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The Barbell Strategy: Navigating Tech Fatigue and Energy Peaks · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:03
  I am your host , Barnaby Buckner , and I am so glad you could join me this morning .
• 0:08
  It is currently 5 am on Thursday , March 5th , 2026 , out here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:14
  While many are still hitting the snooze button , the markets are wide awake and definitely keeping us on our toes .
• 0:20
  Right now , we are looking at a market that seems calm on the surface , but underneath , there is some serious movement going on .
• 0:28
  The S&P 500 , or the SPY as we like to call it , is sitting around the 6,865 mark .
• 0:36
  It had a little bounceback of 0.8 percent yesterday , but the futures this morning are looking a bit jumpy .
• 0:44
  We are seeing a massive shift where folks are moving their money out of the highflying tech stocks and into the ' real economy' sectors .
• 0:52
  Let's look at the leaderboard .
• 0:54
  The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE , is absolutely crushing it , up nearly 25 percent so far this year .
• 1:03
  Why ?
• 1:04
  Well , it is mostly due to some very tense geopolitical issues that are affecting oil supply .
• 1:10
  Materials and Industrials are also doing great , with XLB up about 18.7 percent and XLI up 17 percent .
• 1:19
  On the flip side , the tech sector is feeling some ' AI fatigue .
• 1:23
  ' The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLK , is down about 5.4 percent this year as investors start to worry about the massive spending by companies like Meta and Alphabet .
• 1:36
  Even the banks are feeling the pinch , with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , down nearly 6 percent .
• 1:44
  On the macroeconomic front , it is a bit of a tugofwar .
• 1:47
  Inflation slowed to 2.4 percent in January , but we are worried it might speed back up .
• 1:54
  Brent crude oil is sitting high at 81 to 82 dollars a barrel because of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran , which has essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz .
• 2:06
  The Federal Reserve has the interest rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent , and while they might pause soon , they are definitely keeping a ' hawkish ' eye on things .
• 2:18
  In better news , today’s jobless claims came in at 212,000 , which is better than expected , showing that our labor market is still quite tough despite slower economic growth .
• 2:30
  The big news driving the volatility is the war in the Middle East .
• 2:34
  Strikes and retaliatory attacks have pushed the VIX , our ' fear gauge , ' up to 23.57 .
• 2:42
  However , there is a glimmer of hope !
• 2:45
  A report from the New York Times says Iranian leadership has reached out to President Trump to talk about a ceasefire .
• 2:51
  This gave the Nasdaq a muchneeded floor recently .
• 2:55
  Also , keep an eye out for a new 15 percent global tariff coming later this week , which is making companies move toward domestic goods .
• 3:04
  Turning to individual companies , Broadcom , ticker AVGO , is the star of the show this morning .
• 3:12
  They reported fantastic earnings last night , and the stock is up 6.6 percent in premarket trading .
• 3:18
  Kroger reported an earnings beat this morning , but their revenue was a bit light , so the stock is down about 1 percent .
• 3:26
  The big one to watch is Costco , ticker COST .
• 3:30
  They report after the bell today , and with the stock already up 17 percent this year , everyone is watching their membership growth .
• 3:38
  We have also got Marvell Technology , ticker MRVL , reporting tonight with some big swings expected .
• 3:45
  So , what should you do with your portfolio ?
• 3:47
  I am recommending a ' barbell ' strategy .
• 3:50
  On one side , stay defensive .
• 3:53
  Costco is a great ' flighttoquality ' play because people never stop needing those bulk groceries , and their membership model is super steady .
• 4:01
  On the other side , you need a hedge .
• 4:04
  The Energy Sector , XLE , is a smart move as long as there is trouble in the Middle East , think of it as protection for your portfolio using companies like ExxonMobil .
• 4:15
  For growth , Broadcom is proving it can actually turn AI excitement into real money , making it a bit more stable than some other volatile tech names .
• 4:24
  If you want to spread your risk globally , look at the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF , ticker VT , to catch some of the action in places like Japan .
• 4:35
  Finally , if you are worried about a recession , the 20plus year Treasury bond ETF , TLT , is looking attractive as insurance .
• 4:43
  The bottom line is : do not put all your eggs in the tech basket right now .
• 4:48
  Balance those AI leaders with energy and materials to stay afloat during these choppy waters .
• 4:54
  That is all for this morning’s Spy Trader .
• 4:56
  I am Barnaby Buckner , stay savvy out there , and I will see you in a few hours !