Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 165: Frost Dates, Rainfall and Weather You Need to Know with Gary Lezak

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165: Frost Dates, Rainfall and Weather You Need to Know with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
Today we are welcoming back Gary Lezak onto the podcast to give
0:04
you guys your Monday weather report.
0:07
Welcome back to the Cattle USA podcast everyone.
0:10
We are once again talking weather on this wonderful
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Monday. I hope you all are having Gary.
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Today breaks down everything that's happening in the weather
0:22
in the world right now. We are touching on the Super
0:25
exciting thing that the LRC is setting up right now.
0:27
What does that mean? What's happening?
0:29
What can we we expect over the next few months?
0:31
We talk frost, we talk freeze dates, we talk hurricane season.
0:35
We touch on all of it today. So before we hop into the
0:39
podcast with Gary, though, you guys could take a second to like
0:41
subscribe, rate and review this podcast.
0:43
We would really appreciate it here at the team.
0:45
And without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this
0:48
podcast episode with Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
0:55
podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
0:59
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
1:01
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
1:04
passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
1:06
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:10
episode. Gary, welcome back to the
1:19
podcast. Thank you.
1:22
No. Good morning.
1:23
I was expecting, I was expecting you to like do a bigger intro.
1:27
I was looking for my I'm about to clean my glasses but good
1:34
morning. I got to keep you on your toes.
1:37
You never know if I'm going to sit here and talk for like 3
1:40
minutes and then let you talk or if I'm going to sit here and be
1:43
like, morning Gary, how are you? I'm like one minute behind
1:46
today. Today everything is so far been
1:48
one minute behind, which might be OK.
1:50
It's only one minute, but that one minute might be important.
1:53
It's OK if you know you're one minute behind.
1:56
We'll be OK because I think I just cut up.
1:58
I think I'm there now. Perfect, perfect.
2:01
Well, we'll get you out of here one minute early and catch you
2:03
up. OK, there you go.
2:05
Well, how's life in Colorado, Gary?
2:06
How's. Everything's been We just had an
2:08
inch of rain here in Golden, 1.28 inches of rain in Denver,
2:12
rain off on the eastern plains in western Nebraska, western
2:17
Kansas. This storm moves slowly across
2:19
Kansas City. One to two inches of rain there
2:21
and it's been too wet in the fields in some areas.
2:25
I, I put out our weather Intelligence Report yesterday
2:29
and you can get that on the screen.
2:31
You know, Lauren, I'll show you exactly how to get these
2:34
products, but it's the weather 2020 Intelligence Report and
2:37
it's going to be a very exciting time to join because we are
2:41
going to take you through the developing new LRC.
2:44
What happens with the LRC is every year the weather pattern
2:47
sets up around October 5th, 6th or 7th is when it begins.
2:52
And so we're almost there. And then that'll be a day one of
2:56
the pattern. Try to keep it simplified.
2:59
Just know that a unique pattern sets up every single fall.
3:03
So we are about to experience a pattern that has never happened
3:07
before and it's starting to evolve now.
3:11
And so that's something that I'll take you through in our
3:13
reports and it is very exciting. And on this podcast, Lauren, it
3:20
has been way too wet in a few spots.
3:23
So here we are going into harvest, South Dakota, North
3:26
Dakota, most of Nebraska and much of Kansas into northeast
3:32
Colorado and eastern Wyoming. This region has had a lot of
3:37
rain in the last 10 days. So it's, it's not like a flood,
3:42
but it's the fields have gotten wet and this is not good to the
3:45
start of harvest. If that were to continue, then
3:49
I'd be a big concern. But this pattern that we've been
3:52
in the past year, every single time it seems like it's going to
3:55
get too wet or too dry, it will stop raining or it will start
3:59
raining. That's what this pattern has
4:01
been. I, I would love to have every
4:03
pattern to be that way. But right now, South Dakota,
4:06
North Dakota and Nebraska into western Kansas, some of the
4:10
fields have been too wet. But good news, they're likely
4:13
getting to dry out. And how wet has it been?
4:16
Let me just tell you this. And like Nebraska for example,
4:20
some spots have had 1100% of average rainfall.
4:26
So around from Grand Island West to North Platte, NE, that whole
4:32
area has had that's 10 to 11 times the normal rainfall just
4:37
over a 10 day stretch. It's not like that would be a
4:39
major flood if that happened over a whole month, but
4:42
fortunately it will be drying out there.
4:44
But just know that's what I'm working on Lauren right now.
