Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Free Agency Update

Transcript

NFL Free Agency Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I'm
0:15
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We
0:20
Speaker 1: are all ready to the end of the March. It's
0:22
Speaker 1: been a wild month. We've got Academy Awards that we discussed,
0:25
Speaker 1: we talked March Madness. We sat down with NFL pro
0:30
Speaker 1: bowler fellow podcaster Chris Long. It's time to get back
0:36
Speaker 1: to business listeners and viewers. We're talking NFL free agency,
0:42
Speaker 1: We're talking looming NFL Draft, which is exactly one month away.
0:50
Speaker 1: How is all of this impacting, How our rankings in
0:54
Speaker 1: the league, How we're thinking about betting the league, whether
0:58
Speaker 1: it's Super Bowls or visions. I am joined as always
1:03
Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, my campadre, my BFF
1:06
Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter Eto. So I am in.
1:11
Speaker 2: Hello cha, Yeah, April right around the corner. It comes so.
1:14
Speaker 1: Fast, dude, you and the Super Bowl, and you're like,
1:22
Speaker 1: we got so long until the NFL season starts, and
1:26
Speaker 1: we are knocking on the door of the beginning of April.
1:30
Speaker 1: We have gone through an entire free agency cycle with
1:33
Speaker 1: just a few names on the board, and some of
1:37
Speaker 1: the moves have been crazy impactful, crazy different than we expected.
1:44
Speaker 1: A lot of the trades have been have gone in
1:47
Speaker 1: ways that we wouldn't have seen. We're going to talk
1:49
Speaker 1: about Justin Fields and the Bears, obviously as a reminder.
1:54
Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast is presented by North Carolina's new Twist
2:00
Speaker 1: sportsbook Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't
2:03
Speaker 1: do ordinary. That's why you get more boosts with them
2:06
Speaker 1: than with anyone else. Every day they power up the
2:10
Speaker 1: odds one hundreds of bests to give you a chance
2:12
Speaker 1: to win more. Bet three sixty five boost specific markets,
2:14
Speaker 1: your winnings and even parlays. And they don't stop there,
2:17
Speaker 1: keeping out for their biggest and best odds with the
2:19
Speaker 1: incredible super boosts. Check out the boots and see why
2:22
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be
2:25
Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
2:30
Speaker 1: and North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and
2:33
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
2:37
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Condition
2:39
Speaker 1: and restrictions apply if you're in North Carolina, take advantage
2:44
Speaker 1: of the best sign up offers at BET three sixty
2:45
Speaker 1: five and across every sports book. A link to all
2:49
Speaker 1: those offers can be found in this episode description. Check
2:54
Speaker 1: out that link in the episode description. As a reminder,
2:56
Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. If
3:00
Speaker 1: you are enjoying on YouTube right now, you have zero
3:03
Speaker 1: reason not to click the like button and subscribe to
3:08
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. All right, one thing to say, Simon,
3:13
Speaker 1: we do want to talk about this a little bit.
3:15
Speaker 1: We're going to go much deeper on the Shohei Otani
3:19
Speaker 1: story and the press conference he had yesterday. On Thursday.
3:26
Speaker 1: We also will have an author, Keith O'Brien, who is
3:28
Speaker 1: a New York Times best selling author, fellow New York
3:32
Speaker 1: Times best selling author who has a great new book
3:37
Speaker 1: about Pete Rose, a biography about Pete Rose. There is
3:40
Speaker 1: a story on the Action Network site today that Keith
3:43
Speaker 1: O'Brien wrote, pulling news from the book, that explains MLB
3:49
Speaker 1: was onto Pete Rose and his gambling habits and the
3:52
Speaker 1: concerns they had about his gambling habits eleven years before
3:58
Speaker 1: everything came to light about what he was doing to
4:01
Speaker 1: bet on Baseball. Keith is going to be on the
4:03
Speaker 1: show on Thursday, Simon. I know we want to take
4:07
Speaker 1: into this story so badly.
4:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm cool with waiting. Like you said, the
4:13
Speaker 2: more the more time we wait, the more information we get.
4:15
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm I'm good with it. Every day that's
4:18
Speaker 2: gone by, you get more information. And yeah, pretty shocking story.
4:22
Speaker 2: And I think you know my view on it. Where
4:26
Speaker 2: you know, my life in media is one life. In
4:29
Speaker 2: my life in sports betting, dealing with bookies and not
4:33
Speaker 2: the most you know, desirable people is just part of
4:37
Speaker 2: my job. And you know, I'm always hearing rumors, child
4:40
Speaker 2: Like I told you, I'm always hearing rumors and I
4:43
Speaker 2: don't believe it either, a lot of this stuff. And
4:47
Speaker 2: I will say with the Otani stuff, they are they
4:50
Speaker 2: didn't mess up at the beginning. Again, we'll talk more
4:52
Speaker 2: about it. They messed up the beginning. But I do
4:53
Speaker 2: think him playing it now that hit the dude's just
4:56
Speaker 2: big time liar. His uh, you know interpret there is
5:00
Speaker 2: a big time liar and that Otani just playing dumb
5:02
Speaker 2: and he had no idea what's going on. I'm with it,
5:05
Speaker 2: that's the move. If this interpreter is going to fall
5:06
Speaker 2: on the sword, play this card. This is the move
5:10
Speaker 2: because I don't think they did realize that they were
5:12
Speaker 2: indicting themselves right with the original away. They were going,
5:16
Speaker 2: so Otani's camp, you know, he's got a ton of money,
5:18
Speaker 2: he's got smart lawyers. The right people stepped in and
5:21
Speaker 2: they're correcting the thing. But just again, really quick, if
5:25
Speaker 2: you're naive enough to believe a bookie will take be
5:28
Speaker 2: cool with fronting someone five hundred k that is an interpreter,
5:34
Speaker 2: You're just lost, You're not you don't understand how this works.
5:37
Speaker 2: So that's all I'm gonna say on it. But yes,
5:40
Speaker 2: people in the media they are saying that, yes, that's
5:44
Speaker 2: what happened. Is it's all this interpreter. So that's what
5:47
Speaker 2: we have to go on. As we are sitting here
5:49
Speaker 2: in late March.
5:50
Speaker 1: Chad fronting five hundred k for an interpreter making three
5:54
Speaker 1: hundred grand a year.
5:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
5:59
Speaker 1: By the way, not just that, the fact that the
6:03
Speaker 1: wires move from Otani's account in September October. His people
6:10
Speaker 1: didn't see this, His financial advisors didn't see this. There
6:14
Speaker 1: was nobody tracking this that it might have been untoured.
6:19
Speaker 1: So we can listen to the press conference, we can
6:22
Speaker 1: hear what they're saying. We can you know, say all right,
6:26
Speaker 1: it took him twenty four to forty dollars, but they
6:28
Speaker 1: got their story straight. I will be very curious to
6:32
Speaker 1: see if the industrious journalistic community in sports continues to
6:38
Speaker 1: pursue this. I mean, ESPN Tisha Thompson has done an
6:41
Speaker 1: amazing job breaking this story. I will be very curious
6:45
Speaker 1: to see what the reacts is. And we'll have Keith
6:48
Speaker 1: O'Brien on Thursday to talk about Pete Rose and what
6:52
Speaker 1: he learned and you know, connections and lessons that can
6:55
Speaker 1: be made to the current situation because certainly, this guy,
7:00
Speaker 1: Keith O'Brien, who wrote this book Charlie Hustle, which is
7:02
Speaker 1: great out today, has insights into betting and baseball that
7:07
Speaker 1: most people don't have. There are three things we want
7:12
Speaker 1: to do today, Simon. We want to talk about the
7:14
Speaker 1: biggest NFL free agency and trade moves and how it's
7:18
Speaker 1: impact a very specific number of teams. We want to
7:21
Speaker 1: talk about the two divisions in the NFL that we
7:25
Speaker 1: think are the best divisions in the NFL that now
7:27
Speaker 1: have very interesting opportunities In Division odds, and then we
7:32
Speaker 1: got to talk about the JJ McCarthy moves, the late
7:37
Speaker 1: breaking changes to his odds in draft positioning. All of
7:41
Speaker 1: a sudden, there are conversations about Malik Neighbors being better
7:45
Speaker 1: or going higher than Marvin Harrison. So, dude, we got
7:49
Speaker 1: a lot of football to get into. I want to
7:52
Speaker 1: start your favorite team, Philadelphia Eagles. Right they are making moves.
