Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Why Latin America is Attractive to Global Investors
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Marin Talks Money,
- 0:19Speaker 1: the podcast in which people who know the markets explain
- 0:21Speaker 1: the markets. I'm Meren Sunset Web. This week, I want
- 0:24Speaker 1: to focus in on a market that I think global
- 0:27Speaker 1: portfolios are not paying enough attention to, Latin America. I
- 0:32Speaker 1: wrote a column a few weeks ago which I hope
- 0:33Speaker 1: you all read, making the case for investors to think
- 0:36Speaker 1: more actively about the region. It's currently very cheap relative
- 0:40Speaker 1: to more expensive markets such as the US in particular,
- 0:43Speaker 1: and also cheap relative to much of the rest of
- 0:46Speaker 1: the emerging markets universe. There's a lot of good dividends
- 0:49Speaker 1: around as well, and of course it's often passed up
- 0:52Speaker 1: because it's categorized as an emerging market and all lumped
- 0:55Speaker 1: together as one, and this of course is very misleading.
- 0:58Speaker 1: So in this episode are going to talk about the
- 1:00Speaker 1: investment potential of Latin America. And joining me to do
- 1:03Speaker 1: that is Jose Manuel Silba, the chief investment officer and
- 1:07Speaker 1: partner of laren Vial Asset Management, which is one of
- 1:11Speaker 1: the leading investment houses in Chile. Welcome Jose, Thank you
- 1:14Speaker 1: so much for joining us today.
- 1:16Speaker 2: Thank you very much, joining good morning for us, good
- 1:18Speaker 2: after for you, probably in for me.
- 1:20Speaker 1: Absolutely, we've got quite a lot to get through. So
- 1:23Speaker 1: let's just start, if you don't mind, by addressing this
- 1:26Speaker 1: issue of the emerging markets categorization. If you look up
- 1:30Speaker 1: the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, you will find that in
- 1:34Speaker 1: there you have Brazil named as sort of four point
- 1:37Speaker 1: four percent of the index. Nothing else in Latin America
- 1:40Speaker 1: is mentioned at all. It's all just under other, a
- 1:42Speaker 1: little bit of lump of the other, nothing special in there.
- 1:46Speaker 1: And the question, of course is whether many of these
- 1:48Speaker 1: markets should even be classified as emerging markets at all.
- 1:51Speaker 1: None of it really makes sense, does it.
- 1:54Speaker 2: Yeah, Because, for instance, in the emerging markets you have
- 1:56Speaker 2: countries like Taiwan or South Korea which probably you define
- 2:00Speaker 2: them as developed countries today. And additionally, of course it's
- 2:03Speaker 2: a categorization which mixes countries with very different type of
- 2:08Speaker 2: microeconomic and microeconomic settings. Companies or countries which are very
- 2:14Speaker 2: related to Asia, to China, to the Chinese microeconomic I
- 2:19Speaker 2: would say cycle, some other countries which are much more
- 2:22Speaker 2: related to the European economic cycle, and others much more
- 2:25Speaker 2: related to the US economic cycle. Countries which produce technology.
- 2:30Speaker 2: After the countries produce a lot of commodities. But really
- 2:33Speaker 2: you are mixing there a lot of different countries, and
- 2:36Speaker 2: actually even in the Latin universe you have quite a
- 2:40Speaker 2: mix of countries and different types of I would say
- 2:43Speaker 2: macro and microeconomic settings.
- 2:46Speaker 1: And there's also the sense, isn't it that if something
- 2:48Speaker 1: is an emerging market, it comes with weak institutions and
- 2:52Speaker 1: almost the sense of some kind of political chaos or volatility.
- 2:56Speaker 1: And that is something that one may in the past
- 2:58Speaker 1: have associated with Latin mimer. There's political volatility all over
- 3:02Speaker 1: the place, but at the moment you look around the
- 3:04Speaker 1: world and we've got a bastion in stability here.
- 3:07Speaker 2: Yeah, what happens is, luckily the developed world has become
- 3:10Speaker 2: more volatile, I would say in terms of institutions, some
- 3:14Speaker 2: of the institutions that have made the developed world what
- 3:17Speaker 2: it is are I would say, under attack those four
- 3:21Speaker 2: apps that Professor Neil Ferguson always says that the Western
- 3:24Speaker 2: world downloaded so that the Western world became what it
- 3:28Speaker 2: is now. Probably a lot of people are doubting if
- 3:31Speaker 2: it was a good idea to download those apps, which
- 3:34Speaker 2: I think is a bigger or to have that idea.
