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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from SASFIN
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Securities in Johannesburg.
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David, Donald Trump's at it again.
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I mean, we could start every podcast with Donald Trump's at it again.
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But this time, it's not the geopolitics that I want to talk about, although we
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will.
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It's the attack on the Fed and Jerome Powell, which is petty.
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which is dangerous, and the bond market doesn't like it.
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It's not going mad, but the bond market definitely doesn't like what's going on.
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The yields are ticking up, the bond prices themselves coming down when it should be
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the other way around.
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Something's going on.
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People are saying we don't like this, and therefore we're getting rid of our bond
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holdings.
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We're starting to.
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I think he's pushing it too far this time, and I think there's going to be a
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backlash.
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We haven't had a chance to hear from business companies.
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But it's surprising that they're not saying something.
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This is dangerous.
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I mean, what was unique about it is that Powell's been pretty stoic up to now.
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He hasn't said a word.
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He just carried on, this is what I'm here to do.
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You know, I'm here to decide whether to put rates up or down and whatever it is.
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This time he came out punching.
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And he said, this is political.
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In other words… politics is steering the, he, Powell wants, sorry,
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Trump wants politics to steer the fed rates or the fed decisions,
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not economics.
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So he's come out now quite aggressive.
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What's also interesting is that the Senate committees,
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I don't know who the particular senator who's in charge of the election of
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appointment of
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new fed governors, but he's come out whether it's a banking committee or
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whatever, he's come out with Elizabeth Warren also saying, "Look,
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as long as this continues we will not entertain the appointment of a new
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governor."
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This could just put everything on hold.
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So it's quite an important issue and the markets seem to,
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okay, mark it down slightly, this is what we're supposed to do.
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But Lindsay, it's a very worrying sign and I know we talk about Trump,
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but there are times that I can tolerate him.
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There are other times where I say, okay,
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it's time for the lawmakers to take control.
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In other words, for the Senate, for Congress and so on, just to cut him down
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now.
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It's enough.
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We don't want a country like...
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Or you don't want to see America going this way.
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For me, it's...
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It's very worrying and I'm just hoping that they're big enough people there, you
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know,
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in the US to stand up to this and say, okay, enough is enough.
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You know, this is it.
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But I don't know, you know, everybody's scared of him.
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They tiptoe around him, which is also very, very new.
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Because he's such an underwhelming person.
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I mean, in every way, physically, mentally, everywhere he's loathsome.
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I can't believe Peter Mandelson, I don't know if you followed the Mandelson story.
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I know who Peter Mandelson is, yeah.
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Oh God, what he said on a BBC interview, he said, "I like his humour and his
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graciousness",
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because they used to be the ambassador, Britain's ambassador in Washington.
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Graciousness.
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His graciousness, and he says that he makes decisions based on something
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horrible,
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it infuriated me.
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But I just don't understand why people...
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He got into trouble, Mandelson, didn't he?
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No, he's a rogue.
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He's finished now though.
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He was Epstein, one of Epstein's mates.
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But anyway, yes, we were talking about Trump.
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No one's standing up to him.
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But he's done this other thing now.
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He's coming out with this 10% charge.
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You can't charge more than that on credit cards.
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This is also a declaration.
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In other words, you know, he's trying to think of the midterms and to get the votes
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of anybody who's got a
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debt or a loan with a credit card company.
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I see, yes.
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He's starting his I'm a president for the people sort of campaign, is he?
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Yes, yes.
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You know, limiting the amount that you can charge on credit cards because it does
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sometimes go, I don't know, 20%,
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30%.
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But he's limiting it to a certain amount.
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I don't know what the...
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you know what the exact amount is, but whatever.
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I think the Visa Mastercard business model probably works a little bit better than
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Trump's mind, don't you?
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Yeah, well of course, you can't decide that.
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I can understand money lenders,
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those chaps who lend money on the street corner and what they charge,
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but I wouldn't put credit card companies into that category as well, they do well.
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But they provide an incredible service.
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You know, anywhere in the world you want to use a Visa card, you can.
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A Mastercard, whatever it is.
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But I agree with you.
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I think they know their business a little bit better than Mr Trump.
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Quite right.
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Talking about business, David, before we get on to geopolitics and other matters.
