Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum Surges Ahead of Fed Meeting🚨

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Ethereum Surges Ahead of Fed Meeting🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, let's break down the pre FOMC surge. It is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: going to be a big week. You don't want to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: miss it. Let's just jump right in. I want to
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• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Let's start off with the Federal Reserve meeting that will
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: be hosted tomorrow. Actually they're having it today as well,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: but tomorrow, Chair Palell, we'll do the live press conference,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: and that is what we do live here on this show.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So what I'm gonna say is subscribe right now as
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  Speaker 1: you were watching this video, and then hit that little bell.
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  Speaker 1: It's going to give you a notification tomorrow. Hopefully if
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  Speaker 1: you two is working right, it's going to give you
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: a notification when we go live. That way you get said, hey,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: stop everything, stop the presses. I'm going to see what
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: is happening with chair Palell and whether or not we
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: get the quarter basis point cut overall. Right now, it's
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: looking pretty solid, but Bitcoin of course is officially turning
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: positive on the year now up one point two percent.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I know, that's a lot of craziness. What do you
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: mean this is a big deal. No, but it does
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: mean that maybe the market is surging prior to what's
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: going to go on within the FMC meeting. When you
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: look at it right now, we have climbed another one
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: hundred bill three point two trillion on the market cap,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: and the fear and greed is starting to flutter a
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: little bit, which is now up to twenty five, which
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: was twenty one I think day before yesterday, and we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: were under just under three point two. You can kind
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: of see the little bit of movement right there. Of course,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin holding at ninety three almost ninety four k as
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: we record, and of course eth starting to fly again
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: almost to thirty four hundred. So let me know if
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: you guys are dollar cost averaging right now or have
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: you been on a continuous hotel for a lot of
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: these assets and are looking maybe for an early exit.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Let me know how you're playing the charts here. Let
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: me go over to a quick clip because this is
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: President Trump talking about the economy.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Take a look pretty good, But I do want to
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: talk about the economy, sir here at home, and I
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: wonder what grade you would.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: Give A plus A plus A plus plus plus plus plus.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, all right.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So he's got a high anticipation that the economy has
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: been very good. However, consumer sentiment conditions are not as great.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: And this, of course is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: pretty much looks at the US sentiment in terms of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: how everyday consumers think the economy is. Most of this
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: is being self inflicted, obviously with tariffs and what we're
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: seeing in terms of surging prices. Even though we have
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: seen the cost of energy come down low gas prices,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: things of that nature. But we are seeing a gradual
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: effect that is starting to impact the market. Now the
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: question is is this the time we start to see
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: a reversal and the market came with it, so you
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: can kind of see how that chart is coming. However,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: right now we are on a little bit of a
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: death march on the economy sentiment for sure. President Trump
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: also says immediate rate cuts will be a requirement for
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: the next FED chair. We're going to see most likely
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the quarter. It's very possible, Minnie Aalys are pointing to
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: January and even into March for new rate cuts, and
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: of course right after that you're going to possibly see
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Kevin Hassett jump into the seat. And when that occurs,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: it's possible you could see something pretty crazy. I want
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip here because this will get
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: into one of the things that will give the Fed
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit of fuel, and that is how is
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the labor market responding? Take a look.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: One of the things you said not too long and
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: Go was that the labor market may have already bottomed
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: and at any economics slowdown, you saw as kind of
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: a rolling sector one to the next slowdown, and that
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: could be in the past too.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: That's right.
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  Speaker 6: So, I mean our call for quite a while has
• 4:16
  Speaker 6: been we've been in a sort of rolling recession that
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: the private economy has been distorted from post COVID, with
• 4:22
  Speaker 6: every sector kind of going through their own individual recessions.
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: So instead of having the one kind of one collapse
• 4:28
  Speaker 6: as you typically get, it's been this sort of masked
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: labor cycle. And what we noticed in April we can
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: go back and look at the data now, is that
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: the rate of change on both payrolls and layoffs peaked
• 4:39
  Speaker 6: or bottom, depending on which we are looking at in April.
• 4:42
  Speaker 6: And that is very important for next year because a
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  Speaker 6: it means the FED has more room to cut than
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: probably people think, okay, or they can do things with
• 4:48
  Speaker 6: the balel sheet. And secondly, you're going to get a
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  Speaker 6: rotation now into the parts of the market that have
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: not performed that well. That's our call for twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 4: Why would the labor market not being weak the FED
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: more opportunity.
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  Speaker 6: Well, because they're going to realize that their the data
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  Speaker 6: itself is very lagged. I'm not blaming the FED.
