Latest / Crosstabs / EXCLUSIVE: Crosstabs Releases Governor Poll

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EXCLUSIVE: Crosstabs Releases Governor Poll · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_01: Reagan I am a beer deep but I'm in Nashville so it's okay
0:22
SPEAKER_01: It is the only one.
0:23
SPEAKER_01: We were at Old Reds for lunch in Nashville.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: And so we had this big old platter of like,
0:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
0:30
SPEAKER_01: nothing but just,
0:31
SPEAKER_01: you know,
0:31
SPEAKER_01: so I might have the meat sweats a little bit with a beer.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: But it was good, I gotta say.
0:37
SPEAKER_01: There was like live music going on and it's...
0:41
Was just like how how better is it to have a storytellers guy
0:45
with three guitar
0:46
players going through just like awesome music roles while
0:50
you're sitting there
0:50
having lunch at Old Red so yeah I can't really beat it
0:55
Nashville is kind of a cool
0:56
SPEAKER_00: spot Do you go to Nashville a lot?
0:59
SPEAKER_01: No, this is my, I've been to the airport like three times.
1:02
This is the first time that we've actually been able to go,
1:05
like,
1:06
come down to Nashville.
1:07
SPEAKER_01: It was a blast.
1:08
SPEAKER_01: We got here yesterday, flew in Sunday after Dorchester on Saturday.
1:12
and uh we were at Posty's last night Post Malone's bar which
1:16
was kind of fun and uh
1:18
I had a great there was a great band that was playing there so
1:20
we were there for a
1:22
little bit we came back it was like 10 30 which was like 7 30
1:26
or 8 30 our time at
1:27
SPEAKER_01: home and I went right to bed so that
1:30
SPEAKER_01: That was good.
1:31
SPEAKER_01: So I woke up this morning and I'm hitting Vicki like, let's go.
1:34
SPEAKER_01: Let's go walk around.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: Let's go do stuff.
1:36
SPEAKER_01: After I've been emailing a bunch of people and I realized,
1:39
SPEAKER_01: oh,
1:39
SPEAKER_01: it's only four in the morning over there.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: Email, I feel like not as bad.
1:44
SPEAKER_00: You can kind of send emails anytime and people will look in there.
1:48
It's texts where sometimes I forget if I'm off and I'm like,
1:51
oh,
1:51
wait a minute.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: What time is it where I just sent that?
1:53
SPEAKER_00: Well,
1:53
SPEAKER_01: then my phone rings and Jason Williams is blowing me up and it's 6 a.m.
1:57
SPEAKER_01: at his time and I'm like,
1:58
SPEAKER_01: what are you doing calling me at 6 a.m.?
2:01
SPEAKER_00: He's an early bird.
2:03
SPEAKER_01: I believe so.
2:04
SPEAKER_01: He appears to be.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: But we're over here.
2:06
SPEAKER_01: It's kind of fun.
2:08
SPEAKER_01: I am here for a conference.
2:10
SPEAKER_01: It's a mini conference, but it's a bunch of
2:14
Footloose and fancy free guys like me around the country and
2:18
our texting platform
2:20
company that I use for a bunch of my my candidates I don't know
2:25
how many of the
2:26
other consultants in Oregon use them but they and a couple
2:30
other vendors basically
2:31
SPEAKER_01: right that love to wrangle money out of us they they
2:35
SPEAKER_01: They said,
2:35
SPEAKER_01: hey,
2:35
wouldn't it be great if we had guys like you come together in
2:38
Nashville and just
2:41
SPEAKER_01: talk about what's your best practices going into the fall?
2:45
SPEAKER_01: Like, what are you thinking?
2:45
SPEAKER_01: What are you seeing?
2:46
And then tomorrow they have some of the team that was working
2:50
on a lot of the
2:51
SPEAKER_01: Virginia races is going to come and
2:53
give us the keynote on basically how badly they screwed up in
2:57
Virginia so we can
2:58
try not to do that in every state across the country so I'm
3:02
looking forward to it
3:03
I'll be back Wednesday so it's kind of a quick trip but people
3:06
have primaries all
3:08
over the place right for like six months there's primary season
3:11
that happens
3:12
throughout the country really so just depends on where you are
3:16
so it was just kind
3:17
of the time frame that landed so I just had to zip out of there
3:21
and come here and
3:23
It was kind of fun Drag Vicky along She thought it would be
3:25
kind of fun And so But
3:27
we had a good time Walked around most of the day today And
3:29
we'll start our
3:30
conference tonight All day tomorrow Vicky's gonna continue to
3:33
shop tomorrow I think
3:34
Hopefully doesn't kill me And then While I do my conference And
3:38
then we're out of
3:39
SPEAKER_01: here Wednesday Flying back And then it's full on to the finish,
3:44
SPEAKER_01: right?
