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Transcript

Phillies/Yankees MLB + WNBA Best Bets Saturday 7/26/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four, that's have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends slump that I'm on. The slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Arch eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth? I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: But I'm not I don't even know what day is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: I die at.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the Slump series, The Slump discontinuous, The Slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: End it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's sewed back with you for better
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: off dead Saturday almost said Sunday, Saturday, July twenty sixth,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: and happy Happy Gilmore Weekend or Happy Gilmore Weekend. Happy
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Gilmore two is out, everybody. I rewatched the original last night.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Uh still classic, still had me laughing quite a bit.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Hadn't watched it in a while, And I will watch
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: the new one, which I'm hearing decent things about, actually,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: even though I hate the unoriginal. In the movie industry
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: now everything is a remake or a sequel. But at
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: least this is a remake and probably an homage to
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: a classic nineties comedy at this point.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So I will watch it today and see how it is.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: But people have been saying good things about it, so
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: maybe it is actually funny. Yesterday, the Slump indeed continued.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: We're owned four Own four run over the last couple
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: of days that I've given out plays. I think I
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: skipped Thursday, skipping the Thursday pussy the fussy, skip the
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: fussy with a very small card on Thursday. Although my leans,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I think we're pretty good on Thursday. But Wednesday was
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: just horrific OWN three and then yesterday own one. The
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: one game I gave out man the Under Mets San
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Francisco was a bad start to the game. I mean,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Clay Holmes did his job, he was good enough, only
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: allowed one run, and I did lean to the Mets
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: as well, which I gave out on the show as.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: A lean to the Mets.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: But I thought the Under was the better way to
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: look and the Mets were the much easier and correct
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: way to go. But man, I still think the Under.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it had a shot to get there.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Logan Web was bad.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I mean he was surprisingly he was a lot worse
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: than I thought, surprisingly bad yesterday, and that was the
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: reason why I didn't get there. So the early going
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: it looked like it was over, like over and going
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: over it was over in every way.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Then of course they have to tease us.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: We get into the ninth inning and it's still sitting
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: at an under. I had under seven and a half
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: and it was six to one into the ninth inning,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: and of course you do have to get both teams
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: up to the plate there though, because San Francisco was
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: losing at home, so you knew they were gonna have
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: to bat. But the Mets didn't need to score any
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: more runs. Man, they're up six to one. I mean, yeah,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: you want to pad your lead. Whatever. They score two
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: runs in the ninth inning and that's how that game
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: went over against the Giants formidable bullpen. Although of course
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: in a six to one game, you're not gonna use
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: your best relievers.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: You'll save them for the next day.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: But still, ridiculous when you get that tease, it looks
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: like it's a roller coast motion. Man, it looks like,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: you know, it looks like it's dead. It's completely over.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: So then just end it at that point, man, But no,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: instead we have to go into the ninth inning of
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: the game still under and then we lose.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: In the ninth inning. I hate it. I'm not sure
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: that it was really the wrong play.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Maybe it wasn't the greatest play, but it was my
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: favorite on the board yesterday, so whatever, man. But anyway, yes,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I have my happy Gilmore hat on let's be happy
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: here or my happy Gilmore esque Bruins had. At least
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: I haven't burned it like I said I might in
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: the in the intro. Here, we'll talk about baseball today.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: We have one extra baseball game today because there is
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: a double header. There was one rain out yesterday and
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: it wasn't in the series that I thought it was
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: gonna happen in. So we'll talk about that, and we'll
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: talk about w NBA in a second here as well.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Let me collect my thoughts real quickly, or I don't
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: think I have any other thoughts, all right, I don't know.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Well, how do you know? You know you're not in
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: my head. I'm gonna give out two baseball plays today
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: though that.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Are both on even plays, so decent prices on these.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out a side as you can see
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: in well in that's in the game that I've listened
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: in the title here, so I'm gonna save that to
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: the end of the show, and then I am gonna
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: give out a total as well, which of course is
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be another under Charles.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: What's up? Man? It was good? All right? Well, that's
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: good to know. I heard that it was like that.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: It has like a lot of like shout outs to
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: fans of the first one, which I think is a
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: good I mean, that's a good idea. It's like you
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: watch it for nostalgia, although hopefully it has. I mean,
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: the main goal is it better make you laugh. Like
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: as long as it's funny, then I think it qualifies
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: as good. Like it better just be actually funny. That's
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: the only thing. Man, All right, let's let's get into this.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Man. We'll go into the rundown here. We'll get caught
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in a run down here.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: I'm eventually gonna change that to the breakdown and have
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: a toad crying and maybe being suicidal or something.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: We do have WNBA today.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: We have LA at New York, which, as I always say,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: is the rematch of the first w NBA game ever
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Lisa Leslie and Rebecca Lobo.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: But they are of course long gone.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: They're not dead, but they're dead to the WNBA, at
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: least because they're obviously not playing anymore. This is a mismatch.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, LA, they've had a tough schedule. As I
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: continue to reiterate, they're not really as bad as the
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: record looks. But the Liberty are one of the top
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: two teams in the league between them and Minnesota. But
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: the Liberty are on a back to back. They played
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: yesterday and it was not really an easy game, although
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: they won fairly easily by double digits, but against a
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: pretty solid opponent Phoenix. They're not traveling, of course, but
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: a back to back always a little bit difficult. But
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: for LA, they're playing a third straight road game, and
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be feeling like too high
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: on themselves if they're putting up one hundred against Connecticut.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've been scoring a lot of points. They've
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: scored over ninety and four straight games, all wins, but
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: against only Connecticut and Washington's. He got to kind of
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: dial it back a little bit as far as, oh
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: my god, LA is just wasting these teams now, at
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: least a lot offensively. I don't think they're gonna be
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: like overconfident coming into this stuff, because we all know
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: how good the Liberty are. So I do still think LA,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're gonna show up. Both teams probably will
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: show up here. The money is moving against the Liberty,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: which I do understand because they're on the back to back,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: they're down from twelve and a half to ten and
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Twelve and a half did seem like kind.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Of a little bit of a high line there on
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: that one, too, but what a line. Know, it's WNBA
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: slightly into taking the points with LA. But there's no
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: way I'm gonna get involved in a game like that.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna give on any plays here. Although luckily,
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: as I keep saying luckily with yesterday, that was the
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: thought that I had yesterday, I did not actually bet
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: that game, as I'm trying to either could serve my
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: money or free it up to start betting against We'll
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: see what I wind up doing. But I have not
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: been actually betting these games when I'm handicapping them as
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: if I were.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you liked it, but you're ataded.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, well that's the whole thing, right, I mean,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: that's what an Adam Sandler comedy is. Man, his top comedies,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: That's the reason why why you like them? Billy Maddison
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: and Happy Gilmore far and away the top two Adam
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Sandler movies of all time. Yeah, I mean like you
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: like them for that exact reason. Seattle is at Washington.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: The aforementioned Washington. Washington lost two straight games to LA
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: and before that, what did they do? Oh yeah, they
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: went to Seattle and they beat Seattle, which I think
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: was before the All Star break. So this is a
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: little bit of a road revenge spot for Seattle. So
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I think where Seattle might not totally take a team
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: like Washington that seriously, they might now because Washington did
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: just go into their place and beat them not that
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: long ago. So I do think Seattle will take this
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: game a bit more seriously. Seattle is coming off an
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: easy win over Chicago now playing a second straight road game.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're not in a spot yet where like
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: the travel spot I think is really gonna hurt them
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: or anything, but you might feel a little bit overconfident.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Have you wreck a team, You wreck Angel Reese's team
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: by almost forty points.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just ridiculous.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: But Chicago sucks the line's doing against Seattle, though they're
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: not for five and a half to three and a
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: half with juice. Don't know if there's like an injury
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: situation here, but I kind of think Seattle should show
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: up in this game because it is the road revenge
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: angle hero though Washington is good at home seven and
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: four at home, so they have been significantly better at
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: home than away.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: We're not really looking.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: At any for Seattle. I mean, the line did not
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: move because of any injury. I think Samuelson has already
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: been out for a while. I'm not even sure about that,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: but yeah, so Seattle looks like they basically have their
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: full roster that you would expect them to have in
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: this game.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So we're not gonna touch.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: The WNBA though. Angel Reese, yeah, I mean, she can't shoot.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: She is a good rebounder, but yeah, I mean she's very,
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: very bizarre looking. I don't like her at all obviously,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: because I think she's part of that you know, kind
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: of race rivalry there, which yeah, I mean, I just
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: think everybody's just going after Caitlyn Clark for that reason,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: and Reese is kind of the I don't know if
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: I want to see the main culprit, but she's kind
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: of like the face of that aspect of the WNBA.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll go to baseball here.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna skip Philly in New York right now, which
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: is one of the biggest games on the day, which
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: is on MLB Network. It is the first game up
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: in the afternoon, but it's gonna be one of my
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: best bets, so I'm gonna get.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: To that at the end. Cleveland Kansas City have a
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: double header, so we'll talk about this.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: They got rained out yesterday, and for once, we actually
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: have a double header where game one is actually the
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: same exact pitching matchup that was scheduled for yesterday, So
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: I handicapped this pitching matchup yesterday, so it's the same
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup that was gonna happen yesterday, where a lot
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: of times you'll see one of the two pitchers get
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: moved to the night game or the later game, but
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: that's not gonna be the case here. And yes, the
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: other game is at night. Basically every game, pretty much
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: every Saturday game is at night. So I'm surprised they
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: have this big afternoon game today. Usually everything's evening on Saturday,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: but the double header means there is an afternoon game.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: But I'm surprised Philly, New York is afternoon anyway. Cleveland
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, both of these teams have we offenses. Kansas
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: City has a somewhat better bullpen than Cleveland's. Both bullpen's
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: rested yesterday, so all of that kind of makes you
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: think that this has got to be kind of an
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: under in the first game, right, because you have offenses
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: that might be a little bit cold and they're already
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: not good. You have rested bullpens, so the best relievers
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: should be available here, although the teams are gonna have
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: to kind of weigh that against how many relievers do
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: they want to save for the evening game here. Gavin
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Williams a three point five four ERA one point three
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: to eight whip though for Cleveland, so his whip not
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: that good four point one seven e R on the road,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: so he is worse on the road. He's coming off,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: as I mentioned yesterday, a really good start against the
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: A's with eleven strikeouts, one walk, seven innings, one run allowed.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: But and that was not at the A's crazy hitting stadium.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: But I kind of take that as more of an
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: outlier type of line there, pitching line for Williams, because
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: he has not done that at all.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Otherwise.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: He had six straight starts prior to that walked at
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: least three in every outing. So I don't think we're
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: ready to trust Williams just because he had one really
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: good start. Maybe he's coming into form a little bit,
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: but that seems like a little bit more of an
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: outlier to me. His walk rate has been pretty bad
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: twenty six to thirteen strike out walk ratio this month,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: including that eleven strike up performance, so it was a
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: really bad ratio prior to that.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: His ERA is good this month, three point zero four.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: So the one thing about Williams is he does actually
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: induce a decent amount of ground balls usually, but this
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: month it's been a lot of fly balls. So I
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: don't know what happened there, because more often than not
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: he's had kind of a better ground ball rate, but
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: this month that has not been the case. Whatever the
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: case may be, his ERA remains fairly low, and he
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: is facing a bad case offense here, and he's been
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: good against them in seventy eight at bats nineteen to five,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio two thirty one, average of five
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: seventy two oh ps. So maybe you can trust Williams
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: in this specific matchup. Michael Walker will be pitching for
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. He's been okay this year three point six
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: two ERA, one point two to four WHIP. I mean,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: he's a veteran, he's been around for forever. He's kind
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: of a command pitcher, it doesn't really blow guys away.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: He's been good at home this year two point seven
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: two ERA, it's a fairly pitcher friendly park. This month
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: three point six ERA, which is pretty good, allowing one
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: earned run a piece in his last couple outings. The Royals, however,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: have lost seven of his last eight starts. I believe
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: is what that is. But part of that, of course,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: is because the Royals offense cannot do anything. He had
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: one bad start at Arizona this month, but maybe you
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: give him a little bit of a pass for that
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: because it's tough to pitch against Arizona in Arizona. But
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio this month is ten to eight.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: That is a high walk rate. You don't expect Walka
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: to have a really good strikeout rate, but Walka is
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: becoming a walker, which is a joke that I make
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: a lot when he's when his walk rate is high.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: But it is high this month, so you do have
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: to worry about that a little bit. And last time
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: out he only had one strikeout, and again he's not
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: really a strikeout guy, but one strikeout it's a little
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: bit alarming, especially against a not great offense like Miami.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: He is facing a not great Cleveland offense here, and
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: his numbers are good against them in eighty six at bats,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: nineteen to nine, strikeout walk ratio two thirty three average
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: six sixteen ops. So we do have good matchup numbers here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Because again everything that I said week of offense is decent.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Bullpens rested bullpens starting pitchers both do keep the run
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: totals down for the most part, So I actually think
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: the under is probably the way to look in this
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: first game. The total has gone up a little bit though,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: from eight and a half to nine, very high total.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: The books have put out a total.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, when the books put out a total that high,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: they are kind of telling you something.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised by that.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: We have fifty eight percent of tickets on the under,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the cash on the over, so the
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: market is totally disagreeing with me on that. But I
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: would not want to play the over in this game.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: And the money is also coming in on Kansas City
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit. With fifty eight percent of tickets on
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: Cleveland fifty two percent of the cash, Kansas City is
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: a slight minus one twelve favorite. It's definitely hot in Arizona,
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: but Arizona just generally well, I mean, they have a
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: roofed stadium, though I'm pretty sure right I think it's
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: a retractable roof in Chase Field, So I'm pretty sure
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: that because it's in Arizona, when it's too hot, I'm
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: pretty sure they close the roof to try to cool
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: it down a little bit. But the dimensions of that stadium,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: it's still a very hit or friendly stadium there, So
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: I think that's what's going on there in Arizona.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Same thing with Houston.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Houston has a retractable roof, so when it gets like
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: really really hot there, they close the roof, which I
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: believe was the case. The one game that I went
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: to in twenty thirteen, I was at a game Toronto
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: at Houston.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I was visiting my friend who is in Houston.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: We went to the game and I think and Houston won,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: and it was dollar hot dog Night, which you don't
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: see that at a lot of stadiums. One dollar hot
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: dogs baby, And you can really overload on that. You
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: can do the nine to nine to nine challenge if
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: you want to try at nine dogs, nine years and
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: nine innings. I didn't do that, but I think I
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: had probably five dogs and maybe three four beers.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: My buddy and I were drinking quite a bit that
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: entire day, so I don't remember exactly what happened. I
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: do know the Astros won the game, but it was
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: like one hundred and ten degrees in Houston.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: It was in August. Oh boy.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm pretty sure that I'm pretty sure they
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: closed the roof during that one. Then I remember afterwards
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: they actually shoot fire It was a Friday night. They
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: actually shoot fireworks out of the stadium. After the game
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: is over and after everybody's out of the stadium, they
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: do Friday night fireworks, launching them out of the stadium,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: And we actually went up to the roof of my
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: friends the office building that he worked him. I don't
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: know if he had roof access or what it was,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: but I do know we were up on the roof
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: watching the fireworks. Very romantic, very home o werodic obviously
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: walk a walk, Yeah that's right. Fozzy my parents when
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I was a kid. The two cats that my parents
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: were both named after muppets or whatever, and one of
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: them was Fozzy and the other was Kerman. And I'm
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: the one that became the not the frog, but the
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: frog cousin that's owed a dollar hot dog.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Well, no, I mean it was the same hot dogs.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: It was just whatever hot dog they have at It
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: was Minute May Park back then. I don't know what
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: they call it now that I think it changed sponsorships
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: or whatever. Still the same stadium in Houston, but it
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: was just whatever hot dog they served there.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: It was just they sold them for a buck a
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: pop that night.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I mean the hot dogs are fine, They're a typical
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: like stadium dog. Yeah, I mean, Houston's pretty close to
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: the Gulf, so I believe it was pretty human. But
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: I just know it was crazy hot. It was like
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: swamp ass type of shit. There probably a drier heat
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: than it is in Florida though.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I've only talked about one game here.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about the second game right now of the
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: double header, just to get that done.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: This is Biby against Boo Bitch. How about that? Bibby
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Boo Bitch.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: Booby and Biby against Boo Bitch is the starting pitching
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: matchup in game two. Of course, we don't know what
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the bullpen usage is gonna be like in game one.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: We still have two pretty bad offenses, though obviously that's
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: gonna stay the same, and the offense is they might
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: kind of use like you might see some guys that
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: are usually in the lineup only being one of the
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: two games too, to try to give them a little
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: bit of rest too.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what they do with the lineups.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: A lot of this is gonna depend on what the
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen usage is in game one, though, so you kind
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: of have to watch game one if you really want to.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Have all the information.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Sometimes I will fire on game two anyway if I
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: think there's an angle there, regardless of the bullpen, but
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would want to do it here.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Biby for Cleveland, I mean, he's basically their best starter.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I mean he's been a little bit worse this year
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: four point two seven ERA one point two to whip
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: mediocre numbers. He's been worse on the road pretty significantly
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: five point three to seven roady R and he's allowed
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: fourteen of the eighteen runs he's allowed on the road,
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: although he's pitched way more innings on the road, but
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: still a worse home run rate. Cleveland has actually won
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: his last three starts and he's allowed four or fewer
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: and runs in all three, but the last two were
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: the best two and they were against the White Sox
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: in Baltimore, so not very intimidating offenses there. Seventeen to
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: seven strikeout walk race year this month is pretty mediocre
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: as well. Five point nine to one ERA this month
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: not good, although again he did have three road starts
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: this month, and two of them are Cubs Houston, which
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: are not really easy opponents to face. His numbers are
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: good against Kansas City and one hundred at bats. They
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: only have eighteen hits off him a one to eighty
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: average five ninety seven ops, so they do have a
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: lot of walks off in twenty five strikeouts fifteen walks,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: but overall Biby does do pretty well against Kansas City.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Pooh Bitch, who's been shockingly good
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: for Kansas City this year.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: The one thing about Boo Bitch though, is that he's
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: been shockingly good this year. As I belch, dude, I
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: like usually drink like oats over night in the morning
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: for some and it gives me like acid reflux. I
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: don't know what the fuck, man, because I do like
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: those oats and you think that it wouldn't be that
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: crazy as far as acid reflux boo bitch. Two point
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: three eighty RA this year one point one for whip.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: The one thing you gotta worry about with him, though,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: is that there are trade rumors swirling around as the
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: trade deadline approaches, So you gotta worry if that's any
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: sort of distraction for him, thinking, well, like where am
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: I going next? But then again, maybe he wants to
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: pitch better just so he looks better as far as
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: like a trade piece. He's been worse at home this
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: year actually, though still a two point eight five Homie
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: RA is still pretty good decent this month as well.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Three point zero sixty RA fourteen to six strikeout walk
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: ratio hasn't been at his best this month, but Kansas
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: City still won all three of his starts this month.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: He pitched pretty poorly in the All Star Game, but
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: he bounced back okay with a shutout five inning performance
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: against Miami. Didn't strike out a lot of guys in
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: that start though, two strikeouts, so I don't know. I
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: think maybe the All Star Game kind of distracted him
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit because I think it might have been
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: his first All Star appearance, so you might kind of
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: round back into form here. But Cleveland actually has good
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: numbers off him in forty four at bats three eighteen
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: batting average eight, forty two OPS seven to five strikeout
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: walk ratio.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: So looking at how this lines up, man.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: The splits don't look good for either pitcher here, So
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: I worry about the splits for Biby, but I'm kind
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: of thinking that maybe Cleveland is kind of a way
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: to look here, just because their offense hits boo bitch
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: better than Kansas City's does against Biby. But we have
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of tickets in eighty seven percent of
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: the cash on Kansas City in this game. They're rough
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty five to minus one thirty. So the
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: public seems to kind of be leaning towards Cleveland in
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: both games just because they've been hot recently, and the
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: public never likes offenses that are so bad that are.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: As bad as Kansas City's is.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's really isn't that much better, though, but it looks
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: like the cash percentage is coming in on Kansas City
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: in both games. I would worry about it in this game,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: probably more than the first game. As far as Kansas City,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: just because again of those matchup numbers there, and maybe
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: you want to take the bullpens out because you don't
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: know what the bullpens are going to be like in
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: this game. So possibly Cleveland as an underdog in the
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: first five innings might make sense in that game.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: All right, Toronto.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Detroit, this is one of the best series going on
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: right now. Man, Detroit has been awful since the All
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: Star break, though they've now lost five more games in
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: a row. They lost yesterday to Toronto, but again, Detroit
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: did not have a good pitching matchup in this game,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: and they had Montero out there, which is basically bullpen
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: game for Detroit up against Barrios. So you kind of
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: had to expect that Toronto had the upper hand with
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: that pitching matchup, which I did say on the show yesterday.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: So maybe Detroit is gonna wind up with a better
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup today, probably because it's school ball day, so
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: Scooball is pitching. So I kind of expect Detroit's losing
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: streak to at least end temporary, like to end temporarily
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: for one day at least. Here Detroit used a little
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: bit more of their bullpen, but in that game we
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: didn't really see much bullpen usage on either side. Toronto
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen. Toronto right now, I think
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: does actually have the better offense. So I do have
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: everything up right now so you could actually see Toronto. Yeah,
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: they're actually a top several offense right now. Detroit not
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: that much worse though. So you have two decent offens
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: this year to at least decent bullpens. But I think
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: you give Toronto a slight bullpen edge and hitting edge,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: but the starting pitching edge you got to give to
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Schoolable here. But Toronto starting Kevin Gaussman, he hasn't been
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: that bad this year either. Four point zero one ERA,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: one point four to four whip. He's been pretty good.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: I still don't know if that's how his name is pronounced.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: I hear a lot of the professionals saying it's Gossman.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I like gausstman Man. It sounds more.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it has more emphasis behind it.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty consistent both home and away, doesn't have
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: significant splits. He's been pretty good this month. Along three
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in all four starts. Toronto's one
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: four of his last five starts, including two against the Yankees,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: so he is pitching fairly well here three point one
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: eight e R this month, although too many multiple walks
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: in every outing twenty two to eleven strike out walk
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: ratio this month, but still overall, I would say he's
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: in pretty decent form, and he has good numbers against
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Detroit in ninety six at bats a thirty one to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: ten strike out walk ratio, two twenty nine and a
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: half vers and five ninety four oh ps of Gusman
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: does have good matchup numbers there. Yeah, Biby and Boob
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: boo bitch, yeah Boob, I mean.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: I would I would probably laugh.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll talk about another name that I think announcers
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: have to laugh at and a bit when we get
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: to the A's and if you saw what happened yesterday,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: you'll know what it is.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: Yankees team total over.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I would say, yes, I don't I don't hate that
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: as a play, but you'll see what my play is.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: We probably know what it is now because I said
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: I like a side in that game. So if I
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: said yes to Yankees team total over, you probably know
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: what it is. But yeah, four and a half actually
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: seems fairly low. Is that really what the Yankees team
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: total is? That seems low to me, But it looks
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: like the overall totals nine and a half.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: You sure it's not like five five and a half.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Well, I guess because the Yankees actually aren't even the favorite,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: so you might be right. So yes, actually I do
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: like the Yankees team total over since I think they're
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: gonna win the game, So yes, I would agree with that,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Thomas seems like actually a decent number on that. Maybe
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: I should do more team totals because I most I
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: mostly do sides. Well, it's low because they're facing Suarez,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: but I'll get to that and when I get to it,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: which is gonna be in the best Bets segment at
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: the end, So you gotta wait, man, I gotta build
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: up the anticipation, like skipping the pussy.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: But yes, I do think it's a good price on that.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: I think the yank is for once.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: It's a rare situation, man, I think the Yankees are
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: being undervalue today. Anyway, back to Toronto Detroit, here school
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Ball the Man. When I descript this episode today, it's
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: gonna be like, it's gonna be a total mess. It's
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: not gonna be able to figure it out.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: It's gonna split up Detroit Toronto.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: But that's okay. It never really gets it right. Schooble
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: is pitching. Maybe he's in a little bit of a
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: distraction spot though he's actually been on paternity paternity leave,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: which I believe is his second at child. But I
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: don't even think he's missed a star. So I'll look
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: at that in a minute. Maybe he had to start
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: pushed back. Obviously, Schoolble has been great this year two
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: point one to ninety ra point eight one whip.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: We all know this.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: He's one of the best pitchers in the league. He's
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse at home two point four
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: to two ERA as if that really matters. He last
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: pitched six days ago against Texas, So again, I think
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: maybe he just had one start push back. If anything,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: so the paternity leave didn't even really affect his starting
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: pitching schedule.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: I think the games that he missed he just wasn't
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: gonna pitch in anyway, so he timed it right. And
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: then Schooble is so good as a pitcher that when
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: he conceives a child, he knows that his child is
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: gonna be born like during his during the during the
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: games where he doesn't have to pitch, you know what
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, and right after he pitches in the All
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Star Game too. So man, that's all star behavior there.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Maybe maybe he's his wife had to have a c section, man, right, Like,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: really time that thing out planet. That's actual planned parenthood, man,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: Tark Schoolball right there.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Anyway.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So will it be a distraction for him because
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: he has a new baby, I don't know.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is something that you have to kind
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: of think about. That's a thing that MMA.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: That is kind of a thing when it's like an
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: individual sport like that, which starting pitching also is very
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: individual focus. It's called fading the baby. That's an angle
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: in the MMA. When a guy just had a new baby.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: It's like they're getting no sleep, so they're kind of
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: out of form here, So you gotta worry about that.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Maybe Schoolble will be out of form coming into this game.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Generally he is good against Toronto thirty four at bats.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: You only have eight hits off him, one extra base hit,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: which is a home run from Vladdie Guerrero Junior. Two
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: thirty five average allowed, six h one ops, but I
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: mean he's schoolble. I mean he's so good that I
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: don't think he's really gonna miss a beat here. Although
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: money is coming into Toronto, probably because Detroit has been
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: really really bad recently, even though it is Schoolbul on
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: the Mound. You're having to pay a huge tax for
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: school ball, and Detroit's already down for minus two hundred
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: to minus one eighty six. But I think the professional money,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: the feeling is even with Schoolbul on the Mound, like,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: can you really justify them being this heavy of a
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: favorite even though they are good at home, they've been
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: so bad recently in Toronto has been playing well, So yeah,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: I would agree that the price is too high on Detroit.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: We have fifty six percent of tickets on Detroit, fifty
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash coming in in Toronto. I
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: do think Gussman could battle schoobl in this game, but
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I would say the way to probably lean in this
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: game is the under. Although the total has gone up
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: from seven juice to the under to seven juice to
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: the over, we see seventy nine percent of tickets on
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: the over, sixty seven percent of cash on the under,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: so the cash looks like it is coming in on
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: the under. Maybe after that initial move it's.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: A low total.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: Though you do have to worry about school Bom with
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: his new baby there, But I mean, he's so rich.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe he just pays somebody to take care of the
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: baby so he can get some sleep. I don't know,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: but I mean he's so good that I still expect
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: him to do pretty well here. So I think it
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: lines up for decent over excusing underplay here, I think
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: the public kind of leads to an over.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Even though it is schoolble. They see Oh Toronto Detroit.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Both teams can hit, so I think the public kind
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: of with like an over more so in this game.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: But obviously I think both pitchers have good matchup numbers.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: As I showed you, I think they could do well
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: in this game. The bullpens are in decent shape, and
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: they're both decent bullpens, So that's the way that I
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: look in that game, even though the offenses are also
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: fairly good. In that game, Arizona at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh used
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of their bullpen yesterday, man and their bullpen.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: Neither bullpen is really that good. Although Pittsburgh's bullpen is
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: better than Arizona's. Arizona's is just that bad. But I
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: think because Pittsburgh used more of their bullpen yesterday, maybe
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's kind of even out a little bit. Pittsburgh
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: lost yesterday and one to nothing, and I said Arizona
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: might be in like the wrong headspace because they traded
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Josh Naylor, so the management is kind of saying that, well,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: we're not going for the win this season. But again,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: it is, you know, a professional sport, like when players
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: go out there and they play, They're not gonna go
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: out there and intentionally lose. I mean, they still want
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: to be competitive. So Arizona did win the game yesterday
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: one nothing, which I thought that they might have the
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: upper hand like situationally in that game because Pittsburgh was
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: coming off I believe, sweeping Detroit, so Pittsburgh wasn't in
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the greatest spot here. I do think Arizona has a
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: starting pitching edge in this game today as well, and
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: they still have a hitting edge even without nail Or
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offense is so bad, you still have to give
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: the hitting edge to Arizona. Merril Kelly is pitching for
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: the d Backs today. He's having a good season for them,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: three point three two ERA, one point zer six whip.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: He's been very good both home and away, very similar
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: numbers there. His walk rate has been a little bit
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: concerning though this month, even though his team has won
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, he's gone at least five innings
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: in both and he's allowed only three runs combined over
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: those eleven innings and only four hits. He's watched eight
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: guys over that span four and he shouting, so that's
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit concerning man. Overall, good ERA this month
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: in four starts, two point six three ERA hasn't allowed
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: more than three one runs in any start going all
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: the way back to mid June, but eighteen to eleven
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: strike out walk racey as I said, his walk rate
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: has gone up this month, so he's a little bit
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: wild right now.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: So his command is a little bit off right now.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: But maybe Pittsburgh is the way to correct that because
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: their offense is so bad and he does have good
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: numbers against them in fifty six at bats, seventeen to
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: four strike up walk ratio one ninety six average allowed
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: five point fifty four ohps, So maybe Kelly will bounce
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: back and do well here.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Andrew Heeny is gonna pitch for Pittsburgh.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: He's not having a very good season five point zero
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: three ERA, one point three to one WHIP. He's been
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: better at home, though, with a three point five eighty
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: RA significantly better at home, almost an ERA of almost
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: three runs less at home, so he does have the
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: home road splits in his favor here. Pittsburgh in general
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: is better at home, but he needs has been bad recently.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: His team has lost all three of his starts this month.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: He's failed to even make it through uh He's failed
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: to even make it past the fourth inning in any
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: of the three. He's allowed three or more runs in
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: all of them, has a three to four strikeout walk
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: ratio across that span, and allowed seven runs last time
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: out against the White Sox. And all three of these
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: starts are against pretty bad offenses in Kansas City, Minnesota,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: in the White Sox, so he hes in very bad
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: form right now. Fourteen ERA this month now very very bad.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: He's completely fallen off, and now he has to step
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: up and face a better offense than those offenses. Even
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: without nail or eighty three at bats that he has
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: against Arizona, he's held him to a decent, decently low
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: average two fifty three, but seven to seventy four ops
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: is pretty high, and twenty to eleven strike out walk
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: ratio not that good. Either Kettle Marte or Catl Marte,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: ever he pronounce his name, is six to thirteen with
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: a couple of home runs off him. So Merril Kelly,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: you got to give Merril Kelly the upper hand in
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: that matchup. I'd slightly lead to Arizona overall. Again, Arizona's
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't as good, but their offense is way better.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh used a decent amount of their bullpen yesterday, so
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: I think it's either Arizona or pass this game. Arizona's
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: down for minus one thirty five to minus one thirty two,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: so you are having to pay a bit of a
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: price for them on the road. So I don't necessarily
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: love the price on Arizona in this one seventy six
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: percent to tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash coming
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: in in Arizona. I wouldn't mind Arizona first five innings either.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: If you really want to just avoid how bad Arizona's
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't, just go at the starting pitching matchup. I
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: do think you have a pretty big edge there, but
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: you might have to pay even more for that, so
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: maybe you get a cheaper price full game, but again
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: you are having to lay at like a road favorite,
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: which I don't love doing, although you've seen me sometimes
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: I will do that. I'm gonna skip Tampa Cincinnati for
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: right now because that's the game I'm gonna give out
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: a total in Colorado at Baltimore. I got that one
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: right yesterday. Baltimore had played the day before that am
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: returning home, so Baltimore had a rest disadvantage while Colorado
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: came in with rest and Baltimore was traveling and returning home.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: So it was a bad spot for Baltimore. I just
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: didn't love the idea of fanning.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Dean Creamer at home, even though Creamer is definitely a
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: guy that I will fade quite a bit. The Creamery,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know, get into my milk fetish or something
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: like that. Dean Creamery, he's he's kind of a sexy
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: dude man. Actually, not gonna lie, but Baltimore. Creamer didn't
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: do that well in the game. Baltimore lost the game
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: late to Colorado yesterday. What we're dealing with here, though,
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: We're still dealing with two pretty bad offenses, two pretty
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: bad bullpends, pretty bad teams, so we got to figure
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: out which team has the edge in the starting pitching
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: matchup sins of Tello's pitching for Colorado. Obviously, his numbers
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: are bad this year six point four to one ERA,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: one point eight three WHIP terrible numbers. He's been pretty bad,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: very similar both home and away, it doesn't really matter, but
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: this month he's actually been a little bit better, allowing
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: no more than four earned runs in any start this month.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Cross three starts, he's gone at least five innings in
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: all three ten to three strike at walk ratio, so
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is actually down this month, which is
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: pretty good. So his command has gotten a little bit
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: better and five point h nine ERA is better than
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: what he's been doing, although two of these starts are
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: against White Sox in Minnesota, so bad offenses. But he
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: did have an okay start at Fenway Park as well,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: where the Red Sox two hit pretty well usually so
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Senstela actually is pitching fairly well right now, but his
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: numbers against Baltimore are not good, although Baltimore has not
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: seen him a whole lot Baltimore only has three guys
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: who have seen him before, but they have pretty much
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: rocked him. Loreano and O'Neil have done a ton of
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: damage against him in nineteen at bats. They have a
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: five to twenty six average against him in one thousand
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: and three point thirty nine ops, although they only have
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: one walk of five strikeouts against him. Tyler O'Neal is
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: six for eight with two doubles in a home run
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: he and that one walk in one case, So Tyler
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: O'Neal really wrecks him. I wish the Red Sox kept O'Neill.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: Man like him.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: He's a funny dude. I think his wife and.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: His like baby or whatever actually travel everywhere he goes
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: when his team goes on the road, and.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: He is jacked. Dude.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: He looks like he belongs with in the bodybuilding competition
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: from pro Grove Man. I like Tyler O'Neal, wish the
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Red Sox kept him. He's a He's definitely a home
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: run hitter. But anyway, yeah, says to Tellow, doesn't look
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: like he matches up too well against Baltimore. Trevor Rodgers
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Baltimore. He's having a surprisingly good season
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: for them so far. It hasn't pitched that much, but
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: one point seven to four e RA, point eight to
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: seven whip good numbers, point six point one ERA at home.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: You got to expect this won't last though. I mean,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Rogers his Triple A numbers, as I keep pointing out,
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: we're not that good this year, and his career numbers
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: when he was on like Miami, We're not really that good.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: So you've got to think at some point there's gonna
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: be some regression in store for Trevor Rodgers here. And
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: he's been okay this month though too, allowing no more
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: than the tour in runs in any start this month,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: seventeen to six strike a walk ratio. Baltimore's won four
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: of his last five starts, and the one start they
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: did lose, he got absolutely zero run support, and he
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: has a one point four ERA this month. Against Colorado,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: his numbers are okay, only five of their hitters have
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: seen him twenty two at bats, two seventy three average,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: seven to twenty four ohps, three to three strike out
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. This is a very difficult game for me
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: to kind of get a handle on and figure out.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Although Baltimore is just a massive favorite, up from minus
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: two to fifteen minuts two fifty four. I don't think
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: there's any value in trying to come in and play
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: Baltimore at that price. The totals fairly high as well
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: at nine and a half, so Oddsmaker's kind of expecting
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: we're not gonna get good starting pitching or bullpends here,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: which may be the case. I still don't know that
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: you could really trust Rogers here, but I don't know
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: if you could trust these offenses to do that amount
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: of damage either, So it remains to be seen, especially
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: when the pitchers are somewhat unfamiliar to the opposing hitters,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: which usually is an advantage to the pitcher, but in
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: this case maybe not so much because these pitch has
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: been around for a while and I don't think that
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: they're that good. So we'll see what happens in that game. Yeah,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I'm dreaming about that. That was Yeah, that bodybuilding contestman, Yeah,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: so much fun. It was one of my favorite experiences
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: of all of all time. Atlanta at Texas. I got
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: this game right yesterday, and I should have given it
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: out as a play man. As I mentioned yesterday, I
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: liked Texas on the run line. I was close to
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: giving that out as a play. Evaldi was dealing with
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: kind of an arm injury. He only went five innings yesterday.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: That kind of limited him a little bit. They took
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: him out after eighty something pitches, but he was still
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: by far good enough to get Texas in position to
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: win that game, and Texas offense did well against that.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: Atlanta kind of makeshift, like uh starting pitching the thing
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: that they had going.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they were doing.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Atlanta had a bullpend game yesterday, but Texas actually was
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: the team that used more of their bullpend yesterday. Texas
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpend, but Atlanta's isn't that bad, and
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Texas is actually less rested now after yesterday, so Atlanta
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: actually might have a little bit of a bullpen edge
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: coming into this game.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I still don't know that I like Atlanta though.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Texas does have the worst offense, although their offense was
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: good yesterday again against that kind of bad UH pitching
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: situation that Atlanta was in, which was part of the
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: reason why I did like Texas. I wish I gave
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: it out as a play. Atlanta has grant homes pitching
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: in this game. He's been decent this year three point
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: eight one ERA, but one point three to two WHIP
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high, and he has not been
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: good on the road five point one to nine ROADYRA.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: So he has been worse on the road this month.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: He's been again pretty mediocre four point two ninety IRA.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate has gone way down, with only three
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: strikeouts in the last two starts compared to four walks.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: Eighteen to ten strikeo walk ratio this month, so strigo
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: walk ratio has gotten worse. Atlanta has lost a bunch
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of his recent games after they were kind of winning
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: behind him, I thought, But they've lost seven of his
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: last nine starts now actually eight of his last ten
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: as well, So Atlanta does lose a lot of his games,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: even though sometimes it's just that the offense is not
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: backing him up and sometimes the bullpen is not doing
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: well behind him. Because over the last two months he's
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: really only a lot more than three in runs once so,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: but that was his second and last start, so I
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: think he's not in very good form right now, necessarily,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: So I don't really like Holmes in this matchup, but
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: the Rangers have basically never seen him before. Only Taz
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: has ever seen him before, and he's zero for one
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: with the strikeouts, So Holmes at least does have some
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: strikeout ability, and at least Texas's offense isn't that good
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: and they're unfamiliar with homes, so maybe Holmes does have
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an edge coming into this game.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: Kumar Rocker pitching for Texas here. His numbers on the
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: season are not good five point six to sixty RA,
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: one point four WHIP, but I think he does have
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: a pretty high ceiling. Man, he is able to fool
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: guys at the major league level. He's just been kind
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: of erratic, but he's been way better at homes so far.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: He does a more pitcher friendly park, is a one
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: point eight four yr at home, so he's really struggled
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: a lot more on.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: The road this month. That's been the case too.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, he has a four point five r this month,
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: but both of his bad starts were on the road
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: as an eleven to six strangle walk ratio, though three
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: of those walks did come in his home start, but
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: it was also a one hit performance against Detroit for
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: six and a third innings pitch, so he pitched well
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: against a pretty good line up there, So Rocker maybe
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: he is starting to come into for him a little bit,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: but it's hard to say because he did pitch well
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: against Seattle not that long ago, and then he kind
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: of fell like out of form again, so I don't
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: know is he coming back into form, is he gonna
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: fall back out of form. Rocker is very difficult to
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: figure out man, but the Braves had never seen him before, so.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: He might have a little bit of an edge here
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: With the unfamiliarity, both pitchers are pretty much entirely unfamiliar
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: to the opposing lineup, so probably I'm gonna be looking
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: at an under in this game if I was gonna
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: play this game at all. Though, I worry about Texas
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: off Texas both and excuse me a little bit. Texas
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: offense isn't that good. Neither offense is that good, so
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: that does help with the under. We have that unfamiliarity
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: aspect going for us, and I think the public's gonna
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: look at this and not want an under here. Ninety
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: two percent of tickets are on the over or of
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: the ninety eight percent of cash also on the over,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: but the over is just so public and the lines
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: dropped a little bit from eight and a half heavily
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: juiced to the over to being less juice to the over.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: So I do think the actual money seems to be
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under. That's the way that I
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: would look. Maybe limit it to first five innings if
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: you don't really want to deal with the bullpen scenario
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: here where Texas bullpen's a little bit burned out, I
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: could see either approach there. Really, Texas is also down
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: for minus one thirty, might want a way so we
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: see strong market activity on Atlanta. Sixty nine percent of
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: tickets on Texas. Texas is hot right now. Public wants
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: only Texas. They don't want anything to do with this
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Atlanta team that seems to be getting professional money every
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: single game. Man, the professionals just continue to be of
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: the mindset that Atlanta is just not as bad as
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: the record looks, and well, I agree with that. I
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: think you have to take it on a case by
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: case basis, and I don't know that I would want
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: to do that here in this game. But eighty two
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash is coming in on Atlanta thinking
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: there's value getting them as an underdog again.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: We will see.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: At least Texas did use some of their bulpbend yesterday,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: but my preference would be looking towards unders in that game.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: Get Cole as a guest on this show. Uh, yeah,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have a podcast. He should do a fitness podcast, man,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: that's what he should be doing. Holmes and he's living
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: in southern California. Why what is that? I don't really
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: get the the joke there. I just know that Holmes
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: is better pitching at home. I don't know what's does he?
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Does he live in southern cal I mean no, he
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: must live in Georgia, right, because he's on Atlanta. He
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: is from South Carolina originally, which you can kind of
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: tell he's a Southerner, right because look at his fucking
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: like fu man chew in his long hair. He looks
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: like he's chewing tobacco out there.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Chicago, Chicago, we have the the other subway series that's
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: going on here. The White Sox lit the Cubs up yesterday. Man,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I was pretty shocked by that. Ima Naga I had
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: a terrible game. I wasn't shocked then that Howser pitched well,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: because he's been to the White Sox best starter so
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: far or over the course of the year. But I
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: was shocked and e Managa was so bad in that
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: game against such a bad White Sox offense. But this
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: bad White Sox offense has scored double digit runs twice
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: over the last like several games. They've scored ten, ten,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: seven eight, one loss, they scored three, then they scored
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: eleven twelve. So somehow this White Sox offense is all
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: of a sudden exploding. I mean, is that gonna continue
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: into today? I don't know, man, because I do think
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are gonna be pretty angry coming into this game.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: I think the Cubs were coming off of us some
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: bigger games coming into that game against the White Sox,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: and I think they just maybe took the White Sox
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit for granted, But the White Sox might
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: put up some good offense again here, man, because even
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: though I think both, I think the Cubs bullpen is
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: decent and not in terrible shape coming into this game.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: The White Sox bullpen is not very good. Cubs have
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: the bullpen advantage, but Cubs have another one of their
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: not very good starters on the hill today. Kate Horton
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: four point oh FOURTYRA one point three to six whips,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: so his whip is pretty bad. He is a young guy,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: so I mean, he could maybe start doing a little
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: bit better, but he's been pretty shaky and he's been
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: pretty bad on the road. A six point three to
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: five ROADRA is not good this month is walk numbers
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: have been high. He's walked multiple guys in six straight starts. Actually,
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, as good as they are, they're a really
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: good team. Their offense is one of the best in baseball,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: but they have not been good with Horton on the hill,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: which is a lot of that is his falls. They've
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: lost five to seven starts. So when you see a
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: good team like the Cubs still losing basically every time
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: this guy takes the mound, that's not a good sign
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: for him either. He has a two point oh eight
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: ERA this month, but a fourteen to seven strike out
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: walk racios. Again, his walk rate is just way too high,
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: so I don't try trust the fact that he's had
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: two scoreless games this month. I think he's overall not
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: very good. Against the Chicago White Sox, his numbers are
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: not good either. They only have twelve at bats against him,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Vargas is two for two with two runs off him. Overall,
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: they have a four to seventeen average and one thousand
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: and three thirty three oh ps off And even though
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: it is only in that very small twelve at bat
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: sample size, I don't trust Horton at all.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Here. Aaron Savallee is pitching for the White Sox.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: He has not really been good either though four point
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: seven to six ERA, one point four whip. He's been
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home as well, five point
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: zero one ERA. He did get traded, so I don't
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: know if those are his numbers with Milwaukee and the
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: White Sox are just with the White Sox.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: But since the.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: White Socks have had him, they lost six out of
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: his seven starts. They did win his last start, where
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: he pretty much dominated Pittsburgh, but then again, it is Pittsburgh.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is terrible offensively, so I don't know how much
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: you want to take away from that start. He's been
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: pretty ugly in all of his other starts with the Whites.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Thirteen to seven strike a walk ratio this month is
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: still bad. Four point seven to ninety RA not good.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Cubs have a good offense, but surprisingly Savale, even though
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: he was pitching in the Cubs division for a while,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: surprisingly they have not hit him well. In forty seven
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: at bass He's got a nice ten to four strike
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio one ninety one batting average allowed.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: In five to seventy four ops.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: Suzuki does have a home run off, but other than that,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: Savale has actually pitched pretty well against him. So this
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup again looks like it's actually a disadvantage
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs here. Man yesterday should have been like
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: a decent starting pitching for both teams there.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Today, I think you might.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Be able to, like look for the White Sox in
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: the first five innings as an underdog here. I'm not
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: gonna go with them full game because they do have
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: a bullpend disadvantage here, but I think you could maybe
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: play the White Sox first five innings is a big
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: underdog here. Sixty one percent of tickets are on the Cubs.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: Of course, the Cubs are going to be public here
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: of the cash though coming in on the White Sox,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: the money is agreeing with me. Cubs are up for
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: minus one seventy to mis tent eighty four. They're very
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: heavy road favorite. I don't think with Horton on the mound,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: I really don't think that's justifiable.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Man, Horton, here's a who. Even though Savale overall.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Has the worst numbers than Horton does, I think Savali
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: is the more trustworthy of these two pitchers right now,
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: to be honest, man, it has the better matchup numbers.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: So first five White Sox will probably be the way
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: I would look. Maybe you could even do it run
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: line and they might be able to just get through
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: the first five with a tie and still get you
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: a win on that bet.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the Cholos, Yeah, yeah, what's going on? Holmes,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: what's up?
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: I don't live in so cal so I'm not really
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: as familiar with that, although we do have some Hispanics
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: in Boston as well. We do have some pretty good
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: Mexican restaurants in Boston, believe it or not.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: We have a decent.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: Amount of Latinos here, Latinas that can cook and that
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: might make wife material, although they're all crazy. It was
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: a groaner joke, yeah, I mean I like to jokes
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: and stuff like that. I just it didn't register with
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: me for whatever reason. Miami at Milwaukee. This is kind
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: of a weird game yesterday. If you saw this game,
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee lost the game five to one. Milwaukee kind of
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: got derailed a little bit, I think after they lost
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: the Seattle. But it was a bad spot. I mentioned
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: that yesterday Milwaukee was returning on from an extremely successful
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: Pacific Coast road trip, so it was a bad spot
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: for Milwaukee yesterday. And there was one really weird thing
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: that happened in that game yesterday where somebody on Miami,
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who the hitter was. Somebody on
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Miami hit what looked like it was going to be
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: a home run all the way out to like left center.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's center fielder made a really nice play to try
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: to catch it, and it went off of his glove.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: It was about to go over the wall. It hit
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: his glove while it was like over the wall basically,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: and it came back into the field to play. He
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: didn't catch it, but it was in and then out
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: of his glove and came back onto the field and
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: then he had to like chase the ball down to
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: try to get it back in. But the umpires had
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: immediately ruled that as a home run, which is not correct.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: It should be a live ball because if it hits
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: the fielder's glove and comes back into play, that's still live.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: It's not a home run. That's the rule.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: So and I think after it hit his glove, it
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: then hit the top of the wall and came back
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: in So I think if it hits the.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Top of the wall first.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: Without hitting his glove, that's a home run even if
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: it comes back into play. I believe that's how that works.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: But because it hit his glove, then.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: It's playing.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: But the thing, it took him so long to chase
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: it down, or would have taken him so long that
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: hit or whoever it was was gonna get like an
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: inside the park home run anyway. But the umpires, because
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: they fucked it up and called it a home run initially,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: they had to go review it, and then they ruled
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: it a ground rule double because that's the only thing
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: that they could do to try to correct the call.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: But the thing is they should have just left it
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: as a home run.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: That absolutely screwed Miami's hitter there, because he obviously would
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: have had at the very least a triple on that
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: mostly clean inside the park home run, and instead he
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: gets a double out of it just because the umpires
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: fucked it up. If the umpires had just not ruled
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: it a home run on the spot like that during
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: the play, if they just let it go, that's what
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: you should do.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Let it go, let the play play out, then.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Review it, and then if it's a home run, then
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: fixing a change to the home run, right, that's the
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: way better way to do it, because then you don't
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: fuck anything up. But they did the absolute wrong thing
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: and they called it a home run immediately when it
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: might not have been very bad umpiring, but it didn't
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: affect the outcome. Miami still won the game five to one,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: so still, yeah, they should be fired. Yeah yeah, I
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: mean it's it was kind of ridiculous, man, But it
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: didn't affect the outcome anyway. The Brewers they're in a
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: better spot now because again, when a team returns home
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: and they have a bad game in their return home
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: spot there, they tend to play a little bit better
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: that second game back. So that is the case with them.
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: It is the case with Baltimore as well. I should
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: point that out. Baltimore did return home as well, so
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: it is a little bit of a better spot for them.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Now after playing poorly in their first game. But I
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: think maybe it affects the Brewers a little bit more.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens saw a decent amount of usage yesterday. In
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: this game, though the Brewers have I would say, the
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: better of the two bullpens at this point. Their bullpen
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: has gotten a bit better. But bullpens are both pretty
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: used up right now, and the starting pitching matchup looks
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: to me like one that you're gonna look at this
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: and say, oh, these two guys both have goodie ras.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: But to me, I don't think you'd trust either one
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: of these pitchers. Jansen Junk is pitching from Miami. His
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: numbers look good. Three point h nine ERA, one point
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: oh three whip. That's all pretty good, But man, I
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: don't know if we could trust him. He's pretty much
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: the same home and away as the RA doesn't really matter,
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: but I mean, his ERA is the same, so it
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter. He's been pretty good this month. Two
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: point twenty five RA, thirteen to three strike a walk
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: ratio very low walk rate, doesn't allow a lot of hits,
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: doesn't get hit hard a lot. He is kind of
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: a junk pitcher. I mean, his name is kind of appropriate.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: It doesn't strike out that many guys. His command has
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: been really good though, so his command is still on.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: He is facing a good Milwaukee Brewer line up here,
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: although the Brewers have actually hit better on the road
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: than they have at home, and the Brewers have never
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: seen Junk before, so that's kind of the thing, Like,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Junk is like totally trustworthy, but
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: when you have a young pitcher like that and the
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: opposing offense has never seen him before, sometimes the opposing
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: offense does struggle against them. And that won't be the
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: case with Miami. As far as who they're facing. Kitana
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Brewers. He's a veteran. Most guys
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: are familiar with them. He's been around for forever. He
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: has a pretty good three point four to nine ERA
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: this year, still out there doing it, but his whip
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: isn't very good one point three to one whip and
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: he's been bad at home five point one to two
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: Homie Ira, so his splits aren't looking good in this game. Overall,
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: He's continuing to pitch fairly well four point one to
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: five ERA this month and three starts twelves of four
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio is decent. I mean he is
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: another guy. He throws basically junk. He doesn't like blow
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys away. It doesn't strike out a
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: lot of guys. Had two out of his three starts
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: this month with no walks and starts this month we're
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: against the Mets and then the Dodgers twice, so he
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: is facing good offenses recently. It's still getting the job done,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee's won seven of his last nine starts. I
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: believe or what no, I'm again my stroke brain has
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: thrown me off by one. That's actually six out of
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: his last eight starts. My apologies, but still I don't know.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: I totally trust him. But the Marlins are not a
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: very good offense, and only four tes has ever faced
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: Kintana before and he's zero for two with a strikeout,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: So again, it's what do you do with this game? Man?
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: And it looks like maybe he got hit by a
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: pitch or something because the ops was actually higher, but
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: he didn't have a walk, so I don't.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Know what that was about.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: Overall, I don't trust either one of these pictures. They
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: don't throw hard, so they're the types of pictures that
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: I kind of want to fade, but they're both very
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the opposing offense, so again, it might actually
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: be a spot where you might want to look under
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings and just expect the offenses
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: to kind of struggle a little bit against these junk
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: throwing pitchers. I mean, I don't know, man, sixty tickets,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: ninety six percent of the cash on the under total
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: them from eight and a half to eight and a
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: half juice to the unders. That's kind of the way
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in. As crazy as that sounds, Yeah,
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna touch that game, but if
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: I went with the under, I probably would not want
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: to go full game on that. I would kind of
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: want to avoid kind of a sketchy bullpend situation. A's
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: are at Houston. Houston has lost both games of the
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: series of Firement. It made sense that they lost the
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: first game of the series because it was a first
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: game back from a pretty good road trip, so I
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: kind of expected them to not do well in that
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: first game. We did not expect what happened last night
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: with our our favorite guy in Nick Kurtz. Don't say
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: that name too fast, man, Nick Kurtz he had one
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: of the best games in Major League Baseball history yesterday.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: He was six for six with four home runs, eight RBIs,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: a double, and a single. And the double that he
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: hit was way up in Houston Stadium. By the way,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: the stadium I was just talking about it was, and
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: it was Friday night.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was Dollar Hut Dog night. Again.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: It was way out to left center and it was
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: almost a home run, but it bounced off one of
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: the walls and came back in, so that easily could
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: have been a fifth home run, which has never been
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: done before. By the way, four home runs in a
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: game has been done twenty times now in the majors.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: Five home runs in a game has never happened before,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: and he almost did it. Nick Kertz, I mean, he's
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: having an insane rookie season. Man, he's insane. He's really
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: really good. Yeah, I thought that's a great game. But yeah,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: great name and great game. Nick Kurtz. Man, he's our boy.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: I like him. He's a sick hitter.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Man, But that was an embarrassing loss for the Astros. Man.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: The A's actually a pretty good hitting team, man.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: I told you yesterday, I actually didn't like the Astros
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday either because Gusto pitching, he's not
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: very good, So the Astros were a advantage yesterday in
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: that pitching matchup springs for the A's. Actually it's pitching
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: pretty well, so I did kind of lean to the
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: A's yesterday as well in that game, maybe just first
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: five innings yesterday, but I think any way you played
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: the A's, they won that game yesterday. So we're now
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: looking at the Astros being totally embarrassed. The Astros didn't
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: use any of their better relievers yesterday because the game
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: was so out of hand. Neither pitch neither team used
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: any of their better relief pitchers. But we all know
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Houston has a way better bullpen. We're almost looking at
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: the best against the worst here. Houston is second best
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: in bullpen Whip at least or actually tied for best
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: with the Giants and Whip, and the A's are dead
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: last in bullpen whip, not in e RA, but close
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: in e RA as well, So we're looking at one
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: of the top bullpens against one of the worst bullpens.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: So Houston still has a huge bullpen edge here. A's
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: have a slight offensive edge, but not much. Houston's offense
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: isn't that bad Jacob Lopez, you gotta say that he's
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: the worst of these two starters here today. Houston should
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: finally get a win, I would imagine Lopez. I mean,
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: he's shown some signs of being able to strike guys out.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: He doesn't throw hard, though, it's mostly because he has
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of different pitches in his arsenal, so he
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: uses like breaking stuff and his command to fool hitters.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: He doesn't like blow guys away with like a hard fastball.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: He throws low nineties, but he's kind of starting to
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: fall off again.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Four point sixty RA one point three to four Whip.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: He's actually worse on the road, which is surprising because
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: he pitches in that horrible Sacramento stadium.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: But he's way worse on the road.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Five point seven to two Roadyra not the greatest this
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: month of His strikeout rate is still high this month.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: Nineteen strikeouts in fourteen to third innings, six walks a
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: little bit of a high rate. But he's a lot
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: a ton of runs this month. Man, He's allowed four
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: on runs this month. He's allowed homers and four straight
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: starts eleven runs this month, allowed eleven earned runs six
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: point nine one ERA, So not all is good with Lopez,
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: even though his strikeout walk ratio indicate his command is
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: good and then he's fooling hitters and that he should
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: actually be pitching a little bit better than he is,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: but he's just he's getting hit hard. Maybe it's a
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: little bit unlucky of him. And he does have good
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: numbers against Houston. In seventeen at bats one seventy six
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: average allowed four ninety eight ohps.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: I think he faced.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: Houston once early this year and he did Okay, if
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, am I wrong? No? It was it
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: was in June, excuse me, and he did well, actually
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: allowed one run against him in six innings of the
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: walk three guys which struck out nine. So Lopez actually
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: does do fairly well against Houston. But that was the
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: first time Houston had faced him, so Lopez probably had
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra advantage in that game,
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: because again, when a young pitcher is unfamiliar to the
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: posing offense, the offense can struggle a little bit more.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: So Houston might do a little bit better this time
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: out against Lopez, and Houston they got like basically their
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: best pitcher on the mount here, man. I mean it's
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: between Brown and Valdez. But Brown is really really good. Michael,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: what's up man? You're gay cool? We're getting All of
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: our shows are pretty home erotic man hunter. Brown has
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: been really good this year two point five seven ERA,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: point nine to nine whip a little bit better at
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: home two point four to three ERA, so he has
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: the splits advantage. He's the better pitcher over Lopez, there's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: no question about that. But Brown has struggled this month.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: He has a six point four to three ERA this month.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: But again, I think he was distracted around the All
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Star Breakman. He got announced, it was announced that he
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: was going to be an All Star for the first time,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: and then he did bad against Cleveland. He did bad
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: again against Texas, then he didn't even pitch in the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: All Star Game, and then they came out of the
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: All Star break and he wasn't that great against Seattle either.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: But I think he's gonna bounce back. Man.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: The only thing you have to worry about with Brown
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: is because he's so young, is he wearing out. So
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: you got to look at how many innings as he
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: pitched in a season. But I think he's probably not
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: wearing out yet because last year he actually started pitching
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: really well. He had good numbers last year because I
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: remember him being very like hittable early on in his career.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Which was the case two years ago.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: But last year he started becoming really good and he
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: threw one hundred and seventy pitches, threw one hundred and
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: seventy innings excuse me, last year. So I don't think
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: he's tiring out yet. Man, midway through the season. I
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: think this was kind of this. I said that about
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: Logan Webb yesterday though, and I still believe that that's true.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: But Logan Webb did have another bad start yesterday against
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: a good offense. But Hunter Brown, I think he is
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: going to start bouncing back again. Man, I don't think
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: he's worn out yet. Against the A's, he doesn't have
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: good numbers though in sixty three at bats, doesn't have
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: an eighteen to two strike out walk ratio that is
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: really good, but three seventeen average allowed seven to fifty
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: one ohps.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: The A's do have some.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: Hits off of him. Our guy, Nick Kertz has actually
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: never faced him before.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: So the other thing here.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Is that Hunter Brown maybe he has an edge against
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: a guy like Nick Kurtz, who's good.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe in a letdown spot.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz is going to be a very popular prop
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: play today, so you might want to actually look to
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: go against Nick Kurtz in this game, especially because he
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: hasn't seen Brown before, so that might be a way
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: to look here. Brown did face the A's once this year,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: and he did dominate them in six innings, eight strikeouts,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: no walks, one run, allowed, six hits. So Brown, I mean,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: he's a very different animal this year. He dominated the
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: A's this year, so I'm not really expecting Brown to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: pitch poorly here in this game. So I do think
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: Houston has the edge all around in this game, but
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in against them.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: Thinking this line is just way too high.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: I guess they're down for minus two ten to minus
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: one to seventy nine eighty two percent of tickets, seventy
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on Houston. I don't necessarily
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: disagree with that sentiment, just thinking Houston is too heavy
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: a favorite, but I don't think I would want to
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: come in and play Oakland or sorry, the A's in
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: this game here, man, I'd be looking and we have
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: a low total, so the oddspeakers are kind of expecting
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: and it's dropped on the juice to the over here
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: on the seven and a half, so the money seems
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: to kind of be coming inter as the under as well.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: Public go over ninety two percent of tickets on the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: over because everybody saw Kurtz and that explosion yesterday, not
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: Kurts from heart to dark though, Nick Kurtz hard of darkness.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Oh man, we're talking about darkness a lot here.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: Nine percent of the cash on the over can't be ripe,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: and we know public will be on the over here
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: ninety percent tickets on the over. So maybe it's abot
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: where you could start looking towards an under here as well.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: But I would not want to deal with Oakland's bullpen
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: in an underspot. I still think Houston has the edge
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: all around in this game, so I'd probably still be
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: looking for some way to play Houston here. Maybe you
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: want to go, man, I mean a's under their team
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: total actually might make sense because it's a low total,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: and after yesterday's explosion, it would be like a kind
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: of a regression type of play there.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, because it is such a
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: low total.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: You'd have to play them under a very low total
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: as well, probably like getting them to score like two
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: and a half or less in the game.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit risky.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: Washington at Minnesota the bottom for Pete and Cavillia.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: All right, yeah, I get a Kurt's rookie card.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: I kind of want to Kurtz Jersey man Washington at Minnesota. Man,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: I gotta hurry this up. Man, this is gonna be
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: a long video today and I still have to get
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: this stuff out before the one pm start time here
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: to get everybody the information. And I haven't even talked
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: about that game yet, and it's gonna be at the
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: end of the show, which hopefully if people listen to this,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: they'll skip ahead if they want to see that. Minnesota
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: at Washing or excuse me hosting Washington Minnesota.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned, return home from a.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: Road trip yesterday playing in elevation and against the Dodgers,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: So I thought it was a bad spot from Minnesota yesterday,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: but they still won one nothing. Zebbie Matthews actually was
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: really good yesterday. He outpitched Mackenzie Gore, which I didn't
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: really think that would happen.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: I did mention, I kind.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: Of liked you the under in the game yesterday and
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: the Washington side gore walked a ton of guys in
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday, and we saw a lot of bullpen
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: usage from both sides yesterday.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Some of the better bullpen arms came in for both teams.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: But Washington's bullpen is so bad that I think you
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: gotta give them to Soda. The bullpen edge still here,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: even though Minnesota's bullpen is really not that good. So
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: if you're looking for an under in this game, I
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: would say you want to avoid the bullpens. But if
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: you're looking for Minnesota, I would say leaving them as
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: the full game play I think could make sense here,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: and I do think Minnesota has a big starting pitching edge.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: Mitchell Parker pitching for Washington. He's not been good. Five
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: ERA one point four whip, really bad on the road,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: six point four to six roadra that's no good. This month,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty awful. Seven point two e R in
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: three starts, eight to five strike out walk ratio, very
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: low strikeout rate. That ratio is not good. He's been
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: getting tagged this month. Man giving up a lot of
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: runs here. Had a decent start last time out against
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: San Diego. But I don't know if that's really a
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: sign of anything. I still think he's just pitching poorly overall.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: Minnesota in a small fourteen at bat sample size does
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: hit him fairly well to eighty six batting ever, ex
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: use you, that's a lot better than two oh six
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: and nine six ops very high with a home run
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: in there from Carlos Carrea as well. So I don't
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: really trust Parker in this spot.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: Obviously.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan, who's pitching from Minnesota, has been really really good.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: The only thing you gotta worry about is, just like
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: I said with Boobitch, you gotta worry about the trade
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: rumors that are swirling around.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: And is that gonna affect Ryan's mindset here? I don't know.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: But he's been really good this season two point six
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: three ERA point nine whip, he's been really really good.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: He's been basically almost as good both home and away.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter. This month, he's been really good,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: even though he did actually pitch in the All Star Game.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: He's allowed no more than touring runs in any start,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: and he's allowed one earn run in three of the
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: four he allowed zero in his last start in June.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: This month, he has a twenty eight to three strike
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio as well. He's getting a job done.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: He's dominating this month. He's pitching really well. There's no
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: doubt about that. He faced weak offenses Miami, Pittsburgh, Colorado,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay not a great offense either, but still Ryan's
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: very very good against Washington. He has really good numbers
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: as well, and thirty five at bats he pretty much
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: dominates them. He's allowed zero extra base hits, eight to
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: one strike a walk ratio to twenty nine average four
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: seventy nine ohps.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: So everything kind of lines up from Minnesota in this game.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: It's abound.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: Well, not a bounce back spot because they actually won
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday too in that return home spot, but they have
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: the way better starting pitcher, the better of the matchup
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: as well, they have the better bullpen, probably have the
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: better offense doing Washington's offense is not very good, even
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: though Minnesota isn't that good either. Minnesota, you're paying a
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: price though they're off of minus two twenty five to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: minus two thirty eighty eight percent of tickets, only eighty
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on them, so the money
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: is kind of saying, well, the money's kind of fading Minnesota,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: thinking Minnesota is just maybe too heavy of a favorite here.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: It is a pretty high total all the way up
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: from eight to nine, already fifty nine percent of tickets,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the cash on the over. I don't
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: know that I don't want to play an over game
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: with Joe Ryan pitching, although once it gets to the
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: bullpen and you could see both bullpens get a little
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: bit torn up in this game, but I still don't
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: know that I want to go with an over with
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan like this. I think I would actually want
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: to go Washington under their team total in the first
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: five innings. I think might make sense in this one
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: or maybe in the full game, although I don't know
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: if I would trust Minnesota's bullpend really to hold them down,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: but just limiting it to Ryan dominating Washington's hitters, I
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: think might be the way to look here. You could
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: probably get Washington under I don't know, somewhere in the
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: two two and a half range, maybe in the first
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: five innings. I would guess maybe that's the way you
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: want to look in that game. Dodgers at Red Sox,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: my Red Sox. I thought the Red Sox had a
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: decent chance to win that game yesterday, but it was
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: a return home spot after an extra innings big win
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: against Philly, so it wasn't really the greatest spot from them,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: although it looked like the value side was the Red
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: Sox yesterday as a home underdog with a pitching matchup
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: that looked like it could have gone either way. I
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: liked the early under in the game yesterday, and the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: full game went under, but the first five innings didn't
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: because both Sarny pitchers actually want to be allowing a
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: few runs in there, so very unfortunate there. If you
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: had the first five inning under and not the full
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: game under bad, I would apologize for that, or I do,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: but I didn't give it out as a play either.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are in a better spot today though, because
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: again they return home lost the game. Might be a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: better spot here. The Red Sox fans might be extra
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: angry and maybe hungry for a win because the stupid
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: concession workers, in the first time in Fenway history, are
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: striking and it is.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Just it's so stupid, dude.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: When they strike, all they do is just cause a
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: scene outside and just disrupt everybody's day. They bang on
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: drums and start yelling at you. It's like, fuck off, dude,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: like we know what you're doing here. And then they
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: get mad because scabs come in because obviously the Red
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: Sox are not gonna host a game again in a series,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: a weekend series against the Dodgers and not sell concessions,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: so obviously they have other workers come in and work
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: the concession stands. And then the people who are striking
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: are mad. Well, it's like, then fuck you then, because
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: you do a job that's so unskilled that people can
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: just come in and do your job and they're willing
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: to do it. Yeah, they're willing to do it for
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: that amount, so fuck off. You should lose your job,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: then fuck the hell off. Yeah, it's all and it's
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: all unionized. I mean it's all bullshit, man. So that's
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: going on at Fenway here. But I think the Red
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: Sox have a better shot to win this game here.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: They're at least a favor here. They do have the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: better of the two starting pitchers. Though people gonna are
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: gonna hail this is a really good starting pitching matchup
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen wise, I think the Red Sox have the bullpen edge.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: Dodgers did use some of their bullpen yesterday, more than
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox did, and the Dodgers already have the
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: worst of the two bullpens at this point. Red Sox
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: don't have the better offense. The Dodgers do have the
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: better offense. So the Red Sox offense is good at home,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: so Red Sox can definitely compete as far as how
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: their offense does at home. Kerse Shaw's pitching for the Dodgers,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: and if this was a few years ago, this would
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: be well maybe if this was last year, even maybe
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: it would be a crazy pitching matchup. But I don't
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: know about Kershaw this year, man. I mean, he's still
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: pitching fairly well. Three point two seven ERA, one point
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: two to five WHIP. He's been better on the road
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: one point eight to eight road Ray. He's still trying
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: to come back from that injury. But the Dodgers have
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: lost his last two outings now, which we're both against Milwaukee.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Though he pitched decently in really kind of both of
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: those games. But he didn't even last five innings in
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: the most recent outings, so I think when he went
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: one hundred pitches against the White Sox. I think he
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: kind of overextended himself a bit, and then he got
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: named to the All Star Game. But he's been an
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: All Star so many times. I don't think that was
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: really a distraction for him. I just think he's kind
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: of falling a little bit out of form here.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: He's allowed twenty hits in sixteen to third innings this month.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: That's not a good sign. Allowing more hits than innings,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: pitch only eight strikeouts, so his strike gout rate has
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: gone way down. Seven are in runs at three point
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: eight sixty RA, but three walks. Three walks isn't that bad,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: you know, in and of itself, but the strike out
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: rate has gone way down, So I think Kershaw is
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: somewhat hittable right now, even though he's not allowing that
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: many runs. He's a lot more than three on runs
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: twice so far of the season. Red Sox don't have
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys who have seen him before. But
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: the three guys who have seen him before, Bregman ref
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: Sneinern's story were really just Bregman and story of both
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: done damage off of my Overall, in thirty four at bats,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: he does have a good eleven to two strike a
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: walk ratio against him. Bregman is homeern off him twice.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: Those are his.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Only hits off him though, two ninety four average overall
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: eight ninety two ohps. So the Red Sox hitters who
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: have seen him before I have done okay against Kershaw. Maybe
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: he will have an edge against the Red Sox hitters
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: who haven't seen him before. But he's so well known
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: that some of the Red Sox, I mean, you can
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: find you know, scouting on him or whatever. I know
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: it's not the same as facing him in a game,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: but still, Kershaw is not really a mystery at this point.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: And Garrett Crochet, you got to give him the upper
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: hand of the starting pitching matchup. I mean, he's the
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: much younger pitcher and he's really in like peak form
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: right now two point one ninety one point six whip.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: He has the better stuff, the better velocity, and the
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: better strikeout stuff over Kershaw here. Now he's a little
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: bit worse at home two point three to five yra,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: but that's still obviously very good. This month, he's been
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: really good. In three straight starts the Red Sox have won.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: How many starts is this since the Red Sox have
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: started playing well offensively. Eight of his last nine starts
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: have all been wins for the Red Sox. He's allowed
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: more than two horn runs only twice over that span,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: al though those are both starts who didn't do well
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees and Cincinnati will He gave up five
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: earned runs in both of them, but he had an
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: eighteen to two strike out walk ratio in those two
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: games too, so he was still.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: Commanding his pitches.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: This month, including a start at Wrigley Field, He's still
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: pitching really well, allowing only three runs in twenty innings
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: twenty one to four strike out walk ratio, also a
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: complete game against Tampa in there, so he's definitely in
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: good form right now.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: He is the pitcher that isn't better for him the Kershaw.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's at a better part of his career
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: than the Kershaw is, but he's facing a good Dodgers lineup.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have hit him decently, but not that well in
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: twenty one at bats to eighty six average, but they
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: have not hit him for a lot of power or
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: anything like that, or walked a lot nine to two
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ration. You only one extra base hit,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: a double from bets six't eighty one oh ps overall
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: is pretty low. Nine to two strike out walk ratio
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: pretty low as well, so curshe. I think you give
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: him the upper hand in the starting pitching matchup here.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: I would lean to the Red Sox in this game.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: I think they do have the bullpen edge as well,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: so full game to me does make sense. Uh, they're
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: up for minus one thirty minus one thirty nine here,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: seventy four percent of the cash coming in on the
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, fifty eight percent of tickets on the Dodgers,
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers of the public team public coming in seeing
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers have the better record. They won yesterday, everybody
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: thinks the Dodgers had the better offense, which they do.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: They're gonna look at this and think, oh, this is
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: a huge pitching duel, and I get the Dodgers as
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: an underdogs, so they're gonna want to take the Dodgers.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: I would disagree with that sentiment obviously.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: I think krishe is actually probably well prepared to outdual
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: Kershot here in and again, if Kershaw's out of the
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: game before Crochet is, which may very well happen, Dodgers
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: already are of the bullpend disadvantage, and they will have
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: to use their bullpend sooner as well, so that could
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: kind of carry through the game as well. So I
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: do lean to the Red Sox in that game. Yeah,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: the leftist losers, I think already showed that a Fenway Frank. Yeah,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: the Fenway Franks. They've changed a bit, man. They actually
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: changed their hot dog suppliers. So, I mean, it's nothing
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: that special, but I mean it's like it's a pretty
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: ordinary hot dog, to be honest. But I mean it's
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: at Fenway, so it is way too expensive though. You're
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: probably paying like nine bucks for a fucking hot dog now,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: and it's not even a big hot dog.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: It's just a normal size dog.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: But last time I was at the game, I haven't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: been to a game this year, but last time I
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: was at the Red Sox last year, I was out
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: in the bleachers with my dad and my sister. We
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: went to a game against Toronto and my brother in
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: law as well. Don't want to forget him, Um that minute,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: sound like I gonna like him. That's not even the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: case at all.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: I do. Actually, what was I gonna say?
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, one of the concession guys had hot dogs
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: left at the end, so it was like late innings
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: and the guy was just trying to get rid of
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: the hot dogs because he knew he wasn't gonna be
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: able to sell any of them anymore. So it was
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: just free hot dogs all over the place. So I
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: had a couple of free dogs at that game. I
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: didn't want to like hoard them. It's like, you know,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: equality and all that shit rights. Let some other people
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: have the dogs as well. But I think I had
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: two hot dogs, i think, and didn't have to pay anything,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: and normally you pay nine bucks. So yeah, that's right.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: Hell yeah. The way to eat the Fenway Frank. By
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: the way, I will tell you right now is Goulden's
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: brown mustard. That is the only topic that you put
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: on it. That is my opinion. I think it's the
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: correct opinion. Catchup is disgusting on a hot dog. It's
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: a very weak condiment. Yellow mustard is very slovenly as well.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: Those are like cookout condiments. Man, that's not what you want.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: Brown mustard is what you want.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: That is the way to go. It's a little bit spicier,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: it's a better muster. Joey chest not.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think Fenway they did use Hebrew National, which,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: of course, because you know, Israel owans everything, so they
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: did use Hebrew National hot dogs any think for a while,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: but now I think they might use Kaiyam. I'm not sure,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: but anyway, but that means there's no pork in the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: hot dogs, right, That means they're all beef because it
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: can't be pork. It has to be kosher, can't be pork.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, whatever it is, I mean, it's not a
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: bad hot dog. I mean it tastes fairly good, even
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: though it's one of those boiled you know, you know,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: stadium dogs. But still I would yeah, obviously I'm agreeing
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: with that. Yeah, I think they are kosher, but they
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: taste pretty good. Put the brown mustard on that thing.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: Not bad, not bad at all. All right, I already did
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: Cleveland Kansas City doubleheader, San Diego at Saint Louis. Man,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be a long, long video here. Saint
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: Louis is on the verge of a sweep here, and
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure that they don't get it here.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: The one issue is, of course San Diego is gonna
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: show up with some fire or not. They're not on
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: the verge of one of my saying because they play
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: tomorrow too. But Saint louis Is won the first two
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: games of the series so far with a shutout yesterday,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: so in a way San Diego should show up with
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: some fire and bounce back here potentially. But I think
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: San Diego has a big starting pitching disadvantage here, although
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: I do think San Diego has the bullpen edge because
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: they have the better bullpend and Saint Louis to finish
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: off that game you sort of use like all their
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: best relief pitchers yesterday, So Saint Louis is at the
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: bullpend disadvantage here. They are at a bullpend disadvantage. But
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: I think San Diego has the weaker starter here. I
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: do not like Randy Vasquez. You know that by now
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: if you watch me. Three point seven three era is good,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: but one point four to one whip that is not
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: good at all. He puts way too many guys on base.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: He's worse on the road. Four point three four ERA.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: I just don't see how you could trust this guy.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio this month is ridiculous, dude, two
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and eight walks in fourteen to two thirds eighties
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: pitch and fifteen hits on top of that. And yet somehow,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: and his ground ball rate is even high, and somehow
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: he's allowed only five ened runs this month. How can
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: that possibly continue? You cannot possibly strike out absolutely nobody,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: walk a ton of guys, allowed a bunch of hits
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: on top of that, and keep the runs at bay.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: It can't happen.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: And again, last time, I didn't strike out anybody against
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: Miami and I lost. That was a loss of mine
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: that I give it on the show. I give up
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: Miami first five inning, he walked a guy, gave up
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: seven hits in four and a third innings, no strikeouts
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: in Miami still only managed one run off him.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense. He's gonna implode again at some point.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: Du Vasquez, his numbers are just I mean, his numbers
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: indicate that he should regress in a major, major way.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: I don't get it.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: And three of his last four starts he hasn't even
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: made it past four and a third innings.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: And yet San Diego has actually won his last five starts.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: Even though their offense hasn't even been very good, their
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen is at least good and kind of holding his
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: game in check there, but I don't trust him at all.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: Only has fifteen at bats against Saint Louis, which is
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: not a lot of at bats.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: They do have a three point thirty three average.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: Against him in eight seventy eight OPS, despite not even
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: having a home rod off him. The only extra RaSE
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: hit is a triple from Donovan, and their OPS is
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: still that high. Two walks compared to one strikeout, so
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: again not striking guys out. I don't see how you
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: can trust Vazquez at all. Libratorious pitching for Saint Louis.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: He's been decent this year. He's starting to pitch a
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: little bit worse recently, though, which is a concern. Four
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: point one three ERA this year, one point two to
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: five whip. He has been worse at home, which is
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: another concern four point five to nine ERA at home.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: So if you like Libratore, I would agree that I
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: like him better than Vasquez, but I do think you
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: have to dial it back a little bit, just because
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: over his last three starts he's walked five four and
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: then one in his last start when he only lasted three,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: and he's gave up six earned runs, so Atlanta didn't
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: strike out anybody, so over that span we're looking at
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: a nine to ten strike a walk ratio from him,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: which is not good. So all of a sudden, Libratory
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: is out of command, out of form, walking by guys,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: so I do worry about that. Prior to that, he
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: was pitching really well though for the most part, so
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: maybe he will come back into for him at some point,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: and Saint Louis had won four starts in a row
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: of his before they lost his last one. I still
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: think he's better than Vasquez. His numbers are not horrible
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: against San Diego. It's a very small fourteen at bats
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: sample size, though Machado does have a home run off him,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: so they do have an OPS. It's a little bit high,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: but a two fourteen average is quite low. Eight twelve
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: ops though, so the OPS is a bit high. But
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: still I do think Libratry has the better of the
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: match up here and is the better pitcher over Vasquez,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: so I'd be looking maybe Saint Louis first five innings
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: in this game might be the best way to look
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: at this, because you do not want to have to
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: deal with their bullpen disadvantage. In my opinion, even though
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: I do think Saint Louis probably does have the better
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: bats over San Diego at this point. San Diego, remember,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: is also bad on the road. I just think Saint
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: Louis generally is not as good as the record looks,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: but San Diego is a bad road team. Saint Louis
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: isn't as good as the record looks, but still, yeah,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: I mean San Diego I think should be fatable here.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis up for minus one forty one forty five
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: fifty four percent of the cash on Saint Louis, with
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the cash coming in on the Podres.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: So the one thing that worries me again is that
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: Libratore is in kind of bad form right now. But
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: other than that, Saint Louis first five innings looks good
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: to me, although you might have to pay a bit
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: of a price for it. So maybe you look towards
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: like a run line in that case or something like that.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: But that's the way that I look.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: At that game.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: Mets at Giants, try to get this done a little
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: bit over an hour and a half at least. Man
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: of course, the Mets blew out the Giants, eight to
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: one yesterday, Giants rereturning home from a road trip. It
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: was not a good spot for them. Mets to have
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: the better offense. That's one thing to keep in mind.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: Both teams us a little bit of their bullpen yesterday.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: The Giants to have the bullpen advantage here. Neither bullpen
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: is that bad, but the Giants have one of the
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: top bullpens in baseball, so you give them the bullpen edge.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: Obviously, you give the Mets the hitting edge here.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: Giants are in a bounced back spot though, because again,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: when you return home and you play really poorly in
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: that first game, you to do better the next time out.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: So I think San Francisco is in a better spot
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: for that reason. Started pitching. David Peterson pitching for the Mets.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: He's a guy that I still can't figure out. I
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: still think that his like his peripherals like make it
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: look like he should not be pitching this well, and
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: he's continuing to pitch well. Two point nine ERA one
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: point two two whip. His numbers are pretty good in
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: that respect. He is worse than the road though, four
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: point h two Roady Ray, so he's not as good
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: on the road this month. Is a point nine to
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: two era though even though the All Star distraction might
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: have come into play there, he did pitch in the
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: All Star Game. His team has won two of his
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: three starts this month. He has a fourteen to four
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio, only allowing two runs and fourteen
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: hits in nineteen two thirds in so again, he's continuing
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: to pitch well. He's continuing to induce a ton of
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: ground balls, which is how he kind of gets out
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: of putting guys on bas His ground ball rate is extreme,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: so that is pretty good for Peterson. His numbers are
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: not good against the Giants though, in thirty nine at
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: bats ten to nine strike a walk race you bad,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: although Adamis has seven of those walks three to zero
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: eight average allout eight to ninety nine ops and Flores
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: does have a home run off Endevors is pretty good
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: four for ten off him with a double, so Peterson
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: not the greatest matchup there for him against these Sam
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: fran hitters, even though Sam Franz doesn't even have a
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: good offense.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Robbie Ray pitching for San Francisco.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: He's having a good season basically from out of nowhere,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: even though he's in his early third he's very strange
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: two point nine two ERA, one point one to three whip.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: He's been quite good at home two point five to
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: three home ERA, but recently he's been following off a
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: little bit three point sixty RA this month. He got
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: named to the All Star Game as well, so that
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: was a little bit of a distraction in there. So
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: maybe he was distracted coming out of the All Star break.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: He didn't pitch in the All Star Game, but he
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: came out of the break and only went four and
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: a third against Toronto on the road and gave up
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: two of them runs five in runs, walked five guys
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: in the game. That is not a good sign. So
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: he might not be in very good four right now.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: But you could argue that it was a distracted spot
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: for him and maybe he should improve again in this start.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: That is possible as well. Twenty one to eleven strike
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio this month doesn't look good, but again
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: a lot of it is because of that one really
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: bad start against Toronto.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens here.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: His numbers are mediocre against the Mets' sixty at bats
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: twenty one to choose. Strike out walk ratio is really good.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: Two fifty average is good as well, but seven to
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: ninety one ohps a little bit high because he's allowed
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: some bombs Nimo Marte and Lin d'Or all of home
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: runs often, So I mean, I could see maybe an
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: argument for an over in this game. The total came
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: in really low at seven and a half, with the
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: bullpend usage being a little bit high. Now starting pitchers
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: maybe both being a little bit questionable, and their matchup
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: numbers is not looking that great total flip from being
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: juice to the under. The juice to the over taking
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: sixty six percent of the cash on the over, so
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: the money looks like it is coming in on the over.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: I would probably prefer the San Francisco side, though I
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: actually think I kind of like raid amounts back, and
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: I like his matchup numbers more than I like David Peterson,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: and I like the fact that he kind of strikes
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: out more than Peterson does. Mets are very public, especially
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: after they blew out San Francisco yesterday. You know, the
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: public loves offense. Seventy one percent of tickets only sixty
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: five percent of the cash. You have a situation, you
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: have a very public road underdog in the Mets here
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: in San Francisco down a little bit for minus one
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: to fifteen to minus one zero nine. So you're getting
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: a pretty more than reasonable price on San Francisco here.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: So I do like San Francisco in that game as well.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: Seattle at Anaheim. Anaheim lost the first game of this year's
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: excuse me, and then one last night, both low scoring,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: close games.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: Still think Seattle, I mean, obviously has the bullpen edge here.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: We can't trust the Anaheim bullpen at all, even though
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: they have looked okay the last couple of games. I
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: don't think you could trust Anaheim's bullpen whatsoever. I would
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: say Seattle does actually have the better offense too. Kirby
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Seattle.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: His numbers, I mean, his era doesn't look good four
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: point sixty five, but his whip pretty good one point
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: one to three. He has a five point four road
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: he alright, though he's been bad on the road so
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: far this year. Although he's kind of trying to come
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: back into form he was injured for a while, he hasn't.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: Really been that bad.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's allowed four or fewer earned runs in
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: every start except early on when he tried to come
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: when he first came back from his injury. He's allowed
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: four in runs each of his last two starts. One
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: was at Detroit and the other was at home against Milwaukee,
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: two pretty good offenses, and we know Milwaukee's good.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: On the road. He still did decently in those starts.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: This month.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: He is an eighteen to four strikeout walk ratio. Seattle
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: is still won three of his last four starts and
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: actually six of his last eight.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: He is still in.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Good form right now in my opinion. He induces a
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: decent amount of ground balls too, so four point one
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: five ERA this month actually a little bit misleading based
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: on the way he's actually been pitching.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: He is pitching okay against Anaheim.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: He has pretty good numbers in ninety two at bats,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: so even though they're very familiar with them, they don't
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: do that well against him. Twenty six to four strike
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, two thirty nine average allowed, six eighty
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: four ohps, so curbing. Not bad numbers here, and I
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: think he is the much more trustworthy pitcher over Tyler Anderson.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: If you watch my show and you know I don't
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: like this guy. His numbers are really starting to fall
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: apart after he looked good early in the season.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: But he is not that good.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: He's in his mid thirties. He's never really been that good.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: The regression is happening, and it was pretty predictable. Four
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: point four to three ERA, one point four to one
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: whip is really not good. He has been better at
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: home though, three point one two ERA at home, so
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: he's definitely better at home. He's been okay this month
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: with a four point five ERA, allowing no more than
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: foreign runs in any start. But I trust him a
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: lot less than I trust Kirby Man because his strikeout
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is a lot worse sixteen to eleven this month.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: He's walked two or more in all in.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: Every out and going all the way back to mid June,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: although most of those are two walk outings when he
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: walked five last time out against the Mets. Yes, he
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: faced some pretty difficult offense is to face, and a
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: lot of them are on the road this month, Mets Arizona,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: at home, at Toronto, at Atlanta. I mean, Atlanta's not
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: that that great of an offense he faced. He had
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: to go to New York and then he faced Boston
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: in the last couple of starts in June, so he
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: has had a difficult.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: Stretch of opponents. He is not that bad against Seattle,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: you though, they're pretty familiar with him. One hundred and
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: twenty two at.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: Bats, thirty two to thirteen strike a walk ratio is
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: still kind of too many walks two thirty eight average
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: seven h five ohps.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: Not really bad numbers though.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: For Anderson there the money is coming in on La too,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: on Anaheim, so Seattle probably again, the professional money's probably
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: just saying that's too heavy a price. A lot of
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: times it just has to do with the price more
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: than like what the matchup is and whatever. But you
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: know me, I'm a matchup in stats guy when it
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: comes to baseball, Seattle Down. Although I do market read,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: and I do read situations as well. I read situations
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: in every sport man, but way more heavily in every
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: other sport besides baseball. Leaning to the situation Seattle down
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: for minus one forty five to minus won twenty five,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: I very public. Seventy eight percent of tickets only uh
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: fifty eight percent of the cash coming in on or
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: excuse me, except that fifty eight percent of the cash
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: is coming in on Anaheim, so I was trying to
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: read the comments at the same time. So Seattle is
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: very public, but the cash is coming in against them,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: so Anaheim looks like an anti public home underdog here.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: But again I don't trust Anderson. I don't trust Anaheim's
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: bullpend either, so I don't really see I don't really
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: think it's very enticing to take Anaheim here, man, let's
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: just put it that way. I don't really I don't
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: see it myself. Uh So the money coming in there
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: probably just a matter of price there. But again I
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: don't love it. I would actually probably slightly lean to
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: Seattle in that game. I just don't think it's worthy
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: of a play either.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: The problem with the offense versus defense In every sport,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: the public overrates offense, So if you're betting, you usually
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: do better if you bet on the defense because the
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: public always wants offense. So defense is the better thing
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: to bet on, and I think it does win out
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: more often than offense doesn't. Basically every sport, althoughe in baseball,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: it's pitching, pitching and defense because defense is basically fielding.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: But I think good pitching outweighs good offense in baseball,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: good hitting, good pitching outways good hitting, and in basically
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: every other sport, good defense outweighs good offense in my opinion,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: for the most part, at least more or less. Let's
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: get to my plays here, man. It's the best bet
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: segment before we get out of here, and you kind
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: of know what they are already. First one up is
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: coming up in a little bit over an hour now,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: and that is the Yankees. I told you, even though
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: I'm a Red Sox fan, I don't want to do it,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: but I can't factor in my biases here. Man, We're
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: gonna go with the Yankees and you can get them.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: When are you ever gonna get the Yankees at home
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: in the Bronx as basically an underdog a plus one
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: hundred price. This is a This is a value play, man.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: I think there is value on playing the Yankees in
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: this game. You might have to get them as a
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: slight favorite, but I think that's still fine as well.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: Philly has actually moved up a little bit.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: They're actually up for my one win minus one twenty eight,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: no sixty percent to take a sixty three percent of
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: the cash coming in on Philly. I don't know that
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: I buy more of the cash is coming in on Philly. Man.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: Even though on the surface.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: You look at this, Suarez has the way better era
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: ever Stroman, And yes, I even I kind of prefer
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: Suarez over Stroman, But you gotta look at what's going
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: on in the whole game.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: You gotta take this and take everything into account in
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: this game. I think Philly is being overvalued here. I
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: don't think this should be a favorite on the road
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: like this was Suarez. I don't think he's really as
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: good as his Zra would suggest. I know Stroman is
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: not that good, but when we dig into the matchup numbers,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: you'll see why I think this is worthy of a
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: play here. But also when it's full game, you have
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: to take into account the batting, and you got to
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: take into account the bullpens. Oh yeah, who has the
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: best hitting in all of baseball ops wise? Yeah, that'd
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: be the Yankees. So I have to give the Yankees
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: the offensive edge here, especially at home. Phillies are good,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: but they're eighth offensively in OPS, so they're not as
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: good as the Yankees bullpen wise. Even though the Yankees
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen has not really been that good, they're eighteenth in whip,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: which is not that battle.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: They are worse in era.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: Philly has an era that's almost as bad, but their
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: bullpend their whip is actually higher. So I think I
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: give the Yankees the bullpen edge as well here over Philly.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: So again we're looking full game here. It has me
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: looking at the.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: Yankees here, man, Yankees, even though yesterday, if we look
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: at the game yesterday, Philly just blew out the Yankees yesterday.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: So again I think that helps our play too, because
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: that was kind of a misleading result a little bit. Man.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: Philly out hit the Yankees fourteen to ten, but blew
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: them out on the scorebard twelve to five. Based on
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: the amount of hits, it looks like it should have
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: been a little bit closer. I mentioned I like the
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: over in yesterday's game, and that certainly happened, but Yankees
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: had a bad picture going. Both teams used their bullpends yesterday,
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: but I think we saw a little bit more bullpend
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: usage from Philly from like their better relievers. Right because
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: the game was over, as far as the Yankees are concerned,
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: Philly wanted to make sure they hung on.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: To that win.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: So I think you gotta give the Yankees the bullpen
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: edge here and then we'll look at the starting pitching.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: It almost looks like it's a pitching mismatch in favor
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: of Suarez, because he's been really good this year. Ron
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: your Suarez two point six six ERA, one point one
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: to five whip. But and yes, he's been better on
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: the road to one point four to seven e R
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: on the road, I get it. I mean, his splits
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: line up nicely for him here. But I don't trust
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: him at this point at all.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: He's a guy that I said he was gonna regress
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: after he had a hot start last year. He seems
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: like a guy that just kind of wears down at
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: some point, and it happened last year, and I think
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: it's happening again here.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: This month, he has not been anywhere near as good
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: five point six three R. And it's not like he
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: faced like a murderer's row of offenses either. He faced
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: the Reds San Diego at San Diego's pitcher friendly park
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: in Anaheim. Those are not great offenses. And he had
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: a five point six three ERA and sixteen innings, twenty
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: hits allowed, ten or runs allowed, nine walks, and fifteen strikeouts,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: so he's along a ton of walks, multiple walks in
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: every start he is in bad for him right now.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: And last start last time out of against Anaheim at home,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: he got bombed against Anaheim, didn't even make it five innings,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: a lot, nine hits, four walks, six earned runs against
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: a mediocre offense.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: That is not a good sign. Suarez against the Yankees
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: also not very good.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: Fifty four at bats, although a sixteen to one strike
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio looks good, but the Yankees have been
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: able to hit him three point fifteen batting average, eight
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: forty six ops, couple of dingers in there from Grisham
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: and McMahon, who, by the way.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: The Yankees just got.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: So the Yankees just traded some prospects to get McMahon
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: the third basement over from Colorado. McMahon probably gonna be
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: excited to be in a new environment like this. I
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: don't know if he's gonna play today, though, but I
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: think that was a good move for the Yankees. Unfortunately
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: for me. That's gonna bolster the Yankees offense even more so.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: I think it's gonna help them in this game. If
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: he is playing. Marcus Stroman on the other side, I
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: know his numbers are terrible this year five point six four,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: one point four to eight whip. He's not a great starter,
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: although he is at least better. If you look at
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: his career numbers, he's at least better than those numbers
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: would suggest. It has been worse at home, so I
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: know we're going against the splits here six point four
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: sixty R at home. But he's pitching a lot better
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: than Suarez as of late man he's allowed three.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: Or fewer earned runs in every.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: Start going all the way back to us since he
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: came back from injury. So he pitched early in the season,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: wasn't doing well, got injured. Since he's come back from injury,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: he's made four starts. He's allowed three or fewer earned
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: runs in all of them. The Yankees have won three
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: out of the four, and this month he has an
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: eleven to three strikeout walk ratio. Says command is kind
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: of getting there a little bit more. Yes, he's allowed
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: some home runs and more hits than inigs pitch, so
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: he's getting hit a little bit. But I still think
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: that he's the pitcher that's in the much better form
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: right now. So I think again, this is a value.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: Playing the Yankees as well, getting them as an underdog
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: looks like the right way to go. Here, man and
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: fading the public, and we have the better matchup. I
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: think here because Stroman actually has good numbers against Philly
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: in a big one hundred and thirty nine at bat
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: sample size twenty eight to nine, strike out walk ratio
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: one seventy three, average allot of four point fifty eight ops.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: So he's actually pretty much completely dominated Philly.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: So I like this a lot. Actually, we're gonna go
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: Yankees in this game. I don't like the fact that
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. You know that, I think they're gonna win
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: the game. I know boo them, but I mean we're
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: I told you no bias, and here, wherever you can
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: make money, that's where we're gonna go. And then the
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: last play, as you know, I told you I found
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: this in even money out there. It is raise reds
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: under the total of nine, even though I know the
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers will put up a total in nine. I know
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: we're looking we're dealing with a pitcher friendly ballpark here
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, but I think the weather conditions. We do
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: have the weather report up here. The weather conditions are
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: not exactly that conducive to a high scoring game here.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be rainy, so you know, if you have
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: the thicker like humid air there, like the rain actually
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: might be bad, you know, as far as like home
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: runs are concerned.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: The wind is blowing left to or right to left,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: excuse me.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: So there's no wind blowing out here either, so that
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: doesn't look that bad for an under here as well.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: But I like the starting pitching matchup as well. I
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: don't hate either bullpen. I know Cincinnati used some of
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: their bullpend yesterday, but they still kind of left their
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: best relievers alone, so I'm still gonna go full game here.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, we're looking at decent bullpens. We have Tampa
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: Bay and Whip at eleventh and then they're decently rested
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: at Cincinnati a little bit less well rested, like I said,
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: but they're fifteenth. So we have okay bullpens. And the
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: hitting is pretty mediocre here. We have Cincinnati and Tampa
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: right here at a thirteenth for Tampa and fourteenth for Cincinnati,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: ops y, So we're not dealing with you know, great
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: offenses here either. And I like the starting pitching matchup
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: with Pepio. I know a lot of the advanced analytics
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: guys really don't like Pepio, but I look at his
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: numbers and I kind of like it. Three point five
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: nine ERA, one point one to six whip not bad
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: on the season. He's been slightly worse on the road
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: three point eight three ERA, but that's still not bad.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: He's also used to pitching in a home unfriendly park
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: because that's where Tampa plays this year, so he's pitching
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: well this year despite playing in his own home run
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: friendly parks.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: That's not a bad sign. This month, he's been fine.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: Four point five R.
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: Isn't that good, some of it because he allowed five
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: runs last time out against Baltimore, but he still went
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: six innings, eight strikeouts, one walk. He got tagged from
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: the home run, so that's the worry here. He's allowed
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: seven home runs this month, that is the concern. But
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: prior to that, he wasn't really allowing as many home runs,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: so I think maybe that got.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: A little bit fluky.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: He did have to pitch at Fenway at Detroit. That's
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: not really that easy to do. Overall this month, I mean,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: he's a lot fewer than one hit per inning, that's good.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: Twenty six to eight strike a walker issue more than
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: one strike up er inning, so his command is there.
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: And he's gone six innings in every outing and again
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: hasn't allowed that many runs. So he is still pitching
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: pretty well this month. And the Reds have never seen
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: him before except Connor Joe is one for five off him,
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: Cotton Eye Joe. Connor Joe Joe is one for five
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: of him with one strikeout. So do with that information
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: what you will.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: But I think.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: Pepio being unfamiliar to the Reds Bats, I think is
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit of an extra edge for
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: Pepio as well, the fact that the Bats haven't seen
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: him before him. And then we got on the other side,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: Andrew Abbot having a great season. Man two point one
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: to three ERA for the Reds, one point zero nine WHIP.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: He's been great, one point nine to eighty RA at home,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: really excellent. He did pitch in the All Star Game.
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: But he hasn't even slowed down Man this month. He's
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: still been good, except for one bad start at Philadelphia,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: but you can give him a pass. I mean, Philadelphia
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: good offense, they're good at home. Even including that, he
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: has a three point seven to one ERA this month,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: which still isn't even bad. Twelve to three strike out
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, so strikeout rate not that high, but his
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: command is still good. He's not getting tagged for a
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: lot of home runs. He is pitching well man and
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: it's been that way for a while, so he's not
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: allowing a lot of runs overall either. Andrew Abbot, Yeah,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: I mean over I don't want to Bill Aber and
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: his numbers are good and the Rays have not seen
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: that much of him either.
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: Five hitters have seen him before.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: Yon di Diz is the only hit offf him, although
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: it is a home run, but they're one for twelve
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: often with eight strikeouts. That is an extreme strikeout ranal,
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: though a lot of it is morele who's.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: Got five strikeouts and six at bats.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: But even so, eight strikeouts, three walks, eighty three batting
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: average allow for abb It against the Rays six hundred ops.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: So I think both pitchers have a nice little unfamiliarity
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: edge here. Both pitchers can actually, I think, pitch well
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: in this game and duel in this game. I think
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: the total came out too high in this game, even
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: though usually it's high for a reason. But in this game,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: I'm not seeing it as much. The total the juice
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: on the over nine dropped a little bit, but I
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: still saw the under nine at this very reasonable price here.
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can get the under nine and
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: a half at all, but nine is a key number.
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: Don't get it under eight and a half, though, make
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: sure you get it under nine. But nine is a
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: key number, So at least if it lands exactly nine,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: you'll push. If it's a five to four tie breaking score,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: there will be fifty eight percent of tickets on the over.
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: Public's only gonna come in on the over here especially.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati did score a lot in yesterday's game two,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: but sixty it was seven to two, I think, so
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: it wasn't even that high scoring. And I think it
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: was a bit of a misleading final as well, because
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: that game was like two to one Tampa into the
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: fifth inning.
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: So I was wrong about Tampa being the right side yesterday.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: But still fifty eight percent of tickets on the over
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: here sixty four percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: So the market is agreeing with me, and that's gonna
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. That is the the read there.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: I could probably just make sure that Action Network does
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: still have the market numbers agreeing with me.
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: Let me see here.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they still look like it's an agreement
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees and on the under.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: In this game. Yeah, so I will we'll go with that.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it, man, So once again Yankees money
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: line and under in reds and rays or raise reds.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for me. Cotton Eye, Joe and
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: that you. I'll have to see what that even looks like.
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: I can bring out the banjo lay for that one.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe if I do that, maybe I'll actually do that.
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know, it might be pretty hilarious. Thanks for
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: hanging out, especially Charles, You've been dominating the chat today.
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: Charles, Michael Thomas who's been in the chat, just you three,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: not Michael Thomas the wide receiver from the Saints or whatever.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: But thanks guys for hanging out. That's gonna do it.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: I gotta get this video up. Let's have a good Saturday.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: Peace out everybody. Everybody have a good one today.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: And tower ganging tone on Twitter for course, let me
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: get the banner down, sorry, learn to tone?
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? Tower ganging?
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: Tone, learn to toe on Twitter, learned to Tone on Instagram,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: or I post the better Off Dead stuff, We got
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: better off Dead, follow me, you know, subscribe, like comment,
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: do all the things on YouTube and on the audio
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: platforms covered in yuke. I also have a YouTube channel
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: for my yuke so that's I'm keeping that up todate
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: as well. In Patreon dot com slash learn to toe
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: where you get bonus yuke content. If you are at
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: one of the higher levels of the Patreon Spotify feed,
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: you can not request.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: You can give me request.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: And then we got I give send go was getting
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: a little bit of traction again, which is gives sen
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: go dot com slash tower Gang Toe there, which is
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: is you can find it in like my tweets and whatever,
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: and then yeah, I think that's it. And then I
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: do have a link tree where all the links are.
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: So linktree dot com slash Tower Gang No slash learn
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: to toad is where that is.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: You can find all that there.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: Everybody, have a good one, peace out,