Latest / AG Bull / Jim Wiesemeyer & Friends Talk Post-Election Coverage
Transcript
- 0:10SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
- 0:11SPEAKER_00: Tom Grissafi, Eggbull, Media Eggbull Trading.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: We got a four-box set up today.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: We have Mr.
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: Randy Russell, the Russell group.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: Of course, you all know Mr.
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney with Real Agriculture and the one and only Mr.
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: Jim Weissmeyer.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: We're going to get right in the show.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: Allegedly, I'm moderating it.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: And we thank you all for joining the show.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: Be available on Weissmeyer.ag.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, thank you for joining us.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: Number one question, opening round.
- 0:37SPEAKER_00: What did voters say?
- 0:38SPEAKER_00: The stage is yours, gentlemen.
- 0:40SPEAKER_03: Well, I'm going to go with a very quick summary first, Tommy.
- 0:43SPEAKER_03: The midterm election blowout, and that's an understatement, has set up a new area in Washington with Democrats.
- 0:49SPEAKER_03: They're very eager now to meet voter demands for change, while Republicans watch their congressional majorities evaporate in a revolt against President Donald Trump's policies and the Republican policies.
- 1:02SPEAKER_03: Democrats triumphed in several surprise upsets, marking a decisive rejection of unified Republican control of the House and Senate.
- 1:12SPEAKER_03: The House Democrats could reach as many as 260 total Democrats, their biggest majority since the early 1990s.
- 1:20SPEAKER_03: They had 257 following Barack Obama's historic victory in 2008 before the Tea Party wave.
- 1:27SPEAKER_03: And it looks like the Democrats could have, they have now 54 seats, but they could have two more, 56 seats.
- 1:35SPEAKER_03: It depends on Alaska and Mississippi.
- 1:38SPEAKER_03: So the Democratic candidate in Mississippi is slightly ahead.
- 1:42SPEAKER_03: Trump acknowledged the Iran war affected the midterms, suggesting voters were frustrated by those surging gas and diesel prices that have been a byproduct of the eight-month conflict.
- 1:53SPEAKER_03: The fallout for Republicans is only beginning.
- 1:56SPEAKER_03: Vice President J.D.
- 1:57SPEAKER_03: Vance, a two 2028 presidential contender, blamed the war in Iran for a Republican's midterm tsunami.
- 2:06SPEAKER_03: And Mike Johnson of Louisiana said he will not seek re-election as House Speaker.
- 2:11SPEAKER_03: Lastly, Democrats are say they're ready to launch a 100-day agenda to lower the cost of gas, groceries, and healthcare and conduct vast oversight and investigations into Trump and his administration with impeachment an option.
- 2:27SPEAKER_03: That's the summary.
- 2:35SPEAKER_02: Well, thank you, Tommy, for thank you, Tommy, for reserving a few minutes of my time.
- 2:40SPEAKER_02: Good to be with you, Sean, and always a pleasure to be with Jim.
- 2:44SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I would just say this that, you know, when I played baseball in college and we had a great weekend and carried a weekend series and won overwhelmingly, we called it a gag, and that's a general ass kicking.
- 2:57SPEAKER_02: And that's exactly what happened last night to Republicans.
- 3:01SPEAKER_02: It was a terrific night.
- 3:03SPEAKER_02: If you were a Democrat, as Jim said, it looks like now we're going to be in the Senate, somewhere between the Democrats picking up seven seats and nine seats, which would put them at 56 in the House.
- 3:16SPEAKER_02: I think we're looking somewhere of a net gain of 40 to maybe 44 seats.
- 3:22SPEAKER_02: And then I think what is really kind of the untold story is what's happening at the state level, where Democrats have picked up five governorships and could pick up possibly one or two more.
- 3:38SPEAKER_02: And if you look at the seven battleground states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all seven battleground states that Trump won two years ago now have Democratic governors.
- 3:56SPEAKER_02: So quite a sea change that's happened, and I think we're going to see a few more changes here over the next 24 to 48 hours.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: Let's take it up north, uh, Mr.
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: Haney, Canadian perspective.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: And of course, you spend as much time as America as you do Canada.
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: What are you seeing?
- 4:13SPEAKER_01: So general ass kicking.
- 4:15SPEAKER_01: I like that, Randy.
- 4:16SPEAKER_01: That was good.
- 4:16SPEAKER_01: It sort of reminded me, remember the Super Bowl between the Falcons and the Patriots?
- 4:21SPEAKER_01: It it kind of like felt like the second half of that game.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: It's sort of what it felt like.
- 4:27SPEAKER_01: And uh, you know, you look at uh Texas and that race, uh uh Tel Rico winning that.
- 4:34SPEAKER_01: How about how about the Texas uh governorship, uh, Abbott?
- 4:37SPEAKER_01: That that that was a I I was not following that one.
- 4:40SPEAKER_01: That was a real surprise.
- 4:42SPEAKER_01: Uh and it all comes down obviously, it's it's affordability.
- 4:45SPEAKER_01: And you could I think some people are uh maybe too much jumping to tariffs on affordability.
- 4:52SPEAKER_01: It really comes down to the Iran war and affordability.
- 4:56SPEAKER_01: And during you know, the the the president's last two weeks of stump speeches asking people to, you know, if prices are up just a little bit and hang with them.
- 5:06SPEAKER_01: Uh clearly that's not the way that last night went.
- 5:10SPEAKER_01: As affordability has been the number one concern for Americans.
- 5:14SPEAKER_01: It's the number one concern in Europe, it's the number one concern in Canada.
- 5:18SPEAKER_01: And clearly they don't feel like he's really addressing it.
- 5:21SPEAKER_01: And you know, the landslide for for the Democrats, it's interesting without a real message other than Trump not good.
- 5:29SPEAKER_01: And so it's interesting they have this a hundred-day plan.
- 5:32SPEAKER_01: This would be the first time the Democrats are actually potentially organized in how many years?
- 5:38SPEAKER_01: I you know, we'll get into what this means going forward, but I I I just think that you know they've got to be careful they don't fall into a trap here, too, of thinking that this is some sort of clear mandate for them, because I don't think that that's really the case either.