8:00
Speaker 1: Jason Kelcey retired, DeAndre Swift gone big money to take one, Barkley,
8:10
Speaker 1: big money to the Bryce Huff, big money to see
8:12
Speaker 1: j Gardner Johnson. They're at eighteen to one to win
8:17
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl right now, and their odds have dropped
8:20
Speaker 1: from sixteen to one. As the Eagles expert on this show,
8:27
Speaker 1: give me your Eagles take right now.
8:30
Speaker 2: I love it. I love the moves they made and
8:33
Speaker 2: what they're doing. But we talk all the time. It's like,
8:37
Speaker 2: you need a lot of luck in this thing, and
8:40
Speaker 2: the teams that win in March tend not to do
8:43
Speaker 2: the teams that win the following year February. So take
8:46
Speaker 2: it all with the grain of salt. It's like a
8:48
Speaker 2: lot of these moves I would not have made. I
8:49
Speaker 2: didn't think how it would make either but how he's
8:52
Speaker 2: trying to evolve. And I talk to people within the
8:54
Speaker 2: organization and it's not blamely SAand they're taking the forty
8:58
Speaker 2: nine ers game plan, but they're looking at that. Okay,
9:02
Speaker 2: the NFL is shifted in a way that if you
9:03
Speaker 2: do have that dominant running back with a great blocking scheme,
9:06
Speaker 2: it can be a game changer to an offense when
9:08
Speaker 2: you have something to control like that. So I've seen
9:11
Speaker 2: it could replicate Christian McCaffrey, but we don't know the
9:14
Speaker 2: ceiling of Barkley. Barkley has been behind a bad offensive
9:17
Speaker 2: line his entire career. So yeah, offensively, I love the moves,
9:20
Speaker 2: and defensively it feels like how he's not punting on
9:23
Speaker 2: defense a little bit. But he's definitely put a lot
9:26
Speaker 2: more resources into that offensive line and that offense itself
9:29
Speaker 2: than he hasn't too the defense, So as an Eagle
9:32
Speaker 2: is better. Yeah, nothing's changed from my viewpoint. I think
9:34
Speaker 2: people knew going into it. We do the same thing
9:36
Speaker 2: every year. If you're new to the show, mean Chat.
9:38
Speaker 2: Every year we bet the Cowboys and if they win
9:40
Speaker 2: the division, the next year we bet the Eagles, and
9:42
Speaker 2: we've done that will be our sixth season. We're six
9:45
Speaker 2: and zero on just doing this strategy, which sounds crazy people,
9:49
Speaker 2: but that's just what this division is at flip Flop.
9:51
Speaker 2: So yeah, for long shots, we'll talk later in the
9:54
Speaker 2: season if you want my chalk bet. Right now, I'm
9:56
Speaker 2: just blindly taking the Eagles. Eagles. We're ten and one
9:59
Speaker 2: through a eleven games last season and lost the division
10:02
Speaker 2: to the Cowboys. None of it makes sense, people. This
10:05
Speaker 2: division does not make sense every year at flip Flops.
10:08
Speaker 2: So the Cowboys won the division last year. Now they'll
10:10
Speaker 2: play play the first play schedule. You expect that to
10:13
Speaker 2: count as negative few games towards their win total. That
10:15
Speaker 2: gives the Eagles the bump to be able to steal
10:17
Speaker 2: this division because the difference between them is not that big,
10:20
Speaker 2: so you assume the Eagles will improve of what they
10:24
Speaker 2: did last year, the fact that they came in second
10:26
Speaker 2: this division. So yeah, Eagles Division, Eagles over ten and
10:29
Speaker 2: a half wins if you want to make those bets
10:31
Speaker 2: on one, obviously both of them.
10:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting you say that about Howie Roseman and
10:41
Speaker 1: the defense because they invested so many draft picks the
10:46
Speaker 1: past few years. Right in Jalen Carter in Kobe Dean
10:52
Speaker 1: in other people on the defensive side of the ball. Basically,
10:56
Speaker 1: anybody who played defense at Georgia eventually played defense for
11:00
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles, and it was the defense that sort
11:04
Speaker 1: of did them in last year. And so to me,
11:11
Speaker 1: the key addition might not be a player defensively. And
11:15
Speaker 1: now Fletcher Cox is retired and there's conversations about Hasan
11:20
Speaker 1: Reddick and what's going to happen with him. They added
11:23
Speaker 1: Vic Fangio as their defensive coordinator, and this is going
11:27
Speaker 1: to be a theme a little bit on this show
11:29
Speaker 1: today is the importance of coordinators and their ability to
11:34
Speaker 1: change what a defense was doing. And look that defense
11:37
Speaker 1: last year and the offense both catastrophic, but the defense,
11:42
Speaker 1: especially Matt Patricia coming in the middle of the year,
11:47
Speaker 1: they never got better. It was they were flailing. And
11:50
Speaker 1: like that led to questions about Siriani and I think
11:55
Speaker 1: what we're seeing is, sure, we want to get better
11:57
Speaker 1: on the offensive side of the ball, but we spent
11:59
Speaker 1: a lot of time on defense. Maybe it's the scheme
12:02
Speaker 1: and the coaching. Your take, I.
12:05
Speaker 2: Would say that's the hope, but it's also like again, guys,
12:08
Speaker 2: you named Jordan Davis, is another big guy we drafted
12:11
Speaker 2: in the first round. If he's overweight and he's not producing,
12:14
Speaker 2: that's a miss by Howie. And that's just how it
12:16
Speaker 2: is when you draft and you know they still have
12:19
Speaker 2: a ton of cap money left. But how he doesn't
12:22
Speaker 2: want to spend the linebacker position, which I understand, it's
12:25
Speaker 2: a deviality position. But you're also seeing some of the
12:28
Speaker 2: best defenses last year the Ravens what they have some
12:32
Speaker 2: of the best linebackers on football. What the fory Anders
12:34
Speaker 2: have some of the best linebackers in football. So I
12:37
Speaker 2: understand what how He's trying to do, but it doesn't
12:39
Speaker 2: really make sense when there is a ton of money.
12:41
Speaker 2: Still has a ton of money. I think we're third
12:42
Speaker 2: or fourth most money left in cap. Even though he
12:44
Speaker 2: spent all this money, he still could go out and
12:47
Speaker 2: sign another player and he just didn't. So defensively, chat
12:51
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, they are hoping the scheme's a big deal.
12:54
Speaker 2: But even the year we went to the Super Bowl,
12:56
Speaker 2: that defense was really good. Obviously they think they almost
12:59
Speaker 2: broke the record for in a season in the NFL. Yeah,
13:02
Speaker 2: but they played a zone based defense. They basically did
13:06
Speaker 2: the same thing where they would give up tons of
13:07
Speaker 2: yards and then try to stop in the red zone.
13:09
Speaker 2: That's that was the key to their success, right because
13:11
Speaker 2: the offense wasn't being stopping in the red zones. They're
13:13
Speaker 2: getting touchdowns. All their defenses hold teams of field goals.
13:16
Speaker 2: Sounds pretty simple. That's literally what their defense did. I
13:19
Speaker 2: think how he's bank on that once again with fangs
13:21
Speaker 2: here where it's like, you know what, we don't We're
13:23
Speaker 2: not going to have the talent. Let me try to
13:25
Speaker 2: overpower this offense, get as many the best player as
13:28
Speaker 2: I can possibly get and really stack this offense. And
13:31
Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to go cheap here at linebacker and
13:33
Speaker 2: maybe safety for this defense, and that that will be
13:36
Speaker 2: the weakness of the team. So nothing's changed here, Like
13:39
Speaker 2: they really don't addressed the safety position, didn't draft the linebackers.
