Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/9/26: Iran Launches Massive Strikes, US Bond Crisis Deepens, Bibi Warned Of Oct 7 Week Before

Transcript

9/9/26: Iran Launches Massive Strikes, US Bond Crisis Deepens, Bibi Warned Of Oct 7 Week Before · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: the future of this show.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: together for you every morning in your inbox.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: news media, and we hope to see you at BreakingPoints.com.
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: All right, good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. We
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: promised last week that if enough people signed up for
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: the free month, went to BreakingPoints.com, signed up, that we
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: would cut the rambling much shorter. So let's get immediately
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: into the program. So a bunch of people bought it.
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: You don't want to do that.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Let's do it. Let's put up a zero. Oil hitting
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: $ 100 a barrel overnight.
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Now, interestingly, for $ 100, you can either get a barrel
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: of oil on the open market at this point, or
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: for one year, you can go to BreakingPoints.com.
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: Oh, he was so excited for this one.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Get the show emailed to your inbox, ad-free. Now, if
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: you get the oil, you actually still have to process that.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: This is more of an investment.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: They're both investments. Because if you say you lay out
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: $ 100 of capital, you buy yourself an oil barrel, then
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: you have to process it. But it makes about 45
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: gallons of gasoline. You probably want to turn it into diesel, though,
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: because you're getting a lot more for diesel than you
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: are for gasoline.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: Right. But say Trump swoops in and opens up a
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: Freedom Fuel in your neighborhood. There is no Freedom Fuel
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: equivalent to the BreakingPoints.com premium subscription trial.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And also the liberal government is probably going to
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: swoop in with all sorts of regulations about your home
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: processing facility that's also true.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: So as i don't know maybe that sounds okay to.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Me and to balance it out actually you don't get
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: the barrel of oil for one month free but you
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: do get breaking points in your inbox for one month
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: free so if you go to breakingpoints.com no seriously though
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: the real reason to sign up is it's driving Saga
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: completely insane that so many people are signing up while
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: we do the pitch.
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: Well, you specifically do the pitch. Now, do I get
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: enough credit for being the counter... What is the right
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: word that I'm looking for?
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: The Alan Holmes. Yes, exactly. I'm the Hannity.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: Right, but no, the.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: The Combs or Holmes, anyway.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know. But what is it when someone has their, like,
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: the other person plays, like, the deadpan character I'm not
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: even playing. I never know what he's going to do.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: I never have any idea. All right.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Now we are completely breaking our promise to not ramble.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: So what do we have today? So Trump, there was
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: too much calm. So he reignited what is what has been,
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: you know, perhaps the most kind of ferocious Iranian counterattack
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: by attacking several attacking five Iranian tankers. which he says
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: he did in response to the Iranians targeting some U.S.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: naval ships. We'll get into that. The bond market continues
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: to spiral completely out of control. The efforts that Besant
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: had made to try to stop the Japanese, for instance,
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: from selling off bonds in order to prop up the yen,
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: that seems unsuccessful. Norway is one of our biggest buyers there.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: because Norway has this massive oil wealth that they've turned
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: into sovereign wealth fund. We rely on them to buy
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: a lot of our treasury bonds. They seem to be
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: unwinding a bunch of their positions. We'll get into that.
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: We're going to have updates on the situation in Israel,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: and in particular, this new investigation in a book that
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: ran in Haaretz, there are a number of revelations that
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: we'll get into in it. Uh, like I am a
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: pretty cynical person. I, I was, I was like blown
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: away by some of the, some of what was in there.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Just the, you, you kind of understand it directionally, but
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: stick around. Like it's on the one hand, you're like, okay, yeah,
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: we know this. On the other hand, it's like, no,
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: this is such horrifying behavior on the part of the
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Americans and the Israelis that it is, to me, literally inconceivable.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: Well, you just said the key that's getting buried, the Americans.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: And the Israelis. Yeah, Americans are involved in this too.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: Right. Not a lot of talk right now. I mean,
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: for understandable reasons, because what it says about Netanyahu is
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: just reprehensible. But there are some revelations in the book
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: as well about what we were told ahead of October
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: 7th that we'll get to. Yeah.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: And then the next block on the banner down there
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: is a little misnamed. because it's not actually socialism, but
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: we're going to talk about the Socialism Conference, which I
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: think was a misnamed conference. It's not socialism. Some of
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: the clips out of this conference went viral because they
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: happened to be the moments that were clipped. The entire
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: thing could have gone viral at any moment if you
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: just clipped at any random 30 to 45 seconds. People
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: were mad at me for calling that out, but it's like, look, man,
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: this stuff actually is more important than people give it
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: Credit for that. People's counter argument is ignore this stuff.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: It's just silliness. No, it's not.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: It catches on. It matters. Yeah, it mattered a lot.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: It's why Mamdani, you know, is running a different campaign
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: than he did when he was in state staff.
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: And we'll have an update on what Mamdani himself is
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: up to. We had primaries in New Hampshire last night.
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: We'll talk about that. Plus, the Republicans, for some reason,
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: have decided to launch a giant grift of a convention
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: in Texas, even though it's not. presidential year? They're not
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: going to nominate anybody? They're just going to do a convention?
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: And they don't, I mean, they have a fundraising advantage
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: right now. So it's not like they're desperately strapped for cash.
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: They're going to spend all their money at this convention.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: Absolutely incredible. And then at the end, we're going to
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: be joined by investigative journalist Josh Rushing, whose team at
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: Al Jazeera has spent many months in South America looking
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: at the effects of the American boat strikes across the
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: the region, who they're targeting, what the consequences have been,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: and also who the actual drug traffickers are. So you're
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: going to want to stick around for that.
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely. All right. Well, let's get into it with
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: breaking news from Iran. And there's been no shortage of
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: breaking news from Iran over the last 24 hours. Ryan,
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: where's the best place to begin with this? Because it's almost,
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, we have a zero here. Oil has hit
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: $ 100 a barrel. So this is Brent crude. That's for
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: the first time since July, as NBC says Middle East
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: conflict intensifies again. Quote, the spike came a day after
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: the U.S. military said it destroyed five Iranian tankers in
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: response to attempted missile attacks on a Navy warship. Tehran
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: responded with attacks on U.S. ships and a base in Jordan.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: The latest bout of fighting in a conflict. That remains unresolved. So, well,
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: remains unresolved. Yes, absolutely remains unresolved. Now, we have some
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: video to get to, Ryan, actually.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's put up A2. So the Iranians targeted with
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: their anti-ship ballistic missiles several U.S. Navy ships, which Marco Rubio,
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: and we'll get into this in a second, said would
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: be a red line. And so this is video that
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: CENTCOM put out of the U.S. responding to their naval
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: ships getting attacked by targeting five Iranian tankers, some of
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: them near the Karg Island. And you see in some
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: of these you see oil like immediately. Well, you know,
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: some of the videos are the shadows, the explosions. It
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: appears like you see oil seeping out. I'm not an expert,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: but if you blow up or sink five oil tankers,
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: you're probably going to have some type of ecological calamity
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: going along with it. And so let's roll A3. This
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: was Marco Rubio's explanation for why the U.S. is striking
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: civilian targets inside the Strait of Hormuz.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Can you speak about.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: The U.S.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Strikes on the Iranian tankers and explain what the back
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: and forth has been in the last 24 hours.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the back and forth is pretty straightforward.