- 5:51SPEAKER_03: Yeah, well, they've had two elections in the past that they never did you know get a unified message.
- 5:57SPEAKER_03: So don't know whether they'll learn from their prior mistakes.
- 6:01SPEAKER_03: But though that trade tariff policy, I think, did have an impact in Maine, where Susan Collins was a senator for 30 years, she lost.
- 6:09SPEAKER_03: And in Michigan, it definitely is on the polls.
- 6:13SPEAKER_03: And in Iowa, Iowa tilted Democrat, but they you know they had other issues, of course, in Iowa, but those trade tariffs, because many farmers tell me in my speeches, they wanted to know after all they've been through and what I call the itch-usch Trump trade policy, uh, up and down and uh just almost changing by the week, they wanted to know whether there's true additionality for U.S.
- 6:35SPEAKER_03: farm exports.
- 6:36SPEAKER_03: And I keep asking USDA, and I never get an answer.
- 6:39SPEAKER_03: So I think that had an impact.
- 6:41SPEAKER_01: Well, and Purdue had some data yesterday in their barometer where you know farmers are very concerned about the impact of tariffs on U.S.
- 6:49SPEAKER_01: exports going forward.
- 6:51SPEAKER_01: And that and that tide has shifted as as as well.
- 6:54SPEAKER_01: Uh the the tariffs explain those states, Jim, but do they really explain for South Carolina and North Carolina what happened?
- 7:01SPEAKER_01: I I'm not as sure.
- 7:02SPEAKER_01: That's probably more of just a general affordability scenario.
- 7:05SPEAKER_02: Well, I think there's a couple of issues, Sean, there.
- 7:08SPEAKER_02: One, clearly the war with Iran was, I think, top of mind for a lot of people, particularly from a president who promised to end endless wars.
- 7:18SPEAKER_02: And now we find ourselves in two conflicts with the Russian Ukraine, now going on for over four years, and of course the Iranian situation, which has had a major impact on all petroleum-related prices and their derivatives, including fertilizer and the like, certainly diesel and gasoline prices.
- 7:37SPEAKER_02: So that's one issue.
- 7:39SPEAKER_02: The affordability clearly was a big issue.
- 7:41SPEAKER_02: I mean, I'm fascinated to see where the rural vote and actually the farm vote ends up out of this election.
- 7:48SPEAKER_02: But all you got to do is look at Iowa.
- 7:51SPEAKER_02: Democratic governor, we got a Democratic senator, we have three House seats that flipped that were Republican, that are now held by Democrats in a in what is deemed to be a very rural state.
- 8:06SPEAKER_02: And so I think that sends a pretty strong signal.
- 8:09SPEAKER_02: And even if you take a state like Texas, Sean, you just alluded to what happened at the governor's race, and then the Senate, and then the lieutenant governor, and then the railroad commissioner, and the ag commissioner, all Democrats in Texas.
- 8:25SPEAKER_02: And meanwhile, they redrew these districts in the southern part of the state for certain members, and all three of those members in the Rio Grande Valley got beat.
- 8:37SPEAKER_02: I think primarily because of the ICE situation and the blowback and Hispanics.
- 8:41SPEAKER_02: Be careful.
- 8:45SPEAKER_03: You know, some of the exit polling, Randy, does give an indication of the rural and other reasons.
- 8:50SPEAKER_03: Young voters, Latinos, and white voters without college degrees shifted toward Democrats.
- 8:56SPEAKER_03: Independents favored Democrats by 17 points.
- 8:59SPEAKER_03: The rural support clearly eroded.
- 9:01SPEAKER_03: The Republican uh rural advantage narrowed from 30 points in 2024 to 18 points alongside weaker weaker rural turnout.
- 9:11SPEAKER_03: So that was a double dip on the farmer side.
- 9:15SPEAKER_03: Uh, you know, many just didn't come over.
- 9:16SPEAKER_03: And crossover votes mattered.
- 9:18SPEAKER_03: As Democratic Senate candidates attracted 12% of Republicans in Kansas and 11% in both Texas and South Carolina.
- 9:27SPEAKER_03: I just think those are interesting.
- 9:29SPEAKER_01: Well, Kansas is, you know, Jim, we've talked a lot about this.
- 9:33SPEAKER_01: Kansas is a a real tell on the, I think kind of the sentiment nationally.
- 9:38SPEAKER_01: Uh Roger Marshall losing, tied at the hip to the president, hard for him to separate himself from the Trump policy because it's never disagreed with anything that the president has ever said.
- 9:52SPEAKER_01: And he lost.
- 9:53SPEAKER_01: And if you go back to, I was looking back to like May and what polymarket was saying in terms of the gap there.
- 10:00SPEAKER_01: Like I think Roger Marshall was like an 85 or an 88%.
- 10:04SPEAKER_01: The fact that he lost yesterday, I think should be a real wake-up call in a state like Kansas, based on some of those numbers that you just said.
- 10:13unknown: Yeah.
- 10:14SPEAKER_03: Not only it was it was bad timing for Republicans this time, but it was also in some cases, not Ohio, but in uh Kansas and in Texas, bad candidates.
- 10:24SPEAKER_03: So those were two bads.
- 10:26SPEAKER_03: Ken Patrick.
- 10:28SPEAKER_02: I would add South Carolina to that.
- 10:30SPEAKER_03: South Carolina, true, true.
- 10:32SPEAKER_02: And by the way, I am now I am now a resident of South Carolina and voted there yesterday.
- 10:37SPEAKER_02: And I could tell, I can tell you, you could just feel that even though people might have voted for Darlene Graham, which I did, but I did it with about 12 clothespins on my nose, that she was in deep trouble.
- 10:52SPEAKER_02: Because, as I've said, my 18-year-old daughter, I think, was more qualified to run in the Senate than she was.
- 11:01SPEAKER_02: She was handpicked, and that was a very poor decision.
- 11:04SPEAKER_02: And frankly, it had some decision, it had some big impacts on some of the house races as well in South Carolina.