4:47
Pretty interesting such an. Exciting time around here.
4:51
I love it. And we are part of that.
4:55
That has gotten absolutely dumped on in the last 10 days.
4:58
It is raining here again today, which I mean it's a double edged
5:02
sword because it's like our farmers need to get in the
5:05
fields. They need to get in and harvest
5:06
all of those things. But then our ranchers are like,
5:09
bring it on. We need, we need all the late
5:12
summer rain that we can get for all of our winter crops and
5:14
everything like that is for all of our like winter grass so that
5:18
it can continue to grow. So it's like if we could just
5:22
bank it for the next three weeks and then we get rain, that would
5:26
be awesome and go from there. But we've been talking about
5:29
this for a few weeks now, saying like, hey guys, end of
5:32
September's coming around and it's going to start dumping rain
5:34
for a little. While, well there you go,
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there's an LRC forecast. Anybody out there who's
5:39
experienced that, we'd love to hear from you so we can get some
5:41
testimonials because a few of you probably realize we have
5:45
been predicting this. We predicted if we get wet at
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the end of September and it did. So producers, Agri businesses,
5:52
hopefully you prepare for some of these harvest problems.
5:56
So some grain handling challenges out there, I guess
5:59
that's what we could call it. But So what are pockets there
6:02
for sure for winter wheat, like you just said, Lauren, that's
6:05
the silver lining. There's a silver lining here is
6:08
that there's moisture that's out there that supports winter wheat
6:12
germination. So these areas that were drier
6:15
earlier got a lot of rain just recently.
6:17
So that's really good for the winter wheat.
6:19
So as you said, there's it's a double edged swords.
6:22
There's there's some good and some bad, but no ugly.
6:25
This has been good, a good season.
6:26
Yeah, absolutely. I'm sending up all the prayers
6:28
right now that this next cycle is going to be the exact same as
6:31
this one as far as like we think it's going to get too dry and
6:33
then it corrects. We think it's going to get too
6:35
wet and then it corrects. I'm I'm praying that the next
6:40
cycle as it develops brings us the same thing, which I mean,
6:43
the probability is probably not super high that it's going to,
6:46
but a girl can dream. It's it's it's going to be a
6:52
completely different pattern. That's that's what's so amazing
6:56
Lauren is that a pattern that has never ever happened before
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is setting up right now. It probably it is very, very
7:04
earliest stages. I can show you how this storm
7:07
that we just had that's exiting the area in the next day and
7:12
returning to drier weather, I can show you a version of it in
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the other cycles of this year's pattern.
7:18
And so it's right on schedule, which means that new for next
7:23
year has not happened yet. So a mistake most meteorologists
7:28
around the nation and other weather companies that you may
7:30
use, I do not recommend any other weather company.
7:33
So for this reason, they don't use the centerpiece of the
7:37
biggest of the big atmospheric jigsaw that we do.
7:40
The LRC is literally a big centerpiece of the whole puzzle.
7:45
And so when they come out with their winter forecast, here's
7:48
the outlook for December, for January, for February, for
7:50
March, for spring, here's the forecast right now.
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And they already have one out there.
7:56
They left the centerpiece of the big equation out.
7:59
So how can that possibly be right?
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And there's where the image of meteorologist comes in.
8:04
They will be wrong. Those forecasts, I can already
8:07
tell you, you know a very good chance they will be wrong.
8:10
Anything you've heard so far? So we will have our take and
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right here we'll talk about what we begin to know in about two
8:19
weeks, because it doesn't start till about October 5th, 6th or
8:22
7th. So that week and the week after,
8:26
we begin to learn what's going to happen.
8:30
And by December we will provide that forecast.
8:35
That's why you want to become premium members of the Weather
8:39
Intelligence Report and then get that dashboard, which we'll talk
8:42
about later, because by December, it helps you prepare
8:46
for which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be dry
8:50
accurately. And it's the only system in the
8:52
world that can do such a thing. So, so fascinating, so cool, and
8:56
such a fun time to be able to break all of this down and talk
9:00
about it and what we can expect over the next few weeks because
9:05
holy cow, October is knocking. It is right around the corner.
9:09
I am not ready for it. I can't believe that we're
9:12
already almost at the end of September.
9:14
I've been looking at my schedule and granted, I was out for the
9:17
first week and a half of September, but still, Oh my
9:21
gosh, I can't believe we're already here.
9:23
I can't believe that we're already setting up a new cycle
9:25
and breaking all of that down and all the things so exciting.
