Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold and Bitcoin Surge: Insights from Chris Vermeulen #6013

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Gold and Bitcoin Surge: Insights from Chris Vermeulen #6013 · Financial Survival Network

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Bitcoins on fire, screaming to the upside, on the verge of hitting new
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all time highs. You know, this is one of those things where to
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me kind of confirms we're in this kind of a little bit of that feeding
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frenzy. People are piling into small cap growth stocks, very very like the
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r ETFs, and they're piling into bitcoin. To me, it's a very
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similar type of mentality, similar type of trade. People chasing the money,
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trying to make a lot fast and the fast moving assets. You are listening
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to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't
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find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your
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You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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Carrie Lutz. It's March four, twenty twenty four, so that makes
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it three or twenty four whatever that means. Importantly, two major breakouts taking
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place. Number one is gold broken twenty one hundred for the first time ever,
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and number two is Bitcoin it's up to very close to its all time
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high. Depending what indicator you read, it's somewhere at sixty seven five,
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sixty seven seven. Right now it's at sixty seven four. It's also breaking
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out. And Chris Vermilion Vermulein is with us now and Chris been a while.
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Hey, we want to get your perspective, charts, technical trading,
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what's going on here? And by the way, if you got a question
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for Chris myself, and you should at this point, the email address is
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kl at Carrie LUTs dot com and please ascend. So gold, let's talk
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about gold first. That's what everybody's talking about. What are you say?
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See it? Yeah? Well, great to be back on the show,
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Kerry. Obviously we're starting to see gold breakout and start a pretty big run
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based on technical analysis going back different time frames. In the next stuff for
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gold, if it can hold above twenty one hundred and it hold its ground
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here, I think we're going about twenty three hundred is going to be the
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first stop. So I think we could see a multi week run here to
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the upside. Looking at the bigger pictures stepping back actually shows gold running all
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the way potentially to twenty seven hundred, and this could happen in the window
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going maybe into May. So this is over the next few months, which
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is pretty exciting. We've been waiting for gold in the precious metal space to
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come to life. Gold has been holding up the best simply, I think
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for a few different reasons. In my opinion, it's definitely a very solid,
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slow moving investment. I think people like something that's not very volatile.
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They could put more money into it without it causing a lot of emotional stress.
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And people who buy gold tend to just hold it because it generally moves
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really slow. It's not something you flip right away. And investors in gold
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are the buy and old more or less mentality. So gold has been holding
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its value, keeps going up, and from a technical standpoint, I mean
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it's in a very strong up trend, not only on the daily and weekly
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chart, but also on the monthly and the yearly chart. We are in
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a very strong market condition here for gold, which we saw this back just
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before the two thousand and eight tech ball are the two thousand and eight market
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top. We saw gold silver miners explode and rally for several months and really
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ripped to the upside. So I think we're coming into something similar to that.
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I've talked about that a few times over the last month or two,
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that this is starting to unfold and we might see a very nice run where
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people start to pile into the precious metal space for several weeks or a couple
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of months and generate some good potential here. So you think this is a
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multi year super bowl market for the yellow metal, I think it's a multi
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week, multi month I think this could be a nice push higher. I
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do think eventually we're going to see the stock market run out of steam,
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which and I can talk about in a minute, but all the signs are
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there. The stock market's starting to run out of steam. And if the
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economy and the stock market starts to head down and we go into some type
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of recession or bear market, I think we're gonna see gold pull back.
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But I do think gold medals are primed and ready to run for several weeks
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or a couple of months, and then and then it'll take a breather and
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a pause. But I do think we are in a super cycle for gold.
