Latest / Brian Thomas / Inside Scoop with Breitbart News - John Hayward

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Inside Scoop with Breitbart News - John Hayward · Brian Thomas

0:01
Speaker 1: Eight oh five the fifty five care CD talk station.
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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, which means it is time for the inside
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Speaker 1: scoop with bright Bart News. Always start by reminding folks
0:10
Speaker 1: to bookmarket b R E I t BA art dot com.
0:13
Speaker 1: You be glad you did. I regularly refer to bright
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Speaker 1: barton preparation for the fifty five KRCY Morning Show because
0:17
Speaker 1: you get to read what bright Bart News National Security
0:20
Speaker 1: Debuty editor John Hayward writes about. John Hayward, Welcome back
0:23
Speaker 1: to the fifty five KRCY Morning Show, my friends. Great
0:25
Speaker 1: having you on as always, great to talk to you again. Well,
0:28
Speaker 1: you know, maybe you can explain where we are at
0:30
Speaker 1: this moment in time, because yesterday Donald Trump, I guess
0:33
Speaker 1: announced it Witkoff and Kushner. We're going to be heading
0:36
Speaker 1: over to cutter and entering into discussions with the Iranians,
0:39
Speaker 1: only to be followed by the Iranians saying we will
0:42
Speaker 1: not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the
0:45
Speaker 1: American side in the coming days. Also, no nuclear negotiations
0:50
Speaker 1: have been held with US so far, and there will
0:52
Speaker 1: be no negotiations on nuclear issues until Iran's conditions are met,
0:56
Speaker 1: Which lets me ask, is the Memorandum of Understanding perhaps
0:59
Speaker 1: a misnomer because they blew up a boat the other day.
1:03
Speaker 1: The Iranians did because it was traveling along the Omani
1:06
Speaker 1: side of the strait, as opposed to the preferred Iranian
1:09
Speaker 1: route which they want, which allows them to guess monitor
1:12
Speaker 1: the traffic. Had that point even been agreed on when
1:15
Speaker 1: they blew up the boat that resulted in US having
1:17
Speaker 1: to launch a counter strike. I'm a little confused. John Hayward, Well, there.
1:22
Speaker 2: Are some misunderstandings in the memorandum of understanding, and that's
1:25
Speaker 2: probably the biggest one is what it meant when they
1:29
Speaker 2: said they would reopen the Strait of Hormos. If you
1:31
Speaker 2: read the MoU it's not very long, and it has
1:33
Speaker 2: a point in there that just says they're going to
1:35
Speaker 2: reopen the Strait of Hormos and there won't be any
1:37
Speaker 2: tolls for sixty days. But it doesn't really say much
1:40
Speaker 2: other than that. It just seems to be assumed that
1:43
Speaker 2: reopening it means everybody can pass through it unimpeded, and
1:46
Speaker 2: the Iranians are saying, no, no, we didn't agree to that.
1:49
Speaker 2: We're going to reopen the Strait of Hormos under our
1:51
Speaker 2: tyrannical rule. We're going to make every everybody will obey us,
1:55
Speaker 2: and then after sixty days we're going to extort gigantic
1:58
Speaker 2: tolls and feed right out of all that traffic. And
2:01
Speaker 2: so that's why they're doing what they're doing. They attacked
2:03
Speaker 2: ships in the Strait that were on the wrong side
2:05
Speaker 2: in their opinion, that were hugging the coast of Oman,
2:07
Speaker 2: which was the US agreed quarter for ships to take,
2:11
Speaker 2: because they want everything to be under their control. And
2:13
Speaker 2: of course we said, no, no, that's not what the
2:15
Speaker 2: MoU meant. You know, we're pretty explicit here, you're not
2:18
Speaker 2: going to be charging any tolls for the Strait of promos.
2:20
Speaker 2: And so shots were fired over the weekend over that misunderstanding.
2:24
Speaker 1: Well, and I will have to agree it doesn't least
2:26
Speaker 1: appear in its face to be a misunderstanding, since they
2:28
Speaker 1: shot at the boat and blew it up or bombed
2:30
Speaker 1: it was. Did the Orion say at any point prior
2:35
Speaker 1: to doing that that listen, if boats go through the
2:38
Speaker 1: Omani side of the Strait as opposed to our side,
2:41
Speaker 1: we're going to launch and we're giving you fair warning.
