 33:33recession, that would help. But it's really about does the
- 33:36demand materialize in the way I think it will.
- 33:38Every sign that I see suggests that ETFs are buying,
- 33:42corporations are buying, and governments are buying.
- 33:44That's why I'm so bullish. But they have to keep buying in
- 33:47order for us to get to that $200,000 target.
- 33:49They said they keep on buying. At what scale are you talking
- 33:52about? Yeah.
- 33:52So last year ETFs bought half a million Bitcoin.
- 33:55Again, remember, the Bitcoin network only produced 165,000
- 34:00Bitcoin. So it bought three times the
- 34:02total supply. Corporations bought 250,000
- 34:06Bitcoin. Governments I think this year
- 34:08could buy a couple 100,000 Bitcoin.
- 34:10So I think if you look at those three sources, I think they'll
- 34:13buy more than a million Bitcoin this year.
- 34:16And where is it going to come from?
- 34:17The only place it can come from is people who already hold
- 34:20Bitcoin. The only way they will sell is
- 34:22if the price goes up. That's why I'm so bullish on the
- 34:25market. Now, that last point, I think
- 34:28it's lost on a lot of people. As we've been telling you, the
- 34:32majority of coin is being held by individuals or even
- 34:35institutions or the Michael Saylors of the world.
- 34:38And there's only one way to incentivize us to sell that
- 34:41Bitcoin, or rather, you know, secure some of our purchasing
- 34:45power if you don't like that phrasing.
- 34:46And that's for the price to go up.
- 34:49Now we did mention a couple of metrics to watch.
- 34:51And so I want to bring those up so we can kind of Fact Check
- 34:54this in real time and show you what we're seeing.
- 34:57Of course, he talked about the ETF inflows.
- 35:01Now I'm over here on coinglass.com/bitcoin Dash ETF.
- 35:05You guys can follow along at home or rather maybe bookmark
- 35:08this and follow along moving forward.
- 35:11It'll tell you the daily inflows to ETFs again by the day with
- 35:15every ETF. And you can see there's been
- 35:18some red days here. But as you can see on the bottom
- 35:20total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow, as he said, as long as
- 35:24this number continues to increase, he will be bullish on
- 35:28the price because of course, that's the institutional retail
- 35:31capital appetite for this new asset emerging asset, of course,
- 35:37Bitcoin. And you can see the heat map.
- 35:39If I I wouldn't, I wouldn't suggest you buy the ETS.
- 35:42But if you, if you want to buy one of them, you'll, you can
- 35:45follow along at home. They'll also show you the
- 35:47outflows. So there have been some red days
- 35:49here. Obviously, there's been a lot of
- 35:51turmoil. If you've had your head in the
- 35:53sand the last couple of weeks, there's kind of a lot of crazy
- 35:56stuff going on right now. Bond markets are blowing up,
- 36:00even increased tensions in the Middle East.
- 36:02We're seeing all kinds of crazy stuff right now domestically in
- 36:05the US and of course, internationally.
- 36:08We are in kind of a boiling point right now and we don't
- 36:12know what will break, but hopefully the break is to the
- 36:15upside and that's the Bitcoin price ripping now.
- 36:18This is Luke's favorite site here.
- 36:20The other thing he mentioned was the fact that if you see
- 36:25corporate Bitcoin treasuries acquiring more Bitcoin, then
- 36:28that is bullish. Now you can see all time here on
- 36:31bitcointreasuries.net. It is increasing, it has been
- 36:35increasing, it is going up. Of course, they own roughly 3.44
- 36:38million coins by the day and we'll cover this towards the end
- 36:42of the show. By the day, we're seeing new
- 36:44Bitcoin treasury companies emerge.
- 36:47It's seeming like everyone is trying to play Hungry Hippo
- 36:50soon. So those metrics, as he said,
- 36:53are increasing. And I've been saying for a
- 36:56little bit, it does feel like my My Oracle prediction of 200 Ki.
- 37:02I'm starting to be more convinced of it by the day.
- 37:05Now, the one thing he did say was nation states buying.
- 37:10We haven't really heard any news there.
- 37:12We still don't know if the US or China holds all the coin they
- 37:17claim. You know, where are the audits,
- 37:19bro? What's going on here?
- 37:21But when that does happen again, we do have to do a little hat
- 37:25tip to Trump to essentially announce that they wanted to
- 37:30acquire Bitcoin, setting the game theory off.
- 37:32Now, once someone starts to aggressively stack besides El
- 37:36Salvador and Bhutan, this is when things get crazy.
- 37:41This is when you start to see the hard limit of Bitcoin
- 37:4521,000,000 start to sink in because again, it's everything
- 37:49divided by 21 million. It's got to explode.
- 37:54Now I'm with Matt here. You know, it's just that the
- 37:57asymmetric information out there, especially stark contrast
- 38:01to what's going on in the economy and all the crises going
- 38:04on, there is a lot of uncertainty.
