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From Q-Day to Mars: The Market Shocks That Could Define the Year Ahead · Merryn Talks Money

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Maren Talks Money,
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Speaker 1: the podcast in which people who know the markets explain
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Speaker 1: the markets.
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Speaker 2: I am Maren's Somerset Web.
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Speaker 1: This week I am speaking with John Hardy, global head
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Speaker 1: of macro Strategy at Saxo, to discuss their annual list
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Speaker 1: of long shot financial events that would completely shake up
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Speaker 1: the markets. Every year, Saxo publish a list of outrageous predictions,
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Speaker 1: outlandish things that might or might not happen in the
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Speaker 1: year to come, but which, if they do happen, will
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Speaker 1: have massive ramifications. So past predictions have included a large
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Speaker 1: natural disaster bankrupting and insurance company outrageous very possible, Nvidia
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Speaker 1: ballooning to twice the size of Apple, while things which
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Speaker 1: very in their likelihood would make for great topics of conversation.
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Speaker 1: John with with us last year. You will probably remember him.
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Speaker 1: He's returning this year and he joins me in the
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Speaker 1: London studio. John, Welcome to Myrin Talks Money.
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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.
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Speaker 2: I say, welcome back to Myrin Talks Money.
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Speaker 1: Yes, indeed, Now listen, You've got a pretty varied group
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Speaker 1: of things this year. Where you go from the Earth
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Speaker 1: to space and all over the place. But actually my
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Speaker 1: favorite one, my favorite one, and regular listeners will figure
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Speaker 1: out why in a minute. My favorite one is actually
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Speaker 1: your first one, quantum leap Q day arrives early, crashing crypto.
1:29
Speaker 1: There's the clue and destabilizing world finance. Now that sounds complicated,
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Speaker 1: so we better start by having you, and I really
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Speaker 1: hope you can do this describing what you mean by
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Speaker 1: q day? What is QDA for people who have no
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Speaker 1: interest whatsoever in quantum physics.
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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I'll be the last to sit
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Speaker 3: here and describe how quantum computing works, because you quickly
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Speaker 3: discover that you have a very hard time wrapping your
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Speaker 3: head around it. It is a very to do this. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: I won't go very far with that, but I will
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Speaker 3: say Q day is simply the idea. It's the day
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Speaker 3: where the quantum computing can essentially crack into our digital
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Speaker 3: encryption infrastructure.
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Speaker 2: It is a matter of speed, right.
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Speaker 3: Accuracy, And that's the whole issue behind quantum computing. While
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Speaker 3: it's not being implemented in the real world, because it's
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Speaker 3: it has these error you know, these errors that are
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Speaker 3: created and have to be you know, somehow this error
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Speaker 3: part of the que quantum technology is is the thing
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Speaker 3: we have to apparently have millions of these cubits or
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Speaker 3: whatever to come up with a result you can trust. Therefore,
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Speaker 3: you can't get to the accuracy needed for something like
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Speaker 3: QDA to happen so far, but it is it is
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Speaker 3: a recognized risk if that it could happen one day,
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Speaker 3: because the speed with which a theoretical quantum computer can
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Speaker 3: calculate things is on a level of so many multiples
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Speaker 3: of our current digital technologies.
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Speaker 1: Okay, so this happens, and then basically every single password,
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Speaker 1: every single piece of security encryption everywhere is effectively useless
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Speaker 1: overnight could be.
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Speaker 3: Of course, of course you would have to I guess aim,
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Speaker 3: if that's the word aim, your a quantum computer that
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Speaker 3: is somehow miraculously so accurately at every single password. I
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Speaker 3: think actually the more like.
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Speaker 1: Are'd likely to target me directly first? Direct account may
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Speaker 1: may still be okay.
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Speaker 3: And that's a bit of the point here in the
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Speaker 3: actual outragus prediction we make is that it's not maybe
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Speaker 3: not so much the fact that it can do it,
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Speaker 3: but the fact that it's out there that this is possible,
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Speaker 3: that this technology is possible the sort of fear and
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Speaker 3: panic reaction that could be triggered by that. So imagine
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Speaker 3: you know, classic bank runs and a classic bank run
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Speaker 3: and nowadays could look like people wanting to you know,
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Speaker 3: get their crypto into turn into gold or something like that,
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Speaker 3: rather than relying on digital infrastructure. So more likely it's
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Speaker 3: sort of a fear and panic reaction to some kind
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Speaker 3: of breakthrough, rather than there's some serious criminal organization that's
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Speaker 3: actually aiming its resources at cracking key key infrastructure.
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Speaker 1: Okay, so what you say is that markets move first,
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Speaker 1: crypto has hit hardest, old bitcoin addresses, dot look vulnerable,
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Speaker 1: prompting exchanges to freeze with drills as a rush for
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Speaker 1: the exit turns into a stampede.
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Speaker 2: Bitcoin cl just world zero.
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Speaker 1: Now this is interesting because, I mean it's true that
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Speaker 1: one of the one of the things that'resposed to make
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Speaker 1: bitcoin so marveless, is it security? Yes, And once that's gone,
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Speaker 1: there's kind of nothing left.
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Speaker 3: That's right, you're relying implicitly, You're relying on the existing
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Speaker 3: cryptography to keep it safe.
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Speaker 1: Okay, So QDA makes bitcoin worth nothing, and we know
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Speaker 1: that q day is coming, So where is in bitcoin
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Speaker 1: worth nothing?
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Speaker 2: Already?
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Speaker 3: Theoretically q day. For for some that are studying quantum computing,
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Speaker 3: this QDA may never arrive because we can't do the
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Speaker 3: error correction needed to get the accuracy. So but it's
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Speaker 3: just out there. If quantum computing is something, and of
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Speaker 3: course there there's plenty of researchers, there are billions being
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Speaker 3: thrown at this technology. If it can realize its promise,
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Speaker 3: then we have to anticipate this and perhaps some of
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Speaker 3: our infrastructure needs to be sort of we need to
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Speaker 3: front run QDA, if you will, by using maybe using
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Speaker 3: the quantum technology to secure our systems before the cracking
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Speaker 3: can occur. I don't know, it's just something that's out there.
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Speaker 1: Sounds like you can front run it because Zach, yes,
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Speaker 1: anyone who wants to do bad stuff with it can
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Speaker 1: do it very quickly, and anyone who wants to prevent
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Speaker 1: the bad stuff has to spend a part of time
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Speaker 1: developing defenses.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, there are some I'm not really familiar with
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Speaker 3: the fully into the weeds on the technology, but there
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Speaker 3: are already some some sort of crypto keys that they're
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Speaker 3: trying to develop with quantum technology. So, but I agree,
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Speaker 3: it could look like a chicken and egg problem, and
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Speaker 3: just imagine how disruptive it is. We're so reliant on
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Speaker 3: these systems for for nearly everything. Our digital infrastructure is
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Speaker 3: so fast for everything from your Google password if you're
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Speaker 3: on Google, so your Bloomberg password and Bloomberg systems too.
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Speaker 2: Of course Bloomberg will be safe.
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Speaker 3: Military and military intelligence. Who knows what right the government systems,
5:43
Speaker 3: et cetera.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 1: Interesting, See, then bigging goes and then everything else starts
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Speaker 1: to starts to tremble because people lose trust in everything,
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Speaker 1: and we have a bank run. Everyone tries to hold cash.
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Speaker 1: But of course a bank round doesn't want a bank run.
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Speaker 2: Used to be, is it? Because in the olderys you
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Speaker 2: could go to a bank and say, give me my million.
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Speaker 1: I'd like it right now, may million dollars whatever. And
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Speaker 1: nowadays pretty much every bank has a limit on what
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Speaker 1: you can withdraw it. You can turn up and say
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Speaker 1: at like two thousand pounds and then go on, what
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Speaker 1: do you need that for? Yeah, and so you know,
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Speaker 1: I don't en sure you can have a new fangled
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Speaker 1: bank run and quite the same way you couldnee aled it.
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Speaker 3: No, that's true, but we always have to remember classically,
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Speaker 3: of course, banks loan out far more than they actually
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Speaker 3: have in deposits, So you know, there could be certainly
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Speaker 3: stress financial stress on the system. Of course, you know
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Speaker 3: this is the disaster response would be there. Things would
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Speaker 3: be frozen to prevent this kind of disaster from unfolding,
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Speaker 3: just like we saw in the pandemic. Official you know,
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Speaker 3: the response will be mobilized on the scale we've never seen,
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Speaker 3: just like the pandemic mobilized a massive response. So it's
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Speaker 3: just a paint a picture of this could be extremely disruptive,
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Speaker 3: even from the reaction of the news item itself, rather
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Speaker 3: than simply rather than there's actual risk to your am
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Speaker 3: I you know, deposits in a financial system, or safety
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Speaker 3: of our personal information.
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Speaker 1: And because we know what the ultimate note password required
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Speaker 1: anti idiotcy acid is, don't we.
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Speaker 3: What's that gold? Well, yes, I mean if you have
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Speaker 3: gold in your pocket. The alchemy is still my favorite
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Speaker 3: is there was a news item that alchemy isn'te possible
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Speaker 3: but the energy input is is so ridiculous.
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Speaker 2: It is possible because I did.
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Speaker 1: I wrote relatively recently something about how we hadn't managed
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Speaker 1: alchemy yet. We'd managed alchemy in a few other areas,
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Speaker 1: but not with gold, and I instantly got in barrage.
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Speaker 1: The message is telling me that it was possible. It
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Speaker 1: was just so energy intense.
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Speaker 3: Exactly, so it can spend a million dollars to get
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Speaker 3: an ounce of gold to or whatever the number is
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Speaker 3: to trans Yeah.
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Speaker 1: But of course, once we figured out how to beam
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Speaker 1: so that energy directly from space and energy becomes permanently
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Speaker 1: abundant and free, alchemy will be possible, and the idea
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Speaker 1: of gold going to ten thousand dollars suddenly it disappears
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Speaker 1: because gold too will be free.
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Speaker 3: Well, I wouldn't say it's free if you have to
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Speaker 3: send up a lot of assets into space to beam
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Speaker 3: that energy back and constant replacement of solar panels. But
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Speaker 3: then again, maybe I'm just a.
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Speaker 2: Bit okay there outrageous prediction for you.
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Speaker 1: By the middle of maybe next year, we'll be beaming
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Speaker 1: solar from space and gold will be gold will be free.
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Speaker 1: But under your your scenario, hey, gold goes to ten
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Speaker 1: thousand dollars right plus.
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Speaker 3: Well, yes, I mean clearly as again, part of the
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Speaker 3: sphere response would be I have to have something I
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Speaker 3: can trust the value of, and it could go to
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Speaker 3: what would seem actually ten thousand dollars these days. Doesn't
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Speaker 3: sound all that outrageous, but certainly it would go up
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Speaker 3: because people want that security about.
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Speaker 1: I suspect that if this really happened and there really
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Speaker 1: was this complete lack of trust across the system, go
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Speaker 1: a lot higher than ten thousand.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, if it was a profound QDA event, the gold
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Speaker 3: could go to in conceivable levels.
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Speaker 1: I would guess, I think times for gold bugs. Let's
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Speaker 1: stick with out of Space, shall we? Sure your fifth
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Speaker 1: outrageous predictions? SpaceX announces an Ibo super charging extraterrestrial markets.
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Speaker 1: Is this about my predictions on solar Well.
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Speaker 3: I mean, actually your solar SATs, I think is what
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Speaker 3: that technology is called, and a very interesting idea, so
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Speaker 3: beaming a back solar power as an X ray to
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Speaker 3: some kind of receiver on the Earth. No, but it's
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Speaker 3: about this one is about the fact that if this
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Speaker 3: starship system has had a very troubled start, I must say,
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Speaker 3: with all of these crashes, it's a bit musk style
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Speaker 3: to send things up and learn from learn from your mistakes.
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Speaker 3: But the last one was fairly successful, even with a
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Speaker 3: small payload. But if this starship system is realized, it
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Speaker 3: allows vast capacities vast capacities compared what was available before,
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Speaker 3: maybe on the order of an order of a magnitude,
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Speaker 3: which is what you need to get to the Moon.
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Speaker 3: It takes ten times the energy to get to the
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Speaker 3: Moon as it does to simply send the same cargo
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Speaker 3: into a low Earth orbit. So if you build it,
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Speaker 3: they will come. It's a little bit the principle here,
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Speaker 3: and it's not just SpaceX, it's building it. We have
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Speaker 3: Blue Origins starting to get operational with their new Glen rocket,
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Speaker 3: which is somewhere in between the Falcon nine and this starship.
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Speaker 3: And you even have this up and comer with really
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Speaker 3: fantastic speed of development, rocket Lab, which is about to
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Speaker 3: launch their Falcon nine competitor next year. So next year
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Speaker 3: is very very aggressive schedule for what we're talking about here,
9:56
Speaker 3: but it could engender the sense that if we have
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Speaker 3: a an order of magnitude availability of launch payloads to
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Speaker 3: a bigger variety of orbits, there's all kinds of technical
10:07
Speaker 3: industrial applications that would need micro or non gravity. And
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Speaker 3: even you laugh about the solar or being solar energy.
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Speaker 3: No no, no, no, I'm not saying laugh at you bring
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Speaker 3: it up as a humorous topic. It's a fascinating idea,
10:20
Speaker 3: but simply having solar powered industry in space and among
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Speaker 3: the applications mentioned have been Google seriously looking at whether
10:29
Speaker 3: they could do data centers because you have the availability
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Speaker 3: of suddenly payloads that can be launched a much lighter,
10:35
Speaker 3: you don't have to worry about the cooling systems as much.
10:37
Speaker 3: It's pretty cold and outer space. If you're shaded from
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Speaker 3: the sun minus two hundred and whatever, it is seventy
10:42
Speaker 3: degrees and you have, of course, if you can insert
10:44
Speaker 3: it in an orbit where you're exposed to the sun
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Speaker 3: around the clock and as much more intense energy, you
10:49
Speaker 3: can drive your data center from solar energy, and relative
10:53
Speaker 3: to recent growth rates, that is the limiting factor for
10:56
Speaker 3: AI data center build out. It is the availability of
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Speaker 3: electricity and energy. So it's a fast idea to think
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Speaker 3: that we could be number crunching and.
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Speaker 1: Then we could stop building these terrible transmission infrastructures all
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Speaker 1: over all over the country side, bringing up the pylons,
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Speaker 1: et cetera.
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Speaker 2: The w stub complaining will be marvelous. The upsides are undless.
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Speaker 3: The scale of some of these systems are incredible. The
11:15
Speaker 3: Facebook one that's they saw a picture of it super
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Speaker 3: imposed on Manhattan. It's just almost almost alarming, but it is.
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Speaker 3: It's very massive, Okay.
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Speaker 1: And then the next stage of that is that Elon
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Speaker 1: Musk colonizes Mars, claims it as a sovereign country with
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Speaker 1: zero income, property, or other taxes. I'm loving that he
11:33
Speaker 1: announces the intent to off planet Tesla, Eggs and Spaces
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Speaker 1: headquarters to Mars.
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Speaker 3: Don't you just think that's his style? Though? That was
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Speaker 3: the just thinking. I'm thinking absolutely, I think relative to
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Speaker 3: his style of doing things and his attitude towards towards government,
11:47
Speaker 3: Let's remember a doge uh this, this would be very
11:50
Speaker 3: much and keeping with his style. And we all know
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Speaker 3: that Musks is completely obsessed with getting to Mars, and
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Speaker 3: I think some way of getting there, even before humans
12:00
Speaker 3: can get there, to do something like this is maybe
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Speaker 3: not even that outrageous in terms of what he would
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Speaker 3: like to do. I'm actually achieving it in twenty twenty six.
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Speaker 3: That's a pretty aggressive schedule. I think there's actually only
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Speaker 3: one launch wind if I'm not mistaken for getting things there,
12:11
Speaker 3: because of of course, the planets have to be somewhat
12:13
Speaker 3: in alignment for these missions to be done in a
12:16
Speaker 3: reasonable amount of time, otherwise you're sending it across the
12:18
Speaker 3: whole orbit, et cetera. So yeah, I like that one
12:22
Speaker 3: just because you put together what's coming in the space
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Speaker 3: of starship, and you put together sort of Musk style,
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Speaker 3: you know what his dreams are of related to morrow.
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Speaker 1: I mean, this is just a more ambitious version of
12:34
Speaker 1: a thirty year old leaving the UK for dubaied Paliss
12:37
Speaker 1: tax right.
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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, but it's the same thing.
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Speaker 3: Talk about being on a grand scale though, establishing your
12:42
Speaker 3: oras structure, your own sovereign nation on a different planets.
12:45
Speaker 3: It's just taking to buy one step further.
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Speaker 2: I would say, yeah.
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Speaker 1: And then the last bit of this prediction, which is interesting,
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Speaker 1: is about selling space on the Moon. So mapping, mapping
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Speaker 1: the lunar service, dividing it into blocks and enough to
13:00
Speaker 1: the highest better. So you've got to lunar plots and
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Speaker 1: mineral rights down to one square meta and you get
13:04
Speaker 1: a wild NFT like bidding graze that saws than chrisis.
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Speaker 1: People start buying real estate on the Moon and then
13:10
Speaker 1: they realize they're being more for that than they are
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Speaker 1: for a nice house in wheelchair and everything christ is Now.
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Speaker 1: I like those because I mean, we've been through stages,
13:18
Speaker 1: haven't we over the years, where startup companies will start
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Speaker 1: selling a little bits of the moon to people for fun,
13:22
Speaker 1: So you can buy a little plot on the Moon
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Speaker 1: for your great uncle for Christmas or for his birthday
13:27
Speaker 1: or whatever. So this real estate market already exists. I'm
13:30
Speaker 1: going to imagine the court cases.
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Speaker 3: It's really less about the moon focus. I think we're
13:34
Speaker 3: sort of just sort of opening our minds to what's
13:36
Speaker 3: possible with this, and more about the space race in
13:39
Speaker 3: terms of the ability to produce things in space. And
13:41
Speaker 3: there are some specific technologies that really need zero and
13:46
Speaker 3: very low gravity to even be possible, things like growing
13:50
Speaker 3: these crystals where you can grow in a very controlled
13:53
Speaker 3: and large fashion relative to what's available on Earth because
13:55
Speaker 3: there's no gravity.
13:56
Speaker 2: A kind of crystals.
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Speaker 3: These are crystals for use in pharma. So that's actually
14:01
Speaker 3: the most intense research that is taking place in the
14:03
Speaker 3: International Space Station and this crystal growth, growing these crystals
14:06
Speaker 3: for pharma applications. And not super familiar with the extreme
14:09
Speaker 3: part of the how you do this, but it's about
14:11
Speaker 3: the designing drugs and how they attach to the molecules
14:16
Speaker 3: they need to attach to and having these crystals in
14:18
Speaker 3: various forms helps you to do that. The other thing
14:21
Speaker 3: is that's really fascinating actually links back to last year's
14:23
Speaker 3: outrageous prediction, and that was a bioprinting. So if you
14:27
Speaker 3: need to bioprint a more complex and larger structure, if
14:31
Speaker 3: you're doing that on Earth, if you think about a
14:33
Speaker 3: three D printing of a something that's organic, like a
14:37
Speaker 3: part of our body, let's say a heart, in the
14:38
Speaker 3: most complex sense, it SAgs because it's a soft structure
14:43
Speaker 3: with sag and earth at gravity. But if you're in
14:46
Speaker 3: zero gravity, there's no sagging, and therefore you can build
14:48
Speaker 3: these structures in a way that's totally impossible when you
14:52
Speaker 3: have a gravity through it. And there are actually also
14:54
Speaker 3: experiments taking place even with listed companies on the International
14:57
Speaker 3: Space Station. And if you had the availability of these
14:59
Speaker 3: lower you know, price points for launching, you could you
15:02
Speaker 3: could create a fab and start to see this writ
15:05
Speaker 3: large for for both for farm companies where they're actually
15:09
Speaker 3: making these crystals. For I think key true to forgetting
15:12
Speaker 3: who the maker is of that drug was related to
15:15
Speaker 3: the crystal growth and outer space and the bioprinting. So
15:19
Speaker 3: you know, in addition to the data center. So there's
15:21
Speaker 3: some serious stuff here as well. Besides the lunar space.
15:24
Speaker 3: You know, there's some astronomy things you can do on
15:26
Speaker 3: the Moon as well, but there's some really no.
15:28
Speaker 1: We'll talk about mining on the Moon and rare earth
15:30
Speaker 1: on the Moon, et cetera, et cetera. So when you
15:32
Speaker 1: talk about this, it all sounds incredibly exciting and lots
15:34
Speaker 1: of advances. When I hear you talking like that, I
15:38
Speaker 1: just think, oh, space war. Yeah, they're bound to be
15:41
Speaker 1: conflict over territory, boundary, conflict over where your satellites are,
15:45
Speaker 1: where your fab is, where your data center is, which
15:49
Speaker 1: part of the Moon you get to mine, etc.
15:51
Speaker 2: There's a war coming in space, right, I.
15:53
Speaker 3: Don't know if there's a war. Maybe there's certainly rivalry coming,
15:55
Speaker 3: but some of the rivalry, I think this whole Moon component.
15:59
Speaker 3: Imagine there's sort of the psychological impact back in nineteen
16:01
Speaker 3: fifty seven, of course, when the Soviets launched Sputnik. Imagine
16:04
Speaker 3: if you're the US today, you've always had this idea
16:06
Speaker 3: that the US is the world's greatest company, where the
16:08
Speaker 3: pioneers in space, we own space. And suddenly you see
16:11
Speaker 3: a Chinese moon rover. You know, zipping around on moon
16:15
Speaker 3: and they're planting their flag on the Moon. I think
16:17
Speaker 3: there's a there's this sort of a space race aspect
16:20
Speaker 3: to this, a rivalry in the best sense, more than
16:23
Speaker 3: more than a war, hopefully. But I think there's a
16:24
Speaker 3: lot of controversy as well in space. I mean, there's
16:26
Speaker 3: the risk. There was a an article I read talking
16:29
Speaker 3: about these Starlink satellites and the fact that they their
16:32
Speaker 3: orbits will degrade over time and a number of them
16:34
Speaker 3: are constantly entering the atmosphere. It could be destroying our
16:37
Speaker 3: atmosphere over time, or you know, creating problems in the
16:40
Speaker 3: atmosphere with the ozone layer. I believe it was, And
16:44
Speaker 3: at some point they did some modeling of the probability
16:46
Speaker 3: that it's going to start killing one point seven people
16:48
Speaker 3: per year. Just the number of them is sheer number
16:51
Speaker 3: of them as their orbits degrade and pieces of them
16:54
Speaker 3: all out of the sky and eventually we'll hit people
16:57
Speaker 3: or stuff, right, And how how do you deal with
16:59
Speaker 3: that from a prs If if you're having one of
17:02
Speaker 3: these incidents, every.
17:03
Speaker 2: I think you knew what we should do.
17:05
Speaker 1: When we get stopped on this JOm, we're going to
17:06
Speaker 1: start a company that will clean up space junk. Yeah,
17:09
Speaker 1: there are apparently global international organizations to pay us to
17:13
Speaker 1: do it.
17:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've not read the details, but apparently there are
17:16
Speaker 3: ways to clean start cleaning space junk. But if not,
17:20
Speaker 3: and we have I think it's called the Kessler syndrome
17:22
Speaker 3: or something like that, this idea that the risk if
17:24
Speaker 3: there is a massive collision out there between two objects,
17:27
Speaker 3: there could be knock on effects and then we'd be
17:29
Speaker 3: pretty much not able to launch.
17:31
Speaker 1: Okay, so there may there may be a future ahead
17:33
Speaker 1: where we know how we had to wear masks for
17:35
Speaker 1: years and years during the pandemic for reasons. There may
17:39
Speaker 1: be a future boy we will have to wear helmets
17:42
Speaker 1: or if reserve us from a minute risk.
17:45
Speaker 3: Well, no, that's that's going a bit far, I would say.
17:48
Speaker 1: But okay, let's stick with cleanup and go to number eight.
17:53
Speaker 1: Dumb AI triggers a trillion dollar cleanup. I mean some
17:57
Speaker 1: people would say AI is already very very dumb.
17:59
Speaker 3: What we mean by this, Well, I think it could
18:02
Speaker 3: be that if you're not careful with how AI is implemented,
18:06
Speaker 3: especially once we get to the agentic AI phase where
18:09
Speaker 3: AI is actually carrying out it's carrying out tasks. Maybe
18:13
Speaker 3: you know it creates accident and I think you see
18:16
Speaker 3: this as well, so that you can write computer programs
18:18
Speaker 3: with AI. But if you're not really aware of how
18:19
Speaker 3: computer programs work, once the complexity develops and it starts
18:22
Speaker 3: doing something that you don't anticipate, how do you go
18:25
Speaker 3: back and figure out what's going on. It's got your data,
18:27
Speaker 3: you don't know what's doing. You need expertise, So suddenly
18:30
Speaker 3: you need software called a human being to go in
18:32
Speaker 3: and do the cleanup. So it's just an anticipation that
18:35
Speaker 3: there may be some over enthusiasm and parts of the
18:37
Speaker 3: AI space. There's already been a case of one AI
18:40
Speaker 3: erasing an entire database of a company that was of
18:43
Speaker 3: reasonable size. I don't have the name on the top
18:45
Speaker 3: of my head.
18:46
Speaker 2: And then think about the physical misunderstanding and storage.
18:50
Speaker 3: And maybe not even malicious, or it could be programmed
18:52
Speaker 3: to be malicious once it's agentic, and then it has
18:54
Speaker 3: been programmed to be malicious. Let's take a physical AI
18:57
Speaker 3: a nefarious actor, whether it's an accident or whether it's nefarious.
19:01
Speaker 3: Physical A I could get us into trouble. And I
19:03
Speaker 3: look at the drone technologies that are available on the
19:04
Speaker 3: warfront between Russia and Ukraine, where that war has accelerated.
19:09
Speaker 3: I'm not talking about AI necessarily here, but just accelerated
19:11
Speaker 3: drone technology itself, probably to a degree that wouldn't have
19:14
Speaker 3: happened without that war. You know, I don't want to
19:16
Speaker 3: paint too negative scenario, but you know, mass full self
19:20
Speaker 3: drive incident, whether it's Tesla, whether it's another company, or
19:24
Speaker 3: some glitch hits the system. It's just to say there
19:27
Speaker 3: could be some clean up necessary if we take these
19:30
Speaker 3: steps too quickly without understanding what the implications might be.
19:33
Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, and this is kind of good for humans,
19:37
Speaker 1: you say this response. The response gives rights to a
19:39
Speaker 1: new profession of AI janitors or pest controllers, so elite
19:42
Speaker 1: human coders and ordered to tast with tracing, utilizing and
19:45
Speaker 1: rebuilding fluid systems. I mean, I'd be very grateful recently
19:48
Speaker 1: with those people telling me that I shouldn't teach my
19:51
Speaker 1: children to code because it's not worth it because AI
19:54
Speaker 1: will do all the coding. And now I find now
19:56
Speaker 1: I find that if they'd learned to code, probably they
19:58
Speaker 1: could be AI janitors.
20:00
Speaker 3: I think the scenarios is realistic, and let's let's it's
20:02
Speaker 3: not so far back we go. If we wind back
20:05
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen years, there have been a lot of
20:07
Speaker 3: systems and I'll actually refer to my father in this case,
20:10
Speaker 3: who who learned some of the first types of software
20:13
Speaker 3: program in a code called as Simbler, where of course,
20:16
Speaker 3: your your process and resources were so dear that you're
20:19
Speaker 3: assigning literally bits, ones and zeros down to the chip level,
20:24
Speaker 3: very very machine connection level of coding. You can hear
20:26
Speaker 3: from my programmers out there, can hear from my form
20:29
Speaker 3: a while I'm describing this that I'm I'm butchering it,
20:31
Speaker 3: but basically very very you know, very close to the
20:34
Speaker 3: actual instruction set needed for your chip. Whereas, of course
20:37
Speaker 3: highly higher level program you're you're dealing with some kind
20:39
Speaker 3: of language. And as these systems devolved, you're still had
20:42
Speaker 3: these systems active, and you probably still have some systems
20:44
Speaker 3: act ab out there. Suddenly these skills of these these
20:47
Speaker 3: old fellows that extremely valuable because they understood how that
20:52
Speaker 3: stuff worked, that that lower level instructions worked. And that's
20:55
Speaker 3: actually to some degree what the Chinese developers did with
21:00
Speaker 3: deep Sea. They went down down closer to the machine
21:02
Speaker 3: and developed a much more efficient code, they could do
21:05
Speaker 3: much more on fewer resources, as well as dividing up
21:08
Speaker 3: the large language model into sort of expert expertise rather
21:12
Speaker 3: than trying to do everything all at once, and came
21:15
Speaker 3: up with some much more efficient approach with with limited resources.
21:18
Speaker 3: So you know, don't don't discount human engineerviities a little bit.
21:21
Speaker 3: There's a little bit the message, and we need to
21:23
Speaker 3: we need to sort of we need to have somebody
21:26
Speaker 3: that's managing this AI, at least so far for quite
21:31
Speaker 3: some time.
21:31
Speaker 2: Yet, let's go back to gold, your favorite topic.
21:50
Speaker 1: It seems well, I mean, you seem to be humoring
21:52
Speaker 1: me the whole way, these predictions like you wrote them
21:54
Speaker 1: for me. Number seven, number seven dollar dominance challenged by Beijing.
22:00
Speaker 1: Now we know the Chinese Central Bank has been buying
22:02
Speaker 1: and buying and buying right, lots and lots of gold,
22:05
Speaker 1: and suddenly this comes to some kind of fruition.
22:07
Speaker 3: Well, yes, I mean, the idea here is taking a
22:10
Speaker 3: stab at how global money it will be shaping up
22:14
Speaker 3: in the years to come when you have what seems
22:17
Speaker 3: to be a slow divorce of US and China, and
22:20
Speaker 3: China realizing it needs to have an alternative and to
22:23
Speaker 3: be able to operate at least in part and if
22:26
Speaker 3: necessarily entirely outside the dollar, the dollar system, both to
22:29
Speaker 3: avoid the type of weaponization of of the dollar and
22:34
Speaker 3: the financial system in the West that was seen you
22:37
Speaker 3: know when Russia invaded Ukraine, right the freezing of assets,
22:39
Speaker 3: et cetera. So it's taking a stab at how China
22:43
Speaker 3: would carry that out by by yea, having something that
22:47
Speaker 3: that it's trading partners X dollar system could trust and
22:52
Speaker 3: it's not willing. If it's not willing to trust a
22:55
Speaker 3: fiat currency, perhaps it's willing to trust a something that
22:59
Speaker 3: looks like a bank or that could be linked to gold.
23:02
Speaker 3: And maybe maybe it's only the central banks that could
23:04
Speaker 3: actually hold this currency. But anytime you needed to redeem it,
23:08
Speaker 3: you could, and then China could get away with doing
23:09
Speaker 3: this because it's a surplus nation runs a surplus and
23:12
Speaker 3: by having this reserve set up engender the trust, which,
23:15
Speaker 3: as we talked about before starting the podcast, it's this
23:17
Speaker 3: sense of trust that is so critical. And really the
23:20
Speaker 3: Chinese rimen bee yes, with some hitches in the system,
23:24
Speaker 3: especially back in the twenty fifteen reboot, they did of
23:28
Speaker 3: how they were linking it to a basket rather than
23:31
Speaker 3: just to the dollar. It's been effectively a dirty peg
23:34
Speaker 3: to the US dollar and it needs to get off
23:36
Speaker 3: of that system and go its own way. So how
23:38
Speaker 3: does it do that? This question needs to be answered.
23:41
Speaker 3: This is outrageous way it could be answered. But something
23:44
Speaker 3: is coming. And we've seen all Fiat currencies devalue massively
23:48
Speaker 3: against gold and silver this year and last year, and
23:51
Speaker 3: this is all about We all know it's coming. With
23:53
Speaker 3: these the massive debts we have and the system, and
23:56
Speaker 3: China is debt addled as well with its an incredible
23:58
Speaker 3: real estate bust that are still being digested. The revaluation
24:02
Speaker 3: has to happen, and it's already happening against hard has sets.
24:05
Speaker 1: Okay, so this gives us, as you put to hear,
24:08
Speaker 1: something we haven't seen in a very very long time,
24:10
Speaker 1: occurrency that is actually tied to a hard asset, to
24:14
Speaker 1: something tangible rather than just two government promises, the return
24:18
Speaker 1: of something almost like a gold standard.
24:20
Speaker 3: Well, the dollar was a gold standard as well, theorey
24:23
Speaker 3: for quite some time post the Breton Woods arrangement up
24:26
Speaker 3: until it started coming under stress in the sixties, but
24:29
Speaker 3: then only finally ended in the early seventies.
24:32
Speaker 1: What does it mean for the US, Well, you most
24:36
Speaker 1: again start moving their money into this, into the Golden Yan,
24:39
Speaker 1: They're going to reduce their holdings of the dollar across
24:43
Speaker 1: the board, produce their holdings of treasuries. The US has
24:46
Speaker 1: this massive debt problem, needs to constantly keep rolling out
24:49
Speaker 1: new issues of treasuries.
24:50
Speaker 2: No one's going to be buying them. What happened to next?
24:52
Speaker 3: It has to do that to service the global dollar
24:54
Speaker 3: system as well. Yeah, but if the global dollar system
24:57
Speaker 3: is downsized with something that you have a rival here,
25:00
Speaker 3: then of course it puts some pressure on the US dollar.
25:03
Speaker 3: It certainly sets up a challenge to the US dollars dominance.
25:07
Speaker 3: You know, there's this idea, is it quote unquote replaced. No,
25:10
Speaker 3: the dollar itself will never be replaced, but there could
25:12
Speaker 3: be a rival, and it could mean that the dollar
25:14
Speaker 3: has to fall a bit more than it would have
25:16
Speaker 3: fallen otherwise. If you have a credible rival taking up
25:20
Speaker 3: more of the global assets, then it's currently where the
25:23
Speaker 3: dollar is. Essentially eighty eighty eight percent of global assets
25:26
Speaker 3: are denominated in dollars.
25:28
Speaker 1: This doesn't seem to me to be one of your
25:29
Speaker 1: more outrageous predictions. It seems to me to be something
25:33
Speaker 1: that is almost inevitable. And we know that China, we
25:37
Speaker 1: know that they're planning to use them for some kind
25:39
Speaker 1: of currency backing. It's just exactly how that unfolds. I mean,
25:44
Speaker 1: you say, we all know it's coming, we just don't
25:46
Speaker 1: know exactly how. But we do know we're talking about
25:49
Speaker 1: some kind of gold back currency which one attempt to
25:51
Speaker 1: impart at least replace the dollar.
25:53
Speaker 3: And shouldn't US treasures be coming under more pressure if
25:56
Speaker 3: we were really concerned about this? It feels like but
25:59
Speaker 3: don't you think it's one partying. We're all partying on
26:01
Speaker 3: the deck and we know this impending doom like uh,
26:04
Speaker 3: like the White Russians on was a turned crimea towards
26:07
Speaker 3: the end of the Russian Civil War. But it's something
26:10
Speaker 3: something that has to give, and if this is really
26:13
Speaker 3: coming about, so it's just a maybe a reminder and
26:16
Speaker 3: maybe outrageous to say that it's going to happen.
26:18
Speaker 1: And maybe it's one of those things you're not really
26:20
Speaker 1: allowed to say too loudly, but everyone knows it's true.
26:22
Speaker 3: And I remember this action about and maybe I'm going
26:24
Speaker 3: to switch it up on you. I remember your actuation
26:26
Speaker 3: last year that our predictions weren't outrageous enough, and you've
26:28
Speaker 3: seem to be repeating that a little bit. But I
26:31
Speaker 3: like the the one I think is we're outrageous is
26:35
Speaker 3: perhaps the one on the US politics. And I don't
26:36
Speaker 3: know if you've picked that one out something you'd like to.
26:38
Speaker 1: Talk about, but let's do that one, Okay.
26:41
Speaker 3: No, the reason I'm referring back to our discussion last
26:45
Speaker 3: year is that these aren't outrageous enough, John, and I thought,
26:49
Speaker 3: and then I saw some other general comments as well
26:52
Speaker 3: in last year's cycle. It's like, how do you how
26:53
Speaker 3: do you even come up with outrageous predictions? And when
26:55
Speaker 3: the world has become so outrageous, you know, And that's
26:58
Speaker 3: a great question. So there's a bit of twist of
27:01
Speaker 3: irony here on the political one, saying that instead of
27:03
Speaker 3: continuing to get more crazy in parts, and actually we
27:06
Speaker 3: revert to the mean a little bit in US politics,
27:08
Speaker 3: and we have a very orderly and normal midterm elections.
27:11
Speaker 3: And it's hilarious because we did. We did have a
27:15
Speaker 3: private run with some clients of the predictions this year,
27:18
Speaker 3: and that was the that was the single prediction that
27:20
Speaker 3: people reacted to most negatively. Is really likely could see
27:23
Speaker 3: it happening, So I thought, that's interesting. And the only
27:26
Speaker 3: time I remember clearly that the clients reacted very negatively
27:30
Speaker 3: to an idea was the year we predicted that gold
27:32
Speaker 3: would collapse after being going up twelve years straight at
27:35
Speaker 3: whatever it was back around twenty eleven, twenty twelve. So
27:38
Speaker 3: as an American, I'm also hoping that that things continue
27:41
Speaker 3: to proceed normally within a you know, within in terms
27:45
Speaker 3: of election integrity and things like that.
27:46
Speaker 1: The midterm set emersion a trend was greater unity and
27:49
Speaker 1: civility as and new consensus and mergers around the importance
27:52
Speaker 1: of maintaining the integrity of US institutions and civil debate.
27:56
Speaker 1: The US has moved beyond Trump Republican unity, fractures, US
28:00
Speaker 1: transitions beyond peak populism, the line in social media strokes
28:06
Speaker 1: as a result.
28:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then what I'm hoping is in terms of
28:10
Speaker 3: this prediction, there's a bit of wishful thinking perhaps in
28:12
Speaker 3: this prediction as well, but it does seem there's a
28:15
Speaker 3: bit more of an awareness around how this outrage cycle
28:18
Speaker 3: works with these algorithms and how they drive you down
28:20
Speaker 3: or a rabbit hole of outrage, because that's the way
28:22
Speaker 3: you stay engaged. So if a if there's a general
28:25
Speaker 3: awareness around it and be they're even starting to see
28:27
Speaker 3: legislation coming up in Congress linked at this algorithm. I
28:32
Speaker 3: think it's called the Algorithm Accountability Act that is being proposed.
28:36
Speaker 3: Could where our nate the way we absorb and deal
28:38
Speaker 3: with these these algorithms and so called social media, which
28:41
Speaker 3: really isn't social media, it's outrage doom scrolling in the
28:43
Speaker 3: worst instance. Could that help us to change the debate?
28:47
Speaker 3: Could this alt media that is developing become a bit
28:49
Speaker 3: more like the legacy media in terms of just a
28:53
Speaker 3: more balanced approach and people tune into something more balanced
28:55
Speaker 3: rather than tuning only into that which sort of triggers
28:58
Speaker 3: their outrage the outrage cycle. So it was a bit
29:03
Speaker 3: of aishal thinking, but there it does seem to be
29:05
Speaker 3: increasing awareness around this. There seems to be a bit
29:07
Speaker 3: more balanced voices. Legacy media has been largely discredited, but
29:11
Speaker 3: the alternative people are starting to see it for what
29:14
Speaker 3: it is. As well as everything being two partisan, maybe
29:18
Speaker 3: we actually revert a bit to the mean to to
29:20
Speaker 3: looking for more balanced voices out there that are that
29:22
Speaker 3: are weighing the pluses and minuses rather than you know,
29:25
Speaker 3: trying to just drive and outrage agenda.
29:27
Speaker 1: If you were making an outrageous prediction for UK politics,
29:30
Speaker 1: you could say things will go quite smoothly for a while,
29:34
Speaker 1: for example.
29:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, or maybe the US could lead the way on
29:37
Speaker 3: this for once and then you know they could follow elsewhere.
29:41
Speaker 3: A good question on the UK politics.
29:43
Speaker 1: I tell you what, let's go BC t and as
29:45
Speaker 1: you this one, let's let's go problem in the studio.
29:48
Speaker 1: By the way, BC drugs for everyone, even for pets, now, listen,
29:53
Speaker 1: I don't I don't think there should be as much
29:54
Speaker 1: an outrageous prediction as an ambition for pets, for pets,
30:00
Speaker 1: and for this, I'm quite fat dogs around my area.
30:02
Speaker 2: I've got to say I've got a very skinny dog myself.
30:04
Speaker 2: He is very fussy about what he eats. Not a
30:06
Speaker 2: real dog.
30:07
Speaker 1: There are a lot of fat dogs around a lot
30:08
Speaker 1: of very fat counts, a few fat hamsters. But they're
30:11
Speaker 1: worry about people first. Right weight loss revolution anderss the
30:15
Speaker 1: real new phases. A leading healthcare giant expands as blockbusts
30:18
Speaker 1: the golb one port VLUO among humans and even beyond
30:21
Speaker 1: into the animal kingdom. By twenty twenty six, a company
30:24
Speaker 1: launches a new golp one treatment in pill form. Now
30:28
Speaker 1: that that seems like it's going to come.
30:29
Speaker 3: It's alredy happening.
30:30
Speaker 2: What's happening.
30:30
Speaker 1: We know that you can get that it is possible
30:32
Speaker 1: to do it in pill form, and that will make
30:34
Speaker 1: it a lot easier for people because a lot of
30:35
Speaker 1: people they don't like to inject.
30:37
Speaker 3: Right exactly, And that's part of plus the cost.
30:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, plus the cost, So pills will be cheaper easier.
30:41
Speaker 1: So pretty much everyone that can now have a drug,
30:44
Speaker 1: which means a diabetes or type two diabetes in particular,
30:47
Speaker 1: more or less disappear. A lot of the health conditions
30:49
Speaker 1: that come with this disappear. BMI averages across the world
30:53
Speaker 1: basically collapse down to normal levels. Everyone's got a BMI
30:55
Speaker 1: of twenty one, everyone's vet. No one wants to eat
30:58
Speaker 1: junk food anymore. People stop drink, and the world is
31:01
Speaker 1: maybe a much better place, maybe.
31:03
Speaker 3: More boring place too. But I'm going.
31:05
Speaker 1: Now, I know I feel upset about the people's drinking bit,
31:07
Speaker 1: where's the fun? But generally speaking, this is this is
31:10
Speaker 1: only upside, assuming no appalling side effects.
31:14
Speaker 3: Suddenly a bit well there are side effects. There's no
31:16
Speaker 3: drug that comes without side effects. But I think it's
31:18
Speaker 3: it's really fascinating to consider the usage patterns that are
31:21
Speaker 3: already evident in the injectable form, and that is in
31:23
Speaker 3: case they're very, very expensive, so people will go on
31:26
Speaker 3: and very quickly because they are very effective. For those
31:28
Speaker 3: that stay on the regime get down to some target weight,
31:31
Speaker 3: and then probably because of the cost and probably because
31:33
Speaker 3: they think, oh I can deal with this, they go
31:34
Speaker 3: off the drug. And then they balloon back up because
31:37
Speaker 3: your your appetite comes back and your your old patterns
31:39
Speaker 3: re established unless you've changed something about how you deal
31:42
Speaker 3: with those things, and so they go back on. So
31:45
Speaker 3: it's very it's it's something you can cycle back on
31:47
Speaker 3: and off with and imagine it in pill form where
31:49
Speaker 3: you could take a very very small dose. It's just
31:51
Speaker 3: like not for the people that are having a really
31:54
Speaker 3: severe issue with obesity, which is supposedly the first round
31:57
Speaker 3: people are getting it besides Hollywood people apparently, but just somebody.
32:01
Speaker 3: It's like they want to take the top off the
32:02
Speaker 3: five the seven kilos or the one stone if you will,
32:06
Speaker 3: if you're UK based, and uh just occasionally take it
32:09
Speaker 3: to to just take the top off. But it means
32:11
Speaker 3: that if everybody suddenly changing, there be and I and
32:15
Speaker 3: you're changing how much you eat. A restaurant menus will
32:17
Speaker 3: change how much they're offering what they're offering. Apparently it's
32:20
Speaker 3: much less pleasant to take certain or eat certain types
32:23
Speaker 3: of foods when you're on these drugs. I think it's
32:26
Speaker 3: fatty foods like something. They'll cycle off of them ahead
32:28
Speaker 3: of Thanksgiving or something like that because they know they
32:30
Speaker 3: can have anecdotal stuff about that, like they'll they'll plan
32:35
Speaker 3: ahead for for a taste to not be on their
32:38
Speaker 3: GLP ones. But but I think it's just as the
32:41
Speaker 3: pill form B, it's a lot of competition. Uh see
32:44
Speaker 3: there are new ones coming up. Uh this is probably
32:46
Speaker 3: further out that have longer half lives. So it's ah,
32:49
Speaker 3: you wouldn't have to take it as frequently. It's just
32:52
Speaker 3: I think it's going to become ubiquitous. You know, I'd
32:54
Speaker 3: like to try one out. I wouldn't mind putting a
32:57
Speaker 3: stone aside from my weight. So uh, I just think
33:00
Speaker 3: it's it's it's going to be a game changer, and uh,
33:03
Speaker 3: you know, whole wardrobes that need to be replaced it's
33:05
Speaker 3: it's has vast retail certainly retail consequences, potentially lifestyle consequences
33:10
Speaker 3: and how people spend their time as well.
33:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you do have to exercise, don't you.
33:13
Speaker 3: Well, you always have to exercise, of course if you
33:15
Speaker 3: if you only take GLP ones and do anything else,
33:17
Speaker 3: you'll lose muscle.
33:18
Speaker 2: Mass, You'll lose Yeah.
33:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't make you an athlete. It just takes
33:21
Speaker 3: away your appetite and you and.
33:23
Speaker 2: You lose weight.
33:24
Speaker 1: Okay, So lots of influencers were there before and after
33:27
Speaker 1: photos with their sleek labradors and their newly spelt house caps.
33:31
Speaker 2: There isn't not house cuts.
33:32
Speaker 1: There's another business we should get into, right, can't we
33:35
Speaker 1: jump the gun here?
33:36
Speaker 2: Start a business doing a.
33:37
Speaker 3: Weight injecting the poor cats. It's fun, It's really fun
33:40
Speaker 3: to give a cat and an injection. I've heard I
33:44
Speaker 3: recall many a traumatic vet experience back in the day. No, yeah,
33:48
Speaker 3: we could, but I just I'm imagining a future where
33:50
Speaker 3: when these become a big ones and there's you know,
33:53
Speaker 3: tiny doses that are adjusted to the size of a cat.
33:55
Speaker 3: Why not you tossed it in the you know, the pete,
33:58
Speaker 3: a little piece of pete and their their cats.
34:00
Speaker 1: You know, this would actually make a labrador into a
34:02
Speaker 1: perfect dog, right because labradors are kind of nice. Everyone
34:05
Speaker 1: likes the labrador, but they're super irritating the way they're
34:07
Speaker 1: always hungry.
34:08
Speaker 2: You could take that away.
34:09
Speaker 3: They're hungry because they're actually is an unfortunate part of
34:12
Speaker 3: their genetics that they don't have the gene that tells
34:15
Speaker 3: them to stop eating. Specifically, that breed is going to
34:20
Speaker 3: work for that. Scientifically, it's a great question. So I
34:22
Speaker 3: guess the next question will be would would an appetite
34:25
Speaker 3: suppressant work on a dog that doesn't have the stopper
34:28
Speaker 3: for appetite. I don't know labrador is specifically, would it
34:31
Speaker 3: be an interesting test case?
34:33
Speaker 1: And this is useful information for British people. You know
34:35
Speaker 1: how fond we are of labradors. Any listeners who know
34:38
Speaker 1: have an idea as whether these drugs would work on libraries,
34:40
Speaker 1: do you please let us know? This is useful information
34:42
Speaker 1: for the Merin Talks Money podcast. Okay, so keep an
34:46
Speaker 1: eye on fast fashion, keep an eye on the way
34:48
Speaker 1: that food producers and restaurants react to this, and definitely
34:50
Speaker 1: give an eye on pet food producers.
34:52
Speaker 2: Right yes, now, When do you most need a new dog?
34:56
Speaker 2: When do you most need a labrador to join your
34:58
Speaker 2: little families? When you get Marria?
35:00
Speaker 3: Right, that's right.
35:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, So number two, everyone's going to get married.
35:04
Speaker 1: The most contrariant thing a young person to do can
35:07
Speaker 1: do today, get married, have five kids?
35:09
Speaker 3: Yes, exactly, everyone's going to do it.
35:11
Speaker 2: Why are they going to do it? No?
35:13
Speaker 3: I think the idea was here. We know that one
35:15
Speaker 3: of the big events influencer if you want influencer events
35:19
Speaker 3: of at least last decade, is going to happen in
35:22
Speaker 3: the coming year, and that is Taylor Swift, the number
35:24
Speaker 3: one sort of pop icon of the moment has been
35:26
Speaker 3: for quite some time. We'll be getting well getting married
35:28
Speaker 3: with Travis kelcey, and this will be an event maybe
35:32
Speaker 3: on the scale it's to some degree of Princess Die
35:36
Speaker 3: and Charles back in the day. I mean, this is
35:38
Speaker 3: really truly a big event.
35:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not going on honeymoon on a very small
35:42
Speaker 1: yacht with one hundred staff, though, are they.
35:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a rule that's what broke that marriage out.
35:48
Speaker 3: Well, we'll go into that, but I put a little
35:51
Speaker 3: easter egg in there as well, that they might get
35:52
Speaker 3: married as early as January because as an NFL fan,
35:55
Speaker 3: I specifically hate the Chiefs. But anyway that would allow
35:59
Speaker 3: them to get married more quickly and maybe have a
36:02
Speaker 3: baby in the new year. And that was the part
36:03
Speaker 3: about fertility as well. No, I think it's a it's
36:05
Speaker 3: one thing.
36:06
Speaker 1: You guys get married in January and have a baby
36:08
Speaker 1: in the new year.
36:09
Speaker 3: Sure, January, and they have a baby in what a September, October, the.
36:14
Speaker 2: End of next year.
36:15
Speaker 1: I think of the new year, I'm thinking January.
36:18
Speaker 2: She can do a lot, but she can't do that.
36:19
Speaker 3: We were trying to hurry in the marriage and the
36:21
Speaker 3: baby carriage in the same year. But in any case,
36:23
Speaker 3: I think that the seriousness behind this is that.
36:27
Speaker 2: She announced that she became pregnant on a wedding night.
36:29
Speaker 1: A baby really everyone's show notes, we have the we
36:33
Speaker 1: have the full outrageous predictions.
36:35
Speaker 2: You'll love reading this one.
36:36
Speaker 1: They move close to family to build a privacy environment
36:39
Speaker 1: for a child. They vow the child will not be
36:41
Speaker 1: allowed to access to online entertainmental phones and tablets until
36:44
Speaker 1: the age of ten. They pull back from social media.
36:47
Speaker 1: All the rest of us were inspired by them. This
36:50
Speaker 1: is marvelous. We copy their lifestyle.
36:52
Speaker 3: That's the idea, because you have the number one influencer
36:55
Speaker 3: and baby, and there is a lot of There is
36:57
Speaker 3: a lot of attention also even in the younger generations.
36:59
Speaker 3: On a the mental health issues surrounding and the social
37:04
Speaker 3: part of social media is no longer in existence. It's
37:07
Speaker 3: broadcast media by influencers, really and it's in the worst
37:10
Speaker 3: case it's doom scrolling where you're just looking for the
37:13
Speaker 3: next dopamine hit. So it's just about this our relationship
37:18
Speaker 3: to how we absorb social media, as well as ironically
37:21
Speaker 3: a little bit that an influencer influences maybe to get
37:24
Speaker 3: off the stuff. I do think it's more likely that
37:27
Speaker 3: if there is to be any big rebound in marriage
37:30
Speaker 3: and then having babies, is that the middle fifty percent
37:33
Speaker 3: of the income spectrum needs to have a lower cost
37:35
Speaker 3: of living, especially around child rearing. However, that is constructed
37:39
Speaker 3: not from social influencers, I admit that, but I think
37:42
Speaker 3: it does feel like we're seeing a value shift, and
37:44
Speaker 3: I think we would probably all need to get a
37:45
Speaker 3: little bit off the screen more and a little bit
37:47
Speaker 3: more engaged in our physical realities around us and our
37:50
Speaker 3: communities to be more likely to get married and to.
37:55
Speaker 1: Have heard it here first, less screen time or sex, right, John.
38:00
Speaker 2: Absolutely right.
38:03
Speaker 1: What this means is that the big social media stocks
38:06
Speaker 1: they slept goodbye Matter, goodbye Google, lots of activity in housing,
38:11
Speaker 1: diy prams, et cetera, et cetera. The IMF and the
38:14
Speaker 1: World Bank revised global GDP forcusts up by one percentage
38:17
Speaker 1: point per year of the next five years, and demographers
38:20
Speaker 1: scramble to reassess the pace of population declient across the
38:24
Speaker 1: advanced economies.
38:25
Speaker 2: We call the whole thing the swifty put.
38:28
Speaker 3: I like the swifty put is great. Yeah, and I
38:31
Speaker 3: wish it would happen, but we'll have to see. I
38:33
Speaker 3: think it was also this prediction was after the midterm
38:36
Speaker 3: one was the one people rated as the least likely
38:40
Speaker 3: to happen. I don't know if it was people being
38:42
Speaker 3: allergic to thinking about Taylor Swift. Our audience was maybe
38:44
Speaker 3: skewed a little bit older and male, but it was
38:47
Speaker 3: a bit interesting to see the audience reaction.
38:49
Speaker 1: If they have anyone who has a teenager daughter would
38:51
Speaker 1: look at this and go, uh huh, that is definitely
38:53
Speaker 1: going to happen.
38:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, there's also this you're seeing and actually see
38:57
Speaker 3: this in my youngest daughter as well. With people are
38:59
Speaker 3: engaged in uh hobbies called grandma hobbies, from knitting to crocheting.
39:05
Speaker 3: That's what my daughter. It's amazing picking up these these
39:09
Speaker 3: old crafts and even wanting to And I see this
39:12
Speaker 3: at least the two of my kids collecting, wanting to
39:15
Speaker 3: collect vinyl records because I want some physical manifestation of
39:18
Speaker 3: the music. They love having it all in digital bits circulating.
39:21
Speaker 1: And also because you know the QDA is coming and
39:23
Speaker 1: they're going to lose access to the Spotify can.
39:25
Speaker 3: That could be another reason.
39:29
Speaker 2: Almost happy optimistic note for the new year. I think
39:31
Speaker 2: we'll leave it there. John, thank you so much for
39:34
Speaker 2: joining us.
39:34
Speaker 3: Thank you it's been a pleasure.
39:45
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks Money. If
39:47
Speaker 1: you like our share rate, review and subscribe wherever you
39:49
Speaker 1: listen to podcasts, and keep sending your questions or comments
39:52
Speaker 1: the Merrin Money at Bloomberg dot net. You can also
39:54
Speaker 1: follow me and John on Twitter or x. I'm marynus
39:57
Speaker 1: W and John is John Underscore stepa Twitter.
40:00
Speaker 3: John, It's John J. Hardy. I put the J in
40:03
Speaker 3: there because John Hardy is a very generic name, So
40:05
Speaker 3: John J. Hardy and then you can find me pretty quick.
40:07
Speaker 2: Excellent.
40:07
Speaker 1: This episode was hosted by me Marazims. That Web was
40:10
Speaker 1: produced by Samasardi and Moses and sound designed by Blake
40:13
Speaker 1: Mabels and Kelly Gary. And special thanks of course to
40:16
Speaker 1: John Hardy