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NFL Playoff Bracket Special · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
0:08
Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
0:10
Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
0:13
Speaker 1: Sunday one and five. I don't even know what to
0:16
Speaker 1: tell you above that I just don't want to do
0:18
Speaker 1: this anymore.
0:19
Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this.
0:22
Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
0:26
Speaker 1: good day at all.
0:27
Speaker 2: Own four, that's have not had a good season.
0:31
Speaker 1: Man, with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
0:35
Speaker 1: slump continues, I've reached a new peak.
0:38
Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my bruins hat Man. I
0:42
Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
0:46
Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
0:48
Speaker 2: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
0:51
Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. But I don't even know
0:53
Speaker 2: what data is anymore.
0:54
Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
0:58
Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
1:02
Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
1:06
Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me.
1:07
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:11
Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
1:13
Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 1: The slump series slump discontinuous, The slump continues.
1:20
Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
1:25
Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all.
1:31
Speaker 2: Uh, playoffs. Don't talk about playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?
1:37
Speaker 2: I just hope we can win a game, another game.
1:41
Speaker 1: What's up, Rare, buddy, it's towed back with you with
1:43
Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports. This is gonna be the NFL playoff bracket special.
1:49
Speaker 1: I'm gonna fill out my NFL bracket the way that
1:52
Speaker 1: I fill out these other brackets.
1:53
Speaker 2: Using game theory.
1:55
Speaker 1: And I don't know if I'm gonna hold myself to
1:56
Speaker 1: every single one of these, like once I see what
1:58
Speaker 1: the final market reads are gonna like on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, whatever.
2:02
Speaker 2: But we'll see.
2:04
Speaker 1: I don't think I changed anything in my college one
2:07
Speaker 1: but college, of course, a bunch of that stuff got
2:10
Speaker 1: disrupted in college anyway, and we know how that goes.
2:14
Speaker 1: My champion is alive though, in college with Indiana, and
2:18
Speaker 1: I think whoever wins Indiana versus Oregon is gonna be
2:20
Speaker 1: the champion. But we will see. I'm gonna rant about
2:26
Speaker 1: tonight tomorrow. I'm really, really fucking pissed about tonight. If
2:30
Speaker 1: you saw how some of these games went, we should
2:32
Speaker 1: have had at least like three wins that didn't happen,
2:36
Speaker 1: just on massive, massive swings late in games.
2:40
Speaker 2: I'm pissed as fuck.
2:42
Speaker 1: I don't think I handicapped these games wrong for the
2:44
Speaker 1: most part, dirty sock. What's up man, Thanks for hanging out.
2:48
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get right into this though. This is gonna be,
2:50
Speaker 1: of course, the playoff bracket here. I'm gonna fill this
2:53
Speaker 1: out on ESPN. This is gonna be my bracket on ESPN.
2:58
Speaker 1: This is the structure here. This is probably not gonna
3:01
Speaker 1: take very long. And we do know though, than in
3:04
Speaker 1: the NFL, the NFL reseeds, so the one seed in
3:07
Speaker 1: each conference gets a buy and whoever is the lowest
3:11
Speaker 1: seed to advance out of the wildcard round faces the
3:14
Speaker 1: number one seed, so that's how it works. And then
3:17
Speaker 1: the other two teams play against each other, so that's
3:19
Speaker 1: how the structure happens. And then of course if it
3:20
Speaker 1: comes a normal bracket at that point, and yeah, higher
3:25
Speaker 1: seed or the better seed is the host of every
3:28
Speaker 1: game up until the Super Bowl, of course, which is
3:30
Speaker 1: in San Francisco Stadium.
3:33
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, but yeah, I don't.
3:36
Speaker 1: I don't think the forty nine ers are gonna be
3:37
Speaker 1: getting there, I'm sorry to say, but we can.
3:41
Speaker 2: We can get into it right now. Matce. You know
3:43
Speaker 2: how I do this.
3:44
Speaker 1: I build brackets backwards. I'm built backwards. I build these
3:48
Speaker 1: things backwards. So I start with the champion because it's
3:52
Speaker 1: all about game theory, like if you want to try
3:55
Speaker 1: to beat like a large pool or whatever. I know
3:58
Speaker 1: it makes more sense in March madness because they there
4:00
Speaker 1: are so many combinations that can happen in.
4:03
Speaker 2: These small brackets. Not so much, but I still use
4:06
Speaker 2: the same technique, So.
4:08
Speaker 1: I look at who's picking whom as far as the
4:12
Speaker 1: champion is concerned.
4:13
Speaker 2: First. ESPN doesn't make this as easy.