13:43
Speaker 2: Still think they're right there with the forty nine ers,
13:46
Speaker 2: but public perception, we talk all the time. In the
13:49
Speaker 2: public's mind, they're nowhere near the forty nine ers right now,
13:51
Speaker 2: just because the last time they saw them play, the
13:53
Speaker 2: forty nine ers absolutely dominated them. So that's just how
13:56
Speaker 2: it is in football.
13:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, consensus odds to win the Super Bowl, right, now,
14:01
Speaker 1: the Eagles are not close to being near the top
14:05
Speaker 1: of that particular It's the Niners, the Chiefs, the Ravens,
14:11
Speaker 1: the Bills, and the Lions. Are the five teams that
14:14
Speaker 1: are twelve to one or less just on the outside
14:17
Speaker 1: of that. And we're going to talk about them, the
14:19
Speaker 1: Bengals and the Eagles and then the Cowboys. But you're right,
14:23
Speaker 1: the problem is last year, think about who the Eagles
14:27
Speaker 1: are going to be playing against. Their achilles heel was
14:30
Speaker 1: the middle of that field. They could not stop anybody
14:33
Speaker 1: in the middle of that field. What do the Cowboys
14:36
Speaker 1: do well through to the middle of the field? Ce
14:39
Speaker 1: d Lamb on those slants? What do the Niners do
14:42
Speaker 1: well tomming patterns in the middle of the field. If
14:45
Speaker 1: the Eagles cannot cover the middle of the field because
14:47
Speaker 1: they're not signing next caliber quality talent, I don't know
14:53
Speaker 1: how much Vic Fangio can do, but that is basically
14:56
Speaker 1: what they're relying on at this point. Last week you
15:02
Speaker 1: asked me how I felt about Justin Fields getting traded
15:06
Speaker 1: for a sixth round pick conditional fourth round. Right now,
15:09
Speaker 1: he was going into the season as the backup to
15:11
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson in the Steelers. What a fall for Justin Fields.
15:18
Speaker 1: And it bums me out because I love the guy
15:21
Speaker 1: and I just thought he bought into Chicago. The fans
15:27
Speaker 1: loved him. To me, this was a clear indication of
15:32
Speaker 1: everything that we saw at the end of the year
15:34
Speaker 1: as Bears fans, his inability to execute within the confines
15:38
Speaker 1: of the offense. And you just look at that last
15:41
Speaker 1: game of the year. He could not move the ball
15:44
Speaker 1: down the field, he could not beat a depleted defense,
15:48
Speaker 1: he could not execute on the plays that would have
15:50
Speaker 1: given them a chance to win a winnable game. And
15:54
Speaker 1: I think everybody saw that. And what was so surprising
15:56
Speaker 1: to me is this week Ryan Pohl saying, Yeah, we
15:58
Speaker 1: were really surprised. Mark for him wasn't as strong as
16:02
Speaker 1: as we expected it to be. But everything was on
16:05
Speaker 1: the tape.
16:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, But it's also the money is just weird in
16:11
Speaker 2: the NFL. Where in what world is Trey Lance going
16:15
Speaker 2: for a fourth round pick and Justin Fields is going
16:17
Speaker 2: for a sixth round pick? Like, is a year difference
16:19
Speaker 2: that big of a deal just because the unknown of
16:22
Speaker 2: Trey Lance maybe, but who knows. But yeah, the Justin
16:26
Speaker 2: Field scenario, you can say it's a little bit of
16:28
Speaker 2: bad luck. But we already talked about in football you
16:32
Speaker 2: know pretty quick, like if guys can sink or swim,
16:35
Speaker 2: you know pretty quick. And availability is a big part
16:38
Speaker 2: of that. Where if Josh Allen had come in and
16:40
Speaker 2: gotten hurt both of his first seasons with the Bills
16:43
Speaker 2: and then struggled again the third season, he would have
16:46
Speaker 2: been gone if they had a high draft pick. And
16:48
Speaker 2: that's the exact scenario with Justin Fields, where Justin Fields
16:51
Speaker 2: has all the upside of Josh Allen, like the things
16:54
Speaker 2: he can do running wise, his arm, talent, all of it.
16:57
Speaker 2: Justin Fields was probably ahead of where Josh Allen was
16:59
Speaker 2: after two. But that's the thing. It's like Josh Allen
17:02
Speaker 2: was available, he stayed on the field, he got the reps,
17:05
Speaker 2: and he improved and he took that third year jump
17:08
Speaker 2: me and you bet on that Justin Field's third year
17:10
Speaker 2: jump and it just never came and he just couldn't
17:12
Speaker 2: stay on in the field. So Justin Fields, I mean,
17:14
Speaker 2: you hope that once you got the number one receiver
17:16
Speaker 2: maybe that would change, just like it did for Josh Allen,
17:18
Speaker 2: and it didn't. And it's all about draft position. If
17:21
Speaker 2: if the Bears had the seventh pick that I don't
17:24
Speaker 2: know if they would be moving on from Justin Fields.
17:27
Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinal fans want to puff their chest out as
17:29
Speaker 2: if their team's committed to Kyler Murray. If they had
17:31
Speaker 2: the number one pick, Kyler Murray would be on the move.
17:34
Speaker 2: Why would you not reset with a rookie draft and
17:36
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. It's just the money makes sense, and Caleb
17:40
Speaker 2: Williams upside is far greater than Kyler Murray's upside, and
17:43
Speaker 2: Sam goes with Justin Fields. Justin Fields has a great upside,
17:46
Speaker 2: but it's not Caleb Williams upside. And the rookie contract
17:50
Speaker 2: also mixed in with that. You just the Bears never
17:52
Speaker 2: had a choice here. So yeah, the most interesting takeaway
17:55
Speaker 2: from me is the books are already opened the Bears
17:59
Speaker 2: eight and a half their win total easy under bet.
18:02
Speaker 2: I mean that is just I feel bad for Bears fans,
18:05
Speaker 2: like that is such a nice little bet from They go, yeah,
18:07
Speaker 2: why wouldn't we be nine and eight? Like that? Just
18:09
Speaker 2: that that is literally a number hung for Bears fans.
18:12
Speaker 2: So yeah, even before he's drafted, Caleb Williams already getting
18:16
Speaker 2: a tough number from the books. Eight and a half.
18:18
Speaker 2: I'll be all over that. Under Well, look, here's the problem.
18:21
Speaker 1: We're looking at DJ Moore, We're looking at Enan Allen,
18:27
Speaker 1: We're looking at Cole Camet, We're looking at DeAndre Swift.
18:32
Speaker 1: We kept Jalen Johnson, we have Montes Sweat. We will
18:37
Speaker 1: add assets in the draft to the offensive line. So
18:42
Speaker 1: of course the number is going to be high. The
18:46
Speaker 1: only thing that is missing is Caleb Williams. And you
18:51
Speaker 1: could argue, all right, if it happened with CJ. Stroud,
18:56
Speaker 1: is Caleb Williams as good as c J. Stroud? Does
19:00
Speaker 1: he have that kind of upside? You're totally right. The
19:03
Speaker 1: books are are so playing to the public perception of
19:08
Speaker 1: everything else the Bears have done, and they are. They
19:12
Speaker 1: are defying you. You know. Define you to take this bet,
19:19
Speaker 1: and I'm with you. I'm going to bet the under
19:22
Speaker 1: on the Bears. I'm going to root for a bet
19:25
Speaker 1: that i I'm going to root against the bet Chicago
19:30
Speaker 1: plus two fifty to win the NFC North. Honestly, that
19:34
Speaker 1: feels a little bit high. It opened at four fifty.
