Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Hoarse Throats & NHL Playoff Best Bets with Nick Martin

Transcript

Hoarse Throats & NHL Playoff Best Bets with Nick Martin · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:13
Speaker 1: Welcome. Yeah, that's what I was fearing. Ye can we
0:18
Speaker 1: keep that unpleased?
0:19
Speaker 2: Oh my god, welcome to Oh my god, I can't
0:23
Speaker 2: even talk. Welcome to the favorites, present to my draftings.
0:26
Speaker 2: The crown is yours. This is a train wreck of
0:29
Speaker 2: an open right here. But hey, we appreciate you hanging
0:32
Speaker 2: out with us. We are an Action network podcast. I'm
0:35
Speaker 2: Brandon Kravitz, your host, who apparently is going through puberty
0:39
Speaker 2: at the worst time imaginable. Back at it with the
0:41
Speaker 2: first lady of the pod, Miss Kendri Middleton, who somehow,
0:45
Speaker 2: some way through this open is keeping it together.
0:47
Speaker 1: So I'm impressed.
0:49
Speaker 2: But on a much more serious note, our hearts are
0:52
Speaker 2: with our favorites, Brother Stucky tragic loss to his family
0:57
Speaker 2: with his dad's passing. Papa stuck longer with us. Our
1:01
Speaker 2: hearts and minds are with you, Stucky. Take as much
1:03
Speaker 2: time as you need. We got you.
1:06
Speaker 1: The loss of a parent is something that.
1:10
Speaker 2: Fortunately I've never had to cope with, but I can't
1:13
Speaker 2: imagine how hard that is. It's really tough. So Kensro,
1:16
Speaker 2: I know you sharing those thoughts and sentiments. Yeah, for sure, Yeah.
1:21
Speaker 1: Tough times.
1:22
Speaker 2: But on a much brighter note his streak is alive.
1:26
Speaker 1: Golden Tempo wins the Derby, so that means.
1:29
Speaker 2: Another year where Stucky is not delivered on a Kentucky
1:32
Speaker 2: Derby winner. In fact, none of us picked the right winner,
1:34
Speaker 2: but we did get some female representation in the winner's circle.
1:39
Speaker 2: Sherry Devo became the first female trainer to win the Derby.
1:42
Speaker 2: So I'm sure mini party at the Middleton.
1:45
Speaker 3: House, it was more than a mini party. I think
1:47
Speaker 3: that I liked every single tweet that I saw about it.
1:49
Speaker 3: I got to be honest, you guys know that I
1:51
Speaker 3: don't love horse racing because I think that animals rule
1:54
Speaker 3: and I know that they're treated really well, but it
1:56
Speaker 3: scares me that they get shot if they get hurt.
1:59
Speaker 1: However, go bab bitch, go babbitch go. How worried were
2:02
Speaker 1: you in great light? Flipped backwards? Oh my god?
2:06
Speaker 3: I saw that on Twitter and I was like, Okay,
2:09
Speaker 3: I need to check out of this immediately.
2:12
Speaker 1: But we lived. Everybody is good. Everything's good to go. Evan.
2:16
Speaker 2: How did you fare in the Derby? And what do
2:18
Speaker 2: you think about this shitty voice I brought to the
2:20
Speaker 2: table today.
2:21
Speaker 4: I was actually just gonna say welcome to the favorites
2:23
Speaker 4: and kind of just do the whole thing at the
2:24
Speaker 4: top again in case anyone didn't hear. But we are here,
2:27
Speaker 4: we are alive. It is all good. I did okay,
2:29
Speaker 4: ies tailed some of Zarrillo stuff. I had Golden Tembo
2:32
Speaker 4: actually for a few bucks, but it didn't really make
2:35
Speaker 4: up much. The worst story of all is I actually
2:38
Speaker 4: had the Superfecta and missed the guy in the third slot,
2:41
Speaker 4: which would have won me ten grand on a ten
2:43
Speaker 4: cent bet.
2:44
Speaker 2: So that's okay, all right, Evan God, Yeah, that's tough.
2:51
Speaker 2: That takes twenty four hours to process.
2:54
Speaker 1: It. Did it? Did completely.
2:57
Speaker 2: I'm glad you've made it out on the other side, Kendra,
3:00
Speaker 2: what's on your mind today?
3:02
Speaker 1: Okay?
3:02
Speaker 3: This is going to be an insane transition. However, Instagram
3:06
Speaker 3: has added an AI info above AI content on their platform,
3:12
Speaker 3: and I want to know what the most boomer thing
3:16
Speaker 3: that you guys wind up doing on the internet is,
3:19
Speaker 3: because for a few weeks now we've been talking about
3:22
Speaker 3: how my best friend's dad cannot tell when AI content
3:26
Speaker 3: exists or what it is, and has been caught a
3:29
Speaker 3: lot recently asking AI girls commenting asking them to peg him.
3:35
Speaker 3: So I want to know like so many videos, mostly
3:38
Speaker 3: AI girls, but like asking to be like dressed up
3:41
Speaker 3: in skirts, and like all of these things in comment sections,
3:44
Speaker 3: and like liking videos. And we've had to tell him
3:46
Speaker 3: that like everyone including his family and co workers can
3:49
Speaker 3: see that he's liking and commenting on these things, and
3:52
Speaker 3: he will not stop doing it. So I want to know,
3:54
Speaker 3: what is, like, the most boomer thing that you do
3:56
Speaker 3: on the internet or the most boomer thing that you've
3:59
Speaker 3: been caught doing on the internet.
4:01
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, first of all, if you don't know
4:03
Speaker 2: what pegging is already, as I did not before we
4:06
Speaker 2: hopped on here, just just avoid of definitely not on
4:12
Speaker 2: a work computer, probably not with the kids around.
4:16
Speaker 1: Just avoid that.
4:18
Speaker 2: The first one that comes to mind for me is
4:21
Speaker 2: whence on your birthday when you get the flood of messages.
4:25
Speaker 1: On your Facebook page.
4:27
Speaker 2: First of all, I still call it a wall sometimes,
4:29
Speaker 2: which is boomer enough, but boomer I will I will
4:34
Speaker 2: make sure to like or comment on every single one,
4:38
Speaker 2: and it definitely feels like that's probably not necessary, but
4:42
Speaker 2: that's pretty boomer Ishue.
4:44
Speaker 1: Okay, Evan, Uh, that is true.
4:47
Speaker 4: On the fact that I don't use my Facebook except
4:50
Speaker 4: for once a year, when I get an email thread
4:52
Speaker 4: that just tells me all the people that have posted
4:54
Speaker 4: on my wall for my birthday, so that that is
4:56
Speaker 4: an accurate statement on that one, I would say the
4:58
Speaker 4: one within the last two years, I decided I wanted
5:01
Speaker 4: to create a burner and I did that for one
5:04
Speaker 4: day and then realize that I don't have time to
5:07
Speaker 4: do a burner and just tweet and do life. So
5:10
Speaker 4: I had a one day burner thing where I was like,
5:13
Speaker 4: I should do this, this is kind of fun, and
5:14
Speaker 4: then I dropped it.
5:16
Speaker 1: That has got to be definitely done.
5:17
Speaker 2: The work I've done the burner thing as well. What
5:19
Speaker 2: was your Did your burner account have a specific theme
5:22
Speaker 2: to it?
5:23
Speaker 4: It was like a gambling stupid account that I was like, oh,
5:26
Speaker 4: this could be fun in my like downtime of like
5:28
Speaker 4: just screwing around. And then I did it for like
5:30
Speaker 4: a day and then I was like, I want to
5:33
Speaker 4: do other things.
5:35
Speaker 3: I get got by the fake aggregate accounts more often
5:37
Speaker 3: than I'd like to admit.
5:38
Speaker 4: I gotta be hon it.
5:40
Speaker 1: Like all the time.
5:42
Speaker 2: I think, as long as none of us copy and
5:44
Speaker 2: paste do like the if you copy and paste this,
5:46
Speaker 2: then you're going to live for another ten years. I
5:48
Speaker 2: cannot believe that that is still going on. Those are
5:51
Speaker 2: email threads from the nineties.
5:53
Speaker 3: So difficult when Twitter, and I think that they did
5:56
Speaker 3: this on purpose to make us all dummer. Took away
5:58
Speaker 3: like the check marks of like actual journalists. So now
6:01
Speaker 3: you see someone who has like forty thousand followers purpose though, yeah,
6:07
Speaker 3: and I agree, but like they have forty thousand followers
6:09
Speaker 3: and they like tag some like bull crap and like
6:11
Speaker 3: their bio about where they work, and they tweet something
6:13
Speaker 3: and you're like, Okay, is this real or is this
6:15
Speaker 3: not real? And I get got by that far more
6:17
Speaker 3: often than I would like to admit. But it's hard,
6:20
Speaker 3: like and I am like the generation that should not
6:23
Speaker 3: be getting got by that, but it's it's difficult, and
6:25
Speaker 3: I wish that they would bring back like actual check
6:28
Speaker 3: marks of journalists or like verified sources, but they just
6:32
Speaker 3: want us to be stupid, you know.