4:15
Speaker 1: Anymore to figure out, like who you want to have
4:17
Speaker 1: at the other points in the bracket, because they don't
4:20
Speaker 1: tell you who's picking whom to get to a certain
4:22
Speaker 1: point in the bracket anymore, Like they're only telling you
4:26
Speaker 1: that percentage, that raw percentage for the champion. And then
4:29
Speaker 1: they have the stupid people's bracket here, which they're just
4:33
Speaker 1: telling you like this is these are the teams that
4:35
Speaker 1: people are advancing that far, and then out of that
4:39
Speaker 1: specific matchup, that's the percentage. So the Seahawks are the
4:43
Speaker 1: most picked team. The most picked super Bowl matchup is
4:47
Speaker 1: Seahawks over Broncos. But the fact that they're saying sixty
4:50
Speaker 1: nine percent of pickers are picking the Seahawks over the Broncos,
4:55
Speaker 1: that's just in that specific champion matchup. Because as you
4:59
Speaker 1: can see here, of course, twenty three point two percent
5:02
Speaker 1: is the actual percentage of people picking the Seahawks to
5:04
Speaker 1: win the whole thing.
5:06
Speaker 2: But that is where I start.
5:07
Speaker 1: I say, Okay, the Seahawks are being picked a lot
5:10
Speaker 1: twenty three point two percent. Usually I'm not gonna be
5:13
Speaker 1: picking the team that's being picked the most, and probably
5:17
Speaker 1: it makes sense to not pick the Seahawks, even though yes,
5:20
Speaker 1: they do have the buy into the second round. Sometimes
5:23
Speaker 1: the team can be a little bit rusty coming off
5:25
Speaker 1: of that though, but they have an inexperienced quarterback Man
5:28
Speaker 1: Darnald I'm still not a believer there. I know the
5:31
Speaker 1: Seahawks have a really good defense, but I think the
5:34
Speaker 1: Seahawks are also gonna have a pretty challenging road here.
5:39
Speaker 1: So well, we'll see what the odds are on the
5:41
Speaker 1: Seahawks here, but it does look like if the Packers win,
5:44
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are gonna draw the Packers right away, and
5:46
Speaker 1: that is not gonna be that easy of a game.
5:48
Speaker 1: The Packers are pretty legit. The Seahawks also have a
5:52
Speaker 1: decent chance of drawing the Rams. That's also not gonna
5:55
Speaker 1: be easy at all. So they're definitely some uh like.
6:00
Speaker 1: The NFC is a gauntlet man, so and of course
6:03
Speaker 1: I could see the Eagles being able to beat them
6:05
Speaker 1: as well, so you kind of know where I'm headed
6:06
Speaker 1: with this. The Seahawks do have the best odds to
6:09
Speaker 1: win according to DraftKings here at plus three thirty. I'm
6:12
Speaker 1: gonna see what the implied odds are on that, and
6:15
Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna use.
6:16
Speaker 2: DraftKings odds for this.
6:17
Speaker 1: The implyed probability twenty three point twenty six percent. So
6:21
Speaker 1: looking at what they're being picked, the Seahawks actually are
6:24
Speaker 1: being picked right around the correct amount, actually, which I'm surprised.
6:27
Speaker 2: I thought they're being overpicked.
6:29
Speaker 1: They're actually slightly underpicked, I guess based on the implyed probability.
6:33
Speaker 1: But there's really not a whole lot of leverage there,
6:35
Speaker 1: so I would probably not be picking the Seahawks. Rams
6:39
Speaker 1: are the next most popular pick at seventeen point six percent.
6:43
Speaker 1: They do have the second best odds, and with the Rams,
6:46
Speaker 1: you're looking at a balanced team.
6:47
Speaker 2: With the Rams, good offense, good defense.
6:51
Speaker 1: I think the power ratings wise, they still might actually
6:53
Speaker 1: be the best team.
6:54
Speaker 2: In the NFL.
6:55
Speaker 1: They have, of course, a quarterback that's won a Super
6:57
Speaker 1: Bowl before, They got a lot of experience. They got
6:59
Speaker 1: a coach that's won a Super Bowl and has been
7:02
Speaker 1: to multiple Super Bowls.
7:04
Speaker 2: So the Rams.
7:06
Speaker 1: I would certainly not right off the Rams, let's put
7:08
Speaker 1: it that way. And of course the Rams do have
7:10
Speaker 1: a pretty easy matchup in the first round as well.
7:13
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna lose to the Panthers. To
7:15
Speaker 1: put it mildly, they're at four plus.
7:18
Speaker 2: Four twenty five to win here.
7:19
Speaker 1: That's an imply probability of nineteen point zero five percent,
7:24
Speaker 1: So there actually is slight positive leverage there on the Rams,
7:27
Speaker 1: of whatever that is less than two percent. So you
7:32
Speaker 1: could pick the Rams to win the super Bowl here,
7:34
Speaker 1: and I would not knock you for that.
7:37
Speaker 2: But let's see what else we have here.
7:38
Speaker 1: We have the Bills being picked at thirteen point one
7:41
Speaker 1: percent being picked.
7:42
Speaker 2: The most to win, which is interesting. They're the most
7:45
Speaker 2: popular champion pick out of the AFC, but the Broncos
7:50
Speaker 2: are the most popular.