- 3:37Speaker 2: But really, and on this hand that the emerging market countries,
- 3:41Speaker 2: many of them have been doing quite a lot of
- 3:45Speaker 2: reforms in the last thirty four years, twenty five years.
- 3:49Speaker 2: That's the case of America, but also that's what you
- 3:51Speaker 2: see in Asia. Some of those countries are growing a
- 3:54Speaker 2: lot and are improving the institutions a lot. In many ways,
- 3:58Speaker 2: they still have weak in situations, but I would say
- 4:01Speaker 2: the gap between the spe quality spread between institutions between
- 4:06Speaker 2: the developed world and the emerging market world have closen, yeah,
- 4:10Speaker 2: very much. So twenty years I would say.
- 4:13Speaker 1: Yeah, while we're talking about political stability, let's have a
- 4:16Speaker 1: quick talk about the United States trumps America and how
- 4:20Speaker 1: that affects the region as a whole. We might come
- 4:23Speaker 1: onto more specific countries in our relationships with the US
- 4:26Speaker 1: no of course, for China later, but as an overall view,
- 4:30Speaker 1: how does Trump's America affect the relationship with Latin America.
- 4:35Speaker 2: It's difficult to say, because on the one hand, of course,
- 4:38Speaker 2: you see a United States which in a way it's
- 4:41Speaker 2: closing on itself or probably after many many years where
- 4:46Speaker 2: the United States was the guy that led the globalization
- 4:50Speaker 2: process and led institutions that in a way, the developidation tours.
- 4:55Speaker 2: You know, all agreement after the World War, you know,
- 4:58Speaker 2: the gap agreements and now called WTO and how the
- 5:03Speaker 2: US led the world after the Berlin World fell. All
- 5:06Speaker 2: of that is under I would say attack. Now in
- 5:08Speaker 2: the US. Probably it's true that there's a part of
- 5:11Speaker 2: the US middle class that was under heavy attack by
- 5:15Speaker 2: Asian competition. So probably that those people are a bit
- 5:19Speaker 2: angry under wages and under instability, and so in a
- 5:24Speaker 2: way one feels that the US is closing itself, you know.
- 5:28Speaker 2: It's there's a book which is called the Closing of
- 5:31Speaker 2: the American Mind by HOWD Blumer. We could call this
- 5:33Speaker 2: the closing of the American market.
- 5:36Speaker 1: Yeah, this could be a positive in some ways for
- 5:37Speaker 1: Latin America because from America is pulling back from the
- 5:41Speaker 1: wider world that's pulling back into the Americas.
- 5:44Speaker 2: Yes, that's true. That's for instance. That's why what our
- 5:47Speaker 2: partner Leuvan Song gav have suggested for some years now.
- 5:51Speaker 2: He talks about Fort Monroe, you know, relating this to
- 5:55Speaker 2: the Monroe Doctrine, which was this rectrem in the nineteenth
- 5:58Speaker 2: century who said America's to the Americans, you know, so
- 6:01Speaker 2: keep the European powers out of the America. And in
- 6:04Speaker 2: a way now the US is saying we should perhaps
- 6:08Speaker 2: retreat to this fortress, you know, fortress America. They talk
- 6:12Speaker 2: about the Western world, and there was involved for them
- 6:14Speaker 2: is all of the Americas. And for instance, Predident Trump
- 6:18Speaker 2: appointed a point and first minister. He's a Latin, Marco Rubio.
- 6:23Speaker 2: He is married to a Columbian lady. He knows very
- 6:27Speaker 2: well Latin America. He's a friend of many politicians in
- 6:30Speaker 2: the region. He's second in command. Also was a former
- 6:35Speaker 2: ambassador to Mexico, and when he was a young guy,
- 6:39Speaker 2: he was the son of the ambassador, the US ambassador
- 6:41Speaker 2: in Chile, in Venezuela and Paraguay. So he's also a
- 6:44Speaker 2: guy that knows perfectly well what's happening in the region.
