Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Dominating NFL Week 7

Transcript

Dominating NFL Week 7 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Meulman, or as I am officially renaming
0:17
Speaker 1: the podcast this week the greatest betting podcast of all
0:23
Speaker 1: time because we for the second week this season, the
0:29
Speaker 1: second week out of six, we've gone five and oh,
0:33
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. As I said, I will be
0:37
Speaker 1: joined by Professional Better, Simon Hunter, my partner in brilliance.
0:43
Speaker 1: Simon say hello, take about Hey guys, Hey guys, thanks
0:48
Speaker 1: for being so humble. Chad, someone's gotta do it. I
0:52
Speaker 1: know your ego is massive, and I've got to be
0:55
Speaker 1: here to regulate, modulate and do the things that's sort
0:58
Speaker 1: of appropriate. Host do a reminder for everybody, I'm going
1:03
Speaker 1: to get into sort of Simon's bragging in a second. Uh,
1:07
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, Professional Better is joining the pod every week
1:11
Speaker 1: and together we have entered the Draft Kings Pro Football
1:13
Speaker 1: pick Up National Championship. We will decide together which pete
1:17
Speaker 1: which picks five picks he should put in every single week. Frankly,
1:21
Speaker 1: right now we are god damn genius. Is but a
1:28
Speaker 1: little extra prize for the fans. You're gonna love this, Simon.
1:31
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, producer, You haven't heard this either. I had
1:33
Speaker 1: this idea the other day and I decided to just
1:35
Speaker 1: to do it before we get to the recap. We
1:38
Speaker 1: are trying something new with the phrase that pay something
1:42
Speaker 1: I thought of a very brilliant idea, maybe inspired by
1:46
Speaker 1: being five. And now I can't quite tell you, but
1:49
Speaker 1: anyone who listens to the podcast knows that all season
1:53
Speaker 1: long we've been doing the phrase to pays. Contest. You
1:55
Speaker 1: go put a review of the podcast in iTunes, and
1:58
Speaker 1: if Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire and I choose it, you
2:01
Speaker 1: will win a free action network couldy we are raised
2:04
Speaker 1: in the stakes because Simon and I are doing so
2:08
Speaker 1: well and we just went five and oh, I don't
2:12
Speaker 1: think it's enough to give away hoodies anymore. I don't
2:15
Speaker 1: think it's enough to sort of bask in the glory
2:18
Speaker 1: of our brilliance and keep winning these contests week after
2:22
Speaker 1: week after week and not share it with our loyal
2:25
Speaker 1: listeners who continued to provide excellent free you back. So
2:29
Speaker 1: here's what I decided that Mitchell, are you ready? You
2:30
Speaker 1: have no idea this is coming. You do not know
2:32
Speaker 1: this is coming. It sounds like you've gone mad. The
2:35
Speaker 1: power from now through the end of the season, we're
2:40
Speaker 1: just giving away cash. One lucky winner will win one
2:47
Speaker 1: hundred dollars for every game we win each week. What
2:54
Speaker 1: do you think of that? Wow, that's that's that's a
2:59
Speaker 1: that's worth a little. It more than one hooded sweatshirt
3:02
Speaker 1: chat if we win five games. If we win five games,
3:05
Speaker 1: you get five. If we win three games, you get
3:08
Speaker 1: three hundred dollars. You guys get it. Uh. The thing
3:12
Speaker 1: is this prize could evolve, It could become even bigger.
3:18
Speaker 1: Like that's that's the beauty of this. To be eligible
3:21
Speaker 1: go review the podcast. Using the phrase, Simon says, we
3:26
Speaker 1: worked it out. If we like it and randomly choose it,
3:30
Speaker 1: you will win the money starting this week. Um, it's
3:34
Speaker 1: kind of a bummer for last week's winner, who did
3:35
Speaker 1: a really nice job, and he's gonna win a hoodie
3:38
Speaker 1: and we will announce that at the end of the show.
3:40
Speaker 1: In case you are not aware, Simon and I went
3:44
Speaker 1: five an hour in the d in the DraftKings Pro
3:46
Speaker 1: Football pick up contest this past week. Simon, last week
3:50
Speaker 1: on the pod, we were vulnerable. We admitted Twitter users
3:54
Speaker 1: were in our head. We admitted that you and I
3:56
Speaker 1: were communicating. What change? Man? What changed? Cheah? I'm still
4:03
Speaker 1: trying to recover here from you giving away a hundred
4:05
Speaker 1: dollars per win every week. Look at you man big
4:08
Speaker 1: time over here. I believe I believe in us. I
4:11
Speaker 1: believe in us too, buddy. Um yeah, man. Uh we
4:16
Speaker 1: we talked a little Saturday. I mean, you're running a company,
4:18
Speaker 1: so I like, I feel weird even bothering you in
4:20
Speaker 1: the first place, So I like, randomly send you text
4:22
Speaker 1: and if you don't hit me back right away, I'm
4:24
Speaker 1: just like, all right, Chad's doing this thing with this
4:26
Speaker 1: kid or running. Let me pull back the current a
4:28
Speaker 1: little bit. Let me pull back the current a little bit, please,
4:30
Speaker 1: do I think it's fair to say, and Matt Mitchell
4:33
Speaker 1: can confirm this. I do so little here by that.
4:38
Speaker 1: You know, there's so many good quality, talented people at
4:42
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I'll view my job as a manager
4:45
Speaker 1: to hire well, get out of the way, and uh,
4:49
Speaker 1: you know, make sure I'm mixing a cocktail by five
4:51
Speaker 1: o'clock so you're never bothering me. Alright, perfect? So anyway,
4:55
Speaker 1: uh yeah, basically we had our like the games we like.
4:59
Speaker 1: Do you sent me three games? I think all I
5:02
Speaker 1: think they all hit except Houston, which was like the
5:05
Speaker 1: brutal beat of the week. And in between switch Yeah,
5:11
Speaker 1: we were in between switching out the Patriots UM and
5:14
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. And my whole thinking was, I, I just
5:18
Speaker 1: can't these weeks. Can't keep passing, We can't keep not
5:20
Speaker 1: picking against the Dolphins. I didn't care that we had
5:22
Speaker 1: the survivor pool, like I wouldn't recommend doing that, putting
5:25
Speaker 1: so many eggs in one basket. But like we said
5:29
Speaker 1: um last week, like I'll never come on here and
5:31
Speaker 1: say a person shouldn't be playing in the NFL unless
5:33
Speaker 1: it's Joe Flacco. So if I say that about a player,
5:37
Speaker 1: that obviously it sums up how I feel. I really
5:39
Speaker 1: don't care what the spread is. If it's Joe Flacco,
5:42
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet against it. And man, was that an
5:46
Speaker 1: easy day. The only real sweat was the Bears for us.
5:48
Speaker 1: But like, even with the defense, that's what I was
5:50
Speaker 1: believing the whole time. I didn't care when Caroline had
5:52
Speaker 1: the ball. I just had faith in the defense to
5:54
Speaker 1: get stops and hold them for field goals. So as
5:57
Speaker 1: far as our seasons going, that was definitely the easiest
5:59
Speaker 1: We got the other year. I mean just really no sweat.
6:03
Speaker 1: There was no sweat at all. I mean the Bears
6:05
Speaker 1: was a little sweat, um, the Lions wasn't a sweat
6:08
Speaker 1: in the least, the Steelers wasn't a sweat in the least.
6:13
Speaker 1: The Dolphins not even a conversation. I kept trying to
6:17
Speaker 1: do the gambler's math, like, all right, what happens here?
6:20
Speaker 1: What happens here? Like how can this get screwed up?
6:23
Speaker 1: And it just it couldn't. And then the box like
6:27
Speaker 1: it looked ugly in the beginning, Aaron Rodgers, you know,
6:29
Speaker 1: doing his Dingleberry thing and feeling like, um, we were
6:34
Speaker 1: going to be screwed there. And then on a dime,
6:38
Speaker 1: it changed. And it changed, by the way, for all
6:41
Speaker 1: the things that for all the reasons that we said
6:43
Speaker 1: it would change, Aaron Rodgers was actually playing a real defense, right,
6:48
Speaker 1: and that we just talked about no no teams going
6:51
Speaker 1: undefeat and no teams going on defeat against the spread.
6:53
Speaker 1: It's just all gamblers know this, and that was an
6:56
Speaker 1: easy spot. We talked all the time about teams heading
6:58
Speaker 1: down to Florida, especially Old Weather team coming down there.