3:44
Quick trip Good little quick trip Even though if you're working
3:49
still It doesn't
3:51
SPEAKER_00: feel as much like working
3:53
SPEAKER_01: No,
3:53
we were sitting there at lunch and of course I'm on my phone
3:56
answering a bunch of
3:57
SPEAKER_01: emails and text messages and stuff,
3:59
SPEAKER_00: but that's okay.
4:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's part of it.
4:01
I wanted to do it because what's truly important isn't the
4:04
primary,
4:05
it's the general.
4:06
SPEAKER_01: So at the end of the day,
4:08
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
4:09
SPEAKER_01: we get caught up in the primary stuff and I think a little bit of that.
4:13
SPEAKER_01: I witnessed some of that kind of at Dorchester this weekend.
4:16
SPEAKER_01: I was only there Saturday.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: I had too much work to do Friday to go and
4:20
SPEAKER_01: Crosstabs
4:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think Dorchester is interesting.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: There's parts of it that can be good,
4:41
SPEAKER_00: and I think it's a lot more for – it's not a working conference,
4:46
SPEAKER_00: as you've noted.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: It's unfortunately a place of many missteps,
4:51
personal stories that I've heard of individuals who've made
4:55
some mistakes there.
4:57
SPEAKER_00: Let's just put it that way.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: We call those poor choices.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: Poor choices,
5:01
yes But there are parts of it that can be good And then
5:04
sometimes it's boring And I
5:08
SPEAKER_00: didn't I mean,
5:08
I haven't heard from a ton of people I did not go to Dorchester
5:11
But I've heard that
5:12
that was how the debate was Was boring Very similar to this
5:17
live streamed ORP
5:18
debate No fighting I didn't even stay and watch it Because we
5:22
had a fly out Sunday
5:23
SPEAKER_01: morning So Vicky and I
5:26
I actually did a training where,
5:27
you know,
5:28
working with the Oregon Coalition.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: So I did a training on messaging and we had a great group of candidates.
5:34
SPEAKER_01: Mostly the candidates are there,
5:36
the ones that don't have primary opponents or they're going to
5:39
have a very tough
5:40
SPEAKER_01: general election.
5:41
SPEAKER_01: So it was really kind of focused on, you know, what is the messaging?
5:45
We brought in our friends from Americans for Prosperity and we
5:48
had some other folks
5:49
SPEAKER_01: that really kind of came in and
5:50
I had a great panel of people talking about messaging so that
5:53
part was great and
5:54
that was the learning portion I think maybe the entire learning
5:57
portion of the
5:57
session that was going on but you know it's a place where I
6:02
mean Republicans don't
6:03
don't really have a spot where we get together right I mean you
6:06
were there with me
6:07
four years ago and that was the last time I was there so and I
6:11
during the governor
6:12
SPEAKER_01: years it seems like there's a little bit more buzz right with uh
6:17
just obviously it's a governor's race so there always seems to
6:19
be a little bit more
6:20
buzz during that time frame and there was there definitely was
6:23
some buzz happening
6:25
I think the debates sadly like that one you would think they
6:29
would have been able
6:30
to get into a little bit more detail on stuff because I really
6:35
feel and we're going
6:36
SPEAKER_01: to talk about the poll that we conducted from Crosstabs but
6:41
I think it really does actually undermine the issue I believe
6:46
that the Republican
6:47
governor candidates have as a whole is they haven't laid out or
6:51
they're not talking
6:52
about what is their plan for Oregon and I've seen that with
6:57
some of the editorials
6:58
coming out from like the Oregonian and some other people that
7:00
there just isn't you
7:03
SPEAKER_01: know somebody that's taking that crown and so clearly
7:08
You know that's going to have to but maybe that's done on
7:10
purpose I think in some
7:12
cases like why would you throw your best stuff out there if
7:14
you're Christine Drazen
7:16
and you're you know you don't want to give the ideas away to
7:19
your opponents and
7:19
then it kind of gives you know Kotech a lot of time to look
7:23
into what you're doing
7:24
and your policies that you want to put forth so there is a lot
7:27
of strategy involved
7:28
in that I get it so but it does make those debates woefully
7:33
boring and they even
7:33
tried to bring in Walden to moderate the bait and it was still
7:36
woefully boring
7:39
I think that one of the things about that I've never understood
7:43
the top secret
7:43
plans strategy here because if you have good ideas they're just
7:49
good ideas and you
7:50
should want people to hear them you should not want people to
7:52
hear that you have
7:55
SPEAKER_00: You should want them to hear your good ideas.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: That's what I've always thought.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: And so I've always think,
7:58
SPEAKER_00: well,
7:59
SPEAKER_00: I have a plan,
7:59
SPEAKER_00: is not good enough to earn somebody's vote,
8:03
SPEAKER_00: usually.
8:04
SPEAKER_00: So I think that people need to stop being so concerned about,
8:09
SPEAKER_00: well,
8:10
SPEAKER_00: are my C&Es and my fundraising all top secret?
8:12
SPEAKER_00: Are my all whatever?