- 6:47Speaker 2: So for the first time you have a team inside
- 6:52Speaker 2: the White House that really knows Latin America and knows
- 6:56Speaker 2: the process, the minuses who is who and so why
- 7:01Speaker 2: would to say that the US will try to enhance
- 7:06Speaker 2: its relationship with Latin America, especially its economic relationship. Well,
- 7:11Speaker 2: the US has already signed retrade agreements with several Latin
- 7:15Speaker 2: American countries. The first one was the Chillian one, but
- 7:18Speaker 2: not the only one now, So I would say that
- 7:21Speaker 2: the US, probably if it wants to retreat from the
- 7:26Speaker 2: rest of the world, needs in a way Latin America needs.
- 7:30Speaker 2: Latin America's markets, needs its Latin America's demography needs Latin
- 7:35Speaker 2: America's commodities. This could be the beginning of interesting times
- 7:39Speaker 2: for Latin America. I agree with that.
- 7:41Speaker 1: And it also one more thing you didn't mention in
- 7:43Speaker 1: that list was Latin America's high end manufacturing abilities. So Mexico,
- 7:47Speaker 1: for example, is turning itself into a high end manufacturing hub.
- 7:51Speaker 2: Or we talk about.
- 7:53Speaker 1: Friend sharing and close shoring, and Mexico is the obvious
- 7:56Speaker 1: home for that kind of maney for sure.
- 7:58Speaker 2: And actually one of the interesting things about that in
- 8:01Speaker 2: America is that in a way you have had thirty
- 8:03Speaker 2: years of economic reform. Really the microeconomic reforms began in
- 8:07Speaker 2: Chile in the seventies, eighties and nineties with what they
- 8:11Speaker 2: called the Chicago Boys. You know, it was a free
- 8:13Speaker 2: market reform, the regulation, privatization, opening up the economy. Many
- 8:19Speaker 2: other lat the American countries copied Chile was the case
- 8:22Speaker 2: of Peru, partially Colombia in a way partially Mexico too,
- 8:27Speaker 2: because of the success, Chile became a laggard in the
- 8:30Speaker 2: region in the seventies and became one of the wealthiest
- 8:34Speaker 2: countries in the region in the late nineties and during
- 8:37Speaker 2: the first decades of this century. So countries followed that path,
- 8:44Speaker 2: and even the two giants the region, you know, Mexico
- 8:48Speaker 2: and Brazil, have reformed a lot of their institutions, especially
- 8:52Speaker 2: macro institutions, so they have now central banks which are
- 8:56Speaker 2: quite independent. In the case of Brazil, you don't have
- 9:00Speaker 2: hyperinflation anymore. In the case of Mexico neither. The last
- 9:04Speaker 2: country probably to have hyperinflation was Argentina, and it seems
- 9:07Speaker 2: that with President Milay they are away controlling the beasts,
- 9:11Speaker 2: the fiscal beasts and the hyperinflation beasts. So in a
- 9:15Speaker 2: way for the US it makes a lot of sense
- 9:19Speaker 2: to integrate more with this region. But this, as you mentioned,
- 9:23Speaker 2: part of this reform is that some countries, especially Mexico
- 9:27Speaker 2: and Brazil, have now very high end manufacturing activity. But
- 9:32Speaker 2: you have the carry industry of course in Mexico, but
- 9:36Speaker 2: for instance, in Brazil you have a company like Embraer
- 9:38Speaker 2: which produces airplanes, and they produce commercial airplanes that are
- 9:42Speaker 2: gaining market sail all over the world, and they actually
- 9:45Speaker 2: they are benefiting from the problems from Boyling and partially Airbostole.
- 9:51Speaker 2: Now they are selling actually a military transport airplane to
- 9:55Speaker 2: NATO countries Embryer. So really you have very interesting industrial
- 10:01Speaker 2: companies in the region.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Yeah, then you have one thing that we haven't mentioned
- 10:04Speaker 1: yet is a slightly lower level of debt risk than
- 10:07Speaker 1: you might have and some what we consider to be
- 10:09Speaker 1: very developed countries. So debt to GDP ratios across Latin
- 10:12Speaker 1: America are slightly lower than elsewhere. And I think is
- 10:15Speaker 1: it highest in Brazil. The high in Brazil eighty percent,
- 10:18Speaker 1: but others are below that. When you think that, you know,
- 10:21Speaker 1: UK is one hundred and other western countries are well
- 10:24Speaker 1: over that. That's slightly reasering too.