7:01
Speaker 1: People think that's just a made up thing. It's a
7:03
Speaker 1: real thing when these teams traveled down the floor and
7:05
Speaker 1: they're not used to be in the human heat. So that, uh,
7:10
Speaker 1: that interception was nice, but it was another day where
7:13
Speaker 1: these teams were losing and they keep coming back, Like
7:15
Speaker 1: I missed on the Colts with the Bengals because I
7:18
Speaker 1: had the Colts and a couple of teasers and Camp
7:21
Speaker 1: comes Sunday. I might have put like just a little
7:24
Speaker 1: bit on the Bengals money line. So when that game
7:27
Speaker 1: picked off, I was feeling pretty good. I was like, man,
7:29
Speaker 1: this this cold steam. There they are who we thought
7:31
Speaker 1: they were. And I was killing myself for not taking
7:34
Speaker 1: that live money line because we keep seeing this happened
7:37
Speaker 1: with these teams at home. They can come back on
7:39
Speaker 1: these on these money lines. So sure enough that Brady
7:43
Speaker 1: got down ten um. What happened? I think they just
7:46
Speaker 1: pointed back to Rogers and I took the live money line,
7:49
Speaker 1: which wasn't even crazy big. It was like plus four
7:51
Speaker 1: hundred or plus three hundred um. But the whole thing
7:55
Speaker 1: was exactly what we talked about, where it was like
7:58
Speaker 1: Rogers playing a real defense. Here, He's gonna slip up,
8:01
Speaker 1: and sure enough, back to back interception shifted that whole game.
8:04
Speaker 1: So that was one of those weeks, buddy, where we
8:07
Speaker 1: couldn't miss. So hopefully that we keep it rolling here
8:09
Speaker 1: another another another week or the tough Slady games. Well, look,
8:13
Speaker 1: obviously we cannot expect to win like go five and
8:16
Speaker 1: now everything. Oh we can't. Oh we can't chat the
8:18
Speaker 1: fans expect it. I have friends out here who have
8:22
Speaker 1: been putting a hundred dollars on each week, parlaying our
8:24
Speaker 1: five picks, and I told him how stupid it was.
8:27
Speaker 1: They're up five k now one, Yeah, they hit week one.
8:31
Speaker 1: It was like a hundred to win two thousand, two thousand,
8:34
Speaker 1: five hundred sixty And then they just said it this
8:36
Speaker 1: past week. So he's only lost three or four weeks
8:40
Speaker 1: out of doing it the whole season. I hate the
8:42
Speaker 1: kid because he's just like laughing about it because he
8:44
Speaker 1: keeps doing it, keeps how much did you put on
8:47
Speaker 1: the Bucks live line at plus four hundred? Just like
8:50
Speaker 1: if I hit these live numbers, I just do it
8:52
Speaker 1: because I already have so much into it, Like I
8:54
Speaker 1: don't want to be a chaser, but if there's value
8:56
Speaker 1: there and I believe in the number, I usually just
8:59
Speaker 1: head a g like it depends on the book. But um,
9:03
Speaker 1: like I joked on Twitter, like I was down Sunday
9:05
Speaker 1: morning before like the NFL rush. This Sunday coming up
9:08
Speaker 1: because the public just got smacked around. I can go
9:10
Speaker 1: out new it's gonna be empty. It's a good weekend
9:13
Speaker 1: as a pro. Good on the sports book because it's
9:14
Speaker 1: gonna be empty before kickoff. Yeah, that was a great
9:18
Speaker 1: video or picture. I ken't forget which what what what
9:20
Speaker 1: it was? You were at some book and it was
9:22
Speaker 1: like just Sunday morning, the rush, and like, look, we
9:26
Speaker 1: try to capture that. We have a show Action Network
9:28
Speaker 1: Live that we do on Sunday mornings at eleven o'clock
9:31
Speaker 1: and it's really a news and information show and it
9:34
Speaker 1: goes all around like these are the big bets and
9:37
Speaker 1: this is the information that you're looking for right now
9:39
Speaker 1: based on the trends we're seeing digitally on our website
9:43
Speaker 1: in our app. And then we'll have Chris Raybon and
9:45
Speaker 1: Stocky and this week we had stuck you. Normally we
9:47
Speaker 1: have Sean Corner and Matthew Friedman who will like give me,
9:51
Speaker 1: try to convince me of the bets that I should take,
9:53
Speaker 1: and that window we do it at eleven o'clock because
9:56
Speaker 1: that window from eleven to one is the most like
10:00
Speaker 1: we do it on an Action Network h Q by
10:01
Speaker 1: the way, or you can get in the app. It's
10:03
Speaker 1: a free app downloaded. You can see this see the
10:06
Speaker 1: show at the top of the feed in the app.
10:08
Speaker 1: Sunday mornings eleven am. Check it out Action Network Live
10:12
Speaker 1: using newfore you can use. It's a great window. It's
10:15
Speaker 1: a great window because, uh, it's so exciting, lad is
10:19
Speaker 1: when all the action happens, and like it is a
10:22
Speaker 1: thrilling experience. Yeah, it's fun. I'm actually I'm the weirdo.
10:26
Speaker 1: I leave like the sports bug as soon as the
10:28
Speaker 1: public starts coming in. I get the hell out of
10:30
Speaker 1: there because it's just like old guys talking like, uh,
10:33
Speaker 1: the lock of the week, the Patriots minus nine and
10:36
Speaker 1: a half, Like these guys are screaming. I'm just like,
10:38
Speaker 1: all right, time to hit the blackjack table or just
10:40
Speaker 1: drive home. But yeah, it's it's definitely watching the lines move.
10:44
Speaker 1: It's it's there's nothing better than the one, especially where
10:47
Speaker 1: the reason I wanted to get off the Patriots so
10:49
Speaker 1: bad was all of a sudden, all this money was
10:51
Speaker 1: coming on Denver like there's other sharp groups out there,
10:53
Speaker 1: like that's not a myth, Like these dudes make a
10:55
Speaker 1: living off this. And when I saw all the money
10:58
Speaker 1: coming in on Denver, I go, oh, ship, these guys
10:59
Speaker 1: got to read we got we gotta get off the
11:01
Speaker 1: Patriots ACEEP. So it's it's fun watching the lines move
11:05
Speaker 1: and try to see where the money's going, because it's
11:07
Speaker 1: gonna lead you astray sometimes. Like people were texting me
11:10
Speaker 1: getting scared of the Tampa Bay pick because it went
11:12
Speaker 1: up to plus three right before kickoff. I said, take
11:14
Speaker 1: it again, Like I took the Eagles eight, I took
11:16
Speaker 1: the Eagles nine. It took the Eagles ten. Yeah, it
11:18
Speaker 1: could have looked like an idiot. They got blown out.
11:20
Speaker 1: When you're playing the number, it's long term. You're just
11:23
Speaker 1: getting the best of the value each week. So if
11:24
Speaker 1: you're already in on a low number, why not just
11:27
Speaker 1: keep riding, trust your instincts and keep keep taking the
11:29
Speaker 1: better number. Well, we're gonna expruss our instincts and we're
11:32
Speaker 1: gonna move on to these games. Let's talk about the
11:34
Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Speaking of the Eagles, the Eagles right
11:38
Speaker 1: now are what four point favorites. Majority of the money,
11:42
Speaker 1: the majority of the bets coming in the Eagles. The
11:46
Speaker 1: Eagles to me, two weeks in a row now played
11:51
Speaker 1: the Steelers hard with no real you know there there.
11:56
Speaker 1: They are banged up, they are not playing a full strength,
11:58
Speaker 1: played the Ravens really really hard. And the Ravens are
12:01
Speaker 1: a team they should have blown the Eagles out. And
12:04
Speaker 1: the Ravens are a team that generally doesn't play down
12:07
Speaker 1: to their competition. So what I saw from the Eagles
12:09
Speaker 1: this week, especially like when it seemed like they were
12:12
Speaker 1: deactivating players and sort of giving in just getting ready
12:14
Speaker 1: to play to win the division on Thursday night, um
12:18
Speaker 1: really really impressive. Yeah. And if you haven't hooked hopped
12:23
Speaker 1: on Twitter in the last twenty four hours, did you
12:25
Speaker 1: know that the NFC East is five and eighteen and one.
12:29
Speaker 1: People keep posting how bad DNC East says. We all
12:31
Speaker 1: watch football, we know Jesus Man as an Eagles here,
12:35
Speaker 1: and I can't take it. It's like, dude, I know
12:37
Speaker 1: I'm in the worst division of football. Please stop posting
12:40
Speaker 1: that it's five and eighteen and one. We get it.
12:42
Speaker 1: They suck. Um. Yeah, I don't know. It's one of
12:46
Speaker 1: those where it's like I wanted fade the Giants because
12:50
Speaker 1: they just won. But like, did they really win that game?