- 38:06But once people start to realize there's no reason to panic, or
- 38:09rather maybe panic 1st and get into Bitcoin very quickly, this
- 38:13stuff has has to start ripping like never before.
- 38:16It's gonna RIP anyways. Yeah.
- 38:19Someone say AKA 4 turning vibes. Yeah, I fully endorse this.
- 38:25What's your thoughts on this clip?
- 38:27Yeah, I think 4th turn in, that's a great comment by Thomas
- 38:30in the chat. This is just another reason why
- 38:33I think trying to model the price of Bitcoin moving forward
- 38:36in the next decade, it's going to become more and more
- 38:38unpredictable because again, Bitcoin kind of evolves in what
- 38:41I think is kind of like the quiet era of the fourth turn in.
- 38:46So again, I think the authors of the book make the case we
- 38:48entered it in 2008 and again, this is like a 22 year chapter.
- 38:52So if we are living in a fourth turn in, we'd be looking at 2008
- 38:56to 2030. But it's at the very end of the
- 38:59fourth turning that gets most volatile.
- 39:01Again, we're in 2025, five more years to the end of the fourth
- 39:05turning when we're supposed to see a complete RIP down of the
- 39:09system and new institutions being built.
- 39:12So again, I think things are going to get more interesting.
- 39:15Things are getting more volatile.
- 39:16I love how bullish Matt Hogan is getting from Bitwise there
- 39:21essentially saying $200,000. It's a lock.
- 39:24You can lock it in, baby. That's nice.
- 39:25I think most people would take that to the bank and I typically
- 39:29agree with him. Again, we don't make short term
- 39:31price predictions here on the show and I never do because I'm
- 39:34always wrong. But I, I do think like $200,000,
- 39:38it's pretty conservative for the next year, you know, 12 month
- 39:42kind of outlook, especially when you consider all of the bullish
- 39:45developments and all of the accumulation that's going on
- 39:49right now. Because I think optive right
- 39:51now, I think we're seeing something that I've never seen
- 39:54before in a bull cycle and that is how rapidly this accumulation
- 39:58is just increasing day after day.
- 40:01Yeah, I mean, the craziest part or the craziest number, and I
- 40:04think you might have been the first one to kind of mention
- 40:06this to me. And then Sailor again went on
- 40:09the Bitcoin 2025 conference and actually ever every appearance
- 40:12said since has been saying the same thing.
- 40:14You know, there's only 450 Bitcoin released into the world
- 40:18a day roughly, You know, I think what, 45 to $50 million a day as
- 40:25Matt Hogan was saying, You know, that the ETFs bought essentially
- 40:283 years of the total Bitcoin supply and it only kind of hit
- 40:33what, 70100K? Like the math isn't mathing with
- 40:38all of these supposed billion dollars of liquidity coming into
- 40:42Bitcoin. Of course, in Fiat terms, it
- 40:45doesn't make sense unless there's just an insane number of
- 40:49paper Bitcoin sales out there. Like if these if they're not
- 40:53actually buying Bitcoin, then we could be in a worse position
- 40:56than we saw from FDX. But from what I've been seeing
- 40:59in the data and check Matey and others on Twitter, they are
- 41:03actually acquiring that Bitcoin. Now, of course, there's some
- 41:06rotation here that that is just, you know, financial trickery
- 41:10that's probably kind of keeping the price in a, for lack of
- 41:13better terms, like a suppress channel here.
- 41:16But at a certain point that does break who's going to be the the
- 41:21buyer that basically breaks the the camel's back here.
- 41:24What's going to be that one defining moment to RIP it this
- 41:27bull market? We don't really know.
- 41:29But as Luke's kind of been saying, though, I did do a
- 41:32report with Gemini and they're saying, you know, all the
- 41:35Bitcoin exchange losing Bitcoin is really kind of like it's
- 41:40getting filtered into the ETS. It's kind of just getting
- 41:42circled. But there will be a point where
- 41:46the supply demand economics play out and the price has to give
- 41:50and that's to the upside. I think we are starting to get
- 41:53to the point where we are exhausting all of the sellers
- 41:56out there. We're we are seeing that the
- 41:59price is it's holding really strong above 100K.
- 42:01Again, a great metric is this the longest time it's been above
- 42:03100K? We forget how these cycles play
- 42:06out because it's been so long. You know when it wicked to 20 K
- 42:09was there for like I forget 4 hours or something.
- 42:12You know, the first time we broke 70K it wicked there for
- 42:15about a day. The first time we broke 100K it
- 42:19kind of wicked there for a little bit, then it retraced and
- 42:22now we are holding a solid support at 100K.
- 42:27It's hard not to feel bullish It it's hard to understand how it
- 42:30the price isn't ripping as well. So you know, I do like how Matt
- 42:34Hogan's getting more and more bullish.
- 42:36I think everyone is getting more and more bullish.