6:34
Speaker 2: I feel like there's a correlation here between getting god
6:37
Speaker 2: by aggregate accounts and sports betting is that we have
6:41
Speaker 2: to in this business put everything through the filter of
6:46
Speaker 2: is this line bullshit? And you kind of have to
6:48
Speaker 2: do the same thing on Twitter. So if you just
6:51
Speaker 2: start thinking of it that way, like rather than just
6:54
Speaker 2: looking at something and saying, well, obviously this is true,
6:58
Speaker 2: like try and see through it a little bit and
7:01
Speaker 2: there you go. Well, social media, sports betting marriage for you?
7:06
Speaker 4: Why you gotta have the notes on exactly?
7:08
Speaker 3: I do have my notifications on, but I feel like
7:11
Speaker 3: I get ten thousand notifications constantly because I run so
7:14
Speaker 3: many different accounts that there's no way I'm scrolling through
7:17
Speaker 3: that if it's not important. I actually get so many
7:19
Speaker 3: notifications that if you're important in my life, you have
7:22
Speaker 3: an emoji next to your name, so that if I
7:24
Speaker 3: see an emoji pop up, I know that I need
7:26
Speaker 3: to respond to you.
7:27
Speaker 4: I do think similar.
7:28
Speaker 1: Does anyone on this podcast have an emoji? Yeah?
7:32
Speaker 3: You and Gifford deal.
7:34
Speaker 1: Yes, I don't even want to know what my emoji is.
7:37
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I'm just gonna let you live with that.
7:39
Speaker 2: Okay, Kend's pounding the glass right now, she's ready. We're
7:44
Speaker 2: talking hockey Stanley Cup playoffs in just a moment, with
7:47
Speaker 2: Nick Martin joining the shell.
7:48
Speaker 1: But first a word about DraftKings.
7:51
Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast has partnered with Draftking Sportsbook, where new
7:54
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7:57
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8:03
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8:08
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8:31
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8:32
Speaker 2: Yours first round over and done with. On to Round
8:36
Speaker 2: two with the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nick Martin formerly of
8:39
Speaker 2: the Line Change Podcast. He's been covering the betting side
8:43
Speaker 2: of hockey via Action Network for the better part of
8:46
Speaker 2: six years. Nick, Welcome to the show. I promise I
8:49
Speaker 2: don't always sound like this.
8:51
Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks for having me. Sounds like you're really fighting it,
8:54
Speaker 5: which you know, I guess there's a lot of guys
8:57
Speaker 5: in the NHL are this year, So it's fitting because
9:00
Speaker 5: you know, I've enjoyed listening you to try to grind
9:02
Speaker 5: through these intros so far.
9:04
Speaker 1: Thank you, well, thank you.
9:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, as you are trying to grind through the hockey postseason,
9:09
Speaker 2: which may be even tougher.
9:11
Speaker 1: I'm very much a hockey novice.
9:13
Speaker 2: Kendra and Evan are going to carry me through this,
9:16
Speaker 2: not just for the vocal cords of it, so you're
9:18
Speaker 2: gonna have to walk me through some of this slowly.
9:20
Speaker 2: What was your assessment as we look back at Round
9:22
Speaker 2: one Surprise exits teams that could be poised for a
9:25
Speaker 2: big run because of the way that they played.
9:27
Speaker 1: What did we learn about hockey from a macro level.
9:31
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think as the relative to some years,
9:36
Speaker 5: it feels like this is setting up to be a
9:37
Speaker 5: pretty chalky year in the NHL. Colorado was bordered like
9:42
Speaker 5: one of the bigger favorites we see in the NHL
9:44
Speaker 5: or in the time I've been doing this. Entering the postseason,
9:47
Speaker 5: they looked really good sweeping the Kings, so they're kind
9:50
Speaker 5: of looking like a bit of a wagon out West
9:53
Speaker 5: and then Carolina is kind of interesting, and I think
9:55
Speaker 5: it's an interesting talking point in terms of handicapping the NHL,
10:00
Speaker 5: because they look really good every year that it feels
10:03
Speaker 5: like we're at this point with Carolina in Round two
10:05
Speaker 5: where they're becoming an overwhelming favorite. Their analytics are always unreal,
10:09
Speaker 5: so it's hard to even want to bet into them.
10:12
Speaker 5: I'll be annoyed if they do win, because I've bet
10:14
Speaker 5: on this team winning a lot, and my takes entering
10:17
Speaker 5: the postseason were that I kind of thought people were
10:19
Speaker 5: writing them off just because they've failed historically. But I
10:23
Speaker 5: don't know if failing to Stanley Cup winning Florida Panthers
10:26
Speaker 5: teams is really that big of a knock. I feel
10:29
Speaker 5: like for a lot of the kind of more casual fans,
10:32
Speaker 5: people were low on Carolina because of that, which I
10:35
Speaker 5: didn't really think it made a lot of sense. The
10:37
Speaker 5: East has a lot of teams that are entirely unproven
10:39
Speaker 5: this year, so to me, it felt kind of unfair
10:42
Speaker 5: to knock the one team that's kind of been been
10:45
Speaker 5: getting to the conference finals and failing and choking in
10:48
Speaker 5: some people's eyes, when teams like Buffalo and Montreal are
10:52
Speaker 5: kind of just unproven altogether, which I don't personally hold
10:55
Speaker 5: as a knock. But yeah, I mean, it does seem
10:58
Speaker 5: pretty likely that it might just be Carolina versus Colorado
11:01
Speaker 5: relative to some years when at this point it's already
11:04
Speaker 5: pretty hard to imagine what the final might be.
11:07
Speaker 3: What was the biggest surprise to you in Round one?
11:09
Speaker 3: I think it's easy to probably say Edmonton, just because
11:12
Speaker 3: the amount of talent and how absent the Ducks have
11:14
Speaker 3: been from the postseason for quite some time. I probably
11:17
Speaker 3: would lean Dallas. I mean, that was my favorite series
11:19
Speaker 3: that we've gotten so far. It was physical, it was violent,
11:22
Speaker 3: it was everything that you could want in a Stanley
11:23
Speaker 3: Cup playoff game. But what were some of your big
11:26
Speaker 3: surprise their takeaways from Round one?
11:28
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have to say Edmonton, And from a handicapping perspective,
11:32
Speaker 5: it is one E lost on. I'd kind of been
11:34
Speaker 5: big on Edmonton the last two years. I'd done good
11:37
Speaker 5: betting into the narrative and being the one saying they're
11:40
Speaker 5: going to turn it around, you know, after some lackluster
11:43
Speaker 5: regular seasons. I kind of thought we'd see the same
11:45
Speaker 5: thing this year. There's even more talk like this team
11:48
Speaker 5: is flawed and all that, and I was kind of
11:51
Speaker 5: expecting them to ramp it up, and I thought the
11:53
Speaker 5: Ducks were a really good matchup. I thought the Ducks
11:55
Speaker 5: were the second worst team to make the playoffs, so
11:58
Speaker 5: I was big on the Oilers. I think I saw
12:01
Speaker 5: a lot of pros were really hammering Edmonton. I think
12:04
Speaker 5: people kind of were buying into that, and it was
12:06
Speaker 5: one of the ones where I think all the other
12:08
Speaker 5: observers that hated on them all year and kind of
12:10
Speaker 5: were just like, this team is flawed were proven right.
12:13
Speaker 5: I was definitely on the wrong side of that.
12:15
Speaker 1: I think David's never the Bride, Never the Bride.
12:18
Speaker 5: I thought it would be kind of the same as
12:20
Speaker 5: other postseasons, and it definitely wasn't. They were just completely
12:23
Speaker 5: out of gas. And I feel like so often when
12:25
Speaker 5: you see a favorite like that fall in the NHL,
12:28
Speaker 5: there's some bad puck luck involved, and they really just
12:31
Speaker 5: did not have it. So, yeah, I'd be for sure
12:34
Speaker 5: with you on that one.
12:35
Speaker 1: I thought.
12:36
Speaker 5: I mean, I guess the signs were there, but they
12:38
Speaker 5: were kind of there that the Oilers might do this
12:40
Speaker 5: the last two years, and that's kind of what tricked
12:42
Speaker 5: me up. I thought their guys would click into gear. Obviously,
12:45
Speaker 5: McDavid playing on one leg definitely didn't help, but I
12:49
Speaker 5: don't know if that was the full fledged determining factor either.
