Latest / Financial Futures: A Measured Wealth Podcast / AI, Personal Credit & the Economy Ahead with Dr. Stan V. Smith
Transcript
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: The information and opinions presented in this podcast, including the views of guests not affiliated with measured wealth, is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice.
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- 0:42SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Financial Futures, a Measured Wealth podcast powered by the team at Measured Wealth along the beautiful New Hampshire Seacoast.
- 0:51SPEAKER_01: Each episode, we're bringing you fresh insights on retirement, investing, and everything you need to take control of your financial future.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: Whether you're preparing for retirement or already living it, we're here to help you make informed choices with confidence.
- 1:04SPEAKER_01: To kick off today's conversation, here's your host, certified financial planner and chartered financial analyst, George Zaharopoulos.
- 1:16SPEAKER_02: Hello everyone.
- 1:42SPEAKER_02: Dr.
- 1:42SPEAKER_02: Stan was a former professor at DePaul and the University of Chicago, and has worked for some of the biggest firms as an economic consultant, including the Federal Reserve System.
- 1:53SPEAKER_02: Dr.
- 1:53SPEAKER_02: Stan, it's an honor to be speaking with you today.
- 1:56SPEAKER_03: But it's a pleasure to be here, George.
- 1:58SPEAKER_02: Your background is fascinating.
- 1:59SPEAKER_02: Can you tell us more about it and more about the focus of your business at the Smith Economics Group?
- 2:05SPEAKER_03: Oh, sure.
- 2:06SPEAKER_03: So background after graduating University of Chicago, which is a renowned area of research, more Nobel Prize winners in economics from the University of Chicago than all the other universities in the world combined.
- 2:20SPEAKER_03: But I was taught by many of them and then had a short work at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- 2:26SPEAKER_03: I jokingly say I did not create any recessions when I was in my late 20s, and then went to work for J.B.
- 2:34SPEAKER_03: Morgan Chase for a short time and a few other places, but ultimately, including an investment banking firm, and ultimately my own firm for the last many uh decades.
- 2:44SPEAKER_02: Excellent.
- 2:44SPEAKER_02: You know, at the Smith Economics Group, what's your focus?
- 2:47SPEAKER_02: What do you are you doing a lot of economic valuations, analysis?
- 2:51SPEAKER_03: Yes, we do business valuation, so that has to take into account the economy in various different industries.
- 3:11SPEAKER_03: Of my firm and as a director of a public company looking to cure uh lung cancer worldwide.
- 3:18SPEAKER_03: We also do uh business consulting of all sorts, and then uh some testimonies in courts regarding business losses if one company is suing another company, patent infringement, things like that.
- 3:30SPEAKER_02: And you've also written extensively about personal credit as well, is that correct?
- 3:35SPEAKER_03: Yes, I have uh a number of articles on credit.
- 3:38SPEAKER_02: So that's one of the areas.
- 3:39SPEAKER_02: There's actually a couple of areas I'd like to talk to you about today, but let's start with personal credit.
- 3:45SPEAKER_02: How important is personal credit and maintaining excellent credit for any of our listeners out there?
- 3:51SPEAKER_03: Sure.
- 3:51SPEAKER_03: So everybody should pay attention to personal credit because it will impact what your credit card interest rates may be.
- 3:58SPEAKER_03: And lots of people have credit cards in which they don't pay off the balances every month.
- 4:03SPEAKER_03: So there is an interest rate impact.
- 4:05SPEAKER_03: Uh it can impact uh your lease.
- 4:07SPEAKER_03: So your owners of buildings will check your credit score to see how likely are you to be able to pay a lease.
- 4:13SPEAKER_03: So whether you get a lease or not, and maybe even they would raise the rates a bit for the lease.
- 4:18SPEAKER_03: It has to do with uh, for example, you want to get a mortgage.
- 4:22SPEAKER_03: Uh, that will certainly impact the mortgage rates.