19:36
Speaker 1: And that's another one. This just move in, move in,
19:41
Speaker 1: move it. Because the Lions, the Lions are are like
19:46
Speaker 1: the what is it? Right now? The Lions are number
19:51
Speaker 1: the fifth shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, second
19:54
Speaker 1: shortest in the NFC. There are twelve to one, and
19:58
Speaker 1: so like the Bears are going to be able to
20:00
Speaker 1: contend with that. There's no way they should be a
20:02
Speaker 1: barely more than two to one to win the NFC North.
20:05
Speaker 1: This is a team. You know. There's a lot of
20:08
Speaker 1: talk this week and about Chris Beattie, the new wide
20:12
Speaker 1: receivers coach because he worked with Keenan Allen in Los
20:16
Speaker 1: Angeles and on the Chargers, and just not a buyer
20:20
Speaker 1: that a coach at this position level versus say a
20:23
Speaker 1: Vic Fangio is going to be the guy who can
20:25
Speaker 1: be the difference maker for an entire team, right, And
20:29
Speaker 1: this all feels like irrational exuberance from Bears fans and
20:35
Speaker 1: we are in for a massive letdown of a season.
20:40
Speaker 2: No, I just I think you know, if the kid
20:43
Speaker 2: shows you something, right, if he throws for three thousan
20:47
Speaker 2: five hundred yards and twenty five touchdowns and fifteen picks
20:51
Speaker 2: and you guys do go seven and nine or eight nine,
20:54
Speaker 2: I should say that's a good year. Right. The the
20:59
Speaker 2: CJC if you go back and look, they had a
21:02
Speaker 2: ton of lucky breaks and he played out of his
21:05
Speaker 2: mind obviously, But it's a lot about that division, right,
21:09
Speaker 2: like him being in a division that's a little weak
21:11
Speaker 2: compared to your division where you are playing a good
21:14
Speaker 2: Detroit team, you are playing a team in Green Bay
21:17
Speaker 2: that are quickly becoming one of the most hyped up
21:20
Speaker 2: teams in all football because of Jordan Love and even
21:23
Speaker 2: the Vikings. If they do take JJ McCarthy like we're
21:26
Speaker 2: gonna talk about later, you know, or Drake May whoever
21:29
Speaker 2: they get, I still don't think they're going to be
21:31
Speaker 2: a cakewalk for this Bears team with a rookie quarterback,
21:35
Speaker 2: especially when they're on the road. So yeah, the excitement
21:38
Speaker 2: for the Bears fans is just the prospect of the future.
21:42
Speaker 2: That was what the the excitement was with Justin Fields.
21:44
Speaker 2: It was like, oh, we might have somebody here. The
21:47
Speaker 2: feeling is tensefold with Williams here, Like rarely do you
21:50
Speaker 2: get the slam dunk number one pick, no doubt about it.
21:55
Speaker 2: Like most seasons are like that Baker season where it's
21:57
Speaker 2: like is it Baker? Is it Sam Darnold? Now they're
22:00
Speaker 2: both bumps. It was Josh Allen all along, like no
22:03
Speaker 2: one knew. That's the toughest part with being these drafts.
22:06
Speaker 2: So Caleb Williams, there's not an expert out there like
22:09
Speaker 2: last year I was. I was on my high horse
22:11
Speaker 2: yelling people not to take Bryce Young in the first round.
22:14
Speaker 2: There's none of that at all with Caleb Williams. But
22:16
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams, I think anyone he talked to, any scout,
22:19
Speaker 2: any team, they might have their questions about him, but
22:22
Speaker 2: he's the number one pick in this draft.
22:24
Speaker 1: The questions are going to be attitude. You know what's funny.
22:27
Speaker 1: I watched his post of course, of course, like I
22:32
Speaker 1: watched practically every throw miss pro day at USC and
22:37
Speaker 1: he totally missed probably three or four deep balls really
22:41
Speaker 1: pretty badly. And he went on Cowherd after with Colin
22:48
Speaker 1: did a post pro day interview, and Colin first asked
22:54
Speaker 1: them about the deep balls, and Caleb immediately talked about
22:58
Speaker 1: missing the throws. He was disappointed in the throws, and
23:02
Speaker 1: then which I was happy about, and then he started
23:05
Speaker 1: talking to him about you know, being a running quarterback.
23:11
Speaker 1: In the last year, you were scrambling a lot more.
23:15
Speaker 1: Was it the offensive line? Was it you wanting to scramble,
23:18
Speaker 1: and Caleb very hard, tried very hard to not throw
23:22
Speaker 1: his team under the bus, and so very short clip answer,
23:28
Speaker 1: I don't want to run. So Colin pushed him a
23:30
Speaker 1: little more and all he would say is I don't
23:32
Speaker 1: want to run, and it kind of had an attitude
23:34
Speaker 1: about it, which I didn't mind because he didn't want
23:38
Speaker 1: to throw his team under the bus, but he also
23:40
Speaker 1: wanted to be clear, I'm not looking to scramble, and
23:42
Speaker 1: I think that'll be something that's encouraging for Bears fans.
23:45
Speaker 1: But I freaking loved the interview And if he doesn't
23:50
Speaker 1: do well early on those press conferences are going to
23:54
Speaker 1: be fucking fireworks and I cannot wait.
23:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely.
24:01
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, what the hell are they doing? They fired
24:06
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel because they decide they want to rebuild. Then
24:09
Speaker 1: they signed Calvin Ridley, they signed Tony Pollard, They trade
24:14
Speaker 1: for Lugerious Snead, they had already added another defensive back.
24:20
Speaker 1: The signings say when now the words say rebuild. And
24:25
Speaker 1: does it even matter because Will Levis is the quarterback?
24:30
Speaker 2: Yeah? Pretty crazy and I like the moves. If they
24:34
Speaker 2: were a more veteran team. But you're right, like this
24:38
Speaker 2: is a lot to be banking on with Will Levis,
24:41
Speaker 2: and it feels a little bit like Atlanta, Like Atlanta
24:43
Speaker 2: had built this incredible car, but they had no engine
24:45
Speaker 2: for the car. They didn't have a quarterback. So it
24:47
Speaker 2: could be the same Yere at Tennessee, where you know,
24:49
Speaker 2: it's an incredible car, but there's I mean there's nothing,
24:52
Speaker 2: there's nothing to drive it, like, there's just no engine.
24:54
Speaker 2: And Will Levis, we have no idea what this kid is,
24:57
Speaker 2: but he's got no excuse. Right, They've surrounded him with
24:59
Speaker 2: the talent. Now hopefully keep addressing the offensive line and
25:03
Speaker 2: that will be the key to their success. If he
25:04
Speaker 2: takes an if he takes the second year step that
25:07
Speaker 2: was a slam dunk draft pick, they could pull off
25:10
Speaker 2: a huge, you know run and win this division. But
25:13
Speaker 2: we talked about this, this division quickly turned from a
25:16
Speaker 2: joke to one of the toughest in all football. You know,
25:20
Speaker 2: the culture kind of left for dead here. We don't
25:22
Speaker 2: really know what to think of them with Anthony Richardson.
25:25
Speaker 2: But then you just look at the Jaguars in Houston,
25:27
Speaker 2: like those are also teams that are like win now
25:29
Speaker 2: mode pushing for championship, like Houston's making moves that they
25:33
Speaker 2: know this is their window. Sam goes for the Jaguars,
25:36
Speaker 2: So I like the moves for Tennessee. But it still
25:39
Speaker 2: feels like, I don't know what to you, Chab. They
25:41
Speaker 2: still like they're the fourth team in this division, just
25:43
Speaker 2: because of all the quarterbacks in this division. I still
25:47
Speaker 2: have will love us behind Anthony richards I just don't
25:49
Speaker 2: have any faith in him yet.
25:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, he hasn't proven anything. You know, Anthony Richardson in
25:53
Speaker 1: the few games that he played, show of playmaking ability
25:58
Speaker 1: that was beyond fly off your back foot throat as
26:03
Speaker 1: far as you can to DeAndre Hopkins and hope that
26:05
Speaker 1: he catches it right. And his ability to get outside
26:09
Speaker 1: the pocket. Obviously he was injured running the ball. That's
26:13
Speaker 1: going to be something that they need to take care
26:14
Speaker 1: of and pay attention to. But he was making all
26:17
Speaker 1: the throws that you needed to make in coverage, in
26:20
Speaker 1: tight coverage windows. They were accurate. It was short, it
26:23
Speaker 1: was medium, it was long. He was playing real professional quarterback,
26:26
Speaker 1: not sort of schoolyard. I've got a great arm. I'm
26:29
Speaker 1: just going to throw it to the fastest guy down
26:30
Speaker 1: the field, So I agree with you this sort of
26:33
Speaker 1: every move you want to make is kind of irrelevant
26:38
Speaker 1: until you've got a real understanding of what Will Levis is.
26:42
Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, you're signing these guys Ridley
26:45
Speaker 1: at twenty nine, Pollard, who proved that he probably wasn't
26:48
Speaker 1: the every down back, Lugerius Snead, probably one of the
26:52
Speaker 1: best cornerbacks in the NFL. You're signing him to a
26:55
Speaker 1: three to four year deal. By the time you figure
26:58
Speaker 1: out what the quarterback situation is. Great, you got a
27:00
Speaker 1: lockdown corner against quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence
27:08
Speaker 1: and c. J. Stroud, But if you kind of wasted
27:11
Speaker 1: it because he didn't have a quarterback in place. So
27:14
Speaker 1: interesting moves. Speaking of Houston twenty to one to win
27:18
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl open to twenty two to one, they
27:21
Speaker 1: made two huge moves that I think matter, and if
27:25
Speaker 1: not for one other team that we're going to discuss,
27:29
Speaker 1: they would be one of the more interesting longer shot
27:33
Speaker 1: bets to win the Super Bowl. Traded for and extended
27:38
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon, signed Danil Hunter to rush the quarterback opposite
27:46
Speaker 1: Will Anderson. Love both of those moves.
27:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, and championship moves where the deal hunter is like
27:52
Speaker 2: literally like a two year deal I believe. Yeah, but
27:55
Speaker 2: he's our mercenary. He's coming in there all business. I'm
27:58
Speaker 2: right there with you. I love the move of you know, obviously,
28:02
Speaker 2: this team traded their first round pick, I believe for
28:05
Speaker 2: this season, right or Will Anderson, So they don't have
28:08
Speaker 2: a pick. Not that big a deal obviously because it's
28:11
Speaker 2: been towards the back end of the draft, but they
28:13
Speaker 2: needed to address a lot of a lot of stuff
28:15
Speaker 2: in free agency just because of that though, like they
28:17
Speaker 2: need to go after and make try to make moves here.
28:19
Speaker 2: So yeah, you're you're right, Chad. It's like the piggy
28:23
Speaker 2: back of the Tennessee team. I hope Tennessee struggles will
28:25
Speaker 2: coming year because that means next year, if we like
28:28
Speaker 2: what we saw a little bit from Will Lewis, we'll
28:30
Speaker 2: get a great discount on Tennessee next year. So obviously
28:33
Speaker 2: Tennessee's not on my raider all this year. Same thing
28:36
Speaker 2: kind of goes with Houston here this year. It's going
28:38
Speaker 2: to be too much of a public team, too much
28:40
Speaker 2: love for this team. Have the offensive rookie year, the
28:43
Speaker 2: defensive Rookie of the Year. I don't bet that way.
28:46
Speaker 2: It's too simple, it's too public. I'll look I'll look
28:50
Speaker 2: for value elsewhere, especially during the season if if Houston
28:52
Speaker 2: gets out to a quick start, but you assume, which
28:57
Speaker 2: we see a lot is after a quarterback place for
29:00
Speaker 2: a full season, teams tend to adjust to it in
29:04
Speaker 2: the offseason and see what they like to do, and
29:06
Speaker 2: then they're able to kind of counter that for the
29:07
Speaker 2: upcoming season. Now, you know, I don't know if there's
29:10
Speaker 2: a lot of things you can do to counter the
29:11
Speaker 2: god given ability up CJ. He's incredible, He's an incredible passer.
29:16
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just in his pocket too. His comfort
29:18
Speaker 2: level for a first year start, it was crazy. So
29:20
Speaker 2: I get white people love them, and I know a
29:22
Speaker 2: couple of pros who have gone in early here on
29:24
Speaker 2: Houston's win total. But for me, I just don't see
29:27
Speaker 2: the value in a team that's going to be a
29:28
Speaker 2: little overrated and you're really banking on him taking a
29:31
Speaker 2: next step that it's really hard to project, Like it's
29:35
Speaker 2: you know, there's so many good quarterbacks in that AFC conference.
29:40
Speaker 2: Now he's got the first place schedule chat. It's just
29:42
Speaker 2: really hard for me to get behind Houston with that
29:44
Speaker 2: much stacked against them that they're not sneaking up on anybody.
29:47
Speaker 2: Everyone knows they're coming now. So Houston fans, please don't
29:51
Speaker 2: get mad at me. I just I love you, guys,
29:52
Speaker 2: but I'm going to be fading you pretty hard. Won
29:55
Speaker 2: the future market.
29:56
Speaker 1: We are going to talk about one of those quarterbacks
29:59
Speaker 1: and one of those t ts where there is value.
30:03
Speaker 1: Right after Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing
30:09
Speaker 1: app in the United States?
30:11
Speaker 2: Game Time?
30:12
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for
30:14
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor their show. Second, I
30:18
Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing
30:20
Speaker 1: last minute deals, including pro and college sports. I'm actually
30:24
Speaker 1: opening the game Time app right now. Look at what
30:28
Speaker 1: I found. Opening Day coming up. We can get in
30:33
Speaker 1: to see the New York Metropolitans opening day this week
30:39
Speaker 1: less than forty bucks for a beautiful day at City Field.
30:43
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
30:46
Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. You deserve it.
30:48
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off first
30:51
Speaker 1: purchase terms apply again. Just download the game Time app
30:54
Speaker 1: and use code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase,
30:57
Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. All right, I've been
30:59
Speaker 1: teas it long enough. AFC North last year goes down
31:04
Speaker 1: Probably is one of the best divisions in football in
31:09
Speaker 1: a generation. Each team went over their season win total.
31:13
Speaker 1: They went into the year with the highest season win
31:15
Speaker 1: totals of any division in the NFL. No team was
31:19
Speaker 1: below eight and a half. They all went above their
31:21
Speaker 1: season win totals. This is a very interesting division. You
31:27
Speaker 1: could argue some of the moves have been highest profile,
31:31
Speaker 1: most questioned in the NFL free agency market. This year. Baltimore,
31:37
Speaker 1: which decided not to run the ball against the defense
31:40
Speaker 1: that was willing to give them the run and lost
31:43
Speaker 1: the AFC Championship because of it, signed Derrick Henry at
31:47
Speaker 1: thirty years old. They let Patrick Queen, one of the
31:53
Speaker 1: core of that linebacking unit that you talked about earlier,
31:56
Speaker 1: walk to sign a big free agent deal with the
31:59
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Deers. Pittsburgh Steelers signed Russell Wilson for a very
32:04
Speaker 1: small deal. Trader for Justin Fields. Could be a fun
32:07
Speaker 1: quarterback competition. They have new thinking when it comes to
32:12
Speaker 1: offensive strategy Cleveland Browns, and the Cleveland Browns they haven't
32:16
Speaker 1: done much, they can't do much because they're wrapped up
32:19
Speaker 1: into Shaun Watson. Then there are the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm
32:26
Speaker 1: going to interrupt this program right now full reminder that
32:29
Speaker 1: we are on the Bengals hype train, and I'm not
32:34
Speaker 1: gonna lie. I bet the Bengals are fifteen to one
32:37
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. They're now at thirteen to
32:41
Speaker 1: one in some books, so six shortest odds. This team's
32:48
Speaker 1: getting better just by getting healthy, you know what I mean,
32:51
Speaker 1: and they improve their defensive backfield. So Bengals fifteen to one,
32:56
Speaker 1: Bengals plus one seventy five to win the division. Simon,
33:01
Speaker 1: are we buddies on this?