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I think it's going to rally overall. If you're to look at the
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yearly charter monthly charts for several years, but right now we're on a push
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higher. But I do think we'll have a fairly sharp correction probably later this
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year, which will probably be one of the last opportunities to kind of get
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gold before I think it goes into the multi year rally as you just mentioned,
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which I think is going to be very significant. You're looking in three
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thousand plus for gold going forward. Wow, so that much? Uh three
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thousand dollars gold? Uh? Well, we've been waiting a long time for
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this day, Chris, and it looks like it's finally getting closer. And
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what can stop it from going higher at this point? Yeah, I don't
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know. I think there's a wall of worry. I mean, the Vicks
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has been slowly creeping up all year as people get nervous, they move to
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defensive plays. Gold is I don't know what's going to take the wind out
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of the sales at this point for gold, it just has a lot of
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momentum behind it. The only thing will really be a stock market correction,
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a recession, forced liquidation panic. When there's panic in the streets, everybody
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just sells and that will pull gold back. But a lot of things are
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favoring you know, the rising gold price. With banks, you know,
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banks struggling and going out of business. People are worried losing their money,
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so they're moving to physical That could be one of the reasons why we're seeing
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this big pop in gold the last couple of training sessions. So you think
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there's some panics starting there. I mean I read there is another bank or
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two in the US that seem to seem to be having issues, shall we
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say? Yeah? Well, I mean I think it was on Friday you
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were mentioning earlier there's a big, big sell off of one of the banking
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stocks going under. Of course, gold put in a big rally that same
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day, and when it's continuing to rally today. So any sign of the
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banking system going down, people naturally want to flock to more or less physical
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metals, get out of those digital bag accounts that can be drained and go
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bankrupt and own something. So I think that could be a big movement towards
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the gold space, and also towards bitcoin. People are getting away from the
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dollar digital dollars in banks that can go under it and moving to physical or
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crypto. So yeah, I think there's a flock to a different currency right
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now, all right, so currency, political instability. It is a silly
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season otherwise known as the presidential campaign. Do you think that's having an impact
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here? That could be. I mean I don't follow news or or any
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of that stuff too frequently. There is obviously a presidential cycle that goes into
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play, but it doesn't mean it's going to always move the markets. So
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again, I really just focus on what people are where they're putting their money.
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That to me, is the most important thing. Right now. They
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are moving into gold, they are moving into small caps and growth stocks and
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technology. We are in what I believe is the kind of that feeding frenzy
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mode where everybody's now starting to buy back into all of those growth stocks.
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They think a new major bull market has started. And while we are in
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a bullmarket for stocks, I don't think it's a multi year bullmarket that people
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are expecting. I think this is going to be a multi month rally and
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then it's going to fizzle out and it's going to go a whole lot lower
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thirty forty fifty percent for equities. So there's definitely you know, people moving
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into this into the precious metal space. I think just as kind of a
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defensive play because I think we're going to see this market sell off. So
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I think it's smart money moving into a safer, safer investment. Okay,
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what about silver. You know, the two have like really kind of diverged
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because gold obviously trading at or near or over all time record highs. Silver
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still trading like fifty cents fifty GIFs and if it's all time high, does
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this get reversed? Is it the same people buying silver who are buying gold,
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or is it a different type of consumer but both having the same goals.
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Yeah, that's a good question, I would say there, I would
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say they're more so a different consumer. I think we're seeing gold get a
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que related by large institutions countries. Silver is definitely more volatile, as I
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think it is a little bit of a different group of buyers or traders more
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so, Silver definitely lagging, same with gold miners. I mean, they've
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all been struggling. And that's one of the reasons why I don't think we're
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starting the next multi year rally in precious metals. I think this is this
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is going to be a leg higher, but we're going to go back and
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have a bigger pause later this year, simply because silver is not really joining
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in on this party, and we're not the mild miners. The miners too.
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Like maybe it's old school wisdom here, perceived wisdom, but it's generally
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that moves and the metals don't stick until the miners. The miners are supposed
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to lead the medals, not the other way around. And when they do
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lead the when the metals do lead the miners, then we see these rallies
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often short lived dolby we do, and that's where there's divergence. We're not
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seeing the leverage plays behind gold, which is silver in the miners, we're
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not Yeah, they've had a big bounce in the past couple of days,
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but really they're just an oversold bounce within a down trend. They're they're struggling,
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they're not really participating yet. They might kick into an up trend and
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get some traction, but based on my technicals and trend analysis, they're still
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training in a down trend and actually getting overbought here. So it's going to
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be interesting to see how they play out, because without them following suit,
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it's if people aren't moving into the leverage play behind it. Then to me,
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it's not the real deal, the full big move that's coming. Typically,
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if we're going to see this big, big rally in precious metals,
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a lot of people should be piling into these leverage plays to make a fortune.
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Instead, they've been really moving in the opposite direction and selling shares.