- 11:12SPEAKER_01: You know, I saw a stat on Fox last night where they said it was something like 45% of Republicans didn't feel that she was qualified for that job.
- 11:23SPEAKER_02: 60% of those voting did not think she was qualified.
- 11:27SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 11:28SPEAKER_02: In a state that's a Republican state.
- 11:31SPEAKER_03: Well, and this is Trump's fault because he goes more on loyalty than actually the best candidate.
- 11:37SPEAKER_03: You saw that in Texas, Cornyn.
- 11:39SPEAKER_03: They wouldn't have to spend 185 million dollars.
- 11:42SPEAKER_03: I don't know whether Cornyn would have still won in this environment, but it's it's uh, you know, it's Trump's uh candidate's picks, especially in Texas with Ken Paxton, who I think helped draw down Abbott.
- 11:55SPEAKER_03: Because I again I give a lot of speeches and I could see farmers when I ask them about Ken Paxton, they visibly moved, they just despise that guy.
- 12:07SPEAKER_03: So I'm telling you, they you you raise a great point of him.
- 12:11SPEAKER_02: You raise a great point, Jim.
- 12:12SPEAKER_02: This may be a circumstance.
- 12:14SPEAKER_02: Normally, the top of the ticket can pull other candidates up or down.
- 12:19SPEAKER_02: In this case, the Senate race, with all the focus on that race, may very well have hurt Abbott and really helped Henahosa who got elected governor.
- 12:32SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 12:32SPEAKER_01: Well, look at Ohio, Rut Russell Swamy, and that disastrous two weeks.
- 12:39SPEAKER_01: And then also the defense of that when you know more mainstream Republicans were like, what you know, no, even inside the state, saying this, this is this this ad needs to be pulled, and Vice President Vance doubling down on it.
- 12:56SPEAKER_01: You know, I I think there's a lot of pre there's a lot of speculation probably getting way ahead of themselves that he really has hurt his chance in the 28th general based on the defense.
- 13:04SPEAKER_01: I people have short memories.
- 13:05SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll see if that becomes a factor.
- 13:07SPEAKER_01: But you know, Ross Swamy is another example that man, his political life is probably probably over if he couldn't win that race, you think, but never say never, I guess.
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, I'm gonna come uh we're doing great.
- 13:20SPEAKER_00: You're doing great, but we're only on talking point number one.
- 13:23SPEAKER_03: So I'm gonna kind of combine we can but we can shift them around, but go on.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna kind of combine number two and three together.
- 13:29SPEAKER_00: Number two is farm country.
- 13:31SPEAKER_00: Did Washington misread the economic pain?
- 13:34SPEAKER_00: Number three is the farm bill.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: Does the election create a deal?
- 13:37SPEAKER_00: So combine those two.
- 13:38SPEAKER_00: Farm country did Washington miss, and will we have a farm bill?
- 13:42SPEAKER_02: Randy first.
- 13:44SPEAKER_02: I I don't think Washington necessarily uh misread the pain that is economically that is going out in in farm country.
- 13:53SPEAKER_02: I I think though, look, a lot of what is going on, it's a combination of the war with obviously the Russian-Ukraine conflict as well as the Iranian conflict and the implications of that and the residuals of that in terms of impacts on energy prices, et cetera.
- 14:11SPEAKER_02: I think on the tariffs that Sean raised earlier, I think that issue is are we having tariffs just to have tariffs in and of itself, or tariffs to use as leverage to get trade deals and increase market access for U.S.
- 14:28SPEAKER_02: farm products.
- 14:29SPEAKER_02: And I think one of the things that has been uh a shortfall of the administration is is when they have gotten trade deals, really promoting them and explaining exactly what the economic benefits of those deals are to farm countries.
- 14:45SPEAKER_02: And that has been a real shortcoming so far.
- 14:48SPEAKER_02: I think it's really important now, as we get into 2027, for the administration to cut a deal with Canada, to cut a deal with Mexico, and to get USMCA off of this annual review and get two of our largest trading partners uh back on relations that we've had previously.
- 15:06SPEAKER_02: And I think that will happen in 2027, and it needs to happen.
- 15:10SPEAKER_03: What about the farm bill, Randy?
- 15:12SPEAKER_03: Uh yeah, farm bill 2.0.
- 15:14SPEAKER_02: First question, Jim, it comes down to the leaders.
- 15:17SPEAKER_02: And when I say leaders, we're gonna find out we mentioned right out of the chute, Speaker Johnson is not gonna run for minority leader.
- 15:26SPEAKER_02: We'll see who ends up on November 10th being elected the minority leader.
- 15:30SPEAKER_02: And then number two, we're gonna have uh Senate elections on the Republican side that same day.
- 15:35SPEAKER_02: So we'll find out whether Senator Thune will remain the top Republican or not.
- 15:40SPEAKER_02: We'll see what happens there.
- 15:41SPEAKER_02: But once they decide who the four leaders are, I think they're gonna have to get in a room with the president and decide, okay, what are we gonna do in a lame duck session?
- 15:49SPEAKER_02: Are we gonna actually do something, or given the size of this democratic victory, which is bigger than most people anticipated, are they just gonna say, look, we've got the gavel come January?
- 16:00SPEAKER_02: Why should we negotiate now when we don't have the gavel?
- 16:04SPEAKER_02: So assuming they want to clear the decks and clean out some of the things that are left pre-election, I think the Farm Bill is one of those prime uh pieces of legislation that could get done.
- 16:18SPEAKER_02: The key really is the supplemental nutrition assistance program.
- 16:23SPEAKER_02: I don't think there's any doubt now that the Democrats have insisted on a two-year delay in the provision on the error rate, which says states have to pick up more of the cost of the program if they exceed a certain error rate level.
- 16:39SPEAKER_02: The Democrats have insisted on two years, Amy Klobuchar, now the governor-elect of Minnesota, and Angie Craig over on the House side have insisted on that.
- 16:49SPEAKER_02: They will absolutely get that, or there won't be a farm bill.