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A very interesting piece that I got from Annabel Bishop, the chief economist at
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Investec in Johannesburg, talking about global trade.
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And it's with a South African bias, but it says it gives global figures as well.
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And the headline is, or rather the first paragraph says the following,
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global trade has shown strong growth despite US tariffs and geopolitical
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tensions in general,
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resulting in changing trade patterns reaching over, what is this number here?
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35 trillion, which is a record level.
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It's up 2.5% compared with the previous three months.
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For July to September, global trade was up 2.5%.
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Okay, so it's...
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It's a little bit behind but only a quarter behind.
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Energy commodities continue to dominate global commodity trade.
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This is the one that really interests me.
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It says, "The change in trade patterns which has been a key driver of resilience
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has
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included things I hadn't heard actually, friend shoring, near shoring and on
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shoring,
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while the jumping global trade came from rising volumes in the main on stable
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global demand."
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When they say friend shoring and near shoring, I think it means people said,
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never mind the United States.
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Let's look for markets elsewhere.
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Let's look for markets closer to us.
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So the Southern Hemisphere, for example, has got a South-South drive.
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So the Southern Hemisphere countries are trading with each other.
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And so what Trump has done is essentially made, is starting to make America an
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island.
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And other people are saying, well, if we can, we'll deal with other people.
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Thank you very much.
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I think, well, they were forced into that.
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Because of the tariffs and focusing on local markets.
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Look, I don't think it's a bad thing.
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I don't know enough.
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I can never challenge Annabella or even understand the global patterns,
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but I can imagine that countries like that have been forced into it.
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But you know what we don't understand is just how big the Asian economies are in
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terms of
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population.
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Whether it's Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, those countries, Korea,
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Japan.
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These are sizable economies.
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They might not be sizably rich, but they are developing.
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When I say developing, I'm using the word much broadly: developing economies.
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I can imagine that there's a lot of trade there.
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I don't know whether they're enemies.
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I know Japan is having a go at China and their issues there.
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I don't think you can ignore them.
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I looked at India's trade, I mean GDP numbers, which were astounding.
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And around that, I thought, okay, well, let's look.
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The problem, Lindsay, it's not easy to find businesses.
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You know what I'm saying?
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It's not easy to find companies that can compare with the size of the American
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companies or the ones that we know, Europe.
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that we're familiar with.
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And also, David, let's face it, you don't know the Indian market.
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You can say, well, look at how many billion people there are and look at the
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potential should you get your company right or your product right.
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But you don't know.
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You have to be on the ground or you have to have someone on the ground.
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And you're an on-the-ground sort of person when it comes to America because you're a
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regular visitor there.
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And although you're not going to see a director of Microsoft or Intel or whoever
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it is or NVIDIA,
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you know the company and you feel comfortable with it.
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With India, I wouldn't know where to start.
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No, it's exactly that.
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And when you look at it, it's made up of a number of small and medium cap companies,
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many,
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many of them.
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And I don't know the areas, I don't know the relationships.
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There are a few that come through in the nifty-fifty or thereabouts, but they're
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not businesses that I can really say,
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oh, I've got to own this one or that one.
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If you want to, you might want to buy the index.
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But, you know, that's not...
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I like to get a feel for their economy.
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So even though we talk about Malaysia and talk about Indonesia and talk about these
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places where a lot of activity is
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taking place, it's very difficult to translate that into a handful of companies
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or businesses.
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And that's why we tend to go back to America.
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But hopefully it's happening.
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I think the same I'm having the same problem with South Africa at the moment as
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well.
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As you know, we're talking about South Africa doing better in the green shoots
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and you mentioned it last week.
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Yes.
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But when I translate it into actual businesses and say, is there anything I
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can buy?
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And I go through the whole list.
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I still haven't got that confidence.
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The only one that we might be seeing,
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might be looking into is with commodity prices starting to tick up.
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Do we find are BHP cheap?
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Sorry, is it cheap?
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Is Anglo's okay?
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They're doing the deal with tech and now we've got the Glencore.
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Is it a copper company now?
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Have you looked at the commodity spread now?
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Has it become a copper company?
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Yeah.
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Well, they're trying to get dominance in copper.
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And there's a lot of talk up of copper.
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I'm not in the market.
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I'm not a consumer.