12:53
Speaker 4: I'm curious about home court home ice advantage. I mean,
12:57
Speaker 4: we talked about this a lot. Wasn't beat in the NBA,
12:59
Speaker 4: but from an NHL perspective, this year so far, twenty
13:03
Speaker 4: four and twenty four in the playoffs, home teams and
13:06
Speaker 4: road teams exactly split. Well, last year, home teams dominated
13:09
Speaker 4: fifty two and thirty four. I'm just curious if you
13:11
Speaker 4: have any sort of assertion onto why maybe road teams
13:15
Speaker 4: are having a better start to these playoffs. Do you
13:17
Speaker 4: think it's just a parody. We had a bunch of
13:19
Speaker 4: dogs win in the first round, and you talked about Colorado,
13:21
Speaker 4: But do you think that's kind of a part of it?
13:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I like this question a lot. I
13:26
Speaker 5: definitely think that on average, homeice advantage is over baked
13:30
Speaker 5: into the lines in the NHL. This is a trend
13:32
Speaker 5: I've ridden with the whole time I've been at action
13:35
Speaker 5: In general. You know, I'm never the kind of person
13:37
Speaker 5: to just blindly back trends, but my belief is kind
13:40
Speaker 5: of always, you know, if you can pick some of
13:42
Speaker 5: these game twos where team like the Ducks or plus
13:45
Speaker 5: one thirty, I bet when it swings back Dan, I'm
13:47
Speaker 5: it'll probably be you know, Vegas minus one twenty or
13:51
Speaker 5: whatever it is, maybe minus one fifteen. So I always
13:54
Speaker 5: think home ice is over baked in to look further
13:57
Speaker 5: back into the trend road team since twenty five fifteen
14:00
Speaker 5: twenty sixteen are three hundred and twenty two and three
14:03
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty six with the plus six point four
14:05
Speaker 5: percent ROI. So basically I think that, you know, once
14:10
Speaker 5: we get to this time of year, teams are capable
14:11
Speaker 5: of getting to their game more or less the same way,
14:14
Speaker 5: no matter what. In the regular season, I think home
14:16
Speaker 5: iice advantage has a lot more to do with the
14:18
Speaker 5: traveling spots teams are getting into, you know, a place
14:21
Speaker 5: like Vegas. They might be getting in at three am
14:22
Speaker 5: after playing a game if it's a backpack, and then
14:24
Speaker 5: all of a sudden, home I savantage is gigantic. So
14:28
Speaker 5: I think the fact that they're on even travel and
14:30
Speaker 5: rest schedules kind of makes it a little more neutral.
14:33
Speaker 5: They're all coming into the game as geared up, as
14:35
Speaker 5: ready to play as possible. So yeah, my general take
14:38
Speaker 5: is I always kind of lean with roadsides and try
14:41
Speaker 5: to make sure I'm not laying bigger numbers on home
14:43
Speaker 5: teams when home ie advantage is kind of clearly being
14:47
Speaker 5: part of the reason that they're as favored as they are.
14:50
Speaker 4: That line on Carolina, Oh sorry, Ken, go ahead, No,
14:52
Speaker 4: I was just say that line on Carolina last night
14:54
Speaker 4: was like the biggest we've seen in the second round
14:57
Speaker 4: in a little while, and they almost ended up losing.
14:59
Speaker 6: So yeah, definitely could have lost I was.
15:01
Speaker 5: I mean, I think if you had Philly there, you
15:04
Speaker 5: saw everything you wanted to see out of that big
15:06
Speaker 5: of a fit underdog.
15:07
Speaker 6: So definitely.
15:08
Speaker 3: One Another thing I think is hard betting on the
15:12
Speaker 3: NHL is they're so lenient about what they allow teams
15:15
Speaker 3: to put on injury reports, Like you're allowed to just
15:17
Speaker 3: say lower body or upper body injury, and it makes
15:20
Speaker 3: it sound a lot nicer than probably things that players
15:23
Speaker 3: are dealing with. I mean, we see whenever a series
15:26
Speaker 3: ends or player like teams get eliminated or once the
15:28
Speaker 3: Cup ends, people are pretty much playing with their guts
15:31
Speaker 3: on the ice. Do you think that there's like a
15:33
Speaker 3: way to kind of handicap something that someone might be
15:36
Speaker 3: dealing with, or do you kind of just have to
15:38
Speaker 3: take it with a grain of salt, because especially in
15:40
Speaker 3: a year with the Olympics and so many extra games
15:42
Speaker 3: on a lot of these guys' bodies. I think that
15:44
Speaker 3: that's something that I have a hard time looking at
15:46
Speaker 3: injury reports with Do you look into that or do
15:49
Speaker 3: you just kind of let it ride with whatever you're
15:51
Speaker 3: feeling at the time.
15:53
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think if you're someone who's just completely modeling
15:56
Speaker 5: the games, it becomes tricky because it's like, all right,
15:58
Speaker 5: you gotta go in downgrade McDavid or whatever something like
16:02
Speaker 5: that last round. So you definitely have to be cognizant
16:06
Speaker 5: of those adjustments. Like you said, there's a lot of
16:08
Speaker 5: times where guys they might play, but they might be
16:10
Speaker 5: playing at half strength or worse. So it definitely is
16:16
Speaker 5: tricky in that regard. I think normally in the regular season,
16:20
Speaker 5: the NHL injury reporting and the goaltending reporting is actually
16:23
Speaker 5: kind of a big edge for sharper betters because you
16:26
Speaker 5: can really start to get a feel for when teams
16:29
Speaker 5: will go with their backup or someone may or may
16:32
Speaker 5: not play. So I like it a lot in the
16:35
Speaker 5: regular season, I don't mind it in the playoffs. Like
16:39
Speaker 5: with everything, lines have gotten sharper over the last few years,
16:42
Speaker 5: but the goaltending is one thing that still really surprises
16:45
Speaker 5: me from odds makers in the regular season because there's
16:47
Speaker 5: so many spots where it's obvious a backup was always
16:50
Speaker 5: going to play, and they'll post look ahead numbers and
16:53
Speaker 5: then once the backups confirm to play, all the prices
16:56
Speaker 5: will move, so it's like they still didn't expect it.
16:58
Speaker 5: So for whatever reason, that's still one thing that they're
17:01
Speaker 5: just behind on. I don't think you'd see if I
17:04
Speaker 5: mean if it was like the NFL a higher handle,
17:07
Speaker 5: I don't think you'd be seeing things like that where
17:09
Speaker 5: a backup was always likely to play the second like
17:12
Speaker 5: of a back to back, and then that gets confirmed
17:14
Speaker 5: all the prices swing. So yeah, there's definitely some It
17:17
Speaker 5: gets tougher in the playoffs, but I think it's there
17:19
Speaker 5: are spots where it's easier to find a soft edge
17:22
Speaker 5: in the NHL than other places.
17:24
Speaker 6: For sure.
17:25
Speaker 1: On that front.
17:26
Speaker 2: With talking about handle, everybody that you talk to that
17:30
Speaker 2: watches sports loves the Stanley Cup playoffs. I watch almost
17:33
Speaker 2: zero hockey throughout the regular season and as much time
17:36
Speaker 2: as I can devote to it, I will watch postseason
17:38
Speaker 2: hockey because it's just it's phenomenal. It's one of the
17:42
Speaker 2: best post sings that we have in sports. How much
17:44
Speaker 2: do we see the handle change? Do you know that
17:47
Speaker 2: that sort of information of how much we see that
17:50
Speaker 2: shift from regular season a big game in prime time
17:54
Speaker 2: versus what we see in the postseason?
17:56
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, probably around and Evan might know more
17:59
Speaker 5: than me, but I would imagine around eight x or
18:01
Speaker 5: ten x. Like it's I feel like for the average people,
18:04
Speaker 5: it seems like Okye gets a lot of credit for
18:06
Speaker 5: having such a good postseason. I'm biased, but I definitely
18:10
Speaker 5: think it really is the product right there with anything else.
18:14
Speaker 5: But during the regular seasons, it just feels like fans
18:17
Speaker 5: are so checked out on average, and there's a million
18:21
Speaker 5: things I can complain about with how the league markets itself,
18:24
Speaker 5: but they just love these huge, huge slates, and then
18:27
Speaker 5: there's nights like there's Friday nights with nothing when there's
18:29
Speaker 5: no other sports going on. So I do think in
18:32
Speaker 5: the regular season the handle would be just on average
18:34
Speaker 5: so much so much less.
18:38
Speaker 2: It's something I always struggle with in that regard, and
18:40
Speaker 2: we talk about this when the NFL gets to the playoffs,
18:44
Speaker 2: especially when you get to the Super Bowl and even
18:46
Speaker 2: your grandmother's betting on the game, or the NCAA tournament
18:49
Speaker 2: where people jump in similar to hockey where they're not
18:51
Speaker 2: watching all year and then all of a sudden they
18:53
Speaker 2: hop in for someone like you that bets the sport
18:56
Speaker 2: throughout the course of the season. Does that create more
18:59
Speaker 2: or less buying opportunities?
19:02
Speaker 5: I think, I mean, the most clearcut one that might
19:05
Speaker 5: stick out to me is I'm huge, and I feel
19:08
Speaker 5: like I know Stucky is as well. I feel like
19:11
Speaker 5: every time I see him, wagga hockey bet, this is
19:13
Speaker 5: what it is. But the totals later in series is
19:16
Speaker 5: just gold. Like I feel like that's the one angle.
19:19
Speaker 5: Year after year, I'm always just betting first period unders
19:22
Speaker 5: in Game seven, and it always feels like regardless of
19:26
Speaker 5: where they open it, sharper money brings it down, but
19:29
Speaker 5: they never quite close where I'd expect. So I wonder
19:32
Speaker 5: I think that might be one example of what you're
19:34
Speaker 5: saying where maybe I think some of these people aren't like, Okay,
19:37
Speaker 5: I want to bet under one a half goals in
19:38
Speaker 5: the first period at minus one forty. But I feel
19:42
Speaker 5: like to people who've seen it year after year and
19:44
Speaker 5: are really into it, like those trans Montreal last series
19:48
Speaker 5: versus Tampa Bay was I think about as much of
19:51
Speaker 5: a slam dunk as there was. I was almost surprised
19:53
Speaker 5: that it didn't end up minus one sixty minus one fifty.
19:57
Speaker 5: So that could be the one example. But I don't
20:00
Speaker 5: know if it's quite like the NFL, where like for
20:02
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl there's these crazy props and they're like,
20:05
Speaker 5: you know, the no side can hold a ton of value.
20:08
Speaker 5: I don't think there's like stuff like that for the NHL,
20:11
Speaker 5: but yeah, And I think the other one is probably
20:16
Speaker 5: some of the player props. The overs start to get
20:18
Speaker 5: pretty juiced this time of year, so maybe that's a
20:20
Speaker 5: bit of a function of that.
20:21
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, the NFL is probably not the best
20:25
Speaker 2: example because it's so heavily bet by the general public
20:28
Speaker 2: throughout the regular season, even though you see an incline
20:31
Speaker 2: come the postseason and then and then definitely in the
20:34
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. It's like it's it's not like you don't
20:36
Speaker 2: have what you would consider phish money in the market
20:40
Speaker 2: throughout the regular season.
20:41
Speaker 1: To your point on unders.
20:42
Speaker 2: I was looking back the last couple of Days seven
20:45
Speaker 2: and one games are seven and one to the under
20:48
Speaker 2: over the last eight playoff games. So I guess if
20:50
Speaker 2: you're just gonna bet, just blindly hit the button. I mean,
20:54
Speaker 2: I guess you're just betting unders at this point, right.
20:57
Speaker 5: Well, the thing is, the end of the series is
21:00
Speaker 5: a lot different than the early part of a series.
21:03
Speaker 5: The tail end of the series, refs start putting the
21:05
Speaker 5: whistles away, players start trying to like they're way less
21:08
Speaker 5: willing to take a borderline penalty. Early in the series,
21:11
Speaker 5: there's a lot of like, all right, well I'm gonna
21:13
Speaker 5: do this. It's gonna be borderline. It might get a penalty,
21:15
Speaker 5: but I also might get a good shot in on
21:17
Speaker 5: this guy. And then also it's just in more open style,
21:21
Speaker 5: teams aren't as accustomed to how to defend the other one.
21:25
Speaker 5: And I think it's also kind of just a mindset thing.
21:28
Speaker 5: And I mean, you see this in all sports. But
21:29
Speaker 5: by game seven, I feel like players are just playing
21:32
Speaker 5: really tight. They don't want to be the one who
21:33
Speaker 5: kind of ends up making that season ending mistake. So
21:36
Speaker 5: it's a lot of safe plays. The games are just
21:38
Speaker 5: really structured so there's spots. I actually bet first period
21:43
Speaker 5: under in Minnesota Colorado game one, because both of them
21:46
Speaker 5: are pretty strong defensively, I think more so than they
21:48
Speaker 5: were getting credit, and it was just completely wide open,
21:52
Speaker 5: So I went against kind of what I believe in
21:54
Speaker 5: on that one. Still wouldn't be surprised if it's a
21:56
Speaker 5: little lower scoring tonight. But yeah, usually you can kind
21:58
Speaker 5: of see the point of series where they start to
22:00
Speaker 5: really tighten up, and Game six and seven generally, I'm
22:03
Speaker 5: pretty huge. I'm just trying to get in on some
22:05
Speaker 5: unders right away. It feels like we see the same
22:07
Speaker 5: thing every time. The totals open wherever you know is
22:11
Speaker 5: appropriate five and a half, and then the totals just
22:14
Speaker 5: get completely juiced, and you know, we start to see
22:17
Speaker 5: some of the rare fives. So I don't mind that
22:20
Speaker 5: trend overall, But in general, like you, like you said,
22:23
Speaker 5: out of the last eight games, however, many of those
22:25
Speaker 5: were from the last series though, when they were like
22:27
Speaker 5: game six seven, So yeah, in general, it's something I
22:30
Speaker 5: like to lean into more at the end of the series.
22:34
Speaker 3: I want to talk about the Sabers series in a second,
22:36
Speaker 3: but before we do that, I think it's only fair
22:38
Speaker 3: that we talk about goaltending. I think the general public
22:41
Speaker 3: and Sharps is well loved to kind of ride a
22:43
Speaker 3: hawk goalie. Is there anybody that you are super on
22:46
Speaker 3: at this point in the playoffs that you might be
22:49
Speaker 3: able to back all the way? I mean, I know
22:50
Speaker 3: that you said that it's a chalky season, but is
22:52
Speaker 3: there any goalie that you are like, all right, I'm
22:54
Speaker 3: going to ride and die with this goalie through, you know,
22:56
Speaker 3: however long they're in this series.
22:59
Speaker 6: Well, that's what's so tough.
23:01
Speaker 5: And Rob Pozzola put out a really good article right
23:04
Speaker 5: at the start of the playoffs, and I think it
23:06
Speaker 5: proved round one. You could just see how accurate it was.
23:09
Speaker 5: He did a deep dive into how little correlation there
23:12
Speaker 5: is between regular season success for goaltenders and trying to
23:16
Speaker 5: figure out who's going to get hot in the postseason.
23:19
Speaker 5: I think a big part of it is it too,
23:20
Speaker 5: like which teams end up kind of playing defensively well,
23:24
Speaker 5: a lot of the times that comes down to which
23:26
Speaker 5: passes you're limiting a huge factor. And I think this
23:29
Speaker 5: is one thing that's harder to rate for people who
23:32
Speaker 5: don't watch hockey a lot, but say percentage drops drastically
23:36
Speaker 5: when there's pre shot movement, so if players and I
23:38
Speaker 5: mean it's obvious enough, but a lot of it is
23:40
Speaker 5: like you're trying to take away situations where a goalie
23:44
Speaker 5: has to move east west because all of a sudden,
23:46
Speaker 5: that's when the shooter has so much more net to
23:48
Speaker 5: look at, which might be a little harder to see
23:50
Speaker 5: on TV versus pressure shots coming from the outside. So
23:55
Speaker 5: in general, I think it's hard to handicap which goalies
23:57
Speaker 5: are going to get hot. I think that's part of
23:59
Speaker 5: the reason why if you had asked me this two
24:01
Speaker 5: days ago, I would have said, maybe Walstatt was a
24:03
Speaker 5: guy you could ride all the way. I thought he
24:05
Speaker 5: was a decent consmit. Bet there's a chance he won't
24:07
Speaker 5: even start tonight after game one. So in general, predicting
24:12
Speaker 5: goaltending is pretty volatile. Andre Bassilevski's probably gonna win the
24:16
Speaker 5: Vesna this year. I didn't really think he deserved it,
24:18
Speaker 5: but he got outplayed by Yak Ofpdobis in round one.
24:21
Speaker 5: There's a lot of instances like this, So I mean,
24:25
Speaker 5: there's some obvious ones, like people thought the Oiler's goaltending
24:28
Speaker 5: was shaky.
24:29
Speaker 6: That proved right.
24:30
Speaker 5: But I also think people kind of forget all the
24:34
Speaker 5: other times where it's just random guys kind of getting hot.
24:37
Speaker 5: Frederick Anderson had a really good series Round one. He's
24:40
Speaker 5: been known as a playoff choker, so it's kind of
24:42
Speaker 5: just you got to take it with a grain of salt.
24:45
Speaker 5: I think it's a little risky to be too concrete
24:47
Speaker 5: on being like for sure this team is a huge
24:49
Speaker 5: goaltending edge that they can ride all the way because
24:52
Speaker 5: it's just really.
24:53
Speaker 6: Tough to predict.
24:54
Speaker 5: It's, you know, every year it's kind of just whoever
24:57
Speaker 5: getting hot, and people kind of forget all the instances
25:00
Speaker 5: where it's just like a no name is the one
25:02
Speaker 5: who ends up doing it. So even last night, I
25:05
Speaker 5: kind of got into the idea that Carter Hart looked
25:07
Speaker 5: really shaky in Round one.
25:09
Speaker 6: He had a great game.
25:10
Speaker 5: So it's just one of those things. To me, it's just,
25:15
Speaker 5: if anything, more volatile than any other part of the game.
25:17
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that's how Edmonton kind of got
25:20
Speaker 3: bit in the asses that even before the season started
25:22
Speaker 3: they knew that they needed another goaltender, and I don't
25:24
Speaker 3: think that they did as much as they could have
25:26
Speaker 3: about it. But as far as value and series go,
25:28
Speaker 3: I think the Sabers are probably the series that has
25:31
Speaker 3: the most valuable value for like casual gamblers. But the
25:35
Speaker 3: thing is is that speaking of goaltending, we saw UPL
25:37
Speaker 3: get pulled for Alex Lyon. I think that that's probably
25:40
Speaker 3: where they're going to wind up sticking until maybe he
25:43
Speaker 3: kind of chokes and they have to go back to UPL.
25:45
Speaker 3: But what do you think about this series as like
25:47
Speaker 3: a preview and value and everything, Because the Sabers looked
25:49
Speaker 3: getta both through the first three games against the Bruins,
25:52
Speaker 3: they kind of choked that away, and then we see
25:54
Speaker 3: them come out in Game four and absolutely just put
25:56
Speaker 3: on a clinic against the Bruins. I thought that that
25:58
Speaker 3: could have wound up going to a game seven. But
26:00
Speaker 3: I know that they could be beatable. They're young, they're fast,
26:02
Speaker 3: and that's kind of their game. If a team goes
26:04
Speaker 3: out there and kind of out physicals them, I think
26:07
Speaker 3: that they could be in serious trouble. But what do
26:08
Speaker 3: you think about the value in kind of maybe getting
26:11
Speaker 3: on the habs here.
26:13
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this will be the best series. I
26:15
Speaker 5: don't think that's a bold take. Montreal Series Round one
26:19
Speaker 5: was the best one. I was really low on the
26:21
Speaker 5: Bruins this series or this whole year, I thought they
26:24
Speaker 5: were a complete fraud. I think everything they did offensively
26:29
Speaker 5: was kind of what I wrote entering Round one, which
26:31
Speaker 5: proved to be really right. They seemed like one of
26:34
Speaker 5: the most overvalued offensive teams, just sky high shooting percentage.
26:38
Speaker 5: Nobody thought that their roster had much talent outside of
26:41
Speaker 5: the top line entering the year, and it was hard
26:43
Speaker 5: to pinpoint what kind of made them good offensively. So
26:48
Speaker 5: I thought Buffalo probably could have easily won in five games.
26:51
Speaker 6: It was a pretty good showing in Round one.
26:53
Speaker 5: But you're kind of trying to weigh here how much
26:56
Speaker 5: did they prove versus I mean, they earned a good draw,
26:58
Speaker 5: they won the division, but they got what I think
27:01
Speaker 5: was the worst team in the playoffs, So that's kind
27:03
Speaker 5: of the case for Montreal. For me here, they obviously
27:07
Speaker 5: proved a lot versus Tampa Bay. Not exactly a pretty
27:10
Speaker 5: performance in Game seven, but the rest of the series,
27:12
Speaker 5: I think they defended much better than anyone would have
27:15
Speaker 5: expected and obviously proved oddsmakers very wrong. So I don't
27:23
Speaker 5: really have a huge lean in terms of a side here.
27:25
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a much more open
27:28
Speaker 5: series than what Montreal was in last round Buffalo even
27:33
Speaker 5: last series. I think part of that was the way
27:35
Speaker 5: the Bruins were trying to play. They played pretty passively.
27:38
Speaker 5: I think they kind of tried to lean into locking
27:39
Speaker 5: it down. So I think it's a different look for
27:42
Speaker 5: both teams here. And the one angle that I do like,
27:45
Speaker 5: I like Cole Cawfield to get a shot or two
27:47
Speaker 5: shots in every game of the series. At plus two hundred,
27:50
Speaker 5: I think it is a good look. In four of
27:52
Speaker 5: the game's last series, he didn't get two shots, so
27:55
Speaker 5: obviously that shows you know it's tricky. But Tampa Bay
27:59
Speaker 5: has their defended extremely well. It was a lot of
28:03
Speaker 5: just both sides chipping it in, a lot of support
28:05
Speaker 5: through the middle, and Caufield's line did nothing at even strength.
28:09
Speaker 5: But they also spent a lot of time versus Sorelli's
28:11
Speaker 5: unit and Genzel's line, which are two of the better
28:14
Speaker 5: defensive defensive offensive units in the league. So I think
28:20
Speaker 5: that this is going to be a lot more open.
28:21
Speaker 5: I think Montreal's top line will have a much better
28:24
Speaker 5: chance of doing some damage, So I feel like that
28:27
Speaker 5: number has a lot to do with the way last
28:29
Speaker 5: series went. I think this is gonna be a lot different.
28:31
Speaker 5: There was a stretch where Cawfield had two shots on
28:34
Speaker 5: goal twenty two games in a row. I think it
28:38
Speaker 5: was a both ended five games before the postseason. He
28:41
Speaker 5: was on fire fifty one goals this year, so I
28:44
Speaker 5: think a lot of him just kind of getting completely
28:46
Speaker 5: shut down last series had to do with the way
28:48
Speaker 5: that round played out and Tampa's personnel and specific So
28:52
Speaker 5: not really trying to knock Buffalo all together, but I
28:56
Speaker 5: just think that for Cawfield and Suzuki in specific, this
28:58
Speaker 5: should be a much easier series for them to do
29:00
Speaker 5: some damage.
29:02
Speaker 4: To offer some data behind the conversation, we had a
29:04
Speaker 4: few minutes ago nine and three unders in games five
29:07
Speaker 4: through seven so far in this playoffs, and thirty nine
29:10
Speaker 4: and twenty six of the last three years, so definitely
29:13
Speaker 4: something we've seen recently. Honestly, nick I had a handicapping
29:16
Speaker 4: question that I was just curious about. So so far
29:18
Speaker 4: in this year's playoffs, teams to win by one goal
29:21
Speaker 4: twenty four times, teams to win by more than one
29:24
Speaker 4: goal twenty five times. So like when you're handicapping looking
29:27
Speaker 4: at the money line versus the puck line, in some
29:29
Speaker 4: of these games, and even like a dog as a
29:31
Speaker 4: puck line when an alternate spread, Like, is that what's
29:34
Speaker 4: the handicap strategy looking there? Because that's something I kind
29:36
Speaker 4: of struggle with or wrestle with on a daily basis.
29:40
Speaker 5: Yeah, in general, I'll just play sides, just kiney line
29:44
Speaker 5: straight up. This is actually one thing I tried to
29:48
Speaker 5: get to some extent. I'll actually not even want to
29:50
Speaker 5: post them to the action app as much, but just
29:53
Speaker 5: because I feel like people are so low on laying
29:57
Speaker 5: big money favorites in the NHL, you always just want
30:01
Speaker 5: to do the puck line. I did take a dive
30:03
Speaker 5: last season throughout the entire regular season, and money line
30:07
Speaker 5: favorites between minus one to forty and minus two hundred
30:09
Speaker 5: were actually more profitable just playing them straight up than
30:12
Speaker 5: the puck line.
30:13
Speaker 6: So it's one of those things.
30:15
Speaker 5: I feel like it's so ugly when you bet like
30:17
Speaker 5: a minus two hundred in the NHL and lose, right,
30:20
Speaker 5: But there's actually more instances where you lay the puck
30:23
Speaker 5: line and lose in that regard, or at least last
30:26
Speaker 5: year there was.
30:26
Speaker 6: So Yeah, I.
30:28
Speaker 5: Don't really have a clear lean one way or the other.
30:30
Speaker 5: There's the odd spot where all think it's kind of
30:32
Speaker 5: a volatile game and maybe play like a reverse puck
30:35
Speaker 5: line or something like that. But in general, yeah, I
30:39
Speaker 5: don't really have like too much to say on the trends.
30:41
Speaker 5: I think they're you know, kind of just play out
30:44
Speaker 5: as you would expect based off the odds.
30:46
Speaker 1: Got it go ahead of it.
30:49
Speaker 4: No, I was just gonna say, the only reason I
30:50
Speaker 4: ever even look at it is more to say that
30:53
Speaker 4: desperation in the playoffs usually lead to like them allowing
30:57
Speaker 4: more goals or being okay, giving up more goals at
31:00
Speaker 4: the ends of games, and I'm not sure that's priced
31:02
Speaker 4: as even as a season.
31:05
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think definitely an elimination games that can be
31:07
Speaker 5: th teams will pull their goalie down three in the
31:10
Speaker 5: in elimination games, if it comes to that. I think
31:13
Speaker 5: it's not a situation get to see very much because,
31:16
Speaker 5: like we've talked about, those games usually end up being
31:19
Speaker 5: pretty damn tightly contested those others. Yeah, and then that's
31:23
Speaker 5: the other thing, Like I I do kind of lean
31:26
Speaker 5: with the first period under We've seen it a lot
31:27
Speaker 5: this season or this postseason. I didn't pull up the data,
31:30
Speaker 5: but a lot of the games that have been higher
31:32
Speaker 5: scoring have just been just blown up late, just sequences
31:36
Speaker 5: where there's like team scores a six on five goal,
31:39
Speaker 5: then there's an empty net or whatever it is. And
31:42
Speaker 5: the other thing is, you know, early in a game,
31:44
Speaker 5: if the team gets one goaliad, the opponent won't really
31:46
Speaker 5: change things up tactically. But in the third period, if
31:49
Speaker 5: you're trailing by a goal or two, you've got to
31:50
Speaker 5: shake things up. So I think that's where it starts
31:54
Speaker 5: to become kind of a whole different game. We've seen
31:56
Speaker 5: some of these late surgeres at the end. There's definitely
31:59
Speaker 5: some bad beats to be had on just betting the
32:01
Speaker 5: game total under in the postseason.
32:05
Speaker 2: Twenty eight and twenty first period under throughout the playoffs
32:08
Speaker 2: that is pretty strong.
32:10
Speaker 1: Is there a stat that.
32:12
Speaker 5: I'll jump in and say two, because I've been meaning
32:14
Speaker 5: on this a lot. The Eiler series, every game went
32:17
Speaker 5: over the first period total, and I think everyone most people,
32:22
Speaker 5: I mean, I was wrong about the series, but I
32:24
Speaker 5: never bet the first period under there. I feel like
32:26
Speaker 5: most people kind of could see that wasn't the one.
32:29
Speaker 5: So I feel like you can almost eliminate that from
32:31
Speaker 5: the data too, And then it becomes really really convincing.
32:34
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's definitely been a strong trend here.
32:38
Speaker 2: Is there a stat that would back that up? I'm
32:40
Speaker 2: almost thinking about this like from a baseball perspective, where
32:44
Speaker 2: if you were looking at Okay, when is my total
32:46
Speaker 2: going to get blown up? If I take the under,
32:49
Speaker 2: It's going to be bullpen, it's going to be fielding,
32:52
Speaker 2: It's going to be those things that erode your bet
32:57
Speaker 2: as the game progresses. Is there a similar in hockey
33:01
Speaker 2: that people can look at that will show teams that
33:03
Speaker 2: are most likely to implode late in a game.
33:08
Speaker 5: I think that would be hard to track down because
33:10
Speaker 5: even just kind of thinking about last round, like there's
33:13
Speaker 5: the obvious one that would be getting baked in at
33:14
Speaker 5: like the final ten minutes. Usually sometimes there's a lot
33:17
Speaker 5: of flurries, but I mean there's two games last round
33:21
Speaker 5: that wins zero zero through regulation, and it's kind of hard,
33:25
Speaker 5: I think, to predict when it'll open up. I mean
33:27
Speaker 5: a lot of times it just comes down to one
33:29
Speaker 5: team might get one, maybe they get another floky bounce
33:31
Speaker 5: and then it's two zero and then the game script's
33:33
Speaker 5: completely different. But I don't know if there'd be a
33:36
Speaker 5: sustainable trend in terms of kind of predicting when that
33:39
Speaker 5: might happen.
33:41
Speaker 2: What about these teams that are already down, so there
33:43
Speaker 2: could be some value out there to be had among
33:46
Speaker 2: the teams that have already taken an L in round two.
33:49
Speaker 2: So you've got the wild at plus three hundred to
33:51
Speaker 2: win their series, the Ducks at plus two to seventy five.
33:54
Speaker 2: These are all prices over on draft kings. The Crown
33:57
Speaker 2: is yours, the Flyers at plus nine hundred. Are any
34:00
Speaker 2: of them worth a by low in terms of the
34:02
Speaker 2: series price?
34:04
Speaker 5: I don't know about any of those three. The only
34:07
Speaker 5: one I could maybe see getting to this point is
34:10
Speaker 5: if Minnesota lost tonight and then there's confirmation that Brodein
34:13
Speaker 5: and Joe LEXX and K were back, I think you
34:16
Speaker 5: could maybe consider I kind of historically have more so
34:20
Speaker 5: played those teams in terms of to win the Stanley Cup.
34:23
Speaker 5: I think is kind of in the spot, and I
34:25
Speaker 5: mean in Minnesota's instance, I think would be a good example,
34:27
Speaker 5: because if they were to come back in that series,
34:29
Speaker 5: I think you'd have to like their chances of winning
34:31
Speaker 5: it all. But I kind of think on those one
34:34
Speaker 5: specific I'm not quite there yet, But I like the
34:37
Speaker 5: point because This is one thing I think I've had
34:40
Speaker 5: success with where sometimes teams get an these series get
34:43
Speaker 5: down two zero, and especially in an instance like Minnesota
34:46
Speaker 5: and Colorado where it's two Stanley Cup contenders, the price
34:50
Speaker 5: for Minnesota might get to a point where then you
34:52
Speaker 5: can take your shot on them pulling off the comeback
34:55
Speaker 5: and then hopefully cruising in the next round and in
34:57
Speaker 5: the Stanley Cup Final.
35:00
Speaker 2: Do we like it tonight? By the way, they're plus
35:02
Speaker 2: one sixty seven. I've seen a plus one seventy out
35:06
Speaker 2: there as well. I mean, it looks like that's going
35:09
Speaker 2: to be a tightly contested series. They got a lot
35:12
Speaker 2: of star power. Just based on the minimal research I
35:15
Speaker 2: did today, I kind of fell in love with this
35:17
Speaker 2: wild team and to see them in game two. Is
35:20
Speaker 2: you talk about the trend of backing teams on the road,
35:24
Speaker 2: It feels like that would be a bet worth making tonight,
35:27
Speaker 2: But I will not do it without your approval.
35:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I kind of think it's I mean,
35:32
Speaker 5: it's tempting. But the players that Minnesota has out are
35:36
Speaker 5: kind of sneakily really important. They're pretty top heavy offensively
35:40
Speaker 5: and ericson eck they is their top center he's capable
35:45
Speaker 5: of kind of being an a racer, and this is
35:47
Speaker 5: Minnesota's weakness. They don't have center depth, and this is
35:49
Speaker 5: kind of one reason feels like it's almost been like
35:51
Speaker 5: a public believe in them, and then other people like
35:55
Speaker 5: me that have seen this are having a hard time
35:57
Speaker 5: believing in it because no team has won with center
36:00
Speaker 5: dep remotely as poor as theirs, and Eck is kind
36:03
Speaker 5: of their number one center, so that's a big loss.
36:06
Speaker 5: Brodein's really good as well. But the other thing is
36:09
Speaker 5: like the number is definitely pricing in those absences. If
36:13
Speaker 5: those guys are back for Game three, as it shifts
36:16
Speaker 5: to Minnesota, you're not gonna see anything close to plus
36:18
Speaker 5: one sixty seven. So I don't hate the argument. I'm
36:21
Speaker 5: kind of leaning towards betting the under.
36:23
Speaker 1: Again.
36:23
Speaker 5: It's one of these ones I almost don't want to
36:26
Speaker 5: post publicly because I'm like, I'll put my own money
36:29
Speaker 5: down and if I lose, I don't care. But there's
36:32
Speaker 5: there's kinds of bets where you put it out there
36:33
Speaker 5: and you know you're just taking so much heat for
36:35
Speaker 5: being an idiot, and this.
36:37
Speaker 2: Kind of you just basically summarize my entire career Nick
36:41
Speaker 2: our whole podcast.
36:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, just don't take a Falcon's future and it'll be fine.
36:45
Speaker 5: Oh my god, I mean right now to a t
36:49
Speaker 5: I think was like this this year because I was
36:51
Speaker 5: pretty high on them. Again, I've been high on them.