- 16:52SPEAKER_03: Well, yeah, but Randy, even if they don't get it and they just kick this bill, extend it until next year, then they don't get even the one-year waiver that's in the Senate.
- 17:03SPEAKER_03: So I I I think the Democrats might rethink this thing, saying, you know, let's let's get that one-year waiver so we we're not hit in 2027 and then go after another waiver while while we're while we're in control.
- 17:17SPEAKER_02: I mean, I just think that's a good thing.
- 17:19SPEAKER_02: That may be, but they could have cut that deal before the election.
- 17:23SPEAKER_02: And in fact, there were Democrats on the House Act Committee that voted, seven Democrats did vote for that coming out of committee, and there were Democrats on the floor that voted for it.
- 17:32SPEAKER_03: So I think optics before the election.
- 17:35SPEAKER_03: Optics before the election and after are different.
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: In terms of did they misread?
- 17:40SPEAKER_01: I agree with Randy.
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: I don't know if they misread it, but I think there's a pattern here that both parties need to be paying attention to heading into 28.
- 17:51SPEAKER_01: And and and that is you look at Biden in 24 not being honest and like owning some of the economic challenges.
- 18:01SPEAKER_01: Uh and Trump did the exact same thing in in the lead up to the midterms, in terms of like, uh, fuel prices are just up a little bit.
- 18:09SPEAKER_01: Well, people know they're not up just a little bit, they're up a lot.
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: And I think there's some learning to do from that that the the the American people aren't dumb.
- 18:17SPEAKER_01: Just I I think there needs to be more owning it in terms of like and recognizing, hey, this is a problem and we need to deal with it instead of the really insincere political spinning that's been happening from from from President Biden and President Trump on matters that Americans really care about.
- 18:37SPEAKER_01: I I think that is that we've got two elections in a row where this has been a factor and it's worked against the party that's done it.
- 18:44SPEAKER_03: I think it's a lack of strategy that they never did say how they're going to end the war with Iran.
- 18:50SPEAKER_03: And then farmers knew that because that that keeps on extending the price pressures on urea fertilizer, uh diesel fuel, etc.
- 18:59SPEAKER_03: That's what I kept on hearing.
- 19:00SPEAKER_03: And we still don't know, you know, and so and I think that's a lingering, uh lingering issue, the war, you know, the war with Iran.
- 19:09SPEAKER_03: He's got to make a decision on how to exit that area.
- 19:12SPEAKER_02: When when when you get B this badly, people A, people have to be held accountable, and and B, like Sean just said, there needs to be some ownership of what happened.
- 19:26SPEAKER_02: And I don't think over the last year the Republicans really had an agenda to run on.
- 19:31SPEAKER_02: The first year they got the one big beautiful bill done, and they really extolled the virtues of that, which was really good for agriculture in so many areas, whether it's the farm programs or trade promotion programs or the tax policies.
- 19:46SPEAKER_02: But the but the second year going into this midterm, it was all about affordability negatively for Republicans and the war, and that didn't play in their favor.
- 19:55SPEAKER_02: I will say this you got to look back historically.
- 20:00SPEAKER_02: Ronald Reagan in 1982 lost 29 seats in the House and got re-elected two years later.
- 20:07SPEAKER_02: Bill Clinton in 1994 lost 54 seats in the House and two years later got re-elected.
- 20:15SPEAKER_02: Barack Obama in 2010 lost 63 seats in the House and got re-elected two years later.
- 20:23SPEAKER_02: So I don't think we can read too much.
- 20:26SPEAKER_02: I'm not saying this was not a significant thumping of the Republicans because it was.
- 20:32SPEAKER_02: But we've also seen many times presidents bounce back after midterm losses.
- 20:38SPEAKER_02: The key is how you handle that, how you pivot from it, and you turn around and start cutting some deals for things that matter for most Americans.
- 20:48SPEAKER_02: And that's the thing.
- 20:55SPEAKER_03: Can he pivot?
- 20:57SPEAKER_02: Well, I think that's a that's a big question, Mark Jim.
- 21:00SPEAKER_02: I will say this.
- 21:01SPEAKER_02: It's hard for me to imagine that the president is simply going to sit the next two years in the White House and veto bills.
- 21:09SPEAKER_02: I think at some point he will start cutting deals on issues that he can find common ground on.
- 21:16SPEAKER_02: I could see things like drug pricing as an example.
- 21:19SPEAKER_02: I think that would be an issue that they could work hand in hand with.
- 21:22SPEAKER_02: I one issue very important to agriculture is ag labor, and I can actually see a divided government helping to actually get ag labor done over the next couple of years.
- 21:32SPEAKER_02: So there are some issues like that.
- 21:34SPEAKER_02: Jury's still out, we'll see, but I think he will pivot.
- 21:37SPEAKER_01: What about spending caps?
- 21:38SPEAKER_01: Is that something that they could find bar bipartisan agreement on?
- 21:43SPEAKER_02: Well, Sean, there's a couple of issues coming up.
- 21:45SPEAKER_02: One, we're gonna have to deal with the debt sequence, which is set at$41.1 trillion.
- 21:51SPEAKER_02: We're gonna hit that probably late spring, early summer, taking extraordinary measures that the Treasury Department can do.
- 21:59SPEAKER_02: So that is gonna be an action-causing event that I think you'll see some kind of a grand discussion about what do we do about the budget, what do we do about the deficit?
- 22:09SPEAKER_02: Then what do we do about the debt?
- 22:10SPEAKER_02: So we may have something like that going forward.
- 22:14SPEAKER_02: I would also say whoever the next president is, he or she, whichever party, they're going to have to deal with the reality that the Social Security Trust Fund and the Medicare Hospital Fund, including the home care, are both going to go belly up during their first term.
- 22:31SPEAKER_02: And that is going to be a very difficult thing to have to deal with.
- 22:36SPEAKER_02: And that's what the next president is going to be looking at having to handle.
- 22:39SPEAKER_03: What about funding the war in Iran from the Democrats' perspective?