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It's at record highs.
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That's not bad.
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That's what I'm saying.
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But people are accumulating the metal.
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So they must have something to do with it or they do believe that there's going to
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be a demand for it, whether it's for electricity,
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power transmission.
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or whether it's for home building, whatever it is.
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But a lot of copper has gone into the US.
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But companies are starting to pick up slightly.
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You're seeing more activity.
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This Rio deal is very interesting with
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Glencore. I get it to be worth about two, you know, looking at both market caps,
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it's a $200 billion deal.
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Not bad.
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Yeah, no, it's big.
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But I don't know if it's going to take off simply because you've got two very
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dominant
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CEOs.
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Who's going to stand by, you know?
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And who's going to let is this going to be joint or whatever?
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I've never known Glencore to step aside.
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And they're the ones, you know, who started this.
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They're about 40%.
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You know, if it's going to be split, it's 40%.
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Glencore, 60% Rio Tinto.
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They must have a plan.
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What's the other chap?
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Simon Trott.
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He's been there for a long time, but he's only been in the job as CEO for a few
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months.
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It might fall down on that.
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These are all very great and everybody says we can see what the benefits are
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going to be,
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but let's sit around the table and say who's going to run this place.
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But it's interesting that when tech and Anglo get together, and then these two
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that you've just been talking about get together as well.
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And I've asked you this question before.
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Does consolidation in the industry mean that it's bullish for the raw material,
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the dollar-priced commodity?
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I don't know.
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You know, we'll find out.
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We're going to find out whether or not there is benefit because you're going to
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have to work out where are the benefits going to
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come I can understand if you've got two contiguous minds.
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In other words, a mind next to another one.
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And you've both got to build railways or you've both got to build plants or you've
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both got to do things.
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There I can see the benefits of a merger where you say we don't need two plants.
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We only need one.
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Let's merge.
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That's where I see benefits coming through.
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If we can prove that that's there.
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If each is after the other's assets and… Rio,
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who are copper and iron ore or whatever they are, kind of say, "Well, we'll take
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the iron ore.
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You take this.
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You run that." I don't know.
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These are complicated deals.
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We're going to see the same thing with Anglo-American as well in tech,
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what really comes out of it and you'll have to follow it over years.
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Listen, as we've said last year, good for Anglo-American.
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They sold out of the Altera in February.
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Great timing.
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It's the Wild West out there when it comes to commodities, David.
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No one seems to know what's going to happen to the oil price.
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Venezuela has been brushed aside almost.
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I mean, it's made it volatile.
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Look at Iran now.
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Iran is an interesting one.
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Initially there's worries that the oil there won't be any flows out of Iran.
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I know it's a controlled flow.
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But what happens if Iran does fall and suddenly you've got a new nation that you
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want to build up?
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It's going to be more oil on the floor in the market as well.
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I can't see as well as Venezuela.
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I can't see anything but trouble if there is a regime change, a violent regime
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change in Iran.
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I mean look at 1979 when the Shah was deposed.
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I mean it was chaos and now they want to go back they want the Shah's son to come
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and sit there.
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It will be a complete disaster.
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There'll be a free fall everyone will want a chunk of it.
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Even Trump wants a chunk of Iran.
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He doesn't even know where Iran is.
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Remember that time he bombed them with the B-52?
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He had those those very sleek bombers at night.
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And he said, these are the most tremendous bombers.
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We had a really strong reaction to Iran's nuclear program.
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And he said, and it was very dark that night.
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I remember him saying that, and I thought, this is a $100 billion jet you've got
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there.
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It doesn't matter whether it's dark or raining.
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It's going to find its target.
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Don't you worry about that.
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They didn't have flashlights.
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Yeah, we are bombers.
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That will be horrible.
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It's a situation that's developed.
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We're only the second week into the new year.
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And I mean, already you've had Venezuela.
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We're having Iran.
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We're having Rio Tinto.
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Cuba's also the next one.
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We've got Cal.
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Because, you know, only a few weeks in and...
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It's actually the 12th.
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It's not even two weeks in.
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It's the 12th of January.
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Look at that.
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Yeah.
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It's extraordinary.
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David, the other thing...
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Yeah, I was going to ask you if you could name all the countries that...
