Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/27/26: Iran Vows Retaliation, Prof Pape On Negotiations, MAGA Texas Blowout & MORE!

Transcript

5/27/26: Iran Vows Retaliation, Prof Pape On Negotiations, MAGA Texas Blowout & MORE! · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 6: Yes, thanks for sticking with us. Everyone.
1:24
Speaker 5: All right, Ryan, Netanyahu and Trump had a phone call yesterday.
1:28
Speaker 5: We're going to break down the details incursions further into Lebanon.
1:32
Speaker 5: No surprise there, but we have some drone footage that
1:35
Speaker 5: we need to show you guys. Robert Pape is going
1:36
Speaker 5: to be joining us to break down some of these
1:38
Speaker 5: latest developments as well. Interesting actually developments in Gaza that
1:42
Speaker 5: we're going to be talking about. Man one of Donald
1:46
Speaker 5: Trump's economic advisors, Kevin Hassett, you've seen him before, is
1:51
Speaker 5: got grilled actually by Maria Bartiromo and consumer sentiment plummeting.
1:55
Speaker 5: We have video of his response. We're going to talk
1:58
Speaker 5: about the elections, as mentioned earlier. Interesting Ryan with Graham Plattner.
2:05
Speaker 5: We have a little bit of stuff to talk about
2:09
Speaker 5: with auckin cloths. We're going to have a guest in
2:11
Speaker 5: that block, somebody who's running a California as a Democrat,
2:15
Speaker 5: to walk us through how those dynamics or what we
2:18
Speaker 5: can glean from those dynamics.
2:20
Speaker 7: Yeah, we'll be talking to Randy Viegas, who has the
2:22
Speaker 7: endorsement of basically the entire kind of progressive world, including
2:28
Speaker 7: like Bernie Sanders, Progressive Caucus, all these running against the
2:32
Speaker 7: D Triple C backed candidates. Bans D Triple C is
2:35
Speaker 7: trying to put its thumb on the scale in a
2:37
Speaker 7: bunch of races in California is next week.
2:39
Speaker 5: Which, by the way, is what the NRSC did in Texas. Yeah,
2:42
Speaker 5: and so we have those details about PACSA in.
2:44
Speaker 4: The not great effect this race is are they burn
2:48
Speaker 4: eighty million?
2:49
Speaker 6: It's so much money? I thought it was.
2:51
Speaker 5: We'll look it up, but it was. I mean, that
2:55
Speaker 5: race is shaping have to be utterly insufferable. That's my take.
2:57
Speaker 5: But anyway, we'll have more on that. And Ryan, you
3:00
Speaker 5: have an interview that you're going to air on J
3:02
Speaker 5: Street yes yesterday.
3:05
Speaker 7: After yesterday's show, Crystal and I sat down for an
3:08
Speaker 7: hour with Jeremy Benhammy, the executive director of J Street,
3:13
Speaker 7: which describes itself as a quote pro piece, pro Israel organization,
3:18
Speaker 7: and we talked to him about the kind of uncomfortable
3:20
Speaker 7: place he sits in with the Israeli ambassador recently calling
3:24
Speaker 7: them a cancer and on the left calling you know,
3:27
Speaker 7: they frequently get called enablers of genocide, although even he
3:31
Speaker 7: now acknowledges what's happening is the genocide. So I found
3:35
Speaker 7: the conversation very interesting. I think people will too.
3:38
Speaker 5: All right, well, looking forward to it. Let's start with
3:40
Speaker 5: Trump and netsan Yahoo. We can throw this first element
3:43
Speaker 5: up on the screen a one. It's the Times of
3:45
Speaker 5: Israel headline netson Yahoo. Trump said talking after Security Cabinet
3:50
Speaker 5: meeting ends. So Prime Minister Benjamin na Yaho is speaking
3:53
Speaker 5: on the phone with US President Donald Trump. According to
3:55
Speaker 5: Hebrew media yesterday, they say in the Times of Israel,
3:58
Speaker 5: the report call comes after through the end of the
4:00
Speaker 5: Security Cabinet meeting, amid an intensified military campaign against Hesballah
4:05
Speaker 5: and Lebanon.
4:05
Speaker 6: We're going to talk more about that in just one moment.
4:07
Speaker 5: And as the US has reportedly barred Israel from striking
4:10
Speaker 5: be Route so as to not sabotage the US Iran talks,
4:16
Speaker 5: Ryan this also comes as yesterday A two Iran was
4:20
Speaker 5: threatening retaliatory retaliatory strikes after what the US said were
4:25
Speaker 5: defensive strikes. Help us understand a bit about what we
4:30
Speaker 5: know regarding the Stantaya who Trump call and the timing
4:33
Speaker 5: in the middle of all the.
4:36
Speaker 6: Uncertainty yesterday.
4:38
Speaker 7: Yeah, and Israel, and we can talk about this more.
4:40
Speaker 7: It has continued to strike beirute, despite Trump pushing him
4:45
Speaker 7: to what The Iranians are insisting that the war in
4:49
Speaker 7: Lebanon has to end as part of the as part
4:52
Speaker 7: of this broader war. The Israelis are insisting it absolutely
4:56
Speaker 7: will not. The reporting out of Iran is that the
4:59
Speaker 7: US has a effectively agreed we'll talk about this more
5:02
Speaker 7: with paye to a lot of the Iranian red lines,
5:06
Speaker 7: which is that you know, effectively they're not going to
5:08
Speaker 7: move the highly enriched uranium out of the country, but
5:11
Speaker 7: they'll kind of down blend it and destroy it instead,
5:14
Speaker 7: and that the US has told Iran we need time
5:17
Speaker 7: to manage This is what Jeremy was reporting yesterday. We
5:21
Speaker 7: need time to manage domestic the domestic politics, which good
5:25
Speaker 7: luck with that. It's gonna be it's gonna be hard,
5:26
Speaker 7: it's gonna be ugly. That takes some managing.
5:28
Speaker 5: That's that is really a reference to the nets Yahoo
5:32
Speaker 5: supporters in the United States.
5:33
Speaker 6: So this is where the call comes.
5:35
Speaker 7: In, right, yes, exactly, so, uh, Iran though it is like,
5:39
Speaker 7: you know, skeptical as always of US assurances, even though
5:44
Speaker 7: this is this is what they're saying. And then into
5:46
Speaker 7: this comes what you just mentioned. You had the US
5:51
Speaker 7: launch quote unquote defensive strikes against some what is what
5:57
Speaker 7: Iran says were civilian vessel what the US says were
6:02
Speaker 7: some you know, Iranian navy.
6:04
Speaker 6: Gunboats, land mines, right, was it?
6:06
Speaker 7: And you would think that Iran has to be telling
6:10
Speaker 7: the truth here because according to Trump, the entire Iranian
6:14
Speaker 7: navy is at the bottom of the sea. So why
6:16
Speaker 7: are we attacking a navy that he has already destroyed?
6:20
Speaker 7: Less it's possible that Trump wasn't telling the truth about that.
6:23
Speaker 6: Yes, one thing, I don't even.
6:26
Speaker 7: Want to entertain that possibility, but I know that would
6:29
Speaker 7: be people are saying that perhaps Trump exaggerated.
6:33
Speaker 6: More on the back and forth yesterday.
6:35
Speaker 5: This is again from the Times of Israel talks between
6:37
Speaker 5: the US and Iran on an initial agreement extending the
6:39
Speaker 5: ceasfine reopening the Strait of hor Moves will take several
6:41
Speaker 5: more days, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday,
6:46
Speaker 5: as Turan threatened retaliation overnight for US strikes, WHI would
6:48
Speaker 5: call the violation of the.
6:49
Speaker 6: Truce and a sign of quote bad faith.
6:53
Speaker 5: The US military characterized Monday night strikes in southern Iran
6:56
Speaker 5: as defensive, saying targets included missile launch sites and nine
7:00
Speaker 5: laying boats, and said the US acted with quote restraint
7:03
Speaker 5: in light of the week's long ceasefire. Speaking to reporters
7:06
Speaker 5: after the strikes, Rubio said, there's quote a lot of
7:09
Speaker 5: talking back and forth going on about specific language in
7:12
Speaker 5: the initial document. He says it'll take a few days,
7:15
Speaker 5: and then added the straits need to be open, unimpeded
7:20
Speaker 5: without tolls. Now, Mark Levin, this is a post from yesterday.
7:25
Speaker 5: Let's put a four up on the screen. He just writes,
7:29
Speaker 5: looks like we may need a lot more quote unquote
7:31
Speaker 5: defensive strikes on Iran Ryan.
7:35
Speaker 7: It is funny to think of uh, defensive getting used
7:39
Speaker 7: all the way to include even strikes like on Iranian soil.
7:43
Speaker 4: They also the US also hit.
7:46
Speaker 7: Some kind of positions along the Iranian coast of the
7:50
Speaker 7: Strait up hormoves. Yes, Mark Levin very excited. Do we
7:53
Speaker 7: put up a two yet? Yeah, Le's put it, so
7:56
Speaker 7: put up a two. So in response to this these
8:00
Speaker 7: back and forth clashes, Iran is actually saying that they're
8:03
Speaker 7: going to respond more to this, that they're that that
8:06
Speaker 7: they feel like this was a significant enough breach of
8:09
Speaker 7: the ceasefire that doesn't actually exist because the seasefire expired
8:12
Speaker 7: weeks ago, but they feel like it's it's a significant
8:16
Speaker 7: enough attack. They don't consider it to be defensive because
8:18
Speaker 7: that's absurd anyway that they're going to retaliate. So whether
8:25
Speaker 7: that happens or not, well, I you know, we'll find
8:28
Speaker 7: out in the next you know, hours, hours and days.
8:31
Speaker 4: As as the.
8:31
Speaker 7: US you know, continues to hammer out what Rubio says,
8:35
Speaker 7: like you said, just you know, just words away, just
8:38
Speaker 7: like they've got one sentence left that they need to
8:41
Speaker 7: like work out and then once they do, that's gonna
8:44
Speaker 7: work out. Meanwhile, Lindsay Graham is absolutely losing his mind
8:47
Speaker 7: at the Pakistani's again, he's he's he's saying he doesn't.
8:52
Speaker 4: Trust the Pakistanis.
8:54
Speaker 7: The Pakistanis are hiding Iranian planes they're you know, he's
8:58
Speaker 7: basically calling them jadas and that in league.
9:02
Speaker 4: With with Pakistan.
9:03
Speaker 7: He previously attacked the Omani's who were the mediators, said,
9:08
Speaker 7: you know those are uh, you know, biased mediators against them.
9:12
Speaker 7: He has attacked the Qataris as mediators in the past.
9:17
Speaker 4: I think the way that.
9:18
Speaker 7: My colleague Mos put it was that, you know, there
9:21
Speaker 7: was a way to uh to kind of demobilize the
9:25
Speaker 7: American Empire in a in a rational fashion, which the
9:29
Speaker 7: j c POA was part of. It was an attempt
9:32
Speaker 7: to kind of put put the region at some ease
9:35
Speaker 7: so that the US could back away from it and
9:37
Speaker 7: focus on other things and reach an agreement in normalization
9:41
Speaker 7: with the countries there.
9:42
Speaker 4: That didn't happen. So now they're they're at.
9:45
Speaker 7: The phase of just shouting at the referees like it's
9:49
Speaker 7: and it's kind of comical to think from the from
9:52
Speaker 7: the US perspective that you're getting steamrolled by I'm sorry
9:56
Speaker 7: Pakistan Oman cutter, like you can you.
10:00
Speaker 5: Can shout at the referees or you can escalate. I mean,
10:04
Speaker 5: that's those are the options right now at there. Take
10:08
Speaker 5: a deal or escalate or do shout at the referees.
10:11
Speaker 5: And take a deal or escalate, or escalate and shot
10:14
Speaker 5: at thro Either way, they're going to be shouting at
10:15
Speaker 5: the referees.
10:16
Speaker 4: That's not a shouting accurate.
10:17
Speaker 5: I also wanted to ask you Ryan about this. Trump
10:20
Speaker 5: is now pushing for I'm reading from political quote Muslim
10:23
Speaker 5: majority countries to join the Abraham acquintans as he seeks
10:25
Speaker 5: an end to the Iran war. That is quote being
10:28
Speaker 5: met with laughter, dismissal, and often silence. That's again according
10:33
Speaker 5: to Politico, which writes it could endanger the prospects of
10:36
Speaker 5: a possible deal, but many aren't taking the push seriously.
10:38
Speaker 5: Aron Fritz, part is walking a tightrope of trying to
10:41
Speaker 5: get financial relief for its strained economy while also not
10:44
Speaker 5: seating enough ground to give Trump a victory. They've also
10:47
Speaker 5: started restoring internet access as of yesterday, it looks like
10:51
Speaker 5: some significant internet.
10:52
Speaker 7: Access Internet internets back there. They're going to get se
10:55
Speaker 7: those lego videos. It's although they'll be in English, so
10:58
Speaker 7: most people won't understand them. Mm hmm, but you know
11:02
Speaker 7: the cultural power of them pops through. I think no
11:06
Speaker 7: matter what language you speak.
11:07
Speaker 6: So what should we think of this Abraham accord?
11:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I make fun of a rock revive a lot.
11:11
Speaker 7: But he had a really fun little nugget in one
11:14
Speaker 7: of his pieces where Trump first was like, okay, guys,
11:17
Speaker 7: like I'm reaching this piece deal and he's got everybody,
11:22
Speaker 7: He's got his He had Turkey at Egypt, and then
11:25
Speaker 7: he had all all the Gulf on the phone and like, okay, great,
11:30
Speaker 7: and then he's like, oh and I need you all
11:33
Speaker 7: to sign the Abraham.
11:33
Speaker 4: Accords and number those in.
11:36
Speaker 7: Revins characterization of it, it was just silence. And then
11:42
Speaker 7: you get that funny moment where Trump's like, you guys
11:46
Speaker 7: still there?
11:48
Speaker 4: You still They're like, yeah, we're here.
11:50
Speaker 6: Did it break up?
11:51
Speaker 4: We're here?
11:52
Speaker 7: Uh And of course Mohammed ben Ziad he's like, it's great,
11:57
Speaker 7: you eat, We're in.
11:59
Speaker 4: They're already in on that. But then everybody else is like, no,
12:02
Speaker 4: we're not doing that.
12:03
Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia put out a pretty clear statement saying we
12:06
Speaker 7: have been, you know, one percent clear that we are
12:11
Speaker 7: not signing a peace agreement with Israel until the Palestinian
12:15
Speaker 7: issue has been resolved.
12:16
Speaker 8: Yeah.
12:16
Speaker 7: That's our that's been our position, that remains our position.
12:20
Speaker 7: Uh So Trump, that'll be a domestic nightmare for them.
12:24
Speaker 7: I would imagine, I guess. I mean, it's a dictatorship
12:28
Speaker 7: you can match.
12:29
Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, it would.
12:32
Speaker 7: It would be a domestic problem for them for sure.
12:36
Speaker 7: And it would be you know, they consider themselves to
12:39
Speaker 7: be you know, and they jockey for position as the
12:42
Speaker 7: kind of leaders of the kind of Muslim world and
12:47
Speaker 7: wreck you know, they would be sacrificing that for sure.
12:50
Speaker 4: So the prestige that they.
12:52
Speaker 7: Generate from Mecca would you know, be out the door
12:57
Speaker 7: if you're like recognizing Israel without you know, while they're
13:01
Speaker 7: continuing to occupy Gaza and they're they're they're now working
13:05
Speaker 7: this bill through the Knesset. It's an antiquities law that
13:09
Speaker 7: would basically put all of the West Bank under their
13:12
Speaker 7: like antiquities long and you know, they go around and
13:15
Speaker 7: be like, oh look, here's a coin with Hebrew on it,
13:17
Speaker 7: like this is all ours now out So to recognize
13:22
Speaker 7: them while they're doing that is yeah, would is not possible.
13:26
Speaker 4: So it feels like Trump is grasping.
13:29
Speaker 7: I don't know who suggested that this was something worth
13:32
Speaker 7: even suggesting, because Jared maybe, I guess, but it's like
13:37
Speaker 7: Jared should know better, Like that's not happening. It wasn't
13:42
Speaker 7: happening before, it's definitely not happening now. So you're just
13:45
Speaker 7: proposing it not to get it. But maybe the idea is,
13:48
Speaker 7: like I don't know, because you had a whole bunch
13:50
Speaker 7: of Trump's defenders being like absolute genius, move boss, like incredible,
13:56
Speaker 7: like again you like art.
13:57
Speaker 4: Of the deal.
13:59
Speaker 7: It's like, well, he's not going to get this, so
14:03
Speaker 7: he's just taking another public l.
14:05
Speaker 5: Or he's playing forty chess that Ryan Graham chess master
14:09
Speaker 5: who plays some of you on his chest.
14:12
Speaker 6: You can't quite.
14:13
Speaker 4: Follow, No, he's too advanced.
14:16
Speaker 7: Yeah, and then there was some reporting that we were
14:18
Speaker 7: escorting ships to the Strait of her moves but of A.
14:21
Speaker 4: Three and not it turns out not true.
14:24
Speaker 7: But the Iranians have said they actually have shut about
14:28
Speaker 7: twenty five ships through in the last twenty four hours.
14:30
Speaker 5: So like, where is that reporting coming from? Who is
14:33
Speaker 5: telling people that I actually because.
14:35
Speaker 4: This keeps happening, It does keep happening.
14:38
Speaker 6: There's someone who keeps putting that.
14:40
Speaker 4: Is it coming from the Pentagon.
14:43
Speaker 5: That would be my assumption if people are reporting this,
14:46
Speaker 5: but it could be the White House.
14:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it is very strange. So reporters out there
14:53
Speaker 4: like check with the ships.
14:56
Speaker 6: Good luck.
14:57
Speaker 7: Don't just don't just take the White House word for
15:00
Speaker 7: any of the things related to the straight and from.
15:02
Speaker 6: More or tell us that it's specifically coming from the world. Yes,
15:05
Speaker 6: that would be helpful.
15:07
Speaker 4: Like, oh, okay, that's not true.
15:11
Speaker 5: Let's talk about Lebanon because a lot of news to
15:13
Speaker 5: break down a Lebanon.
15:14
Speaker 6: We can go ahead now.
15:16
Speaker 5: And roll B one. This is going to be a vo.
15:19
Speaker 5: Ryan tell us what we're seeing on the screen. This
15:20
Speaker 5: is from Hesbala. This is drones targeting the idea.