7:51
Speaker 1: Pick to get to the championship game out of the AFC,
7:54
Speaker 1: which is really weird. I've never seen anything like that,
7:57
Speaker 1: Like if sixty six percent of pickers are picking the
8:00
Speaker 1: Broncos to beat the Bills, and how are the Bills
8:03
Speaker 1: being picked more to win the I guess it's possible, Like,
8:06
Speaker 1: I guess people are either knocking the Bills out like
8:10
Speaker 1: right away pretty much, well, I guess against the Broncos,
8:13
Speaker 1: or they're carrying them all the way through the championship,
8:16
Speaker 1: which is just bizarre. So Bills thirteen point one percent
8:21
Speaker 1: is what they're being picked. They're gonna be negative leverage.
8:23
Speaker 1: I can guarantee it. They're ten to one to win
8:25
Speaker 1: this whole thing plus one thousand, So yeah, less than
8:28
Speaker 1: ten percent imply probability. So I believe this site actually
8:33
Speaker 1: is kind of factoring in the vague because plus one
8:36
Speaker 1: thousand you think would be just ten percent, but they're
8:38
Speaker 1: saying it's nine point h nine percent. So the Bills,
8:41
Speaker 1: you do not want to pick them, so I would say, yeah,
8:44
Speaker 1: avoid the Bills. It's like negative three points something percent leverage.
8:48
Speaker 1: Next popular is the Patriots at.
8:50
Speaker 2: Ten point seven percent.
8:52
Speaker 1: Don't know if I would want to roll with the
8:54
Speaker 1: Patriots with a quarterback that's never played in the playoffs before.
8:57
Speaker 2: I probably avoid that.
8:58
Speaker 1: They're at plus nine high under it, so they actually
9:00
Speaker 1: have better odds to win than the Bills. Do imply
9:03
Speaker 1: probability of ten percent in that case, but they're being
9:07
Speaker 1: overpicked slightly at ten point seven percent. Then we have
9:10
Speaker 1: the Broncos at ten point five percent. Broncos are plus
9:14
Speaker 1: six fifty, so they're actually the third best odds, partially
9:18
Speaker 1: because they skip the first round skip it. They have
9:20
Speaker 1: a buy imply probability thirteen point three three percent, so
9:26
Speaker 1: you're looking at almost three percent leverage gain on that one.
9:31
Speaker 1: So yeah, and then Eagles is a huge drop off
9:35
Speaker 1: to the Eagles five point four percent, even though they're
9:37
Speaker 1: they're returning champs. Where the Eagles at here, they're at
9:40
Speaker 1: plus nine fifty, so they're gonna be positive leverage. No,
9:43
Speaker 1: I don't want to add them to my betting slip, No, sir, Plus,
9:47
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm logged in anyway plus nine p
9:50
Speaker 1: fifty let me see nine point five two percent implied.
9:54
Speaker 1: So the Eagles are getting some pretty strong leverage there
9:58
Speaker 1: plus four percent. I think it's got to be one
10:00
Speaker 1: of those teams, and then I don't think we have
10:02
Speaker 1: to worry about the rest of these teams. To be honest,
10:04
Speaker 1: I think out of these picks, so you're getting just
10:06
Speaker 1: such a low percentage that you're probably not going to
10:09
Speaker 1: be looking at the rest of these teams. All the
10:12
Speaker 1: other teams are below ten to one to win, So
10:15
Speaker 1: I think we're dealing with just Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, Bills,
10:21
Speaker 1: and I already wrote off the Bills for being two
10:23
Speaker 1: negative leverage. I think Seahawks and Patriots are kind of
10:25
Speaker 1: about even leverage, so I'd probably write them off too.
10:29
Speaker 1: So I think it's got to be Rams, Broncos or
10:31
Speaker 1: Eagles here. Then the question is gonna be which one Rams?
10:36
Speaker 1: What did I say the Rams seventeen point six percent
10:39
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five? What's their leverage again, it's
10:42
Speaker 1: about it's less than two percent, So hm, you know,
10:49
Speaker 1: I think this is what I said, man, when I
10:51
Speaker 1: looked at what.
10:52
Speaker 2: This is what was gonna happen.
10:53
Speaker 1: When I did this before, I was like, I don't
10:56
Speaker 1: know if I like that, but I think, my god,
11:01
Speaker 1: I think it's.
11:02
Speaker 2: Gonna be the Broncos man shout out to Cole. I guess.
11:07
Speaker 1: I mean, at least bo Nix has played one playoff
11:11
Speaker 1: game before, he's own one in the playoff games.
11:14
Speaker 2: Do I trust him? No? But they do have a
11:18
Speaker 2: Super Bowl winning.
11:19
Speaker 1: Coach and they have a really good defense, so there
11:21
Speaker 1: is that at least. And they skip the first round,
11:23
Speaker 1: skip it, and I think they're gonna get a pretty
11:25
Speaker 1: decent draw here, although they might wind up drawing the
11:28
Speaker 1: Chargers if the Chargers beat the Patriots, which.
11:33
Speaker 2: Would be somewhat difficult.