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Never mind the ones that he says he's stopped fighting each other.
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The ones that he's had a go at.
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We've had Iran.
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He bombed their nuclear facilities.
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There's been Venezuela.
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He invaded and took out the president.
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and is putting him on trial.
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What else have we got?
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We've got threatening Greenland.
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Panama Canal's gone a bit quiet.
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He was going to do something with the Panama Canal, but he hasn't done anything
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that hasn't come up for a long, long time now.
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But Greenland is definitely next.
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Didn't Black Rock or Black Spice buy it back?
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Black something did.
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From the Chinese.
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Yeah, something happened there.
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Black Stone or Black Rock.
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I don't know which one it was.
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Not Black Rock.
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Blackstone, yeah.
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Yeah, Blackstone.
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But he even went into Nigeria, David, because he wants that, you know, he said,
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oh, he says, I like Christians.
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I don't know if anyone told him that the Christians in Nigeria are black, because
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if he did, if he had found that out,
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he would definitely not have helped them because he's a rabid racist, as you know.
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But anyway, what is bad?
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The Greenland is next.
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And that's worry.
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And I mean, that's NATO.
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And I mean his whole story about whether or not, you know,
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he says they landed there 500 years ago and suddenly they lay claim to it.
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Well, I think there are a lot of other countries in history that have done
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exactly the same and are still there.
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You know, so I don't know.
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It's got a very strange sense of history.
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When he was asked about Denmark having sovereignty over Greenland.
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because they were there 200 years ago with their boats and they claimed it as theirs.
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And he said, well, we were there with our boats as well.
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No, it was more than 200 years ago, as you say, 500 years ago.
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America wasn't even invented 500 years ago.
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They didn't have any boats.
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What's he talking about?
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Nitwit.
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Yeah, I know.
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How's your tech stock portfolio?
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Not your portfolio, the suite of tech stocks.
18:09
They're sort of jostling...
18:11
Position, one day I saw Intel down 9%, next day up 11%.
18:15
NVIDIA just treading water at the moment, isn't it?
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It's going to be I think there's going to be a period of digestion.
18:24
I think the news is still positive.
18:26
I'm quite positive on what's going have you seen ASML in the meantime?
18:30
They're up about 20% this year alone.
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So you're finding it moving elsewhere.
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You've had good gains in Amazons and the Alphabets and so on.
18:40
relative to where we are in the first week and also in December.
18:44
And video has gone kind of flat, but I still think it's going to be a theme that
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dominates,
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but I don't expect massive gains in the first half of the year.
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We need to get through a few earning cycles, and then if they continue to grow,
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I think then the markets will respond in a way they should.
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So if we're coming into the fourth quarter earning season,
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I know that...
19:10
There's quite positive views on what companies will earn and what they'll look
19:15
like.
19:15
I think that's going to be another...
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kind of underpin for the market.
19:20
But with all the noise that we're hearing at the moment, you know, whether it's
19:26
Trump, whether it's whatever it is,
19:28
I still think markets are just brushing it aside and saying, okay, let's see what the
19:31
companies are doing.
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You know, let's really get a feel for how they're operating and so on.
19:38
I just see a headline coming through that Walmart's doing something with Gemini,
19:43
whatever that means.
19:45
So you're getting these tie ups in the same way as we saw the Jensen Wang doing a
19:49
deal with Siemens.
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You're now getting Walmart doing a deal with Gemini, which is I think who's that?
19:54
Microsoft.
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I never know which one it is.
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Who's Gemini?
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You're the tech man.
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Sorry, David.
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I don't know.
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I use Copilot and chat VPT.
20:07
That's Microsoft.
20:07
But, I mean, whatever it is, I think businesses beginning to adopt and
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introduce
20:15
AI into a lot of business is which to me is the positive sign.
20:19
Okay, so you're sticking with it.
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I don't know why I ask you.
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It's always the same, which is good.
20:23
But what I'm saying is there's a lot of jostling between it wasn't just biotech.
20:27
It's now you've got to be selective because of the elevated levels of
20:31
valuations.
20:33
That's my opinion.
20:35
But you've got a good portfolio.
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That's good.
20:39
And talking about good portfolios, I was watching LinkedIn the other day and up
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popped
20:41
David Shapiro with the challenge, the 2026 challenge that you got.