33:04
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think we talked about that. You know Joe
33:06
Speaker 2: Burrow what he has going for me. He's he's the
33:07
Speaker 2: guy that has zero fear of Mahomes and that Chiefs team.
33:11
Speaker 2: He's the one that usually beats them in the regular
33:13
Speaker 2: season and in the playoffs. Historically, he's done really well
33:16
Speaker 2: against them. So don't don't mind it. I love it.
33:19
Speaker 2: But you're also banking on a Joe Burrow who it
33:22
Speaker 2: hurts to say people but he's been hurt in two
33:25
Speaker 2: seasons in his career. Like we say it all the time,
33:27
Speaker 2: availability is very important in football, and for him to
33:32
Speaker 2: stay upright, it's a big deal. So last year, people
33:35
Speaker 2: will remember I basically was all in on this division
33:37
Speaker 2: that anybody I could. I was gonna win money as
33:40
Speaker 2: long as everybody could win. But the Bengals. The Bengals
33:43
Speaker 2: are the only team I was gonna lose money on.
33:45
Speaker 2: And it was a simple bet of there's no way
33:48
Speaker 2: this team's gonna win this division three years in a row. Right,
33:51
Speaker 2: It's just it just can't happen. You just need so
33:53
Speaker 2: much luck to win a division, especially this one that's
33:55
Speaker 2: so competitive. But this season I see I see the
33:58
Speaker 2: Ravens taking a big step back, Like it feels like
34:01
Speaker 2: they didn't have the best offseason right with their signings,
34:04
Speaker 2: and they just don't They don't have the money to
34:05
Speaker 2: really spend. You know, last year was just such a
34:08
Speaker 2: perfect season for them. They had so much talent, so
34:12
Speaker 2: many guys playing way above their head. It was just
34:14
Speaker 2: all there where you expect the Ravens to have it
34:17
Speaker 2: down here compared to the season before. So that right there,
34:20
Speaker 2: you want to give a leg up to the Bengals.
34:22
Speaker 2: But you know, this division, like you just said, Schad,
34:26
Speaker 2: it's gonna be really competitive. Like we still don't know,
34:28
Speaker 2: really know what Deshaun Watson is. We know he's not
34:30
Speaker 2: the old Deshaun Watson, but you know he had flashes
34:34
Speaker 2: where it like he looks like his old self. So
34:36
Speaker 2: it's really hard to project out the Browns. Sam goes
34:39
Speaker 2: with Pittsburgh. I like what the moves Pittsburgh has made here.
34:41
Speaker 2: I like the coaching hires they've made. You know, Russell Wilson.
34:45
Speaker 2: I think they told him he was gonna be the
34:47
Speaker 2: quarterback and that's why they're playing it really nice in
34:49
Speaker 2: the media. But I think day one of spring practice,
34:52
Speaker 2: once they see Justin Fields out there with them, it's
34:55
Speaker 2: just different. It's different seeing a young, twenty year old
34:58
Speaker 2: movie compared to a guy in his thirties that's been
35:01
Speaker 2: around for a long time. So you know, it all
35:04
Speaker 2: depends what Tom's looking for. But I think the upside
35:07
Speaker 2: of Justin Fields plays into that. So really fun division.
35:10
Speaker 2: Like I just said, if you want to go boring Chalk,
35:12
Speaker 2: I do like Chad's pick of the Bengals. I do
35:15
Speaker 2: think to me, they're the best team in this division.
35:17
Speaker 2: But I'm probably gonna talk myself into Pittsburgh. I'm not
35:21
Speaker 2: gonna lie. I can't quit Justin Fields. I can't quit
35:23
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh team and all the talent they have. So
35:26
Speaker 2: do not be shocked if I get sucked. And I
35:28
Speaker 2: haven't yet. I have not bet it yet, but I
35:31
Speaker 2: just knowing myself, there's just so much I love about
35:32
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh team. I think they have good value right
35:35
Speaker 2: now for this division.
35:36
Speaker 1: Well, look, Pittsburgh's is ten Pittsburgh is ten to one
35:38
Speaker 1: to win the division.
35:39
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, no chance, But I just love the value.
35:42
Speaker 1: Well, it isn't no chance. Look, it's not like there's
35:47
Speaker 1: no history here with Tomlin and his team's being competitive
35:51
Speaker 1: no matter who the quarterback is and no matter how
35:54
Speaker 1: bad the offense is. Just look at last year like
35:57
Speaker 1: they were in it. They were in it for the
35:59
Speaker 1: entire season. And he is unwavering in his confidence and
36:05
Speaker 1: in his ability to build the team for the end
36:08
Speaker 1: of the year. And you'll see Justin Fields is a
36:11
Speaker 1: tantalizing talent. The coaches will see that, and who knows,
36:14
Speaker 1: maybe a different head coach and a different mentality will
36:20
Speaker 1: give him an opportunity to succeed in ways he hasn't before.
36:24
Speaker 1: I don't anticipate Russell Wilson is going to be a
36:26
Speaker 1: great mentor for him. It doesn't seem like that's necessarily
36:31
Speaker 1: the game that they're going to want to play. I
36:34
Speaker 1: don't find, by the way, the Bengals to be Chalky
36:39
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five. It's the second shortest odds in
36:42
Speaker 1: the Vision, so technically not Chalky. But I do feel
36:47
Speaker 1: like the Bengals value at fifteen to one, you know.
36:50
Speaker 2: What I mean? Everyone loves them. Who doesn't love the Bengals?
36:52
Speaker 2: What's not the love?
36:53
Speaker 1: Well, look not everyone is talking about the Bengals as
36:55
Speaker 1: much as we are. Everyone is talking about the Lions,
36:57
Speaker 1: everyone is talking about the Bills, everyone is talking about
37:01
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, everyone is talking about the Niners. No one
37:04
Speaker 1: is talking about the Bengals. Like the only people who
37:07
Speaker 1: are talking about the Bengals and saying, wait a second,
37:10
Speaker 1: this doesn't make sense. The Bengals are being graded as
37:13
Speaker 1: if Joe Burrow played last year and was just terrible.
37:17
Speaker 1: They're not being greater as if Joe Burrow was hurt
37:19
Speaker 1: literally from the time the season started and never got
37:22
Speaker 1: healthy and now this defense has gotten even better, so
37:26
Speaker 1: and their coaching staff returns. So to me, there's just
37:30
Speaker 1: tremendous value in the Bengals right now. Love it, damn
37:35
Speaker 1: straight you love it. As a reminder for the second time,
37:39
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
37:42
Speaker 1: For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
37:45
Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
37:50
Speaker 1: All Right, the NFL Draft is one month away. Just today,
37:55
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy news a lot of buzz about him ing
38:00
Speaker 1: up the draft charts. A month ago, on this show,
38:02
Speaker 1: we noted how Todd McShay draft expert Ketcham on Ryan
38:06
Speaker 1: Risolo's podcast was hearing scouts loved McCarthy. So that was
38:11
Speaker 1: an early sign that there was starting to be buzz.
38:13
Speaker 1: And honestly, it feels like there has been more talk
38:16
Speaker 1: about McCarthy this week or last week, Jim Harbaugh saying
38:19
Speaker 1: he's the best quarterback in the draft. Everyone wants to
38:22
Speaker 1: figure out if he's sort of that under evaluated, tantalizing prospect.
38:30
Speaker 1: So this week the odds on McCarthy to go number
38:34
Speaker 1: two have shrunk again, opened north of twenty to one
38:40
Speaker 1: on Monday. He went from ten to one to four
38:44
Speaker 1: to one to be the second overall pick. Simon your take.