- 42:38The longer I said it earlier today, the longer the price
- 42:41stays at these levels, the harder it has to RIP it just I
- 42:45can't see it any other way. I just jinxed it RIP.
- 42:48Actually, it's dumping, it's going down.
- 42:52We're going to get cheap shats on discount.
- 42:55It's not going up, man it. Has to go up eventually and this
- 43:00is where the math will be forced to math.
- 43:03As you said there Opti, I think the price will finally reflect
- 43:09the underlying demand when there's no Bitcoin left on
- 43:12exchanges. I think until then we're going
- 43:14to continue to see paper games. We're going to continue to see
- 43:18the OTC desks drained of Bitcoin.
- 43:22I think this is something that maybe doesn't get talked about
- 43:24enough like the entities who have been quietly accumulating
- 43:28Bitcoin since 2020, they're not just going on Coinbase and Smash
- 43:32buying a billion dollar buy. They're buying it very
- 43:35methodically. They're buying it very
- 43:37carefully. They're, you know, as Michael
- 43:40Saylor described when he first talked about how he initially
- 43:44bought thousands of Bitcoin for micro strategy back in 2020,
- 43:48He's placing hundreds if not thousands of buys every day
- 43:52using this automated software that slowly but surely is buying
- 43:55Bitcoin minute by minute by minutes, not triggering the
- 43:58price to aggressively gap up in any way, shape or form.
- 44:03So what we're seeing is price not react in a violent manner to
- 44:07the supply suffocation that we've seen.
- 44:10But all we have seen is the OTC desks decreased by 80% and 35%
- 44:15of the Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased by 2020.
- 44:18And I think again, for the next two years, maybe it's three
- 44:22years, who knows, but I think there's a good case to be made
- 44:26that we're not going to see any really violent rips or moves in
- 44:30Bitcoin until that supply on the exchanges is drained and it's at
- 44:350 now. I'm not saying we can't rally to
- 44:37304 hundred $500,000 while we still have Bitcoin on the
- 44:41exchanges. I think we can.
- 44:43That's like my base case for probably the next 12 to 24
- 44:46months. We RIP into the three, four,
- 44:49500,000. But I just think the real big
- 44:51move happens once, no Bitcoin on exchanges.
- 44:54And when I say real big move, I'm not talking about $100,000
- 44:57rallies or $100,000 candles, talking about $1,000,000
- 45:01candles. That's when the real fun
- 45:02actually begins. And I think that's the move that
- 45:06most people expect to be happening right now with the
- 45:10amount of adoption we're seeing around the world.
- 45:13I think I, I'm shocked we're still at, you know, $100,000.
- 45:17I think it's purely because of the methodical nature and the
- 45:21methodical methods that these big guys use to buy their
- 45:24Bitcoin. That's why we're not seeing
- 45:25price just RIP overnight. Yeah, 100% I I totally would
- 45:31agree with that. It's I, you know, I again, I
- 45:34really want to believe the what, what do we call them?
- 45:36Godzilla, Omega God candles. I, I forget what they're called
- 45:40now, but one day it will be true.
- 45:42And I think Hoddle said it the best.
- 45:44He's like when I first got in the Bitcoin, I think he said it
- 45:47was like 600 bucks or 200 bucks or something.
- 45:50And then later on, the Bitcoin price would move 200 bucks and I
- 45:53wouldn't be phased. You know, if you got in Bitcoin
- 45:56at 1K, it was huge. And then Bitcoin price moves in
- 46:01one K, you know, variations a day and you don't really care.
- 46:05You know, you get in at 10K, it's huge moment.
- 46:08Like Bitcoin kind of trends a little bit.
- 46:10I remember it hit 10K for the first day.
- 46:12It dropped to 9 K. And we're like, Oh my God, it's
- 46:15over. And now Bitcoin, you know, did
- 46:17its couple 10K fluctuations here.
- 46:21Well, you know, extend that down the line.
- 46:23We did hit 100K. There will be a day when Bitcoin
- 46:27fluctuates 100K a day and etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
- 46:32Bitcoin is again just the global vacuum for capital right now.
- 46:37It's the black hole and this is the opportunity for you to
- 46:41stack. This is why we're here.
- 46:43This is why we are still kind of called idiots.
- 46:45I was actually going to put on the numbers, guys.
- 46:47There was a clip from like 20, I forget 2023 I think when Bitcoin
- 46:51crashed 6.5. It was like on Netflix and the
- 46:54guy was like making fun of us and like, oh, bit corners are
- 46:57dumb, you know? Well it's like how, how, how
- 46:59about them apples? Do you like these apples?
- 47:01We're at 100K106K and who's laughing now?
- 47:06Like this is just a part of being a bit corner.
- 47:08We are idiots for three years and then we got about like 3
- 47:11months where we're geniuses out of a four year cycle.
- 47:15Well, it'll be very obvious that Bitcoiners are correct, that
- 47:18Bitcoin Maxis were correct, and that everyone needed to stack
- 47:22Bitcoin. So that's coming.