9:30
Yeah, no doubt about it. And so, but you know, even the
9:34
LRC model that we have as we break it down, let's let's talk
9:38
about frost and freezes. We're going to move into
9:43
October. The average first freeze for
9:46
like eastern Kansas is around the first week of November and
9:52
the average for western Kansas is probably the second week of
9:55
October. So our model right now shows for
10:00
the Northern Plains, this includes North Dakota, South
10:03
Dakota, and Minnesota. There's a frost around October
10:07
to the 8th and then a freeze around October.
10:10
The that's what our model shows. But remember, the pattern's
10:13
changing. So it could happen a week
10:15
earlier or it could be a couple weeks later, but that's what the
10:18
the model shows right now. And farther SI went down into
10:23
Nebraska and Kansas and the frost the frost potential is
10:29
around October 25th. There's likely somewhere in that
10:33
range going to be a frost and possibly that freezer on October
10:36
27th, 28th for Nebraska, Iowa average together.
10:40
So farther N maybe a little earlier that, but that's what
10:43
the model shows now. And so we'll just just want to
10:45
keep you updated on that. But that's coming.
10:48
The first frost are freeze, but here in Colorado, where it just
10:51
rained over an inch of rain, everything is still brown from
10:54
August being so dry. I think everything's going to
10:57
green up. It's going to be a pretty
10:58
weekend. I think it's going to be fun to
10:59
watch it turn greener. If I did a three daytime lapse,
11:02
that'd be fun, but I don't have any way to do the three daytime
11:05
lapse. I'd love to do it though.
11:06
I'll take a picture of each day and then show a fade from one
11:09
picture to the next. Your cowboy boots tell your
11:12
story before you ever speak. Every scuff, every crease is a
11:16
memory. At Cheezo's, we make each pair
11:20
like it's the only one that matters, because to the man who
11:23
wears them, it is cowboy boots made to be worn for years and
11:29
worth passing down. Find yours@cheezos.com.
11:33
That's Ch isos.com. Cheezos do right?
11:38
Love Texas? There you go.
11:41
You don't want to lose your phone for three days in a row,
11:43
setting it up in a window and not be able to do anything with
11:45
it. If you try to get a hold of me
11:47
on lots of days and clouds here are casting, I'll set up my time
11:51
lapse and I'll push. I finally started pushing Do not
11:54
disturb because when somebody calls, it ruins the time lapse.
11:58
So for hours on end, people cannot call me because I'm doing
12:01
a time lapse of clouds. I love clouds.
12:04
Clouds are the basics of meteorology.
12:08
And so if you learn clouds and farmers and ranchers and all you
12:13
guys out there, you are probably experts.
12:16
If you're, if you're on the field a lot of time, do you see
12:18
the clouds? You experience the clouds.
12:19
You probably just subtly understand the clouds so well
12:23
because of that. And so you're good weather
12:25
predictors just based on looking at the sky because rule number
12:28
one in forecasting is always look up because you never know,
12:31
Always look outside because you never know.
12:32
Clouds are the basics. And so when I was a little kid,
12:36
I got a cloud book when I was like 7 years old.
12:38
And you know, I, I'm not a big reader.
12:41
I do, I've read some lots of weather books.
12:43
So I got my degree in meteorology.
12:45
So I had to read something, but I like to look at pictures.
12:49
So clouds are the cloud books are great because there's lots
12:51
of pictures, but there are three cloud types.
12:55
There are. Did you know that there are
12:56
three cloud types? Three main cloud types I.
12:58
Did I remember that from like, I think 8th grade science is when
13:01
we learned that or something like that, or even probably
13:04
younger than that, I don't know, but yes, there are.
13:07
That's a whole I don't know. If I could name them.
13:09
So there, but there they are. Stratus is the low cloud layer.
13:14
Then you have the middle cloud layers, the cumulus cloud group,
13:19
and then you have cirrus is the high cloud group.
13:22
Cirrus are the wispy ones made-up of ice crystals usually
13:26
about 20,000 feet above you. So then you have different you
13:31
can do different things you can do with cirrus.
13:34
Stratus means spread out, and cereal stratus would be a cirrus
13:39
cloud that's spread out. Stratus itself is a low cloud.
13:43
Fog is stratus. So when it's foggy, that's a
13:48
stratus cloud. And then when the clouds build
13:51
up and start growing, those are cumulus clouds.