2:42
Speaker 1: We're going to shoot missiles or drones at them and
2:44
Speaker 1: blow them out out of the water, or is this
2:46
Speaker 1: out of nowhere? Because the extent was out of nowhere.
2:49
Speaker 1: I mean there was a ceasefire allegedly in place after
2:52
Speaker 1: they got into the memorandum understanding. So clearly this is
2:55
Speaker 1: a violation definititionly have a ceasefire, But did it violate
2:59
Speaker 1: any prior arrangements that we all knew about, because this,
3:02
Speaker 1: like I said, seem to have come out of the blue, John.
3:05
Speaker 2: And the violence was out of the blue. The Iranians
3:08
Speaker 2: did say they expected everybody to stay on their side
3:11
Speaker 2: of the strait and to obey their commands as to
3:13
Speaker 2: where the boats would go, but they didn't. They didn't
3:15
Speaker 2: really say, or else will kill you. And then the
3:18
Speaker 2: attack from the drones that they attacked boats with. That
3:21
Speaker 2: was a surprising escalation to physical force in some people's view,
3:24
Speaker 2: and it really spooked the shipping industry. But it also
3:27
Speaker 2: seems like it kind of worked because according to the
3:29
Speaker 2: ship trackers, as of right now, the bulk of the
3:31
Speaker 2: traffic that is passing through the strait is hugging the
3:34
Speaker 2: Iranian coast right now. I don't think the ship tracking people,
3:38
Speaker 2: the shipping industry, they don't feel comfortable going the way
3:40
Speaker 2: the US wants them to and potentially being attacked right now,
3:43
Speaker 2: they feel like it's safer to just do what the
3:45
Speaker 2: Iranians are saying and stay on their side.
3:48
Speaker 1: Well, okay, let me just ask this simple question. I
3:50
Speaker 1: know Donald Trump has threatened the Iranians with you know,
3:55
Speaker 1: existential threats. I might point out bombing them out of
3:57
Speaker 1: existence or whatever phrasing you use a given time. Kind
4:00
Speaker 1: of a similar retort made after the Iranians bomb this boat.
4:03
Speaker 1: We did launch some missiles at targets. But you know,
4:06
Speaker 1: if you keep this up, you're going to have a strong,
4:08
Speaker 1: a real problem on your hands. Iran. What is the
4:12
Speaker 1: measure that we can actually effectively use against the Iranians
4:14
Speaker 1: to get them to straighten up and fly right. I'm
4:17
Speaker 1: kind of at a loss on that, given that we
4:19
Speaker 1: never did open the straight of Horror moves on our
4:21
Speaker 1: own using our navy, apparently that's not a possibility. We
4:24
Speaker 1: might have used it already. Where are we in response
4:27
Speaker 1: and insofar as our ability to go after the Iranians
4:29
Speaker 1: and get them to bend to our will a little bit?
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Speaker 2: Well, the Iranians are pretty determined that they are going
4:35
Speaker 2: to control the strait, and they will be imposing all
4:37
Speaker 2: these stees and tolls and ransoms once they have absolute
4:40
Speaker 2: control of it in the sixty days is over. And
4:42
Speaker 2: there's really only three things that you can do to
4:44
Speaker 2: dissuade them from that. One of them is to hit
4:46
Speaker 2: them with just overwhelming physical force and break them. Make
4:49
Speaker 2: them give up on that ambition because we've leveled cities.