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What's it called?
20:47
The Crystal, tell me about it please.
20:49
The Crystal Challenge.
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Crystal Challenge, yeah.
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We're finding sponsors.
20:55
The story behind it in very simple terms is that during COVID I invited 10 people
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on
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Twitter. It was Pitfellion and Julieta and so on just to choose five stocks.
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Let's have an internal competition.
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Give me five stocks for the year and we'll measure it over a year.
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And whoever wins out of the 10 of us, I'll give you a bottle of Christelle champagne,
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which is the top end of
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Louis Rotorat.
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So anyway, five outsiders saw this, one of which is Betsy Skopp,
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who was a musician, and she muscled her way in.
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And there were 15 of us, and she won it, hands down.
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And it was great.
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But what happened, it captured the imagination of other people.
21:39
Lindsay, it's a simple competition.
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Choose five stops.
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That's it.
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And can I do it as an overseas resident?
21:45
Can I still enter?
21:46
Well, they've got to be South African.
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Yeah, of course, anybody.
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South African stocks.
21:52
It has to be South African stocks, but I can enter the competition, can I?
21:55
Yeah, yeah.
21:56
It's a simple entry form on our website.
21:59
There's nothing complicated.
22:00
We don't need verification.
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What do you call it?
22:04
Two-leg verifications.
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Just give us a list.
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Tell us what you do.
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So it's run that way.
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And it just grew from
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15 of us in 2021 to last year we had over
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440.
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Very nice.
22:23
Nearly 450, yeah.
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And I can't believe how sensitive people are to what they choose.
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But what it does do is where it's a good exercise, Lindsay, is that we're talking
22:35
now, okay?
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And we talk about South Africa.
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It's got to be.
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confined to South African stocks.
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We don't allow ETFs or anything like that.
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Just give me five names.
22:46
So, perhaps you'll say to me, oh, I think banks are looking pretty cheap.
22:51
I think the retailers are cheap.
22:53
And we say that now.
22:55
At the end of the year, boy, you have no idea where they'll be.
23:00
And I think that's the lesson.
23:01
And you can't chase them.
23:03
You pick the stocks.
23:04
You choose that you verify what the opening price was on.
23:08
On what date is it?
23:08
When does it start?
23:11
We start on the 1st of February.
23:13
It's real return.
23:14
I mean, it's total return.
23:15
So we add in any benefits that you can get like dividends and, you know, if there's a
23:22
rights issue or something like this,
23:24
we'll adjust.
23:26
There could be a takeover, whatever.
23:28
You know, I adjusted.
23:30
I use fact sets.
23:32
I use their total return formula.
23:34
And so once you've got the spreadsheet up, it runs.
23:36
Now, the variations are incredible.
23:38
I mean, if you think five stocks out of the whole stock market,
23:42
it leaves a lot of choices.
23:45
But what happened is the chaps who won it last year, three different people when I
23:51
say different,
23:52
individual, they weren't connected in any way chose five stocks, five gold stocks
23:58
and ran away with it.
24:01
We had a fork out for three bottles of Three bottles of
24:06
Cristal. Louis Roderick Cristal, very delicious.
24:09
It's going at 6,000-7,000 a bottle.
24:12
Not bad.
24:14
So that's all we do.
24:16
I mean it's simple.
24:17
We allow you to cash out one.
24:20
Sometimes while we do that is sometimes either a share is falling and you say I've
24:27
had enough or alternatively it's running up too high and you say
24:29
I'm good out of here.
24:31
And you can't reinvest it, you just take the cash.
24:32
Otherwise, it becomes an administrative monster.
24:37
Well, that's good fun.
24:37
I'm going to go to SESFIN.
24:39
And I'm the only one who can run it.
24:40
Of course you are.
24:41
What if you oh, no, I never say that.
24:43
SESFINsecurities.co.za or what?
24:47
What's the website?
24:48
Dot com.
24:48
Dot com.
24:49
Yeah, SESFINsecurities.com.
24:51
You'll find it on Crystal Challenge if you look it up there.
24:54
But it's so we've got quite a big community.
24:58
We're getting sponsored and
25:03
There's a certain magazine, I don't want to say this yet because they want to cover
25:09
it.