11:34
Speaker 1: The Broncos, I would guess, would probably be about a
11:36
Speaker 1: three point favorite in that game. But there's also a
11:39
Speaker 1: decent chance they draw the Steelers, and the Broncos would
11:42
Speaker 1: be a pretty big favorite there if the Steelers are
11:44
Speaker 1: to win that game, and I think those are probably
11:47
Speaker 1: the two most common opponents they would draw, or I
11:49
Speaker 1: guess they could draw the Texans as well, So like,
11:53
Speaker 1: basically they're gonna draw the winner of Steelers, Texans or
11:56
Speaker 1: the Chargers pretty much, or who the Broncos are gonna draw,
12:00
Speaker 1: So the Broncos do have a decent path there. I
12:03
Speaker 1: would say, you know, yeah, I'm with the number two
12:08
Speaker 1: seed being pretty weak.
12:09
Speaker 2: The Jags, I don't know.
12:12
Speaker 1: The Bills are looming there, but the Bills don't have
12:14
Speaker 1: a good defense and it all goes through Mile High
12:17
Speaker 1: which is difficult to play.
12:18
Speaker 2: And you know, I don't hate this, to be honest.
12:21
Speaker 1: So we're looking at with the Broncos thirteen point three
12:24
Speaker 1: three percent versus the Eagles being like nine percent whatever.
12:27
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit less positive leverage, but much
12:30
Speaker 1: higher percentage chance to win for the Broncos.
12:34
Speaker 2: Let's do it. We'll go with the Broncos to win
12:37
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl.
12:39
Speaker 1: Oh no, I have to fill out this tie breaker
12:41
Speaker 1: on how many total points. I don't know, Charles, what's
12:44
Speaker 1: going on? Six sixty six? Yeah, that's not good.
12:48
Speaker 2: Swoll king Cole.
12:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's working out, man. You bet on the
12:52
Speaker 1: Broncos to win the Super Bowl?
12:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean.
12:56
Speaker 1: I would hold on to it for now and then
12:58
Speaker 1: maybe hedge later on a little bit. But you're not
13:02
Speaker 1: a fan of them, dude. I hate the Patriots fan
13:05
Speaker 1: base around here. Although I was a fan of them
13:07
Speaker 1: up until they got Belichick and Brady. The fan base
13:10
Speaker 1: became completely insufferable. But you know, I don't dislike this
13:16
Speaker 1: current patriot iteration, except I don't like Josh McDaniels. So
13:20
Speaker 1: all right, now, who are we gonna have coming out
13:22
Speaker 1: of the NFC here? So I'm gonna look at the
13:25
Speaker 1: odds to win the NFC here conference winner by the way,
13:30
Speaker 1: really interesting. The Broncos are really plus two thirty, so
13:32
Speaker 1: they're actually they have worse odds to win the AFC
13:36
Speaker 1: than the Seahawks have to win the NFC, and actually
13:38
Speaker 1: worse odds than both the Seahawks and the Rams.
13:41
Speaker 2: This is bizarre, dude. So oh man, these odds seem yeah,
13:47
Speaker 2: just strange to me. This is the odds to win
13:48
Speaker 2: the conference? I don't know.
13:49
Speaker 1: But for the NFC, we have Seahawks at plus one
13:52
Speaker 1: fifty five, Rams plus two to twenty five, Eagles plus
13:56
Speaker 1: four seventy five, and then there's a big drop of it's.
13:58
Speaker 2: Got to be one of those three.
14:00
Speaker 1: And I'm probably gonna buck the Seahawks because everybody's picking
14:04
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, so I think I want to avoid picking them.
14:08
Speaker 2: So it's probably Rams or Eagles here.
14:11
Speaker 1: Now, I think it's more likely that the Seahawks wind
14:15
Speaker 1: up facing the Rams earlier. In like, I think there
14:19
Speaker 1: are more chances for the Eagles to get through this
14:21
Speaker 1: because I think the Eagles will beat the forty nine
14:23
Speaker 1: Ers and then who would they draw in the next game?
14:28
Speaker 2: Though, I'm trying to think, like what would the shuffle
14:31
Speaker 2: be here?
14:33
Speaker 1: So it could be if the Packers win, it would
14:37
Speaker 1: be Seahawks Packers, and then the Eagles would get the Rams. Yeah,
14:40
Speaker 1: that's not easy either, but they'd get the Rams in
14:43
Speaker 1: Philadelphia outdoors, so that's not horrible interesting And the Seahawks,
14:49
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, the Seahawks are not gonna have
14:50
Speaker 1: it easy versus the Rams or the Packers. Like I said,
14:54
Speaker 1: you know what are we loo gonna have for the
14:57
Speaker 1: people's bracket here? We got the Seahawks. Everybody has Seahawks
15:01
Speaker 1: Rams here. A lot of like people are really not
15:05
Speaker 1: put up going with the Eagles, and it was kind
15:08
Speaker 1: of like last year the Eagles are just being overlooked. Man,
15:11
Speaker 1: I mean the Eagles, Yeah, their offense has really become
15:13
Speaker 1: stagnant times. But the Eagles are the most experienced team
15:17
Speaker 1: here pretty much except some of their defense from last
15:19
Speaker 1: year isn't here anymore.
