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How are we supposed to feel now that the vibecession is over? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Exchange with Chuck Zutta and Paul Lane.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck Paul Tucker with you here today and as we
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  Speaker 2: kick off our Tuesday's show, we got some more economic
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  Speaker 2: data to look at today. Two fresh reports out this morning.
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  Speaker 2: The first one and the one that people are more
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  Speaker 2: familiar with, is the Retail Sales Report. Data comes out
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  Speaker 2: every month and tells us, hey, where are Americans spending
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  Speaker 2: money in the retail world and how much are they spending.
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  Speaker 2: The headline number this month, Paul came in at point
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  Speaker 2: seven percent, but stripping out autos, which were up two
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  Speaker 2: point eight percent for the month, we saw the X
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  Speaker 2: autos number come up just zero point two percent. What
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  Speaker 2: are your thoughts on what we got from this report today.
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  Speaker 3: I was overly optimistic in terms of the numbers that
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  Speaker 3: we saw across the board. I mean, auto certainly had
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  Speaker 3: a significant impact on things, but it did indicate to
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  Speaker 3: me that the consumer remains resilient. If you look at
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  Speaker 3: consumer spending, whether it's through GDP or retail sales, which
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  Speaker 3: we're talking about here, it's been a pretty strong year
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  Speaker 3: for the consumer in general. Where we saw that point
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  Speaker 3: seven increase and a three point eight percent year over
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  Speaker 3: year increase through the month from November. Unless you have
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  Speaker 3: a more do you have a more dismal view of
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  Speaker 3: it just because of that outsize impact from autos.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I don't know that I have a dismal view.
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  Speaker 2: I don't look at it and say, oh, man, this
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  Speaker 2: is this is horrible. Yeah, but I do think this
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  Speaker 2: is one where there's been a lot of chatter and
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  Speaker 2: pieces written about people that have been going out and
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  Speaker 2: stocking up on things and including making big purchases trying
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  Speaker 2: to front run potential tariffs. That the place that you
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  Speaker 2: would see that you know, most notably would be in
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  Speaker 2: autos because obviously the potential tariff on a car is
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  Speaker 2: a lot higher than the potential tariff.
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  Speaker 4: On you know, a pair or a banana.
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  Speaker 2: So I do look at this and I say, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: the expectations were already high on this front, for you know,
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  Speaker 2: half a percent on the headline number, the core number
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  Speaker 2: actually disappointed. Excluding autos. We were expecting to see zero
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  Speaker 2: point four percent. That was the consensus estimate out there,
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  Speaker 2: and we came in at point two. So I think
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  Speaker 2: that's a little bit lighter on that front. And to me, again,
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  Speaker 2: I don't think there's any weakness that you can tell
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  Speaker 2: from this report, but I think it's much more Hey,
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  Speaker 2: with with all the stories being written and the anecdotes
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  Speaker 2: about people trying to go out and buy things before
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  Speaker 2: tariffs potentially take place, to see this kind of growth without,
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  Speaker 2: you know, out outside of autos, I think it's something
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  Speaker 2: where you say, oh, like, that's a little bit disappointing
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  Speaker 2: from my perspective. It's it's not inherently bad or anything,
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  Speaker 2: but it's kind of like, eh, it's it's okay, it's
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  Speaker 2: it's it's good, it's not great, And it does make
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  Speaker 2: you wonder, Hey, if that impulse is real, and that
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  Speaker 2: impulse fades after the next month or so, what does
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  Speaker 2: it look like then if all that retail buying has
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  Speaker 2: been pulled forward.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and the next question is just where does this
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  Speaker 3: go in terms of its impact on the federal reserve,
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  Speaker 3: which we'll get to here. But it's hard to parse out,
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  Speaker 3: you know, whether this is truly a one off specific
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  Speaker 3: to tariffs, or if there are going to be other
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  Speaker 3: parts of consumer spending that would pick up in subs
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  Speaker 3: good months. But it does seem like all indications on
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  Speaker 3: the holiday spending. Off side that there is quite a
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  Speaker 3: bit of resiliency on the consumer spending, so we'll have
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  Speaker 3: to see how it plays out.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree on that front.
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  Speaker 2: It's it's something where you at least look at these
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  Speaker 2: numbers and you say, hey, consumers were at least able
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  Speaker 2: to make these purchases and willing to And whether that
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  Speaker 2: spending was, you know, from next month, or was already
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  Speaker 2: going to be in this month. I think it matters
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  Speaker 2: to a certain extent, But ultimately we're not overly concerned
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  Speaker 2: with month to month fluctuations much more where is the
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  Speaker 2: trend going over three or four months, and so hey,
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  Speaker 2: if we see that for the you know, three month
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  Speaker 2: period of November through January, things are on trend.
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  Speaker 4: Okay. I don't know that you can tell anything bad
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  Speaker 4: from that. Inherently.
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  Speaker 2: The place where you are seeing something that's a little
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  Speaker 2: bit discouraging is the industrial production numbers that came out
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  Speaker 2: about forty five minutes later at nine to fifteen Eastern
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  Speaker 2: And what we saw here second straight month of decline
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  Speaker 2: here on industrial production, and we were expecting to see
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  Speaker 2: a little bit of a rebound in November, the big,
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  Speaker 2: big reason being October had a couple things that were
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  Speaker 2: going against it. The first was you had hurricanes that
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  Speaker 2: had hit in late September and early October, and so
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  Speaker 2: they had taken out some industrial production capacity in the southeast.
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  Speaker 2: The second was you had a Boeing strike that was
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  Speaker 2: going on through a portion of October, and so you said, okay,
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  Speaker 2: like you should get a bounce.
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  Speaker 4: Back from that.
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  Speaker 2: Instead, month over month, industrial production came in down point
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  Speaker 2: one percent the month, and so you kind of look
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  Speaker 2: at it and you go, okay, is there something weird
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  Speaker 2: going on here for whatever reason? Again, it's it's two months,
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  Speaker 2: so I don't know that you look at this and go, hey,
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  Speaker 2: this is something that you need to make a huge
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  Speaker 2: deal about. But ultimately, this is something that still is
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  Speaker 2: a driving factor in the US economy, and if you're
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  Speaker 2: getting prints that are contractionary by nature, you look at
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  Speaker 2: it and go, is there something I need to be
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  Speaker 2: worried about in terms of where this is going and
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  Speaker 2: it requires further monitoring.
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  Speaker 4: I think, in my.
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  Speaker 3: Opinion, I think that's fair to make those points of
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  Speaker 3: concern because you look at whether it's this report specific
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  Speaker 3: to industrial production or if you look at the manufacturing
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  Speaker 3: PMI reports, they have both been weak. Like you mentioned,
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  Speaker 3: over the first quarter, or rather the last quarter of
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, there has been not a lot of
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  Speaker 3: economic expansion in.
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  Speaker 4: Those areas of the market.
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  Speaker 3: So I definitely think that it bears monitoring heading into
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  Speaker 3: twenty five that we really haven't seen a lot of uptick.
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  Speaker 3: These have been some pretty weak reports, so I think
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  Speaker 3: certainly fair on that side of things to raise just
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of concern to monitor industrial production and manufacturing,
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  Speaker 3: the retail sales side of things, something that it bears
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  Speaker 3: monitoring as well, I guess, But none of this chuck
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  Speaker 3: that points outly to you know, overly concerning, but things
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  Speaker 3: to monitor like like you mentioned.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair in terms of you know,
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  Speaker 2: how to look at these and what you do with them. Actually,
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  Speaker 2: it doesn't always have to be hey, best economy ever
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  Speaker 2: or worst economy ever. There are shades of gray in
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  Speaker 2: the middle, and sometimes it's okay to just say, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: this is fine, we can we can watch it, but
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  Speaker 2: it's it's fine and we can see where it goes
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  Speaker 2: from here. This leads us into the topic of the
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  Speaker 2: Federal Reserve meeting that is going to conclude tomorrow, and hey,
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  Speaker 2: what do we see from the Fed tomorrow? But more importantly,
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  Speaker 2: it's it's kind of baked into markets right now that
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  Speaker 2: you're going to see a cut from the Fed tomorrow.
