Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Republicans STRIKE BACK!

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The Republicans STRIKE BACK! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  Well,
• 0:03
  we heard a lot about what the Democrats have been doing in the Senate,
• 0:06
  in the House,
• 0:07
  and all these governor's races.
• 0:09
  What is the GOP doing?
• 0:11
  Well,
• 0:11
  they do have a plan.
• 0:12
  I wanna go through it and walk you through kind of
• 0:14
  what they're gonna try to do here in the next 6 weeks
• 0:16
  to turn the tides on what's been a rough
• 0:18
  couple of weeks,
• 0:19
  especially in polling.
• 0:20
  We have a candidate update out of Ohio,
• 0:23
  and we,
• 0:24
  uh,
• 0:24
  have a few markets I kinda like.
• 0:27
  We'll get into those as well.
• 0:29
  Unpredictable with Sue.
• 0:30
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 0:31
  We're on YouTube at youtube.com/atpredictableshow
• 0:34
  and predictableshow.com.
• 0:50
  All right,
• 0:51
  here we go.
• 0:52
  Let's get to it.
• 0:53
  It's a big day,
• 0:54
  unpredictable with Stu making the
• 0:56
  Unpredictable world,
• 0:58
  just a little bit more predictable for you on a day to day basis,
• 1:01
  and we use prediction markets to try to dig down,
• 1:04
  understand the world a little bit better.
• 1:06
  I try to talk to you about the things that we're doing in prediction markets
• 1:09
  and give you a little preview
• 1:10
  as to what might come in the world because honestly,
• 1:12
  the media does a crappy job at it.
• 1:14
  This is one of the great Things about this,
• 1:15
  uh,
• 1:15
  world.
• 1:15
  The only thing that will make this,
• 1:17
  uh,
• 1:17
  show,
• 1:18
  this company
• 1:19
  succeed
• 1:19
  is we just have to depend
• 1:21
  on the media
• 1:22
  continuing to suck,
• 1:24
  and we're pretty confident that's gonna continue to happen.
• 1:26
  So
• 1:26
  thanks so much for joining us.
• 1:27
  We're 43 days away
• 1:29
  from the midterm elections,
• 1:30
  and if you didn't know this already.
• 1:33
  The election basically started this weekend.
• 1:35
  We have early voting
• 1:36
  that has already begun in several states,
• 1:38
  many states coming up as well as September 24th in Illinois.
• 1:41
  We've got Maine,
• 1:42
  California is right around the corner,
• 1:43
  and it goes through a bunch of dates
• 1:44
  after that as we enter into
• 1:46
  October.
• 1:47
  Couple of things I wanna tell you about at predictableShow.com.
• 1:49
  We've added a ton of features lately,
• 1:51
  and if you haven't been there in a while,
• 1:52
  you may wanna check out these features.
• 1:54
  Brand new that we just uh kind of put up there today,
• 1:57
  are the first four installments
• 2:00
  of Predictable 101.
• 2:02
  If you are new to prediction markets,
• 2:03
  if you have absolutely no idea what prediction markets are or how they work,
• 2:07
  and you're interested in getting into them and,
• 2:09
  and maybe investing a little bit,
• 2:11
  this is the series to walk you through step by step,
• 2:14
  every part of the process.
• 2:15
  I mean,
• 2:15
  and I'm talking about,
• 2:16
  we're starting at the very beginning.
• 2:17
  Cause I get this all the time.
• 2:19
  People are like,
• 2:19
  hey,
• 2:19
  you're talking about your,
• 2:20
  uh,
• 2:21
  how you're laddering out of a position.
• 2:22
  What the hell does that mean?
• 2:24
  How about telling me,
• 2:25
  I don't know the very basics.
• 2:27
  Like,
• 2:28
  what,
• 2:28
  how do these things work?
• 2:29
  What do I do?
• 2:30
  Where do I go?
• 2:31
  How do I sign up?
• 2:32
  How do I fund my account?
• 2:34
  How do I buy?
• 2:34
  How do I sell?
• 2:36
  Very basic things,
• 2:37
  and like,
• 2:38
  when you start a new thing,
• 2:39
  if you've never done them before,
• 2:40
  you have to understand these things,
• 2:42
  you have to learn them.
• 2:42
  So what we did is we decided to do like a,
• 2:44
  a basic,
• 2:45
  you know,
• 2:45
  set of,
• 2:46
  of videos
• 2:47
  that are like 3 or 4 minutes long.
• 2:49
  Things that are,
• 2:50
  that will kind of teach you the,
• 2:51
  the,
• 2:51
  the,
• 2:52
  from the ground floor all the way up,
• 2:54
  um,
• 2:54
  and that is now available at predictable101.com.
• 2:57
  If you go to predictable101.com,
• 2:59
  it'll direct you to these videos and uh you'll see here,
• 3:02
  look,
• 3:02
  there's a lesson one,
• 3:03
  what are prediction markets
• 3:04
  and how do they work?
• 3:05
  Very basic question.
• 3:06
  Lesson two,
• 3:07
  how to pick a platform,
• 3:08
  how to open an account,
• 3:09
  how to deposit money.
• 3:10
  Lesson number 3,
• 3:12
  how to fund your account?
• 3:13
  Uh,
• 3:14
  how does that work?
• 3:15
  And lesson number 4,
• 3:16
  the first way to buy is,
• 3:17
  uh,
• 3:18
  finding a market,
• 3:19
  making a prediction,
• 3:19
  and buying in dollars.
• 3:21
  We're gonna go through,
• 3:22
  uh,
• 3:22
  lesson 5 is coming soon and lesson 6 as well.
• 3:24
  These are kind of
• 3:25
  right around the corner.
• 3:26
  And then after that,
• 3:27
  there's also a printed guide that you can use that goes through.
• 3:31
  Everything that these videos will eventually cover,
• 3:33
  we're,
• 3:33
  well,
• 3:33
  we've,
• 3:34
  we've got 6 of them,
• 3:35
  4 of them are done,
• 3:36
  a couple more in,
• 3:37
  in the works,
• 3:37
  and we've got more coming after that.
• 3:39
  But if you wanna skip ahead,
• 3:40
  if you're like,
• 3:40
  I'm going ahead,
• 3:41
  you have the principal guide,
• 3:42
  uh,
• 3:43
  that is there available for you as well.
• 3:45
  Predictable 101.com.
• 3:48
  Uh,
• 3:48
  we also have the predictable midterm consensus.
• 3:50
  This is the election model that I built.
• 3:52
  Uh,
• 3:52
  this is something that will predict
• 3:54
  what is coming up,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:56
  when it comes to,
• 3:56
  I mean,
• 3:57
  I guess when I say it's predictable,
• 3:58
  um,
• 3:59
  midterm consensus,
• 3:59
  it is.
• 4:00
  The consensus is kind of the the part to focus on here.
• 4:02
  This is not my prediction
• 4:04
  as to what's gonna happen.
• 4:05
  This is what the actual experts and data are saying right now.
• 4:08
  If you scroll down,
• 4:09
  let's see the,
• 4:10
  the PMC,
• 4:10
  let's see what it has here.
• 4:12
  You got kind of like the takeaways from the update.
• 4:13
  Here we go.
• 4:14
  This is not great news if you happen to be
• 4:16
  a Republican or a conservative or want them to win.
• 4:18
  The House,
• 4:19
  an 85.6%
• 4:21
  chance of Democrats winning,
• 4:23
  and the Senate 58.6%.
• 4:25
  Now Republicans have been ahead in the Senate most of the time.
• 4:28
  They're still,
• 4:28
  I mean,
• 4:29
  58 to 41%
• 4:30
  is a gap.
• 4:31
  It's not like,
• 4:32
  it's like a leaning gap though.
• 4:33
  It's not like an
• 4:34
  overwhelming gap.
• 4:35
  The House is overwhelming,
• 4:37
  and I've been telling you for a while that I am buying.
• 4:39
  Uh,
• 4:40
  you know,
• 4:40
  I've been buying the Democrats winning the House since the beginning of the year.
• 4:43
  Like I,
• 4:43
  you know,
• 4:44
  and before that,
• 4:44
  before the show even started,
• 4:45
  I had shares of that
• 4:47
  because of his history and,
• 4:48
  and what I would expect to happen.
• 4:50
  What is notable about this is you will see now the markets,
• 4:53
  if you see below right there,
• 4:54
  it says House 85.6%,
• 4:55
  but below that,
• 4:56
  uh,
• 4:56
  it says,
• 4:57
  now you don't have to scroll anymore,
• 4:58
  Adam.
• 4:59
  Um,
• 4:59
  it says,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 4:59
  the comparison is,
• 5:00
  uh,
• 5:01
  Cal Sheet has a 90.7% chance
• 5:04
  for the Democrats to win the House.
• 5:05
  Polly market 92.5%.
• 5:08
  For the first time,
• 5:09
  these markets are now in the 90s and they are
• 5:12
  more favorable for Democrats
• 5:14
  in the House
• 5:15
  than you see,
• 5:17
  um,
• 5:17
  uh,
• 5:18
  in the,
• 5:19
  in the model of the expert's opinion.
• 5:20
  The reverse is true in the Senate where
• 5:22
  the markets are actually a little more skeptical
• 5:25
  of the chances,
• 5:26
  uh,
• 5:26
  actually,
• 5:26
  now they've now moved ahead.
• 5:28
  Wow,
• 5:28
  look at that,
• 5:28
  60.9%.
• 5:29
  It's been,
• 5:29
  it's been the reverse the entire time
• 5:32
  where
• 5:33
  Uh,
• 5:33
  for a long time,
• 5:34
  the Calci and poly market percentages
• 5:38
  were more favorable,
• 5:40
  uh,
• 5:40
  for Republicans.
• 5:41
  Now they are slightly less favorable for Republicans.
• 5:43
  So there you go,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  that's how that goes.
• 5:45
  And by the way,
• 5:45
  if you are a premium subscriber at predictableShow.com,
• 5:48
  we break down every single Senate race in that model as well,
• 5:51
  so you can check the gaps and look for opportunities.
• 5:53
  To invest.
• 5:54
  If you are an investor in prediction markets,
• 5:56
  it is a great membership for you.
• 5:57
  It will pay for itself,
• 5:58
  in my opinion,
• 5:59
  at least of the value over and over again.
• 6:01
  And we've seen that from many of the people who have subscribed and said,
• 6:04
  look,
• 6:04
  I,
• 6:04
  you know,
• 6:04
  I've already actually profited
• 6:06
  off of particular markets using this stuff,
• 6:08
  so
• 6:09
  check that out.
• 6:09
  So I wanna go into that though,
• 6:10
  because we do have,
• 6:11
  uh,
• 6:12
  the PMC telling us an,
• 6:14
  uh,
• 6:14
  an 80% chance
• 6:16
  of Republicans,
• 6:17
  uh,
• 6:17
  losing the House,
• 6:18
  uh,
• 6:19
  60% chance or so that they're gonna lose the Senate.
• 6:22
  What are they gonna do?
• 6:23
  They're gonna take this,
• 6:24
  uh,
• 6:24
  lying down.
• 6:25
  They're gonna do nothing about it?
• 6:26
  Are they gonna hope for these races to push out the right way?
• 6:28
  No,
• 6:29
  I,
• 6:29
  I think we're at that point,
• 6:31
  and we're,
• 6:31
  this is happening in September,
• 6:32
  it's gonna go into October,
• 6:34
  where we're at the sort of
• 6:35
  empire strikes back moment,
• 6:37
  if you will.
• 6:38
  This is the moment where,
• 6:40
  uh,
• 6:40
  you have the,
• 6:41
  the Republicans
• 6:43
  who are saying,
• 6:44
  you know what,
• 6:45
  we can't take this lying down.
• 6:46
  We need to do something
• 6:47
  to minimize the damage and maybe advance some of these seats.
• 6:51
  And that is one of the things that are is going on right now,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:56
  in,
• 6:56
  in the entire country,
• 6:57
  but in these key Senate races
• 6:59
  in particular.
• 7:00
  Now I will say,
• 7:00
  uh,
• 7:01
  you might say,
• 7:01
  well,
• 7:01
  do they even have a plan?
• 7:02
  Yeah,
• 7:02
  they have a plan.
• 7:03
  They're building a Death Star.
• 7:04
  Now I will say,
• 7:05
  knowing the Republicans,
• 7:06
  there is a Good chance
• 7:07
  the Death Star
• 7:08
  has a ventilation shaft
• 7:10
  that leads right to a self-destruct mechanism.
• 7:12
  That's kind of
• 7:14
  how Republicans typically operate in these situations,
• 7:16
  but they are doing their best
• 7:17
  to push back against the Democratic wave that I will say this.
• 7:22
  Trying to think when the last time I saw language like this was.
• 7:26
  I would probably have to go back
• 7:27
  to 20,
• 7:28
  now this is gonna be comforting
• 7:29
  and shocking at the same time.
• 7:31
  I will go back to 2016,
• 7:33
  where it looked like,
• 7:34
  gosh,
• 7:34
  oh gosh,
• 7:35
  Republicans are gonna do terrible.
• 7:36
  They had this crazy man,
• 7:37
  Donald Trump,
• 7:37
  as the nominee who has no chance of winning,
• 7:40
  and we saw a lot of that talk then.
• 7:42
  We then saw it again in 2018.
• 7:44
  The difference in 2016 and 2018 in 2016,
• 7:46
  that talk was not correct.
• 7:47
  In 2018,
• 7:48
  it kind of was.
• 7:49
  2018,
• 7:50
  you may remember,
• 7:51
  first midterm election
• 7:53
  under Donald Trump.
• 7:54
  So that is the race that we look back to often
• 7:57
  to try to say,
• 7:57
  wait a minute,
• 7:58
  what,
• 7:58
  what is this gonna look like?
• 7:59
  The generic ballot.
• 8:00
  Ballot numbers,
• 8:01
  which are numbers if you just kind of ask people,
• 8:03
  hey,
• 8:04
  you know,
• 8:04
  what do you think?
• 8:05
  We could vote for Republicans or Democrats,
• 8:07
  the numbers are about the same as they were in 2018 right now.
• 8:10
  In some ways they look worse,
• 8:11
  in some ways they look a little bit better,
• 8:13
  but generally speaking,
• 8:14
  looking at a bad year for Republicans as sort of the surface level expectation,
• 8:19
  and then we go a little bit farther to see what's gonna happen.
• 8:22
  Will the Death Star at least blow up Alderon?
• 8:24
  Uh,
• 8:25
  maybe it'll at least blow up Alderron.
• 8:27
  It might not be able to blow up the entire SAR system or the entire,
• 8:30
  uh,
• 8:30
  resistance,
• 8:31
  but maybe they get Alderron,
• 8:32
  right?
• 8:33
  That's all you're kind of hoping for if you
• 8:35
  happen to be a Republican consultant these days.
• 8:37
  Um,
• 8:37
  and one of the ways that they're doing this is
• 8:40
  something that is,
• 8:41
  has kind of a history
• 8:43
  in the Trump era.
• 8:45
  Donald Trump,
• 8:45
  if you remember in 2016,
• 8:47
  really didn't have any money.
• 8:48
  I mean,
• 8:48
  he had his own money.
• 8:50
  And he used a lot of his own money in 2016 to get elected,
• 8:53
  but there wasn't a huge support network behind him because a,
• 8:56
  a lot of Republicans just thought he was going to lose.
• 8:59
  And B,
• 8:59
  he wasn't friendly with anyone in the Republican Party at that point.
• 9:02
  He didn't have any
• 9:03
  basis,
• 9:04
  uh,
• 9:05
  for,
• 9:05
  uh,
• 9:05
  fundraising.
• 9:06
  He was not
• 9:07
  good at fundraising at that time.
• 9:08
  He did not get a lot of money in 2016.
• 9:10
  He had to spend a lot of his own money
• 9:12
  to get elected in the first place.
• 9:14
  As
• 9:14
  the Republican Party transferred from,
• 9:17
  uh,
• 9:17
  you know,
• 9:18
  a traditional Republican Party that had been around for a while
• 9:21
  into what it is now.
• 9:22
  Which is,
• 9:23
  you know,
• 9:23
  you probably say just a vehicle for
• 9:25
  the MAGA movement,
• 9:27
  right?
• 9:27
  There's very few
• 9:28
  of the sort of traditional Republicans
• 9:30
  that are left,
• 9:31
  at least running on a lot of that stuff.
• 9:32
  Um,
• 9:33
  there's certainly a lot of crossover between traditional Republican
• 9:36
  stuff and conservative values
• 9:38
  and the MAGA,
• 9:39
  um,
• 9:39
  movement,
• 9:40
  but this is Trump's party now.
• 9:42
  He does have all those levers.
• 9:43
  He does have ways to get lots and lots of money.
• 9:45
  He is capable of raising it.
• 9:46
  And so he used that
• 9:48
  starting in 2020 and 2024.
• 9:51
  Uh,
• 9:51
  to,
• 9:52
  uh,
• 9:52
  direct money in
• 9:53
  specific ways.
• 9:54
  One of the things I think he got used to,
• 9:56
  in 2016,
• 9:56
  he didn't have any money.
• 9:57
  He got some money late in the game,
• 9:59
  and that pushed him over the,
• 10:00
  over the,
• 10:01
  the hump,
• 10:01
  2020.
• 10:02
  He kind of decided to implement a,
• 10:04
  and that was a weird year,
• 10:05
  of course,
• 10:05
  with COVID,
• 10:06
  but implemented a system where he used the money,
• 10:09
  yes,
• 10:09
  and he directed a lot of the money.
• 10:11
  But he didn't,
• 10:12
  he kind of waited a little bit.
• 10:13
  He didn't,
• 10:13
  he wasn't early.
• 10:14
  2024,
• 10:15
  he really used this to great effect,
• 10:17
  and that he,
• 10:18
  he wasn't dumping money into ads six months in advance.
• 10:23
  There's been a long-term strategy,
• 10:24
  if you think the strategy,
• 10:25
  if you think of the strategy,
• 10:26
  it does make some sense,
• 10:27
  and that you get worried if you don't
• 10:29
  run ads early that your opponent will define you.
• 10:32
  The only ads they'll be seeing will be negative ads about you,
• 10:35
  positive ads about them.
• 10:36
  And you will be in a lot,
• 10:38
  a whole heap of trouble.
• 10:40
  Trump,
• 10:40
  I think,
• 10:41
  has basically said,
• 10:42
  look,
• 10:42
  the media is gonna cover us anyway.
• 10:44
  They're gonna cover these races anyway.
• 10:46
  We're of course gonna get trashed by the media,
• 10:47
  but we'll have a chance to make our arguments in those moments.
• 10:50
  And what we need is to dump money into the,
• 10:53
  the structure,
• 10:54
  right?
• 10:55
  The turning points of the world,
• 10:56
  right,
• 10:56
  who are really working behind the scenes to get people out to vote.
• 10:59
  So you work hard on that,
• 11:00
  spend the money there.
• 11:02
  And on the ads you kind of wait till more of the last minute.
• 11:05
  That is the Death Star that is here,
• 11:07
  uh,
• 11:07
  if you happen to,
• 11:09
  uh,
• 11:09
  understand and
• 11:11
  are OK with my very strained analogy,
• 11:13
  uh,
• 11:13
  at this point.
• 11:15
  Uh,
• 11:15
  Republicans are unleashing their fundraising advantage against the Democrats.
• 11:18
  President Trump
• 11:19
  and his allies are pouring money into key races to counter Democratic momentum
• 11:23
  ahead of the midterms.
• 11:24
  I want to give you some stats here from the Wall Street Journal,
• 11:25
  who are,
• 11:26
  who are the ones covering this.
• 11:28
  Uh,
• 11:28
  advertisers supporting Republicans across 10
• 11:31
  key Senate races have spent more than $204 million
• 11:35
  in the 1st 18 days of September.
• 11:38
  This is.
• 11:39
  The Death Star,
• 11:40
  they are unleashing it.
• 11:41
  That's $83 million more
• 11:44
  than those helping Democrats.
• 11:46
  Uh,
• 11:46
  it is a sharp turn from all of August when basically they were even.
• 11:50
  It's a few million dollars advantage for Republicans in August,
• 11:52
  but before that
• 11:53
  it really was more heavily,
• 11:55
  uh,
• 11:55
  Democratic.
• 11:56
  Now,
• 11:56
  let me show you a few of the,
• 11:57
  uh,
• 11:58
  a few of the markets here in a second,
• 12:00
  but I wanna give you a couple of these stats,
• 12:02
  um,
• 12:02
  as,
• 12:03
  uh,
• 12:04
  uh,
• 12:04
  this is kind of a,
• 12:05
  uh,
• 12:05
  uh,
• 12:06
  uh,
• 12:06
  just a cute,
• 12:06
  I had,
• 12:07
  I have to bring this up.
• 12:07
  A quick sidebar from the prediction market Republican.
• 12:11
  Um,
• 12:11
  um,
• 12:12
  consensus,
• 12:12
  uh,
• 12:13
  sort of view here.
• 12:14
  This is a quote.
• 12:15
  Quote,
• 12:16
  The hole that Donald Trump has dug for the,
• 12:18
  uh,
• 12:18
  Republicans and continues to dig every day is not something that can be
• 12:21
  made up with a few $100 million worth of feel-good ads said.
• 12:26
  Elizabeth Warren.
• 12:28
  Saying that people are angry about the economy,
• 12:30
  uh,
• 12:30
  and the Iran war and corruption.
• 12:31
  You might remember the name Elizabeth Warren,
• 12:33
  the person who's been telling you
• 12:36
  since Citizens United that anyone who now all billionaires can just buy elections.
• 12:41
  Well,
• 12:41
  why doesn't $100 million move the needle then,
• 12:44
  Liz?
• 12:45
  I'm curious,
• 12:47
  is it because your entire point that whole time was nonsense?
• 12:50
  Could it be that?
• 12:51
  Could it be that you can't actually buy?
• 12:53
  Ask Michael Bloomberg how easy it is to buy an election.
• 12:57
  Oh gosh,
• 12:58
  it's so stupid.
• 12:59
  The most dramatic uptick came in Texas,
• 13:01
  $62 million in ads supporting Ken Paxton this month
• 13:04
  compared to about $17 million
• 13:07
  behind Democratic
• 13:08
  candidate James Tallarico.
• 13:10
  This is the total reverse as to what we've seen
• 13:13
  until this month.
• 13:14
  Before this month,
• 13:15
  James Tallarico was outspending Ken Paxton
• 13:17
  6789 to 1.
• 13:19
  And now
• 13:20
  Republican money is coming in.
• 13:22
  Now,
• 13:22
  the,
• 13:22
  the polls have not really improved for Paxton.
• 13:24
  Spoiler alert.
• 13:25
  I'm gonna talk about that here in a second,
• 13:26
  but.
• 13:27
  This is the effort to be put in
• 13:29
  to say,
• 13:29
  hey,
• 13:29
  Ken Paxson actually is putting criminals in prison.
• 13:32
  Uh,
• 13:32
  I've seen the ads.
• 13:33
  I see them constantly here.
• 13:34
  Um,
• 13:35
  Ken Paxson's putting people away in prison.
• 13:36
  He's put away people who were abusing children,
• 13:39
  who had this network of,
• 13:40
  of weird,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:41
  you know,
• 13:41
  pedophiles and all that other stuff.
• 13:43
  He's pushing back against that.
• 13:44
  He's,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:45
  putting,
• 13:46
  uh,
• 13:46
  shame on Tallarico for all the crazy stuff he's said over the years,
• 13:49
  uh,
• 13:49
  and said during woke one,
• 13:50
  which you might remember.
• 13:51
  Woke one was crazy.
• 13:52
  Well,
• 13:53
  it was crazy and James Tallarico was a huge part of that,
• 13:55
  and that's one of the reasons why
• 13:56
  uh Paxson is constantly out there saying,
• 13:59
  you know,
• 13:59
  basically running ads that are quoting James Tallarico,
• 14:02
  old-time James Tallarico,
• 14:04
  back,
• 14:04
  I don't know if you remember how old you were in 2020,
• 14:07
  uh,
• 14:07
  but way back in 2020 and 2021 when he was saying
• 14:09
  these things that he now says he doesn't believe anymore,
• 14:12
  conveniently when he's trying to appeal to,
• 14:14
  uh,
• 14:14
  moderates.
• 14:16
  Georgia and North Carolina
• 14:17
  races considered leaning toward Democrats at spending margins are tighter
• 14:20
  and activity ramped up in August.
• 14:22
  Since then,
• 14:23
  uh,
• 14:23
  spending supporting Senator Jon Ossoff totaled
• 14:26
  $35 million compared to $26 million for his GOP opponent Mike Collins,
• 14:31
  uh,
• 14:31
  in North Carolina at spending,
• 14:33
  uh,
• 14:33
  favoring,
• 14:34
  um,
• 14:35
  Republican National Committee member,
• 14:37
  uh,
• 14:37
  and former chair Michael Watley totaled $33 million in August
• 14:41
  ahead of $25 million for Roy Cooper.
• 14:43
  I will say this.
• 14:45
  You gotta spend your money in the right places.
• 14:47
  Spending tens of millions of dollars in those two races,
• 14:50
  I would argue,
• 14:51
  not good use of your money.
• 14:52
  And that's not offense to any of the guys running in those,
• 14:55
  I know,
• 14:55
  uh,
• 14:55
  Ossoff and,
• 14:56
  uh,
• 14:56
  excuse me,
• 14:57
  uh,
• 14:57
  Collins and Watley
• 14:58
  have high hopes.
• 14:59
  They want to win those races.
• 15:01
  I really think it's an uphill battle and Republicans
• 15:03
  have to get serious and make tough choices.
• 15:06
  If you are gonna spend a bunch of money to try to unseat Jon Ossoff right now,
• 15:09
  I think you're gonna be disappointed.
• 15:11
  And that money,
• 15:11
  $26 million could go to Paxton,
• 15:14
  could go to some of these other races we're about to talk about.
• 15:17
  Uh,
• 15:17
  here,
• 15:17
  um,
• 15:18
  $78 million has been spent since August in Ohio,
• 15:21
  spending,
• 15:21
  uh,
• 15:22
  supporting Husted,
• 15:23
  John Husted.
• 15:24
  Um,
• 15:24
  ad impact shows
• 15:26
  ahead of $57 million for Brown.
• 15:29
  Um,
• 15:29
  in Maine,
• 15:30
  backers of Collins,
• 15:31
  Susan Collins have spent $41 million since August,
• 15:34
  more than $29 million for
• 15:35
  Troy Jackson.
• 15:37
  Republicans need to do this.
• 15:38
  They're now looking at other seats that seemed insurmountable at the time.
• 15:42
  Seats like,
• 15:43
  I don't know,
• 15:44
  Kansas.
• 15:45
  Where,
• 15:46
  uh,
• 15:46
  uh,
• 15:46
  Roger Marshall is facing an upstart
• 15:48
  challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton.
• 15:50
  He's a minister
• 15:51
  in a church that,
• 15:52
  you know,
• 15:52
  like a social justice type church,
• 15:55
  uh,
• 15:55
  at least that's how he's running it.
• 15:56
  I don't know how the constituents of the church are or what they think,
• 15:59
  um,
• 16:00
  but,
• 16:00
  you know,
• 16:00
  he,
• 16:00
  you know,
• 16:01
  they,
• 16:01
  they did a bunch of,
• 16:02
  you know,
• 16:02
  kind of,
• 16:02
  again,
• 16:03
  woke one was crazy,
• 16:04
  wasn't it?
• 16:04
  Uh,
• 16:05
  you also have,
• 16:05
  uh,
• 16:05
  Senator Sherrod Brown is,
• 16:07
  of course,
• 16:07
  the opponent in,
• 16:08
  in Alabama,
• 16:09
  uh,
• 16:09
  excuse me,
• 16:09
  Ohio.
• 16:10
  And then in Alaska,
• 16:11
  you have,
• 16:11
  uh,
• 16:12
  Dan Sullivan against
• 16:13
  Mary Peltola,
• 16:14
  who's a,
• 16:14
  you know,
• 16:14
  very good candidate in Alaska for Alaska.
• 16:17
  Um,
• 16:18
  by the way,
• 16:18
  I've mentioned this market before,
• 16:19
  we don't,
• 16:19
  we're not gonna be able to pull up the graphic,
• 16:20
  but I've mentioned this market before and I love this market.
• 16:23
  Who will Bernie Sanders endorse in these races?
• 16:25
  And there's a bunch of these candidates that I'm talking about,
• 16:27
  these moderate sort of races
• 16:29
  where Bernie Sanders,
• 16:30
  will he endorse,
• 16:31
  you know,
• 16:31
  Mary Peltola,
• 16:32
  will he endorse
• 16:33
  James Tallarico in Texas?
• 16:35
  These are all races where the Democrats are doing everything they can.
• 16:39
  Look at,
• 16:40
  wow,
• 16:40
  look at the speed of that control room over there,
• 16:43
  bringing up the markets.
• 16:44
  Uh,
• 16:46
  James Talrico,
• 16:47
  will he,
• 16:47
  now it's down to 20%.
• 16:48
  Dan Osborne's another great 1,
• 16:50
  15%.
• 16:51
  Will he endorse him?
• 16:51
  Why would Bernie Sanders endorse any of these people?
• 16:54
  Uh,
• 16:55
  you know,
• 16:55
  in these moderate races.
• 16:57
  They're trying to convince voters
• 16:59
  that they are,
• 17:01
  uh,
• 17:01
  you know,
• 17:02
  people who are moderates and they are basically Republicans.
• 17:05
  I mean,
• 17:06
  uh,
• 17:06
  they just couldn't get their name on the Republican ballot in time.
• 17:09
  They're independents,
• 17:10
  they're Democrats,
• 17:10
  trust us.
• 17:12
  Why would Bernie Sanders do this?
• 17:13
  Now,
• 17:13
  Bernie Sanders is a little nutty.
• 17:15
  Uh,
• 17:16
  he will do things
• 17:17
  outside of the grand plan,
• 17:18
  so there is a chance,
• 17:20
  uh,
• 17:20
  that he does endorse in these races,
• 17:21
  but I have,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:22
  money on a bunch of these candidates because I don't believe
• 17:25
  it wouldn't make any sense if,
• 17:26
  if Bernie Sanders
• 17:28
  endorsed James Tallarico today,
• 17:29
  it would appear in zero James Tallarico ads and every Ken Paxton ad.
• 17:35
  There would be no reason for him to do that unless he's just
• 17:38
  trying to sink the Tallarico campaign.
• 17:41
  So I love those.
• 17:43
  I love that market right now.
• 17:44
  The question is how much
• 17:46
  um volume is in there,
• 17:47
  but anyway,
• 17:47
  that's a little side benefit.
• 17:49
  Not even,
• 17:49
  here's one I kind of like,
• 17:50
  it's one I love
• 17:52
  and uh and and that's that one's coming to you for free.
• 17:54
  You know,
• 17:55
  the least you could do is go to predictableShow.com and become a free subscriber
• 17:58
  after a piece of a nugget like that.
• 18:01
  Something that's guaranteed,
• 18:02
  not at all guaranteed,
• 18:03
  but guaranteed,
• 18:04
  uh,
• 18:05
  in,
• 18:05
  in parlance,
• 18:06
  uh,
• 18:06
  to,
• 18:06
  uh,
• 18:07
  to,
• 18:07
  to profit.
• 18:07
  I think it's a great position.
• 18:08
  I actually really like that one,
• 18:09
  so I'm gonna keep
• 18:10
  trying to grow that position.
• 18:12
  The problem is I started buying it all this stuff really early,
• 18:14
  and now none of it seems like a value,
• 18:16
  because I'm not the only person.
• 18:17
  Apparently,
• 18:18
  the,
• 18:18
  the,
• 18:19
  the premium subscribers are already looking at that and saying,
• 18:21
  wait a minute,
• 18:22
  I'm gonna do that too,
• 18:23
  and a bunch of other people are deciding it,
• 18:24
  and now,
• 18:25
  now it's the prices aren't quite as good as they were.
• 18:27
  So now,
• 18:27
  I don't feel like putting more money into it
• 18:29
  because now they don't feel like good prices.
• 18:31
  To me,
• 18:31
  but to you,
• 18:32
  I bet they are.
• 18:32
  Anyway,
• 18:33
  uh,
• 18:33
  let me show you some of these other markets.
• 18:34
  Uh,
• 18:34
  Georgia,
• 18:35
  Senate,
• 18:35
  uh,
• 18:35
  this is,
• 18:36
  uh,
• 18:36
  Collins and Ossoff.
• 18:37
  Look,
• 18:38
  the bottom line is
• 18:39
  I have a bunch of,
• 18:40
  uh,
• 18:40
  uh,
• 18:41
  high,
• 18:41
  uh,
• 18:41
  money,
• 18:41
  uh,
• 18:42
  position on Jon Ossoff,
• 18:43
  uh,
• 18:43
  to win this race.
• 18:44
  I don't think Mike Collins is going to win it.
• 18:47
  Uh,
• 18:47
  it's at 93.5%.
• 18:49
  Again,
• 18:49
  we're talking about tens of millions of dollars
• 18:51
  Republicans are putting into this race right now.
• 18:53
  You gotta make tough choices.
• 18:55
  North Carolina,
• 18:55
  the same story.
• 18:57
  North Carolina is,
• 18:58
  is Roy Cooper.
• 18:59
  Cooper is a,
• 19:00
  is a tough
• 19:01
  candidate because he's well known in the state,
• 19:03
  and it's just like one of these races that I just don't
• 19:05
  think Michael Watley is gonna get over the finish line on this.
• 19:07
  I would like him to personally as a conservative,
• 19:10
  but
• 19:10
  look,
• 19:11
  I just don't think it's gonna happen,
• 19:12
  and these are the types of races you just need to cut bait,
• 19:14
  uh,
• 19:14
  bait on eventually
• 19:15
  and just give up.
• 19:16
  Uh,
• 19:17
  but I,
• 19:17
  you know,
• 19:18
  again,
• 19:18
  if I'm Michael Watley,
• 19:19
  I'm like,
• 19:19
  uh,
• 19:19
  no,
• 19:20
  don't do that,
• 19:21
  please.
• 19:21
  Uh,
• 19:21
  it's,
• 19:22
  I mean,
• 19:22
  the polls aren't,
• 19:23
  it's not like 20 point margins here.
• 19:25
  I think it's high single digits,
• 19:26
  but with the,
• 19:27
  with the climate that we're in,
• 19:28
  it's a little bit difficult,
• 19:30
  and I would say those are some that you might want to think about.
• 19:32
  Now,
• 19:32
  I disagree with cutting bait by any means in,
• 19:35
  in Maine.
• 19:36
  I think this is a true toss-up race,
• 19:37
  maybe the most tossiest.
• 19:39
  Of all of our toss-ups
• 19:40
  in Maine,
• 19:41
  Susan Collins is there.
• 19:42
  Uh,
• 19:42
  and again,
• 19:43
  you know,
• 19:43
  Troy Jackson is at 68% to win this race.
• 19:46
  I think that is overblown.
• 19:47
  You see the way that this,
• 19:48
  uh,
• 19:48
  market has moved though.
• 19:50
  Um,
• 19:51
  Graham Plattner was way ahead,
• 19:52
  had his scandals,
• 19:52
  it crashed back down to basically 50/50 and has expanded ever since.
• 19:56
  Troy Jackson at 68%,
• 19:57
  Susan Collins at 32%.
• 19:58
  I continue to think
• 19:59
  Collins is a value.
• 20:01
  From 30 to 35 cents in that range,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:03
  because I think there's a good chance,
• 20:05
  uh,
• 20:05
  that she's gonna be very close in this race,
• 20:07
  and who knows.
• 20:08
  Uh,
• 20:08
  and then in Michigan,
• 20:09
  another one I think is a toss-up.
• 20:10
  This is another place where a lot of money going in by the Republicans,
• 20:13
  and again,
• 20:13
  I think this is a good targeting of money,
• 20:15
  though
• 20:16
  Abdul Al Sayed is up to a 66% chance
• 20:18
  to win this race,
• 20:20
  according to Calsie,
• 20:20
  Mike Rogers at 34%.
• 20:23
  The main reason I would just say,
• 20:24
  uh,
• 20:24
  the thing I would say here
• 20:26
  is right now,
• 20:27
  the Democrats are on a sugar high.
• 20:29
  Um,
• 20:30
  two things have happened,
• 20:31
  uh,
• 20:32
  outside of,
• 20:32
  uh,
• 20:32
  everything that we're talking about today.
• 20:34
  One,
• 20:35
  Is a New York Times Sienna poll,
• 20:36
  a very highly respected pollster that was disastrous for Republicans.
• 20:39
  It was only one poll,
• 20:40
  but it's a poll that affects all these models,
• 20:42
  including the predictable
• 20:43
  midterm consensus,
• 20:44
  the PMC,
• 20:45
  uh,
• 20:46
  constantly.
• 20:47
  And uh it really affects them,
• 20:50
  really has a lot of weight,
• 20:51
  and it's very recent and it was terrible for Republicans all over the board.
• 20:54
  So that's part one.
• 20:55
  Part two is a lot of these polls have changed the way that they
• 20:59
  uh include voters
• 21:01
  for,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:02
  up until basically Labor Day or so
• 21:04
  they used the,
• 21:06
  uh,
• 21:07
  the registered voter model where they would say,
• 21:09
  are you registered to vote?
• 21:10
  Yes,
• 21:10
  I am.
• 21:10
  OK,
• 21:11
  you're included.
• 21:12
  What they are converting to now is a
• 21:15
  likely voter screen.
• 21:16
  They are saying,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  trying to,
• 21:18
  they give you multiple tests essentially to see if you're actually a likely voter.
• 21:21
  If you are a registered voter that hasn't voted in the past 5 elections,
• 21:25
  well,
• 21:25
  guess what?
• 21:25
  You're not a likely voter.
• 21:26
  They don't think you're gonna vote in this one.
• 21:28
  If you skip every midterm and you only vote in presidential elections,
• 21:31
  they don't think you're gonna vote,
• 21:32
  so you're not gonna be included.
• 21:34
  A lot of that has to do with,
• 21:35
  with,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  enthusiasm.
• 21:36
  And right now I was talking to somebody
• 21:38
  recently who's very tied into Texas politics.
• 21:40
  Who basically told me like what they think,
• 21:43
  um,
• 21:43
  what is going on right now is that there are a few
• 21:45
  frustration points with the president and the way things are going,
• 21:48
  uh,
• 21:49
  the Iran war,
• 21:50
  gas prices,
• 21:51
  tariffs,
• 21:52
  a few other things.
• 21:53
  And because of that,
• 21:54
  what Republicans are worried about
• 21:56
  is that Republicans won't
• 21:57
  get out to the polls.
• 21:58
  They're just gonna not,
• 21:59
  they're not gonna vote for James Tallarico in Texas,
• 22:02
  but they are going to stay home,
• 22:03
  and that's gonna be a big problem,
• 22:05
  um,
• 22:05
  for Republicans in those states.
• 22:07
  Now,
• 22:07
  we're seeing this reflected in All these changes that I'm talking about
• 22:11
  are reflected in the prediction markets and
• 22:13
  in the data overall.
• 22:14
  Texas Senate race shifts to lean D
• 22:17
  in prediction market forecast.
• 22:19
  Yes,
• 22:19
  I mean,
• 22:19
  for a long time,
• 22:21
  Ken Paxton was the slight favorite.
• 22:22
  That's changing now.
• 22:24
  Here's what that market looks like in Texas.
• 22:26
  And you see,
• 22:27
  uh,
• 22:27
  now James Tallarico has a 58,
• 22:30
  59%
• 22:32
  leader.
• 22:32
  Uh,
• 22:33
  on this,
• 22:33
  and you see,
• 22:34
  really,
• 22:34
  he didn't lead until
• 22:35
  the beginning of this month.
• 22:37
  It was basically fifty-fifty for a while.
• 22:39
  Give me a month on this,
• 22:40
  Adam,
• 22:40
  uh,
• 22:41
  as far as time frame goes and just show you how crazy this is.
• 22:43
  I mean,
• 22:44
  you really see it ticking up
• 22:46
  quickly.
• 22:47
  If you look at this,
• 22:47
  you see
• 22:48
  really a tie until mid-September,
• 22:50
  and over the past couple of weeks,
• 22:53
  we've apparently been completely convinced that James Tallarico
• 22:56
  is going to win.
• 22:57
  Look,
• 22:58
  I
• 22:59
  I have told you,
• 22:59
  I have a couple of pieces of analysis on this.
• 23:01
  I've given you large portions of data.
• 23:03
  Uh,
• 23:03
  we went over a big chunk of it
• 23:05
  when we were talking about Greg Abbott earlier,
• 23:07
  uh,
• 23:07
  maybe last week.
• 23:09
  My main central point here
• 23:11
  with James Tallarico is,
• 23:13
  how could this guy possibly win?
• 23:15
  That's,
• 23:15
  that's my main part of my analysis.
• 23:18
  He is the most,
• 23:19
  I,
• 23:19
  I,
• 23:19
  I like,
• 23:20
  he looks like the,
• 23:21
  the,
• 23:22
  uh,
• 23:23
  the youth pastor at your church that left a disgrace.
• 23:26
  I,
• 23:26
  I don't understand how
• 23:27
  he can win a state like Texas.
• 23:29
  I don't get it.
• 23:30
  Who knows?
• 23:31
  Maybe he will.
• 23:32
  Now,
• 23:32
  up until this point,
• 23:34
  a good argument for it was he was outspending and out raising Ken Paxson 78,
• 23:38
  and 9 to 1.
• 23:39
  So yeah,
• 23:40
  of course,
• 23:40
  he can win.
• 23:41
  He doesn't have that excuse now.
• 23:42
  I mean,
• 23:42
  in this,
• 23:43
  in this article,
• 23:44
  uh,
• 23:44
  John Kennedy,
• 23:45
  uh,
• 23:46
  Senator Kennedy,
• 23:46
  is it John,
• 23:47
  right?
• 23:47
  I can't,
• 23:47
  yeah,
• 23:47
  John Kennedy,
• 23:48
  uh,
• 23:48
  from Louisiana.
• 23:49
  He has,
• 23:50
  uh,
• 23:50
  you know,
• 23:50
  he's very quotable,
• 23:51
  and he said,
• 23:51
  I think if we're gonna have enough money,
• 23:53
  I think we're gonna have enough money.
• 23:54
  I think if we have a bad result in the midterms,
• 23:56
  I don't think we're gonna be able to blame it on money.
• 23:59
  Yeah,
• 24:00
  this is what's happening.
• 24:01
  This is the Death Star
• 24:02
  being unleashed on this election.
• 24:03
  Republicans are going to try
• 24:05
  to do everything they can to put themselves in a good position to win.
• 24:08
  And honestly,
• 24:09
  you don't have to have a miracle in a place like Texas.
• 24:11
  You don't have to have a miracle
• 24:12
  in a place like Nebraska or Kansas.
• 24:17
  That shouldn't be difficult.
• 24:19
  This should be the easy part of the list.
• 24:20
  Lift,
• 24:21
  if you're a Republican,
• 24:22
  you have to win those states.
• 24:23
  And the catastrophic outcome that is possible
• 24:26
  is now that window's opening a little bit.
• 24:28
  It's no longer a 1 or 2 or 3% chance.
• 24:30
  It might be a 10% or a 15% chance
• 24:32
  of pure catastrophe for.
• 24:34
  Republicans.
• 24:35
  Uh,
• 24:35
  that's where we are right now.
• 24:37
  Republicans are doing something about it,
• 24:39
  and what they're doing is throwing a bunch of
• 24:41
  money at these elections and trying to turn,
• 24:43
  you know,
• 24:43
  stem the tide a little bit.
• 24:44
  Can they do it?
• 24:45
  It's not gonna be easy,
• 24:46
  but they are at least doing what is required of
• 24:48
  them to win in some of these states like Texas.
• 24:51
  Uh,
• 24:51
  that's a very positive thing,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  that is going on if you happen to be a conservative,
• 24:56
  if you happen to be a liberal and you're like,
• 24:57
  oh,
• 24:57
  I want Democrats to win,
• 24:58
  well,
• 24:59
  I'd be a little scared.
• 25:00
  I'd be a little intimidated by this.
• 25:01
  I'd be a little,
• 25:02
  uh,
• 25:02
  a little worried
• 25:04
  that Republicans are going to push hard enough to
• 25:06
  get some of these candidates across the line,
• 25:08
  but I don't think that's happening in Georgia or North Carolina.
• 25:11
  And
• 25:12
  it comes down to the point where you gotta make
• 25:13
  tough decisions
• 25:14
  and,
• 25:15
  and say,
• 25:15
  where can these resources be applied best.
• 25:18
  And you better pick the right states because
• 25:20
  these are gonna be some really close races.
• 25:23
  I've got,
• 25:24
  um,
• 25:24
  a candidate of the day.
• 25:26
  We do this sort of thing called candidate countdown where
• 25:28
  every day I give you a race I kinda like.
• 25:30
  This one
• 25:30
  is actually like the newest
• 25:32
  race and only some of the,
• 25:33
  even the premium subscribers
• 25:35
  have seen some of this,
• 25:36
  but
• 25:36
  I'm coming to a conclusion in one,
• 25:38
  really key state and I wanna let you in on that coming up
• 25:41
  next.
• 26:02
  You know,
• 26:02
  I was just talking,
• 26:03
  I was just,
• 26:04
  you know,
• 26:04
  berating Republicans and you gotta make some tough choices.
• 26:07
  And then I realized that there were tough choices I needed to make too.
• 26:11
  And I realized this last week when we were doing a particular show
• 26:16
  when I was breaking down the Senate,
• 26:18
  uh,
• 26:18
  doing like the Senate board for the first time.
• 26:20
  We have a Senate board that we kind of do out there.
• 26:22
  I used to do chalkboards with it all the time.
• 26:24
  We would have,
• 26:24
  uh,
• 26:25
  you know,
• 26:25
  a little magnets and everything,
• 26:26
  and I would move the states around.
• 26:27
  Oh,
• 26:28
  this is a likely Republican state.
• 26:29
  This is a,
• 26:29
  a lean Democrat state,
• 26:31
  all that stuff.
• 26:32
  And I was doing it for the first time this year and it's like it's just
• 26:35
  a different way to organize the same information
• 26:36
  I've been thinking about for a while.
• 26:38
  And it,
• 26:39
  it's kind of a gut check,
• 26:40
  right?
• 26:41
  It put,
• 26:41
  it makes you lock these things into a position
• 26:44
  and make you
• 26:46
  make a decision,
• 26:47
  at least a little bit.
• 26:48
  I try to keep everything out of toss-up as much as I can for that reason.
• 26:51
  Um,
• 26:52
  we decided after I did it,
• 26:53
  I was like,
• 26:54
  you know,
• 26:54
  we should have this available for people to be able to kind of do on their own.
• 26:57
  So we put this up at predictableShow.com.
• 26:59
  At predictableShow.com,
• 26:59
  if you click on,
• 27:01
  uh,
• 27:01
  midterms,
• 27:01
  there's a tab at the top that says midterms.
• 27:03
  There's one that says the Senate board or something like that.
• 27:05
  This is what it looks like.
• 27:06
  And this gives you my Senate board,
• 27:07
  what I,
• 27:08
  what I,
• 27:08
  where I put these things.
• 27:09
  Solid
• 27:10
  Democrat,
• 27:10
  likely Democrat,
• 27:11
  lean Democrat,
• 27:12
  toss-up,
• 27:12
  lean Republican,
• 27:13
  likely Republican,
• 27:14
  solid Republican.
• 27:15
  It gives you a breakdown of the board.
• 27:16
  And this is where I actually landed,
• 27:18
  which was 49-49 with two toss-ups.
• 27:20
  Um,
• 27:21
  so I really think it's basically 50/50 race right now.
• 27:24
  By the end,
• 27:24
  I'll have an idea of who I think is,
• 27:26
  is going to win,
• 27:26
  but you know,
• 27:27
  we're still a couple of months early.
• 27:29
  And we put this together so you could do this too.
• 27:31
  Adam,
• 27:32
  if you just,
• 27:32
  you see a little couple of boxes there,
• 27:34
  it says Stu's board and your board.
• 27:35
  If you click on your board
• 27:37
  there and light that up,
• 27:38
  yeah,
• 27:38
  now you can see that.
• 27:39
  And
• 27:40
  what you can do is like,
• 27:41
  look at these races
• 27:43
  and click on one of them and,
• 27:44
  and,
• 27:44
  and move it to a different column,
• 27:46
  and it will,
• 27:46
  it will just calculate for you what your board looks like.
• 27:49
  I wanna come back to this in a second
• 27:51
  after we do our candidate countdown and,
• 27:52
  and what the reason why.
• 27:54
  Uh,
• 27:55
  this kind of struck
• 27:56
  me this candidate,
• 27:57
  and this is one of those things that honestly like
• 27:59
  we have a predictable show.com premium tier.
• 28:01
  I put all my,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:02
  picks up there.
• 28:03
  This one I added actually after
• 28:05
  the last update.
• 28:06
  So you're getting this really,
• 28:07
  really early.
• 28:08
  Only the people on the,
• 28:09
  uh,
• 28:09
  initial stream,
• 28:10
  we have a live stream of the taping of this broadcast every single
• 28:13
  day that we're in the studio at predictableShow.com for premium members.
• 28:16
  They're the only ones really seeing this early,
• 28:18
  and
• 28:18
  I started building this position kind of over the weekend.
• 28:21
  And it's what I,
• 28:22
  I feel pretty uncomfortable about,
• 28:23
  uh,
• 28:23
  but,
• 28:24
  uh,
• 28:25
  you know,
• 28:25
  I wanna give you different
• 28:26
  versions of,
• 28:28
  of,
• 28:28
  of what you could do in prediction markets.
• 28:30
  Some
• 28:31
  are very small profit percentages,
• 28:32
  maybe 9 or 10%
• 28:34
  that I think are almost a lock,
• 28:35
  right?
• 28:36
  Some are 20 to 30%,
• 28:38
  uh,
• 28:38
  where I'm like,
• 28:38
  wow,
• 28:39
  I'm really excited about this.
• 28:41
  Uh,
• 28:41
  and I think it's a really good position to take.
• 28:43
  Some of them are kind of high-risk,
• 28:45
  high reward type positions,
• 28:47
  and this one falls into that category,
• 28:49
  but I think the value is there right now
• 28:51
  for a candidate of the day,
• 28:52
  43 days until the midterms,
• 28:55
  uh,
• 28:55
  and our candidate countdown candidate of the day is
• 28:59
  Sherrod Brown
• 29:01
  in Ohio,
• 29:02
  the Democrat who is running there with,
• 29:05
  I don't know,
• 29:05
  what do you think of that hair?
• 29:06
  What do you guys think of that hair?
• 29:08
  I'm not,
• 29:08
  I feel uncomfortable.
• 29:09
  It makes me uncomfortable.
• 29:10
  Sherrod Brown's hair.
• 29:11
  I'm just saying that right now.
• 29:13
  He's a union guy.
• 29:14
  He's a hardworking union guy and honestly a guy who was senator
• 29:18
  in Ohio for a long time,
• 29:19
  and then lost
• 29:20
  in uh in uh 2024
• 29:23
  and is running again
• 29:25
  in a much more favorable climate.
• 29:29
  Ohio knows him.
• 29:30
  Ohio is used to him being their senator,
• 29:32
  and this is a real threat to Republicans in a state that I was very hesitant
• 29:37
  to pick a Democrat in because really this is not,
• 29:39
  this is not the Republican,
• 29:41
  this is not the state of Ohio from 2004.
• 29:43
  2004 was the closest election.
• 29:46
  Uh,
• 29:46
  in the entire country for the presidency,
• 29:49
  John Kerry lost by a few votes,
• 29:50
  and it was,
• 29:51
  it was his big complaint.
• 29:52
  He's even blamed this on all sorts of shenanigans that happened there.
• 29:55
  This is when the election used to get stolen by Republicans.
• 29:58
  Remember those days?
• 29:59
  Yes,
• 30:00
  back then,
• 30:01
  Republicans were stealing all the elections.
• 30:02
  Now Democrats are stealing all the elections,
• 30:04
  and every time that happens,
• 30:05
  the other side says,
• 30:06
  I can't believe they're possibly saying that election was stolen.
• 30:09
  Uh,
• 30:10
  but they all do it when they lose.
• 30:11
  That's,
• 30:11
  this is what they do.
• 30:13
  Here are the polls in this election right now,
• 30:14
  and you'll see a lot of blue in that column.
• 30:16
  This is from the New York Times,
• 30:18
  Brown + 8,
• 30:19
  Brown + 4,
• 30:20
  Brown + 5,
• 30:21
  Brown + 5,
• 30:22
  Brown + 3,
• 30:23
  Brown + 4.
• 30:24
  This
• 30:25
  is not
• 30:26
  a blowout
• 30:27
  election,
• 30:27
  and Husted can still win this election.
• 30:31
  However,
• 30:32
  I think where the markets are,
• 30:35
  are a little bit out of whack.
• 30:36
  Now,
• 30:36
  I will give you this,
• 30:37
  um,
• 30:38
  Brown is getting hit pretty hard with part of one of the beams from the death ray.
• 30:44
  Uh,
• 30:44
  he is a big anti-crypto guy.
• 30:46
  There's a lot of money in crypto lobbying.
• 30:50
  Right now,
• 30:50
  it seems like they're gonna blow the Clarity Act,
• 30:53
  uh,
• 30:53
  which is a huge part of the crypto.
• 30:55
  The reason why they spent all this money
• 30:56
  to get people elected,
• 30:58
  uh,
• 30:58
  was to try to get something like the Clarity Act through,
• 31:00
  which isn't universally positive
• 31:03
  for the crypto industry,
• 31:04
  but is a good step for them and that they have real rules
• 31:07
  around crypto.
• 31:08
  Um,
• 31:09
  that was just kind of voted down recently.
• 31:11
  I think they will take another shot at this.
• 31:13
  I do have a,
• 31:14
  a small position,
• 31:14
  I believe it is,
• 31:15
  on the Clarity Act passing this year because it is their last opportunity.
• 31:19
  They're gonna probably,
• 31:20
  Republicans are gonna lose the House
• 31:21
  and probably every opportunity goes away
• 31:24
  for this.
• 31:24
  So they,
• 31:24
  I think if they have any chance
• 31:26
  of getting this through,
• 31:27
  the best chance for it is somehow between November and January.
• 31:31
  That being said,
• 31:33
  The crypto industry is aiming to crush one of Democrats' top Senate candidates.
• 31:36
  They've spent $30 million or spending $30 million
• 31:39
  against Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
• 31:40
  So money is flowing in
• 31:42
  on the Republican side there.
• 31:43
  This is what that market looks like,
• 31:45
  however,
• 31:46
  um,
• 31:46
  and it is a market that has now,
• 31:48
  is now moved to the point where it's favoring Sherrod Brown.
• 31:51
  Um,
• 31:51
  it is actually,
• 31:52
  jeez,
• 31:52
  it's shooting way up since I
• 31:54
  just the past few days.
• 31:56
  Wow,
• 31:57
  Sherrod Brown is up to 62%.
• 31:59
  0 my goodness.
• 32:01
  I'd like to take credit for that movement,
• 32:03
  uh,
• 32:03
  but,
• 32:03
  uh,
• 32:04
  I don't think anyone knew
• 32:05
  that I'd taken that position yet.
• 32:06
  Anyway,
• 32:06
  zoom into the last like month or so
• 32:09
  on this market,
• 32:10
  Adam.
• 32:10
  You see a real shooting up.
• 32:11
  I,
• 32:12
  I,
• 32:12
  I thought this was a real,
• 32:13
  I really liked this around a 50/50 chance.
• 32:16
  It's getting up to in the 60s.
• 32:17
  We're getting closer
• 32:18
  to real value,
• 32:19
  I think.
• 32:21
  You know,
• 32:21
  I,
• 32:21
  in my head I thought Sherrod Brown was 65-70% to win
• 32:24
  this race when I really was looking and crunching the numbers.
• 32:28
  If it was just another Democrat,
• 32:29
  I think this would be much closer to fifty-fifty,
• 32:31
  but Sherrod Brown is,
• 32:32
  is relatively well liked in the state.
• 32:34
  His polling is relatively positive in the state,
• 32:37
  and we've gone through a long period here where there hasn't been any poll
• 32:40
  where Republicans are leading.
• 32:41
  Now look,
• 32:42
  Ohio is still a reddish state,
• 32:44
  and I think Houston has a real chance here.
• 32:46
  In fact,
• 32:48
  I,
• 32:49
  you know,
• 32:49
  a couple of months ago,
• 32:50
  this was a race I was looking for
• 32:52
  to put,
• 32:53
  uh,
• 32:53
  go the other way on,
• 32:54
  uh,
• 32:55
  taking,
• 32:55
  um,
• 32:56
  Houston.
• 32:56
  I,
• 32:56
  I thought this would be the type of state
• 32:58
  where,
• 32:59
  um,
• 33:00
  Housted would hold this for the Republicans.
• 33:03
  I'm now really concerned about that from the Republican perspective.
• 33:06
  And right now I think Sherrod Brown is the favorite
• 33:09
  in that race.
• 33:10
  Um,
• 33:11
  I,
• 33:12
  it was kind of the gut check moment I had when putting that Senate board together.
• 33:16
  Because I wound up putting it in the lean Democratic,
• 33:18
  go back to the Senate board if you could,
• 33:20
  I wound up putting this in the lean Democratic column.
• 33:23
  And I,
• 33:23
  I said that and I was like,
• 33:24
  well,
• 33:24
  wait a minute,
• 33:24
  if I think this is a lean Democrat state,
• 33:27
  what do I think this number is?
• 33:28
  And I kind of went back and forth
• 33:30
  and,
• 33:31
  uh,
• 33:32
  on,
• 33:32
  on my own sort of
• 33:34
  assumptions.
• 33:35
  And realized,
• 33:36
  uh,
• 33:36
  I don't know if this is a toss-up state.
• 33:38
  I think it is a lean Democrat.
• 33:39
  And if it's a lean Democrat,
• 33:41
  there's probably value at 52 and 53 cents
• 33:44
  for Sherrod Brown.
• 33:46
  Now it's 62,
• 33:47
  I think there's less value,
• 33:48
  and that's just happened in the last,
• 33:50
  I mean,
• 33:50
  gosh,
• 33:51
  24,
• 33:51
  48 hours.
• 33:52
  I mean,
• 33:52
  this is really,
• 33:52
  ever since I decided I wanted to do this segment,
• 33:54
  that's where this has gone.
• 33:56
  Now,
• 33:56
  I think there's value there,
• 33:58
  um,
• 33:58
  and I think it's one of those cause I wanna give you some that aren't just 91,
• 34:01
  92% type things.
• 34:03
  I wanna make sure you're getting some.
• 34:05
  Situations where there's value.
• 34:06
  I am not at all
• 34:08
  guaranteeing Sherrod Brown wins here.
• 34:10
  I don't think this is a sure thing,
• 34:12
  even in the perspective of,
• 34:13
  uh,
• 34:14
  you know,
• 34:14
  our First Amendment,
• 34:15
  which is a sure thing,
• 34:16
  always has air quotes.
• 34:17
  I,
• 34:17
  I,
• 34:17
  I don't,
• 34:18
  I don't necessarily think it's that type of election.
• 34:20
  I think there's still a close election.
• 34:22
  But I do think Sherrod Brown's the favorite.
• 34:23
  I do think
• 34:24
  that in this environment,
• 34:25
  he's,
• 34:26
  he is,
• 34:26
  uh,
• 34:27
  a likely winner,
• 34:28
  uh,
• 34:28
  here,
• 34:28
  or at least a lean winner,
• 34:30
  uh,
• 34:30
  here.
• 34:31
  Now,
• 34:31
  if you go,
• 34:31
  uh,
• 34:32
  just to show you how the Senate board works,
• 34:33
  uh,
• 34:33
  Adam,
• 34:33
  if you click on Ohio,
• 34:35
  you see that in the lean Democrat,
• 34:36
  um,
• 34:36
  it will bring up a little box and it says,
• 34:38
  what's your rating?
• 34:39
  Stu has it as lean D.
• 34:40
  What do you think?
• 34:41
  Make that a lean R instead.
• 34:43
  Um,
• 34:43
  you change that to lean R and,
• 34:44
  and then you can do update your board,
• 34:46
  and then go back up to the top and you'll see how,
• 34:48
  how is it updated for you.
• 34:49
  Now Republicans are at 50,
• 34:51
  Democrats at 48.
• 34:52
  You can shake,
• 34:52
  take this and move these columns around
• 34:55
  any way that you like.
• 34:56
  And we're gonna update this with even more features,
• 34:58
  but this is kind of just the starting board.
• 35:00
  Move these around,
• 35:02
  play with us a little bit,
• 35:03
  and you can kind of play with
• 35:04
  the control.
• 35:05
  You can play God,
• 35:06
  don't play God,
• 35:07
  but you can kind of play God
• 35:09
  with the Senate board to see where these things will go,
• 35:11
  if your opinion holds up.
• 35:13
  And
• 35:13
  look,
• 35:14
  you might say,
• 35:14
  hey,
• 35:15
  wait a minute,
• 35:15
  you're a big Sherrod Brown fan all the time,
• 35:17
  all of a sudden,
• 35:17
  no,
• 35:17
  I'm not.
• 35:19
  I gotta be honest with you.
• 35:20
  I'll always be honest with you on this stuff.
• 35:22
  Uh,
• 35:22
  I'm not,
• 35:22
  and I don't apologize for being a conservative.
• 35:24
  I don't want Sherrod Brown to win that race.
• 35:26
  I'm concerned about it in a big way,
• 35:28
  um,
• 35:28
  and I will say it's,
• 35:29
  it's our 10th Amendment to the Constitution and it's probably,
• 35:32
  uh,
• 35:33
  in a way one of the most important ones,
• 35:35
  which is
• 35:36
  kind of the same thing,
• 35:37
  by the way,
• 35:37
  in our actual Constitution,
• 35:39
  10th Amendment is pretty important,
• 35:40
  we basically ignore it.
• 35:41
  But it's,
• 35:41
  it's one that I say all the time.
• 35:43
  We,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:44
  we root for the world
• 35:45
  that we want
• 35:46
  and we invest in the world that we have.
• 35:48
  Sometimes the world that we have sucks,
• 35:50
  and it's not what you,
• 35:50
  it's not what you want,
• 35:51
  but if you can find a good investment.
• 35:53
  At least your world can improve a little bit
• 35:55
  as compared to what it would have been if you had lost money.
• 35:58
  Um,
• 35:58
  and this is another thing too where it's kind of nice,
• 36:00
  I guess if you,
• 36:00
  if you happen to be a person who's rooting for the Republican in that race,
• 36:03
  if you lose,
• 36:04
  you'll probably feel less bad about it,
• 36:06
  uh,
• 36:07
  if you lose some money on that race,
• 36:08
  you can hedge your life a little bit there,
• 36:10
  uh,
• 36:11
  by,
• 36:11
  uh,
• 36:12
  by going that direction.
• 36:13
  So that's what I have today.
• 36:14
  Again,
• 36:14
  you know,
• 36:14
  Sherrod Brown,
• 36:15
  if you think about this,
• 36:16
  55,
• 36:17
  uh,
• 36:17
  it's 60 cents now,
• 36:19
  but it's 60 cents
• 36:20
  or 40%,
• 36:21
  uh,
• 36:21
  40 cents.
• 36:22
  Uh,
• 36:22
  is the profit on that.
• 36:23
  So,
• 36:24
  just in case you're new to prediction markets,
• 36:25
  if you put 60 cents in
• 36:27
  on an investment,
• 36:28
  on a,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:29
  on a contract like that,
• 36:30
  uh,
• 36:30
  it will resolve if you are correct at $1.
• 36:32
  So you'll get 40 cents
• 36:34
  profit on each one of those contracts.
• 36:36
  So for every 60 cents you invest,
• 36:37
  you get a 40% profit.
• 36:38
  That's a 67% profit margin.
• 36:41
  I don't think you're gonna find that at a bank.
• 36:42
  Now,
• 36:42
  this is not basically banking.
• 36:44
  Uh,
• 36:45
  you know,
• 36:45
  sometimes I'll give you these that are like,
• 36:46
  09 and 10% profit margins.
• 36:48
  Uh,
• 36:49
  you know,
• 36:49
  hey,
• 36:49
  wow,
• 36:50
  it's almost like uh money in the bank.
• 36:51
  This is not almost like money in the bank.
• 36:53
  This is a close race.
• 36:53
  It could go either way,
• 36:55
  but it's one you should know about.
• 36:56
  If you're looking for a higher risk,
• 36:58
  higher,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  reward sort of platform,
• 37:02
  Sherrod Brown in Ohio may very well
• 37:04
  be for you.
• 37:05
  All my picks,
• 37:05
  over 300 of them
• 37:07
  are up at predictable show.
• 37:08
  Dot com for premium subscribers.
• 37:10
  The Predictable posse is there.
• 37:11
  They're talking about these picks on a day to day basis,
• 37:13
  great chat room,
• 37:14
  all sorts of great stuff
• 37:16
  available with that subscription.
• 37:17
  I'd encourage you,
• 37:18
  if you are trading in these markets,
• 37:20
  to go there and if you're looking to trade in these markets,
• 37:22
  try predictable101.com.
• 37:24
  This is gonna give you a crash course and everything that you need to know
• 37:28
  to get into prediction markets,
• 37:29
  to put your markets,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:31
  your money,
• 37:32
  uh,
• 37:32
  into these markets,
• 37:33
  to understand what you're doing with it and not get burned.
• 37:35
  Because look,
• 37:36
  If you're looking for somebody who's made tons of mistakes
• 37:39
  in prediction markets,
• 37:40
  you're looking at the right person right now,
• 37:41
  OK?
• 37:42
  If you're listening on audio,
• 37:43
  I don't know who you're looking at.
• 37:44
  You could be looking at anybody.
• 37:46
  But if you happen to be watching on video,
• 37:47
  you're looking at me
• 37:48
  and I'm the person who's made a lot of these mistakes.
• 37:50
  That's why we have the predictable constitution and all these
• 37:52
  other resources so that you don't make them as well.
• 37:55
  We're trying to get you into the right spot to be profitable and have a wonderful
• 37:59
  election season,
• 38:00
  no matter what the result is.
• 38:02
  Back in a second.
• 38:17
  Well,
• 38:17
  it's time for another edition of Here's One I Kinda like.
• 38:20
  And it's a,
• 38:20
  it's a segment that we started at the beginning of the show when I would say,
• 38:23
  I'm gonna identify a market that we're talking about.
• 38:26
  And uh,
• 38:26
  and it's just one that I kinda like.
• 38:27
  Not one I've deeply researched,
• 38:29
  not necessarily one I've got a hardcore take on,
• 38:32
  I'm going all in on,
• 38:33
  not at all.
• 38:34
  This is one I kinda like.
• 38:35
  And it's worked pretty well,
• 38:37
  actually.
• 38:37
  We've done well in these markets.
• 38:39
  I also will say,
• 38:40
  I,
• 38:40
  I don't know when is the last time I only gave you one of these,
• 38:42
  cause every time I do a,
• 38:43
  here's one I kinda like,
• 38:43
  I give you,
• 38:44
  here's 3 I kinda like,
• 38:45
  or here's 5 I kinda like.
• 38:46
  I've got a couple of them for you today.
• 38:48
  And a couple of them I've actually discussed with you a little bit
• 38:51
  before.
• 38:51
  Breaking news
• 38:52
  from Axios today.
• 38:54
  Might be good for my standing here.
• 38:56
  Many ex-aides to Kamala Harris are betting
• 38:59
  against the 2028 run.
• 39:01
  Betting,
• 39:02
  now that's,
• 39:02
  they're just,
• 39:02
  that's again,
• 39:03
  the way we use our language.
• 39:04
  We say betting when you're,
• 39:06
  they're,
• 39:06
  they're making a prediction or a risk.
• 39:08
  It's got nothing to do with whether it's an actual bet or wager,
• 39:10
  which would be for many of these people
• 39:12
  potentially illegal.
• 39:13
  Uh,
• 39:14
  don't,
• 39:14
  don't be an insider trader,
• 39:15
  boys and girls.
• 39:15
  That's bad.
• 39:16
  Be bad,
• 39:17
  that's bad.
• 39:17
  Um,
• 39:17
  here's what,
• 39:18
  now look,
• 39:19
  how strong is this evidence?
• 39:21
  The reason why I bring this one up is cause I did a segment with you last week
• 39:24
  where I,
• 39:25
  I played a piece of video from Gavin Newsom,
• 39:28
  where he was just asked while he was fishing with Jake Tapper,
• 39:31
  like,
• 39:31
  are you gonna run for president?
• 39:32
  He's like,
• 39:33
  ah,
• 39:33
  well,
• 39:33
  I wouldn't run if Kamala runs.
• 39:36
  Huh?
• 39:36
  What do you mean?
• 39:37
  Why wouldn't you run if Kamala runs?
• 39:38
  Uh,
• 39:38
  I wouldn't do that.
• 39:39
  I wouldn't do that to them.
• 39:40
  I wouldn't do that to you,
• 39:41
  which is a really weird phrasing.
• 39:42
  I don't know.
• 39:42
  The guy's bizarre.
• 39:43
  He's probably got a bunch of bodies,
• 39:45
  you know,
• 39:45
  carved up in his freezer.
• 39:47
  So I mean,
• 39:47
  I,
• 39:47
  I don't know how people like that act.
• 39:48
  But like,
• 39:49
  what I thought out of that was,
• 39:50
  he's gotta know Kamala's not.
• 39:52
  Running
• 39:53
  because he would not say that
• 39:55
  and put himself out there like,
• 39:56
  wait,
• 39:56
  now you're not gonna run because Kamala's running?
• 39:58
  Why create a news cycle where you have to say,
• 40:00
  well,
• 40:00
  I know I said that,
• 40:01
  but
• 40:02
  it doesn't make any sense.
• 40:03
  Um,
• 40:04
  and so either he's not gonna run or she's not gonna run,
• 40:06
  and I don't believe at all that he's not running.
• 40:08
  So,
• 40:09
  I have a position in that.
• 40:10
  Now,
• 40:10
  I've had a no position on Kamala for a while running,
• 40:13
  and my thought was,
• 40:15
  Is she aware of her surroundings?
• 40:17
  Like she's,
• 40:18
  she was a terrible candidate,
• 40:19
  it blew up in her face.
• 40:20
  She lost to Adolf Hitler to them.
• 40:22
  Why would they run her again?
• 40:23
  I don't know.
• 40:24
  I mean,
• 40:24
  it doesn't make any sense to me.
• 40:25
  Here's what,
• 40:26
  uh,
• 40:26
  what the aides are saying.
• 40:27
  Here's their,
• 40:28
  their argument.
• 40:28
  They asked eight
• 40:29
  close aides
• 40:31
  and advisors,
• 40:33
  um,
• 40:33
  including,
• 40:33
  uh,
• 40:34
  some who worked at a senior level to get their most up to-date read.
• 40:38
  Uh,
• 40:38
  here's what their points were.
• 40:39
  One,
• 40:39
  she's only doing the bare bare minimum
• 40:42
  to stay in the 2028 conversation.
• 40:44
  2,
• 40:45
  she's a rational actor.
• 40:46
  I've got some notes on that one.
• 40:47
  Not sure that's true,
• 40:48
  but that's what they believe.
• 40:49
  3,
• 40:50
  the money might not be there.
• 40:51
  Now,
• 40:51
  Harris has always been a great fundraiser,
• 40:54
  honestly,
• 40:54
  like that's not me just being,
• 40:55
  uh,
• 40:56
  sarcastic.
• 40:57
  She really has been.
• 40:58
  Um,
• 40:58
  and then 4,
• 40:59
  she isn't an egomaniac.
• 41:00
  Again,
• 41:01
  I've got some notes on that 15,
• 41:02
  some tea leaves suggest she's lukewarm on running,
• 41:05
  including
• 41:05
  she gave uh gave up control
• 41:07
  of her Kamala HQ social media account
• 41:10
  and bought an $8 million house in Malibu.
• 41:12
  Kinda not necessarily the most
• 41:14
  candidate-friendly thing to do.
• 41:15
  Anyway,
• 41:17
  the markets are starting to believe my terrible
• 41:19
  position that I took a while ago and was
• 41:21
  totally wrong on for a while and now seem to be more right on than ever.
• 41:24
  Here's the,
• 41:24
  uh,
• 41:25
  look at this.
• 41:26
  Bring me down to Kamala a little bit.
• 41:27
  Who will run?
• 41:28
  Uh,
• 41:28
  Kamala Harris,
• 41:29
  give me that graph.
• 41:30
  Look at this graph.
• 41:31
  Look at that.
• 41:32
  She was up to 80% not that long ago.
• 41:35
  Now we're down to 55%,
• 41:37
  and you might say,
• 41:37
  wow,
• 41:37
  you must have made a lot of money on that.
• 41:39
  No,
• 41:39
  it's about where I bought it at.
• 41:41
  But that's a total side story.
• 41:44
  I bought it at 55,
• 41:45
  took the losses all the way up to 80,
• 41:47
  and then a collapse over the past couple of weeks with that Newsome video,
• 41:49
  which I don't think anyone else called out,
• 41:50
  but then this Axios clip,
• 41:52
  uh,
• 41:52
  is,
• 41:52
  is making the rounds.
• 41:53
  So
• 41:54
  that one's looking pretty good.
• 41:55
  I don't know if you're interested in getting in on that one.
• 41:58
  Another one that I told you I kind of liked before,
• 42:00
  the Toronto Blue Jays making the playoffs.
• 42:02
  Doesn't feel that way.
• 42:03
  It doesn't feel that way,
• 42:04
  boys and girls.
• 42:05
  Uh,
• 42:05
  Blue Jays needing a miracle.
• 42:07
  Nearing elimination,
• 42:08
  Blue Blue Jays require the sort of miracle that has been elusive.
• 42:11
  As you know,
• 42:12
  I'm America's only,
• 42:13
  uh,
• 42:14
  except for my other family members,
• 42:15
  Toronto Blue Jays fan here in America.
• 42:17
  Uh,
• 42:18
  they are now,
• 42:18
  If they win all six of their remaining games,
• 42:20
  they are down to a 57% chance.
• 42:22
  So even if they sweep all the games,
• 42:24
  they still barely have a 50% chance
• 42:26
  of that.
• 42:27
  How's that market looking for me?
• 42:28
  I know I'm way,
• 42:29
  way up on this one.
• 42:30
  Get me down to Toronto here.
• 42:31
  Uh,
• 42:31
  who will qualify for the Major League Baseball playoffs.
• 42:34
  I told you this is just not happening this year.
• 42:36
  I,
• 42:36
  I want to believe,
• 42:37
  I hope to believe.
• 42:38
  Show me the graph if you can there,
• 42:39
  Adam.
• 42:40
  Uh,
• 42:41
  let's see.
• 42:41
  Oh,
• 42:41
  yeah,
• 42:42
  look at that.
• 42:42
  Oh,
• 42:42
  yeah,
• 42:43
  we're down,
• 42:43
  down,
• 42:43
  down to,
• 42:45
  what is it,
• 42:45
  5%.
• 42:47
  Chance.
• 42:47
  They,
• 42:48
  they swung back into it for a while,
• 42:50
  but
• 42:50
  I'm gonna make a good amount of money on my sadness
• 42:53
  on that particular one.
• 42:54
  OK.
• 42:55
  Um,
• 42:55
  I have a couple more here,
• 42:56
  but I don't have time because we're running late.
• 42:57
  I'll take a break.
• 42:58
  We'll bring them to you tomorrow.
• 42:59
  There's gonna be plenty for you tomorrow.
• 43:01
  Check that out,
• 43:01
  uh,
• 43:01
  predictableShow.com.
• 43:02
  We always list all my positions up there.
• 43:04
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 43:05
  so you get to see all these things and make fun of me.
• 43:07
  Say,
• 43:07
  hey,
• 43:08
  you're totally wrong on Kamala Harris,
• 43:09
  and then
• 43:10
  I'll be fully vindicated
• 43:11
  at some point in the near future,
• 43:13
  I'm
• 43:13
  sure.
• 43:14
  Back in a second.
• 43:24
  We are everywhere you can be,
• 43:25
  I think,
• 43:25
  at this point.
• 43:26
  Uh,
• 43:26
  join us on audio podcast,
• 43:28
  uh,
• 43:28
  if you happen to be an audio-only listener,
• 43:30
  we love you so much there.
• 43:32
  We also have,
• 43:33
  uh,
• 43:34
  some great
• 43:35
  stuff on,
• 43:36
  uh,
• 43:36
  gosh,
• 43:36
  we're on DirecTV,
• 43:37
  we're on,
• 43:38
  uh,
• 43:38
  AT&T Uverse,
• 43:39
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• 43:40
  we're on Pluto TV.
• 43:41
  We're on the first.
• 43:43
  TV.
• 43:43
  We are on Blaze TV.
• 43:45
  We're kinda almost everywhere.
• 43:46
  The only prediction market show that's really out there
• 43:48
  doing this on a day to day basis.
• 43:49
  And you know,
• 43:50
  we,
• 43:50
  we appreciate you,
• 43:51
  uh,
• 43:51
  joining us.
• 43:52
  One of the reasons are we,
• 43:53
  we were very,
• 43:53
  very,
• 43:53
  we've been very,
• 43:54
  very profitable
• 43:55
  and people continue to keep coming back.
• 43:57
  So
• 43:57
  the show is growing really,
• 43:58
  really fast.
• 43:59
  PredictableShow.com premium subscribers growing really,
• 44:01
  really fast.
• 44:02
  It means a lot to us.
• 44:03
  So thank you so much for joining us.
• 44:04
  The whole team thanks you for uh getting on board.
• 44:06
  We've got 6 weeks left
• 44:08
  for the selection.
• 44:09
  Uh,
• 44:09
  so there's a massive profit opportunity,
• 44:11
  we're gonna take advantage of it.
• 44:13
  At least I'm gonna try really,
• 44:14
  really hard,
• 44:14
  and I think we're gonna do well.
• 44:15
  So join us at predictableShow.com.
• 44:18
  We've got more for you tomorrow.