- 10:26Speaker 2: Yeah, Chile has around forty percent, Mexico is fifty percent,
- 10:30Speaker 2: Columbia sixty percent, Rules thirty five percent of GDP. So really,
- 10:35Speaker 2: it's true that one of the main reforms that Latin
- 10:39Speaker 2: America has done in the last thirty years is was
- 10:41Speaker 2: called the macro reforms with these independent central banks thanks
- 10:45Speaker 2: to privatizations all over the place. Because we have had
- 10:49Speaker 2: privatizations from Mexico to the Cave Horn. And because of that,
- 10:54Speaker 2: now physcal deficits are more controlled because in the past,
- 10:58Speaker 2: part of the physical defic it's where due to financing
- 11:03Speaker 2: state owned companies, you know, and now many of those
- 11:06Speaker 2: companies have been privatized. They are very productive companies, or
- 11:09Speaker 2: they are partially privatized, and that's the case of companies
- 11:13Speaker 2: like Eco Patrol, the oil producing company in Colombia, or
- 11:16Speaker 2: Petro Bras in Brazil, you know, Brazil. Very few people
- 11:19Speaker 2: realize that Brazil is becoming an oil giant. Today. Brazil
- 11:24Speaker 2: is the largest oil producing country in Latin America. And
- 11:27Speaker 2: now not only Brazil is self sufficient in oil, which
- 11:31Speaker 2: was not the case forty years ago, but Brazil is
- 11:34Speaker 2: becoming a large exporter of oil. And it's partially done
- 11:39Speaker 2: by Petro Brass, but also by new private, mid sized
- 11:42Speaker 2: private companies in the oil industry. Some of those companies,
- 11:46Speaker 2: we invest in them and in their bonds and their inequities.
- 11:49Speaker 2: And it's very interesting what's happening in Brazil in the
- 11:52Speaker 2: oil field.
- 11:53Speaker 1: And this is really interesting because one of the criticisms
- 11:55Speaker 1: that has been made historically of Latin American economies is
- 11:58Speaker 1: that they have failed somehow to proper monetized their enormous
- 12:02Speaker 1: natural resources. So you know, so many Latin American countries
- 12:04Speaker 1: are so rich and everything from copper to oil, to lithium, etc.
- 12:08Speaker 1: But somehow it hasn't quite been monetized properly. So Brazil
- 12:11Speaker 1: and oil turns out to be a positive way forward
- 12:14Speaker 1: for that. And then of course as we move through
- 12:16Speaker 1: the energy transition, or we attempt to move through the
- 12:19Speaker 1: energy transition, and electricity demand goes up, then all these
- 12:22Speaker 1: other metals wearers, and Latin America is very rich and
- 12:25Speaker 1: weres become an extraordinary resource that with a stable economic background,
- 12:30Speaker 1: can be much better monetized than in the past.
- 12:33Speaker 2: Yeah, they're actually, to be honest, once again, the poster
- 12:37Speaker 2: child in the region in terms of monetization of mineral resources.
- 12:40Speaker 2: For Chile, Chili created a very pro market and pro
- 12:45Speaker 2: private property mining law in the late seventies early eighties
- 12:51Speaker 2: that produced a boom in exploration and then a boom
- 12:55Speaker 2: in copper production that allowed Chile to become the largest
- 12:58Speaker 2: copper producer in the world and Peruna is the second
- 13:01Speaker 2: largest copper producer in the world. Chile also produces a
- 13:05Speaker 2: lot of lithium.
- 13:06Speaker 1: As i'spayed some fastson there about let'sium mining and the
- 13:09Speaker 1: environmental problems.
- 13:10Speaker 2: Lithium in Chile is extracted from what they call the brines,
- 13:14Speaker 2: those are salt lakes in the desert. The same thing
- 13:18Speaker 2: will happen in Argentina actually, and probably impartially in Bolivia.
- 13:22Speaker 2: Bolivia is a country that probably has less monetized its
- 13:26Speaker 2: natural resources. But in the case of Argentina, once again,
- 13:29Speaker 2: what's happening there is very interesting because Argentina is beginning
- 13:32Speaker 2: to monetize it's lithium wealth, it's mineral wealth, but also
- 13:37Speaker 2: it's oil wealth. Argentina discovered a few years ago very
- 13:42Speaker 2: large shale oil and shale gas deposit called Vacamuerta, and
- 13:48Speaker 2: even the Kishners allowed the developer of that deposited because
- 13:53Speaker 2: they realized that Argentina couldn't afford not to develop it.
- 13:57Speaker 2: And Argentina also is very very rapidly becoming the second
- 14:01Speaker 2: largest gas and oil produced producing country in Latin America,
- 14:06Speaker 2: and probably in the next few years Vacamuerta deposit will
- 14:10Speaker 2: become a huge, huge exporter of gas for Argentina.
- 14:15Speaker 1: Interesting. So we have this region with this stableish economic environment,
- 14:19Speaker 1: stable age, political environment, high end manufacturing, rising middle class,
- 14:24Speaker 1: massive resource potential. So it kind of sounds perfect and
- 14:29Speaker 1: you can get it across the board on a valuation
- 14:32Speaker 1: significantly lower than as family average pe across Latin America
- 14:35Speaker 1: or something like nine times.
- 14:36Speaker 2: Right, we have risks, We have political risks. There is
- 14:39Speaker 2: still a left wing in American sector. Actually, we just
- 14:44Speaker 2: had primaries for the left in Chile and it was
- 14:48Speaker 2: the Communist party Candya that won the primaries with very
- 14:53Speaker 2: low participation of people, et cetera, et cetera, but it
- 14:55Speaker 2: was the Communist party that one. So you say, well,
- 14:58Speaker 2: there is a risk, but the risk in a way
- 15:02Speaker 2: is embedded invaluation, because we are talking that among emerging markets,
- 15:07Speaker 2: Latin America is trading probably one or one half standard
- 15:11Speaker 2: deviation below the average of the last twenty five years
- 15:15Speaker 2: compared to emerging markets, which themselves are trading at the
- 15:19Speaker 2: very low multiples compared to developed especially in the US.
- 15:24Speaker 2: So really a lot of bad news are embedded in
- 15:28Speaker 2: Latin American asset prices, equity prices, but also you know
- 15:34Speaker 2: interest rates. For instance, there is another asset class which
- 15:39Speaker 2: is very less well known, is latinm corporate credit. In
- 15:46Speaker 2: heart currency. You know, we manage a fund that invests
- 15:50Speaker 2: in Latin art currency bonds. So those are bonds issued
- 15:55Speaker 2: by the blue chips all over the region that issue
- 15:58Speaker 2: bonds offshore using you do it in dollars, and those
- 16:02Speaker 2: are bonds which have a current deal of around eight
- 16:04Speaker 2: percent dollar dominated. And I always say that you have
- 16:07Speaker 2: their sort of a restrating arbitrash because these are cambris
- 16:11Speaker 2: which if they had their headquarters in Miami, they would
- 16:15Speaker 2: be classified as an investment grade. But since they have
- 16:19Speaker 2: their headquarters in South Paolo or in something or Bogota,
- 16:25Speaker 2: they are high yield. Yes, you have a lot of
- 16:28Speaker 2: assets which are very interesting training at low multiples or
- 16:32Speaker 2: high yields. So with a lot of add news and
- 16:36Speaker 2: budded enter prices and with a you, I would say
- 16:39Speaker 2: good stories, you know, good company stories, good macro stories.
- 16:43Speaker 2: Probably people have a lot of investors don't realize the
- 16:47Speaker 2: interesting things that that happen year.
- 16:50Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about how you invested and
- 16:52Speaker 1: where you invest at my fun fact of the day
- 16:54Speaker 1: that someone told me this morning, as it only takes
- 16:56Speaker 1: an hour longer to fly from London to South Paler
- 16:59Speaker 1: than from Power to Mexico City, so you know you
- 17:02Speaker 1: are covering an insanely large area when it comes to
- 17:06Speaker 1: looking at companies, and your website tells me that the
- 17:10Speaker 1: company that you fund managers are visiting two hundred companies
- 17:13Speaker 1: a year, so you must be spending most of your
- 17:15Speaker 1: life on an aeroplane, are you? How are you choosing
- 17:17Speaker 1: companies to invest in?
- 17:19Speaker 2: Yeah, we use several techniques, O say. First, of course,
- 17:23Speaker 2: we try to know very deeply the region, so we
- 17:26Speaker 2: travel a lot. We have a lot of also a
- 17:29Speaker 2: network of friends, i would say now at the end
- 17:32Speaker 2: of the days, all over the regions. So we have
- 17:34Speaker 2: been vesting in the region for the last forty fifty years.