- 4:25SPEAKER_03: You can just Google that and you'll see credits backed on mortgage rates, lots of areas.
- 4:30SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 4:30SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, higher mortgage rates is obviously gonna mean you know, more cash flow to service that debt.
- 4:39SPEAKER_02: And, you know, that's part of what we do here as far as counseling goes and long-term wealth building is to, you know, make people aware that higher interest rates are certainly gonna reduce the amount that they can put towards their investments for long-term savings and growth.
- 4:56SPEAKER_02: But in addition to that, a lot of other negative effects too, right?
- 4:59SPEAKER_02: I mean, employment um offers may be withdrawn.
- 5:03SPEAKER_03: Employers can check your credit score there, definitely.
- 5:06SPEAKER_03: Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Yeah.
- 5:06SPEAKER_02: And reduced borrowing capacity can limit the amount that you purchase for a home, the size of the home that you want to purchase, or invest in different other entities.
- 5:17SPEAKER_02: So that can also have a negative effect, right?
- 5:18SPEAKER_03: Aaron Ross Powell, Right.
- 5:19SPEAKER_03: So the two big loans, a mortgage and a car loan, it will impact and it can impact your insurance rates even.
- 5:26SPEAKER_03: I'm not saying that someone you're dating will check your credit score to see if you should they should marry you or not.
- 5:32SPEAKER_03: So there are some areas where it will not have any impact.
- 5:36SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 5:37SPEAKER_02: What should people be doing to uh monitor their credit?
- 5:42SPEAKER_02: What should people be doing uh consistently to make sure that their credit is not being damaged?
- 5:47SPEAKER_03: Well, uh first of all, just to maintain good credit, you pay your loans off in time as much as you can.
- 5:55SPEAKER_03: Certainly any defaults should be avoided.
- 5:57SPEAKER_03: Uh, any late payment should be avoided.
- 5:59SPEAKER_03: I think you can be forgiven one late payment, but if there's more, that will stay on a permanent record for seven years.
- 6:06SPEAKER_03: So uh you want to keep timely on that.
- 6:09SPEAKER_03: It's actually good to have more credit than you use.
- 6:13SPEAKER_03: So, how much of your credit you use can impact your credit score?
- 6:18SPEAKER_03: So if you have more than one credit card, and sometimes the credit cards are very low fees per year, it's a good idea to have multiple credit cards that you don't use all much on each because the amount you use, the less you use of your total credit, the better your score.
- 6:35SPEAKER_02: And is that the way to fast track good credit is to maybe have the credit, but not necessarily use it to the to the fullest extent?
- 6:45SPEAKER_02: Um Yes.
- 6:45SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 6:46SPEAKER_03: Yes, I have much more credit than I use precisely for that impact.
- 6:54SPEAKER_02: And let's say someone has an identity theft event, um, and this is something that's uh happening out there today a lot.
- 7:03SPEAKER_02: Most people think, if it hasn't happened to them yet already, that it's more of an inconvenience.
- 7:09SPEAKER_02: But how serious can those consequences become?
- 7:12SPEAKER_03: Aaron Powell It can be devastating.
- 7:13SPEAKER_03: I actually have worked on legal cases where people have been fired, they've been they've had their mortgages uh recalled.
- 7:21SPEAKER_03: Uh they've actually had with uh credit theft mortgages applied for that are not even theirs.
- 7:29SPEAKER_03: And so it can be enormously impactful.
- 7:32SPEAKER_03: And there are many ways in which you can safeguard your identity theft and your credit theft.
- 7:38SPEAKER_03: And one is to be notified, for example, every time uh one of the three credit agencies experience Equifax or TransUnion, when they receive an inquiry, you are informed.
- 7:50SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 7:51SPEAKER_02: So so one of the takeaway action items might be for someone to engage in a service that might notify them if something is is being done with their credit?
- 8:02SPEAKER_03: Yes.
- 8:02SPEAKER_03: It's very in this day and age, and especially with the emergence of AI, and uh there almost is no such thing as privacy.