- 22:43SPEAKER_03: Don't they have some leverage, what, early next year?
- 22:47SPEAKER_02: They might have leverage, but the president has a veto pen, and you're not going to be able to probably override the veto.
- 22:54SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, I'm going to throw another one at you.
- 22:58SPEAKER_00: I do know that Randy did talk about SNAP and food prices.
- 23:02SPEAKER_00: I think you guys hit that indirectly.
- 23:03SPEAKER_00: Number five, trade tariffs, energy, and biofuels.
- 23:07SPEAKER_00: Be interesting to see what y'all have to say about that.
- 23:11SPEAKER_02: Randy?
- 23:11SPEAKER_02: I I sit here continuously amazed at I don't know how many years we have debated year-round E-15, at least a dozen years.
- 23:21SPEAKER_02: And it's stunning to me that we're still sitting here debating whether or not we should if the Congress is going to do year-round E-15.
- 23:30SPEAKER_02: I have said, and I will continue to say this is something that absolutely needs to get done.
- 23:36SPEAKER_02: I think the president ultimately would sign an E-15 bill.
- 23:40SPEAKER_02: I think many times it gets bogged down in the details about the small refinery exemptions, how rents are going to be reallocated, et cetera.
- 23:50SPEAKER_02: Sometimes I wish we just put up a straight year-round E-15 and vote on it up or down and get people on the record as to where they stand.
- 23:58SPEAKER_02: So that's critically important.
- 24:00SPEAKER_02: And meanwhile, our competitors down in Brazil have temporarily increased the level to, I believe it's E-36 or E37.
- 24:10SPEAKER_02: And we're sitting here in the United States for 12 years debating whether or not we should have a year-round E-15.
- 24:15SPEAKER_02: So true.
- 24:16SPEAKER_03: And around the world, there's more than a few countries who are above, well above uh E15.
- 24:22SPEAKER_03: And that's a problem for the future, Randy.
- 24:24SPEAKER_03: Again, I say this in my speeches because it takes about 10 years for our fleet to change over.
- 24:31SPEAKER_03: But the the rise of hybrid vehicles, uh where you really increase your miles per gallon, that cuts right into the renewable fuel standard program because it's based on gas gallons consumed.
- 24:45SPEAKER_03: So that there should be a coordinated effort to raise that E15 actually to E20, E25 to get ahead of this uh problem we're going to see with uh uh less gasoline consumed, at least in countries.
- 25:00SPEAKER_02: And and with more fuel-efficient cars, right?
- 25:03SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
- 25:03unknown: Yeah.
- 25:04SPEAKER_01: Oh, that annoying automatic shutoff at lights.
- 25:07SPEAKER_01: Oh, it drives me crazy.
- 25:09SPEAKER_01: And it with it without higher domestic use, going to E15, it puts a lot of pressure on the need to export more.
- 25:17SPEAKER_01: Uh the secretary was talking about uh Mexico as a you know a new opening market.
- 25:22SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure if Canada could possibly take any more than the 800 million gallons it is every year already is the number one number one customer.
- 25:30SPEAKER_01: I I think on the trade front, and and to Randy's point earlier about Canada and Mexico, I I think one of the the things that the trade Trump trade policy has been is very one-dimensional in terms of all countries are the same are are equal somehow, where the shenanigans that China or India or Europe may be up to are the same things that Canada or Mexico is doing.
- 25:55SPEAKER_01: And those that's a different ballpark because of the geographical adjacency and the connectivity and the the integrated supply chains that exist with not just within the ag sector, but you know, auto sector and and others.
- 26:07SPEAKER_01: And so I I I think there's going to be a potentially an opportunity here for him with how unpopular the the battle is with Canada for the for the president to to pivot, strike a deal, claim victory, and and and you know engage in some of the trade battles that Americans really want to see some change on, and China always is the one that that that comes to mind on that.
- 26:34SPEAKER_01: That that's the pivot I'm kind of watching for from him because I think even in farm countries, I alluded to that barometer study earlier uh in the show here.
- 26:43SPEAKER_01: That that's what his constituency being farmers really want to see.
- 26:48SPEAKER_01: And so we'll see if he's able to listen to that.
- 26:51SPEAKER_03: Increasingly, farmers are more than signaling to me that they feel like they've been pawns in the Trump trade policy in this regard.
- 26:59SPEAKER_03: U.S.
- 26:59SPEAKER_03: trade rep Jamison Greer keeps saying that the Trump trade policy is leverage in order to bring back U.S.
- 27:07SPEAKER_03: manufacturing into this country and investment into this country in steel and aluminum, et cetera.
- 27:13SPEAKER_03: That's their really goal.
- 27:14SPEAKER_03: How are they doing that on the backs of other sectors, is what I'm beginning to uh hear from some of those stakeholders.
- 27:23SPEAKER_02: Jim, I think it's critically important.
- 27:26SPEAKER_02: And to what Sean said and what you just said, you know, I I really do believe that the strategy here all along is to use tariffs as a means to an end to get more effective market access for our products.
- 27:39SPEAKER_02: And that's critically important, particularly given the global environment that we're facing in the increased competition.
- 27:45SPEAKER_02: I don't think the administration has done a good job of communicating the benefits of the trade deals that they have reached.
- 27:52SPEAKER_02: And that's been derelict in their duty.
- 27:55SPEAKER_02: And we have a new, we've got some probably going to have some cabinet changes, I assume, or we're gonna have some other changes that typically happens after a midterm.
- 28:04SPEAKER_02: And I hope that as we get people in, that they will start communicating about these changes.
- 28:09SPEAKER_02: I do think Trump will cut a deal with Canada and Mexico in 2027.
- 28:15SPEAKER_02: I do think that will happen, and I think that'll be good news for agriculture.
- 28:21SPEAKER_03: And true oversight hearings.
- 28:28SPEAKER_03: Republicans didn't have many of them, Randy.
- 28:30SPEAKER_03: And I think in this trade policy area and other aspects, that could be revealing.
- 28:36SPEAKER_03: Example, they should have U.S.
- 28:37SPEAKER_03: trade rep Jamison Greer up there at relative to U.S.
- 28:41SPEAKER_03: China agreement and get the facts out officially saying we understood, we know that China's looks like they're fulfilling the 25 million metric tons of soybeans for this calendar year.
- 28:51SPEAKER_03: But what about this 17 billion dollars of non-soybeans?
- 28:55SPEAKER_03: We don't even know from our own U.S.
- 28:57SPEAKER_03: trade rep what the that what the amount is, the prorated amount is for this calendar year, and it's into November.
- 29:06SPEAKER_03: Why why don't we know that?
- 29:07SPEAKER_03: And they're keeping privately the amount of Chinese purchases that's going to be tagged on that, whatever that prorated amount is.
- 29:17SPEAKER_03: And so none of that is out.
- 29:18SPEAKER_03: And how can you analyze a program when they're keeping it close to the vest?
- 29:23SPEAKER_03: So hopefully the Democrats will have oversight hearings that will get some of this uh you know transparent to the American public.
- 29:30SPEAKER_02: You know, having served in a previous Republican administration, and I know Jim is thinking it was the Lincoln administration, but it was not.
- 29:38SPEAKER_02: It was the Reagan, it was the Reagan administration.
- 29:42SPEAKER_02: And I can remember going up and having to testify in front of the Ag Appropriation Subcommittee.
- 29:48SPEAKER_02: And, you know, Republicans were as hard on administration witnesses as Democrats were, and that's the way it should be.
- 29:57SPEAKER_02: If they disagree with you or they don't like something that you're doing, and somehow that's kind of gotten away from us.
- 30:04SPEAKER_02: And we got to get back to if you don't like the way something's going, don't be afraid to call up witnesses from the government and you know, in an open setting, asking questions and have them explain exactly why they made the decisions they're making.
- 30:21SPEAKER_02: I think that's good government.
- 30:22SPEAKER_02: It leads to better policies and it leads to better decision making within the administration.
- 30:27SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
- 30:28SPEAKER_01: I'll throw a wrinkle on this.
- 30:29SPEAKER_01: Is you know, we're talking about cabinet shuffles and you know people there.
- 30:35SPEAKER_01: Is does Maha have more influence in in this current Congress makeup, or Randy, you're shaking your head.
- 30:45SPEAKER_02: No.
- 30:46SPEAKER_02: I think you know, Cali Means headed to the exit door, you know, the week before the election.
- 30:54SPEAKER_02: And I think if you look at the amount of money that the Maha related groups spent in these Senate races, it's about zero.
- 31:03SPEAKER_02: So I never felt that the Maha movement was some kind of this was some kind of a permanent alignment with Republicans, because I don't think it was.
- 31:14SPEAKER_02: By the way, I'm not taking anything away from their message about leading healthier lifestyles.
- 31:19SPEAKER_02: We have a huge problem in terms of obesity, we have a huge problem in terms of diabetes, we have a huge problem with adult, high blood pressure, all kinds of problems.
- 31:32SPEAKER_02: But there's a lot of reasons for that.
- 31:35SPEAKER_02: One area that we have to look at is food, but we also have to look at the sedentary lifestyle that we have.
- 31:41SPEAKER_02: Are youth today way too dependent on technology and not getting out and exercising?
- 31:46SPEAKER_02: There's a mental health crisis in this country.
- 31:49SPEAKER_02: So there's a lot of reasons that the Maha movement got together, but I do not see that as some kind of a permanent alignment with Republicans.
- 31:59SPEAKER_02: I wouldn't be surprised at all if you saw many of them, whoever the Democratic nominee, potentially go support the Democratic nominee in uh in 2028.
- 32:12SPEAKER_00: Very good, guys.
- 32:14SPEAKER_00: Real quick, I think you touched on a lot of it, but new power centers committees, Jim mentioned oversight.
- 32:20SPEAKER_00: Um and then we're gonna have a really powerful closing round here.
- 32:24SPEAKER_03: Well, Randy, you know the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance is are your two, one of your most popular, uh important, important panels, right?
- 32:33SPEAKER_02: And big changes, Jim, on the Ways and Means Committee and some on finance.
- 32:39SPEAKER_02: You know, on the agriculture committees, we obviously with Senator Klobuchar now being governor-elect.
- 32:46SPEAKER_02: We're most likely looking at Senator Bennett from Colorado taking over.
- 32:52SPEAKER_02: There's some question about whether Sherrod Brown would have seniority, and we'll have to see whether, even if he did, whether he'd take that versus the banking committee.
- 33:01SPEAKER_02: Over on the House side, GT Thompson may seek a waiver.
- 33:06SPEAKER_02: But given what happened last night, I don't know if the leadership is going to grant any waivers.
- 33:11SPEAKER_02: GT's done a tremendous job as chairman, terrific job.
- 33:14SPEAKER_02: I just don't know if they'll grant any waivers to Austin Scott would be next in line.
- 33:18SPEAKER_02: There's some talk that he might get challenged.
- 33:21SPEAKER_02: And so there's and then we've got on the Democratic side, Chantel Brown potentially in line to take over from Ohio as chair of the House Agriculture Committee.
- 33:31SPEAKER_02: Big change, I think, if you look at the committee that has oversight for the Food and Drug Administration on the Senate side, it's the Senate Health Committee, Health and Education and Labor.
- 33:44SPEAKER_02: And the chair of that committee will be none other than Bernie Sanders.
- 33:50SPEAKER_02: And that'll be very interesting to see some of his uh views towards uh food.
- 33:55SPEAKER_02: And and the ranking member looks like it's either gonna be Rand Paul from Kentucky or Josh Holly from Missouri.
- 34:03SPEAKER_02: So we've got a lot of changes going on, and committee appropriations gonna be committee's gonna change with Susan Collins, the ranking uh excuse, the current chair would have been the ranking member, but having gotten beat, so lots and lots of changes.
- 34:17SPEAKER_02: I think we're gonna see somewhere in the neighborhood of about 140 new members of the House and Senate out of 535.
- 34:25SPEAKER_02: So it's gonna be a major job for people like in my business to go up and educate people about the importance of agriculture and some of the key issues.
- 34:33SPEAKER_03: It's also I think that's an opportunity, isn't it?
- 34:37SPEAKER_02: I was just getting ready to say it's a great opportunity, too.
- 34:41SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, I know Randy's got to get out of here in six, seven minutes, but in true Jim style, and only Jim could do this, he left me three closing round questions, but there's actually four questions.
- 34:51SPEAKER_00: I can't make this stuff up, Jim.
- 34:54SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 34:55SPEAKER_00: If I ask you a question, do you think you each want to talk about it?
- 34:58SPEAKER_00: How do you want to handle this?
- 34:59SPEAKER_03: Yeah, just start it.
- 35:00SPEAKER_00: Go for it.
- 35:01SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
- 35:01SPEAKER_00: Closing round.
- 35:02SPEAKER_00: Uh, I don't have a bell or a timer, but I know who's getting gonged out.
- 35:05SPEAKER_00: If you hear the music that means your time's up, all right.
- 35:09SPEAKER_00: We'll start with Randy here.
- 35:10SPEAKER_00: What is the most consequence consequential action agriculture in the food sector should expect in the next hundred days?
- 35:19SPEAKER_02: That if the Congress ultimately decides to have a substantive lame duck session, that they pass a farm bill.
- 35:27SPEAKER_02: Because I think if they pass a farm bill, there could be attached to it some additional farm assistance.
- 35:33SPEAKER_02: And they may even try to tackle E15.
- 35:36SPEAKER_02: So I that would be my answer.
- 35:39SPEAKER_00: Sean.
- 35:40SPEAKER_01: I I think on the trade front, I I don't know as much, Randy, as the technicalities of that, but based on the result yesterday, I wonder if the Democrats push hard on some of the the trade actions that the president has taken.
- 35:54SPEAKER_01: And and if that if the there's a pivot there, which would be a huge benefit to agriculture.
- 36:00SPEAKER_03: Two two things quickly: the end of the US-Iran war because all the appendages from that, uh the costs start going down, not right away, but consistently.
- 36:10SPEAKER_03: And two, agree with totally with Randy on the lame duck session and the attractiveness of grouping some of these things together: farmer and ag disaster aid, E15, and Farm Bill 2.0, which I think will have happen.
- 36:24SPEAKER_00: Uh Randy, I'll toss it back to you.
- 36:26SPEAKER_00: What is one widely held post-election assumption you think will prove wrong?
- 36:34SPEAKER_02: There's always a tendency to put too much value on one election.
- 36:44SPEAKER_02: And I think this was a huge night for Democrats.
- 36:48SPEAKER_02: I absolutely was.
- 36:50SPEAKER_02: But as I've cited before, history would show that that this can be changed two years later.
- 36:59SPEAKER_02: We I pointed it out with Reagan, I pointed it out with Clinton, I pointed it out with Obama.
- 37:04SPEAKER_02: There's all kinds of examples historically where two years later a president, in this case Trump, can't run for re-election, but we're Republicans to get re-elected back into the office.
- 37:16SPEAKER_02: Having said that, the task has gotten a lot more difficult given the fact that they the seven state battleground states all have democratic governors.
- 37:29SPEAKER_02: And also, I think the fact that the Republicans are gonna have to come up now with a prospective offensive agenda that appeals to the average American.
- 37:40SPEAKER_01: Mr.
- 37:41SPEAKER_01: Haney?
- 37:42SPEAKER_01: Something that has changed my opinion is I wasn't sure if SEC states would vote Democrat in in my career, the rest of my career.
- 37:53SPEAKER_01: South Carolina, Texas, I that just blows me away.
- 37:57SPEAKER_01: And it it's again further proof that you know we can't take the the the way that people have voted in the past for for granted.
- 38:08SPEAKER_01: And I I think that you know the the North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas examples are are something that we need to uh, you know, if if I was on the remote Republican side, learn from.
- 38:19SPEAKER_01: And what are we gonna do about it?
- 38:22unknown: Mr.
- 38:22SPEAKER_03: Jim.
- 38:23SPEAKER_03: I think the coalition groups are gonna be important because the Democrats think that they've got them back in a big way, but they may lose them again.
- 38:30SPEAKER_03: Republicans won 9% of the black voters this time, that's below Trump's 2024 share of 13, 35 of Hispanic voters, and that's down from 46% in Trump's 2024 share.
- 38:45SPEAKER_03: And 51% of white voters, that's down from 57% for Trump in 2024.
- 38:52SPEAKER_03: The goal for Republicans should be how to how to regain uh those percentages, and that they gotta have a plan to do so.
- 39:00SPEAKER_00: Very good.
- 39:01SPEAKER_00: Randy, I'm gonna go back to you real quick on a new question, fresh question here.
- 39:05SPEAKER_00: What measurable results should we use six months from now to judge whether Washington responded to voters?
- 39:14SPEAKER_02: Two things, Tommy.
- 39:15SPEAKER_02: One, are we still talking about a war with Iran?
- 39:19SPEAKER_02: Or a conflict with Iran?
- 39:21SPEAKER_02: And I think, second of all, will the leadership in the White House and Republic the Republican leadership roll up their sleeves and work with Democrats and find some common ground on some key issues?
- 39:35SPEAKER_02: And I think an action-causing event, frankly, is going to be the debt ceiling, like I said, that comes up later this spring.
- 39:44SPEAKER_02: And that that could set the stage for a very contentious debate or possibly getting some major legislation agreed to.
- 39:52SPEAKER_02: So if you if I had to look at one piece of legislation or one event that Congress has to deal with and the administration, it's a debt ceiling, and that could go either way.
- 40:02SPEAKER_02: So I keep your eyes on that.
- 40:06SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's into the Iran War.
- 40:09SPEAKER_01: You know, that that is the key to the affordability concern.
- 40:13SPEAKER_01: Highly unpopular.
- 40:14SPEAKER_01: The administration has not done a good job convincing Americans that this is a this is about, you know, the Iran nuclear program.
- 40:22SPEAKER_01: We've kind of moved all over the lane in terms of what the the end objective is.
- 40:27SPEAKER_01: I think it's it's really all about the end of that Iran war.
- 40:31SPEAKER_03: Yeah, the end of the Iran war, our seeming end to it, will allow Trump to focus on the things he's good at and more into the vein of Trump 1.0.
- 40:42SPEAKER_03: And I agree with Randy on the debt limit, and the thing to watch there is the bond market.
- 40:48SPEAKER_03: If they think that we're getting out of kilter, uh watch your bond uh markets because that'll that'll get uh Washington's attention, both at the White House, Treasury Department, Scott Besson, and the uh uh you know key lawmakers.
- 41:01SPEAKER_03: So I think that they've got an editor, if you will, called the bond market.
- 41:06SPEAKER_03: So I think that's gonna be major next year.
- 41:08SPEAKER_00: Bond market rules the world.
- 41:10SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Randy.
- 41:11SPEAKER_00: This last question, but in true gym style, there's three questions and one question in this one.
- 41:16SPEAKER_00: He just he's something else.
- 41:17SPEAKER_00: Give us one likely part bipartisan deal and one likely stalemate, and one development that could change your outlook, sir.
- 41:33SPEAKER_02: I would say one area where I could see right out of the bat, and I mentioned it earlier, that is really important to agriculture is ag labor.
- 41:43SPEAKER_02: God knows you talk to people in the specialty crop industry or the dairy business and many others, the access to a reliable year-round supply of labor is critically important.
- 41:58SPEAKER_02: It's part of the reason, you know, I talk all the time about produce, and the question is whether it's going to get picked in the United States or south of the border.
- 42:06SPEAKER_02: And one of the big reasons it may get picked south of the border is uh the lack of access to reliable labor.
- 42:12SPEAKER_02: So I do think a divided government could very well lead to a agreement on ag labor.
- 42:22SPEAKER_02: I forgot.
- 42:23SPEAKER_02: What was the second question you asked?
- 42:25SPEAKER_00: I I it's a stalemate.
- 42:27SPEAKER_00: What what what's a likely something in your head that you're like this is just gonna be a stalemate?
- 42:32SPEAKER_02: Well, like I said, I think the funding of the government, I mean, you know, Trump could take a very hard-line view on that.
- 42:39SPEAKER_02: And you know, if we have December 11th is when the government has there has to be some agreement to keep the government open.
- 42:46SPEAKER_02: I don't think we're gonna end up in some kind of a shutdown situation, but that is certainly something one has to keep their eye on.
- 42:52unknown: Mr.
- 42:53SPEAKER_00: Haney, I talk it back to you.
- 42:54SPEAKER_00: And we'll just do uh likely bar bipartisan deal and likely stalemate, sir.
- 42:59SPEAKER_01: Yeah, not sure how the likeliness is, but I think you know the president needs to get back to things that Americans care about, not rebuilding DC golf courses and uh the decorating of all room, but get back to things that actually matter to Americans.
- 43:13SPEAKER_01: Looking at healthcare would be a great bipartisan, you know, we talked about lowering of drug costs, and the president's been big on that and has had some impact on that.
- 43:22SPEAKER_01: I think healthcare costs, especially in rural areas, is a major concern.
- 43:26SPEAKER_01: It's something you know Trump's talked about his solution for a while.
- 43:29SPEAKER_01: We're still waiting for it.
- 43:30SPEAKER_01: Maybe the next six months we we get to see it.
- 43:32SPEAKER_01: And the Democrats uh agree we'll see their stalemate.
- 43:36SPEAKER_01: I'm always out on immigration reform.
- 43:39SPEAKER_01: I just it just feels like one that both parties fundraise way too much on.
- 43:45SPEAKER_01: And it is, I I I just I I would be shocked if that happens, but I really hope I'm wrong.
- 43:52SPEAKER_00: Mr.
- 43:52SPEAKER_00: Weiskmeier, one minute and show.
- 43:54SPEAKER_03: Child care tax credits, because the Democrats love them and Trump should.
- 44:00SPEAKER_03: And there's a an agreement to be made that you get something to get something, and I think that's what the American public tell me all the time.
- 44:08SPEAKER_03: They they need more child uh care tax credits.
- 44:11SPEAKER_03: So I think that's a doable.
- 44:12SPEAKER_03: And Randy's thing on the farm labor, wherever I go, that's it's a that's a topic of discussion.
- 44:18SPEAKER_03: Stalemate, Jim?
- 44:20SPEAKER_03: Stalemate is the funding mechanism.
- 44:22SPEAKER_03: Again, I agree with Randy on that because there's your lines.
- 44:25SPEAKER_03: The Democrats will say, Look, we we've got a mandate, you can just hear them, and the conservatives within the White House will say, No way, and they're really conservative in the budget office over there.
- 44:36SPEAKER_03: So I think there's there's grounds of uh stalemate.
- 44:39SPEAKER_03: I'm not predicting a shutdown of the government, but it's not going to be easy.
- 44:43SPEAKER_02: Tommy, I want to just let it be noted that this is the three times in this program here.
- 44:48SPEAKER_02: Uh Jim has agreed with me, which is which in the 45 years I've known him, I don't think we've agreed on this much ever.
- 44:56SPEAKER_02: Ever.
- 44:57SPEAKER_02: It would take a democracy, it took a democratic sweep to line an item three times in the last 45 minutes.
- 45:05SPEAKER_00: We'll make the we'll make a short clip of it, it'll go viral.
- 45:08SPEAKER_00: Gentlemen, thank you, Randy Russell, uh the Russell group, Sean Haney, Real Agriculture, Jim Weissmeyer from Weissmeyer.ed, my new partner at Ag Bull Media.
- 45:18SPEAKER_00: My name is Tommy Gustaffy.
- 45:20SPEAKER_00: I am bullish agriculture.
- 45:23SPEAKER_00: You just got to watch three of the best in the whole industry.
- 45:25SPEAKER_00: Thank you.