Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW: Is BlackRock FORCING $200T into Bitcoin?! | EP 1487
Transcript
- 0:01BlackRock started the institutional Bitcoin frenzy in
- 0:052024, and they're getting even more bullish.
- 0:09But the real question is why now?
- 0:11When BlackRock originally published a report announcing a
- 0:144% Bitcoin allocation was optimal, almost no one listen.
- 0:19However, since then, we've seen nearly every Wall Street giant
- 0:24compete to get their hands on your Bitcoin.
- 0:27And judging by what Blackrock's head of digital assets just said
- 0:31on Fox News, that competition is about to explode.
- 0:36Let's play the clip. That's at BlackRock.
- 0:39J Jacobs OK first establish your long term view of crypto.
- 0:42Well, Bitcoin in particular is this non, you know, non
- 0:46sovereign global decentralized asset that can really provide
- 0:49value to people's portfolios in small doses as a unique asset,
- 0:53sort of like how gold doesn't behave like stocks or bonds.
- 0:56Bitcoin is driven by its own rules and its own drivers
- 0:59predominantly which is greater geopolitical or inflation risk.
- 1:02And frankly, we live in a world where these are prevalent risks
- 1:05around the economy where people want to hedge that with
- 1:07different assets. Isn't that interesting?
- 1:08It used to be fringe and now thanks very much in part to
- 1:13Larry Fink, your boss and iShares coming out with the I
- 1:16bit. This is more than two years ago
- 1:19now that it really became this opportunity for people to
- 1:22understand it. Are you saying now that Bitcoin
- 1:25and crypto are long term investments?
- 1:29I think you have to look at it through a long term lens because
- 1:31it's volatile, because we see over weeks, months, it can be up
- 1:33and down. People are still trying to
- 1:35figure out what the, you know, what the value of this asset is,
- 1:38but if you zoom out and take a long term view of the role it
- 1:40can play in a portfolio, it can really be one of those
- 1:43diversifiers that behaves unique from stocks and bonds.
- 1:45When somebody who is Bitcoin curious comes out and says to
- 1:48you, Jay, what is the value? One minute in October it's
- 1:51126,000, Today it's 76,000. You have to look at it in the
- 1:56context of a broader portfolio. We can't put a specific price
- 1:59target on it on a given moment. It really has to do with how
- 2:02much do people need this asset that can behave uniquely, that
- 2:06can be a geopolitical hedge that's constantly changing
- 2:08around the world. When you see, you know, more
- 2:11currency debasement, when you see rising government debts,
- 2:14when you see that more people want to move assets across
- 2:16borders, that's going to increase the value of something
- 2:18like Bitcoin. And so in this world, we see
- 2:20that as a structural trend that's growing.
- 2:23But minute by minute, that demand and supply is going to
- 2:24change. Interesting to watch, right?
- 2:28First of all, obviously I'm not the biggest fan of BlackRock.
- 2:33You guys know this. I'm sure everyone in the chat's
- 2:35not the biggest fan of BlackRock, but again, what Uncle
- 2:39Larry wants usually Uncle Larry gets.
- 2:42If you are more of a tinfoil hat person, you might be saying that
- 2:46Larry Larry Fink actually runs the world.
- 2:49Well, it seems like that is the case again in 2024 when they
- 2:53launched the Bitcoin ETF, it fundamentally changed the
- 2:57trajectory of Bitcoin and, and arguably at least in the last
- 3:01two years, not really for the better yet, but we are starting
- 3:05to see that things have fundamentally changed on the
- 3:09just grand idea, the the overall general idea of what Bitcoin is
- 3:14shouldn't be a part of your portfolio, should it not be?
- 3:17And as you heard in that clip, he's basically saying, yeah,
- 3:20actually, you know, Bitcoin can actually help you.
- 3:24It should be a part of your portfolio.
- 3:26Again, they have been saying this since they launched the
- 3:29ETF. But now we're starting to see
- 3:31that it's coming from basically every corner of Wall Street at
- 3:35this point saying, look, not only should you buy Bitcoin, but
- 3:39obviously you should buy our Bitcoin product.
- 3:42And that's probably the real, the real shill here.
- 3:45They are talking their books. But when you listen to that
- 3:49clip, it is very interesting. The, the, the main clip that
- 3:52really stuck out to me is that what he said, You know, Bitcoin
- 3:55is driven by its own rules. Now, obviously in the past few
- 4:00years we have seen a lot of correlation between Bitcoin and
- 4:03stocks and equities or the kind of inverse relationship between
- 4:07gold and Bitcoin as a lot of us have been talking about
- 4:10recently. Since the suit coiners have came
- 4:13in, since the suits have came into Bitcoin, Bitcoin is trading
- 4:17a lot more like a macro asset because they are following the
- 4:21macro news, the macro landscape. And yes, they have a little bit
- 4:24of Bitcoin. So if they get spooked, they're
- 4:26probably going to sell Bitcoin first.
- 4:28If they're starting to get bullish because of the macro
- 4:30landscape, then they'll probably get a little more comfortable
- 4:33buying into Bitcoin. And I do want to rewind the
- 4:37track a little bit. I have the BlackRock reports
- 4:41that they launched a little while ago.
- 4:43I believe these were last year, end of 2024 when they launch.
- 4:48Here's the first one. I'm just going to read the
- 4:50conclusion. But Bitcoin, a unique
- 4:51diversifier. Why bitcoins appeal to investors
- 4:55lies in its detachment from traditional risk and return
- 4:58drivers. Again, this is an old report.
- 5:01They literally just said this yesterday.
- 5:03But the conclusion is probably the only thing that really
- 5:07matters in this whole thing. Everything else in this report
- 5:10you've probably already heard, and you definitely heard this
- 5:12conclusion, but I'm going to build the case of why they're
- 5:15doing everything that they're doing right now.
- 5:17So conclusion, while Bitcoin has shown instances of short term
- 5:21code movement with equities and other risk assets, over the
- 5:24longer term its fundamental drivers are starkly different
- 5:27and in many cases inverted versus most traditional
- 5:30investment. Oh, I'm not pulling it up.
- 5:32Sorry guys. Which is literally what we've
- 5:35been showing you on the show, what we've been covering, what I
- 5:38just said a minute ago. This isn't just me saying this.
- 5:42So if you don't like my funny accent, you don't like that I
- 5:45yell at you, you don't like me as a person, and maybe you don't
- 5:49like Black, maybe you like me more than BlackRock.
- 5:51I don't know. But they've been saying the same
- 5:54thing. And it has been getting lost in
- 5:57all of the news. And you know, the fact that
- 6:00Blackrock's the world's boogeyman and whatever they
- 6:03touch, they're going to destroy what they've been saying.
- 6:06And this, again, is over a year old.
- 6:08They've been saying exactly what's been going on if you're
- 6:10looking at the data. So whether you like them or not,
- 6:15this this conclusion is true. This conclusion is exactly how
- 6:18things are playing out anyways. Going further, as the global
- 6:22investment community grapples with rising geopolitical
- 6:24tensions, concerns over the state of U.S. debt and deficits,
- 6:28and increase political instability around the world,
- 6:30Bitcoin may be seen as an increasingly unique diversifier
- 6:34against some of these fiscal, monetary and geopolitical risk
- 6:36factors investors may face elsewhere in their portfolios.
- 6:42Have we not seen this literally play out to AT now again, maybe
- 6:47maybe your spider Spidey senses are popping up here and you're
- 6:50like, it's almost like maybe they are causing all of this
- 6:55instability and maybe they want a monetary reset.
- 6:59Maybe they want the escape valve of Bitcoin.
- 7:03I mean, I'm not going that far. I'm just saying there is a
- 7:06haunting similarity to what we've seen play out in the last
- 7:10year in regards to Bitcoin and in the macro landscape.
- 7:13It was literally that exact sentence that Black Rock said
- 7:17over a year ago as why people would want Bitcoin.
- 7:22And now we have the actual in real life examples of these
- 7:27things playing out. So you could say maybe they're
- 7:31manufacturing this or maybe they are some of the smartest people
- 7:34in the room, like that one documentary about Enron in the
- 7:38past. So you know, no, no correlation
- 7:39there, but it's the same, the smartest people in the room,
- 7:42right? Well, it played out exactly as
- 7:46they said in this old report by BlackRock.
- 7:48But moving further, I have the other report that they dropped
- 7:52and I believe this one was mid 2025 and this one is titled or
- 7:56sorry, this one was December 2024 and the other one was mid
- 8:002025. Sizing Bitcoin in portfolios.
- 8:05Of course, this is where this connects to the clip that we
- 8:08just watched. And I will just hit you with a
- 8:11little bit here on Tailoring Bitcoins Fit.
- 8:15So how can investors think about Bitcoin, a Bitcoin allocation?
- 8:19We take a risk budgeting approach, sizing the allocation
- 8:22based on how much it would contribute to total portfolio
- 8:26risk measured by its long run volatility and correlation to
- 8:29other assets. Have you, as you heard in that
- 8:31clip, that is kind of the framing that they're taking
- 8:35right now. They're not going as bullish as
- 8:37maybe Michael Saylor or we would on this show where we think the
- 8:41traditional financial system is the risk.
- 8:43Obviously they're they are conservative asset managers.
