Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / UDIA NT Branch President Hermanus Leow on the Government's planned land release in the coming years - is it realistic?

Transcript

UDIA NT Branch President Hermanus Leow on the Government's planned land release in the coming years - is it realistic? · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On Monday, the Chief Finister, Michael Gunner obviously delivered his
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: year ahead speech committing to deliver more permanent jobs and
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: housing in the Northern Territory.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: I know that probably most.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Of you didn't hear that speech, so we'll just play
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit for you right now.
• 0:16
  Speaker 3: We need more homes in Katherine In, Darwin, norm boy In,
• 0:19
  Speaker 3: Tenant and Palmerston. Our commissioners have reported to me they
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: forecast more than thirty billion dollars of capital investment over
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: five years studying this year. That's from the private sector, gas,
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: major infrastructure projects and defense. We must meet future growth
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: by acting now. We are working to bring forward residential
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: land releases in Holts and Kowandi, Kilgaroth, Analyis, Katherine East
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: and Pico Road and Tenant. We can only end the
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: five Fox era if developers commit to building homes and
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: banks back them in. We will keep pushing out the land.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: We're going to market twenty twenty four of Holts and Kwandi.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: We're bringing this forward from twenty twenty six. Big things
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: are happening. Get your skates on.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So that was the Chief Minister earlier in the week
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: delivering that year ahead speech, and I am joined on
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  Speaker 1: the line right now by the Urban Development Institute of
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Australia's Northern Territory president hermanas Low.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Good morning to you, Hermanus.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: Good morning Katie. How are you?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Really well, lovely to have you on the show.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Is there land well outside of of Lee Point and
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: other areas at this point where some of these this
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: land can actually be released?
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Look the what's the stifferiness of talking about at Houlston Kulundi,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: which is an area currently undergoing the planning sort of
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: preparing the planning, the area plan for that. Yeah, and
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: they prepare an infrastructure plan for that as well. So
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: so from UDA perspective, were excited that it's the departments
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: and the chiffiness is looking at making sure the infrastructure plan,
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: making sure that the planning is there to support future development.
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: But the worst thing happens we're running out of land. Yes,
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: that's said. They saw a lot of land in the
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: hands of the velopers. Obviously you've got all of the COOLi,
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: you've got Northwest, you've got lead points, you've got the
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: whole bunch of development happening in Boltera Road and Berima,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: and there's other developments out there. As well, like the
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: hypoax stall in the cards, there's Sarah West is still
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: in the cards, So there's still quite a few parts
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: of the land available. But what we don't know as
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: the UDIA is what the plan for Halton Pool on is.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: So what is the turn off rates, what is the
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: partner working on in terms of economic reform alpinose areas
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: in terms of upsake. So that's the one thing that
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: we have UDO is missing, and developers specifically is it
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: don't have the information in terms of demand forecast. But
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: as soon as we have that we can make investment decisions.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because I was going to say, realistically, if you
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: don't actually you know, looking at the demand forecast, I
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: would suspect that you'd really have to kind of have
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: an idea on that before you do release that additional land.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Look, and as a hard place to forecast demand
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: because it is so fluctuating down south, we've got you know, large,
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: very large uptake of land and very large number of transactions.
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: It's easier to for us because you've got you've got
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: a good base of which you can forcus up here.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: It's hard if we don't have the necessary number of
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: sailed number of settlements, number of recisions in each of
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: the each of the price points that were trying to achieve.
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: So I think that's another very important distinction as well
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: as while there's quite a lot of land in the
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: hands developers, it's always important to understand that there's different
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: price points at which land are being sold for. So
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: are we providing affordable land? Are we providing the right
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: type of land? Are we providing the land and the
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: right location. That's always important to understand as well. So look, yeah, look,
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: we're we're excited about what the achievements is doing. I
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: think what we really want to see is what is
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: infrastructure plans are going to look like, what the area
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: plans for Lticle one is going to look like?
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  Speaker 1: Because has any of that been done yet at this point,
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  Speaker 1: because I guess he made it sound on Monday we're
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: all guns blazing, it's going to be happening in the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: next two years. But has any of that background work
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: happened yet?
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  Speaker 4: Look, it's our understanding that's commenced. The extent of it
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: and the completion of the dates of those are not
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: entirely across. But look two years away. Yeah, it's a push,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: it's a lot of work to be done before then.
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  Speaker 4: But also I mean, you know, let's look at it statistically.
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: If if Halton Kandy is released in the market for
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: developers to especially interest and then to tend on, but
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: at the time of the developers selected Embard, the time
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: to contracts signed, the development agreement to signed, then developers
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: will have to engage a design team as well. As
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: it goes through. Planning still has to go get a contractor.
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  Speaker 4: But time the first dawn key is going to go,
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  Speaker 4: it's going to be twenty six seven, you know, so
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  Speaker 4: you've got you've got a lot of planning to do
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: before the first home is built in Hulton Quantity. Yeah right,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: I'm excited to see that the Chief Minister and the
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: partners are actually doing that work upfront. Was there something
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: that we you've been advocating force make sure that your plans,
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: your area plans are supported by infratructure plans, to make
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  Speaker 4: sure there's sufficient overlaid. Yeah, for the developers can understand
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  Speaker 4: what you are planning in future and we can have
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  Speaker 4: our investments for portfolio ready so that we can support
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: that development.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: So right, so even you know he's saying by twenty
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: twenty four.
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  Speaker 1: But the reality of it is that you know, by
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the time you start turning those houses over, it is
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: going to take a bit longer than that.
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, By the time the time you've got your
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: contract with everyone on board, it takes two years before
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: you know, from ye to actually having key indorsed. Two years.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: Please you know now her Man.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: As you mentioned, zicol Lee, North Crest, a few other
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: areas where there is you know, there is actually land
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: there ready to be developed. What's holding things up?
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: Well, a couple of things right now. So last year,
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: with the federal grants and the local grants that was available,
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: there was a big surge of land transaction plans, land sales.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: We experienced tween twenty and twenty twenty one, the strongest
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: sales and nanty that we've had for years, stronger even
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: and just as the as we came off impacts similar
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: to back then. But since the middle of June last year,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: when though all those grants ended, the markets really slowed down.
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: So our land transactions that's really slowed down. So as
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: a developer, you know, we forecast because bear in mind,
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: so by the time we make an investment decision, it
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: takes us twelve months to get the product on market
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: to physical title property, and in that twelve month the
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: market can chip. So what are we forecasting in terms
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: of an accurate uptake rate for twelve months from now?
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: And I guess that's where developers are struggling a little
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: bit the moment as well. We're not entirely seeing that
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: big demand of purchases coming through. Yes we know that
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: they're Yes, we're seeing the inquiries, but we're not seeing
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: land going to contract. And that's probably what a lot
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: of developers are has been done now. We are a
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: lot of those developers are working with government and are
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: working underground leases and they've got certain development time flames.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: That said, they are pushing ahead as far as account
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: I know, so Colea's Aspire for instance, we are pushing
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: really fast there to try and get land as much
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: as possible. The problem is supply of material for the
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: availability resources, getting workers on site is the most difficult
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: thing at the moment to achieve. So we had a
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: month last year where we had to shut the sight
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: because our subcontractors were refusing to get vaccinated.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the thing.
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  Speaker 4: All these issues contribute.
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  Speaker 2: So in taking all of that into account.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, is there a need for additional housing or
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: should we be waiting for more of a population increase
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: before we sort of saturate the market or release more land.
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: What I well, what I will say is that I'm
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: sure that the Department and the Minister's Office has got
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: that forecast in terms of demand, that that population growth
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: demand that's coming. I think we as an industry is
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: stot lacking that information, and then we'd be really excited
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: to see what the forecast is in terms of population
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: and that would really give us some substance in terms
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: of how we progress development. But I don't think we
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: should ever sit stall and not do anything. So even
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: if the even if the departments are just getting hold
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: in Kuwania ready for release, that's enough. That's good because
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: it means that the infrastructure plans means that the statutory
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: of planning requirements, they are thought of, they are enacted
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: so that by the time we start seeing a spike
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: in demand, developers can get in the developers concept, it
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: can start developing. But what we don't want to do
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  Speaker 4: is we don't want to We don't want to take
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  Speaker 4: away from the current developers at end dow On we
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: don't want to see a situation what's doctor into the
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: hyperduch we're here. See Pitt was heavily involved, made good
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: good development grounds and through there and then Securly was
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: released and they were unable to sell those properties and
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: effectively they they they've now left time. Yeah right, I
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: don't want to be called massatuation again. So it's a
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: fine balance. It's a very fine balance to walk. And
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  Speaker 4: as I said, demand forecasting and the inty is very
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: hard because we have a fluctuating market, a very fluctuating market.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Well, her Manus, I really appreciate your time this morning.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: I think it.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: You know, it gives us that bit of perspective and
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: a bit of a better understanding when we talk about
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that land release, like that forecasting that needs to go
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: into it as well before you can really sort of
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: you know, get the rubber on the on the road
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: for want of a better word.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, Yeah, Well, Katie, thank you for having me.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it, really appreciate it. Thanks so much, her Manus.