12:53
Speaker 1: They kind of got out played by Washington. They luckily
12:56
Speaker 1: got a striped sack and they went for two at
12:58
Speaker 1: the end there for some reason, I don't get why
13:00
Speaker 1: Washington didn't trust their defense to get a stop and
13:02
Speaker 1: go to overtime and then maybe get the ball back
13:05
Speaker 1: and all you need is a field goal to win it.
13:06
Speaker 1: So I don't know, like the numbers, this should be three.
13:12
Speaker 1: Like the Egos aren't better right now than the Giants.
13:15
Speaker 1: They just lost Earths. They just lost Miles Sanders. Those
13:18
Speaker 1: are two two of their best weapons. Every Like, when
13:21
Speaker 1: I watch game from people really hate, Like I'm an
13:23
Speaker 1: Egos fan. I hate Earths right now. He's horrible. When
13:26
Speaker 1: you watch the film, he's bracketed. He oh, he's always
13:29
Speaker 1: double covered. He's the only the only guy in our
13:32
Speaker 1: entire offense that gets double coverage. So we lost Earths
13:36
Speaker 1: right now. We already we just lost another backup offensive lineman.
13:39
Speaker 1: So we have Kellyslee the one are one center is
13:42
Speaker 1: our starter from the season. Like, this is the worst
13:47
Speaker 1: offensive line I've ever had as an Egos fan. This
13:49
Speaker 1: is like insanity so I'm gonna fade the public on
13:53
Speaker 1: a Thursday night. I'm gonna take the points for the Giants,
13:55
Speaker 1: and I don't feel great about it, but I just
13:58
Speaker 1: think this is situation wal you're getting a good umber
14:00
Speaker 1: with four. So I'm on the Giants. We are not
14:04
Speaker 1: putting this game in the contest, like psychologically, we cannot
14:07
Speaker 1: go into the weekend potentially oh and one because we
14:12
Speaker 1: lost the Giants like find what find creative ways to
14:17
Speaker 1: Like I was because I loved the Giants this weekend.
14:20
Speaker 1: I think they were like a two and a half
14:21
Speaker 1: and and we had projections with them as four and
14:24
Speaker 1: a half point favorites, and I loved him. And I'm like,
14:26
Speaker 1: I'm just done betting the Giants, like they find too
14:28
Speaker 1: many creative ways to not cover Daniel Jones just isn't good.
14:33
Speaker 1: So yeah, rolling the dice here by backing them, but right,
14:36
Speaker 1: we don't We're not putting this up Packers Texans, All right,
14:39
Speaker 1: hold on one step, let's move on to uh let's
14:43
Speaker 1: move on to the Sunday games, the one PM games immediately.
14:48
Speaker 1: This first game on the board, the Packers visiting the Texans,
14:51
Speaker 1: the Texans three and a half point UM underdogs at
14:56
Speaker 1: home a win in Romeo Cornell first game, a disgusting, disgusting,
15:04
Speaker 1: inevitable loss and loss against the spread the second they
15:09
Speaker 1: didn't convert that two point conversion to go up eight
15:12
Speaker 1: with you know a minute left, every Texans better knew
15:16
Speaker 1: it was over. I texted you immediately, which is like,
15:18
Speaker 1: this is disgusting. Um, this is a game that I
15:22
Speaker 1: think a lot of wise guys are gonna peg because
15:25
Speaker 1: I feel like they're going to see an advantage in
15:27
Speaker 1: the Texans at three and a half. If you're getting
15:29
Speaker 1: that hook, what do you think? Yeah? Really Yeah, Like
15:36
Speaker 1: I told you I was cool with taking like the
15:39
Speaker 1: first game, but I told you I was gonna fade
15:41
Speaker 1: him the rest of the year. Like I was one
15:42
Speaker 1: of those assholes on the Titan side that won that
15:45
Speaker 1: bet that shouldn't have won it. But it's just like
15:48
Speaker 1: this guy, man, I don't want to back them, and
15:53
Speaker 1: now this is a sharp number, like a home dog.
15:56
Speaker 1: Um after a bad loss like that. But the way
15:59
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the pas Reckers is they're good against
16:01
Speaker 1: these not that good teams, and I don't they don't
16:03
Speaker 1: have the defense to stop Rogers on Texas. So yeah,
16:06
Speaker 1: this could be a shootout, and that's why you might
16:08
Speaker 1: be getting a good number with that three. But I
16:11
Speaker 1: had this up four and a half, so I think
16:12
Speaker 1: I'm getting good number on green Bay right now. So
16:14
Speaker 1: I'll be on the green Bay side. But I can't
16:16
Speaker 1: fallow people for taking Houston here. Wow, this makes me.
16:23
Speaker 1: My instinct would be automatically about the Texas. And as
16:26
Speaker 1: you know, I'm trying to grow, I'm trying to evolve.
16:29
Speaker 1: I'm trying to use the conversations we have to make
16:31
Speaker 1: myself another person. I'm not always gonna be right, buddy.
16:35
Speaker 1: I know you're not gonna be right, but you're bringing
16:36
Speaker 1: a different sensibility and perspective to me that I would
16:41
Speaker 1: have looked at this. It's almost like last week in
16:43
Speaker 1: the Lions game. I wasn't even thinking about the Lions.
16:46
Speaker 1: Like in a million years, I wouldn't look at the
16:47
Speaker 1: Lions as road favorites and be comfortable betting it. But
16:51
Speaker 1: we had a long conversation about it. You felt really
16:53
Speaker 1: strongly about it. Chris Raybon talked about it in the
16:56
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast was Stucky, and he wrote about it
16:59
Speaker 1: an Action networked out plug plod. Thanks yeah, and like
17:05
Speaker 1: it all made sense. And so a game that I
17:06
Speaker 1: wouldn't have even considered was now a game that was
17:09
Speaker 1: sort of in my top five, right, and and we
17:11
Speaker 1: put it in the contest. I bet it separately. So no,
17:14
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I gotta think about this. Yeah,
17:17
Speaker 1: I I'm trying to break you off these old school
17:21
Speaker 1: things where people would be like, oh, this is the
17:22
Speaker 1: sharp play of the week, Like, oh, the Jets last week,
17:25
Speaker 1: that was a sharp play of the week. It's like,
17:27
Speaker 1: who are these sharps, like the sharp SI I know,
17:30
Speaker 1: like the dudes who really do better on football, they're
17:33
Speaker 1: they're not taking that, Like maybe they'll take the Jets
17:36
Speaker 1: this week if it's Sam Donald, that's a good number
17:38
Speaker 1: of divisional game. But like with Flacco, it's just they
17:42
Speaker 1: throw the sharp tag out there, like it's because they
17:46
Speaker 1: say the money or they see a bad team that
17:48
Speaker 1: that people are betting on it. It's just like, no,
17:50
Speaker 1: that's just people back in the Jets because they didn't
17:52
Speaker 1: believe in Miami. It wasn't sharp money coming on them.
17:54
Speaker 1: But I don't know this this week, I definitely get
17:57
Speaker 1: what you mean, like this this Green Bay will and
18:00
Speaker 1: I might be stepping like I stepped in it last
18:02
Speaker 1: week with the Rams going against the forty Niners, which
18:04
Speaker 1: was just a classic spot where the fourty Niners the
18:07
Speaker 1: line and moved seven points. You always take the team
18:10
Speaker 1: that the line moved against at home, and I didn't
18:13
Speaker 1: because I just trust what I was watching. So I'm
18:16
Speaker 1: with you, man. I could be wrong here in Houston,
18:17
Speaker 1: but I do like the Packers in the situation against
18:20
Speaker 1: a Texas defense that cannot stop anybody, and they haven't
18:23
Speaker 1: played well against good teams this year. For the record,
18:26
Speaker 1: I didn't listen to you on the Rams, and I
18:27
Speaker 1: went all in on the on the Niners. Not only
18:29
Speaker 1: did I go all in on the Niners, I bet
18:32
Speaker 1: him on the money line. So that was a pretty
18:34
Speaker 1: good playing Mollman. Nice job. Well, thanks, Simon. Chad Millman
18:38
Speaker 1: got something right, all right. So let's skip the Packers
18:41
Speaker 1: in Texas Cowboys the Washington football team. I don't know
18:45
Speaker 1: if there's that much to say, Like, I would not
18:46
Speaker 1: put this as a top five game unless you're looking
18:48
Speaker 1: at this and you're saying, uh, WHOA, No, I got
18:51
Speaker 1: this rated at like Washington minus three, and if you've
18:57
Speaker 1: got money to burn, I like I took Washington and
19:01
Speaker 1: the Giants to win the division last week. I think
19:03
Speaker 1: it was like I think the Giants were, Um, they
19:09
Speaker 1: might have been plus like four thousand or maybe plus
19:12
Speaker 1: three thousand in Washington was plus a thousand five dred maybe, UM,
19:16
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's tough. It's tough here where. I
19:19
Speaker 1: really like the Washington football team because I think that
19:22
Speaker 1: with Kyle Allen, they're not as bad as all these
19:24
Speaker 1: everyone thinks because their defensive front so good and the
19:29
Speaker 1: Cowboys their biggest weakness right now on offenses their offensive line.