15:25
Speaker 7: Yeah, so they've been releasing a lot of these videos
15:28
Speaker 7: almost on a on a daily basis, and so this
15:31
Speaker 7: is one where they're chasing an IDF troop convoy. These
15:36
Speaker 7: are in southern Lebanon and these are these These are
15:41
Speaker 7: these first person drones that have fiber optic cables connected
15:45
Speaker 7: to them. So in other words, they have up to
15:47
Speaker 7: like twenty five kilometers of what looks like fishing line
15:50
Speaker 7: that connects them to a laptop, which allows which prevents
15:54
Speaker 7: them from being jammed and then allows these operators to
15:59
Speaker 7: then run.
16:00
Speaker 4: No, this is this one.
16:01
Speaker 7: Here is a thermal drone, which is the first one
16:05
Speaker 7: that they released showing uh, you know, offensive drone activity
16:10
Speaker 7: at night.
16:11
Speaker 4: And if if you notice in that.
16:12
Speaker 5: Clip, so this is showing offensive drone activity from the idea.
16:16
Speaker 5: No that was hes blood you're saying that, Okay, but
16:18
Speaker 5: this is in southern Lebanon, right.
16:19
Speaker 7: And so yeah, I mean you call it, you can
16:21
Speaker 7: call it defensive, but they are actively taking the initiative. Yeah,
16:24
Speaker 7: I see, and if you noticed that soldier didn't appear
16:27
Speaker 7: to even hear it. You know, the IDF has its
16:31
Speaker 7: own drones going constantly, so you know, you ever, it
16:34
Speaker 7: may be that there's kind of too much noise going
16:37
Speaker 7: on or whatever, and they're not very loud, but when
16:40
Speaker 7: they what I'm what I'm told my people have experienced it.
16:43
Speaker 7: When they do dive, they make more noise. They're quieter
16:47
Speaker 7: as they're floating. But then, yeah, he didn't even that.
16:51
Speaker 7: That soldier didn't even seem to notice it.
16:52
Speaker 6: Totally haunting videos.
16:53
Speaker 5: I mean, some of the videos that have come out
16:54
Speaker 5: of the battlefield and the Dawnboss just haunted the lack
16:59
Speaker 5: of noise, but also the terror that you see people
17:02
Speaker 5: like realizing at the last minute.
17:04
Speaker 6: Right, we have another element here.
17:07
Speaker 5: This is from Electronic Electronic into FADA posted this there's
17:13
Speaker 5: netting where the Israeli trips are in side hawk mechanism.
17:18
Speaker 5: Yeah right, so we'll roll it and then you can
17:20
Speaker 5: break it down for us.
17:21
Speaker 1: Another innovation here by these rays. Look at the netting
17:24
Speaker 1: dragged across the neighborhood here. This is their solution. But
17:27
Speaker 1: watch when this drone turns back and looks at the village.
17:30
Speaker 1: They basically just have this fishing net. Essentially, it's not
17:33
Speaker 1: even appropriate netting. They just draped it over the neighborhood
17:38
Speaker 1: as if drones fall like rain drops. I guess that's
17:42
Speaker 1: the only way you're going to protect it, because you
17:44
Speaker 1: can clearly see that you can just fly under them.
17:49
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure what the Israeli plan is with
17:51
Speaker 1: these nettings, but this is this is ridiculous what we're
17:55
Speaker 1: looking at here, just draping it all across the neighborhood
17:59
Speaker 1: so you know exactly where every Israeli troop is in there.
18:03
Speaker 1: This they think is a little more effective, except that
18:05
Speaker 1: the drone doesn't care that you have netting over top
18:08
Speaker 1: of your base. It's just gonna fly under the netting
18:13
Speaker 1: and hit your vehicle. So there goes another humvy and
18:16
Speaker 1: the numbers here they're not on Israel's side. So one
18:20
Speaker 1: hundred and forty FPV drones launched in this thirty day
18:25
Speaker 1: period of time that are taking out a vehicle for
18:29
Speaker 1: each one of them, and that's only one hundred and
18:31
Speaker 1: forty drones. They have thousands of these drones. It's changed
18:35
Speaker 1: the battlefield.
18:36
Speaker 5: The argument was that because they're laying this netting, not
18:40
Speaker 5: only can the husband of drones fly under the netting,
18:44
Speaker 5: but also it is telegraph right where they might.
18:46
Speaker 4: Find go find the giant blankets.
18:48
Speaker 6: That's what we were looking at basically.
18:49
Speaker 7: Yeah, and John Elmer is the best in the business
18:52
Speaker 7: of this over at EI. He's when it comes to
18:56
Speaker 7: kind of analyzing the tactics and the military equipment that's
19:02
Speaker 7: that the different sides are putting into the field. This
19:05
Speaker 7: has this is blowing up no pun intended, Israeli politics
19:10
Speaker 7: as well. You're having enormous, an enormous outpouring of criticism
19:16
Speaker 7: of Yahoo and of the civilian leadership from the military
19:21
Speaker 7: saying you have put us into this position now in
19:25
Speaker 7: which we have no solutions. We are sitting ducks and
19:30
Speaker 7: we're being you know, just slaughtered. You know, the idea
19:34
Speaker 7: of isn't used to losing one or two or more
19:36
Speaker 7: soldiers a day and setting aside the material losses of
19:42
Speaker 7: the tanks and the vehicles and the transport equipment, and
19:48
Speaker 7: on top of that, they're saying it it has massively
19:50
Speaker 7: inhibited their ability to move throughout southern Lebanon. Ben Gaverer
19:56
Speaker 7: has said that what they need to do is take
20:00
Speaker 7: down one residential building in a root for every drone
20:04
Speaker 7: that's launched, which is, you know, just pure terrorism. But
20:11
Speaker 7: you know, wouldn't wouldn't be the first time they took
20:13
Speaker 7: Ben Gavier's advice. They just the KINESSA just approves i
20:18
Speaker 7: think seven hundred million dollars in funding for a kind
20:23
Speaker 7: of technological unit to study the problem and figure out
20:27
Speaker 7: ways better than you know, fish netting or netting that
20:32
Speaker 7: they you know, there are like people are throwing around
20:35
Speaker 7: all kinds of hair brain schemes.
20:37
Speaker 5: Like anyways, like the rope dome and so except you
20:41
Speaker 5: can get under it.
20:42
Speaker 7: And then the UAE they're putting cages around like everything
20:47
Speaker 7: there's there they've got. They're putting cages on tanks and
20:49
Speaker 7: trucks and other things so that if the drone hits
20:51
Speaker 7: the cage, then at least it like reduces the kind
20:55
Speaker 7: of blast impact that it has. Uh, there are some
20:58
Speaker 7: hair brain schemes of like firing some type of a
21:03
Speaker 7: cannon at a drone that would then somehow wrap around
21:05
Speaker 7: the fiber optic cable and snap it. Martaza was telling
21:10
Speaker 7: was telling me that like in Ukraine, you'll have soldiers
21:13
Speaker 7: actually like going into the field with scissors trying to
21:17
Speaker 7: like finding the fishing line on the grounds and snipping it.
21:21
Speaker 7: So we'll see what they come up with their seven
21:23
Speaker 7: hundred million dollar investment. But as of now it has
21:27
Speaker 7: really transformed the battlefield in Lebanon. Meanwhile, they are I
21:35
Speaker 7: don't know if we have the element for this. No,
21:38
Speaker 7: let's let's get back to that a minute. The that
21:41
Speaker 7: they're launching an offensive outside of their security zone, outside
21:45
Speaker 7: of their kind of comfort zone in southern Lebanon, which
21:50
Speaker 7: has included an attack on this dam. And so this
21:52
Speaker 7: is this was this was this is scaring the heck
21:56
Speaker 7: out of everybody. This is the Koun Dam in the Valle.
22:00
Speaker 7: It produces ten to twenty percent of electricity for Lebanon.
22:05
Speaker 7: But more than that, if it was destroyed as as
22:08
Speaker 7: you see it getting bombed there, it would put tens
22:12
Speaker 7: of thousands of people at risk of getting washed away
22:15
Speaker 7: like just it would just be an absolutely catastrophic humanitarian disaster.
22:21
Speaker 7: And here they are, you know, bombing, multi bombing, is
22:25
Speaker 7: dam multiple times, just scaring the hell out of everybody.
22:33
Speaker 4: We can put up B seven.
22:36
Speaker 7: Yesterday, Israel killed thirty one people across Lebanon.
22:42
Speaker 6: Four children and three women, according to drop site here.
22:46
Speaker 7: Yeah, and the number of medics and journalists killed continues
22:51
Speaker 7: to climb amid these attacks. It has really affected the
22:55
Speaker 7: way that rescuers can work because if they know that
22:58
Speaker 7: if they go to a site of a bombing to
23:00
Speaker 7: try to pull people out of the rubble, the chance
23:02
Speaker 7: that they're going to get hit increases almost to a guarantee.
23:07
Speaker 7: And in Gaza we put up B six yesterday they
23:10
Speaker 7: killed fourteen.
23:11
Speaker 6: And one of the strikes was near a Palasinian refugee camp.
23:14
Speaker 7: And so then let it on right, yes, yes, so yeah,
23:18
Speaker 7: there's so there's be six some details from dropsite on
23:21
Speaker 7: on the fourteen killed across across Gaza yesterday and in
23:26
Speaker 7: both Gaza and Lebanon there technically ceasefires in place now
23:33
Speaker 7: you may have seen, and we put up B five
23:35
Speaker 7: here Israel some of these people were killed when the
23:41
Speaker 7: new the new Hamas military chief, Muhammad ode was targeted
23:46
Speaker 7: and killed. His funeral is today so like it's been
23:49
Speaker 7: confirmed that he was killed, and then Yahoo in the
23:54
Speaker 7: Israeli government celebrated that they had killed this new commander
23:58
Speaker 7: after he'd taken paw, taking office just after eleven days.
24:03
Speaker 7: And I think people who aren't totally immune to the
24:06
Speaker 7: way that these things unfold, like, hold on a second,
24:09
Speaker 7: you're what did he do? You have a ceasefire that
24:14
Speaker 7: you signed with Hamas, Like if you wanted a section
24:21
Speaker 7: in the ceasefire that said, we will agree to a
24:24
Speaker 7: ceasefire except whenever we feel like it, we will attack you,
24:29
Speaker 7: then you should have tried to negotiate for that.
24:32
Speaker 4: There's just so.
24:34
Speaker 7: Little dignity and integrity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal.
24:39
Speaker 4: And then without without.
24:43
Speaker 7: Even arguing that there's been any breacher you have any
24:45
Speaker 7: justification for doing it, just killing a military commander and
24:50
Speaker 7: his wife and everybody around him.
24:52
Speaker 5: These rulers are claiming he was the head of Hamas
24:55
Speaker 5: intelligence during October seventh.
24:57
Speaker 4: Yeah, right, but there's a ceasefire.
25:00
Speaker 5: Well, what I was also going to say is that
25:02
Speaker 5: this is the goal of the ward was to eradicate Hamas. Right,
25:06
Speaker 5: That's what Netzan Nahu said over and over again. I
25:08
Speaker 5: believe it's what Biden said over and over again. And
25:12
Speaker 5: we've been covering for like years now the unlikeliness of
25:17
Speaker 5: actually eradicating Hamas. And I do think it's interesting that
25:21
Speaker 5: somebody who was the head of Hamas Intelligence is alive
25:25
Speaker 5: or was alive to lead as Israel is claiming he
25:28
Speaker 5: did a renewing of the organizational structure. That's a quote
25:35
Speaker 5: from that's according to a Saudi outlet now in twenty twenty.
25:39
Speaker 7: Six, right, right, And that the only way they can
25:43
Speaker 7: fight back against that is illegal assassinations that go against
25:47
Speaker 7: their own agreement, which they keep saying, like ah Hamas
25:50
Speaker 7: hasn't disarmed, Hamas didn't agree to disarm, and we.
25:53
Speaker 4: Covered this, like so they're.
25:56
Speaker 7: Insisting on things like including disarmament that were not agreed to,
26:01
Speaker 7: and then they are killing people despite the fact that
26:05
Speaker 7: they agreed to a ceasefire and they've killed more than
26:07
Speaker 7: eight hundred people since the ceasefire in October, which is
26:13
Speaker 7: it's just like what kind of what kind of seas
26:15
Speaker 7: fire is that.
26:17
Speaker 5: This is a horribly morbid thing to even speculate about.
26:20
Speaker 5: I wonder if that's lower than what it otherwise.
26:24
Speaker 7: Oh, absolutely lower. We're killing eight hundred a week before that.
26:27
Speaker 6: But it's still so grim to think about it in
26:29
Speaker 6: that sense.
26:30
Speaker 7: Yes, and this, and maybe we should have had this
26:33
Speaker 7: in our round block actually, but yes, but it's it's
26:35
Speaker 7: also an interesting kind of military innovation, so it does
26:39
Speaker 7: fit here. Just when I keep people up to date,
26:42
Speaker 7: you can put up this vo this This is B
26:44
Speaker 7: three Iran finally released video of them getting a radar
26:49
Speaker 7: lock on an F thirty five, And the US has
26:53
Speaker 7: spent like a trillion dollars or something on this thirty
26:57
Speaker 7: five platform all on and the notion that you can't
27:02
Speaker 7: do what you're watching be done right there, which is
27:06
Speaker 7: get a radar lock on an F thirty.
27:07
Speaker 6: Five, shutdown a reaper drone too, and two of.
27:10
Speaker 7: Them, Yeah, shut down two reaper drones. They're like, yeah,
27:12
Speaker 7: one hundred million, fifty two hundred million bucks apiece or
27:15
Speaker 7: something like that.
27:16
Speaker 4: Ump che like, yeah, yeah, it's trumping.
27:19
Speaker 7: How many role hospitals have closed in the last month,
27:21
Speaker 7: and it's what's.
27:22
Speaker 5: Fifty six point five million for an MQ nine reaper?
27:27
Speaker 7: The number of the amount of money that these role
27:31
Speaker 7: hospitals close for a shortage of is heartbreaking. Like one
27:36
Speaker 7: of those drones could keep a role hospital open for
27:40
Speaker 7: like five years, five more years and make it free.
27:43
Speaker 5: So I think to bring this full circle, my last
27:46
Speaker 5: question for you, Ryan is when we see this is
27:49
Speaker 5: obviously asymmetric warfare in southern Lebanon, this is the example
27:53
Speaker 5: from Iran. I think underscores what's happening in southern Lebanon.
27:56
Speaker 5: Are underscores the level of threat or the lack of
27:59
Speaker 5: can that the IDEF has right now in southern Lebanon
28:03
Speaker 5: and the difficulty of doing what they want to do there.
28:05
Speaker 5: How does this now we're talking about Abraham Accords, we're
28:09
Speaker 5: talking about Lebanon, we're talking about Iran. How does all
28:13
Speaker 5: of this go into the various negotiations that Trump and
28:16
Speaker 5: Rubio right now are trying to and Steve Whitcoff and
28:19
Speaker 5: Jared Kushner are trying to hash out not just with
28:23
Speaker 5: one country in another country, but apparently with the Arab world,
28:26
Speaker 5: because that's what it would take for them to achieve
28:28
Speaker 5: what they say their ends are. So, if we're looking
28:31
Speaker 5: at this incursion in the southern Lebanon. That's another huge
28:34
Speaker 5: piece on the chess board that is barely getting attention
28:36
Speaker 5: for the president.
28:38
Speaker 7: Yeah, and what did Ben Gavier said yesterday that he
28:40
Speaker 7: will not allow.
28:43
Speaker 8: That?
28:43
Speaker 7: Metnahu should not allow Trump to make a peace deal
28:46
Speaker 7: with Iran that includes a peace agreement in Lebanon. Just
28:51
Speaker 7: should Israel shouldn't allow it. And Israel, unless the US
28:56
Speaker 7: does something about it, can just continue aging war on Lebanon.
29:02
Speaker 7: And so that what that would be doing is asking
29:04
Speaker 7: Americans to continue to pay five dollars a gallon for gas,
29:08
Speaker 7: to continue to have the global economic dislocation that we're suffering,
29:13
Speaker 7: mortgage rates way up in the sixes. Also, Israel can
29:18
Speaker 7: continue to go to war with Lebanon.
29:20
Speaker 4: It's like, how is that? What?
29:22
Speaker 7: How is that our concern? Why should we be sacrificing
29:26
Speaker 7: for that? How about you withdraw from Lebanon and reach
29:31
Speaker 7: a peace agreement with your neighbors and gas and mortgage
29:35
Speaker 7: rates can go down?
29:36
Speaker 8: How about that?
29:37
Speaker 6: It seems wildly unlikely.
29:40
Speaker 4: I guess so.
29:41
Speaker 5: So yeah, well, let's bring in Professor Robert Pape to
29:45
Speaker 5: help us understand where this could be going in the future.
29:48
Speaker 5: We'll be right back with Professor Pape. We are joined
29:53
Speaker 5: once again by Robert Pape. He is, of course, the
29:55
Speaker 5: University of Chicago professor a political science. He directs the
29:59
Speaker 5: Chicago Project on Security and Threats, and he's the author
30:02
Speaker 5: of Bombing to Win and writes the substack, The Escalation
30:06
Speaker 5: Trap has been many times on this show, recently to
30:10
Speaker 5: discuss recent developments out of Iran.
30:12
Speaker 6: Professor Pape, thank you so much for joining us.
30:15
Speaker 8: Thank you for having me.
30:16
Speaker 5: Yeah, we were just talking before we went to air.
30:18
Speaker 5: You helped organize a great event last week at bus
30:21
Speaker 5: Boys and Poets here in Washington, DC that people can
30:24
Speaker 5: go check out on YouTube. It's on the bus Boys YouTube.
30:26
Speaker 5: It's full of really interesting perspectives from folks like Jasha
30:30
Speaker 5: hot Ali. I did a panel with Joe Kent and
30:32
Speaker 5: Treata Parsi. So, Professor Pape, it seemed like a great success.
30:36
Speaker 5: You addressed the crowd. The crowd was loving it. They
30:40
Speaker 5: they're very excited to see you in person. So that
30:43
Speaker 5: kind of bridging of the left and the right was
30:46
Speaker 5: an interesting experiment on foreign policy.
30:49
Speaker 9: It was important in a lot of ways. So first
30:51
Speaker 9: of all, actually going from online to in person very
30:54
Speaker 9: very important to do. And also to see the amazing reception.
30:59
Speaker 9: We had hundreds of people who were trying to get
31:02
Speaker 9: into those seats and it was just incredible to see that.
31:06
Speaker 9: And what that really shows is that there is a
31:09
Speaker 9: crying hunger for a better foreign policy, and that is
31:14
Speaker 9: true across the political spectrum, and that's something that's very
31:18
Speaker 9: very important.
31:19
Speaker 8: As we go forward.
