Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Update with Bill Barnwell

Transcript

NFL Update with Bill Barnwell · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. The podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: six five, part of the Action Network. I'm Shadmiman, chief
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. As I've said, as
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I said last episode, we are full force Football every
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday until the end of the Super Bowl. We
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: will add the Sunday night shows starting with Week one
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: of NFL season. Next week we kick off the division
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: previews with about five six seven weeks until the start
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Huge show today ESPN NFL Superstar
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Analyst Bill Barnwell is going to come on the show
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: in a few minutes. But first, my bff, my companion,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Mike Padre professional better Simon Hunter, Hello, sowing.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: In, Hello Chad. I actually recently heard from our three
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: female fans we have. You wouldn't believe we have three
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: fans at our female and they all love you. Chad.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Apparently I was a little too mean to you on
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: our podcast a couple of weeks ago, and I explained him,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: it's just that I miss you. Like if I had
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: to put an overrunner on Chad, I'd put his overrunner
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: at his age when he'd passed away at like one ten,
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: and I'd probably still tick the over Chad. People don't
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: get at Chad. You have what like thirty beats per minute.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: You live off grains and nuts. Like literally, if we
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: could go back in time, if this was nineteen forty,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Chad's the type of guy you drop off in some
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: field in Nazi Germany and he would survive off a
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: bag of rice for about six years, and he would
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: kill thousands of Germans and they would never know his
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Chad is the perfect type for a sniper. He's got
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: low he's got he doesn't eat anything, he's got a
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: low heartbeat. He is literally a killer. People don't get
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: that about Chad. So me, I'm the other way. Like,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: if I got dropped off in Germany, I'd last, I
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: don't know, maybe two days off that bag of rice
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: at all. I wouldn't been a lay in a field
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: for multiple months. But Chad here, Chad's a killer. So
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: people very sensitive. Chad to me, make a fun of
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: your age. Chad's gonna live forever. People, I'm like my
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: over unders eighty. Chad's won ten. So just relax, people, relax.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Me and Chad love each other.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We oh my god, we so love each other. But
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I think my feeling on this is that people people
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: always assume because I'm smiling and happy that I'm a
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: nice guy. At the end of the day, I'm just not.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: You're a killer. Chad's a killer people.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I am one hundred percent of sniper, and I'm sure
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: our sponsors at Bet three six five are thrilled to
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: be associated with. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: probably presented presented by BET three six five, the world's
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: get BET three six five's exclusive sign up offered bet
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: one dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: in bets must be twenty one where older offer is
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa. Gambling
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: problem call or text one eight hundred gambler. I promised
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the Man, the Myth, the Legend, Bill Barnwell, the most
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: popular writer at ESPN, and so popular they had to
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: put his column behind a paywall. And he drives so
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: much money because people have to pay to sign up
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: to read his stuff, and it's brilliant. I can tell
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: you when I was running ESPN dot com get Away
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: for Monday mornings because I knew our traffic would pop
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: because as soon as Barnwell filed, we put on the
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: front page. It was a meteoric explosion. Barnwell, welcome back
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: to the Bard.
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: Hey buddy, how's it going.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: I would like to get that in writing for contract
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: negotiations as I can.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Well listen, I'm here for you. I'm big, I'm your
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: biggest agent. Like, whatever you want, I'm gonna give it
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to you. But all I ask is that today you
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: give us your best when it comes to the NFL
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: because the season is fast approaching. There are so many
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: great storylines right now. We have a massive script that
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell put together. Before we even get to it,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I know he wants me to talk about, like the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: podcast you did with Mina. I texted you about a
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: month ago. I saw you and Mina on the NFL
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Show in the afternoon. I'm like, the fuck is going
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: on here? But I was I was begging people to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: put Barnwell and Mina on TV. And now it's like,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: you guys are running the show. You have inherited the earth.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: It's fantastic. Before we get to that, you just had
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: a column come out and it's sort of highlighted the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: people that have the most on the line. And you
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: had done this last year and you talked about Jalen Hurts,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts you said, if he has good year,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: he makes one hundred million dollars guarantee. Turns out he
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: made one hundred and ten. You WoT a guy in there,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Jets GM, Joe Douglas. I did, who has the most
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: on the line. And I don't think we can talk
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: about the NFL right now without talking about the Jets
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers. Today, the news is that he gave
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: up thirty five million in salary so they could build
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: around him. Give me your logic on Joe Douglas.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: Joe Douglas has essentially the same record after four years
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: as AGM that Dave Gettleman had when Dave Getleman was
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: fired unceremoniously. Ceremoniously, I think there were actual parades in
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: New York in the streets when Dave Geedelman was fired
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: by the way his team was hit the playoffs the
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: next year, but they for the story for a different day.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: So Joe Douglas does not have a good record after
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: four years. He drafted Zach Wilson, who is the maybe
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: one of the worst draft picks up the last twenty
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: years when you consider he was the second overall pick
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: and was not playable halfway through his second season in
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: the NFL. He also drafted two Rookies of the Year
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: last year on the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: So we know he's capable of something terrible and capable
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: of something great. But as we get to this year
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: where expectations for the Jets are quite high, they think
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: we can all agree that Jets have and Jets fans
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: certainly have lofty expectations after not making the playoffs since
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: twenty ten?
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: Who gets to blame?