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And now there's been a big kafuffle, I think with some scandals going on
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in the gold stock space, which may have added to some pressure, but
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really doesn't have a lot to do with I think the fact that they've been
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going down for a long time and silver is just not getting any traction either.
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So okay, well, you know that's the weird thing. But is
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it possible the fundamentals have changed here, Chris, It's possible, And I
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mean anything really is possible. I mean stuff, you know, things just
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don't always have to make sense, and they don't have to follow what they've
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done in the past. Nobody would have thought crude oil would go negative,
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and you know, it's so things can go completely out of whack and it
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doesn't have to make sense. And that's where that's where my type of analysis
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comes out and kind of really shines, is because we can ignore the news,
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ignore the presidental cycles and the FED and all that stuff, and we
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can just follow price. If price is going up, we're long. If
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it's going down, we're either benefit from it falling or we're in a different
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asset class altogether. So just by following prices so much easier than trying to
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figure out how the fundamentals change. What are people, you know, thinking,
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what's going on in the news. All that stuff, to me is
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just a lot of noise because no matter what they say, you've got to
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follow the price action. So it goes again, and usually the news in
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the vibe is against whatever the trend is. In that very big biscuit,
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I'll buy it. But you know, it's just it's just a little curious
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seeing things the way they're going. Now, hey, so let's let's look
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at oil. Now, energy, we were thinking it was weak, but
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right now oil is trading eighty dollars a barrel, give or take. Yeah,
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I mean oil in the grand scheme of things, if you're at a
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zoom zoom way back to you know, two thousand and five, two thousand
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and four, where go way back there, oil has been oscillating really between
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like one hundred and one hundred and thirty five, you could say, down
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to about you know, thirty five dollars a barrel. It's been going back
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and forth in this massive range for a long time, for twenty years.
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Right now it is dead center in the middle of all of that sideways chop.
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So it is kind of in no man's land trying to figure out what
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it's going to do. I think really the whole space, the energy space,
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is kind of dormant right now. And if we take a look at
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the energy stocks, the energy stocks are actually trading up near near the highs.
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They actually have a very strong chart pattern, so based on oil trading
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in the middle of its range, but the energy stocks have a very strong
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bullish chart pattern. It's telling me we might see one more rally and push
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higher in crude oil over the next a few months going forward, maybe we're
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going to see a rally back up to around ninety four ninety five dollars a
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barrel. So there is some upside potential, but right now, in the
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grand scheme of things, it really is kind of in the middle of its
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range and no man's land without any really clear direction at this point. All
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right to that gas man was back under two bucks. Now it's over two
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bucks, but it looks like it's gonna lose steam. What's your thoughts.
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Yeah, natural gas goes in these massive, multi wave cycles. We had
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a cycle high in twenty twenty two. I think we're coming back down into
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a cycle low this year. It's usually a three to four four year cycle
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and it goes over. This goes back the last twenty and twenty five years,
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so we're definitely getting down into that over sold condition. It's very difficult
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though, for a trader investor to take advantage of oil, especially if you're
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trying to trade like the ETF or the stocks around it. There isn't an
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easy way to do it. But you look at natural gas, I mean,
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it is dirt cheap. It is down pretty almost as low as it
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has ever been, and you know, I don't think there's a whole lot
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more downside to it. But it's just difficult to play the upside because time
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is very difficult if you hold onto stock, so we go into if you
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hold natural gas stocks, we go into a recession or a correction. Those
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stocks are going to go down anyway. If you hold an ETF for natural
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gas they lose value pretty much daily, so over time, the longer you
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hold, the more you lose, even if natural gas slowly moves higher.
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So, as you always say, we always mention it's a whitto maker.
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It is very different alta trade natural gas, unless you're a futures trader.
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But that's a different game, different sport altogether. Yeah, those are people
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who actually know what they're doing, right, Yeah, supposedly then even then
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you'll find them hanging from trees on occasion. Okay, they've went into a
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busted trade and didn't have the good sense to get out of it. But
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seriously, so I know you don't do a heck of a lot on crypto.
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You got any opinions on what's happening with bitcoin? Well, I mean
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bitcoin's on fire, screaming to the upside, on the verge of hitting new
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all time highs. You know, this is one of those things where to
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me kind of confirms we're in this kind of a little bit of that feeding
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frenzy. People are piling into small cap growth stocks very very like the r
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ETFs, and they're piling into bitcoin. To me, it's a very similar
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type of mentality, similar type of trade. People chasing the money, trying
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to make a lot fast and the fast moving assets. Several months ago,
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I was talking about how I'd love to see this stock market like the SP
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five hundred kit new all time highs. That will that will spark a lot
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of people to come back into the stock market who were scared to get in
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last year. They missed out on the big rally. They didn't get in
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this year until we hit new highs and then they're like, well I got
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to get in. I'm missing out on the rally. So right now,
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to me, the stock market is sucking in everybody who isn't in or not
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involved in the markets. I'm seeing people who are literally buying nvidious stocks their
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first stocks ever on their phones. All these things are telling me we're getting
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into that last you for rally in the market. It's sucking all the last
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people in who aren't in, and they're going to probably end up buying a
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lot of things at the high. So you know, last time we saw
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bitcoin get up to these levels twice in the past, we did see a
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correction of over fifty percent both times, so it'll be interesting to see where
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we go. This is a parabolic move straight up, and generally when something
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goes straight up, in my opinion, it comes straight back down at least
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for half of that move, which could bring it right back down to the
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forty five one thousand dollars mark. If we have a bit of a hiccup.
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Interesting. Interesting, Well, time will tell. And you know,
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it's just kind of fascinating to see the whole thing unwined here. Interest rates.
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What are you see in here? Yeah, the interest rate market.
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I think rates are going to I think they're going to hold up for quite
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a while. I mean, I think they're going to drag out longer than
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people think. A lot of people have been trying to front run the rates
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going down, huge, huge volume in the bond market in terms of like
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TLT the long term bond ETF. I've talked to a lot of different advisors
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who are told by their their senior management, you know, get your get
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your investors into bonds. It's just a matter of time before they turn around.
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And so we've seen everybody pile into them and you can see it in
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the volume, and I think that everybody's trying to front run it and get
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in early. To me, it means there's a lot more time to go.
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I think the rates could trade sideways for another who knows, maybe another
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year in change. So if people are trying to front run that, they're
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gonna have a lot of dead money. It's not going to go anywhere if
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they're playing the bond market, and all that money is going to sit there
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and waste time when it could go into a different asset class that is moving.
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And one of the biggest drawdowns for people who are, you know,
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trying to front run the markets or the buy and hold is when there is
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no action, when you're holding something not going anywhere, the biggest cost you
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can have is a waste of time, and we don't get time back.
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We can always make money back, but we can't get time back. So
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to have your money locked up in a different asset class because you think the
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rates are high and they're going to come back down is a great way to
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waste a year's worth of returns or more. And you could actually make a
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lot if you were to not just kind of try to guess when things are
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going to turn around. Interest rates very slow, moving beast, real estate
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very slow. People do all kinds of stuff thinking it's going to be quick
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and easy to make money and it drags out for years when they could have
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done something else. So I think rates are going to be up in this
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range as nosebleed section for a little while, which really is just normal average
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rate, but it seems expensive because people got so overleveraged and buying homes and
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different things at a cheap rate. Yeah, it's an interesting world tho out
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there for sure. Any other markets we should be paying attention to here,
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Chris, I mean, I really think you just need to be along the
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the equities market. To me, it's a very simple, straightforward play.
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I think owning physical gold is a very conservative with some good upside potential.
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I mean, gold could rally about twenty twenty five percent in the next few
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months, which for gold is a huge move, and to me, it's
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a low risk play with quite a bit of upside potential. So that's that's
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kind of where we're positioned right now, is in those type of plays.
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All right, Hey, we appreciate the update and the markets and always look
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forward to speaking with you getting your opinions on things. From a trader's perspective,
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it's very important to be able to track these things and have an understanding
20:42
of long term versus trading opportunities short term opportunities. In any event, make
20:48
sure you go over to Chris's site, The Technical Traders dot com, sign
20:52
up for your introductory news letter subscription, and if you've got a question for
20:57
Chris or myself in the meantime, shoot me an email kl at Carrie LEDs
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dot com. And while you're there at the site Financial Survival Network dot com,
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sign up for your free newsletter. Chris, we'll be talking to you
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again real soon. Thanks, Thanks Carrie, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's
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Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
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