Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk | Davis, Tommy, and Jed talk Markets

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AG Squawk | Davis, Tommy, and Jed talk Markets · AG Bull

• 0:13
  SPEAKER_03: Corn and soybeans came off session lows after lunch.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_03: Wheat futures explored highs.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_03: That's all well and good, but not much action toward the end of the day session today.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_03: We're going to focus on the cattles today, but we'll be sure to check the high points across the board.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_03: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson, coming to you from Kansas City, USA, and the ultimate man cave for Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_03: Sure, glad that you are along today.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_03: If you happen to be watching on YouTube, please make sure to like and subscribe, share this bad boy around.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_03: We want to get in front of as many people as possible because it's our goal to try to get something useful to everyone each day.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_03: And to maybe, if we can, just a slight little chuckle.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_03: Because if there's one thing in this world that people need, it's just the occasional slight mild chuckle.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_03: You know, and if we can deliver that, we're happy to do it.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_03: Glad to have you with us here.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_03: I need to start off with a quick apology and a thank you, sort of rolled into one.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_03: A thank pology.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_03: We were planning on a conversation with Rachel Fishback, the pride of pork today.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_03: I even mentioned it yesterday as I was exiting the program.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_03: We were all set, Rachel and I, this morning, and then the power went out here at my place again.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_03: You might recall that a tree fell on the neighbor's garage and took the power lines out with it last week.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_03: Well, today I'm just working away here, you know, doing my thing, and there was a big boom outside, and the whole neighborhood went dark again.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_03: Came back on a little while later, and the uh the power company sent out a text blaming wildlife for the outage.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know what sort of wildlife turns off the power in Kansas City, but they they were hard at work today.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_03: They got us back up and running.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_03: But in the meantime, I said to Rachel, look, I don't know when this is going to come back on or when we can fix this.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_03: So if you if if you've got time next week, maybe we can do it then.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_03: She was very gracious, very kind, and agreed next week might be a little bit better than uh than waiting around for the power to come on.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_03: So we'll have Rachel Fish back next week on Tuesday's program, actually, a week from today.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_03: So that's uh something to really look forward to.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_03: She's she's got her hands in a lot of pies, and I'm anxious to speak with her.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_03: The unexpected outage did open the door for me to have a conversation with a good, good friend of mine and a comrade, really, a a co-worker, Tommy Grissafi.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_03: We're gonna have Tommy in in just a few minutes to talk us through.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_03: Now, we we hit crude oil sort of and corn yesterday pretty hard with Connor Bridgeman from Agmarket.net.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_03: He did a fantastic job.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_03: And uh, I want to talk cattle with Tommy, but of course I do want to ask him and make sure that we don't miss anything in any of the other other markets.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_03: As far as the story of the markets today, corn and soybean futures were under light pressure through the morning hours of today's session, with soybean meal higher and soy oil mostly lower.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_03: Winter wheat markets bucked the softer tone, firming seven to nine cents by lunchtime.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_03: Meanwhile, in the livestocks, fed and feeder cattle futures were under sharp pressure with hogs mildly lower.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_03: And that was pretty much the tale of the afternoon as well.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_03: Let's take a look around the thing today.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_03: I'm getting my closes today and every day from the good folks at plus 500.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_03: We use plus 500 T4 software every single day for updated up-to-the-minute quotes as they happen.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_03: And uh, I've got the settlements right here.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_03: December corn at 460 and a half.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_03: That's down, looks like uh looks like two and three quarters.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_03: I've got November beans settling out at 1191.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_03: Uh the Jan, 12.05.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_03: That's that's pretty exciting, but still down a few cents in the soybeans.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_03: Meal was higher by the by the settlement.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_03: Oil was lower.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_03: And then look over at the winter wheat contracts there.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_03: We're up eight to nine cents, up 11 in the KC.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_03: I've got September KC wheat closing out the day at 678, even over to the livestocks.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_03: A tough day in the feeder and the oh and the fat cattle.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_03: Feeder cattle, I've got October settling out at 340.52 and a half, down more than six bucks.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_03: And the live cattle, let's uh let's go to the octa on that as well.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_03: 227.65 down 297.5.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_03: Look out to the feb, and you're down three bucks today in the the uh February fat cattle.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_03: And over to the hogs, October was actually up a dime.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_03: Got it like that.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_03: 84, 37, and one half.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_03: But then just right next door at the December lean hog contract, we're down 25 cents at 74, 82 and a half.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_03: Looking at that spread and about a little less than a$10 spread there.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_03: Interesting, interesting to watch as we go forward there.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_03: And with that, before I bring in Tommy, let me just say friendship is everything.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_03: Friendship is more than talent, it's more than the government, it's almost the equal of family.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_03: And with that, let me bring in the godfather of Agball himself, Tommy Gristoffer.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: You've embarrassed me, and you definitely embarrassed yourself.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is you you've overdone it.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's better than the handsome newsman song.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Uh give us a little give a little taste of what the handsman who makes a song for themselves.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_03: I don't even have the handsome newsman song up in front of me.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_03: Here, I think I've got it in the in the thing.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_03: Let me see if I can find it quick.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_03: Unless you find it first.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: I can get it.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Here we go.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Who makes the song?
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_03: I didn't make it myself.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_03: It was the the eggbull glee club put that together.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_03: And I really appreciate them.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: They're uh on fire here.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: They're just trying to I'm happy to be here.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'm happy to have you on the team.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: And uh boy, we're getting a positive response from people, Davis.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: We're it's taking a while, you know.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: You just don't do a show for a week or two and be like, how do they not know I'm here?
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: So you know what they need to do?
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: If you're out there watching, tell a friend.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's free.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: Free.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: People love free stuff.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Tell a friend, send the show to friends, and yeah, it's good stuff.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_03: And if they say, uh, if your friends ask you, well, what's the show like?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_03: We have smart people on, interesting people, hopefully, you know, smart, interesting people in an ideal world.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_03: Uh, we've got that certainly today.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_03: We had it yesterday with Connor Bridgman from Agmarket.net and Tommy, I just I just want to go back in time to the 1900s.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_03: There used to be these these books that we would use to learn what words meant.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_03: They called it a dictionary.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know if you can even still get any.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_03: I I dug this out of the archives.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_03: There's actually in a time capsule that I had to dig out of the ground.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_03: My pet cat was in there too.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_03: He didn't make it.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_03: But in a completely unfair move, I uh challenged Connor yesterday.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and here's the worst part, Tommy.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_03: I didn't even know how to spell Fahrenheit.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_03: I had typed it into like my news copy and had to spell check it.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_03: And this I spelled it so poorly the spell check didn't even know what word I was trying to get at.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_03: So I thought we would go old school with a little little physical media here and and figure out how to spell Fahrenheit.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_03: You want to take a stab at it?
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_03: Connor was close.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: Connor was a brave soul.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I think he got it wrong, but just to for just for you know, as we do in the egg squawk world, we uh we gave him uh call a friend, or hey, that's close enough, I think is what you did.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely, we did.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_03: You know what?
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_03: And we'll shout him out.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_03: Come on.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_03: All right, Fahrenheit.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_03: F-A-H.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_03: That's what that's what Connor got hung up on.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_03: Fahrenheit, F-A-H-R-E-N, H again, E I T.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_03: F-A-H-R-E-N-H-E-I-T.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_03: The definition is weird.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_03: Here, here we go.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_03: Thermometric scale on which under standard atmospheric pressure, the boiling point of water is at 212 degrees above the zero of the scale.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_03: The freezing point is at 32 degrees above zero.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_03: And the zero point approximates the temperature produced by mixing equal quantities by weight of snow and common salt.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_03: That's how they figure what zero is in Fahrenheit, mixing equal quantities by weight of snow and common salt.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_03: You know, no wonder everybody's confused.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_03: How is there even a word for that?
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know?
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, but it is hot out there.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're gonna talk about that a lot a little bit.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_03: I think we should.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_03: 89 degrees in in Kansas City.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_03: This what's what's it like?
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_03: Are you uh are you in Nashtown Music City, US?
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Nashville.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: You guys can't hear the music out the window, I don't think, but boy, you know, the bands are playing stuff.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, they're I hear it, and it I was like, can you guys hear that?
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm right next to the Ryman and all of Broadway's one block away.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's hot, it rains every day.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's not as hot at home, though.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Brother Joe said it's 90 some degrees in Valparaiso, Indiana, northwest Indiana, and we do have a weather chart will pop up.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: They're continuing to get rains where they don't need it, and where they need it, it's starting to get to that no go go area where where people are getting worried.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: But with that, crop ratings were up yesterday, and you didn't know that upon recording with Connor Bridgman.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_03: No, we didn't know.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you're talking about how the crops are stressed out and everything else.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Boom, corn won better, beans won better, markets opened lower and traded lower last night, and they came back to uh I thought I thought corn and beans put in a a good college try here, only being down a few cents today.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and you know, Connor and I talked about sort of a range between I believe it was 440 and 480 in the December corn futures.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_03: As, you know, and if there's if there's one thing that we've seen, it feels like over the last few years, the tail of the tape on corn has been it wants to find a range and stay there.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_03: Now, 440 to 480 is a pretty wide one as far as they go, but I I hate to think what knocks us back out to the downside, and I don't really have any idea what might push us up over 480 at this point.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_03: So I feel like range-bound trade between 40 and 80 cents.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, unless something changes with final yield, demand, maybe a deal with China.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: That may be why wheat could be a sleeper is that maybe China will buy some wheat, maybe they'll buy some corn.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: They're starting to buy a few.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans, nothing too exciting.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone gets excited.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: China buys.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: They used to buy our stuff all the time, Davis.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you've been doing shows like this for a lot of years, and that it, you know, they're they're supposed to buy from us, they're supposed to be one of our best customers.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now all of a sudden we we get the band out and the cheerleaders, and we get all excited that China bought anything.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you think when China buys stuff, they they people in the media world get too excited versus like, yeah, they better start buying stuff, otherwise, we're gonna have a problem, we're gonna have too much.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_03: Well, talk to us about the corn beans weed, even if you got anything on hogs there, because as as I said, I do want to talk about cattle, and uh it's something that we need to talk about today, but give me the high points.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_03: What what do we need to know?
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_03: What did what do viewers need to know about corn beans or wheat in today's trade?
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Davis, one thing I would ask people to do is at this point of the year, as we get past the fourth and we're coming on uh the almost the dead center of July, you got to have a plan for what bushels you're going to need to start sell right off the combine.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if you need to sell corn or beans or wheat, in this case, wheat harvest happened for many, but not the wheat harvest up in up north, the spring wheat.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna happen here pretty quick.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: If you need to get something sold, you need to get your cash flow needs met.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: You can't all of a sudden be shocked that you didn't know you're a farmer this year.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: And we're getting prices when beans went above 12 yesterday.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat's had some explosions here recently.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: They were up more, backed off, but they're coming back.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: Corn's had a respectable level, not a great level, but basis is improving.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: So definitely button up old crop, get ready for new crop, and don't be shocked that you're awesome, even if you're just a tiny bit not as awesome.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe corn does rally a little bit in the harvest.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean we didn't grow a corn crop, just means one state, one county, one area, someone had a problem, too much rain, not enough rain.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: But there is going to be a harvest.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: There is corn out there, there's beans, there's wheat.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: What people like us do all day is sit in meetings and argue over half bushels.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: But folks, there's gonna be a lot of bushels.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: Don't don't have that shock face that you're awesome.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and here's the thing: the the July went off the board here looks like at 12.07 in the soybeans.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_03: I've got the Jan 27 in soybeans at 12.05.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_03: And here sits the Nove at 1191 on today's settlement.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy, I mean, if if beans don't like an 11 handle, we are much closer to 12 than 10, baby.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_03: I like our chances.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_03: How about you?
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: A 12 is a solid number.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: We got to check the basis, right?
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: We we're not gonna get that 12 number.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: We may get uh a little less than that or a lot less than that in some cases, but that's a very, very respectable place to start.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: But that doesn't mean beans couldn't be you sell your beans off the combine.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean you should never think that beans can go up and be happy with that price.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: Beans could go up a lot more with other problems around the world.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: And that's probably, if I had to guess, that's probably what's keeping our corn and wheat market up, Davis, is those problems around the world.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Our friend Jim Wiesmeyer's done some good stories recently on uh what's going on in Europe and France and everything.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think you guys touched about it a little bit yesterday.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: I know I touched about it on the uh AMAG squawk, but there's some problems over there.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: So watch these overnight markets versus where we open at night.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, our crop ratings are better.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: How do we rally?
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Europe has a problem, and they may need to import some grain there for sure.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: Also keep an eye on uh the Russia-Ukraine situation.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, of course, we got crude oil flying around and all types of drama.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, lots of drama with this Iran stuff, yeah.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: We could get it over with, but doesn't I don't know how this ends.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_03: Let's talk crude in a minute, but you you hit on something there.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_03: How much impact is the Russia-Ukraine scenario having on this?
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, I'm gonna I'm gonna average it out.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, we're talking about a dime rise in the uh Chicago and the KC weed today.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, yesterday crude oil was up seven dollars a barrel and corn closed on its low.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're sitting there and you're a grain trader and you're like crude's up by grains, that's not working out.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: Also in the month of June when grain sold off, we also sold off hard, very hard, on a big up crude day.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: I remember one day again, crude was up seven or eight dollars and corn sold off.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I remember getting caught long corn in my own account.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: So that you know, you kind of remember those things.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: I bought corn because crude was up.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, corn had a mind of its own.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah don't don't buy your crude in the corn pit, as they used to say.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_03: Ah, that's good.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_03: That's good.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_03: Let me look.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_03: I've got my crude chart up here.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, look, okay, so nothing crazy in the crude oil today, although if we're looking, I mean, we're we're bumping up against 80 bucks again in the August here, up a dollar fifty-five presently.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_03: We're almost well, I'm gonna call it 79 bucks in in the sept there, Tommy.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: I I already have clients who have uh they're pretty upset that they didn't lock in crude oil because it wasn't down there just for a day, yeah, it was down there for uh several days, and not just like an hour.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, crude oil was kind of below 70 for several days and in the lower 70s, and harvest is gonna happen, you're gonna consume a ton of fuel.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: Guys need to be thinking about what's my risk, wait for it to go to 65 or watch it to go to 105, right?
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: And so you're you know, there's things you can do, but you know, the farmers being taxed a lot, Davis.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we get these pops in crude, and it just makes everything around them go up, and and and then we get this pop and crude, it makes interest rates go up.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: But when were we gonna talk about cattle?
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: Because the judge is here.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: I see the judge just popped in.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_03: I'm afraid now.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: I'm afraid now that we've got we got the dire friend because Judge Jed just met with uh Mike Sands.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, he's got the straight scoop.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: I got asked to be on the show because you don't know how to keep the electricity on in Kansas City.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_03: I don't, I don't, I don't.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_03: Well, let here, we'll talk about something that I know you do want to talk about.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_03: Right, baby.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_03: Uh tomorrow, I've got Zach Hefty from Hefty Seed.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_03: They got uh Hefty Field Days coming up, and uh as I understand, you're the godfather of Agbol is gonna be in attendance over there at Hefty Field Days.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_03: Is that right?
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, so if you can get your ass up early and get your butt to hefty field days, I think I speak at 7:30.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: 730.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: All right, so no need for me to even go to bed the night before.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: I'll just stay out all night.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: And hefty field days is a really cool event.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: I've gone there several times and I've become a little closer with Zach Hefty, just kind of by accident.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one, he's a nice guy, but I bumped into Zach Hefty at in Las Vegas at at NAB show, and then Zach and myself and some friends went out, and I really got to know Zach a lot better, and I really like him.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: He's gonna be on the show tomorrow, right?
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, he absolutely is.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and he's a a little bit uh he was he was out there before us and uh sort of taking advantage of this new media, you know.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_03: You you think of well, if you want to get your want to get your weather, well you you gotta look for the weather guy on TV.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_03: If you want to get the farm markets, you gotta you gotta get you know to AM radio if you if you want to get this or that or this or that.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_03: It used to be sort of compartmentalized, and now the media has changed in such a way that it's uh I mean it's an absolute smorgasboard.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_03: You can about find anything that you want to on your own terms.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_03: You know, it used to be you used to have to sit through a television program and and watch commercials.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_03: Well, YouTube comes along and yeah, we've got sponsors, you know.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_03: I'll mention trade the news, I'll mention T500, but you know, we're we're we're here and able to deliver content in a stream.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_03: There's no, well, let's take a break for commercial really quick.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_03: And and Zach Hefty and his crew have been been involved in that as well, haven't they, Tommy?
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I'll give you a little hint that you're gonna be to ask him some questions tomorrow.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, hefty.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: Well, first of all, credit to his father, Darren and Brian.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: The the hefty boys who started hefty seeds in South Dakota.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: And you're not super familiar with this brand, and that's probably because on your previous life, the hefty boys weren't advertising on your show because the hefty boys had their own show.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: What the hefty boys are doing that's so interesting that we could all learn a lot from is they are combining old school media with new school media.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so every day on XM radio, when I get in my pickup, I can listen to the their show, which they you can call in, ask an agronomy question, and the heck's the name of the uh hefty XM show, but it's real good.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: But they now flip the switch to video.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: And so now when you go to the RFD TV app or the hefty app, whatever, you can see the XM radio show that was streamed live, and they do it from their own studio.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: So here's what's so unique about Hefty is they've they listened to what farmers wanted, and farmers wanted to ask questions and have them answered live on air.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: And what Zach did as a young person was he took what his dad and uncle were doing old school and turned it into new school with all these shorts and reels.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: So if you ask Zach, I know the answer, but ask him tomorrow what is your most explosive growth in which platform and which form?
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: I know the answer, but I don't want to spoil it.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I was shocked at when he puts out content where it's the most popular.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's not what I would have guessed, but in our form, I'll just let people know a little bit.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: Just in the last month or two, you can watch the Ag Bull videos.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: We put out how many videos a week?
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: 11 that are public and a bunch that are private, but we have five X squawk AMs, five X squawk PMs in Weesmeyer's perspective.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's 11.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: Almost had to take my shoes off.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_01: With that, we're having more videos watched on Spotify than anywhere else.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: We weren't on Spotify a month ago, yeah.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: So that's how fast this changes.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: And what's interesting, Davis, was I didn't have to go play the Godfather song again.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I didn't have to go to the media gods and say, Dear Godfather, I'll kiss the ring.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: Let me be on your fine show.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: What I did was I clicked a button and now I'm on Spotify.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_01: Now there's certain things you gotta do not to Get put in YouTube jail or Spotify jail.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: Really, that's not true.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: Because you can say whatever the hell you want.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: And if I want to drop an F bomb, I could.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm not too good in letters and spelling, as I told you.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: So we won't.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: But we could say whatever we want.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: And all we have to do is put an E by the episode.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: And the FCC is not going to come after us in the butt this is important.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to suck up and get big time sponsors, they micromanage you.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: And so with our sponsors, I know they're not going to micromanage us plus 500 to trade the news.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: But the truth is, Davis, and this is what my point is, and there is a point to my story, is that our listeners are the sponsors of this show.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: When they subscribe to premium, they now be can say to their friends at church, the bar, a family gathering, I sponsor Ag Squawk.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: I sponsor the Agble Boys for$25 a month.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_01: You actually become a sponsor of the show.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: And what that allows us to do is continue to tell our version of truth without being manipulated and have our arm twisted and say, You can't say that.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_01: And without mentioning names, I've been in this town and been on shows, and I've seen certain people in the ag world that something's happened.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I was told from someone literally running downstairs, you can't talk about this subject.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: They're our largest sponsor.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, so what I learned in doing live national TV was I don't even get to tell you my version of the truth.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: I get to tell you what was paid for to put the spin.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_01: I get paid off not to tell you the truth.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: Does that make sense to you?
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it absolutely does.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and here's okay.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_03: I don't care for it, but I get it.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_03: I did watch his documentary and he was talking about why music is just gonna get worse and worse and worse.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_03: It's because of the corporatization.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_03: There was a time when the record executives and all these people who were signing all these new groups, the Stones, the Beatles, you know, all of your favorite groups from back in the day, and they're like, I don't know.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_03: It seems like the kids would like this.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_03: Just give them a contract.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, okay.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_03: And they would give just about anybody a shot.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_03: Now it's like, well, if you don't sound like, oh geez, I don't even know who's new anymore.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy, give me a name.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_03: I was gonna say Brittany.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: I love Ella Langley.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: I like Ella Langley.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, if if you don't sound fella, that could be an Ella's fella.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_03: You're rhyming on me now.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_03: If you don't sound like Taylor Swift, if you don't sound like Beyonce, if you don't sound like anybody else, well, I'm sorry, because that's what's selling right now, and so that's what we're this medium allows us to hop right out of all of that nonsense and and and handle our own rudder, I guess you might say.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_03: We're steering our own ship here, Tommy.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_03: Now the premium side helps.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_03: You did mention the premium side where you know, and I I I talk about it too because we just sort of beepop through the markets, and you know, here we got December corn at this and Novi Beans at that or whatever.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_03: If you really are someone who wants to watch it carefully, who maybe wants to be alerted at certain levels, you can go to Agbol.com.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_03: See, this is what backs us up here and allows us to do this in part.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_03: Agbold.com for for a monthly subscription, or it's cheaper for an annual subscription, but you can get all the details that you want to from us directly right there.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_03: So that that helps us out a great deal.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_03: I just you know, I'm used to giving out all the nitty-gritty details, and people don't always want that.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_03: And that's that's why we're here doing this, Tommy.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: But but you know what they do want, so and in full disclosure, like we've been studying this.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_01: Myself, Joe Gersafi, Jed Sidwell, Davis.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: I went to my friends.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_03: We've got dictionaries and everything, but you that's how hard we study.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: You you know how to spell spell what we're studying, but you don't, yeah.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: But I found this crazy video on YouTube, and I sent it to my buddy Scott the Cow Guy, who I was just on his show.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for having me on, Scott, who also is a big fan of yours.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: He likes watching the show when we restream it on.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_03: You shout him out.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_03: Should we shout out Scott the Cow?
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, Scott the Cow Guy, Scott the Cow Guy, everybody.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_03: Come on.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_01: Shout out to Scott.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and here's what changed.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's so simple.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: And this is what I've learned.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_01: But if you would like to argue with us, if you're one of the people also who just had to fill out the survey save am radio, who when's the last time someone asked you to fill out a survey to save live streaming or YouTube?
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the writing's on the walls, yeah.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: And if anyone in traditional radio or media listens to this, they're gonna get pissed.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: The truth is they probably don't listen to us because they don't think we're real media people.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_04: Yeah, yeah.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: But we learned something 20, 30 years ago, you listened to radio local radio stations for a couple things.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: One, local sports.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_01: No one covered local sports better in Griffith, Indiana than our local AM station in Hammond.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: But then high schools started to have media classes where Valparaiso, Porter County, has the Porter County, Porter County, Indiana, has a Porter County vocational center where you can go to high school for media.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: These are for people who aren't going to go on to be doctors and lawyers and this or that.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: And so there, you can get two years of full-blown media training through Porter County school system.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: They cover the high school sports, they cover the basketball, they cover gymnastics, and they're doing a better doggone job than the people who we used to pay.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: And so the companies in the area who used to sponsor to have their name mentioned during the high school field football game, they've lost that ad revenue.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: So local radio stations were supported by sports, weather on the 15, traffic on the 15.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: We already know there's a hundred horrible weather apps, but you can actually find out if it's a butt rate of rain over your head for free on your iPhone or your Android or your favorite device.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: That leaves us with traffic.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: Where are you working today, Davis?
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: You're at home.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: Where am I?
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in an office in downtown Nashville, and I have an apartment three blocks away.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not that worried about traffic, folks.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so that little creepy sickness that came around five, six years ago changed where we all work.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: So then why else were you listening to radio?
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: To hear your favorite song.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I got news for you.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_01: There's this little app called Spotify or Apple, where every favorite song in the world is now free.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: So what's left for traditional radio, Davis?
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: Do tell because you actually know the answer.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: You are the epitome and definition of why someone tunes in every day.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: Full screen on Davis Michael's.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, shucks, Tommy.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_03: Well, it is.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_03: It's people.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_03: I I think in that video, the the quote was people don't want content, they want companionship.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_03: They want someone along.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_03: I'll tell you where I learned how to broadcast.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_03: Some would argue I never did.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_03: Fair, but I didn't go to college.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_03: But when when I was scooping manure, when I was out doing farmy stuff, there was always a radio in the barn tuned to AM radio.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_03: We listened to the Iowa Hawkeye games, all kinds of stuff.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_03: AM radio was was where it was at.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_03: And I think we meet we may need to make the jump in order to facilitate this.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_03: Keep your AM radio because you you need that.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_03: If it thunders, you're gonna want to have the updated local weather.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_03: But get a little a little speaker, those little Bluetooth speakers, and hook it to your phone.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_03: Everybody's phone hooks.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_03: If you can't figure out how to do it, have your kids or maybe your grandkids help you out.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_03: I've had to do that myself.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_03: Have one of those set up in the barn right next to your AM radio.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_03: That way you can get your AM radio, but you can also get Ag Squawk 11 times a week.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_03: You're gonna want it.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_03: You're gonna want to do that.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_03: But it's it's just the way it goes.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_03: Because the kids are gonna want to be out there.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_03: If you they're gonna want to be out there listening to their what, their Britney Spears and their Sonny and Cher, their Dave Clark 5 at some point, and they want to Bluetooth it, you know?
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: So Brother Joe popped up.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: It's Ag PhD Radio, that's on XM.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you, nobody when I went to Las Vegas, Zach Hefty was there with seven or eight employees from Hefty Seeds, yeah, who were just there for media.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_04: Yep.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: For media.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: That young man you're gonna meet tomorrow, I think, is by far the greatest, biggest up-and-coming media star in all of agriculture.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I do wanna I wanna give a shout out to your wife because she still does traditional.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_01: Are you comfortable talking about what she does?
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_03: Sure.
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, absolutely.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_03: She does traditional terrestrial radio here in the in the Kansas City Metro.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_03: Now, she's been through years and years and years of, you know, she's been a part of the Wacky Morning Zoo cruise.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_03: She's been on country stations, she has lived the DJ, you know, town to town up and down the dial, like WKRP in Tommy.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_03: Wkrp in Cincinnati.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_03: Excellent, excellent.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: When the you're doing great, they had the turkey drop, dude.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_00: They had the turkey drop.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_00: I honestly can fly.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: Judge Jed, if you're quick on your feet, boy, could we use turkey and fly.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: Like, here's what we're gonna do.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to be your first guest ever to quit on you, but yeah, we went off the little the rails a little bit today.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_03: And I know you're gonna you're gonna dive out now.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: What are we doing?
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_03: I'm sorry.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_03: Here's what we're gonna do.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_03: But Joe, don't open the door, just leave the door closed, Joe.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: Joe, let him out.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_01: Judge Jed just met with Mike Sands, and Mike Sands and Judge Jed did a premium.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I just want to say that it's a privilege and honor to work with Mike Sands.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Sands is we do a little show every morning, Judge Jed amongst oh, by the way.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: I made Jed give me a to-do list of everything he does today.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: It was two pages, it was two pages, and then Joe did one and he filled out like a paragraph.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know what the heck's going on.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_01: There's you know the fair and balanced.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: But Joe's stuff's real important.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: But when I tell you, Jed gave me two pages of all the things he does.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, what he does is he produces this little show called uh Before the Bell.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_01: That's a five-minute conference call with Mike Sands.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: But then we go long form with Mike Sands and we do Fat Tuesday, which is funny because today is actually a Tuesday, but oftentimes we record it on Wednesday.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: Don't let the date fool you, it's a good show.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: So Fat Tuesday talking film.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_03: You know who Jed is here's another reference that he won't get.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_03: He's right, he's radar O'Reilly, is who know who radar is.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_03: He keeps the whole thing running.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_03: He's he's the feet beneath the water that are that are paddling this duck upstream is what uh what I want to do is uh first time ever on your show, I quit.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'd like to forfeit my chance to talk about cattle because I can tell you my opinion of them from a trader stance, they're not acting well.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_01: But I think if I bow out and we let the one and only Judge Jed come in, he could actually connect the dots, as Jim Weesmeyer likes to say, on why the price action at the board's not good versus the thing.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll bring him in unless he's not ready.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_03: I do think every time he tries to get away, we pull him back in.
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_03: Thanks, Tommy.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, guys.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_01: Appreciate you being here.
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_01: Congratulations.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, real quick before I leave, if you didn't like or you did like what we said about traditional media or where media is going, drop us a line.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: I want to hear your opinion.
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_01: I did fill out the survey to keep AM radio on.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_01: I do listen to AM radio, and I love all my friends in radio.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but in the end, the client gets to choose the medium day, Davis, and I think that's what we're talking about.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, everyone.
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_03: That was Tommy Grissoffee, the godfather of Ag Bull Media, handing it off to Judge Jed.
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_03: All right, Jed, welcome to uh to Ag Bull to uh appreciate you, buddy.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_03: Apparently, you're gonna hop in and talk cattle.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so let's let's get after it.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_03: You were just on with with Mike Sands.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_03: I've asked you this question before, and it sounds weird, but is Mike Sands nervous, in your opinion?
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think Mike Sands has ever been nervous.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think he ever has.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_02: He is calm, cool, collected, he is steadfast with a smooth hand, and he does just a great job.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_02: Every week I hop on him with him for the the the Fat Tuesday show, and every day we have before the bell there, and man, he is just so so collected in his thoughts and what he has to say every week.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_02: It's super informative, and I highly recommend listening.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_02: We drop one free every now and then, so catch him when you can.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_02: But if you'd like him every week, yeah, he's on the premium side there.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_02: But I have actually I do know who radar O'Reilly is.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_02: I'd get back to that.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_02: I watch MASH back in the day.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, there are reruns because I'm only 23 years old.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_03: And watch reruns too.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not ancient like Tommy back when they used to actually trade in person.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_02: I don't even know what that's about.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_02: Uh I'm a young guy.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_03: But they used to lower them into a pit, is what I hear.
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's on the left with Joe in the middle, and Scott Childe's father's there on the right.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_03: Well, okay, let's let's let's talk about cattle.
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_03: Are we calling today a bit of an ongoing correction here, Jed?
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_03: What do you make of the market setup today in the feeders and the fats?
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_02: You know, uh down across the board.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, kind of just a slow progress there throughout the day.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: And what Mike Sands and I had talked about for a while on our Fat Tuesday show was that we have a large front-end supply of cattle.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_02: And cattle, if you're not used to the ag world, I'm gonna put this out there for you.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_02: They're non they're not non-perishable.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_02: They are a perishable product.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_02: We can't put them in a warehouse and store them on a shelf, say, well, we'll sell them next month.
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_02: They're fat, 1600, 1700 pounds, ready to go.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_02: The ovens are gonna turn on here in July, and they're gonna get fat, and their hearts are gonna start to feel the pressure of all their cholesterol.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_02: They're gonna have to go to town here at some point and pop up on show lists across the country to go to their designated Big Four Packer.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_02: And it's just a matter of time, and they're gonna have to go to town here.
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_02: But after that, I mean, we're still at a record low cow herd.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_02: We're not putting a ton of cattle on feed right now.
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we're gonna burn through this front-end supply at some point, Davis.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, for sure.
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_03: Well, and you know, there have been, I guess maybe, if anything, we could look at it as a bit of a technical correction.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_03: In my notes here, it it looks like we got the uh the fats below the 100-day moving average on the close.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_03: Does that keep I guess does that keep fund liquidation in play here?
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_03: Or do they figure, wow, below the 100-day moving average, that's about that's probably about as low as she's gonna go with tight cattle supplies.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I I I'm not the best guesser of what the funds are gonna do.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_02: I I will say that much.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_02: I I know I know what the cash market does, and I know what production agriculture, I know that cycle very well.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, they may see it as a time to get out, or like you said, they may see it as a time to get in and a time to buy.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_02: Exactly.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_02: Beef is still a valuable product, and the consumer hasn't wavered in terms of demand yet.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_03: Well, let's talk about that cash market.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_03: Still at a premium to the futures, is it?
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, as of right now, it is.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_02: We've seen a slight decline, but yeah, right now, basis is holding very, very strong.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, very good.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_03: How much impact does that have on futures?
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_03: If there's one thing I've learned, at least on the grains side, it's that the cash market never lies.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_03: If cash is gonna hold in there strong, do you reckon that gap is filled by futures or is it filled to the downside by the cash market?
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_03: I have a hard time seeing cash coming down to meet up with futures.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_02: Well, like the grain side, Davis, cash varies throughout the country.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_02: And where you are in the world and your local sale bar has a direct effect on the cash market.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_02: And it may be a dollar or two off from you know somewhere else in the middle of the country.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_02: If you're in Florida selling cattle, they're probably not going to be worth quite as much as they would be if you live five miles from a feed yard.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_02: But with that, cash always it's shows the true market of the cattle industry and where it's at.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_02: Cattle buyers sitting in local barns still directly affect the price price of feeder cattle every week, and paying attention to those sale barn prices is really important.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_02: We saw a superior sale last week, and obviously those have a big impact as well.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_02: So, yeah, cash is king, baby.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_02: We'll go ahead and read that pop-up there because it always has been, and it probably will still stay that way.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_03: Let's go here.
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_03: You and I have had a number of conversations.
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_03: I want to just read something that Weesmeyer put out a little earlier this afternoon.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_03: Beef on dairy crossbreads have exploded from roughly 50,000 head in 2014 to 3.2 million in 2024 with projections of five to six million head this year, already 12% to 15% of the Fed cattle harvest and climbing.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_03: You're a Colorado cattleman from way back in the day, generationally so.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_03: You've mentioned to me that there's a fair amount of dairy out there.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_03: Is is beef on dairy a hard sell for the Colorado cattle people?
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_02: Not at all.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_02: Especially if you're a dairyman, when you used to think of a spotted Holstein calf as your byproduct and giving them away to local kids to take to the fair and bottle feed them and say your little community kickback, they're not doing that when they're worth so much at two weeks old that you can't afford to lose them.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_02: Right now, beef on dairy is changing the cattle market and is changing the dairy world too, because right now milk prices still aren't awesome.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_02: But when your byproduct that you used to deem not worth the whole lot is now helping keep the national beef system where it's at, is pretty cool.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_02: And the thing we forget about is people used to complain that Holsteins are just that, yeah, sure, they grade fine, and they're more likely to go choice or prime than just maybe traditional cattle sometimes, or just as likely if you want to make that argument.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_02: And but they take longer to feed.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_02: Well, when we make them a beef on dairy cross and we really focus on genomics and analytics the way they are on a turnover cycle that's much faster than the actual beef industry, they can make some really good feeding cattle off of some beef on dairy crosses.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: And it's interesting to see the portion of the market that they've taken up in just a short amount of time.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_03: Am I thinking about it right when I hear about imports of beef from you know Brazil, Argentina, maybe Australia?
• 42:05
  SPEAKER_03: Does most of that, I don't know if you know the answer to this question.
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_03: It's okay if you don't.
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_03: I feel like most of that just heads straight for the grinder, and that that makes up most uh most of that goes to ground beef as opposed to U.S., which goes to more prime cuts.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_02: Am I thinking about that right?
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_02: You're absolutely right, Davis.
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_02: Not saying that we don't get some premium cuts from outside of the U.S., but for the most part, when we think of the South American and our Australian counterparts, a lot of the time we are getting grinds there.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_02: They aren't quite as known for the premium, high-level, high choice, and high prime cattle.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_02: There still are cattle like that down there in that part of the world, but most of the time they go other places than the U.S.
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_02: And with that, the cattle that they feed down there look a little bit different than ours.
• 42:51
  SPEAKER_02: I would say that Argentinian Angus cattle, I'll take a stab at the Angus world.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_02: I think Argentinian Angus cattle are better from a judge's perspective.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_02: But at the same time, a lot of them down there have eared influence.
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_02: What we'd like to talk about, Brahmin, or we call them Americans here in the U.S., but they have ear, they're boss indicus cattle that don't they're heat resistant, they're really hardy and they're parasite resistant, but they don't grade quite as well.
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_03: Interesting.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_03: Well, you said parasite, and of course, my brain just just went to New World Screwworm.
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_03: Any any updates on that?
• 43:22
  SPEAKER_03: I I'm not gonna say it's quiet because I'm pretty far from that situation over here in in Kansas City, USA.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_03: But uh is I mean, are are we getting a handle on it?
• 43:33
  SPEAKER_02: Where we're the big bad bug, as we like to talk about, and it's not that big or bad or scary.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_02: It's not this biblical swarm of locusts that's coming over our southern border to invade our U.S.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_02: cattle production system.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_02: We're keeping it pretty well at bay.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_02: It's not spreading too much farther up into Texas.
• 43:52
  SPEAKER_02: We're keeping it down there.
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_02: We've seen some areas go from active to inactive areas where they've done a good job of using herdsmanship and animal husbandry to take care of the livestock down there and put eyes on cattle more frequently.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_03: Excellent.
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_03: Uh anything else?
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_03: You want us to know about cattle, the cattle market, cows, anything?
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_02: You know, pay attention to weather.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_02: You know, it we hate to see it, but sometimes we we see some problems with regards to health, and especially in Texas feed yards this time of year, and that can affect the market.
• 44:24
  SPEAKER_02: Hopefully, we try and keep some of those headlines away from the general news media at times because it's sad and unfortunate, but it does happen from time to time.
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_04: Yeah.
• 44:33
  SPEAKER_03: All right, very good.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_03: Chud Sidwell.
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_03: Well done, sir.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy, you should come back in here.
• 44:37
  SPEAKER_03: You should come back in, the three of us.
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_03: All three of us together.
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_03: Come on in, like one big happy family.
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_03: Huh?
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_01: One big happy family.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_01: What do you got?
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_01: What do you got, brother?
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to let me come in, I'm taking the big screen.
• 44:49
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, all right.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_03: Fair enough.
• 44:51
  SPEAKER_03: Fair enough.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_03: He is the godfather after all.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_03: Love it.
• 44:54
  SPEAKER_03: Um, let's talk about the weather really quick.
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_04: Oh, Jed, here we can talk about this.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_03: Uh Jed, you're from the flat in Colorado, the high, the high desert.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_03: Um, I don't know that you expect a ton of rain out there, but how are conditions?
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_03: Is it getting dry or what?
• 45:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's getting pretty dry and down there in the southern Colorado and Utah.
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_02: Things are getting a little desperate out there with regards to wildfires and things like that.
• 45:20
  SPEAKER_02: So our thoughts and prayers go out to them.
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_02: We lost a firefighter in Colorado not too long ago because of it.
• 45:26
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, stay on the stay on the lookout for those things as we approach this time of year.
• 45:32
  SPEAKER_02: We've gotten a little more rain than we expected in the spring, but we're still certainly in a drought.
• 45:37
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy, they learned how to grow corn in the south for sure.
• 45:40
  SPEAKER_03: Mississippi.
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_03: Uh, I'm gonna leave somebody out.
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_03: I won't start naming Arkansas.
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_03: You know, they had acres actually expand a few uh several weeks ago here.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_03: But man, if I'm looking at this this rain map here, boy, corn country is having a tough time right now, getting a drop of rain.
• 45:55
  SPEAKER_03: Am I looking at this right, Tommy?
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Davis, and I think that's what's stopping the corn market from absolutely dropping tremendously.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_01: That's what's keeping us where we trade down six or seven today and get to only down one or two, is that it's like it better start raining.
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's July 15th, and different crop tours will start going around, but you don't know till you know.
• 46:15
  SPEAKER_01: And one thing I will say, folks, is that you know, my drive in the I states from northern Indiana to Nashville, that everything used to look horrible.
• 46:23
  SPEAKER_01: It all looks green now.
• 46:24
  SPEAKER_01: So when crop ratings went up yesterday, yeah, it's green, it's good looking crop.
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: You can't see the holes in the middle, and we won't know those till harvest.
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_01: So that could be the big uh stinker there.
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_03: I'm gonna go back to Jim Wiesemeyer.
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_03: He sent me an interesting stat this morning.
• 46:38
  SPEAKER_03: The guy's on fire, he just doesn't have an off switch, is the thing.
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_03: For every low temperature record set this year, this according to Jim Wiesmeyer, there have been around 19 high temperature records set.
• 46:51
  SPEAKER_03: So it's a one to nineteen ratio of record lows to record highs at 19.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_03: It's been hot already.
• 47:00
  SPEAKER_03: Super El Nino inbound forecasters suspect 2027 may be a hot one too.
• 47:06
  SPEAKER_03: Shorter term, the National Weather Service says a significant heat wave is underway for the Intermountain West Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes, peaking in intensity through midweek.
• 47:16
  SPEAKER_03: We're not even there yet, folks, and lingering across parts of the northern plains and midwest until the weekend in southwest Texas, excessive rainfall may bring a risk for potentially life-threatening flash and arroyal flooding through Thursday.
• 47:31
  SPEAKER_03: All right, fellas, let's uh let's talk about some items of mild interest.
• 47:35
  SPEAKER_03: Are you ready for that?
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_03: You feel uh I'm ready.
• 47:38
  SPEAKER_03: You feel like being mildly interested?
• 47:39
  SPEAKER_03: I'm already mildly interested.
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_03: It's uh it's uh let's see, it's July 14, 2026, today in 1881.
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_03: Billy the kid was shot and killed by Sheriff Pat Garrett at Fort Sumner, New Mexico.
• 47:57
  SPEAKER_03: Billy was 21 years old.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_03: Now, um, if you saw Emilio Esteves and uh with a cameo by John Bon Jovi in uh Young Guns 2, you may suspect that William Bonnie wasn't actually killed that day by Pat Garrett, and somehow he got away.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_03: Somehow he got away.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy Grassoffi.
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_03: Any you have any theories on uh Billy the Kid?
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_00: No, all I can tell you is this is our longest episode ever, and I want to talk about that.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_01: I want to talk because it don't matter now.
• 48:30
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the long episode, police aren't gonna arrest us.
• 48:33
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, explain to people what it's like to be a rogue and not get in trouble with it.
• 48:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like, no one will stop the show until we hit stop.
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's hilarious, isn't it?
• 48:44
  SPEAKER_03: Well, it's it's the kind of thing where it's a true free market.
• 48:48
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, if anybody is still around, here's here's what we'll be.
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_03: If anybody is still watching, send me an email DavisM at nezvik, N-E-S-B-I-C-K.com.
• 49:01
  SPEAKER_03: If you are still here, you know what?
• 49:03
  SPEAKER_03: If you are still here, shout out to you, double shout out to you, Davis M atnesvik.com.
• 49:11
  SPEAKER_03: 1969, the United States officially withdrew the$500,$1,000,$5,000, and$10,000 bills from circulation, citing their primary use in organized crime and rather than ordinary commerce.
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_01: You keep this up.
• 49:29
  SPEAKER_01: I know a guy is gonna take care of you.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_03: You naturally Tommy, do you know uh what baby's real name was in Dirty Dancing?
• 49:37
  SPEAKER_03: Not the actress, the character's real name.
• 49:39
  SPEAKER_03: I think he said it one time.
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_01: Baby's real name.
• 49:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I know nobody puts baby in the corner, but I don't know what baby's name is.
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_03: Frances.
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_03: Frances.
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, Francis.
• 49:50
  SPEAKER_03: Her father calls her calls her baby because she was the baby of the family.
• 49:54
  SPEAKER_03: Nobody puts Francis in a corner either, but it doesn't really have the same ring.
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_03: Jerry Orbach, by the way, from Law and Order, was the guy.
• 50:02
  SPEAKER_03: And uh finally, here's just one more little mildly interesting fact.
• 50:05
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, we've come this far.
• 50:06
  SPEAKER_03: Why not read them all?
• 50:07
  SPEAKER_03: Let's just keep going.
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_03: The sleeve on the outside of a coffee cup is called a zarf.
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
• 50:14
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_03: The word originally referred to an ornamental metal holder for a hot coffee cup used in the Middle East.
• 50:21
  SPEAKER_03: It has been repurposed for cardboard sleeves.
• 50:25
  SPEAKER_03: So next time you're getting your uh your expensive Starbucks there, Tommy, make sure and ask him for a Zarf.
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_02: I had too many beers and then I zarfed.
• 50:35
  SPEAKER_03: I think we're gonna I think we're gonna cut it off there, everybody.
• 50:38
  SPEAKER_03: We're almost to the one hour mark, our longest and you know, our sassiest show thus far.
• 50:45
  SPEAKER_03: We appreciate you being here.
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_03: If you've made it this far, seriously, Davis M at nesvik.com, just uh email me made it or in the comments.
• 50:54
  SPEAKER_03: If you're on YouTube, give me a made it drop.
• 50:57
  SPEAKER_03: We sure appreciate it if you did.
• 50:59
  SPEAKER_03: If um, I mean you're a glutton for punishment.
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_03: If you made it this far, I would direct you to agbull.com, wherever you may be.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_03: You can dig deeper with AgBull Intel, take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull.
• 51:09
  SPEAKER_03: Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_03: That's 855-737 F A R, followed by the letter M for the details.
• 51:19
  SPEAKER_03: Tomorrow afternoon I will chat with Zach Hefty from Hefty Seed.
• 51:23
  SPEAKER_03: And Judge Jed, you got the you got the morning calls bright and early, or are you gonna have Tommy do it?
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I'm gonna be there bright and early.
• 51:30
  SPEAKER_02: Hope you have it coming.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_01: That guy had two pages of a list he does today.
• 51:37
  SPEAKER_03: Or Jed, Joe, Lindsay, and Guillermo.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_03: It's your foul, Davis Michelson.
• 51:42
  SPEAKER_03: I gotta go, everybody.
• 51:44
  SPEAKER_03: I got someplace to be.
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_03: Thanks for being here with us, everybody.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_03: Tune in tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon and every market day for Ag Squawk.
• 51:52
  SPEAKER_03: See you later.
• 51:53
  SPEAKER_01: Peace, everyone, you can't do it.