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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the Podcast, presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: We are live from our.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Midtown Manhattan studios, the Tommy John Studio at Action Network HQ.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my cos my companion, my
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: campadre might b FF, Simon Hunter l Osimon.
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: We made a brother, we made it.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: We get to see each other face to face.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Last night, you and I went to dinner together and
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: we talked about all the things that bff's talk about
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: when they're at dinner together. Most importantly, are we overinvested
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: in the Carolina Panthers?
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Have we made a mistake on the Giants?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Can you convince me to actually bet the Bears instead
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: of the Titans.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: We are going to get to all of it.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week one Best Bets episode. Simon
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: or nine narrowed down our five picks and the Favorites
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: presented by BET three six five. Don't forget you can
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: still sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. On
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: today's show, as we will do every Thursday this season.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We'll do sharp calls, our big balls, bet of the week,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: the underdog, moneyline, parlay Survivor, pool picks, Simon's biggest bets.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Our director of Research, Evan Abrams, will join us, and
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: so much more. But first, as a reminder, the Favorites
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three six five and this
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: just in new Bet three sixty five customers now get
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Sign up using promo code.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Favorites, deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: And more.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: five must be twenty one. We're older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditioning
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply once again. If you want to sign up
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: for the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Them contest, free to play five picks every single week
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: season long. If you want to get in before week one,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: now is the time to do it.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: You will have.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Chances to get in over the next couple of weeks
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: because we drop a couple of scores, but now is
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the time to get in if you want to have
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the full slate for the next eighteen weeks. That's all
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the way into the new year.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Folks.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Don't get left behind. It's totally free to play. Like
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: I said, just five picks against it spread every single week.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Over one hundred grand in cash prizes up for grabs.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: You will be competing against me and Simon the picks
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that we talk about on this show. What we narrow
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it down to that is what will end up in
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: the contest. First place in this contest takes home forty
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: grand every single week. The first place finisher, the person
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: who has the best record during the week, gets one
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars. If they nail the tiebreaker exactly, that one
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: thousand grows to two thousand. We did hear people have
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: problems signing for the contest. We've gotten through that. Go
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: sign up now. Favorites dot actionnetwork, dot com. All right,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: as always, we like to hear how the wise guys
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: are as a podcast, Simon. The lines move based on
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: our conversations. It happen on Tuesday. We've seen it happen
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: over the last forty eight hours. The pros also feel
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: compelled the our own little sort of Roman senate, telling
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: us constantly what they think of our opinions. All right, Simon,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: let's go to some sharp calls. Just give me the
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: highlights here. What games have the guy said, we're right
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: and we're wrong. Before we dive in a little bit deeper.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: let's start with they hated Chad, because that's that's really
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: what people want to know. What the what are the
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: pros hate that we picked off the top? They hate
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: our lions pick they do. Yeah, they think we're walking
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: into it, and I disagree. I think this sets up
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: nice for this Detroit team at home in the scenario.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I think I love that they hate it because we're
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: going to come back around and it.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Raises the stakes.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, a little bit on this bet for later in Well,
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: I just said to them it's brutal because it's the
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: only favorite. Mean you agreed on really, so you are okay?
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: That was one off the top. The number two is
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: a game you like. I know our guy Chris Raybaund likes.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: They all like Tennessee. They keep throwing that stat in
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: my face, right, number one pick? Overall? What are they owe?
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: Fourteen and one in the last fifteen starts against the spread.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: We'll get into that game because they got a lot
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: of opinions on the Chicago game, but I haven't budget
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: on that. I still love Chicago, so it's not shocking
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: to here. They love the Titans so much. The Detroit
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: one shocked me more the fact they love the Rams
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: so much, but this one didn't. For the last one
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: that they think we got wrong, Chad, I can't believe
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: it. It's the Giants they like. They like the Vikings. So
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: that's another one we're going to dive into. I just
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: don't think people understand that this Giants team isn't as
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: bad as they perceive. And that's what I'm trying to
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: get into people's heads here. That's why I try to
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: get to their heads. Man, I thought that was gonna
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: be the pros verse shows. I thought the public would
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: be on the Vikings, the pros would be on the Giants.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: It's honestly split right in the middle of I've talked
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: to pros you like our side, and pros you really
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: hate that bet we have made. So that's off the
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: top for the ones they love. I think a couple
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: of the ones we knew they were gonna love, right,
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: the Panthers, that's a pros game. We knew the pros
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: would love that. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's a little
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: bit of the public game as well. The public has
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: come around on this Panthers team. It is, but again
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: I think it's because of the number. Right. We've seen
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: the four and a half now drop down to four
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: three and a half in a couple of books. So
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: to me, again that makes sense. The pros like the number.