- 8:46They can't go that far, but they're like, hey, take a little
- 8:49bit of risk. Your portfolio is risk anyways.
- 8:52Basically, I know we all try to protect our portfolios, but
- 8:56depending on your risk assessment, these are probably
- 9:00the size of allocation you should add to Bitcoin.
- 9:03And here is where they get their map.
- 9:05In a traditional portfolio with a mix of 60% stocks and 40%
- 9:09bonds, those seven stocks if held, talking about the Mac 7 if
- 9:13held at their current weights in the MSCI world, each account for
- 9:174% of the overall portfolio risk on average.
- 9:20That's it's about the same share of a 1 to 2% exposure to
- 9:24Bitcoin, and given bitcoin's correlation to other assets,
- 9:28it's relatively low. It's more volatile, making its
- 9:31effect on total risk contribution similar overall.
- 9:35Now they do have a, you know, nice little chart here.
- 9:37Estimated contributions to risk in the 6040 portfolio, the
- 9:41average MAG 7 stock allocation's about 4% and you can see share
- 9:46of portfolio risk, 1% is about a 2% risk, 2%'s about a 5% risk.
- 9:51And if you go to 4%, that's about a 14% risk.
- 9:54Now we have heard some interesting kind of updates on
- 9:58this, not from Black Rock, but of course from the Goldman Sachs
- 10:02and Morgan Stanley of the world. They're getting a lot more
- 10:04bullish than this. The highest number we saw this
- 10:06like 2 weeks ago was maybe if you are more bullish on Bitcoin,
- 10:10you go about 22% of your portfolio.
- 10:12So this is where I'm starting to think that I think BlackRock,
- 10:20it's starting to feel the heat of competition.
- 10:22I think this is where they are starting to realize that they're
- 10:26no longer the only shark in the water here.
- 10:30They're no longer the only institution that is leading the
- 10:33charge. Yes, they kicked the they
- 10:35started the race, but in the last week, what we've seen from
- 10:39Morgan Stanley and of course Goldman Sachs announcing they're
- 10:41going into Bitcoin, you're starting to see that the Wall
- 10:44Street race to literally get your Bitcoin from you or rather
- 10:47get money from you so that they can acquire more Bitcoin is
- 10:50starting to heat up. And that's where I'm starting to
- 10:52think that the fact that Morgan Stanley launched their ETF, even
- 10:57though they're not really, you know, they're still far behind
- 11:01BlackRock. And I'll go over to Bitcoin.
- 11:03Treasuries real quick, of course.
- 11:06Black Rocks ETF, the ibit Bitcoin Trust has 800,000 plus
- 11:11coins and even though that Morgan Stanley, one of the
- 11:16bigger banks in the world, the first US bank, lower fees,
- 11:19obviously in the last week, they're not going to catch up to
- 11:21that currently. They did jump up if I remember
- 11:24correctly last week on the start day.
- 11:27On the very first day there were 43.
- 11:29Now they are at 36. With a measly at least up till
- 11:34now, we'll we'll get updated numbers next week, but there are
- 11:37some significant inflows into the ETF this week.
- 11:40They only have 1800 coins, right.
- 11:42Let me double yeah, I got to zoom in here 18121 coins.
- 11:47So in comparison to BlackRock, a measly 138 million compared to
- 11:54at least the current numbers will get more numbers next week,
- 11:57$60 billion. So look, there's still a long
- 12:02way for Morgan Stanley to go, But I think what we're starting
- 12:06to see is that there is this competition going on right now.
- 12:13And Morgan Stanley is a huge bank.
- 12:17They have the infrastructure basically already in place to
- 12:21get this to millions of customers.
- 12:23So the inflows that we're seeing into Morgan Stanley currently,
- 12:28they might be making a good run now.
- 12:30Obviously, Blackrock's almost out of, you know, 1,000,000
- 12:34coins. It's.
- 12:36That's a lot. I don't know if Morgan Stanley's
- 12:39going to be able to catch up to them.
- 12:40That's that's a big question. Unless they're what I think it
- 12:44was, 10s of thousands of advisors at Morgan Stanley are
- 12:49all going to basically recommend to the clients.
- 12:52Yeah, you should probably go 20% of your portfolio into Bitcoin.
- 12:57This game can change if BlackRock is basically saying
- 12:59just do 1 or 2%. So significant amount of
- 13:03capital. Just the numbers alone from
- 13:06Morgan Stanley, they hold roughly 7 trillion depending on
- 13:09the numbers. Somewhere they say 7 trillion
- 13:11ish. You know, maybe as low as 5.
- 13:15It's in the trillions. If they're recommending 20%,
- 13:21that's a significant difference than the $14 trillion asset
- 13:25manager. BlackRock only recommending 1 to
- 13:282%. You starting to see the numbers
- 13:31could get a little interesting, but they're not the only ones in
- 13:34the game, right? And this is where you're
- 13:36starting to see that. I think what we're seeing from
- 13:38BlackRock night right now, I think they are feeling a little
- 13:42bit of the pressure for Morgan Stanley.
- 13:43And here's the overall numbers. These are the upper bat, the
- 13:48upper range of asset managers and banks and how much money
- 13:52they actually hold. So you can get an idea of the
- 13:54scale of how much money is out there that these people are now
- 13:59all going to go out and recommend Bitcoin they hold
- 14:03about. Depending on the numbers, you
- 14:07know, the top 500 asset managers like BlackRock, Vanguard,
- 14:10Fidelity, etcetera is about 140 trillion.
- 14:14The top 1000 banks on their balance sheet, all loans,
- 14:17deposit securities held 164 trillion.
- 14:20So obviously all that money in itself isn't going to flow into
- 14:23Bitcoin. All global banking assets,
- 14:26including smaller bank, every deposit taking institution $180
- 14:31trillion. Total global investable wealth,
- 14:35everything manageable and deployable, $345 trillion.
- 14:41The total global financial intermediation, every asset in
- 14:46the entire system, $410 trillion.
- 14:49Now obviously that tsunami of assets out there isn't all going
- 14:54to flow into Bitcoin, but we're starting to see the race of
- 14:59these asset managers and banks starting to recommend from 1 to
- 15:0420% of those assets into Bitcoin if we are starting to see as we
- 15:10have been kind of covering on the show the last.
- 15:12Couple of weeks. This race by Wall Street to
- 15:16outcompete themselves and recommend Bitcoin with their
- 15:20army of financial advisors to their clients.
- 15:24I think we all underestimate how quickly the capital can flow
- 15:28into Bitcoin. Hence why I'm starting to get
- 15:31this sense that I think Larry Fink is is seeing the same
- 15:34thing. Even though Morgan Stanley is 2
- 15:37years late to the ETF race, even though they have about half of
- 15:41the total assets under management that Black Rock has.
- 15:46If they're recommending a higher percentage of their portfolio to
- 15:50their clients, this race could get very interesting.
- 15:56And that's if the Bitcoin price stays stagnant here.
- 16:01If they are buying this much Bitcoin, then at a certain point
- 16:05the price of Bitcoin is going to go up.
- 16:07Now everyone knows the Bitcoin on exchange number.
- 16:10It's been roughly around 2 1/2 depending on the numbers 2,
- 16:15maybe 2.1 on the lower end, 2 1/2 on the higher end.
- 16:19For the last, I don't know about two years minimum, it was as
- 16:23high as three. We're starting to see that
- 16:25slowly drain. Now if you do just the simple
- 16:30mental math here, if we're seeing these huge asset managers
- 16:36and banks recommend up to 20% of their portfolio of their clients
- 16:39portfolios into Bitcoin, that 2 million Bitcoin could very
- 16:44quickly actually leave the exchanges.
- 16:46Now, obviously they usually buy over the counter, which
- 16:50historically doesn't really affect the Bitcoin price.
- 16:53But if the OTC desks completely run out, where do you think
- 16:57they're going to go to get their Bitcoin?
- 16:59Are we going to be seeing the biggest asset managers and banks
- 17:02in the world literally buying Bitcoin on the open market
- 17:05because they have that much interest, that much capital and
- 17:10not enough Bitcoin? What do you think the price of
- 17:14Bitcoin is going to do? It's got to go up.
- 17:17Everyone knows that the only way to get Bitcoin out of your hand
- 17:20is for you to sell it at a price that you like.
- 17:24It has to go up. I'm sure everyone here, most of
- 17:27the Bitcoiners that have ridden out this bear market are looking
- 17:30at the current price is like, there's no way.
- 17:32I have one friend. I don't think he watches the
- 17:34show that much anymore. He kind of crashed out on me.
- 17:36I still consider him a friend though.
- 17:38He would always say my SAT is already priced at at an infinite
- 17:44amount of dollars. Now obviously he's being an
- 17:47extremist, he's kind of a troll, but that's how a lot of bit
- 17:50corners think. A lot of people in the chat,
- 17:53even though $1,000,000 per Bitcoin is crazy right now, a
- 17:57lot of people already price that however much Bitcoin they have
- 18:02at $1,000,000 price points, and that's when they'll start
- 18:05considering getting rid of their Bitcoin.
- 18:09It's really about the scale interest.
- 18:11And this is, again, this isn't even accounting for Stretch and
- 18:15Sailor. This is like his competition.