4:52
Speaker 2: I mean, that would have to be apocalyptic, and President
4:54
Speaker 2: Trump keeps talking about doing that, but that there remains
4:57
Speaker 2: to be seen if we would or could, because you know,
5:00
Speaker 2: we need buy in from other powers in the region
5:02
Speaker 2: to use bases and so on for that kind of
5:04
Speaker 2: an operation, and they might not give it if we
5:06
Speaker 2: try to do something that extreme, if we pushed up
5:08
Speaker 2: against the wall. So that's option number one. Option number
5:12
Speaker 2: two is that you take away that coast of the
5:14
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormoes from Iran. You basically invade it, you
5:17
Speaker 2: conquer it, you tail the Iranians. They don't own that
5:19
Speaker 2: land anymore. It's not part of Iran anymore. It's now
5:22
Speaker 2: a safe zone that will ensure free shipping in the
5:24
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormoes. That would obviously also be a major
5:26
Speaker 2: military operation. It would involve boots on the ground, which
5:29
Speaker 2: would be a huge line for the president to cross
5:32
Speaker 2: in American politics and public opinion. And then the third
5:36
Speaker 2: possibility is that the international community gets together, joins the
5:39
Speaker 2: US Navy, and fills that strait with warships from nations
5:43
Speaker 2: across the world, and that every time Iran launches a drone,
5:46
Speaker 2: it's attacking the world, and the world would respond if
5:49
Speaker 2: it ever did that. And so far I haven't had
5:51
Speaker 2: a lot of success getting the other nations of the
5:53
Speaker 2: Earth to do that. They've all been content to let
5:55
Speaker 2: us take point.
5:56
Speaker 1: And they struggle mightily with the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
5:59
Speaker 1: Matter of fact, I would argue perhaps more mightily than
6:01
Speaker 1: we because they get more goods and services. Fertilizer, for example,
6:05
Speaker 1: flows through there. They're not getting it, so they don't
6:08
Speaker 1: And yet they don't seem to have any vested interest
6:10
Speaker 1: in helping us keep the straight up horn moves open.
6:12
Speaker 1: Seems like, I don't know, maybe our NATO allies or
6:16
Speaker 1: the European Union generally speaking, just doesn't have the ability
6:19
Speaker 1: to help us. I mean, we all know that they
6:21
Speaker 1: don't have much by way of standing armies militaries or navies.
6:25
Speaker 2: No, they don't have anything like what we do, but
6:28
Speaker 2: they could be there if they wanted to be. They
6:30
Speaker 2: could cough up a few ships that would join the
6:32
Speaker 2: international Patrol. The other Middle Eastern nations could all contribute
6:35
Speaker 2: to that effort if they wanted to, and especially places
6:38
Speaker 2: like China and India, which are very heavily reliant on
6:41
Speaker 2: the Straight and Hormoz, they could really help if they
6:44
Speaker 2: wanted to, the Indians have a respectable navy, and the
6:46
Speaker 2: Chinese are Iran's best friend, their patron, their senior partner
6:50
Speaker 2: in the access of tyranny. If the Chinese put a
6:52
Speaker 2: bunch of warships in the street and said, knock off
6:55
Speaker 2: all this drone nonsense, Iran would stop. I mean, that
6:57
Speaker 2: would be the end of it if China were to
6:59
Speaker 2: step in. But they won't. They haven't, and that's all
7:02
Speaker 2: because calculations are being made about who's really paying the
7:04
Speaker 2: price for all this and what kind of pressure it's
7:06
Speaker 2: bringing to bear against the United States. At the moment,
7:09
Speaker 2: it seems to me like it's highly likely the Iranians
7:12
Speaker 2: are going to win this confrontation unless the rest of
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Speaker 2: the world is willing to step up and do what
7:16
Speaker 2: it takes to stop them. It doesn't take very much
7:18
Speaker 2: to terrorize international shipping. Those boats are big, they're slow,
7:22
Speaker 2: they're highly vulnerable. You only need a couple of exploding
7:25
Speaker 2: drones to damage them severely kill the crews. It's really
7:28
Speaker 2: easy to terrorize international shipping in a narrow waterway.
7:31
Speaker 1: Well, and even if we went in militarily and took
7:33
Speaker 1: over the coastal areas as opposed to trying to take
7:36
Speaker 1: over the entire country of Iran, which obviously has logistical challenges.
7:40
Speaker 1: But I mean, as the Ukrainians have proven, distance doesn't
7:44
Speaker 1: seem to really matter in terms of hitting a target.
7:46
Speaker 1: So we have established a safe zone along the water.
