Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Fred Krueger | Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Fred Krueger | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Are they late to Bitcoin? Is it too late to buy Bitcoin
0:02
Fred and and benefit from it? I mean, we're super early.
0:07
We're very, very early. I mean, this is this is like
0:13
we're the beginning of a probably a 20 year journey of
0:19
massively high returns. It's, it's going to be, we're
0:22
going to have massively high returns for 20 or maybe even 30
0:25
years that that's basically, I think where we are.
0:28
So you know, you're, you're nowhere.
0:31
You're at the beginning, like you're in the first inning.
0:37
Hey Fred, how you doing long time.
0:39
No. Talk I really enjoyed our
0:41
conversation last time. I remember one of the things
0:43
that you told me, which is very, very impactful and I and you
0:47
said, Nico, your life's going to change and you know the way that
0:53
you've been kind of approaching it because been approaching it,
0:56
you know, as like for the last 8-9 years of my life now I've
1:01
just been, you know, putting specifically in the early years,
1:04
like 80 to 90% of my my what I was earning into Bitcoin and you
1:10
know been having this like very kind of live below your means
1:13
type of mentality and that's how I've been approaching it.
1:16
And one of the things that you told me when you came on the
1:19
show, you know, last time was like, Nico, your life's going to
1:23
change in 2025. And I've put a lot of thought
1:28
into that lately and had that conversation with my wife as
1:32
well. And she's been thinking about it
1:33
because again, I've been living this life, you know, of course,
1:36
simply Bitcoin has taken off. I have my own business, you
1:39
know, things have changed, right?
1:41
But I still have this like Bitcoiner esque mentality of,
1:46
you know, live below your means, you know, stay frugal, stay
1:51
disciplined, stay this. But again, I am coming up on 9
1:55
years of doing this, right? So anyone who's been in Bitcoin
1:59
nine years, you know, it's a long time.
2:01
So can you talk a little bit about that?
2:04
Because I feel like there's a lot of people my age that got
2:08
in, you know, roughly around the same time I did, which was class
2:11
of 2016. Most people got in 2017, but
2:14
it's essentially the same thing. What changes, Fred?
2:17
Like what is this change that you were talking about last
2:20
time? Well, I think the big one is
2:24
real estate, right? That's, that's going to be the
2:27
biggest expense that you're going to make in your life is
2:30
going to be buying a house. And that is not a cheap thing to
2:34
do right now. You know, I have a friend who
2:39
was just saying, you know, you really can't buy in anything in
2:42
any major US city right now under $1,000,000.
2:46
You know, you can't buy it in Miami, you can't buy it in New
2:48
York, can't buy it in LA, can't buy it in San Francisco.
2:52
You know, maybe in the middle of the middle of the country
2:57
somewhere you can still get something for a million.
3:00
But you know, that's kind of your entry point right now.
3:03
And I think the biggest question you have to ask yourself is do
3:08
you want to take the plunge and, and actually have a mortgage and
3:13
real estate? And that's really the question.
3:17
And, you know, I think in many respects, in many cases, the
3:21
answer is, you know, for somebody like you who've been,
3:25
who's been in Bitcoin for a while, I think maybe the answer
3:28
is yes, you do want to get some real estate, you know, but I'd
3:32
say if you're just starting out and I would say the, I would
3:38
suggest stacking it be better idea right now than then jumping
3:43
into, you know, mortgage on, you know, what, what is kind of an
3:47
overpriced asset really. You know, I think, I think real
3:52
estate's not going to do very well relative to Bitcoin.
3:56
You know, I really don't think it will.
3:58
And so, you know, I think you have, you have to think about
4:01
yourself as 10 years from now on Bitcoins at $1,000,000.
4:05
How smart is that? Is that house or that condo
4:09
going to look? And I'd say probably not.
4:13
Not too smart. Yeah, absolutely.
4:17
I mean a. Guy, a guy that we both know,
4:19
you know Terrence Yang. Yes.
4:22
So Terrence Yang, Yeah, OK, so Terrence Yang posted something
4:26
and he said, well, I, I invested IN250K into this condo, nice
4:31
looking condo by the way, you know, apartment complex
4:34
somewhere. And he's like, but I invested
4:37
it. That would be worth about
4:40
2,000,000 today, right? And I said at Terrence, it could
4:45
be worth 10 million by the end of end of 2025.
4:48
You know, that's, and you know, you, you got like a, you got a
4:51
timeshare and a condo for $250,000 or you got a partial
4:56
ownership in this apartment complex or you could have $10
5:00
million worth of Bitcoin, you know, on its way to going to be
5:04
worth $100 million, right? So no, I, I, you know, I, I
5:08
really think, you know, you really got to balance these
5:12
things out. And you know, it's a, it's a
5:14
tough one because I don't think you're going to see another
5:17
thing like Bitcoin likely in your life.
5:21
You know, you're, you might, you might see it, but you're not
5:24
going to get it on the ground floor like you did with Bitcoin.
5:27
And you got lucky. You know, we all got lucky.
5:30
We, our, our eyes were opened at the right time.
5:34
But, you know, I just, you know, don't take that for granted.
5:39
You know, you're not, you're not going to go through life and
5:41
you're going to see three of these.
5:42
You know, I don't think so. You know, I just, you know, I
5:47
think if you can rent, you know, rent if you can, you know, our
5:55
friend, you know, I don't know if you know Thomas Young, but
5:57
like, Thomas Young was like, well, you know, whenever I look
5:59
at a car right now, it's a, you know, an $80,000 car.
6:03
I look at it as a $250,000 car, you know, and I'm like, you
6:08
should, but you should also not think about spending $80,000 on
6:13
a car. You should be thinking about
6:15
spending, you know, $600 a month on, on, on a lease.
6:21
Yeah. You got to resist the idea of
6:23
actually buying stuff. Yeah.
6:26
And and, you know, lease as much as lease as much as you want.
6:30
You know, I, I definitely think that's kind of the, from a
6:34
personal planning perspective, I think, you know, especially if
6:40
you're young, it makes sense to, you know, it, it makes sense to
6:45
potentially not buy right now, not buy now.
6:51
You know, you do get the leverage on, on real estate.
6:56
You know, you, you get, you're putting 20% down, but I got to
7:00
tell you, it's like you want leverage.
7:01
You can get leverage on Bitcoin too.
7:03
You know what I mean? You can get, you can buy 2X the
7:05
amount of Bitcoin that you have. You know you, I wouldn't, I, I
7:10
just think real estate's the loser here.
7:12
And so I think you, you have to figure out how can you increase
7:18
your lifestyle without increasing the amount of dollars
7:22
you're forking out for cars and, and boats, if you're so
7:27
inclined. And yeah, the boats are the
7:30
worst, right? They're, they're by that by far
7:31
the worst, right? Like the There's no worse
7:34
investment than a boat. It's setting money on fire,
7:37
straight up. It's pretty much setting money
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up. I mean, I think arguably jet
7:41
planes are worse than boats, you know?
7:44
Yeah, yeah. But those things just go to the.
7:47
It's just like literally setting your money on fire but.
7:50
Yeah. But I think, I think with jets
7:52
it saves you time, right. So like you can make that
7:55
argument with a boat, like it's straight up leisure and it's and
8:00
you know you're not going to if and if you travel a lot, the jet
8:03
kind of justifies going through the pain of going commercial and
8:07
all that. Stuff, you know, I used to have
8:09
a jet 20 years ago. I was on, I mean, not my own,
8:12
but I had net jets, right? And I flew around for for four
8:17
years. I had net jets and you know,
8:21
I'll tell you it's it's good, but it's not as great as you
8:25
would think. And I'll tell you why, because
8:31
unless you got like the Super duper big net jets, you're not
8:34
going to Europe on with one-on-one hall.