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  Speaker 1: This is tricky.
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  Speaker 6: I mean it's hard in real time. The data has
• 5:09
  Speaker 6: not been weak enough to justify cutting more. But when
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: they actually look at the revisions now, and that's what
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: we do. We look at the revisions, it pretty much clear.
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: It's very clear that we had a significant labor s
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: already came out of it and we've come out of.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: It all right.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That was a good clip because he hit on something
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: that I actually believe has been happening, and that is
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: kind of this rotation of various industries. One of the
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: biggest industries that has been taking out on the chin
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: out there, which takes up a lot of the job market,
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  Speaker 1: is the restaurant industry, and they have been in a
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: downward spiral on jobs for quite some time. And maybe
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now is this right here, where
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: we are at the end of where this job loss
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: and versus job creation has ended. Maybe we're there right now.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: It is possible. And if that is the case, back
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: to that clip, what he's getting at is been in
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: this kind of this rolling recession. So it would give
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: the Fed the impetus to move forward to possibly a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: burgeoning economy, meaning another potential bull cycle, even though we
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: haven't necessarily seen a pullback on the S and P
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: five hundred. So there are a lot of things working
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: right now within the market, for sure. Now Rick Reader
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: came in and said kind of the same thing, in
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: the sense that the Fed does have more room to cut.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: He explains it in a different way, though. Take a look.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: I think you got to put down that they're going
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  Speaker 3: to cut twenty five.
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  Speaker 5: But you think it should be definitive.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think it should be definitive. I think
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: it should be definitive. They go this month, they go
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: next month. Listen, I still think we have room to go.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: I think once you get to a three.
• 6:43
  Speaker 7: Percent funds rate, then you stop and interpret where is
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  Speaker 7: the data? But I think now, given the deceleration you're
• 6:49
  Speaker 7: seeing in labor and a bit elevated inflation, but it's
• 6:53
  Speaker 7: not really impacted by this interest rate, that I think
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  Speaker 7: you can get to three percent without any question whatsoever.
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  Speaker 7: I think this committee will go in a more deliberate fashion.
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  Speaker 7: But yes, I would go to get to three percent.
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  Speaker 5: Do you think you can get an accurate representation of
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  Speaker 5: where we are? Can you even take the outlook at
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  Speaker 5: face value given the lack of data that's going to
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: go into it.
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  Speaker 4: I do.
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  Speaker 3: I mean so, by the way, I've heard the argument,
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: could you put it off for a week because you
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: get a bunch of data between now and then that
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: you know, it could have been a reasonable idea to
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: do that. That being said, you know, for what I
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  Speaker 3: just said, I think the idea that you're going to
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  Speaker 3: go twenty five, there's enough data that we've gotten in
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  Speaker 3: terms of what's happening to the job market that suggests
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: that you can go without any real question that you're
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: going to be wrong in that interpretation.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, So what he's getting at there. First of all,
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  Speaker 1: the main statement is getting down to three percent, which
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  Speaker 1: is a significant move for the Fed over the next
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: several months unless they were to do something that would
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: double up on these cuts. But you look at where
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: FED funds were has been historically when the FED cuts
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: interest rates within two percent of stock market all time
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: highs was where we are. The S and P five
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: hundred has gone into finish higher over the next twelve
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: This is twenty out of twenty, so it's one hundred
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: percent hit rate. That's kind of the model that we
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: are moving into. So it goes back to what I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: was saying. Further is that even though we have been
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  Speaker 1: in a maybe a rolling recession through some of these sectors.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: The interesting point, I think crypto has been one of
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: those sectors, so it's very possible we could see a
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  Speaker 1: surge coming into crypto off of where this market is
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: leaning into right now. The expectations though for the FED
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: is still very strong. It's ironic to go back and
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: look at what all these banks we're talking about just
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: sixty days ago. But right now Morgan Stanley is expecting
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a December, January, and April. So kind of in alignment
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: with black Rock is that trying to reach that three
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: percent to the three and a quarter percent. There are
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: still some signal to risk management and most of those
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: cuts are done, but I think the issue year is
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: that the acceleration of cuts could be very quick. Now,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: how does the crypto market play into this is the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: real question, because you have a lot of people that
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: have been looking at QE being the driving force of this.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Now many people say, well, there's been kind of this
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: facade of QE. These though, have been basically reverse reserve
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: management purchases. They're not QE. They aim to keep money
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: markets functioning, so basically it's like maintenance for liquidity, and
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I think this is still yet to come. Q has
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: not started, even though it just ended on what December first,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So the real question is when does that window happen?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: When does that window happen, because that will start to
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: indicate risk markets are on a move. And here's the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: thing to watch. Forty four point three percent of individual
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: investors expressed a bullish stock market outlook over the next
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: six months, latest obviously came on this Triple A survey
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: and the highest since October eighth. So I want to
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: show you something here, guys. This is the kind of
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: surge that we have been seeing, not necessarily in alignment
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: with where we have been, which has mostly been very
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: bearish on investors in general. So that's a big deviation.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Now does it hold is the question? Does it hold
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: back into the high that we saw back in December
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: of last year, That's the question everybody's asking. Further into this,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: you got other moves that are happening on the bigger
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: structure of things, and that is more banks. Here's Brian
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Armstrong talking about saying, hey, there's more banks jumping into crypto. However,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: don't jump to any conclusion. You're not gonna be able
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to go to p and C and get this right now,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Unless you are a private client, basically an accredited investor,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: this is not really offering crypto yet when they offer
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: this in every account and P ANDC. I know you
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: listen to our podcast because I've talked to you guys
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: before about this very issue is that when you offer
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: this in every account, that's when you are a crypto bank.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Right now, you're not. You're basically trying to make sure
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: that you don't get a flight of capital from people
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: moving out of your bank because you don't offer crypto,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: and many of these other banks are starting to move
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: into that. Now you've got Michael Saylor saying, well, wait
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: a minute, we've got a bunch of US banks now
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: issuing credit against bitcoin. I haven't seen this yet, and
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: granted this may be speculation that it's coming, but I
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: have not seen any indication that you'd be able to
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: hold bitcoin and use it as a credit instrument in
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: any of these facilities. Now, Charles Swab will see I'm
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: going to ping them specifically on this Bank of America.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I will check with and JP Morgan directly to find
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: out if this is the case or if it's coming
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: down the pipeline I just don't know if you look
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: at the likelihood of what's happening around the market. This course,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Hayden Adams from uniswap over there. He's going after Ken
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Griffin basically saying, hey, you remember Constitution DOWT. Yeah you do.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Now he's coming for DeFi asking the SEC to treat
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: software developers of decentralized protocols like centralized intermediaries. This is
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: what we've been talking about, and it is a concern
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: because this of course puts a huge stickler in the
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Market Structure Bill coming forward in DC right now. And
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: according to Bernie Moreno, one of the congressmen out there,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: is that it is looking very bad that we may
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: not even get a markup this year. And we only
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: have maybe another ten days now moving into this so
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: probably no markup. And remember you have two major things
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: happening in January, defense spending bill and also another government
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: shut down potentially into January, so it's possible you could
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: see the Market Structure Bill get pushed into February or
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: March if you get that far out. I am very
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: concerned with that being because it does start to push
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: into midterms, and once midterms start, you know, how it is, guys,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: they just won't be thinking about anything else except getting
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: re elected. That's the issue going forward. However, you look
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: at the market right now, everybody's been fudding master micro strategy.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: Bit y.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: See how I just obliterated the mass for selling fud.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: He basically says, so listen, I'm holding through and it's
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the case that we see there's no reason that we're
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: going to see this kind of move and his statement
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: here for micro strategy to be forced sell bitcoin or BDC,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: it would need to drop ninety percent. If that haven't. Obviously,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: everybody's got a bigger problem than micro strategy, which is
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: something you have to pay attention to. There was a
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: clip out there that andre Jick had done around this
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: topic and the concern that he brought forth around micro strategy.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Let me play it for you.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: They showed that they now hold around six hundred and
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: fifty thousand bitcoin that's worth roughly fifty nine billion dollars
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: depending on the day you look at it. Now, that
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: fifty nine billion dollar pile of bitcoin costs them about
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: forty eight billion. In other words, they are now sitting
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: on an unrealized gain of more than ten billion dollars.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Against that are their liabilities, which is about sixteen billion
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: dollars worth of obligations or debt versus the fifty nine
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: billion dollars worth of bitcoin. This is why they love
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: to say that their LTV or loan to value ratio
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: is about eleven percent. Now is that good or bad?
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: For context, forty to sixty percent loan to value is
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: generally considered acceptable for the stock market. So yes, eleven
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: percent is very low. It's good, and it sounds very
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: conservative if I stop the story here, it sounds like
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: there's no way anything could go wrong. But there is
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: a catch to all this. That sixteen billion dollar IOU
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: pile has a price between the interest on their debt
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: and dividends on all those preferred shares. MicroStrategy now owes
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: about eight hundred million dollars a year just to keep
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the machine running. That's over two million dollars per day.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: The question is where does micro Strategy get the cash
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: to pay dividend investors? Where does it come from? They
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: created a separate US dollar reserve, which right now is
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: about one point four billion dollars in cash, and that
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: cash pile's whole job is just to pay those dividends
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: and interest, and at today's run rate, that gives them
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: about twenty one months of coverage.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So a couple of things there within Andre's video is
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: the length in terms of how much cash reserve they
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: have to hold into these dividends. That's a long time.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Twenty one months. That's a long time with where we
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: are right now, especially if we see this rolling recession
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: so to speak, starting to resurrect itself.
• 15:50
  Speaker 8: Now.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: The key here also is this is right about the
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: time where Trump would kind of be in a position
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: where to be exiting office. So how does the political
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: sphere play into this at that time twenty one months
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: from now against where the market could be. This is
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: the kind of thing that I'm a little concerned about
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: because it starts to push a lot more of the narrative.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Because remember that we are going to have tokenization. According
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: to Jamie Diamond others out there, tokenization is going to
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: be within two years. Imagine where we will be in
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: six months, Imagine where we will be in eight, twelve,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: sixteen months. That's a big question. And when you think
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: about that, you have to consider what's an alternative to
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: micro strategy? If the narrative continues to push hard on
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: micro strategy. Here's Bernstein and they actually give you an alternative.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Take a look, you're.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Telling people to buy strategy.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: No Ethereum. I was like, I don't understand micro strategy
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: is balance.
• 16:46
  Speaker 8: She it is way too complicated for me to parse through.
• 16:49
  Speaker 8: I've decided to play it with Ethereum, and I bet o,
• 16:52
  Speaker 8: let me.
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: Go to you on it, because I don't know what
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: else I say on it.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, what else is there to say?
• 16:56
  Speaker 8: Let me give you something else. There's fifteen buys on
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: the stock, three holds, there's one cell. The twelve month
• 17:02
  Speaker 8: price target for the stock that trades one eighty two
• 17:05
  Speaker 8: right now is four hundred and seventy three dollars.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: That's ridiculous, all.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Right, So you can kind of see there's a bit
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of a grudge match going on right now in Wall
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Street to try to understand how to play the micro
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: strategy strade trade, especially if Bitcoin does go into a
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: cycle next cycle high and there's still a lot of
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: people that are looking at that. But if you look
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: at Tom Lee, he's buying another four hundred million in
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: eight bitmoin purchased one hund thirty eight thousand in eighth
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: last week. He now holds twelve billion in ethereum. This
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: is a significant position that only continues to double down
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: for Tom Lee and BM and R other things. You
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: got to look at, guys, right here, Bulls always win,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: and this is even proven in the markets. If you
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: look at the S ANDP bull and bear markets since
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: nineteen forty nine. Look at the red those are the
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: bear markets. One point seven, there's a three, here's the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: one point four. Here's a one point right there on
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the point eight, almost recent to the point one of
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: where we're setting at right now, potentially in June of
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. This is the reversal. But look at
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: these massive reversals in these markets. In twelve point three years,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: eight hundred and forty one percent is the big one.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: In five years, three hundred and forty percent, this is
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: all S and P five hundred. But point being, liquidity
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: starts to flow into the market, that of course moves
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: into risk assets. You guys know what happens from there.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: One other thing I want to hit on is a
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: video that we did yesterday with Lynn Alden, and just
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: as a reminder, guys, I know if you guys are
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: watching this, and I don't often say anything about comments
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: in our channel because everybody's got an opinion and can
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: speak freely. But I always ask for one thing, and
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: that is just respect, you know, And that's the one
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: thing that I always say to anybody is just be
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: respectful to anybody that's on our channel. Hopefully you'll do that.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: First four year soccer cycle is no longer relevant, might
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: be time to accelerate DCA. This was basically Lin's statement,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: and it was interesting because right as that was occurring,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: we started to see movement on bitcoin. The question is,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: maybe has bitcoin positioned in for a dollar cost averaging
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: going into this end of year and especially into these
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: FED rate cuts all the way into early next year.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Twenty twenty six late was Lin's call on possibly a
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: new all time high, even though Linn thought that maybe
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: that could go to twenty seven. So interesting times because
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of factors here that of course do
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: play into the FED, play into the economy, play into
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the political landscape. All of this mixes together, guys, so
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: it is very very important to keep your ear to
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the ground on all this stuff. If you are not
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: part of our baron market edge, you should be it's
• 19:50
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• 19:53
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• 19:56
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• 19:58
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• 20:01
  Speaker 1: me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.