Transcript

Conduct Matters · Crosstabs

0:16
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm recording your voice, which is good.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: So the new microphones, we like it.
0:22
SPEAKER_00: Look at us upgrading.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: Another $80 we're spending on the podcast.
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SPEAKER_01: Listen, I want to make it very clear.
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SPEAKER_01: We have no sponsors.
0:31
SPEAKER_01: We don't plan to get any sponsors.
0:33
SPEAKER_01: And people need to understand that this is only a money-losing operation.
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SPEAKER_00: I had some...
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Lobbyists asked me yesterday,
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go,
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why do you guys only do audio only and you don't do video?
0:45
SPEAKER_00: And I'm like, one, it costs money.
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SPEAKER_00: And two, Reagan is a snob.
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SPEAKER_00: So he only wants to do audio only because he's a purist.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: That's 100% right.
0:54
SPEAKER_01: I don't want to.
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SPEAKER_01: We did video with my podcast with Ben.
0:59
And what we did was we were just on Zoom the whole time and it
1:02
looked horrible.
1:03
SPEAKER_01: But that is a venue that I understand that people do.
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And I know that there have been people out there that have
1:10
Oregon politics podcasts like OPB.
1:12
They obviously have studios that look really nice and they know
1:14
how to do cameras.
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I've heard there's a podcast out there that some Republicans do
1:18
where they spent
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SPEAKER_01: $30,000 on their studio.
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SPEAKER_01: I don't have that kind of money to burn.
1:22
SPEAKER_01: I don't know that you do.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: No, not on that.
1:24
SPEAKER_01: So we stick with audio only.
1:26
SPEAKER_01: I'm a podcast purist, man.
1:27
SPEAKER_01: That's a talk show is what that is.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's true.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: Which is fun.
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SPEAKER_00: And then they use it,
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SPEAKER_00: like I was saying too,
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SPEAKER_00: I said they use that,
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they like to use all the clips and they're trying to make a
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bunch of social media
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SPEAKER_00: bait out of it and stuff like that.
1:39
SPEAKER_00: We don't really care.
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SPEAKER_01: I don't have staff.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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SPEAKER_00: If we had a producer, maybe.
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But we can't get anybody to do that for free either,
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so that wouldn't work either.
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If you're a producer that wants to work for free and also lose
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money,
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let us know.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
1:53
SPEAKER_00: Uh, wait, the phone's ringing.
1:54
SPEAKER_00: Oh no, that's sorry.
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SPEAKER_00: It's not.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: All right.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: So lots has happened since we last convened.
2:01
I mean,
2:02
a short Friday,
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we did the podcast with representative Willie Chotson on
2:07
Friday,
2:07
right?
2:08
SPEAKER_00: We released it Friday.
2:09
SPEAKER_00: We recorded Thursday, something like that.
2:11
I think I released it Friday because we recorded it Thursday
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and then I didn't get
2:14
SPEAKER_01: it out that night because I get home and I'm just dead.
2:18
SPEAKER_00: I mean, yeah, oh, I'm with you.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: Like last night we got home.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: Like we finally left the Capitol like around 7.
2:25
SPEAKER_00: We left VBI's office and then got home, ate a little bit.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: I talked on the phone to a couple of candidates.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: And then it was like 8.15 and Vicky was still talking to Rep McIntyre.
2:37
there and uh i was and then i just kind of french egged my way
2:41
up the stairs and
2:42
asleep i went i don't even know what time vicky came to bed i
2:45
was out reagan up at
2:47
4 30 this morning though with ready to go ball of fire i mean
2:51
when you go to bed at
2:51
SPEAKER_00: 8 30 you know 4 30 is not too bad
2:54
SPEAKER_01: I had to run Bible study last night, so I left work.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: I went straight to Bible study and then went from Bible study to home.
3:01
SPEAKER_01: I ate dinner.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: I helped put the kids to bed.
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SPEAKER_01: I did two chores, and then I went to bed.
3:08
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to be honest.
3:10
SPEAKER_01: I didn't get up early enough today.
3:11
SPEAKER_01: I probably should have gotten up earlier, but I didn't.
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It was like I toss and turn in the morning and then my head
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starts going on things
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SPEAKER_00: that need to get done.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: And so they had ways and means meeting this morning.
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And so I was thinking about some of the bills in there and all
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that sort of stuff
3:24
SPEAKER_00: to do for Senator Anderson.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: But anyways,
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SPEAKER_00: my point was,
3:27
SPEAKER_01: yes,
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SPEAKER_00: a lot has really kind of happened from,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_00: Friday to Wednesday.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
3:32
SPEAKER_00: In short sessions and the end of session, a lot of things happen.
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SPEAKER_00: I mean, some guy resigned from his job.
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SPEAKER_00: Did the House Republicans walk out and then they didn't walk out?
3:42
SPEAKER_00: I wasn't really sure what happened with that.
3:46
SPEAKER_00: The Senate was kind of... We eventually passed 1599 Tuesday, right?
3:51
SPEAKER_00: Yesterday?
3:51
SPEAKER_00: No, we passed it Monday.
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SPEAKER_00: So finally, the Senate passes it out Monday.
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SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, finally...
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SPEAKER_00: It goes.
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SPEAKER_00: We all knew it would.
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But,
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you know,
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two weeks still less than two weeks until the end of session.
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They pass out the gas tax bill that moves the bill to May race
4:11
versus the general.
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SPEAKER_00: So and then while all that was kind of going on.
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SPEAKER_00: There was a lot of hoopla happening over in the house, Reagan.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: So let me see if I can walk you through this.
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SPEAKER_01: There was, Floor has been starting earlier.
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SPEAKER_01: So normal time for Floor to start is like 11.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: And they've been scheduling to start at 10.
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SPEAKER_01: We haven't been starting at 10.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: We start at like noon.
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SPEAKER_01: And part of that is because Democrats and Republicans,
4:37
SPEAKER_01: I think,
4:37
SPEAKER_01: are probably going back and forth and they're having conversations,
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SPEAKER_01: all kinds of conversations.
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I would guess they're talking about a lot of bills and they're
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talking about a lot
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SPEAKER_01: of logistics and they're talking about a lot of feelings.
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And but one of the feelings that was ongoing that the
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Republicans felt pretty
4:51
strongly about is that Representative Tran and him had a
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situation in committee
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SPEAKER_01: last week.
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SPEAKER_01: And it was deadline day.
5:01
SPEAKER_01: They were trying to move the gun bill out.
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SPEAKER_01: It's House Bill 4145.
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SPEAKER_01: The gun bill, which is my understanding, it implements Measure 114.
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SPEAKER_01: So right now,
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SPEAKER_01: if you try to get a gun permit under Measure 114,
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SPEAKER_01: if they were to turn that on,
5:14
SPEAKER_01: it wouldn't work.
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SPEAKER_01: Like the logistics of the law legitimately don't work.
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SPEAKER_01: And he is trying to make the law work.
5:21
SPEAKER_01: Now, I still don't like the law.
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SPEAKER_01: I think it needs to be repealed and all that stuff.
5:23
SPEAKER_01: And I still think it's a bad bill.
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But if he passes a bill that still doesn't work,
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no one's going to be able to get a gun.
5:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
5:31
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's probably a bad outcome.
5:34
SPEAKER_01: And so he tries to move the dash three.
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SPEAKER_01: Representative Tran votes no.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: And there's only one more Democrat on the committee.
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And I don't think that Chair Krupp thought he needed to whip
5:45
his votes on a gun
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SPEAKER_01: bill with Democrats.