8:14
SPEAKER_00: No,
8:14
SPEAKER_00: if you're the best candidate,
8:15
SPEAKER_00: if you've got the best ideas,
8:16
SPEAKER_00: if you've got the best campaign,
8:18
SPEAKER_00: tell people.
8:19
That's what's going to get them interested in you is you making
8:23
a claim and then
8:25
SPEAKER_00: proving the claim.
8:27
Not making a claim and then,
8:29
well,
8:29
you've got to come along and see if it's true.
8:31
That's what people think politicians do to them all the time is
8:34
lie to them and
8:35
SPEAKER_00: trick them and obfuscate and all these things.
8:37
SPEAKER_00: So you've got to be direct.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: You've got to be out there.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: If you have great ideas,
8:41
SPEAKER_00: great governing ideas,
8:42
SPEAKER_00: and you think you're the only one that can do them,
8:46
SPEAKER_00: well then guess what?
8:47
SPEAKER_00: No one else is going to be able to steal.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: Reagan, I 100% agree with you.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: I think that if you got good ideas and you're running for governor,
8:59
SPEAKER_01: those good ideas should platform you out of the primary into the general,
9:03
because our good ideas on the Republican Party should be ones
9:07
that ultimately you
9:08
have to run on those ideas versus getting somebody to vote for
9:11
a Republican or vote
9:12
SPEAKER_01: for a Democrat in the general election against Tina Kotek,
9:15
SPEAKER_01: who
9:16
SPEAKER_01: Only idea I believe so far has been more money, more money, more money.
9:20
So because everything for Democrats always comes back to more
9:25
money and more programs.
9:27
And I think that you could lay out an agenda that I believe
9:32
against an agenda of
9:35
more money and more programs and more money going to nonprofits
9:39
who people just
9:39
SPEAKER_01: distrust now more than ever.
9:42
SPEAKER_01: You can lay out an agenda, I think, that says, no, this is my plan.
9:45
SPEAKER_01: But it's got to be concrete and it's got to have real stuff.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: So with that, let's dive into the poll.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: Yes, this is very exciting stuff.
9:54
SPEAKER_00: The first ever Crosstabs commissioned poll.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: You know, it'd be fun if we get to do these every once in a while.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think the key to this one is we commissioned it.
10:10
SPEAKER_01: It was done so completely nonpartisan.
10:15
SPEAKER_01: Not even, you know, I really just, but I wanted more.
10:17
SPEAKER_01: So we actually dug deep.
10:19
SPEAKER_00: All right, wait a minute, Brian.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: What do you mean by nonpartisan?
10:22
SPEAKER_00: Because we're both Republicans.
10:25
SPEAKER_01: I mean, there wasn't a lot of partisan bent to it.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: We don't have skin in the game in terms of the candidates.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
10:33
SPEAKER_01: Alright,
10:34
SPEAKER_01: I'll go with you on that Okay,
10:36
SPEAKER_00: alright I just want to make sure people Wait,
10:39
SPEAKER_01: we only And yes,
10:41
we did only actually interview Republicans Dudley might have
10:44
done better if we
10:45
SPEAKER_01: didn't So
10:49
Polling we conducted a poll April 23rd 24th so very recent like
10:54
the end of last
10:55
week so yes after after the first debate before the Dorchester
11:01
debate however it
11:01
was not live streamed so voters couldn't tune in unless they
11:05
went to Dorchester and
11:06
SPEAKER_00: Dorchester attendance was probably what a couple hundred people
11:09
Yeah at best and then I so we had and then they did have a
11:14
closed circuit and they
11:15
streamed it but that didn't matter because we already finished
11:18
the poll by then but
11:19
SPEAKER_01: we got to 620 Republicans and and it took a little longer to get because
11:25
SPEAKER_01: Republicans it turns out I actually did some other polling in some of my
11:29
legislative races while I was doing some of this turns out some
11:33
Republicans Reagan
11:33
SPEAKER_01: don't like to answer the phone everybody in general I don't know
11:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that's just a problem with everybody.
11:41
It might be Republican-specific,
11:44
but definitely it's been a challenge with polling.
11:47
And so we focused only on the three candidates because if
11:50
you're not in the top
11:51
SPEAKER_01: three,
11:51
SPEAKER_01: you don't matter.
11:53
So sorry,
11:54
just the way the cookie crumbles in a governor's race,
11:56
there's 14 or 15 running.
11:59
SPEAKER_01: And even based on the poll that we had JL on and talked about,
12:03
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
12:04
you could almost make a case for David Medina because he got 7%
12:08
in JL's poll,
12:09
but you can't make a case like why Daniel Bethel should be
12:12
included because she's
12:13
SPEAKER_01: just not,
12:14
SPEAKER_01: right?
12:14
SPEAKER_01: But it's clearly coming down to the three because Medina has no money.
12:18
I mean,
12:18
if Medina even had a couple hundred grand,
12:20
I probably would have included him because...