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think we played the same as that three
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: and a half as we would at four and a half,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: So to me, that's the big difference there. And the
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: last one is the Jets like the pros love the
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: Jets like the forty nine ers. They've had so much turmoil,
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: it makes sense why the public would be on the
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: Jets as well. And then you throw into the trends
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: all the numbers you want to be on the Jets
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: of four and a half. Even though even I get
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: the fear because there's been a lot of buyback on
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, I think it's just because it's
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: the money night game, right guys, we talk all the time.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: People are gonna have their parlays, all their teasers tied
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: to this forty Niners team. So I'm not too shocked
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: the number's gone up. It's it's holding now four and
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: a half. Now, if me and you come into our
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: show Sunday night and then numbers up to six, I'm
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: gonna be scared because that's some big professional money coming
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: in on the fortnes But right now, to me, it's
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: business as usual. So as far as you guys for
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: sharp calls, we got a couple of picks they hate
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: chat and a couple of picks they love.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, it's good because it also allows us to dig
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: in a little bit deeper on some of these games.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: The Giants game in particular the Lions game.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I know we talked about what are big balls bet
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: of the week presented by time of John by the way,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: but what it might be before the show.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we need to call an audible. I'm
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: gonna call the audible based on the sharp calls.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, when we get to it, all right, So listen,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Simon and I discussed on Tuesday that you know, early
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: end of the season, we lean into these trends a
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: bit more than normal because we don't know a ton
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: about these teams yet, Like quarterbacks aren't playing a lot
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: during the regulars during the preseason, so it's hard to
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: judge the real tendencies of these teams at this point.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So we can't play spots, we can't take advantage of
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of mispricing.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: All of that is just harder in weeks one and
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: week two. So there are a couple trends.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: There's about three trends that I just want to highlight
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: right now if I refer back to them during the
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: show when I say this team follows the trends, it's
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: these trends just so I don't have to repeat them
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: every single time. Number one, again, all from the brilliant
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: mind of our director of research, Evan Abrams. Underdogs between
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: one and five and a half points in Week one
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: cover at a sixty four percent clip since twenty eighteen
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: to sample size of nearly one hundred and fifty games.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: By the way, they're also fifty eight percent over the
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: past decade. Really good trend for underdogs in that one
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. Ranch favorites of one to
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: three and a half points cover only forty three of
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the time in September based off of sample size and
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: more than five hundred and fifty games. Road dogs who
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: missed the playoffs the year before fifty eight percent against
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. A lot of games
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: that fit into all these trends, plus some divisional stuff
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about. Look, the first game
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: that is sort of on the edge of our top five,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in Atlanta. Atlanta is a three point favorite. We've
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: been holding out hoping to get three and a half.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: It's one of the few games that hasn't moved a
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: lot of games have. The juice is on the minus
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: three at minus one twenty, so it could go to
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: three and a half. They're asking us to pay the
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: price to get the three. I just think it's like,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the more I think about this game, so hard not
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to back the Steelers here right It is like one
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: of those bets that did not get a lot of
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: my attention in the last until the past forty eight hours.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I'd even make it a candidate for underdog parlay, which
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get to.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe it won't get there, but look the stats I
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: ticked off at the top of the show. Irrelevant.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin the best underdog coach against the spread the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: past twenty years.
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: all the time, Like, that's what the hell we paid
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: to do?
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Is gonna make our final five? Do we like Pittsburgh
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: right now?
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: We like Pittsburgh. You said, there's a lot of books
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: out there that have this at three and a half.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: The book we're working with as it at three. Are
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: we really going to force it in at a two
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: and a half at a bad number when there's three
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: and a halfs out there?
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Good point?
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: No, Like that's just something we never do. So we
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: like this number. This is another game though the pros
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: are split on. I think there's some professionals that really
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: love this Atlanta team. They got them pegged as eleven
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: twelve win team, a top seed in the NFC, and this,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: to them is a game that kind of sets that
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: benchmark because Alanta does have some tough games here early
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: in the slate. So looking at this matchup, I think
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: me and Chat said what we need to say about
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: this one, where it's like we like the coaching matchup
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: better for Pittsburgh. We like Pittsburgh's defense much more than
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: we trust Atlanta's offense, especially again, Kirk Cousins first game
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: after coming off this injury. You know, Achilles is a
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: big deal, especially if someone that's putting all their power
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: and their weight onto that back keel every time they
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: push off. Every throw he makes is on that back heel.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: So my hesitation for Atlanta is valid. The numbers though,
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: that's what we're playing here. Like three and a half.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: I love Pittsburgh. If if it's two and a half,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: there's no chance, there's no chance out of anything about.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: Prose in the contest, We're not going to play it
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: a two and a half.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: But three and a half. I bet Pittsburgh every day, and.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It's very possible that if we wait because the contest plays.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: We can go until Sunday and the lines are dynamic.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: The Steelers get to three and a half. And if
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I've got the Steelers at three and a half on
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the road with Mike Tomlin against a coach who is
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: not a rookie head coach and Rhuemorris but is new
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: with this team, and Kirk Cousins coughing off in.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Achilles, and like TJ.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Watt on the edge against Kirk Cousins off in Achilles,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that will be a very hard game.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: You ain't know to us no more now, you know
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: what I mean? And they just they just paid Cam Heyward,
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: Like it's yeah, that defense for Pittsburgh, I mean we
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: can make fun of their offense that is incredible, Like
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: they just got skills across every every line. The secondary
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: is incredible. So's that's our real big hesitation, right we
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: want to play this one. There's the numbers not there
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: for us right now?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: All right, Jags in Miami Dolphins three and a half.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: We had been on monsoon watch for this game. It
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: looks like the weather is going to be clear. The
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: line has moved in Miami's direction the past forty hours.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know why. I don't know if you have
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: any insights there weather.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: If it's gonna be good weather, that definitely favors Miami.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: But if that doesn't make any sense, because you can't
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: logically look at these teams and say, all of a sudden,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Miami is a field goal better. You only have to
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: look at the first eight weeks of the Jaguars last year,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: and no, this was a team that was going to
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: win their division if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: And I think, honestly, that's why we like this number
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: so much. It feels like too much respect is being
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: paid to Miami what they did last year, how dominant
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: and great they were at home. And another thing you
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: could throw in we didn't even talk about it is
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: they struggled against good teams, right, Like I think there
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: were one and seven last year against playoff teams. Yeah,
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: the Jaguars run a playoff team. Last year. We just
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: said it. They were gonna be a good team. They're
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: a really good team. Like if they didn't have injuries
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: and they didn't fall off the cliff, they would have
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: been in the playoffs last year. So I'm going to
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: complete agreeance to chat here. It's just the hate for
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: the Jaguars has gone too far, and a game of
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: week both expect will be a shootout. I love the
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: Jaguars to stay in this game, like everything they do.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: I never feel like, even if they're down ten, it
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: feels like me Chad will get that back towards the
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: end of the game. So to me, the key number
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: three and a half, I'm right there with you, Chad.
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: I would not be shocked this is one of our five.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting to me if you look at
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins, no Ramsey, Jaylen Ramsey, no Chubb on the edge,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Christian Wilkins is gone, their defense has no real game changers.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: We have Trevor Lawrence to twenty two to one to
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: lead the league in passing yards, Like we believe in
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: this Jaguars team, probably a lot more obviously than them.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: It does. Man, I'm putting them on the list.
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: Them on the list, just like I'm.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Not saying they're going to be in the finals. But
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: it's really hard not to consider.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: It's a really nice number with how much we like them.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Our foxhold bet on Tuesday was Vike's.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: At Giants Giants plus one and a half. We've been
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: talking about the Giants plus one and a half since
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the off season when these lines first posted. We have
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: planted a flag in the sand. We have pushed our
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: chips in the middle of the table. Like I said,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: you and I had dinner last night, we're talking about
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: all these games. This morning, before I came in, I
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: listened to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: They do their Sunday six pack, which I love. I
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: like to listen to them because I like to see like,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: are they are we on the same side of some
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: of their games? And we were on the same side
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: of a lot of the games.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: They love the vikings here. Yeah, you've mentioned this.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: From sharp calls, like in every way we are invested
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: in the Giants on this one now, I feel like
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: we're really in a foxhole. We're against Ducky and Rayvaon
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: and we're against the wise guys. Are you gonna have
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to talk me off a wedge?
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: No, because I think they're painting as if it's a
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: perfect world. Where I get it, the Giants secondary is
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: where you can attack them. What's the strength of this
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: Vie can see their wideouts right, But it's Sam Donald
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it is Sam Darnald
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: And like, to me, there's a bunch of things where, yeah,
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: maybe chat when we're down fourteen to three in the
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: first quarter, I'm gonna feel like an idiot because it's like,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: why did we back this team? But I just can't
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: see a plane out that way, Like, I just think
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Davo's gonna have this team so prepared. This Giants team,
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: like everything I've read and seen this team. Daniel Jones
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: has kind of gotten off those early seasons coming back
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: from big injury. Right, he did not look right for
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: the first two weeks of camp, but I totally agree
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: with those people. These last three weeks, he's really put
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: together a lot of a lot of good camps to
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: get practices. Then you mix in. I don't think these
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: enough people are a factor in neighbors, Like he's never
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: had a neighbors. Like, as much as we want to
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: praise Saquon Barkley, do running backs move the needle? Chad?
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Not for us. Like, if it's a running back going
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: to do a great team like McCaffrey, that's a big
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: deal to me and you like we always talk about
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: how big of a deal that was that Carolina trade
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: other scenarios, It doesn't really make that big if you're
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: a bad team. Their running backs not the key. Like,
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: you need a got on the outside that can win
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: one on ones, and I think Neighbors is that guy
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: for this team. Again, Marvin Harrison Junior was not in
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: this draft, Chad, he would have been a number one receiver,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: easily would have been a top five pick. Most likely.
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: This kid is that gifted. So to me, I still
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: think not all lough Love's being paid to this Giants team.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: The only hesitation for me is their defensive corner who
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: we respected a lot. He left and went to Ohio State, right,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: so that means their defense is gonna be a little
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: different this year. They bad at pieces Like to me,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: their linebacking corps is really good. The fact they brought
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: in Burns to try to stify someone on the outside
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: because again already know inside they're great inside the detackled position.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: They have one of the best attacks on football, So
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: you know, to me, it just keeps adding up to
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: This Giants team got the six wins last year with
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito and good coaching. Now they have a better
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: rush than they've had in David's whole career there, and
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: people are selling them. They're just totally out on this team,
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: and we're getting them as a home dog against Sam
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Darnod on the road, a guy who is I don't
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: remember if I have. I think Evan Sady's four and
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: ten is a favorite. So it's like it's just all
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: adding up. We like the trends, we like the team,
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: we like the matchup. I think the hate, the public perception,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: the hate on the Giants has gone too far, and
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: that's where we're getting such a good number on this
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: where you know, if this was late in the season,
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: there's no chance the Giants would be an underdog in
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: the spot. I think it's just really public public perceptions
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: really dictating this iron now. And like I said, you
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: said it too, there's pros on both sides here. So
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: this is definitely a standoff between the professionals on this
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: side where the public probably is not having to bet
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: this game because it's just when you look at the board,
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: they want nothing to do with this one. And so
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: these are the kind of games I love because this
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: really sets up both these teams for the season. People's
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: opinions on both teams.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I feel like this also answers so many debates two
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: years ago. Day Ball and Kevin O'Connell are rookie head coaches. Right,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: they both have the kind of years they were one
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: and two in one score games. It was just a miracle.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Every single week one of them was winning a one
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: score game. They get to the playoffs. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Brian Dayball, Kevin O'Connell and the Giants beat the Vikings
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: at home. Right, Dayball wins Coach of the Year. He's
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: getting all the accolades. Like you said, like the pendulum
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: has swung so much. I feel like this is a
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: really interesting coaching definition game because of what we saw.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Like I have wondered for the past season that Kevin
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: O'Connell not get enough credit and you're always.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Like he lost at home in the playoffs to the
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: guy that we're saying is terrible, it deserves more credit.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: So now both teams stink, both qbs are suspect. We
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: get a chance to see who deserves any hype as
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: a coach. I think this is a huge, huge game
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: for the trajectory of both of their coaching careers. You
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: talk me back into the house. Yeah, I was on
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the ledge. I feel much more confident now it is
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: our foxhole. I am hyper invested in the Vikings. At
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: fifteen to one to have the worst record in the NFL,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I would very much like to kick it off with
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: a positive way. All right, Carolina at New Orleans. This
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: number is at four. This was my exec decision. The
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Panthers may be the closest thing we have to a