8:39
You from Miami. You could, right, But like LA to
8:43
LA to New York, LA to Paris. No, you don't.
8:47
You're not doing that in one. So you have to stop and refuel,
8:50
and that's marginally not even as good as flying first class.
8:55
Yeah, yeah. You know, so you know, and then
8:58
you, you know, unless, unless you're Michael Saylor and you
9:01
own your plane and you know, you, you tell the guy just keep,
9:05
keep the, keep it running. You know, I'm, I'm going to be,
9:08
I'm going to be two hours late. You do have to kind of make
9:11
those appointments. You know those, you have those
9:13
slots and you know, you get charged an arm and a leg if you
9:17
miss them. So I don't know.
9:18
I don't regret, I don't regret necessarily my private jet days.
9:24
But but yeah, all these things are not are not really what they
9:30
cracked they're cracked up to be.
9:32
So one of the things that the, one of the things that really
9:36
stuck out to me, Fred, in this early part that you were, that
9:39
we were, that we've been speaking is in Lugano in
9:42
Switzerland. I went to the Plan B forum and I
9:45
I introduced this guy by the name of Marthi Malami.
9:49
Right. Oh yeah, of course, yeah.
9:50
And you know, this is someone who, you know, a Bitcoin OG, he
9:55
was one of the first people to talk to Satoshi.
9:57
And I didn't know who I was presenting.
10:00
I didn't know who was introducing because I was I'm
10:02
seeing one of the stages and I introduced him like this is
10:05
whatever and and his name of his talk was this is my Bitcoin
10:08
pizza story and Long story short, he said something along
10:13
the lines of I bought a flat. I bought my first flat, a one
10:18
bedroom apartment in Finland for 10,000 Bitcoin or something like
10:24
that. It was like a ridiculous amount.
10:26
And he was basically, he just kept talking about paying for
10:29
trips and paying for things. And he's like, if I have just
10:32
kept all that Bitcoin, I'd be the third richest man in Finland
10:36
right now. And it just kind of reminds me
10:39
with what you're saying, but it also puts you in a predicament,
10:43
right? So if it was up to me, I would
10:45
kind of keep living this, you know, this, this live below your
10:50
means lifestyle. But I am married.
10:52
I have a wife and I just had my first kid and and she's like
10:58
almost one year old and that changes the conversation, right.
11:03
So, you know, the, so we're thinking about probably leaving
11:07
Miami because it is, you know, and we we're for a multitude of
11:12
reasons, not only because real estate is so expensive, but I
11:16
was, I grew up on South Beach. I don't want to raise my
11:18
daughter here for the obvious reasons.
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So we're probably going to, you know, go to a place a little bit
11:23
more quiet and obviously a lot more affordable.
11:26
But you know what, like what? At what point, you know this
11:32
push come to shove because Fred, like at at the end of the day,
11:36
you need a place to live. Like you need a, you need a roof
11:39
over your head. You need, you need to play.
11:41
Like what's the point of working and huddling for so long if
11:45
you're not going to enjoy it at one point?
11:47
We only have one life at the end of the day, right?
11:50
So what would your advice on that be?
11:53
Again, my advice would be step up your lifestyle.
11:56
Rent something crazily good, rent something great and just
12:03
don't buy it. You know what I mean?
12:07
Like just think about the rent. Like let's just say I don't know
12:11
what you're you're planning, would planning on spending for
12:14
place, but let's just take $1,000,000 as a number.
12:17
OK, Well, let's like take $2,000,000, OK, but I'll I'll
12:21
take kind of Lai think LA and Miami are probably pretty
12:25
similar. I'm not 100% sure, but like in
12:29
LA, if you want to kind of get a, a basic kind of house, it's
12:37
about $3,000,000. I'm not, we're not talking like
12:41
amazing great, you know, but this is like a basic stand alone
12:45
house in a kind of nice area is $3,000,000.
12:48
OK, so let's take that as our basis, right?
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But let's say also you want to rent whatever you want in LA,
13:00
that same house or something, maybe it'll cost you 20 grand a
13:03
month. OK, Well, I would say the
13:09
difference between spending the $600,000 upfront in the in the,
13:15
in the cost to buy that, that 20% down and get all the
13:19
mortgage payments and everything else, I would say you're
13:22
probably better off spending 20 grand a month on on renting.
13:26
You'd have to do your own calculation, but do that for
13:30
just two years and then and then buy, you know what I mean?
13:35
Because those next two years, like I mean, you just do the
13:39
math on your Bitcoin. You know, if if Bitcoin goes to
13:42
500, let's just take 500,000, you're 5X from where you are
13:46
now, you know, that house becomes very, very expensive
13:51
looked on at, you know, and and sort of 2028 bitcoins.
13:55
So I would say resist the temptation rent, that's fine.
14:01
Burn some cash, live a little bit, live live it up on the
14:05
rental. And now the question is, are
14:11
you, you know, is your, the landlords and so on, are they
14:14
going to be OK with it? Well, you show them your hard
14:17
hardware wallet, you know, and you know, or maybe move it to
14:23
some place where you can, you can, you know, it's, it's
14:26
custody, like I don't know, river or somebody like that,
14:29
right? You know, part of it, you know,
14:31
or Fidelity digital assets or something, right, so that you're
14:34
not just saying, hey, this is my Ledger guy, you know, like this
14:38
is fine, you know, get an account with your name on it.
14:42
You know what I mean? Yeah, absolutely.
14:45
You know, but and then and then I think, I think I think we're
14:50
getting to the point where you're going to be able to live
14:52
on that. You know, I think you're going
14:54
to be people will treat you like a first class human being.
14:59
If you've got, you know, if you got a bunch of Bitcoin.
15:02
I I really think we're getting to that point.
15:05
I just feel like the smart move is to rent a little bit longer.
15:08
Just resist the temptation. Maybe it's only two year a year,
15:12
maybe it's literally might be at 12 months, right?
15:16
Yeah, it might be 12 months. You know, so it's just like
15:19
these could be, this could be the worst timing of your life.
15:21
If you buy that, if you buy, if you buy that house like you know
15:26
in February, that could be the that you could, that could be
15:29
your Marty Balmy moment. Yeah, yeah, I, I'm, I'm going to
15:34
take that advice to heart now. I think you've been but.
15:38
I am, but I am saying you should, you should treat
15:40
yourself like, you know, look, you're not in grad school.
15:43
You, you huddled, you did well, great, you know, treat yourself
15:48
a little bit, you know? Yeah, but I, I example, I just
15:52
bought a 9/11 convertible, you know, top of the line, whatever,
15:59
you know, but I didn't, I didn't pay cash for it.
16:03
I just leased it, right. Doesn't matter.
16:06
Like, I don't care. Yeah, it doesn't matter.
16:09
I mean, obviously I could pay cash for it, but I, I'm very,
16:13
very cognizant now of I I don't want my cash.
16:16
I don't want to spend cash on like a big apartment.
16:20
Like I have a similar type of thing just for fun.
16:23
I'd like to buy an apartment in Paris.
16:26
But, you know, that would be 5,000,000 bucks.
16:31
Yep. And, you know, I'm just sort of
16:34
like, oh, do I really want to spend $20 million in apartment
16:38
in Paris? I'm thinking Bitcoin Wolf 4X,
16:41
you know, yeah, You know, so like, I'm pretty happy just
16:46
waiting and buying it for $1,000,000, you know what I
16:49
mean? Effectively.
16:51
Yep, exactly. It's just, that's the only thing
16:54
is it costs you time. Now, one of the one of the
16:56
threads that really stuck out to me, by the way, for anyone who
17:00
doesn't follow Fred, Fred's X account, it's fabulous and it's
17:04
one of the fastest growing in the industry.
17:07
He's really, really good at it and I'm a big fan of his YouTube
17:10
content as well. And one of the latest ones that
17:15
I really enjoyed. We're actually probably going to
17:17
cover it on the show 'cause it was really great, which is you
17:20
kind of broke down like how much Bitcoin you need to retire.
17:24
And that's a very popular subject on YouTube.
17:27
And a lot of people are thinking about this, you know, hauling it
17:30
easy, especially if you do it for long periods of times, is my
17:35
third cycle. You know, like it takes really
17:37
the life out of you. Like straight up, I don't know
17:39
how else to say it, but you know what, what is the answer to that
17:45
question? Like how much Bitcoin you need
17:46
to retire? And I'm assuming it's different
17:49
based on the age groups and the generations, right?
17:52
So the floor is yours, Fred. Yeah, so I would say look, if
17:56
you're very young, like if you're very young, I'd say I
18:00
consider under 30 very young, right.
18:03
I would say one Bitcoin, you know, if if you can get to 1
18:08
Bitcoin, that's great. You know, now that's easier said
18:11
than done. I mean, like I used to be a
18:12
starving Stanford grad student, you know, eating top ramen and
18:18
drinking wine from bottles with with screw tops, you know, and
18:24
and so, you know, 100 grand sounds sounds like a lot of
18:28
money when you're, you know, when you're poor.
18:31
But I would say one Bitcoin, if you're looking, if you're in
18:36
your under 30, you got 30 years to retire.
18:40
What one Bitcoin in 30 years will be enough for you to
18:45
retire? I think so I think just one, one
18:49
Bitcoin is the answer. And you know, by definition,
18:52
only 21 million people in this entire planet will ever get to 1
18:57
Bitcoin and probably a lot less than that, right?
19:01
So you know it, it may be as little as as 5 million people
19:06
will ever get to 1 Bitcoin. Right now you have about a
19:08
million people who have or at one Bitcoin.
19:11
But I think, I think the number the, the sort of the Max I would
19:15
say is five. There's I would say, yeah.
19:18
So I think if you're, if you're, you know, in your 40s or
19:23
something, you know, you don't have that kind of time frame.
19:27
So I think the number there is more like 10 Bitcoin.
19:32
You know, again, you still need to you still need to kind of
19:36
hold on to it for a while. And, and, and you know, if
19:40
you're in your 50s or 60s, I mean somewhere around 30-40
19:46
Bitcoin I think is kind of what you, you really need, you know
19:49
what I mean? It's not ten anymore, right?
19:52
10's, 10's a little, 10's a little cutting it, cutting a
19:56
little close, you know, if you're, if you're 50 or 60, I
20:00
think. And so even if you're talking
20:03
about borrowing against whatever, you know, I think, I
20:08
think those are sort of the, those are the ranges I would
20:11
say. Yeah, and.
20:13
Do you agree with that, Nico, or what?
20:15
Do you I, I 100% agree because you know with 30 years, let's
20:21
say Michael Saylor's base case, not even his bull case, right,
20:24
His 21 year prediction, well now 20 year prediction is $13
20:28
million per coin by the year 2045, you know and.
20:34
I mean, I just, I just like to think of it in, in, in broad
20:37
amounts. Bitcoin 1,000,000, Bitcoin 10
20:40
million, right? All right.
20:42
When are we going to get to Bitcoin 1,000,000?
20:45
I would say probably 10 years from now, somewhere between five
20:49
years from now. I mean, there's some people
20:51
saying this year, right, if possible, right, But somewhere I
20:55
would say, you know, somewhere in the five to 10 range, right?
21:01
I think that's kind of the likelihood for a million.
21:04
Where are we going to get to 10 million probably around 20 years
21:09
from now? You're going to get to 10
21:11
million, you know, maybe 30 years from now, right?
21:14
So that that kind of time range. And that's kind of what the
21:17
power law tells you, right? So the power law quantifies this
21:20
stuff very well for you. Absolutely, Yeah.
21:25
No, I I agree with that assessment 100%.
21:28
And so, but if you're, if you're, if you're under 30, you
21:31
got 30 years. So you know, you know, you
21:34
really need to think of it. The one thing you don't want to
21:37
do is sell is is touch that Bitcoin like you really you
21:40
really want to put that thing in a vault and have a time lock for
21:43
30 years almost. You know that that would almost
21:46
be the best scenario for you. Yeah.
21:48
And let me ask you something else, Fred, how much Bitcoin,
21:51
regardless of age today, if you wanted to retire and live a
21:59
upper class lifestyle and one of the, you know, global world
22:04
cities, how much Bitcoin do you think you would need to retire
22:07
today essentially to live that lifestyle 'cause you and I both
22:11
know, you know, the cost of living in LA, Miami is like, you
22:18
know, you go to a bar, it's $40 a drink, right?
22:20
That's the norm. I know it's very.
22:22
That's very. Going up and going up.
22:25
It's not, it's not going down. Yeah, that's the norm.
22:28
I've all I grew up with that when I was, you know, in my,
22:30
when I was growing out, when I was going out and you know, the
22:34
my early 20s, late teens, it was $25 per drink.
22:37
So nothing's really changed. It's just this, it's South
22:40
Beach, right? LA, I'm sure it's very something
22:42
very similar. I would say New York is similar
22:44
as well. I love New York City, favorite,
22:46
my favorite city in the world. And like my original question,
22:52
how much Bitcoin would you need to retire to live, in your
22:56
opinion, to live in one of those big cities?
22:58
And this isn't just the United States, like let's say, Europe,
23:01
you know, the great cities in Europe.
23:02
I love Madrid. No, I posted something on the
23:05
I'm trying to figure out because I, I sort of said, what if I
23:09
just decided to live in the absolute top of the line
23:12
lifestyle? OK, OK, what would that involve?
23:15
OK, I would say I sort of asked Chat GPTI said help me out here,
23:19
you know, and I said and I said great, OK, well that lifestyle
23:22
would involve staying at 5 star hotels like Four Seasons
23:26
equivalent 100 nights a year. Yeah, OK, 100 nights a year.
23:34
And then first class travel to, you know, to trips all over the
23:43
place 100, you know, equivalent of 1/3 of the time you so you're
23:46
flying to Paris, to Tokyo, you're staying in, you're
23:52
staying in the best hotels ever, right?
23:56
You've got like, you know, personal assistant, you got
23:59
somebody picking you up at the airport.
24:01
Everything right? That's the peak peak, peak
24:03
lifestyle, right? And ChatGPT came back and said,
24:10
you know, what was the number I should get the post, But it was
24:13
sort of like, you know, about a million a year, you know, bulb
24:19
or half a million, half a million to a million a year or a
24:21
million a year, right? Whatever, Let's just say
24:24
1,000,000 a year, right? So my point is, if you just
24:27
backtrack that, OK, well, you got, you got to spend a million
24:31
a year. Well, OK, it's actually next
24:35
year, which is the biggest problem to your thing, right?
24:38
Because if, if, if you say right now, let's say you start with
24:41
100 Bitcoin, right? Well, 100 Bitcoin is 10 million
24:45
bucks, right? OK.
24:47
And OK, well, you're going to peel off a 10th of it in year 1,
24:53
but how much are you going to peel off in year 2?
24:55
Well, potentially you're only going to peel off, you know, a
24:59
20 or 30th of it in year 2, right?
25:03
And you can borrow against it. So I mean, 100 bitcoins should
25:07
be more than it's sufficient for you to live pretty much at the
25:12
peak. You know, this is like within a
25:15
couple, right, and including like, you know, education for
25:19
your kids, private nanny, whatever you want right now.
25:23
You're not going to have sailor's yacht.
25:26
You're not you're not going to get the sailor house right.
25:29
You're not going to get the Palm Beach or the the Aspen, you
25:36
know, mountain chalet on top of it.
25:38
So you're not getting those things, but just from a pure
25:41
lifestyle, 100 Bitcoin, pretty much over 100 Bitcoin.
25:46
There is no hotel chain that that's going to give you a
25:49
better experience. The Four Seasons is it, you
25:52
know, that's it that that's the peak.
25:55
You know, I'm I say that The Four Seasons of Miami, beautiful
25:59
place. You know, I love and you know, I
26:01
stay there just just now. Great doesn't get any better
26:05
than that, you know, so I would say look, you know, if 100
26:10
Bitcoin gives you the absolute peak lifestyle forever starting
26:15
now, well, maybe you scale it down from there to like 30
26:19
Bitcoin or 25 Bitcoin, you should be able to live off that
26:22
today, right? And, and so, you know, now of
26:28
course, all this stuff is easier said than done because you have
26:32
to have this crazy belief in Bitcoin and not panic sell it at
26:38
the absolute worst point, which, you know, I think that's kind of
26:44
why we do these podcasts, I think is basically to persuade
26:47
ourselves, you know, that this kind of worldview that we have
26:52
is not complete insanity. I.
26:55
Mean. When I was talking to my
26:57
accountant, she's like, what? Fred, you are completely insane.
27:01
Why? It's like I get a heart
27:03
palpitations whenever I look at your portfolio and I'm like,
27:06
yeah, don't worry about it. Like.
27:09
We are we listen to Bitcoin content in order to reinforce
27:12
our beliefs and entertain along the way.
27:15
I wouldn't. That's a very good assessment.
27:17
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and bada Bing bada boom you're ready to buy Bitcoin now Fred
28:00
you know we're all expecting 2025 to be an amazing year and
28:04
I'll set the context a little bit right Biden administration
28:08
lost catastrophically. The Republicans have a trifecta
28:11
in government and they hold the house they hold the Senate.
28:14
They won the presidency. This is the first pro Bitcoin
28:17
president going into office and of course the talk of a
28:21
strategic Bitcoin reserve, which if that gets passed, I think the
28:25
Poly market odds give it like a 40%.
28:27
But if that somehow gets passed, we're going to 500 K guaranteed
28:31
next year. That's the way I'm looking at
28:34
it. And of course, you know the
28:36
nation state adoption with Naimbu Calais and then of course
28:41
Michael Saylor's amazing success with micro strategy on the kind
28:45
of Wall Street institutional level.
28:48
So just kind of aligning and given context.
28:50
So because we are going to go into kind of speculation type of
28:53
talk, sure, what are you expecting for 2025 And if you
28:58
want I can give my own kind of theories first.
29:01
Yeah, go ahead. Why don't you start?
29:03
Yeah. OK.
29:04
So I think 2021 was artificially cut short because of the China
29:10
mining ban. You see, there is a direct
29:13
correlation between the hash rate pump plummeting 50% and the
29:16
price going along with it. Why?
29:18
Because all those miners needed to sell Bitcoin to relocate to
29:22
more favorable jurisdictions. So I think 2021 we were actually
29:25
destined to hit 100K. Now what this caused was now
29:30
most of the Bitcoin community has this form of PTSD.
29:34
We have not experienced a blow off top in Bitcoin since 2017.
29:39
It's been a long time, right? So I think the general consensus
29:43
and the reason I'm bringing this up is Bitcoin tends to do the
29:46
exact opposite of what everybody thinks, right?
29:48
And it's just markets in general.
29:50
So the general consensus IS150K Bitcoin, 180 K Bitcoin.
29:55
I think we're going either much lower than that or much higher
29:59
than that because I see most people throwing this number in
30:03
that general vicinity. And then I think people are
30:06
underestimating how bullish it is for Bitcoin for Trump to have
30:12
won this election like it was a big deal, like people
30:16
underestimate this. And even if he doesn't pass
30:20
legislation through, the things that he can do via executive
30:24
order is a lot, right? So that's my general theory.
30:29
I think it's going to blow. I think it's on the upside, I
30:32
think it's going to blow past 200 K minimum.
30:35
That's my theory. I would love to hear yours.
30:39
OK. So my theory is less on the
30:42
number that we're going to hit this year that I'm that I think
30:46
we have a longer runway. So I, I don't know how much
30:52
we're going to go up this year. I think it could be 200,000 that
30:55
that might be it, right? I might be 500,000.
30:58
Like if it, if it was 200,000, I'd be very happy.
31:01
If it's 500,000, I'd be very happy.
31:03
Yeah, it doesn't matter to me, right?
31:05
I definitely don't think right now that 2026 will be a down
31:10
year. So I, I don't think that the,
31:14
the mining cycle or anything has anything to do with anything at
31:17
this point. You know, we, we are at the tail
31:21
end of that mining argument. You know, where or what the,
31:25
what the miners did mattered. I don't think it matters
31:28
anymore. So I think, I think we just have
31:31
to get rid of the cycles idea like that.
31:34
And I, I understand we've had it, we've had, we've had it for
31:37
the first 3 cycles, you know, really bad, you know that there,
31:41
there was, you know, this was, but I don't think it matters
31:44
right now. I just don't think it matters.
31:46
I, I really don't. So, you know, I don't think, I
31:50
think the real question is not how do we, how much do we get
31:55
next year? I think the real question is,
31:57
you know, how long does it take us to get to 500,000 or a
32:01
million? You know, and it may take us a
32:03
couple years and that's fine. It's, you know, it's perfect.
32:06
So my view is, I also kind of view that the Bitcoin strategic
32:14
reserve, like it may happen and there may be this, but look,
32:18
America has America's kind of broke right now.
32:22
So I don't see them, you know, kind of spent.
32:25
And we've got to refinance $7 trillion in Treasury bonds this
32:30
year. So I don't see us really
32:33
contributing a lot of money to this strategic Bitcoin reserve.
32:37
I you know, I Trump's got his, his, his, his, his.
32:44
He has work cut out for him on many, many different fronts,
32:47
right, to kind of curb immigration.
32:50
He's got to he's got to clean up some this excess government
32:54
waste. You know, he's got to do a lot
32:57
of stuff. And I don't think Bitcoin does
33:00
not need the bitcoins strategic reserve.
33:03
You know, we will do fine without it.
33:06
It's fine. Doesn't matter like all he the
33:09
only thing I really want or expect him to do is to label the
33:15
existing Bitcoin that he has as a Bitcoin strategic reserve and
33:18
stock. That's it.
33:20
You know, like I think fixing the United States is more
33:23
important than buying a lot of Bitcoin right now.
33:27
That that's my view. Like I feel like there's enough
33:30
problems with the United States. We got into enough problems with
33:33
the Biden administration and and even before, right, we've got,
33:38
we got, we got a broken house, a broken car.
33:41
Let's fix the car, you know, and let's give Bitcoin a room to run
33:47
because it's going to run all by itself.
33:48
Does not need training wheels at this point.
33:51
You know, and you know, I, I just feel like there's so much
33:56
money that wants to get into that.
33:58
We'll want to get into Bitcoin that we don't need to come up
34:02
with like, you know, Middle Eastern buyers or strategic
34:08
reserve or anything else. I think it's just naturally
34:10
we're going to have this mass of money want to find itself there,
34:15
and so I and it will in particular if America is Bitcoin
34:20
friendly and all it just needs to do is well, the most
34:24
important thing, I think is to solve this operation choke .2
34:27
point O, you know, like we need. We need to make banks be able to
34:35
hold Bitcoin. We need to stop cronalizing
34:38
people like you or me who bought Bitcoin a little earlier, you
34:42
know, than than the average dog. And you know, we and we should
34:47
be part of the financial system. That's it, you know, and so, you
34:52
know, and, and, and we should make it legitimate for
34:55
businesses to own Bitcoin. We shouldn't penalize them.
35:00
So we got to end this kind of crusading by the FDIC and
35:05
Elizabeth Warren and everybody else on Bitcoin, right?
35:08
That that's the most important thing.
35:10
Like let's end the crusade on against Bitcoin and Bitcoiners,
35:15
right? Let's stop that.
35:17
And yeah, if you want to, if we can buy some more Bitcoin,
35:21
great. We don't need to do it right
35:23
now. I it's not, I don't think that's
35:25
that's needed. There's so much money out there
35:29
that it will just naturally come into it.
35:32
It'll raise the price naturally. And so and I also, I also in a
35:38
way, I don't want to blow off top either, you know, I actually
35:41
don't want 1, you know, because blow off tops usually follow are
35:47
followed by nuclear winters. You know.
35:51
And I don't know, like I don't want another 2022 or 2018, you
35:57
know, I'd rather have just a mild, you know, correction like
36:01
we had when the Germans sold their Bitcoin.
36:04
Yeah. You know, down 30% whatever.
36:06
OK, like, you know, we don't need, we don't need, we just
36:11
don't need massive people going completely berserk on 100X
36:17
options and everything else. We don't need that.
36:20
That's not that's not good, right Yeah, and companies going
36:24
bankrupt and Sam bank run freeze and all the rest.
36:27
We we really don't need that. Like the best case forward be
36:32
you know, if we doubled this next year, we doubled again in
36:35
2026, like how great would that be?
36:38
You know that would. Be phenomenal.
36:39
Yeah, right. And everybody be a little bit
36:42
upset like, oh, we only, we only went up to 200 K.
36:46
We did a Bitcoin reserve, but we didn't put much on that.
36:48
And fine, I like absolutely fine.
36:51
I'm the happiest guy in the you know, so I just, you know, I,
36:57
you know, I'm just not, I just, I feel like we need to kind of
37:02
stop the like the hype of like the Dennis Porter kind of stuff,
37:07
you know, like Philadelphia, PA signing this and then, you know,
37:12
Ohio's going to do this. Like guys like it doesn't
37:16
matter. Like we're we're not, we're not
37:18
in this race. The hype to blow off this like
37:22
we're good. We already won.
37:24
Now with Trump in we have won. So we have won like we're going
37:29
to win, you know? So, you know, I think it's kind
37:33
of like, you know, smell the roses, enjoy life, and let's not
37:39
get bent out of shape because we don't do a 10X if we do.
37:43
And I'm with you, Nico. Look, human, human greed is such
37:48
that it's very possible that we get some completely insane blow
37:53
off top. It is possible, right?
37:56
Why? Because you know, it's not going
37:59
to be, but it won't be the same kind of people.
38:01
It won't be. It won't be the kind of the D
38:05
Gen. retail from, you know, 2020-2021, right or 2017.
38:12
It won't be. It won't be the same guys who
38:14
bought Tron and you know, and FTX and you know, Solana and
38:20
stuff in 2020. What I think it's going to be is
38:23
a bunch of extremely wealthy rich people who all of a sudden
38:27
sit there and go, wait a second. I, I only own 0.01% of my net
38:34
worth in I bit maybe I increase that to 2% and that if we get
38:41
that shifting, you know that that's that that'll just
38:44
completely, you know that that's what could do it, right?
38:50
Because there's so much to this money that's in real estate,
38:54
that's in bonds, that's in, in, in overpriced stocks.
39:00
And they just, they don't have enough allocation.
39:02
They, they have no allocation to Bitcoin.
39:05
So I'm to me, it's like complete and utter inevitability that
39:10
that happens. But you know, these people are
39:14
very, as you know, they're very, very that we're still at the
39:19
point where they're, they're bad mouthing Bitcoin.
39:22
They're like, yeah, then maybe not really an asset.
39:26
There's no value, no intrinsic value.
39:30
So it may take, it may take a little longer than one year for
39:34
them to completely come to, but I don't think it's going to take
39:37
longer than five years. I think, you know, to me, this
39:45
the horse race started a year ago with the ETF.
39:48
Yes, because before the ETF like you're some wealthy guy in
39:53
Miami, right? You're, I mean, are you going to
39:57
really, you're going to go buy a cold card or learn to use that
40:04
thing and then and then move some money, buy, buy Bitcoin and
40:08
Coinbase and then move it. You're not going to do that,
40:11
right? I mean, the amount of the amount
40:14
of wealthy people who do, who do that, it's like it's very small,
40:18
right? And you know, they're not going
40:21
to leave, they may have a Coinbase account or something,
40:23
but they're not going to leave $5,000,000 on Coinbase, 10
40:27
million, you know what I mean? Like you don't, that's not what
40:30
wealthy people do. You know, they have wealth
40:33
managers, they're conservative. They have places, brokers
40:39
accounts that they had money in for 3050 years, you know, and I
40:45
mean, I've had a I've had my Goldman Sachs account since
40:49
1998, you know what I mean? Or 95, you know.
40:52
So, you know, we're not people, you know, people are cautious
41:02
with their money. They're not, they're not like,
41:05
oh, new paradigm, I'm going to put all my money in Coinbase.
41:08
No, they're not going to do it. So I think it's going to change.
41:12
But all they need to do is just allocate now a very small amount
41:17
into I bet or FBTC and those guys are going to clean up.
41:24
They're just going to clean up. Yeah, all the ETFs.
41:27
But I mean, I think those two in particular are just going to be,
41:32
they're going, I bet is going to become bigger than the S&P SPY.
41:38
It's a. Very strong statement, Fred, but
41:40
I completely agree with you. I mean, it's become the number
41:43
one ETF of all ETFs, right? That's what the, it's just going
41:48
to become the I There's a reason, there's a reason Larry
41:53
Fink is now so bullish on this stuff, is he he probably has the
41:58
best view of where money is going of any person in this
42:02
planet, OK, including Michael Zaylor.
42:06
You know, I'm just saying like, he really he, he is at, he's
42:10
right on the catbird seat. You know, you can see everything
42:14
and he sees like, wait a second, there's all this money that
42:18
could go into ETFs. I want to go into my ETF, right?
42:25
And you know, he's making 20 basis points on, you know, on,
42:32
on $10 trillion. You know, that's $200 billion a
42:38
year. I mean like, you know, the he,
42:39
he's, he's this is, this is going to be.
42:44
And I think where we're headed is that I bet becomes kind of
42:49
like the IT, it is in everybody's growth portfolio.
42:54
Like every single everybody owns some S&P whether it's I bet or I
43:01
bet SPY or the the Vanguard 1, you know, everybody has.
43:08
You don't find an investor who doesn't, who has, does not have
43:11
some allocation to the standard and poor's that's it.
43:15
Everybody does, right. And I think 10 years from now,
43:20
every single investor will have some, I bet everybody, every
43:25
single one will have you know, and it's not going to be 0.1%,
43:31
it's going to be 5%. You know that'll be the norm,
43:37
so. Fred, let me ask you something
43:40
and I, by the way, I completely agree with you.
43:42
I and the reason I agree with you is because the Bitcoin is
43:47
going to outperform the SNP. So it's inevitable that people,
43:53
you know, if you're an investor, you want exposure to that.
43:56
Now, my, my question to you, Fred, is do you agree with
44:01
Sailor's stance that we're going to see a in the, in the early
44:05
days, he believes a 40% compound growth in Bitcoin at least for
44:10
the next 10 years and then it'll start to tail down to like 20%.
44:14
And I mean thing about compound interest, and if anyone is not
44:18
familiar with it, there's so many calculators online like
44:21
it's a reason that Warren Buffett is as wealthy as he is,
44:24
right? And especially like, you know,
44:27
if you do something for 1020 years, 30 years and you have a
44:32
compound interest of 20 percent, 30%, you can grow a great deal
44:38
of wealth, especially the well I'll.
44:42
Give you an example of that because I've been doing a lot of
44:45
kind of digging around in economic history and that, you
44:48
know, if you look back at the Medici's in, you know, in
44:54
Florence in the 13th century, you know, the highest interest
45:00
rate that they ever got was 20%. That's the look, I mean, if
45:06
you're getting double digit interest rates, those things
45:10
compound to massive amounts of money.
45:13
So 40%. I mean, this isn't insane,
45:16
right? It's you know, and obviously
45:19
last year we had 100 hundred and 20%.
45:21
Well, I can't even know 150% right, basically right.
45:26
So, you know, we, we've outperformed it, but all you
45:31
don't need to, you don't, all you need to know is anything
45:35
above 20%. It's amazing, right?
45:38
This is unbelievable. This is like these are wealth
45:40
makers. So I think that you're right.
45:46
The, the, it is the miracle. The, you know, they said it's
45:50
the seventh wonder of the world or the 8th wonder of the world
45:52
is compound interest. And it really is true.
45:56
If, if you can hold on to 20 something that's growing at 20
45:59
thirty 40% for 10 years, you're, you're, you're, you become
46:05
extremely wealthy in, in inside of a decade.
46:10
So I and I think investors are not stupid.
46:16
They're going to look at, I bet they're going to look at what it
46:19
did last year. If it does another good year,
46:21
they're going to just keep on going.
46:22
They're going to be like, OK, I, I like what I'm doing here.
46:25
I'm just keep keep more of this. So you know, I just to me, the
46:31
history of Bitcoin as an institutional investor product
46:37
started last year. So that's it.
46:40
That's when we we're one year in.
46:42
We had a great first year. We had a great first year.
46:45
Now we're going to have our second year.
46:47
If our second year is great, Oh man, that money is just going to
46:50
come in like, you know, it's still it's still like, well, we
46:55
got to still test. It's only a year old, but that,
46:58
you know, typically on Wall Street, if you're, let's say you
47:03
start a new fund or this is a good kind of good example.
47:09
If you start a fund and or you're a trader and somebody
47:13
gives you money, right, Your first year, you have a blowout
47:16
year, you'd do 100% OK, something like that.
47:20
You're going to get a lot more money the second year.
47:22
But if you do it for two years in a row that then people just
47:26
can be like, OK, give this guy all our money.
47:31
That's that's the human psychology, right?
47:35
Like, of course, that's the way things work.
47:37
And so I think, you know, you know, people are going to look
47:41
at the audited results of I bit they're not going to look at
47:47
what Bitcoin did before I bit, you know, they're going to look
47:50
at what happened after the ETF came out, after they could
47:54
finally buy, they could first buy it and that's it.
47:58
So I think we're in for for a very long ride, a really long
48:03
ride. And that's the the main thing I
48:05
want to say is like, you know, you've been in Bitcoin a long
48:09
time, but you know, you've only been in institutional Bitcoin
48:13
the same, same long time as anybody else one year because
48:17
everything you did before that, sort of like it's like AVC when
48:21
they invest in a company, they view that they the time starts
48:25
when they invest. Like whatever happened before
48:28
that, whatever the guys, the founders did before, it doesn't
48:31
matter. Clock starts when the
48:33
institutional money comes in. And I feel like that's where we
48:37
are with Bitcoin D The clock has started on this new thing.
48:41
And the last thing you want to do is use your models from the
48:46
previous era to kind of project the next era.
48:50
But those models are not going to work anymore.
48:52
Like you may think, Oh, well, it's going to do this.
48:55
The mining is the cycles. Oh great, you sold, you sold in
48:59
and you want to you want to kind of time it so better than
49:03
anybody else you're going to sell in August of this year
49:06
great, you're going to sell in August you're going to be up 60
49:08
percent, 70% and you're going to you're going to think you're
49:12
going to miss the crash of 2026, except there won't be a crash of
49:15
2026 and there won't be a crash of 2027 and you know it, it'll
49:21
just keep on going up. So, you know, I all I know is
49:26
I'm not smart enough to say that I think 2026 is going to be a
49:31
down year. So I'm definitely huddling
49:34
through from here on out. You know, now that's.
49:39
A good point. That's what I'm doing now on on
49:43
the other hand, will I sell a little bit just to spend it?
49:47
Not, not not for, you know, not for portfolio reason, but just
49:56
buy something, you know, maybe, yeah, probably, you know, you
50:00
know, I'll just I might peel off some money, do something.
50:04
I don't know, I don't know what, but you know, like you, but I
50:10
think I think money's meant to be spent.
50:12
But I think that I do think that we're in, we're in kind of now
50:16
for a long, a long, very positive route, similar to
50:21
buying Apple stock, you know, in 2010 or something, or Amazon
50:25
2010, you know, and you know those, I can tell you, look, I
50:31
owned Apple in 2008 and I bought it when they first came out with
50:39
the iPhone. I was like, oh man, this thing's
50:41
going to be great. The stock doubled.
50:44
It did bad and then it doubled and recouped after 2010.
50:48
I said I'm done. I've great trade, fantastic
50:51
stock went up 50 times after that 50 times.
50:55
OK, Apple has gone up 50 times from 2010 till now.
51:01
That's crazy. And, you know, do they have a
51:03
new product? Not really.
51:04
They have the watch. You know, they have the watch.
51:08
You know what I mean? The iPhone came out while I
51:11
still had Apple shares. I bought in a little bit along
51:14
the way, but I had a pretty big position in Apple.
51:18
And you know, Amazon, you know, you could, you know, you could
51:24
have avoided the crash of of 2000, but then afterwards, it's
51:34
afterwards that even in the last decade, Amazon just did
51:37
phenomenal, right? So it was a very mature company.
51:41
Nothing fantastically new or there was no, there was no
51:46
strategic reserve that moved Amazon up, right?
51:49
Just went up, just kept on going up, right.
51:52
So I think Bitcoin's going to be like that.
51:54
It's going to be, it's not going to be like we need this
51:56
strategic reserve. We need this Saudi Sheikh to buy
51:58
it. This thing's just going to work.
52:01
This thing will just work and it will work.
52:06
And really you got to, you got to just extend your time frame
52:08
to about a decade. And I think you got to figure
52:11
out, OK, how do I make sure that I have Bitcoin, my core position
52:17
throughout this decade? So whatever your plan is, you
52:21
got to make sure that you don't, do not sell more than 20% of
52:25
your Bitcoin for, for the next 10 years.
52:28
So you got, you got that 20%. You can play around with, you
52:32
can do, you know, do whatever you want, but keep 80.
52:35
As long as you keep 70 or 80%, the numbers are going to just
52:38
they're going to be amazing for you.
52:40
Yeah, all of us old timers are going to be really, I think are
52:46
going to really, really benefit from just the the pure growth
52:50
factor and that. And I think that the key is just
52:53
to kind of keep a level head and stay calm and understand there
52:57
will be volatility and fine, you know, we're OK with it.
53:01
And it's honestly it's volatility.
53:05
When you bought your you, you came in 2016, right?
53:08
So, but like $500 Bitcoin, right?
53:11
Yep, right. So first. 1st, 1st, 1st Bitcoin
53:15
was $670. OK, 670.
53:18
Yeah, I remember when it crossed 1000, man, that was that was a
53:21
crazy time. Yeah.
53:23
And that was like, again, right. Because, you know, of course it
53:28
was there in 2013. But you know, you know, but
53:33
yeah, the, but you know, if you bought Bitcoin at 500 and it
53:38
goes from 100,000 to 50,000, it hurts a little bit, but it's not
53:45
a panic attack, right? On the other hand, if you went
53:51
huge all in right now at 100,000 it goes and it sort of ticks
53:55
down to 50,000. That's kind of that, that's
53:59
where the you, you, you do have panic attacks at that point.
54:05
So I think it gets, it gets easier as you're older, as you,
54:08
you're further into this, right? It definitely gets easier.
54:13
Well, it's because like, you know, like I, you know, I've had
54:17
this conversation with with my wife's parents, you know, tried
54:20
to orange build them for a very long time and eventually they
54:23
listened to me. But you know, eventually, like
54:27
one of the questions that I get from my father-in-law, which is
54:29
like, are you going to sell? And, and I'm like, look like
54:34
unless Bitcoin is going to the below 10K region, like I'm OK,
54:42
I'm fine. You know, I'm, I'm going to be
54:44
up, right? So like, that's kind of like the
54:48
way I look at it. But again, you have to pay your
54:51
dues. You have to put in the, you have
54:53
to put in the work and go through the cycles.
54:55
Now you. Got to get, I think the main
54:57
thing. Look, Michael Saylor came in a
55:00
lot later than most of us did. I mean, yeah, he had a lot.
55:04
More capital, though. Yeah, yeah, but what I'm saying
55:06
is you and I were we predated Michael Saylor, right?
55:11
OK. And for me, it was 2019 when I
55:14
really saw the light, right. But and he was 2016, right?
55:19
So Sailor was 2020, you know, so I think the, the thing about
55:27
Saylor is though, he, it wasn't only the capital, it's just he
55:31
developed really strong conviction in a very, very early
55:38
and I think that's the difference, right?
55:40
The difference is what's your level of conviction?
55:44
How convinced are you that this thing called Bitcoin is actually
55:50
going to be probably the foundation of the, the world
55:54
financial economy 20 years from now?
55:58
You know, and I, I can, I basically talk to some
56:04
Bitcoiners and stuff and that's sort of the first thing I
56:06
internally try to figure out is, are they really as convinced as
56:10
me that we are talking about something that will, will 100%
56:18
be uniform, it'll have 100% penetration down the road?
56:23
Like, because I think a lot of people still don't, even if
56:27
they've made money, even if they were early, even if they got
56:29
another cycle, they still don't really think that they really
56:35
don't think people are going to be using Bitcoin and they don't,
56:38
they don't see the, you know, the end game of hyper
56:41
bitcoinization. But I think, I think a lot, you
56:45
know, there are a bunch of us who do, right, a bunch of us who
56:50
really can see this thing. And we, we were like, this is
56:54
going to, this is going to happen.
56:55
You know, I, I can't tell you exactly how it's going to happen
57:00
with what strategic reserve or this or that or I don't know,
57:03
like, you know, but I can just tell you that I think sailor's
57:08
geniuses that he realized, OK, this is definitely going to
57:12
happen. I, I'm 100% convinced this is
57:16
going to happen. You know, given that he has that
57:19
conviction, you know, how, how do you Orient your portfolio
57:25
given that conviction? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
57:30
And I think he's done an amazing job at that, you know?
57:33
100% I mean, he just double s down.
57:35
He, he, he really believes and, and, and I think you, you hit
57:38
the nail on the, on the, you hit the, the nail on the head there,
57:41
Fred, where you pointed out his ability to learn Bitcoin in such
57:48
a short period of time. You know what, usually it takes
57:53
at least one or two years minimum.
57:56
Most people takes a little bit longer than that.
58:00
But his ability to grasp it from such a in such a short period of
58:04
time and then just double down and, you know, leverage his
58:07
company, borrow money, buy Bitcoin, rinse and repeat, is
58:12
definitely, you know, and This is why his stock outperformed
58:15
basically every company, including NVIDIA, which is
58:19
absolutely insane, right? But I have a question for you,
58:22
Fred, which is, and we are getting to the top of the hour,
58:24
and I do want to be respectful of your time.
58:26
Yeah. No.
58:27
Problem are we if people are listening to this now and
58:31
they're running into this podcast and they're they see you
58:35
on Twitter, they see you talking and they see simply talking and
58:39
they're like what is this Bitcoin thing Are they late to
58:41
Bitcoin? Is it too late to buy Bitcoin
58:44
Fred and and benefit from it well?
58:46
I mean, we're super early. We're very, very early.
58:50
I mean, this is, this is like we're the beginning of a
58:55
probably a 20 year journey of massively high returns.
59:03
It's it's going to be, we're going to have massively high
59:05
returns for 20 or maybe even 30 years.
59:08
That that's basically, I think where we are.
59:10
So you know, it, it's we're you're, you're nowhere.
59:15
You're at the beginning like you're in the first inning.
59:18
So I think you're not at all late.
59:22
And you know, there's something, there's something very fractally
59:25
about Bitcoin that it kind of like, you know, in a way 2024 is
59:31
Bitcoin was never cheap. Remember when you bought your
59:35
first Bitcoin, Nico? It was expensive.
59:36
I, I, I thought I lost the train and look I did.
59:41
I was very young at the time. I was very kind of desperate
59:44
point in my life. So I I for you.
59:48
Know what the same feeling you have about Oh my God is the am I
59:52
late it's 2016 this thing is this thing was discovered OK you
1:00:00
know seven years ago the the. Point I was trying to make,
1:00:04
Fred, is that like, so when I got in, it was again, it was
1:00:09
under 1000 bucks. And for the the first cycle, so
1:00:13
the first four years I did whatever humanly possible to put
1:00:18
as much as my income into Bitcoin and I was very desperate
1:00:21
and I wanted to get out of the situation that I was in.
1:00:24
However, I thought I was late because I met people that bought
1:00:29
Bitcoin under $100. I bought, I I met people that
1:00:32
bought Bitcoin at $100 or $200. If I knew where Bitcoin would be
1:00:36
today, instead of putting 80% of what I had, I think I would have
1:00:40
put 95 to 100. I think I would have.
1:00:43
Borrowed 9. Dixon bought Bitcoin at $0.10.
1:00:46
I would have borrowed. Wayne, Wayne bought, Wayne
1:00:49
bought. You know who I do the podcast
1:00:52
with? He bought Bitcoin at, you know,
1:00:54
a dollar, you know what I mean? Like.
1:00:55
So crazy. You know it.
1:00:57
But. Yeah, you just have to get it.
1:01:00
You have to get it doesn't matter like, but I'm what I'm
1:01:04
trying to say is that those feelings are all the feeling
1:01:08
that you had in 2016 is the same feeling that some new guy is
1:01:11
going to have in 202425 Excuse me now looking at $100,000
1:01:17
Bitcoin. You know it, it doesn't it
1:01:20
doesn't matter you're you're not you're you're you're very, very
1:01:23
early. This is less, less than 1% of
1:01:29
rich people even have any Bitcoin.
1:01:32
So it we're, we're, we're tremendously early.
1:01:36
There's going to be a lot of great gains.
1:01:39
But it it's going to be, you know, Bitcoin only just and,
1:01:48
and, and don't try to time it. I mean, that's, that's the main
1:01:51
thing. Everybody who's trying to time
1:01:54
it is going to screw up, in my opinion.
1:01:56
I don't know. Yeah.
1:01:58
My my, my gut feels they're going to screw up. 100% I, I, I
1:02:02
have met more, I've met so many people in this industry for so
1:02:06
long. And the general idea that I get
1:02:09
the general thing, and I completely agree with this is
1:02:12
don't trade and stay away from, from all coins.
1:02:16
And if I followed those two pieces of advice, I would
1:02:19
probably have more Bitcoin today than I did if I didn't do any of
1:02:25
those things, if I just stuck to DCA ING and staying humble
1:02:28
stacking SAT staying salt. So.
1:02:30
But anyways, we are getting to the top of the hour, Fred and I
1:02:33
do want to be respectful of your time, no?
1:02:36
Problem. Thank you so much for joining me
1:02:38
today. I think this is the second
1:02:40
one-on-one conversation that I've had with you.
1:02:43
Absolutely pleasure and huge fan of of the big Bitcoin book.
1:02:49
I totally bought myself a copy and big fan.
1:02:54
We had a lot of fun writing it. It was, it's, it's super, super
1:02:58
awesome. I'm really glad to see that it
1:03:00
succeeded. Can you tell everybody where to
1:03:02
follow you, what you're working on?
1:03:06
If they just want to stay on top of what Fred Krueger is doing,
1:03:10
where can they find you? Just go to my Twitter dot
1:03:14
Krueger and I have a link also to a website likefredkrueger.org
1:03:18
I think is this and I just have other links there.
1:03:22
I have links of everything from books I'm reading to articles,
1:03:29
videos about Bitcoin that I think are cool.
1:03:33
And what am I working on now? I'll tell you that we're we're
1:03:37
talking now about a potentially a an art project, an art book on
1:03:43
Bitcoin. We're we're thinking about it
1:03:45
where so that's that's something that's going to be pretty
1:03:48
interesting. Sort of we'll see if that how,
1:03:51
how that thing evolves. But I'm very, very exciting at
1:03:54
that. And yeah, and you know, I'm
1:03:57
primarily just a Bitcoin error, but I'm, I'm also looking at
1:04:00
investing in potentially some Bitcoin related things, you
1:04:04
know, not as a fund or anything, just just myself.
1:04:07
Fred Krueger. So yeah, I mean, I'm ultimately
1:04:12
just go to Doc Krueger. There's a link to my YouTube
1:04:15
there. You can see I put some videos up
1:04:17
on YouTube for you can see that you can go back and look at some
1:04:20
of them. And yeah, the other thing I was
1:04:23
going to say what I'm very, very kind of long term, you know, my
1:04:26
intellectual hobbies right now I'm really trying to research
1:04:30
the history of money and, you know, and figure out kind of
1:04:36
what, where, where, where, what does it look like when we're
1:04:41
hyper Bitcoin is what does lending look like in a world
1:04:44
where we're completely on a Bitcoin standard?
1:04:47
What do banks look like? You know, how what does the
1:04:50
world look like on a Bitcoin standard?
1:04:52
So these are sort of general questions I'm very interested
1:04:55
in. I've been doing a ton of reading
1:04:57
of, you know, very everything from the 19th century America
1:05:06
to, to, you know, medieval Italy.
1:05:09
So yeah. Yeah, and you can even make an
1:05:12
argument that, you know, a big reason as to why the Roman
1:05:16
Empire fell was because of inflation.
1:05:19
And that's just such a crazy rabbit hole, the history.
1:05:22
Of Roman was fascinating. That's true.
1:05:24
So yeah, I mean, look, I think it's as Bitcoiners, one of the
1:05:28
things we are, we're developed. We we have this.
1:05:32
We're not I would say macro guys, but we, we kind of go, OK,
1:05:36
well, there's this new there's new money that we're we're all
1:05:39
committed to. And then we're like, how do we
1:05:40
get into this mess? You know what, how did we evolve
1:05:44
here? You know, and I'm not trying to
1:05:46
say it's a conspiracy theory. I think it's more of a it's sort
1:05:50
of trial and error, right? We, we tried with gold.
1:05:53
Well, that's not not portable enough.
1:05:55
So we need notes and OK, then we need to put our gold in some
1:06:00
bank And but the bank needs a business model.
1:06:02
They're going to lend it out. Oh, they're going to go
1:06:04
bankrupt, you know that. So there's, you know, I think
1:06:08
we're sort of iterating on humans have been iterating on
1:06:12
kind of the use of money over the last couple 100 years in
1:06:14
particular. And I think Bitcoin is kind of
1:06:17
the ultimate net result of that, right.
1:06:20
I think, you know, we, we finally cracked the puzzle.
1:06:25
And I think Bitcoin's I I think Bitcoin's going to be the money
1:06:28
for the next 1000 years or 100 years or something, you know, I
1:06:32
think it will become the world. Money and I, I, I think it's
1:06:36
really interesting to see to think how do we get from there
1:06:40
to here and what does it look like 20 years from now?
1:06:44
Do we even have banks anymore? I mean, what do we do, you know,
1:06:48
how, how, how do, how do businesses get funding?
1:06:51
You know, how to, how does that work?
1:06:53
Like so there's all these really, you know, what does an
1:06:56
interest rate look like in a hyper bitcoinized world, right?
1:06:59
I, I love asking those kind of questions and a lot of people
1:07:02
don't know the answer to it. Like, you know, I've asked this
1:07:05
question on Twitter and people are like, it'll be negative or
1:07:08
it'll be positive, like it'll, it'll be really high.
1:07:12
It'll be not so high. So we're clearly there's no
1:07:15
consensus at all as to what, what, what that world looks
1:07:19
like, right? Because we've been in this Fiat
1:07:21
world for so long. What does the world after Fiat
1:07:26
look like? I find it fascinating.
1:07:29
Yeah, 100%. And it's going to completely
1:07:32
dramatically change the world. And I think it's going to make
1:07:35
the world's for like it's going to make the world a much better
1:07:38
place. I truly, truly believe that in
1:07:40
my heart. Anyways, Fred, thank you so much
1:07:43
for for joining us today. Appreciate it.