5:47
SPEAKER_01: Right.
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Because that's not typically an issue unless it's like Betsy
5:49
Johnson or somebody,
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right?
5:51
SPEAKER_01: So he takes her out of committee.
5:54
SPEAKER_01: Something happens in the hallway.
5:56
SPEAKER_01: Now, this is the part that I've been reading on Facebook.
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SPEAKER_01: There might be video.
6:00
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it has any audio, though, which makes it challenging.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: There's talk about there might be witnesses of this,
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SPEAKER_01: but nobody's come forward and submitted a complaint.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: A plainclothes officer intervened.
6:12
SPEAKER_01: Yes, something like that.
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SPEAKER_00: Apparently, I have seen a grainy video.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: It was almost like the Zapruder film.
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SPEAKER_00: Back and to the left.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: Back and to the left.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: But it was a very long hallway shot.
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SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
6:24
SPEAKER_00: So you don't really get... You can't really tell... You can't re-clips.
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SPEAKER_00: You can't tell what the hell was happening, right?
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SPEAKER_00: So...
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And a lot of folks I've talked to say their experience with
6:36
Cruff is not that he
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SPEAKER_01: yells at or demeans people,
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SPEAKER_01: just that he's very business-oriented.
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And again,
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I don't know what was said,
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but probably this amendment is moving.
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SPEAKER_01: You're voting for it.
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SPEAKER_01: You have bills up after this.
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SPEAKER_01: I can obviously kill those if I need to.
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SPEAKER_01: Our entire caucus is going to go,
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SPEAKER_01: what the heck,
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SPEAKER_01: if this thing dies in committee or if I have to dump it into rules.
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SPEAKER_01: You need to vote yes.
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SPEAKER_01: They go back to committee.
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SPEAKER_01: They were in the middle of the vote.
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SPEAKER_01: He calls the vote again.
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SPEAKER_01: She says, didn't we already vote on this?
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SPEAKER_01: Which I think is kind of a hilarious thing to say.
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SPEAKER_01: He said, I asked for the vote to be called again.
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SPEAKER_01: She does eventually vote yes.
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SPEAKER_01: They move the bill out.
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SPEAKER_01: So...
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SPEAKER_01: She gives a quote to OPB that the Representative Tran said,
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SPEAKER_01: it created a hostile work environment.
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SPEAKER_01: So a lot of the Republicans are saying,
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SPEAKER_01: shouldn't Krupp be investigated for creating a hostile work environment?
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SPEAKER_01: And I have a hard time thinking that that is an unreasonable position.
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SPEAKER_01: But obviously Democrats would like to minimize.
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SPEAKER_01: I have no idea what's going on behind closed doors between them,
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SPEAKER_01: between the members involved,
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SPEAKER_01: between leadership,
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SPEAKER_01: members not involved.
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SPEAKER_01: I was very surprised that the speaker said when she was asked about it,
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SPEAKER_01: I haven't talked to either of them.
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SPEAKER_01: Things get tense.
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SPEAKER_01: If I were staff to the speaker,
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SPEAKER_01: if I were comms people,
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SPEAKER_01: I would recommend you don't give that quote.
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SPEAKER_01: I would recommend you no comment or don't respond.
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SPEAKER_01: And I would recommend you go talk to your members.
7:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
7:57
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what maybe say just in, you know, this is internal.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: We're working on it.
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SPEAKER_00: I'll give you a response later.
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SPEAKER_01: Like, yeah, that would be something.
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Sometimes they're just they don't know what to say when they
8:08
get caught off guard.
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SPEAKER_00: It's really like even national Democrats.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: Right.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: And I heard that on Ruthless the other day.
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SPEAKER_00: They were saying,
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SPEAKER_00: like,
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SPEAKER_00: if there's not if it's not on a bumper sticker or it's not a slogan,
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SPEAKER_00: they don't know what to say.
8:18
SPEAKER_00: Right.
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Like that's why it was so refreshing to have like Willie
8:21
Chotson on when we had him on.
8:22
SPEAKER_00: Like he didn't mind engaging in policy discussion.
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And Democrats need to do more of that and not and less of the
8:28
anti slogans because
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SPEAKER_00: they get so caught up in.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: Here's my press release,
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SPEAKER_00: even though we just told her that she should have said,
8:35
SPEAKER_00: don't say anything.
8:36
SPEAKER_00: But she said something.
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SPEAKER_00: But she said the truth out loud, which I thought was kind of a bummer.
8:41
Um,
8:41
because she probably hasn't because I think she just hadn't
8:44
talked about it.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: Right.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: I think that,
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SPEAKER_00: I think that's kind of a little bit of not what I would do,
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SPEAKER_00: but at the end of the day,
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SPEAKER_00: the gun groups really got all crazy with it.
8:53
SPEAKER_00: Right.
8:54
Cause they know they,
8:54
they thought they had the bill dead and,
8:57
and yet the bill still.
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SPEAKER_00: So fast forward, bill moves forward out of committee.
9:01
SPEAKER_00: Of course it passes.
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SPEAKER_01: Yes.
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SPEAKER_00: And then that created a lot of feelings,
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SPEAKER_00: I think on the house Republican side over the course of the weekend.
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SPEAKER_01: So then we come back and it's Monday, I guess.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: Was it Monday?
9:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
9:13
That the first thing up or I think the discussion had been over
9:18
the weekend is
9:20
SPEAKER_01: there needs to be something that happens.
9:23
SPEAKER_01: If you're going to create a hostile work environment,
9:25
SPEAKER_01: you should probably lose something,
9:26
SPEAKER_01: right,
9:26
SPEAKER_01: for that.
9:27
There needs to be reprimand or there needs to be investigation
9:30
or there needs to be punishment.
9:31
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
9:31
And what I think they got to was Krupp is co-chair of joint
9:35
conduct and house
9:36
SPEAKER_01: conduct,
9:38
SPEAKER_01: or chair of conduct on the house,
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SPEAKER_01: and that makes him co-chair of joint conduct.
9:42
SPEAKER_01: And maybe his resignation should be in order.
9:44
SPEAKER_01: So his resignation comes up.
9:47
SPEAKER_01: Now,
9:47
SPEAKER_01: the resignation order,
9:49
SPEAKER_01: or the motion to accept his resignation,
9:53
SPEAKER_01: is different than a motion to replace him.
9:56
SPEAKER_01: However, on the floor...
9:59
Leader Bowman moved those two things together,
10:02
which I guess makes it non-debatable.
10:04
And I think the Republicans were under the impression there was
10:07
the potential to
10:08
SPEAKER_01: kind of talk through this issue a little bit,
10:10
SPEAKER_00: right?
10:11
SPEAKER_01: And there wasn't.
10:12
SPEAKER_01: And so that vote happens.
10:14
SPEAKER_01: Everybody except Representative Wallin votes for the motion.
10:17
SPEAKER_01: I think Wallin was very frustrated with how the motion got rolled out.
10:21
SPEAKER_01: Maybe that the motion wasn't even in order,
10:23
SPEAKER_01: but it was happening and there was no stopping it,
10:24
SPEAKER_01: right?
10:25
SPEAKER_01: So she votes no.
10:26
The Republicans immediately start picking up their stuff and
10:28
they're walking off the floor.
10:30
SPEAKER_01: And you can see key Democratic staff stand up and start to walk around.
10:33
You can see the speaker and the leadership start to walk around
10:36
in a hurry.
10:37
And I don't know if they knew what was going on and were
10:39
springing into action or
10:40
SPEAKER_01: they were going what was going on.
10:42
SPEAKER_01: But it started to get very exciting on the floor.
10:45
SPEAKER_01: The next bill up is one of the most controversial obsession,
10:47
which is an increase of 1.25% in the transient lodging tax on
10:52
hotels to pay for a
10:53
SPEAKER_01: combination of things,
10:55
SPEAKER_01: wildlife and wolf depredation.
10:57
SPEAKER_01: The wildlife programs being more important to Democrats mostly,
11:01
SPEAKER_01: and then the wolf depredation being very important to Republicans.
11:04
SPEAKER_01: The end of last session, the wolf funding died.
11:07
This bill died in the Senate on a minority report because of a
11:12
timing thing.
11:13
SPEAKER_01: So it gets brought back in a short session.
11:15
Passing a tax in the short session right before an election is
11:17
always super fun for everybody.
11:19
SPEAKER_01: And so that bill comes up.
11:20
SPEAKER_01: So the Republicans walk off and a bunch of everybody else is going,
11:24
SPEAKER_01: they're walking out for the TLT.
11:25
And I was like,
11:26
Representative Owens is a chief sponsor and he's walked out.
11:30
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's over TLT.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: I think it's the previous vote.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: So after that, and I'm trying to remember even what happens after that.
11:38
SPEAKER_00: Well,
11:39
SPEAKER_00: I remember I was over here,
11:40
SPEAKER_00: and I'm looking at it,
11:41
SPEAKER_00: and I'm like,
11:42
SPEAKER_00: well,
11:42
SPEAKER_00: what's going on with the house?
11:43
And you kind of have it on TV cameras,
11:45
and we have it on our computers and stuff.
11:47
So I open up the house,
11:48
and then I see there were still a couple of Republicans on the
11:51
floor.
11:53
and and nobody else and then they were kind of like talking
11:56
about the tlt thing and
11:57
i'm like what the hell is going on and then abruptly it just
12:01
kind of stopped and
12:02
they went to recess which so it's been pretty pretty wild last
12:07
couple of days that
12:09
SPEAKER_00: happened again yesterday where republicans are laid to the floor and
12:13
SPEAKER_00: clearly negotiating with the leader on stuff, right?
12:15
The two leaders are trying to negotiate things,
12:18
which is what they're supposed to do.
12:19
SPEAKER_01: It's not supposed to be quite this dysfunctional of a negotiation,
12:25
SPEAKER_01: but you've got to do what you've got to do.
12:29
SPEAKER_00: Things are messy, Reagan.
12:30
SPEAKER_00: Things get messy.
12:32
SPEAKER_01: We have a much messier process.
12:34
SPEAKER_01: You could say a more open and transparent-ish process, I suppose.
12:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, probably.
12:37
SPEAKER_01: But I do think...
12:39
SPEAKER_01: One of the big things about this,
12:40
SPEAKER_01: though,
12:40
SPEAKER_01: is that Republicans,
12:42
one of the things they're doing really well is if you show up
12:45
for that beginning
12:46
SPEAKER_01: roll call and you're counted,
12:47
SPEAKER_01: you can no longer receive,
12:49
SPEAKER_01: I believe,
12:50
SPEAKER_01: an excused absence.
12:51
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's the assumption everybody's operating under right now.
12:54
Now,
12:54
maybe that assumption changes or the speaker tries to push the
12:57
envelope on that.
12:58
SPEAKER_01: But right now, if you're counted at the beginning of floor...
13:01
SPEAKER_01: They keep trying to recess and come back.
13:02
SPEAKER_01: They recess for lunch and committees and then come back.
13:04
SPEAKER_01: Well, you can just not show up for the second one.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: Everything that's there can get delayed to the next day.
13:09
SPEAKER_01: That really costs you.
13:10
Floor time is super important now as we're in the second to
13:13
last week of session.
13:15
You only have one more full week and it can take some time to
13:18
move this stuff.
13:19
And the Republicans are doing a very good job of slow walking
13:22
this stuff without
13:24
walking out and costing themselves unexcused absences of which
13:27
they only can take
13:28
SPEAKER_01: nine before they're barred from running again.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: And I think the corrupt stuff,
13:31
SPEAKER_00: just to put a finer point or a finish on that,
13:33
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats are definitely not doing themselves any favors.
13:36
SPEAKER_00: No, I think they can clearly say like they're not there.
13:40
SPEAKER_00: There's some chaos happening without even Republican help.
13:43
They're doing enough chaos inside their own tent to allow us to
13:49
create even more chaos.
13:50
SPEAKER_01: We colloquially call it like dem on dem violence,
13:53
SPEAKER_01: which I'm not not actual physical violence,
13:56
SPEAKER_01: but political and personal issues.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: We do a good job of doing that.
14:00
oh yeah we love republican oh republican infighting is just you
14:04
know at this point
14:05
if you if you look up republican infighting in a dictionary the
14:08
oregon republican
14:09
party is the definition of that uh and then sometimes you see a
14:13
bubble yeah we're
14:14
pretty good at that reagan i mean as far as infighting goes but
14:17
that's okay i don't
14:18
mind the infighting i like primaries for the sake of talking
14:20
about where we should
14:21
SPEAKER_00: go and who should be leading the banter so i don't mind that at all
14:24
SPEAKER_00: So that leaves us with like $15.99.
14:26
SPEAKER_00: So the theory is it was first read on the House then yesterday.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
14:31
SPEAKER_00: So it gets second read today because it touches a committee.
14:36
SPEAKER_00: So there's no committee that actually has to hear it again.
14:38
SPEAKER_00: So it's a joint committee.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: So paperwork just touches the committee.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: They don't have to vote on it again.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: And that's already done, by the way.
14:43
SPEAKER_00: It's popped out on a second reading list.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: Yes, it just happened.
14:46
SPEAKER_00: So now it's second reading.
14:47
SPEAKER_00: So theoretically they could vote on it tomorrow.
14:50
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
14:51
SPEAKER_00: However,
14:52
what do you think the percentage likelihood is of $15.99 being
14:56
voted on the House
14:57
SPEAKER_00: floor tomorrow?
14:58
SPEAKER_00: Do you have a thought?
15:00
SPEAKER_00: What's your yes or no percentage?
15:04
SPEAKER_01: A couple of things.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of social media activity.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, I...
15:10
SPEAKER_01: What I like to do,
15:11
SPEAKER_01: Brian,
15:11
SPEAKER_01: and I do this a lot,
15:12
SPEAKER_01: is say,
15:14
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:14
I can't talk about that because it makes me seem like I know
15:17
stuff that I don't
15:18
SPEAKER_01: know,
15:19
SPEAKER_01: which I don't really know.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: So here's what I'm speculating.
15:21
Two videos I saw yesterday on social media that I think kind of
15:24
give you the best
15:25
SPEAKER_01: insight into the Republican strategy.
15:27
Drazen had a video that said,
15:29
we delayed $15.99 in the Senate for,
15:31
I think she said,
15:32
two weeks.
15:33
And that's enough time to go past the date that the Secretary
15:36
of State gave to say
15:38
SPEAKER_01: if you want to meet all these federal deadlines.
15:40
SPEAKER_01: Which is today.
15:41
SPEAKER_01: The 26th, right?
15:42
SPEAKER_01: Is that today?
15:43
SPEAKER_00: 25th.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: 25th.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: He said the 25th.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: Softly.
15:46
SPEAKER_01: So they say theoretically they need the bill, the 25th.