19:32
Speaker 1: So people out there betting I get the bounce back
19:36
Speaker 1: spot for the Cowboys like they they will be much
19:39
Speaker 1: better than they were in that primetime game where they
19:41
Speaker 1: just couldn't stop turning the ball over and they'll have
19:44
Speaker 1: some regression on that part. But I don't know then,
19:48
Speaker 1: Like I'm the way I'm looking at this number, it
19:50
Speaker 1: just feels like I should just take the money line
19:53
Speaker 1: with Washington just trusted that d linees is gonna get
19:55
Speaker 1: way more stops and turnovers and they're the better team
19:58
Speaker 1: in the Cowboys are right now. So I'm on the
20:00
Speaker 1: Washington side. Well, look, you already missed the best of
20:03
Speaker 1: the number. The game opened it's me. It's an hour
20:06
Speaker 1: at DraftKings that Uh the game opened. Uh, Washington is
20:10
Speaker 1: a three point dog. It's now Washington is now a
20:12
Speaker 1: one and a half point dog. And this is a
20:15
Speaker 1: classic pro joe game, Like the majority of the bets
20:17
Speaker 1: are coming in on the Cowboys. The majority of the
20:19
Speaker 1: money is coming in on Washington. That's why the line moved.
20:22
Speaker 1: So you're right, if you like this game, just bet
20:24
Speaker 1: the money line like that's that's it. It's probably what
20:27
Speaker 1: right now, it's probably a plus one twenty maybe, um,
20:31
Speaker 1: So just bet the money on and and that will
20:34
Speaker 1: be that by the time the game kicks off, if
20:35
Speaker 1: you haven't bet at already, you might be getting that
20:38
Speaker 1: kind of it might be even anyway. So next game
20:43
Speaker 1: Lions Falcons. This is really interesting because you've got two
20:47
Speaker 1: teams that did so well in the past week. The Falcons,
20:51
Speaker 1: so those of us who were paying attention, we were
20:53
Speaker 1: on them from the second Dan Quinn was fired. The Lions.
20:56
Speaker 1: We talked about we love them last week against a
20:58
Speaker 1: very bad Jags team. I think the Falcons fall off
21:03
Speaker 1: a cliff this week, and you're giving me at DraftKings, right,
21:08
Speaker 1: and now the Falcons are three point favorites. The money
21:11
Speaker 1: is coming in on Detroit. The bets are coming in
21:14
Speaker 1: on the Falcons. I like the Lions in this game.
21:18
Speaker 1: Call me crazy. Oh man, it's hard. Um, you're You're
21:24
Speaker 1: probably right. The number is that three. I don't hate
21:26
Speaker 1: taking the Lions here, but I just prefer to take
21:29
Speaker 1: the Falcons at home again. So the Troit team that
21:32
Speaker 1: just won on the road, it's really hard to win
21:34
Speaker 1: back to back road game, especially when you're not that
21:36
Speaker 1: great of a team. And I'm with you that the
21:39
Speaker 1: Falcons should be falling off a cliff here. But I'm
21:43
Speaker 1: one of the side that if Julio is playing and
21:44
Speaker 1: they got Ridley, they're gonna be starting to groof here,
21:47
Speaker 1: and I can see them pulling off a couple of
21:48
Speaker 1: Raindom wins here. So I'm gonna back the Falcons here
21:51
Speaker 1: at home against the Detroit team that's riding high off
21:53
Speaker 1: a blowout win. God damn it, I'm sorry. I'm so sorry.
22:00
Speaker 1: I come in with like really thoughtful analysis and seeing
22:04
Speaker 1: how the bookmakers are that the public is going to
22:07
Speaker 1: look at this game and feel differently about these teams,
22:10
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at it from a psychological perspective and
22:14
Speaker 1: you're giving me logic, like, wait a second, the Falcons
22:16
Speaker 1: actually could be getting better right now, and the Lions
22:19
Speaker 1: are a bad team who beat up on a worst team.
22:22
Speaker 1: Now they're going to play a really good offense. All right,
22:27
Speaker 1: I'm putting down, but I don't know if I want
22:30
Speaker 1: to put him in the contest. Let me just say
22:32
Speaker 1: that it's hard to argue with that. We're gonna come back.
22:35
Speaker 1: We're gonna come back to it, because how do I
22:38
Speaker 1: not want to bet the Bills as thirteen and a
22:42
Speaker 1: half point favorites against the Jets. Yeah, so last week
22:45
Speaker 1: we had a lot of really smart people reach out
22:47
Speaker 1: to us and tell us how it was dumb to
22:49
Speaker 1: take the Dolphins. Now we should just take the Patriots
22:52
Speaker 1: or the Colts and our survivor pool. But lucky for us,
22:55
Speaker 1: we're a couple of idiots and we just stayed with
22:56
Speaker 1: the Dolphins because I want to keep playing it simple,
23:00
Speaker 1: like not overthinking this and our survivor pools. We're gonna
23:03
Speaker 1: be taking the Bills because they're there off two losses, which, yeah,
23:07
Speaker 1: you could say, hey, maybe it's steam rolling right now
23:09
Speaker 1: and they're just a team that's falling apart. But I
23:11
Speaker 1: think this is the perfect opportunity for them to bounce
23:13
Speaker 1: back on weaker competition. So I love the Bills and
23:17
Speaker 1: survivor pool. I love the Bills here on the number,
23:20
Speaker 1: especially if it's Flacco, and if Sam Darnald comes back,
23:23
Speaker 1: we'll just move off of it because they are due
23:25
Speaker 1: to cover. Note like people keep putting up the statistic.
23:29
Speaker 1: I think the Raiders were the last team in like
23:31
Speaker 1: two thousand three or something like that that went oh
23:34
Speaker 1: and eight against the spread to start the year. Right now,
23:37
Speaker 1: we have two teams that haven't won against the spread,
23:39
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys and the Jets. So I said, we
23:42
Speaker 1: just keep riding the train and we put the Bills
23:44
Speaker 1: in our competition, like this number doesn't scare them if
23:46
Speaker 1: it stays under fourteen. I'm not too worried about this
23:49
Speaker 1: Bills number, especially against Flacco. Wow wow, Wow, you touchdown
23:58
Speaker 1: that's gotta be unpreced unpreced at it Bills as two
24:01
Speaker 1: touchdown favorites on the road, and you want to put
24:05
Speaker 1: that in the freaking contest that by the way, that
24:08
Speaker 1: right there is going to cost a reviewer some money
24:11
Speaker 1: because that's gonna be the one that we lose. But
24:15
Speaker 1: I'll do it. I like your gumption. I like your gumption. Yeah,
24:19
Speaker 1: we've missed out now. We should have just been fading
24:21
Speaker 1: the Jets every week, and every week we keep saying
24:23
Speaker 1: these lines are too high, we can't go against the
24:25
Speaker 1: Jets are like there do and every week they just
24:27
Speaker 1: keep going blowing out. So I say we just keep
24:29
Speaker 1: riding the train, man, I mean, Lively cannot miss right now.
24:32
Speaker 1: As long as Flat goes a quarterback, that team is horrible.
24:36
Speaker 1: That has the feeling, it has the vague feeling of
24:38
Speaker 1: a bet your balls, bet your balls pick. But I'm
24:41
Speaker 1: gonna I don't think it's gonna be it. I think
24:43
Speaker 1: we've got to find a different one. Um Panthers visiting
24:47
Speaker 1: the Saints. Panthers are seven and a half point road
24:51
Speaker 1: underdogs visiting New Orleans. I don't have a read on
24:57
Speaker 1: this game right now from a perception in public perception,
25:01
Speaker 1: you know. I like to get in the minds of
25:04
Speaker 1: the betters. That's what I do psychologically, like a Svengali.
25:09
Speaker 1: I don't want to read on this one. What's your
25:10
Speaker 1: what's your numbers? Say? What are what are the public
25:14
Speaker 1: betting on this? Uh? The Saints game? It's seven and
25:20
Speaker 1: a half and it's it's pretty split. It's fifty eight Saints.