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: And that is that Iran continues to try to hit U.S.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: Naval ships. And for every time they do that or
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: try to do that, they're going to lose tankers.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: And I think you'll see that again today. So our position, Emily,
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: correct me if I'm wrong here, is that we can
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: have naval ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but you're
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: not allowed to shoot at them. And if you do,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: we're going to sink your oil tankers, right?
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: It's a very clear and consistent position because we have
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: taken total control of the Strait of Hormuz in winning
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: the war.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: And they have no military.
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: Part of winning the war was destroying their military and claiming,
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: as ours, the Strait of Hormuz, which is why everything
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: is going swimmingly. And you don't have to worry about
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: oil prices.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: Well, hopefully somebody will figure out who it is that
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: launched a counteroffensive. because it certainly couldn't be Iran because
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: Iran's military has been completely obliterated. However, somebody from Iranian
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: territory launched the biggest salvo that we've seen in the
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: past year. We put up A1 here. You can find
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: incredible footage throughout the internet of some of the attacks.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: What you're seeing here is an attack in Jordan in particular.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: And it looks like for the first time in this conflict,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: Iran deployed cluster munitions. And if you look closely, you see,
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: it seems like every battery of Patriot missiles was just
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: unleashed all at once. There were some analysts who were
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: suggesting that the batteries were on kind of automatic fire,
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: like you see a missile, you fire a Patriot missile.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: That might be a good idea if you have limitless
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: numbers of Patriot missiles, and if you're facing conventional ballistic
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: missile attacks. If you're facing a cluster attack where once
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: they come through the atmosphere, you break into submunitions. Now,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden, one missile has become 20 or 50.
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: If you send 50 Patriot missiles, we're talking, what, four
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: or five million dollars apiece for these things. Some estimates
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: were that the U.S. launched 50 Patriots. We're talking hundreds
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: of millions of dollars, but money for the United States
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: is fake. So set the money aside. How long does
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: it take to make a 50 Patriot missiles? Like a year?
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: At this point?
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: And if we're down into well under 1,000, well under
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: 500 even, you know, Patriot missiles, when the third and
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: fourth waves launched, there were reports that there were no
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: Patriot missiles fired, which then raised questions from analysts. Did
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: the batteries themselves get hit and disabled? Or did they
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: shoot everything out? Are they out? It's hard to believe
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: that they're completely out. But for whatever reason, it does
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: seem like a significant number of missiles were intercepted most,
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: but some and some non-trivial number got through.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: Well, this goes to the munitions shortage. The Fox News
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: headline yesterday, Patriot Missile Stockpile Depleted. I mean, U.S. rebuilding
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: weapons stockpile could delay orders from allies. There's just no
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: question anymore that this is obviously a problem. It's why
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: you don't launch the stupid war to begin with. It's
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: why even people inside of the Trump administration who've been
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: very hawkish toward Iran weren't supporting the war, like Marco
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: Rubio himself, or weren't advising the president to go to
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: war in the first place. This was totally foreseeable.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: And it's a really important point, I think, to keep underlining.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: There was no point to this war. There is no
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: point now to this war. The Iranians were, in February,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: offering us a complete end to the program, like inspections,
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: like move the highly enriched uranium, and on and on,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: as well as offering all sorts of other concessions. Plus,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz was open and free. That wasn't
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: even on the table last February. At this point, they're
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: still saying they have no interest in a nuclear program,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: would agree to not pursue a nuclear weapon, and they
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: want you to pay a little toll to get through
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz. So what? That would add a tiny,
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: tiny amount to what it costs for a barrel. If
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: a barrel of oil is $ 60 and you add like
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: a buck to it to get it through the Strait
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: of Hormuz, I'm going to do some math here, that'd
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: be $ 61 a barrel. Currently it's $ 100 a barrel. What's
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: better for the United States?
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: Which would you rather pay?
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: What would you rather have?
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: Which one's more expensive?
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: I think the $ 100. I think the Hunter is more expensive.
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: Speaking of, I mean, you already said well that money
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: is fake in the United States, but we should also
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: get to this sub, A4. This is footage from the
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: Iranians of a captured submarine drone that appears very clearly
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: to be an Anduril drone, $ 2. 5 million. I think it's
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: $ 2. 5 million a pop, right, Ryan? Anduril drone. But that
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: actually sounds low to me, and it's because Anduril is
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: one of the few defense contractors that doesn't work off
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: existing contracts, creates the product, and then sells it to
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: the government. So a slightly less expensive drone, nevertheless captured
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: by the Iranians in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. It
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: may have been doing like mine sweeps, that type of thing.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they claim that there was some complex ambush where
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: they lured this little underwater robot into a trap.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: Come here, buddy.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: And then walked away with it. We don't know yet.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: The U.S.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: Says it was defective, right? That it had some defect somewhere.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: That it just, yeah, just started floating somewhere.
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: And they haven't yet confirmed it was the angel drone,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: but obviously.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: The footage exists. Yeah, and they said it was an
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: older version. She's like, of course, yeah, of course they
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: would say it's an older version. But yeah, just one
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: humiliation after another. Keeps coming.
• 14:36
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: Now let's put up A6. This is from the IRGC,
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: which is telling tanker crews in Kuwait and Bahrain to
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: abandon their vessels because they will be targeted. What do
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: you make of that, Ryan?
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: So interestingly, they have not done this yet. So the
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: IRGC told everybody on a civilian oil tanker in the
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz, whether you were at anchor or whether
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: you were at port, to evacuate immediately because they considered
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: the tankers owned by Kuwait, Bahrain, or any other ally
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: of the United States to be fair game after the U.S.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: attacked their five tankers. They didn't do that, interestingly, yet.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: So maybe they still will. Instead, they focused on U.S.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: military targets throughout the region.
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: I feel like I'm going crazy because as we were
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: prepping the show last night, I was going to the
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: New York Times, Washington Post, CNN to look at the
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: breaking news. And on the New York Times and the
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: Washington Post, if you scroll, you didn't see any updates
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: as this was happening in the Middle East until you
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: scrolled beneath the quote unquote fold of their homepages, which
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: it's insane that this is happening and there's no breaking
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: news on the front pages, but that's not the biggest story.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: The biggest story to me or what that tells me
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: is it's amazing how this chaos is unfolding in the
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: Middle East and oil prices are spiking and so many
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: people here in Washington are just going about business as usual.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: It's insane that we didn't, I don't know about you,
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: I'm surprised that there haven't been reported Civilian deaths from
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: the US and US allies unless I pissed them over
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: the clock the past 48 hours.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we may find out in in the next
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: day or two that there were significant Casualties, you know
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: killed or wounded on the American side from the attacks
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: on these bases.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: Mm-hmm It's hard to believe.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: There's this level of ballistic missile attack with several of
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: them getting through in a desert base and It's difficult
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: to perfectly protect all of your personnel. But it does
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: feel like the media is kind of over it.