- 8:10SPEAKER_03: And so I strongly recommend that there be at least notification, if not lock.
- 8:18SPEAKER_03: Uh this the credit agencies like Experian or Equifax or TransUnion, they will lock it and notify you of an application for credit, and you can then unlock it.
- 8:29SPEAKER_03: So if you do legitimately take out a new credit card, you go shopping, some store, they say, Oh, we have a credit card and you get 20% off, apply for the card, that's not unusual.
- 8:39SPEAKER_03: And then you can unlock it for that transaction, then lock it back on.
- 8:43SPEAKER_03: But you're notified.
- 8:44SPEAKER_03: So if you do it, of course you approve it.
- 8:46SPEAKER_03: But if somebody else does it, you don't recognize it, you can stop it.
- 8:50SPEAKER_03: But uh credit theft or can be very damaging.
- 8:52SPEAKER_03: Sometimes there are credit file mergers that are completely innocent errors at the credit agencies where they've merged you and somebody else, similar name.
- 9:04SPEAKER_03: And uh you have to look for that too.
- 9:05SPEAKER_03: So you should look at your credit scores and you should look at your credit reports uh monthly.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: Uh I I bet that can create a lot of stress for people.
- 9:16SPEAKER_02: So taking these action items beforehand might save a lot on that.
- 9:20SPEAKER_02: Um, because in reality, how long can credit credit damage persist after an event like that?
- 9:27SPEAKER_03: It it'll persist for seven years.
- 9:29SPEAKER_03: Your credit scores and your negative events will stay on for seven years, and it can take quite some time to remedy an error, such as your you and somebody else with a similar name having confused credit options, and so their debt winds up on your credit report.
- 9:46SPEAKER_02: Interesting.
- 9:46SPEAKER_02: Okay, great.
- 9:47SPEAKER_02: Uh well, Dr.
- 9:48SPEAKER_02: Stan, uh I want to pivot a little bit uh to AI.
- 9:52SPEAKER_02: It's seems to be a topic on everyone's mind these days, including myself.
- 9:57SPEAKER_02: Just interested in your views.
- 9:58SPEAKER_02: How is AI taking shape?
- 10:00SPEAKER_02: How is it going to affect the economy in the next decade?
- 10:03SPEAKER_02: What are your thoughts there?
- 10:04SPEAKER_03: Okay.
- 10:05SPEAKER_03: Well, I see it uh nothing less than one of the most important events of our lifetime.
- 10:11SPEAKER_03: So the discovery of electricity revolutionized the world.
- 10:15SPEAKER_03: The discovery of oil underground as opposed to using oil from whaling ships revolutionized, the invention of the steam engine revolutionized, uh, the industrial revolution.
- 10:28SPEAKER_03: AI is another revolution as important as anything.
- 10:32SPEAKER_03: Uh, maybe the earliest revolution was the printing press, where we could send information around the world through a piece of paper.
- 10:40SPEAKER_03: It didn't have to be early transmitted.
- 10:43SPEAKER_03: That was a revolution in education and information.
- 10:46SPEAKER_03: This is I believe its importance and its impact cannot be underestimated and almost cannot be exaggerated.
- 10:55SPEAKER_03: I think the negative effects might be exaggerated.
- 10:58SPEAKER_03: I think the positive effects will be phenomenal.
- 11:00SPEAKER_03: Trevor Burrus, Jr.
- 11:01SPEAKER_02: That is refreshing to hear.
- 11:03SPEAKER_02: Because actually, one of my next questions was whether we're overestimating or underestimating the future impact of AI.
- 11:10SPEAKER_02: Um, but this, based on what you just said, it's going to be a game changer.
- 11:14unknown: Trevor Burrus, Jr.
- 11:14SPEAKER_03: For example, people say, well, it's going to replace jobs.
- 11:17SPEAKER_03: Actually, what we're finding is that it will help people do their job better and they can do even more.
- 11:25SPEAKER_03: So my company could take on more work.
- 11:27SPEAKER_03: What a good thing.
- 11:29SPEAKER_02: So not necessarily an economic value add via cost reductions only, but we're looking at creating new types of products and services with AI and just increased productivity as well.
- 11:44SPEAKER_02: Trevor Burrus, Jr.
- 11:44SPEAKER_03: As well, and some of the tedium of jobs can be alleviated so that there's a lot of minor tedious admin work we all do, and AI can help us move to the more high-level thinking as opposed to the lower level admin tracking.
- 12:01SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 12:02SPEAKER_02: And you know, AI translates into the markets as well.
- 12:05SPEAKER_02: We've seen the capital expenditure in AI kind of carry this market a little bit initially earlier in the year.
- 12:14SPEAKER_02: What economic indicators should we be watching out for to determine if AI is really transforming the economy versus simply attracting investments?
- 12:23SPEAKER_03: Aaron Ross Powell Well, if you if we look at our gross national product, it will ultimately show up as an impact there.
- 12:31SPEAKER_03: And I think it will be a very positive impact of an increased several percentage over the course of time, higher than it would normally otherwise be.
- 12:43SPEAKER_03: Some industries will be impacted more than others.
- 12:46SPEAKER_03: I actually don't have a particular prediction, but you know, farming can be made more efficient.
- 12:51SPEAKER_03: You'll have tractors that will be looking at you know visually with drones and AI to determine when's the ideal time to harvest so it's not too early, too late.
- 13:02SPEAKER_03: It can impact farming, a pretty basic industry, but also banking, interactions with customers, etc.
- 13:10SPEAKER_02: Mm-hmm.
- 13:10SPEAKER_02: That's great to hear.
- 13:11SPEAKER_02: Uh glad you're behind it.
- 13:15SPEAKER_02: Um so want to switch to one more topic, too, and that's related to tariffs.
- 13:23SPEAKER_02: Wanted to talk about this because this has kind of re-emerged in the news recently.
- 13:28SPEAKER_02: In general, just for our audience, what problems are tariffs designed to solve?
- 13:34SPEAKER_03: Well, one of the original purposes of tariffs was to protect industries that we need for national defense.
- 13:43SPEAKER_03: So we want to maintain the ability to build ships and munitions and items related to defense.
- 13:52SPEAKER_03: Do we really need to protect our ability to produce wine?
- 13:57SPEAKER_03: Not so sure.
- 13:58SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 13:58SPEAKER_03: Although everybody loves wine, but so what happens is we not only have national defense, which is very important, but then different senators and congressmen will try and get tariffs to protect local industries that aren't so important for national survival to benefit their clients.
- 14:18SPEAKER_03: So you know, we certainly want the ability to produce chips, that's very important.
- 14:23SPEAKER_03: Do we want the ability to produce paper cups?
- 14:27SPEAKER_03: Well, is that so critical?
- 14:29SPEAKER_03: Should we put a tariff on some things that just don't matter much, like baseball bats or uh shoes?
- 14:36SPEAKER_03: That's a little less critical.
- 14:38SPEAKER_02: For those industries that we're looking to protect, how effective are our tariffs?
- 14:44SPEAKER_02: Do they do they do the job?
- 14:46SPEAKER_03: Well, I we will see the impact as we change the tariff, but we want to create a tariff that will do the job.
- 14:52SPEAKER_03: So we want our own ability to produce drones for warfare is important, and we need to create tariffs where our drone industry is protected.
- 15:05SPEAKER_03: We may not do it as cheaply as another country, but in the event of urgent need, we want to make sure that we can produce defense-related industries here.
- 15:17SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 15:17SPEAKER_02: How do you feel about tariffs with regard to large versus small companies?
- 15:22SPEAKER_02: Are they you know are they equal?
- 15:24SPEAKER_02: Do they affect you know the size of a company equally, or really that depends on the product they they either import or export?
- 15:32SPEAKER_03: I think it depends on the company.