12:23
SPEAKER_01: My analysis,
12:24
SPEAKER_01: which I'll include in this podcast,
12:26
as well as literally we're going to release the entire
12:30
Crosstabs and the entire
12:31
SPEAKER_01: poll.
12:32
So that's a full PDF and everybody can download it and do what
12:36
you want with it.
12:37
Truly incredible stuff I love when you can actually find the
12:42
poll and the crosstabs
12:43
in stories about the polling because I like to look at it
12:47
myself and a lot of these
12:48
news outlets they get the poll they'll get the crosstabs and
12:51
then they don't
12:51
publish either of them and I don't know if that's because of
12:54
the agreement from
12:54
where they got the poll or whatever right but love to be able
12:58
to publish that stuff
13:00
SPEAKER_00: and yeah
13:02
SPEAKER_01: All right, so let's run through it.
13:04
SPEAKER_01: So we just asked first the impression, right?
13:08
SPEAKER_01: Christine Drazen, these are randomly rotated.
13:10
So every time they call,
13:13
they would change who goes first,
13:14
second and third.
13:16
SPEAKER_01: Christine Drazen has a 59% favorable and 10% unfavorable.
13:23
18% no impression usually I call those the liars the ones that
13:28
don't want to say
13:29
that they haven't heard of somebody because they feel like they
13:32
should say they've
13:32
heard of somebody so really 13% never heard of that's like you
13:38
could be living
13:39
under a rock if you're a likely voter but for Christine I mean
13:43
$20 million but 13%
13:44
let's just use that as a number that's really low for a
13:49
statewide primary candidate
13:51
A more typical statewide primary candidate is Ed Deal with the
13:55
29% favorable,
13:56
SPEAKER_01: 1% unfavorable,
13:58
SPEAKER_01: so everybody has a good impression of Ed,
14:01
SPEAKER_01: 21% have no impression,
14:02
SPEAKER_01: and 48% never heard of him.
14:07
SPEAKER_01: So he's trailing by 35% in that category.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: And remember, that's among Republicans.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: So the electorate that he needs to reach,
14:15
SPEAKER_00: he's got,
14:16
SPEAKER_00: what,
14:16
SPEAKER_00: a week to get to these people before they start getting ballots?
14:19
SPEAKER_00: Less than a week?
14:20
SPEAKER_00: And I think that that is his biggest challenge.
14:24
SPEAKER_00: And as we look further on here,
14:25
I think that's going to be important to note that 48% have
14:28
never heard of a deal.
14:31
Chris Dudley 33% favorable 8% unfavorable 31% no impression
14:37
which I think that's
14:39
split between never heard of and heard of like you know was he
14:42
the basketball
14:42
player or who I feel like I should have I just I feel like I
14:46
should have heard of
14:46
SPEAKER_01: him
14:47
and then 27% never heard of those are probably a lot of your
14:50
newer Republicans
14:51
right so you can see that in the Crosstabs too so there's your
14:57
faves unfaves you
15:00
know Christine lead by a wide margin with a 49% net 49%
15:04
favorability within the
15:06
party that's pretty strong with Dudley at the worst at 25% so
15:12
that's a pretty
15:13
SPEAKER_01: decent so then we said you know which one who'd you vote for
15:18
If the election was held today Christine Drazen 35% Ed Deal 18%
15:28
Chris Dudley 14%
15:30
And then some other candidate 8% Which is what we just said
15:34
That's probably your
15:36
SPEAKER_01: David Medina and Daniel Bethel crowd And 25% undecided
15:42
So we pushed pretty hard and we made sure with the pollster
15:45
that we were pushing
15:47
SPEAKER_01: hard with the follow-up is undecided.
15:51
So that 25% category,
15:55
we just said,
15:56
or no,
15:56
at first we asked,
15:57
would you change your mind?
15:59
SPEAKER_01: Like, could you change your mind?
16:01
SPEAKER_01: And in total, 58% said they could change their mind.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: So that's a pretty high number.
16:08
SPEAKER_01: That's not a really...
16:10
you know 42% are solid and those are about Christine and Ed's
16:15
support I would say
16:16
is about the same roughly 50-50 and then Dudley's was very 74%
16:21
said you could
16:22
change your mind so this is anybody who chose a candidate would
16:26
you change your
16:27
mind and even for those three obviously Dudley's is the worst
16:30
at 74% yes they could
16:31
change their mind which means Dudley's folks are the least
16:35
stuck on to him as a
16:37
SPEAKER_00: candidate which is a huge problem uh
16:39
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's indicative of an environment
16:54
SPEAKER_00: That's a
17:15
Yeah,
17:15
that's a I mean,
17:16
I think you're probably in the neighborhood,
17:18
as they say.
17:20
So we did get in and then then we follow up harder with those
17:25
undecideds and we
17:26
SPEAKER_01: say,
17:26
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:28
SPEAKER_01: OK,
17:28
SPEAKER_01: so gun to your head if you were forced.