25:24
Speaker 1: The money coming in on the Panthers right now, and
25:31
Speaker 1: I think that sharp money because I like, I'm with them.
25:34
Speaker 1: It's definitely yeah, I like. I like that at seven
25:38
Speaker 1: and a half, where we've seen from the Saints team
25:41
Speaker 1: that they're not that hard to defend. I mean, if
25:44
Speaker 1: you if you take away Kamara and you stacked the
25:47
Speaker 1: line up. I know Michael Thomps supposed to come back,
25:50
Speaker 1: but with no fans at this for the Saints, it's
25:53
Speaker 1: really affected them at home. We've seen how they haven't
25:55
Speaker 1: played great at home so far. And as long as
25:59
Speaker 1: that numbers the seven and a half, and we get
26:01
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater, who's just unbelievable covering as a dog, I
26:06
Speaker 1: like taking this. I like taking them here. I got
26:07
Speaker 1: this number at six, so we're getting to point the
26:09
Speaker 1: half of value. I like, I like Carolina here. All right,
26:13
Speaker 1: all right, I'll put it in. Listen. We've we've done great.
26:17
Speaker 1: You know, we've done great betting on the Panthers and
26:21
Speaker 1: underdog situations. Wisely, wisely bet against them is favorites this week.
26:27
Speaker 1: I got no problem with this, no problem. I don't
26:30
Speaker 1: feel like that is both either bet your balls or
26:32
Speaker 1: a hornet's nest. I got your bed in the balls.
26:35
Speaker 1: Pick You're not gonna like it all right, all right,
26:40
Speaker 1: Bengals is already making me nervous. Bengals Browns, this game,
26:45
Speaker 1: This game was a Remember remember Joe Pesci, Remember Joe
26:51
Speaker 1: Pesci Lethal Weapon three? Go to the drive through and
26:53
Speaker 1: be like, they fuck you have to drive? Let me
26:55
Speaker 1: tell you can. I give you two guys a friendly
26:57
Speaker 1: piece of advice. So, okay, don't ever go up to
27:00
Speaker 1: the drive truk Okay, always walked up to the count
27:03
Speaker 1: They fuck do at the drive Okay, stay fucking at
27:06
Speaker 1: the drive through. They know you're gonna be miles away
27:09
Speaker 1: before you find out you got fucked. Okay. I feel
27:12
Speaker 1: like this was a funky at the drive through game,
27:14
Speaker 1: Like the Browns. The last time these teams played on
27:18
Speaker 1: a Thursday night. They just let the Bengals drive right
27:22
Speaker 1: through everybody and score that touchdown that meant nothing to
27:25
Speaker 1: anybody except those of us betting on the game. Yeah. Now,
27:32
Speaker 1: now the Browns are point favorites, coming off a crappy game,
27:36
Speaker 1: getting totally exposed in the exact spot we thought they
27:39
Speaker 1: went against the Steelers that game, like it might have
27:43
Speaker 1: been the easiest game to handicap this season so far. Yeah,
27:47
Speaker 1: and it's funny. Uh, everything you said is so true
27:51
Speaker 1: about the Browns. Um. But situationally here, I'm probably gonna
27:55
Speaker 1: end up taking him. I have to know more about
27:57
Speaker 1: what's going on with Baker. I don't know if his
27:59
Speaker 1: egos for of his ribs are hurt. I don't know
28:01
Speaker 1: which which is the truth right now, but it seems
28:06
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of turmoil O where the Bengals.
28:08
Speaker 1: They've got Geno Atkins complaining about the way they're using them.
28:11
Speaker 1: You've got a j Green saying trade me on the sideline. Um.
28:15
Speaker 1: I know Joe Cool has been great and he's had
28:19
Speaker 1: these teams in these games, but if they don't have
28:21
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon, that makes them very one dimensional. And what
28:24
Speaker 1: we know about the Browns is the Browns can run
28:26
Speaker 1: the ball cream Hunt. He might have a down game
28:28
Speaker 1: last week, but that was more situational. They were just
28:30
Speaker 1: down big early. So even if it's case Keenum, I
28:35
Speaker 1: don't hate taking the Browns here. I think we'd get
28:37
Speaker 1: a better number two because I don't see a big
28:39
Speaker 1: difference really between him and Baker, So I like the
28:42
Speaker 1: Browns here. We don't have to put him in though
28:43
Speaker 1: right now, because we can wait for that injury report.
28:49
Speaker 1: You know what I thought was really interesting When the
28:52
Speaker 1: Ravens played the Bengals a couple of weeks ago, the
29:00
Speaker 1: Letchers made a note that Patrick Queen nao Joe Burrow
29:03
Speaker 1: a couple of times, and the announcers made a point
29:06
Speaker 1: of saying that those two guys when they played at
29:09
Speaker 1: LSU together did not get along. And I thought that
29:13
Speaker 1: was surprising because I thought Joe Burrow like was one
29:16
Speaker 1: of those guys who everybody loved, which just made me wonder, like,
29:21
Speaker 1: what what could this situation be between Joe Burrow and
29:24
Speaker 1: Patrick Queen. Well, Chad, you're gonna learn in life not
29:27
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna like you, Bud. Some people just look at
29:30
Speaker 1: your face and they're gonna say I don't like this guy, Chad,
29:33
Speaker 1: and it's someone with an ugly face. I go through
29:35
Speaker 1: that a lot. I'm not a man, I mean, people
29:39
Speaker 1: just different, different backgrounds, different situations. I think Joe is
29:42
Speaker 1: probably the man, but like, Joe might have done something
29:45
Speaker 1: wrong with this kid as a freshman. This kid for
29:46
Speaker 1: the rest of his Life's like, I don't like that kid.
29:48
Speaker 1: He might be the best quarterback ever played l s U.
29:51
Speaker 1: I don't like him so and I wouldn't take too
29:53
Speaker 1: much from that. I think this. Uh, that's funny you said, though,
29:58
Speaker 1: because I did see those hey, and I was like, damn,
30:00
Speaker 1: you look like you put a little mustard on that.
30:02
Speaker 1: He Like that makes sense now that you said that,
30:04
Speaker 1: that's funny because he was all over that game, Patrick Queen,
30:07
Speaker 1: another guy the Eagles passed over for a wide receiver
30:09
Speaker 1: that's not playing right now. Thank you. I won't surprise
30:13
Speaker 1: you to know that there's never been anybody who doesn't
30:17
Speaker 1: like me. Uh. Steelers on the road two point favorites
30:26
Speaker 1: over the Titans right now, two point favorites the undefeated
30:31
Speaker 1: Steelers against the Titans. That, my friend, is what I
30:37
Speaker 1: call walking into a hornets nest. I'm walking to a
30:42
Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll be my companion, Chad.
30:45
Speaker 1: What side do you like here as your honest opinion
30:47
Speaker 1: just looking at it? What side do you like? Very
30:49
Speaker 1: first instinct? I like the Titans, right, That's why I
30:54
Speaker 1: think we should go Steelers. It's like I feel like that,
30:57
Speaker 1: like I looked at it too, and that's what I
30:58
Speaker 1: thought to myself, Like, Man, I like, I like the
31:00
Speaker 1: Titans here, Like the Steelers are so do for a loss,
31:04
Speaker 1: and Big Ben always has these like crazy sloppy letdown games.
31:08
Speaker 1: But I watch Pittsburgh. They're keeping it so simple for
31:12
Speaker 1: a quarterback that's been in the NFL for it feels
31:16
Speaker 1: like twenty years. He he has one of the quickest
31:19
Speaker 1: released times on the season, where he's just making first
31:22
Speaker 1: or second quick reads on these quick passes and just
31:24
Speaker 1: getting into his players hands. And but the way they're
31:28
Speaker 1: humming right now with Claypool and the Titans coming off
31:31
Speaker 1: a huge, emotional, close fault game in their division, I
31:37
Speaker 1: just like the Steelers shore. I think there's gonna be
31:39
Speaker 1: a nice little letdown spot for the Titans here, especially
31:41
Speaker 1: the fact that they have a lost shit on the season. Um,
31:44
Speaker 1: I trust the Steelers here on the road, and I
31:46
Speaker 1: like that we're getting a number under three still, So
31:48
Speaker 1: I'll take Pittsburgh. You don't have to convince me hard
31:53
Speaker 1: to bet on the Steelers. I will go completely right now,
31:57
Speaker 1: as I tend to do after you've spoken. But the
32:03
Speaker 1: other thing you can do is look at the Titans
32:05
Speaker 1: and and how they've won their games. They haven't looked amazing.