- 18:17Or if you go to the Simon Dixon route, you could say that Sailor
- 18:21is a part of Wall Street, you know, so maybe they are in
- 18:25cahoots here a little bit, but this is Wall Street legacy Wall
- 18:31Street looking at Bitcoin, seeing they have to compete,
- 18:37seeing that hey, they're not the only ones in the game anymore.
- 18:40Hence why I think sailors really FOMO ING into buying a lot more
- 18:45Bitcoin because he's sensing this exact same thing.
- 18:48Obviously he had competition when Larry Fink came into the
- 18:50game. Now we have basically every
- 18:53asset manager and we have our first US bank getting into
- 18:57Bitcoin, creating Bitcoin products, creating Bitcoin ETF,
- 19:01deploying Bitcoin trading on their, you know, traditional
- 19:06trading platforms. The foundation is totally being
- 19:11built right now. For.
- 19:13An incredible run. If this FOMO really does catch
- 19:16on, as we were talking about yesterday, this idea of what
- 19:19true scarcity actually means catches on.
- 19:23This game could completely blow all of our minds in this next
- 19:27run and I I'm not just saying that it's hoping I'm on the on
- 19:30today's show. It's just the simple supply
- 19:33demand economics. When an infinite amount of cash
- 19:37meets a truly scarce asset, the only thing it can really do is
- 19:43go up. Now I do want to update you a
- 19:47little bit on the Morgan Stanley ETF, because I think this is.
- 19:51Maybe I'm connecting the dots that aren't there possibly.
- 19:55I could be doing that, but this is I think where it starts
- 19:59getting interesting. Of course.
- 20:01The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF has hit nine straight days of
- 20:05inflows, $8.1 million today as of 11:00 PM or sorry, 11:00 AM
- 20:12Eastern Time, and about 16.6 million average daily, only 12
- 20:18days post launch and already ranked third Bitcoin ETF by
- 20:23inflows. You see you.
- 20:25Starting to see what's going on here, hence why I showed you
- 20:29guys the ETF ranks and I know you guys don't like the ETFs.
- 20:33I'm not the biggest fan of the ETFs, but from all of the data
- 20:37I've seen, from all the on chain metrics I've seen and the and
- 20:41other Bitcoin influencers, Bitcoiners that are my friends,
- 20:45most of the Bitcoin that is allocated to these ETFs, they
- 20:51actually hold that Bitcoin. Now, again, BlackRock is the
- 20:55clear. Leader here about what I don't
- 21:00know 5. Times the second leading ETF,
- 21:03which is Fidelity. BlackRock has again over 800,000
- 21:08coins. Fidelity has about 100.
- 21:10And hold on, I'm blind. 88,000 coins So there is a race going
- 21:15on here and like I said Morgan Stanley is down here all the way
- 21:19at 36 on this list with a measly. 1800 coins, but if
- 21:26they're already the third leading ETF by inflows.
- 21:33Things can change very quickly. Now, I know from a bit corners
- 21:37perspective, you're not, we're not the biggest fans of banks.
- 21:41You probably don't like Morgan Stanley.
- 21:43You might be like some of my friends that don't even have a
- 21:45traditional bank. You're just like, I don't care.
- 21:48I tuned out, I'm out of the system.
- 21:50You might not even have a bank. You might just be in.
- 21:52Purely cold storage. You know, on an Amish farm,
- 21:56paying for your bread, your butter, your steaks in Bitcoin,
- 22:00your plumber gets paid in Bitcoin.
- 22:02I don't know how you do it, but I, I'm sure there's some of you
- 22:05out there that are completely 100% living on Bitcoin and the
- 22:12and the banks don't matter to you.
- 22:15But for the average normal person, the banks still have a
- 22:19very strong influence on what they do with their money.
- 22:23It, it literally destroys my brain when I try to think about
- 22:28how people could have lived through the 2008 financial
- 22:30crisis and just like having amnesia, completely forgot about
- 22:36it. They trust the same people, the
- 22:37same institutions. They've built that trust back
- 22:40and they're just back putting. All of their worth, all of their
- 22:44value, all of their. Money in a bank, it's just
- 22:47sitting there just waiting for either a new financial crisis to
- 22:52wipe them out again or for them to be debanked because they say
- 22:56something crazy on the Internet or what have you.
- 22:58Whatever the risk is, as we know in Bitcoin, trusted third
- 23:04parties are a security hole. It's crazy to me that people
- 23:08haven't learned these lessons yet.
- 23:11But humans are very interesting beings and we have very short
- 23:15memories, and we're just doomed to repeat the.
- 23:20Same problems and failures over and over and over again.
- 23:25So for us, hey, we don't like the banks, but a lot of people
- 23:28still do. And now their bank is literally
- 23:31either already rolling out a Bitcoin product it's already
- 23:34live or about to roll out by some point this year or you
- 23:38could only guess that they're in the back end working on doing
- 23:41this. As we saw with Vanguard, anyone
- 23:45that's bought Bitcoin at this point is starting to bend the
- 23:47knee at Bitcoin and realize we need some Bitcoin product.
- 23:50Our not only do we need those. To compete, but our clients want
- 23:54them. Because if you're going to an
- 23:57asset manager and you've been with him for 17 years or at the
- 24:01very. Least 15-16 years, whatever, 10
- 24:07years, we'll go 10 years. Nice round Number and you're.
- 24:10Looking at the games that Bitcoin has provided in the last
- 24:1410 years, you got to. Ask your manager.
- 24:18Hey man, why didn't you recommend Bitcoin a decade ago?
- 24:22I wouldn't have to work my job. You see, they're starting to get
- 24:28the pressure points here. And this is where I think this
- 24:33Jay. Man, I'm blanking on this.
- 24:36Is it Jay? Hold on.
- 24:37I remembered his name. I said it in the beginning, but
- 24:39I'm blanking on Jay Jacobs. I was going to say Jay Adams,
- 24:42but that's. Lloyd's of Dogtown, I'm doxing
- 24:47myself here. Jay Jacobs here is on Fox News.
- 24:54We're seeing a lot of interest from literally every bank now,
- 24:57so they're competing for the attention.
- 25:00So that their product can get in the limelight, so that they can
- 25:03maintain their lead. Obviously, BlackRock is still
- 25:06ahead of the game for for. The foreseeable future, but if
- 25:10Morgan Stanley's infrastructure can overtake BlackRock as the
- 25:15leading inflow by a marginal amount again, they seem to be
- 25:20recommending a lot more than just one to 2%.
- 25:22But I think we're going to see BlackRock continue to go out and
- 25:26be like, actually, you know, we were being very conservative.
- 25:29And I remember the one of the oldest reports that we saw from
- 25:32BlackRock, it wasn't Larry Fink, it wasn't Jay Jacobs.
- 25:36It was like a research report paper.
- 25:38And they did come out and correct it.
- 25:40But one of the earliest reports was like, you need to invest 80%
- 25:43of your portfolio. And then I think they got pushed
- 25:45back and everyone was like, yeah, there's no way I'm putting
- 25:4880% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin. So they realized they had to be
- 25:53a little more conservative. 1 to 4% has been the average kind of
- 25:59conservative bet into Bitcoin. At least that's what we heard
- 26:02all of 2025 and now. Start of 2026, we're starting to
- 26:07see that those numbers are. Increasing a little.
- 26:08Bit people are people are worried about.
- 26:10What stocks and equities are doing?
- 26:12Stocks and sorry, stocks and bonds are doing.
- 26:16They have been essentially moving in lock step.
- 26:19Stocks drop, bonds are dropping or bond yields are dropping,
- 26:23etcetera, etcetera. There is a very close
- 26:26correlation between traditional financial assets currently in
- 26:29the market and I think we all know why.
- 26:32Obviously Trump posts are really affecting the market.
- 26:36Everyone's worried about what's going on in the Middle East.
- 26:38We're all wondering if there's going to be a prolonged war in
- 26:41the Middle East. As of you know, we're all
- 26:43wondering, are the tariffs on? Are they off?
- 26:46Is the straight open? Is it closed?
- 26:49What is actually going on? In the morning you hear it's
- 26:53open, then in the evening. Once the markets close,
- 26:57straights close and then there's deals, there's no deals.
- 27:01So you, you, you starting to see the picture.
- 27:03Everything is kind of moving in lockstep, but what have we?
- 27:06Seen since the start of the war, Bitcoin is slowly grinding up.
- 27:12It seems to have decoupled now. It's not a very obvious
- 27:15decoupling yet, but it seems to be moving in its own.
- 27:19Terms right now and what did Jay Jacobs just say?
- 27:25Bitcoin has its own rules. You see, I'm not saying
- 27:29BlackRock or I'm also, I'm also not saying that people at
- 27:33BlackRock aren't Bitcoiners, but I'm not saying that Larry Fink
- 27:36is a hardcore Bitcoiner here, but Jay Jacobs.
- 27:39Might be he might be a true believer.
- 27:41There's probably people at BlackRock that are true
- 27:43believers. They're seeing what we're seeing
- 27:44and they're like, oh man. Maybe these crazy bitcoiners
- 27:49have a point. Maybe we didn't give them enough
- 27:53credit. When we made fun of them for 15
- 27:56years, when we fought them, when our boss was telling everyone
- 27:59stay away from this thing because it's an index of money
- 28:01launderers. It's only for criminals.
- 28:03And now we are going to have to backtrack and pretend like none
- 28:07of that ever happened and go out there and.
- 28:09She'll she'll she'll for Bitcoin because if we don't do it,
- 28:14Morgan Stanley will do it. And if Morgan Stanley isn't the
- 28:18leader, then it might be Goldman Sachs.
- 28:21And again, like I said, that doesn't account for the fact
- 28:23that Michael Saylor is now the leader in this market.
- 28:26And they're like, damn, I thought we had the clout.
- 28:28I thought we. Had the juice to come in and
- 28:30overtake Sailor, and sailor just continues to smash by when the
- 28:36world competes. For you as a bitcoiner.
- 28:42Your life does improve now. We have yet to see number go up
- 28:46in the way that we all expected, but we are starting to see a
- 28:50slow grind up. We are starting to see.
- 28:53Some healthy price action here, now I know.
- 28:56A lot of people are like, how can you say that Bitcoin is
- 28:59resilient? It's still in the 70 KS.
- 29:03It's it's grind, it's bullish right now.
- 29:05Yeah, it's it's, you can say it's been sideways, but it's
- 29:09it's a bullish. Grind up right now I'm not of
- 29:13the opinion. That we are going to see an
- 29:16Omega candle anytime soon and and by that I mean within the
- 29:20next month or two, I think what we're going to see is Bitcoin
- 29:23try to break. Out if we do get a breakout
- 29:26above 77 into the 80 KS, obviously extremely bullish.
- 29:31If we fail the next breakout, then that's just more time to
- 29:34accumulate and you could argue you could say.
- 29:39That the institutions are also trying to, yeah.
- 29:46What am I talking about? I can't laugh, OK?
- 29:49The institutions are trying to acquire a lot of Bitcoin.
- 29:52OK, Hey, I guess let me see. Let me see.
- 30:01I'm getting trolled right now. Maybe, OK, maybe.
- 30:03Or maybe I'm seeing things, Bros.
- 30:06Maybe I'm seeing things. What is this?
- 30:10Alexander 1990? I'm sorry, dude.
- 30:13That's my laugh. I I can't fix the laugh.
- 30:16You know you're going to. It's an acquired.
- 30:19Taste, they're going to have to love it.
- 30:21OK, moving forward, I guess since hey, I guess I rambled a
- 30:24little too much about BlackRock and what I see with the
- 30:27institutions in the ETFs and I know you guys don't like it.
- 30:32I know we're not the biggest fan of quote paper Bitcoin.
- 30:34I know we're not the biggest fans of institutions holding a
- 30:38huge amount of Bitcoin. But there is an interesting
- 30:42trend going on. And I saw a check matey clip and
- 30:46it was in this in with this idea that he said.
- 30:49Something on the lines. Of, and I think it was with
- 30:51Natalie Brunell that he said this.
- 30:53He's like like from all the data I can parse through.
- 30:58There's probably only about 100,000.
- 31:00People that hold Bitcoin in self custody and then that might feel
- 31:03low. It also might be correct because
- 31:09of so many people using different addresses because we
- 31:12can't link a single address to a new hodler.
- 31:15It could be where we are. Obviously we'll never know
- 31:18because not every address is linked to an ID, which is part
- 31:22of the benefit of Bitcoin, but what he did?
- 31:25Say that was interesting, is that ever since the retail ETFs
- 31:28have come in, it seems like? It's incentivized a lot of
- 31:33people to get into Bitcoin because maybe they're just
- 31:35scared of self custody and maybe we'll talk about this in the
- 31:38culture. Yeah, maybe that's what.
- 31:41I'll do on the culture today. Let's talk about a little self
- 31:44custody. I'll hate a poll and ask you
- 31:46guys not if you do self custody because I realized that might be
- 31:50a question that doxes you. But do you think that self
- 31:53custody is too hard for most people because it seems like
- 31:57there is a mass amount of interest into.
- 31:59These ETFs because they don't have to self custody it and that
- 32:04does. Bring on its own problems, but
- 32:05it also brings on a lot of attention into Bitcoin, a lot of
- 32:09capital in the Bitcoin. So we are in a very interesting
- 32:12time. And as I said yesterday, this
- 32:15idea of, I think the real question is can Bitcoin survive
- 32:19Wall Street? I think that's what we're all
- 32:20going to be living through for the next year or so.
- 32:22Maybe 5, who knows, But I think that's the the real question
- 32:28that we're currently finding ourselves in.
- 32:30All right. Anyways, going further a little
- 32:33bit. OK, I sorry, I thought, I
- 32:37thought my. My Twitter was dumb.
- 32:40Again, on this theme of institutional adoption, I don't
- 32:43know if you guys saw, but Charles Schwab is now dropping
- 32:47Bitcoin education. It is a little stale, but we got
- 32:50to watch it here because this is part of the theme.
- 32:53The suits are coming. It's like we're like Paul Revere
- 32:55here. The suits are coming.
- 32:56The suits are coming. Actually, no, the suits are
- 32:58here. They are on our doorstep.
- 33:00And then we got a interesting update this morning.
- 33:05The new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh, is being.
- 33:08Confirmed today in Congress. And Senator Lummis asked him
- 33:12directly what he thought about Bitcoin and crypto and digital
- 33:15assets. So the new Fed chair got a good
- 33:18sound bite on Bitcoin and what he thinks.
- 33:22That's going to be the breakdown on today's show.
- 33:23I will be right back after. This commercial break.
- 33:28Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Well Infinite.
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- 35:40Hold on. OK.
- 35:43The current Bitcoin price is 75,340.
- 35:49Man, it's feeling pretty good. Feeling pretty good with this
- 35:52price. Tag I'm I don't want to chart
- 35:53boy on you guys. You know can't do that every
- 35:56day. We'll we save that for for
- 35:58special time. Maybe Friday we'll do a little
- 36:00chart boying, but it is holding up in this 70. 4 to 76 range.
- 36:07So it almost seems like the 60 K bottom, if I can call it a
- 36:13bottom 270, you know, 73 ish range has been clamped down a
- 36:19little bit and we're kind of ranging around. 75K right now,
- 36:24who knows if this will hold up. If it does, very bullish in my
- 36:28opinion. But anyways, we are.
- 36:29Currently down from all time high about 40%.
- 36:32So 40% discount on all time high.
- 36:34If you like Bitcoin at 126 K, you're going to love it at 75.
- 36:37K, it's a discount. Who doesn't like discount?
- 36:39It's on sale. It's on a fire sale right now.
- 36:42Market cap. We have secured the 1 1/2
- 36:45trillion dollar market cap again, boys and girls.
- 36:48We are. We're going to, we're going to
- 36:50reclaim 2 soon, all right? Clock it anyways, the block
- 36:56guide is. 946,000. And 81, I repeat 946081.
- 37:03So I saw this this morning and honestly, let me let me just
- 37:11play it. I don't.
- 37:12Want to? I don't want to roast it too
- 37:13hard. I want to put bad thoughts in
- 37:15your eye, in your eyes, but in your eye, in your mind.
- 37:18Sorry. Charles Schwab releases an
- 37:19educated educational video on Bitcoin and risk management.
- 37:22Now let's compare this to what BlackRock is basically saying,
- 37:27or what they said. Over a year ago.
- 37:30Here we go. Because they're so volatile,
- 37:34even small amounts could translate to much larger levels
- 37:38of risk. Let's look at a quick
- 37:40hypothetical example using Bitcoin.
- 37:42A theoretical investor with a moderate risk appetite might
- 37:47split a traditional portfolio 6040 sixty percent stocks and
- 37:5240% bonds. Stocks consist of almost 100% of
- 37:57the risk in that portfolio because they're far more
- 37:59volatile. If that investor decides to add
- 38:02an even more unruly asset like Bitcoin, they might only want
- 38:06Bitcoin to make up 10% of the portfolio's risk.
- 38:10According to the Schwab Center for Financial Research, that
- 38:13investor might want to invest no more than 2.7% of their total
- 38:17portfolio in Bitcoin. An aggressive investor say they
- 38:22typically put 96% of their portfolio in stocks might be
- 38:26comfortable with 20% of the portfolio's risk in Bitcoin.
- 38:29That would translate to an allocation of just under 7%.
- 38:34Other cryptocurrencies like ether are more volatile than
- 38:37Bitcoin, so you may want to consider investing even less.
- 38:41It's a bit non traditional to think about it from a risk
- 38:44perspective rather than an overall portfolio percent
- 38:48perspective. Bitcoin's volatility means it
- 38:51has an outsized risk. It's an exponential
- 38:55relationship, so small increases in Bitcoin holdings can lead to
- 39:00larger increases in overall risk exposure.
- 39:03Cryptocurrencies can be complicated and confusing for
- 39:06beginners. Start by learning the basics,
- 39:09understanding the risks and your own risk tolerance.
- 39:13Remember, if buying cryptocurrencies themselves is
- 39:17too big of a jump at first, you could consider starting with
- 39:20exchange traded products that include cryptocurrencies,
- 39:23although those have their own risks as well.
- 39:26Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
- 39:29Whether you're looking to trade crypto actively or take it on as
- 39:32a long term investment, coming from a risk management
- 39:35perspective can be helpful. Patience, discipline, and
- 39:38consistent learning can help you introduce crypto into your
- 39:41portfolio. Oh, man, I gotta love it.
- 39:49Oh, man. All right, guys, I.
- 39:53Forgot I forgot. I can't laugh.
- 39:55Hold on, I forgot. I can't have fun here.
- 39:58The fun police are here. I think we might have a job for
- 40:03a little bit here. That's all I'm going to say.
- 40:06Anyways, obviously they're saying basically the same thing
- 40:09as BlackRock said over a year ago, but you're seeing
- 40:14production starting to get a little better.
- 40:16As you can tell, they are talking to a very conservative
- 40:20audience, people that still think Bitcoin is risky, though
- 40:23I, I found it interesting from my perspective, like maybe it
- 40:28was just because I was young and naive and I had no money.
- 40:30There's, there's like a, there's a different perspective here.
- 40:33Obviously, I forget who it is. Is it Warren Buffett quote that
- 40:37he says, if you want to build wealth, you put all your eggs in
- 40:41one basket. If you're trying to protect your
- 40:43wealth, then you diversify, as you can tell just from the
- 40:46simple. Framing of this video.
- 40:48They are talking to people that are trying to protect their
- 40:50wealth, hence why they're saying.
- 40:52You know your risk appetite, your risk aversion, How much are
- 40:55you willing to risk? They even say the.
- 40:57Classic Bitcoin meme which we. Probably stole from Trad 5, but
- 41:00don't invest more money than you're willing to lose you.
- 41:04You can just see the different framing here, because what do we
- 41:06do here on the show? It's like, look, we're all
- 41:08broke. We ain't got no money.
- 41:10Like you want to you, you want to win, you want to risk it for
- 41:13the biscuit. We, we really don't think in
- 41:15terms of necessarily risk loss. Like we don't really think of
- 41:20how much we can lose because most of us.
- 41:22Start out with 0. What do we always do here?
- 41:25We're like yo. Just think about how much you
- 41:27can gain and that's. Probably why we get called.
- 41:31Snake oil salesman and scammers. I saw someone say the classic
- 41:35opti troll where we were click bait scamming you into profits
- 41:40or whatever that Nico gets mad at me.
- 41:41Oh wait sorry I forgot. I can't say that but you can see
- 41:44the different framing here. So now we're seeing $12 trillion
- 41:47Charles Schwab out here doing Bitcoin educational videos and
- 41:51they're talking to their clients at at the very.
- 41:53Least they know who they're talking to.
- 41:55They know the psyche of their clients and what they consider
- 42:00the biggest threat about Bitcoin is the volatility.
- 42:03It is the risk. It is the maybe this is going to
- 42:07crash and I'm going to panic and have to sell at the bottom with
- 42:09money that I need in a year or two or my retirement money.
- 42:13That's a totally different conversation than us younger
- 42:16people that are like, look, I am never going to escape.
- 42:21The Matrix I'm never going to escape generational poverty
- 42:24unless I do something sort of extreme.
- 42:26At least quote extreme to the average person.
- 42:29And I always eat when I have this conversation with my
- 42:31friends. And maybe it's just 'cause I'm
- 42:34younger and I'm perpetually, perpetually online and I just
- 42:38have a fundamentally different world view than someone that
- 42:42built their wealth while I was still in diapers.
- 42:47You know, they built their wealth before I even became an
- 42:49adult. We always have this view.
- 42:53At least this is a very common view on Twitter amongst my
- 42:56friends amongst. People that I follow on Twitter
- 42:59is if you don't go against the grain, if you follow what has
- 43:03worked in the past, it doesn't work in today's.
- 43:06World. And in some respects, what
- 43:10you're seeing in that clip is them basically admitting that.
- 43:15The 6040 portfolio is is the go to default portfolio or rather
- 43:21it was the go to default portfolio for the longest time.
- 43:27I don't know, I think. I heard of AI, think I heard an
- 43:29admission of guilt there, an admission that, hey, this no
- 43:33longer works anymore. But they're framing in this
- 43:36idea. Hey, maybe you want to, maybe
- 43:37you want to, you know, diversify even more into this new thing.
- 43:43But I really wanted to hear the what can you gain if you just go
- 43:49all in on Bitcoin? That's the real question.
- 43:53That's the real. Savage move here, but again, I'm
- 43:57I'm a Bitcoin YouTube. I'm I'm biased in Bitcoin.
- 44:02At least on on one respect, we hopefully the very least I'm a
- 44:06little more entertaining than that.
- 44:07Guy, I hope? I don't know, maybe.
- 44:13Maybe you don't like my laugh, but I think I'm a little more
- 44:17entertaining than that chud. No, I'm not making fun of I.
- 44:21I should have said that. But hey, you can see there's a
- 44:25trend going here. It's no longer just BlackRock in
- 44:29the game we have. Huge other, huge estimate.
- 44:34Basically BlackRock competition now entering the game, Yeah.
- 44:38They're a little late, and maybe BlackRock feels very comfortable
- 44:42in their lead here, but I think this game can change, especially
- 44:47if the price of Bitcoin somehow doesn't maintain going up like
- 44:51we covered. Yesterday if this basis trade is
- 44:53still able to quote suppress the Bitcoin price or if the whales
- 44:57are able to quote suppress the price because they can sell a
- 45:00lot of. Bitcoin, get more Fiat, buy
- 45:02that, allow. Just rinse and repeat until
- 45:04there's enough people to actually break that mechanism.
- 45:07Maybe they will be able to acquire a lot of Bitcoin if the
- 45:10price starts ripping then I think Black Rock's going to be
- 45:13very comfortably in the lead here, but you can see they're
- 45:19all starting to think in the same way.
- 45:23You need to get some Bitcoin in your portfolio though.
- 45:25They are, they are being a little nice, but it's like maybe
- 45:27you're thinking about adding Bitcoin into your portfolio and
- 45:30you shouldn't research. You should get your 40 hours a
- 45:33week of podcast. You should understand the.
- 45:38Risk tolerance that you can basically deal with because it
- 45:42is very volatile. But the 6040 portfolio?
- 45:46Doesn't work. We actually covered that idea
- 45:48over a year ago. That we saw the institutions
- 45:51admit the 6040 portfolio no longer works and just adding a
- 45:55little bit of Bitcoin into that portfolio will change the game
- 45:59of your portfolio. It's actually James Lavish that
- 46:02did a good report on it and I think his numbers were basically
- 46:06by just adding 1% of your portfolio, your 6040 portfolio
- 46:10into Bitcoin, you're going to get outside's returns that are
- 46:14going to blow everything the the rest of your 99% of your
- 46:17portfolio out of the water. Now you know a little bit of
- 46:21good thing. It's cool.
- 46:23But a lot of a good thing if you ain't ready for it could be bad,
- 46:27but it could also be very good. We're risking it for the biscuit
- 46:32here, guys. We're never going to escape
- 46:34generational poverty unless we don't do anything on the extreme
- 46:38side, at least from what our. I don't know.
- 46:43Generation above us probably believes.
- 46:46But you can see there's a theme. It's a theme building in 2026,
- 46:50which is what I've said I think 2026 is.
- 46:53I think we're going to see the floodgates here.
- 46:56And I know I'm not, at least in hindsight, not the happiest that
- 47:00the institutions are here, but at the very least, they're here.
- 47:05Bitcoin is for enemies. Can you guys just buy a bunch of
- 47:09Bitcoin, Pump our bags? We feel a little better about
- 47:10ourselves here. Don't just take all the.
- 47:14Bitcoin and then short it and we're still broke and we can
- 47:18only. Buy little pennies, but it
- 47:21doesn't matter, just keep buying Bitcoin.
- 47:23You're seeing the game. They want to acquire Bitcoin, so
- 47:26just acquire Bitcoin and actually.
- 47:29He did make the same point that I was just relaying about what
- 47:31Checkmatey was saying. He said.
- 47:34Maybe you don't want to buy spot Bitcoin.
- 47:37Maybe you just want to buy the ETF.
- 47:39There's cons and there's benefits of this and I and I did
- 47:43see some of you guys over the ad break basically talking about
- 47:46self custody. So I might I might have to get
- 47:49you guys to repost those because I'll probably lose them in my
- 47:53streaming software. But you know, sometimes we've
- 47:57got to face the hard truth and even though we are self custody
- 48:00Maxis, it's second nature to us. It's not to a lot of people.
- 48:05They are very comfortable with other people holding their money
- 48:09and maybe they just don't want to learn a new skill.
- 48:12Maybe they don't trust themselves.
- 48:14Anyways, hold on. Jeez, I I'm going to have to,
- 48:20I'm going to let the break. I'm I'm about to sneeze on you
- 48:22guys again. We got the.
- 48:25The new Fed chair confirmation. Hearing this morning in Congress
- 48:29and we got a great sound bite coming out of it.
- 48:33Interesting difference from current.
- 48:36Jerome Powell, let's watch that after the break.
- 48:42I want to give a shout out to our partner, Leaden.
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- 50:23code simply. Man, I know what's going on, but
- 50:34dying over? Here.
- 50:37It's been a rough morning for me, guys.
- 50:40I'm hurting I'm I'm optimistic today, but I'm hurting I I had a
- 50:44rough morning anyways and someone in the chat.
- 50:48Said he didn't get. Confirmed yet?
- 50:49Yeah, I know. I said his confirmation hearing
- 50:52started today. Maybe, maybe I need to slow down
- 50:55a little bit. But again, this morning, this
- 50:59was at 10 AM, it was tweeted, We saw the Senate confirmation
- 51:05hearing for the Fed chair, the not Fed chair nominee, Kevin
- 51:09Wash, who Trump picked to replace Jerome Powell.
- 51:14And you guys know, the whole key fob of Trump versus Powell.
- 51:19Trump doesn't like Powell. He's been calling him too late
- 51:22Powell, that he's too late on cutting interest rates,
- 51:26basically putting the blame on Powell for a lot of the economic
- 51:29woes that Trump has been facing. And so he picked Kevin Walsh.
- 51:33Now, we talked about when this nominee was selected by Trump,
- 51:39how he seems to be a pro Bitcoin Fed chair.
- 51:43So now not only has Bitcoiners taking over the federal
- 51:47administration under Trump or quote Bitcoiners, but it seems
- 51:51like now, and we have them at the SEC, the CFTC, they're
- 51:57infiltrating Wall Street. We now seem to have another pro
- 52:04quote. I'm going to put air quotes on
- 52:06this one Pro Bitcoin. Fed chair which is very
- 52:09interesting as I as. I said in the past, hey, we
- 52:12haven't ended the Fed yet and who knows how long that's going
- 52:15to take, but it seems like we have someone that is at the very
- 52:22least understanding Bitcoin. So Senator Lumas asked him a
- 52:26very direct question. And he has a very.
- 52:29Interesting response. Let's play that.
- 52:32Believe that digital assets should be incorporated into our
- 52:36financial industry so Americans have new investment
- 52:40opportunities and consumer protections.
- 52:43Senator, digital assets are already part of the fabric of
- 52:46our financial services industry in the United States.
- 52:49Yes, OK, short but sweet. It seems like, hey, he's at
- 52:56least a realist here. Here's Senator Lummis tweeting
- 52:59about it. Digital assets are being woven
- 53:01into the fabric of America's financial system.
- 53:03I look forward to a Federal Reserve chair who not only
- 53:06understands that, but embraces that.
- 53:10Now, before I go further, I would be remiss to acknowledge
- 53:16the fact that we have heard. Something like this before,
- 53:19particularly with Gary Gensler when he went into the SEC.
- 53:23He taught a course at MIT and then once he got in that
- 53:28position it seemed like his tune changed a little bit.
- 53:31Though this time around I think it might be a tad bit different
- 53:35considering that Trump is so pro or pro Bitcoin.
- 53:41From digital assets. But he has in the past had very
- 53:45interesting clips about his understanding and.
- 53:49You know it, It may not be. Like the a hardcore Bitcoin
- 53:52maxi, cypherpunk understanding. But he seems to understand
- 53:54what's going on. He seems to understand that,
- 53:56yeah, Bitcoin's not going away. Seems to understand that.
- 54:01Where we currently are, you can't ignore reality.
- 54:05Bitcoin is already. A part of the traditional
- 54:08financial system it it already is the fabric of our framework
- 54:11for how finances work, for how money flows around the world.
- 54:16And the fact that he's acknowledging that I think is
- 54:18pretty, pretty big just in and of its own.
- 54:22Now, obviously, a lot of people have been a little unsure of
- 54:29whether one Fred. Yeah, whether the new Fed chair
- 54:33Wars nominee is actually going to get confirmed or not.
- 54:38There might be some pushback. Who knows when we'll be able to
- 54:42fully know that he's confirmed. That's the first point.
- 54:48The second point is a lot of people are unsure whether he's
- 54:51going to be hawkish or dovish, whether he's going to cut rates
- 54:53or not cut. Rates And remember, he is a
- 54:57Stanley Druckenmiller acolyte. You know, he, he was one of his
- 55:01mentees here. And what Stanley said in regards
- 55:05to Wash is that he will. Read the Room.
- 55:08And. He won't necessarily just cut
- 55:11rates or raise rates just because he wants to, just
- 55:15because. He has a certain ideology or he
- 55:18just doesn't like Trump or what have you.
- 55:21It seems like Trump and him are actually good friends.
- 55:24As of now, where we stand, it does seem like we might not get
- 55:28too many rate cuts on. The table this year, I think the
- 55:33last numbers I saw was maybe 2, and they're not going to be
- 55:35until the end of the year. Again, you know, Jerome Powell
- 55:40is not going to be in there for that much longer.
- 55:42I doubt we're going to get one from Jerome Powell.
- 55:45Of course, there is a bit of a contention, at least in Bitcoin,
- 55:50whether interest rate cuts even affect us.
- 55:54They they haven't really been as bullish as we all thought it
- 55:56was. Obviously, we know what the
- 55:59Trump administration or as has been called the Mar a Lago
- 56:03Accords wants to happen, which is print more money and lower
- 56:09rates, expand the money supply and lower rates.
- 56:12They want, they want the liquidity back on the table and
- 56:15that's how they're going to make it happen.
- 56:17Here is Lawrence. Leopard's take on this actually
- 56:20let me go to this one. We have this quote, another
- 56:24quote coming out of this. Hearing and it goes.
- 56:26Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is
- 56:29a residual of the Fed's past mistakes. the Fed missed its
- 56:33mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy
- 56:35errors in 2021 and 2022. Or, you know, after the 2020
- 56:41print a thon quote. Once you let inflation take hold
- 56:45in the economy, it's more expensive and harder to bring it
- 56:47down. Captain Obvious here.
- 56:51No, you know, once you expand the money supply, you, you
- 56:54basically don't bring down price.
- 56:55I mean you can in theory you can.
- 56:58So I get and. It is harder to bring it down.
- 57:00In theory, you can, I guess technically bring down
- 57:04inflation, but they never do, which is why it's always
- 57:08interesting when we get the CPI numbers because everyone always
- 57:11thinks like, oh, everything's getting cheaper and you're like,
- 57:13no, just the money supply is expanding less.
- 57:17So it's not getting as expensive, but it's still
- 57:21getting more expensive. Anyways, quote the fatal policy
- 57:25error is still a legacy that we're dealing with today.
- 57:28Inflation is less problematic. He really does sound like a a
- 57:33Trump guy just based on some of these these sound bites best.
- 57:38Economy ever golden golden age inflation is.
- 57:41Zero. All right, look.
- 57:45Barry, what's it? Europa has always been at peace.
- 57:50Or whatever. What's the Orwell quote?
- 57:53You know what I'm talking about. Anyways, here's Lawrence apart.
- 57:55Wash throws Powell under the bus.
- 57:57Easy, Kevin. It is not as easy as it looks or
- 58:00you make it sound. Keeping a.
- 58:02Ponzi going is tough. You will learn, so doesn't.
- 58:06Necessarily need to be a nefarious Marsh is going to get
- 58:09the call by the. You know, big guys in in dark
- 58:13suits and tell them how the world really works.
- 58:17I think it's a little more of what Lawrence Lapard said.
- 58:20It's extremely hard to keep the Ponzi going.
- 58:23They have to continue to expand to add more liquidity into the
- 58:28system. That is an inevitability.
- 58:34We have. We have.
- 58:35Memes for this Nothing stops this train again, I don't know
- 58:39if I brought the actual report on the show, but I believe it
- 58:43was the IMF last week. I think it was the IMF.
- 58:47I might be blanking on what the source was but you guys could
- 58:49look this up. They basically.
- 58:52Moved. Their debt to GDP ratio, or
- 58:57rather the the date of when that debt to GDP ratio will be passed
- 59:03by more debt than how productive we really are from 2030 to 2029,
- 59:08now 2030. Seems like a long way away.
- 59:12I always forget that, you know? I always forget how old I am
- 59:15too. But we are in 2026, so that
- 59:19gives you a. At least if these numbers are
- 59:23you know, correct. If we are going to continue to
- 59:25slowly expand based on what we already know, which is probably
- 59:30not a very solid given here 2029, we're going to have more
- 59:35national debt than the productivity of this country.
- 59:41Nothing stops this train. The big print is coming.
- 59:44At some point, if we do start to see some catastrophe in the
- 59:50global economy, we all know there's only one way that they
- 59:53fix it. Well, maybe two ways, but it's
- 59:55still basically one way. You know, the banks are going to
- 59:59get bailed out. The Wall Street institutions,
- 1:00:01the hedge funds are going to get bailed out.
- 1:00:04We clocked the bill. A bunch of money gets flooded
- 1:00:07into the system. All of our savings get diluted
- 1:00:11unless you protect yourself in assets if you owed assets.
- 1:00:17Those assets are going to go up in price.
- 1:00:20You're going to be good now. Obviously this is a Bitcoin
- 1:00:23show. We think the most accessible
- 1:00:25asset for most people. Well, I think of it.
- 1:00:27It's the most the perfect money, the most accessible money in the
- 1:00:31world, the one that doesn't have a ruler, the one that isn't
- 1:00:34controlled by any nation, a sovereign neutral money, a
- 1:00:38political money. Hard capped at 21 million.
- 1:00:42Everything divided by 21 million.
- 1:00:44All the memes. You've heard them before if
- 1:00:45you've been a bitcoiner for longer than a day.
- 1:00:48It is Bitcoin, everyone needs some Bitcoin now.
- 1:00:52It is going to be interesting if he does get confirmed and how he
- 1:00:57views. Bitcoin in the context of the
- 1:00:59Fed, when all of us bitcoiners have usually chanted at least
- 1:01:03more than one. Time and the Fed.
- 1:01:06So it, it, it is a I'm, I'm going to have to think through
- 1:01:10that one because it's, you're kind of holding 2 opposing
- 1:01:12views. It's like, all right, Well, you
- 1:01:15know, we did hear some rumors that Trump wanted to end the Fed
- 1:01:18or, you know, I know a lot of Bitcoiners want to end the.
- 1:01:20Fed, but I guess before we get to that point is a bitcoiner or
- 1:01:28again air quotes bitcoiner leading the Fed just baby steps
- 1:01:33towards that? I highly doubt it, but.
- 1:01:38It's going to be interesting. It's going to be very
- 1:01:41interesting to see if this does. If he does get confirmed, it's
- 1:01:45going to be, it's going to be an interesting world that we're
- 1:01:47living in anyways, you know, nice little sound bite.
- 1:01:51I'm sure we will get some more news out of this if we do get
- 1:01:54some other cool sound bites and stuff.
- 1:01:56I will play it for you guys tomorrow.
- 1:01:58On that note, maybe let's, I do have an interesting news story.
- 1:02:06Yeah, I'll, I'll, we'll tease it.
- 1:02:07We'll tease it, and then I'll see what you guys say in the
- 1:02:09chat. Did you guys see that?
- 1:02:13Reuters report or Reuters article about the Strait of.
- 1:02:16Hormuz and Bitcoin payments. Not the first one.
- 1:02:20The second one about false messages about literal scammers.
- 1:02:27I have an interesting theory about that.
- 1:02:29Or do we talk self custody? Or did you guys already flush
- 1:02:32out in the chat? I'm going to look over the over
- 1:02:35the commercial break and I'll pick and choose depending on on
- 1:02:38what you guys want me to talk about.
- 1:02:41I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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- 1:04:19OK, someone made a pretty good point.
- 1:04:21They said talk about the damn news.
- 1:04:24This is a news show. So OK, we're going to talk about
- 1:04:26the news. We're going to talk about the
- 1:04:27news, OK? You're making, you're making
- 1:04:29some points. You're making some points.
- 1:04:31OK, So this was on Reuters guys. And actually let me I I have the
- 1:04:40I, I I don't think. I don't think I can say it
- 1:04:42anyways. I don't have a Reuters account,
- 1:04:45so let me pull up the Reuters. Is it this one?
- 1:04:55Hold on. It's lagging on me.
- 1:04:56It's lagging on me. But there's a article on
- 1:04:59Reuters, not. Reuters I don't say my TS hard,
- 1:05:05I say I'm like AD OK, I I got AI got a valley grill accent, but.
- 1:05:09On Reuters this morning there was an article titled Scam
- 1:05:13messages offering ships safe transit through Hormuz security
- 1:05:18firms. WARN and here is the screenshot
- 1:05:23here which basically gives you an idea.
- 1:05:30Fraudulent messages promising safe passage through the Strait
- 1:05:33of Hormuz in exchange for crypto currencies have been sent to
- 1:05:37some shipping companies whose vessels are stranded West of the
- 1:05:40waterway. Greek maritime risk management
- 1:05:42for Maris has a warm and apparently and I and I did read
- 1:05:47this again. You you guys can see I, I don't
- 1:05:51have a Reuters, but I did. We were reading this.
- 1:05:58Apparently one of the Oh dude, no, OK, apparently one of the
- 1:06:06ships that. If you guys saw.
- 1:06:10Over the weekend and I and I look, I called it, I called it
- 1:06:13again. And I, and I'm not here to pat
- 1:06:15my, my, you know, my own bag here.
- 1:06:17But if you were watching the Friday show, Nico was like,
- 1:06:21everyone was wrong. The war is over.
- 1:06:23And I'm like, bro, it's still too early to tell.
- 1:06:27We got the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open
- 1:06:30indefinitely. Ceasefire, another deal's done.
- 1:06:34And then? Literally the markets close.
- 1:06:37Actually it was like an hour after the show we saw there was
- 1:06:40still bombing in Lebanon and Iran basically said look, the
- 1:06:45deal's. Off the Hormuz is closed and so
- 1:06:52there has been and actually I think it was skip on down the
- 1:06:55road. I think.
- 1:06:57I think that's the boy in the chat.
- 1:06:58Or is it skip on onward skip? Onward.
- 1:07:01I, I forget your name bro, but I, I just, I think if you skip
- 1:07:05he's like, have we? Got any confirmation that any
- 1:07:08fees have actually been paid in Bitcoin or even in stable coins
- 1:07:13through the Strait of Hormuz? And I've, I've basically been
- 1:07:18saying like, I don't think we really have because it hasn't
- 1:07:23really even been open. Like, no ships have actually
- 1:07:26really been flowing at least, and not if they aren't like
- 1:07:32Iranian or Chinese ships, and I don't think that they're
- 1:07:35probably. Going to be paying.
- 1:07:36Fees for that, I think it I you know, I don't have inside
- 1:07:39detail, but from what I would guess they were only going to
- 1:07:44charge those fees to non ally ships and the whole idea is,
- 1:07:50hey, if you want to get through this.
- 1:07:53You got to pay in Bitcoin. Or stablecoin backed by yuans or
- 1:07:57stablecoin in general. And I don't think we've actually
- 1:08:01seen any ships go through the Strait of Hormuz pay in Bitcoin
- 1:08:07or whatever crypto, however you want to frame it.
- 1:08:11But I was always thinking of the just the idea of the, as we like
- 1:08:15to say, the Overton window expanding.
- 1:08:18It's a crazy news story in and of itself.
- 1:08:23Now we're seeing like we are going full circle.
- 1:08:26In Bitcoin in our history here guys that Reuters and I think we
- 1:08:31even talked about this that in Reuters.
- 1:08:34Because that came from the Financial Times and.
- 1:08:38They weren't, really. That favorable.
- 1:08:39They were just like, this is an interesting development.
- 1:08:43And then they started talking and I showed you the Yahoo
- 1:08:45article and they were talking about how this makes Ofac's job
- 1:08:49harder because they're using cryptocurrency to skirt
- 1:08:53sanctions. Now, what was it?
- 1:08:57A week later, we're getting this article from from Reuters, which
- 1:09:01is quoting a, you know. Security firm saying that yeah,
- 1:09:06well, it seems like the only money that's actually been sent
- 1:09:10in Bitcoin is from ships that got scammed by fraudulent
- 1:09:15messages to get Bitcoin. And I'm like, oh man, we are, we
- 1:09:22can, we're never, we're never going to get away from the.
- 1:09:24Idea that we're all criminals and scammers, guys especially.
- 1:09:28When this is happening anyways, like I said, apparently one of
- 1:09:32the ships that went through and got missiled.
- 1:09:38And got blasted through the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly,
- 1:09:41apparently, according to this Reuters article.
- 1:09:44Was one of the. Ships that got scammed.
- 1:09:48It's like, bro, we're not, we are not going to, we're never
- 1:09:53going to be the allegations anyways.
- 1:09:55Maris said that it believed that at least one of the.
- 1:09:58Vessels which tried to exit the straight on Saturday and was hit
- 1:10:02by gunfire was a victim of the fraud.
- 1:10:07Guys brutal out here anyways quote after providing the
- 1:10:12documents and assessing your eligibility by the Iranian
- 1:10:15security services, we will be able this is the message.
- 1:10:17We will be able to determine the fee to be paid in cryptocurrency
- 1:10:21in Bitcoin or USDT. Only then will your vessel be
- 1:10:24able to. Transmit the straight unimpeded
- 1:10:27by the pre agreed time and that's the message that Merisk
- 1:10:30is basically saying if you get this message then you're.
- 1:10:34Probably going to get scammed guys these are crazy.
- 1:10:48We're never going to be the allegations here, but yeah,
- 1:10:52update. So for everyone that wanted an
- 1:10:54update about what happened with the Bitcoin story on the Strait
- 1:10:58of Hormuz, we got it from Reuters this morning.
- 1:11:00And apparently people are scamming these ships and at
- 1:11:04least one of them got hit by gunfire, thinking they, I don't
- 1:11:10mean to laugh, thinking that they were doing everything
- 1:11:14right. And the US?
- 1:11:19Hit them starting to make a a lot of the K fob the
- 1:11:26distractions going on. I don't know.
- 1:11:29I'm going. I'm going a little.
- 1:11:31Things are very interesting. Tell us about the camel behind
- 1:11:35it. The Silk Road art.
- 1:11:36This from our boy Madex. Bro, you don't know the Silk
- 1:11:39Road. Come on, Dan.
- 1:11:40Come on, bro. Come on.
- 1:11:48Nico can barely form sentences. He's not here, though.
- 1:11:51I can barely speak. I don't know how.
- 1:11:52This is my job, but vessel Fudd. Yo.
- 1:11:57Let's not make. Let's.
- 1:11:59Let's not make down under Blues That's ABS story.
- 1:12:05It could be, but it besides the. Point we're never going to beat
- 1:12:10these allegations that scammers and money launderers use
- 1:12:14Bitcoin. That's kind of what I'm trying
- 1:12:16to get across. This is going to be something
- 1:12:21that we're going to have to deal with for a while.
- 1:12:22Like we haven't even gotten past.