17:30
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't think that was the actual question.
17:34
SPEAKER_01: No,
17:34
SPEAKER_01: absolutely had to choose today,
17:36
SPEAKER_01: meaning it was like the final day and you were going to vote.
17:38
SPEAKER_01: Right.
17:39
SPEAKER_01: It's kind of how you phrase it.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: Twenty one percent.
17:45
SPEAKER_01: So we got about half of the 25%,
17:48
SPEAKER_01: if you can do this,
17:49
SPEAKER_01: this might be my Bernie Sanders math,
17:51
SPEAKER_01: about half of the 25% committed their vote to somebody.
17:56
SPEAKER_01: 50% of those people still stayed undecided.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: And then of those half that then committed, 21% said Christine Drazen.
18:07
SPEAKER_01: 7% Ed Deal, 10% Chris Dudley, 8% stayed with some other candidate.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: So the 50%,
18:16
SPEAKER_01: so if you kind of do that,
18:18
SPEAKER_01: that tells me that,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: if I'm reading this poll and I'm in Christine Drazen's camp,
18:22
I'm feeling really good about that because not only am I
18:26
winning in the people that
18:27
SPEAKER_01: have been decided,
18:29
SPEAKER_01: it looks like my favorable and unfavorables are good.
18:31
SPEAKER_01: And
18:34
SPEAKER_01: of the people pushed to answer, I'm destroying the other guys.
18:38
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:39
SPEAKER_01: Doubling them up.
18:40
SPEAKER_01: Gaining ground, right?
18:41
SPEAKER_01: So,
18:43
SPEAKER_01: and then if you,
18:44
SPEAKER_01: so if you add all that up,
18:45
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
18:46
SPEAKER_01: Christine basically has a,
18:48
SPEAKER_01: is not even the front runner.
18:50
SPEAKER_01: She's the clear front runner.
18:52
Yeah,
18:53
and again I think she's run a very disciplined campaign,
18:57
a very focused campaign.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: She's run a campaign that knows they're talking to primary voters.
19:01
I mean that's been one of the biggest issues I think is that
19:05
sometimes these
19:05
SPEAKER_00: campaigns have not behaved.
19:08
Like They're Talking To Primary Voters And I Understand Why You
19:10
Do That Because You
19:11
Understand You Have A General Election But You Don't Have A
19:13
General Election If You
19:14
Don't Win The Primary First And So I Think She Understands That
19:18
And Has Understood
19:19
That Better Than Any Of The Other Candidates In This Race
19:22
Except Maybe Ed Deal
19:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm
19:43
Christine's the only one who's been in mailboxes and I think
19:46
that that is a that's
19:48
been great for her I would not have expected her to go totally
19:52
uncontested in
19:53
mailboxes like she has that's surprising to me Very surprising
19:58
on that front I
19:59
think the other thing that has given her well clearly being the
20:03
previous runner is
20:05
important and holding her favorability is pretty tough to do a
20:11
lot of times
20:12
you know Republican primary candidates have a hard time holding
20:16
favorabilities when
20:18
they lose because people just want to move on right they you
20:22
lost and they just
20:23
want to move on so she's held her favorability which is good
20:27
for her to do and I
20:27
think the biggest thing that helped her do that is she's had
20:30
the longest runway
20:32
yeah like she announced in November right first part of
20:36
November and she just said
20:37
SPEAKER_01: no I'm going and I'm
20:41
SPEAKER_01: And Chris Dudley sat on his hands Ed Deal was,
20:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:44
to his credit You could say he was working on the gas tax
20:47
referral And putting that
20:49
whole thing together But that was done in December His best
20:55
moment when he should
20:56
have announced for governor Should have been at the point when
20:59
he delivered the
21:00
SPEAKER_01: 250,000 signatures to the Secretary of State
21:06
SPEAKER_01: And not only did I deliver these,
21:08
SPEAKER_01: I'm now running for governor because the biggest thing,
21:10
SPEAKER_01: like you said,
21:11
SPEAKER_01: he doesn't have the resources.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: I bet if Ed announces a lot earlier,
21:15
SPEAKER_01: maybe some of the Dudley stuff moves over to Ed,
21:17
SPEAKER_01: maybe Chris doesn't even run.
21:18
And I feel like if there's an anti-Christine out there or just
21:23
not enamored by
21:24
SPEAKER_01: Christine,
21:25
SPEAKER_01: that momentum probably goes to Ed Deal.
21:29
SPEAKER_01: Maybe the other two pick up a little bit in that
21:37
SPEAKER_01: I think the rule is,
21:42
SPEAKER_00: and we've talked a little bit about this before,
21:44
SPEAKER_00: but the rule in the primary is announce first.
21:48
SPEAKER_00: Get out there first.
21:49
SPEAKER_00: Be the first candidate in the race.