13:54
And so, yeah, and then you can have the different, you know,
13:57
prefixes and post fixes. I don't know what you call
14:00
those. I know it's prefix.
14:03
Anyway, you have Alto cumulus that's actually a middle cloud
14:08
layer. Alto means high, but it's not as
14:11
high as cirrus. So Alto cumulus, Alto stratus.
14:15
And then you have stratocumulus when those two terms that's
14:19
instead of fog, it's now higher up and it it's it's got some
14:23
definition in them. So stratocumulus clouds.
14:26
And then you have nimbo stratus. Nimbus means rain, and Nimbo
14:32
stratus is a kind of cloud we had when it's not thundering.
14:36
It's usually a nimbo stratus cloud that's raining.
14:38
And then the biggest cloud type is called cumulonimbus.
14:42
So that's where the Tornadoes and all the bad weather comes
14:44
from. Those are the thunderstorms, the
14:46
anvils on top of them. Anyway, just a little cloud
14:49
discussion. Cloud one O one that That's
14:53
today's podcast title. Clouds one O 1.
14:56
Lawrence Head is in the clouds. And in my book Sunny Life, I
15:00
have I have I showed you that book.
15:02
You have not, no. You've never seen it.
15:05
No. What should I go get one?
15:09
I see this book, there's a go get one.
15:11
I want to see it. Here, you're sunny.
15:16
Sunny. Hi girl.
15:19
You've not seen this? No, I haven't seen this.
15:23
In the book it's sunny. Life stop.
15:26
You didn't know this. No, that's.
15:30
So amazing. There I am.
15:34
Believe me, This version of me, it's a caricature.
15:37
But the ears were way too big and the nose was way too big.
15:42
So I had them redraw it because it was just ridiculous.
15:46
But. And then there's Sunny right
15:49
back here. Sunny, say hi.
15:51
Oh, look at that. Yeah.
15:53
Is that amazing? That's amazing.
15:56
That's amazing. It's about it's about how it's
16:00
about adoption and family and and going on an adventure.
16:05
But it because with meat, windy, breezy and stormy, they belong
16:09
to this weather guy who's talking on TV right now, but
16:12
getting a new dog and they they said, what, what's that all
16:15
about? So we go to the shelter.
16:18
I don't know if you can see her in in the window of the shelter.
16:20
There she is. We get there and and we go on an
16:24
adventure to bond. That's so cute.
16:26
That's amazing. I love that.
16:29
It's a really great story. And so it's available on Amazon.
16:33
So just go It's a sunny life, go search for that.
16:37
But in the book, this is for kids, but for kids of all ages,
16:43
there's what is precipitation types of storm systems.
16:48
And then it has a whole thing on clouds and it's got this cloud
16:53
chart with Sunny sitting there, can see that.
16:56
Yeah. And there it's so cool.
16:59
There's all the clouds, so and talks about the clouds and and
17:03
storms and it's really cool. It's the whole cloud chart for
17:07
kids of all ages. It's so fun.
17:09
How about that? Download it today.
17:11
You can download, you can download a version so you can
17:15
read it online, or you can get the book itself and just go to
17:20
Amazon. How wonderful that is.
17:22
So fun that learn a new fun fact every day.
17:25
Gary, how's the kids book? We'll have to add that to our
17:27
shelf for when we have kids eventually.
17:29
I love it. I'll send you something copy.
17:33
Even better, even better, be like, hey, this person right
17:37
here, pay attention. This, this book is going to be
17:39
worth something one of these days.
17:41
Don't you dare slobber all over it.
17:43
And if any of you today sign up for our our sub stack account
17:47
for the our weather Intelligence Report, you go into the comments
17:51
and say, Gary, I signed up today.
17:53
I think we have a big discount right now.
17:54
So you can go sign up for that and then I'll send you a signed
17:57
copy, but just you have to let me know.
17:59
There you go. There you go.
18:01
How wonderful. Oh, how amazing.
18:03
Well, Gary, is there anything else we need to head on, maybe
18:05
head on hurricane season as we're kind of starting to wrap
18:09
that up, Your thoughts there and if there's anything else we
18:12
missed? Well, we just had Gabrielle
18:14
became a major hurricane and let me call it the latest data real
18:18
quick. So I can be up to date real
18:19
quick. But Gabrielle is a major
18:23
hurricane that is it's down to 100, 15 mph right now.
18:30
It's a strong hurricane still in the central Atlantic.
18:32
There's another one forming with a 90% chance of it getting named
18:37
in the next couple of days in the central Atlantic.