31:21
Speaker 9: So there will of course be lots of things we're
31:23
Speaker 9: going to disagree on. This isn't about trying to get
31:26
Speaker 9: people to vote for the same candidate that said. What
31:30
Speaker 9: we need to do is understand that there is a
31:32
Speaker 9: common understanding that our foreign policy here has simply been
31:37
Speaker 9: a disaster. And were very unhappy before the Iran war.
31:43
Speaker 9: We're much more concerned now because it's touching our lives
31:47
Speaker 9: in a personal way. So this is now not just
31:50
Speaker 9: simply a principal issue. We're something to be five or
31:54
Speaker 9: six issues down the totem pole. This is a front
31:57
Speaker 9: and center issue that's going to affect people's job, people's livelihood,
32:01
Speaker 9: what they can eat, what they cannot eat. This is
32:04
Speaker 9: really a dramat and it's happening because of a foreign
32:08
Speaker 9: policy decision, and that's what we really want to lean
32:13
Speaker 9: into going forward, and I hope that we'll have more
32:16
Speaker 9: events there. I'm going to have an event here in
32:19
Speaker 9: the city of Chicago, and I'm going to try to
32:21
Speaker 9: do a number of these in person events where bring
32:24
Speaker 9: people from across the political spectrum to talk about this need.
32:29
Speaker 9: Because as we're trying to as we comment on all
32:32
Speaker 9: the details, and I'm sure we'll do that now, the
32:35
Speaker 9: fact of the matter is there's something bigger going.
32:38
Speaker 8: On here, and that bigger.
32:40
Speaker 9: We need to move into and not just assume this
32:43
Speaker 9: will all somehow magically take care of itself once we
32:48
Speaker 9: just have a new round of elections. It's only been
32:52
Speaker 9: a few years since we got out of the last
32:53
Speaker 9: Forever Wars and we're right back on the in another one.
32:57
Speaker 9: This is showing you we need more and that big
33:00
Speaker 9: guardrail is actually us the people.
33:04
Speaker 5: Well, let's start with this post from Monday that you made,
33:07
Speaker 5: and you can put this up on the screen. On
33:09
Speaker 5: the screen, you said Trump just made a major concession
33:12
Speaker 5: on the nuclear issue. Words that move closer to Iran's position,
33:15
Speaker 5: good for a deal. You were referring to this post
33:18
Speaker 5: on true Social where Trump said the enriched uranium nuclear
33:20
Speaker 5: dust will either be immediately turned over to the United
33:22
Speaker 5: States to be brought home and destroyed or preferably in
33:24
Speaker 5: conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed
33:28
Speaker 5: in place or at another acceptable location, with the Atomic
33:31
Speaker 5: Energy Commission or its equivalent being witnessed to this process
33:34
Speaker 5: event And you said, but the US military just attacked
33:38
Speaker 5: missile sites in Iran, daring the IRGC to respond. Bad
33:42
Speaker 5: for a deal with this chaos, why should Iran believe
33:45
Speaker 5: Trump's promises? And obviously we are still potentially waiting on
33:49
Speaker 5: a response from the IRGC, So as things stand right now,
33:53
Speaker 5: Professor Pape, help us to understand why. I mean, if
33:58
Speaker 5: you're iron and you're looking at this, you're looking at
33:59
Speaker 5: Trump conceding on the nuclear issue than attacking missile sites
34:03
Speaker 5: in Iran to them, do you think this all just
34:05
Speaker 5: seems totally fake and like posturing.
34:08
Speaker 9: I think that it seems totally chaotic if you're looking
34:11
Speaker 9: at this from Iran's perspective, and what you see if
34:14
Speaker 9: you're in Iran shoes, is that President Trump is trying
34:18
Speaker 9: to essentially communicate with all these different audiences, including Iran
34:24
Speaker 9: here and doing it on truth, social and then of
34:27
Speaker 9: course with bombing, which is also communication, and these are
34:31
Speaker 9: not adding up in a way that is producing anything
34:35
Speaker 9: like stability here.
34:36
Speaker 8: So we need.
34:37
Speaker 9: To understand that this is a situation where Iran is
34:43
Speaker 9: in the driver's seat. So this is chaos by Trump
34:48
Speaker 9: in a situation where it's the United States that has
34:52
Speaker 9: suffered a major strategic defeat in this war. And that
34:58
Speaker 9: is something that not just Iran believes, but other leaders believe.
35:03
Speaker 9: You hear, you see that President Trump himself is making
35:06
Speaker 9: concessions to Iran's position. So President Trump may not say it,
35:11
Speaker 9: but he understands that he's got to move to Iran's position.
35:15
Speaker 8: But at the same.
35:16
Speaker 9: Time, he is seeing that if he owns the l
35:20
Speaker 9: crystal and you heard this on Friday night, that the
35:24
Speaker 9: big problem with the escalation trap is that as President
35:28
Speaker 9: Trump gets closer to owning the loss, then that puts
35:33
Speaker 9: enormous political pressure on him because it causes him to
35:38
Speaker 9: lose the current support he has, or at least whittle
35:41
Speaker 9: it down further. So if you say he's got a
35:44
Speaker 9: solid lock on thirty thirty three percent of the country
35:48
Speaker 9: and you see that in the primaries, that can actually
35:52
Speaker 9: be whittled down because that thirty to thirty three percent
35:56
Speaker 9: believes he's a winner, and if he goes to being
36:00
Speaker 9: a loser, then that is going to be a further
36:03
Speaker 9: drift down. And I think that's what is what you're
36:06
Speaker 9: seeing with President Trump. He knows he's in a losing
36:09
Speaker 9: position here, and as he tries to navigate the escalation
36:13
Speaker 9: trap to wiggle out of it, it keeps pulling.
36:17
Speaker 8: Him back in.
36:18
Speaker 9: And the truth is he needs to, I think, focus
36:22
Speaker 9: on a narrower set of issues. So what I will
36:24
Speaker 9: maybe talk about this, but I think that this idea
36:27
Speaker 9: that he's just going to fuddle around on all these
36:29
Speaker 9: different issues and find some way to get a w
36:33
Speaker 9: that he can claim here is just getting him deeper
36:36
Speaker 9: into the escalation trap. And look, if it was only
36:39
Speaker 9: his presidency, we could say who cares. But the problem
36:42
Speaker 9: is it's not just his presidency.
36:44
Speaker 8: This is impacting negatively all of us listening to this.
36:48
Speaker 9: And by July fifteenth, those inventories are running out, folks.
36:54
Speaker 9: So we're going to hit a triple time bomb here
36:56
Speaker 9: where where inventories are going to run out and this
37:01
Speaker 9: is just going to hurt even more in the coming weeks.
37:05
Speaker 7: Yeah, And just so people understand the kind of concession
37:09
Speaker 7: that Trump was floating here.
37:11
Speaker 4: I'll just read it again.
37:12
Speaker 7: He says, you know, you either turn over the quote
37:16
Speaker 7: unquote nuclear dust to be brought home and destroyed or
37:18
Speaker 7: preferably in conjunction and coordination with the Israma Islamic Republic
37:22
Speaker 7: of Iran, which I noticed he switches around the language
37:25
Speaker 7: that he uses when referring to Iran depending on kind
37:29
Speaker 7: of his posture toward a deal. At the moment, he
37:32
Speaker 7: says it would be nuclear dust would quote be destroyed
37:35
Speaker 7: in place or at another exceptable location, which is another
37:38
Speaker 7: word for you down blending it.
37:41
Speaker 9: Which is exactly what Iran's position was on February twenty seven.
37:46
Speaker 9: So just what I mean by him moving to Iran
37:50
Speaker 9: is this was exactly the position that President Trump rejected
37:54
Speaker 9: on February twenty seven in that Oval Office discussion where
37:58
Speaker 9: he then chose to do the bombing the next day.
38:01
Speaker 9: And so what he's done in that post is he
38:04
Speaker 9: has given up the positions that he's had before and
38:10
Speaker 9: he's effectively moved to Iran's position. And that would mean,
38:14
Speaker 9: to be clear, what Iran was saying is it would
38:17
Speaker 9: dilute what it had above three point five percent so
38:21
Speaker 9: all of it would be three point five percent enriched,
38:24
Speaker 9: which also, to be clear, would gain a few extra
38:29
Speaker 9: months and how quickly that material could be produced into
38:33
Speaker 9: a working nuclear weapon. So it doesn't solve the nuclear
38:37
Speaker 9: weapon issue.
38:39
Speaker 8: It is a way. This is why Iran wants that
38:42
Speaker 8: enriched uranium.
38:43
Speaker 9: Capability and keep three point five percent, because that would
38:47
Speaker 9: allow it within about a year or so to then
38:52
Speaker 9: fashion somewhere between ten fifteen nuclear weapons at the current
38:56
Speaker 9: amount of material here, and that would mean it would
38:59
Speaker 9: rise to be the fourth center of world power, as
39:02
Speaker 9: the oil hedgemon in the in the in the Persian Gulf.
39:06
Speaker 9: So Trump was moving to that position. I've called that
39:09
Speaker 9: stage four the escalation trap. And then the problem is,
39:14
Speaker 9: of course, as soon as he announced it here, then
39:17
Speaker 9: he's being attacked here politically, and these are people who
39:21
Speaker 9: are his supporters, so they are telling him if you
39:25
Speaker 9: own the l which is what he was saying he
39:28
Speaker 9: was going to do, then you're going to lose that
39:31
Speaker 9: next level of support and maybe no surprise, we see
39:36
Speaker 9: bombing then a few hours, you know, not too long
39:40
Speaker 9: after that. This is what I've been defining as literally
39:43
Speaker 9: the escalation trap, where it's not that there aren't you know,
39:48
Speaker 9: words or deals you could talk about. But the politics
39:51
Speaker 9: of the trap is what pulls people to the trap.
39:54
Speaker 9: And that's what you saw right here. President Trump is
39:57
Speaker 9: having a hard time owning the l here, and that's
40:01
Speaker 9: what's keeping him in the trap. And I'm sorry to say,
40:05
Speaker 9: this can bounce back and forth, folks, if we keep
40:07
Speaker 9: to these set of terms. This can go back and
40:10
Speaker 9: forth for months, even when we hit the wall in
40:13
Speaker 9: the middle of July, when we run out of inventories
40:16
Speaker 9: and those gas prices shoot up even higher. Here we
40:21
Speaker 9: can bounce back and forth. That's why I'm suggesting we
40:25
Speaker 9: sort of narrow the ambitions here to try to find
40:29
Speaker 9: a way to squeak out of at least the peace
40:31
Speaker 9: of the trap.
40:32
Speaker 5: Well, right now, as we're awaiting the ergcy's potential response
40:36
Speaker 5: to what the United States is calling these defensive strikes
40:39
Speaker 5: in the straight of horror moves, I wanted to get
40:40
Speaker 5: your take on, Professor Papier, take on what we could
40:43
Speaker 5: expect to see from the RGCY on a kind of
40:46
Speaker 5: technical level, what response is possible, just as we also
40:51
Speaker 5: then try to expect what we see in response to
40:54
Speaker 5: that response from the United States. Now President Trump has
40:56
Speaker 5: said the navy has been destroyed. Ryan pointed out earlier
40:59
Speaker 5: in Nursha, but it doesn't make a ton of sense
41:01
Speaker 5: to say their navy has been destroyed. Will at the
41:03
Speaker 5: same time say that they're laying land mines in the
41:06
Speaker 5: Strait of Hormuze, But they've said basically missile capacity has
41:09
Speaker 5: been severely damaged. We'll see, Professor Pape, what do you
41:13
Speaker 5: expect to come out of maybe the next twenty four
41:15
Speaker 5: to forty eight hours, if anything.
41:18
Speaker 9: Well, I think that first of all, we need to
41:21
Speaker 9: see that there is a small possibility that Iran may
41:25
Speaker 9: decide to not give up a chance to react at all,
41:30
Speaker 9: but to do it in a more modest way. I
41:32
Speaker 9: don't think that's likely, but I don't think it's really
41:35
Speaker 9: quite off the table here, because after all, Iran was
41:39
Speaker 9: moving Trump toward their position. So I think Iran probably
41:44
Speaker 9: saw that tweet where Trump is giving up the resistance
41:48
Speaker 9: to their February twenty seventh position, and they're saying, actually,
41:53
Speaker 9: prison Trump is trying to surrender on their terms. So
41:56
Speaker 9: I think that this is something to not dismiss. That said,
42:01
Speaker 9: I think that what Iran has established since February twenty
42:04
Speaker 9: eight is that there would be some kind of a
42:08
Speaker 9: quid pro quo, and often though it's not directly a
42:11
Speaker 9: quid pro quo, the way we might understand it. So remember,
42:15
Speaker 9: the attack against the UE oil facility was a way
42:21
Speaker 9: that Iran thought about, and it wasn't a direct attack.
42:24
Speaker 8: It was sort of a near miss.
42:25
Speaker 9: It was kind of a brushback pitch to remind everybody
42:29
Speaker 9: that it could do more to damage the supply of
42:33
Speaker 9: oil to the world. And I think that's really what
42:35
Speaker 9: I'm more expecting here, because that's their leverage. Their leverage
42:39
Speaker 9: is very specifically now about the supply of oil to
42:45
Speaker 9: the world, and so I think that this would be
42:49
Speaker 9: completely within their strategic mindset right now, And so that's
42:55
Speaker 9: the most likely attack that I would see.
43:00
Speaker 4: In the conflict.
43:01
Speaker 7: You had said that the escalation trap was going to
43:03
Speaker 7: kind of inexorably push the US towards ground troops in Iran.
43:10
Speaker 7: Other than that weird kind of weekend rescue of the
43:14
Speaker 7: two down pilots of which we've heard nothing since and
43:17
Speaker 7: haven't learned who the pilots were. There hasn't been there
43:20
Speaker 7: haven't been American boots.
43:21
Speaker 4: On the ground.
43:22
Speaker 7: Why do you think that was, and do you still
43:24
Speaker 7: think the escalation trap pulls in that direction.
43:29
Speaker 9: So long as the nuclear issue remains front and center here.
43:34
Speaker 9: I think that the issue of US ground forces to
43:37
Speaker 9: go in to get that enriched uranium remains there the
43:41
Speaker 9: exact timing of that. So I know the public wants
43:45
Speaker 9: escalation to be linear, that it wants it to be
43:48
Speaker 9: on a schedule here. But we need to recall that
43:51
Speaker 9: when I did the modeling, I started not with the
43:55
Speaker 9: modeling where we did a February twenty eight attack to
43:58
Speaker 9: change the regime. The modeling I've been doing for twenty
44:01
Speaker 9: years starts with the US bombing four DOEH and the
44:04
Speaker 9: nuclear facilities, and then saying about a year or two
44:07
Speaker 9: after that we would do regime change bombing, which in
44:11
Speaker 9: fact happened, and then a period of time after that
44:14
Speaker 9: would be the limited ground operations here to get the
44:19
Speaker 9: nuclear material. That dust that he calls not really dust,
44:23
Speaker 9: but I think that that's really still there, and you
44:27
Speaker 9: hear pressure from net and Yahoo for that as well.
44:31
Speaker 9: So I realized the public wants things to be like
44:34
Speaker 9: a light switch. Either it's all escalation is all on,
44:37
Speaker 9: or it's not. But what you're really seeing is the
44:41
Speaker 9: way real war works. Real war are these long periods
44:46
Speaker 9: of boredom where costs are mounting indirectly punctuated by very
44:53
Speaker 9: short bursts of essentially sheer terror. And that is, unfortunately
44:58
Speaker 9: what you're likely to see here. And I described this
45:01
Speaker 9: as instability bouncing between the escalation track of military escalation
45:07
Speaker 9: and then the allowing Ran to rise to become the
45:11
Speaker 9: fourth center of world power. And I don't really think
45:14
Speaker 9: you're going to be able to end that unless we again,
45:18
Speaker 9: I do think that there's there's an important thought here
45:22
Speaker 9: that I want to get across today, which is that
45:25
Speaker 9: I do think there's something that we should focus on
45:28
Speaker 9: in the negotiations, and if it's okay, i'd like to
45:31
Speaker 9: because I just posted a big piece on this on substack,
45:35
Speaker 9: I'd like to bring this up. So I think that
45:37
Speaker 9: it's not really going to be possible to end this
45:40
Speaker 9: escalation trap altogether. I think that's that's that's what everybody wants,
45:44
Speaker 9: and I think that that's probably not right.
45:46
Speaker 8: However, I do think.
45:48
Speaker 9: That there's something that the negotiations should be focusing on
45:54
Speaker 9: more and they're not, which is literally the price of oil.
45:59
Speaker 9: So right now we're seeing negotiations about a whole host
46:03
Speaker 9: of these zero sum issues here, whether Iran's going to
46:09
Speaker 9: have nuclear material or not, whether it's completely opening horror
46:15
Speaker 9: moves or not. What matters to the public, What matters
46:19
Speaker 9: to that crowd at busboys and poets, though, are not
46:22
Speaker 9: all of these details, which of course the experts like
46:26
Speaker 9: us we'll talk about here. But what really matters are
46:30
Speaker 9: is the price of gas, what they're really paying. And
46:34
Speaker 9: I think that it would really behoove the Trump administration
46:39
Speaker 9: to cut to the chase about whether Iran is really
46:43
Speaker 9: willing to commit to returning the price of oil down
46:48
Speaker 9: to the pre war level. So you haven't heard that
46:52
Speaker 9: language yet, and I think it's important because I can
46:55
Speaker 9: well imagine we get a lot of sort of these
46:58
Speaker 9: MOUs and so forth, and then we discover that as
47:02
Speaker 9: months go by, the price of oil is still ninety
47:06
Speaker 9: dollars or higher. And it's because Iran has lots of
47:10
Speaker 9: tools at its disposal here, including with it with the
47:15
Speaker 9: who thies, with proxies, to find ways to keep that
47:19
Speaker 9: price and that risk premium high even as some ships
47:23
Speaker 9: are passing. And so I think unless we focus like
47:27
Speaker 9: a laser on the issue that really matters right now
47:32
Speaker 9: to the world's economy, which is literally the price of oil. Here,
47:38
Speaker 9: I think that we're going to be sadly surprised when
47:42
Speaker 9: we find out that whatever deal might come is not
47:45
Speaker 9: actually that much of a deal, you see, because otherwise
47:49
Speaker 9: Iran will just simply continue to deal with all these
47:55
Speaker 9: details when the bottom line for most Americans is what's
47:59
Speaker 9: really happening to that price of oil? And I think
48:03
Speaker 9: that this should be the front and center issue as
48:07
Speaker 9: the negotiations go forward, which is call iron out. Is
48:11
Speaker 9: Iran really willing to have the price of oil come
48:15
Speaker 9: back to the pre war levels of say the mid
48:17
Speaker 9: sixties for Brent, And.
48:19
Speaker 8: If not, why not?
48:21
Speaker 9: And that could actually be helpful over time because then
48:25
Speaker 9: you really could have a conversation here with China, with Russia,
48:30
Speaker 9: with the Europeans. Now you have something you're actually talking
48:35
Speaker 9: about that's concrete. And if we don't have that concrete issue,
48:39
Speaker 9: I think we're just going to be bouncing back and forth.
48:42
Speaker 9: There's too many big balls in the air all at
48:46
Speaker 9: the same time, and this is just a prescription for
48:50
Speaker 9: a dead dead negotiations.
48:52
Speaker 7: And we have some breaking news here where Iron State
48:54
Speaker 7: TV is putting out what they're calling basically an unofficial
48:58
Speaker 7: framework that has been agreed to by both sides that
49:01
Speaker 7: they're continuing to hash out. The details are the US
49:06
Speaker 7: military would withdraw from the vicinity of Iran. US Navy
49:11
Speaker 7: lifts its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran commits
49:15
Speaker 7: to restore the number of commercial transit ships through the
49:18
Speaker 7: straight to pre war levels within one month, though it
49:22
Speaker 7: doesn't spec doesn't say anything about whether or not they'll
49:25
Speaker 7: be charging or tolling or what. Iranan State media says.
49:30
Speaker 7: Military vessels are not included in this draft agreement. The
49:34
Speaker 7: managing of the ship traffic would be handled in cooperation
49:38
Speaker 7: with Oman. Oman just today announced a lot of new
49:42
Speaker 7: kind of trade and financial agreements with Iran, kind of
49:46
Speaker 7: preparing for a post US world. So that fits with
49:49
Speaker 7: the idea that they would maybe continue charging tolls. And
49:52
Speaker 7: then number six, if a final deal is reached within
49:55
Speaker 7: sixty days, that would involve the nuclear dust and the
49:58
Speaker 7: other stuff. The agreement would approved in the form of
50:01
Speaker 7: a binding UN Security Council resolution.
50:05
Speaker 4: So that's what the Iran State TV.
50:07
Speaker 8: Is, that's right.
50:08
Speaker 9: So that was in line with on Saturday I posted
50:12
Speaker 9: that was coming out from Iran's media. Actually, so I
50:15
Speaker 9: posted this on x that's roughly the same and that's
50:19
Speaker 9: the deed. That's what I meant that those are have
50:22
Speaker 9: always been Iran's term.
50:23
Speaker 7: This is similar to Jeremy Skhille reported Friday night.
50:26
Speaker 9: Yeah, yeah, so this is exactly what I mean by
50:29
Speaker 9: those are Iran's terms. And what you see is President
50:33
Speaker 9: Trump is having to move to Iran's terms, which is
50:36
Speaker 9: effectively surrendering on Iran's terms, you see, and that includes
50:41
Speaker 9: the tolls. So this would be Iran becoming the fourth
50:44
Speaker 9: center of world power. When I'm adding to that is
50:49
Speaker 9: that what's missing here is we're negotiating these these those
50:53
Speaker 9: six points. Is the actual issue that I'm I'm putting
50:57
Speaker 9: my finger on, which is the price of oil here,
51:00
Speaker 9: because you could end up with a situation where even
51:04
Speaker 9: with that deal, the price of oil does not remains
51:09
Speaker 9: near ninety dollars a barrel, you know, twenty thirty percent
51:12
Speaker 9: higher than it was before the war. Iran would have
51:15
Speaker 9: lots of reason to want that extra money. Russia would
51:18
Speaker 9: have reason to want that extra money even for a year.
51:21
Speaker 9: China might be willing to go along with that. So
51:24
Speaker 9: over the next year or two. This is the critical
51:29
Speaker 9: the critical issue here. So what I would say to
51:32
Speaker 9: President Trump is that you could agree to all of
51:36
Speaker 9: those six points, but then I would point out that
51:40
Speaker 9: the real thing that needs to be focused on is
51:43
Speaker 9: getting the price of oil back to close to the
51:46
Speaker 9: pre war levels, and as a commitment by Iran. So
51:50
Speaker 9: if for some unknown reason price of oil fluctuates, who
51:53
Speaker 9: these for instance, decide to attack pipeline, there will be
51:57
Speaker 9: an agreement that Iran will already under stand it has
52:00
Speaker 9: to make adjustments allow Saudi Arabia the UI to ship
52:04
Speaker 9: even more ships through the Persia through the Persian Gulf
52:08
Speaker 9: than before the war. Where the key goal is not
52:11
Speaker 9: exact number of ships, the key goal is the price
52:14
Speaker 9: of oil.
52:15
Speaker 7: All right, Professor Pape, always a pleasure to have you here.
52:18
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us.
52:20
Speaker 9: Yeah, we're gonna try to see if there's a way
52:21
Speaker 9: to wiggle out of this trap. I told you i'd
52:24
Speaker 9: be working on it, and there is a way to
52:26
Speaker 9: try to wiggle out of some of this a lot
52:28
Speaker 9: of oil.
52:29
Speaker 8: Let's hope we can do it.
52:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, I take it easy, Okay, thank you.
52:36
Speaker 5: Trump's top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, was grilled by Fox
52:41
Speaker 5: Business anchor Maria Barbaromo and Fox News anchor Maria Bartiomo
52:45
Speaker 5: yesterday morning over consumer sentiment did not go well for
52:50
Speaker 5: Kevin Hassett.
52:50
Speaker 6: Let's roll d one here.
52:52
Speaker 10: What would be your best expectation in terms of the
52:55
Speaker 10: impact and how how quickly an impact of a fall
52:59
Speaker 10: and oil prices might have on the consumer.
53:02
Speaker 4: Oh, it'll be right away.
53:03
Speaker 11: And again, like the three hundred nautical mile thing is
53:06
Speaker 11: the way you think about Europe and Asia and everything else.
53:09
Speaker 11: But in the US, you know, we're basically self sufficient
53:12
Speaker 11: and energy And the reason why that gas prices have
53:15
Speaker 11: been going up, for example, is that jet fuel prices
53:18
Speaker 11: are so high because of the disruption, say in Singapore
53:21
Speaker 11: that our refiners have been turning the knobs towards jet fuel,
53:24
Speaker 11: it away from gasoline a little bit.
53:26
Speaker 4: They can stop that pretty.
53:27
Speaker 11: Much as sued as the oil starts to land in Singapore.
53:30
Speaker 11: And so I think that we should see very quickly
53:33
Speaker 11: energy prices, gas prices go back to where they should be.
53:36
Speaker 11: And the thing that I've seen when I look at
53:38
Speaker 11: credit card data and other things that I can get
53:40
Speaker 11: for the private sector is that while people have been
53:42
Speaker 11: spending more money at gas stations. They've been spending more
53:46
Speaker 11: money and everything on everything else, which means that they're
53:48
Speaker 11: still very, very optimistic about the state of the economy,
53:51
Speaker 11: and they should be. If you look at GDP now
53:53
Speaker 11: right now, it's north of four percent. And so despite
53:55
Speaker 11: this disruption, all the momentum that we built with the
53:58
Speaker 11: big beautiful bill and as at everything else, is really
54:02
Speaker 11: what the main economic story of the US is.
54:05
Speaker 6: Television's Ryan Grimm is cracking up next to me. But wait,
54:08
Speaker 6: there's more. Let's rule the next clip.
54:10
Speaker 10: Consumer sentiments fell for the third straight month in the
54:13
Speaker 10: month of May. It was at a record low of
54:15
Speaker 10: forty four point eight. The Iran conflict on nerving people,
54:20
Speaker 10: fueling some worries about inflation. Has higher costs and elevated
54:23
Speaker 10: oil prices show up in people's pocketbook. What is the
54:28
Speaker 10: most important messaging that you can put out there for
54:32
Speaker 10: consumers to help sentiment here?
54:35
Speaker 6: Well, well, they call.
54:36
Speaker 11: It consumer sentiment, but I don't think those words mean
54:39
Speaker 11: what they think they mean anymore. We looked at the
54:42
Speaker 11: political affiliation of the people who were responding, and we
54:45
Speaker 11: found that like at the peak of Biden's stagflation.
54:48
Speaker 4: With inflation ready out of control.
54:50
Speaker 11: That Democrats in the survey had a sentiment index that
54:53
Speaker 11: was way above one hundred. Right now they're at thirty something,
54:57
Speaker 11: and then Republicans have stayed relatively steady throughout. But we
55:00
Speaker 11: find that basically the consumer sentiment indicator at the University
55:04
Speaker 11: of Michigan, it's just a political survey. And in fact,
55:08
Speaker 11: the correlation between what independents say and Democrats say is
55:11
Speaker 11: zero point eight or point nine. It's almost exactly perfectly correlated.
55:15
Speaker 11: And so what they've done is they've somehow devised a
55:17
Speaker 11: political survey that tells us how Democrats are feeling about things.
55:21
Speaker 4: If you want to look at.
55:22
Speaker 11: How people are thinking, you should go to the Conference
55:25
Speaker 11: Board consumer Confidence. That's the consumer confidence measure is actually
55:30
Speaker 11: the most reliable thing, and right now it's the highest
55:32
Speaker 11: to spend in a year.
55:34
Speaker 5: Right Listen, the consumer is happy because the consumer is
55:38
Speaker 5: spending more. And also the survey that shows shifts over time,
55:43
Speaker 5: it's just reflecting democrats shifting sentiments about the consumer from
55:47
Speaker 5: the perspective of the consumer over time.
55:50
Speaker 7: But then he also said that democrats and independence had
55:54
Speaker 7: basically the same answer when it came to consumer sentiment.
55:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, and so it's been going down with republic for
56:00
Speaker 6: a while too.
56:00
Speaker 7: But he says so because Democrats and independency both are
56:05
Speaker 7: way down on the economy, we should not listen to
56:07
Speaker 7: either of them for a gauge of reality. We should
56:10
Speaker 7: actually only look at the Republican sentiments score, which he
56:15
Speaker 7: didn't actually even mention. But if, as he said, Republican
56:19
Speaker 7: sentiment is kind of similar to what it was under Biden.
56:23
Speaker 7: Republicans were unhappy about the economy under Biden. So if
56:27
Speaker 7: they're still at the same level, that means Democrats and
56:31
Speaker 7: independence are unhappy about the economy, and Republicans are unhappy
56:35
Speaker 7: about the economy, but they're showing their optimism by spending more.
56:39
Speaker 7: So people think when they're at the grocery store and
56:42
Speaker 7: a bag is costing like ninety dollars that that is
56:47
Speaker 7: frustrating to them. No, in fact, that is a sign
56:51
Speaker 7: of your optimism in the economy.
56:53
Speaker 4: Ye, that you're paying for that.
56:55
Speaker 7: So we appreciate the hope you have and the optimism
56:59
Speaker 7: in the American dream. That is, what greater expression of
57:03
Speaker 7: the American dream could there be than a four in
57:06
Speaker 7: front of your kind of grocery tab.
57:08
Speaker 5: Well, he's talking about consumer confidence. Let's read from Axios.
57:11
Speaker 5: The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index fell point seven
57:14
Speaker 5: percentage point in May to ninety three point one, but
57:17
Speaker 5: it ticked down to a level that is still above
57:18
Speaker 5: where it stood as recently as January.
57:21
Speaker 6: So it's going down, but he.
57:22
Speaker 5: Thinks just because it's slightly better than where it was
57:24
Speaker 5: in January, that is better than looking at Yeah, was.
57:27
Speaker 4: The consumer confidence again from the from the Board.
57:31
Speaker 5: They have it at ninety three point one, but it's
57:34
Speaker 5: down point seven month over month, still higher than where
57:37
Speaker 5: it was in January, which is apparently what Kevin hasse
57:40
Speaker 5: is happy about. But let's also note I mean I'm
57:43
Speaker 5: reading from the Independent here. In April, for instance, the
57:46
Speaker 5: price for food eating at home rose two point nine percent,
57:48
Speaker 5: the highest year over year inflation rate for the category
57:51
Speaker 5: since August of twenty twenty three. Food away from home
57:53
Speaker 5: also increased three point six percent over the last year,
57:56
Speaker 5: and sixteen percent of Americans rate the country's economic conditions
58:01
Speaker 5: as good or excellent. That is the lowest figure since
58:04
Speaker 5: twenty twenty three, according to Gallop among Republicans. The Independent
58:08
Speaker 5: goes on to site an ap York poll taken recently.
58:11
Speaker 5: Approval of Trump's handling of the economy actually has fallen
58:13
Speaker 5: from sixty eight percent to seventy eight percent, I'm sorry,
58:16
Speaker 5: to sixty three percent. That's a pretty big job for
58:19
Speaker 5: Republicans during a Republican presidency.
58:22
Speaker 7: Ryan, Yeah, and I'm looking at the chart that he
58:24
Speaker 7: sent us to. But yeah, yeah, and look, people are happy.
58:30
Speaker 6: Compared to the Biden there.
58:32
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, so they're slightly happier than a few
58:35
Speaker 7: months ago. Yeah, but like they're back to where they
58:38
Speaker 7: were and where they were in like twenty twenty one.
58:41
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, and people were happy during the pandemic, but
58:44
Speaker 4: this Trump one. Look how people are happy if people
58:46
Speaker 4: were in Trump one.
58:47
Speaker 6: But I think that's all.
58:48
Speaker 7: I'll send this to the producers. Sweeking put it up
58:50
Speaker 7: in this little chart.
58:50
Speaker 8: Yeah.
58:51
Speaker 5: So this is an important point, though, because Republicans spent
58:53
Speaker 5: the Biden years making a very actually very reasonable argument
58:57
Speaker 5: that it was politically disastrous for Biden and then Kamala
59:01
Speaker 5: Harris to run on their economy when consumers didn't feel
59:05
Speaker 5: great about it, when consumers were upset about inflation. The
59:08
Speaker 5: Biden administration and then Kamala Harris were trying to.
59:11
Speaker 6: Say, your eyes are lying to you.
59:14
Speaker 8: Right.
59:15
Speaker 5: Don't believe what you think you see in the economy,
59:18
Speaker 5: don't believe what you say you're feeling.
59:20
Speaker 6: Just believe us things are good.
59:22
Speaker 5: That's a mistake that the Trump administration is making now
59:25
Speaker 5: as they try to stantial bleeding from the midterms and
59:28
Speaker 5: offset problems from the Iran War, which they thought would
59:32
Speaker 5: be I mean, they thought Iron War aside, if that
59:35
Speaker 5: had never happened. They thought people were going to get
59:37
Speaker 5: their tax refunds in April and May and feel really
59:41
Speaker 5: good about the tack cut bill. And now most calculations
59:45
Speaker 5: show that the rise in gas prices because of the
59:48
Speaker 5: Iron War has offset the savings from the quote one
59:51
Speaker 5: big beautiful bill for the average American and gas prices.
59:56
Speaker 5: This is another clip we want to bring you from
59:58
Speaker 5: a CNN analyst. What is going to happen in gas
1:00:02
Speaker 5: prices even if there is a lasting ceasefire negotiated D three.
1:00:08
Speaker 12: So how long is it going to be before we
1:00:10
Speaker 12: actually start to see some relief? Look at this, This
1:00:14
Speaker 12: is where we were before the wars started.
1:00:18
Speaker 6: This is where we are right now.
1:00:22
Speaker 12: There's a huge amount of time that it's going to take,
1:00:25
Speaker 12: according to the futures market, before we get back down
1:00:29
Speaker 12: to that sub seventy dollars.
1:00:31
Speaker 4: An oil level.
1:00:33
Speaker 6: Look at this twenty thirty two.
1:00:37
Speaker 12: So you want three dollars gas again, you're going to
1:00:40
Speaker 12: have to wait maybe six years. And so what does
1:00:43
Speaker 12: that mean for everything? Look at this, produce, clothing, airfare,
1:00:49
Speaker 12: gas shipping. All of these rely on high gas prices,
1:00:53
Speaker 12: high oil prices. All of them are going to continue
1:00:56
Speaker 12: to be more expensive as long as this lasts.
1:00:59
Speaker 6: I'm sorry, did I hear you correctly? Did you say
1:01:00
Speaker 6: twenty thirty two?
1:01:02
Speaker 13: Yeah, So if you look at this, this tells you
1:01:06
Speaker 13: what the oil market is predicting prices will be in
1:01:09
Speaker 13: the future. We don't get back down to this level
1:01:13
Speaker 13: until twenty thirty two.
1:01:15
Speaker 4: That's the prediction.
1:01:17
Speaker 5: Wall Street correspondent Ryan Grim standing by now to react
1:01:20
Speaker 5: to these oil futures. What do we think is that
1:01:23
Speaker 5: a reliable metric of what we can expect to see?
1:01:26
Speaker 7: I mean, we'll see, but like those high numbers are
1:01:28
Speaker 7: going to push an enormous amount of investment into clean energy. Ironically,
1:01:34
Speaker 7: because Trump, as one of his first acts, overturned the
1:01:38
Speaker 7: IRA and ripped out all of the government support the
1:01:42
Speaker 7: previous kind of neoliberal approach to addressing climate change was
1:01:49
Speaker 7: to do a carbon tax, which would increase the price
1:01:53
Speaker 7: of all carbon based fields and oil gas, and that
1:01:58
Speaker 7: increase would then kind of pressure consumers and businesses to
1:02:03
Speaker 7: move into the clean energy market. Like that was the
1:02:05
Speaker 7: original approach. People rioted in the streets over it there,
1:02:10
Speaker 7: and so policymakers were like, oh, actually, like making people's
1:02:14
Speaker 7: lives harder is not a popular political thing to do,
1:02:17
Speaker 7: and so our project is going to fail. Let's instead
1:02:21
Speaker 7: just do a lot of government investment and incentivizing into
1:02:24
Speaker 7: the clean energy industry. And then Trump ripped that apart.
1:02:27
Speaker 7: What Trump has done is gone back to the original
1:02:31
Speaker 7: carbon tax. What he describes on the screen. There is
1:02:35
Speaker 7: a six year, unrepealable carbon tax that was passed without
1:02:41
Speaker 7: going through Congress, without the president's signature, and you cannot
1:02:47
Speaker 7: repeal it.
1:02:48
Speaker 4: So the carbon tax is here, and it.
1:02:51
Speaker 7: Will have the policy effect of encouraging consumers to use
1:02:55
Speaker 7: less energy because they'll be broke, to buy more energy
1:02:59
Speaker 7: efficient vehicles and other devices, and also for businesses to
1:03:06
Speaker 7: have some certainty to say, oh, well, the price per
1:03:10
Speaker 7: kill a lot of electricity is this, I can actually
1:03:14
Speaker 7: jump in with my clean energy investment here. So Trump
1:03:18
Speaker 7: again one of the greatest eco terrorists to have ever lived,
1:03:24
Speaker 7: the greatest, one of the greatest, Like he's in a
1:03:27
Speaker 7: league of his own. There was that book how to
1:03:30
Speaker 7: blow up a pipeline?
1:03:31
Speaker 6: He just select Trump.
1:03:32
Speaker 4: He blew up them all, like you can just do
1:03:34
Speaker 4: one pipeline.
1:03:35
Speaker 5: Yeah, well okay, So on that point, Ryan, what are
1:03:38
Speaker 5: some of the reasons that it's going to take a
1:03:40
Speaker 5: long time. Actually, even just as we're talking here, US
1:03:43
Speaker 5: oil falls below eighty nine dollars on report around agreement
1:03:46
Speaker 5: would restore Hormuz traffic in one month.
1:03:50
Speaker 6: That's literally the headline on CNBC right now. I'm reading
1:03:53
Speaker 6: from a headline we're.
1:03:54
Speaker 5: About to talk about But why is it that it's
1:03:57
Speaker 5: kind of like turning the Titanic around to restore gas
1:03:59
Speaker 5: price as to where they were.
1:04:01
Speaker 7: Well, this it's been the greatest disruption of the oil
1:04:05
Speaker 7: market in the history of since the Industrial Revolution.
1:04:10
Speaker 5: And the technical aspects of getting refineries back up in
1:04:14
Speaker 5: the Middle East.
1:04:15
Speaker 7: Like the depth reserve, strategic reserves are like, have been
1:04:19
Speaker 7: burned through pretty significantly.
1:04:21
Speaker 5: Huge criticism of Joe Biden, by the way, from Republicans.
1:04:24
Speaker 4: And so and then Trump has been releasing them like crazy.
1:04:27
Speaker 4: The Asian.
1:04:28
Speaker 7: Asian markets have been have been pouring out their strategic reserves,
1:04:32
Speaker 7: China has been keeping its domestic and so like the
1:04:37
Speaker 7: amount of dislocation is more than we're feeling at the pump,
1:04:41
Speaker 7: like we're seeing a slight increase, but we're not feeling
1:04:43
Speaker 7: like the.
1:04:44
Speaker 4: Depth of the shortage that is out there.
1:04:47
Speaker 7: So you have to fill that, and we blew up
1:04:51
Speaker 7: a whole We and Iran blew up a bunch of
1:04:53
Speaker 7: oil and gas infrastructure throughout the region that produces oil
1:04:56
Speaker 7: and gas. Meanwhile, Ukraine has destroyed what like forty percent
1:05:00
Speaker 7: of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure, and it's blown up
1:05:06
Speaker 7: its export capacity in the Black Sea. These things in
1:05:13
Speaker 7: the physical world matter. We're also seeing it reflected in
1:05:16
Speaker 7: D four. The one way that Americans put more money
1:05:21
Speaker 7: in their pockets is as they get more equity in
1:05:25
Speaker 7: their in their home, they refinance and pull a little
1:05:29
Speaker 7: money out, gives you some breathing room. Demand for refinancing
1:05:34
Speaker 7: dropped eighteen percent according to CNBC, as mortgage rates hit
1:05:39
Speaker 7: their highest level since August. If you look at January,
1:05:44
Speaker 7: and my wife's a realtorn, so we tracked this pretty closely.
1:05:46
Speaker 7: Like things were January February, like things were finally starting
1:05:49
Speaker 7: to calm down, and like rates rates were pushing to five,
1:05:53
Speaker 7: like high fours, like that's that was about to like
1:05:56
Speaker 7: uncork the real estate mark it and we're now back
1:06:01
Speaker 7: to well over six and so it's and it's frozen again.
1:06:06
Speaker 5: Things are tough, and Republicans are in an even tougher
1:06:11
Speaker 5: position having to pretend they're not tough if that's what
1:06:13
Speaker 5: they choose to do, because they have to defend an
1:06:16
Speaker 5: unpopular war. As people are telling them. It's showing up
1:06:20
Speaker 5: in just about every poll, like pretty much every single poll,
1:06:23
Speaker 5: that they're unhappy with the state of the economy. This
1:06:26
Speaker 5: is obviously true, and again during the Biden administration, Republicans
1:06:30
Speaker 5: had a political advantage in saying Democrats are downplaying what
1:06:34
Speaker 5: you say, you feel and what you're experiencing, and so
1:06:37
Speaker 5: they're now finding themselves in the exact same position.
1:06:41
Speaker 4: Yes, indeed, all.
1:06:42
Speaker 5: Right, well, Ryan, let's bring in our guest or I'm sorry,
1:06:46
Speaker 5: let's talk a little bit more about elections. Then we're
1:06:48
Speaker 5: going to bring in our guests to talk about some
1:06:50
Speaker 5: elections as well some really interesting stuff happening around the country.
1:06:54
Speaker 5: We'll be right back, well, some historic results in Texas's
1:06:59
Speaker 5: Senate last night. The campaign between James Tallerico and Ken
1:07:03
Speaker 5: Paxton is already on. We're going to bring you some
1:07:07
Speaker 5: of how both campaigns are already going after each other.
1:07:10
Speaker 5: But first e one, let's just marinate for a moment
1:07:14
Speaker 5: on what happened to John Cornan, a multi term incumbent,
1:07:20
Speaker 5: a very establishment Republican, very very neo conservative and hawkish.
1:07:25
Speaker 6: He got absolutely blown out by.
1:07:28
Speaker 5: Attorney General Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was endorsed
1:07:32
Speaker 5: at the last moment by Donald Trump. He would have
1:07:34
Speaker 5: won without the endorsement in all likelihood. Trump right now
1:07:38
Speaker 5: is also already offering some kind words for John Cornyn,
1:07:42
Speaker 5: saying that he's his friend. I think is what he said.
1:07:44
Speaker 5: He's still his friend. But the results here were really,
1:07:48
Speaker 5: really interesting, and it's setting up what could be a
1:07:51
Speaker 5: competitive race for Democrats. We'll talk about that in just
1:07:55
Speaker 5: one moment, but let's let's start here with this clip
1:07:59
Speaker 5: of Fox News. This is Bill Hammer explaining Trump is
1:08:02
Speaker 5: already You'll be shocked to know posted screenshots from the
1:08:05
Speaker 5: segment on True Social because Bill Hemmer is walking through
1:08:09
Speaker 5: Trump's track record of endorsements in the twenty twenty six primaries,
1:08:15
Speaker 5: and we talked about Massey. We've talked about that Massi
1:08:17
Speaker 5: race a lot. We talked about it last week when
1:08:20
Speaker 5: it happened. We've talked about Bill Cassidy. Let's zoom out
1:08:23
Speaker 5: and look at exactly how successful Trump has been in
1:08:28
Speaker 5: twenty twenty six.
1:08:29
Speaker 14: This is his scorecard. Okay, he has endorsed eight governors. Now,
1:08:34
Speaker 14: some of these races weren't real closed and have a
1:08:36
Speaker 14: lot of competition, but some of them did. I mean,
1:08:38
Speaker 14: we saw what happened in Louisiana the primary of Bill Cassidy.
1:08:40
Speaker 14: We saw what happened a week ago tonight with Tom
1:08:43
Speaker 14: Massey in Kentucky, and now we're seeing it again tonight.
1:08:45
Speaker 8: Okay.
1:08:46
Speaker 14: In Texas governor level, Trump endorsed eight, he won eight times.
1:08:50
Speaker 6: US House one hundred and one endorsed.
1:08:52
Speaker 4: He won.
1:08:54
Speaker 14: Yeah, sorry, one hundred and one endorsed in the House,
1:08:57
Speaker 14: and he won one hundred and one. Let me put
1:08:58
Speaker 14: on the pencil right here and show you this US
1:09:01
Speaker 14: Senate Sean. He has endorsed eight candidates, and prior to
1:09:05
Speaker 14: tonight he had won eight times. And now you can
1:09:08
Speaker 14: take the endorsement from eight to nine endorsed and from
1:09:13
Speaker 14: eight to nine winner Ken Paxson was outspent nine to one,
1:09:19
Speaker 14: got the endorsement from Trump, got the endorsement of Wesley Hunt,
1:09:22
Speaker 14: the congressman who got knocked out two and a half
1:09:24
Speaker 14: months ago, and now we got this set up attackson
1:09:27
Speaker 14: in tel Rico. Many Republicans felt if John Corny could
1:09:31
Speaker 14: win tonight, that he could be an easy winner for
1:09:34
Speaker 14: Tall Rico.
1:09:34
Speaker 4: We'll never know that now, and a.
1:09:36
Speaker 14: Lot of Republicans felt that they could save a lot
1:09:38
Speaker 14: of money to if corn In won.
1:09:40
Speaker 4: But that did not happen.
1:09:42
Speaker 14: Here's what will happen seann in November in Texas, probably
1:09:46
Speaker 14: the most expensive Senate race that we have seen ever.
1:09:50
Speaker 5: So Trump posted that untrue social based saying thank you
1:09:53
Speaker 5: to America for what is this? Let me read it exactly,
1:09:57
Speaker 5: thank you America for this unprecedented support DJT.
1:10:01
Speaker 8: Now.
1:10:02
Speaker 5: He also said, we'll explain a little bit why in
1:10:05
Speaker 5: again just a moment said he congratulated John Cornan for
1:10:08
Speaker 5: having run a strong and powerful race.
1:10:11
Speaker 6: Just keep that in your mind. We're gonna watch now how.
1:10:15
Speaker 5: Candidates Paxton, Cornan and then Tallarico responded to these results
1:10:21
Speaker 5: last night, which again were an absolute blowout.
1:10:24
Speaker 15: My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have
1:10:27
Speaker 15: ever nominated. He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is.
1:10:34
Speaker 15: He goes by a few names that you may all
1:10:36
Speaker 15: have heard of. Some people know him as Tofu tall Rico.
1:10:41
Speaker 15: Some people call him sixth gender Jimmy. I've even heard
1:10:46
Speaker 15: some people call him James Tellafrico, and others refer to
1:10:51
Speaker 15: him simply as low T.
1:10:52
Speaker 4: Tall Rico.
1:10:54
Speaker 16: I've spent most of my time in the state building
1:10:59
Speaker 16: the Republican Party in Texas, and he's in the US Senate,
1:11:03
Speaker 16: and I've always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend
1:11:07
Speaker 16: to do so again in this general election. I've said
1:11:12
Speaker 16: throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas,
1:11:18
Speaker 16: and they've made their decision.
1:11:19
Speaker 17: Ken Paxton embodies everything that's wrong with our political system.
1:11:24
Speaker 17: He was impeached by his own party for using his
1:11:28
Speaker 17: public office to enrich himself and his donors at our expense.
1:11:33
Speaker 17: And that kind of corruption is the rot at the
1:11:37
Speaker 17: core of this broken system. It's why we can't afford anything.
1:11:41
Speaker 17: It's why we can't get ahead no matter how hard
1:11:44
Speaker 17: we work, because billionaires buy these politicians like Ken Paxton,
1:11:50
Speaker 17: and then these puppet politicians turn around and rig the
1:11:53
Speaker 17: rules of the game and favor of the billionaires at
1:11:56
Speaker 17: our expense.
1:11:57
Speaker 4: And so this has.
1:11:58
Speaker 17: Been happening for fifty years. In this mega donors and
1:12:01
Speaker 17: their puppet politicians had been stealing from the American people,
1:12:05
Speaker 17: from the people of Texas, stealing the wealth that we
1:12:07
Speaker 17: created through their bribes, their bailouts, and their billionaire tax breaks.
1:12:13
Speaker 17: And so I look forward to not only run against
1:12:16
Speaker 17: Keim Paxton, but running against the broken system that he embodies.
1:12:20
Speaker 6: Now, this is an almost.
1:12:21
Speaker 5: Thirty point blowout right now as the results are. As
1:12:25
Speaker 5: a results stand, we're talking Paxson margins in the sixties
1:12:28
Speaker 5: Cornyn margins thirty six point three percent, Paxson right now
1:12:32
Speaker 5: sixty three point seven percent. Last I checked, Cornan had
1:12:34
Speaker 5: actually barely won Dallas, which is shocking. But I mean,
1:12:38
Speaker 5: it's not shocking, but it's shocking if you're John Cornyn.
1:12:41
Speaker 5: A couple of points that at Taniel made on X
1:12:45
Speaker 5: he said, as a couple of weeks ago, no US
1:12:47
Speaker 5: senator had lost reelection in a primary since twenty twelve.
1:12:50
Speaker 5: Now GOP voters have ousted two senators in over ten
1:12:53
Speaker 5: days over ten days Cassidy and Louisiana and Cornyan in Texas.
1:12:57
Speaker 5: Daniel added, Cornan is on track to who suffered the
1:12:59
Speaker 5: large defeat for a US senator in a primary.
1:13:02
Speaker 6: Since nineteen seventy eight. And in that.
1:13:05
Speaker 5: Nineteen seventy eight that was a Democratic primary Montana won
1:13:08
Speaker 5: by Max Bacchus, the defeated incumbent had just been appointed,
1:13:12
Speaker 5: nothing like the longtime Cornyan. Seth keshel On X also
1:13:17
Speaker 5: added the Paxton margins in El Paso, Hidalgo, Harris and
1:13:20
Speaker 5: most of the Rio Grand Valley are out running his
1:13:22
Speaker 5: overall statewide margin and are highly suggested that a MAGA
1:13:25
Speaker 5: candidate retains high Latino support and trends in line with
1:13:29
Speaker 5: trends developing over the past six years. That's a pretty
1:13:31
Speaker 5: interesting point, actually, and well we'll see how much that stands.
1:13:35
Speaker 5: But at least some evidence here. And Ryan, there's so
1:13:38
Speaker 5: much more we could talk about. The dynamics between Paxon
1:13:41
Speaker 5: and Tallarico. I'm sorry, Paxon and Cornyn very interesting. Paxon
1:13:45
Speaker 5: has a colorful history, to say the least. I do
1:13:48
Speaker 5: want to put E four up on the screen. This
1:13:50
Speaker 5: is the Heritage Action scorecard of John Cornyan. He has
1:13:55
Speaker 5: a score of thirty five percent in this latest session,
1:14:00
Speaker 5: and that is basically just a barometer. His lifetime score
1:14:02
Speaker 5: is sixty eight percent, pretty low. That's just a barometer
1:14:05
Speaker 5: of how often he is voting with the kind of
1:14:08
Speaker 5: grass roots Heritage Action isn't the same as a Heritage Foundation.
1:14:11
Speaker 5: It's obviously part of the Heritage Foundation, but it scores
1:14:14
Speaker 5: on largely a lot of grassroots voats that senators are
1:14:17
Speaker 5: taking to be in line with the base. The NRSC
1:14:21
Speaker 5: came in for Cornyn, they came in for Cassidy. National
1:14:25
Speaker 5: Republicans put their support behind Corners. They thought he was
1:14:27
Speaker 5: more electable. So let me just stop with this info
1:14:30
Speaker 5: dump and get your reaction to this blowout for Packstone.
1:14:33
Speaker 7: Cornyn he is a very talented politician, is like kind
1:14:38
Speaker 7: of like he's an oil guy. He's a came out
1:14:41
Speaker 7: of the kind of legal Texas legal world, which is
1:14:44
Speaker 7: its own kind of mafia country club Republican type, yes, and.
1:14:49
Speaker 6: Very hawkish on Iran, very hawkish in Ukraine.
1:14:52
Speaker 4: He's a lot of his club Republican.
1:14:55
Speaker 8: Yeah.
1:14:55
Speaker 6: Yeah, his heritage score I was looking at.
1:14:57
Speaker 5: Some of it was his ongoing support for the word
1:14:59
Speaker 5: UK which was being scored as a negative and.
1:15:02
Speaker 7: That would track and you know, number two in the
1:15:05
Speaker 7: Senate for a stretch nearly became majority or minority leader. Uh,
1:15:11
Speaker 7: just a year ago to see him get you know,
1:15:14
Speaker 7: he beat Paxson in the first round by like seven
1:15:18
Speaker 7: points or something like that.
1:15:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, it was split with Colin Allread. It was a
1:15:21
Speaker 6: three way race, and.
1:15:21
Speaker 7: It looked like Trump might endorse Cornyn and push Paxon out,
1:15:26
Speaker 7: and Paxton, uh was like, I'm staying in no matter
1:15:29
Speaker 7: what Trump does. And and then Trump had this crazy
1:15:33
Speaker 7: thing like, hey, if you pass this, like.
1:15:37
Speaker 4: You know, the Safe Act, the voting.
1:15:39
Speaker 7: Reform he wants, Yeah, that he would endorse.
1:15:43
Speaker 6: Yeah, he said he would drop out of the race.
1:15:45
Speaker 7: Yeah, and uh oh, yes, that Paxton would drop out
1:15:48
Speaker 7: of the race.
1:15:48
Speaker 4: And that that really worked on Trump because Trump was like,
1:15:50
Speaker 4: I do that.
1:15:51
Speaker 5: Well work on voters too, because I think what people
1:15:53
Speaker 5: see in John Cornyn is this guy.
1:15:55
Speaker 6: Who's been in the Senate I just can't for the
1:15:57
Speaker 6: sake of.
1:15:57
Speaker 5: Power, right, and he doesn't really care about what they
1:15:59
Speaker 5: care about. And Paxton doing that endears himself to Texas
1:16:03
Speaker 5: Republican voters. If you're voting in the Republican primary in Texas.
1:16:07
Speaker 5: You are probably somebody who cares about the Save Act,
1:16:09
Speaker 5: and here you have somebody who appears to be I mean,
1:16:12
Speaker 5: it's obviously a campaign move, but he appears to be
1:16:14
Speaker 5: sort of selflessly putting his own campaign on the line
1:16:18
Speaker 5: to get something that they care about past. And it's
1:16:21
Speaker 5: very interesting with Paxton because there's a I always cite
1:16:25
Speaker 5: that Thomas Massey craziest son of a bitch in.
1:16:27
Speaker 6: The race line. That's what Paxton is seen as.
1:16:31
Speaker 5: People don't love Ken Paxton, but the NRC, for example,
1:16:36
Speaker 5: has been already they're already embracing Paxston, of course, but
1:16:39
Speaker 5: they were running against Paxton on.
1:16:42
Speaker 6: A very personal level.
1:16:43
Speaker 5: I'm looking right here at a July tenth, twenty twenty
1:16:46
Speaker 5: five rapid response release from NRSC giving some background on
1:16:50
Speaker 5: Ken Paxton, who they said, quote put his family through.
1:16:54
Speaker 5: What he's put his family through is truly repulsive, and
1:16:56
Speaker 5: discussing no one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has,
1:16:59
Speaker 5: and we pray for or she chooses to stand up
1:17:01
Speaker 5: for herself and her family they're in this difficult time.
1:17:03
Speaker 5: They said, yes, they've scrubbed a lot of this from
1:17:06
Speaker 5: their websites. I went and checked this post yesterday because
1:17:09
Speaker 5: this guy's from American Bridge accurate. They are scrubbing from
1:17:11
Speaker 5: their website their attacks on Paxton. So nerc for example,
1:17:15
Speaker 5: said Angela. Paxson's divorce petition accuses Ken Paxson of adultery
1:17:18
Speaker 5: and says the couple stopped living together. In June twenty
1:17:21
Speaker 5: twenty four, Paxson's former chief of staff testified that Paxon
1:17:24
Speaker 5: confessed to her and other staff members he was having
1:17:26
Speaker 5: an affair with his mistress. Impeachment articles in the Texas
1:17:28
Speaker 5: Legislature alleged Paxton used the alias Dave p for a
1:17:32
Speaker 5: fake over account he used to secretly see his mistress.
1:17:35
Speaker 5: Packson was also accused of using secret emails and burner
1:17:37
Speaker 5: phones to try and cover his tracks. Paxson allegedly used
1:17:40
Speaker 5: his pal Nate Paul, who was recently convicted of bank fraud,
1:17:43
Speaker 5: to help hide his affair and provide his mistress with
1:17:45
Speaker 5: an employment with employment in Austin so that Paxton could
1:17:47
Speaker 5: be closer to her. Twenty articles of impeachment were filed
1:17:50
Speaker 5: against Paxton and the Texas Legislature over alleged bribery, abusive
1:17:54
Speaker 5: power obstruction, of Justice. Paxson wasn't dieted on security fraud
1:17:58
Speaker 5: charges that were later dropped after he paid three hundred
1:17:59
Speaker 5: that dollars in restitution and completed community service. He's got
1:18:03
Speaker 5: a mug shot and finally from the NRSC Packson refused
1:18:06
Speaker 5: to disclose multiple out of state properties in his twenty
1:18:09
Speaker 5: twenty three financial disclosure, including one point six million dollars
1:18:12
Speaker 5: luxury million dollar luxury hideaway. Okay, so this is what
1:18:15
Speaker 5: James tall Rico now has to work with. To be clear,
1:18:19
Speaker 5: he would have had a whole lot to work with
1:18:20
Speaker 5: with John Cornan. There's absolutely no question about that. John
1:18:24
Speaker 5: Cornyn is so pro war, so so very pro war.
1:18:30
Speaker 5: He his all kinds of things that are problematic with
1:18:33
Speaker 5: Republican voters but also probably with the general population.
1:18:36
Speaker 6: So Ryan tall Rico is now already.
1:18:38
Speaker 5: Trying to make is trying to make amends with corn voters.
1:18:43
Speaker 5: He said last night you have a place in our campaign.
1:18:47
Speaker 5: This is the Senate map. This was updated last night.
1:18:51
Speaker 6: Texas. Now lean are not likely? Are and Ryan?
1:18:56
Speaker 5: We have some polls from around the country that show,
1:18:59
Speaker 5: I mean house Seriously, the Senate is in jeopardy for Republicans.
1:19:01
Speaker 5: There's a lot of time left in this race around
1:19:04
Speaker 5: working end, things could change. Or talked earlier in the
1:19:06
Speaker 5: show about how hard it is to turn the ship around.
1:19:08
Speaker 5: But uh, there's just no question that this puts Texas
1:19:11
Speaker 5: in play. I would still say it's one of the
1:19:13
Speaker 5: least likely to flip, but it's it's definitely in play.
1:19:16
Speaker 7: And they have to flip what four seats because they're
1:19:19
Speaker 7: down three and they have to they have to take
1:19:21
Speaker 7: jd Vance out of the out of that catbird seat.
1:19:24
Speaker 7: I still find it hard to believe that Democrats are
1:19:29
Speaker 7: going to win Texas, But good lord, if Democrats were
1:19:32
Speaker 7: ever going to win Texas, like this would kind of
1:19:35
Speaker 7: be the way to do it. Now, tall Rico may have,
1:19:38
Speaker 7: you know, too much kind of twenty twenty era, you know,
1:19:41
Speaker 7: woke funny stuff that they can they can hit him with. Yeah,
1:19:45
Speaker 7: because Tallerico's big thing is I'm going to win independence
1:19:47
Speaker 7: and some and some Republicans. But then when they see
1:19:51
Speaker 7: his like past stuff vegan and like yesterday.
1:19:55
Speaker 4: He's like, I eat barbecue. I've been eating barbecue for
1:19:57
Speaker 4: six generations.
1:19:58
Speaker 7: But then there's the clip that we did a vegan campaign,
1:20:01
Speaker 7: so like and that's going to work on some Texans. Absolutely,
1:20:05
Speaker 7: the mask isn't going to help, even though that was
1:20:08
Speaker 7: you know, during the time people are masked up, but
1:20:10
Speaker 7: not most people in Texas or a lot of people
1:20:12
Speaker 7: in Texas were not.
1:20:13
Speaker 4: We'll see one for him. So yeah.
1:20:15
Speaker 7: So and while two Senate Republicans have been beaten, I
1:20:21
Speaker 7: would even put the number it at three because Tom
1:20:25
Speaker 7: tillis uh. The North Carolina Center was forced to basically
1:20:32
Speaker 7: retire as a result, So we could put up E ten.
1:20:36
Speaker 4: This is North Carolina polls.
1:20:38
Speaker 7: The late latest poll has Roy Cooper up by eleven
1:20:43
Speaker 7: in North Carolina and making it is it is maybe
1:20:46
Speaker 7: the most likely flip that Democrats have, and then Maine
1:20:51
Speaker 7: being uh, this maybe the second most likely opportunity. But interestingly, Alaska,
1:21:02
Speaker 7: which you saw on that map, was leaning Republican. New Pole.
1:21:06
Speaker 7: We can put up E nine here. Mary Peltola, very
1:21:09
Speaker 7: popular former member of Congress. She's not in Congress.
1:21:13
Speaker 4: Anymore, right, she's still in Congress.
1:21:18
Speaker 7: Anyway, she's running for Senate. And she remember she won
1:21:23
Speaker 7: her Alaska.
1:21:25
Speaker 6: She's been out since twenty five.
1:21:26
Speaker 7: Yeah, she wanted her Alaska House race as a pro
1:21:29
Speaker 7: Fish candidate, which I kind of love.
1:21:31
Speaker 6: Your former fishing good.
1:21:33
Speaker 7: Yeah, I love pro fish, although kill a lot of them.
1:21:38
Speaker 6: So some release in Ryan Grim's boat.
1:21:43
Speaker 4: Some hypocrisy.
1:21:43
Speaker 7: There plenty of catch release too, So Newpole has her
1:21:46
Speaker 7: up forty eight, forty four.
1:21:50
Speaker 6: That's margin of error. I think Alaska polling is hard, but.
1:21:52
Speaker 7: Yeah, but so you know, certainly in the race Ohio,
1:21:55
Speaker 7: you can put up eleven shared Brown very popular demarkt
1:22:00
Speaker 7: in Ohio.
1:22:02
Speaker 4: Eleven though has him.
1:22:04
Speaker 7: He's been up in a couple of polls, down and
1:22:06
Speaker 7: down in most of them. Ohio might be just too
1:22:10
Speaker 7: Republican to overcome even despite this, you know, just despite
1:22:15
Speaker 7: the blue wave that we're likely to see, and Brown
1:22:18
Speaker 7: as getting older. He's not the same guy, not the
1:22:21
Speaker 7: same campaigner that he used to be. And then of
1:22:24
Speaker 7: course there's there's E twelve, which is in Nebraska. The
1:22:29
Speaker 7: fascinating poll came out in that race showing that if
1:22:33
Speaker 7: Pete Ricketts, the Republican, was put up against the Democratic nominee,
1:22:40
Speaker 7: he'd win by something like sixteen points.
1:22:43
Speaker 4: But he was down.
1:22:44
Speaker 7: Five or so to Osborne, five or six to Osborne,
1:22:48
Speaker 7: and the Democratic nominee has dropped out and endorsed Osborne. Interestingly,
1:22:55
Speaker 7: that that Democratic nominee, and the.
1:22:57
Speaker 6: She hasn't she said she's going.
1:23:02
Speaker 7: She just endorsed the independent candidate in Nebraska, one Austin Allman,
1:23:09
Speaker 7: who's my old intern to no way at the intercept
1:23:14
Speaker 7: he launched there, but in that there is a Democratic candidate,
1:23:17
Speaker 7: and so Austin did this differently. Osborne was always the
1:23:21
Speaker 7: independent candidate, and Democrats were like, all right, we can't
1:23:23
Speaker 7: beat Rickets, We're just going to give up.
1:23:25
Speaker 8: Yeah.
1:23:25
Speaker 5: Well, and Osborne always had support from what's the same
1:23:28
Speaker 5: people backing Platinum, Right, some of the same consultants fight.
1:23:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, the consultancy it's called.
1:23:33
Speaker 5: Fight populist left. But Osbourne himself is not a leftist.
1:23:37
Speaker 4: Right, it would be fair to say some heterodox positions
1:23:40
Speaker 4: for sure.
1:23:40
Speaker 5: Yeah, but I actually think that's I mean a sign
1:23:43
Speaker 5: of Democrats understand, not democrats, but some in the consultant
1:23:46
Speaker 5: class starting to understand a bit more how to knock
1:23:50
Speaker 5: down Republicans like Pete Ricketts. And it's the same thing
1:23:54
Speaker 5: with Republicans like Susan Collins. There's almost like a maturity
1:23:57
Speaker 5: to it. I don't want to sound like patronizing, but
1:24:00
Speaker 5: there was so much just inability to overcome some of
1:24:04
Speaker 5: these like cultural gaps between a guy like dan Osburne
1:24:07
Speaker 5: who might be literally working on the factory floor was
1:24:10
Speaker 5: Kellogg's right, and has just different cultural opinions than most
1:24:15
Speaker 5: elite democrats and most leftists. Frankly, there was a lack
1:24:19
Speaker 5: of ability or willingness to overcome some of those like
1:24:23
Speaker 5: to build some of those bridges, and now I think
1:24:25
Speaker 5: that's kind of been like out the window, or at
1:24:28
Speaker 5: least in some of these races, they're realizing, hey, there's
1:24:32
Speaker 5: a better way.
1:24:33
Speaker 4: Or yeah, they're like, you know what, we have zero chance,
1:24:35
Speaker 4: so what do we have to lose?
1:24:37
Speaker 5: Right, He's kind of the economic leftism and cultural centrism
1:24:41
Speaker 5: or like center raism that's reflective I think where a
1:24:45
Speaker 5: lot of Americans are right now, especially in states with
1:24:47
Speaker 5: heavy rural areas and big like agricultural interests and that
1:24:51
Speaker 5: sort of thing. So it's really that is I think
1:24:55
Speaker 5: this is one of the most interesting races to watch.
1:24:56
Speaker 5: I definitely want to do a Nebraska trip as we
1:24:59
Speaker 5: continue covering this guy.
1:25:00
Speaker 4: Julian was just out there.
1:25:01
Speaker 6: Yeah, I saw I saw in a.
1:25:05
Speaker 4: Couple of the Texas races.
1:25:06
Speaker 6: Yeah, I was gonna ask Al Green.
1:25:07
Speaker 7: Yeah, So put up e seven long time anti Zionist,
1:25:12
Speaker 7: among other things, Democrat al Green faced a challenger who
1:25:17
Speaker 7: had a bunch of crypto money and had the support
1:25:21
Speaker 7: of pro Israel lobby and was beaten fairly handily.
1:25:26
Speaker 4: Al Green a very eccentric kind of.
1:25:30
Speaker 6: She was like waving his cane at Trump during the
1:25:31
Speaker 6: City of Union.
1:25:32
Speaker 4: I saw somebody pointing out that there were five.
1:25:36
Speaker 7: So when Marjorie Taylor Green introduced her Ban on Weapons
1:25:40
Speaker 7: Amendment to ban weapon sales to Israel, five people voted
1:25:44
Speaker 7: for it. Marjorie Taylor Green, al Green, Thomas Massey, summer Lee,
1:25:54
Speaker 7: and one other who.
1:25:56
Speaker 6: Was the other one?
1:25:59
Speaker 4: Maybe or Omar?
1:26:00
Speaker 6: Yeah, that sounds right.
1:26:03
Speaker 7: And Marjorie Taylor Green, Algreen, and Thomas Massey gone.
1:26:11
Speaker 4: Summerly.
1:26:12
Speaker 7: I guess the good news out of that Summerly played
1:26:14
Speaker 7: a huge role in electing Chris rab in Philadelphia.
1:26:17
Speaker 4: Who would who would add to that vote total?
1:26:20
Speaker 18: Right?
1:26:22
Speaker 4: Did?
1:26:22
Speaker 7: I guess to leave it? Omar didn't both vote for him.
1:26:25
Speaker 7: I'm going to look that one up. So the New
1:26:29
Speaker 7: York Times portrayed it as like this generational divide, like
1:26:32
Speaker 7: al Green's old and the crypto apac person's young. It's
1:26:37
Speaker 7: like I think there's something more going on than just
1:26:38
Speaker 7: age in this one.
1:26:40
Speaker 5: And then Jasmine Crockett came in Christian We have that
1:26:43
Speaker 5: Al Green's opponent. I don't think we have the video,
1:26:46
Speaker 5: but Jasmine Crockett cut an ad for the crypto groups,
1:26:50
Speaker 5: which is amazing because one of the big criticisms of
1:26:53
Speaker 5: Crockett in the Tallarico primary was that she was a crypto.
1:26:58
Speaker 7: Congress Crypto spent like five million, I think in this race,
1:27:01
Speaker 7: or some insane amount of money.
1:27:02
Speaker 6: He's one of the Yeah, and they're doing that with
1:27:04
Speaker 6: Sert They have.
1:27:05
Speaker 4: Like endless fake money, so they're like, yeah.
1:27:07
Speaker 6: It's a little Sam bankin three D.
1:27:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's get this crypto critic out of here.
1:27:12
Speaker 5: Marine Galindo eight I don't know that we covered a
1:27:15
Speaker 5: crystal and Sager covered the story.
1:27:17
Speaker 6: It was so bizarre.
1:27:18
Speaker 5: She was saying weird things about wanting to put Zionists
1:27:20
Speaker 5: in concentration camps. Weird, weird candidate. Some strange last minute
1:27:26
Speaker 5: money came into this race from Republicans from Republicans, so
1:27:29
Speaker 5: she lost booster as she lost by about twenty points
1:27:33
Speaker 5: to Johnny Garcia.
1:27:35
Speaker 4: So Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief.
1:27:37
Speaker 7: They did not want to see her sneak into the
1:27:41
Speaker 7: general election.
1:27:42
Speaker 5: And leftists started to pay attention, Like I saw his
1:27:44
Speaker 5: song was coming out against Galindo, another piker and other people.
1:27:48
Speaker 4: Yeah, really concentration camps, yep, get out of here with this.
1:27:52
Speaker 5: Yeah, we should also mention chip roy E six just
1:27:55
Speaker 5: to again come full circle with what we were talking
1:27:58
Speaker 5: about in regards to Trump endorsements. Chip roy is one
1:28:01
Speaker 5: of the most people are gonna get angry at me
1:28:04
Speaker 5: for saying this. Spiritually, MAGA Republicans in Congress because chip
1:28:09
Speaker 5: Roy is sort of like a Mike Lee. He was
1:28:12
Speaker 5: Ted Cruz's chief of staff actually here in DC. But
1:28:14
Speaker 5: he lost his primary for Texas Attorney General. You can
1:28:18
Speaker 5: see his voters supported him in his district, that's what
1:28:21
Speaker 5: the map shows on the screen. But he lost pretty
1:28:24
Speaker 5: by a healthy margin to a MAGA backed candidate. Because
1:28:30
Speaker 5: chip Roy did come out against Trump a couple of
1:28:33
Speaker 5: times like occasionally, I think is how Politico described it,
1:28:36
Speaker 5: but in ways that made people in the magabase feel
1:28:40
Speaker 5: like he didn't he wasn't listening to them, he was
1:28:43
Speaker 5: giving them the middle finger, he didn't care about them,
1:28:45
Speaker 5: and that is I mean, MAGA is extremely sensitive to
1:28:48
Speaker 5: that and just to be charitable for one moment. The
1:28:51
Speaker 5: reason MAGA has some of these litmus tests just think pragmatically,
1:28:56
Speaker 5: is because in Trump's first term there were people who
1:28:59
Speaker 5: were July like trying to subvert his quote agenda, including
1:29:04
Speaker 5: his chiefs of staff like John Kelly, who turned out
1:29:08
Speaker 5: to be disloyal, very disloyal, as Trump would say. And
1:29:11
Speaker 5: so that's actually why MAGA goes along with Trump on
1:29:14
Speaker 5: some of these litmus tests, even if Thomas Massey and
1:29:17
Speaker 5: Chip Roy are are kind of more Maga than Trump sometimes,
1:29:21
Speaker 5: which is a misnomer because Trump is maga, but are
1:29:23
Speaker 5: sort of more down the line in line with economic
1:29:29
Speaker 5: or not economic, but with kind of right wing populism
1:29:32
Speaker 5: how it's defined. Chip Roy is, you know, he's gotten
1:29:35
Speaker 5: I think I saw APAC tracker, like seventeen thousand dollars
1:29:37
Speaker 5: from APAC over time. But he's also gone against the
1:29:40
Speaker 5: Republican establishment on a lot of war questions, a lot
1:29:42
Speaker 5: of spending questions.
1:29:43
Speaker 6: He's a fiscal hawk.
1:29:45
Speaker 5: He was like the last remaining member of the Freedom
1:29:47
Speaker 5: Caucus that kind of represents what the Freedom Caucus used
1:29:50
Speaker 5: to be. It's just he's out. He couldn't even make
1:29:54
Speaker 5: it through the primer Is.
1:29:55
Speaker 4: It all Trump?
1:29:56
Speaker 7: It's just to here Trump, a little bit of criticism
1:29:59
Speaker 7: of Trump, and that's it for him.
1:30:00
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's really all it was, because it
1:30:02
Speaker 5: feels like you might be someone that can't be trusted.
1:30:06
Speaker 5: And this is again I'm just I actually have always
1:30:10
Speaker 5: admired trip Roy because he's one of those people who's
1:30:12
Speaker 5: very principled, like he's not going against some of the
1:30:15
Speaker 5: people you believe, one of the very few people you believe.
1:30:18
Speaker 5: He believes what he's saying. So you can disagree with him,
1:30:20
Speaker 5: but you're not doubting that trip Roy believes what he
1:30:23
Speaker 5: says he believes, and then he votes as he believes,
1:30:25
Speaker 5: like on spending and those sorts of things, and so
1:30:27
Speaker 5: he's massy like in that sense, but more conservative and
1:30:30
Speaker 5: less libertarians. So when you criticize Trump, people say, all right,
1:30:35
Speaker 5: then you are going to undermine that you might undermine
1:30:37
Speaker 5: the Trump agenda. And I'm not taking that risk anymore
1:30:39
Speaker 5: because they believe the left has gotten to a point
1:30:42
Speaker 5: where they want to subvert the left that every single stop,
1:30:45
Speaker 5: with every breath, and they don't want someone who might
1:30:48
Speaker 5: be siding against Trump it feels like that means they're
1:30:50
Speaker 5: siding against them, and people take it really personally.
1:30:54
Speaker 6: So that's what's going on in Maga. I don't agree
1:30:57
Speaker 6: with a lot of it, obviously.
1:30:58
Speaker 7: I just said, how are Maga voters going to figure
1:31:01
Speaker 7: out what to think?
1:31:02
Speaker 4: When Trump stops telling them what to think?
1:31:04
Speaker 5: He will not stop telling them what people get it
1:31:06
Speaker 5: from beyond the grave.
1:31:07
Speaker 7: There will be Trump like reading through exactly they will go.
1:31:13
Speaker 6: Trump will be entombed like Lenin and people everything.
1:31:16
Speaker 7: So but so anybody who wants to cite Trump will
1:31:18
Speaker 7: be able to cite him.
1:31:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's true. Also there will be Trump GPT. You
1:31:22
Speaker 6: just wait, it'll it'll tell us. All right.
1:31:25
Speaker 5: That was a long block, but there were so many
1:31:27
Speaker 5: interesting races last night, both on the left and the right.
1:31:31
Speaker 6: But I think it's it's fair to say.
1:31:33
Speaker 5: Trump's one hundred percent record Senate House primaries right now.
1:31:37
Speaker 6: It tells you where the basis.
1:31:39
Speaker 7: And we ironically don't do enough kind of election content here,
1:31:42
Speaker 7: so we're going to make sure you get more than
1:31:44
Speaker 7: your fill today. Uh, let's let's move on to an
1:31:47
Speaker 7: interesting race in California that pit the deep Triple C
1:31:51
Speaker 7: against the aggressive populist world and Graham Platner getting hit
1:31:56
Speaker 7: by the Democratic establishment. In just a moment, we're going
1:32:01
Speaker 7: to be joined by Randy Vegas, who is a Democratic
1:32:04
Speaker 7: congressional candidate in California trying to flip a red seat.
1:32:08
Speaker 4: He's opposed by.
1:32:10
Speaker 7: The D Triple C in that race, but is actually
1:32:12
Speaker 7: pulling a little bit ahead as the backing of the
1:32:14
Speaker 7: Working Families Party Bernie Sanders, AOC Progressive caucus, and so
1:32:17
Speaker 7: it's a real establishment kind of outsider contest, the same
1:32:22
Speaker 7: kind of contest we saw in Maine between Graham Plattner
1:32:25
Speaker 7: and Janet Mills, which we all saw how that one ended,
1:32:28
Speaker 7: with Mills suspending her campaign and Platner cruising to victory.
1:32:33
Speaker 7: But some in Washington are not yet willing to take
1:32:38
Speaker 7: the l One of those is Jake Auchinclaus, who represents
1:32:42
Speaker 7: a very blue district in Massachusetts. The idea that somebody
1:32:45
Speaker 7: from Massachusetts is going to have influence in Maine without
1:32:48
Speaker 7: moving there is a little bit comical on his own right.
1:32:52
Speaker 7: There was one cycle he didn't have an opponent, but
1:32:54
Speaker 7: apparently he has thoughts on how to flip a red
1:32:57
Speaker 7: Senate seat. So here is Aukincloss getting himself in a
1:33:02
Speaker 7: little bit of trouble with some elements of the Democratic Party.
1:33:06
Speaker 19: Find that tattoo in his commentary about it to be
1:33:08
Speaker 19: personally disqualifying. I hope Maine voters agree with me. I
1:33:13
Speaker 19: think there would be a mistake for the Democratic Party
1:33:15
Speaker 19: to think that Grand Platner's brand of the Democratic Party
1:33:20
Speaker 19: is what wins us durable majorities throughout this country.
1:33:24
Speaker 12: That's just Congressman Jake Auchincloss, thank you so much for
1:33:27
Speaker 12: being with us.
1:33:28
Speaker 7: And so he next the day the next day, yesterday,
1:33:31
Speaker 7: he cleaned up some of these some of those comments
1:33:35
Speaker 7: and said that, you know, if grand Platner does eventually
1:33:39
Speaker 7: win the Democratic primary, which he hopes he won't, then
1:33:42
Speaker 7: he will oppose Susan Collins. But he kind of didn't
1:33:46
Speaker 7: really come out and say that he would support Platner.
1:33:50
Speaker 7: You also then had a couple of other Democratic officials
1:33:53
Speaker 7: kind of agreeing with him.
1:33:54
Speaker 4: Let's roll f two here. This is a Biden administration official.
1:33:59
Speaker 5: Are his past comments disqualifying for Democrats?
1:34:01
Speaker 6: And if they're not, should they be?
1:34:04
Speaker 18: Well?
1:34:04
Speaker 20: I agree with Congressman Jake Auchincloss, and he runs a
1:34:08
Speaker 20: dem majority pack So he spends a lot of his
1:34:10
Speaker 20: time not only representing his district, but also criss crossing
1:34:13
Speaker 20: the country talking to local Democratic coalitions, and so he
1:34:17
Speaker 20: knows what we'll get people elected in the Democratic Party.
1:34:21
Speaker 6: And he's also a Jewish man.
1:34:22
Speaker 20: So I don't think there's anybody in the Democratic Party
1:34:24
Speaker 20: who should feel pressure to support Graham Plattner.
1:34:27
Speaker 6: I certainly don't.
1:34:28
Speaker 20: And just because Senator Elizabeth Warren says that that's her
1:34:31
Speaker 20: kind of man, doesn't mean that has to apply to everybody.
1:34:34
Speaker 20: My kind of senators are the ones that come from Georgia,
1:34:36
Speaker 20: Senator Rosoff and Warnock, and they have different principles.
1:34:40
Speaker 6: And values than Grand Plattner.
1:34:43
Speaker 20: So I think that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will
1:34:45
Speaker 20: just have to carry that themselves.
1:34:47
Speaker 7: So vote blue no matter who, unless it's somebody you
1:34:49
Speaker 7: don't like another one. Melissa de Rosa, who is a
1:34:52
Speaker 7: former chief of staff to Andrew Cuomo, famous for many things,
1:34:56
Speaker 7: or infamous for many things, among them leading a smear
1:34:58
Speaker 7: campaign against Cuomo's sexual harassment victims. She believes that her
1:35:05
Speaker 7: ethical compass does not point towards supporting Platiner.
1:35:09
Speaker 4: Let's roll f three here.
1:35:10
Speaker 21: No, absolutely, I mean this, the main race really demonstrates
1:35:14
Speaker 21: the civil war that's happening within the Democratic Party. And
1:35:17
Speaker 21: there are a lot of Democrats, moderate Democrats like myself
1:35:20
Speaker 21: who will not cry.
1:35:21
Speaker 6: Tears should be lose me.
1:35:23
Speaker 21: I mean that would be a pickup to begin with Emily.
1:35:27
Speaker 7: First of all, as Ben Drevis pointed out on Twitter,
1:35:30
Speaker 7: cry tears.
1:35:30
Speaker 4: What else do you cry?
1:35:32
Speaker 6: She can cry tears, tears of blood.
1:35:35
Speaker 4: She's gonna cry blood.
1:35:36
Speaker 6: She's gonna yes.
1:35:39
Speaker 7: So the Republicans have done, as Dave Wagel pointed out,
1:35:41
Speaker 7: a pretty good job of like jitting up articles about
1:35:45
Speaker 7: like new Reddit posts that they've found and and setting like, oh,
1:35:53
Speaker 7: Democrats are in disarray and this is just the beginning.
1:35:56
Speaker 7: And so Auchincloss, DeRosa and the former bidendministration official, what's
1:36:00
Speaker 7: your range?
1:36:04
Speaker 4: She?
1:36:04
Speaker 7: You know, they kind of feed into this idea. But
1:36:07
Speaker 7: I think, and I'm curious for your take on this,
1:36:10
Speaker 7: I think they are all doing advertisements for platiner a
1:36:14
Speaker 7: Massachusetts a smug Massachusetts guy doesn't support the main candidate,
1:36:20
Speaker 7: a Biden administration official doesn't support the main candidate. And
1:36:24
Speaker 7: Quomo's chief of staff, like on Fox News, on Foxes,
1:36:30
Speaker 7: people say judge me by my enemies. I feel like
1:36:32
Speaker 7: if you're an independent or even a Republican, if you're
1:36:34
Speaker 7: a Democrat, and man, you're already locked in on Platner.
1:36:37
Speaker 7: If you're an independent Republican and you're seeing that this,
1:36:40
Speaker 7: that these party hacks are against Platner, yeah, to me,
1:36:44
Speaker 7: that's like that actually helps Plattner because a real risk
1:36:47
Speaker 7: for him as if he gets lumped as just actually
1:36:50
Speaker 7: just some standard Democrat.
1:36:52
Speaker 18: Yeah.
1:36:52
Speaker 5: And I think it's going to depend on how much
1:36:54
Speaker 5: the Democratic primary dynamic between Platner and Mills translates in
1:37:00
Speaker 5: to the full state dynamic, and my guess is that
1:37:03
Speaker 5: it'll actually be somewhat similar because Susan Collins is such
1:37:07
Speaker 5: a she's such a like avatar of the DC political
1:37:13
Speaker 5: establishment in so many ways. Now she has the good
1:37:15
Speaker 5: flip side of that coin, and that she can convince
1:37:18
Speaker 5: people it's all for their benefit that she has been
1:37:22
Speaker 5: you know, she's genial. She's been in the Senate and
1:37:25
Speaker 5: has been able to bring things back to them, back
1:37:27
Speaker 5: to Maine, which is not something that every establishment hack
1:37:31
Speaker 5: actually can do.
1:37:32
Speaker 6: Like, this is a huge problem for John Cornyn.
1:37:34
Speaker 5: People just felt like, no, I don't even think that
1:37:36
Speaker 5: you've given damn about me, Susan Collins is a little bit,
1:37:39
Speaker 5: I think, as a talented retail politician, a little bit
1:37:42
Speaker 5: more capable of making that case to people.
1:37:44
Speaker 6: But I agree with you completely.
1:37:45
Speaker 5: That it's advertising for Platner, because Platner is not trying
1:37:49
Speaker 5: to act like he's some third way candidate at all.
1:37:51
Speaker 5: He's doing the Ronald Reagan bold colors, not pale.
1:37:54
Speaker 6: Pastel's test, like.
1:37:56
Speaker 5: That's what he's putting into this campaign is that I
1:37:59
Speaker 5: am varnished and I detest the establishment.
1:38:03
Speaker 6: They are lying, they are bad. He's not trying to
1:38:05
Speaker 6: do a third way thing.
1:38:06
Speaker 5: So I actually think a lot of the dynamics we've
1:38:08
Speaker 5: talked about in the elections block. I mean, it reminds
1:38:10
Speaker 5: me of Thomas Massey quote when he's going around Kentucky
1:38:14
Speaker 5: during the Tea Party years thinking everybody's getting very excited
1:38:17
Speaker 5: about limited government and libertarian values, and he says, actually,
1:38:22
Speaker 5: it turns out they were just looking for the craziest
1:38:25
Speaker 5: son of a bitch.
1:38:26
Speaker 6: In the race. Some of them is happening on the
1:38:28
Speaker 6: left right now too.
1:38:29
Speaker 5: They want to blow up the political establishment figuratively. They
1:38:34
Speaker 5: want someone to give a middle finger to the political establishment,
1:38:37
Speaker 5: and I don't. I think it would be a mistake
1:38:38
Speaker 5: to say that's just on the left.
1:38:40
Speaker 6: So I think one of the big.
1:38:42
Speaker 5: Questions for Platner is just whether he can whether his
1:38:44
Speaker 5: economic message is going to resonate more with people who
1:38:49
Speaker 5: might have reservations about where he comes from on some
1:38:52
Speaker 5: cultural issues. But if Collins iman, Collins doesn't ever want
1:38:57
Speaker 5: to run a cultural war campaign, So I don't think
1:38:59
Speaker 5: she's gonna want to touch a lot of those issues.
1:39:01
Speaker 5: To be honest, I don't think she's going to want to.
1:39:03
Speaker 4: Talk about Uh, they could still do the ads, right.
1:39:05
Speaker 5: They can do the ads, but I don't know that
1:39:07
Speaker 5: Collins is going to want to lean super hard into that.
1:39:09
Speaker 5: So and it's also a very favorable environment for the
1:39:13
Speaker 5: economic message of Graham Plattner, who is not Sarah Gideon.
1:39:17
Speaker 5: It's much better, I think, messenger on the economic stuff
1:39:19
Speaker 5: than Sarah Gideon. So it's just you're totally under estimating
1:39:25
Speaker 5: how angry your base is if you're Melissa Rosa or
1:39:30
Speaker 5: Acincloss that, yes, do people necessarily want democratic socialism?
1:39:36
Speaker 6: Do all Democrats want that? No?
1:39:38
Speaker 5: But they want anything but the status quo, anything but
1:39:41
Speaker 5: the status quo.
1:39:42
Speaker 4: And the culture.
1:39:43
Speaker 7: Maybe the culture war was tough for her because of
1:39:45
Speaker 7: her she's outwardly pro choice. She voted for Kavanaugh, and
1:39:52
Speaker 7: she swore to everyone that she trusted Kavanaugh that he
1:39:54
Speaker 7: would not overturn Robie Wade. He promised it was settled law.
1:39:59
Speaker 7: This is the first time she's run since then. So yeah,
1:40:02
Speaker 7: if she tries to do too much culture work, it
1:40:05
Speaker 7: leads into that uncomfortable moment for her.
1:40:08
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good point because again, I think, and
1:40:11
Speaker 5: this is something I've been talking about with Platner, is
1:40:14
Speaker 5: I actually think he has a better message dealing with
1:40:17
Speaker 5: some of the what he hasn't talked much about it,
1:40:19
Speaker 5: but dealing with some of the transports questions, whatever it is.
1:40:23
Speaker 6: I think we asked him about this once.
1:40:24
Speaker 5: Actually I have to go back and look, but he's
1:40:27
Speaker 5: not like apologizing or trying to do a third way
1:40:29
Speaker 5: thing on it, Whereas with Collins, she really does not
1:40:32
Speaker 5: want to talk about what she thinks on some of.
1:40:34
Speaker 6: These culture issues.
1:40:35
Speaker 5: So while most of Maine may disagree with Graham Plattner
1:40:39
Speaker 5: on that issue, they're going to believe that he believes
1:40:41
Speaker 5: what he's saying. And that's different with Collins because people
1:40:45
Speaker 5: are going to say, well, then why did you vote
1:40:46
Speaker 5: for Brett Kavanaugh? Why did you lead to the overturning
1:40:49
Speaker 5: of Roe? And she has a hard time triangulating on
1:40:53
Speaker 5: that because she doesn't want to talk about what she
1:40:56
Speaker 5: really believes. It gets her in trouble, whereas is just
1:41:01
Speaker 5: totally yoloing because that's what people want to see.
1:41:04
Speaker 6: Is just something that's a little bit more authentic right now.
1:41:06
Speaker 7: And so auckin class here's his climb down. He said
1:41:10
Speaker 7: Susan Collins is a rubber stamp because he was all
1:41:13
Speaker 7: tons of people were calling for him to be primaried
1:41:16
Speaker 7: and discovered that he has a primary challenger, Jordan Pulos.
1:41:19
Speaker 7: I think his name is doesn't have much money, but
1:41:21
Speaker 7: now as a decent amount of attention.
1:41:23
Speaker 4: Susan Collins is a rubber stamp. This is auk and Class.
1:41:26
Speaker 7: Susan Collins is a rubber stamp for the worst administration
1:41:28
Speaker 7: in history. Claims that I would endorse her implicit or
1:41:31
Speaker 7: otherwise ignore my track record supporting Democrats to take back
1:41:35
Speaker 7: both chambers. As I said months ago, I find Platner's
1:41:38
Speaker 7: Nazi tattoo and his commentary about it personally disqualifying. If
1:41:42
Speaker 7: it were me, I'd vote for someone else in the
1:41:44
Speaker 7: main Democratic primary regardless of what happens in Maine. Democrats
1:41:48
Speaker 7: need to take back the Senate and I'll keep working
1:41:50
Speaker 7: hard to make it happen. So basically sort of grudgingly
1:41:53
Speaker 7: saying that he will support Platner if he wins when
1:41:57
Speaker 7: he wins the Democratic primary, which is like weird because
1:42:01
Speaker 7: it's also like who cares if you do?
1:42:03
Speaker 4: Like people only care.
1:42:05
Speaker 7: People only care if he's against them, Like if he
1:42:09
Speaker 7: went and campaigned for Platner in Maine, that would hurt him.
1:42:12
Speaker 4: So just go back to neutral.
1:42:14
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, people represent different areas of the country
1:42:18
Speaker 6: and it's fine.
1:42:19
Speaker 7: And so last week, you guys might remember, we talked
1:42:21
Speaker 7: about the Iowa Senate race, where Chuck Schumer has spent
1:42:25
Speaker 7: nine million dollars and the Super pac, a conglomerate called
1:42:30
Speaker 7: Majority Democrats, was arguing that Schumer's candidate was more electable
1:42:34
Speaker 7: based on the fact that he had flipped a red district.
1:42:37
Speaker 7: But that was a chat GPT and Wikipedia error because
1:42:40
Speaker 7: they actually renumbered the districts and he actually had never
1:42:43
Speaker 7: flipped a red district. Auckin Class is the chair of
1:42:47
Speaker 7: majority Democrats, that organization that made that nine million dollar blunder.
1:42:52
Speaker 7: So you know, spare us this political expertise over over here, Jake, all.
1:42:58
Speaker 5: Right, Well, Ryan booked a very candidate here to discuss
1:43:01
Speaker 5: some of these dynamics. Ryan, let's bring in our.
1:43:04
Speaker 4: Guests joining us more to discuss.
1:43:06
Speaker 7: This is Randy Vegas, who is a congressional a Democratic
1:43:09
Speaker 7: congressional candidate out in California, a professor, and an auto
1:43:12
Speaker 7: shop owner in Bakersfield.
1:43:14
Speaker 4: Randy, thank you so much for being here.
1:43:18
Speaker 18: Thanks for having me.
1:43:18
Speaker 6: Auto shop owner in Bakersfield. Sounds like a very fun job.
1:43:22
Speaker 4: But hot, I bet hot, I bet hot.
1:43:24
Speaker 7: In the summer, good Lord, some cool cars like coming
1:43:29
Speaker 7: a bit.
1:43:29
Speaker 4: I'm sure, I'm sure. So we're going to get to
1:43:33
Speaker 4: your race in a moment.
1:43:34
Speaker 7: D TRIPLC has endorsed Jasmine Baines, your opponent, whereas you
1:43:38
Speaker 7: have the endorsement of kind of like Bernie Sanders Progressive Caucus,
1:43:41
Speaker 7: the Hispanic Caucus, like a whole range of kind of
1:43:44
Speaker 7: progressive groups that have consolidated behind you. It's really pitting
1:43:47
Speaker 7: the kind of DC establishment against the kind of you know,
1:43:50
Speaker 7: growing kind of populist progressive movement. But I want to
1:43:54
Speaker 7: want to get your reaction to what we saw unfold
1:43:56
Speaker 7: and Massachusetts in Maine, where you had Massachusetts fersman Jake Auchincloss,
1:44:01
Speaker 7: the head of this super pack conglomerate called Majority Democrats,
1:44:06
Speaker 7: kind of ironically coming out against a majority four Democrats
1:44:10
Speaker 7: by saying that Plattner is disqualified because of the tattoo
1:44:16
Speaker 7: he has. Now, he's done some cleanup since then about that,
1:44:20
Speaker 7: but he's not alone among a couple of other establishment
1:44:24
Speaker 7: like adjacent figures going on Fox or CNN, you know,
1:44:28
Speaker 7: griping about Platner and saying they wouldn't be crying if
1:44:31
Speaker 7: he lost. What do you make of first the recruitment
1:44:36
Speaker 7: of Janet Mills against Platner, then you know, he beats
1:44:41
Speaker 7: her so handily she has to drop out, And now
1:44:43
Speaker 7: this kind of resistance to consolidate behind the presumptive Democratic nominee,
1:44:51
Speaker 7: which is kind of the opposite of what is demanded
1:44:53
Speaker 7: when when the Left is beaten in a primary.
1:44:57
Speaker 18: Yeah, I think you're you're seeing something similar playout in
1:44:59
Speaker 18: my in that it's just another classic example of DC
1:45:03
Speaker 18: elites and insiders who are completely out of touch with
1:45:06
Speaker 18: what's actually going on on the ground and people's sentiment
1:45:09
Speaker 18: on the ground. The fact that you have you know,
1:45:11
Speaker 18: these DC insiders trying to put their entire hand on
1:45:13
Speaker 18: the scale to you know, tip the scales in the
1:45:15
Speaker 18: favor of their candidate is just ridiculous, an outright undemocratic
1:45:19
Speaker 18: of the Democratic Party. And you know, we're seeing that
1:45:24
Speaker 18: people are ready for an economic populist message that says
1:45:27
Speaker 18: that these billionaires and organizations like APAC don't give a
1:45:30
Speaker 18: shit about you. And maybe that makes some members of
1:45:33
Speaker 18: Congress uncomfortable and maybe some members of leadership uncomfortable, but
1:45:37
Speaker 18: it's the reality of what people are feeling here on
1:45:39
Speaker 18: the ground. And you know, people have growth, I think,
1:45:44
Speaker 18: especially as we're starting to see young people and more
1:45:46
Speaker 18: millennials and gen z running for office, you know whose
1:45:50
Speaker 18: records on the internet maybe you know, started from when
1:45:53
Speaker 18: they were toddlers. People, i think are also waking up
1:45:57
Speaker 18: to the fact that we're not going to have these,
1:45:59
Speaker 18: you know, candidates who are perfect by any means, and
1:46:02
Speaker 18: that people are actually capable of growth both as individuals,
1:46:06
Speaker 18: as human beings on people's policy positions, and so we
1:46:10
Speaker 18: actually need to make sure that we have fighters in Congress,
1:46:12
Speaker 18: and Democrats are going to stand up to this administration
1:46:15
Speaker 18: and not fold like we see so many establishment Democrats doing.
1:46:19
Speaker 5: And actually, I'm super curious about your experience just as
1:46:22
Speaker 5: a business owner in Bakersfield, what you hear on the ground,
1:46:26
Speaker 5: and now you're candidate too, so you're hearing a lot
1:46:28
Speaker 5: from different people in the community. What you're hearing on
1:46:31
Speaker 5: the ground, How is it different from what you hear
1:46:34
Speaker 5: from national Democratic leadership about what needs to happen or
1:46:38
Speaker 5: what voters really want, or how to communicate what sort
1:46:42
Speaker 5: of policies to offer. Is there quite a disconnect that
1:46:45
Speaker 5: seems like you were just implying that there was between
1:46:47
Speaker 5: what you're seeing and then what you hear from kind
1:46:49
Speaker 5: of national Democrats in Washington, DC and other places.
1:46:52
Speaker 18: One hundred percent people are struggling right now when it
1:46:54
Speaker 18: comes to housing, when it comes to gas prices, and
1:46:57
Speaker 18: that's why our platform has been resonated with people on
1:47:00
Speaker 18: the ground, and you know, a populous platform actually resonating
1:47:04
Speaker 18: across the political spectrum. You know, I've talked to Republicans, Democrats,
1:47:08
Speaker 18: and independents alike who recognize how the economy and our
1:47:12
Speaker 18: healthcare system is rigged against the working class. You know,
1:47:15
Speaker 18: I'm very blunt when I talk about healthcare. Valley fever, diabetes, cancer,
1:47:20
Speaker 18: doesn't give a shit who you voted for in the
1:47:21
Speaker 18: last election. It does not care what your party idea is.
1:47:24
Speaker 18: But we know that everybody gets sick, which is why
1:47:26
Speaker 18: we need health care for all in my opinion, Medicare
1:47:28
Speaker 18: for all. And same thing when it comes to housing.
1:47:31
Speaker 18: You know your rent, your mortgage, your utilities. Don't ask
1:47:34
Speaker 18: you for your party ID, and neither will is campaign
1:47:36
Speaker 18: because we're truly focused on fighting for every working class person.
1:47:40
Speaker 18: I think a great example of that is housing. For example.
1:47:43
Speaker 18: I want to make sure that when I get to Congress,
1:47:45
Speaker 18: I'm fighting to stop and ban corporations from buying single
1:47:49
Speaker 18: family homes or before our families. Can you know you
1:47:52
Speaker 18: have Wall Street buying up entire neighborhoods, trying to force
1:47:54
Speaker 18: people into becoming renters. And it's ironic. You know who
1:47:58
Speaker 18: agrees with me on this issue, President Trump, who tweeted
1:48:01
Speaker 18: her truth about this a couple of months ago, and
1:48:03
Speaker 18: who disagrees with me on this issue, my corporate back
1:48:06
Speaker 18: Democratic opponent. When there was a bill in the legislature
1:48:08
Speaker 18: in the California legislature to limit corporations to only own
1:48:12
Speaker 18: it up to a thousand single family homes. She voted
1:48:14
Speaker 18: against that bill, and so again I also have the
1:48:18
Speaker 18: endorsement of a local Republican mayor. It's not this fight
1:48:20
Speaker 18: about left versus right. It truly is us versus them,
1:48:23
Speaker 18: you know, working families in the Central Valley and across
1:48:26
Speaker 18: this country who've been left behind by politicians and both
1:48:28
Speaker 18: parties who will cater to the highest bidder.
1:48:31
Speaker 7: And so Jasmine Bins your opponent. Actually, I want people
1:48:37
Speaker 7: to just appreciate this for its own right without describing it.
1:48:42
Speaker 4: Let's roll this. This thought of your opponent.
1:48:46
Speaker 22: Is Israel committing genocide in Gaza? Yes, yes, thank you, Bob.
1:48:58
Speaker 8: All right.
1:48:59
Speaker 7: So jazz band was asked, as you saw as is
1:49:03
Speaker 7: recommitting genocide and Gaza answered yes. Was then subsequently endorsed
1:49:09
Speaker 7: by Democratic Majority for Israel, which is an APAC offshoot,
1:49:12
Speaker 7: and backed off of that and said, you know what,
1:49:15
Speaker 7: I think I heard the question wrong. The irony is
1:49:19
Speaker 7: that in twenty twenty three, she spearheaded resolution in the
1:49:24
Speaker 7: Assembly in California declaring the nineteen eighty four killing of
1:49:30
Speaker 7: thirty thousand Sikhs in India to be a genocide. So
1:49:35
Speaker 7: what has been the effect of the DMFI spending. I
1:49:39
Speaker 7: know Maar Kampanajar, another Democrat nearby who's also endorsed against
1:49:44
Speaker 7: DETBC is endorsed against him, has had I think millions
1:49:47
Speaker 7: at this point spent by DMFI against him. What are
1:49:51
Speaker 7: you seeing in terms of kind of the money coming
1:49:55
Speaker 7: against you, both from the Democratic Party itself but also
1:50:00
Speaker 7: DMFI and pro Israel groups.
1:50:02
Speaker 18: Yeah, it's clear that the d TRIP will see getting
1:50:05
Speaker 18: involved in this race. They are looking for somebody who's
1:50:07
Speaker 18: going to bend the knee to party leadership into corporate
1:50:10
Speaker 18: packs and they know that I'm not going to be that.
1:50:12
Speaker 18: I'm going to be a strong and independent voice for
1:50:14
Speaker 18: the Central Valley. And just like you saw this clip,
1:50:17
Speaker 18: Jasney Bains walk back those comments, claimed she misunderstood the question.
1:50:21
Speaker 18: I don't know how you misunderstand at genocide, especially as
1:50:24
Speaker 18: a doctor, when we have doctors on the ground right
1:50:27
Speaker 18: now trying to save lives of innocent children and women
1:50:31
Speaker 18: in Palestline and across the world. But they know clearly
1:50:35
Speaker 18: where I stand on this issue, right I signed on
1:50:37
Speaker 18: to a ceasefire letter as a local public official during
1:50:40
Speaker 18: the Biden administration, sadly what that was considered controversial at
1:50:44
Speaker 18: the time, But I don't think it should be controversial
1:50:46
Speaker 18: to say that our hard earned tax period dollars shouldn't
1:50:49
Speaker 18: be spent bombing innocent schools and communities across the world
1:50:53
Speaker 18: and should be spent building schools and communities right here
1:50:56
Speaker 18: at home. And that is why the Israel lobby is
1:50:59
Speaker 18: terrified of someone like me actually getting elected into Congress,
1:51:03
Speaker 18: and why they're spending roughly a million dollars not over
1:51:06
Speaker 18: that at this point, through DMFI and through three point four,
1:51:09
Speaker 18: which is historically funneled money for a pac But let
1:51:12
Speaker 18: me tell you, even Jasmine Baines knows that she's wrong
1:51:15
Speaker 18: on this issue. She doesn't even list dmfi's endorsement on
1:51:18
Speaker 18: her website, right. And it's just another classic example of
1:51:21
Speaker 18: politicians where will do or say anything depending on who's
1:51:25
Speaker 18: in the room and who are willing to sell their
1:51:27
Speaker 18: policy positions out to the highest bidder.
1:51:29
Speaker 7: Now, the counter argument from the Democrats in Washington, they
1:51:33
Speaker 7: say she's more electable, and the one thing they point
1:51:38
Speaker 7: to is we can put up F six here, so
1:51:41
Speaker 7: the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the kind of House
1:51:44
Speaker 7: Republican super pac has actually spent not a lot, but
1:51:50
Speaker 7: in the tens of thousands of dollars kind of boosting
1:51:54
Speaker 7: your campaign. And so it seems, at least from House Republicans' perspective,
1:52:01
Speaker 7: that they agree with the D Trouble C that they
1:52:04
Speaker 7: would rather run against you than against jazz Meat Banes.
1:52:08
Speaker 4: So why why are they wrong?
1:52:10
Speaker 18: Yeah, I don't think anybody should be trying to meddle
1:52:13
Speaker 18: in this election, whether it's the Democratic Establishment, whether it's
1:52:16
Speaker 18: the Republican Party or any of these super PACs that
1:52:18
Speaker 18: are spinning against me. People should be allowed to elect
1:52:21
Speaker 18: the candidate of their choice. And you know, you have
1:52:24
Speaker 18: the Republican Party setting mailers, you know, saying I'm too
1:52:27
Speaker 18: liberal and sort of things like that, which is ridiculous.
1:52:31
Speaker 18: You know, they're trying to define me before the general
1:52:33
Speaker 18: election because they actually know I'm the stronger candidate to
1:52:36
Speaker 18: take on jazz Meat Banes. And clearly the D tripleC
1:52:39
Speaker 18: recognizes this as well, because if they thought that she
1:52:42
Speaker 18: could win this race out right on her own, they
1:52:44
Speaker 18: wouldn't be trying to flood the airwaves at the last minute,
1:52:47
Speaker 18: or endorsing her just as ballots or dropping you know,
1:52:50
Speaker 18: to try and save her because they know that our
1:52:52
Speaker 18: campaign is resonating on the ground. I mean, in the
1:52:55
Speaker 18: latest poll we're actually leading by four points, which is
1:52:58
Speaker 18: why we're seeing this outflux of outside money point into
1:53:01
Speaker 18: this district.
1:53:01
Speaker 6: Well, it's kind of interesting.
1:53:02
Speaker 5: You mentioned you have the endorsement of a local Republican mayor,
1:53:05
Speaker 5: and then at the same time you have CLF pouring
1:53:07
Speaker 5: money into the race, as Ryan said, a modest sum
1:53:10
Speaker 5: of money into the race to try to back you.
1:53:12
Speaker 5: So there's something interesting going on where on the one hand,
1:53:16
Speaker 5: national Republicans probably a little bit like national Democrats. They
1:53:22
Speaker 5: don't think they might not they might not recognize what's
1:53:25
Speaker 5: resonating on a sort of grassroots level.
1:53:29
Speaker 6: A final question for.
1:53:29
Speaker 5: Me is just how you're dealing with kind of maybe
1:53:32
Speaker 5: the cultural war gaps between Republican voters in the central
1:53:35
Speaker 5: value or even like independent voters in the central value
1:53:38
Speaker 5: people who go Democrat, they go Republican. You're trying to
1:53:40
Speaker 5: build your case in a primary right now, but I
1:53:43
Speaker 5: imagine that involves talking to some independence and people around
1:53:46
Speaker 5: the community. I bet immigration is something that you hear
1:53:50
Speaker 5: about a lot. How do you kind of there's obviously
1:53:53
Speaker 5: a gap right now. So how do you handle those
1:53:56
Speaker 5: types of conversations.
1:53:57
Speaker 18: Yeah, we're knocking on doors for Demos, Independents, and Republicans alike.
1:54:02
Speaker 18: As you know, California has this jungle primary where the
1:54:04
Speaker 18: top two move on, So we're talking every voter and
1:54:07
Speaker 18: our message is universal to say, whether you are a Republican,
1:54:10
Speaker 18: a Democrat, or independent, you deserve housing that you can afford,
1:54:13
Speaker 18: You deserve healthcare, you deserve childcare in this country. And
1:54:17
Speaker 18: these are all not questions of whether we have the
1:54:20
Speaker 18: financial means to do these things. And New Mexico has
1:54:22
Speaker 18: universal childcare, New York is moving in this direction. Vermont
1:54:25
Speaker 18: was able to figure this out. It's not a question
1:54:27
Speaker 18: of whether we have the financial means to do these things.
1:54:30
Speaker 18: It's a question of whether we have the political courage
1:54:32
Speaker 18: and the moral clarity to actually fight for these things.
1:54:35
Speaker 18: But you know, these solutions aren't going to come from
1:54:37
Speaker 18: politicians who are funded by the same corporations the root
1:54:40
Speaker 18: of all these problems, like my opponents and people here
1:54:44
Speaker 18: in the Central Valley. You know how many people have
1:54:45
Speaker 18: asked me about trans athletes or any of these cultural
1:54:48
Speaker 18: war issues. Zero at the doors, I am not lying
1:54:51
Speaker 18: to you. Zero but you don't know how many people
1:54:54
Speaker 18: I've talked to at the doors who tell me that
1:54:56
Speaker 18: they will drive seven to eight hours to Tijuana to
1:54:59
Speaker 18: go get cheaper dental work done, to get cheaper prescription
1:55:01
Speaker 18: drugs or even now cheaper healthcare. And that should be
1:55:04
Speaker 18: happening in the richest country in the history.
1:55:06
Speaker 8: Of the world.
1:55:06
Speaker 18: Which is why we're going to win not just this primary,
1:55:09
Speaker 18: but the general election, because people are fed up with
1:55:11
Speaker 18: the status quo within both major political parties who were
1:55:15
Speaker 18: in bed with corporate interest and they want somebody who's
1:55:17
Speaker 18: going to fight for them.
1:55:19
Speaker 7: Yes, And to be clear for the audience, I don't
1:55:21
Speaker 7: think we specified this at the top. David Volato, the
1:55:24
Speaker 7: Republican incumbent currently occupies the seat, so this would be
1:55:28
Speaker 7: this would be a flip. This is different than you know,
1:55:30
Speaker 7: the candidates we talked to last week, who are you
1:55:33
Speaker 7: fighting it out and whoever wins the Democratic primary is
1:55:35
Speaker 7: going to win in an easy blue seat. This is
1:55:38
Speaker 7: this is going to be a tough race to flip
1:55:41
Speaker 7: it and it will be interesting to see if somebody,
1:55:43
Speaker 7: you know, backed by the Working Families Party, Bernie Sanders, AOC,
1:55:47
Speaker 7: the Progressive Caucus, you know, can can pull that off.
1:55:52
Speaker 7: So Randy, thanks so much for being here. And I
1:55:56
Speaker 7: guess the election is on Tuesday, right, yep, June second.
1:56:00
Speaker 7: I guess you're looking forward to that. But then it's
1:56:02
Speaker 7: not over if you're in the top two, and you
1:56:03
Speaker 7: got an another few months of this campaigning.
1:56:06
Speaker 4: But thanks so much for being here.
1:56:08
Speaker 18: Of course, thanks for having me, and for folks who
1:56:10
Speaker 18: are interested in helping us out, head to Randy Dog Vote.
1:56:13
Speaker 18: Donate your time, your money, whatever you can to help
1:56:16
Speaker 18: us win this fight. So thanks so much for having me.
1:56:18
Speaker 18: You got it, Talk you later.