15:22
Speaker 2: I mean, they've won a Super Bowl before.
15:26
Speaker 1: You know, I'm gonna do it, even though I think
15:28
Speaker 1: if it comes to this matchup Broncos Eagles, I think, yeah,
15:34
Speaker 1: I think that if it comes to that, the Eagles
15:36
Speaker 1: would be.
15:39
Speaker 2: They might win the game. I mean, they'd be the
15:41
Speaker 2: more experienced team there. But I don't know, we'll see.
15:44
Speaker 1: It would be a decent defensive matchup though, So I
15:48
Speaker 1: guess I'm gonna do that.
15:49
Speaker 2: Go with the Eagles here.
15:50
Speaker 1: Now, I don't know if this bracket thing here is
15:53
Speaker 1: gonna start like shuffling, like if I pick.
15:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, see, like it's not flipping.
16:00
Speaker 1: This game doesn't like flip the teams around, so you
16:02
Speaker 1: don't know what the matchup would actually be, right, Like,
16:05
Speaker 1: oh no, it does.
16:06
Speaker 2: It does.
16:06
Speaker 1: So if I picked the forty nine ers, it would
16:08
Speaker 1: go there. But then if I picked the Packers, y
16:09
Speaker 1: that does bump them. Okay, interesting, all right, anyway, Eagles
16:13
Speaker 1: is who I wanted to pick there.
16:14
Speaker 2: Okay, now I don't have to fix all this shit.
16:18
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's settled unless uh yeah, I mean plus
16:22
Speaker 1: four to seventy five? What are the implied odds on
16:24
Speaker 1: that seventeen point three nine percent versus yeah, thirty.
16:30
Speaker 2: Six or whatever is what the Seahawks would be.
16:34
Speaker 1: But the Seahawks are being picked quite a bit really,
16:36
Speaker 1: It's like they're probably being picked over fifty percent to
16:40
Speaker 1: get there, to be honest. And then the Rams at
16:42
Speaker 1: two twenty five are thirty point seven to seven percent,
16:46
Speaker 1: which is still pretty high. So I mean you could go.
16:48
Speaker 2: With the Rams to get to the super Bowl as well.
16:51
Speaker 1: I don't hate that pick either, So I think it's
16:55
Speaker 1: either Rams or Eagles to get to the to the
16:58
Speaker 1: super Bowl there. But again, I I wish they showed you,
17:01
Speaker 1: like what percentage of pickers are picking each team to
17:04
Speaker 1: get here, you know what I mean, because it seems like, yeah,
17:09
Speaker 1: it's really really hard to.
17:10
Speaker 2: Figure that out.
17:11
Speaker 1: So I don't know like what percentage of pickers because
17:14
Speaker 1: I want to find the leverage spot or whatever. Now
17:17
Speaker 1: we just have the first round games to figure out
17:19
Speaker 1: and that's about it. We have Steelers Texans here. I'm
17:24
Speaker 1: gonna talk about all these first round games more on
17:26
Speaker 1: the days of the games.
17:27
Speaker 2: Of course, but.
17:30
Speaker 1: The Steelers Texas one, I'm gonna go out on a limar.
17:32
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick the Steelers in this one. Man, I
17:34
Speaker 1: don't trust CJ. Stroud on the road. He's owned two
17:37
Speaker 1: on the road in the postseason.
17:41
Speaker 2: I know the Texas defense is good, but I see this.
17:43
Speaker 1: Being a low scoring game. Totals in the high thirties.
17:46
Speaker 1: It's gonna be ugly.
17:48
Speaker 2: It's outdoors.
17:49
Speaker 1: It's gonna be in the thirties out It's not gonna
17:51
Speaker 1: be quite freezing.
17:52
Speaker 2: But I still don't know if I trust Stroud and
17:54
Speaker 2: cold weather like this.
17:55
Speaker 1: I know he did win one game in early December
17:58
Speaker 1: at the Chief, but I don't know.
18:01
Speaker 2: Man.
18:01
Speaker 1: You're talking about going up against Aaron Rodgers as well,
18:04
Speaker 1: here some experience. The Steelers are getting totally knocked because
18:08
Speaker 1: Tom Moon loses in the first round all the time.
18:10
Speaker 1: But one thing that's really crazy about this is this
18:15
Speaker 1: is a Monday night game.
18:16
Speaker 2: The Steelers have not lost a Monday.
18:19
Speaker 1: Night game since let me see, let me see what
18:24
Speaker 1: what the number is on this Steelers Monday Night football record.
18:29
Speaker 2: Hang on the Steelers. The last time they lost a.
18:34
Speaker 1: Home Monday night football game the Steelers was in nineteen
18:39
Speaker 1: ninety one.