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: I know.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: It does. We did the MOU. Aren't we done with
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: that at this point? But this was the biggest exchange
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: of fire in.
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: Since the beginning of the war, right?
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: Basically since the beginning of the war. What it also
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: showed very interestingly to me is that Iran responded immediately.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: It used to be back in the previous Ayatollah days
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: that there would be this extraordinarily deliberate process. So the U.S.
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: would do something or Israel would do something. People coming
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: up with plans, people debating, then people pitching security counsel.
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: And then eventually you get to a decision and then
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: eventually there's a response. Now they clearly have a kind
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: of battery of responses ready. like an if-then situation. Like
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: if they hit oil tankers, then immediately.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: Flip the switch.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: Because this attack came from all throughout Iran, which means
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: they had to coordinate from the north to the south
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: that we're launching at this moment. And they did it
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: very quickly after the tankers were hit, and they did
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: it with strategic precision aimed at particular areas. Mm-hmm. And
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: even now they can't have the announcements. The point of
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: saying this is to contrast it with what the American
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: people have been told, both in on the record, under
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: oath testimony on Capitol Hill, that the Iranian military basically
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: doesn't exist anymore.
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: And that they are completely defeated and that they're almost
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: out of missiles. And it seems like they have unless
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: they're putting forward some massive bluff, they have very little
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: concern about running out of missiles. They launched an extraordinary
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: amount of ballistic missiles over the last 24 hours. Back
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: in April, Maz Hussein tweeted this. He highlighted this testimony
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: that a U.S. commander had given. He said they're basically
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: out of ballistic missiles and they can fire one or
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: two at a time from now on. But the days
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: when they can launch These salvos and these waves of
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: ballistic missiles, those are behind us because we have so
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: thoroughly degraded their stockpiles and their production capacity. He said that.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: If he believed it, that's almost worse than that he
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: was just lying to the public under oath. Because that
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: is not at all what we saw the last 24 hours.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: But you continue to go to war not knowing your enemy,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: you're going to continue to just get whacked.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: Well, economic D-Day continues apace. We can put this next
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: element up on the screen from The Washington Post. A7, U.S.
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: places sanctions on dozens of Iranian airlines as conflict escalates.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: The Post is reporting. that Besant placed sanctions on more
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: than two dozen Iranian airlines and their service providers as
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: part of an ongoing effort to choke Tehran off from
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: the global economy. They say they're the latest in the
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: admin's operation economic outcasts. where they're hoping to pressure Iran
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: into a deal to end the Iran war. It adds
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: to years of such measures against the Iranian government, aiming
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: to cut off any remaining supply lines that support Iran's economy, government,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: or nuclear program. Ryan, these don't seem that significant.
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: I would disagree. Okay, hit me. I mean, what they're
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: trying to do... So there are obviously three ways that...
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: that imports and exports are going in and out of Iran.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: You've got the Strait of Hormuz, you've got the massive
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: land borders, rail lines, cars, motorcycles, everything that goes in
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: over the land borders. And then quite significantly, you have
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: the air traffic, both passenger, but also importantly, imports and exports.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: And by sanctioning every single airline, what they're trying to
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: do is make it so that any supplier or manufacturer
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: who was doing some business with Iran is not willing
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: to have its company associated with this airline because then
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: they get sanctioned themselves. Or that any other airport that
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: is operating in cooperation with these Iranian airlines is also
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: themselves then getting sanctioned. And it is causing some non-trivial
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: disruptions of air travel in and out of Iran. Now,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: where I would agree with you is that it has
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: nothing to do with the war and whether or not
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: we're going to win it. Somebody made a good point
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: the other day.
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: Right, that it's not going to squeeze the Iranian economy
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: to a point of capitulation.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: Right, because if you think about inflation as a concept,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: inflation is a policy tool that brings about rationing. Just
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: understand inflation as rationing. because now you've raised the price
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: of everything, people can afford less. And so if you
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: had a certain amount of, let's say you want to
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: ration beef, inflating the price super high gets it to
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: the place where fewer people are buying it, and then
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: you're rationing it out to people. And so in wartime,
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: almost every government puts forward some form of rationing. And
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: the public understands that as well, whether that's us in
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: World War I or World War II or Germany in
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: World War II, they were eating grass by the end
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: of the South during the Civil War in the U.S.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: It was tragically starving by the end of the Civil War.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: They ate a camel.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: Yes, it was, yes. And so now what Iran gets
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: is they get the wartime rationing policy that every government needs,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: but they also get to blame the United States for it.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: which is a nice little propaganda gift for them. But
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: if you think about the history of warfare, correct me
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: if I'm wrong, I cannot think of a single country
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: that has ever surrendered because it had to ration food
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: and supplies and material for its civilian population. I can
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: think of cities... in like biblical times and medieval times
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: that were like starved until they capitulated to like till
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: the hunt or whatever outside of their gates. But that's,
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: that's different than things are, things are worse during wartime
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: than they were during peacetime. And so therefore we surrender.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: Like I, I can't think of a single example of
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: that ever happening.
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: This is, and you would think also, by the way,
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: this would have already happened if it was that significant,
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: because again, we're in a war. And if it is
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: as existential as the Trump administration claims, I guess it's
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: sort of unfathomable that you would have not sanctioned all
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: of this if it's so significant up until this point.
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: That makes very little sense.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: It's 27 airlines.
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: It's Yeah. They say that they also sanctioned intermediaries that
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: were allowing the Iranians to get jets for the IRGC
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: through Oman and I think the UAE over the course
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: of the summer. So that's, I guess, what they're looking
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: at now. Yeah.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: And meanwhile, a friend of the show, Saeed Mohammed Rondi,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: saying that, hey, maybe we'll now maybe we can share
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: this this Andoril thing with our Chinese and Russian friends, suckers.
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: We will see. More bond market chaos, no surprise to
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: Breaking Point's viewers, but let's put B1 up on the screen.
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: This is Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ghalibov, saying, wheels up,
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: warm-ups before liftoff, diesel ATH, short it, your biggest creditor dumping,
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: good luck with yentervention, NOR cutting $ 80 billion, rename Norway
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: to America Way. Oh, he said, NOR is NOR, we're
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: going to get to that in just one moment, but
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: low recruitment debt to service with DOWs. for your puppeteers,
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: but he also put Israel in brackets. Oh, Fed's dot
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: plot flashing red. So some trolling here from Golibov, Ryan.
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: What do you make of that?
