Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Trump Promises Capital Gains Tax Cuts 💰 Crypto Catalyst or Midterm Bait? 👀

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Trump Promises Capital Gains Tax Cuts 💰 Crypto Catalyst or Midterm Bait? 👀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Wall Street tax cuts are underway, and there is a
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: lot to this. Let's break it down for you guys.
• 0:05
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• 0:08
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• 0:11
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• 0:14
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Download the Uphold app for more and get started. And
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: let's just get started with this one right here, which
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: of course is the CPI. This is landed exactly as expected.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Headlined right now is three point four year over year
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: versus three point four estimated. What does that mean for
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: fed Raikcutz though no, just yet, even though it seems
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: a little softer if you look at some of the
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: guys out there that are topping on this is of
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: course Tom Crown, He's hitting on it right here, CPI.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: No change cooling narrative might be beginning right now, so
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  Speaker 1: get ready if you guys think we're going to get
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: a FED pause, which is what it looks like, let
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  Speaker 1: me know in the comments down below. Or do you
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  Speaker 1: think we're going to get a cut just put a cut?
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  Speaker 1: Or if a hike, what do you guys think right now?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: It's going all over the place, because remember just a
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  Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, we were in for a FED
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  Speaker 1: rate hike. You guys remember that, Yeah, I remember that,
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  Speaker 1: And here we are now at a pause, possibly even
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: something different. Market expectations right now for the September rate
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: hike fell to thirty four percent, this of course coming
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: in after the CPI. This marks the lowest chance of
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a September rate hikes since July seventeenth. And this goes
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: back to the pre day of what Warsh was being
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  Speaker 1: pretty much crucified for of even talking about rate hikes.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And here he is right now. The decision continues to climb.
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  Speaker 1: Here on a pause, no change right there, spiking to
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  Speaker 1: seventy sixty seven percent right now as we report today.
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  Speaker 1: So this continues on and it doesn't look like it's
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: slowing either, because this is the December ninth. Also dropping
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: in terms of a FED rate hike does not look
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  Speaker 1: like we would even get a FED rate hike all
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  Speaker 1: year long. So the real question is is what does
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the economy do or deliver to the chair of the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: FED to say maybe a rate cut is in order.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Don't know. A lot is pointing at I think the
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: market right now, and I think in general where the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: macro will play out into this, and a lot of
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  Speaker 1: that is still coming from the Middle East, so be
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: watching that. But I also think you're going to be
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: looking at the S and P five hundred playing into
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  Speaker 1: this as well. The other thing that could play into
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: this is what's going on right here, and that is
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Trump's capital gains tax discussion is now including capital gains
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  Speaker 1: for inflation before taxes are calculated. So think about this
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  Speaker 1: for a second. For example, if you purchase a stock
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  Speaker 1: for one hunter k, you know, and sold it five
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  Speaker 1: years later at two hundred k. So they're claiming that
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  Speaker 1: you would under this new system that you would only
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  Speaker 1: pay tax on basically eighty thousand. So instead of the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars gain, you would get that twenty
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars inflation spike, so eighty thousand would be your
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  Speaker 1: real gang. This would be a pretty big deal. And
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  Speaker 1: if it does happen, it could be significant. The problem.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I'll get to that in a second, but I want
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  Speaker 1: to play a clip for you where Hassett is trying
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  Speaker 1: to explain a little bit more about what's going to
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: happen before midterms. Take a look.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: He says, as we're going into the midterms that he
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: doesn't want to just sort of say how great it
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  Speaker 2: is what we've done in the past. He wants to
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  Speaker 2: hit people with the things that are promises that we're
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  Speaker 2: going to do if the Republicans have power in the future,
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  Speaker 2: and so you could expect a lot more policy between
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: now in the midterm. As we've been talking to the president.
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure that that's why he was talking to you.
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  Speaker 2: Larry has great ideas about capital gain. I understand that
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  Speaker 2: you don't run on you don't run in the rear
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  Speaker 2: view mirror and run on what you're going to do.
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  Speaker 2: That's one hundred percent Now you're cooking.
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  Speaker 3: That's the Kevin Hassett that I know and love.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So this guy can spend for sure. Hassett
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  Speaker 1: is a great spinner of fodder out there, because talking
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: about what you're going to do, I think we already
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: saw that in the last election, talking about what you
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: were going to do but ended up doing something else. Well,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: here's Hassett talking about what could be coming in for
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  Speaker 1: home sales taxes and how this plays into capital gains.
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  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: These are not necessarily rich people.
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  Speaker 2: These are empty nesters who own.
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  Speaker 1: A house for thirty or forty.
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  Speaker 5: But they shouldn't have to pay the Biden inflation tax.
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  Speaker 2: Kevin, You're right, like the twenty percent of the capital
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  Speaker 2: gain is in Biden's inflation tax because you know, they
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  Speaker 2: basically helicopter dropped money into the US even though the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: COVID crisis was over, and so there's making up to
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: do with that kind of problem. Sure that it's something
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  Speaker 2: that the President would agree for it. He's literally for you,
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  Speaker 2: literally forever forever.
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  Speaker 1: All right. So okay, first of all, I'm interested in
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  Speaker 1: this idea of giving a tax cut based on inflation.
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  Speaker 1: That seems like a narrative that could be done. Somebody
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  Speaker 1: I don't know who came up with this. This was
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  Speaker 1: Hassett or maybe bastin't, but his officials are floating this
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  Speaker 1: to cut capital gains tax on home sales. So this
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  Speaker 1: means a big deal. Now the problem with all of this, guys,
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  Speaker 1: is they can talk about it all they want, but
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  Speaker 1: Congress has got to be able to push this through.
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  Speaker 1: And based on this, which has been the legislative issue
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  Speaker 1: that we're facing in DC right now, which where they're
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  Speaker 1: getting nothing passed. Really, so, how would this even be
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  Speaker 1: possible of going through? So could it just be you know,
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  Speaker 1: campaign Jews to try to get you know, the Republicans
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  Speaker 1: into hopefully the Senate, because right now that's the point
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: that is on Maybe it's a deathbed right here at
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of a chance right now that Democrats
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: could take the Senate, and these three seats right here
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  Speaker 1: pretty much demolish the Republican's chance. And remember right now
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  Speaker 1: it's an eighty eight percent chance to the Democrats take
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the House. So this could end up being and this
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: might be why we are seeing so much activity out
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  Speaker 1: of Trump's administration to try to defend against this, because
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  Speaker 1: it could be one of those things where we do
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  Speaker 1: get a completely split administration in Congress. Balshunas came out
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  Speaker 1: with this interesting the SEC poise to roll out a
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  Speaker 1: pair of major initiatives in the coming days that could
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  Speaker 1: further turbertise the US crypto industry, and this is in
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  Speaker 1: reference to Digital Asset Bill, And what they're talking about
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  Speaker 1: is major initiatives that could be launched just in the
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  Speaker 1: next few days if they actually do it. What does
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  Speaker 1: that tell you? Does this tell you that the SEC
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: and the CFTC are kind of in a position now
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  Speaker 1: where they think they're going to have to initiate a
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  Speaker 1: lot of this rulemaking, and it appears that that may
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: actually happen. I was concerned that the SEC would probably wait,
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  Speaker 1: but this tells me some other things if they're going
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  Speaker 1: ahead and proceeding right now, so watch very closely. Other
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: things that you got to watch out for is what's
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: happening with the CFTC. They have now invoked an emergency
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: authority to keep CALSHI operating in New York and this
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: of course comes after New York Attorney General sought to
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: halt all of their contracts nationwide, and of course this
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  Speaker 1: is a big deal. Now they're also demanding more than
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  Speaker 1: thirty six billion in damages, So this is a big
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  Speaker 1: move here that I think will continue to see more.
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  Speaker 1: I don't even call this lawfair, but I think we
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  Speaker 1: are getting into regulatory bureaucratic lawfair that is going to
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  Speaker 1: play into crypto in the coming months. Now, another thing
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  Speaker 1: that you have to watch in the markets is what
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  Speaker 1: are the big dogs doing.
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  Speaker 3: Well.
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  Speaker 1: You've got Berkshire Hathaway now turning bullish again, who bought
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  Speaker 1: nineteen pointy eight billion in stocks just in Q two
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  Speaker 1: and ended fourteen quarters of net sales of stock. So
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  Speaker 1: you look at that, guys, do you think that maybe
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  Speaker 1: Warren has come off the sidelines for a reason. Is
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  Speaker 1: he looking at something in the tech side, Is he
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  Speaker 1: looking something purely as the alphabet play or could this
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  Speaker 1: start to filter into other areas of the stock market.
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  Speaker 1: Pay close attention to that guy. You got Michael Burry
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: going the other way. Michael Burry is saying Buffett has
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  Speaker 1: lost his edge, greg Abel is a buffoon and says
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  Speaker 1: the company is deploying cash way too aggressively and this
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  Speaker 1: is going to hurt. Now, You've got to remember Burry
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  Speaker 1: has not necessarily always been right. He's been wrong on
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  Speaker 1: some times as well. So maybe this is a little
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  Speaker 1: bit of a theater out there. We'll see how it
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  Speaker 1: plays out. I want to go over to a clip
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  Speaker 1: real quick. This is talking about bitcoin and strategy and
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  Speaker 1: what their plans are for the rest of the year.