18:40
Speaker 2: I am not making that up.
18:42
Speaker 1: I believe the Steelers have won twenty five home Monday
18:46
Speaker 1: night football games in a row, and people are saying no,
18:50
Speaker 1: because they lost one in like twenty twenty against the
18:52
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins. I'm still calling them the Redskins, but that's
18:56
Speaker 1: actually not true because that was during.
18:58
Speaker 2: All that COVID bullshit.
18:59
Speaker 1: And yeah, the Steelers lost that game, but that was
19:01
Speaker 1: a game that was played at five PM on a
19:05
Speaker 1: Monday night. But it was a Fox game. It was
19:07
Speaker 1: not the Monday night football game. It got moved to
19:11
Speaker 1: like early evening Monday, so it's technically not a Monday
19:14
Speaker 1: night game. And even if you think that it was,
19:16
Speaker 1: that means the Steelers are twenty five and one in
19:18
Speaker 1: the last twenty six games that they host on Monday Night.
19:22
Speaker 2: That is a crazy trend to try to buck man.
19:24
Speaker 1: So I'm actually gonna pick the Steelers to beat the Texans,
19:27
Speaker 1: even though the Texans have the better defense and the
19:31
Speaker 1: Texas have looked good. But of course the public is
19:33
Speaker 1: all over the Texans, so game theory wise, it makes
19:36
Speaker 1: sense to do it. The Texans are seventy five percent here,
19:39
Speaker 1: which if you think the Texans should be seventy five
19:42
Speaker 1: percent to win this game, the Texans should probably be like.
19:47
Speaker 2: Minus like a minus three hundred.
19:49
Speaker 1: Favorite, and they're absolutely not. They're minus one fifty five.
19:54
Speaker 1: So game theory does actually say to grab the Steelers
19:58
Speaker 1: in that game with the chances like it's close to
20:01
Speaker 1: a toss up games, That's what I'm gonna do in
20:03
Speaker 1: that one for now.
20:05
Speaker 2: Might be a play for me. At Steelers plus three,
20:07
Speaker 2: I don't know.
20:09
Speaker 1: Broncos Rams are ten to one, Broncos Eagles eighteen to one. Yeah,
20:14
Speaker 1: I mean you could play both and then if if
20:16
Speaker 1: either one happens, then you'll win something. Jags Bills this game,
20:24
Speaker 1: you know, this is a difficult one.
20:27
Speaker 2: Man. This is at Jacksonville. Now.
20:30
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is only played in Jacksonville once ever, and
20:33
Speaker 1: it was like four years ago and the Bills lost
20:36
Speaker 1: that game. So I don't know how much we should
20:39
Speaker 1: take away from that. It was one game a long
20:41
Speaker 1: time ago. But that's not great that the Bills with
20:44
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, the one time they went to the Jags
20:47
Speaker 1: they lost. They're not that familiar with going there now
20:50
Speaker 1: the Jags. The Jags also they played last week, so
20:57
Speaker 1: they because they were trying to win the game, so
20:59
Speaker 1: they played their so I think that helps them have momentum,
21:02
Speaker 1: whereas the Bills. They literally had Josh Allen take one
21:05
Speaker 1: snap against the Jets because they wanted to keep his
21:08
Speaker 1: streak intact with starting games, and then they took him out,
21:12
Speaker 1: so it was Mitch Trubisky and they're actually for the
21:14
Speaker 1: whole game. He was shredding the Jets in that game.
21:17
Speaker 1: I think it was the Jets, right, yeah, I think so.
21:20
Speaker 1: So the Jaguars I think have more momentum just because
21:23
Speaker 1: they played their starters last week. Although it was, you know,
21:26
Speaker 1: kind of a top it wannt to be I think
21:28
Speaker 1: kind of a win.
21:29
Speaker 2: No, it was an easy win. Right, Who did they play?
21:31
Speaker 2: I don't know, they played some bad team. I think
21:33
Speaker 2: I think they won easily. I forget who it was,
21:35
Speaker 2: so I do like that. I actually like the Jags
21:37
Speaker 2: here man. And the other thing about the Bills is.
21:41
Speaker 1: They haven't won a road playoff game in thirty three
21:44
Speaker 1: years the Bills, So I don't know. There's a lot
21:47
Speaker 1: of history there that's going against the Bills. It would
21:51
Speaker 1: be crazy if Josh Allen has won and done here,
21:53
Speaker 1: but I think it might happen. I'm gonna go with
21:56
Speaker 1: the Jags in that one for now. I'm gonna see
21:57
Speaker 1: what the money looks like there though. Oh well, but
22:00
Speaker 1: of course, actually I have to figure out who's gonna
22:02
Speaker 1: get to the final though, so I shouldn't be doing
22:05
Speaker 1: these like who's gonna get to.
22:07
Speaker 2: The conference championship? So I shouldn't be doing this yet.