- 17:39Speaker 2: Lambia my company has ninety years history, so we have
- 17:42Speaker 2: been helping Chileans invest in the region for many, many years.
- 17:47Speaker 2: Of course, we have the advantage of the language, so
- 17:49Speaker 2: even if it's a very huge market in terms of
- 17:52Speaker 2: hours over the plane, we most of us speak Spanish
- 17:58Speaker 2: or Portuguese or port tool which is sort of a
- 18:01Speaker 2: blend between the Brazilian Portuguese and our Spanish, so we
- 18:06Speaker 2: we tend to understand ourselves, so we have a sort
- 18:10Speaker 2: of a common culture, even if it's the mex Mexicans
- 18:12Speaker 2: are very different from Chileans, and Chili's are very different
- 18:15Speaker 2: from Peruvians and Colombians, but we have the same language.
- 18:18Speaker 2: Then of course we use a very sophisticated i would
- 18:22Speaker 2: say quant model to get new ideas and control risk.
- 18:27Speaker 2: And so with the quant model, we see what are
- 18:29Speaker 2: the i would say most interesting companies all over the region,
- 18:33Speaker 2: and then we travel. You know, we have our analysts
- 18:36Speaker 2: are located mostly in Santiago. We have some analysts in Lima,
- 18:40Speaker 2: some analysts now in Argentina too, but we travel a
- 18:43Speaker 2: lot and also a lot of Latin American companies come
- 18:47Speaker 2: to Santiago. Santiago has become sort of a pension pub
- 18:52Speaker 2: you know, Chile has around three hundred and fifty billion
- 18:57Speaker 2: dollars in pension funds undermanaged.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Recently been some significant reforms to depends and system in
- 19:03Speaker 1: Chile right which means that there should be going forward
- 19:06Speaker 1: significantly higher flows into the actual market.
- 19:09Speaker 2: And in Mexico. That's another interesting thing that has happened
- 19:12Speaker 2: in the last I would say thirty years, is that
- 19:15Speaker 2: for the first time in latinin history, you have local
- 19:20Speaker 2: investors in local currency which are investing for the long term.
- 19:26Speaker 2: For instance, in the past, when a Latin blue chip
- 19:30Speaker 2: needed money, they needed to issue in dollars, because it
- 19:35Speaker 2: didn't they couldn't issue bonds locally. Now in many of
- 19:39Speaker 2: our markets, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Brazil, you have an internal,
- 19:46Speaker 2: wide developed bond market in local currency, which is the
- 19:50Speaker 2: biggest investors are institutional investors, and that has helped a
- 19:55Speaker 2: lot in terms of reducing the risk, the macroeconomic risk,
- 20:00Speaker 2: because the typical microeconomic risk that Lat'm facing the past
- 20:04Speaker 2: is that suddenly you have commodities coming down to price
- 20:08Speaker 2: and so the effects you know, the currency is devalued,
- 20:12Speaker 2: but you also had a lot of external debt government
- 20:17Speaker 2: and also corporations. Now you still have volatility in the
- 20:21Speaker 2: prices of commodities. That's normal. Part of the death of
- 20:25Speaker 2: local corporates, of local banks and local government is issued
- 20:30Speaker 2: in local currency, which.
- 20:31Speaker 1: Must have been helpful for Mexico and Brazil last year
- 20:34Speaker 1: because both so that currency is weakened substantially.
- 20:37Speaker 2: That's right, that's right, And in the case of Chile
- 20:39Speaker 2: to Perutu, today I would say the cost of capital
- 20:43Speaker 2: of many of local corporates is lower than in the past.
- 20:48Speaker 2: If you consider that now they do not need to
- 20:51Speaker 2: hedge their external debt because they are issuing bonds in
- 20:56Speaker 2: the local markets and that's helping a lot.
- 21:00Speaker 1: Quite not about Argentina, but can you imagine any of
- 21:03Speaker 1: your funds investing in Argentina because they don't at the moment,
- 21:06Speaker 1: you don't hold Argentina and equity.
- 21:08Speaker 2: Well, we know, we invest, especially in Latin Argentina's bonds,
- 21:13Speaker 2: corporate bonds, and those are dollar denominated corporate bonds. So
- 21:18Speaker 2: we have core bonds of companies like YPF, you know,
- 21:22Speaker 2: the oil producer in Argentina, the one that is producing
- 21:24Speaker 2: the oil in Baca Guerta, or another oil producing companies
- 21:28Speaker 2: like Pampa or Vista. Lately, we are beginning, especially since
- 21:33Speaker 2: we realize that the Milai reforms are going on track.