7:50
Speaker 1: They can still launch rockets and missiles and drone strikes
7:53
Speaker 1: from within the country's interior and still effectively hit boats
7:56
Speaker 1: in the Straits of Hormuz.
7:58
Speaker 2: They could, but it becomes a lot harder if they
8:00
Speaker 2: don't actually control the coastal territory. If we occupied the
8:03
Speaker 2: coast as a safety buffer zone, any drones they launched
8:06
Speaker 2: would have to go over the buffer zone and could
8:08
Speaker 2: very well be intercepted while they're doing that. Before they
8:11
Speaker 2: could menace international shipping, and they wouldn't be able to
8:14
Speaker 2: use short range missiles, which they have lots of, to
8:16
Speaker 2: menace ships. They would have to start using their much
8:19
Speaker 2: more scarce longer range missiles, and those launch sites could
8:22
Speaker 2: be detected and destroyed every time they tried it. They
8:24
Speaker 2: would lose that war of attrition if we took over
8:26
Speaker 2: that part of the country. But again, taking over that
8:29
Speaker 2: part of Iran is a massive undertaking, and I don't
8:31
Speaker 2: think the American people are not completely on board with
8:34
Speaker 2: the idea of invading any part of Iran with soldiers
8:36
Speaker 2: on the ground.
8:37
Speaker 1: Now, if any poling information is clear on that, it's that.
8:40
Speaker 1: And Donald Trump's favorability rating is dropping part in part
8:45
Speaker 1: because of this and the whole idea that a campaigned
8:48
Speaker 1: on the end of endless wars. You're talking about this
8:52
Speaker 1: either in a couple of those scenarios anyway, with the
8:54
Speaker 1: exception of everybody else joining in the fight to keep
8:56
Speaker 1: the straight open. You're talking about a long term commitment.
9:00
Speaker 2: There, absolutely, and that's something the Iranians are gambling on.
9:05
Speaker 2: For them, that long term commitment is easy. They're sitting
9:08
Speaker 2: right next to the strait of Hormo's. They have lots
9:10
Speaker 2: of these little suicide drones and short range missiles. They
9:13
Speaker 2: can keep this up forever, attacking ships whenever they feel
9:16
Speaker 2: like it and terrorizing them until the rest of the
9:18
Speaker 2: world says, Okay, let's just pay their stupid ransom and
9:21
Speaker 2: do what they're saying, and then we can have our
9:22
Speaker 2: shipping lanes back. And I think the Iranians are gambling
9:25
Speaker 2: that the rest of the world will internalize that cost
9:28
Speaker 2: and just pay the ransom because they don't have the
9:30
Speaker 2: fighting spirit to push back well.
9:31
Speaker 1: In the Ranians are certainly enjoying something I'm not quite
9:34
Speaker 1: sure that they were aware that they had. Is this
9:36
Speaker 1: new found power. With just i'd say just drones and
9:40
Speaker 1: mines and you know, little mosquito boats, they're able to
9:44
Speaker 1: shut down effectively the entire strait and that's nothing. That's
9:48
Speaker 1: something they had never done before. But now that they
9:50
Speaker 1: have that strength, and given the logistical hurdles in preventing
9:55
Speaker 1: them from exercise that, this is newfound power for them.
9:57
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're really willing to let go
9:59
Speaker 1: of it as you suggested. They expect to control it
10:02
Speaker 1: down the road. Is this also in part because of
10:06
Speaker 1: the November election, the Iridians have to be considering November
10:09
Speaker 1: elections and try to bring it much harm to the
10:10
Speaker 1: Trump administration as possible. Is that one of the reasons
10:13
Speaker 1: they're dragging this out.
10:15
Speaker 2: Oh definitely. They're well aware of the American political calendar.
10:18
Speaker 2: They can read newspapers and websites. They know where a
10:20
Speaker 2: public opinion is at, so they know all of that
10:22
Speaker 2: is militating in their favor. They might go too far
10:25
Speaker 2: if they remember the Iranians in every public appearance, every
10:29
Speaker 2: time you hear the president or their foreign minister talk,
10:31
Speaker 2: they're talking like they won the war, defeated and humiliated
10:34
Speaker 2: the United States and the MoU is a surrender document.
