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ALERT: Election Fever Superspreader Event | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: and this is Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday to you. Is it getting hot in here,
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  Speaker 1: or do we just all have election fever? And unfortunately,
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  Speaker 1: election fever, much like measles, mumps, and rubella, I'm just guessing,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know, is contagious. Contagious. You run into the
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  Speaker 1: wrong person, they sneeze in your face, wham, you've got,
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  Speaker 1: unless you've been vaccinated, you've got, you know, election fever,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: although don't, let's talk about vaccines are going to set
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  Speaker 1: off We're going to sit off 1BC and the other folks,
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  Speaker 1: the ultra-far right, so we won't get into that.
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  Speaker 2: Plus, there isn't a vaccine available for election fever yet.
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  Speaker 3: There isn't?
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  Speaker 2: Oh, well.
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  Speaker 1: It's probably some sort of ointment, but anyways. Welcome to
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  Speaker 1: the show, Aileen Machel, Deputy Chief of Staff, former Deputy
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  Speaker 1: Chief of Staff to Premier David Eby. Aileen, thanks for
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  Speaker 1: being here.
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  Speaker 2: Glad to be here, Rob.
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  Speaker 1: You are on assignment at UBCM, the Union of BC Municipalities, yesterday.
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  Speaker 1: It was a big day with a large plenary and
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  Speaker 1: a series of forums that I was hoping you could discuss.
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  Speaker 1: There was one about insurance actuaries that went on for
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  Speaker 1: several hours. We have the remaining 45 minutes of the
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  Speaker 1: show to discuss that. We're going to park UBCM briefly
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  Speaker 1: because there's no way we can do the show here
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  Speaker 1: without talking about polling and election speculation. I will mention
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  Speaker 1: that if you're looking to run your daily agenda here
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  Speaker 1: for BC Politics, it is day three of UBCM. There
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  Speaker 1: are a bunch of events happening. The BC Green Leader
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  Speaker 1: is speaking at around noon at the convention. There are
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  Speaker 1: opening remarks. There are cabinet town halls this afternoon on
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  Speaker 1: the Look West economics plan, the emergency management issue, and
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  Speaker 1: the strong communities topic. So a bunch of different cabinet
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  Speaker 1: ministers there, depending on which one you pick. And then
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  Speaker 1: the big CUPE reception tonight, where I'm told, I have
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  Speaker 1: not experienced this, people consume the alcoholic products regularly. And
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  Speaker 1: then the next day, Thursday, they have a hard time
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  Speaker 1: operating on the floor of the convention. You wouldn't know
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  Speaker 1: anything about that, so we'll just skip that entire subject
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  Speaker 1: and move to what I think everyone's going to be
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  Speaker 1: asking the Premier about, which is he has an availability
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  Speaker 1: at 10 a.m. this morning for a tour of the
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  Speaker 1: SFU Family School of Medicine with Health Minister Ravi Kalon.
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  Speaker 1: He's going to be taking questions, and I imagine the
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  Speaker 1: question that he is going to get, because he got
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  Speaker 1: it yesterday and he's got it before... Is he planning
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  Speaker 1: on taking the province to an early election? The reason
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  Speaker 1: we're asking, once again, new polling numbers out yesterday from Ipsos,
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  Speaker 1: putting the BC NDP at 45% amongst decided voters, which
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  Speaker 1: is roughly where they were in the last election. The
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  Speaker 1: BC Conservatives down eight points under new leader Carrie Lynn Finlay,
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  Speaker 1: down to 35%, so a 10-point gap. The Greens at 10%,
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  Speaker 1: Centre BC at 4%, Other at 4%, and 1BC at 2%, or.
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  Speaker 1: Negative 2% within the 4% margin of error, which means,
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  Speaker 1: in fact, if you voted for them, your vote would
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  Speaker 1: burst into flames before you even put it in the
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  Speaker 1: ballot box, contaminating other votes in the process. It's a
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  Speaker 1: highly technical electoral term. But that situation, modeled out those
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  Speaker 1: numbers by a gentleman on X, I don't know how
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  Speaker 1: to pronounce his name, Sherastiti, anyways, he does a lot
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  Speaker 1: of modeling, He modeled that out at 61 seats, NDP
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  Speaker 1: up 14, the Conservatives free-falling down to 31, and the
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  Speaker 1: Greens losing a seat at one, which would be NDP, supermajority, territory, alien.