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: consensus pick for the over this season. According to everybody
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: at the Action Network.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, win totals.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: We have expectation busting bets on the Carolina Panthers right now.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: They've upgraded the offensive line at both cars a wide receiver,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: they've upgraded at coaching. All of the trends that I
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: mentioned at the top are applicable here.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: One more I'll add for you.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: NFL Division underdogs thirty seven fifteen and one against the
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: spread seventy one percent in week one since twenty fourteen,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: covering by nearly five points per game. Couldn't feel better
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: about this Carolina vent except for the fact everybody in
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the world is now on Carolina.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: Well, actually, if you look even in the Action app
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: the tickets are slanted towards the Saints, but it's the
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: money is overwhelmingly on the Panthers. Like that's we say
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: the time, that's professional.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: That's good, right, that's what we want.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: And I think that's why even now I just opened
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: up to two of the most public sports books out there,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: they're both they both have moved to three and a half,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: which is shocking, like the books that don't take professional money. Somehow,
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: we're at three and a half. So it does show
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: the public yuck. You just said they are starting to
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: come in on this Panthers team. But like I said
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: to I think it's just because of the number, Like
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: four and a half. I felt like it was way
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: too high. Three and a half feels honestly right like this,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: I have this number grade at three, So getting to
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: three and a half that sounds right to me. If
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: they got to three, I might be able to be
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: talking to taking the Saints because that's when the valley
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: does switch to them. But we're we're getting four and
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: a half right now in our contest, and you can
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: still get four and a half at a couple of
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: books out there. I know our sponsor a bet three
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: five is at four, but that's a good number, like
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: to me, this is going to be a closed game. Like,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: who do you think is gonna make the mistake here?
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I think it's the Saints. Like I have more faith
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: than Bryce Young playing smart, playing safe, protecting the ball
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: where Derek Carr he's looking over his shoulder already. He
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: knows that Spencer Ratler's coming for that job. And even
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: the fans, the Saints fans are pushing for this kid.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: So to me, I feel like Bryce Young is gonna
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: be playing free and care free in this new offense.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: And like, again, we already talked at NASA about it
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: during his new head coach. We love everything we've read
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: and heard coming out of the Panthers camp. The question
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: for us is their secondary. Like, at the end of
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: the day, they do have one of the worst secondaries
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: of football people. And I understand why you're like, well,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: that's why I'm taking a love is over and that's
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: why I kind of like the Saints sustaining this game.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: But do you like them at this number? That's my
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: question of people. It's like, in this divisional game, how
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: do you not take the Panthers that are basically equals
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: with this Saints team. I know they don't look that
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: way because the win totals and the pup perception from
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: last year. But to me, starting fresh with a brand
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: new season, this isn't last year, right, This isn't this
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: terrible bums we bet last year in this Panthers team.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: This is a new Panthers team with a new identity,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: whole new coaching staff. So yeah, to me, we're banking
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: on a big Bryce Shung bounce back this season. It's
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: got to start here, like if this guy's gonna wins
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: our divisional bet, Chad, he's got to win this week
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: one game. So again, we're gonna get into our money
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: line around robin bet later on. This is probably gonna
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: sneak in there for this money line a round robin. Yeah.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: I think look, when we talk about the Panthers and
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the reason why everybody action is so all over the Panthers,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: partially because of their luck factors last year and all
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the games that they lost, they were in a position
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: to win because of bad coaching, unlucky turnovers, things that
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: just happened that over the course of time regress back
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: for them in a good way. You mentioned Dave Canalis,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: people who don't understand when Gino Smith went from sort
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: of me, you know, wandering quarterback, journeyman quarterback to pro bowler.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: It was because Dave Canallis was his coach. Last season
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman quarterback
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: to Bucks in the playoffs, Dave Canalis was his coach.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: So we're all investing a lot in a regression to
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the mean for their luck. We're investing a lot in
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: what Dave Canallice can do as a coach. We're investing
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: in improvements on the offensive line. We're investing in Bryce
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Young being a little bit better. We're also fading in
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: a big way. What you just said, Dennis Allen, Derek
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Carr truly at the bottom of their respective rankings when
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: it comes to coaches and quarterbacks against the spread during
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: their time in the league. I mean, these guys are
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: awful at this. And you mentioned Derek Carr already looking
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: over his shoulder. There was a study of a survey
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: the fan base with the least amount of optimism is
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints very possible Spencer Rattler is starting
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: a quarterback for the Saints with a different coach. By
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the time we're talking about this, team four weeks from now.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I believe it before Halloween for sure. All right, Arizona Buffalo.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I don't feel like we want to put this one in.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: No skip it.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: I will say that we didn't even talk about sharp calls,
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: but that was definitely one where if you're a fan
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: of the show and you listened to us back in May,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: I love the Bills. I thought we were getting a
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: good night. One of the Bills basically got a bunch
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: of sharp calls bullied me to getting off my position
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: on that, moving towards Arizona, which people know if they
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: listen all summer, I do love Arizona. There's too many
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: questions here, Chad. There's too many questions, and I don't
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: like how the number has been moving. It went from
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: five and a half up to six and a half.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Now people are saying, well, if you like the Cardinals,
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: why don't you just wait and hope to get a seven.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: Because I told you guys on Tuesday show, this will
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: be one of the biggest teas teams. The Bills will
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: be in a lot of teasers, just like I said,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: Seattle and Cincinnati, Well, this is just they fit the profile, right,
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: So I'm happy with waiting seeing right, we want to
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: see the connection with with Kyler and Marvin Harris. So
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: you know, I got no issue sitting this one out,
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: but I'm with you. It's it's a game where I
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: didn't think we'd have it as one of our five,
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: and how as the days have gone along here, it's
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: just like, you know what, why don't we just say
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: it and wait and see? On that one?
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Dude? You know it's Marvin Harrison, right.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know the whole joke right now. You'd never
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: say the man's name. Why, Well, I can tell you why.
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: But there's a reason you never say that man's name
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: like Voldemort.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know the joke. And now I know what.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: I don't eve want to press Philly, you don't know.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: I don't want to lie. I think I know where
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: this is going.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Having done some stories on Marvin Harrison, I don't want
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: to give Matt Mitchell anything. He's got to cut out
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Houston and Indy. This was our Simon says. It's now
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: at three at bet three six y five, so it's
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: ticked up.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: This is public money. I think this is a game
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: that's going to go higher.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: We are investing in something that we believe in, not
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: something we've seen with Anthony Richardson, but that divisional dog
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: trend that I mentioned earlier in the show that is
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: in play here, the same one that the Panthers have
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the advantage over the Saints the dogs between one and
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: five and a half.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: That's a check.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Fading the short favorite on the road especially, that's a check.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe wait until Sunday to say if
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: we can get a better number, but like obviously we're
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: going to go with the culture contest.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind taking the two and a half.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: But I think me and you joked last night about it,
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: right where you were saying, what's your hesitation here? I said,
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: the kids made seventeen starts since high school. Like Anthony Richardson,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: he doesn't have the reps. That's the fear, and that's
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: why I understand why public the public is coming in
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: so heavy on Houston alsto. You mix in the fact
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: the Colts have won what one game and the Week
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: one in like ten years. I mean, they're one of
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: the worst teams historically in this Week one, and that's
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: people playing the trends right. They're just back on their
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: trends there. What really signaled to me, Chad was his
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: tweet I saw yesterday. Bookmakers say they have four times
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: the amount of money right now on Houston. Then they
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: have colts that this will literally dictate this one game
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: will dictate their entire Sunday compared to any other game.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: If you listen to the show long enough. This is
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: where I want to be. I want to be with
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: the books. Even if this doesn't doesn't hit. This is
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: a long term winner the book. Like we say all
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: the time, there's a reason all those hotels exist in
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: Atlantic City in Las Vegas, right the book's long term.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: They're gonna win these ones. So to me, when I
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: hear bookmakers saying they have four times the amount of
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: money on Houston than they do on any other side,
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: oh my god, it feels so good. Like that's why
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: I'm so happy we got the three now. Even in
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: our contest, if it's two and a half, I have
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: no hesitation.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Oh see, I was going to say to you in
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: the contest, do we feel strongly enough at two and
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: a half?
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: I do, okay, because like all of a sudden, well
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: this number is not layding on three. Well, I'm just saying, like, all.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Of a sudden, it could be we're faced with an
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: option of Jags at three and a half or Colts
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: at two and a half.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: Honestly, I would go Colts there.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: The closest one I am to being bullied and taken
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: out of is that Giants game we talked about just
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: because of respect that half for all these other professionals,
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: where it's like I get their hesitation with it, I'm
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: kind of digging my heels in on that one, where
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: this one it's not so much. I'm just playing the
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: numbers right like this This one is purely I feel
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: like this game should be one. Houston should be fair
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: by one. Maybe I had to pick. The number has
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: just grown too much. There's just been too much going
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: on for this summer.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: I have no problem taking the Vikings Giants game out
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: of our five and not having to sweat that on
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. Or you know, like we got so many
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: other games we like and this one we're getting so
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: many conflicting signals. I kind of want to skip Denver Seattle.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna make our I don't think
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: And especially i've seen a lot of books already shifted
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: up to the six. For us, I was hoping this
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: would drop down to five and a half. Maybe we
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: would get lucky into professional money with coming on Denver.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: They're the same view as us. It's a rookie bone
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: Knicks on the road against the twelfth man and what
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: we've perceived one of the better defensive minds of football,
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: so that that money is never gonna shift. This number
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: is what it is, right It's kind of stuck where
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: it's at. So I'm agreen swe I just can't be
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: this being our one favorite.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: We put in Washington at Tampa Tampa three and a
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: half right now, this one, like all the trends are
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: sort of leaning in the direction we want them to.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: And I've talked about the luck rankings earlier. The luck
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: rankings are in my head a little bit like I
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: know everything about rookie QBS and Jayden Daniels and sort
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: of the trends against betting that. But Baker is fourteen
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: and twenty six as a favorite, Todd Bowles is seven
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: and fourteen is a favorite.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Of three or more.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: We have talked about the Panthers a lot because of
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings at the opposite end of that. One
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: of the luckier teams last year was the Bucks. We
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: are fading the Bucks. We like their season win total
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: under I know Nick Giffen has been saying two fans,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: go find a Bucks to finish last in the NFC
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: South bet. I don't want to put this in the contest,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: but I feel obligated to at least finish the conversation.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I have no read on this one, honestly. Okay,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: my god, this is the game where I bet props.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: I bet Mike Evans over receiving and props. Just because
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: we talked about bad second arys. Washington is another team
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: that has a home horrible secondary. So I'm looking forward
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: to just watching Jaden and Daniels. I didn't want to
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: put too much money this one because Chad's right, Like,
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: in my soul, I wanted to bet Baker, especially when
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: this touch three. This was at three almost all that
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: yesterday at a couple of books. That's as where I
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: wanted to be at. I wanted to take Baker at three.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: Now this up to three and a half. Yeah, of course,
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: the better of me is like, why don't you just
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: take the three and a half with Jayden Daniels like this.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: This feels like a coin flip game. I just can't
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: do it. I can't pull that you're going. There's just
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: too many unknowns for me.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Chad Good.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Now we're narrowing it down. If you are in the
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: production room, listen to me. Come to camera one because
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: guess what it is Time for the big.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: Balls Better the Week.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. That's right, our big Balls bet
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: of the Week is presented by our newest sponsor, Tommy John. Listen,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: you guys who listened to the first show. You know
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: how much I love Tommy John. I was trying to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: think of a way before I came in this morning
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: how to describe how much I love Tommy John. And
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: I start to think about like affordable luxury. These are
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: things that just make you feel good, that are completely affordable.
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• 32:41
  Speaker 1: talked way too much about my underwear last episode. But
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  Speaker 1: guess what, I don't care. If you love Simon and I.
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  Speaker 1: at Tommy John dot com slash favorites, which means Simon
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Tommy John has just told us it's time for the
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: big Balls bet of the week.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: We were gonna make it.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: A different game, and then I just called an audible
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: because it feels like we are dug in on the
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Lions and the wise guys like the Rams, Like we
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: say these about trends, right, we like these trends when
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: they're fifty eight percent, sixty percent, seventy one percent.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: We're talking about divisional games.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: But that also means that like five and a half
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: out of ten, four out of ten, you're gonna lose
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: that bet. Also, I feel like we're trying to thread
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: the needle with this Lions team here, and look like
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: this this could go to four. So I think if
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: people want to get it, they got to get it now.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Because the juice is on three and a half minus
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: one twenty, but there's more money on the Lions. I
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: would have no problem putting in the contest. If we
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: are looking to put in a favorite. The Lions have
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the best three year stretch against the spread since the
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Patriots in that twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen range. Jared
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Goff twenty five and nine against the spread indoors, Jared
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Goff undefeated against the spread as a starter during his career.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Like we do have concerns about the Rams defense without
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, we love the Lions foundationally, offensive line, defensive line.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not afraid.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be to buy far our chalky
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: is bad, maybe even of this season like this. This
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: doesn't get more chalky than this. I talked to two
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: bookmakers yesterday. I asked them, what's your guys viewing this game?
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: How the numbers look in It's about two to three
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: times the amount of money right now is on the
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: lines than it is on the Rams. And that's right, No,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: because I view it as I'm not afraid we think
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: this n we're should be four to four and a half.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: It's three and a half, and we have questions right
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: now about the Rams. We have questions about the Rams
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: offensive line, We have questions what their identity is gonna
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: be without Aaron Donald and that young secondary. None of that,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: none of that at all with this this Detroit team.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: Maybe we do have some questions about the new pieces
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: they added to their secondary, but I just feel so
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: confident this offense and I think the argument will run
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: this ball down the Rams throat, Like that's where we're
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: gonna see the biggest difference of losing Aaron Donald what
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: he did in that middle, not just in pass rushing,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: but eating up two to three blockers on rushing. Like
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: this guy was just an animal, and you know, not
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: the everyday person realizes that, but this guy was really
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: that important to this team. So you know, the Gibbs
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: David Montgomery two headed horse we think Detroit has in
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: that backfield that's gonna set up Laporta and al'mond Saint
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: Brown Like that, to me is the big difference here.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: And we already talked about people know we love this
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: offensive line. Like the lines, I'd have to go back
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: and grade it, but I think they're either my second
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: or number one offensive line head into this season. It's
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: like this team is so complete. That's why we joked
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: like they should be the one seed in the NFC,
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: like it's all there for this.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: It's just hard to say that about the line.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: It's hard to say about the line here in Week
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: one at home. That doesn't worry in me at all.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: So don't think where the chalk is. We do Chalky
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: picks like this. This is just line up with us.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: Think like we're just saying that to new people.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Like we've asked people so far to bet on the Giants,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, the Colts. We're talking about Daniel Jones, Bryce Young,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson, who you said has played seventeen games. We
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: don't have to defend ourselves from making a smart Chalky
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: pick that is the right pick. You might have to
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: defend yourself for saying, like for not being afraid of
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: taking the lines, but being afraid to say, Marvin Harrison.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: Like you're playing fire. You don't even know.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: We'll see how it goes when we eventually do our
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: you know, live show.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. You're going to Philly.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: We're going.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: Don't think you know what you're.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Doing, right, We're going to Philly, all right? Last game
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: on the board. We want to talk about New York
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Jet at San Francisco. Look like, seriously, right, Trent Williams
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: effect this line was at three and a half, Trent
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Williams signs it goes up to four.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: Now it's at four and a half. Yeah, Like that
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: is rare for an.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Offensive lineman to have that much of an impact on
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: a point spread. That's the only reason this thing is moving.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Reminders since the two thousand Super Bowl, the Super since
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: two thousand season, the Super Bowl losers ten and fourteen
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: straight up, five and nineteen against the spread when they're
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: favored by over a field goal, four to nine against
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the spread. So like we like the Jets. We liked
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: him at three and a half, I like him at four.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I like him at four and a half.
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: Again, Jad, I hit you with that trend. That's the
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: big thing. But the biggest sticking point is for me
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: and Chad, we feel like this Jets team coming in
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: here is just being undervalued. And that's a simple fact
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: of Aaron Rodgers has not played football in a long time,
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: but when he has played, he's played really well. And again,
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: I know it's been two years, but this team mclee
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: all agree. This Jets team right here is probably better
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: than those Green Bay teams from back then. Like they
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: went out and they did improve this offensive line this offseason,
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: Like they did go out and get him a number
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: two receiver on Mike Williams, who is healthy for this game,
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: we perceive, but even if it's not, they've gone out
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: and got a rookie receiver. They went out and got
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: Lizard who I know people think that's a joke, but
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Lazarre has a rhythm and a repertoire with Rogers, which
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: is a big deal of these kind of games. So
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: the Trent Williams moving this by a point makes total
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: sense when he is the best left tackle in football,
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: so he should be moving this line like he did.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: But can we all agree, It's just it has not
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: felt right with this forty nine Ers team now things
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: that might have got corrected because they do have the
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: structure there right, They have a great front office. I mean,
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: people want to knock John Lynch for some of his
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: first round picks, doesn't really matter when he's nailing all
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: of his other late round picks. Like this guy for
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: all his bad you know, Trey Lance picks, He's got
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: Brock Purdy like this is a home run hit by him,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: this guy, So I do want to give him his
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: flowers and Jed York for stepping up and paying these guys,
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: which was just bizarro world, not just getting Ayuk or
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: him in the building. But I think we need appalized
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: earlier in the season of Trent William's missing camp, i
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Uk only being there for a week, Like, come on,
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: if there's gonna be a stumble for this forty nine
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: ers team in the season, it feels like it's gonna
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: year out of the gate, right like this is this
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: is kind of where it is. And you know, McCaffrey
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: didn't practice for a month. I know he is back now,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: but there's just a lot to pick at where the Jets.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, Aaron Rodgers went to Egypt and back
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: in May like that that's been the knock or Hassan Reddick,
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: a guy who's never being played on their team, never
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: showed up the camp. It doesn't matter.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: He hasn't played on the team and on a defensive
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: line that is one of the best defensive lines in
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: football already.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and obviously, yes, it'd be much better if he
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: was there. And they do have a depth issue on
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: that defensive line, but maybe you know just as good
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: linebacking corps. I mean, just because Navar Bowman is not
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: who he was because he's coming back off an injury.
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: It's like, there is a lot to love with this
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Jets team. So if we're just going matchup scheme wise,
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: they remind me a lot of what that Ravens team
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: was last year that gave so much trouble to this
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers offense. And that's really what I'm banking
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: on here. So another team, Chad that we debated about
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: putting our money line around Robin because we do love
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: the money line here. How do you not love the
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: four and a half right? This game feels like it
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: will come down to a field goal or a four
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: point finish, So love it that it's back up at
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: the four and a half. I know there's a couple
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: of books out there at three and a half. I
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: expect once one the public money keeps coming and this
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: will keep going up to four and a half in
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: most books.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: You mentioned our underdog money line parlay. We did ask
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: our sponsor Bet three six five to give us an
• 40:34
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• 40:39
  Speaker 1: and guess what, Because they love us and they love you,
• 40:43
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• 41:06
  Speaker 3: My Dog Blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog Blucks mot.
• 41:10
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• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young and the Panthers beating the Saints Anthony Richardson
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Shane Steich in Indianapolis, Colts beating the Texans in Indianapolis.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: The boosts will be featured on bet three six fives soon.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: The more listeners who bet these boosts, by the way,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: the more picks we can get boosted. Both games are
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: also eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite things they did last season.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Your moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: take a seventeen point lead, even if they go on
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: to blow the game. So this matters whether you're betting
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: an underdog or a favorite doesn't matter that team goes
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: up by say seventeen points, you win the bet.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: Definitely bet it at Bet three six five. I simon
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: Survivors the Survivor pool pick of the week.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle or Bengals. That's sort of where I'm landing. But
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: you got any thoughts.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: If you're in two survivor pools, split them up. Never
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: put all your eggs in one basket. Cincinnati is basically
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: the one everyone's gonna bank on to lose because they
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: figure everyone Joe Public's gonna pick them. But it's also
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: like this is a this is a nice time to
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: use Cincinnati, right the historically people are gonna keep pointing to, well,
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: they've struggled in Week one. Didn't we already talk about that, Chad.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: It's like Joe Burrow's never had an offseason, right. He
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: never every camp He's always either injured or he's missing
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: days in camp. This year, he never missed a day
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: in camp. He was there all all camp. The hesitation
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: with Chase I understand if this was an incredibly tough matchup.
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: So New England Patriots one of the worst teams we
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: perceive in all of football, with.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: You know, basically playing a backup quarterback.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: Yes, with a with an offensive line that we view
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: as one of the more suspect offensive lines in all football.
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: So I think we will have eventually have a time
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: where we'll start backing New England in these type of spots,
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: and we might even put them on our moneylane around Robin. Uh,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: this is not that spot right. So for me, if
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: you want to go really safe, I trust Cincinnati. If
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: you want to be a little different and use a
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: team that we don't know when else, we're going to
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: be able to use them just because their division is
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: so hard. I like Seattle. Like Seattle we already talked about.
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect right now for the
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: NFC West. I don't think the Cardinals will be all walkover,
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: which would be an easy pickt for Seattle and Survivor.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: So yeah, for our because we have to pick one
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: in our for our show. Do you just want to
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: go SINCEI? Or where do you want to go there?
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: Let's goin, let's go SINCEY. Yeah. So we're going the
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: most public pick for Survivor Week.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: One, and we're making a huge public bet on the Lions,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: which we are sure we'll get in our final five,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: which I'll review at the end of the show.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Signed.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: We got a couple more segments. Simon's biggest bets right now?
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Are you going to place a bet or what Giants?
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: The Giants are definitely up there. I would say the
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Colts and the Jets. I've just put the most in again.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: The Jets i'd been betting for the last month when
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: Him coming back and his reasonings were coming back. They're
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: very human, right. He saw his teammate almost lose his
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: life and it kind of put perspective for him and
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: he was just like, what am I doing here? Why
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: am I staying home over a couple of million where
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: I need to be with my guys. So getting him
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: of it. It's like I betted at four and a half.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: Now it's back up the four and a half. I
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: still love it at four and a half. Chad's right though,
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: like I really love the Giants the Panthers, right, I
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: started betting them and when they're at six, take me
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: a five and a half. I've taken them a four
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: and a half. If you're still late to the port
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: ay and there's a four out there, I don't mind
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: taking the four as well. So right now, those are
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: definitely my three biggest bets. I suspect come Sunday, I
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: probably will have a lot more on This line's team
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: is the weekly on along. I've just really loved them
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: and just how it lays out for their matchup against
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: this Rams team. So right now, those are definitely my
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: three biggest bets.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: All right, So now we got to new Scoot Roulette
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: for those who are new to the show, those.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Who we're bringing it back, We're bringing it back.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, who is a guy that I wrote about
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: in my best selling book called The Odds, about guys
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: who were betting on sports for a living. He was
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: the bookmaker at the start of the Hotel. He was
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: a longtime co host of this podcast with me when
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: I started it at ESPN, and then brought it over
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: when we launched Action. He and I used to play
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: a game every week on to one on one head
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: to head matchup. We called it scoot Roulette. Simon and
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: I have carried on that tradition Scoot Roulette.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: Simon.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: I will let you go first, give me the pick
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: you want to make. I feel like I know exactly
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: what it should be.
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: You don't. I'm gonna shock people just because we didn't
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: talk about this game and it's totally off board and
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Chad will never see it coming. I'm gonna go with
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: the homerk pick and take the Eagles at minus two Wow.
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: In the NFL International Series, favorites are thirty three, ten
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: and one straight up, twenty nine and fifteen sixty six
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: percent against the spread in international games. So give me
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: them Birds. Now that it's under three. I love I
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: love Green bead three. Now that I'm getting two to
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: two and a half with this Eagles team, I think
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: this will this will come down to a field goal.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I'll take the Eagles here.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Chad Millman, who proudly hails from Chicago here we Go,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: loves the city like no other, even though he hasn't
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: lived there in thirty something years.
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: Are you gonna tell us how there's no place like
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: Chicago in the summer.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: It's greatest city in the world. L this summer.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: I was just there about a month ago. It's the
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: freaking best. I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus five.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: Oh, God, there we go.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. It's time to bring in our buddy, Evan
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: before we get out of here. He is our director
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: of research. He's going to give us the final word
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: on a couple of things that we need to know.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: We're finished talking.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: What's up, fellas?
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: I got two things for you today and I'll start
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: with this only at the Action Network. Could we have
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: a game with this month's contention and it be Giants
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: and Vikings this weekend with all the great games we have.
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: But if you like the Giants, you probably do because
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: you have faith in Brian Dables. So Dable is sixty
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: three percent against the spread and his coaching career with
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: the Giants that is highest among all head coaches over
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: the last twenty years with a minimum of ten games coach.
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: And the greatest part about it, Dabel has had four
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: different starting quarterbacks. All four are above five hundred against
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: the spread with the team. Listen to this murderer's row,
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Danny DeVito, the trash is a
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: gold mine, and Davis Webb. Brian Dable does an incredible
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: job with whatever he has so in this situation getting
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: the point and a half, I can understand it.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: I'll give you one more on Dable.
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: So the Giants actually opened as a favorite and looks
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: like they're going to close as the underdog. That's already
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: happened to Dable six times in New York. He's covered
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: five of those six, so he kind of likes the number.
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: Maybe they lose by one and you get the hook here.
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: So I knew you guys liked the Giants. I had
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: to toss in there.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't have to worry about that. He keeps
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: his composure pretty simple.
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: Go out there and rip that sound bitch, and then
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: here's a great one. I found this literally last night.
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: I messaged Matt Mitchell. I tell him I can't believe
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: this is true. It's just really fun. So Derek Carr
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: has won fifty seven percent of his game straight up
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: as a favorite. Nothing crazy there in his career, about
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: what you'd expect when he plays as a favorite indoors
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: perfect conditions. He's actually only nine and thirteen straight up.
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: That's four games under five hundred in the last twenty years.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: Only one quarterback is four plus games under five hundred
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: as an indoor favorite. That is Derek's brother, David Carr,
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: who is zero and four straight up in that spot.
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: You come home, brother, So the Cars nine and seventeen
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: straight up. I know everyone's on Carolina. I just couldn't
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: believe it when I saw David's name, But the spot's there.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Everything he's telling us is giving me so much confidence.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: Oh, you're the best at it. I appreciate that.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: It's almost like I'm almost buoyed. I'm gonna walk out
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: of here on air. Thank you, Evan Simon. I feel
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: like we got I see seven games right now that
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: we've whittled it down that we want to choose from
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: the games that are still on my list. Steelers three
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: and a half, Jags three and a half, Giants one
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: and a half, Panthers plus four Colts.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: If we can get to three and.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: A half, probably two and a half, Lions three and
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: a half, Jets four and a half. So yeah, either
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: either we're getting rid of the Steelers and Jazz with
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: a late entrance.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: I definitely see the Steelers not making it right. I
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: just don't think we'll ever get that number we want,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: but that Jag one is tough, Like I want to
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: get that in.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: But yeah, after you hear from our guy Evan on
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: the Giants.
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: You gotta to probably that on my dead hands, Like
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: I'm so in on this Giants team. He's just he's
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: a great coach and people are just under rating them.
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's ridiculous how much hate this team's goetting.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: All right, So here's how this is going to go.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: For people who follow along and are playing in the contest.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Simon and I are going to put our picks in
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: the contest after the show preliminarily, and then we will
• 50:39
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• 50:42
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• 50:45
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• 50:48
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• 50:49
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• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Simon and I will put our picks into the app
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the Phase five feed. Follow that handle in the app
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: and you'll see what we areultimately end up with. But
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: we're probably going to put five in now just to
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: lock in some numbers and see how things change. As
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• 52:46
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