15:51
I guess maybe some of the clerks are saying they could get the
15:53
info by Friday and
15:55
SPEAKER_01: get all the processes done.
15:57
SPEAKER_01: This is one thing I don't know about the bill,
15:58
SPEAKER_01: Brian,
15:59
SPEAKER_01: because I probably need to go read it,
16:00
SPEAKER_01: but it's been on your side.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you have looked at this part.
16:03
Does the bill do the thing which says notwithstanding ignore
16:07
all of our other laws
16:09
SPEAKER_01: and just do what this says?
16:10
Because what I'm hearing is that the Democrats believe that
16:14
their bill allows them
16:15
SPEAKER_01: to skip all that process.
16:16
SPEAKER_01: And therefore,
16:17
as long as they don't miss the date to print yes or no on the
16:21
gas text on the
16:22
SPEAKER_01: ballot,
16:22
SPEAKER_01: they have met their legal obligation.
16:26
SPEAKER_00: Yes,
16:26
SPEAKER_00: and I believe that probably will be backed up by the courts,
16:29
SPEAKER_00: but maybe that'll be determined or not.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: But I think they could still...
16:38
I think Tobias could do it at the point where it's passed and
16:41
the governor signs it.
16:42
Like,
16:42
he's going to move forward as if it goes on,
16:45
unless he gets an injunction from the courts.
16:47
SPEAKER_00: Right.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: He's just going to do,
16:50
SPEAKER_00: and I'm sure that he's assuming at this point since it passed the Senate,
16:53
SPEAKER_00: and also Tobias is a Democrat,
16:55
so it's clear to say that he's going to kind of go down that
16:58
road of getting
16:59
SPEAKER_00: everything prepared as if it's coming.
17:02
SPEAKER_01: Well,
17:02
and there was an interesting – and I don't know if – this got
17:05
reported kind of,
17:06
SPEAKER_01: but I never saw the letter exchange –
17:09
SPEAKER_01: So the Republican leaders,
17:11
SPEAKER_01: Elmer and Starr,
17:11
SPEAKER_01: sent a letter to Secretary Reed basically saying,
17:15
SPEAKER_01: are you going to hold to your dates?
17:16
SPEAKER_01: And he just replied, I'm going to follow the law, which is great.
17:20
SPEAKER_01: Don't know where he got that.
17:21
SPEAKER_01: It's a good tagline.
17:22
SPEAKER_01: I'd put up a red poster of follow the law if I were him.
17:26
SPEAKER_01: Just inside jokes.
17:27
SPEAKER_01: So great.
17:29
SPEAKER_01: But what he's essentially saying,
17:31
SPEAKER_01: I think,
17:31
is if you send me a bill that says I have to ignore all these
17:34
other statutes,
17:34
I have to ignore all these other statutes because that's what
17:36
the bill says I have
17:37
SPEAKER_01: to do.
17:38
Now,
17:39
if it doesn't say that,
17:40
he'll still start the process to put it on the ballot.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: And then the date that it reaches the ballot,
17:45
SPEAKER_01: if he hasn't done everything,
17:45
SPEAKER_01: he's going to say this has not sufficiently made the ballot.
17:48
SPEAKER_01: It goes to November.
17:50
And or I don't know,
17:52
does it go into some gray area where it never appears on the
17:54
ballot?
17:54
SPEAKER_01: That would be wild.
17:55
I think if you're the Republicans,
17:57
what you'd want to do is delay as long as possible.
18:00
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't seem like there's the will for a walkout in either caucus.
18:06
SPEAKER_01: So there's no killing it.
18:07
Because by killing it,
18:08
you're also going to kill probably every other bill in the
18:11
section.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: And I don't think there's a lot of appetite for that.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: So all you can do is push past the deadline that you think is required.
18:17
SPEAKER_01: You've got to find a military or overseas voter to say,
18:20
SPEAKER_01: hey,
18:20
why didn't I get any information about this here gas tax like
18:23
I'm supposed to?
18:24
You file an injunction or you file a lawsuit and you just try
18:28
to hang it up in the courts.
18:29
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's a good... Deny my constitutional right to vote.
18:33
SPEAKER_01: That's a good strategy,
18:34
especially if you can file it in a lower court and you don't
18:37
have to go straight to
18:38
the Supreme Court because we already know the Supreme Court
18:40
hates Republicans and
18:41
SPEAKER_01: hates reading things and interpreting the law.
18:44
SPEAKER_01: They love intent.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: They don't love what's actually written in the Constitution.
18:48
SPEAKER_01: And so I'm not expecting to get a good ruling out of them.
18:51
But if you can get them stuck in the courts and not moving fast
18:55
enough to make the
18:56
SPEAKER_01: ballot,
18:56
SPEAKER_01: that's a good strategy too.
18:58
SPEAKER_01: Then at some point...
18:59
SPEAKER_00: Secretary Reed has to make the call that he can't
19:04
He can't plausibly put it on a ballot that gets out there
19:07
that's going to be his
19:09
SPEAKER_00: constitutional duty to convey the elections.
19:13
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, you just have to muck it all up.
19:15
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
19:16
And I don't know if it helps,
19:17
you know,
19:17
if it stays,
19:18
if all that process keeps going.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: And I was having this argument last night.
19:23
SPEAKER_00: Like, at the end of the day, we blame Democrats.
19:26
SPEAKER_00: We'll continue to blame Democrats.
19:28
The gas tax goes down in flames,
19:30
right,
19:31
in the May primary if they end up doing it.
19:33
But I really believe in elections there's pre-summer and then
19:37
there's post-summer.
19:38
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
19:39
And they're really banking on the idea that this all happens
19:44
and whatever blame
19:45
SPEAKER_00: people want to throw,
19:46
SPEAKER_00: that all ends as people forget stuff over the summer.
19:51
SPEAKER_00: And then we have the fall, which is like a new year.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: You know,
19:56
SPEAKER_00: September starts,
19:57
SPEAKER_00: Labor Day hits during campaign season,
19:58
SPEAKER_00: and we just completely forget about anything to happen before summer.
20:03
SPEAKER_00: So that happened to us in 22.
20:05
SPEAKER_00: Think about like all the abortion stuff, all the things like right.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: And then the Supreme Court does the case on abortion.
20:10
SPEAKER_00: And then we just we just got really,
20:13
SPEAKER_00: you know,
20:14
SPEAKER_00: things just went slowly,
20:15
SPEAKER_00: slowly downhill for Republicans because of the right.
20:21
The Supreme Court case on on abortion really kind of hurt us
20:24
over the course of the summer.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: But anyways, that's $15.99.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: We shall see what happens.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: We'll keep that going.
20:31
If you really want to kind of hear the details in the
20:33
Democrats' position on
20:34
SPEAKER_00: $15.99,
20:34
I think you should listen to Rep Chotson in our debate because
20:38
I thought that was
20:38
SPEAKER_00: pretty good.
20:39
He did a good job laying out their case,
20:41
and I think I did a good job of blowing holes in it.
20:45
SPEAKER_01: Also,
20:46
SPEAKER_01: if you are a military or overseas voter that is from Harney County,
20:52
we want to talk to you because we want this filed in Harney
20:55
County and we want the
20:56
SPEAKER_01: Measure 114 judge to deal with this also,
20:59
SPEAKER_01: I think.
21:00
SPEAKER_01: If you're venue shopping, that's what I would be looking for.
21:02
SPEAKER_01: That's a great idea.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we like Harney County for some reason.
21:06
SPEAKER_01: We'll start making some calls.
21:08
SPEAKER_01: You know, they got real good judges down there.