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: Who gets blamed here when things go wrong? Let's say
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: the Jets finished seven and ten again. Is that going
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: to be blamed on Aaron Rodgers, who is the Hall
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: of Fame quarterback with a close to impeccable resume.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: He'll get some of the blame, but he's going to
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: be around in twenty twenty four, especially after we saw
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: the terms of his post recent extension. Is it going
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: to be Robert Sala, who built a great defense, who
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: arrived a year later than Joe Douglass. No, it's not
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: going to be Robert Sala, because I think Robert Sala's
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: defense is not going to be the problem with this
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: football team. If things go south, it might be the
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: guy who traded a lot for Aaron Rodgers when there
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: were no other teams in the negotiation for Aaron Rodgers
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: dig it in and take a pay cut, which is
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: great and obviously major progress, But the guy whose draft
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: picks that been either incredible or really bad, where it's
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: not just Zack Wilson, but it's Elijah Moore who was traded,
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: Denzel Mims, who has just traded the second round pick.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: His top one hundred picks have either been total booms
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: or absolute bus And so if anyone's going to take
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: the blame from a frustrating year, you think it'd be
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: Joe Douglas. But if things go right and Joe Douglas
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: nations to the postseason and the Jets make a deep
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: playoff front, Joe Douglas is going to be GM of
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: the Year. He's going to be lauded, going to gain
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: at an extension. So he has a lot writing to
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: be on twenty twenty three.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Right now, Simon and I have been on the fade
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the Jets. Jets their season win total nine and a half.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I think the Patriots could be better. I think the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Dolphins could be better. I think the Bills could be better.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Jets make the playoffs because I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: don't think they're going to come in higher than fourth
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: in their division unless all four teams make the playoffs
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: in the AFC East. Simon, I don't think i've asked
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: you this question. Do you think the Jets make the playoffs?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: And then I'd like to get Bill's answer.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that feels right. Nine and seven I mean ten
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: and seven, I should say nowadays, right with the seventeen.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: It's just they're right there. Nine and eight. Ten and
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: seven just feels the right number for the Jets. It's
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: last year. They got really lucky, right. They played a
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: bunch of backup quarterbacks, They had a bunch of things
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: to break their way. Even when Zach Wilson was terrible,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: they still had nice matchups for that defense. Right, if
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: you go back and look through your schedule, they're in
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: every game just because that defense was so good. So
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: the Rogers part's really interesting, where they don't really need
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the MVP Rodgers. This is probably the first time in
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: his career he set into a situation here Whi's truly
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: not on him. If if this defense can do what
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: they do and if he can just produce again, you're
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: his season last year, how terrible it was. That'd be
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: one of the best seasons ever for a Jets quarterback
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: in their history. That's how bad the quarterback play has
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: been for the New York Jets. So the Rogers thinks
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: so interesting where I was not shocked he took the
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: pay cut, but I just thought how cool that was
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: where he's literally saying, I'm ring chasing, like I got
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: the money already. If I can give them this money
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: back that Joe Douglas can get me more weapons, that's
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: a big deal. And I know the Joe Douglass pressure
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: is fair. I think he was He's a really smart guy,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: like he was here at the Eagles with Howie. A
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: lot of moves how credit to him or where they
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: were really smart draft picks, really smart moves. He's had some,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: for sure, some big misses, but I feel like he'll
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: have a two year no matter what. Even if they're
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: not great this year, maybe they missed the playoffs, I
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: feel like they'll give them what He'll give them one
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: more year with Joe, But I feel like he nailed
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: a chat. If it really is playoff for a bus
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: for this team, it's all there. Like Rodgers, maybe you
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: can have the excuse of oh, it's a new situation,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: but the offense here is only true weakness Rogers is
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: gonna have this year. Is this offensive line compared to
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: the Packers is bad? Like this is not. This is
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: probably the worst offensive line he's had in the last
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: five six years. So to me, that's where it's really
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: interesting with this Jets team, where all the six positions
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: are good, right, They have Bracedole running back, they have
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: incredible wide receivers. I get all that, all that hype.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: That's the big question mark to me is that offensive line.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know how he's gonna deal with having that
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: kind of offensive line. So that's what I'm excited to
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: watch this preseason is how he does behind the front line.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: Let me lay out. Let me lay out why I
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: think the Jets go under nine and a half wins
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: and why I think they're more likely to miss the
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: playoffs than make the playoffs. So let's start with the
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: defensive side of the ball. That's the strength of this team.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: That's the thing.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: If you can you know, there's no you don't have
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: to project them to get better. You can count on
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: them being just as good as they were a year ago.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: But they were the healthiest defensive football last season, the
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: healthiest defense, and they've already lost one starter for the
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: entire season in Chuck Clark, who they traded with the
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: Ravens to acquire, who is going to be plugged in
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: as one of their starting safeties. We know historically health
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: does not sustain. We know teams who make dramatic leaps
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: on defense the way the Jets did last year typically
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: gives some of those games back the following season. When
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: I looked at it, I think the Jets protected to
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: be somewhere around the twelfth.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: Best defense in football.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: So, okay, Aaron Rodgers can still be you know, hold
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: up his under the bark, and that's still going to
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: be a playoff team. Good defense, better offense should still
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: be nine ten wins. I think that's fair. But again,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: I think there's a scenario where things don't go south,
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: or things do go south, and look at the offense.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: Simon mentioned the offensive line.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: Legitimate concerns here at tackle, where you have McKay Beckton,
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: who's played one game over the last two years, Duane Brown,
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: who's in his late thirties and coming off of an injury.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: They both want to play left tackle. Neither of them
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: wants to play right tackle. One of them is going
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: to have to Billy Turners behind them. Solid depth tackles
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: that helped, but they wanted to get a tackle year's draft.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: I know that there's been some indications otherwise. Think it's
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: telling that the day after the draft they signed Billy Turner,
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: which tells you they were going to play on drafting
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: a tackle, and when they didn't have to sign a
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: veteran to fill in there, Elijah Vera Tucker very promising,
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: you know, guard coming off of an injury as well.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: While line is a concern, get to the receivers. Okay,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: well you have Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is great, a
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: super talented player. Was really good last year with Zach Wilson.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: Can only imagine how good he's going to be with
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers. But if there's one problem Garrett Wilson has,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: it's drops. And if there's one problem Aaron Rodgers has
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: in terms of people on the football field, it's with
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: young receivers who drop passes. It took time for Devonte
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: Adams to develop that rhythm with Rogers that he had
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: later in his career. Took him five years to have
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: a one thousand yard season. So you know, I think
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: Garrett Wilson has super high upside, but I think there's
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: also a chance where he doesn't get off to the
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: right foot with Rogers. They struggle, there's not consistency. And
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: then you look up the other receivers in that receiving corps.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: You look at Randall Cobb, at Allens. When one or
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: book those guys are on the field. Last year, Aaron
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: Rodgers's QBR dropped by twenty three points. He was twenty
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: three points better without those guys on the football field,
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: which tells me having them there in terms of having
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: some familiarity is good, but they're not great receivers. Aaron
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: Rodgers was better with guys he had no experience with
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: as opposed to those guys. So okay, lead them aside
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: receivers upside, But some questions you go to the running
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: back situation. Reese Hall is coming off with torn acl
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: we know historically there's plenty of running backs where it
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: takes a year for those guys to be the player
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: they were a year ago. So again I see the
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: upside with Reese Hall. I think he can be, you know,
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: legitimately the best running back in football things break right
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: this year. He could also be a guy where it's
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: kind of like JK. Dobbins where he's i know, on
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: IR for a few weeks, he's not healthy, he's getting
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: ten carries a game. That's why I think the move
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: we've heard about today where they're going to bring in
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Dalvin Cook for a for a meeting is so valuable
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: because they need a guy who the first month, first
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: six weeks of the year can be the guy who
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: is you know, shouldering the majority of the workload, with
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: Bristolt being kind of the one began. As the year
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: goes on, Preese Hal taking over more of the workload.