22:09
Speaker 1: Shit fuck, Okay, hang on, well, I gotta see, like
22:15
Speaker 1: what's the path gonna be as well? Like if these
22:17
Speaker 1: teams win and then Patriots Chargers is a really tough
22:20
Speaker 1: game to figure out because, of course, the Patriots face
22:25
Speaker 1: the easiest schedule in the NFL, which is not good.
22:28
Speaker 1: They literally have one win against a team with a
22:30
Speaker 1: winning record, which was that road win at the Bills
22:33
Speaker 1: by three points, and of course the Bills also beat
22:36
Speaker 1: the Patriots at home. I believe all three Patriot losses
22:41
Speaker 1: I believe came at home. So I don't know if
22:43
Speaker 1: that's great either. I'm pretty sure that's strong. I'll have
22:46
Speaker 1: to make sure of that.
22:47
Speaker 2: But it is gonna be cold.
22:49
Speaker 1: I can tell you it's gonna be like in the thirties,
22:51
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be cold rain here. It looks like
22:54
Speaker 1: up in New England here, So not that great for
22:57
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Uh, These Dome teams, by the way, playing
23:01
Speaker 1: in the wildcard round outdoors. I believe they've won one
23:05
Speaker 1: game in their last fifteen games, so that's not a
23:07
Speaker 1: good sign.
23:08
Speaker 2: For the Chargers.
23:09
Speaker 1: So there are reasons to not want anything to do
23:12
Speaker 1: with either of the teams in that game. You know,
23:15
Speaker 1: I think I would probably still have to go with
23:16
Speaker 1: the Patriots though, just they are the favorite, but spread wise,
23:21
Speaker 1: I think Chargers plus three and a half might actually
23:23
Speaker 1: be the way to go, although in the wildcard round,
23:25
Speaker 1: whoever covers usually wins the game. Ugh, But do I, man,
23:32
Speaker 1: do I really want to go with the Patriots like
23:35
Speaker 1: it would be possibly the Patriots getting to the conference final?
23:39
Speaker 2: Here?
23:39
Speaker 1: I don't know if I even want to do that.
23:42
Speaker 1: Let me see, I want to look at these futures
23:44
Speaker 1: again here, I don't know. I'm not building this as
23:48
Speaker 1: backwards as I should have. Hold on, where are the futures?
23:51
Speaker 1: What are we doing here? What did I don't even
23:54
Speaker 1: know what I did. I want to see the futures.
23:57
Speaker 1: I gotta see the future, all right?
24:00
Speaker 2: Conference winner?
24:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, Patriots are plus three to ninety, Jags plus yeah,
24:05
Speaker 1: I mean taking either one of them kind of makes sense,
24:08
Speaker 1: I guess to get to that stage. I mean, all right,
24:15
Speaker 1: and then if the Jags have to play in cold weather,
24:18
Speaker 1: I don't love that though. Having the Patriots get that
24:20
Speaker 1: far when they haven't beaten anybody like this, I'm.
24:23
Speaker 2: Gonna have to think about this. Ugh.
24:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't love it, man, I really don't. But yeah,
24:32
Speaker 1: that's I guess that's what I'm gonna do. It seems
24:34
Speaker 1: too public about whatever. And then over here in this round,
24:38
Speaker 1: I am gonna pick the Packers over the Bears.
24:40
Speaker 2: You know, may the Bears.
24:42
Speaker 1: Dude, the Bears are fraud I'll handicap that game more
24:45
Speaker 1: when we get to that game. But it's like a
24:47
Speaker 1: pick them line right now. But the Packers should be
24:49
Speaker 1: a favorite on the road. They should have won both
24:52
Speaker 1: games against the Bears. The way that they lost that
24:54
Speaker 1: game at Chicago, Chicago hadn't even scored a touchdown until
24:57
Speaker 1: the final minutes of the game, and they had to
24:59
Speaker 1: have an on side kick to even get into opportunity
25:02
Speaker 1: to send the game into overtime. And the Packers had
25:04
Speaker 1: to be down to a third string quarterback. Now, I
25:07
Speaker 1: guess the one issue with the Packers is Jordan Love
25:09
Speaker 1: hasn't played in like two weeks. He's going to play here,
25:13
Speaker 1: but he might be a little bit rusty, but I
25:14
Speaker 1: think once he gets back out there, obviously, the experience
25:18
Speaker 1: is a huge edge for the Packers. I mean, you're
25:20
Speaker 1: talking about a quarterback in his first playoff game, and
25:24
Speaker 1: by the way, quarterbacks in their first playoff games, they
25:26
Speaker 1: don't do well against a quarterback that has played in
25:29
Speaker 1: the playoffs before. And that applies to Drake May Caleb
25:33
Speaker 1: Williams maybe just those two here, oh and Bryce Young.
25:39
Speaker 1: It applies to those three, I think, and those quarterbacks
25:43
Speaker 1: do not do well. I'm just gonna put that out
25:46
Speaker 1: there right now. So they're I think they're like I
25:51
Speaker 1: forget I saw the stat I think they're like one
25:53
Speaker 1: for their last fifteen or something like that.