21:09
SPEAKER_01: Very fair-minded, impartial, follow-the-law judges.
21:14
SPEAKER_01: And that's what we like.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: Nice.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: All right.
21:16
Let's transition real quick to campaigns now that we talked
21:20
about what's happening
21:21
SPEAKER_00: in the building.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: And there's way more going on than what we just talked about.
21:24
SPEAKER_00: It's been a pretty wild short session.
21:27
So I've talked to a couple of the different Republican
21:34
strategists inside each of the camps.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: And they've all said it's a three-way race.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: Like, nobody else matters except for Drazen, Dudley, and Deal.
21:46
SPEAKER_00: Oh, they're all Ds.
21:47
SPEAKER_00: That's interesting.
21:48
I just didn't realize their last name starts with D.
21:51
So Dudley,
21:52
Drazen,
21:53
Deal.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: That is kind of interesting.
21:56
SPEAKER_01: Hold on, hold on.
21:57
SPEAKER_01: I'm looking at the list of candidates that have filed.
21:59
SPEAKER_01: So...
22:03
SPEAKER_01: We don't care about... We don't think David Medina's in it.
22:05
SPEAKER_01: We don't think Paul Romero's in it.
22:07
Listen,
22:07
I want to say,
22:08
Medina's doing some really solid social media stuff.
22:10
SPEAKER_01: I'm interested,
22:11
SPEAKER_01: but typically,
22:12
SPEAKER_01: I'll just say,
22:13
SPEAKER_01: that stuff does not translate into a large number of votes.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: He might have high engagement.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: He might get something out of it.
22:19
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's going to translate to a lot of votes.
22:21
SPEAKER_00: No.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: And he's doing fine.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: He's going around doing the thing.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: He's doing better than some others.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
22:27
So I think he's got a...
22:28
And he's got a decent social media following,
22:30
so he's doing a...
22:31
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know internally what David's really – I mean,
22:35
SPEAKER_00: I think he knows he doesn't have a shot at winning,
22:37
SPEAKER_00: but I think he probably says,
22:38
SPEAKER_00: hey,
22:38
SPEAKER_00: this is just a good opportunity for me to kind of increase his profile,
22:44
SPEAKER_00: get his social media following up a little bit more.
22:47
SPEAKER_00: And maybe that spins into something else, right?
22:49
SPEAKER_00: Who knows, right?
22:50
SPEAKER_00: So I think he could spin it into – I mean,
22:53
he should go run for like CD6 or something because nobody's
22:56
challenging Salinas.
22:58
SPEAKER_00: And at least that would be pretty good.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: But regardless, back to the race, it's the three Ds, right?
23:06
SPEAKER_00: And the three Ds in the last name.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: And the polling they have is like,
23:10
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:10
SPEAKER_00: I've seen polling where Drazen's up and then polling where they're tied.
23:15
But I always go to the betting markets because at the end of
23:17
the day,
23:18
it's always about betting.
23:19
SPEAKER_01: Which one do you have up right now?
23:21
SPEAKER_00: I have Kalshi, K-A-L-S-H-I.
23:24
SPEAKER_01: That one seems to update faster than the Polymarket.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: It is.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: It's updating,
23:27
SPEAKER_00: and they have right now,
23:28
SPEAKER_00: and there's been volume like $16,372 is bet on this primary.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: So I also like that,
23:36
SPEAKER_00: and the volume has increased kind of dramatically,
23:38
which is probably because you and I are talking about it and
23:40
telling people to go
23:41
SPEAKER_00: there.
23:42
SPEAKER_00: So I believe that to be the case.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: But anyways, if you bought Drazen,
23:48
SPEAKER_00: They have her at 47%.
23:52
SPEAKER_00: They have Ed Deal at 28% right now.
23:55
SPEAKER_00: Looks like he dropped off a little bit.
23:58
They had Ed Deal at 48% when he first announced,
24:03
and now he's kind of dropped back down.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: So currently Ed is sitting at 28% and Dudley at 19%.
24:11
SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking at that,
24:12
SPEAKER_01: and I'm going,
24:13
is that – because you said you may have been told or little
24:18
birdies have shared
24:19
SPEAKER_01: polling with you.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: Is that kind of representative of where the race is standing right now?
24:23
SPEAKER_01: Is it close?
24:25
Yeah,
24:25
I think it's probably – I mean,
24:26
because,
24:27
you know,
24:27
polling is a snapshot in time,
24:29
right?
24:29
SPEAKER_00: So depending,
24:31
SPEAKER_00: like,
24:31
if you did a Drazen poll prior to Ed Deal and Dudley actually
24:37
announcing and doing
24:38
SPEAKER_00: anything,
24:39
SPEAKER_00: clearly Christine's going to have a better number.
24:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: Right.
24:42
SPEAKER_00: So then if you did a poll,
24:44
SPEAKER_00: like if Dudley did a poll,
24:46
SPEAKER_00: you know,
24:47
SPEAKER_00: two days ago,
24:48
he's probably going to have a better number than he had a month
24:50
ago before he
24:51
SPEAKER_00: announced.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: Right.
24:52
So he's kind of been getting out there a little bit more and
24:54
doing some social.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: And then a deal has been out there doing his thing.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: So I think at the end of the day, here's my take on the governor's race.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: And we can and actually I represented a deal and I talked the other day.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: So we're hopefully going to have him on here pretty soon.
25:08
SPEAKER_00: And I'd love to get his thoughts on it.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: This is going to be a three-way race.
25:12
And my problem for Christine is I think her ceiling,
25:17
she's at her ceiling.
25:19
SPEAKER_00: I don't think she gets higher.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: Wherever she's at today, it doesn't get better.
25:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: So...
25:27
SPEAKER_00: But I don't know where her floor is either.
25:30
SPEAKER_00: So if her ceiling isn't above 50%, that's for sure.
25:34
So her ceiling is probably right now,
25:36
today,
25:36
maybe if it's 40%,
25:38
call it whatever.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: That's her ceiling.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: She doesn't get better than that.
25:42
So then because the other two are going to move up as they
25:44
raise money and work the
25:45
SPEAKER_00: state and work Republicans.
25:47
SPEAKER_01: Theoretically.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: So their ceiling should be higher than what it's at today.
25:50
SPEAKER_00: Theoretically.
25:51
SPEAKER_00: Right.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: And so my thought is,
25:53
SPEAKER_00: is like if it becomes a through a race,
25:55
I think it's going to get really because the other candidates
25:58
probably drop off.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: But the reality is, what did you say?
26:01
SPEAKER_00: There's 14 of them.
26:03
SPEAKER_00: So they're probably collectively pull 20 percent off the top.
26:09
SPEAKER_00: They get 1% here and 2% there.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: I mean, a half a percent.
26:13
SPEAKER_00: So collectively, maybe they pull 15%, 20% off the top.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: So the reality is you're fighting for 75% of the rest of those ballots.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: It could end up being a super, super tight race.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: If the race is today, I think Drazen wins.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: But the race isn't today.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: The race is two and a half months from today.
26:34
SPEAKER_00: And a lot can happen, and they haven't started bashing Drazen.
26:37
SPEAKER_00: Now,
26:37
SPEAKER_00: if Ed Diehl and Dudley start going after Drazen,
26:41
SPEAKER_00: or somebody else starts bashing Drazen,
26:44
SPEAKER_00: then we could see some numbers,
26:45
SPEAKER_00: and vice versa,
26:46
SPEAKER_00: right?
26:46
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
26:47
SPEAKER_00: if Christine starts pounding on Ed,
26:49
SPEAKER_00: if he kind of comes up on her heels,
26:52
SPEAKER_00: and then she's got more money in him,
26:53
SPEAKER_00: and she puts out a hate mail or something like that.
26:57
So there's a lot of game left to go,
26:59
but I think it's going to get tighter,
27:02
not wider.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: And I also think,
27:04
so this reminds me very much of the CD2 primary and how
27:08
loosey-goosey that was.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: You had, obviously, current Congressman Cliff Bentz.
27:14
You had Newt Bueller,
27:15
who kind of,
27:16
and everybody broke out into a different region of CD2.
27:20
SPEAKER_01: And here,
27:20
SPEAKER_01: there's a huge portion of the state that doesn't really have a candidate,
27:23
SPEAKER_01: which is there's not really a quote-unquote Eastern Oregon candidate.
27:27
SPEAKER_01: You've got Drazen that's in the I-5 corridor, Clackamas area.
27:30
SPEAKER_01: You've got Deal, who is close to I-5, in the Canyon area.
27:35
And then you've got Dudley,
27:36
who's from Central Oregon,
27:38
but I think like sort of Portland-y.
27:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's where everybody knows him from.
27:42
SPEAKER_01: Lake Oswego, he's a living one.
27:44
SPEAKER_01: So,
27:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:45
maybe he does better in Central Oregon if people figure out
27:47
he's a resident,
27:48
SPEAKER_01: but I'm not sure that a lot of people are aware of that.
27:50
SPEAKER_01: He's been generally pretty private about his life.
27:53
SPEAKER_01: He hasn't been in public life for over a decade.
27:56
SPEAKER_01: So you've got that.
27:57
SPEAKER_01: I think also it's important to...
28:01
SPEAKER_01: draw the distinction from the internet primary and the actual primary.
28:05
You can go out there and a candidate can post as many attack
28:09
memes on candidates
28:10
SPEAKER_01: and as many 15-second videos,
28:13
SPEAKER_01: but if you don't have real money behind those things,
28:16
SPEAKER_01: either on mail,
28:17
SPEAKER_01: either on paid social and digital,
28:19
SPEAKER_01: either on paid TV,
28:20
SPEAKER_01: it's not going to actually make a dent.
28:22
Yes,
28:22
you might get 500 Facebook comments,
28:24
but that's like a drop in the bucket.
28:26
You're not reaching the – like half of the voters in the
28:30
primary are going to be
28:31
SPEAKER_01: over 65,
28:31
SPEAKER_01: and not all of them are active Facebook users.
28:34
So you'll have to hit them with either mail or with texting or
28:37
with TV or with digital.
28:39
And if you don't have money to do that statewide,
28:41
which gets expensive,
28:42
gets expensive fast.
28:43
SPEAKER_01: Right now, the only one who has money is Drazen.
28:46
And she doesn't have to spend it bashing any of her opponents
28:48
if her opponents
28:49
SPEAKER_01: don't raise any money.
28:50
SPEAKER_01: We still don't know what a deal is going to do.
28:52
SPEAKER_01: There's the rumors flying around that Phil Knight is funding Dudley,
28:54
SPEAKER_01: but it hasn't happened yet.
28:56
SPEAKER_01: And he kind of needs it to happen pretty soon, I think.
28:59
Or maybe he lays out the plan and he knows exactly when the
29:02
money hits and the ads
29:03
SPEAKER_01: are produced and they just,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: boom,
29:05
SPEAKER_01: they go.
29:05
SPEAKER_01: And maybe he can thread a needle.
29:07
SPEAKER_01: But the longer you wait, you need time for that stuff to sink in.
29:11
SPEAKER_01: You don't just have to show somebody one ad and they flip.
29:14
SPEAKER_01: You need to show it to them 10,
29:16
SPEAKER_01: 15,
29:19
20 times before they start going,
29:18
SPEAKER_01: oh,
29:18
SPEAKER_01: I think I've changed my mind.
29:20
SPEAKER_01: And like you said, there's two months left.
29:22
SPEAKER_00: And I think I agree with everything you just said,
29:25
SPEAKER_00: so that clearly puts Christine as the front runner.
29:27
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: But I think it's pretty hard.
29:32
The only thing I'll say that's usually very difficult to
29:34
maintain your front runner status
29:37
SPEAKER_00: all the way through a primary.
29:39
SPEAKER_00: Like your CD2 scenario, Jimmy Crumpacker was the frontrunner.
29:44
SPEAKER_01: He was for a bit.
29:45
SPEAKER_00: He was the frontrunner,
29:46
SPEAKER_00: and then you had Newt Buehler get in,
29:48
and then the whole time you just had steady Eddie Cliff Benz
29:51
that was putting out
29:53
SPEAKER_00: the same mailer every single week.
29:56
SPEAKER_00: And it literally was just him on horseback with some of his buddies.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: And then all the people, like no policy.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: It was just all the people that endorsed him.
30:05
SPEAKER_00: Do you remember that mailer?
30:06
SPEAKER_00: Like you literally put it out like every third day.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: I got one in the mail.
30:11
SPEAKER_00: And so then while those two at the top were bashing each other,
30:16
SPEAKER_00: You might have known what was going on with that race, right, Reagan?
30:18
SPEAKER_00: So you were part of that.
30:19
SPEAKER_00: I saw a little bit.
30:22
SPEAKER_00: So while they're bashing each other,
30:23
SPEAKER_00: then Jason Atkinson's getting in,
30:25
SPEAKER_00: and he's trying to flank everybody,
30:26
SPEAKER_00: and then you had all this craziness.
30:28
SPEAKER_00: There's just kind of Cliff Benz, who just kind of won with...
30:31
SPEAKER_00: you know, a percentage of the vote.
30:33
So I,
30:33
I,
30:34
I'm not sure what will happen this one,
30:35
but it is fascinating to watch.
30:37
It's fun to definitely not be involved in these campaigns and
30:44
getting to just report on it.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: I think that's more fun.
30:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
30:47
i totally agree so again stuff to watch there um but now may
30:51
not be the only
30:52
interesting statewide race that's happening in may so uh we
30:56
have a u.s senate race
30:58
i don't see anything interesting about that race at the moment
31:01
um certainly could
31:02
get interesting maybe if a off-term senator wanted to jump in
31:06
but it looks like we
31:07
SPEAKER_01: may actually have a uh you know a bit of a statewide race so
31:12
SPEAKER_01: One of these positions that kind of goes under the radar.
31:14
And I think really the last time it was like a competitive,
31:18
competitive race.
31:19
SPEAKER_01: And I'm trying to remember.
31:21
Senator Starr was running for bully commissioner in the middle
31:26
of his term.
31:27
SPEAKER_01: I think he ran in 2010.
31:28
SPEAKER_01: It might have been 12.
31:29
SPEAKER_01: I think it was 12.
31:30
SPEAKER_01: It was 2012.
31:31
SPEAKER_01: And he was running, I think, against the Vakian at that time.
31:34
SPEAKER_01: My brain, I should have looked this up.
31:36
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to go look it up.
31:38
SPEAKER_01: But that was a bully race.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: And everybody was in on Star.
31:41
SPEAKER_01: And they liked it.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: And I think Republicans did a good job.
31:45
SPEAKER_01: I think if that race had happened in 2010, we might have stolen that.
31:49
Because there was a ton of energy with the Tea Party and
31:51
everything that was going on.
31:52
SPEAKER_01: But timing-wise, it still worked out for Democrats.
31:56
SPEAKER_01: It looks like we may have a candidate.