36:54
Speaker 5: I've lost on them a couple of times in my
36:56
Speaker 5: time doing this, and they're like that one that every
36:59
Speaker 5: kind of casual thing and it's like, you're an idiot.
37:01
Speaker 5: You believed in this team, like blah blah blah, they
37:03
Speaker 5: always choke. But then if you just look at the data,
37:06
Speaker 5: they have everything that every Stanley Cup champion always has.
37:10
Speaker 5: And people kind of rag on the analytics, like I
37:12
Speaker 5: watch a ton of games. I kind of split my
37:14
Speaker 5: opinion based off the analytics and just what I see,
37:18
Speaker 5: But expected goals data has been one of the best
37:21
Speaker 5: indicators of Stanley Cup success. The last seven Cup champs
37:24
Speaker 5: are averaging about fifth place, so there really isn't a
37:27
Speaker 5: better indicator than that. Carolina and Colorado were the top
37:31
Speaker 5: two teams and expected goals data this year, so it
37:35
Speaker 5: feels like, as much as people love to rag on it,
37:37
Speaker 5: for as volative tile as the NHL is, it's a
37:40
Speaker 5: pretty effective indicator. But yeah, Carolina definitely has made me
37:46
Speaker 5: look like an idiot enough in my life.
37:48
Speaker 6: But I do feel.
37:49
Speaker 3: Like this might be the year I want to talk
37:52
Speaker 3: about the consmice because odds are not going to get
37:55
Speaker 3: any better the deeper we get into the postseason. Do
37:58
Speaker 3: you have any leans? Do you have any favorites? I
37:59
Speaker 3: kind of like cal mccarr nine to one it where
38:01
Speaker 3: he's at. I feel like that's a little bit of
38:02
Speaker 3: something that if people want to take a sprinkle shot at,
38:05
Speaker 3: they could any favorites because, like I said, this is
38:07
Speaker 3: as good as it's gonna.
38:08
Speaker 1: Get odds wise.
38:10
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting because it's really open this year. Like
38:13
Speaker 5: for this point in the year, there's obviously McKinnon is
38:16
Speaker 5: the best player, best team, so he's gonna be the favorite.
38:18
Speaker 5: But like you said, mccarr he won it the last
38:20
Speaker 5: time they won the Stanley Cup, and he'll be in
38:22
Speaker 5: the mix. So I think if you really believed in
38:25
Speaker 5: the AVS, I don't know if it would be insane
38:27
Speaker 5: to just go McKinnon and mccarr. I like Sebastian Ajo
38:31
Speaker 5: entering the year and it's another of course.
38:33
Speaker 3: You do you Carolina Ryder?
38:35
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, and that's the thing. It sucks.
38:37
Speaker 5: I don't have the right guy because I thought it
38:40
Speaker 5: was pretty likely that he would be kind.
38:42
Speaker 3: Of you're not gonna ride Taylor Hall, come on.
38:45
Speaker 5: Oh, I think it's Stankovin. But to me at this point,
38:49
Speaker 5: as good as stank oven isn't as well as he's
38:51
Speaker 5: played in the lead, he's kind of built the top
38:53
Speaker 5: two or the second.
38:54
Speaker 6: Two rounds, you should do it in the odds.
38:56
Speaker 5: Yeah, and the second two rounds do kind of usually
38:59
Speaker 5: hold the little more weight. And at some point, I've
39:02
Speaker 5: always loved Stankovin. I feel he's a complete dog. He's
39:04
Speaker 5: fun to watch, he's on a great line. But I
39:08
Speaker 5: am still expecting their top forwards, like even if it's
39:12
Speaker 5: Seth Jarvis, to kind of pick their game up the
39:15
Speaker 5: rest of the way here. So I definitely wouldn't lay
39:17
Speaker 5: that with Stankovin because generally the top the first two
39:21
Speaker 5: rounds don't get as heavily weighted. It seems like when
39:23
Speaker 5: you get into the vote, and I still feel like
39:26
Speaker 5: we'll probably see like Seth Jarvis forty to one is
39:30
Speaker 5: pretty crazy. I didn't think he'd be that far behind
39:33
Speaker 5: Ajo and then Anderson up there as well, But I
39:37
Speaker 5: mean it's pretty wide open. I think it's at this
39:40
Speaker 5: point pretty pretty tough to hammer down some guys. I
39:45
Speaker 5: liked Waalstadt as an option for Minnesota entering that series.
39:48
Speaker 5: I think Dobis if you're a Montreal fan, could be
39:51
Speaker 5: an option. I feel like they're going to continue to
39:53
Speaker 5: need good goaltending to.
39:54
Speaker 6: Get it done.
39:56
Speaker 5: And then Jack Eichel was one of my pre playoff ones.
40:00
Speaker 5: I'm always high on his two way game is so strong.
40:02
Speaker 5: Vegas looks pretty dominant. I don't know if I can
40:06
Speaker 5: quite do Mitch Martner, but I'm kind of enjoying seeing
40:09
Speaker 5: him have a good playoffs. I'm really happy for him
40:14
Speaker 5: and he's I thought he had such a good gold
40:16
Speaker 5: medal game in the Four Nations for Canada. Wasn't bad
40:20
Speaker 5: this time around at the Olympics. I think he's kind
40:23
Speaker 5: of shown it doesn't entirely surprise me. And I think
40:25
Speaker 5: it goes back to some of the points we talked
40:27
Speaker 5: about earlier. But those teams had just played in such
40:31
Speaker 5: low scoring playoff games, so many of the series were
40:34
Speaker 5: just two to one versus the Bruins every game, two
40:37
Speaker 5: one versus the Lightning, and now he's getting to kind
40:40
Speaker 5: of get into these soft Pacific matchups that we've seen
40:43
Speaker 5: McDavid and dryside'll just roast in for years, so it
40:46
Speaker 5: doesn't surprise me to see him get going. But I
40:49
Speaker 5: still kind of think at the end of the day,
40:50
Speaker 5: Icle's probably the slightly more likely candidate on Vegas.
40:55
Speaker 3: I know that I joked about Taylor Hall but kind
40:57
Speaker 3: of out of nowhere. I know that he's battled some
40:58
Speaker 3: injuries and other stuff through his career, but kind of
41:01
Speaker 3: truly out of nowhere. He's come alive in this series,
41:05
Speaker 3: or at least the last couple of weeks. Do you
41:06
Speaker 3: think he's worth writing just because it doesn't feel like
41:09
Speaker 3: the books have kind of given him credit for how.
41:11
Speaker 1: Consistent he's been.
41:13
Speaker 6: Do you think that he's.
41:13
Speaker 3: Worth kind of a long shot or a sprinkle to
41:15
Speaker 3: score at any point throughout this series?
41:17
Speaker 6: Again, I mean, I.
41:20
Speaker 5: Don't hate it, It's just been kind of weird though.
41:22
Speaker 5: Carolina's a tough team to handicap from player perspective because
41:26
Speaker 5: Brenda Meir's he'll roll the line so evenly, and it's
41:31
Speaker 5: so kind of game by game on his adjustments, which
41:35
Speaker 5: units he'll trust in certain spots, So that line has
41:38
Speaker 5: been unreal the Stankovin, Jackson, Blake and Taylor Hall lines
41:42
Speaker 5: probably been the best line this postseason, but it's also
41:45
Speaker 5: starting to get to that point where that's really getting
41:48
Speaker 5: baked into the prices, and Carolina is kind of all
41:52
Speaker 5: over the place with their usage typically. And the other
41:56
Speaker 5: thing is, I think that series, we'll see how it goes,
41:58
Speaker 5: but I do you expect that'll be one of the
42:00
Speaker 5: ones that gets really really tight and low scoring. I mean,
42:03
Speaker 5: and most people were expecting it, but I wouldn't be
42:06
Speaker 5: surprised if we've already seen the most high end games
42:08
Speaker 5: of that series.
42:09
Speaker 2: All Right, guys, it's time to lay the wood. Time
42:13
Speaker 2: for our DraftKings segment of the week, as we plant
42:15
Speaker 2: our flag on some hockey wagers. Could be anything, could
42:20
Speaker 2: be tonight, could be a futures play as we continue
42:24
Speaker 2: on in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Nick, you are our guests.
42:27
Speaker 2: You're the one that we should be listening to anyway,
42:30
Speaker 2: So we'll start with you.
42:32
Speaker 5: Okay, I am gonna go ahead. I'll plant my flag on.
42:37
Speaker 5: Let's go with the Ducks to win Game two? Is
42:40
Speaker 5: that enough of a take? I think that's a good bet.
42:42
Speaker 5: I thought the Ducks played a surprisingly great game in
42:45
Speaker 5: Game one kind of hindered on. It was really closely contested,
42:49
Speaker 5: and usually every playoff game there's one or two things
42:51
Speaker 5: in point two that decided it, but Jackson McComb passing
42:54
Speaker 5: up a completely wide open net and a controversial icing call.