- 15:34SPEAKER_03: So it's the industry we want to protect, and that could be small or medium or large-size companies within that industry.
- 15:44SPEAKER_02: Excellent.
- 15:45SPEAKER_02: Do you think uh this is just more of a an an opinion.
- 15:49SPEAKER_02: Um well actually I just want to circle back to back in 2025 when the administration first announced the tariffs.
- 15:58SPEAKER_02: Uh there was a retreat in the market of like 20 percent.
- 16:01SPEAKER_02: Do you think the market had it right?
- 16:03SPEAKER_02: Are they seeing tariffs as a as a negative uh to the economy?
- 16:07SPEAKER_02: Uh or do you think they have it wrong?
- 16:10SPEAKER_03: I think there was some minor impact, but it I don't not sure it was as great as what you mentioned.
- 16:16SPEAKER_03: And and right now we are at a stock market you know high this year or very, very near the high.
- 16:24SPEAKER_03: So the the tariffs have had not a reduced reduction in the growth, reduction in the market level.
- 16:30SPEAKER_03: Perhaps the markets would be a little bit higher without some of the what I would call politically motivated tariffs.
- 16:37SPEAKER_03: Uh you know, if if we say, okay, this country didn't let our airplanes land in order to fight the war in Iran, whether the tariff is used as a punishment.
- 16:48SPEAKER_03: That's a political decision.
- 16:49SPEAKER_03: Some people think that's not a good economic decision.
- 16:52SPEAKER_03: I agree that I don't think we want to punish economically a country that somehow found it difficult for us to call it, difficult for them to cooperate.
- 17:03SPEAKER_03: Spain, for example, did not help us at all regarding Iran.
- 17:07SPEAKER_03: Other European countries did.
- 17:08SPEAKER_03: Not so sure about the punishment politically.
- 17:11SPEAKER_02: Trevor Burrus, Jr.
- 17:12SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 17:12SPEAKER_02: Okay, so better to be used as an economic uh policy tool versus uh a geopolitical type of tactic.
- 17:22SPEAKER_03: Well, it it does fire a warning shot.
- 17:24SPEAKER_03: I can't say that that's a bad thing to do.
- 17:27SPEAKER_03: Some people think that the amount of tariffs overall for the various reasons has been perhaps a bit too liberal.
- 17:36SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 17:36SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 17:37SPEAKER_02: So a successful tariff strategy, in your opinion, what would that look like?
- 17:42SPEAKER_02: I know you mentioned before protecting certain industries that we want to make sure that we we protect.
- 17:47SPEAKER_02: Um, but what does that look like, kind of a successful um tariff strategy?
- 17:52SPEAKER_03: Aaron Powell Well, I think first and foremost, national defense.
- 17:55SPEAKER_03: Uh secondly, we we can target countries where we want to sanction, for example.
- 18:00SPEAKER_03: We don't find China and Russia to be particularly friendly nations to us, so we may want to impose costs on their economy uh through tariffs.
- 18:11SPEAKER_03: It it does impact us.
- 18:13SPEAKER_03: On the other hand, it does let them know that you know we we find them a threat.
- 18:17SPEAKER_03: China is a geopolitical and military threat.
- 18:21SPEAKER_03: It's a threat.
- 18:22SPEAKER_03: Even Japan is saying Chinese warships are entering into their waters, testing their ability to respond.
- 18:30SPEAKER_03: Our uh CIA says they hear about plans for Russia to make maybe some incursion into Germany.
- 18:37SPEAKER_03: These are very, very prospectively dangerous things for which we may want to send signals of sanctions in the form of tariffs for even thinking about the prospect of invading a NATO country such as Germany.
- 18:53SPEAKER_02: Aaron Ross Powell One of the things I should have actually started out with was how does a tariff actually work?
- 18:59SPEAKER_02: Who pays the tariff?
- 19:00SPEAKER_02: Because that's that's like a big debate in the news as well.
- 19:05SPEAKER_02: Um can you explain how that that process works?