- 47:24Your vindication will come. Your vindication will come soon.
- 47:29In the meantime, keep stacking, you know.
- 47:31The biggest vindication you just said, Maxis are correct.
- 47:35I don't know if we've showed the people or not or brought their
- 47:37attention to what everybody's favorite founder and
- 47:40entrepreneur, Charles Hoskinson is doing.
- 47:44I wouldn't bring that up. Yeah, bring it up real quick.
- 47:46I I think I can find the headline and we'll cover it real
- 47:48quick before we go into the news.
- 47:52Let's break it down. So essentially Cardano again,
- 47:56proof of stake altcoin again. For years Charles Hoskinson has
- 48:01been bashing on Bitcoin. He's been saying we don't need
- 48:04Bitcoin. And then all of a sudden
- 48:06recently I believe he was at a conference and he was talking
- 48:09about putting $100 million into Bitcoin and stable coins.
- 48:13This is potentially one of the biggest backflips that I've seen
- 48:17in the Bitcoin space. And this just, those are what we
- 48:20continue to say. Alt coiners love Bitcoin.
- 48:22They just love your Bitcoin. They're trying to get you to buy
- 48:25their shit coin that they print out of thin air and then they
- 48:29just gonna swap it into Bitcoin. So I thought that was pretty
- 48:31crazy that popped out this week and I couldn't believe my eyes
- 48:34when I saw it, but. Yeah, yeah.
- 48:37Here's just a quick Google. Cardano eyes Bitcoin for $1.2
- 48:41billion Treasury. Charles Hoskin floats the idea
- 48:44of $100 million BTC bet. Essentially, here we go.
- 48:49He's proposed converting $100 million worth of ADA into
- 48:52Bitcoin and it's native stable coin.
- 48:56Whatever, whatever, whatever, whatever.
- 48:58The TLDR is essentially what Luke said.
- 49:01Shit corners love Bitcoin. They just love your Bitcoin.
- 49:04And look as someone that came in in 2017 when we were essentially
- 49:09in the trenches on Twitter and you would earn your stripes
- 49:11battling the shit corners. This is what we said forever.
- 49:15That the the even the shit corners out there that try to
- 49:18sell you the utopia, the dreams here, the 100 XS even they
- 49:22understand that the whole ecosystem is built on Bitcoin.
- 49:26Bitcoin is the only thing that matters.
- 49:28If you've watched this show, if you're new to the show, if
- 49:30you're quote UN quote crypto friendly, crypto native or
- 49:33whatever, whatever the newest term is, the only thing that
- 49:36matters is Bitcoin. And now your favorite, I don't
- 49:40know, quote, favorite shit coin creator is essentially saying,
- 49:44Hey, you know, we're going to use Bitcoin to secure our
- 49:47holdings and we're going to do the Bitcoin treasury thing with
- 49:50our shit coin and that's going to boost our holdings.
- 49:53It's like, yeah, why would you buy that thing?
- 49:55It's why would you buy? Why wouldn't you just buy
- 49:57Bitcoin? We've been saying that for a
- 49:59minute. Actually, we're going to touch
- 50:00on that a little later, but let's jump into the news.
- 50:02I do want to cover something very quickly.
- 50:05And then I really want to give Luke a lot of room to just RIP
- 50:08it and get you guys even more bullish.
- 50:09So we're going to get into the news real quick and then we will
- 50:12talk with Luke. I want to give a shout out to
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- 52:36today with Kohl's Card. All right, guys, I think this
- 52:45news is huge. As we've been saying on this
- 52:48show and it usually it's in regards to the strategic Bitcoin
- 52:52reserve, but the global nation state game theory plays out very
- 52:58quickly around the world. And as we've seen in the past,
- 53:01regulations around Bitcoin, the laws around Bitcoin, the bans
- 53:04around Bitcoin have all changed. They're in different
- 53:06jurisdiction. But ever since Trump came out,
- 53:09we are starting to see that everyone is trying to one up
- 53:14each other. And now this is the type of
- 53:16Bitcoin regulation legislation that I want to see more of and I
- 53:20really hope the US follows soon. This would be the ultimate win.
- 53:25So what am I talking about? Of course I'm talking about
- 53:29this. Thailand approves five year
- 53:31crypto tax exemption. Thailand's crypto income tax
- 53:35waiver applies to crypto sales made through licensed crypto
- 53:38asset service providers from 2025 to late 2029.
- 53:42Now, of course, I want to see this forever, you know, for the
- 53:45rest of time. But hey, we'll take a 5 year
- 53:48exemption on your taxes in regards to capital.
- 53:53So Thailand has approved tax exemptions on income from the
- 53:56sale of crypto currencies like Bitcoin for five years.
- 53:58According to a Ministry of Finance announcement, Thailand
- 54:02will waive the capital gains tax on crypto sales made through
- 54:04licensed crypto asset services providers in the period from
- 54:07January 1st, 2025 to December 31st, 2029, Deputy Finance
- 54:11Minister Halupan I'm Mornevet Apologies said in a statement
- 54:17issued on Tuesday. According to the minister, the
- 54:20measure is designed to strengthen Thailand's position
- 54:22as a global financial hub and one of the first countries to
- 54:25adopt laws for digital assets in their taxation.
- 54:28The tax measure also aims to promote crypto trading in
- 54:31Thailand under the supervision of the Thai SEC in compliance
- 54:34with AML policies recommended by the Financial Action Task Force.
- 54:38Now, of course, we don't want to facilitate more trading, but we
- 54:44would love to see the exemption of capital gains in the US Of
- 54:47course, that is like the final thing.
- 54:49I think really holding a lot of people back to using Bitcoin and
- 54:53commerce, accepting Bitcoin, etcetera.
- 54:56That would be the huge news. Now, this isn't the only one
- 55:00here. We also know, you know, Czech
- 55:02Republic has done this. If you huddle your Bitcoin for
- 55:04three years, you get a capital gains tax exemption.
- 55:07Well, now we also saw that Brazil is introducing their bill
- 55:12to remove all capital gains taxes on Bitcoin.
- 55:15This is what I want to see more of.
- 55:17Again, I've said in the past, if the US follows this trend here,
- 55:22then I am all for this administration going pro
- 55:25Bitcoin. This is the type of stuff I want
- 55:27to see more happen and I really hope that we do see the game
- 55:31theory around this start to happen everywhere.
- 55:33We did see some states kind of announce this in the US, not not
- 55:37the states I personally want to live in, but hey, you know it,
- 55:40it is kind of incentivizing me to to even consider this.
- 55:45But we finally gotten to a point where, you know, we're not just
- 55:49talking about leaving the US because they're going to attack
- 55:51us. The Plan B model here in regards
- 55:54to your passports, it's starting to work out where you're like,
- 55:56hey, you know, I was joking with Luke early.
- 55:59I'm like, Thailand's looking like a good place to live now.
- 56:02I don't know, you know, I like tropical beach weather.
- 56:05Like, you know, this, this starting to this starting to
- 56:08play out really well. This is starting to look like
- 56:10the sovereign individual thesis play out in real time where
- 56:13governments have to compete for you as a citizen.
- 56:18I love this. I think this is huge news.
- 56:21I I want to see more countries follow this trend, not just
- 56:25acquiring, you know, Bitcoin and and essentially using fancy
- 56:28legislations to legally permit them to steal your Bitcoin.
- 56:33You know work for the Bitcoin like everyone else.
- 56:35So I I love this shouts out to Thailand.
- 56:38I think this is a great move. So Luke very quickly look, you
- 56:41are a nomad. So you know when, when Luke
- 56:45coming from Thailand. Yeah, I thought you were
- 56:48actually going to say Thailand has those really beautiful.
- 56:51I don't say that something else for a minute.
- 56:54They're all people. All I will say is that yes,
- 56:57travelling has its advantages. You can go and see whatever
- 57:01local tropical beaches that you want to see.
- 57:04And I would absolutely love to see Thailand do something
- 57:08related to Bitcoin, whether that's scrapping taxes for five
- 57:12years, that would be huge. Imagine if they started started
- 57:15actually selling passports for Bitcoin.
- 57:17I would potentially put Thailand pretty high on my list of places
- 57:22to go to. Obviously El Salvador created a
- 57:24lot of buzz and a lot of interest.
- 57:26When they floated, they didn't just float the idea.
- 57:29They openly said come buy a passport.
- 57:31It's a million big ones. I mean, I know they got a lot of
- 57:34people who went down there and bought that second passport for
- 57:38$1,000,000. Having a second passport, it's
- 57:40incredibly valuable, especially if you can not pay 10s of
- 57:45thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars of your tax
- 57:49money to your corrupt bureaucratic government who is,
- 57:53let's just going to say spend your hard earned money on things
- 57:57it shouldn't be spending its money on.
- 57:59As simple as that. OK, so hey, if Thailand came out
- 58:02with a, you know, a passport purchasable in Bitcoin, I reckon
- 58:06you'd see me down there in Thailand pretty quickly, Opti.
- 58:09And I reckon I would be trying to convince you to get down
- 58:12there on to Thailand and check out the tropical beaches with
- 58:15me. Yeah, that sounds great.
- 58:17And Luke, don't don't check the chat you're getting.
- 58:20You're getting nuked. Guys, this is a family friendly
- 58:22show. Chill in the chat, guys.
- 58:25All right, well, look, I have to move on really quick because
- 58:27Luke does have to jump off and I really want him to hit a thread.
- 58:31He he just launched yesterday, or rather maybe this morning.
- 58:34So I'm going to set it up to you up, Luke, you RIP it.
- 58:37And then we get out of here for the day and, you know, go enjoy
- 58:40ourselves a great Tuesday. All right, so here we go for the
- 58:43culture. I want to give a shout out to
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- 1:00:28All right, guys, so I'm just going to set the stage here.
- 1:00:31I want to read a few headlines that I've kind of been alluding
- 1:00:34to on the show for the last week or so.
- 1:00:37There's been multiple ones, but this is a new trend.
- 1:00:40As we've noticed, Bitcoin treasury companies have become
- 1:00:42all the rage. It's a new narrative.
- 1:00:44It's a new hype cycle. For better or worse, this is
- 1:00:47what everyone's talking about. We see the stocks going
- 1:00:49absolutely nuclear. Well, we're seeing, you know,
- 1:00:53some legacy media pick up on this trend and it's very
- 1:00:58interesting. They're bent here.
- 1:01:00So we're over here on Reuters and it goes, what are Bitcoin
- 1:01:02treasury strategies, the latest trend in the public markets.
- 1:01:05Of course, they mentioned Sailor.
- 1:01:07They try to break this down, but I just really want you guys to
- 1:01:10zoom in on the headline. Obviously they are kind of
- 1:01:13picking on Sailor recently and this one I saw this morning,
- 1:01:17which is interesting. The fundamental problem with
- 1:01:19Microstrategy's Bitcoin buying plan and the literal problem was
- 1:01:23that the Bitcoin price is going up.
- 1:01:25So they're going to buy less, which means they might not be
- 1:01:27able to issue as much debt. And you know, if you if, if you
- 1:01:32like Bitcoin treasury companies, maybe you should just do what
- 1:01:35the Bitcoin treasury company is doing themselves and just buy
- 1:01:38Bitcoin yourself. Though they said you spot ETF's
- 1:01:41and you know, we say the same thing like just buy Bitcoin
- 1:01:44yourself. Probably the best thing to do
- 1:01:45here if this is what they're doing, if you don't want to take
- 1:01:49the risk of the over leveraging yourself or buying a stock of a
- 1:01:52more leverage company than just buy the Bitcoin yourself.
- 1:01:55But it is interesting. We are seeing these trends right
- 1:01:57now where Bitcoin treasury stocks is all the rage.
- 1:02:02The legacy media is picking it up.
- 1:02:04And then I saw this chart here from Blockware.
- 1:02:06Shout out the blockware team. And I think this is the reason
- 1:02:10the number of publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on their
- 1:02:12balance sheet has increased by 135% year to date.
- 1:02:16So in 2024, there were 64 in 202343, etcetera, etcetera,
- 1:02:21etcetera. In 2020, there was 2.
- 1:02:24And this year alone, as of 6/17, literally this morning, there's
- 1:02:29151. And as we've been hearing and
- 1:02:32talking about, there's potentially thousands on the
- 1:02:35horizon. Things are going to get
- 1:02:37absolutely insane, which leads me to Luke's thread where he is
- 1:02:43talking about Bitcoin treasury companies.
- 1:02:45So Luke, I already kind of know where you head with this thread
- 1:02:50on what the big idea is, but can you explain it for the audience?
- 1:02:54What is your big idea? And you actually kind of alluded
- 1:02:57to it earlier on the show. But just to rehash the idea, why
- 1:03:03is this not only catching all the hype right now?
- 1:03:07Legacy media is picking up, but what is this going to mean to
- 1:03:12the Bitcoin that is currently circulating or about to be
- 1:03:15released? Or, you know, the Bitcoiners
- 1:03:17Hodling their coin right now? Well, let's not rehash an idea,
- 1:03:22Opti. Let's talk about something I
- 1:03:23haven't talked about on simply Bitcoin before, and that is the
- 1:03:27double halving. So around 18 months ago, the
- 1:03:31beginning of 2024, we were leading into the halving and I
- 1:03:36was looking at the supply suffocation again.
- 1:03:38I've been screaming about the supply suffocation for five
- 1:03:41years now. And what I found really
- 1:03:43interesting was if you actually look at the number of Bitcoins
- 1:03:46circulating available for sale, you can actually make a pretty
- 1:03:50strong case that we're not actually seeing typical halving
- 1:03:53cycles anymore. We're seeing something
- 1:03:55completely different. Because again, what normally
- 1:03:58happens, what triggers Bitcoin bull runs every four years, It's
- 1:04:02the new circulating supply or the new incoming supply getting
- 1:04:07cut in half, right? So the last halving we had, we
- 1:04:11went from having something like 330,000 Bitcoin mined a year cut
- 1:04:17down to 164,000 Bitcoin mined a year.
- 1:04:22So that halving was a deficit of 160,000 Bitcoin per year.
- 1:04:29And what's absolutely fascinating is that over the
- 1:04:32past six months alone, we've seen 500,000 Bitcoin ripped from
- 1:04:38the exchanges. So again, I, I don't think these
- 1:04:41normal halving cycles are the same.
- 1:04:44I don't even think that my original article that I wrote
- 1:04:47about the double halving in 2024 is accurate because I think we
- 1:04:52are now seeing a quadruple halving this year.
- 1:04:55And this is again, why I'm just really fascinated by the growing
- 1:05:00acceleration in these public treasury companies.
- 1:05:04Now, the image that I started off with at the beginning of
- 1:05:07this thread, it was showing that over the past 30 days we've seen
- 1:05:1128 new treasury companies enter the Bitcoin space.
- 1:05:17And I wanted to actually have a little bit of a look.
- 1:05:19I said, OK, there's A130150 public corporations.
- 1:05:22What does that actually mean for the price of Bitcoin?
- 1:05:25How much Bitcoin do they own? So we can see that nearly we're
- 1:05:29seeing a new Bitcoin company created every single day.
- 1:05:34This is how rapidly this trend is accelerating, which was
- 1:05:37showed really nicely by that chart that you showed Opti of
- 1:05:41block Ware. OK, so we've seen a new treasury
- 1:05:44company added a day. What does that mean?
- 1:05:47Well, on average, I crunched the numbers and I found that each
- 1:05:51treasury company on average holds 6000 Bitcoin.
- 1:05:56And I calculated the maths and I said, OK, what happens if we see
- 1:06:00another 27 new treasury companies enter the Bitcoin
- 1:06:04space every month for the next 12 months?
- 1:06:08I don't think that's super crazy.
- 1:06:09I mean, we're prices trending higher or it doesn't look like
- 1:06:13we're going to be hitting a recession soon.
- 1:06:15Macro looks somewhat steady despite the fact there's
- 1:06:18shenanigans happening in the Middle East again.
- 1:06:21I just think all of these things will be, let's say, catalysts.
- 1:06:24I think excuse is maybe a word that could get me into trouble.
- 1:06:28Let's just say all of these things will be good excuses to
- 1:06:31print more money. So again, I I don't think it's a
- 1:06:34crazy assumption to say what happens if a new 27 treasury
- 1:06:37companies are added every single month for the next 12 months?
- 1:06:41What if they want to aspire to accumulate the average Bitcoin
- 1:06:46treasury size, which is about 6300 Bitcoin?
- 1:06:50Well, this would show that new entrants into the public
- 1:06:54treasury space would accumulate 2.3 million Bitcoin over the
- 1:06:57next 12 months. We all know that there's
- 1:07:00somewhere between 2.12.4 million Bitcoin on exchanges.
- 1:07:04So just if new public companies keep entering the space in the
- 1:07:08same way they did over the past month's worth of data, again,
- 1:07:12it's not like a week's worth of data.
- 1:07:13It's not completely insignificant caveats applied.
- 1:07:17It's a month's worth of data. But if this trend continues just
- 1:07:20at the same rate, there's no Bitcoin on exchanges in
- 1:07:23literally 350 days. And again, this is completely
- 1:07:26ignoring the existing 150 public companies.
- 1:07:31We're assuming that they also don't buy 600,000 Bitcoin like
- 1:07:36they did over the past 12 months.
- 1:07:38So again, I just think we're really being set up here for
- 1:07:40what I think is going to be a supply shock of the century.
- 1:07:43And I think it's going to be absolutely mind boggling to see
- 1:07:47what happens. And I just think so many people
- 1:07:49every day we just say, oh, there's a new company raising a
- 1:07:52billion dollars to buy Bitcoin. I just think we're getting
- 1:07:54lulled to sleep and Bitcoin is just becoming normalized with
- 1:07:58the, the idea of new public companies doesn't move the price
- 1:08:02and it's insignificant. And I just think what's
- 1:08:05happening is the beach balls just getting pushed under the
- 1:08:08water and eventually that thing is going to spring out of the
- 1:08:11water and hit some chaps on the noses.
- 1:08:13OK. So I, I think we're in for what
- 1:08:16I think is the perfect storm. And I think the real Bitcoin
- 1:08:20super cycle is just kind of loading.
- 1:08:24He said super cycle. Uh, oh.
- 1:08:29Well, everyone loves when Luke comes on and you're actually
- 1:08:32getting trolled in the chat a little bit like Luke's making up
- 1:08:34theories again here. But the first time you told me
- 1:08:38the what you call a double halving cycle or, or yeah,
- 1:08:41double halving, I was like, what are you, what are you even
- 1:08:43talking about? I'm like, what?
- 1:08:46What, what are you saying here, Luke?
- 1:08:48But it does make a lot of sense. Obviously the halvings every
- 1:08:51four years now with all the supposed and I'm I'm going to
- 1:08:54use quotes here, you know, supposed Bitcoin buys from these
- 1:08:59corporate treasury Bitcoin plays.
- 1:09:02They're literally pretty much having the supply, if not buying
- 1:09:06years worth of supply here. At a certain point, something
- 1:09:09has to give. We we also heard this week, you
- 1:09:12know, Metaplanic got to 1010 thousand coins surpassing
- 1:09:15Coinbase and now they themselves want to get up to 200,000 coins.
- 1:09:20That's just one entity. Now we kind of forget just how
- 1:09:25competitive these people are, these companies are.
- 1:09:28And actually there was, we brought it up on the show
- 1:09:31before, you know, Saylor was even kind of alluding to this in
- 1:09:34one of his recent clips, actually the one with Jordan
- 1:09:37Peterson. He's like, you know, I saw what
- 1:09:39Elon Musk was doing. I saw what Zuck was doing, and
- 1:09:42it pissed him off. And he was like, yo, I need to
- 1:09:44do more. I need to figure out something.
- 1:09:46I need to find my edge. And of course, his edge was
- 1:09:48acquiring Bitcoin. Well, once those billionaires
- 1:09:51start figuring out what Sailor's done, or rather, you know, fully
- 1:09:55grok what he's doing and actually see the potential for
- 1:09:58what Bitcoin does, then they're going to compete with Sailor to
- 1:10:02try to catch up. The Sailor.
- 1:10:03Everyone is competing for the coin right now.
- 1:10:06You should be competing with everyone in the chat.
- 1:10:08Like I want to outstack you. And actually, it kind of reminds
- 1:10:11me of games we used to play in 20/20/18.
- 1:10:14Shouts out to the legend. American Hollow.
- 1:10:16He kind of kicked it, kicked this off.
- 1:10:18He was the first one to kind of gamify it, but we used to always
- 1:10:22kind of play games of, yo, I'm going to out stack you this
- 1:10:25cycle. Can I, you know, I'm working
- 1:10:27more shifts, working more jobs, I'm sacrificing more to acquire
- 1:10:32more Bitcoin. Like once that fundamental
- 1:10:35paradigm shift happens, it's literally game over here.
- 1:10:39And these corporate Bitcoin treasuries, I think are right in
- 1:10:41the midst of this. And again, you know, if you
- 1:10:45don't know now, you know, like the price is going to go up.
- 1:10:48But hey, we're not just here for we're we're really here for the
- 1:10:51tech, bro. We're here for the tech.
- 1:10:53I I'm here for the tech, the tech.
- 1:10:54And the freedom go. Up you know NGU is cool, but
- 1:10:58freedom go up in the tech. I'm I'm here for the tech bro
- 1:11:01aunt. Will Aunt Will.
- 1:11:05Yeah. I just think it's inevitable,
- 1:11:06man. I think I, I think what we're
- 1:11:08saying is just a continuation of the trend.
- 1:11:11And if that continues like 20-30 is I think going to melt some
- 1:11:16faces. I didn't.
- 1:11:16I didn't think people are prepared for what we're going to
- 1:11:18see in the next five years. Yeah, I love it.
- 1:11:21Actually, Sat wise Jenks in the chat, this is a great comment.
- 1:11:25So he goes, Bitcoin is math, that's why it's winning and
- 1:11:27that's why mathematical base analysis is the most accurate
- 1:11:31when predicting Bitcoin. For example, this is the first
- 1:11:34bull run with scarcity at 95% already mine again.
- 1:11:39Hold on bars, bars by sat wise guys.
- 1:11:42This is fundamentally a different cycle.
- 1:11:45We still have yet to see how it plays out.
- 1:11:49But if you're stacking Bitcoin, if you continue to stack
- 1:11:51Bitcoin, if you continue to take it into custody, you're going to
- 1:11:55be fine. You're going to be perfectly
- 1:11:57fine. Move moving forward.
- 1:11:59Don't take your foot off the gas continue to come to the show.
- 1:12:02We'll keep you updated on the news.
- 1:12:03We'll bring Luke on, you know, as much as possible to just keep
- 1:12:07you even more bullet hearted as possible.
- 1:12:09Make sure make sure we get your dopamine going with some crazy
- 1:12:12predictions here. But based on the math, you know
- 1:12:16the the simple math here again, it's going up forever guys.
- 1:12:20Well, this is today's show. I know Luke has to run, so I'm
- 1:12:23sure we could kind of break this topic down longer.
- 1:12:25But Luke, if you got a pop off, pop off and I will to sign off
- 1:12:29the show. So appreciate it dude, and I'll
- 1:12:31talk to you later. See you guys, thanks for tuning
- 1:12:34in. Thanks for putting up my bad
- 1:12:35haircut and dodgy economic rants.
- 1:12:39And the accent all right guys, it's your boy Opti.
- 1:12:44Like I said to start off the show, if you like the show,
- 1:12:47smash the like button comment on this video.
- 1:12:50Are we just ridiculous bullet hearted?
- 1:12:53Is our math math in? Is our math lining up?
- 1:12:56And of course, if you want to see us, we go live Monday
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- 1:13:12He created a new show. We even got shorts for your
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- 1:13:19game right now. We love you guys and we'll see
- 1:13:22you tomorrow. Peace out.
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