31:58
SPEAKER_01: He says he's waiting for a callback from a couple of people.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: But Senator Dick Anderson, who's in the middle of a term.
32:05
SPEAKER_01: Uh, that he was, uh, that he's interested in running for a bully.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: He,
32:09
SPEAKER_01: he had a bill earlier this session to,
32:12
SPEAKER_01: um,
32:12
because the commissioner is applying prevailing wage to just
32:16
anything that moves
32:17
SPEAKER_01: right now.
32:17
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, basically.
32:18
And he thinks maybe we should exempt stuff like affordable
32:20
housing and childcare
32:22
SPEAKER_01: from that crazy radical,
32:23
SPEAKER_01: uh,
32:24
SPEAKER_01: net,
32:24
SPEAKER_01: uh,
32:25
nutty position to have there from senator anderson um actually
32:29
i think almost
32:29
everybody agrees with him except for uh you know a couple of
32:32
unions uh and the
32:33
bully commissioner uh so he wants to run and i think he's a
32:37
really great candidate
32:38
i think uh he's really well liked and this is the thing that's
32:41
really dangerous is
32:42
i've never met a democrat who doesn't like uh dick anderson
32:45
never met a republican
32:46
SPEAKER_01: who doesn't like
32:47
dick anderson like everybody likes this guy and i think having
32:51
a guy who's super
32:51
likable who isn't um you know he's also not known as a hardcore
32:56
uh right winger
32:57
he's very reasonable but he stands on his conservative uh
33:00
republican values as well
33:02
um but he's one of those like happy warrior types that i think
33:05
is a very dangerous
33:06
type of a candidate if you're if you're the incumbent bully
33:09
commissioner so you
33:10
SPEAKER_01: know you've worked with him
33:11
SPEAKER_01: You currently work for him.
33:14
SPEAKER_01: You've done campaigns with him.
33:15
SPEAKER_01: What do you think about this bully commissioner race?
33:17
I think we kind of,
33:19
we've backed our way into the bully commissioner race.
33:21
It really wasn't like,
33:23
you know,
33:24
a desire for Senator Anderson to run for bully.
33:28
SPEAKER_00: That's not like it wasn't his political, you know, idea.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: It's really kind of like,
33:33
SPEAKER_00: as he's worked on housing over the last four or five years,
33:35
SPEAKER_00: it really been...
33:37
SPEAKER_00: You know, the champion of housing on the Senate side for sure.
33:40
SPEAKER_00: Like,
33:41
SPEAKER_00: and he's worked across aisle and,
33:43
SPEAKER_00: and then across chamber obviously works with Vicki,
33:45
SPEAKER_00: uh,
33:46
SPEAKER_00: Brie Syverson on housing as well.
33:49
Cause she's the vice chair and works well with the chair of
33:52
housing and both,
33:53
both chambers.
33:53
SPEAKER_00: And we've really done some good work in housing.
33:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
33:57
SPEAKER_00: Reagan.
33:57
SPEAKER_00: I mean, between the House chamber on housing with Rep.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: Marsh and then and then Senator Anderson,
34:03
SPEAKER_00: even and even with,
34:04
SPEAKER_00: like you said,
34:05
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats,
34:06
SPEAKER_00: we've done some good stuff.
34:08
SPEAKER_00: And we ran into this hedgehog called labor unions.
34:11
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
34:12
SPEAKER_00: And and so we spend billions of dollars.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: We have spent.
34:16
SPEAKER_00: billions of dollars on affordable housing.
34:19
SPEAKER_00: And so we started looking at all these new,
34:23
just basically interpretations of the law by the bully
34:27
commissioner overturning
34:28
previous bully commissioner like Val Hoyle's interpretations
34:34
because the grand
34:35
SPEAKER_00: bargain back in the early two thousands said,
34:38
SPEAKER_00: Hey,
34:38
we want prevailing wage on public money except for affordable
34:42
housing because you
34:43
SPEAKER_00: know,
34:43
SPEAKER_00: we kind of need that stuff.
34:45
It's so clearly the statute so clearly written to exempt
34:47
affordable housing.
34:49
It's insane that they figured out a loophole to jam it through
34:53
anyway and continue to prevail.
34:54
SPEAKER_01: It's wild.
34:55
SPEAKER_00: So we we've been working on this.
34:57
So if we're going to continue to fund affordable housing and
35:00
affordable housing
35:01
SPEAKER_00: projects have gotten so expensive,
35:03
SPEAKER_00: Reagan.
35:04
We're talking for,
35:05
and when we say affordable housing,
35:07
we mean apartments.
35:09
SPEAKER_00: It's not homes we're building.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: These are apartment buildings.
35:13
SPEAKER_00: And they're run by nonprofits and all the things, right?
35:16
So they have to have affordability within them,
35:18
which makes them affordable.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: So in Portland,
35:21
SPEAKER_00: affordable housing,
35:22
some of those doors are upwards of $730,000 a door to put in a
35:26
one-bedroom
35:26
SPEAKER_00: apartment.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: That sounds pretty affordable.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's just insane.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: The affordable side comes with the rent that you have to pay,
35:37
SPEAKER_00: not with the cost it is to build it.
35:38
Well,
35:38
as long as nobody can make any money from the housing,
35:43
where does the gap?
35:43
SPEAKER_01: And that's the problem.
35:45
If it's so expensive to build affordable housing and you have
35:48
to rent it at an
35:48
SPEAKER_01: affordable rate,
35:50
SPEAKER_01: it's usually based on the average median income of wherever you're at.
35:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
35:54
you set a percentage does it go up to 120 they try to max out
35:57
the percentage as
35:58
much as possible but you can only charge so much for rent for
36:02
that so let's just
36:02
say you have to charge 1200 a month how it's going to take you
36:06
well first of all if
36:07
it costs you more than that to run your apartment building if
36:10
you take that and you
36:11
apply it to all your units or at least all your affordable
36:13
units one you're never
36:14
going to pay back the cost that you know you have to build the
36:17
unit no never
36:18
SPEAKER_01: And then also,
36:19
SPEAKER_01: if you're running a deficit,
36:20
SPEAKER_01: you're actually losing money on running that building,
36:23
SPEAKER_01: which is wild.
36:23
SPEAKER_01: And so what do we do?
36:24
SPEAKER_01: Well,
36:25
Democrats' idea is let's just have the government step in and
36:28
fill the gap and all
36:28
SPEAKER_01: that stuff.
36:29
SPEAKER_01: But that gets expensive really fast.
36:31
SPEAKER_01: It does.
36:31
SPEAKER_01: When the economy tanks,
36:32
it starts to make it really hard to pour money into housing
36:36
because that's not a
36:36
SPEAKER_01: thing that we've spent general fund doing.
36:39
SPEAKER_01: We spend 90 percent.
36:40
SPEAKER_01: I just ran the numbers yesterday, Brian.
36:42
We spend 90% of our general fund on state school fund slash
36:46
education other is what
36:47
SPEAKER_01: it's categorized as.
36:48
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
36:49
SPEAKER_01: And then public safety slash corrections.
36:52
SPEAKER_01: And then, oh, shoot.
36:54
SPEAKER_01: I'm pulling the Rick Perry here.
36:55
SPEAKER_01: What's the third category?
36:56
SPEAKER_00: Human services.
36:57
SPEAKER_01: Healthcare and human services.
36:59
SPEAKER_01: DHS and OHA.
37:00
SPEAKER_01: That's 90% of your general fund.
37:02
And then you've got 4% economic development,
37:05
3% natural resources,
37:06
and another 3% other.
37:08
SPEAKER_01: And then all the money is gone.
37:10
SPEAKER_01: And so it's like, oh, well, where's the money for housing?
37:12
SPEAKER_01: Well, there isn't 30% of our general fund available for housing.
37:15
SPEAKER_01: We're trying to bond some of it.
37:17
SPEAKER_01: We might be able to do that.
37:18
SPEAKER_01: But we have to pay debt service every time we bond.
37:21
And so every time you sell bonds for affordable housing,
37:24
that costs you general fund.
37:26
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's crazy.
37:26
So we got real numbers from real developers that give you the
37:31
difference between
37:33
prevailing wage and just doing the normal job with the
37:35
affordable housing dollars
37:37
SPEAKER_00: that they get from the state.
37:38
SPEAKER_00: And it is at minimum 20% increase.
37:42
SPEAKER_00: So you're adding,
37:43
SPEAKER_00: you know,
37:44
SPEAKER_00: and it's not like,
37:44
SPEAKER_00: and they make it sound like these laborers are low-paying workers,
37:48
SPEAKER_00: right?
37:49
SPEAKER_00: And it's like,
37:50
SPEAKER_00: I ran the numbers,
37:51
SPEAKER_00: and it's basically like a carpenter is already making $44 an hour,
37:55
SPEAKER_00: and then the prevailing wage,
37:57
SPEAKER_00: they go to $49 an hour.
37:58
SPEAKER_00: So...
38:01
SPEAKER_00: Do they make more money?
38:02
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
38:03
But it's not like they're going from 12 bucks an hour to $35 an
38:07
hour,
38:08
right?
38:08
SPEAKER_00: I mean, if that was the case, it'd be completely unattainable.
38:10
SPEAKER_00: So all we asked for was to clarify the exemptions.
38:13
SPEAKER_00: Well, big labor comes in and they just say, hell no, no, no, and no.
38:17
SPEAKER_00: And the bill doesn't even move off the Senate labor and business.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: So we just said, well, maybe this is an area we have to explore.
38:24
SPEAKER_00: And so we're exploring it.
38:26
SPEAKER_00: We'll see what the Senate.
38:27
SPEAKER_00: There's nobody else really running that is even kind of interested in it.
38:31
SPEAKER_00: So we think it's an area in which we could build more.
38:34
And then you start to learn about what else has the bully
38:37
commissioner just been
38:38
SPEAKER_00: completely inept on.
38:40
SPEAKER_00: She can't clear backlogs of the worker wage theft stuff.
38:44
SPEAKER_00: I mean, their backlogs, they said in testimony, they'll clear it in 2029.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: And they got a massive infusion of cash and people.
38:51
SPEAKER_01: Massive.
38:51
SPEAKER_01: to do that in a time when we had a good budget situation,
38:55
SPEAKER_01: and now we have a terrible budget situation.
38:57
SPEAKER_01: So $27,
38:58
$29 budget should be really fun for Boley as they take money
39:01
from probably other
39:02
SPEAKER_00: things that matter.
39:03
SPEAKER_00: And go read Nigel Jackquist.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
39:04
SPEAKER_00: if you don't believe us,
39:05
SPEAKER_00: just go read all of his articles on Boley Commissioner,
39:08
SPEAKER_00: and she's basically corrupt.
39:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean, all of their money for campaigns come from the big labor.
39:14
And they're the ones that come in and they're the ones saying,
39:17
you've got to change this.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: You've got to write that.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: You've got to do this.
39:20
SPEAKER_00: And it's really just not helpful to the state of Oregon.
39:22
SPEAKER_00: So I think the senator is really looking at,
39:25
SPEAKER_00: you know,
39:25
SPEAKER_00: we'll have a go,
39:26
SPEAKER_00: no-go decision here pretty soon.
39:29
SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah, there's a filing deadline coming up.
39:31
SPEAKER_01: So you kind of do have to decide, don't you?
39:33
SPEAKER_00: We have a go, no-go decision coming up here pretty soon.
39:36
SPEAKER_00: And it's really just saying, is there an appetite?
39:41
to really change the future of Oregon,
39:46
you know,
39:46
and,
39:47
and can be in a bully commissioner.
39:49
SPEAKER_00: Can we change, can we change that?
39:51
SPEAKER_00: Can we change the housing?
39:52
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
39:53
Like we could come in day one,
39:55
change the,
39:55
change the interpretations of the law.
39:57
SPEAKER_00: Make it happen and go forward.
39:59
SPEAKER_00: But can we can we also make Oregon a little bit more business friendly?
40:04
SPEAKER_00: Can we protect our workers along the way,
40:06
SPEAKER_00: clear the backlogs and move forward with Senator Anderson?
40:09
SPEAKER_00: I think you can do that easily.
40:11
I think the versus a very because it's a nonpartisan race and
40:15
it's supposed to be a
40:16
SPEAKER_00: nonpartisan office that is charged with a very specific role.
40:21
SPEAKER_00: And so if,
40:22
SPEAKER_00: if that's their job is to do a very specific role,
40:24
SPEAKER_00: but yet you're making it political to me,
40:27
SPEAKER_00: that means you need to go.
40:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
40:28
SPEAKER_00: So,
40:29
SPEAKER_00: and that's where I really go wrong with this agency,
40:32
SPEAKER_00: even like in ways of means today,
40:33
SPEAKER_00: they're passing,
40:35
SPEAKER_00: passing a bill that basically creates a slush fund for a bully,
40:38
SPEAKER_00: which is just,
40:39
SPEAKER_00: they're adding more to,
40:40
so now workers are going to have to pay more every day because
40:44
they created this
40:44
SPEAKER_00: new slush fund that adds to the wage benefit and
40:47
SPEAKER_00: package, but it just goes to bully to use for a slush fund.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: And then they added,
40:51
they're adding $5,000 to the cap for prevailing wage that they
40:55
charge cities.
40:56
So instead of a $7,500 cap fee,
40:58
they're out now adding $12,500 to that fee.
41:02
SPEAKER_00: So just to do the prevailing wage stuff.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: They don't actually do anything for it.
41:07
SPEAKER_00: They just charge you for it.
41:08
SPEAKER_00: So we'll see what happens.
41:10
SPEAKER_00: More to come on that front.
41:12
SPEAKER_00: But we'll see.
41:13
SPEAKER_00: You can read the OPB article Dirk wrote on it.
41:15
SPEAKER_00: He got a hold of the senator.
41:18
SPEAKER_00: Got a couple of lines of quotes from him.
41:20
SPEAKER_00: And then we'll continue to look at it.
41:22
SPEAKER_00: But more to come on that, Reagan.
41:23
SPEAKER_00: I think we've gone long enough.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
41:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm kind of tired.
41:27
SPEAKER_00: I've got stuff to do.
41:28
SPEAKER_00: I really do have stuff that I need to do.
41:31
SPEAKER_00: We've got some other things on the agenda, but we'll talk more.
41:34
SPEAKER_00: So more interviews coming.
41:36
SPEAKER_00: Stay tuned.
41:36
SPEAKER_00: We've got more candidate interviews.
41:38
Hopefully you guys have enjoyed our two times a week because
41:41
it's been exhausting on our front.
41:43
SPEAKER_00: We'll cover filing day as well.
41:44
SPEAKER_01: There's always one or two surprises.
41:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's going to be wild.
41:47
SPEAKER_00: Should be fun.
41:48
SPEAKER_00: All right, get back to work.
41:49
SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Brian.