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, these are always fun to go through. Golibov is
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: quite a character. He's been trying to be president of
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: Iran for his whole life, basically.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: Same.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: The public's been like, yeah, you're kind of cool, but
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know about presidential material. But I think they're
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: loving the role that he's playing at this point. He
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: was also the guy. Do you remember when the Lebanese
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: and Israelis said no Iranian officials can come to Lebanon?
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: And if they do, we're going to shoot their plane
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: out of the sky. And Ghalibaf, who is himself a pilot,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: like himself piloted the plane to Lebanon. And they filmed
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: him landing the plane himself.
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: He's their Sully.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: He is. So their Speaker of the Parliament, this is
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: a year or two ago or something. It was fairly recently.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: Google and find this. So he's a character. They did
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: not shoot him out of the sky. He landed the
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: plane successfully and took it off. That takes some stones.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: The chance you're going to get shot down there is
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: non-trivial in that moment. Okay, so what's he say here?
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: Warm-ups before liftoff. So this is a reference to Scott
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: Besson telling the global economy, public that the American economy
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: is in the phase of liftoff. Like we are just
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: get out of the way because the U S economy
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: is absolutely surging lookout. So he says, diesel ATH means
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: all time high, a little, which was almost $ 6 a
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: gallon for diesel at this point, which is the lifeblood
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: of kind of an industrial economy in the United States.
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: Your biggest creditor dumping. Good luck with Yentervention. So Yentervention
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: is a reference to, and maybe we have an element
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: we'll throw up here.
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is B2.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: Put up B2. The Yentervention was when Besant threw a
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: bunch of American money at the Japanese central bank to
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: try to prop up the Japanese yen because, as we
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: said at the time, he was afraid that if we
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: didn't prop up the yen, then Japan would intervene itself
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: to prop it up. And the way that Japan would
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: get the capital to prop it up would be by
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: selling treasuries. So we threw billions of dollars at it.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: That money blew away in the breeze, didn't work. And
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: so exactly as Besant feared, it appears that Iran, I mean,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: Japan is now selling a bunch of its treasuries to
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: get its own cash to prop up its economy, which
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: itself is is being battered by high oil prices, high
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: energy prices, which is fueling inflation. The inflation is battering
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: their currency. So it's the war that is doing all
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: of it. Then he says, Norway cutting $ 80 billion, rename
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: Norway to America way. So Norway, because of its sovereign
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: wealth fund is one of the most significant holders of
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: US treasuries. And over the past, what, weeks, months, their
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: holdings and treasuries have declined by roughly $ 80 billion. We're
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: talking about trillions of dollars in total debt, but if
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: the biggest holders of the debt are moving away from
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: it in a significant way, this ends up mattering. Then
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: low recruitment. Recruitment means how many buyers you can get
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: at your auctions. And that And the amount of buyers
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: that you can get at your treasury auctions then converts
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: into what kind of interest rate you have to pay.
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: He's bragging about our high debt to service ratio that
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: we are paying. And he may be alluding here to
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: the fact that the amount we're paying to service our
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: debt is almost equivalent now to what we're paying for
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: our entire Department of War, which he calls the Department
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: of Israel's war. And again, he would be correct. And
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: then finally, he says, oh, Fed's dot plot flashing red.
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: The dot plot is the prediction that the central bankers
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: on the Federal Open Market Committee make every meeting where
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: they say, we think next time inflation is going to
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: be this and our policy is going to be this.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: And if the dots are red, it's because they're higher.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: And That is the expectation. Like the expectation over the
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: last several weeks has moved from kind of neutral to
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: actually there's probably going to be a rate hike. So
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: everything is going wrong for the U.S. and the global economy.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: And slowly and gobbledygook making fun of the idea that
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: wheels up and just just just about to be lift off.
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: The signs of. Well, yeah, here let's put before up
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: on the screen because Ryan mentioned that this is from
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: Fortune U.S. debt. is even worse than it seems, and
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: rising treasury yields are now in, quote, all hands on
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: deck situation, top economist warns. This was from Robin Brooks,
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: the senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who said U.S.
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: policy is now focused on preventing long-term borrowing costs from
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: shooting higher and pointed to Besson's efforts to double debt buybacks,
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: that reassured markets on his inflation-fighting credibility. That's a hell
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: of a decision coming down this week, right, Ryan? There's a, yeah,
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: the Fed meeting this week. Brooks added that economic data
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: releases that indicate weaker activity have failed to bring down
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: long-term yields, unlike the historical pattern revealing how much upward
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: pressure is coming from the market.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: And it's apparent- Actually next week, next Wednesday.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: Oh, it's next Wednesday. Apparent, all signs right now, not
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: all signs, but many significant signs are pointing towards a
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: potential catastrophe global economic catastrophe happening in the not-so-distant future.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: Yes, and Trump recently warned the Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh,
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: if you don't cut rates, I am going to cut
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: off trade with the entire world, with everybody who has
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: a trade surplus with us, which will spark a recession,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: which would then force you to cut rates. Right. I will.
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: I will drive, I will turn this car around unless
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: you immediately cut rates.
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: I will immiserate the American people unless you slightly less
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: immiserate the American people.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: And did we throw out B3?
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I think we did. The Kobisi letter.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: Let's put it up again, though.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: What a mess.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: What an absolute mess.
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, take a look at this chart. This is negative
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: long-run returns on 15-year treasuries. That's brutal. That's brutal. This
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: goes back to 1936.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: So the people who had faith in our debt and
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: held it as a store of their wealth are falling
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: further behind.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: The people, the funds.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And so analysts and regular people and people in
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: their 401ks or whatever who are like holding this because,
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: you know, it's still safe. We're still paying it off.
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: But it's not the investment that it has been.
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: Well, and interestingly, now I'm seeing some people on the
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: right point to the debt-to-wealth ratio, which it's true. The
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: United States' wealth actually still does dwarf the debt, but
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: it's somewhat amusing to hear that from the debt hawks
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: who have been pushing for austerity for the last 10
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: to 15 years.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: It's a funny comparison because the wealthy hold most of
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: the debt. So that's a funny... Well, but also U.S.
• 33:21
  Speaker 6: Assets.
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Like government assets, land, those sorts of things.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah. But they hold the treasuries themselves, too.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: Amazing.
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: Amazing.