32:10
Speaker 1: They they beat a Bill's team after they were off
32:13
Speaker 1: for two weeks that Titans were they barely beat a
32:16
Speaker 1: Texans team that probably U is not very good according
32:22
Speaker 1: and should have won that game outright. Um, and like
32:27
Speaker 1: they haven't looked amazing this year. Like sometimes they're five
32:31
Speaker 1: and not in spite of themselves, or they're five and
32:32
Speaker 1: know because Mike Vrabel just might be a genius coach
32:35
Speaker 1: who knows how to manufacture extra minutes in the game.
32:38
Speaker 1: And anybody who went on Twitter and saw sort of
32:41
Speaker 1: yesterday Vabel was trending. On Monday, Vrabel was trending because
32:46
Speaker 1: people realized it might have been Wren Sharp who recognized
32:50
Speaker 1: this first, and that's where I saw it. He put
32:53
Speaker 1: up a video that showed Mike Vrabel sending a player
32:57
Speaker 1: in on a second one sending the Texans had the
33:00
Speaker 1: ball second and one three minutes left. Mike Rabel sent
33:03
Speaker 1: a player in, so they had twelve men on the
33:06
Speaker 1: field and the defensive captain for the time for the
33:10
Speaker 1: Titans looked at him like what are you doing? But
33:12
Speaker 1: they got the five yard penalty. Rabel it probably his
33:16
Speaker 1: assumption was, they're gonna get this first down, it's gonna
33:19
Speaker 1: waste more time on the clock. Why not just give
33:21
Speaker 1: him the first down, save the time, restart the downs.
33:24
Speaker 1: And he ended up having more time to go down
33:26
Speaker 1: in the field and score. That is genius clock management.
33:29
Speaker 1: That is belichicky. And obviously he played with the paths forever,
33:32
Speaker 1: similar to what he did in the playoffs last year
33:34
Speaker 1: when he was sort of managing the clock so wisely.
33:37
Speaker 1: Um so maybe they're just manufacturing wins and the Steelers
33:41
Speaker 1: are a better team. So yes, let's let's go with
33:44
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Not only not only have I come around
33:48
Speaker 1: completely from thinking the Titans were my first instinct. This
33:51
Speaker 1: is an automatic to me, automatic play on the Steelers.
33:54
Speaker 1: There you go. I am so weak. This is why
33:58
Speaker 1: people like me. Though you know I come around. I'm
34:01
Speaker 1: not in flexible. All right, let's get out of the
34:04
Speaker 1: Steelers Titans. Let's move on to the late afternoon games.
34:10
Speaker 1: Seahawks three and a half point favorites on the road,
34:14
Speaker 1: three points three or three and a half on the
34:17
Speaker 1: road at Arizona. I don't trust him. I just don't
34:20
Speaker 1: trust him. You trust Arizona? No, I don't trust either
34:24
Speaker 1: of them, so I don't I don't want to bet
34:26
Speaker 1: this game. Well, we gotta pick a side. We can't
34:28
Speaker 1: be those guys. But yeah, man, you could the Cardinals
34:34
Speaker 1: could show up here and they could actually play a
34:36
Speaker 1: decent game. Well, Russell Wilson, off of bye week, facing
34:39
Speaker 1: a team that's just went two straight on the road,
34:42
Speaker 1: more than happy to take the Seahawks here. I take
34:44
Speaker 1: this number up to five or six, So I'm with
34:47
Speaker 1: the public on this and I'm gonna be taking the Seahawks. Interesting,
34:52
Speaker 1: very interesting. How much of this is because do you
34:55
Speaker 1: think he's impacted by the Cardinals beating up in the
34:59
Speaker 1: Cowboys so bad way? Uh? Not much. I think it's
35:02
Speaker 1: more that, um, like you're probably you're probably right on
35:06
Speaker 1: with the like the numbers are saying. The way the
35:08
Speaker 1: Seahawks are playing, it just isn't sustainable. All the holes
35:11
Speaker 1: on their team is eventually gonna come to a head.
35:14
Speaker 1: And I think they open this line to three to
35:17
Speaker 1: kind of scare off a lot of sharp money or
35:20
Speaker 1: maybe get making people come in on Arizona saying, oh
35:22
Speaker 1: why is this number three? That's a weird number to
35:24
Speaker 1: open with. But I think this is just a bad number.
35:28
Speaker 1: And it's one of those where the books going to
35:30
Speaker 1: trick people and they're trying to scare people off the
35:32
Speaker 1: end of the Seahawks and come Sunday, this is gonna
35:35
Speaker 1: be one of the biggest liability games. That's my only
35:37
Speaker 1: pause with it. That everyone's gonna come in on the Seahawks.
35:39
Speaker 1: That's the public. They're gonna be taking this number. The
35:41
Speaker 1: only people are really on the Cardinals come Sunday are
35:44
Speaker 1: going to be sharps. But for me looking at this,
35:47
Speaker 1: I think they're still undervalue. In Russell Wilson coming off
35:50
Speaker 1: a bye week, they might come out sleepwalking maybe for
35:53
Speaker 1: the first half, like who knows what the Seahawks, but
35:56
Speaker 1: I just think once they turn it on once they
35:58
Speaker 1: just start laying into the Cardinals. The Cardinals aren'ta be
36:00
Speaker 1: able to come back. We're gonna a couple of Murray
36:02
Speaker 1: turnovers and I think this will just snowball. So I
36:04
Speaker 1: do like this number a lot for the Seahawks. What
36:08
Speaker 1: do you haven't rated at I had it at six,
36:11
Speaker 1: so that's what I mean. I would take it up
36:12
Speaker 1: to five and a half, up to six, and once
36:13
Speaker 1: across the six and a half seven, the value is
36:16
Speaker 1: gonna shift to the Cardinals. So like, at that point,
36:18
Speaker 1: by some crazy reason, it gets all up to that number,
36:21
Speaker 1: I would take the Cardinals, but I'm happy taking the Seahawks.
36:24
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, you have it at six. Like what am
36:27
Speaker 1: I supposed to do with that kind of information? I'm
36:29
Speaker 1: going to be the guy who goes from like not
36:32
Speaker 1: even wanting to talk about a game to the guy
36:34
Speaker 1: who puts like his entire bank roll on the game,
36:37
Speaker 1: because you're telling me there's a two and a half
36:38
Speaker 1: point delta right now between your number and what the
36:41
Speaker 1: what the bookmakers are showing. It's like the Browns and
36:43
Speaker 1: the Steelers last week, but you were like, I don't
36:45
Speaker 1: want to touch this game, and you said, come Sunday,
36:48
Speaker 1: we're playing other Browns and and back, and then I said, no,
36:50
Speaker 1: come Sunday, We're definitely at the Steelers. And thank god
36:52
Speaker 1: you came around the end of the week and you're like,
36:54
Speaker 1: you know what, You're so right, this is an easy
36:55
Speaker 1: play with the Steelers. So this is one of those
36:57
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll come around and later the week, but I
36:59
Speaker 1: think it's another one of those they're trying to give
37:01
Speaker 1: you the hook and a divisional game, saying this should
37:04
Speaker 1: be a close, full game with the Cardinals, But I
37:07
Speaker 1: just like the Seehawks here, we haven't gotten to your
37:11
Speaker 1: bet your balls game yet and we've only got a handful.
37:15
Speaker 1: We've got five games left, including the Chiefs on the
37:18
Speaker 1: road at the Broncos. Chiefs is nine point favorites on
37:22
Speaker 1: the road. Too much, too much against this defense, too
37:26
Speaker 1: much for a Chiefs team that plays inconsistently against division opponents,
37:32
Speaker 1: and um, well that's it too much. Yeah, playing with
37:39
Speaker 1: fire though, So I wouldn't even touch it because we're
37:42
Speaker 1: back in the Denver team, who are their first team
37:44
Speaker 1: since two thousand one to go to New England, have
37:47
Speaker 1: the QB throw tener restructions and win the game. So
37:52
Speaker 1: are the Broncos just hitting teams in the right situations
37:55
Speaker 1: and catching teams on the right spots to be covering
37:57
Speaker 1: so much and getting these wins. It's hard to saying, like,
38:00
Speaker 1: I'm with you, like this could be an easy spot
38:02
Speaker 1: to take the Broncos because it's so many points in
38:04
Speaker 1: divisional games, especially while they're at home. But in my mind,
38:09
Speaker 1: it's it's tough for me to really think the Broncos
38:11
Speaker 1: can keep up with the Chiefs, especially well, the Chiefs
38:15
Speaker 1: team looked like they were trying against the Bills. That
38:17
Speaker 1: was such a weird game because of the rain and
38:19
Speaker 1: just the way they're playing that. I'm with you, I'm
38:22
Speaker 1: gonna be back in the Broncos here, but in the contest,
38:25
Speaker 1: I don't want to put either of these guys in,
38:26
Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna leave it out all right. Four
38:32
Speaker 1: games left to pay your balls. Patriots forty Niners two
38:39
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs on the road at New England.
38:44
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm being baited here because the Patriots
38:47
Speaker 1: are clearly not the same team with Cam Newton playing quarterback,
38:51
Speaker 1: and he hasn't been a guy who, even when they've
38:53
Speaker 1: been winning, was you know play it was the reason
38:57
Speaker 1: they were winning. And then it is like to me,
39:02
Speaker 1: I was all over this past week against your advice,
39:05
Speaker 1: went so far as to go so far from your
39:07
Speaker 1: advice that I actually just begged them to win and cash.
39:11
Speaker 1: But I still like the Niners and Dogs down the
39:13
Speaker 1: road like in this spot, It's like why because they
39:18
Speaker 1: went on Sunday night and the Patriots look so bad. Chad,
39:21
Speaker 1: You're better than this, You're right, and you know no,
39:28
Speaker 1: you're telling me, I got it back to page. Yeah,
39:32
Speaker 1: like the I mean, I get it. It's all a
39:34
Speaker 1: new year, Belichick. We we know the stats. Before Brady
39:38
Speaker 1: got to him, he wasn't that great of a coach.
39:39
Speaker 1: Apparently he lost a lot of games before you had
39:41
Speaker 1: Tom Brady under said him. But how am I gonna
39:45
Speaker 1: bet on? The page is going to own three and
39:48
Speaker 1: you're you're back in Jimmy Garoppolo, who he might have
39:51
Speaker 1: had like four passes that were over five yards. Everything
39:54
Speaker 1: he was doing, we're quick dump offs to the sidelines,
39:57
Speaker 1: quick passes because that ain't going isn't right. They kept
40:00
Speaker 1: showing a bunch of times. It's all taped out. So
40:04
Speaker 1: I'm gonna back to Patriots. They have no more COVID
40:06
Speaker 1: stoppage of practices. They can get a weekend together. They
40:09
Speaker 1: just look like a team that was rusty. Especially Can.
40:11
Speaker 1: He looked like he had to played in a month.
40:13
Speaker 1: So I like the Patriots, Tya, and I especially like
40:16
Speaker 1: that the early money came in on San fran and
40:18
Speaker 1: move this line down below three. Like, I gets what
40:20
Speaker 1: you're saying. They're trapping us in here. I think Vegas
40:23
Speaker 1: is like everyone else, so they're just unsure they don't
40:24
Speaker 1: really trust this Patriots team because they're a different team
40:27
Speaker 1: right now. But I'm gonna trust New England and I'm
40:32
Speaker 1: gonna trust that this country cost country trip for San
40:34
Speaker 1: France after a big win on primetime game is gonna
40:37
Speaker 1: affect them. So I like this number a lot. I'm
40:39
Speaker 1: gonna take the Patriots line opened uh Patriots minus five
40:43
Speaker 1: and a half. It is now at two and a half.
40:45
Speaker 1: So clearly it's been bent down the money uhtycent of
40:49
Speaker 1: the money, So that's usually professional indication of professional support
40:53
Speaker 1: is on San Francisco right now. So all right, then
40:57
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna put him on a list right now.
40:59
Speaker 1: We got six teams on our list that we're gonna
41:01
Speaker 1: be choosing from with at least one have some injury concerns.
41:05
Speaker 1: So yeah, and like you just said, one week is
41:09
Speaker 1: a three is it worth three points of line movement?
41:13
Speaker 1: So that's like one of those where it's like exactly,
41:15
Speaker 1: so it's even if you lose this England bet, we're
41:17
Speaker 1: getting the best of the number and this is the
41:18
Speaker 1: smart smart play this week. You're right, You're right, simon,
41:22
Speaker 1: see see what you do? Like I I would have
41:25
Speaker 1: skipped it and now you're making me reimagine how I
41:28
Speaker 1: make decisions. And it's not just about betting, it's about
41:30
Speaker 1: everyday life. There you go, Oh my god, it's just
41:35
Speaker 1: gonna be the bet your balls? Am I gonna have
41:36
Speaker 1: to bet in the Jags against the Chargers? The Jags
41:39
Speaker 1: is seven and a half point underdogs on the road.
41:41
Speaker 1: Is that what you're telling me I'm gonna have to do? No, don't,
41:43
Speaker 1: don't you worry, it's coming. I'm saving the best for last, buddy. Uh,
41:49
Speaker 1: I don't want to do it. Like, of course we
41:51
Speaker 1: should take the Jaguars here. This is a good number
41:53
Speaker 1: going to get to a rookie quarterback. Um, a rookie
41:57
Speaker 1: quarterback that makes one or two dumb plays a game.
42:00
Speaker 1: But the fact that the Chargers are coming off of
42:03
Speaker 1: buy and the Jaguars they've been down there some of
42:06
Speaker 1: their best defenders the last two weeks and we've really shown,
42:09
Speaker 1: we've really seen how they just can't stop anyone, especially
42:11
Speaker 1: that on Josh Allen as a pass rusher. So I'm
42:15
Speaker 1: cool with taking the Chargers here. I know it's a
42:17
Speaker 1: bad number. That's my seven and a half and technically
42:19
Speaker 1: the value will be on the Jags. But I think
42:21
Speaker 1: they're just trying to get money on the Jags right
42:23
Speaker 1: now because I know so many teasers and different things
42:26
Speaker 1: we've tied to the Chargers. But I don't mind taking
42:28
Speaker 1: the number for the Chargers. All right, Well, we're not
42:31
Speaker 1: putting in the contest no way. All right, we got
42:36
Speaker 1: two games left and we haven't done to bet your
42:38
Speaker 1: balls pick, So it's got to be either the Bucks
42:41
Speaker 1: at like minus three on the road against the Raiders,
42:45
Speaker 1: or the Bears, who are five and a half point
42:49
Speaker 1: dogs on the road on Monday Night football against the Rams. Um.
42:55
Speaker 1: Well let's go to the Bucks first, Bucks, big, big win.
42:59
Speaker 1: On my god, this is gonna be it. You're gonna
43:01
Speaker 1: tell me to bet the Raiders in Vegas coming off
43:04
Speaker 1: a huge home win over the undefeated Packers for Tom Brady,
43:07
Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna tell me to do. Situationally, I'm
43:11
Speaker 1: with you. It's probably the right move. But this is now.
43:13
Speaker 1: This This isn't a bet the balls of the week.
43:16
Speaker 1: This is a This is one of those I really
43:19
Speaker 1: don't It's it's tough to pick a side because I
43:21
Speaker 1: could see it end up being a shootout. I know
43:23
Speaker 1: we talked about last week how good the Bucks defense is.
43:26
Speaker 1: But the way the Raiders play, it's hard for what
43:30
Speaker 1: Tampa does well to stipen and what the Raiders do
43:33
Speaker 1: and they're just quick hitters with just a lot of speed.
43:38
Speaker 1: And my mentality coming to this game is I don't
43:42
Speaker 1: like either side because I just see it being a shootout,
43:43
Speaker 1: like this is a Sunday night shootout. It feels like
43:46
Speaker 1: and if you're gonna bet this game, it's hard not
43:50
Speaker 1: to take the Bucks here because it's easier trust for me,
43:55
Speaker 1: it's easier trusting Brady here than it is to trust
43:57
Speaker 1: Derek Carr and shootout game. But I'm gonna leave this
44:00
Speaker 1: one out. I'm not gonna put this in the competition. Well,
44:04
Speaker 1: I'm so glad. Can I convince you to take the
44:06
Speaker 1: Raiders or your bank wrong? I'm kidding, I have no
44:08
Speaker 1: interest in that. Let's talk about the bet your balls
44:14
Speaker 1: bet of the week. The Bears are visiting the Los
44:20
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. There are five and a half point dogs
44:25
Speaker 1: Monday night for all my favorite team in prime time.
44:30
Speaker 1: That's always, uh, a little bit disconcerting. Tell me what
44:35
Speaker 1: you're thinking here, Simon, And you know the meme with
44:38
Speaker 1: Paul Rudden. It's him like eating the wings and you say,
44:41
Speaker 1: who would have saw us sitting here? Who would have thought?
44:43
Speaker 1: Who'd have thought? You know, thank you? Look at us, Hey,
44:47
Speaker 1: look at us, Look at us. The Bears man five
44:51
Speaker 1: and one, the top of the division. I don't know
44:54
Speaker 1: how many people are calling that in May, but you're
44:56
Speaker 1: you're listening to people that talked about the value of
44:58
Speaker 1: the Bears and now we we saw this kind of
45:00
Speaker 1: season coming from. So that's what I'm talking about. You.
45:04
Speaker 1: You are my Matthew McConaughey to my what do you alright? Alright? Alright?
45:12
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, follow Simon Hunter on Twitter.
45:15
Speaker 1: There was a beautiful picture of McConaughey and Harrelson together
45:19
Speaker 1: swimming and Simon's like, this is me and chat just
45:22
Speaker 1: pure bliss man. Time is a circle two guys who
45:26
Speaker 1: have who have just figured out how to live in
45:29
Speaker 1: every single way. And now that I warmed up play
45:33
Speaker 1: you Bear fans, I'm sorry to say it. Well, this
45:35
Speaker 1: is easy pick of the Rams, easy player of the week.
45:38
Speaker 1: That your balls on the Rams and all the public
45:42
Speaker 1: coming in on the Bears after a big road win,
45:45
Speaker 1: people are starting to believe the Rams played horribly against
45:51
Speaker 1: San fran And it's just an easy game where the
45:56
Speaker 1: Bears they're gonna win a lot of games and they're
45:58
Speaker 1: a great team, but they're gonna have weeks like this
46:02
Speaker 1: where it's just gonna catch up to them. And I mean,
46:05
Speaker 1: how many wins straight are they on right now? They
46:07
Speaker 1: have four straight wins? No, no, they've won five, but
46:12
Speaker 1: they lost to the Colts three weeks ago, so they
46:16
Speaker 1: have two straight wins. Okay, right, So just like they
46:22
Speaker 1: beat the Box, then they beat Thes. Just looking at it, um,
46:26
Speaker 1: it's really tough to win two divisions, two division on
46:29
Speaker 1: two road games in a row, let alone two ones
46:33
Speaker 1: that you're flying down to North Carolina, now you're flying back,
46:35
Speaker 1: and now you're flying a way out to the West Coast.
46:37
Speaker 1: So I think, just situationally, the Bears defense, they're gonna
46:41
Speaker 1: have a letdown game, especially into on this turf field.
46:43
Speaker 1: I think the speed is gonna be too much for
46:45
Speaker 1: them to handle with the Rams, and I like the Rams.
46:49
Speaker 1: You're in a bounce back spot and a lot of
46:51
Speaker 1: people are gonna be trying a lot of money into
46:52
Speaker 1: the Bears in this game, especially in teasers, because you
46:55
Speaker 1: can get this number above ten putting a teaser. I
46:58
Speaker 1: like the rams and I like them big Wow, you
47:02
Speaker 1: like him big? All right, I'm sorry, I don't think so.
47:05
Speaker 1: I don't mind the emotional hedge. This is a good
47:08
Speaker 1: opportunity for me, so I'm all for us. So here, Simon,
47:11
Speaker 1: let me recap for people. Right now, we want to
47:14
Speaker 1: go five and oh this week. Right now, the teams
47:17
Speaker 1: and so just so everyone knows, we will choose from
47:20
Speaker 1: these teams on Sunday morning. Follow Simon Hunter in the
47:24
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Reminder, download the app. It's free. Simon
47:27
Speaker 1: Hunter in the Action Network app. That's where you can
47:30
Speaker 1: get like our final decisions. Um, but these are the
47:33
Speaker 1: teams that we're thinking about as of Tuesday, and then
47:36
Speaker 1: we will make these decisions on Sunday morning. Simon will
47:39
Speaker 1: text me. I will drop everything and I will immediately
47:42
Speaker 1: respond and then I will go onto the Action Network
47:46
Speaker 1: Live at at Action Network HQ, growing every week bills
47:50
Speaker 1: minus thirteen and a half. We're gonna keep an eye
47:51
Speaker 1: on that line. Over the Jets. We look at the
47:55
Speaker 1: Panthers seven have a good saint Browns. This one makes
47:58
Speaker 1: me sick to my stomach. Browns minus three and a
48:01
Speaker 1: half on the road against the Bengals. If we find
48:04
Speaker 1: out what's happening with Baker, we gotta sort of understand
48:07
Speaker 1: that this one I didn't want to do at all.
48:09
Speaker 1: Came around. Steelers minus two against the Titans on the road.
48:14
Speaker 1: Also didn't even want to talk about this game, but
48:16
Speaker 1: now we are putting our entire bank roll on it.
48:19
Speaker 1: Seahawks minus three and a half on the road against Arizona. Uh, Pats.
48:23
Speaker 1: This game opened at Pat's minus five and a half.
48:26
Speaker 1: It is now two and a half playing against the
48:28
Speaker 1: forty Niners in Foxborough. Uh we like that game. And
48:32
Speaker 1: then Rams minus five and a half against the Bears.
48:37
Speaker 1: That's our bet your Balls pick of the week. It
48:41
Speaker 1: sounds about right, doesn't It sounds about right. It sounds
48:43
Speaker 1: like a lot of favorites. Usually we're big dog guys,
48:46
Speaker 1: but it looks like this week we're liking the value
48:48
Speaker 1: of the favorite. So we've got one favorite. We've got
48:50
Speaker 1: one dog here with the Panthers. And you mentioned teasers.
48:53
Speaker 1: By the way, we do have some cool opportunities for teasers.
48:56
Speaker 1: We've got like if we want to do with this
48:58
Speaker 1: point teaser and get through key numbers, I I am
49:01
Speaker 1: now thinking about key numbers is eight Seahawks minus three
49:05
Speaker 1: and a half. You can tease it up to nine
49:06
Speaker 1: and a half. Pats minus two and a half, tease
49:09
Speaker 1: it up to eight and a half. Rams. You mentioned
49:11
Speaker 1: you can tease that, um, you can tease that through
49:14
Speaker 1: eight through seven, eight and ten. I think it's time
49:16
Speaker 1: to uh announce the winner of last week's pod. Because
49:21
Speaker 1: last week we asked fans to rate and review of
49:22
Speaker 1: the podcast. Those who did and use the winning phrase
49:25
Speaker 1: in the review were eligible to win a free Action
49:26
Speaker 1: network hoodie. We had a lot of reviews and and
49:29
Speaker 1: as you remember, last week, I stupidly admitted that I've
49:33
Speaker 1: once gotten a fight with my wife about breastfeeding. So
49:35
Speaker 1: don't be surprised if that's part of the winning review.
49:38
Speaker 1: But a reminder, a reminder. This week's phrase that pay
49:41
Speaker 1: starting for the second half of the season or week seven,
49:44
Speaker 1: because we went five to know this week, we are celebrating,
49:46
Speaker 1: we are feeling cocky. We want to give away some cash.
49:48
Speaker 1: The winner for this week's phrase that pays contest earns
49:52
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars for every win Simon and I have
49:55
Speaker 1: in this week's contest. We go five to Know someone's
49:58
Speaker 1: winning five hundred, we go four and one, someone's winning
50:01
Speaker 1: four hundred, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Rate review the podcast using
50:05
Speaker 1: the phrase Simon says, we worked it out and we
50:08
Speaker 1: will randomly choose the winner of that cash. Meanwhile, the
50:13
Speaker 1: winner of a hoodie. Sorry, buddy, just you know too bad?
50:17
Speaker 1: Jeff Brauner Jeff Browner, who's five star review was titled
50:22
Speaker 1: we have a failure to communicate, So Simon says, we
50:26
Speaker 1: need to communicate, but not if all you do is
50:29
Speaker 1: listen to this podcast. As long as you stopped communicating
50:34
Speaker 1: after listening and go with this advice, you will have
50:37
Speaker 1: your winners all day long, and then you can move
50:40
Speaker 1: on arguing with your wife about her friend's boyfriends or
50:44
Speaker 1: whether or not she should breastfeed. Jeff, thanks for making
50:47
Speaker 1: this a part of our day. I love it. Jeff.
50:50
Speaker 1: I'm sorry we can't give you money, buddy, but hopefully
50:52
Speaker 1: you even win along with us will make up for it.
50:54
Speaker 1: Just get a hoody and enjoy it. Just bet the
50:57
Speaker 1: bets we make and you will be swimming in money.
51:00
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Action Network.
51:02
Speaker 1: Guy him Chad Moment. He is Simon Hunter downloaded, iTunes, Spotify,
51:07
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review, Subscribe until next time,
51:14
Speaker 1: Love you,