21:51
Get the advantage of being the first to declare,
21:54
the first to fundraise,
21:55
the first to
21:56
That's Taking People's Attention In That Particular Race To
21:59
Your Name And I Think
22:00
And Then Drazen Adds On Top Of That The Fact That She's Run
22:03
Before And That Gives
22:05
SPEAKER_00: Her My Dog Is Moving So Pushing My Computer Setup Around He's A
22:11
He's a decent lap dog,
22:11
but he's very large,
22:12
so if he moves,
22:13
everything moves.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: And then having that, she had the infrastructure.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: You can kind of just turn the switch back on on the infrastructure,
22:21
SPEAKER_00: the big email list,
22:22
SPEAKER_00: the team,
22:23
SPEAKER_00: the staff,
22:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying that's what they're doing but they probably could have
22:44
I think Ed's race to me and I wrote this in the notes that
22:50
people can read if they
22:53
like to read but I put it in the show notes and it's I think
22:58
Ed's Ed deal to me is
22:59
the most interesting number in this poll I think we kind of
23:02
followed up with what
23:03
JL had where it showed kind of where Christine was probably
23:06
showed her even winning
23:07
SPEAKER_01: by a few more points even
23:10
and it shows that Dudley basically he's flat like I probably
23:15
wouldn't be surprised
23:17
if he ends up around 10% I think I think his numbers are going
23:22
to slip even more to
23:24
be honest with you I don't think I don't think he can buy
23:26
himself with all of that
23:28
money he can buy himself up because I think the momentum
23:30
because what I wrote in
23:32
there is like if you look at the crosstabs you can get into it
23:34
deal sits at 18% but
23:35
SPEAKER_01: 48%
23:38
SPEAKER_01: of likely GOP primary voters have never heard of them.
23:41
SPEAKER_01: And then the ones that like him is 29 to one.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: So he's got, he doesn't have any unfavorable.
23:46
SPEAKER_01: So they hear him, they see him and then 89% back him on the ballot test.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: So he's got his conversion rate, right?
23:54
SPEAKER_01: From that is really good.
23:56
And I think that's really good for Ed,
23:58
but without the money,
24:01
he can do it.
24:01
SPEAKER_01: But if somebody infused five, $600,000 into his campaign,
24:07
in this last minute which I don't see happening um it could it
24:11
could make a
24:12
difference and if you see maybe a a slowdown of people showing
24:18
up to vote like who
24:20
votes could matter for him but I just don't on based on the
24:23
numbers I just don't
24:25
see and based on what I'm seeing out there I haven't seen all
24:28
of a sudden an
24:29
SPEAKER_01: infusion of cash coming but uh
24:31
I think this is in my mind I put this as a Drazen at deal race
24:35
now I think it's I
24:37
think Chris Dudley is gonna find himself down around I mean I
24:41
if he gets the the
24:42
double digits I think he'll be happy or not happy but I think
24:47
that's about where
24:47
he's gonna end up so um and then the and then the other the
24:51
other thing that I
24:52
really looked at in this is that the undecided block is staying
24:56
resistant and there
24:59
SPEAKER_01: is um some
25:02
you know they're maybe they just and because of what you said
25:05
like nobody else is
25:06
challenging in the in the mailbox like they're kind of waiting
25:09
to see if somebody
25:11
can challenge Christine or somebody's going to bring something
25:15
that they're looking
25:15
for I don't know what that something is but I think that's what
25:18
they're looking for
25:19
yeah and I did this really cool thing where I looked at like
25:24
where are the
25:25
SPEAKER_01: undecideds
25:27
SPEAKER_01: So that was kind of my thing is like, okay, where are they, right?
25:30
SPEAKER_01: And so if you really look,
25:32
SPEAKER_01: they're all Eastern,
25:34
SPEAKER_01: Mid-Willamette Valley,
25:36
SPEAKER_01: and Southern Oregon have the most hard undecideds.
25:42
SPEAKER_01: So Eastern Oregon and Southern Oregon could really,
25:45
SPEAKER_01: and in Mid-Willamette Valley,
25:47
SPEAKER_01: you think Ed would do pretty well.
25:48
SPEAKER_01: So I think even Ed could not go on Portland TV and do...
25:54
SPEAKER_01: You know,
25:54
if he targeted those 4-4 Republicans and kind of some of those
25:58
regions that just
25:59
SPEAKER_01: don't know him yet,
26:01
SPEAKER_01: there's also a chance.
26:02
And he's picked up some decent endorsements out there from Todd
26:05
Nash to I think
26:06
SPEAKER_01: Mark Owens has endorsed Ed Deal.
26:09
SPEAKER_01: So there's he has a path.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: It's a narrow one.
26:15
But it's not through Portland or the metro area where a lot of
26:18
the Republicans up
26:19
SPEAKER_01: there probably decided.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: Right.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: So I think his path, I think, is the most interesting one.
26:25
SPEAKER_01: And I would say,
26:27
SPEAKER_01: actually,
26:28
SPEAKER_01: now,
26:28
SPEAKER_01: again,
26:29
SPEAKER_01: if I was on the ideal team,
26:31
SPEAKER_01: I would say,
26:31
SPEAKER_01: OK,
26:32
SPEAKER_01: I have a path and my path leads this way through Eastern Oregon.
26:37
SPEAKER_01: through Southern Oregon, through the Midland Valley.
26:40
I would just leave Portland completely alone because it's
26:43
Christine's home base.
26:45
SPEAKER_01: All the things,
26:46
those people kind of made up their mind based on what I'm
26:48
seeing in the Crosstabs
26:50
SPEAKER_01: is where are the hard undecideds?
26:52
And they're not in the area in which these three guys are most
26:56
typically known.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: And I guess the question is,
26:59
is because we talked about last time about how 80% of your vote
27:02
is on that I-5
27:03
SPEAKER_00: corridor.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: Is there enough vote out there to get him
27:07
Even close enough I think he's got to do a combination of
27:11
things He's got to do
27:12
that Eastern Oregon swing He's got to shore up the
27:15
Mid-Willamette Valley But then
27:17
he kind of also has to go take that 50% Who are currently
27:21
voting for Drazen Or some
27:22
SPEAKER_00: of that 50% But are willing to change their mind And again,
27:26
you're not going to do that by Not being in mailboxes Not being
27:30
on TV Maybe he's
27:31
SPEAKER_00: doing some texting that's targeted Again,
27:34
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the
27:36
SPEAKER_00: What the plans are here,
27:37
but I am shocked at the level of campaigning that is not
27:41
occurring right now.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: Really, I am.
27:44
And it feels like a race,
27:46
and because of that,
27:46
that's why it feels like the race is over.
27:48
It would feel more contested if I was getting Dudley and Deal
27:52
and Drazen Pieces,
27:53
SPEAKER_00: if I was getting bombarded by Tex,
27:55
SPEAKER_00: if there was an ad war.
27:56
SPEAKER_00: There just isn't one.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: There's no battle.
27:59
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: No, I'm with you.
28:01
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
28:01
SPEAKER_01: I'm seeing,
28:01
SPEAKER_01: like,
28:01
SPEAKER_01: where is,
28:02
SPEAKER_01: I looked at it,
28:02
SPEAKER_01: like,
28:03
SPEAKER_01: where is my path if I had to look for a path?
28:07
I think that's reasonable I would be Salem to Medford And back
28:12
and forth And
28:13
SPEAKER_01: everything in between Roseburg,
28:16
SPEAKER_01: Polk County,
28:17
Lynn County Douglas County And Jackson County You could
28:24
maximize your assets Of
28:26
hitting those Lane County's got a lot of Republicans You know
28:30
what I mean?
28:31
SPEAKER_01: Polk County's up around Salem I would hit
28:35
That area and just you know that's his only shot at victory at
28:41
this point but I'm
28:41
with you I think I almost feel like they even know it's over so
28:46
I feel like we're
28:47
doing this for the sake of doing it because Christine has run
28:51
quite frankly her
28:52
SPEAKER_01: campaign has been run the best
28:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
29:19
so outside of those guys you know bitching and moaning about
29:22
her who again nobody
29:24
cares about Oregon Firearms Federation because they're
29:27
pointless and a useless
29:28
organization that means nothing to nobody I don't know I would
29:34
say victory's over
29:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
29:36
and I think also you can tell that the complaints about
29:41
candidates you see on
29:42
SPEAKER_00: social media,
29:42
SPEAKER_00: again,
29:43
SPEAKER_00: as we talked about last time,
29:44
SPEAKER_00: do not translate into the real electorate.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: The real electorate doesn't care about that online stuff.
29:49
They like what they've seen from all the candidates,
29:51
but they like Christine the most.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
29:55
SPEAKER_01: And a lot of that's historical name ID, but that's, you know what?
29:58
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
29:58
SPEAKER_01: that's kind of why you do this stuff again,
30:01
SPEAKER_01: because you do get some of that historical name ID.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: Like you said, once you stop running...
30:06
SPEAKER_01: I haven't lived here 10 years, but it would have been Andy Olson.
30:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, see, there you go.
30:10
SPEAKER_01: But I mean...
30:24
a normal person like you're not yeah I'm not normal whatsoever
30:27
no absolutely not
30:29
absolutely you could probably say who was in leadership and all
30:32
the things 10 years
30:33
ago it starts to get it starts to get fuzzy uh but I was I was
30:38
talking with
30:39
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a thing
31:01
SPEAKER_01: Well, anyways, there you have it.
31:04
SPEAKER_01: We'll put this out.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: We'll put out a press release to send it to media,
31:08
but everything that we have is now downloadable for anybody and
31:12
everybody to
31:13
SPEAKER_01: digest.
31:13
SPEAKER_01: So we'll go from there.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
31:17
SPEAKER_00: Cool project, Brian.
31:18
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for doing this.
31:19
Yeah,
31:20
I think we'll do a couple of them in the general,
31:23
which might be kind of fun.
31:25
SPEAKER_01: So for some really competitive races, it'd be fun to put some
31:31
SPEAKER_01: We'll see,
31:32
SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
31:32
SPEAKER_01: the minority leaders might not want us to Hey,
31:37
SPEAKER_00: well,
31:38
SPEAKER_00: who cares what they think?
31:40
SPEAKER_01: I do, I mean, don't
31:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
31:43
SPEAKER_01: I enjoy working with them,
31:45
but I think that I think there's also something to be said for
31:48
being transparent
31:49
SPEAKER_01: with things.
31:51
SPEAKER_01: And I think sometimes if you're down a little bit,
31:53
SPEAKER_01: like having a bad pull helps energize the base to,
31:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
31:58
SPEAKER_01: turn turn the tide and go and get up off their butt and go help you out.
32:02
SPEAKER_01: Right.
32:02
SPEAKER_01: And sometimes we need that.
32:04
SPEAKER_01: So I think if we all think we're winning.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: You know, that's not a good place to be either.
32:24
SPEAKER_00: Reagan Knopp
32:39
A lot of these states haven't done yet We have every Republican
32:42
leaning district
32:43
There are some of these state legislatures Where they still
32:45
have blue dog Democrats
32:47
That they haven't been able to beat In red districts We beat
32:51
every one of them We
32:52
SPEAKER_00: have all of our red districts So there have been
32:55
Things that Oregon Republicans have been able to do That other
32:58
states haven't been
32:59
able to do But it's been winning these Portland Metro and some
33:02
of the other
33:03
contested races That have been a challenge in the last couple
33:05
of years So we'll see
33:06
if we can turn that around But we're going to have to do it
33:08
different We can't do
33:09
SPEAKER_00: it like they do
33:10
Yeah well the biggest takeaway for me is is in this polling and
33:14
in the last couple
33:15
of polls that we've seen and then watching these campaigns play
33:18
out and this is
33:18
just my final thought on it and I and I like all three of these
33:22
candidates I know
33:23
that probably all three of them don't share the same uh
33:28
reversed with me I have no
33:29
idea to be honest I mean because none of them are as honest as
33:32
me I believe that
33:33
SPEAKER_01: I'm honest and I and I was kind of counting it out
33:38
I see that there's a path based on the information given to me
33:42
I thought Dudley
33:43
would do better his first TV ad was decent the girls boys and
33:49
girls sports thing
33:50
came out super flat it's really not what people are talking
33:53
about you're not you're
33:55
not striking a nerve with Republican voters by you know Trump's
34:01
already talked
34:01
about it like federally they're working on issues with it like
34:04
it's not what
34:06
Everybody's Talking About Right Now That Was Like Two Years Ago
34:10
We Were All Talking
34:10
About That But Nobody's Really Talking About It Right Now And I
34:13
Think He Just
34:14
Missed I Think He Just Missed The Mark Again And I Think Dudley
34:19
If He Would
34:19
Announced In November He Would Be In A Way Different Place Now
34:22
I Think He Would
34:23
Have Been Able To Figure Out And Navigate His Lane But He
34:26
Didn't He Waited And
34:27
Hemmed And Hawed And Then Money Can Usually Buy You Into A Race
34:33
But If Executed
34:34
SPEAKER_01: Poorly
34:36
SPEAKER_01: You can almost fumble on top of it.
34:38
SPEAKER_01: And I think we saw the same thing with Betsy Johnson.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: She spent $20 million in a general election and you and I nailed it.
34:45
SPEAKER_01: Our over under in that race was 9%.
34:47
SPEAKER_01: And we were like right on the money that she was going to get about 9%.
34:51
SPEAKER_01: So $20 million buys you 9%.
34:53
SPEAKER_01: And I think that money doesn't always buy you.
34:55
SPEAKER_01: It buys you an opportunity.
34:58
SPEAKER_01: to change the voter's mind,
35:00
but it doesn't buy you an actual ability to change their mind
35:05
or their votes,
35:05
SPEAKER_01: right?
35:06
SPEAKER_01: So anyways, that's kind of my final take on it.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: Hard to disagree with that.
35:13
SPEAKER_01: Well, thank God.
35:15
SPEAKER_00: Hallelujah.
35:17
SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Reagan.
35:18
SPEAKER_01: Take care of that dog.
35:19
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Brian, don't waste too much more time in Nashville working.
35:23
I will man I'll be back I'll be back Wednesday and then we'll
35:26
go and then we'll
35:27
have you know these final primaries to the end we'll see they
35:30
seem to be our
35:32
legislative races are running out of money and which they
35:35
should be they should be
35:36
basically zero by the time they get done so we'll do some more
35:40
looking at that see
35:42
SPEAKER_01: you buddy see ya