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Medical Breakthroughs Are Quietly Stealing the Spotlight · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: with Chuck Zotta and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike, and Tucker with you here, and we kick
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  Speaker 2: things off in the aftermath of NVIDIA's earnings report yesterday.
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  Speaker 2: In which the big news wasn't actually the quarter that
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  Speaker 2: they had, but rather the guidance they gave for fiscal
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  Speaker 2: year 2028, which starts in February of 27. I know
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  Speaker 2: that's confusing. Why can't companies just align their fiscal year
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  Speaker 2: with their calendar year? Is it really that hard to do?
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure the accountants listening are going to be like,
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  Speaker 2: you idiot. Yes, Chuck, you idiot. How could you think that?
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  Speaker 2: But I don't know. The whole idea of a fiscal
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  Speaker 2: year to me. Put a man on the moon. We
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  Speaker 2: can change the fiscal year. I don't know. We barely
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  Speaker 2: got through Y2K. Why can't you just put your fiscal
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  Speaker 2: year starting January 1? In any case, NVIDIA said, hey,
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  Speaker 2: our revenue in fiscal 2028 isn't going to be 44% growth.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to be 70%.
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  Speaker 2: And so that's why you have NVIDIA up about 7% today.
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  Speaker 2: in response. In terms of what we're seeing more broadly
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  Speaker 2: in markets, nice move up across the board here. The
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  Speaker 2: S & P is up about half a percent. Dow
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  Speaker 2: is up a quarter percent. NASDAQ composite up about one
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  Speaker 2: to quarter percent. So all three major indices in the green.
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  Speaker 2: Russell 2000 just kind of chopping wood right now. Not
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  Speaker 2: too much movement there. Ten-year treasury down one basis point
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  Speaker 2: to 4.654 percent. At least at this point, it seems
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  Speaker 2: like long-term yields have found kind of a short-term peak
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  Speaker 2: about a week ago in the wake of Scott Besant
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  Speaker 2: and the Treasury changing some plans as it relates to
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  Speaker 2: Treasury buybacks. So for now, maybe we've got a local,
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  Speaker 2: you know, top in yields, but we'll see how things
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  Speaker 2: hold up over the next couple weeks. Obviously, big day
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  Speaker 2: tomorrow with Kevin Warsh speaking at the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium.
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  Speaker 2: Dollar index basically flat today at 99.105. Gold down $ 8. 99
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  Speaker 2: an ounce to $ 46.
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  Speaker 4: 44.
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  Speaker 2: And we've got crude oil. West Texas Intermediate now off $ 0. 11
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  Speaker 2: a barrel to $ 82. 12. AAA national average for gas prices.
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  Speaker 2: Basically holding steady down this extra decimal point. It's throwing
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  Speaker 2: you off. It's eating you alive. It's going to kill
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  Speaker 2: me every time because I don't know what to do
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  Speaker 2: with it. Let me just cover it with my... Okay,
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  Speaker 2: we're down one-tenth of a.
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  Speaker 2: Of a penny, of a cent. Yeah, we're down one-tenth
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  Speaker 2: of a cent on gas overnight. Diesel is off about
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  Speaker 2: a tenth of a cent.
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  Speaker 5: Actually, no, diesel's off a cent. Why do we need
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  Speaker 5: to go up to four decimal points on gas? Again,
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  Speaker 5: we just need it to the nearest penny. We don't
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  Speaker 5: even make pennies anymore. We don't even need to go
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  Speaker 5: to the penny. We can round it to the nearest nickel.
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  Speaker 2: Just do it to the nearest dollar. What's the worst
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  Speaker 2: thing that could happen? Gas is somewhere near $ 4. We
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  Speaker 2: don't know exactly where, but it's there. Because we stopped
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  Speaker 2: making pennies. Diesel remaining near its cycle highs at $ 5. 61
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  Speaker 2: right now, so that's what's going on in markets and... Thanks, AAA,
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  Speaker 2: for that extra digit. Very helpful. We appreciate you. Let's
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  Speaker 2: talk a little bit about a not great piece that
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  Speaker 2: I found, or that Tucker found in Barron's. It says,
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  Speaker 2: forget the VIX, bond yields are the market's new fear index. Nope,
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  Speaker 2: they're not. And the answer is no, they're not. This
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  Speaker 2: piece is making, I'll just, I'll read from it, just
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  Speaker 2: to make it clear. Quote, Treasury yields are acting as
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  Speaker 2: Wall Street's new fear gauge, supplanting traditional risk measures as
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  Speaker 2: investors parse the impact of a host of fiscal, monetary,
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  Speaker 2: and geopolitical issues that are piling up into the final
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  Speaker 2: months of the year.
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  Speaker 5: Bonds might be measuring that, but that's not what the
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  Speaker 5: VIX does. Well, there are two different problems. The first is,
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  Speaker 5: what does the VIX do? And we can talk about
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  Speaker 5: that in a minute. The second is, is this actually
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  Speaker 5: what bonds are doing? And every time yields go up
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  Speaker 5: without question, every time yields go up a quarter percent,
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  Speaker 5: maybe even a little more, you get people coming out
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  Speaker 5: of the woodwork being like, Chuck, it's the debt. That's
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  Speaker 5: the voice they use. I get these voicemails.
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  Speaker 3: Chuck, it's the debt.
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  Speaker 2: And I'm like, okay, what about it?
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  Speaker 3: It's pushing up the yields, man.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, so the yields are rising because we have too
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  Speaker 2: much debt.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, the yields are high!
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  Speaker 2: Okay, okay, I got it. Do you have to yell
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  Speaker 2: at me?
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  Speaker 3: I do, because the yields are high!
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  Speaker 2: All right, Cartman. Okay, so the yields are high. I
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  Speaker 2: got it. So let me ask you this. If we
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  Speaker 2: wanted to look just as an example, at the end
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  Speaker 2: of 2023... When the 10-year Treasury saw its yield go
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  Speaker 2: from 4.997% down to 3.785%, which is a decrease, might
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  Speaker 2: I add.
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  Speaker 5: Well, obviously, because we paid down all the nation's debt.
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  Speaker 5: Of 1.2%. Did the amount of debt the U.S. owed
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  Speaker 5: go down during that time?
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  Speaker 3: No, but it doesn't matter. It's the debt.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, so here's the problem, is that yields can rise
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  Speaker 2: for any number of different reasons.
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  Speaker 5: And it could, in part, be fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical issues,
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  Speaker 5: in part, that are piling up and creating this problem.
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  Speaker 2: Could be. 110%, okay? I fully acknowledge that. But if
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  Speaker 2: it were really just about the debt, then it would
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  Speaker 2: be something where, okay, in 2019, as an example... where
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  Speaker 2: the 10-year treasury went from, you know, between early 2019
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  Speaker 2: and early 2020, where the 10-year went from 3.2 to
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  Speaker 2: under 1%. Again, remember, like, that's where we got to
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  Speaker 2: at one point. Was that because the U.S. debt situation improved? No,
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  Speaker 2: we issued a ton of debt to pay for stuff
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  Speaker 2: during COVID and all that. It was because rates went
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  Speaker 2: to zero and people thought they'd stay zero forever because
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  Speaker 2: no one knew what the economy would do. And... Ultimately,
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  Speaker 2: debt markets, like every other market, they are about supply
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  Speaker 2: and demand. Now, they get manipulated a little bit by governments.
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  Speaker 2: Every single government does this. So before you, like, single
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  Speaker 2: out the U.S. government for being, like, uniquely interventionist in
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  Speaker 2: its debt markets, every government does this because they want
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  Speaker 2: to have a robust market for their debt. So here's
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  Speaker 2: the deal. There are a ton of different reasons. In general,
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  Speaker 2: supply of debt tends to move pretty consistently up at
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  Speaker 2: a pretty, like... Devastating pace. Not even devastating, pretty predictable pace.
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  Speaker 2: We see the budget for the year when these continuing
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  Speaker 2: resolutions get signed because no one actually does a full
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  Speaker 2: budget anymore. And so we look at it and we say... okay, like,
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  Speaker 2: here's how much debt the U.S. is going to add
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  Speaker 2: this year. The CBO scores it and says, here's how
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  Speaker 2: much debt is going to come on. While predictable, I'll
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  Speaker 2: still call it devastating. But yes, go on.
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  Speaker 1: Yes.
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  Speaker 2: So we know how much new debt is going to
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  Speaker 2: get issued every year. And it's not like once we
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  Speaker 2: know that, the bond market says, well, call it a year, like,
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  Speaker 2: we're just not going to move. No, because there are
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  Speaker 2: other things that move it. And namely, it's the relationship
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  Speaker 2: between growth, inflation, and how that impacts the demand side.
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  Speaker 2: of the ledger, because demand is very much the piece
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  Speaker 2: that tends to move much more from a day-to-day basis. Supply,
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  Speaker 2: we know what's coming on for government debt. We know
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  Speaker 2: what's coming on. If you want to make a case that, hey,
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  Speaker 2: there's a bunch more AI debt this year that we
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  Speaker 2: didn't expect, and so that's, you know, additional supply for markets, fine,
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  Speaker 2: I'll buy that at the margin. Like, you can make
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  Speaker 2: a case for that for me. But the reason why
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  Speaker 2: in the last six months... that yields have gone from
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  Speaker 2: 4% on the 10-year to 4.6% isn't because we suddenly
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  Speaker 2: woke up and were like, hey, do you guys know
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  Speaker 2: that we have $ 40 trillion in debt? We didn't do that.
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  Speaker 2: We had $ 39. 5. We know, guys. We've known for a while.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not saying this is good. I'm just saying that
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  Speaker 2: we've known. What has happened this year is that inflation
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  Speaker 2: has been more persistent than people wanted it to be
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  Speaker 2: or thought it would be for a number of reasons.
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  Speaker 2: And growth has been stronger than people thought it would
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  Speaker 2: be as well. It's just that inflation is eating up
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  Speaker 2: more of that growth, and so real growth is smaller
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  Speaker 2: than we thought it would be, but this is the
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  Speaker 2: picture that we're seeing. And this is not just a U.S. phenomenon. No,
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  Speaker 2: this is happening worldwide.
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  Speaker 5: Yields are rising across the globe, in part because people
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  Speaker 5: are worried about persistent inflation and fairly strong growth.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, this is not a U.S.-based phenomenon. that is occurring.
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  Speaker 2: It's basically happening everywhere. If you go and take a
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  Speaker 2: look at one-year moves in 10-year government yields, Japan's 10-year treasury...
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  Speaker 2: Up 127 basis points. Australia is up 77.
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  Speaker 3: Latvia.
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  Speaker 2: Anyone, you know, follow Latvian debt closely?
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  Speaker 1: I don't.
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  Speaker 2: It's up 71 basis points. France up 59.
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  Speaker 1: Germany, 55.
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  Speaker 2: Singapore, 51. Portugal, 45. The Netherlands, 44.
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  Speaker 5: Sweden, 43.
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  Speaker 2: The U.S., 43. We're basically the Swedes.
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  Speaker 4: So.
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  Speaker 5: If you want to see some interesting studies, there's some
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  Speaker 5: interesting stuff that I think is out there about the U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Debt.
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  Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with rates moving.
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  Speaker 5: It has to do with the fact that in generations past,
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  Speaker 5: or just years past, the U.S. debt got kind of
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  Speaker 5: a special lower interest rate. Today, when you go look
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  Speaker 5: at the cost of U.S. debt, the interest rate, compared to, say,
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  Speaker 5: Euro debt, and you adjust it for currencies, it's.
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  Speaker 2: About the same. There's no special rate that the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: is getting.
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  Speaker 5: When you go and compare it to the debt of
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  Speaker 5: a very credit-worthy corporate borrower, so again, let's say you
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  Speaker 5: take a Microsoft bond and then you buy insurance on
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  Speaker 5: that bond and compare it to the interest rate on
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  Speaker 5: a U.S. government bond, it's about the same. There used
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  Speaker 5: to be this special status that the government had, that
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  Speaker 5: the U.S. government had, in part because of the special
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  Speaker 5: status that the U.S. has generally, and that's dissipated and
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  Speaker 5: in some studies entirely gone away over the course of
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  Speaker 5: the last few years. And again, I don't know the
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  Speaker 5: why to that question either, but any number of these
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  Speaker 5: different things about the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Could be at fault. And that to me is an
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  Speaker 2: interesting piece rather than, oh, interest rates are up because
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  Speaker 2: of X, Y, or Z. But also, bond yields going up,
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  Speaker 2: not necessarily bad. It could just mean stronger growth. And
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  Speaker 2: in stronger growth, investors say, hey, we don't want to
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  Speaker 2: own as many bonds because the returns aren't going to
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  Speaker 2: be good enough. We're going to go buy stocks or
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  Speaker 2: other risk assets instead. And so bonds could sell off
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  Speaker 2: because of that.
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  Speaker 3: So.
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  Speaker 2: I really don't enjoy this idea that, hey, bond yields
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  Speaker 2: going up mean you have to be nervous. No, normally
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  Speaker 2: when bond yields go down, that's when you got to
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  Speaker 2: be nervous because investors are saying the economy is worsening
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: and we want to flock to safety. Like when you
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: hear about investors flocking to safety, that means that bonds
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  Speaker 2: are getting bid. Investors flocking to safety does not mean
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  Speaker 2: they leave bonds. Now, what you do have, if you
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  Speaker 2: want to make a case for hey, when bond yields
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  Speaker 2: go up and your currency weakens, is that a problem?
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  Speaker 2: The answer is a resounding yes. We saw this during
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  Speaker 2: Liz Truss's head of lettuce tenure. We saw this during
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  Speaker 2: the Liberation Day fears from about a year and a
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  Speaker 2: half ago. Those are things that concern every government because
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  Speaker 2: if your currency is weakening, even as you are offering
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  Speaker 2: to pay people more interest, that suggests a bigger fundamental problem.
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  Speaker 2: Thus far, that happened for like three days, you know,
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  Speaker 2: in this episode. I am not willing to say that
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  Speaker 2: that's like a new trend. Yes, you need a little
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: bit more data to be able to say that. So
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: let's take a quick break. When we return, let's talk
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit about the news out of the FDA today.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Some very exciting stuff.
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• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Mike, it seems like one of the underreported stories of
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: this year, in my opinion, is that we're seeing just
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: some medical breakthroughs that are astounding, if I'm being honest
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: with them, and other ones that are on the verge
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: of going through full trials that are just Mind-blowing in
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: terms of what they potentially mean. Yeah. We covered one
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: last week with the— maybe it was two weeks ago— with Moderna's
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: new mRNA vaccine for— Melanomas. melanomas that reduced the recurrence
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: rate by 50% in trials. Today, we've got the FDA
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: approving a drug from Revolution Medicines called Razenq.
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but either way, Revolution Medicines has never
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: before gotten an FDA-approved drug.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: And this one is for subjects with pancreatic cancer, which
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: is one of the most aggressive and not that any
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: like form of cancer is like worse than others. They
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: all are awful. Like cancer sucks. And anyone who says
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: like one is like, it's just, they're all bad, but
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: pancreatic is one of the most aggressive ones. It's often
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: not caught until later in the cycle as well, because
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: initial symptoms don't really look like much of anything to
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: most people. And so by and large, if you get
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, projected life expectancies are very, very
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: short and, and the odds of survival over any extended
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: period are very slim. And basically, this drug that they have,
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: that's now approved, is saying that they can extend the
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: life of subjects to nearly 13 months, twice as long
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: as those on chemotherapy alone. It might be longer, it's
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: just they haven't been testing it long enough to prove
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: if there are.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Basically, you know, more beneficial effects that you get out
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: of this as well. It does have some, you know,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: particularly literally ugly side effects, including skin rashes. Skin rashes.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know if anyone saw the interview that former
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Senator Ben Sasse gave on CNBC earlier this year where
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: his face was just a patchwork of rashes. He was diagnosed,
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: I think, last fall and has been on this drug
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: recently trying to, you know, during his battle with cancer.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: But I got to tell you, some of the stuff
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: that we're seeing that is developing gives me real optimism
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: that the next five to 10 years could be truly
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: transformative in medicine.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, because what people are saying that have much more
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: qualification than I do about this is these forms of
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: treatments that are being highly customized to the individual are
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: indicative of kind of breakthrough technology that can be applied
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: to other areas. And so I don't, claim to know
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: enough about this. But two things that come to mind
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: for me are we, again, experts are saying they may
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: be the type of breakthrough technology that puts us on
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: the cusp of many other treatments like this. Two would
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: be given how they are developed and targeted and customized,
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: probably going to be very expensive. They would be expensive
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: no matter what you're going to do because you're treating
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: life-threatening cancer. Um, but you know, this drug, for instance,
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: on the pancreatic cancer, you know, estimated cost right now
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: is about half a million dollars a year for the treatments. So, um, yeah,
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  Speaker 5: I mean, again, as you said, AI has been kind
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: of sucking up all the oxygen in.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: The room over the course of the last year, but, uh.
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: In the medical space, there is some fascinating stuff going
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: on right now. And we, you know, we're paving over
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: the whole phenomenon of GLP-1 drugs that have been on
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: the market for the last, three or four years and
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: are having a massive impact on health, weight, et cetera. Yeah.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It's again, there's, there's just some wild stuff. The one
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: that I think is the other one that out there
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: that caught my eye earlier this year was maybe three
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: or four months ago. You've got, it's a, it's a
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: single shot, basically vaccine that permanently lowers cholesterol and, By 50%. Oh,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: I heard. Yeah, I remember hearing about that. It's like, the, like,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: statins are gone. Like, it's just like, okay, like, this
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: is it for most people. And, I mean, it's just
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: wild some of the stuff that we're talking about. Speaking
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: of GLP-1s, just quickly, we're all familiar with the story
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: of how those were, you know, developed from. Initially diabetes treatments,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. But in terms of, like, where
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: they came from, it was, what was it, like, Gila
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: monster venom or, like, lizard venom or whatever the heck
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: it was. I can't remember.
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: So one of the other things, if you think about
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: the stuff that typically kills people, it's being overweight. And
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: basically from that, it's either heart disease or some type
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: of cancer. That's generally what ends up happening. The other
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: thing that they're looking into right now is there are
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: certain animals that can regenerate heart muscle. And the question is,
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: can you figure out through some kind of injection how
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: to activate whatever that gene might be in a human body?
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: to help with any cardiovascular events.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just wild stuff. Quick break. Wall Street
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Watch is next.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch. Tracking the stocks, the data,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: and the headlines driving markets so far today. Right here
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: Tech propelling higher after Nvidia's blowout. second quarter earnings report
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: and bullish sales outlook. Right now, the Dow's up a
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: third of a percent or 176 points higher. S &
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: P 500 up six-tenths of a percent, 44 points higher.
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: NASDAQ up 1.2 percent or 314 points up. Russell 2000
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: is up over a quarter percent, 10-year treasury yield flat
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: at 4.656%, and oil hovering right around $ 82 a barrel,
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: mostly flat. NVIDIA up over 7% after the AI giant
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Blue passed earnings expectations. The company's CFO also said they
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: expect revenue growth of 70% for fiscal 2028. Separately, the
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: information reported that NVIDIA agreed to buy open source platform
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: Hugging Face for $ 12. 9 billion. Meanwhile, Salesforce is rallying 20%
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: after the software giant handily beat expectations, reporting increased demand
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: for its AI and data offerings. The company also lifted
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: its full year sales and profit forecasts. Both CrowdStrike and
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: Okta surging 18% and 26% respectively after earnings showed that
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: AI adoption is pushing customers to spend more on cybersecurity tools.
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: And Wendy's is plunging 13% after Reuters reported that Trion
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: Fund management does not plan to try to buy the
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: company due to concerns about Wendy's strategic decisions. I'm Tucker Silva.
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: That is Wall Street Watch.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: We got a.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Piece here from... Bloomberg it's titled why aura and whoop
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: are bound for IPO glory so if you're not familiar
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: with aura they make rings that are like health trackers
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: and whoop makes these bracelets that are the same thing
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: yep similar and you know last segment we talked about
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: all the promising advances that we're seeing in medicine this
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: year and I said we're on the verge of some
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: really transformative stuff on the other side of the equation
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: in my opinion is health tech which I think just
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: sucks Uh, because like it talks about, I'll just give
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: you an example. Whoop age, for instance, is an addictive feature.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: First of all, it's not actually addictive. Okay. So let's
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: use the language, right? Like something that's addictive, like causes
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: you like physical dependence on it. I don't think that
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: whoop age is causing you physical dependence on your whoop.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I'll debate you on that.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: Social media, you don't, I mean, like we describe Facebook
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: as physically, as an addictive technology, so I'm not sure.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Yes, I don't know that a whoop is, but I
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: don't own one, so maybe, you know, whatever.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: It's paired with another metric called pace of aging, and
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: if it shows a score of less than one, it
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: means you're building good habits that can slow down inevitable decay. Okay,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: just hold that thought for a second. Whoop then gives
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: us the actionable. For me, improving sleep consistency and doing
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: more low-intensity cardio, such as walking at least 8,000 steps
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: a day, are my holy grail to anti-aging. Okay, so
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: here's the first thing. What we learn about the body
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: changes pretty frequently because we don't know jack about the body.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: It's just like every year we discover thousands of new
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: bacteria that exist in our body. guts because it's just
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: like the body's really complex and we don't really fully
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: understand how it works. So I don't know how with
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: any certainty, like whoops being like, hey, this is what
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: you need to do and you'll age better. Like, okay,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: that's problem number one. Problem number two is the law
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: of large numbers means that as you get towards a
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: larger and larger data set, you will get to see
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: results that look more like what you expect from them,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: such that, okay, population that works out more is going
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: to have results X, population that doesn't will have results Y.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: It doesn't mean anything on a one-to-one basis. I know
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: people who have had major heart events in their 20s
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: and 30s who you would think are perfectly healthy, but
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: random crap happens because the body is not a statistic,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: and it's either binary as to whether you have a
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: heart attack or not. So I think.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: All of that might matter for whether or not this
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: technology is predictive in any way, which I don't believe
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: it is. I don't think any of it matters for
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: the financial well-being of the companies.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: I know, but that's why I'm saying these things suck. Yeah,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: I understand.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: That's why I hate these.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: The third is, okay, so let's say you don't get
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: your 8,000 steps a day. Let's say you only do seven. Like,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: now you feel bad about yourself. Like, should you feel, like... No, like, you're...
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: The goal of your life is not to optimize everything. Like,
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: the goal of your life is to actually go and
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: live a life. And so, I hate that this stuff
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: can just make you feel bad about things that are
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: perfectly fine to do, like... hey, go eat a freaking
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: ice cream once. Or, oh, gee, like, you ate a steak?
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: That's cool, too. Like, stop making people feel bad for
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: every decision they make. It's okay to, like, just have
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: things that aren't perfect.
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: This is way too much information for me to have
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: on my own body. I have no interest in it.
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: I will say that I was in a setting last
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: weekend where people were comparing their.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: They were whooping? They were comparing their whoop ages. Oh, yeah.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: So I do think it's a thing.
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: I couldn't stand that. I would walk out of that
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: room so fast. I had no interest in the conversation myself,
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: but these things are trendy. People are buying them. They
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: think that they are doing something positive for their health.
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: And to be fair, if you think it's doing something
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: positive for your health, I'm all about the placebo effect.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Go for it.
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: If it's making you genuinely change your behavior to eat
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: less and exercise more than yeah, I can get on
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: board with that. Uh, I also think it's probably leading
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: to a bunch of unnecessary anxiety about your health, uh,
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: but to each their own and they seem to have
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: a pretty dedicated user base right now. Great.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: Uh, folks want to talk to you about the guide
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: from the Armstrong advisory group for the month of August.
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: We're closing in here on September. Uh, and I wanted
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: to give everybody.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Sorry, I don't like the fall. Chuck's favorite, Chuck's favorite season.
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: You know, It's one of the worst or the worst
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: performing month for equities, and it means the end of summer,
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: so I'm not excited about it. But I am excited
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: about our new guide from Armstrong, all about navigating retirement
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: housing choices.
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: Commonly, we are.
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: Seeing folks, especially, no, I'm going to say across the country,
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: retirees are getting to the point where their kids have
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: moved out, they are done working, and they are trying
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: to figure out if where they live is where.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: They want to be for the next 20 years.
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: And it is an increasingly difficult decision to make, especially
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: with the lock-in effect on interest rates if you're retiring
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: with a mortgage. This guide is designed to walk you
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: through the steps and the questions that you should be
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: asking about your own lifestyle and your own goals to
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: figure out where you want to live, right? You may say, hey,
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: aging in place in my current home is the best
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: possible place for me. But do you actually want to
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: be spending all the time maintaining that big house that
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: you raised your kids in Or are you better off
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: in some sort of different living facility? Very few people
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: that I know are aware of all the ins and
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: outs of CCRCs, for example, and what might actually be
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: the best outcome for them. And the one area that
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: I constantly see underestimated is the actual cost of aging
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: in your home due to all of the maintenance that
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: goes into it and all the work that you have
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: to hire out. If you would like a copy of
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: our free guide for the month of August, all about
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: navigating retirement housing choices, you can get it by calling 800-393-4001. Again,
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: it's the free monthly guide from the Armstrong Advisory Group
• 27:38
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• 27:41
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide is specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
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  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Peace in MarketWatch. The U.S. economy is better than it looks,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: but it might be due for a slowdown. So if
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: right now it's better than it looks, does that mean
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: it'll be worse than it feels eventually?
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: What does any of this mean? So how's the economy
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: better than it looks? I mean, the economy looks pretty good.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: Well, how does it look? I get that no one
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: likes the economy right now. 4% unemployment. What's nominal GDP?
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Nominal GDP is 6.5%.
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: Stock market's at all-time highs and has produced average annual
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: returns of like 20% for the last three years.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Which part of the economy is better than it looks?
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: The piece that no one likes is that inflation is
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: high and people want prices to come down, which they
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: never will. So that's the part that's better than it looks? No,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: that's the part that makes people think it looks bad.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: The part that's better than it looks is what you said.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: It's like unemployment is low, equity markets are performing well,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: What was the other thing that you said? Equity markets are,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know. There's something else. Nominal GDP is growing
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: very rapidly. So here's the deal. Here's why, in my opinion,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: people don't like the economy right now. Inflation is high.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: Even though unemployment is low, the hiring pace is slow.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: And the housing market's kind of garbage. Those would add
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: up for it.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: Might it be due for a slowdown? Well, I don't know.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: The economy's never due for a slowdown. Let's get rid
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: of that idea. Yeah. It's not you running a lap
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: around the track. No, then I'm due for a slowdown. Yeah,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: you're right.
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: I cannot run 400 meters as quickly as I can
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: run 100 meters.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: That's not how the economy works. Yes. The economy is
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: organic to a certain extent. in that, like, it does
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: go through these ebbs and flows. But, like, due for
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: a slowdown, I don't know what that means exactly. This
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: is trying to make the case that, hey, there was,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: you know, a bunch of consumer spending in Q2 that's
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: unlikely to repeat itself.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: That's not what's driving the economy right now. No.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: It's kind of irrelevant. The last three to four years
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: has been all about AI. So when AI starts to
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: show signs of slowing down, then maybe we can extrapolate
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: if something else hasn't come along to pick up the mantle,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: like housing, which I think is maybe getting ready to
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: turn the corner in pivotal markets in 27 and 28.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: So do for a slowdown. I just don't know that
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: you can say that. And that's why I disagree with
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: this piece, I think. Let's take a quick break here,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: and when we return, we've got a little bit of
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: stack roulette to do, and that's what we're going to
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: do next.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams every day live on YouTube. Subscribe
• 30:38
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• 30:41
  Speaker 1: only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: If you missed any of our shows from this week,
• 30:51
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• 30:54
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• 30:58
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• 31:01
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• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for me for Stack Rule?
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: I'm going to go to a story I just saw
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: flash across Bloomberg moments ago, which is Hugging Face, which
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: we were just talking about, OpenAI's agents attempted to and
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: succeeded in, right? Can we call it succeeding in hacking
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: Hugging Face? They infiltrated, but ultimately were rebuffed by Hugging Face.
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: Hugging Face is now in deals to be acquired by NVIDIA,
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: but what caught my attention is that they are producing
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: a little... open source AI robot called the micro duck.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Uh, in 2026.
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: Uh, they had acquired a French startup, uh, apparently recently
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: and want this cute little duck on wheels. It's not
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: a duck on wheels. It's a robot on wheels, uh,
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: that they can sell. I allegedly, you know, teach it
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: to do tricks.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I'm saying wheels, Michael, it's got wheels.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: I saw things got feet.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: I saw it at a skate park. It's also got wheels.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: What do you mean you saw it at a skate park?
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: I saw a YouTube video of it learning how to
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: do skate park maneuvers.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: And allegedly you can train it on open source technology.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: Michael, Tucker's right.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: It's got feet.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: Go watch the video, man.
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. Is it on
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: a skateboard at the skate park? It also looks like
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: a pizza.
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: I think it also has wheels on the backside of
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: it that I can wheel around on. So it's very
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: cute looking, and I'm sure my kids would love it.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: Open questions that I have, it's obviously got a camera
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: to be able to navigate around.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: No, Michael, you have to buy roller skates for it. Well,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: there's the add-on. Michael, you have to buy roller skates
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: for your micro duck. It's got a scooter, too. Here's
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: what it can do. It can walk. It can sit
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: and stand. It can pick things up with its beak.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: It can kick a ball. It's unclear that it can
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: receive a ball, but it can kick a ball. It
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: can grab something.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: Something.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: It can roller skate if you buy the roller skates.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: So it is a required add-on. And if it falls down,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: it can get up.
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: So I agree that this thing seems rather unimpressive. I
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: also am not sure that it doesn't mean it won't
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: sell like Wildfire. It is like $ 400, so it's not
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: going to sell quite like Wildfire.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: It looks like a tiny Wall-E. It's not that big.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: It's not big at all, yeah. No, very small.
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: So among my questions, the fact that it's open source
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: AI behind it, I don't know if that should make
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: me more or less comfortable with the entire thing. In
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: one sense, if it's open source, if they have a
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: bunch of security flaws with it, you're probably going to
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: find out sooner than if it would be closed source.
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: But in either case, before going to buy one of
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: these things, just consider the ramifications of having a robot
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: with a camera in your kid's bedroom.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: On the open source side of things, Mike, you are
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: an Android user.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: That's open source. It's an open source platform. It's just,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: you know, okay, like, yeah, it's Google's platform, but anyone
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: can take it and do what they want with it.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: That's what Samsung does and LG and whoever else uses
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: that platform. This... Okay. Okay, like, it's fine, but, like, what.
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: The main conclusion I had about this, by the way,
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: when I saw this, was, wow, I really don't understand
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: what it is that Hugging Face does.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: That's fair. Like.
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: I thought you were an online repository of a bunch
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: of tests. In fact, you are also making a tiny
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: little duck-shaped robot.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Okay, I got another question. I'm on the website now,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: and I'm looking at what you can buy. So you've
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: got the micro duck. You can buy that, obviously. That's great.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Then they have the accessory pack, which includes the roller skates. Naturally.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Got it. Then there's, you know, charging accessories. Got it. Okay,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: that's fine. You got to pay for charging accessories? Come on.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: If you want, like, extra stuff. It's like a dual
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: charger if you have two of these, because you want,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: you know, a micro duck fight. Like, I don't know.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Here's the one that I'm confused about. In the accessory pack,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: in addition to the roller skates, it comes with a
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: laser pointer and 10 near-field communication tags, air tags, things
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: like that. Why do I need a laser pointer with
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: my micro duck? Trying to take down an airplane or something?
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: What's going on here, guys? Kind of, like, concerning.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Play with a cat.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: And the.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Weapons targeting, Chuck. Right? Next, you can get the micro
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: duck bazooka.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: And also.
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: Trying to call in an airstrike here, and you're ragging
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: on me. The NFC tags, why do you need that
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: with a micro duck? What are you going to do
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: with NFC tags?
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Um... Like, have your micro-duck stalk someone? Yeah, that's kind
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: of what.
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: Came to mind, is the middle of the night, and
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: one of these tiny little robots is following me home
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: from the bar.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: Right, like, exactly.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: It's like, you look around the corner, and it's just like... Plop. Plop. Plop. Plop. And, like,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: the music picks up, like... Yeah. And then you start running,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: and then it's, like, raining, and the rain's the only
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: thing that short-circuits it, and then it finally dies.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: Someone on the YouTube comments said, my dream of having
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: a Star Wars-style robot sidekick is getting closer and closer.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Kind of gives that vibe. So if you want
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: to go that route instead of the laser pointer, give
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: it a lightsaber. You could have a micro-duck lightsaber fight.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: Well, R2-D2 didn't have a lightsaber or CP3.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but he wasn't much of a fighter.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: That's what a sidekick in Star Wars does. That's what
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: this is saying. No, that's fair. Not making him a
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Jedi all of a sudden.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Come on.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Don't be crazy. Trying to see what's next. I'm skating
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: where the puck's going, Tucker, not where it's been.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: Waddling.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah when you got the roller skates you can skate
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: where the puck's going.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Gotta buy those though that's extra.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Speaking of toys that I dislike the whole squishy toy
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: thing enough.
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: They're everywhere in my house I keep stepping on them
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: and popping them to tears so I found one the
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: other day that somehow just melted into a shelf and
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: I can't get half of it off the shelf yeah
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: it's gotta end it's like I can't do the squishy
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: toy thing anymore yeah we all if you can't tell
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: have children under the age of 10 who are acquiring
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: massive numbers of squishy toys.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah they're banned in our household And if you want
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: to make your kids upset with you, buy their kids
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: squishy toys, and that'll do it. We're going to take
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: a quick break for the rest of the day, but
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: I hope you all have a great time doing whatever
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: it is that you do, and come back and join
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: us again tomorrow.