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  Speaker 5: Take a look, we now have eight hundred and forty
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  Speaker 5: thousand bitcoin. Since the beginning of the year, we've bought
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  Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy five thousand bitcoin and we've sold
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  Speaker 5: seven thousand, so about twenty.
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  Speaker 1: Five x more.
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  Speaker 5: And in the last three months we've gone from being
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  Speaker 5: the number two institutional holder of bitcoin in the world
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  Speaker 5: to the number one, right, so I think we've bought
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  Speaker 5: a lot throughout the course of the year, have increased
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  Speaker 5: our holding is twenty five percent. I've said we're now
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  Speaker 5: the JP Morgan of the digital economy and won't get
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  Speaker 5: back to buying more bitcoin throughout the course of the year.
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  Speaker 5: What we've been doing over the course of the last
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: few months is adding to our US dollar reserve. Right,
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  Speaker 5: so we've added one hundred and seventy five thousand bitcoin
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  Speaker 5: this year, sold seven thousand, and we've actually increased our
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  Speaker 5: US dollar reserve four point seventy five billion from about
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  Speaker 5: eight hundred million. So that's been our focus over the
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  Speaker 5: last few weeks, and then we'll get back to buying
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: bitcoin at some point in time. And it's not price related.
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  Speaker 5: It's about whether we can do it to creatively to
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  Speaker 5: our common shareholders.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So one point is you know in that
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  Speaker 1: interview they were talking distressed asset. I don't necessarily think
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  Speaker 1: that is the case right now if you really look
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  Speaker 1: at the numbers behind this. But what you do not
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  Speaker 1: see is the narrative, and I think that is the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: more important play here on strategy. And this gets into
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: other things because remember bitcoin right now, especially if you
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: bet on what's going to happen with a lot of
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: our politicians and maybe crypto in general. This starts to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: get into something to watch very closely. Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: What is going to make bitcoin go up thirty percent
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  Speaker 3: every year for thirty years.
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: Well let's start with first, what do people think the
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: stock market's gonna do.
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  Speaker 1: Historically people would say it's seventy eight nights.
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  Speaker 3: Well, think about for a second. What's gonna make people
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  Speaker 3: buy this endlessly up thirty percent for thirty years.
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  Speaker 4: The only thing that matters in finance is that the
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  Speaker 4: people in Washington, DC, they are absolutely ridiculous. They will
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: not stop printing money. If they keep printing money, Bitcoin
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: is going to keep going up over the long run,
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: so will gold, so will real estate stole stocks. If
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: they print money asset prices will go to the moon,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: and bitcoin happens to be the single most sensitive asset
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: in the world to global liquidity. And so all you're
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: betting on is the stupidity of the politicians to keep
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: printing money. And I don't know about you, but that
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: is a bet I will take all day long. Is
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: they are never, ever, ever going to stop printing money.
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  Speaker 3: I don't know of any investment which is even likely
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  Speaker 3: or possibly gonna go up thirty percent every year for
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: thirty years.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know anything, all right. Well, And the challenge
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I think that right now the bitcoin community is facing
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: is what we have in terms of a narrative coming
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: in from Sailor and their moves which could get corrected. Sure,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I do agree with pomp in the sense that DC
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: is going to continue to be silly, we are going
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: to continue to see printing. But the question is is
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: are other assets going to take the limelight? If you
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: look at this right here, eth right now is maybe
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: becoming a little bit more of the favorite child coming
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: in from Wall Street. And I think this is the
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: thing that you have to consider. Where does trad FI go.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: If trad fi, if we do get windows of regulation.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: If you get windows of adoption, especially as we start
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to see token is securities, where does tradify go. If
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: it does go the ether route, that becomes a different
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: narrative for bitcoin overall. And this is a good point
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: right here. You've got Fidelity now seven trillion dollar asset manager,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: which is going to enable staking. This is the first
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: time that people will be able to get yields on
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: ethereum in an etf right there on a t additional
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: regulated holder out there, and that of course being Fidelity.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So granted, sure you can't move it out. I get that, guys,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: you'll argue with me there, But the point is it's
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: a major shift in how investors are going to look
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: at these assets. When you start earning revenue on these assets,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: it changes the mindset and that to me is a
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: big part of where this narrative may go. So stay tuned.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to have a lot more happening
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: this week, So hopefully you guys, we'll be here. We'll
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: see then. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
• 12:36
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• 12:39
  Speaker 1: private member group. The link is in the description