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: And then on top of all that, guys, here's the
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: part that I think is so fascinating. That schedule for
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: the Jets the first six weeks of the season. I'm
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: going to bring it up. I mean, we're gonna look
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: it up on my computer here on the podcast. The
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: Jets play to begin this year at the Bills, they're
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: at the Cowboys, they host the Patriots, they host the Chiefs,
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: they're at the Broncos, and they host the Eagles. Before
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: they're yes, they go three and three, they're in great shape.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: They go two and four, they go one and five.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: They get that adversity from the New York media, from
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: their fans of we thought you were going to win
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: a super Bowl and you started one and five. There
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: might be a chance that that sidelines their entire season.
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: That could be it before they even get to their
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: Week seven buy. So I think lots of concerns for
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: the Jets, and plenty of reasons for me to believe
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: I would rather go under nine and a half here.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: Than go over.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, that's why Chad.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Brought me on and said the nice things about Listen.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: My take, Jets are two and four after those first
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: six games, I've seen bigger. Yeah, And actually they're really
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: good graphic about it the other day, and they had
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: their predictions, like their model showing percentage chance to win
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: these games. Simon, you and I both we've talked about it,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: even for week one. We're buyers on the Patriots right now.
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: One more thing, did you guys see who the offensive
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: coordinator for the Jets is? Yes, it's Daniel Hackett, the
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: guy Hackett, the guy who Sean Payton came out today
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: and basically buried in a coaching ditch with his comments. Yes,
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: he's the guy who's running the offense for the Jets.
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: That also seems like legitimate concern. And you brought up
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: the Patriots chat and I think Bill O'Brien, the offensive
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: coordinator with New England now is going to be a
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: significant upgrade on Matt Patricia and Joe Jents. Not as big,
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: but almost as make him an upgrade as Aaron Rodgers
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: is going to be on Zach Wilson.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, we've talked about that. And I'm skipping around
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: in our in our rundown here. Apologies, Matt Mitchell, But
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: we like the Patriots not just because of Bill O'Brien,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: but because of their defensive line. Dig In, Simon, tell
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: me why we like the Patriots so much and how
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: we're thinking about them for even Week one against the Eagles.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Just honestly, it's pretty value based.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: We're one of the bigger shows on Where's the valuet
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: in each division. And last year we talked at nas
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: him about the Jaguars. Right mayre the Jaguars where it's
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: twelve to one, we goave him out eleven, ten to one,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: nine to one. Then literally before the season kicked off,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: he gave him out eight to one. It's kind of
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: the same thing of this Patriots team is just left
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: for dead. The public is totally done with this team.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Last year. They really disappointed I think a lot of
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: their own fans and just people across the league where
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: the mostique has gone. Now Belichick, it feels like it's
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: really is gone. Where I never thought we would see
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: the day where that Patriots fans would be like, you know,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: maybe as a time for a change. It's like, what,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: like that's how you just know you're such a spoiled
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: fan base where they can't they still can't see that
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Bill is still top three defensive line of football. So
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: to me, we have a team that was still really
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: strong defensively last year. They just had to play it
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: out right. They sucked for the first maybe couple weeks defensively.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: By week eight, Bill had them all exactly where you
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: need to have them at right. They finished really strong.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: The offense you touched on it. Bill O'Brien is such
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: a huge upgrade. Like this man. You can say whatever
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: you want about him as a gym. He was a
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: train wreck in Houston. Offensively, he was really smart. When
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: you go back and watch that, he always constantly put
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Watson in the best position to win, Like that was
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: his whole thing was figure out what his his strengths were,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: and then he really maximized it. I feel the same
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: thing with this team this year. Where do I really
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: think the Patriots are gonna win this division?
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: No?
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Right, I think I don't think any person would there.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: They're by far the fourth team in this division. Right,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: I still have the Jets power raider over then Miami's
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: defense and offense is truly light years ahead of them
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: talent wise, Like they just both side the ball are
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: really good. So to me, at plus eight hundred, that's
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: an inflated number just because of public perception and this
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Jets love, right, the Jets, They've bumped this number up
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: way high. So when I model this out, this should
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: be closer to a five hundred. That means we're getting
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred of free value right now in this
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: Patriots team. That's crazy number. That is a crazy number
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: to think for this division. So to me, it's not
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: that I think, yeah, you gotta go out and gotta
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: bet the Patriots. It's more that the Patriots are way
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: closer to this Jets team and this Miami team than
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: people perceives. It's not as far off as people are
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: making out to be. Just because they have Nac at quarterback,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: they don't have the Aaron Rodgers. They'll two quarterback. And
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: that really is although public really cares about you, Kevn.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: They walk into a sportsbook to make a bet, are
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: they either gonna bet on Tua or Rodgers? Are they
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: gonna sit there and be like, you know what, I'm
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: gonna put this money on Mac Jones. And that's what
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to get you. Now, Look, just don't think
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: you're just bet on. You've been on a really smart
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: defensive mind in Belichick, with a really good defense that
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: should be much better this year with Bill O'Brien. So
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: I'm with Bill here, Like he said it perfectly, Bill
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: O'Brien is a huge upgrade for this Patriots team. So
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: that's what people are gonna give a shit chat in
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: mid season when the Patriots are terrible. It's a value
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: based bet. We're just talking they they shouldn't be plus
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: eight hundred. This number is totally inflated. So that's that's
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: definitely those it really pops out this offseason.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: There's no question.