- 21:36Speaker 2: They're working, they're working. We are beginning very slowly to
- 21:41Speaker 2: invest in some equities. Additionally, what happens is that you
- 21:45Speaker 2: have some Latin American companies, especially the Chilian ones, that
- 21:50Speaker 2: have Argentina and assets which until now they were valued
- 21:55Speaker 2: at zero. So you have a company in Chile called Senkosuits,
- 22:00Speaker 2: one of the largest retailers in Latin America. They are
- 22:03Speaker 2: in supermarket, hypermarket department stores, do it yourself stores, and
- 22:09Speaker 2: they are one of the leading companies in all those
- 22:12Speaker 2: fields in Chile, in Peru, in Colombia. They even have
- 22:16Speaker 2: a high end supermarket in the States. But probably in
- 22:20Speaker 2: the mid nineties, one of the largest assets of sen
- 22:24Speaker 2: Cosut was Argentina and they still have it. They still
- 22:28Speaker 2: have it. The problem is that in the last twenty
- 22:31Speaker 2: years investors have said, Okay, we're going to value those
- 22:35Speaker 2: assets in Argentina zero. We don't count on them now
- 22:40Speaker 2: that Argentina is going up. These guys have a huge
- 22:44Speaker 2: supermarket hypermarket business in Argentina, they have a do it
- 22:47Speaker 2: yourself retail stores in Argentina, they have males in Argentina,
- 22:52Speaker 2: and actually when you buy the Argentina ETF, you are
- 22:57Speaker 2: buying also sen Cosuit, for instance, the co Oak Butler
- 23:01Speaker 2: in Santiago, which also has a huge position in Argentina.
- 23:05Speaker 2: Once again, in the past everybody said, okay, let's consider
- 23:09Speaker 2: those Argentina and assets as valueless. You know, they're worthless,
- 23:14Speaker 2: so we're not going to value and both the Yao
- 23:17Speaker 2: and Dina that's the name of the company, which also
- 23:19Speaker 2: has bottling operations in Brazil and in Paraguay. But now
- 23:24Speaker 2: suddenly the boatling operations in Argentina are beginning to be valued,
- 23:29Speaker 2: so you.
- 23:29Speaker 1: Can get access to the Argentinian market without having to
- 23:32Speaker 1: buy an equations in Argentina.
- 23:34Speaker 2: Sorry, you have a company like Medcaalo Liver. Mercalo Liver
- 23:38Speaker 2: is the largest e commerce company in Latin America. Actually
- 23:41Speaker 2: it was founded by Argentinians, which shows Argentinians have an
- 23:46Speaker 2: incredible human capital resource. All over Wall Street is full
- 23:51Speaker 2: of Argentinians. You know. Merkelo Liver was founded by our
- 23:54Speaker 2: Argentina entrepreneurs. It's located in the US, so that it's
- 23:58Speaker 2: incorporated in the US under US law. But now it's
- 24:01Speaker 2: the largest e commerce company all over the region in
- 24:04Speaker 2: Latin America, and it has huge operations in Argentina. Once again,
- 24:08Speaker 2: if Argentina begins to go up to grow to consume market,
- 24:14Speaker 2: delivery will enjoy a lot. What will happen in Argentina.
- 24:18Speaker 1: Do you have a favorite market among the other main
- 24:20Speaker 1: markets in Latin America. You live in Chile.
- 24:23Speaker 2: One of the advantages of living in Chile is that
- 24:26Speaker 2: we do not have Brazilian home bias or the Mexican
- 24:29Speaker 2: home bias. But since we're the smallest country of all
- 24:33Speaker 2: of the large ones in Latin America. We have to
- 24:35Speaker 2: invest in Brazil, we have to invest in Argentina, we
- 24:38Speaker 2: have to invest in Mexico. And in a way more
- 24:42Speaker 2: than being a lot of a country in itself or
- 24:45Speaker 2: a market, we try to fall in love with companies
- 24:49Speaker 2: and we find incredible companies in Mexico, in Brazil, now
- 24:55Speaker 2: in Argentina, to in Peru, you have very good companies.