25:10
We'll give them regular updates on how people are doing and so on.
25:15
For whatever reason, it's the simplest of competitions but it does attract a lot of
25:20
people.
25:20
A lot of young people want to participate.
25:24
That's a good sign though, isn't it?
25:25
Yeah, because they follow it and also they can follow how badly professionals are
25:31
doing.
25:31
Just for the record book, I came about fourth or fifth last year.
25:37
And the irony is that my wife Linda chose Southern Palladium for various reasons
25:44
because my late brother
25:46
was involved in a deal.
25:46
He was acting as a lawyer for them.
25:48
And she chose that which was the best performing stock even though she didn't
25:54
come close to winning.
25:56
It was the best performing stock.
25:56
I chose Copper 360 which was the worst performing stock.
26:00
That was a dog.
26:01
Total dog.
26:03
Went to 20 round a share, I seem to remember, shortly after listing.
26:07
And what is it now?
26:08
Two round or something?
26:09
I don't know.
26:10
Whatever it is.
26:11
Oh, that sounds fun.
26:12
Okay, I'm going to do that.
26:13
That's the fun thing about it.
26:15
You can't change your mind.
26:18
No, you can't.
26:18
Okay.
26:19
And we make sure that we publish the lists all the time so you know where you are.
26:25
Okay, David.
26:26
We've done that.
26:27
We've done tech.
26:28
We've done Trump.
26:29
We've done the Greenspan, not Greenspan, what's his name?
26:32
Powell.
26:33
Jerome Powell.
26:34
Let's talk briefly about football.
26:35
There was no league matches over the weekend in the English Premiership.
26:38
It was the FA Challenge Cup as they call it, the world's oldest and greatest
26:45
knockout competition.
26:47
And it was quite fun.
26:49
Arsenal won.
26:51
The one that I liked of course was Macclesfield beating Crystal Palace.
26:51
But even more...
26:53
And even more enjoyable.
26:54
You remember Crystal Palace won the Cup last year?
26:57
Exactly, they're the holders.
26:58
The first time since 1909 they've been knocked out by a non-league side.
27:02
But the Man United-Brighton game was the one that really got me going because the
27:09
crowd was so miserable at the
27:11
end.
27:13
I mean, I didn't feel sorry for them.
27:15
It serves them right.
27:17
But it was appalling how the mighty have fallen.
27:19
Darren Fletcher in charge of a team worth 500 million quid.
27:23
I know.
27:26
I like to see big names and you like to see these companies doing well.
27:29
I think if I look at Chelsea, if I look at Man United and I look at Spurs, I mean,
27:36
Spurs are abominable.
27:38
They also went out.
27:40
Really,
27:42
the fans go there and they just scream and shout and abuse.
27:50
They're not even taking it in good humour like most companies.
27:54
I think their senses of humour have run out by now, especially if you're a Spurs
27:58
fan.
27:58
I mean, the travesty that they're in the
28:01
UEFA Champions League because they won that other silly little cup is remarkable.
28:07
But yeah, there's three clubs, as you've rightly pointed out, Man United, Chelsea
28:13
and Spurs,
28:15
which should be or their leadership should be ashamed of themselves.
28:17
Poor fans.
28:18
Yeah.
28:18
And you've got Sunderland making it.
28:20
I mean, Sunderland playing great football, whatever, whether they can sustain it or
28:25
not,
28:25
it's probably one season and then they're in trouble again, whatever it is.
28:30
But still,
28:33
Spurs and the other clubs have got so much power and so much money and should be in a
28:40
far better position.
28:42
I don't know.
28:44
There are lots of things lacking there.
28:46
Okay, David, I'm just going to spend my evening now.
28:47
in between watching Liverpool against Barnley, Barnsley, the last FA Cup third
28:50
round game.
28:50
I'm going to start picking some stocks.
28:53
It's very interesting.
28:54
You can't enter twice, can you?
28:55
No.
28:56
Well, you can enter into another name.
28:58
We'd never know.
28:59
You know, you've got a son and a daughter, whatever it is.
29:03
We don't do deep checks.
29:07
We take you at face value.
29:12
David, thank you very much for...
29:14
for your time as always david shapiro is from saturn securities and that was
29:20
shapiro world
29:22
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29:27
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