- 19:08SPEAKER_03: It's added to the price.
- 19:10SPEAKER_03: So the company uh, you know, if you're producing a car in Europe and you send it to the U.S., uh the company sending it here will have to pay a tariff or a tax on the value of that car imported here.
- 19:24SPEAKER_03: Now, the difficulty about cars is across the river from Detroit is a city called Windsor, where our U.S.
- 19:32SPEAKER_03: manufacturers own production plants.
- 19:36SPEAKER_03: And so tariffs on cars made in Canada actually is tariffs on General Motors Chrysler with foreign with foreign locations.
- 19:47SPEAKER_03: That's not the same as taxing to a tariff or putting a tariff on a BMW in Germany, which is not a U.S.
- 19:55SPEAKER_03: company.
- 19:56SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 19:57SPEAKER_02: All right, Dr.
- 19:58SPEAKER_02: Stan, uh this has been great.
- 19:59SPEAKER_02: Uh has is there anything else uh that we may have missed with respect to personal credit or just general ideas on AI or tariffs?
- 20:09SPEAKER_02: Anything we've missed that you'd like to maybe mention?
- 20:12SPEAKER_03: Uh no, I I think the issues on credit are fairly well settled, resolved.
- 20:17SPEAKER_03: It's not a very highly dynamically changing, other than protecting the danger of theft that is increasing nationwide.
- 20:26SPEAKER_03: And people call you and say, oh, uh, you didn't pay your loan on time, give us your credit card or give us your your social security number.
- 20:33SPEAKER_03: So there's a lot of theft.
- 20:34SPEAKER_03: So that has to be more and more now than ever.
- 20:37SPEAKER_03: But in general, maintaining good credit is the way we've been doing it for quite some time.
- 20:41SPEAKER_03: The impact of AI is very dynamic, and we're at the beginning of seeing it.
- 20:47SPEAKER_03: So stay tuned.
- 20:48SPEAKER_03: Nothing we've said now will necessarily stay true for the next year.
- 20:53SPEAKER_03: And on tariffs, that's uh that's more of a just a story.
- 20:58SPEAKER_03: We'll see.
- 20:59SPEAKER_03: We all know the economics of tariffs, we all know the impact of tariffs.
- 21:03SPEAKER_03: There's nothing new there other than where and when and how much.
- 21:07SPEAKER_03: Those are always political and economic choices, where I think defense should be the number one.
- 21:13SPEAKER_02: Excellent.
- 21:13SPEAKER_02: Dr.
- 21:14SPEAKER_02: Stan, these have been amazing insights.
- 21:16SPEAKER_02: If someone wanted to learn more about you andor your organization, where could they find more information?
- 21:22SPEAKER_03: Oh gosh.
- 21:23SPEAKER_03: Uh, so my company is smitheconomics.com.
- 21:27SPEAKER_03: It's on the uh we have a website.
- 21:29SPEAKER_03: Most of it is oriented more towards the litigation area.
- 21:33SPEAKER_03: And I have a uh Wikipedia somebody created a Wikipedia page about or Wikipedia created the page about me, which is just Stan v.
- 21:43SPEAKER_03: Smith.
- 21:44SPEAKER_03: Not to be confused with the wonderful tennis player of my generation, uh, who some people who I know is a little bit taller, a little bit older, but some people say not as good looking.
- 21:55SPEAKER_03: So what can I tell you?
- 21:56SPEAKER_02: Excellent.
- 21:57SPEAKER_02: Um and and you're out in Chicago, correct?
- 22:00SPEAKER_02: And yes.
- 22:01SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 22:01SPEAKER_02: Downtown.
- 22:02SPEAKER_02: Awesome.
- 22:03SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 22:04SPEAKER_02: Well, well, thank you again for joining.
- 22:06SPEAKER_02: And thanks everyone for tuning into Financial Futures, a Measured Wealth Podcast.
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- 22:35SPEAKER_02: Thanks again for listening, and remember the future will someday be the present.