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: Two things come to mind for me talking about the
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: Patriots stand out Number one in terms of Bill O'Brien.
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: I think so when you made the perfect point about
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: how they Bill O'Brien built an offense around his quarterback strengths,
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: and that's something the Patriots didn't do with Mac Jones
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: last year. They changed the way they ran the football.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: They went to his own base scheme as opposed to
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: a power based scheme, which a Patriots have done for
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: twenty years with success, just because they thought it was
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: trendy and frankly was already behind the times when they
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: made the switch. They went out and brought a Mac
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Jones who was in credible throwing RPOs at Alabama. His
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: video game numbers like average more than eleven yards per attempt,
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: completing more than ninety percent of his passes, and those
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: are easy completions, but those are good. You want easy
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: completions for your offense. And for your quarterback, especially when
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: he's struggling. And I had Ali Connelly who broke this
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: down in his substack on my podcast. Patriots were in
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: three downfield RPOs all season last year. Like it was
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: a staggering just just they ran a couple screens every
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: tagged down to their run game, but they did not
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: make RPOs a focal point of their offense or even
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: a meaningful part of their offense. Bill O'Brien coming from Alabama,
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: where they still run a ton of RPOs, is going
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: to bring that into this offense.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: It's not gonna be.
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: You're not gonna run thirty of them a game or anything.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: But hey, here's five easy completions.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: It gets you on schedule.
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: Keep Mac Jones's continence going and protect him and build
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: up what he does. I think that's just the simplest
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: logical thing to do. And the other thing I want
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: to point out is, you know, talking about real results
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: based analysis and how you feel about a team. Patriots
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: were eight nine last year and they lost two games
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: in December that were they've probably had a ninety no
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: probably one game had like a ninety five percent win expectancy.
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: The other one probably about a a eighty percent win
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: expectancy or seventy half percent win expectancy. They lose to
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: the Raiders a fourth and ten and then get up
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: a whole drive for a score, and then the Jacobe
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: Myers thing happened, which is the disaster of all disasters.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: That's not the thirty flips a pack Stanford band nowhere
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: in side, it's clicked on.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: Oh no, incredible.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Taylor Jones takes it in and wins the game for
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: the Rearers.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: And then the Bengals game, they get a fumble against
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: the Bengals. They have first and goal inside the two minutes,
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: inside of two minutes down I believe four, either three
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: or four, and Rodre Stewinson fumbles and gives the ball
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: back to the Bengals. So if they win either of
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: those games, they have a winning record. If they win
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: both those games, they're in the post season. We're having
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: an entirely different conversation about the Patriots because of those
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: two games that went disastersly at the end. And I know, hey,
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: it happens, and you don't want to bet on teams
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: who make a habit of screwing things up in the
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: final two minutes of games. But we have of enough
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: bestample with the Patriots and Bill Belichick that I think
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: they're not going to have those lapses again in twenty
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: twenty three.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Let me quickly remind people that we've talked about game
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Time so often on this show. It's the fastest growing
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: ticketing app in the US. I love game Time, honestly,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I use it all the time. You guys heard me
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: talk about how I used it to buy Mariner's tickets
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: when I was on vacation with my family. If you're
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: looking to get out to a pro er college game
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: this week, or even a concert, game Time has amazing
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: last minute deals on tickets to all of these. I'm
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: checking game Time right now from our Action Network studio
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: here in New York City. I can get into the
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: first Place Super Team New York Liberty twenty seven bucks. Wow,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: all the costs. That's right, Bill, It's exciting to where
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: you live. Download the game Time app, get out and
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: have some fun this week. You deserve it, and you
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Terms apply. Just download the app, enter code favorites for
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Download game Time today last minute tickets low.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: It is price guaranteed bill. We're about to enter the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: NFL season. Your pieces, and I say this with all sincerity,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not joking around, are so detailed, so in depth.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I know how much work you put into them.
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: Too long?
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: It is, no, They're not too long for me. But
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: you know I'm Airudyite and so I'm an author, right,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I can tolerate long stories. But is there ever a
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: time where you're like, I cannot do this for another week?
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: It's week seventeen. You just get sick of football by
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the end of the season, because right now we are
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: all so excited, we love it so much. We could
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: go for five hours talking about every single hot button
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: topic in the league, plus the thing that just we
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: care about as people who are gambling on it. There
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: ever a point where you get burned out during the season?
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: Not really, to be honest, Like you know, I think
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: there's always that concern. I always hear from my wonderful
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: editor's at ESPN dot com. Hey, you know, do you
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: need to take a break, You need to slow this down?
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: Do you want to not write something today? There's always
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: something to discuss, and I think football is so fascinating
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: because we watch it and we have so little of
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: an idea of what's going on that I think there's
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: always so much.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: Underneath the hood to discuss.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: And then of course there's so many different angles to discuss.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: There's fantasy, there's gambling, there's you know, analytics, there's there's
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: all these different ways to talk about football that I
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: feel like, frankly, I wish I had more time to
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: write about I wish there was more deep dives.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: I could do.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: Like you know, there's really in the second half of
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: the year, as teams sort of fade from the playoff race,
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: I'll watch them less and less. But there are some
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: times where that's meaningful. You know, there's times where ill
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: I'll wish I had time to watch the Texans in
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: you know, the final few weeks of the years, so
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: I could sit there and talk about them, or the Browns,
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: like I didn't really get to sit down until way
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: after the year talk about Deshan Watson and take a
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: close look into his struggles because the Browns were not
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: at the time from what I remember, particularly in the
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: playoff phrase. So I think, you know that there's really
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: an element of like I wish I had more time
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: during the week to discuss stuff, but it's such a
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: whirlwind that like there's there's there's just there's more more
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: things to talk about than there are times. So I
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: don't get burnt out by it very much.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Now I'm glad to hear that. I want you to
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: love with you. I want you to love football the
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: way it seems like you love football when you're writing
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: about football. Speaking of football, Justin Herbert just signed a
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: massive new contract. Joe Burrow is up for a new contract,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: and any list these are going to be probably top
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: four quarterbacks. Give me your really, I think so.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: You think Burrow and Herbert are in the top four.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I would say, Mahomes, give.
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: Me your top four.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Chad, talk about this, Mahomes, no question, Josh Allen, I
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: liked Burrow at number three, number three. Well, I think
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Simon likes Justin Herbert at number three. Simon correct me
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: if I'm wrong.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: You are wrong, But that's okay.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: And then I would have Herbert at number four, but
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I might already be off. Like the list that we
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: had we had posted maybe two weeks ago, Simon, to
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: tell me your money.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Who exact same? I had Herbert at four.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: You had Burrow at three and Herbert at four.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, oh you know what I might have had Burrow.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I might have had Burrow at two and Alan at three.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: That's what it was.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: That's what it was.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: But here here was our top ten. Matt Mitchell Simon's
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: top ten was Stafford Watson, Rogers, Lawrence Jackson, Herts, Herbert Burrow, Alan,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: mahomes H Bill. Give me your You don't have to
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: give me a full top ten, but give me your
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: I have.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: I have a full top ten for you. Do you
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: want it? Do you want it? In ten to one
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: or one to ten, ten to one, ten to one? Okay.
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: Number ten is to Sean Watson, where I'm willing to
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: throw out some element of what happened last year. Because
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: of all the stuff that the Sean Watson had happened
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: last year, we have more of a sample saying he's
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: a significantly talented quarterback. Injury is really the biggest concern
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: for me.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: I tried to tell people, but he's a scumbag. But
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: he's a good quarterback.
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: Okay, that's I mean, he's he could certainly qualifies both.
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: I think we have to see what happens. We have
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: what happens with Kevin's defan skin that offense this year.
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: I think there is that a real question of like
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: how does the how do those two worlds mild? Because
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: at the end of the day, like if there's a
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: problem here, one of these guys is making two hundred
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: thirty million dollars fully guaranteed.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: And one is.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: So that is what happens when you signed Shaun Watson
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: to a massive deal, is that you have to build
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: the entire organization around him. I have that number nine.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: I don't think that came up in your guys' top ten.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: I think Dak is number nine for me.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: He's in my top ten bill I had him at
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: number I had him at seven.
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: Okay, obviously intersection rates are concern last year, like that's
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: going to regress towards the mean we have a significant sample.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: He's not someone who puts the ball in danger. Don't
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: love Mike McCarthy as the OC, but I do think
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: he is going to be just fine. He's limited, doesn't
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: run the ball as much as he did before the
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: ankle injury, but to me, I think still a fishing
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: quarterback and still someone who can be very explosive when
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: given the opportunity number eight, I have to I have
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: to a tango Valoa. He was the best quarterback in
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: football before the injuries last year. First time of the year,
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: he was incredible. Obviously, having great receivers helps. He's super accurate,
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: though the injuries are concerned. I think you have to
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: project that in when you're thinking about the top ten,
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: because you don't know what we're going to get from him.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: Might get ten games, might get two games, might get
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: seventeen games. And I think certainly we saw teams take
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: away the middle of the field.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: This is the year right now.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: The Chargers had a game where Ben Sola covered this
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: for The Ringer, where they just basically broke their rules
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: and said, Okay, no matter what our safety situation is,
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: we're taking away the middle of the field. And Dolphins
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: didn't adjust. So I think it's on Tua and Mike
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: McDaniel this year to have adjustments for when teams take
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: away they're in breaking stuff because two is so deadly
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: throwing over the middle of the field. I have Herbert
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: at seven to you guys in the top four, and
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: you know, the question for me is, Okay, what are
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: you capable of versus what have you done? And for Herbert,
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: like he's capable of being the best quarterback in football.
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: He has has every tool in the bag. He is athletic,
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: he's smart, he has incredible guts, he's tough, like every
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: quality you would want in a quarterback justin Herbert has.
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: But has he done it?
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: Have you seen this stretch of him where he's been
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: the best quarterback back in football? And I think there
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: has not really been the case.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: That's so far.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: I've seen games from him that game against the Raiders
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: in Weeks eighteen two years ago, where it was he
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: was kidding every fourth down throw for twenty yards, like
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: that was the best quarterback play I saw that year
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: before Josh Allen in the in the playoffs against the Chiefs.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: But I go back to that Jaguars game last year.
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: He left two touchdowns on the field in a game
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: where the Chargers needed to win that game. They were
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: snapping the ball consistently ten twelve to fifteen seconds in
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: the second half of that game before they needed to
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: and some of that played the coaching. I think Joe
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: Lombardi was not a great coach. I love Kellen Moore
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: being there, but some of that time. Justin Herbert, I
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: think he has to master that stuff and be more
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: consistent for me to have him be a top four quarterback,
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: even if I know he has the ability and the
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: tools to pull that off. Number six for the record.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: For the record, I had Herbert at five. I sign
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: it had me four, and Matt Mitchell called my my
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: list a deeply unseerious list. And so far you and
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: I had dak Into in similar spots, but more people.
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: Well, Matt may may have some comments about my list
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: as we get further up here. Number six, I have
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson. Where Lamar Jackson, We're going have to see
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: what he does in a new offense this year. Obviously
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: there's going to be more expected with him as a thrower.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: I think he has the capability to do that. He
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: was running a pro style offense that Louis Field people forget.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: Under Bobie Petrino, he was running. Of course, he got
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: the running game built into it, but he had a
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: conventional passing attack. He can read the full field, run
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: through his progressions. He's not going to be a guy
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: where he's one and done in the pocket. And of
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: course he shoulders a significant workload as a runner, and
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: that matters, That factors in terms of your value as
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: a quarterback. Really, the only guy I think who shoulders
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: more of a workload as a runner is later on
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: this list in Jalen Hurts. So to me, I think
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: Lamar his values different than other quarterbacks and unique, but
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: I think he's very valuable. Number five a guy who
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know if this guy came up on your list,
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: and I don't. I can't understand why Trevor Lawrence I.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: Had four.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Right now, My list and Bill Barnwell's list are basically
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the same, and I got nothing but ripped for it.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: Well, you guys do both. You guys both worked at
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Estpian at one point.
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: So it's not true. That's true. ESPN wrote this list
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: for me.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I have to admit it feels that way.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: This is this is based on the first take Rundown.
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: I got helped out for putting Trevor Lawrence five on
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: my list. I think Trevor Lawrence, I mean when you talk,
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: I talked about Justine Herbert. Okay, what has he done
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: for a long stretch of time that makes me think
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: he's a top five quarterback? Trevor Lawrence had that stretch
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: in the second half of last season, let his team
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: to multiple victories, had like fifteen touchdowns against two picks.
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: Was super efficient with you know, okay receivers, backup left
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: tackle for a stretch of that time or backup tackle.
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: They lost Cake Robinson later on in that season, you know,
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: okay receivers. But like every guy who was there had
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: a career season. Evon Ingram had his best season. Say
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: Jones did his best season. Christian Kirk had his best season.
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: Like they had guys who were sort of stretched one
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: role beyond where I think they should be. Christian Kirk
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: probably best as the number two was their number one,
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: Say Jones probably a three? Was there two? Ev An
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Ingram a four should be there? Was there three? I
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: felt like they were. He was the guy in that offense.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: He can make any throw, just like Herbert Ken. I
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: just think he has a little better track record and
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: a little better draft pedigree. This is the guy we
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: expected to be a franchise quarterback from day one coming
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: into the NFL, A guy who was ready probably a
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: year before he was even eligible to enter the NFL.
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: I think I think people are sleeping on his MVP
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: upside this year where he has a weak division, he
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: gets Calvin Ridley another year in Doug Peterson's offense. I
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: think Doug Peterson is a great coach.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: There.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: There's so many ways that could go right with Trevor
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: Lawrence could have just you know, he competed with Mahomes.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: To me, I think he has that kind of upside.
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: Nobody's talking about him having that kind of upside right now.
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: What do you guys think you on board?
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, chat is I've got him at four just
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: to head A Herbert at five, and so I agree
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: with everything you're saying one hundred percent. You're affirming both
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: your genius and line.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: That's promising.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: I have Jalen Hurts at four. Of course, the run
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: game factor of factors in here. Shoulder is an incredible
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: workload on designed runs, not just scrambles. You know, I
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: feel like he is a player who's made incredible strides.
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: He was one of the least accurate quarterbacks adjusting for ERA,
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: in the history of football. As a rookie, he had
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: like one of the lowest completetion percentages we've ever seen,
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: and justin forer era, and he was I think number
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: two in adjusted completetion percentage last year. Like the strides
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: he's made as much as Josh Allen made strides, Just
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts has come even further. Over the course of
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: his first three seasons. He's been in incredible force. Course,
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, having two great receivers has helped the offensive line.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: Staying healthy for the majority of last year helped. I
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: think it's gonna come bounce back a little.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Bit this year.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: I think he might struggle a little bit because of that.
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: But I mean he's just a great player, and like
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: you can't count on him being worse this year. He's
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: He's taken incredible strategy season. If anything, he projected him
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: to get better. I have, of course, I have my
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: homes one, no point even talking about that. I have
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: Alan ahead of Burrow. I think Alan behind Burrow is
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: recently biased just because of the injury Alan suffered last year,
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: the elbow injury, where I think he's passer rating dropped
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: about twenty points before and after Week nine when he
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: suffered that injury against the Jets. Just I mean, Alan
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: is a force of nature in a way I think
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: Burrow is not. And Burrow is incredible. Obviously you want
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: him there when the game's on the line. He's He's
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: a winner for a reason. But I think Alan is
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: more as a runner, and I think Alan, you know,
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: single handedly propels the Bills forward in a way that
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, as good as he is, does not with
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: the Bengals. He has more help to me, So I
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: thought Mahomes, Alan Burrow, hurts, Lawrence Lamar, Herbert Tua, Dak Watson.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, you and Simon are spot on on in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the same place about Mahomes and Allen. You had a
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: great stat in your column, of which I read every
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: word very carefully, all four thousand of them, about Burrow's
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: yards per completion, I think dropping after that elbow injury,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: which even makes it more amazing how the Bills continued
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: to play, and that he performed the way he did. Simon,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: you maligned my list, and now you know Bill was
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: much more of an expert than I am. Do you
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: feel like maybe my list is better than you previously thought?
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Do you actually feel like Bill's list is kind of
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: a joke.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: First, I'll say the Herbert thing. I get where he's
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: going from Herbert, but you have to take the same
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: stance with Dak. Dak is the reason I left Dak
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: off my top ten was Dak has had seven full
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: seasons as the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. He has
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: played in zero NFC Championship games, and every year it's
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: the coach, it's the defense, it's the offense. There's always
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: an excuse for Dak. So I was sick of that.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: So that's why I left him out my top ten.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: And twer Cooper Rush came in. He went four and one,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: he beat the Bengals Giants. I can't hear any more
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: excuse for Dak, Like, Dak got you got the guys
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: around you, like, please do something in your career other
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: than I get it. He's really good in the regular season.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I just haven't seen it from Dak. My Herbert love
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Is Herbert cracked his rips. I think it was Week
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: two against the Chiefs. He was definitely hurt. And then
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: you take away Mike Williams, you take away Keenan Allen.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: For most that season. Last year, he still willed. That
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: team was I think their coach and their offensive scheme
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: was terrible for him. He was still able to get
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: them to a high seed. So I get where you're
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: at with Herbert. Right. It is one of those where
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: it's like I've watched that tape of that Jags game
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: so many times just because it is really really high
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: level QB play Herb the first half it's crazy high level.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: You were spot on. He missed so many guys in
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: that second half. Where that's the fear with Herbert. He
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: doesn't have that Joe cool personality, right, He's not this killer.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: He's kind of this shy, really nice, quiet guy. So
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: that's dely a fear with Herbert where it's like he's
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: got everything else. I don't know if he has an
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: alpha personality, which I for one hate the alpha male,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: like no one wants to deal with the alpha male.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: And football, you want that guy at quarterback. You need
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: like Mahomes watching this quarterback thing, him being in guy's
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: faces talking shit. What guy on a battlefield doesn't want
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: that as their leader, right? You want that guy who's
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: like I'm him, Like you're talking on the wrong guy.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: So I get you coming from the two one doesn't
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: really make sense in the sense of I do think
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: two has a talent, but Tyreek Killer Waddle are so good,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: like helps it really does where it's like I I'm
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: I'm almost there with Tua, Like I'm really he really
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: is probably number like eleven twelve for me. I just
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: had to put Stafford over both him and Dak because Stafford,
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: not even two years ago won that Super Bowl and
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: that was all on Stafford. Like you can go back
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: and watch all those games. It was always Stafford rushing attack.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: In the Holygue for that playoff game, it.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: Was always Stafford in the final couple of minutes stepping up.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, we people always remember that that game against Tampa.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Tampa came all the way back and Stafford didn't lose
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: as cool he threw a deep the Cooper Cup got position.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: They won that game. The next game, they're playing the
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers, Stafford stepped up again and led them
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: down the field. They won. Same with the Bengals. They
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: were losing against the Bengals and that fourth quarter he
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: came back and won. So I think the Stafford most
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: people leaving them off their top ten. It's just they're
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: kind of forgetting about the guy. It's kind of being
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: left for dead because he didn't play all last year.
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: Really, I do remember Stafford tossing off a punt to
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: Jaquiski Tart in the NFC Championship game with the fourth
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: quarter that was fortuitously dropped. But but your point, your
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: point as well taken. Stafford, you know did come up
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: with big plays. But I would say Cooper Cup come
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: up with big plays when that that Buccaneers game. If
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: you want to see the most incredible route you'll ever
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: see that first pass Cooper cat catches on that final driver.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: He has a cornerback play with outside leverage, saying I
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: want you inside, I want you getting out of bounce.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: He things going inside, breaks the cornerbacks, ancles, cuts back outside,
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: catches his past. Stafford makes an incredible throw, like throws
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: it before he's even made the break. Cup makes the catch.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: There's like three guys from him in the sideline and
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: Cup manages to sneak past one of them and get
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: out of bounce. It is the most incredible route you
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: will ever see in a big moment.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: So no question.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: Stafford I think made plenty of big plays late in
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: those games and does deserve to have more of a
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: reputation than he does. I think people are writing him off.
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: I think people are kind of writing off the Rams
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: on the whole, and I think there's reasons to write
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: off the defense, which is a scary uh inexperience on defense,
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: but I think the offense could be just fine in
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: twenty three.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we have talked about on this show. If
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Stafford is healthy and playing, we do like the rams
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: over six and a half. We like the value there.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: What I love what you just talked about, Bill and
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Simon on Stafford is the details and specificity of that
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: route that Cooper Cup ran. That meant that the way
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: you break it down, even though the defense and the
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: DBS were trying to drive Cooper Cup inside and he
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: faked inside, Matthew Stafford threw it before the break, which
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: means he had to know that Cooper Cup was going
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: to fake going inside and then go back outside. The
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: timing on that had to be perfect. And I don't
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: know this for a fact that maybe either of you
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: do from watching the film. Do you think that was
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: an improv by Cooper Cup or do you think that
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: it was the design fake and Matthew Stafford and he
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: were on the same page when they got to the
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage.
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: I think once stafford'saw the coverage, he knew he was
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: going to make that throw, and he was going to
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: try to make the throw either way, and I think
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: he knew. I think when they got to line of scrimmage,
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: is Cup new like, given this game situation, you know
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: they're going to play you outside leverage, you know, if
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: they don't want get a get out of bounce. I
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: think they gave Cup the space within the route concept
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: to Hals space to work like you could work in
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: downs are out of bounce. And then I think you know,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: Stafford knew Cup was going to fake going going you know,
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: towards the inside. That's where the space and the coverage was,
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: even knowing he was in the in reality going to
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: end up going outside.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: So I think it's a combination of both those things.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: Now, Bill made a great point too, That's just that's
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: probably the greatest wide receiver season we've seen in our lifetime,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: that Cooper Cup run where even in that game, Odell
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Beckham goes down and the Bengals defense you just see
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: them make an adjustment. They go, you know, we're just
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: gonna three bracket. We'll go one guy underneath, one guy
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: to cover the middle, then we'll go one guy over
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: the top. He still couldn't be covered. When you watch
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: that final drive, him and Stafford were just in such
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: a rhythm it didn't matter what they're running out there.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: So the biggest thing game we're gonna break down the
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Rams a ton coming up this season. The reason I
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: love them so much for ten to one for their
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: division is the NFL schedule gave them a gift. But
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: they literally start the season in Seattle and then they
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: come home and play the forty nine Ers, So they
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: play two of the best teams in their division Week
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: one and two, and that's one of those where if
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: they beat Seahawks beat forty nine Ers, they've just dropped
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: from ten to one, probably the three to one, the
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: four to one after just two weeks into the season.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: So that's one of those where I think that's how
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: football is, right Chad. People kind of just look at
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: last year and the competition. They go, well, yes they
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: still have Stafford and Cooper Cup, but if you've seen
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: how terrible their defense is, which is totally fair on paper,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: they're very young. How much do we talk about Chad
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: this league? The difference between the best guy and the
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: worst guy is literally a hair like That's how incredibly talented.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: All these top athletes are, so I'm with them. The
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: defense will be bad. With the right coach and the
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: right scheme, you can really cover up a lot of
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: the weaknesses. So that is definitely what its teams is
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: rams this year. I'm just I feel like all the
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: professionals are gonna be all over them. The general public
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: will just be talking Seahawks and forty nine Ers, right, Chad,
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: That's just what it's going to be like with this
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: division coming up of this year.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I would point out with the forty nine
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: Ers a team that I think will be good this
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: year and makes project to be good this year. There
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: is definitely a public perception that Kyle Shanahan can just
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: plug anybody and a quarterback and they're gonna be just fine.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: And all you have to do is think passed last
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: year where they had C. J. Bethard and Nick Moans
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: a quarterback for stretches and they were not winning football games.
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: They were entertaining.
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: They were better than they probably should have been with
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: those guys at quarterback. But it is not a we
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: can plug anybody in. So if Rock Party does get hurt,
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: if he's not ready, like there's no I like Trey Lance,
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: there's no guarantee the Niners are a twelve win team
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: over seventeen games. To Trey Lance, there's no guarantee they
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: are a twelve win game to win team over seventeen
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: games with Sam Darnold, and I do think having Christian
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: McCaffrey mitigate some of that, but there's also no guarantee
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey's going to be healthy for seventeen games after
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: missing most of the prior two seasons before last year.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: So I think there's this perception that the Niners are
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: locked into like ten elettle wins, that they're like.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: A safe team.
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: They have super high upside, of course, because they could
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: be one of the best offenses and defenses in football,
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: but there was a much lower floor that I think
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: people are giving them credit for right now, and.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: They lost their defensive coordinator. Just there's a lot of
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: definitely a lot of things where everything looks so good
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: for forty nine ers. They have a lot of questions
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: heading into the season, no question.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Still, before we let you go, the last quarterback on
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: my list, number eighty four in the top one hundred,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Bosa calls the greatest running quarterback in the history of
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the NFL. The quarterback I think is most on a
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: trajectory to be like Jalen Hurts when he got aj Brown,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen when he got to the Foden Diggs. That
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: is justin fields of the Chicago Bearers with DJ Moore,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: he was number ten on my list purely projection. Oh yeah,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: everyone is sick with me talking about it because they
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: think I'm a homer. But we bet the Bears at
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: one hundred to one. We bet the Bears at eighty
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: to one. The fun thing about working at the Action
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Network is last night it's five point thirty. I met
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: the office. I'm hanging with some people here. We're talking
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: about why the Bears have a path to win the NFC.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: We made a couple of bets on the Bears and
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: the Bills to meet in the Super Bowl at one
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty two to one. Do you have the
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: same optimism for the Chicago Bears that Simon and I do.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: I don't think I have that level of optimism, but
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: I can see I could see the vision. I can
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: see where you guys are coming from. The Bears, of course,
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: last year underplayed their point differential. They were a much
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: better team than their record indicated.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: They were I.
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: Would say actively trying to lose, at least in terms
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: of their person decisions. They traded away multiple starters on
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: defenses the year went along, didn't really replace them justin
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: fields of course, was bend up for part.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: Of the years.
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: Not have a great offensive line, great receivers, and they've
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: made upgrades in both those spots, and the division is
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: wide open. I personally I have the Packers winning the
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: NFC nor So that's also kind of crazy in some ways,
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: people are not necessarily thinking the Packers are going to
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: be the favorites. So with the idea being you can
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: get in and have a shot. The Bear certainly I
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: think are more qualified than other teams. My big concern
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: is just they have no pass rushers. They have a
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: shocking dearth of pass rushers they have. Last year, Jawan
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: Brescer led the team in sacks. He had four sacks.
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: He's the safety, and they didn't bring in anybody up
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: front who I have a lot of confidence in to
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: be the five six seven eight sack of year guy.
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: So to me, I think I'd like this is a
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: mad one. More pass rusher or two more pass rushers
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: in the next few weeks, whether it's a veteran like
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: someone like ad Justin Houston, whether it's someone who gets cut,
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: whether they like you know, sort of stumble on somebody
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: and he succeeds, like Charles Harris was with the Lines
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, like I need to see
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: a pass rusher before.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: I'm willing to have faith in them. But when you're.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: Getting those kinds of odds, I can understand bedding and saying, Okay,
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: there's one hundred to one chance that the NFC North
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: goes their way and they stumble on a pass rusher
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: and Justin Fields takes a leap. So absolutely, I think
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: if you're going to take a shot in any team
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: in that range, the Bears would be that team.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: For me, I'm taking that as yes. Clearly it started as.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: A no and shifted to up.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe you know what, because it's the NFC and you
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: have Justin Field question, so you can kind of talk
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: yourself into anything.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: No question.
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: Absolutely, if you're gonna like, like you know, when I
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: was looking at the AFC last night, I was talking
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: about it on my podcast, there's thirteen maybe fourteen teams.
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: Will you include the Raiders. We are gonna sit here
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: right now and think, oh, yeah, we're making the playoffs
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: this year, confident they're going to make the playoffs this season?
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: Can you really do that in the NFC? Can you
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: have you have maybe six teams that feel really good
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: about their chances and what that means one team that's
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: to get them. That is absolutely you know, like the Bearers,
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: I'm sure they're optimistic, but I don't think they're sitting
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: here saying, yeah, we're going to be a playoff team
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: this year. I think there are going to be teams
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: who surprised in the NFC because the competition just is
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: not there.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Wide freaking open. Ash reminder, The Favorites podcast is probably
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: presented by BET three sixty five, the world's favorite sports
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: book brand. Sign up with promo code action to get
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: BET three six five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: dollar on any game, get two hundred dollars in bonus.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer is available
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: call or text one eight hundred Gambler, ESPN's genius Senior Football.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: Writer about mypcial title.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: I know I'm making it up.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: I appreciate it.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Also host of the Beautifully Logo The Bill Barnwell Podcast.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on the Favorites. It was glorious.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: We were so happy to have you. For Simon Hunter,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites Podcast,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: presented by BET three sixty five, part of the Action Network.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Download us on Apple podcasts, on Spotify, wherever you get
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: your podcast, rate review, subscribe us five stars, say whatever
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: I love you.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help us.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler