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On a knife’s edge in the Middle East · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm christinamio.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, September thirty. A hung parliament is looking more
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  Speaker 1: likely at the next election as Labour's approval rating slides
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  Speaker 1: in key states. New data from Newspoll shows the coalition
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  Speaker 1: is also struggling to drum up support. You can read
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  Speaker 1: our experts state by state analysis of those new numbers
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  Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dot au. Queensland's
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  Speaker 1: courts will narrow the scope of DNA testing in an
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  Speaker 1: attempt to clear a backlog of rape and murder cases.
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  Speaker 1: More than one hundred major crime cases are languishing in
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  Speaker 1: the forensic testing queue as the state run lab struggles
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  Speaker 1: to retest samples from the more than forty thousand cases
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  Speaker 1: caught up in the nation's biggest ever DNA disaster. The
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  Speaker 1: Middle East is tittering on a knife's edge after Hesbal
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  Speaker 1: alider Hassan Nasrallah was killed by a targeted Israeli airstrike
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  Speaker 1: on Saturday. Now the world is waiting to see if
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  Speaker 1: Hesbela's powerful backup Iran will retaliate. That's today's episode. For
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  Speaker 1: days Now, cities and towns across Lebanon have been rocked
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  Speaker 1: by explosions for days. Protesters in nearby Iran and Yemen
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  Speaker 1: have rallied against the deadly Israeli air strikes, and now
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  Speaker 1: for three days from today, the streets will quiet, Flags
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  Speaker 1: around Lebanon will fly at half mast, and public buildings
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  Speaker 1: will close. On Monday morning, an official nationwide morning period
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  Speaker 1: will begin. Following the death of one of Lebanon's fiery
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  Speaker 1: and long standing political leaders.
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  Speaker 2: HESBLA has confirmed its leader, hazard Nazrula, is dead. The
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  Speaker 2: Israeli Defense Force says it targeted at the nerve center
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  Speaker 2: of HESBLA headquarters in Beirut in a fresh wave of strikes.
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  Speaker 1: Her son, Nozrala, was thirty two years old when he
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  Speaker 1: became Hesbeala's secretary General. He was appointed after his predecessor,
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  Speaker 1: Abbas al Maasawi was killed by Israeli forces in nineteen
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  Speaker 1: ninety two. In the subsequent three decades, Nzralla transformed the
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  Speaker 1: Shia Muslim group from a guerrilla militia to a political
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  Speaker 1: force known as the Party of God.
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  Speaker 3: Akadmamulf Halaym was.
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  Speaker 1: His singular focus was on the eradication of Israel and
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  Speaker 1: the United States from Lebanon, and his career has been
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  Speaker 1: defined by conflict with his nation's southern neighbour. He's credited
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  Speaker 1: with ending eighteen years of Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon
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  Speaker 1: and was declared the winner of a thirty four day
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  Speaker 1: war with Israel in two thousand and six, despite the
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  Speaker 1: extensive damage inflicted upon Lebanese forces and infrastructure, and Hesbela
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  Speaker 1: has sporadically joined the assault on Israel following a deadly
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  Speaker 1: invasion by Hamas on October seven, launching thousands of missiles
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  Speaker 1: across the border in a show of solidarity with the
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  Speaker 1: terrorist group. A charismatic leader and a shrewd strategist, Nozrella
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  Speaker 1: spent his final years as a recluse, broadcasting speeches and
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  Speaker 1: public addresses from secret locations out of fear he would
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  Speaker 1: be assassinated if he appeared in public. In his final
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  Speaker 1: broadcast on September nineteen, Nozrella condemned Israel's attack on pages
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  Speaker 1: and walkie talkies used by Hesbela fighters and vowed retaliation.
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  Speaker 3: Mahamakan Wa La Kumana, the Al Kabila and Masa Lamputna
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  Speaker 3: Vale and Charlah helptl Aadu, the Jeshladum al ador.
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  Speaker 4: I think this is an important victory for Israel. The
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  Speaker 4: sophistication and effectiveness of Israel's entire operation over this period
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  Speaker 4: has been extraordinary.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor.
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  Speaker 4: They virtually destroyed the entirety of Hesbela's leadership, and it
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  Speaker 4: restores the mystique of Israeli power throughout the region, the
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  Speaker 4: sense that Israeli intelligence is unfathomable and unstoppable. And it
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  Speaker 4: doesn't mean the end of Hezbollah, but it's a tremendous
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  Speaker 4: blow to Hesbelah and a tremendous victory for Israel.
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  Speaker 1: And what's the significance of this moment in the conflict
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  Speaker 1: in the Middle East? Is this a start of something bigger.
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  Speaker 4: Israel has a lot of strategic objectives in what it's
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  Speaker 4: doing at the moment. It's operating on many levels at once,
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  Speaker 4: but one of its objectives is to destroy the so
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  Speaker 4: called ring of fire that Iran has created around it
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  Speaker 4: with its many proxy horses. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon
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  Speaker 4: and Hamas in Magaza. Strip Israel has destroyed Hamas as
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  Speaker 4: a military force, and it is tremendously degrading Hezbolah. That
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  Speaker 4: not only makes Israel more secure, but it reduces Iran's
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  Speaker 4: strategic power. So these are very big changes in the
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  Speaker 4: regional power equations. They don't settle things for ever more,
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  Speaker 4: nothing ever does in the Middle East, but they're big
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  Speaker 4: changes in themselves.
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  Speaker 1: Iran has backed Hesbela from the get go, training soldiers
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  Speaker 1: and funneling billions of dollars of funding to Lebanon. In
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  Speaker 1: a statement released by the Israeli Defense Force, Prime Minister
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  Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had settled the score with Hesbelah,
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  Speaker 1: and he issued a warning to Iran, saying nowhere was
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  Speaker 1: beyond the IDF's reach. The question now is if and
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  Speaker 1: how Iran retaliates for the death of one of its
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  Speaker 1: closest allies.
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  Speaker 4: I don't expect Iran to do all that much, to
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  Speaker 4: be honest, for a couple of reasons. First of all,
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  Speaker 4: Iran has always been happy to fight to the last Palestinian,
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  Speaker 4: the last Lebanese, and the last Arab in its battles
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  Speaker 4: against Israel. It doesn't like fighting itself. And because really
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  Speaker 4: of the weakness of Joe Biden's administration in Washington, Iran
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  Speaker 4: has been able to deploy all these proxies in really
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  Speaker 4: violent actions, and Iran hasn't paid any penalty at all. Now,
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  Speaker 4: if Iran takes military action against Israel, it's hard to
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  Speaker 4: know what that action would be, but the consequences for
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  Speaker 4: Iran would be horrendous. I mean, Israel is re establishing
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  Speaker 4: the credibility of its deterrance. Here. De terrance stops war.
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  Speaker 4: If you want peace, prepared for war, and if you
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  Speaker 4: are very well armed, people leave you alone. But for
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  Speaker 4: de terrance to work, it has to live actively in
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  Speaker 4: the minds of your enemies. And I think if Iran
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  Speaker 4: attacks Israel right now, three things are likely. First, Israel
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  Speaker 4: will strike Iran, and it will do so very hard. Secondly,
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  Speaker 4: the first thing Israel will attack will be Around's nuclear facilities,
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  Speaker 4: so they'll be destroyed in a minute. And then thirdly,
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  Speaker 4: it's very likely that the Americans would get involved, and
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  Speaker 4: this can work in a lot of different ways. The
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  Speaker 4: Americans certainly won't put boots on the ground to help
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  Speaker 4: the Israeli there's no chance of that, but they will
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  Speaker 4: help them in intercepting missiles that might come from Iran,
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  Speaker 4: and they may very well help them with direct strikes
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  Speaker 4: on Iran, and if push comes to shove, Biden will
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  Speaker 4: apply force. So put all that together, and there are
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  Speaker 4: a lot of arguments for Iran being pretty judicious and
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  Speaker 4: cautious here blood curdling rhetoric. Anything can happen, but I'd
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  Speaker 4: be surprised if Iran initiated a major war anytime soon.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what's Israel's next move? Subscribe us to the Australian.
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  Speaker 1: Get access to this kind of detailed analysis around the clock.
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  Speaker 1: Check us out at the Australian dot com and we'll
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  Speaker 1: be back after the break.
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  Speaker 5: As long as Kizballah chooses the path of war, Israel
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  Speaker 5: has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove
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  Speaker 5: this threat and return our citizens to their home safely.
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  Speaker 5: And that's exactly what we're doing.
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  Speaker 1: This is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He's speaking at
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  Speaker 1: a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.
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  Speaker 5: Ladies and gentlemen, Israel has made its choice. We seek
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  Speaker 5: to move forward to a bright age of prosperity and peace.
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  Speaker 5: Iran and its proxies have also made their choice. They
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  Speaker 5: want to move back to a dark age of terror
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  Speaker 5: and war. And now I have a question, and I
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  Speaker 5: pose that question to you, what choice will you make?
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  Speaker 1: A day earlier, Netanyah who rejected a twenty one day
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  Speaker 1: cease fire deal proposed by France and the United States
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  Speaker 1: designed to prevent the Middle Eastern conflict from spiraling into
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  Speaker 1: an all out war, and within hours of that historic speech,
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  Speaker 1: he ordered the massive strike on Hesbeala's headquarters that killed
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  Speaker 1: Hassan Nazraalah. US President Joe Biden said Nasralla's death is
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  Speaker 1: a measure of justice for his many civilian victims, and
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  Speaker 1: said ultimately he hopes the conflict can be de escalated
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  Speaker 1: through diplomatic endeavors. Biden's staunch support of Israel may explain
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  Speaker 1: the timing of Israel's assault on Lebanon. Here's Greg Sheridan.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, so Biden is a mixed grill. Of course, Biden
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  Speaker 4: is a lifelong friend of Israel, and he's an old
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  Speaker 4: style democrat. I think he's a dithering, pretty hopeless president,
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  Speaker 4: but he lets the American system operate, and his instincts
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  Speaker 4: solidarity with American allies, of which Israel called is a
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  Speaker 4: top usli and also solidarity for Israel, solidarity for the
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  Speaker 4: only democracy in the Middle East. Kamala Harris has none
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  Speaker 4: of that. She has none of Joe Biden's pro Israel
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  Speaker 4: outlook in her foreign policy makeup, in so far as
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  Speaker 4: she has any foreign policy views. Now, I think Israel
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  Speaker 4: is thinking in part that it wants to restructure the
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  Speaker 4: security environment around it. It wants to get rid of
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  Speaker 4: Iran's ring of fire, and it wants to change the
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  Speaker 4: equation for Iran in terms of cost benefit for any
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  Speaker 4: future conflict with Israel. And I'm sure it wants to
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  Speaker 4: do all that while Biden is still president. But if
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  Speaker 4: it gets this all done while Biden is president, Harris
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  Speaker 4: has to support. She certainly cannot contradict Biden on a
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  Speaker 4: matter like this a minute before the election. So I
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  Speaker 4: think the Israelis would be happy to get all this
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  Speaker 4: done while Harris is still under Biden's discipline, and in
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  Speaker 4: the context of a very tight election campaign.
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  Speaker 1: Israel is now fighting a war on two fronts, up
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  Speaker 1: north in Lebanon and down south in Gaza, and to date,
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  Speaker 1: ceasefire deals in either conflict have evaded negotiators. So are
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  Speaker 1: we getting any closer?
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  Speaker 4: A lot of the ceasefire talk is blooney. Really, If
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  Speaker 4: Hummas had any concern for the suffering of the Palestinian people.
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  Speaker 4: It could have had a ceasefire any day at light
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  Speaker 4: over the last twelve months just by releasing the hostages,
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  Speaker 4: and Israel, under American guidance, offered pretty generous cease fires
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  Speaker 4: all the way through, so who knows how many hostages
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  Speaker 4: are left alive. With Hezbola, you can't talk about a
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  Speaker 4: ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon because the Lebanese government has
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  Speaker 4: no control, hardly has any influence over what Hezbola does.
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  Speaker 4: So Hezbolah would have to commit to not firing any
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  Speaker 4: more rockets at Israel again ever, or at least for
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  Speaker 4: a long time. And since October seven, Hesbela has fired
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  Speaker 4: about nine thousand rocketshones and other projectiles at Israel. So
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  Speaker 4: Israel is not going to embark on an action of
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  Speaker 4: this magnitude and then stop after five minutes unless there's
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  Speaker 4: a very comprehensive agreement from Hesbelo. It's not a ceasepire
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  Speaker 4: between two chess players and you're just asking them to
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  Speaker 4: accept an honorable draw here or Somethingsbelar is fired by
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  Speaker 4: a religious and cataclysmic ideology of hatred of Jews and
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  Speaker 4: hatred of Israel and hatred of the West, and until
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  Speaker 4: you get very big assurance and very credible assurance from
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  Speaker 4: Hesbelas that it's finished with the attacks on Israel. That's
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  Speaker 4: not to say Israel will go on forever, but Israel
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  Speaker 4: will keep going until it feels it's achieved its military objectives.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor. This story is
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  Speaker 1: developing quickly. For all our latest reporting and analysis, go
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: to the Australian dot com.
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  Speaker 5: Don't a you