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: Let's get to this wild report out of Haaretz, a
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: true bombshell, about what the Israeli government and the American
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: government knew out of October 7th.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Bombshell new reporting from Israel's largest paper, Haaretz. We can
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: put this element up on the screen. This comes from
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: a new book out by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Uvault. Now,
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: the UAE is out with a statement yesterday effectively confirming
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: the bulk of the reporting that we're going to go
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: through that is included in this excerpt in the paper.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: So bear that in mind. Netanyahu has himself denied it,
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: but the reporting includes so many firsthand reports participants in
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: the activity that combined with the UAE statement makes it
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: very hard to give any credit to the idea that
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: this is somehow fabricated or made up. So with that
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: being said, let's roll through some of the revelations here
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: and put up C1B here. So just to, I'll just
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: read from this. So in September, 2023, just before the
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: die was cast, Yahya Sinwar arranged a private meeting with
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: Fatah official Kol Aiz. So Kol Aiz is sort of
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: like a deep throat name that they're giving to a
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: source of theirs.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: Quote, who was a go-between.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: Yes, this is a go-between. This is a, basically an
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: associate of Sinwar's. Quote, tell the Israelis that that if
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: they don't make progress, I'm preparing a huge surprise for them. Here,
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: he dropped a key word for the first time, one
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: that should have triggered red flags. Quote, tell them to
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: expect a zilzal, an earthquake. Kolai's left the conversation shaken.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: He decided to consult a close friend, the same Palestinian
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: who had emigrated from Gaza to Abu Dhabi and served
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: as a close advisor to Mohammed bin Zayed, who was
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: basically the ruler of the UAE. And so the reporters
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: also spoke with this other Palestinian who talked to MBZ.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: So what is he talking about? Tell the Israelis that
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: if they don't make progress, I'm preparing a huge surprise
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: for them. Starting in early 2023, according to this reporting,
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: and we also know some of this has made it
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: into the public as well, Sinwar and Netanyahu were engaged
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: in negotiations about a long-term truce. and what the contours
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: of that would look like. Senwar wanted some people released
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: from Israeli detention, started with 500. By the time they
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: were near agreement, it was down to, I think, 30
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: and 20 people with life sentences. He wanted kind of
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: these free trade zones around Gaza.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: Opportunity zones.
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: Opportunity zones, basically, so that there could be investment and jobs.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: for Palestinians in Gaza. And he wanted a lifting of
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: the restrictions so that materials and other things and food
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: could get it. Like, you know, we've talked about this before.
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: They're banning things like Oreos.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: He's like, just let us.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: Under the guise that they could be used to make.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: That sugar could be refined to make some type of
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: explosive or something. Yeah. And so what it goes into
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: the Sinhwar's kind of philosophy, which was twofold, that he
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: was pursuing two things at once. One, he was investing
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: heavily in the tunnel infrastructure and in the military preparedness
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: to make them a formidable adversary of Israel. Two, he
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: kept telling all of his lieutenants and as many people
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: as would listen, hey, every time we have entered into conflict,
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: with Israel. We may have emerged with some moral victories,
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: but we have been defeated militarily every single time. It's
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: catastrophic for us, whether it's 2014, whether it's 2021, 2009.
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: The number of casualties, civilian and military, on the Palestinian
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: side are always absolutely paled in comparison.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: So Sinwar, post-Abraham Accords, genuinely willing to cut a deal,
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: is your point.
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: So he was saying, like, look, if we can get
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: a deal, that's better than going back to war because,
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: let's be honest, no matter how well prepared we are,
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: we're going to lose this war. That was his analysis.
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: Which, by the way, if the Trump administration, or I'm sorry,
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: it would have been the Biden administration, but if the
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: Biden administration at the time was aware of that and
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: they were talking about building on Trump's Abraham Accords, that
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: would be a W that they threw away.
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and McGurk himself was, this is his entire thing.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: And so, According to this reporting, they basically come to
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: a deal. The deal is in place. And Netanyahu just
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: continues refusing to just sign it, to take it to
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: his coalition and say, this is what we're doing. At
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: the time, Netanyahu is fighting with the judiciary because he's
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: got this corruption case going on. He's trying to basically
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: take over the judiciary. There's protests going on throughout Israel.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: Settler violence is ramping up in the West Bank. And
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: also in East Jerusalem, they're trying to evict a whole
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: bunch of Palestinians, which leads to the 2021 war. So
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of chaos. going on that Netanyahu is fueling,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: all of it. And he just is refusing to just
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: finalize the thing. And so Stenoir sends this message. If
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: you don't, like, look, we've been doing this for a year.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: We have a deal on the table. If you don't
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: do it, quote, I have a surprise for you. And
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: he says, tell the Israelis. So his aide talks to
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: his friend who he knows is right hand man of MBZ. MBZ, interestingly,
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: hears this information. He's like, are you sure? Right.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: According to this report.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: Right, right, right. And he says, and. UAE is not
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: denying this at all and confirmed it in general terms.
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: The sourcing is apparently excellent for this book as well.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: It's really impressive.
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: It's multiple sources.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: It's really impressive. And so MBZ says to him, go
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: back to him because I don't want to go to
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Israel and tell them that Sinwar is preparing to go
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: to war with them if that's not 100% true. Because
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: if I do that, Israel might launch a preemptive attack.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: And that will disrupt the balance. And then I'm responding.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: The UAE, they are good to launch their own wars
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: in Yemen or Sudan. But they prefer stability. That's better
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: for business. So the guy goes back to Sidmar. And
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: this part's wild. So reading again. The Emirati ruler thought
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: it over. Uncertain. He was troubled by the possibility that
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: amid the regional tensions... The mere warning about Hamas' intentions
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: to start a war could ignite the flames, perhaps with
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: a preemptive strike by Israel. To understand the seriousness of
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: Sinwar's threat, Cole Eyes was asked to hold another meeting
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: with him in Gaza. The meeting took place in mid-September 2023. Well,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: Sinwar asked, did you convey the message to the Israelis? No,
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: the mediator replied. Sinwar took a deep breath and in
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: a chillingly quiet voice told him, quote, Convey a message
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: to them that I am preparing the mother of all surprises,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: a terrifying operation, something extraordinary. Again, he rolled the word zilzal, earthquake,
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: on his tongue. Quote, please convey to the Israelis what
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: I am saying word for word, he demanded. So he
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: goes back to MBZ. The guy called him MBZ. He's like, oh, okay.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: He's deadly serious. So the UAE tells Shin Bet. They
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: tell Mossad.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: Coal Eyes was trusted by Shin Bet, according to this report.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: And on September 15th, they convene a meeting about this.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: And they decide, not a big deal. Not really doing anything.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: I mean... MPZ hears that. It's like, are you serious?
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: So then he calls Netanyahu directly, has a 45-minute talk
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: directly with Netanyahu when he realizes that they're not taking
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: seriously what he's telling them.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: And again, the Israelis are denying this vehemently. But the
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: nut graph in this entire long story is some 10
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: days before Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, Prime Minister
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: Benjamin Netanyahu was personally warned by the leader of the
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: UAE that Hamas was planning a major offensive move against Israel,
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: but did not update Israeli security leaders and did nothing
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: with the information, according to this report. Now, just to
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: be clear about their sourcing, the book is called Kidnapped,
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: 843 Days of Abandonment. It's based on interviews with dozens
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: of sources, including senior officials in Israel and around the world.
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: It said three senior foreign officials were updated on the
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: contents of the 45-minute phone call at the end of September,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: and it cited a Palestinian advisor to Emirati President Mbisi,
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: who emigrated from Gaza to the UAE and had direct
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: knowledge of the conversation. So this is three senior officials.