25:55
Speaker 2: So that's not good.
25:57
Speaker 1: Now, obviously I'm not picking the pay Obviously, I'm picking
25:59
Speaker 1: the There's no question about that. The Rams Giant favorite
26:03
Speaker 1: at the Panthers whatever. So that's gonna set us up
26:06
Speaker 1: with which team do I want to have get here
26:09
Speaker 1: against the Well, I already have the Eagles beating the Rams.
26:12
Speaker 1: I guess if I have the Eagles getting through this
26:13
Speaker 1: whole thing, so that means the Eagles have to win
26:16
Speaker 1: at home against the Rams.
26:18
Speaker 2: Yeah all right.
26:18
Speaker 1: I mean they did it this year once they did
26:20
Speaker 1: it last year as well, though the Rams did play
26:22
Speaker 1: them pretty well. Seahawks will be a favorite at home
26:26
Speaker 1: against the Packers. I guess I'll go Seahawks there and
26:30
Speaker 1: then have the Eagles bounce them in the Conference championship.
26:34
Speaker 2: That's my bracket. I don't know if I love it. Yeah,
26:38
Speaker 2: it'll be Broncos and Eagles in the super Bowl. That'll
26:42
Speaker 2: do it.
26:43
Speaker 1: My NFL brackets have not been great metal the last year.
26:45
Speaker 1: I got both super Bowl teams right last year though,
26:48
Speaker 1: so that wasn't too bad at all. I did have
26:49
Speaker 1: the Eagles and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but
26:51
Speaker 1: I think I had the.
26:52
Speaker 2: Chiefs winning it unfortunately. So that'll do it. Man.
26:57
Speaker 1: That's that's what I got for you. I know, it's
26:59
Speaker 1: not that interesting. It'll be more interesting to handicap these
27:02
Speaker 1: individual games here. Cole will be happy about this, but whatever.
27:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if I love it, to be honest.
27:09
Speaker 1: Nix is still very inexperience. He's got one playoff game
27:13
Speaker 1: under his belt last year, but at least he does
27:15
Speaker 1: have that one and it was a loss, so there.
27:18
Speaker 2: Is that you know, he at least has that experience
27:22
Speaker 2: and will improve I would think at least. Yeah.
27:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw that Vivac said that he's quitting social media,
27:31
Speaker 1: and people superimposed that with a tweet of his from
27:35
Speaker 1: December that said that if you can't take like the
27:38
Speaker 1: heat on social media and then you shouldn't be you
27:41
Speaker 1: shouldn't be like in a political campaign. Oh my god, dude. Yeah,
27:47
Speaker 1: these people are such hypocrites, y have Avac. He sucks,
27:50
Speaker 1: He's he's done. I mean even though his opponent there,
27:54
Speaker 1: Push is a zionis unfortunately as well.
27:56
Speaker 2: I would still I prefer Push over Vivek. Obvious. All right,
28:01
Speaker 2: that's gonna do it, man.
28:02
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's Bronco's over Patriots in the AFC Championship,
28:06
Speaker 1: Eagles over Seahawks in the NFC Championship, and then Broncos.
28:10
Speaker 2: Over Eagles to the Super Bowl. We'll see what happens.
28:14
Speaker 1: I don't know if the Patriots are really gonna be
28:16
Speaker 1: able to do this though, after only having one win
28:18
Speaker 1: against a winning team, man, so, and that team also
28:22
Speaker 1: beat them, so I don't know.
28:24
Speaker 2: We'll see the Patriots.
28:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, they did beat Carolinah, they beat another playoff team
28:29
Speaker 1: but Carolina is below five hundred.
28:31
Speaker 2: All right, that's gonna do it. We'll talk more. I'll
28:34
Speaker 2: be back tomorrow morning.
28:35
Speaker 1: We have college football playoffs resuming tomorrow with one of
28:40
Speaker 1: the games tomorrow, so I think once tomorrow and one's Friday,
28:44
Speaker 1: so we'll.
28:45
Speaker 2: Talk about that.
28:45
Speaker 1: Then.
28:46
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for me for now. Man.
28:48
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, thanks for hanging out everybody for this about
28:51
Speaker 1: a half hour.
28:53
Speaker 2: Oh thank you. I don't think it was that great,
28:55
Speaker 2: but I appreciate it. Thank you, sir.
28:58
Speaker 1: Tomorrow morning, I'm gonna be ranting hard at some of
29:01
Speaker 1: these losses that we took today that were absolute bullshit.
29:04
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it was three of them that were
29:06
Speaker 1: just complete ps.
29:07
Speaker 2: Maybe it was just two.
29:09
Speaker 1: I'm really pissed off right now. One of them actually
29:12
Speaker 1: wound up being a push I think, but i'll talk
29:14
Speaker 1: about it tomorrow. Horrible, we have to bounce back. That's
29:17
Speaker 1: going to do it for now. Trust the process, man
29:20
Speaker 1: in peace for now,