Latest / Best of Business / Sam Trethewey: Milford Asset Management Portfolio Manager on the current state of the 2025 stock market

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Sam Trethewey: Milford Asset Management Portfolio Manager on the current state of the 2025 stock market · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Six twenty three on News Talks EDB. Sam Trithawi is
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  Speaker 2: with us, he's with Milford Asset Management.
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  Speaker 3: Good evening, good ending. Right.
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  Speaker 2: Firstly, how would you summarize earning season? What companies were
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  Speaker 2: your high as, what were your loose.
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  Speaker 3: I think that earning season overall really confirmed what was
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  Speaker 3: not perhaps not a surprise for most at the second
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  Speaker 3: half of last year was a very tough period for
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand companies and within the results reported you could
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  Speaker 3: see impacts of a weak consumer, not dramatically worse than prior,
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  Speaker 3: but certainly not improving. And on the back of it
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  Speaker 3: there was a big step up in corporates taking a
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  Speaker 3: much more serious approach to cost cutting. Probably one of
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  Speaker 3: the positives was really around the labour pressures that if
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  Speaker 3: you went back to three years ago, a lot of
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  Speaker 3: CEO is one of the top concerns was finding staff
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  Speaker 3: or the availability of labor. That has now flipped the
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  Speaker 3: other way. So overall not dramatically worse than expected, but
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  Speaker 3: definitely subdued in terms of highlights and lowlights. I think
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  Speaker 3: what was former A two sorry, what was the former market?
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  Speaker 3: Darling a too of milk? That was a clear standout
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  Speaker 3: stock up thirty seven percent as the company really got
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  Speaker 3: its mojo back, taking material share in the Chinese and
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  Speaker 3: for formul their market and lowlights Spark in Royman Healthcare. Really,
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  Speaker 3: what's a soft training update in a large one billion
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  Speaker 3: dollar capital race?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? Which of those two things was more of a
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  Speaker 2: surprise to you? Because we know that Spark's been in
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  Speaker 2: trouble for a week while, so getting that news perhaps
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  Speaker 2: wasn't It wasn't as surprising as the Ryman equity raise.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I I agree. I think it's the Ryman
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  Speaker 3: rays that that would have surprised investors the most. The
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  Speaker 3: Spark result well, clearly not great, and you know there
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  Speaker 3: were hents rounds. I guess loss of control of the
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  Speaker 3: cost base from management. It follows several soft trading updates
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  Speaker 3: from the company over the last year or so. But
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  Speaker 3: for Ryman, I think that really surprised in two ways.
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  Speaker 3: So firstly, that trading update that they put out sales
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  Speaker 3: of units within their villages. We're tracking at sixty percent
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  Speaker 3: of the prior year over the last week so over
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  Speaker 3: the last few weeks, so a big step down there.
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  Speaker 3: And secondly, if you'd asked most investors who follow the
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  Speaker 3: company closely, does Ryan Ryman need more cash? I think
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  Speaker 3: the answer would have been something like potentially in the future,
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  Speaker 3: but nothing is pressing at this stage. After they did
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  Speaker 3: step up and raise new equity in an emergency way
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  Speaker 3: two years ago, so that meant that the raising was
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  Speaker 3: priced a heavy discount and had a pretty material fly
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  Speaker 3: on impact to the wider market as investors look to
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  Speaker 3: fund it.
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  Speaker 2: Sam, this has obviously not been a great reporting season
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  Speaker 2: for us for the half year. How far off peak
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  Speaker 2: bad news do you think we are?
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  Speaker 3: I think the fact that corporatings were subdued but not
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  Speaker 3: maturely worse suggests that yes, we potentially are at peak
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  Speaker 3: bad news or the trough of the economic cycle. The
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  Speaker 3: real question facing investors is really down downtown and has
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  Speaker 3: been prolonged so far. And then secondly, what recovery path
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  Speaker 3: will we follow? So management teams from large companies just
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  Speaker 3: hope of or optimism of recovery in the second half
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  Speaker 3: of the year of the year, and yes they are
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  Speaker 3: taking cost out much more seriously. But I'll be watching
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  Speaker 3: the consumer closely for signs of that strong demand to
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  Speaker 3: get an indication of that pace of recovery. So when
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  Speaker 3: will we actually see lower mortgage rates start to lift
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  Speaker 3: consumer spending more materially than what's happened so far.
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  Speaker 2: Hopefully soon, Sam, thank you for that same truth. We
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  Speaker 2: Milford Asset Management with the look back at reporting season.
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