- 1:12:28I'm blanking on his name. Sam Bakeman, fraud freed.
- 1:12:32We're barely getting out of that, and now we're entering
- 1:12:34into a whole new cycle. And And down on your Blues I do.
- 1:12:37Actually agree with you in. In many respects, because we are
- 1:12:40seeing again, I talked about this a while ago like.
- 1:12:43If you're reading what's coming out of the media, there is this
- 1:12:48trend. Of quote you know, ex CIA
- 1:12:53contractors, security firm experts, anonymous sources.
- 1:13:00That plant stories in these publications and as you can
- 1:13:05tell. A lot of people use and, and I
- 1:13:09do it here on the show as well, use a lot of the more
- 1:13:13traditional news sources, real sources.
- 1:13:15But when you look at them and you kind of understand what's
- 1:13:19going on, like I do think you might be right.
- 1:13:21Like, these are probably potentially a planned story, but
- 1:13:27this is just starting to, I think, breed a whole new wave of
- 1:13:34FUD around Bitcoin. And now we're starting to see it
- 1:13:38play out. And we were talking about this
- 1:13:40when that news story broke. Damn, we're all scamming.
- 1:13:48Hey, all right. At this point, at this point, if
- 1:13:51you haven't. They couldn't yo familia they
- 1:13:56sent rap Bitcoin read theorem that's.
- 1:13:59That's actually funny. I think everyone needs to go
- 1:14:04read Everyone's a scammer. By Michael Goldstein AKA
- 1:14:09Bitstein The media I totally agree with.
- 1:14:13The media is always pushing parts or half truths of the
- 1:14:16story or purposely leaving out information.
- 1:14:19I totally agree. 100% agree. I'm just saying.
- 1:14:23We're never going to beat the allegations.
- 1:14:25Not for a while. It is interesting when you see
- 1:14:27all of the biggest institutions get into Bitcoin.
- 1:14:30Yes, there is a kind of shifting of the tide around Bitcoin, but
- 1:14:37the. Corporate press, which if you do
- 1:14:41listen to a little bit of the Tom Luongo, Simon Dixon stuff.
- 1:14:49You have a biased against a lot of the things that you might
- 1:14:52believe in, which is freedom, courts, Bitcoin, you follow the
- 1:14:59money you. Start to understand that.
- 1:15:03Some of these publications that claim to be journalists are
- 1:15:06anything but journalists. They are just propagandists.
- 1:15:13Opti for it to go to 1,000,000 it was inevitable that Wall
- 1:15:15Street would have to buy in. I've known this for 13.
- 1:15:17Yeah 100% I totally agree. I've been saying that for a
- 1:15:20minute. I I try to say.
- 1:15:24It in a way, and maybe I could do a better job of it of saying
- 1:15:27it knowing that the chat doesn't either understand that or they
- 1:15:33don't like. It but I agree with you.
- 1:15:36If Bitcoin is going to be the next World reserve currency.
- 1:15:43You you think that it's only going to get.
- 1:15:45There because people are holding it in bitcoins like no
- 1:15:48institutions have to use Bitcoin I I don't know what world people
- 1:15:51think that we're going to they think we're going to a truly
- 1:15:55barter system with no corporations no institutions, no
- 1:15:58hedge funds, no banks it's like we're all just going to go back
- 1:16:02to some kind of tribal like barbarian society where like.
- 1:16:10If we only interact with each other as peer-to-peer
- 1:16:14individuals, we're never going back to that world.
- 1:16:18There will be institutions, there will be corporations,
- 1:16:21there will be banks. If Bitcoin is going to become
- 1:16:25the world reserve currency, if Bitcoin is going to become the
- 1:16:28world's money, then the current world that we live in will have
- 1:16:33to adapt and use Bitcoin. So I know the Wall Street
- 1:16:37boogeyman idea is very popular. We've all seen.
- 1:16:41Wolf of Wall. Street We've all seen the Big
- 1:16:44Short. We are probably all aware of
- 1:16:48what happened in 2008. We've seen the Enron fraud.
- 1:16:52We've seen all kinds of ridiculous fraud, ridiculous
- 1:16:58literal criminal acts come from some of the very people that we
- 1:17:02entrusted withholding our money. But I don't think that we're
- 1:17:07going to go to a world that Wall Street doesn't embrace Bitcoin.
- 1:17:10That's how Bitcoin is going to get to those levels.
- 1:17:16Just. On the math terms, they have all
- 1:17:18of the money. They have what what's the total
- 1:17:22global assets? It's like 1000 trillion dollars.
- 1:17:26Yes, a lot of individuals do hold that, but the majority of
- 1:17:29that money? It's coming from these
- 1:17:33institutions, nation states, hedge funds, and then you add
- 1:17:38the money printer on top of it. Just get your piece of the pie.
- 1:17:42Just continue to stack Bitcoin. Continue to take Bitcoin into
- 1:17:47self custody. You guys are funny.
- 1:17:54Let's see I the rally will be the last.
- 1:17:57One that mainstream will be able to get into to get rich.
- 1:18:00You have 17 years to front run Wall Street.
- 1:18:02Yes, we have front ran Wall Street.
- 1:18:09If we have the truth, the world would be much better.
- 1:18:11Yes. Well, you know, we're doing our
- 1:18:14best. And.
- 1:18:15And on that note, down under Blues.
- 1:18:17Here, let me let me pull this. Wait, was it down under Blues?
- 1:18:22Yeah. And now I don't.
- 1:18:24I don't claim to. Quote have the truth Big T here
- 1:18:31I am parsing through the information just as you are.
- 1:18:35I'm reading the chat with you guys.
- 1:18:36I'm seeing the information, you know, some, some of you guys are
- 1:18:39a lot nicer when you, when you, when you're telling me your
- 1:18:42opinions and your facts and you know, obviously I, I'm like, all
- 1:18:46right, he's being nice. I'm going to listen to him.
- 1:18:48But even if you're yelling at me, I'm, I'm listening and I go
- 1:18:51back and I, you know, I sit down and I contemplate my world view
- 1:18:56and I contemplate what I'm saying on the show and I go
- 1:18:59search for the data because I really do believe in the idea of
- 1:19:03I want to know the truth. I want.
- 1:19:06To be better aligned with reality.
- 1:19:08Not only because it's my job here to try to give you guys the
- 1:19:11best information I can. But the better I can understand
- 1:19:15every angle of what's going on, the better I will be at my job
- 1:19:19and the better information you will get, you will get and the
- 1:19:22better value I can give you. So I'm I'm not here, you know,
- 1:19:27burying my head, ignoring facts. I mean, I might ignore you if
- 1:19:32you're being an asshole, but like that's I think that's only
- 1:19:35human here. But yes, I I agree.
- 1:19:38I agree with you down under Blues.
- 1:19:40If we did all have the truth, then why would we even need to
- 1:19:43do this? But we got to do it anyways, all
- 1:19:46right? Anyways, I'm rambling.
- 1:19:48I'm I'm. I'm I'm actually.
- 1:19:49Having a good time with the chat.
- 1:19:51Let me see him. It's still.
- 1:19:52Are we still? Yeah, we're still gone.
- 1:19:54I have a good time with the. Let's let's go see what's up
- 1:19:56with Jim Johnson. On Rumble, don't worry Opti, God
- 1:20:00will protect. You I, I'm, I'm not, I'm not
- 1:20:02saying all that. I am not saying all that Opti,
- 1:20:06you are half right. We will have crypto only, but it
- 1:20:09won't be Bitcoin. Cool story bro Cool.
- 1:20:14Story. You know those honestly.
- 1:20:19Jim, JJJJ and Rumble, you know I really love you, but am I the
- 1:20:31only one seeing the the contradiction in those two
- 1:20:34statements? Don't worry, government will
- 1:20:38protect you. But also bitcoins not going to
- 1:20:41last because the government's going to say you can't use it.
- 1:20:45Who's the one trusting the government more, me or you bro?
- 1:20:50Just because I want capital to flow into Bitcoin and.
- 1:20:52People to use. Bitcoin, I don't think we're
- 1:20:55saying the same thing anyways. Guys, I am rambling.
- 1:21:00Opti looks like he's about to solve some.
- 1:21:02I got you. Oh man, I'm getting cooked all
- 1:21:06right. Anyways, you all know the deal.
- 1:21:10This is your boy. Opti and I will see you tomorrow
- 1:21:20for another episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
- 1:21:22Have a good. Rest of your day guys.
- 1:21:27Get some sun, eat some good food, call your loved ones, and
- 1:21:30of course, stack some Bitcoin. This is the way.
- 1:21:34I'm forgetting what I say. I'd like a list of six.
- 1:21:36I'm going to have to write them down for you guys, but.
- 1:21:39Peace out, I'll see you tomorrow.
- 1:21:40Have a good rest of your day. Until then, maybe go watch some
- 1:21:44of our other content creators. We drop a lot of.
- 1:21:46Content on our channel of simply Bitcoin.
- 1:21:51I forget who's going Live Today, but it's either Ruston, Dante
- 1:21:56Hurley. Shout out to Hurley.
- 1:21:58The newest guy on the block? Let's go.
- 1:22:01Oh, wow, sorry about that guys. Sophie Oceans, I'll see you guys
- 1:22:08tomorrow. Peace out guys.
- 1:22:11Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:22:15Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:22:18independence.