18:40
We are right on cycle to Aaron. Remember, Hurricane Aaron was a
18:44
major hurricane. So that one is likely related to
18:48
Aaron. It's literally 41 days after
18:51
Aaron coming up here very soon. And so and then there's another
18:55
one forecast with let's see what the probability is the hurricane
19:00
Sanders saying 9080% chance. So we might get 2 named storms
19:05
very close to each other just off the East Coast and one of
19:09
them could threaten the Carolinas in about 3 or 4 days
19:13
real quickly. So I'm dealt with the next name
19:16
on the list. I should go look at my list real
19:19
quick, I believe is I don't want to call it Ron's.
19:23
Hold on a second. I'm going to tell you these
19:25
names and here we go. OK, the name, next name on the
19:29
list is Humberto. So Humberto probably 4.
19:33
You'll probably hear about Tropical Storm Humberto today or
19:36
tomorrow. And then Imelda is the next one.
19:40
And then the next two are normal names.
19:42
I don't know if Imelda or Humberto are normal names, but
19:45
I'm just saying the next two are Jerry and Karen.
19:49
So Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, and Karen.
19:53
It would be so cliche if Karen made landfall and was a Karen
19:59
type of storm. It'd be too cliche.
20:01
That's set up too well there. They really should have re
20:04
evaluated that name. I know Karen.
20:07
Will it be a Karen? That's the question.
20:10
We'll see if there's maybe four more named storms that would get
20:13
us up to about 11 for the year. Our forecast of 17 is going to
20:18
be way too high unless there's like 6 more at the end of
20:22
October, November, which has happened only once in history.
20:25
So usually there's only one more after October 20th.
20:29
So we're getting to the end. How exciting.
20:32
Well, is there anything else that we need to head on today,
20:34
Gary or we kind of touched all of it?
20:36
No, I thought we've touched it all, but I would like to have
20:38
the recipe for the sourdough and I still have yet to have it.
20:43
Yes, I need to. I need to just send you some in
20:45
the mail. Next time I make some I'm going
20:47
to FedEx overnight it to you and just send you some in the mail.
20:51
Just wrap it up. Send it unless they don't allow
20:54
you to send fresh food FedEx. They totally do.
20:58
They totally do. I don't know why they want.
21:00
It they don't let you send chewing tobacco.
21:02
Well, that makes sense because that's a controlled substance
21:05
like. OK.
21:08
Sense that they wouldn't let you.
21:09
Send I don't know A friend of mine needed chewing tobacco and
21:12
they wanted me to send it. I was like OOP, I'm going to get
21:15
in trouble if I go to the post office and try to send that.
21:18
It's just chewing tobacco. But you can't send it through
21:20
the the FedEx anyway. That's.
21:22
Interesting. That's interesting.
21:24
I was like, you can't send it period.
21:26
Or if you have to have like a permit I feel like.
21:29
You have a permit? No, No.
21:30
If you have a permit to sell, I think you can't.
21:33
Yeah, it's like the same thing. Like I don't think I can just
21:36
send my friend a bottle of wine like from my house.
21:39
Like I don't know if that's. Allowed.
21:40
Why can't you? Well, how do you, how do they
21:42
know that you're not sending it to someone that's underage or
21:45
something like that? I think that's the thought
21:49
process. That's interesting.
21:51
Yes, that would be it. You can't check the ID through
21:53
the mail. Yeah.
21:55
Yeah. So I think unless you're like a
21:56
registered distributor. Why you are smart.
21:59
I don't know if that's actually the case, that's just what makes
22:02
sense in my brain. Jeez.
22:05
Oh jeez. I love it.
22:07
I love it. Well, thank you so much as
22:10
always, Gary, for your time today.
22:12
To all of our listeners, everything that Gary and I
22:15
chatted about today is going to be linked down in the show notes
22:17
for you guys to check out. I'm also going to have the link
22:19
to that book as well. It's a sunny Life on Amazon down
22:24
below because all of your grandkids, all of your kids,
22:28
they all need it. Teach them about weather, teach
22:30
them about clouds in a fun way. How amazing.
22:34
I love it. I love it.
22:35
I love it. Well, Gary, thank you for your
22:37
time, all of your listeners. Check out those links down
22:39
below. I've got the sub stack, I've got
22:41
the book, I've got everything that you could possibly need
22:43
from Gary down in those show notes.
22:45
And we will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
22:49
Have a great day y'all.