38:52
Speaker 2: Never saw it coming, just from watching his tape and
38:55
Speaker 2: talking to scouts. I never would have bet that this
38:57
Speaker 2: was going to happen. But no, it's that time of here, Chad.
39:00
Speaker 2: Incredible smoke screen by the GM of the Commanders. Apparently
39:05
Speaker 2: they're all up at the owners meeting. This GM is
39:09
Speaker 2: going around telling people that he loves JJ and he
39:11
Speaker 2: might take him at pick two. And now teams might
39:14
Speaker 2: you know, trade up to go to that number two
39:16
Speaker 2: pick because they like JJ that much they're going to
39:18
Speaker 2: take him there. I just I can't buy it. I
39:20
Speaker 2: just can't buy the Commanders traded out of there either.
39:22
Speaker 2: It's like, are they really going to pass on you know,
39:27
Speaker 2: these once in a lifetime QB prospect even if it's
39:30
Speaker 2: not the number one guy. It feels like, you know,
39:34
Speaker 2: even if you want to take Drake Drake May great.
39:36
Speaker 2: But you know, to me Daniels, when we talked, you know,
39:39
Speaker 2: late February, I just bet him because I was like, Okay,
39:41
Speaker 2: his odds are too big. I think the race is
39:43
Speaker 2: closer to him and Drake May than people realize. I
39:45
Speaker 2: don't have any idea who's going number two. I don't
39:47
Speaker 2: think anyone does. So this GM can troll people all
39:50
Speaker 2: he wants. What I do know for a fact is,
39:52
Speaker 2: unlike Carolina, the owner is not going to make the
39:55
Speaker 2: decision for Washington. Apparently he has taking a step back
39:57
Speaker 2: and he is letting the GM make this choice, which
40:00
Speaker 2: is a big deal because I feel like once it leaks,
40:03
Speaker 2: we're really going to know who it is. And just
40:06
Speaker 2: going by the odds, to me, there's been no leaks,
40:08
Speaker 2: Daniels is still the favorite. I believe that minus one
40:10
Speaker 2: seventy in most books, no one knows. If you wake
40:14
Speaker 2: up and Daniel's up to minus five hundred, that would
40:17
Speaker 2: mean something's been leaked overnight, or the professional has got
40:20
Speaker 2: word that that's what's going to happen. They've hit that number.
40:22
Speaker 2: So for someone like me that likes to hedge my position,
40:26
Speaker 2: I was just gonna hedge out on Drake May. But
40:28
Speaker 2: now this whole JJ thing has kind of scared me
40:30
Speaker 2: a little bit because all these quarterbacks do have a
40:34
Speaker 2: weakness that you could point to be the reason why
40:36
Speaker 2: you didn't want to take them, And you know, some
40:39
Speaker 2: people out there really puff their chest out and love
40:41
Speaker 2: Drake May I've never felt that way about him. You know,
40:45
Speaker 2: a quarterback playing in the ACC and doing well is
40:47
Speaker 2: much different than a quarterback playing well in the SEC,
40:50
Speaker 2: and I think scouts know that as well. So as talented,
40:54
Speaker 2: as great as he's looked, it's just hard to really
40:57
Speaker 2: want to take an ACC quarterback over an SEC that
41:00
Speaker 2: number two pick. And that's why again I facked into
41:02
Speaker 2: that when I'm talking about Daniels and his big plus numbers.
41:05
Speaker 2: So the JJ stuff is really interesting, but I personally
41:09
Speaker 2: think it's all smoke screen. I think it's like we
41:11
Speaker 2: talked last year about the Will Levis. Will Levis, all
41:14
Speaker 2: of a sudden, this Reddit post and all these rumors,
41:16
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden his odds went way up
41:17
Speaker 2: to be the number two pick overall. At one point
41:20
Speaker 2: he was minus two hundred to be the number two
41:22
Speaker 2: pick on the draft. On the day of the draft,
41:24
Speaker 2: mind you like it was crazy. So me and you
41:27
Speaker 2: talk all the time people, there's a lot of noise.
41:30
Speaker 2: It's tough to sift through it. But I think the
41:33
Speaker 2: JJ stuff is just it's just noise. Even when you
41:36
Speaker 2: see Harball talking about it. Of course, Horrorball is gonna
41:39
Speaker 2: talk talk up his former quarterback and he's sitting there
41:41
Speaker 2: at the fifth pick. This man is dying for four
41:44
Speaker 2: quarterbacks to go before the fifth, fifth pick, and he
41:46
Speaker 2: could take Sam Martin Harris or whoever at that position.
41:50
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's all going to right now, it's
41:52
Speaker 2: all going to plan like someone from the outside. You
41:55
Speaker 2: got the ex coach talking them up. You got a
41:57
Speaker 2: GM throwing smoke screens because he thinks the Bikings are
41:59
Speaker 2: gonna try up to first round picks to go get
42:02
Speaker 2: this kid at the fourth pick. So this is this
42:04
Speaker 2: is my favorite time of year. It's just there's so
42:06
Speaker 2: much bs. It's just really fun to break it all down.
42:08
Speaker 1: Well, that's exactly what it is. There's so many there's
42:12
Speaker 1: so much noise in the signals. Uh to flip it around, right,
42:17
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy does not have the resume that Jaden Daniels
42:21
Speaker 1: have has, does not have the numbers, does not have
42:24
Speaker 1: the stature that Drake May has. And I say this
42:26
Speaker 1: as a guy who from the beginning has not been
42:30
Speaker 1: on the Drake May bandwagon. There's no reason for a
42:36
Speaker 1: conversation about him to all of a sudden be a
42:39
Speaker 1: top two pick. It is all conjecture rumor. This is
42:44
Speaker 1: the Tommy Year when NFL reporters, NFL gms, NFL owners
42:51
Speaker 1: are all in the same place. They're gossiping, They're chit chatting. Oh,
42:55
Speaker 1: like this guy, it's really interesting, you know. I like
42:58
Speaker 1: the way he does this, and like everyone wants to
43:01
Speaker 1: find something special that nobody else can see. In the
43:05
Speaker 1: entirety of American life, people believe in other people's superpowers
43:12
Speaker 1: and ability to see something that no one else can see.
43:15
Speaker 1: It's why people love betters. They believe they can see
43:19
Speaker 1: the future. They think they have some kind of secret
43:22
Speaker 1: that nobody else has that has allowed that allows them
43:25
Speaker 1: to see something and benefit from that power. This is
43:31
Speaker 1: the JJ McCarthy story right now. He's not going number
43:34
Speaker 1: two overall, No.
43:36
Speaker 2: No, But I would to be shocked to v win three,
43:39
Speaker 2: just because there are ways you could talk him over
43:41
Speaker 2: Drake May but yeah, over Daniel's. It's just it's just
43:45
Speaker 2: hard for me to wrap my head around that one
43:47
Speaker 2: h at pick two just for the upside. But yeah, JJ,
43:53
Speaker 2: you know the tape, it's hard to break down the tape,
43:56
Speaker 2: but the whole, the whole thing that a team could
43:58
Speaker 2: talk themselves into is just the fact that there is
44:01
Speaker 2: so much unknown to him. But what you do know
44:03
Speaker 2: is he did lead a team to quote unquote a
44:05
Speaker 2: national title, and he played in a horrible offense, which
44:08
Speaker 2: is a pro offense. So there are things that can
44:11
Speaker 2: be talked into it. I just if I'm drafting for upside,
44:14
Speaker 2: which every team should be drafting for, I just why
44:16
Speaker 2: would you not take Drake May if you're the Patriots
44:19
Speaker 2: instead of JJ. But again, a ton of smoke screen.
44:23
Speaker 2: You know, it's all the agents as well working together.
44:27
Speaker 2: I've been proven wrong. I never in my life would
44:29
Speaker 2: have believed Bryce Shong would have been the number one pick.
44:33
Speaker 2: And again that's not even try to shoot on now.