- 24:58Speaker 2: The market is smaller in prou less liquid, but you
- 25:01Speaker 2: have an incredible bank like the Creditor Peru, which is
- 25:05Speaker 2: a very very well run bank. You have good stories,
- 25:08Speaker 2: you know, in the retail sector in Peru. You have
- 25:10Speaker 2: good banks in Colombia too. We are a very bottom
- 25:13Speaker 2: uped house. We do a lot of research. We try
- 25:16Speaker 2: to really meet all the companies with the senior management.
- 25:20Speaker 2: We build very sophisticated I would say evaluation models. So
- 25:24Speaker 2: in a way we try to fall in love companies.
- 25:26Speaker 1: Everyone hates it when I asked this question. Everyone hates
- 25:29Speaker 1: to have to peck one. But if you're falling in
- 25:30Speaker 1: love with a company, what are you most in love
- 25:33Speaker 1: with at the moment?
- 25:34Speaker 2: We like very much mercaal Oliberty. You know, this e
- 25:36Speaker 2: commerce giant in Latin America. We like their growth, We
- 25:40Speaker 2: like what they're doing in the fintech area. We like
- 25:44Speaker 2: also Empire, you know, the industrial giant in Brazil which
- 25:47Speaker 2: builds very good quality planes. Also is in the defense area.
- 25:51Speaker 2: But we like also commodity producing companies like Petro Brass.
- 25:55Speaker 2: You know, Petro Brass has an incredible dividend yield, it growing.
- 25:59Speaker 2: You know what is the yield the tough one today
- 26:02Speaker 2: Paturize is probably yielding between eight and nine percent per year. Lovely,
- 26:07Speaker 2: our portfolio is yielding around six percent, so you have
- 26:10Speaker 2: yield in Latin American you know, a divon yield. There
- 26:13Speaker 2: is a bunch of companies that yield more than ten percent. Now,
- 26:16Speaker 2: our portfolio have a mix of high devn yielders and
- 26:20Speaker 2: also high growth like Mercaaloibri would be a high growth company.
- 26:26Speaker 2: Also a very interesting internet bank called new Bank. New
- 26:29Speaker 2: Bank now is a huge bank in Brazil. It's entering
- 26:32Speaker 2: the Mexican market. It's entering also the Argentinian market. So
- 26:37Speaker 2: you have also technological companies in the region. You have
- 26:39Speaker 2: a company called Totus in Brazil which is an ERP
- 26:42Speaker 2: you know, enterprise reserve, especially for mid sized companies. You
- 26:49Speaker 2: have very good quality industrial companies. You know, we have
- 26:53Speaker 2: two funds. You know, we have a large LUGP fund,
- 26:57Speaker 2: but also we have a small meatcap and ditricity. With
- 27:00Speaker 2: a small meatcap fund is that you have less less commodities,
- 27:04Speaker 2: less banks, and more industrial companies, more healthcare. You have
- 27:09Speaker 2: a very interesting companies in the healthcare. So really with
- 27:12Speaker 2: so strange, Yeah, we have most of the sectors present
- 27:16Speaker 2: in the index.
- 27:17Speaker 1: Brilliant. Well, I think you probably convinced everybody that's to
- 27:21Speaker 1: do it. You mentioned the book earlier, the closing of
- 27:25Speaker 1: the American Mind. Are you a agree? What are you
- 27:27Speaker 1: reading at the moment?
- 27:28Speaker 2: Oh? Well, I am reading a book about Bob Francis,
- 27:31Speaker 2: which was written by Javier Circa with a very famous
- 27:34Speaker 2: Spanish author.
- 27:36Speaker 1: Turns great, we'll put that on everyone summer reading less.
- 27:39Speaker 1: Thank you very very much, indeed, we really appreciate you
- 27:41Speaker 1: coming on.
- 27:42Speaker 2: Thankre Maturin, and I hope I convinced someone to get
- 27:45Speaker 2: a view in the region.
- 27:53Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week Marin Jog's Money. If
- 27:55Speaker 1: you like us a rate review and subscribe by every
- 27:57Speaker 1: listening to podcast and keep sending questions or comments Marimani
- 28:00Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot net. You can also follow me and
- 28:02Speaker 1: John on Twitter or x. I'm at marianeess w and
- 28:05Speaker 1: John is John Underscores Epect. This episode was hosted by
- 28:08Speaker 1: me Marin Suset Web, produced by Samasadi and special thanks,
- 28:12Speaker 1: of course to host it.