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: as sources who are not just saying a phone call
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: happened or a conversation happened. They're saying it was specifically
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: a 45-minute phone call exactly at this time at the
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: end of September. And they have a very detailed timeline
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: going up to that point of October 7th about all
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: of these contacts that were made. It is unfathomable that
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: this is all fabricated.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: And people are trying to put all this on Netanyahu.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: And obviously, Netanyahu is deserves an enormous amount of criticism
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: for everything.
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: We'll get into that in a moment.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: But the Shin Bet was told also.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: The Shin Bet officials in this article are saying, we
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: wish Netanyahu would have told us that MBZ called him
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: because then we would have taken Cole Eyes' warnings more seriously.
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: Sure.
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: Which is, like, get out of here. Like, okay, yes,
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: obviously Netanyahu should have relayed MBZ's information. And we can
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: talk about, speculate about why he didn't do it. But
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: that does not mean that the rest of the security
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: apparatus was not aware of these warnings. They were aware
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: of the warnings. They also ignored them. More to the point,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: the Nova rave. 200 plus young people killed. taken hostage
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: from that rave, which was supposed to be somewhere else,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: nowhere near Gaza. Very late in the process, they move
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: it right next to the Gaza envelope.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: I forgot about that.
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: It was supposed to end on Friday, October 6th. As
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: with all festivals, everybody's having a good time. They want
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: to keep going. And so they appeal to the IDF.
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: to let them go until Saturday, October 7th. The IDF
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: allows that after having them overruling kind of local folks
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: who were like, rave is not a good idea to
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: have the rave here. They overruled them, allow them to
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: have it right next to God's envelope. And then they
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: let them extend it to October 7th, knowing that on
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: September 15th, they'd had this giant meeting about this warning.
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: Netanyahu himself warned days later directly by The Egyptian intelligence
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: warned them that something huge was coming. The female IDF
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: soldiers outside of Gaza were calling in saying there's something
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: major happening. I even tweeted a reporter of ours who
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: was in Gaza. I remember, I believe it was October 4th.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: People can look at, go find it on my Twitter timeline.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: He said, flagged a whole bunch of balloons that Hamas
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: was releasing over the fence on October 4th. And I
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: remember posting on that about that on Twitter saying, this
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: is really interesting.
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: Surveillance.
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what is going, what is this? Who knows what
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: this is? Testing something? So even in Washington, D.C., like,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: I was noticing things. I don't know what it was,
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: but like, so with all of that happening, they approve
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: the rave moving to the Gaza envelope. If I were
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: a family member or a parent of, or a friend
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: of one of those people. I mean, I'm livid about it.
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: I didn't know anybody there. Well, I know people, know
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: people who were there to, to have such a callous
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: disregard for the lives of your own citizens. And also
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: people from other countries who were come, who were coming
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: to this rave. Uh, knowing that these threats exist, it,
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: I understand why people hearing this are like, they, they,
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: they've sacrificed them.
• 47:49
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: Disregard. I don't, I, I can't get my mind to
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: that place because it's such an inconceivable thing.
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: But I understand why people are like, yeah, they, they
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: didn't care.
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: I was going to say disregard might be too charitable
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: a word, and we're going to get into that in
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: just one moment. But I also wanted to spend some time,
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: as you and I were discussing, about the United States
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: and the revelations about the United States, or at least
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: the reporting about the United States in this. The reporters
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: say the Emirati ruler would later recount the conversation he
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: had with Netanyahu. And guess what? The warning he also
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: relayed to CIA Director William J.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: Burns.
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: Ben Zayed shared with Burns the sense he tried to
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: convey to Netanyahu that, quote, something there is about to
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: explode and told him that the Israeli prime minister believed
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: the volatile area was, in fact, the West Bank. So
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: that's also part of this report. Netanyahu, just to get
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: to how specific the report is about the contents of
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: this conversation, deflects when MBZ is telling him Something's going
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: to happen coming out of Gaza. He says, we're much
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: more worried about the West Bank. We're not particularly concerned
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: about Gaza. So apparently our CIA was warned directly by MBZ.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: And Americans were among the people kidnapped and slaughtered on
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: October 7th.
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: Yes, indeed. And there was also the battle plan that
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: Israel had gotten its hands on. It was called Jericho.
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: A year earlier, they had gotten they had obtained documents
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: that laid out what the what the assault was going
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: to look like which military facilities would be targeted how
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: it would be done and i think the number of
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: like hostages taken was like exactly what they'd forecast like
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: the the precision of of the plan and the actual,
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: the execution of the attack are remarkable. And the Israelis had, like,
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: literally had the document. They had the entire thing. And
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: then they start seeing everything line up. And they, not
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: only do they do nothing, they move people, as Netanyahu said,
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: move people from Gaza to the West Bank and move
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: civilians with this party right next to Gaza. And having
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: that civilian festival right there mm-hmm where people then get
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: slaughtered and then you have all of these images coming
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: out of it of Half-naked young people because it's a
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: rave that ends up shaping the tenor of the of
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: the coverage Which then leads to this conversation about sexual
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: violence if you attack a rave in the morning It's
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: what that's what you're going to find and all of
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: the evidence that we have is that the attackers are
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: this is not to excuse attacking civilians or taking civilians hostage,
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: were startled by the appearance of this rave, which you
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: can understand because it's like they're rolling through the desert
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: and all of a sudden there's hundreds of people dancing
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: to music at 6 a.m.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: And it wouldn't surprise me if there were higher levels
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: of Hamas that were fully aware of what was happening there.
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: Certainly maybe the balloons could see or like something, but like...
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: there was nothing in the plans that Israel captured. Well,
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: certainly nothing about systemic sexual assault. Like there was nothing
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: in the plan. They have the entire plan. There's nothing
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: in there saying we're going to use sexual assault to
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: terrorize the public, which is the, which is the claim.
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: No evidence of that. And there's nothing about we're going
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: to attack a rave and take civilians hostage from there.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: So then we get to the hostages, which is the
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: other shocking revelation in this. So it's been known through
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: reporting in Dropsite and elsewhere, reported immediately. I mean, Dropsite
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: didn't exist yet, actually, until 2024, but the reporters associated
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: with Dropsite and others reported that immediately after the attacks,
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: Hamas was trying to release significant numbers of the civilian hostages.
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: And to be precise, when Sinoir says civilians, he means
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: people under 18 or 18 and under and 50 and up.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: And so while... And that's not everybody's definition of a civilian.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: So he's saying if you're a 45-year-old man and you
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: were a part of the security at the kibbutz, you
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: are a prisoner, not a hostage, and you're going to
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: be traded. But what do you... So when... when Sinoir
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: is referring to civilians throughout the rest of this conversation,
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: understand what he means. People 50 and up and people
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: 18 and under. So they wind up with a lot more,
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: according to, you know, if you compare the plans to
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: the execution, they wind up with a lot more, quote unquote, civilians,
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: children and the elderly. Yeah, they went crazy.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: These kibbutzes at the festival, they went crazy.