44:35
Speaker 2: People are trying to shoot on Bryce Shong a year later.
44:37
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, none of us would be shocked
44:39
Speaker 2: if he is better. But I think all of us
44:41
Speaker 2: can agree he never would have the ceiling that CJ
44:43
Speaker 2: had And that's just proven out. And the same thing
44:46
Speaker 2: kind of goes here where JJ. I just don't know
44:49
Speaker 2: if his ceiling is close to the other guys in
44:51
Speaker 2: the top three, where I do think he is gifted
44:53
Speaker 2: and it's fair to have him above you know, these
44:55
Speaker 2: other quarterbacks at Penix and bo Nicks. But yeah, it's
44:59
Speaker 2: it's tough for me to get there for him being
45:00
Speaker 2: a top three pick. But I told you guy, I
45:02
Speaker 2: told you a man, Mitchell, what was that a month ago?
45:05
Speaker 2: You know, scouts were talking about six quarterbacks going in
45:07
Speaker 2: the first round. Yeah, and I didn't believe it because
45:10
Speaker 2: it's like, I can't find the six. Now, if JJ
45:13
Speaker 2: does go top four and then Denver is coming up
45:17
Speaker 2: and taking bow knicks, and then the Bucks are coming
45:19
Speaker 2: up to take Pennix at the back end of the
45:22
Speaker 2: first that's six quarterbacks. So pretty pretty exciting draft if
45:27
Speaker 2: you're a big fan of the quarterback drafts, like this
45:29
Speaker 2: is this is as good as it gets, Like this
45:30
Speaker 2: is really crazy that you know this is already starting
45:33
Speaker 2: this early. But yeah, JJ being a top three pick,
45:36
Speaker 2: that would be a pretty big shocker draft for the
45:38
Speaker 2: silcoming draft.
45:39
Speaker 1: Mike Tannemb, I'm former GM at the Dolphins, current ESPN analyst,
45:44
Speaker 1: posted a GM's view of a mock draft today and
45:50
Speaker 1: he had Molik Neighbors growing ahead of Marvin Harrison Junior.
46:00
Speaker 1: First time I've seen someone say that. I know there's
46:02
Speaker 1: been a lot of conversation about those two getting closer,
46:05
Speaker 1: and the upside of Harrison not being that much higher
46:08
Speaker 1: than the upside of neighbors, and that you might actually
46:11
Speaker 1: be paying a premium for the name and Marvin Harrison.
46:15
Speaker 1: Or are you hearing anything about positioning for wide receivers.
46:22
Speaker 2: I think it comes down to what the team wants
46:24
Speaker 2: and what their mentality is. You know, our ball known
46:28
Speaker 2: has had a better look coming in the NFL than
46:31
Speaker 2: him going against Harris. So if Ferris is there pick five,
46:34
Speaker 2: his four quarterbacks went, maybe he'll do it, or maybe
46:37
Speaker 2: he knows something we don't know and he passes on
46:38
Speaker 2: them to take a different receiver. So the drama I
46:41
Speaker 2: do know is real where you know, Marvin Rrison Junior
46:45
Speaker 2: is incredible, but these top three receivers are all incredible
46:49
Speaker 2: in their own way. I think they're all I hate
46:51
Speaker 2: to say it, but it does feel like they're all
46:52
Speaker 2: can't miss guys, right, these three receivers, each one would
46:56
Speaker 2: be a number one pick if they were there in
46:58
Speaker 2: any given draft by themselves. Which thing they all do
47:00
Speaker 2: well the other one doesn't do is great vice versas.
47:03
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be shocked by it, but I would
47:06
Speaker 2: be surprised just because it's like Marvin Harris Junior is
47:10
Speaker 2: ready made. He would have been probably number one receiver
47:13
Speaker 2: drafted last year if he came out into the So
47:17
Speaker 2: the only knock of him is he didn't look like
47:19
Speaker 2: he was trying that hard. Toward the end of the season.
47:21
Speaker 2: There's a couple of things you saw where he looked
47:23
Speaker 2: like he took plays off. Maybe teams got rubbed the
47:25
Speaker 2: wrong way because he was like, I'm not doing it
47:28
Speaker 2: in your you know, cat and mouse game. I'm not
47:30
Speaker 2: playing your guys game getting ready for this combine. I'm
47:32
Speaker 2: doing my own thing. I'm not worried about training for
47:34
Speaker 2: the combat. I'm just training for the upcoming season. So yeah,
47:37
Speaker 2: some teams might take a rubber let him rub it
47:39
Speaker 2: the wrong way. I would not pass on him like
47:41
Speaker 2: this kid feels like, you know, Justin Jefferson two point zero.
47:44
Speaker 2: Like everything he does, he's so smooth, he's got incredible hands,
47:47
Speaker 2: he's a good blocker. I would take him fy then
47:50
Speaker 2: one pick. But people keep seeing it's here, say that
47:53
Speaker 2: a different receiver could go and the number the number
47:55
Speaker 2: one receiver. I don't think it is. I think it's
47:57
Speaker 2: all about the team's preference. And once again. And if
48:00
Speaker 2: it's the Chargers that pick five, har Ball has seen
48:03
Speaker 2: this guy play a ton. If he doesn't like them,
48:04
Speaker 2: he wants to take it there a receiver or maybe
48:07
Speaker 2: you take an offensive lineman, which is really crazy if
48:08
Speaker 2: they pass on our receiver roll together. But yeah, that
48:11
Speaker 2: is possibilit with the Chargers. I just I think that
48:14
Speaker 2: go receiver because it's like, what are they doing for Herbert? Right?
48:16
Speaker 2: They're not gonna give Herbert a weapon here? Like that's
48:18
Speaker 2: that's crazy to me. So yeah, it is crazy where
48:22
Speaker 2: I thought that was not going to happen two months ago,
48:24
Speaker 2: I thought, no doubt Marvin Harris will be the first
48:27
Speaker 2: player position taking off the board now, Chad. But with
48:30
Speaker 2: the trade rumors, we'll see if the air's our trades out,
48:33
Speaker 2: I could see a different team taking a different receiver
48:35
Speaker 2: than number one.
48:36
Speaker 1: It's going to be an exciting few weeks. As a
48:39
Speaker 1: reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by North Carolina's
48:43
Speaker 1: newest sportsbook, BET three six five. Bet three six five
48:46
Speaker 1: doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more boost with
48:48
Speaker 1: them than with anyone else. Every day they pow out
48:51
Speaker 1: the adds one hundreds the best to give you a
48:52
Speaker 1: chance to win more. Bet three six five Boost specific markets,
48:55
Speaker 1: your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there.
48:58
Speaker 1: Keep an eye for their biggest and best odds with
49:00
Speaker 1: the incredible Super Boost. Check out the Boost and see
49:03
Speaker 1: why it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must
49:07
Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
49:13
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older
49:17
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
49:20
Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions
49:23
Speaker 1: apply if you're in North Carolina. Take advantage of the
49:26
Speaker 1: best sign up offers at BET three sixty five and
49:29
Speaker 1: across every sports book. Check out those offers in our
49:34
Speaker 1: episode description page. To celebrate m it will be opening Day,
49:40
Speaker 1: We'll be back Thursday with author Keith O'Brien for a
49:44
Speaker 1: special bonus episode to discuss his new book, Charlie Hustle,
49:47
Speaker 1: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose in the Last
49:49
Speaker 1: Glory Days of Baseball. Lots of stuff to talk about
49:52
Speaker 1: related to betting. Like I said, Keith broke the News
49:55
Speaker 1: Today on Action Network about the investigations in the rows
49:59
Speaker 1: long before, or the investigations we all know about that
50:02
Speaker 1: ultimately hadn't banned from baseball. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts,
50:07
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe, weave as
50:10
Speaker 1: five stars, say what do we want? Feedback as a
50:12
Speaker 1: gift until Thursday. Love You. Action Network reminds you please
50:21
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has
50:25
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven
50:28
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred Gambler