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September Markets: Fed Focus and Mixed Signals · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hey everyone , and welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the financial markets !
• 0:07
  I'm your host , Chartsy Charlie , and it's 6 am on Tuesday , September 2nd , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:15
  We've got a lot to unpack this morning , so grab your coffee and let's dive into the market action .
• 0:21
  First up , let's get a quick recap of where we stand .
• 0:25
  Wall Street was closed yesterday for Labor Day , so our last full trading day was Friday , August 29th .
• 0:33
  Major indices closed lower that day , largely due to some profittaking in technology stocks .
• 0:40
  The S&P 500 tumbled 0.6% to finish at 6,460.26 , while the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.2% to 21,455.55 .
• 0:55
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.2% to 45,544.88 .
• 1:04
  Despite that Friday dip , all three major indexes finished August in positive territory , with the S&P 500 up 1.9% for the month , bringing its yeartodate gain to about 10% .
• 1:19
  Over the past year , the S&P 500 is up a solid 15.10% .
• 1:26
  On the macroeconomic front , we're seeing some mixed signals .
• 1:30
  The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is estimating a substantial jump in Q3 2025 GDP growth to 3.5% , which is a big leap from 2.2% earlier in the quarter , thanks to strengthened consumer spending and a resilient job market .
• 1:50
  However , Goldman Sachs recently cut its Q3 U.S.
• 1:53
  GDP forecast to a more modest 1.6% due to an unexpected expansion in the goods trade deficit .
• 2:01
  Inflation remains a sticky concern ; the annual inflation rate for the U.S.
• 2:06
  was 2.7% for the 12 months ending July , and the Fed's preferred gauge , the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index , edged up slightly to 2.9% annually in July .
• 2:20
  Now , about the Federal Reserve and interest rates : they've maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%4.50% since December 18 , 2024 , marking their fifth consecutive hold .
• 2:33
  The next rate decision is September 17th , and expectations are mixed .
• 2:38
  While some , like JPMorgan , anticipate a 25basispoint cut due to a slowing labor market , others , such as Morgan Stanley , are more cautious , citing persistent inflation .
• 2:50
  Market odds for a September rate cut were high in late August , between 8089% , but some experts think it's already