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  Speaker 1: So all of this, combined with what we've been talking
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  Speaker 1: about previously about election fever, the Conservatives being in chaos,
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  Speaker 1: EB maybe looking to take advantage of that, really seemed
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  Speaker 1: to turn the temperature up in the last 24 hours
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  Speaker 1: on election talk.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well.
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  Speaker 2: On the poll, I agree, it shows, you know, stable
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  Speaker 2: support for the BCNDP. It also shows the Conservatives are
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  Speaker 2: in trouble under Carrie Lynn Findlay and 1BC is essentially non-existent.
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  Speaker 2: I think what this poll shows, and again, it's one poll,
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  Speaker 2: snapshot in time, but I think it shows that the
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  Speaker 2: more people learn about the BC Conservatives under Carrie Lynn
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  Speaker 2: Findlay's leadership, the less likely they are to vote for her.
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  Speaker 2: And so this is something that, of course, political strategists
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  Speaker 2: will be looking at. In the rooms around UBCM, the
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  Speaker 2: receptions and meeting rooms and that sort of thing, a
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  Speaker 2: lot of folks are, you know, kind of keeping their
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  Speaker 2: ear to the ground, seeing what kind of gossip they
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  Speaker 2: can pick up. At a lot of these receptions, for example,
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  Speaker 2: it's a room filled with politicians, consultants, lobbyists.
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  Speaker 1: The busiest gossips in the world, basically, in one spot.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're coming together. They're trading gossip or hot goss.
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  Speaker 2: And a couple of topics really do stand out. And
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  Speaker 2: the big one, of course, is these rumors around a
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  Speaker 2: snap election or an election coming potentially even this fall.
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  Speaker 2: And I think, you know, it's something that I understand, right?
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  Speaker 2: Like it is an uncertain time with the trade war.
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  Speaker 2: British Columbians are looking for stability. I think a government
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  Speaker 2: with a larger majority could provide more stability and having
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  Speaker 2: an extra seat or two seat vote margin isn't easy
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  Speaker 2: for government. It is precarious because you never know what
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  Speaker 2: could happen that could tip things. and they want to
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  Speaker 2: be able to deliver on a mandate that's going to
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  Speaker 2: do everything possible to protect people from the trade war
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  Speaker 2: and protect BC jobs. I do think, you know, when
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  Speaker 2: it comes to the ballot box question, if there were
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  Speaker 2: to be an election, I do think Trump would be
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  Speaker 2: a pretty big focus for people that are going to
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  Speaker 2: the polls because they're worried about the impact that Trump's
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  Speaker 2: attacks are having on their employment, on their jobs, on
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  Speaker 2: their businesses. And so I think, you know, that would
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  Speaker 2: be one of the questions. Who is best to proceed
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  Speaker 2: on these issues in B.C., in government, and who is
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  Speaker 2: best to stand up for B.C. during this Trump trade war?
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  Speaker 2: I think what we've seen from Carrie Lynn Finley to
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  Speaker 2: date is that the style of politics that she uses
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  Speaker 2: is Trump-style politics, and that's something that we know is
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  Speaker 2: a fairly huge turnoff for British Columbians and Canadians. And
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  Speaker 2: so that's another thing to think about when we're having
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  Speaker 2: these conversations about if an election is likely.
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  Speaker 1: And to add some perspective onto that, that I guess
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  Speaker 1: I would say is three months ago, we thought David
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  Speaker 1: Eby was done like dinner. His time as premier was
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  Speaker 1: wrapping up. Everyone was thinking, The knives are out for him.
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  Speaker 1: He's got a few months left. And one of the
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  Speaker 1: reasons he might be considering an early election is if
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  Speaker 1: he wins and calls this election early and wins amidst
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  Speaker 1: the chaos of the conservatives, that those knives would be
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  Speaker 1: dulled somewhat. I think they'd still come for him, but
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  Speaker 1: he would buy a reprieve on his own political fortunes.
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  Speaker 1: Because if you remove Trump from the equation, I did
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  Speaker 1: this analysis last night, if you remove Trump from the equation...
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  Speaker 1: And you look at the financial numbers and other numbers
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  Speaker 1: from the NDP, it is bad. I mean, it is
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  Speaker 1: a nine-year government that is in some serious trouble. And
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  Speaker 1: that's another reason why if you go now when Trump
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  Speaker 1: is the issue, you avoid having to talk about hospital
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  Speaker 1: emergency room closures and different things where it's a much
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  Speaker 1: harder discussion to do. I hate to interrupt the conversation
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  Speaker 1: with a break, but I want to just squeeze a
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  Speaker 1: break in here and then we'll keep talking about this.
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  Speaker 1: Just one quick break as we continue our discussion here.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Political Capital, free each and every day. The
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's jump right back into where we were
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  Speaker 1: on this topic. EB got asked this question in Toronto
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  Speaker 1: at the investment summit. I'm just going to play what
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  Speaker 1: he had to say about it here.
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  Speaker 2: Obviously, we'll keep all options on the table. But if
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  Speaker 2: we ever moved in that direction, it would only be
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  Speaker 2: to ensure more stability for British markets.
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  Speaker 1: All options on the table, which we've noted in the
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  Speaker 1: previous show, is a change from just a couple of
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  Speaker 1: weeks ago when this wasn't an option. And if we
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  Speaker 1: moved in this direction, Aileen, it would be about stability.
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  Speaker 1: which I think fits into some of the framing you
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  Speaker 1: were talking about there. An early attempt by the premier
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  Speaker 1: to kind of frame how he's considering this issue, at least.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, and I think that he's right that British Columbians
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  Speaker 2: want stability. I think when you talk about stability, you
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  Speaker 2: also think about what the opposite of that is, chaos.
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  Speaker 2: That's what we see coming from the parties on the
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  Speaker 2: right right now. Like that is a group of MLAs
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  Speaker 2: who are not focused on the needs of British Columbians,
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  Speaker 2: they are focused on their own internal politics and dynamics
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  Speaker 2: and drama. And so I think that EB is tapping
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  Speaker 2: into a pretty smart word there, using stability, when he's
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  Speaker 2: talking about whether or not we would need to go
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  Speaker 2: to an election. I did want to just go back
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  Speaker 2: briefly to a point you made about, you know, if
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  Speaker 2: it's not Trump, that, you know, it'd be more challenging
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  Speaker 2: for the NDP. I think, On some of these other
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  Speaker 2: topics like health care and housing, it's important to note
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  Speaker 2: that a provincial election isn't a referendum on the government.
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  Speaker 2: It is a choice on the ballot for British Columbians
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  Speaker 2: between different visions represented by the parties. So you would
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  Speaker 2: have one vision that is presented by David Eby and
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  Speaker 2: the BC NDP as one of the choices. There would
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  Speaker 2: be obviously Carolyn Findlay and the BC Conservatives represented. the
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  Speaker 2: Peter Party or whatever they are named, if they end
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  Speaker 2: up having a name.
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  Speaker 1: Which is not part of the poll. They didn't exist
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  Speaker 1: for the poll.
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  Speaker 2: Not part of the poll. And then the Greens. And
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  Speaker 2: so I think when it comes to elections, the question
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  Speaker 2: is about which of these leaders, which of these parties
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  Speaker 2: do people trust to proceed on these issues that matter
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  Speaker 2: to people? So even if it's not about Trump, if
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  Speaker 2: it's about housing or if it's about health care, for example,
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  Speaker 2: which of the leaders and which of the parties do
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  Speaker 2: British Columbians trust? I think, are best to lead on
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  Speaker 2: these issues like health care and housing. And I think
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  Speaker 2: that on those really challenging topics, which have always been
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  Speaker 2: an issue, right? There hasn't been a time where health
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  Speaker 2: care has been completely perfect. But it's not about if
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  Speaker 2: everything is all fixed. It's about do people think that
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  Speaker 2: Premier EP cares and is trying? And I think in BC,
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  Speaker 2: there have been some positive results delivered that the government
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  Speaker 2: does point to housing prices coming down, rents coming down,
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  Speaker 2: you know, more family doctors than ever. BC has, I think,
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  Speaker 2: the most doctors per person in the country. So they
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  Speaker 2: definitely have things to point to there, even though everything
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  Speaker 2: is not fixed. And again, pointing out the contrast with
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  Speaker 2: The folks on the other side, the BC Conservatives, who
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  Speaker 2: have been against basically every housing measure that government has
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  Speaker 2: brought in to try to deliver more affordable housing for people.
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  Speaker 2: And they've also specifically called out education and health care
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  Speaker 2: as ministries that would need to see spending cut in
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  Speaker 2: order to bring down the deficit.
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  Speaker 1: I agree with that. And that kind of fits into
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: that old adage that Von Palmer says that when you're
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: running in an election, and we've used it before, that
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: You don't have to be a 10 to win if
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: your opponent's a 6. You only have to be a
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  Speaker 1: 7 kind of thing. But I think we saw in
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  Speaker 1: the 2024 election a real appetite for change. That was
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  Speaker 1: a change election that people seized up at the last
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  Speaker 1: moment and didn't want to change to John Rustad. They
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: wanted a lot of change. They came very close to
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: changing government, but they didn't want to do it with
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  Speaker 1: John Rustad. And sometimes when you get a change mentality
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  Speaker 1: in an electorate at around the 10-year mark of a government,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter anymore what their vision is. People
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  Speaker 1: just want something new. And that's a dangerous time because
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  Speaker 1: sometimes the keys can be tossed to whoever happens to
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  Speaker 1: be around. And it's a lot less about who it
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  Speaker 1: is than it is about just change itself. And I
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  Speaker 1: don't know if we're there anymore. It felt like we
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  Speaker 1: were there in the last election and it didn't get there.
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  Speaker 1: And I'm not sure if we're there in... It's dulled
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  Speaker 1: a bit by the fear of Trump and change during COVID,
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  Speaker 1: change during a trade war, change during uncertain times scares
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  Speaker 1: people and they don't like... And that would certainly go
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  Speaker 1: in the NDP's favor if they went now as well.
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  Speaker 2: And that's why the use of the word stability by
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  Speaker 2: Premier Eby really stands out to me in that clip
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  Speaker 2: that you played from his press conference, because stability is also,
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  Speaker 2: you know, it's like the opposite of change. It's, you know,
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  Speaker 2: if you have one party that's really pushing for change
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  Speaker 2: and hoping that change is going to be the motivating
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  Speaker 2: factor of the ballot box, the alternative to that is stability.
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  Speaker 2: And I think, again, right now, when we have the
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  Speaker 2: President of the United States, Donald Trump, attacking Canada's economy,
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  Speaker 2: attacking BC workers, that people are looking for stability in
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  Speaker 2: a moment like this.
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  Speaker 1: All right, we're going to wrap that topic up and
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  Speaker 1: move on to our last one on the show. Sorry
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: for the somewhat unorthodox format today. We needed to get
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: this election discussion in. We've covered off what's happening today.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: We're just going to cover off one more item From yesterday,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: a major court ruling by the BC Supreme Court reported
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: first by the Vancouver Sun in which the court found
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: the BC government has been illegally compelling Canadian doctors who
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: went to medical school abroad to temporarily work in rural
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: and remote communities of the province. The court finding that
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: BC lacks the authority to force internationally trained doctors who
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: are graduating from school to work in specific communities and
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: For two to three years, in order to get a
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: residency here, it's called a return of service obligation. BC
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: has been using it since 2006, and it helps force,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: for lack of a better term, doctors into communities that
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: might not have them as kind of almost a sort
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: of a hardship clause to get people one of the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: 300 yearly residents in BC if they're not coming here
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: from a Canadian medical school. So the court yanking that away,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: putting a 60-day pause. The government... Turning around today, Health
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Minister Ravi Kalan asked pretty strong in his response. Here
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: he is on that.
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  Speaker 3: We're reviewing the ruling right now. We'll have a better
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: timeline once the legal teams have done reviewing it. But
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: the bottom line is that this program is staying. It's
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: vitally important for us as a province. And we will
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: adjust laws and rules to ensure that we're able to
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: attract doctors and ensuring that they live up to their
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: commitments if they do come to be able to work
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: in these communities. It's a vitally important program. We will
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: make changes to whatever rules need to be made in
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: order for us to continue to attract health care professionals
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: in those communities.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: It's an interesting response, Alina. It hits on a conundrum
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: government's going to have if they can't get around this.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: But unfortunately for them, the issue at play here is
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the Constitution and human rights was cited by the court.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how you legislate around that without
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: notwithstanding clauses and things like that. But the government kind
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: of squeezed between it needs this program, clearly. Mm-hmm. But
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: it's going to have to deal with this court ruling
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: in some way. But a very strong response from the
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: health minister, I thought, to that there.
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  Speaker 2: It's a strong response. And let's remember what the goal
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  Speaker 2: here is of the program. The goal is to ensure
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  Speaker 2: that communities in rural areas have doctors. That is an
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  Speaker 2: important and worthy goal. And so I think government is
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: trying a lot of different things in order to attract
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: and retain doctors, including doctors in getting them to these
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: rural communities. I do think the government is going to
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: have a difficult time with legislation on this because of
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: the court ruling and because it's in the constitution. We
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: have seen other provinces try to solve similar challenges in
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: other ways. So another example that they could explore is
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: connecting it to training. So if you're a doctor trained
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: in BC, maybe you need to spend a certain amount
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: of time serving here. And if you have been trained
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: in BC, you sort of owe the province because you've
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: benefited from the education that you received in the province.
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  Speaker 2: So governments elsewhere in Canada are looking at ways to
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  Speaker 2: incentivize doctors to work in BC and perhaps trying to
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  Speaker 2: keep the doctors there. So I think that may be
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: a more effective route and easier to look at incentives
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: for these doctors rather than the legislation route, but certainly
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  Speaker 2: a strong response from Minister Callon, who seems to be
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  Speaker 2: seized with the challenge.
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  Speaker 1: Another example, though, I think of, like, there's 300 yearly
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: residencies for medical schools in BC, and the Premier will
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: be this morning talking about the new family doctor component
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: at SFU. Man, we need more of those. If we
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: have too many doctors who want to be trained from
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: abroad and in Canada, and we can't train them, that's
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: a fundamental failure of our education system.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Let's get more doctors, you know, and they're sitting there
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: getting rejected to practice in BC. And then we complain,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: we have a doctor shortage. Like someone needs to go
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: give UBC a shake or something to kind of get
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: this going. But yeah, maybe the premier will get asked
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: that this morning too, because the fundamental issue just seems
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to be, we don't have the capacity to put the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: people who want to be doctors into the doctor system
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: in BC and then get them out into the community.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: And that, that must be frustrating. for government to look
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: at that and others to look at that too and say,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: we got to come up with this cockamamie system to
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: force different people in to give them one of the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: very few prized little residency spots in the province.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's an important question. I think it
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: likely will come up this morning. I am looking forward
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: to hearing more details out of this announcement because it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: a pretty significant one for the new health minister, Minister Kowloon.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: And he's from the region. He sees and hears the
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: challenges around health care in Surrey. And we know there's
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: been a ton of work put in by government to
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: improve health care in Surrey. There the new hospital underway,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: various upgrades at Surrey Memorial, the SFU Medical School, as
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: you mentioned, which are all like really massive investments in
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: health care in the region. And so I think we'll
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: hear more on next steps today, an important announcement in Surrey.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Tons of stuff on the political agenda here. Aileen, thanks
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: for being here. Thanks for walking us through it this
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: morning and for being our correspondent at UBCM. Thanks for
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: being here.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Thanks, Rob.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. We'll be back tomorrow with all
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the latest in BC politics. If you get election fever,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: avoid the super spreader event that is UBCM. Don't pass
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: it to your colleagues. Be considerate. Be considerate. Take something.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Lie down for a bit. We'll see you tomorrow.