42:59
Speaker 5: I was surprised at how much time the Ducks were
43:01
Speaker 5: able to spend in Vegas's zone. I thought Vegas looked
43:04
Speaker 5: pretty passive, like they're kind of scared of all the
43:06
Speaker 5: speed and scale over on the other side.
43:09
Speaker 6: So I like the Ducks.
43:10
Speaker 5: I'm still a little unsold on Carter Hart here, and
43:14
Speaker 5: you know, maybe I did maybe in Round one they
43:16
Speaker 5: did actually deserve quite a bit of credit for what
43:18
Speaker 5: they did to the Oilers, So I think we might
43:19
Speaker 5: see kind of a similar narrative in that series. I
43:21
Speaker 5: don't know if they'll be able to pull off the win,
43:24
Speaker 5: but Utah showed some really good signs in Round one
43:27
Speaker 5: versus Vegas in Game one, then they were able to
43:29
Speaker 5: get Game two on the road. I kind of think
43:31
Speaker 5: plus one thirty five is a good number to buy
43:34
Speaker 5: into a similar narrative after what we saw from the
43:36
Speaker 5: Ducks in game one.
43:37
Speaker 6: So yeah, let's go with that.
43:40
Speaker 2: All right, we're on the board with the Ducks in
43:41
Speaker 2: game two plus one thirty six against the Vegas Golden Knights. Evan,
43:45
Speaker 2: let's kick it over to you plant the flag.
43:48
Speaker 4: Two options I was looking through were the Ducks to
43:50
Speaker 4: win it all. I see it thirty five to one,
43:52
Speaker 4: so I was going to take a larger position than Nick.
43:56
Speaker 4: I like the Ducks as well, So game two is fine.
43:58
Speaker 4: But if you want to go crazy thirty five to
44:00
Speaker 4: one at the Cup, and then do you have the
44:02
Speaker 4: thing I was looking at, I'll probably stick with the Ducks.
44:04
Speaker 4: But Carolina not to win the East is plus one
44:07
Speaker 4: forty I see in some places, just like an option
44:11
Speaker 4: on who they're going to play next. Since I don't
44:13
Speaker 4: want to choose between Montreal and Buffalo, I just kind
44:15
Speaker 4: of want to ride whoever it comes out of that series.
44:18
Speaker 4: But those are the two things I was looking at.
44:20
Speaker 2: All, Right, so we're gonna go, officially, for the content
44:24
Speaker 2: purposes of it, Ducks thirty five to one to win
44:27
Speaker 2: it all.
44:28
Speaker 1: Good with that?
44:29
Speaker 4: Good with that?
44:30
Speaker 2: Kendra shakes her head in disapproval. Where it's where is
44:34
Speaker 2: your flag being planted?
44:37
Speaker 1: I've been chasing?
44:38
Speaker 3: I very much agree with Nick that the unpredictability of
44:41
Speaker 3: Carolina scoring is there, and I've been chasing an Andre
44:44
Speaker 3: Spechnikov goal, so I'm going to continue to chase it.
44:46
Speaker 1: Plus two twenty five for Thursday.
44:49
Speaker 2: All right, So we got a couple that you can
44:51
Speaker 2: bank on more immediately from our hockey gurus. You've got
44:58
Speaker 2: a long shot with Evan, I'm gonna give you another one.
45:01
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Wild. I'm taking my shot.
45:04
Speaker 2: I'm planting the flag now. They need to get past
45:07
Speaker 2: the avalanche first, which is the toughest test. But if
45:10
Speaker 2: they can climb that proverbial mountain, I think the path
45:14
Speaker 2: is clear. Sixteen to one is dreamy. We'll get them
45:18
Speaker 2: to win tonight. Cross my fingers on that light sprinkle
45:21
Speaker 2: since I didn't get the full approval from Nick. But
45:24
Speaker 2: if they win tonight, they steal home ice. Feel good
45:27
Speaker 2: about it. I'll put my faith in Quinn, Hughes and company.
45:31
Speaker 2: Give me the Minnesota Wild at sixteen to one, and
45:35
Speaker 2: you don't look at it, and you don't look disgusted, guys,
45:37
Speaker 2: so I feel like maybe I'm on the right path.
45:39
Speaker 5: Well, one thing I will say to kind of back
45:43
Speaker 5: you up here a little bit and it's kind of natural.
45:46
Speaker 5: But if you look back since the division realignment, and
45:49
Speaker 5: I've kind of been surprised how little this has been
45:51
Speaker 5: talked about the amount of Cup winners that have won
45:55
Speaker 5: one of these first round matchups or second round matchups
45:58
Speaker 5: versus another full fledged betting favorite, and then gone on
46:02
Speaker 5: to cruise to the Cup. It's been so consistent. There's
46:05
Speaker 5: been a lot of teams where they've gotten through one
46:07
Speaker 5: of these kind of borderline Cup finals in the second round,
46:11
Speaker 5: and then they just cruise the rest of the way.
46:13
Speaker 5: So I don't know if Minnesota would go that far,
46:15
Speaker 5: but I kind of like the way you're thinking obviously,
46:18
Speaker 5: where you know that if they are able to get
46:21
Speaker 5: this one done, i'd love their chances in the West Final.
46:24
Speaker 5: I feel like whoever wins this series is gonna have
46:25
Speaker 5: such a good chance in the West Final, and then
46:27
Speaker 5: who knows how it goes out East. And to talk
46:31
Speaker 5: about the Twin Conference pick Evan, Like, as high as
46:33
Speaker 5: I am on Carolina, it is insane to look that
46:36
Speaker 5: they're minus two hundred to win the Eastern Conference as
46:40
Speaker 5: of now. Like I guess it makes sense when you
46:43
Speaker 5: think about like their up to zero on Philly should
46:46
Speaker 5: get through this one pretty safely, but it still just
46:49
Speaker 5: feels so crazy to be at a point where we're
46:51
Speaker 5: two games into Round two and a team is minus
46:54
Speaker 5: two hundred to win the Eastern Conference already.
46:58
Speaker 4: It's why I didn't want to, like have to chew
47:00
Speaker 4: between the other two because I kind of feel like
47:02
Speaker 4: whoever comes through that is going to be a very
47:04
Speaker 4: hot team that everyone's gonna want to talk about. So
47:07
Speaker 4: I would just like to take the other side. Maybe
47:09
Speaker 4: even Carolina doesn't get through this, which we assume they will.
47:11
Speaker 2: But having Nick say that he likes where my thinking is,
47:18
Speaker 2: it was not what I had.
47:19
Speaker 1: I did not have that on my bingo card.
47:21
Speaker 2: And doing a hockey podcast today, Nick Martin, Ladies and
47:24
Speaker 2: gentlemen appreciate the visit.
47:26
Speaker 1: You were fantastic.
47:27
Speaker 2: I feel well versed in all things Stanley Cup playoffs.
47:31
Speaker 1: Where can people find your work?
47:33
Speaker 5: Yeah, most of my work is still with Action. I
47:35
Speaker 5: have a lot of stuff with Canada Sports Betting, Daily
47:38
Speaker 5: Face Off, kind of just all over all the better
47:41
Speaker 5: collective entities. So yeah, and then this year didn't we
47:44
Speaker 5: didn't do the podcast, so we had a lot of
47:47
Speaker 5: people kind of reach out hopefully next year we'll get
47:49
Speaker 5: something together on that front. But it was good to
47:53
Speaker 5: jump back in and get on a pod because I've
47:55
Speaker 5: mainly just been writing a ton this season, so it's
47:59
Speaker 5: a fun change to get back into it.
48:02
Speaker 1: Well, you're a natural.
48:03
Speaker 2: So if you need anybody out there to champion your
48:06
Speaker 2: return to podcasting, just holler at me.
48:09
Speaker 5: We got you back, get your voice back in top form,
48:12
Speaker 5: and then we'll have you out.
48:14
Speaker 1: Okay, great, I would be happy.
48:16
Speaker 2: I would be happy to help you host the podcast
48:18
Speaker 2: and just tee you up for an hour. That'll do
48:21
Speaker 2: it for today's episode. Thanks for hanging with me. I
48:24
Speaker 2: know that this wasn't pleasant. Shout out to our producers
48:26
Speaker 2: David Paine and Gifford gold Stat sound slid in as
48:29
Speaker 2: a co host today. Evan abrams the Favorites. We'll be
48:32
Speaker 2: back on Thursday right here on the Action Network YouTube page,
48:35
Speaker 2: and I think my voice might be back by then
48:37
Speaker 2: as well. Our show today has been presented by DraftKings.
48:40
Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.
48:56
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
49:00
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
49:03
Speaker 1: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler