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Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to BUY… + Stock Market News 06 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question Would it be helpful for you if you knew what JP Morgan's most reliable indicator is and that it just flashed?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Would that be helpful to you?
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: As I make myself a little smaller here, I want to walk you through that.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I also want to give you JP Morgan's actual sector buy list.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: They go through every sector and they tell you whether people are buying it or not, momentum wise, from their live trading desk.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And then I'm gonna give you two stocks that I love right now Sweet love.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: One stock that I don't love yet but that we need to watch Actually, no, I don't love that stock yet and then I give you a bonus stock to watch which I think could really blow up yet.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And then I give you a bonus stock to watch which I think could really blow up.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: And then I'll share with you my tesla tray today for the markets open, but then I'll actually put it through here and, um, let me know if that's helpful.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Would that be helpful?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Do you want to hear, do you want to see it?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And put a, put a, put a yes or something like that in the chat, right?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Yes, and in the chat.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: So I know you're alive and awake and not a bot, so shall we get into it?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it here, right?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: This is jp morgan's emma ru.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I don't have not met jemma emma ru, but I'm sure she's delightful.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: She says we find the market generally outperforms following extreme retail buying lots of yeses there, brilliant, you guys are awake, good morning.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And it underperforms after extreme retail selling in the short term, and the indicator became particularly evident since 2020, since retail is you know um doesn't make me a communist, probably right and it's even more pronounced since 2023 and it's especially strong within two weeks.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So if retail had gone absolutely nuts and just bought the most amount of stocks ever, just, we would expect the market to rally for the next two weeks.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: That's what emma is saying.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Dear, delightful emma.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Now you want to see the data.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: You want to see the data.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: You want to see the data, yeah, okay, I'm not going to make you suffer through this.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: This is retail sentiment and the retail buying is basically the same chart.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to give you two charts, but we're here.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We need a brighter color pen there, don't we?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: We're there, okay, that if you were to draw a straight line, would be the highest level in four years.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to get political here, don't worry.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I know the four years is tempting, but no, this is not a political channel, at least not yet.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: So interesting, right?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So retail has just bought the dip more than ever, and I didn't put the chart in because it basically looks exactly like this.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It's gone absolutely through the moon and, according to JP Morgan, you should therefore be having two beautiful, glorious weeks ahead, which might well be true.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Now you can also see just how much money is in there.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Retail household, us households now 30% of all total assets are now owned by are now in stocks, and that's the highest.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: It's higher than 2000.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So it's really, really up there Now.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Does that mean it's a bubble and all of that?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I think retail has just realized.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We have realized the best place to put our money is basically stocks, because it's easy, it's more profitable than most other things out there and you know it's just very, very easy.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Real estate can be good if you've got high, cheap debt.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's going to be a good place.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Not tired of winning yet?
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: No, no, not at all.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Um, things are looking pretty good today, so that looks pretty sweet, right?
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So the question then is, of course, well, what do we buy, given that we're gonna have two very, very good weeks?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: What do we buy?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna help you out on that in two forms.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: One, I'm gonna give you jp morgan's shopping list and, second of all, I'm running a live, live masterclass this Saturday morning, new York time, 9am, for all you people who have jobs.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So, yes, you have to get out of bed by 9am, but you can be in your PJs and I will not just teach you how we find breakouts, how we exit at the right moment, but I'll also give you something I've been thinking about for a little while.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: There's a little bonus here.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you my VIX cheat sheet.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: You don't know what VIX cheat sheet is.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: It's the fear index that allows us to make money when the market goes up and that allows us to make money when the market goes down.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Basically, it allows us to make money pretty much all the time, and it's a very, very lazy, exceptionally low risk way of making money, and very few people understand it, and I think more people deserve to understand it.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So I will.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Towards the end of that masterclass, I'll run an extra section on this.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I will give you a downloadable cheat sheet, which I've been working on for a couple of days and that to you.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Just give it to you.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: It doesn't cost you anything, it's just there for the taking if you want it.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: What are you going to do?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: You're going to sign up at felix friends at org slash webinar.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a free seat and actually show up, of course, otherwise you won't get the download.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Um, should we be worried about non-farm payrolls?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: There's unemployment data out today and it's boring.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So, no, I don't think we should be too worried about the non-farm payrolls.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: There's unemployment data out today and it's boring.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: So no, I don't think we should be too worried about the non-farm payroll.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: This here is JP Morgan's cheat sheet, and you're very welcome to take screenshots of this.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: There was a second half to this, but I think probably the thing that is most interesting to most of you is technology right, and what they're basically saying is semiconductor sector is getting a bit wobbly.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Their momentum there, the sentiment isn't very good.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Even software is getting hit a little hard there.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: We've seen that with microsoft.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: But there are some things that they do like internet stocks and payment stocks, which is kind of interesting.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Right, and I'll come back to the semi story in a second, because there's one stock I want us to look at.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Um, they're basically saying, yeah, the whole deep sea thing is kind of like shaking people a little bit, um, but there are still.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: There's still some good stuff out there, especially in payment and in internet stocks.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's important.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Um banks still performing very, very nicely.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I agree with that.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Um, biopharma and and do we have a stock on that?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Today?
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: No, but we're working on one.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I'll put another video, I think tomorrow, on one that I think is a real gem there.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: On the pharma front, we're still digging through tons of data and trying to make sense of it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Gaming, well, yeah, in theory, that does well.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Industrials, machinery utilities, regulated utilities, so you're kind of energy companies should do quite well, and energy majors here, um, services, refiners and so on, and I agree with that.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I think that whole sector is yet to to flow and rally and I think we could make a lot of money there for that.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Cyber security sector is working.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And where do you fit that?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Is that software or is that internet.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: To me it's probably a little bit more internet, but it's in that space and I think you're right.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's going to keep flying, in my humble opinion.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So does that make some sense to you?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Does it make some sense?
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Does it make some sense to you?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So I know that this makes some sense to you and it's somewhat helpful.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Brian, you want to find the breakouts before they happen.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You can find them at the beginning.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: That's kind of the point.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: You've got to get used to that.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: You're never going to buy the bottom of the market.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: You're never going to sell the top of the market.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: But if you are near the bottom when you buy it and you sell near the top, then things are very, very good.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Right, okay, brilliant.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks for all the ones.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you being lucid today.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a really interesting piece of information, and usually that precedes something really really dull, doesn't it?
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: I have children.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: This is very, very interesting.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: You must pay attention, but this is genuinely very, very useful.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Who's Rene Haas?
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Rene Haas is the CEO of Arm.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: You know who Arm is?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: The guys who make chips for your phones and so on.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: They're basically a chip designer, so they don't make them, but they make a little license fee on every chip sold out there.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And what he says is that Stargate remember Elon's sorry, sorry, trump's stargate project morphing into one person, aren't they?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: And he's saying look, it's a very, very big infrastructure project 100 billion will be invested immediately and it's a partnership with open ai and oracle and softbank.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: And for arm, we're extremely excited to be the CPU of choice for such a platform.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Combined with Blackwell CPU, with Grace, arm will be the CPU of choice for the initial configuration Incredibly exciting.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: It's a significant opportunity and a very significant in terms of their impact for the industry and a significant opportunity for our company.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of interesting for Arm, right.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So I think Arm is probably one we should be watching and I I had a chart open here for arm, which is this and did we have a breakout?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we had a breakout here.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So let me, let me highlight what I'm talking about here.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: You guys, you understand talking about this was the first breakout.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Breakouts tend to come down again.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: This one came down too low, so we would have actually probably gotten out of that, but then it's giving us a second shot up here again on pretty decent volume, still above the recent highs and um, the story there is pretty good.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Now today it's trading at the lower end of that range, so we have to kind of see whether that story holds up, but I think there is something there and it's also massively outperforming the semiconductor index.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: So Arm is trying to fly, which I think is an interesting one to look at, not loving that this didn't go higher than that, but let's give this one another day and I'll definitely be watching this one.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I'll definitely add to my watch list.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Now, this is another quote here, and today is a day of meaningful, insightful, incredibly important quotes, because understanding these really, really helps.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Sweden said I took my first Tesla options trade yesterday.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I'm down $500.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I'm pissed.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: What's your options trade, my friend Sweden Sauer, most of the time the trades we set up, they are down on day one.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: But it depends very much on what you set up there, obviously.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: But if you expect to make money on day one, if you expect to make money on day one, it kind of wouldn't be trading.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: It's not really a realistic outcome.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: It's very, very rare that we make money on day one of setting up a trade.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: We need to have a little bit of a longer time horizon there.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, this one here.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: This is Uber's CEO.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: He says autonomous alone in the alone in the US, can be a trillion-dollar market, which is exactly what Elon's saying.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: The tech is getting there.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: He says Dara and I shall not try to pronounce that surname, because Oswald Gahy Where's that?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: From?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Some sort of Sri Lankan or something.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So does that mean we're going to buy Uber?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: No, although there is some reason you might say for that here.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting one.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: It's trading at 20 times free cash flow.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: High growth, high growth, high margins, lots of free cash flow.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: It looks pretty good, but I don't think they're the right play.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I think they'll do very well, but I think it leads to one simple conclusion, which is well, who's the leader in autonomous driving?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Well, it's Tesla.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So why not just own Tesla?
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Why own the sort of derivative?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: The customer of Tesla, which to me, doesn't make a huge amount of sense?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: He comes from Iran.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Ok, I was very far off.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: In that case, sweden's out.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: You've got a friend who's making a bit of money recently and then he is losing the most.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the trouble is that most people think they're a brilliant investor or trader, but most of the time they just got lucky.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: The question really is what is your friend's strategy?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: What is his rule book and where did you learn it?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: That's really the question.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: If you learned it in some sort of reddit forum, I would wager that there is a pretty high risk that it works only when the market goes up in a straight line.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Um, but yeah, come and join me on saturday.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I'll show you exactly what I do and then maybe you can learn a lot from that.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So, bernie, bernie, how about you short Tesla and I'm long Tesla, and we meet again in two years and we see who's better off and then we know who is right.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: That's really the only way to do that.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: So I will actually set up a Tesla trade in a moment, which is a cautiously optimistic trade, and I'll explain that in a second as well for you options goons out there.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: But before we do that, make sure you signed up for saturday's extraganza.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: We'll probably do about a two hour live stock investing masterclass.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Live, I will also teach you how we keep making money out of vix trades in a very, very, very low risk way.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a cheat sheet you can download and everything else.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: You walk away with that.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.