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: And also a number of other militias that were, uh,
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: not Hamas participated and grabbed hostages. And also some quote unquote,
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: you know, Palestinian civilians grabbed hostages. Like it was just
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: absolute bedlam. The fences down, the fences down people are, uh, it's,
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: it's chaos. And so the Emir of Qatar immediately tells Hamas,
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: release the civilian hostages immediately and, or I'm going to
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: kick Hamas out of Doha. Like, this is outrageous. Hamas
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: immediately responds, done. We don't, like, this is not, because
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: they were, they understand that there's propaganda and public relations
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: where you can set aside all morality. We're not talking
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: about who are good people or who are bad people here.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: Just from a pure PR perspective, it looks terrible. to
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: be dragging women and their babies into activity.
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: Well, if they want a deal, it's wildly unhelpful to
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: that goal. If they were still expecting that this would
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: pressure Israel to cut this deal on prisoners and economic
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: freedom zones, you're not going to get it this way.
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: Right, and so they say, yes, we will give all
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: of the civilians back immediately, and we want nothing in return.
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: What we need is a mediator. to set up the
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: arrangement to hand them over. At this point, the bombs
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: are everywhere. We know what happened when three Israeli hostages
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: did escape and were trying to make their way out
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: of Gaza. They ran into Israeli forces that killed them.
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: It's just, it's not safe. People are like, well, why
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: didn't they just release them? It's not, it's not exactly
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: safe to take a mother and a child or something.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: And on the evening of October 7th to go, but no,
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: you need like, you call the Red Cross. And the
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: Red Cross sends a van, picks them up and takes
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: them out. And so Hamas was saying, send a mediator.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: We'll set up the process and we'll turn over all
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: of these civilian hostages. And then after that, we will
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: enter into negotiations where we exchange the military and security
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: figures that we have for Palestinians who are in Israeli detention.
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: And we'll reach... And we'll reach a deal at that point.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: The Israelis straight up refuse to even entertain this.
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: According to this new report.
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: According to this new reporting. So then the emir of Qatar, frustrated,
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: he's stunned. He's talking to an Israeli who's a friend
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: of his. And he's shocked. He's like, they don't even
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: want to, they won't take their hostages back. Mm-hmm. So
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: he calls Blinken. So we can read this. This is C1C.
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: So Al Thani, this is Amir Katar. Al Thani did
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: not give up. He called U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Listen,
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: he told him. There are hundreds of hostages in Gaza
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: and among them, in my estimation, dozens of civilians. They
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: need to be released now. I offered the Israelis to
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: mediate a quick deal for their release. but they are
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: not interested. Blinken informed Al Thani that he planned to
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: fly to Israel within three days. Quote, let's wait, he
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: reassured him. I will speak with Netanyahu personally. Al Thani
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: pressed on. You know that time is an important factor.
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: We need to act now. Blinken stopped him. Quote, right now,
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: the situation is complex. Israel is still under attack and
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: there's no one to talk to. We will wait three days.
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: Not only were there Israelis in custody, in Hamas custody then,
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: there were Americans too.
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Yep.
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: Including some who were killed in captivity and who could
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: have been released. Blinken is underestimating. Blinken, listen to what
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: he said. He says, there's no one to talk to.
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: Israel is still under attack and there's no one to
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: talk to. That is, the idea that there's no one
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: to talk to is only true if you don't recognize
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: that there are humans on both sides of this conversation.
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: There obviously are people to talk to. There are people
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: who are like, we have these civilians, we want to
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: release them for nothing, immediately. And he says no. He
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: didn't fly to Israel in three days. It took him
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: six days. And then when he got there, Netanyahu still
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: was not interested and in this. He then goes to Doha.
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: The Qataris pressure Blinken again. So then Blinken then says, okay,
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: I'll reach out to Netanyahu. And then they very slowly
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: enter into some agreement to start some sort of conversation.
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: But at this point, Israel has now been bombing Gaza relentlessly.
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: And And their genocidal rhetoric is completely ramped up. I've
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: seen people say, criticize people. I think it was like,
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: I forget who it was. Somebody, because by October 14th,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: Roz Siegel, I think it was, October 14th was like,
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: this could be a genocide. Well-regarded genocide scholar, Jewish, American.
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: He was basing that partly on all of the genocidal
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: statements that were coming out of the Israeli government. We're
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: going to cut off food. We're going to kill them all.
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: We're going to... destroy the entire place. William Burns, you
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: mentioned him, the former CIA director, he sums it up brutally.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: In this article, he says, quote, the basic problem was
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: that Hamas was looking for a permanent end to the conflict,
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: as they called it. Netanyahu was only willing to consider
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: a first phase deal, but claimed he had to constantly
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: reserve the option to continue destroying Hamas later, as he
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: defined it. And that, for us, was always the challenge.
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: How do we square the circle and manage to bring
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: everyone back? Which just flips everything on its head here.
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: According to the CIA, Hamas wants a permanent end to
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: this conflict.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: But Israel does not. Yep.
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: I literally, as we were talking, just put in a
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: comment request with the CIA about this, because there were...
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: It should boil people's blood. And given how many civilians
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: were affected by this and given the specificity of this
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: report about what was being conveyed behind the scenes, it's
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: pretty clear. To your point, Ryan, even publicly available information
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: was starting to suggest that something was perhaps brewing, which
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: means privately this is in line with what you would
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: expect to have been happening behind the scenes. Now, It's
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: really important, I think, for us to roll this Charlie
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: Kirk clip with Patrick Bet-David from October of 2023, because
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: in the immediate aftermath of what happened on October 7th,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: questions were being raised. And this is, as elections are
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: coming up, perhaps Netanyahu's biggest political liability, Likud's biggest political liability,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: is obviously this report rattling Israeli politics right now is
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: rank incompetence at the very least. Yeah, October 27th. At
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: the very least, what you see here is rank abject
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: incompetence in the Netanyahu government at very best. But the
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: other questions this raises go back to questions that were
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: already being raised by people who were supportive of Israel,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: including Charlie Kirk, previously supportive of Netanyahu and Likud in October.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: That's how obvious some of these questions have been for years.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: And now that we're coming up on the three-year anniversary.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: And so just going to toss the clip and bear
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: in mind, this is already October of 2023. So long
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: before we know what's in this Haratz report, here's Charlie
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: with Patrick Bed-David.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: If we go dark, I'll put all those things out there.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: How did these guys not know this was taking place?
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: So I've been to Israel many times. The whole country
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 5: is a fortress. When I first heard this story, I
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: still had the same gut instinct that I did initially.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: I find this very hard to believe. I've been to
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: that Gaza border. You cannot go 10 feet without running
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: into a 19-year-old with an AR-15 or an automatic machine
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: gun that is an IDF soldier. The whole country is surveilled.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: And so let me just kind of go through this.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: We don't talk about Israeli politics very often, and most
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: Americans don't know this. The last nine months, Israel was
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 5: on the brink of civil war. It's not an exaggeration.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: This judicial stuff, there were hundreds of thousands of Israelis
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: taking to the streets because Bibi Netanyahu was basically redefining
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 5: the Israeli constitution. That's not an exaggeration, right? He said
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 5: the judicial branch has too much power. There were protests
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: planned this week against Netanyahu where they anticipated tens of
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: thousands of people to take to the streets. That's all gone, Patrick.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: Netanyahu now has an emergency government and a mandate to lead.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: I'm not willing to say, to go so far that
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: saying that Netanyahu knew or there was intelligence here, but
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: I think some questions need to be asked. Was there
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 5: a stand down order? Was there a stand down order?
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: Six hours?
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: I don't believe it. Israel's the size of New Jersey.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 5: When I took a helicopter ride from Jerusalem to the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: Gaza border, it's 45 minutes.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: Six hours.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: They're live streaming the killing of Jews, was that somebody
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: in the government say, stand down. That is a legitimate
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 5: non-conspiracy question. The whole country is the IDF. The whole
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 5: country is. And you're trying to tell me that they're
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 5: going to concerts and kibbutzes and schools and buy reports
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: six hours. Let's say it's three hours.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: October of 2023. Now, combine that. Charlie said at the time,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: not ready to say there was a stand down order.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: But Ryan- Those questions have been floating since the time.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: It was unfathomable on October 7th that October 7th had occurred.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: So with all of these revelations, it raises a very,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: very serious question about whether Netanyahu allowed, intentionally allowed this
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: to happen.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: And so the response from the Israelis, and it's included, well,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: the serious response from the Israelis, not the just made up,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: net yahoo none of this is true response uh is
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: included and i can read one more passage so um
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: this reference to dalan and here muhammad dalan is palestinian
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: who was a fierce rival of sin wars who sin
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: war brought in because of his contacts with the egyptians
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: and the israelis to try to reach this uh negotiation
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: that got almost got to the finish line but net
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: yahoo couldn't bring it over the top so after october
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: 7th um through his right-hand man, reaches out to Dilan
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: to also convey to him, to the Israelis, that they're
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: willing to give back all of these civilian hostages because
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: they're trying to reach out every angle, every way that
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: they can. It's probably confusing to them. How do they
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: not want back their own citizens that we don't want
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: anything for? And so the Haaretz supporters write, Mohammad Dilan
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: activated his contacts with the Shin Bet and conveyed the
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: information to them. According to Mashar Wawi, quote, the unofficial
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: response Dilan received from them was, Netanyahu doesn't want to
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: talk about anything. He only wants war and the elimination
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: of Hamas. The Israelis' perception was, first we eliminate Hamas,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: and then we'll retrieve the hostages by force. A senior
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: defense official, Israeli, a senior defense official, admits that at
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: least some of the proposals for the release of civilian
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: hostages reached the Mossad, the Shin Bet, and the Prime Minister.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: So confirming that this is a senior Israeli official, confirming
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: all of this reporting to her rights, that yes, the
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: Hamas pledge to release hostages did get back to them.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: But according to him, even if they were concrete, the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: military establishment, which needed 24 hours to gain control of
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: the situation, and even more so the stunned political leadership,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: were unable to discuss the matter in the first few days.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: So they are appealing to fear and incompetence as their excuse.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: So whether you want to believe that or not is
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: up to you.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: It's really hard to believe there's mere incompetence when you have...
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: The other.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: Thing, a less devious but still evil analysis would be
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: Netanyahu saw October 7th as an existential threat to his
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: political career, which could lead him to also then end
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: up in prison. And if he would have cut a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: deal with Sinwar where he gets back those hostages and
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: then strikes a deal and 1,200 Israelis have been killed,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: and that's the end of it, effectively, he would assume
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: politically that's it for him. What he needed was what
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: he did, which was three years of genocide and whipping
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: up the country into this genocidal fever so that there
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: can never be a reckoning with his failures leading up
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: to October 7th. And the way you do that is
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: by October 7th never ends it just goes on forever
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: and so you can imagine from his perspective and also
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: it serves of course to then destroy Gaza and ethnically
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: cleanse the population but think about where Israel would be
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: today but you know Netanyahu's probably right that politically speaking
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: it would have been the end of him if he
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: accepts the return of these hostages, and then he strikes
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: some deal with Hamas. But think about where Israel would
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: be compared to where it is now. Yes, congratulations to them.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: They killed at least 70,000 people, 20,000 children. Something like
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: three to five children every single day have limbs amputated.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: I guess they can be proud of that. They have
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: absolutely leveled and destroyed Gaza. Rafa no longer exists. Everyone
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: inside Gaza is suffering. And there is a path toward
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: ethnic cleansing and the complete annexation of Gaza and then
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: of the West Bank. That path is before them. Whether
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: they'll be able to pull it off, it's going to
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: require an awful lot of more violence and destruction. But
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: maybe they can do it. But that's where they are now.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: If they had reached a deal, Hamas was being globally
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: vilified for the attack. You enter into this agreement, well, A,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: they could have taken the deal in September and avoided
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: this entire thing. They would not be facing, do we
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: have this next element? They would not be facing what
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: they're facing from Europe at the moment. You put up C4.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: The UK and a whole bunch of other European countries
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: are banning trade with settlements, with the United Kingdom citing
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: ethnic cleansing. Now there's some hypocrisy going on and there's
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: some double dealing. And certainly the Israelis are going to
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: be able to continue keeping up some trade, but they
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: are facing global isolation and economic contraction. The civil war
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: that Charlie Kirk referred to there that was going on
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: on October 6th is still happening.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: Countries still ripped apart.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: To me, they would be on a path to actual
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: sovereign stability and coexistence with Palestinians. You just have to
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: assume that they just did not want that.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: Where else can you go with it? And by the way,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: the situation in the West Bank is getting so bad
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: that even Mike Huckabee is now conceding reluctantly, there's violence
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: coming from settlers. Let's roll C3.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 6: We heard about the challenges that they face living in
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 6: their own homes, on their own property, some of the
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 6: intimidation that is being carried out by people that I
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 6: have characterized as being terrorists. I know that's an uncomfortable
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 6: word for some people. There are limitations in what a U.S.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 6: embassy can do in another country. We cannot investigate. We
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 6: don't have that power or authority. we cannot adjudicate we
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 6: don't have that power or authority but we can influence
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 6: and we can call attention there may be a few
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 6: hundred that are responsible but that's a few hundred too
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 6: many and one of the messages that we have been
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 6: sending and we will continue to send is that people
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 6: in these communities have a right to live with a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 6: level of security and safety, and that the government has
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 6: a responsibility to make sure that that happens.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: All right, well, that was Huckabee Saturday from the West Bank.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: Losing Huckabee.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: Losing Huckabee. I mean, they're not losing Huckabee, but I
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: guess they're at least allowing him to cede a millimeter
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: in public on the West Bank.