10:37
Speaker 2: And if they keep doing that, they might eventually annoy
10:40
Speaker 2: the American people enough to our public opinion about beating
10:43
Speaker 2: the crap out of them will change, and President Trump
10:45
Speaker 2: might have a freer hand to deal with them. But
10:47
Speaker 2: as it said, right now, they're not wrong to calculate
10:50
Speaker 2: that we've got elections coming up. The public doesn't want
10:52
Speaker 2: a protracted battle. They like having oil prices back down again,
10:56
Speaker 2: they like stability in the international markets. Is the Ranians
10:59
Speaker 2: have every reason from where we're sitting right now, they
11:01
Speaker 2: think they're going to get away with this unless somebody, everybody,
11:04
Speaker 2: and it really can't just be somebody, it has to
11:06
Speaker 2: be everybody stands up and says no.
11:09
Speaker 1: Well, and I guess if you look at it, Let's
11:11
Speaker 1: say the Democrats take over the House and Senate Trump's
11:14
Speaker 1: kind of laying them product presidency on him on his hands.
11:17
Speaker 1: But then they do pass a war powers resolution which
11:20
Speaker 1: requires or even exercise the power of the person refuse
11:23
Speaker 1: to fund the conflict anymore. Isn't that the Democrats' solution
11:28
Speaker 1: to this? And doesn't that just hand the Iranians a
11:32
Speaker 1: win without any without getting anything in return from them.
11:36
Speaker 2: Well, sure, that's one of the problems with trying to
11:38
Speaker 2: do the big options. If you're going to try to
11:40
Speaker 2: devastate Iran to the point where they bow under, or
11:44
Speaker 2: if you're going to occupy that part of Iran and
11:46
Speaker 2: take the straightaway from him, those are long term military
11:48
Speaker 2: operations that would then become very succeptible to congressional meddling,
11:52
Speaker 2: to being defunded if public opinion turns against him. Me
11:55
Speaker 2: do boots on the ground, there's going to be casualties,
11:57
Speaker 2: and that always turns people against the military conflict very quickly,
12:01
Speaker 2: you know. So there's a lot of things that could
12:03
Speaker 2: happen here, and you're dealing with, on the other hand,
12:05
Speaker 2: an iron fisted, murderous tyranny that we hap to happily
12:08
Speaker 2: kill eighty percent of its own population if it had
12:11
Speaker 2: to in order to stay in power. So they don't
12:13
Speaker 2: feel like any of those factors are relevant to them.
12:15
Speaker 2: They have deduced and put together that they will fight
12:19
Speaker 2: much longer and much harder than we will over any
12:21
Speaker 2: of the issues that are currently on the table. And
12:23
Speaker 2: all wars a conflict to will. It doesn't matter if
12:26
Speaker 2: your military is a thousand times better than the enemy,
12:28
Speaker 2: if your will breaks before there.
12:30
Speaker 1: Does well, I mean, didn't Afghanistan demonstrate that. Don't the
12:33
Speaker 1: Ukrainians demonstrate that in the face of the mighty Russian
12:36
Speaker 1: army if you have you know, religion on your side
12:39
Speaker 1: and the other side doesn't, if they're not taking that
12:41
Speaker 1: into account or you know, country pride in country or something.
12:45
Speaker 1: I mean, guys of Ak forty sevens and mountains were
12:47
Speaker 1: able to hold off Russians and the United States military
12:49
Speaker 1: and Afghanistan by way of illustration for decades and what
12:53
Speaker 1: did we get out of that?
12:56
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And it's always a mistake to assume that enemies
12:59
Speaker 2: like Iran not studying those things. They have large professional
13:03
Speaker 2: military apparatuses. They studied Afghanistan, they studied Iraq, they know
13:07
Speaker 2: what happened. They saw their own failures when they went
13:09
Speaker 2: to war with Iraq, and they try to learn from
13:11
Speaker 2: those things. Everybody good and bad that has a professional
13:14
Speaker 2: military is always learning the lessons of history, and that's
13:17
Speaker 2: one of the lessons that's been taught to us. It's very,
13:19
Speaker 2: very difficult to defeat a determined enemy, and unfortunately, the
13:23
Speaker 2: most civilized, most rational, compassionate, advanced societies in the world
13:28
Speaker 2: are the ones that have the most to lose, and
13:30
Speaker 2: they're the least likely to dig into a huge existential conflict.
13:34
Speaker 2: They're going to look for an off rapp a lot
13:36
Speaker 2: faster than these savage little countries are going to do.
13:39
Speaker 1: John Hayward, he's the National Security debuty editor with Breit Barton,
13:42
Speaker 1: and is real quick here. I've been thrown around this
13:45
Speaker 1: concept that you know, Donald Trump and others have Trump
13:48
Speaker 1: been trying to appeal to the Iranians. Listen, if you
13:50
Speaker 1: just play nice with us, if you just stop you know,
13:52
Speaker 1: funding terrorists and making this an unstable region. You will
13:55
Speaker 1: get the largest the benefit of investment, You'll make money,
13:59
Speaker 1: your country will be more wealthy. I don't think the Iranians,
14:02
Speaker 1: at least the fundamentalists that run the country, want to
14:05
Speaker 1: have anything to do at all with Western culture. I
14:09
Speaker 1: think they view us all as literally the great state,
14:11
Speaker 1: and they've said it a million times. But part of
14:13
Speaker 1: which is they know full well that you know Sodom
14:15
Speaker 1: and Gomorah. It's going to undermine their own theocracy and
14:20
Speaker 1: not a newer to the Muslim faith. The fundamental ideologies benefit.
14:23
Speaker 1: It will well effectively erode that in the in the
14:27
Speaker 1: people if they get the benefits of Western success.
14:31
Speaker 2: Exactly right, not just Western culture, but Western success. The
14:35
Speaker 2: one thing every tyrant in the world understands is that
14:37
Speaker 2: once your population gets a standard of living and per
14:40
Speaker 2: capita income on par with the United States, and once
14:44
Speaker 2: your population begins owning capital in a serious way, they're
14:47
Speaker 2: not going to put up with your squalid little tyranny anymore.
14:49
Speaker 2: You're going to have a harder and harder time controlling
14:52
Speaker 2: people when they have when they feel like they have
14:53
Speaker 2: more to lose, like they have more to protect. It
14:56
Speaker 2: kind of inverts the formula of the contest of wills.
14:59
Speaker 2: Right now, the average Geranian does not have the will
15:01
Speaker 2: to stand up to their government, even if they hate them,
15:04
Speaker 2: and even if they don't want to live in this
15:05
Speaker 2: medieval theocracy anymore, they just don't have the will to
15:08
Speaker 2: stand up to their government that will happily murder them
15:11
Speaker 2: in order to remain in power. But if the Iranian
15:13
Speaker 2: people became richer, wealthier, and more powerful, gain more influence
15:17
Speaker 2: over their own government, and especially if they ever start
15:20
Speaker 2: getting guns, then they're not going to put up with
15:22
Speaker 2: that anymore. And the Iranian theocracy knows that. So no,
15:25
Speaker 2: they're not at all leager. Neither was North Korea. That
15:27
Speaker 2: didn't work with North Korea. Remember Trump told North Korea
15:30
Speaker 2: you could have this beautiful country and all this prosperity,
15:32
Speaker 2: and the North Korean government said, that's the last thing
15:34
Speaker 2: we want. We don't want our people to be rich
15:37
Speaker 2: and well connected and well informed. They're going to be
15:39
Speaker 2: hard to control if that happens.
15:40
Speaker 1: And in a losing effort, apparently North Koreans already have
15:43
Speaker 1: a bomb, at least I've read widely these days. So
15:46
Speaker 1: John Hayward, about twenty six of them, twenty six of
15:49
Speaker 1: them great that's fine, John, John Hayward, Easy Breitbart national
15:54
Speaker 1: Security Deputy editor at Breitbart Book, Breitbart dot com. You'd
15:57
Speaker 1: be glad you did, John, and look forward to having
15:58
Speaker 1: you back on the fifty five Morning Show really soon.
16:00
Speaker 1: And keep up the great work, my friend,