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  Speaker 2: There's almost a one chance priced in by the FED
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  Speaker 2: Fund's futures market. The bigger question is what kind of
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  Speaker 2: guidance do we get from the Fed? And how does
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  Speaker 2: Jay Powell talk about this? And I think we've seen,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the preview of this in several Nick Timmeros
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  Speaker 2: pieces from the Wall Street Journal, just because you know,
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  Speaker 2: Nick and Jay have a pretty close relationship, and so
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  Speaker 2: Nick gets the scoops on what's going on at the FED,
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  Speaker 2: and by and large it seems to be, hey, we're
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  Speaker 2: we're going.
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  Speaker 4: To cut tomorrow, is the messaging.
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  Speaker 2: But don't expect much from us in the near future,
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  Speaker 2: because we think we've done enough given how the economic
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  Speaker 2: data currently looks relative to four or five months ago,
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  Speaker 2: and as such, you should be prepared for us to
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  Speaker 2: take a little bit of a pause, because by and
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  Speaker 2: large the data has gotten better in October and November
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  Speaker 2: relative to what we were seeing in July, August, in
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  Speaker 2: the first part of September.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, So back in July, like you were mentioning,
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  Speaker 3: particularly the labor market was an area of concern.
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  Speaker 4: Some of those concerns.
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  Speaker 3: Have been remedied temporarily, though you can make arguments the
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  Speaker 3: other way that and we'll get into that later on
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  Speaker 3: the analysis. It's just where the labor market stands. But
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  Speaker 3: the trends that were emerging July didn't tend to be
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  Speaker 3: as difficult as we thought it was going to be
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  Speaker 3: for the labor market. We now sit looking at the
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  Speaker 3: CME futures, as you mentioned, ninety five percent probability that
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  Speaker 3: we will see that twenty five basis point cut tomorrow.
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  Speaker 3: What will be interesting to see is, you know, like
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  Speaker 3: you said, what does twenty twenty five look like. If
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  Speaker 3: we're looking out at the first meeting for twenty twenty
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  Speaker 3: five in January, it does seem at the moment that
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  Speaker 3: there's an eighty percent probability that the FED would just
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  Speaker 3: stand pat and just stay where they are after assuming
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  Speaker 3: a cut in tomorrow's meeting. What we see from projection
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  Speaker 3: from the Fed, the Fed back in September, its officials
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  Speaker 3: had projected about four cuts for twenty twenty five. That number,
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  Speaker 3: it seems like from this piece here by Nick tim
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  Speaker 3: Moros is going to be lowered a bit, so all
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  Speaker 3: of that information we'll be looking to gather some more
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  Speaker 3: sort of tidbits on, but also what are the policy
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  Speaker 3: impacts going to have That is something that's being battered
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  Speaker 3: around as well.
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  Speaker 4: Stake a quick break here.
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  Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll talk about the economic vibes
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  Speaker 2: that we're seeing. Is the vibe session over at this point.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: We'll discuss when we return.
• 10:34
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• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Paul, We got a piece in the Wall Street Journal
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  Speaker 2: today and it is talking about the end of the
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  Speaker 2: Vibe session.
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  Speaker 4: What are we seeing here man the vibe session.
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  Speaker 3: To educate everyone out there who may not be familiar
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: with this kind of niche term here is that there
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  Speaker 3: was a big disconnect between how well the economy was
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  Speaker 3: doing and how people felt about themselves financially. Obviously, we're
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  Speaker 3: coming off the heels of, you know, several years of
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  Speaker 3: elevated inflation. So when you looked at the polling on
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  Speaker 3: consumer confidence and all these other metrics heading into twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty four and through the midst of it, there were
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  Speaker 3: very negative readings in terms of how the consumer felt,
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  Speaker 3: contrasted with an economy that was actually pretty strong. We
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  Speaker 3: saw a you know, two point eight percent GDP print
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  Speaker 3: for Q three of this year. The economy is growing
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  Speaker 3: at a good pace, the labor market is in a
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  Speaker 3: pretty sound space. But really, what we've seen for a
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  Speaker 3: long time is that the consumer had not been happy.
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  Speaker 3: That seems to be slightly changing here as we had
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  Speaker 3: indications from surveys that were done that the Consumer Conference
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  Speaker 3: Board Confidence Index rose in November to the highest level
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  Speaker 3: since twenty twenty three, and you also had about thirty
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  Speaker 3: eight percent of households anticipating that their financial situation is
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  Speaker 3: going to be better over the course of the next year,
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  Speaker 3: with the highest since February of twenty twenty.
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  Speaker 2: In terms of you know what this means actually, do
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  Speaker 2: we have anything in evidence that suggests, hey, now that
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  Speaker 2: we're seeing this, this means x.
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  Speaker 4: Y or z for the real economy.
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  Speaker 3: To me, I don't think there's a real direct correlation
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  Speaker 3: that you can draw from consumer confidence relative to how
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  Speaker 3: the economy is going to perform. It seems like that
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  Speaker 3: it's hard to draw straight line through the two things,
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  Speaker 3: you know, working in conjunction, just because the consumer tends
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  Speaker 3: to have a different view than what truly is going
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: on from an economic perspective.
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  Speaker 2: So I think that this is one where look, the
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  Speaker 2: soft data matters to a certain extent. We covered obviously,
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  Speaker 2: and we've talked about this, But ultimately, what you care
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  Speaker 2: about in the economy is hey, like, show me the
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: actual growth that's happening. Show me what you're getting is
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  Speaker 2: far are as, you know, actual economic production and expansion,
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  Speaker 2: and that's the stuff that that matters more. We've also
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  Speaker 2: seen how look, you can have things that you know,
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  Speaker 2: present themselves on the surface as being a good economy,
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  Speaker 2: but people still don't feel good about it for and
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  Speaker 2: any variety of reasons. If if you looked back at
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: you know, the the middle of this year, look, take
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: a look at where we are right now. Just as
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: an example, unemployments at four point one percent, headline inflation
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: is running i think two six or two seven somewhere
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: in that ballpark. And if if you just pulled Americans,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: you know, without saying that they've gone through it, but
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: just said, hey, unemployments at four percent and inflation's at
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: two point seven, how do you how would you feel
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: about the economy? Most of them probably be like, well, great,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Like it's you know, unemployments low and inflation is you
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: know moderate, Like it's it's not too high, uh, but
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  Speaker 2: it's it's fine.
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  Speaker 4: Instead, like we've.
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  Speaker 2: Generally gotten pretty bad readings on the economy. And it's
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  Speaker 2: partly because the last you know, number of years, the
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: last five years now have basically been something where each
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: year you've been dealing with something new, and so it's
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: been okay, we're just kind of getting hit over and over.
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  Speaker 2: And so even though the broad economic data that we
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: look at has been pretty darn acceptable mm hmm, people
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  Speaker 2: still haven't felt good about it because of the path
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  Speaker 2: that we've taken to get there exactly.
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  Speaker 3: It's just you can't overstate it enough how much inflation
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: really seems to impact those those consumer confidence numbers, because
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: that was the whole story for the last you know,
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: six months a year with these these reports.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and and so I think that as we look at,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: you know, how the the sentiment polling is is coming
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: out on the economy, I think one thing that this
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: has taught me, and we covered the you know yesterday
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: about look the the political swings that you see whenever
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: there's a change in the presidency. We covered it because
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: for the last twenty five years you've been seeing this,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: you know, as consistent as gravity. It's just every time
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: there's a new president elected, the people who are responding
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: from that president's party say things are good and the
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: other group says things are bad. So like, we we
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: know that that's something that happens. But the other thing
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  Speaker 2: that this is I think it enlightened for me as
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: far as, hey, how do people actually think about the economy.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: It's not just about where it is today? And I
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: think I largely I used to believe that it was
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: more about, hey, where are we going? But the lived
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: experience matters as well in terms of, hey, what have
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: you actually gone through in order to get there?
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  Speaker 4: And that's not something that.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: Really clicked for me before this because ultimately, more most
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: of the data that we were seeing until this point
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: just because we hadn't really had any meaningful inflation in
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: forty years, and so, you know, during my career, it
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: hasn't been something that mattered until the last three years.
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  Speaker 2: It was really Hey, the data that we're seeing now
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  Speaker 2: is pretty reflective of the sentiment. Data is pretty reflective
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: of current economic conditions, and this is the first time
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  Speaker 2: that that it's kind of not been in my opinion,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: I'm interested if you have any thoughts on that, Paul.
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  Speaker 3: In terms of just the the alignment and then the
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: disconnect between you know, where the economy is versus what
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: people feel where it is.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think, quite honestly, it goes to that
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  Speaker 2: inflation piece, because like you go back and you look
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: at two thousand and nine through like twenty sixteen, just
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: as an example, and there was a pretty clear correlation
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: between as unemployment went down and as the stock market
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: went up, sentiment got better. And this time, even though
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: inflation came down from twenty twenty two, even though unemployment
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: came down from twenty twenty one, and even though the
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: stock market went up aside from twenty twenty two where
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: it did have a hiccup, but you know, the four
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: or five year trend has been up in the stock market,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: you still had people rating the economy badly.
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: And the only thing that I can pull from that
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: is people get really upset at high prices.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: That was really a huge takeaway to me that I
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: learned about too, just because, like you said, our careers
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: had not overlapped with such a significant period of inflation.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: And how frustrated I still see it today, Chuck, meeting
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: with clients, how upset people are about the price of groceries,
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: about the price of new vehicles that still lingers on
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: much longer than I would have anticipated if you had
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: just told me the numerical data that we would see
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: from an inflation perspective, I wouldn't feel as if it
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: would have such a lingering impact. And I do feel
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: like perhaps some of this renewed optimism that we're seeing
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: here and covering this story is the fact that the
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: longer time marches on where you see inflace in trending
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: at two six or two seven, the further away they
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: distance themselves from those memories of inflationary times, and that
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: will leads to this renewed optimism on the economy.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: So that's what we've got going on as it relates
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: to the Vibe session, And so we'll put that one
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: to bed for a little bit here. Why don't we
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: take a little bit of a break as we head
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: towards the bottom of the hour. When we come back,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: we got Wall Street Watch.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Street Watch a complete look at what's moving market so
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: far today right here on the Financial Exchange Change Radio Network.
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: Well, markets are retreating as investors digest November retail sales
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: data posted this morning, where retail sales climb zero point
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: seven percent in November, better than estimates of zero point
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: six percent. Wall Street's also readying for the conclusion to
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: the fed's final meeting of the year tomorrow afternoon. Right now,
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: that Dow is off by two hundred and fifty four points,
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: or about six tenths of a percent. SMP five hundred
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: also down by nearly six tenths of a percent, or
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: thirty four points, and the Nasdaq is down by three
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: quarters of a percent or one hundred and forty eight
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: points or Ruster two thousand selling off by over one
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: percent or twenty eight points. Ten year treasure yield is
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: down by one basis point at four point three eight percent,
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: and crude oiled down nearly two percent lower on the day,
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: trading at sixty nine dollars in forty three cents a barrel.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: Fizer shares are up by four percent after the drug
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: maker unveiled its twenty twenty five forecasts that met Wall
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: Street expectations, projecting double digit earnings growth. Meanwhile, Buy Now,
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: Pay Later company, a firm, said it plans to sell
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: seven hundred and fifty million dollars in convertible notes and
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: use the proceeds to buy back some of its stock
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: and other securities. A firm stock down by five percent
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: on the day. Elsewhere, Nvidia down by three percent a
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: day after entering correction. Territory Broadcom shares are actually pulling
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: back by six percent today after rallying more than forty
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: five percent over the past week following its upbeat forecasts
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: as revenue from its AI business grows. Solar Edge Technologies
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: received a double upgrade from Goldman Stacks to buy from sell,
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: with the bank sees the makings of a turnaround story
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: for the clean energy company, with twenty twenty five being
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: a key inflection point. That stock is up by sixteen
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: percent and share in PG and E up by about
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: one percent so far today, following the news that the
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Biden administration will lend the utility company a record fifteen
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: billion dollars to finance its efforts to upgrade the power
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: grid and reduce reduce admissions. I'm Tucker Silvan Mass Wall Street.
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: Watch Paul. Let's take a quick look.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about the I
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: know that we cover this every day because because there's
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: freaking three months between the election or two months between
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: the election and the inauguration, What do business people think
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: about Trump coming into office? Don't like they're excited, right, Like,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: they're hopeful they're gonna get more tax cuts.
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: How many times are we gonna say it?
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: The high points, Yeah, you're right is ultimately, if you
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: are in Wall Street or if you had voted for Trump,
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: certainly you're gonna be wearing rose colored glasses and feel
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: as if that all the economic policies that he is
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: going to present are going to be additive to the
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: market and the economy in general, and you're going to
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: dismiss the notions that the ones that could be perhaps
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: less favorable, and tariffs is usually the one that could
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: fall in the less favorable camp from an economic perspective,
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: that those are rather a bargaining chip than something that
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: is actually going to come to fruition. And that's basically
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: the gist of this piece here that goes through sort
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: of the two sides to Wall Street's expectations for a
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: Trump presidency. The tariffs remain a huge concern, but if
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: you are in favor of Trump and his economic policies,
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: you're less concerned that they're going to be as widespread
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: as rumored, and then on the other side, you are
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: encouraged by the fact that there will be less regulation
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: and lower taxes. Those continue to be sort of the
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: bullpunt items.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: As you mentioned.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: What's so challenging about all this is we don't know,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: We have no idea what it's really going to look like,
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: and it's anyone's guess how severe some of these actions
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: will be.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we just don't know, and we still have a
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: little bit over a month to go, which means that
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: we just get the endless speculation from writers like, well
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: maybe it's gonna be this, Well, maybe it's gonna be that,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: And it's kind of like, okay, well it's gonna be something.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: So why don't we just move the inauguration up a
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: month and call to day.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: The one area that I'm a little bit I can
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: speak with more conviction that I'm pessimistic on the significant
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: impacts of it is this idea of putting together a
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: significant effort to cut down any physical deficit that the
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: country has on the federal level. I just don't feel
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: as if there is going to be significant impact on
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: those endeavors. The committee with Musk and others to really
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: scrutinize spending and get that to a better level. I
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: just think that's way too difficult of a challenge, and
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: that is mentioned this piece here, So that's one area
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: where I can speak with a little more conviction that
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: I just feel like that's gonna be too uphill of
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: a client to get Congress to sign off on any
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: significant cuts that are going to be make a meaningful
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: impact to the overlying deficit.
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll this is an area where I think that
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: you know, look, people were talking about it, like you know,
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Elon Musk is gonna come in and just be like, oh,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: like I'm getting rid of like everyone in the government.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: And ay, Elon Musk is not employed by the US government,
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: so he can't actually do that.
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: Number one h B.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Look, we've had multiple attempts, multiple chances to try to
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: manage federal spending in the last couple of decades, including
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: a previous Trump presidency. So when we look at the
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: record of whether you go through George W. Bush, Barack Obama,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, you go through there and say, hey,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: which one of these presidents you know, presided over a
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Congress that you know decided to meaningfully manage the deficit
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: downward in any kind of fashion. Out of those four,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: the answer is none of them, right, Which the piece
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: that's really interesting on this to me is that there
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: is a c change that happened when Bush two came
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: into office because, for better for worse, Reagan, Bush one,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: and Clinton all had reckonings during their presidencies where they
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: either said, Hey, I've got to raise taxes or I've
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: got to cut spending, and in ways that they didn't
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: want to. Reagan and Bush both had to raise taxes
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: before the end of their term actually because there was
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: concern about the US fiscal side and they didn't want
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: to do. You think Ronald Reagan like sat awake and
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: I being like, ah, I would love to go and
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: raise taxes. No like of course, same with George he
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: had no desire to go and do that. On the
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: other side of things, Bill Clinton had no desire to
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: go in and cut federal spending, but he was pushed
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: because of how midterms went in ninety four and basically
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: had to go and go along with a Republican Congress
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: that said, yeah, like, we're going to push for some
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: spending reforms and things like that, and ultimately all three
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: of those presidents, two Republicans and one Democrat, said yeah,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: we've got to figure out how to manage the deficit
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit more appropriately here, the last four presidents,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: two Republicans and two Democrats, there aren't really facts and
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: evidence on any of their terms that suggest that deficit
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: control was a meaningful thing that they cared about. And
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: so it's not just Elon Musk being able to come
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: in and say, well, I'm gonna go and cut this
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: and cut that, because Elon cannot do that that that's
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: not how any of this works. And in fact, what
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: you will find more often than not is congressmen, senators
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: they want federal spending in their districts and states because
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: it creates jobs and brings money to their states. And
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: so you have to have a concerted effort at the
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: congressional level to say no, like, I'm not going to
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: pursue that policy because there's something bigger that we need
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: to deal with on the federal level, and as such,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: we're going.
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: To do so.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: So I think when the rubber actually meets the road
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: on this, you're going.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: To see, hey, like, who actually.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Is going to put up or shut up on this
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: and maybe, look, maybe you actually get some kind of
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: meaningful reduction, but it's probably not coming from getting rid
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: of a few people that are working at the Social
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Security Administration or the NAA or NASA or wherever the
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: heck it is, right, because that's not where the spending
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: is going. The spending is going to Social Security, Medicare,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: the Defense Department, an interest on the national debt.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: Yep, hard to touch those four.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: It's kind of hard to touch. I mean, look, we
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: just saw an NDAA bill pass the House. I'm pretty
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: sure it passed the House. It certainly passed the House
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: Armed Services Committee. I'm pretty sure it cleared the House
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: as well, for nine hundred plus billion dollars for next year.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: Doesn't seem like the House wants to cut defense spending.
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: No. I also have.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: Not seen anything past the House or Senate about reducing
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Social Security outlays or Medicare outlays for obvious reasons and
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: as far as the interest on the deficit goes, unless
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: you want to get into controlling every aspect of interest rates,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: not just you know, short term through the federal reserve,
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: but hey, like we want to make you know, all
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: interest rates one percent. It's not really You've already spent
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: the money and the interest rate is what's being set
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: by the market now, So you don't really have a
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: ton of control over that because those are decisions that
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: you made over the last ten twenty thirty years that
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: got you to this point.
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: So you've got to see some actual work done there.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that it can't happen, but I'm
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: saying the facts for the last two and a half
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: decades are not in evidence that our politicians are sufficiently
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: concerned with the deficit to make a real impact there.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of where I land. Anything else
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: to add on that, Paul.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: No, I'm in the same boat.
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: Let's take a quick break right now.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: When we come back, let's see what do we want
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: to get into. Then you want to do a deal
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: making or TikTok band, Paul, Let's go TikTok TikTok right
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: after this.
• 30:54
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• 30:58
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• 31:02
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• 31:07
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• 31:10
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• 31:16
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• 31:28
  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk a little bit about TikTok. Paul So,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: TikTok has now asked the US Supreme Court to intervene
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: on the ban that is scheduled to begin in a
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: little over a month. I believe it's January nineteenth is
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: when it is set to begin.
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: What are they saying? How are they approaching this?
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know we were not seeing you know,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: oral arguments or anything along those lines, but they're clearly saying, hey,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: like you need to help us on this, because we
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: don't want to sell this exactly.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: They're just trying to enact any type of delay tactics
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: that they can. As you mentioned, it is to go
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: into effect on January nineteenth. At that point in time,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: no downloads or updates of TikTok could occur across Google
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: services or apples you know, app store at that point
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: in time. And so as a result, what you've seen
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: is the lawyers for TikTok and it's pairing company, Byte Dance,
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: asking to suspend the band and allow them to appeal
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: the lower court ruling that had been reached earlier this
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: year regarding this band for January nineteenth, and it's just
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: interesting case to continue to fall, particularly it coincides with
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: I believe Trump will step into office the day after
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: the twentieth Yeah, the day after. In his first term,
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: he was, you know, for this idea of banning TikTok,
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: but then during his recent presidency run, it seemed like
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: he I believe, has his own had his own TikTok account,
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: utilized it as part of the election campaign.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: So not only that said, look, I don't want to
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: ban it anymore.
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: Right exactly, So it seems like he has taken a
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: different stance at this point. Basically, what the ruling was
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: supposed to be is that Byte Dance would sell the
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: non Chinese part to someone a US company here because
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: there are concerns from the intelligence community that it posed
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: that a threat to US national security and allowed China
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: the ability to surveil Americans and spread Chinese procapaganda. So
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: that's been at the crux of this issue for a
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: long time.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: We'll be interesting to see what happens. It seems like
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: what is going to happen is the attempt to get
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: this delayed even further and just kick the can down
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: the road to give TikTok and Bite Dance some more
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: time to figure this out.
• 33:50
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• 34:49
  Speaker 4: Paul's your ports ever been pirated?
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: It has, particularly living in the Boston area, not in
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: the burbs.
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: But yas timbers are shivering, definitely been been rated.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: I haven't had well.
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's the city. The city's huge for it.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: And Chuck, it must have happened to you.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, when I was living in Somerville, we had it
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: wasn't like all the time. So I mean there were
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: plenty of times when I had Amazon packages successfully delivered
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: there and it was no real problem. And look, most
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: of the time that stuff was being taken it was like, okay, great,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: you got a stick of deodorant, like good.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: Have fun smelling nice, like great. So I think the
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: thing that.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to wrap my head around is, look, there's
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: this piece in the Boston Globe talking about talk talking about, uh,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: you know, how ports pirates are you know, using more
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: technology to try to you know, get better at stealing
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: and quite honestly, like, here's one thing that I come
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: to on some of this stuff. If if you're just
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: going out and like walking around and you're like, oh,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna take that package. It's dumb and loser ish.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: But like, you don't demonstrate any particular skill at anything.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: If you're coming up with like technological ways of being
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: a better porch pirate man, you probably actually have some talent.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Why not apply that to actually benefiting society in some way?
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I just you know, like it's it's not
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: like you're someone who has no skill or talent at
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: figuring out problems.
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: It's just the ones you're.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Figuring out are a net negative for society because you're
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: stealing people's stuff. And this is something that is more
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: bothersome to me because if someone's just going around just
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: like stealing packages for fun or whatever, Okay, fine, like great,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Like I don't really know what to do with you,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: this is more bothersome to me because it suggests that
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: someone is planning this and actually figuring out how to
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: get around like issues, And to me, that's more like, man,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: you should be doing something with your life.
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: And what's make this feedback lose worse is that companies
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: like Amazon have really thrown their hands up in the
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: air in terms of I mean not like there's a
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: lot of action that they can really take.
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: You could have a doorbell cam and if someone comes
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: in a hooded, you know, outfit and you can't make
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: out their face, what good does that do you? And
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: Amazon has just really said, you know, we had a
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: situation recently where a fondue set was dropped off at
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: our house that was for someone in a town over,
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: and my wife called up as like, hey, we didn't
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: order a fondue set, like can you return in. Amazon's like,
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: don't worry about it, just just hang on to it.
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: And that's been, that's been. That's what they're It's more
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: costly for them to deal with us.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: You know that she tried to foist it on my
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: sister in.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: Law as a Christmas gift, So now it seems like
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: it will be part of our what's the Santa swap called? Uh, Like, yeah,
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: we do a Yankee swap thing at a family party,
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: so I think she's gonna use it for those purposes.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: But it just shows you, Yeah, Amazon doesn't really care.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: So we have a fund.
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: Set, you're regifting somebody else's gift.
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: It's not technically regifting if it wasn't gifted to you.
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: It's some term, though it's here's a question.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: If something gets delivered to your porch by mistake, are
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: you the porch.
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: Pirate we tried to return it.
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break houror two coming up in
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: just a little bit.